THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 10TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 5–7 DECEMBER 2014
A Decade of The IISS Manama Dialogue: Premier Regional Security Summit in the Gulf
th
Manama Dialogue
THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 10TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 5–7 DECEMBER 2014
A Decade of The IISS Manama Dialogue: Premier Regional Security Summit in the Gulf
Contents
Foreword
Ten years of the IISS Manama Dialogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Chapter one
1st Regional Security Summit, 3–5 December 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Chapter two
2nd Regional Security Summit, 2–4 December 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Chapter three
3rd Regional Security Summit, 8–10 December 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Chapter four
4th Regional Security Summit, 7–9 December 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Chapter five
5th Regional Security Summit, 12–14 December 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Chapter six
6th Regional Security Summit, 11–13 December 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Chapter seven
7th Regional Security Summit, 3–5 December 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Chapter eight
8th Regional Security Summit, 7–9 December 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Chapter nine
9th Regional Security Summit, 6–8 December 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
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Foreword
th
Manama Dialogue
Ten years of the IISS Manama Dialogue
For all of its long history the IISS has been a facilitator of
Manama in 2004. It was clear that a gap in the defence dip-
strategic discussion and debate in the service of better public
lomatic marketplace had been filled with that first meeting,
policy. In 2002, with the first IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Asia
and within a few years we saw it confirmed as a much-
Security Summit held in Singapore, the IISS began directly
respected and needed annual summit, which we re-styled
to inspire intergovernmental defence diplomacy. Our anal-
the Manama Dialogue.
ysis of the Asia-Pacific security landscape suggested that
The Foreign Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,
it was necessary for a regional security architecture to be
Prince Saud al-Faisal, laid out at the first Dialogue his vision
developed that would invite direct dialogue between the
of a secure Gulf which would require: ‘a unified GCC, an
defence ministers of the region. While presidents, prime
integrating Yemen, a stable Iraq and a friendly Iran.’ Those
ministers, foreign ministers and finance ministers met
four conditions appeared uncertain then, and remain fleet-
regularly, defence ministers rarely consulted each other,
ing now. However, the Manama Dialogue over its first ten
and certainly not in formations that involved more than
years has played a central role in regional security consulta-
a couple of governments at any given time. Rather than
tions. It has provided a platform for ministers to announce
merely advocate the creation of an Asian defence minister
policy initiatives; an occasion for bilateral and multilateral
consultative structure, the IISS decided to create one and
meetings between government leaders; an opportunity to
encourage defence diplomacy at a multilateral level. Now,
engage all relevant countries in regional security consulta-
the Shangri-La Dialogue is seen as an integral part of Asia’s
tions simultaneously; and a place at which senior officials
regional security structures, recognised as such by govern-
could ‘off-the-record’ discuss policy options for challenges
ments, and indeed it has made it easier for defence ministers
of the day. All of these discussions engage opinion-formers
subsequently to meet in formations of their own invention.
and analysts from both the region and outside. As a result,
That success inspired the IISS to consider how it could
it is at the Manama Dialogue that the strategic pulse of the
contribute to wider national security discussions in the
region is most accurately taken.
Gulf region. Here, the ministers of the Gulf Co-operation
After ten years of development and growth the
Council (GCC) countries met regularly. However, there
Manama Dialogue in this 2014 anniversary year is now set
was no available institutional forum where they could
to grow further as a recognised informal regional security
meet with other immediate neighbours such as Iran, Iraq
institution. The Manama Dialogue has become a process,
and Yemen, or do so at the same time as consulting leaders
not just an event. Constant contact throughout the year
from other regions, including North America, Europe and
between the IISS and participating governments helps to
Asia, who had security interests in the Gulf. When large
establish the agenda and range of countries to be invited.
conferences were held involving Westerners or others on
Preparatory ‘sherpa’ meetings involving senior officials
Gulf security, these tended to be held outside the region.
strengthen the lines of communication between the IISS
The need was for a summit that convened within the
and governments and help to ensure that the broad agenda
region, giving voice to the governments and opinion-form-
is in keeping with the needs of the region. While the IISS
ers of the area, and which was inclusive, engaging all those
arranges the Manama Dialogue and chairs the plenary and
with a stake in regional security. And so it was that in late
special sessions on the broad range of topics set each year,
2003, following discussions held with the Crown Prince of
it is the delegates of the Manama Dialogue who in fact
Bahrain and consultations with other GCC states that the
shape the agenda by the nature of their interventions and
IISS began preparations for the first Gulf Dialogue held in
the priority they give to certain issues.
4 | The 10th IISS Regional Security Summit
Each Manama Dialogue has had its impact. At the 2006
the intent not just of sending certain public messages, but
Dialogue the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia delivering the key-
also to more deliberately co-ordinate and consult with col-
note speech spelled out its likely response to a confirmed
leagues from other countries. The Manama Dialogue in its
Iranian nuclear programme. The 2007 Dialogue saw the
tenth year is now at the stage when the governments partic-
first appearance of the US Secretary of Defence with a
ipating in it can frame the strategic issues they face across
very large delegation that inspired, as in subsequent years,
a number of areas, and try to work towards a more collec-
a good deal of debate as to the nature and shape of US
tive approach. The Manama Dialogue now is established
engagement with the region. In 2008, the debate on sectar-
sufficiently for it to be used as an instrument of regional
ian politics and transnational threats became more intense;
security. To that end, the IISS will continue to strive hard
in 2009 Iran’s relationship with the region was again the
to offer the most congenial environment for constructive
main theme; while in 2010 with the fullest participation
defence and security consultations to take root. We thank
ever of all relevant powers, there was a very palpable sense
the Kingdom of Bahrain for its support to this summit
of the Manama Dialogue serving as the platform for balanc-
process and to all the participating governments for their
ing the initiatives from the region, with those from outside.
active engagement.
As the Dialogue moved to its 8th and 9th editions in
Dr John Chipman cmg,
2012 and 2013, the governments attending deployed with
Director-General and Chief Executive
Ten years of the IISS Manama Dialogue | 5
6 | The 10th IISS Regional Security Summit
2004
1ST REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT, 3–5 DECEMBER
The Manama Dialogue 2004
Sheikh Salman bin Hamad bin Isa AlKhalifa, the Crown Prince of Bahrain
The rationale for the Gulf Dialogue was articulated most
such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), in pursuing
eloquently and powerfully by the backdrop against which
common interests and fending off common threats that
it was convened: an intensifying insurgency in Iraq, with
included, but were not limited to, terrorism and the prolif-
elections scheduled for January 2005; a crisis over Iran’s
eration of weapons of mass destruction. The Gulf Dialogue,
nuclear programme, put into temporary abeyance by a deal
too, he hoped, had its part to play in the formation of a
reached in late November between Tehran, London, Paris
durable regional security structure.
and Berlin; the death of Yasser Arafat and the prospect of
But security and stability, he cautioned, would also
elections for a new Palestinian leader; and, at the close of
require nimble and adaptive policies at home. Diversifying
the conference, terror attacks in Saudi Arabia that further
economies away from an over-reliance on energy sectors
underlined the prevalence of threats to Gulf security. Many
would be key to sustaining the prosperity on which social
of the diplomatic, military and intelligence practitioners
ease largely depended. Stability would be further enhanced
whose decisions bear directly on these matters, and a good
through more inclusive and consultative political systems.
number of the opinion-formers who help governments to
Bahrain had been a pioneer in this last regard. Yet the Gulf
frame policies towards them, were present in Bahrain.
consisted of ‘young states and old civilisations’, which
It was with this in mind that Sheikh Mohammed Bin
needed to move towards reform at a pace consistent with
Mubarak Al-Khalifa, Bahrain’s Deputy Prime Minister and
individual local conditions; nor should change be imposed
Foreign Minister, noted in his welcoming dinner address
from outside. Turning to the wider strategic dimension of
that the Gulf Dialogue represented a ‘unique opportunity
Gulf security, he stressed the primary importance of a sta-
for open debate and private discussion’. Drawing on the
ble Iraq, but also looked to allies in the West for ‘a more
Bahraini saying ‘we all live around the same courtyard’, he
balanced approach’ towards the Israeli–Palestinian dispute
stressed the importance of developing regional institutions,
– the cause of much animus and militancy in the region.
8 | The 1st IISS Regional Security Summit
Sheikh Mohammed Bin Mubarak Al-Khalifa, Bahrain’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs
Terrorism was so pernicious, he concluded, not only
In weighing up the magnitude of the threat of inter-
because of the risks posed to physical security, but because
national terrorism, he assessed that it was in its potential
of its tendency to fuel a climate of distrust that led to ‘bar-
destructive implications less severe than the Cold War,
riers of perception’.
which was defined by a raw sense of nuclear antagonism.
Commenting on these remarks in his capacity as leader
Yet terrorism tended to provoke a fear that that was all too
of a US Congressional Delegation – also including Senators
much in evidence, and which needed to be controlled if it
Dianne Feinstein and Lincoln Chafee – that had come to
was not to lead to rash action and poor policy. Following
Bahrain fresh from high-level meetings in Rahmallah, Tel
his speech, the Crown Prince entered into a lively debate
Aviv, Amman and Baghdad, Senator Chuck Hagel spoke
regarding Bahrain’s strategy for economic modernisation
of a moment of ‘historic and dramatic possibilities’ for Iraq
and political reform; the Israeli–Palestinian dispute and
and the wider region. If it was not to be squandered, more
what the Gulf states have to contribute to an eventual solu-
committed and visionary leadership from the US and the
tion; and on whether and in what circumstances terrorists
Gulf states would be required. The IISS Gulf Dialogue, he
ought to be engaged in a dialogue.
said, was ‘part of recommitting to a sense of urgency’ about
The first two plenaries in effect took the form of a
these matters. ‘As mighty as America is’, he went on, ‘we
discussion between officials from within and outside the
cannot field enough armies to deal with these problems’,
Gulf on the practical and political dimensions of the cam-
and a ‘new sense of diplomacy’ was required.
paign against terrorism. Maj.-Gen. Dr Rashad Muhummad
Formally opening the conference, which he described as
Al-Alimi, the Interior Minister of Yemen, argued that his
an exercise in the promotion of collective security, Sheikh
country’s experiences in this regard had broad applica-
Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa, Bahrain’s Crown
bility, combining domestic law-enforcement and fulsome
Prince and the Commander-in-Chief of its defence forces,
participation in international anti-terrorism efforts with
talked fluently about the tactical and strategic dimensions
preventative measures to reintegrate into society and the
of the counter-terrorism campaign. Tactically, for exam-
political system jihadist elements who had, perhaps, fought
ple, the manpower of the terrorist networks would have to
the Soviet occupation in Afghanistan and were prone to
be captured or killed; strategically, it was vital to prevent
sympathise with other radical causes.
further recruitment of terrorists through the resolution
Iraq’s National Security Advisor, Dr Kassim Daoud,
of political conflicts that spawn radicalism. It was just as
turned his attention to the importance of fostering con-
important, in religious terms, that ‘outcasts’ should not be
sultative democracy in efforts to stamp out the Iraqi
allowed to ‘define what it is to be a Muslim’: extremism
insurgency. In the debate that followed, he gave a detailed
would have to be combated through the active advance-
account of technical preparations for January’s elections,
ment of a positive ‘counter-idea’.
arguing that there were no practical grounds, nor any The Manama Dialogue 2004 | 9
US Senator Chuck Hagel
legal justifications, for further delay to a timetable that was
was in all its specifics not necessarily applicable to the pre-
well-established and formally prescribed. He described the
cise circumstances of the Gulf, but in setting it out he felt it
security situation inside Iraq by noting that 15 of 18 prov-
did provide a useful example of the scope and forms of col-
inces were essentially stable, and went on to comment on
lective and individual action which might be contemplated
the steady progress being made by Iraq’s own security
by Gulf states. Domestically, Singapore’s strategy involved
forces. Some of Daoud’s conclusions were challenged in a
capacity-building and the facilitation of interagency coor-
spirited way by another Iraqi present at the conference, but
dination. Abroad, it comprised multilateral cooperation on
the National Security Adviser welcomed the fact that it was
maritime security, intelligence exchanges and data collec-
now possible for a minister of state to be held to account by
tion, and a dialogue between law-enforcement and police
a private Iraqi citizen in such a public manner.
agencies throughout Southeast Asia.
Singapore, as a country that has been a target of the
A British perspective was provided by Sir Nigel
al-Qaeda affiliate Jemaah Islamiah, has evolved a com-
Sheinwald, Foreign Policy Adviser to the Prime Minister
prehensive counter-terrorism strategy. Dr Tony Tan Keng
and Head of the Overseas and Defence Secretariat of the
Yam, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister and Coordinating
UK Cabinet Office. British counter-terrorism policy, he
Minister for Security and Defence, argued that this strategy
said, was guided by the need to pursue terrorist at the
(l–r) Maj.-Gen. Dr Rashad Muhammad AlAlimi, Yemen’s Interior Minister; National Security Advisor of Iraq, Dr Kassim Daoud; and IISS Director Dr John Chipman
10 | The 1st IISS Regional Security Summit
Dr Tony Tan Keng Yam, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister and Coordinating Minister for Security and Defence
operational level; protect the homeland, for example
The conference then divided into three simultaneous
through enhancing aviation security; prepare for the con-
break-out groups. The first focused on regional border
sequences of possible attacks; and prevent the rise of new
controls and produced a lively and constructive discus-
generation of terrorists by addressing terrorism’s underly-
sion, chaired by Ellen Laipson, President and CEO of
ing causes.
The Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington DC. The
Stephen Hadley, US National Security Advisor-
discussion embraced a diverse range of issues, includ-
designate, characterised US policy towards the region as
ing technical considerations, trade-offs between security
both practical and idealistic. Its immediate focus would
and commerce, and the social dimensions of counter-ter-
be to confront terrorists and the states that support them;
rorism policy. There was a consensus that while formal
its long-term objective was to advance freedom and
boundary disputes in the Gulf had been substantially
democracy. The lack of participatory and accountable gov-
resolved, enforcing borders remained a serious problem.
ernment was linked to poverty and at the heart of many of
Some national officials aspired to ‘total security’, includ-
the region’s problems. The difficulties of the Middle East,
ing robust post-entry monitoring and inter-governmental
moreover, were the result of faulty policies rather than an
data-sharing, in the GCC. Discussants also cautioned that
inevitable product of cultural and religious impulses and
the GCC was not amenable to a European Union-type solu-
traits. A striking political transformation was now being
tion of open internal borders, especially because common
achieved in Afghanistan and Iraq.
tribal areas often traversed legal borders, rendering their
Hadley dwelt at length on the Israeli–Palestinian con-
strict enforcement all the more important. Border security
flict, reaffirming Washington’s commitment to a two-state
enforcement, it was noted, would be eased by more effec-
solution, and stressing that it stood ready, along with the
tive economic policies that kept populations relatively
EU and multilateral financial institutions, to work with a
sedentary. Nevertheless, officials from the region acknowl-
reforming and accountable Palestinian leadership. Israel
edged that physical restrictions were only a single limited
would have to support the emergence of a viable Palestinian
ingredient of counter-terrorism, given the recruiting func-
state. Hadley noted that the Gaza pullout amounted to an
tion that the internet and indigenous groupings performed.
important ‘down-payment’ on that prospect. Yet Israel also
Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa region were identi-
needed to help by facilitating the forthcoming Palestinian
fied as sources of terrorists, and several proactive remedies
elections, ensuring greater freedom of movement and ceas-
were put forward for stopping them. These included the
ing further settlement activity in the occupied territories.
use of more advanced monitoring and tracking technology;
In his concluding remarks, Hadley said in referring to the
improved training for border troops; and close military and
Gulf Dialogue: ‘I hope it becomes a permanent feature of
law-enforcement coordination among GCC countries. The
the regional scene’.
need to secure Iraq’s border, especially jihadist infiltration The Manama Dialogue 2004 | 11
Break-out group one: Border Controls
routes from Syria, drew comment. But Iran’s border chal-
the discussion focused on efforts to resolve the Iranian
lenges emerged as arguably the most acute in the region, in
nuclear issue, especially negotiations between Iran and
light of the large number of countries that are contiguous
the EU-3 scheduled to begin in mid-December 2004. This
with it and their lack of political stability.
included an exploration of different potential ‘objective
The second break-out group, on counter-prolifera-
guarantees’ that might serve to demonstrate that Iran’s
tion challenges, was chaired by Thérèse Delpech, IISS
nuclear programme was intended for purely peaceful
Council Member and Senior Research Fellow at the
purposes, and a consideration of how regional security
Center for International Studies in Paris. Presentations
discussions and arrangements could be part of a final
were made by William Ehrman, Chairman of the UK
diplomatic agreement. In addition, the group discussed
Joint
Hossein
broader measures to combat proliferation, including the
Mousavian, Foreign Policy Chairman of the Supreme
importance of effective domestic controls over sensitive
National Security Council of Iran; Senator Robert Hill,
materials and equipment, and proposals to strengthen
Australian Minister for Defence; and Shigeru Nakamura,
international norms and treaties to prevent the spread of
Director General of the Intelligence and Analysis Service
nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and their deliv-
of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Much of
ery vehicles. An issue of particular importance discussed
Intelligence
Committee; Ambassador
(l–r) General John Abizaid, Commanderin-Chief, US Central Command; Dr Kassim Daoud, Iraq’s National Security Advisor; and General Sir Michael Walker GCB, CMG, CBE, ADC Gen, Chief of the UK Defence Staff
12 | The 1st IISS Regional Security Summit
Stephen Hadley, US National Security Advisor-designate
by the group was the danger that non-state actors might
military presence, and denial of ‘safe haven’ to insurgents,
seek to acquire and use biological weapons.
were not sufficient to bring stability to troubled coun-
The challenges of dealing with terrorism and insur-
tries such as Iraq and Afghanistan. It was important that
gency, particularly in Iraq, dominated a break-out group
national security forces were able to assume control for
on ‘Military Trends and New Security Threats’. The ses-
elections to be successful and for domestic political resolu-
sion was chaired by General Sir Michael Walker, Chief
tions to be reached. The outside world needed to provide
of the UK Defence Staff, and included among its speak-
not just mili tary support, but political, economic and other
ers General John Abizaid, Commander, US Central
civil assistance. A European delegate expressed the view
Command; Iraqi National Security Advisor Dr Kassim
that a strong US role was required to bring stability to the
Daoud; Admiral Bernard Merveilleux du Vignaux of the
world’s crises, because America’s partners could not by
General Staff Headquarters of France; and Major General
themselves ‘keep the lid on the cooking pot’.
Mike Hindmarsh, Special Operations Commander of the Australian defence forces.
The third plenary, which was introduced by Sheikh Mohammed Bin Mubarak Al-Khalifa, considered the
While approaches to counter-terrorism and counter-
impact of political and economic reform on Gulf security.
insurgency were the primary topic, other regional threats
In his presentation, Yousuf bin Alawi bin Abdulla, the
such as nuclear proliferation were also mentioned. Armed
Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs of Oman, concen-
forces were adjusting themselves to deal with new, glo-
trated exclusively on the contribution of economic policy
balised threats. The need for good intelligence, and for
to stability. Extremism and terrorism, he felt, would best
coordination at every level in both the gathering and
be fought through economic development and increased
sharing of information, was stressed by several delegates.
prosperity. Deeper and wider trade relations with pow-
It was stated that intelligence on Iraqi insurgents had
ers outside the region would be crucial to this effort. The
improved considerably since the end of the combat phase
Foreign Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister of Qatar,
of the war in April 2003, but that there was still room for
Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabber Al Thani, argued that
improvement.
neglect of economic and political reform would present
The nature and strategy of the Iraqi insurgency was
the region with major challenges. Change should not be
debated. Several delegates believed the media was giving
imposed from outside, he said, but driven organically by
an unbalanced – even a distorted – picture of Iraq, and
conviction and consensus. While this implied variations
regional media in particular were not adequately portray-
in the speed of progress, there was a need for a timetable
ing the true nature of the insurgents. One delegate referred
for action and clarification of objectives. In the discussions
to a ‘huge disconnect’ between media coverage and reality.
that followed, a number of delegates questioned whether
A further strong theme of the discussion was that coalition
ruling elites in the region would in fact be willing to cede The Manama Dialogue 2004 | 13
Prince Saud Al-Faisal, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
powers as part of a programme of political reform; others
argued that Iran had a right to security, and in this regard
argued that the emergence of greater pluralism would be
Israel’s advanced nuclear capabilities were a source of par-
frustrated by an intolerance of political parties who might
ticular concern. Ali Reza Moayeri, Iran’s Deputy Foreign
represent sections of society.
Minister for Research, speaking on behalf of Foreign
The final plenary was devoted to the crafting of new
Minister Kamal Kharrazi, expressed his hope that the Gulf
frameworks for regional security. Leading off the discus-
Dialogue would ‘contribute to the promotion of peace
sion, Prince Saud Al Faisal, Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia,
and security through open exchange of ideas’. Describing
described this session as providing a ‘timely opportunity to
the Gulf as an object of competition between great pow-
exchange views on a current and important topic’. Turning
ers, whose interventions had detracted from the sum of
to the GCC states, he called for greater efforts to enhance
regional security, he advanced a plan for a ‘Persian Gulf
defence capabilities in an integrated manner, including
Collective Security Framework’. All states of the region
exploring the scope for joint command-and-control mecha-
would participate in it, and none would form new alliances
nisms and logistical arrangements. GCC states that had
with non-members. A ‘Regional Security Assembly’ would
defence or economic agreements with third parties should
be estab lished, which would handle pacts and treaties
not give these precedence over accords with fellow mem-
while avoiding interference in the internal affairs of mem-
bers; there was a need to uphold the collective spirit and
ber states. It would define the goals of regional interaction,
combined bargaining power of the GCC. In the same vein,
and its mandate would include crafting policies to combat
he argued for the expansion of the GCC to include Yemen.
terrorism and its causes, and to pursue a Middle East free
The GCC’s main regional priority in the short term was
of weapons of mass destruction. In the question and answer
to define its relations with Iraq and Iran. As far as former
session, attention focused in particular on the criteria that
was concerned, the recent Kuwait–Iraq accord provided a
Yemen would have to fulfil in order to be admitted to the
model for how the GCC as a whole might come into asso-
GCC. Other presentations on this panel were given by
ciation with Baghdad. Iran, meanwhile, needed to build
Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, Diplomatic Adviser to the
relations in the region on the basis of a policy of non-
President of France, and Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad
interference, and through more active participation in the
Al-Sabah, President of the National Security Bureau of
campaign against terrorism. Yet Prince Saud Al Faisal also
Kuwait.
14 | The 1st IISS Regional Security Summit
Read a more detailed report online
2005
2ND REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT, 2–4 DECEMBER
The Manama Dialogue 2005
His Majesty King Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa
An array of senior figures from 19 countries attended the
be discussed both publicly and privately, in a unique
second IISS Regional Security Summit, The Gulf Dialogue,
format that would be difficult for participating govern-
in Bahrain from 2–4 December 2005.
ments to organise for themselves.
There was intense discussion about counter-terrorism,
To give the discussion more enduring form and value
on means to deal with other regional security issues and, in
– and in response to requests from delegates – the IISS
particular, about Iraq and the relationships between Arab
will circulate in early 2006 a substantial report on the Gulf
states and Iran. The conference featured vigorous debate
Dialogue’s content and lessons. (The report will be much
in the plenary sessions and break-out groups. Officials
longer and will do better justice to interventions, both from
engaged in many private bilateral meetings and delegation
the podium and from the floor, than is possible in the lim-
leaders also attended a multilateral lunch.
ited space of this Newsletter.)
Dr John Chipman, IISS Director, said in his opening
Delegations, with leaders of cabinet rank or sen-
remarks that the summit was designed to bring together
ior level, attended from the six GCC members: Bahrain,
the national security establishments of Gulf Cooperation
Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Council (GCC) members, Yemen, Iraq and Iran and key
Emirates; three important regional states: Iran, Iraq and
outside powers that had a role to play in Gulf security.
Yemen; and ten non-regional countries: Australia, China,
The conference, held in the Ritz-Carlton Hotel, built on the success of the first Gulf Dialogue, held in the
France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, Singapore, the United Kingdom and the United States.
same place a year earlier, as well as on that of the Asia
The King of Bahrain, His Majesty King Hamad Bin Isa
Security Conference, the Shangri-La Dialogue, convened
Al Khalifa, welcomed delegation leaders at his palace. All
annually by the IISS in Singapore. The Dialogues pro-
delegates were entertained at a reception and dinner by
vide an informal setting in which security issues can
the Crown Prince and Commander-in-Chief of the Bahrain
16 | The 2nd IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Sheikh Ghazi Al Yawer, one of Iraq’s two Vice Presidents; and Frances Fragos Townsend, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counter-terrorism
Defence Force, His Highness Sheikh Salman Bin Hamad
out an agenda for co-operative action by regional countries
Bin Isa Al Khalifa.
on two levels: practical measures such as sharing informa-
The King, in remarks to the delegation leaders, stressed
tion, securing borders and stopping the flow of terrorists’
the importance of ‘information sharing through mean-
funds; and on four fundamental policy issues: confronting
ingful dialogue’ in defeating terrorism which, he said,
the ideology of violent extremism, halting state sponsor-
‘threatens freedom as it threatens life itself’.
ship of terrorism, supporting the development of a stable
The need for such dialogue was emphasised by Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s Minister of Foreign
and peaceful Iraq, and helping the Palestinian Authority to follow the ‘road map’ towards peace with Israel.
Affairs, in remarks at the opening dinner. ‘In the past we
The second plenary featured regional, European
have not had a forum that brings together interested parties
and Asian views on ‘Perspectives on GCC International
to address both individual issues and strategic challenges
Security Relationships’. Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jaber
in a detailed yet frank manner. I believe the Gulf Dialogue
Al Thani, Qatar’s Foreign Minister and First Deputy Prime
can be such a forum’.
Minister, noted the many challenges facing GCC states,
Iraq was inevitably a recurrent theme of the Dialogue. Sheikh Ghazi Al Yawer, one of its two vice-presidents, said
including establishing political and economic re-form and fighting terrorism in a globalised world.
in a keynote address at the opening dinner he hoped the
Michèle Alliot-Marie, France’s Defence Minister, said
elections due in December would create a balanced par-
that to many people, the Gulf appeared to be the ‘exclusive
liament that would allow the political process to develop
preserve of the United States’. She enumerated a number of
further. Iraq faced abnormal and difficult conditions,
ways in which France and Europe could contribute to the
including terrorism, the influence of regional states, the
region’s security, including crisis management tools such
heritage of injustice under the former regime and the emi-
as European Union battlegroups and a gendarmerie force.
gration of skilled people. Foreign forces, he said, would
Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister, Professor S.
continue to be needed (subject to signature of a status-of-
Jayakumar, who is also Co-ordinating Minister for National
forces agreement), while Iraq’s militias must be disbanded
Security, urged countries fighting terrorism to look beyond
and integrated into the security forces.
the ‘operational aspects’. While it was important to tighten
The US delegation was led by Frances Fragos Townsend,
aviation and maritime security and to disrupt terrorist
Assistant to President George W. Bush for Homeland
cells, Professor Jayakumar said: ‘If we do not tackle ideo-
Security and Counter-terrorism. Addressing the first ple-
logical aspects, we are only tackling half the problem’.
nary session on ‘The US and Regional Security’, she said
Only Muslims could do this, since non-Muslims had no
international terrorist attacks were the work of a ‘diabolical
locus standi. Muslim leaders in Southeast Asia were mak-
enemy’, fuelled by an ideology that distorted Islam. She set
ing efforts in this direction. The Manama Dialogue 2005 | 17
(l–r): Sheikh Ghazi Al Yawer, one of Iraq’s two Vice Presidents; IISS Director Dr John Chipman; and Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s Minster of Foreign Affairs
Sheikh Sabah Khalid Al Hamad Al Sabah, President of
of hydrocarbons and, in some cases, a strategic interest in
the National Security Bureau, Kuwait, picked up this theme
assured naval access. Conflict in Iraq and increasing energy
in the third plenary session, ‘The Nature of the Regional
demand, particularly from China and India, had accentu-
Terrorism Challenge’. ‘Many countries have been seared
ated the critical importance of access. However, maritime
by the flames of terrorism’, he noted before declaring that
crime, notably piracy and trafficking, together with the
‘Islam is innocent of such activities’. He listed measures
spectre of maritime terrorism, increasingly threatened to
Kuwait had adopted, in education, religious training and
undermine freedom of maritime communication.
democratic and social reforms, to stop young people from being led towards extremism.
The increased incidence of piracy posed a particularly serious threat to shipping, contributing to concerns that esca-
The Interior Minister of Yemen, Maj.-Gen. Dr Rashad
lating maritime crime was entrenching a lawless environment
Al Alimi, spoke of his country as the ‘strategic back garden
in which the potential for terrorism at sea was growing. This
of this area’, and said it needed stronger co-operation with
threat was especially pronounced in the northern Gulf close
GCC members in order to halt terrorism, organised crime
to Iraq, where unresolved territorial disputes may allow for
and arms trafficking, so that Yemen would not be used as a
the exploitation of gaps in security coverage.
safe haven. He agreed with suggestions for heightened coordination, including in the exchange of information.
The US in particular was concerned that terrorist adversaries inspired by al-Qaeda would exploit regional waters
On Saturday afternoon the conference split into three
to move personnel, weapons and finances and use the sea
break-out groups, under the rules of which no participant’s
as a vector of asymmetric attack against US vessels and
remarks can be publicly quoted.
those of friendly states. In response, the US and UK navies
A discussion on ‘Maritime Security in the Region’
were seeking to heighten co-ordination with regional and
was chaired by Admiral Jacques Lanxade, former Chief
international partners, notably in terms of intelligence-
of Defence Staff in France. Opening remarks were given
sharing aimed at creating a more comprehensive and
by Vice Admiral Patrick Walsh, Commander of US Naval
accurate regional maritime picture.
Forces, Central Command, and Commander of the US Fifth
At the same time, more conventional maritime security
Fleet, Admiral Sir James Burnell-Nugent, Commander-in-
concerns persisted. Western powers with naval forces in the
Chief Fleet, UK Royal Navy and Maj.-Gen. Ahmad Yousef
Gulf, as well as Arab states in the region, were concerned
Al Mulla, Chief of Naval Forces, Kuwait.
over Iran’s potential maritime response if international
The break-out group heard that the Gulf and the west-
sanctions were imposed owing to its nuclear programme,
ern Indian Ocean were a ‘maritime crossroads’, where
and accidental naval clashes were a worrying possibil-
maintaining freedom of sea communication was vital both
ity. Some regional states feared a naval arms race. In this
for littoral states and for extra-regional stakeholders. The
unstable maritime environment, bilateral confidence-
latter had a huge economic interest in the unimpeded flow
building exchanges between major naval players would
18 | The 2nd IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jaber Al Thani, Qatar’s Foreign Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister; and France’s Minister of Defence, Michèle Alliot-Marie
be invaluable. However, inter-state tensions seemed likely
Iran’s nuclear programme, clandestine support for terror-
to rule out an over-arching multilateral regional security
ism and a desire to have a controlling hand in Iraq, Arab
arrangement in the foreseeable future.
participants seemed more anxious over Iran’s ascendant
A break-out group on ‘Regional Military Strategies
power. Iranian participants, however, saw the problem as
and Counter-terrorism Challenges’ was chaired by Field
groundless and best addressed by direct contacts between
Marshal The Lord Inge, former UK Chief of Defence Staff.
Iran and regional actors, without the participation of
Introductory remarks were made by Lt-Gen. Fahd Al Amir,
Europe or the US.
Chief of Staff of the Kuwait Armed Forces, and Maj.-Gen. Mohammed Bin Faisal Abo Sak, Saudi National Guard.
A fourth challenge revolved around the domestic institutions of regional states. Some saw the need for more
The group heard that the security challenges to the
democracy and popular legitimacy, others for integrating
region had altered considerably over the past decade. State
the region into the global marketplace of ideas and com-
weakness and transnational terrorism were at the apex
merce, and still others for shoring up state security in the
of security concerns. Consequently, strategies adopted
face of untethered communications, porous borders, and
by regional actors were undergoing a period of reflection,
political violence.
debate and change. Participants concentrated on five issues.
Finally, the region was challenged by external actors:
Instability in Iraq posed the most immediate security
many wanted a responsible role for the US but few were
challenge. Clashing forces challenged a fledgling govern-
happy with the status quo. Many welcomed Europe’s partic-
ment still in transition. Foreign forces were at once part
ipation but were sceptical about how vibrant that role would
of the solution and the problem in the eyes of Gulf states,
be, while others were interested in linkages with rising
which agreed on the objective but not necessarily the
Asian powers, especially China and India as well as Japan.
means of stabilising Iraq. No-one expected an early end to Iraq’s insurgency and sectarian political violence.
Solutions to handling these diverse – and diversely viewed – challenges centred on either new security struc-
A second challenge was posed by terrorism. Whereas
tures or specific actions. Many favoured a broader Gulf
most saw this as a vital common threat, group members
regional forum linking the six GCC states with Iraq, Iran,
differed on specific threats or remedies. Clearly required
Yemen and perhaps Jordan. Others worried that inclusiv-
was a multi-faceted set of national and regional policies,
ity was premature and that like-minded nations ought to
in which military intervention was only one policy instru-
coalesce around steps to stabilise Iraq and to stem terror-
ment. There could be wider co-operation among Muslims
ism. Others preferred dealing with specific issues and put a
on confronting the false narratives of those using a dis-
premium on bilateral relations, from intelligence sharing to
torted version of Islam to justify indiscriminate killing.
combined military exercises. Virtually everyone agreed on
Iran’s growing influence and regional role posed a third challenge. Whereas external participants worried over
the value of the IISS Gulf Dialogue for improving understanding and fashioning solutions. The Manama Dialogue 2005 | 19
(l–r): Maj.-Gen. Dr Rashad Al Alimi, Yemen’s Interior Minister; President, Kuwait’s National Security Bureau, Sheikh Sabah Khalid Al Hamad Al Sabah; and Professor S. Jayakumar, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister, Co-ordinating Minister for National Security and Minister for Law
A third break-out group discussed ‘Gulf Cooperation Council Relations with Iran and Iraq: Energy Security
the region might be heading towards another extended period of instability.
and Defence Implications’. It was chaired by Georg
The group discussed the sources of this potential insta-
Boomgarden, Secretary of State in Germany’s Ministry of
bility. The belligerent rhetoric that some states chose to
Foreign Affairs, and introductory remarks were given by
deploy in regional diplomacy was identified as a barrier
Yousuf Bin Alawi Bin Abdulla, Minister Responsible for
to good relations. However, participants from the GCC
Foreign Affairs, Oman; Dr Abbas Maleki, Head of Iran’s
states identified Iranian actions and possible motives as
International Institute for Caspian Studies; and Labid
the major source of concern. The nuclear issue dominated
Majeed Abbawi, Under Secretary for Policy Planning in the
their thoughts with Iran’s approach to negotiations over
Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
the issue raising fears of a US military strike. In addition,
The discussion began with participants agreeing on the global importance of the Gulf region for the stability and
Iran’s influence and motives in Iraq were seen as a potential source of instability.
growth of the world economy. Against this background,
The break-out group considered a range of confidence-
the aftermath of regime change in Iraq and the conflict that
building measures that could be undertaken to reduce
Iran was currently engaged in with the international com-
mistrust and to build stability. These should take the form
munity over its nuclear programme gave rise to fears that
of a continued dialogue between regional states on the
BREAK-OUT GROUP I: Maritime Security in the Region
(l–r): Admiral Sir James Burnell-Nugent, C-in-C Fleet, UK; Vice Admiral Patrick Walsh, Commander, US Naval Forces, Central Command and Commander, US Fifth Fleet; and Maj.-Gen. Ahmad Yousef Al-Mulla, Kuwait’s Chief of Naval Forces. The group was chaired by Admiral (Retd) Jacques Lanxade, former Chief of Defence Staff, France
20 | The 2nd IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Dr John Reid MP, UK Secretary of State for Defence; and Abdul Karim Al Anazi, Iraq’s Minister of State for National Security Affairs
pressing issues of mutual defence, energy security and pro-
Situation in Iraq’, Abdul Karim Al Anazi, Iraq’s Minister
liferation. Such a dialogue should be aimed at balancing
of State for National Security Affairs, said Iraq needed
the interests of individual states with those of the region as
international and regional support to fight the threat of
a whole. It was suggested that in addition to the European
terrorism, which was not a national but a regional phenom-
Union and the US, Pakistan and India should be brought in
enon. He attacked the media – and he was not the first at
as dialogue partners. Energy security, it was argued, would
the Dialogue to do so – for what, in his view, was the provi-
only come from continuing discussion between producers
sion of support to terrorism through coverage in the press
and consumers to regulate demand. Ultimately, energy
and on satellite television.
security could not be exclusive to individual states but was, by its very nature, the work of multilateral institutions.
Dr John Reid, Secretary of State for Defence of the UK, quoted Napoleon in arguing that endurance was required
The group concluded that long-term stability in the
to prevail in the struggle against terrorism in Iraq. The
Gulf would only be achieved when states put aside military
effort would require not just force, but aid, trade, political
and political rivalries and concentrated on the economic
will and an understanding that not all opponents ‘should
and social development of their own populations.
be lumped together under the heading of international ter-
On Sunday, attention continued to be focused on Iraq
rorism’. Many people, he said, had genuine grievances and
and Iran. In the fourth plenary session, ‘Perspectives on the
felt let down by unfulfilled promises. Progress was being
BREAK-OUT GROUP II: Regional Military Strategies and CT Challenges
(l–r): Field Marshal Lord Inge KG GCB DL, former Chief of Defence Staff, UK; Lt-Gen. Fahd Al Amir, Chief of Staff of the Kuwaiti Armed Forces; and Maj.-Gen. Mohammed Bin Faisal Abo Sak of the Saudi National Guard
The Manama Dialogue 2005 | 21
Mohamed Reza Bagheri, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister
(l–r): Ambassador Chinmaya Gharekhan, India’s Special Envoy for West Asia; IISS Director Dr John Chipman; Mikhail Margelov, Head of the Russian Federation Council’s Foreign Affairs Committee; and Ambassador Wang Shijie, China’s Special Envoy to the Middle East
made in Iraq, in building democracy, in restoring basic ser-
had a vital stake in stability in the Gulf and believed a strong
vices, in the economy and in training the security forces.
web of international links would best ensure regional secu-
But there would still be challenges. ‘As things get better,
rity. Ambassador Wang Shijie, China’s Special Envoy for
sometimes the activities of the terrorists will get worse’.
the Middle East, said China favoured an international con-
In the fifth plenary session, ‘Regional Relations: Iran
vention to enhance cooperation against terrorism. Mikhail
and Iraq’, Mohamed Reza Bagheri, Iran’s Deputy Foreign
Margelov, Head of the Russian Federation Council’s
Minister, said regional countries should set up a structure
Foreign Affairs Committee, noted that the establishment of
that would allow security to be ‘indigenised’. The Persian
a security structure in the Gulf was in a ‘very preliminary
Gulf should be free of weapons of mass destruction: Iran
stage’ and that there was not unanimity among regional
was committed to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
states. Moves such as sharing intelligence data would be
and the legal obligations it entailed. Iraq, he said, could be
helpful steps.
a pillar of peace and security in the region.
In conclusion, Dr Chipman paid tribute to the
In the sixth and final plenary, ‘Regional Security and
Kingdom of Bahrain for its support for the Dialogue and
International Cooperation’, speakers from three external
to the IISS staff who took part in its organisation. He
powers presented their views. Ambassador Chinmaya
announced that the next Gulf Dialogue would be held on
Gharekhan, India’s Special Envoy for West Asia, said India
8–10 December 2006.
BREAK-OUT GROUP III: GCC Relations with Iraq and Iran: Energy Security and Defence Implications
(l–r): Labid Majeed Abbawi, Under Secretary for Policy Planning in Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Georg Boomgarden, Secretary of State in Germany’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and Dr Abbas Maleki, Head of the International Institute for Caspian Studies, Iran
22 | The 2nd IISS Regional Security Summit
Read a more detailed report online
2006
3RD REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT, 8–10 DECEMBER
The Manama Dialogue 2006
Prince Muqrin Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Chief of General Intelligence, Saudi Arabia
The pressing security challenges of the Gulf and its sur-
about Iran’s nuclear programme; the Israel–Palestine
rounding region were intensively addressed at the 3rd IISS
dispute; the travails of Lebanon; the threat of extrem-
Regional Security Summit, The Manama Dialogue, held in
ist terrorism; sectarian divisions; and the challenges of
Bahrain from 8–10 December 2006.
Afghanistan. Speakers noted the growing importance of
At the close of the Dialogue, Dr John Chipman,
energy security and maritime security as issues for the
IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, said it had
region, as well as the continuing need for an overarching
demonstrated the value of creating an informal, inclu-
security apparatus that would help regional countries to
sive mechanism for discussing regional security issues.
address common issues.
Delegation leaders had requested that the IISS develop
The worsening violence in Iraq was a particular focus,
and institutionalise the Dialogue. He warmly thanked the
with the Dialogue commencing two days after the publica-
Kingdom of Bahrain for its commitment to and support for
tion in Washington of the report of the Iraq Study Group
the Summit.
(ISG), comprising eminent former US officials led by James
Delegates were addressed at a dinner at King Hamad’s
Baker and Lee Hamilton, who recommended significant
palace by Sheikh Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa,
and controversial shifts in US policy. The Dialogue was
the Crown Prince, who praised the Manama Dialogue
addressed by Iraq’s national security adviser, its interior
and provided a clear and frank assessment of regional
and foreign ministers, as well as a former defence minister.
security issues.
It was clear that Baghdad’s reaction to the report was far
The topics discussed by the Crown Prince and other
from enthusiastic.
speakers at the Dialogue underlined the multiplicity of
The Dialogue was attended by ministers, senior offi-
problems facing the region and the need for high-level dis-
cials and military officers from 22 countries, including
cussions about them: the troubles of Iraq; apprehensions
Pakistan for the first time. As well as the six states of
24 | The 3rd IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): William Cohen, former US Secretary of Defense; and Richard Armitage, former US Deputy Secretary of State
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iran, Iraq and
the Prince later qualified this remark by saying he did not
Yemen, there was strong representation from the Asia-
believe American forces should withdraw from Iraq yet.
Pacific region, Europe and North America. For example,
Saudi Arabia was investing heavily in border security in
India and Japan were represented by their national security
order to prevent infiltration into Iraq.
advisers, Australia and Turkey by their defence ministers and Sweden by its newly-appointed foreign minister, Carl
First Plenary Session: The United States and the region
Bildt, a member of the IISS Council.
The first plenary session, on ‘The United States and the Re-
Chipman told the opening dinner: ‘Precisely because
gion’, was addressed by William Cohen, former Defense
this in an informal institution, a good deal of real diplo-
Secretary and Senator, and now Chairman and Chief Ex-
macy can happen during its course.’ As at the Shangri-La
ecutive Officer of the Cohen Group, and Richard Armit-
Dialogue, the IISS Asia Security Summit held annually in
age, former Deputy Secretary of State and now President
Singapore, delegations took the opportunity to hold bilat-
of Armitage International. Though a strong delegation of
eral or multilateral meetings over lunch or dinner, as well
US officials and military officers attended the Dialogue, no
as to attend the plenary and break-out sessions.
serving member of the Bush administration was able to ad-
The keynote speaker to the opening dinner was Prince
dress delegates in plenary session.
Muqrin Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s Chief of
Cohen noted that the mood had changed in the United
General Intelligence. Introducing him, Professor François
States since the invasion of Iraq, which President George
Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS Council, remarked that
W. Bush had undertaken without much domestic chal-
the Prince’s position was not one that normally lent itself
lenge. It was clear that things had not gone as he had
to the public expression of opinions. However, Prince
planned. Following the November 2006 Congressional
Muqrin delivered a frank account of regional challenges,
elections, there was a short window of perhaps four or
focusing first on Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons,
five months to formulate a new US policy before the issue
which he described as a ‘dangerous threat’ to regional
became engulfed and fragmented by the politics of the
security because proliferation by others would lead mod-
2008 presidential election.
erate countries to initiate nuclear programmes. At the root
As to the elements of a possible policy, Cohen asserted
of this problem, he said, was the tension caused by the
that there was no military solution, but that support must
Palestinian issue, and he noted that King Abdullah’s 2002
be given to a unified state. However, the view that the
peace plan still provided a basis for resolution. Sectarian
new US focus should be on training Iraqi security forces
violence and terrorism in Iraq was affecting regional
would be challenged by some in Washington. Cohen
security. Other countries needed to help Iraq without
supported engagement with Iran, provided this had the
interfering in its internal affairs. The presence of foreign
backing, through the United Nations Security Council, of
forces would help fuel instability and terrorism – though
China and Russia. The Manama Dialogue 2006 | 25
(l–r): Manouchehr Mottaki, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Iran; and Hoshyar Zebari, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Iraq
Armitage said the Bush administration was trying to
on more responsibilities, Cohen said that US criticism of
work out an overall regional policy rather than treating
Bush’s approach would diminish if there were signs of
the issues separately as it had before. America was nor-
measurable progress.
mally an exporter of hope and enthusiasm, but since the 11 September 2001 attacks had exported fear and anger.
Second Plenary Session: Regional security perceptions
It was now time to step away from this mood, and to try
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki was the
to be more open and welcoming. It was unfair to place
first of three foreign ministers to address the second
the same expectations of democracy on Iraqis as on post-
plenary session on ‘Regional Security Perceptions’. He
war Germany and Japan, both of which had professional
called for collective security arrangements among re-
administrators and a democratic heritage. Armitage
gional countries, without intervention by foreign forces.
reminded delegates that success in Afghanistan had to
On Iran’s nuclear programme, he said it was pursuing its
be achieved, or else the world would be ‘in a whole new
‘indisputable rights only within the framework of the Nu-
ball game’.
clear Non-Proliferation Treaty’. The issue could be solved
Of the questioners, Lord (Charles) Powell, former
through dialogue and there was no basis for involving
adviser to Margaret Thatcher as UK Prime Minister, was
the UN Security Council. Iran was willing to remove any
dismissive of the ISG report as unrelated to the real situa-
ambiguity on the issue and had already done much to do
tion and as a ‘plan for getting the President out of trouble’.
so. On Iraq, Mottaki stated that it was vital that foreign
To Powell, the implication was that the United States
troops be pulled out, and Iran was ready to help the Unit-
did not have the ability to see things through to the end.
ed States to do so.
Another challenge to US policy came from Sir Malcolm
Answering questions, Mottaki insisted that his coun-
Rifkind, former UK Foreign Secretary and Defence
try’s nuclear programme was peaceful and that it was not
Secretary. He suggested that the US should offer full nor-
seeking to make weapons. All its activities were moni-
malisation of bilateral relations to Iran.
tored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Armitage agreed that there were ‘lots of reasons to sit down with Iran’, which wanted ‘correct’ relations with
and there was no evidence of divergence from their peaceful purpose.
Washington. Cohen said there was a ‘grand bargain’ to be
Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari agreed that Iraq’s
struck with Iran, but bemoaned the current American lack
difficulties in restoring stability – for which he blamed
of leverage to achieve this. ‘They are reaping the benefit of
Saddam’s ‘henchmen’ – were affecting its neighbours. He
our lack of success’, he said. Both speakers agreed that the
saw it as one of five key regional security issues, the others
ISG was a result of US politics. While Armitage asserted
being rising sectarianism, the spread of nuclear weapons,
that it was common sense for the Iraqi government to take
terrorism and the lack of a regional security system.
26 | The 3rd IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain; and Sheikh Mohammed Al Abdallah Al Sabah, Director of the Citizens Services and Governmental Bodies Assessment Agency, Kuwait
Like Cohen and Armitage, Zebari argued that the ISG
Third Plenary Session: Asia’s role in the region
was mostly to do with US politics. Iraqis, having begun
In the third plenary session, on ‘Asia’s Role in the Region’,
their political process with international support, would
delegates heard from senior officials from India, Japan and
fiercely resist any backward steps. Iraqi security forces
China. M.K. Narayanan, National Security Adviser to In-
needed to be empowered, trained and equipped. Iraq
dia’s Prime Minister, underlined the bonds of trade, cul-
needed to talk to its neighbours, as it had begun to do so
ture and religion that tie India to the Gulf. Issues such as
with Iran and Syria, and would do with Jordan, Saudi
energy security, terrorism and conflicts were of common
Arabia and Turkey.
interest because together they threaten regional and inter-
Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed
national security. India was involved in the reconstruction
Bin Mohammed Al Khalifa said the region faced four
of Afghanistan, but these efforts were threatened by the re-
inter-linked challenges: demographics, extremism, sec-
surgence of the Taliban ‘made possible by the existence of
tarianism and terrorism. On the first of these, there was
support structures across the border’.
a danger that extremism and terrorism could find a
Narayanan
also
expressed
concern
about
Iraq,
favourable environment if countries failed to provide
Palestine and Lebanon. Iran’s security concerns needed
employment, infrastructure and social services to keep
to be addressed: non-engagement was not an option.
pace with growing populations. It was necessary to
He expressed doubt about Iran’s intention to weapon-
ensure that expatriate populations did not displace local
ise, though he said India would oppose this. Terrorism
workforces. Bahrain was addressing the issue through
was ‘one of the greatest scourges that the world has ever
labour-market reforms ‘to ensure that Bahrainis are given
known’, and terrorist groups had ‘common operating pro-
all necessary skills and opportunities to find employ-
cedures, common funding structures, common training
ment, without losing the flexibility to fill short-term gaps
facilities, and a degree of cross-cultural compatibility’.
through recruitment of expatriates’.
Yuriko Koike, Special Adviser to the Prime Minister for
Sheikh Mohammed Al Abdallah Al Sabah, Director,
National Security Affairs, Japan, said the Gulf and the East
Citizens Services and Governmental Bodies Assessment
were bound together by four key issues: energy, stability,
Agency, Kuwait, told the session that the withdrawal of US
trade and climate. On the first of these, the GCC countries,
troops from Iraq should not be an option as Washington
Iran and Iraq supplied 90% of Japan’s oil imports, and
reassesses its policy. This would only increase violence
Japan bought 27% of GCC output. Steps had been taken
and instability. Expressing concern about the situations
to improve maritime security, but more could be done to
in Lebanon and Palestine, Al Sabah called on Iran to build
promote dialogue between producer and consumer and in
international confidence about its nuclear programme by
terms of investment cooperation. On peace and stability,
dealing transparently with the IAEA.
she expressed Japan’s grave concern about North Korean The Manama Dialogue 2006 | 27
M.K. Narayanan, National Security Adviser, India
and Iranian nuclear programmes and called for greater
Participants heard that irregular challenges from both
cooperation to meet these challenges. Japan had pledged a
states and non-state actors had escalated over the last dec-
large amount of assistance to Iraq and was concerned about
ade: the threat to shipping, oil and gas installations, and
the deterioration of security there. On trade and economic
ports was now pervasive. Any substantial disruption of
security, Japan had commenced negotiations with the GCC
seaborne energy supplies or more general maritime trade
on a free-trade agreement. On climate, Koike, who was
could have global economic and political repercussions.
previously Environment Minister, said the GCC could not
Particular concern was expressed over the vulnerability of
afford to be indifferent to global warming.
chokepoints such as the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca,
Sun Bigan, China’s Special Envoy for the Middle
though there was little consensus on how feasible it might
East, expressed his country’s concern about the Israel–
be for conventional armed forces or terrorists to block these
Palestine conflict, Iran’s nuclear programme and Iraq.
vital trade routes.
Speaking in Arabic, Sun said that to build a harmonious
States in the Gulf region were already implementing
Gulf it was necessary to build mutual trust, to settle the
national measures to manage these threats, but only effec-
hotspot issues through dialogue, to promote economic
tive international cooperation involving extra-regional
and social development, and to build exchanges between
stakeholders, as well as regional states, could deal effec-
civilisations.
tively with the widening array of contemporary maritime
On the afternoon of 9 December, delegates broke into
security challenges. There was already substantial inter-
three groups for off-the-record discussions. While remarks
national maritime security cooperation in the Gulf region,
may not be attributed to the participants who made them,
where US-led but thoroughly multinational naval task
the IISS records the sense of the discussion.
forces operate in support of Operation Enduring Freedom
A session on ‘Energy and Maritime Security’ was
and Operation Iraqi Freedom.
chaired by Heisbourg. Opening remarks were made
The US proposal for a global ‘1,000-ship navy’ and
by Vice-Admiral David Nichols, Deputy Commander,
interest in creating a global maritime operating picture
US
Singh,
provided visions for intensified international cooperation
Commander-in-Chief, Eastern Naval Command, India;
Central
Command;
Vice-Admiral
A.K.
in the future. However, experience in Southeast Asia dur-
and Zainul Abidin Rasheed, Senior Minister of State for
ing the current decade pointed to the value of littoral states
Foreign Affairs, Singapore. The group focused on the
taking the initiative, and establishing regional maritime
nature of contemporary threats to maritime security,
security mechanisms in conjunction with user states.
and particularly seaborne energy supplies, in the Gulf
There was broad consensus in the group that maritime
and further afield. It discussed the modalities of regional
security was a global as well as a regional concern, and that
and international collaboration that might mitigate these
inter-regional cooperation was important. Notably, the
threats.
Gulf states should be concerned not only with maritime
28 | The 3rd IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Yuriko Koike, Special Adviser to the Prime Minister for National Security Affairs, Japan; and Sun Bigan, China’s Special Envoy to the Middle East
security in their immediate region, but also further afield,
On Iraq, debate was sparked by two contrasting rep-
and particularly in Southeast Asia, through which a high
resentations of the situation in Iraq. One portrayed the
proportion of their energy exports passes.
situation in Iraq as far better than that depicted by the
A break-out group on ‘Demographics, Sectarianism
Western and Arab media; 80% of Iraq was stable and 14
and Gulf Security’ was chaired by Ellen Laipson, President
out of 18 provinces were places where people lived a
and Chief Executive Officer of the Henry L. Stimson Center.
normal life; and the issue of sectarianism was driven by
Opening remarks were made by Dr Mowaffak Al Rubaie,
fringe groups on both sides of the Sunni–Shia divide. Iraq,
Iraqi National Security Adviser; Dr Sadoun Al-Dulame,
according to this view, was likely to recover and would
Adviser to the Iraqi Prime Minister and former Defence
neither disintegrate nor descend into civil war. However,
Minister; Wafaa Bassim, Egypt’s Deputy Foreign Minister;
the group was also presented with a vision of corruption,
Mohammed Bin Abdulla Al Rumaihi, Undersecretary of
which was said to be at the heart of the American and
State, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Qatar; and Dr Abdel
Iraqi failure to establish strong security forces. For exam-
Aziz Al Shaibi, National Security Agency, Yemen. The
ple, it had allegedly cost $100 million to build a camp that
group focused on two main themes: the situation in Iraq
should have cost no more than $6m. The heart of the secu-
and the movement of people, whether foreign workers into
rity problem in Iraq was said to be the fact that terrorists
the Gulf or migration out of Iraq, and the impact of these
were better armed and better financed than the Iraqi secu-
trends on regional security.
rity forces.
BREAK-OUT GROUP I: Energy and maritime security
(l–r): Vice Admiral A.K. Singh, Commander-in-Chief, Eastern Naval Command, India; Professor François Heisbourg, IISS Chairman; and Vice Admiral David Nichols, Deputy Commander, US Central Command; and Zainul Abidin Rasheed, Senior Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Singapore
The Manama Dialogue 2006 | 29
It was argued that migration created imbalances in
played a helpful role in moving East and West towards
communities and put tremendous strains on Iraq’s neigh-
reconciliation and the end of the Cold War. Another illus-
bours, which were likely to evolve into a security threat.
trative system was that of the Association of Southeast
Participants debated whether the failure of GCC laws to
Asian Nations, through which countries slowly overcame
help migrants to settle as residents or citizens, and local
differences by focusing first on economic cooperation.
populations being far out-numbered by immigrant labour
Issues on which cooperative security might be based
forces, were indeed generating a long-term security threat.
ranged from countering proliferation and terrorism to mar-
‘Security
itime security, energy and the environment. A few argued
Guarantees and Regional Stability’, under the chairman-
for building on specific convergent interests, such as the
ship of Field Marshal Lord Inge, former UK Chief of the
requirement of averting the collapse of the fledgling Iraqi
Defence Staff. Opening remarks were made by Dr John
and Afghan governments. Iraq consumed much attention,
Hillen, US Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military
amid widespread concern that sectarian strife could spill
Affairs; Jean de Ponton d’Amécourt, Director, Strategic
over into the region. The issue of Iran was more divisive:
Affairs, Ministry of Defence, France; and Dr Seyed Hossein
while Iran accused the United States of destabilising the
Mousavian, Foreign Policy Advisor to the Supreme
region, participants from other states encouraged more
National Security Council, Iran.
active engagement and diplomacy with Tehran.
The
third
break-out
group
discussed
The group heard that security guarantees from the United States remained important in the Gulf region, but
Fourth Plenary Session: The situation in Iraq
no one country could bring or keep the peace. Participants
The fourth plenary session focused on ‘The Situation in
contrasted a traditional, state-centred, balance-of-power
Iraq’. Iraqi Interior Minister Jawad Al Bolani said a demo-
system of security against a potentially emerging coopera-
cratic country could not build oppressive systems or start
tive and common security framework. The former system,
wars against its neighbours. The government had em-
defended by some American participants, underscored the
barked on a national reconciliation programme, but the
disproportionate burdens of security either placed on or
greatest danger came from al-Qaeda and jihadist organisa-
assumed by the United States. Some voices from the region
tions which, against religious principles, targeted civilians
expressed concern over the deleterious effects of an expan-
and infrastructure. The media gave too dark a picture of
sive American military presence in the region. One blamed
Iraq, failing to highlight the many reconstruction projects,
the United States for the current troubles.
the revival of the southern marshes and improvements in
More optimistically, others called on all countries to
security systems.
migrate towards a cooperative, common security sys-
Turkish Defence Minister Mehmet Vecdi Gönül com-
tem. Such a system might perhaps be modelled on the
mented, however, that ‘the violence in Iraq has reached a
Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which
level that causes great pain for all of us’. Terrorist, sectarian
BREAK-OUT GROUP II: Demographics, sectarianism and Gulf security
(l–r): Ellen Laipson, President and CEO, The Henry L. Stimson Center; Wafaa Bassim, Deputy Foreign Minister, Egypt; and Dr Mowaffak Al Rubaie, National Security Adviser, Iraq
30 | The 3rd IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Jawad Al Bolani, Interior Minister, Iraq; Mehmet Vecdi Gönül, Minister of Defence, Turkey; and Carl Bildt, Foreign Minister, Sweden
and criminal violence seemed to have engulfed the coun-
army; a constitutional compromise was essential; the
try. Reflecting Turkey’s long-standing concerns about
economy needed to be rebuilt; and reconstruction efforts
Kurdish-dominated northern Iraq, Gönül said Iraq’s oil
demanded ‘strategic patience’. Meanwhile, the efforts to
resources, including those from around the northern city of
stabilise Iraq and Palestine were interdependent: if one
Kirkuk, should be fairly used for the benefit of all the peo-
failed, so would the other.
ple of Iraq and not any particular group. Iraqis needed to set aside ethnic and sectarian interests, but political parties
Fifth Plenary Session: Europe’s role in the region
had been cultivating them instead. Allowing the country to
The fifth plenary dealt with ‘Europe’s Role in the Region’.
divide on ethnic and sectarian grounds would create prob-
Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, Diplomatic Adviser to Pres-
lems that would ‘engulf the entire region’.
ident Jacques Chirac, said France favoured efforts to build
Bildt sought to draw lessons for Iraq from his exten-
ties through dialogue, such as the long-running negotia-
sive knowledge of nation-building. He asserted that the
tions to forge a free-trade agreement between the European
territorial integrity of Iraq was vital, because ‘all par-
Union and the GCC. The Israel–Palestine issue, as well as
titions are written in blood’; the role of neighbours in
the troubles in Lebanon, must also be resolved through di-
preventing instability was important; internal security
alogue. A solution in Iraq could come only from Iraqis and
was key and police forces were more important than the
the task of other countries was to foster dialogue.
BREAK-OUT GROUP II: Demographics, sectarianism and Gulf security
(l–r): Dr Abdel Aziz Al Shaibi, National Security Agency, Yemen; Dr Sadoun Al-Dulaime, Adviser to the Prime Minister, Iraq; and Mohammed Bin Abdulla Al Rumaihi, Undersecretary of State, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Qatar
The Manama Dialogue 2006 | 31
(l–r): Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, Diplomatic Adviser to the President of the Republic, France; Adam Ingram, Minister of State for the Armed Forces, UK; and Christian Schmidt, Parliamentary State Secretary to the Federal Minister of Defence, Germany
Adam Ingram, Minister of State for the Armed Forces,
Germany and the UK in their bid earlier in 2006 to make
UK, focused on terrorism, arguing that those who claimed
progress on the nuclear issue. He was disappointed that
that terrorist acts were part of a holy war were wrong:
Iran had neither accepted nor published the offer.
there was no such war. Terrorist attacks had repeatedly made the lives of Muslims worse, not better. Partnerships
Sixth Plenary Session: The future shape of regional
between Muslim and non-Muslim communities and gov-
security
ernments were the best means of avoiding the schism the
The sixth plenary session considered ‘The Future Shape of
terrorists sought to create. It was also necessary to resolve
Regional Security’. Muhammad Ali Al Anisi, Chairman of
the region’s troubles, such as Israel–Palestine, Lebanon and
the National Security Agency, Yemen, stressed the need for
Iraq; the UN, EU and NATO were all reforming themselves
a comprehensive approach to the region’s security, paying
so as to be more effective. A peaceful region would mean
particular attention to economic development. The prob-
that terrorists had failed.
lems of the Horn of Africa needed to be taken into account.
Christian Schmidt, Parliamentary State Secretary,
General Ehsan Ul Haq, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs
Ministry of Defence, Germany, agreeing with other speak-
of Staff Committee, Pakistan, underlined the close bonds
ers on the need to resolve many regional issues, said Iran
of civilisation, history, ethnicity, culture, faith and econ-
had been offered far-reaching cooperation by France,
omy that tied Pakistan to the Gulf. He highlighted the
BREAK-OUT GROUP III: Security guarantees and regional stability
(l–r): Dr John Hillen, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, US; Jean de Ponton d’Amécourt, Director, Strategic Affairs, Ministry of Defence, France; Dr Hossein Mousavian, Foreign Policy Adviser to the Supreme National Security Council; Vice President, International Issues, Center for Strategic Research, Iran; and Field Marshal Lord Inge, former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK
32 | The 3rd IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): General Ehsan Ul Haq, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, Pakistan; Dr Mowaffak Al Rubaie, National Security Adviser, Iraq; and Ali Muhammad Al Anisi, Chairman, National Security Agency and Head of the Presidential Office, Yemen
international issues at stake and the fact that foreign
But there was plenty of good news in Iraq: in most parts,
military intervention could have both stabilising and desta-
people were leading normal lives.
bilising effects. There was also a need for regional states to
Violence was being generated by extremist Sunni and
create a better consensus among themselves. The Manama
Shia elements and was fuelled by regional states. Rubaie
Dialogue represented a step in this direction.
agreed with some elements of the ISG report, including the
Rubaie said his country was going through a paradigm
acceleration of the capabilities of Iraqi security forces and
shift from the old to a new order and demanded patience
engaging with neighbouring countries. But he described
while Iraq endured the sacrifices that were necessary for
other recommendations as ‘half-baked’ and deplored any
this to be completed. The country was developing a new
tendency of the US to ‘cut and run’. The way forward
identity. While al-Qaeda was an immediate threat, the real
for Iraq was internal reconciliation, including a general
long-term threat came from elements of the former regime.
amnesty and a review of de-Ba’athification.
The Manama Dialogue 2006 | 33
34 | The 3rd IISS Regional Security Summit
Read a more detailed report online
2007
4TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT, 7–9 DECEMBER
The Manama Dialogue 2007
Dr Robert Gates, US Secretary of Defense
A forthright address by Robert Gates, US Secretary of
represented. In spite of its absence, Iran was inevitably one
Defense, was the highlight of the fourth IISS Manama
of the Dialogue’s dominant themes.
Dialogue, held in Bahrain from 7–9 December 2007.
John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief
The Regional Security Summit took place just a few
Executive, kicked off the Dialogue by emphasising the rel-
days after the US Director of National Intelligence had
evance of IISS research work to the security issues affecting
issued a National Intelligence Estimate concluding that
the Gulf region. He said: ‘We are keen to bring the perspec-
Iran had been conducting a nuclear weapons programme,
tives of this region into the mainstream of international
but that this had been suspended in 2003.
strategic debate; involve regional analysts in our work;
The week, Gates told delegates, had marked a water-
help to connect the debates here to those of other regions;
shed. ‘Astonishingly, the revolutionary government of
and ensure also that IISS analysis is organically part of the
Iran has this week, for the first time, embraced as valid an
region’s deliberations.’
assessment of the United States intelligence community.’
The Manama Dialogue is continuing to develop as the
He hoped that Tehran would also accept its conclusions on
only forum that brings together national security estab-
Iran’s support for Hizbullah in Lebanon and insurgents in
lishments of the Gulf states with key outside powers.
Iraq, its uranium enrichment programme, its development
Chipman thanked the Kingdom of Bahrain for supporting
of ballistic missiles, and other activities.
the event, and for the logistical and other assistance pro-
Iran had committed itself to sending a strong del-
vided by its government.
egation to Manama. However, it notified the Institute
The speaker at the opening dinner, Sheikh Khalid Bin
on 7 December that it would not attend – thereby, in the
Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s Minister of
eyes of many delegates, missing an important opportu-
Foreign Affairs, was introduced by François Heisbourg,
nity for engagement with the many countries that were
Chairman of the IISS Council. The minister said that in
36 | The 4th IISS Regional Security Summit
Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs
recent weeks two events had built momentum towards a
unhelpful to the policy objectives we were seeking to pur-
new era of compromise in the region: the Annapolis sum-
sue? ... It has annoyed a number of our good friends. It has
mit, which had launched a new set of negotiations between
confused a lot of people around the world in terms of what
Palestinians and Israelis; and the Gulf Cooperation
we are trying to accomplish.’
Council (GCC) summit in Qatar, at which Iran’s President
Fleur de Villiers, chairman of the IISS Executive
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had proposed security, economic
Committee, responded that in spite of Gates’ call for inter-
and scientific cooperation between the GCC and Iran.
national pressure and sanctions to be maintained, ‘is the
Iran’s relations with the region and the world could
dominant sound … not one of slamming doors and bolt-
become a source of stability, rather than conflict, he said,
ing horses, and has the likelihood of that international
if no regional country was confrontational, and if Iran pur-
pressure … not been totally destroyed?’ Gates did not
sued its nuclear programme in full cooperation with the
think so. However, he did indicate that Washington’s
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
focus was on diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran, rather than on military action. Answering concerns of del-
First Plenary Session: The United States and the
egates from the Gulf that they could be marginalised by
regional balance of power
direct Washington–Tehran engagement, he gave assur-
Addressing the first plenary session on 8 December, Gates
ances that ‘the United States is not going to cut any kind
said of Iran that ‘you cannot pick and choose only the
of a deal with Iran’ and that ‘we value the views of all of
conclusions you like of this recent National Intelligence
our friends’.
Estimate’. It was, he said, Iran’s policy ‘to foment instabil-
Gates, who had just visited Iraq, said the level of violence
ity and chaos’. He argued that the international community
had recently been reduced and there had been ‘the return
should demand that Iran come clean about its past illegal
of a semblance of daily life in many cities and communi-
nuclear weapons development, and should insist that Iran
ties’. While pointing to a number of positive developments,
suspend enrichment and agree to inspection arrangements.
he said progress was fragile and urged the Iraqi govern-
Answering questions, Gates expressed his frustration
ment to push forward grassroots conciliation, to improve
– and that of President George W. Bush – at the diplo-
government services, and to make life for all Iraqis better.
matic confusion caused by the release of the intelligence
Underlining the consequences of failure, he urged regional
assessment. Because of the independence of the Central
countries to help Iraq. He added that although US troop
Intelligence Agency, he said, ‘the government of the United
levels in Iraq would start to fall, the staying power of the
States has virtually no say over the content of these esti-
United States should not be questioned.
mates or the timing of when they are issued … What were
Questioned on how the US would achieve a cohesive
we thinking of to put out something that was apparently so
stance on the contentious issue of Iraq, Gates said he had The Manama Dialogue 2007 | 37
(l–r): Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS Council
been trying to create a bipartisan agreement on future
our problem through trying to seal Iran off from the
strategy. ‘I do not care how we arrived at where we are; the
region … Yes, there are some issues, there are some dif-
fact is we are here. Now how do we move beyond where
ferences between us on some ideas, we know that, and
we are?’ There was a growing appreciation in the US of the
we always tell them this. What is very important is that
need to keep a residual force in Iraq, with the Iraqi govern-
nobody tries to dominate the region.’ Washington and
ment’s agreement.
Tehran should engage in direct dialogue, but Gulf states should not be left out.
Second Plenary Session: GCC security and economic development
Third Plenary: Energy and regional security
The second plenary session took the form of a dialogue be-
The third plenary session tackled energy and regional se-
tween delegates and Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jaber
curity. M.K. Narayanan, National Security Adviser, India,
Al Thani, Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs
emphasised his country’s growing need for energy because
of Qatar.
of its rapid economic growth. The country, he said, would
Among the themes were:
rely on a mix of energy sources, including nuclear power,
• the role of GCC states in Iraq: he did not believe
but was also investing in the Gulf. In return, India sought
enough was being done. ‘Part of the problem in Iraq is to
GCC investment in Indian energy infrastructure. This un-
find jobs for the people. If the people are busy then it will
derlined India’s already strong ties to the Gulf, where near-
put them away from thinking of other ways.’ However,
ly 5 million Indian citizens live. Amid the growing impor-
for Qatar to take a greater role, stability and safety were
tance of energy security, peace in the Gulf was in India’s
important, and ‘we would like to see all the Iraqi peo-
vital interest. The Indian Ocean carries 66% of the world’s
ple treated the same … It has been promised that part
oil supplies, 50% of containerised cargo, and 33% of bulk
of the constitution of Iraq will be reviewed, and that is
cargo. Wide-ranging regional partnerships and common
something that is very important for us.’ Challenged on
approaches to problems, including terrorism, were cited as
this point by Mowaffak Al Rubaie, National Security
priorities.
Adviser of Iraq, Sheikh Hamad said that while a strong
Sheikh Mohammed Al Abdallah Al Sabah, Director
Iraq was very important for regional stability, ‘to be
for Government Delivery, Kuwait, said energy security
frank, the unity of Iraq is still not there … Some parties
required protection of oil facilities from sabotage, and
feel that they are not being taken as full citizens.’
this meant more broadly that it was necessary constantly
• GCC relations with Iran: he stressed the neccessity
to try to neutralise regional tensions and conflict. For
to work together. ‘We have to acknowledge that Iran
this reason, the GCC summit had reaffirmed the impor-
is a very important country in the region. We cannot
tance of preserving Iraq’s unity and sovereignty, and the
avoid dealing with Iran … I do not think we can solve
need for other countries not to destabilise it or interfere
38 | The 4th IISS Regional Security Summit
Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jaber Al Thani, Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar at the second plenary session
in its internal affairs. At the same time, leaders stressed
gap between haves and have-nots. She added that rising
the importance of full cooperation between Iran and the
demand for oil increased the dangers of global warming –
IAEA.
an issue on which Japan is active. ‘As Japan imports 90% of
From Kuwait’s perspective, energy security was based
its oil from the Middle East, stability of the region is vital,’
on providing oil and derivatives to consumer countries at
she said. Securing sea lines of communication was identi-
adequate prices, in a way that permitted the country to con-
fied as an important goal.
tribute to international economic growth. It was noted that
After the third plenary session, four separate break-out
prices were influenced not only by supply and demand, but
groups met simultaneously for off-the-record discussions.
by security factors. More refining capacity was also neces-
The first was on inter-community relations and sectarian
sary, and Gulf states, including Kuwait, were investing in
conflict, chaired by Mamoun Fandy, IISS Senior Fellow for
it. Meanwhile, consumers needed to diversify their energy
Gulf Security. Opening remarks were made by Muhyideen
sources – the world’s dependence on the Gulf meant that
Al Dhabi, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen;
any threat or security disruption in the region affected
Mevlut Cavusoglu, member of parliament and Vice-
international security and economic growth.
President Foreign Affairs Department, AK Party, Turkey;
Yuriko Koike, recently Defense Minister of Japan,
Sadoun Al Dulame, former Defence Minister, Iraq; and
noted the recent sharp rise in the price of oil, which was
Bandar Al Aiban, Chairman, Foreign Affairs Committee,
creating a highly charged atmosphere and widening the
Majlis Al Shura, Saudi Arabia.
BREAK-OUT GROUP I: Inter-community relations and sectarian politics
(l–r): Muhiddeen Al Dhabi, Deputy Foreign Minister, Yemen; Dr Mowaffak Al Rubaie, Iraq’s National Security Adviser; Dr Sadoun Al Dulame, Former Defence Minister, Iraq; and Wafaa Bassim, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt
The Manama Dialogue 2007 | 39
M.K. Narayanan, National Security Adviser, India
The focus of the discussion was on the Sunni–Shia divide in Iraq and its possible knock-on effects in the wider
secular party ruled, things improved. A Turkish delegate said the solution in Turkey was the secular state.
region. But there was some dispute about whether it made
The second break-out group tackled regional armed
sense to look at clashes in Iraq and its region in terms of
forces and security policy. The chairman was Lord Guthrie,
this Sunni–Shia paradigm. At times of crisis, said one par-
former UK Chief of Defence Staff, and opening remarks
ticipant, people went back to basic identities. In this sense
were made by Maj.-Gen. Issa Al Mazrouie, Director of Mili-
the return to sectarian identity was artificial. Even the
tary Intelligence, United Arab Emirates; Lt.-Gen. Sheikh
Arab–Israeli conflict, he argued, was not essentially a con-
Mohammad Bin Abdullah Al Khalifa, Minister of State
flict between Muslims and Jews, but a conflict over land.
for Defence Affairs, Bahrain; General Babakir Baderkhan
Since sectarian lines were not new, the question arose as to why they were sharpening now. An Indian partici-
Zibari, Chief of Staff, Iraqi Joint Forces; and Mark Kimmitt, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, United States.
pant recalled that when India became independent, no one
The group heard that military establishments in the
thought it could survive – it was expected to fragment along
Gulf region had a wide array of roles. Most importantly,
ethnic and sectarian lines. But this did not happen. The
they acted as the ultimate guarantors of state authority,
democratic state played a basic role, as did secular politics.
while deterring threats to national sovereignty in an area
In general, he argued, whenever a religious party came to
beset with territorial disputes and challenges from regional
power, the threat of fragmentation increased. Whenever a
powers on its periphery. At the same time, the Gulf was
BREAK-OUT GROUP I: Inter-community relations and sectarian politics
(l–r): Dr Mamoun Fandy, Senior Fellow for Gulf Security, IISS; Dr Bandar Al Aiban, Chairman, Foreign Affairs Committee, Majlis Al Shura, Saudi Arabia; and Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, member of parliament, and Vice President, Foreign Affairs Department, AK Party, Turkey
40 | The 4th IISS Regional Security Summit
Sheikh Mohammed Al Abdallah Al Sabah, Director for Government Delivery, Kuwait
part of a wider Middle East in which the Israel–Palestine
Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Transnational Threats
conflict continued to be a major source of insecurity. Iran’s
and Political Risk, chaired the third break-out group
nuclear programme and overall strategic stance were of
on transnational threats. Opening remarks were made
major concern to other Gulf states.
by Admiral William Fallon, Commander, US Central
Delegates noted that governments in the region had
Command, United States; Gunter Gloser, Minister of
increased their defence spending, and major equipment
State, Federal Foreign Office, Germany; and Zamir Akram,
procurement programmes were under way. Iraq’s armed
Foreign Policy Adviser to Pakistan’s prime minister.
forces faced acute challenges in reconstituting a national
Initial presentations encompassed a wide-ranging
defence capability while simultaneously taking a greater
definition of transnational threats going beyond the more
share of the burden of fighting a multi-faceted insur-
familiar challenges of terrorism, narcotics and interna-
gency that still seriously threatened national cohesion.
tional crime to include energy and water security, climate
Multinational military cooperation was an essential com-
change, financial and banking systems, and the misuse
ponent of efforts to improve security, and the presence of
of cyberspace. Many such threats could be exacerbated
US and coalition forces in Iraq and the region as a whole
by conditions in failing states, by poor governance, lack
would remain important. At the same time, developing and
of border controls and corruption, and by destabilisation
strengthening the GCC’s ‘Peninsula Shield’ force would
arising from natural disasters. All agreed that such threats
help to synergise national defence efforts.
needed to be tackled in a comprehensive manner and
BREAK-OUT GROUP II: Regional armed forces and security policy
(l–r): Maj.-Gen. Issa Al Mazrouie, Director of Military Intelligence, Armed Forces, United Arab Emirates; Lt.-Gen. Sheikh Dr Mohammad Bin Abdullah Al Khalifa, Minister of State for Defence Affairs, Bahrain; General the Lord Guthrie of Craigiebank, Former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK; General Babakir Baderkhan Zibari, Chief of Staff, Iraqi Joint Forces, Iraq; and Mark T. Kimmitt, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Middle East, United States
The Manama Dialogue 2007 | 41
Yuriko Koike, former Defense Minister of Japan
across a broad front by means of military action, capacity
The fourth break-out group, on economic security,
building, the fostering of collective awareness, dialogue
sanctions, and regional stability, was chaired by Swedish
and enhanced cooperation. More specifically, the issue of
Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, and featured presenta-
terrorism needed to be addressed in a historical context,
tions by Patrick O’Brien, Assistant Secretary for Terrorist
not as a snapshot.
Financing at the US Treasury Department, and Sheikh
Discussion focused on the effectiveness of international and national institutions in dealing with the issues. Some
Mohammed Bin Issa Al Khalifa, Chairman of the Economic Development Board of Bahrain.
advocated a ‘ground up’ approach, making the best use of
Discussion centered on how sanctions could most effec-
the simplest mechanisms available or ones that might be
tively be applied. It was noted that sanctions had evolved
created. Others favoured better use of the United Nations
over the past decades from broad embargoes against entire
and the development of a ‘one-stop shop’ for dealing with
economies such as in the case of apartheid South Africa,
UN agencies. There was also scope for better use of existing
to targeted ‘smart’ sanctions designed to prevent specific
regional organisations, specialist institutions and non-gov-
activity, as in the case of action against terrorism financing
ernmental organisations. At the domestic level, there was a
by non-state actors and nuclear and missile proliferation
need better to coordinate the different objectives and val-
by Iran. It was emphasised that smart sanctions must have
ues of government departments dealing with, for example,
clarity as to the targeted activity and entities. Transparency
defence, foreign policy and development cooperation.
and predictability were vital to regional development,
BREAK-OUT GROUP III: Transnational threats
(l–r): Günter Gloser, Minister of State for Europe, Federal Foreign Office, Germany; Zamir Akram, Adviser to the Prime Minister for Foreign Affairs, Pakistan; Nigel Inkster, Director, Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS; and Admiral William J. Fallon, Commander, US Central Command, United States
42 | The 4th IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Mehmet Vecdi Gönül, Turkey’s Minister of Defence; Dr Mowaffak Al Rubaie, Iraq’s National Security Adviser; and Bob Ainsworth, Minister of State for the Armed Forces, UK
especially in the Middle East, where the private sector was
and that nationwide political reconciliation was needed
the engine of growth. Sanctions needed the widest possible
between all Iraqi political groups. Turkey was maintaining
application, hence the utility of adopting them through the
a dialogue with Iraqi leaders and groups, and was train-
UN, although comprehensiveness often came at the price
ing Iraqi officers as part of the NATO training mission. But
of effectiveness. Developing trade links would help pro-
Turkey was concerned that Iraq should not be fragmented
vide for better regional security.
along ethnic and sectarian lines. It was worried about the
On the evening of 8 December, delegates were hosted at
future status of the city of Kirkuk, and particularly about
dinner by His Royal Highness Sheikh Salman Bin Hamad
Kurdish PKK infiltration into Turkish territory. ‘We will
Bin Isa Al Khalifa, Crown Prince and Commander-in-Chief
not tolerate the use of Iraqi soil for the purpose of launch-
of the Bahrain Defence Force.
ing terrorist activities,’ Gönul declared. Mowaffak Al Rubaie, Iraq’s National Security Adviser,
Fourth Plenary Session: Iraq and the neighbourhood
delivered an eloquent address in which he said: ‘From
Addressing the fourth plenary session on Iraq and the
where we sit in Baghdad, … the region looks like this:
neighbourhood on 9 December, Mehmet Vecdi Gönül,
competition turned into conflict between Saudi Arabia and
Turkey’s Minister of Defence, welcomed improvements in
Iran, on the soil of Iraq.’ The region had been in conflict
Iraq’s internal security, but said this remained of concern
with the West, and its countries had been fighting amongst
BREAK-OUT GROUP IV: Economic security, sanctions and regional stability
(l–r): Carl Bildt, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sweden; Patrick M. O’Brien, Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing, Department of the Treasury, US; and Sheikh Mohammed Bin Essa Al Khalifa, Chief Executive Officer, Economic Development Board, Bahrain
The Manama Dialogue 2007 | 43
(l–r): Zhai Jun, China’s Assistant Foreign Minister for West Asian, North African and African Affairs; and Tariq Al Hashemi, Vice President of Iraq
themselves. ‘The choice is ours: either regional reconcilia-
would be no regional security without a peaceful and
tion, or regional pettiness.’
stable Iraq. The country needed national political agree-
To counter meddling by regional countries in Iraqi inter-
ment, as well as economic, social and judicial policies
nal affairs, Iraq had been building up its security forces in
that were integrated with national security require-
order to reach self-reliance and had embarked on political
ments, and modern, professional armed forces. At the
reconciliation and regional engagement. Iran and Syria had
regional level, it was necessary to ensure non-interfer-
tightened border controls, and Saudi Arabia had taken steps
ence of regional and international parties in Iraqi affairs.
to stop the flow of jihadists and their funding to Iraq. It was
Outstanding disputes needed to be resolved, coopera-
in the interest of GCC countries to engage more with Iraq. But
tion enhanced, and contributions to Iraq’s development
if they ‘continue to be imprisoned by their paranoia or scepti-
stepped up.
cism of an Iranian-influenced central government of Iraq, or
Zhai Jun, China’s Assistant Foreign Minister for West
of a Shia-Kurd‑dominated government in Baghdad, how long
Asian, North African and African Affairs, stressed that
is this going to last? Centuries?’ Iraq, Rubaie insisted, had a
regional confrontation would produce no winners and
democratic, parliamentary, constitutional system. A regional
underlined that China was willing to play its part in the
security pact was necessary: ‘We will continue in this sectar-
resolution of regional problems.
ian conflict and religious extremism if we do not join forces.’
Concluding the Dialogue, John Chipman noted that it
Iraq, he said, was ‘heading West’, building a strategic
had been convened at a difficult time and that the security
partnership with the United States. It was feasible, he said,
picture in the region remained ‘extremely murky’. While
for Iraq to have the US as a strategic ally, while also having
there had been advances over the past year in inter-state
a good relationship with Iran.
security, it had to be remembered that for many in the
Bob Ainsworth, Minister of State for the Armed Forces,
region, the state was not a key point of reference, and not
UK, said Britain remained committed to Iraq’s develop-
necessarily the paramount influence on their lives. The
ment even as security improved and the British troop
Dialogue, he said, had helped to shape understanding of
presence was reduced. It was important that Iraq’s neigh-
how enlightened leadership could enable people to have
bours helped to counter insurgent groups. Diplomatic
pride in their cultures and nations.
efforts needed to be kept up to get Iran to comply with its international obligations.
Chipman said the experience of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore had shown that it took about five years for a Dialogue to become a regional institution. The
Fifth Plenary Session: Regional framework for Gulf
Manama Dialogue was 80% there, he said, and the IISS
security
would spare no effort to make the fifth summit, from 5–7
The final plenary session was addressed by Tariq Al
December 2008, a success. He thanked the IISS team who
Hashemi, Vice President of Iraq, who stressed that there
had worked so hard to stage the 2007 Dialogue.
44 | The 4th IISS Regional Security Summit
Read a more detailed report online
2008
5TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT, 12–14 DECEMBER
The Manama Dialogue 2008
Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohamed Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs
Iran’s nuclear programme, piracy at sea and the future
especially in the Middle East’. The transition had been
of Afghanistan were among the themes extensively dis-
very extensively planned. ‘Anyone who thought that the
cussed at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain from 12 to 14
upcoming months might present opportunities to test the
December 2008.
new administration would be sorely mistaken.’
Opening the Fifth IISS Regional Security Summit, John
The conference heard addresses from the Deputy Prime
Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive,
Minister of Iraq, Dr Barham Saleh, and Afghanistan’s
noted that this was a time of transition to the adminis-
National Security Adviser, Dr Zalmai Rassoul, on the situ-
tration of US President-elect Barack Obama. Rather than
ation in their respective countries. General David Petraeus,
waiting for his policies to emerge, other countries needed
Commander, US Central Command, who previously com-
to adopt an imaginative and extrovert approach. ‘Staying
manded the multinational force in Iraq, offered proposals
silent or diffident and then complaining when the United
for regional defence cooperation.
States or others adopt ill-suited strategies for regional
Bahrain’s Crown Prince, His Highness Sheikh Salman
security is a diplomatic formula whose attractiveness
Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa, entertained delegates to
and effectiveness is low’, he said. The Manama Dialogue
dinner, and Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohamed Al
offered Gulf states the chance to take the initiative and to
Khalifa, Bahrain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, delivered the
influence the United States and others on their approach
conference’s opening keynote address.
to regional security.
The conference took place weeks after the attacks in
Robert Gates, who is to remain US Defense Secretary
Mumbai, which were linked to a Pakistan-based group
under Obama, addressed the Dialogue for the second suc-
and were a reminder of the continuing threat from terror-
cessive year and advised participants that ‘a change in
ism. Dr Sanjaya Baru, former official spokesman and media
administration does not alter our fundamental interests,
adviser to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, told
46 | The 5th IISS Regional Security Summit
Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS Council
the conference that terrorism was not divisible. ‘There are
Dealing with Iran
no good terrorists and bad terrorists. They keep changing
The question of how to deal with Iran preoccupies regional
their name and their identity, but there are so many links
neighbours and larger powers alike. As UK Defence Minis-
between one group and another, cutting across national
ter John Hutton said: ‘The combination of Iran’s ambition
boundaries, that unless states act against non-state actors,
to create an indigenous enriched uranium capability and
states have nothing to claim for themselves. This argument
its constant refusal to abide by five separate UN Security
about non-state actors cannot go to a point where states
Council resolutions on nuclear technology proliferation
pretend to be helpless. Why then do they exist?’
gives the international community every justification in
Three defence ministers gave plenary addresses: John Hutton of the UK, Vecdi Gönül of Turkey and Teo
saying that Iran’s stated aim to contain its nuclear programme for civil use cannot be taken seriously.’
Chee Hean of Singapore. Other speakers were Carl Bildt,
President-elect Obama indicated during his election
Sweden’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mikhail Margelov,
campaign that he was willing to have discussions with Iran
Chairman of the Committee for Foreign Affairs of Russia’s
without preconditions. But his precise approach remains to
Federation Council, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Member of
be seen, and Tehran’s attitude is also not yet known. Gates
Japan’s House of Councillors, Ali Muthna Hasan, Yemen’s
noted that the George W. Bush administration had been
Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs, and Pierre Lellouche,
willing to talk to Iran if enrichment was halted. ‘Whether
member of the French National Assembly and its rappor-
the new administration will broaden that aperture remains
teur on Afghanistan.
to be seen.’ All countries needed to exert economic and
The conference featured a televised debate for Al
diplomatic pressure.
Arabiya news channel, in which Sheikh Khalid Bin
It was unfortunate that the Dialogue was denied the
Ahmed and Dr Saleh took part, as well as Mark Kimmitt,
opportunity to hear an Iranian view. Chipman told the
US Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military
conference that he had held lengthy discussions in Tehran
Affairs, William Hague, British member of parlia-
on Iran’s attendance ‘at the highest level’; three officials in
ment and ‘shadow’ foreign secretary for the opposition
turn had confirmed that they would come ‘and all have
Conservative Party, and Dr Mamoun Fandy, IISS Senior
failed to attend’.
Fellow for Gulf Security.
Chipman raised the issue of how Gulf Co-operation
As is customary at IISS Dialogues, delegates met in off-
Council (GCC) members could best ensure that their inter-
the-record break-out group sessions and private bilateral
ests were advanced. Could they become part of the formal
meetings, as well as in plenary sessions. Sheikh Khalid Bin
negotiating structure, just as Asian powers were part of the
Ahmed hosted a private lunch for delegation leaders.
Six Party Talks on North Korea? Even if not, they should be The Manama Dialogue 2008 | 47
(l–r): Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Dr Robert Gates, US Defense Secretary
clear on what security arrangements would fit their inter-
a series of Security Council resolutions declaring Iranian
ests, so as to avoid being simply ‘part of the package’ in
enrichment activity to be illegal. Was there not something
some future settlement with Iran.
more that Russia could do to back that up? Dr Frederick
Dr Anwar Gargash, Minister of State for Foreign
Kagan, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise
Affairs of the United Arab Emirates, agreed it was impor-
Institute, said that since Russia held Iran to be in viola-
tant that as Gulf states were asked to shoulder more
tion of Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty obligations and
responsibilities within the region, they ‘should also be
International Atomic Energy Authority inspections, it
fully in the picture with regards to incentivising Iran,
would seem natural for Russia to refuse to assist its civilian
whatever incentive there is’.
nuclear programme.
Lively debate on Iran was sparked by Mikhail
Margelov responded that ‘you can hardly find any
Margelov. The chairman of the foreign affairs com-
responsible politician in Russia who will support the idea
mittee of the upper house of Russia’s parliament said
of granting the nuclear bomb to Iran. It is a nightmare even
Washington would keep up the pressure on Tehran,
for our radicals.’ Moscow was ready to cooperate with
but Moscow opposed further tightening of sanctions.
Washington in sponsoring ‘a comprehensive and realis-
For Russia, war was the worst-case scenario. But if Iran
tic resolution’. But proposals so far had lacked realism.
became a nuclear power, its neighbours would also want
Sanctions had not worked in former Yugoslavia or Iraq, and
to go nuclear, and this would set the stage for nuclear ter-
American plans to site missiles in Europe to defend against
rorism. If the Iranian threat could be dealt with through
Iran aroused bad memories of the Pershing missile crisis in
negotiation, this would remove the issue of the missile
the 1980s. ‘We think that if we seriously talk with our part-
defences that the US wished to place in Europe, the sub-
ners about common threats we should together work out
ject of bitter dispute between Moscow and Washington
mechanisms to combat those threats.’ Washington should
and mutual accusations of fuelling an arms race.
consider alternative sites that Russia had offered, since
Margelov’s remarks prompted many comments: if
Russia itself would be threatened by Iranian missiles. ‘I do
Moscow favoured neither sanctions nor military action
not know if Iranian nuclear warheads can be delivered to
against Iran, how did it imagine Tehran might be per-
the US by DHL’, Margelov said.
suaded to abandon its nuclear ambitions?
Beyond Iran’s nuclear programme, dealing with Tehran
Abdulaziz Al Sharikh, Director-General of Kuwait’s
poses challenges for regional neighbours. American offi-
Diplomatic Institute, said Moscow’s position was perplex-
cials referred repeatedly to Iran’s support for Hizbullah
ing. ‘So okay, we support negotiation and we are against
in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine. General Petraeus,
military action, but then what, if you are also against
Commander, US Central Command, said Iraqi Prime
increasing sanctions?’ Dr Dana Allin, IISS Senior Fellow
Minister Nuri al-Maliki had gone to Tehran and provided
for Transatlantic Affairs, noted that Russia had supported
evidence of the flow of weapons into Iraq and training
48 | The 5th IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Dr Barham Saleh, Deputy Prime Minister, Iraq; and Yoshimasa Hayashi, Member, House of Councillors, Japan
of Iraqi militias. There had recently been less evidence of
marks were off the record in accordance with normal prac-
Iranian-influenced violence, but this could have been due
tice at IISS Dialogues.
to losses suffered by militias in fighting rather than to an Iranian decision to reduce training or weapons supply.
The break-out group heard that pirates operating from areas of Somalia outside the writ of that country’s tran-
Lord (Douglas) Hurd, former UK Foreign Secretary,
sitional government had attacked more than 120 ships
asked Barham Saleh, Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister, to
during 2008 and had hijacked 40 vessels. At mid December,
describe how Baghdad assessed its day-by-day relation-
15 ships (including the Sirius Star, a fully laden very large
ship with Tehran. Saleh said Iran had long-standing
tanker owned by Saudi Aramco), and 300 crew members
relationships with Iraqi political parties that had been in
were being held to ransom. In response, states including
opposition to the Saddam Hussein regime, and ‘there is no
France, India, Malaysia, Russia, South Korea, the UK and
denying that Iran has influence and ways and means by
the US had stepped up naval patrols and had engaged
which it can deal with the situation in Iraq’. Iran has ben-
pirates, preventing some attacks. On 10 December a six-
efited from the removal of Saddam, and it was in Tehran’s
ship European Union naval force under British command
interest to support Iraqi stability and sovereignty.
commenced anti-piracy operations in the affected waters.
Lara Setrakian of ABC News noted that Washington
This was the EU’s first naval operation.
and Tehran had a shared interest in a stable Afghanistan.
In plenary session, Yoshimasa Hayashi, a member of
To help move towards better US–Iranian relations could
the upper house of Japan’s parliament, highlighted the
they work together to achieve a new security architec-
issue’s importance, saying that around 90% of Japanese
ture in Afghanistan? Zalmai Rassoul, the Afghanistan
crude oil imports came from the Gulf. ‘Japan has great
National Security Adviser, said Iran had been very coop-
concerns about the instance of pirates flagrantly operating
erative during the 2001 war which ousted the Taliban
off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden.’ A law to
regime, and had ‘understood that the presence of interna-
enable Japan to tackle piracy cases was being advocated by
tional forces in Afghanistan is useful for Afghanistan’. But
some Japanese politicians.
while Afghanistan and Iran had good relations, these were affected by the tension between Washington and Tehran.
Gates noted that the US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, had established patrols in the Gulf of Aden. But the coastal areas of Somalia and Kenya covered more than a million square
Piracy and maritime security
miles, so there were limits to what patrols could do. General
The Dialogue took place against the background of escalat-
Petraeus suggested combined maritime security operations
ing piracy off the Horn of Africa, particularly the Gulf of
as one of five activities in which regional countries could
Aden, and the international response to this. This was the
pool their efforts in order to improve defence capabilities.
subject of energetic discussion both in the on-the-record
However, Frank Gardner, Security Correspondent
plenary sessions and in a break-out group in which re-
of the British Broadcasting Corporation, pointed out The Manama Dialogue 2008 | 49
(l–r): John Hutton, Secretary of State for Defence, UK; and Dr Sanjaya Baru, Former Official Spokesman and Media Advisor to the Prime Minister of India
that confused messages were being given. The US was
Piracy and maritime security have been a particular
sponsoring a UN Security Council resolution calling for
focus of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, which takes place
authorisation to attack pirates’ land bases. However, the
annually in Singapore. That country’s defence minister,
Commander of the Fifth Fleet, Vice Admiral William
Teo Chee Hean, said multilateral cooperation, including
Gortney (also present at the Dialogue) had been quoted
air and sea patrols, had contributed to a sharp reduction
saying this would not be a good idea because of the dif-
in piracy in the Malacca Strait. Littoral states had acted to
ficulties of identifying pirates and the risk of killing
eliminate coastal staging areas. But there were important
innocent civilians.
differences with the Gulf of Aden: the Somali government
Gates said better intelligence was needed about Somali
lacked the capacity to act.
clans that were behind the piracy before attacks could be
India’s navy has been active in the anti-piracy opera-
launched on land without endangering innocent people.
tions. Vice Admiral DK Joshi, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff,
Success could only be achieved by a combination of meas-
pointed out a key difference from the Malacca Strait: the
ures, and ship-owners had to play their part. They should
entire corridor of concern was in international waters,
‘give instructions to their captains to do minimally intel-
beyond territorial limits of littoral states. This raised a
ligent things, such as speed up when the pirates come
problem of what to do with people who were detained in
along... The truth of the matter is that most ships can do
naval operations. During the Dialogue, the Indian navy
that. However, too many ships simply stop. Another piece
apprehended a pirate ship and arrested 23 suspects, who
of advice is to pull up the ladders. This is not rocket sci-
were now on board ship in the port of Aden. Would Yemen
ence!’ They could also take defensive measures. ‘I know
accept them to be tried under its laws?
there is a concern among ship-owners about putting armed
Yemen came under pressure from other delegates,
people on their ships. However, my suspicion is that many
several of whom also suggested that the problem needed
of these people in the business also have land-based ware-
to be addressed more broadly. General Khalid Jamil Al
houses with fences and guards on them. They might want
Sarayreh, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Jordan,
to think about that for their ships as well.’
suggested Yemen should lead an Arab effort to find a solu-
Commodore Simon Williams, Head of the International
tion to the Somali problem. Fighting piracy at sea would
Plans and Policy Division (Military) in the UK Ministry of
not solve this. ‘While the Arab states are the most affected
Defence, agreed that industry had to play its part. An attack
by this problem, they have not done much until now on
by pirates was ‘a very low probability incident but very high
the regional or inter-Arab arena to find a solution’, he
profile when it occurs and industry can do a great deal to
said. Nasser Al Jaidah, Chief Executive Officer of Qatar
address the issue.’ Piracy could not be eliminated: ‘Getting
Petroleum, said nobody was discussing what to do about
to a minimal acceptable level is probably the closest that one
Somalia itself. ‘The issues of a country which has basically
can get.’
disappeared from the map as a state are major issues that
50 | The 5th IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Mehmet Vecdi Gönül, Minister of Defence, Turkey; and Ali Muthna Hasan, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen
need to be addressed rather than simply dealing with a few
piracy. Hasan said Yemen had hosted many negotiations
naval boats.’
between Somali factions, and had done all it could, but ‘the
On this point, Carl Bildt, Sweden’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, said the European Union was ‘heavily engaged in
question of Somalia is a concern for the entire international community and the UN’.
efforts to bring peace to Somalia itself ... That has not been a
In the break-out group session on piracy, there was a
smashing success so far, to put it mildly, but we now have
clear consensus that collaboration was key to successful
the Djibouti Peace Agreement and we must do whatever can
naval operations, and that the EU initiative, which was
be done to support the implementation of that agreement.’
open to other states’ navies, was a highly positive develop-
Ali Muthna Hasan, Yemen’s Deputy Minister of
ment. However, the role of international naval forces raised
Foreign Affairs, said Somalia could become ‘a magnet for
difficult legal questions – most importantly, that of what to
terrorist groups and radical groups of all kinds’. The inter-
do with captured pirates. Agreements with littoral states,
national community’s failure to give it sufficient attention
such as that recently negotiated by the UK with Kenya,
had led to chaos, which in turn had laid the foundation for
seemed the best way forward.
the rise in piracy. He called on the international commu-
Naval patrols could not provide a comprehensive solu-
nity to help Yemen to absorb 700,000 Somali refugees, and
tion, the group heard. The pirates took cover amongst
proposed the creation of a regional centre in Yemen to facil-
legitimate fishing vessels and within 15 minutes could seize
itate exchange of information between countries fighting
vessels and take hostages. Navies were then effectively
BREAK-OUT GROUP I: Demographics, Labour and Security
(l–r): Dr Gregory Gause, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Vermont; Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS; Dr Majeed Al Alawi, Minister of Labour, Bahrain; and Dr Sanjaya Baru, former Official Spokesman and Media Advisor to the Prime Minister of India
The Manama Dialogue 2008 | 51
(l–r): Teo Chee Hean, Minister for Defence, Singapore; and Mikhail Margelov, Chairman, Committee for Foreign Affairs, Federation Council, Russia; Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation on Sudan
powerless to take action. There was agreement that the
did not omit discussion of Iraq, the tone was entirely dif-
shipping industry needed to assume greater responsibility
ferent, especially in light of the just-signed Status of Forces
by equipping ships with passive defences and by appropri-
Agreement under which all American forces are due to
ate responses, such as speeding up. More fundamentally,
depart by the end of 2011. Deputy Prime Minister Saleh
piracy was a land-based problem and in this case was a
devoted much of his speech to the country’s economic re-
direct result of the collapse of the Somali state and econ-
generation. US Defense Secretary Gates heralded the dawn
omy. Intelligence-gathering was revealing more about the
of a new era, though he also warned that the reduction of
organisation and scale of clan-based pirate enterprises.
violence was reversible.
Attacking pirates on land might become operationally feasible, but would be legally dubious.
However, as security has improved in Iraq, international attention has switched to the worsening Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Considerable concern was
The challenges of Afghanistan
expressed at the Dialogue about the flow of insurgents
Previous Manama Dialogues had been heavily overshad-
across the Durand Line from Pakistan into Afghanistan
owed by the situation in Iraq, where coalition and Iraqi
and about Pakistan’s efforts – actual and desired – to stop
forces were battling a complex insurgency following the
this. There were increasing worries that a true solution for
US-led invasion in 2003. While the 2008 Dialogue certainly
Afghanistan would require a broader regional settlement.
BREAK-OUT GROUP II: Transnational Problems of Afghanistan in the Context of Regional Security
(l–r): Professor Ali Jalali, Distinguished Professor, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University; Lt.-Gen. Muhammad Mustafa Khan, Chief of General Staff, Pakistan; Nigel Inkster, Director, Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS; Yousuf Bin Alawi Al Ibrahim, Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs, Oman; and Lt.-Gen. Karl W. Eikenberry, Deputy Chairman, Military Committee, NATO
52 | The 5th IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): General David Petraeus, Commander, US Central Command; and Dr Zalmai Rassoul, National Security Adviser, Afghanistan
Chipman said NATO was struggling in Afghanistan,
never had the support of the Afghan people’. After the cur-
and that more troops and money would not be enough to
rent round of troop increases, ‘we ought to think long and
turn the situation around. The United States is significantly
hard about how many more go in’. The important thing
increasing the size of its forces there. Professor François
was to improve Afghan capabilities – a huge challenge in
Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS Council, asked Gates
a country where the $2bn annual cost of maintaining a
what he was expecting from European partners, and what
national army of 134,000 was three times total government
was the correct balance between military, political and eco-
revenues. International efforts to boost development and
nomic efforts.
Afghan institutions needed to much better coordination.
While Gates welcomed increases in European commit-
Mehmet Vecdi Gönül, Turkey’s Defence Minister,
ments, he said ‘the reality is that the European members
agreed that ‘a military approach alone cannot solve the
of NATO have approximately 2.5 million people under
problems in Afghanistan. All instruments – political, diplo-
arms ... and so I must admit to some frustration in trying
matic, economic – need to be utilised together for a lasting
to get some few thousand more to help us in particular
solution.’
to train the Afghan national army and national police’.
Ahmed Rashid, Pakistani writer and journalist, noted
Significantly, however, Gates also indicated that he saw
that extremist groups based in Pakistan could launch ter-
a limit to the size of foreign forces. The Soviet Union had
rorist attacks around the world and were also attacking
120,000 troops in Afghanistan, but had lost ‘because they
US and NATO convoys going through Pakistan. Pierre
BREAK-OUT GROUP III: Sectarian Politics
(l–r): Dr Thuraya Arrayed, Advisory Board Member for Saudi CIT (Commitee of International Trade); Egemen Bagis, Foreign Policy Adviser to the Prime Minister; Vice Chairman, AK Party Foreign Affairs; and Member of Parliament, Turkey; Dr Mamoun Fandy, Senior Fellow for Gulf Security, IISS; Professor Ebtisam Al Kitibi, Professor, Department of Political Science, UAE University; and Dr Sadoun Al Dulame, former Defence Minister, Iraq
The Manama Dialogue 2008 | 53
(l–r): Carl Bildt, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sweden; and Pierre Lellouche, Rapporteur on Afghanistan, French National Assembly
Lellouche, the French National Assembly’s Rapporteur on
to be built and corruption was a problem. Development
Afghanistan, believed that if militants continued to have
was urgently needed to provide employment, as well as
sanctuaries in Pakistan, there was no way to solve the
education, so that young people would not be attracted by
Afghan problem, which he saw as part of a very gloomy
terrorist groups. Full regional cooperation was required
regional picture – one that other delegates disputed. ‘The
to win the conflict, including a joint anti-terrorist strategy
NATO taxpayer’, Lellouche said, ‘is bankrolling the largest
and good relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
producer of heroin in the world.’
A break-out group on Afghanistan heard that stability
Afghanistan’s National Security Adviser, Dr Zalmai
would depend partly on the behaviour of outside powers,
Rassoul, pointed out that there had been considerable
including Pakistan. It was essential to improve governance,
progress: a free country; an elected government; a free
since although most Afghans did not support the Taliban,
press; five million returned refugees; five million children
they were not prepared to oppose them in the cause of a
in schools, 40% of them girls; more roads than ever in the
weak government. The current military priorities were to
country’s history; primary medical care. But the Taliban’s
provide security for elections due in 2009, build the capac-
return to a country without institutions, police or a judicial
ity of the Afghan National Army, and to improve security
system had caused chaos and had boosted production of
on the Durand Line.
narcotics. While the Afghan National Army had been built
Two other break-out group sessions were held. A group
and police training has begun, other institutions were still
on ‘Demographics, Labour and Security’ found that issues
BREAK-OUT GROUP IV: Piracy and Regional Maritime Security
(l–r): Vice-Admiral Gérard Valin, Joint Forces Commander, Indian Ocean, France; Vice Admiral D.K. Joshi, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff, India; Rahul RoyChaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia, IISS; and Mark Kimmitt, US Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs; and Vice Admiral William Gortney, Commander, US Naval Forces, Central Command and Commander, US Fifth Fleet
54 | The 5th IISS Regional Security Summit
of identity and social cohesion and the role of expatriate
identities was a serious challenge to the Gulf region as a
labour were of vital importance in light of their potential
whole. Countries’ varied experience illuminated the range
security implications. Bahraini moves to ensure labour
of instruments available and the varying chance of success.
rights and improve expatriate workers’ conditions were
The growth of sectarian politics was an unwelcome and
noted, and Gulf nations were looking to reassess legislation
negative development which seemed likely to aggravate
on expatriate labour. The proportion of expatriate workers
tensions and divisions in states and the region. There was
in the Gulf varied from 40% to 90% of the population, and
a risk of threats to regional security, regression to primitive
posed a possible challenge to national and regional iden-
concepts of identity, and a halt in progress towards equal-
tity. Expatriates often lived in areas effectively cut off from
ity. Policies which might be worthy of consideration across
indigenous inhabitants geographically, socially, culturally
the region included a regional focus on the corrosive effects
and linguistically. Security concerns were felt by nations
of sectarian politics on civil societies; refusal by political
of origin as well as residence, and the Gulf was vulnerable
parties to be associated with religious labels; applying the
to fluctuations in the stability of countries of origin; vio-
benefits of economic and social progress without regard
lence could also arise from labour disputes. But another
to religious or ethnic identity; countering efforts to fos-
participant stressed that this was not an international secu-
ter grievances between Sunni and Shia groups; greater
rity issue, rather one that could be dealt with nationally,
efforts to integrate Shia communities into economic and
bilaterally and on the police level. The group also noted
social development programmes; discussion about how oil
the economic benefit that expatriate labour brought to the
wealth could best be exploited for the benefit of all; empha-
Gulf, and to countries of origin in the form of remittances.
sis on shared historic and religious experiences common
A break-out group on ‘Sectarian Politics’ noted that
to Sunni and Shia communities; and greater emphasis in
the complex legacy of ideological, religious and group
educational systems on social responsibility and cohesion.
The Manama Dialogue 2008 | 55
56 | The 5th IISS Regional Security Summit
See videos and transcripts online
2009
6TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT, 11–13 DECEMBER
The Manama Dialogue 2009
The Al-Arabiya debate (l–r) Dr Mamoun Fandy, Jeffrey Feltman, Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohamed Al Khalifa, and Ali Muhammad Al Anisi
Pressing threats to regional security, including Iran’s
John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief
nuclear programme and the conflict in Yemen involving
Executive, announced that the Institute would establish
Houthi rebels, were vigorously discussed at the 6th IISS
a regional office in Bahrain in 2010. As well as undertak-
Regional Security Summit, held in Manama, Bahrain from
ing research activities, the office would help to ensure the
11 to 13 December 2009.
annual IISS summit ‘serves the evident needs of the region
Iran sent a strong delegation to the Manama Dialogue. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki addressed the first
for a more wide-ranging, trans-regional and inclusive regional security dialogue’.
plenary session and caused a flurry of media stories when
‘Current institutions and organisations do not serve that
his answer to a question was interpreted as making a new
purpose, and current freelance ad hoc diplomacy does not
offer in the long-running international confrontation over
provide the necessary coherence to advance wider regional
the country’s nuclear facilities.
stability’, Chipman said. ‘A forum that requires the regular
The Yemen conflict was the subject of lively argu-
assembly of parties who are often in dispute or at conflict
ment in a televised debate recorded at the Dialogue by
creates the possibilities for the planned discussions that are
the Al-Arabiya network. As Saudi Arabian fighter aircraft
a pre-condition to potential diplomatic reconciliation.’
continued a campaign of air strikes against guerrillas in the
Giving the Keynote Address to the opening dinner,
region bordering northwest Yemen, the main question was
Sheikh Dr Muhammad Al Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah, Kuwait’s
whether Iran was providing support to the Houthi rebels.
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs,
Ministers, military chiefs, officials and experts from
expressed the hope that the Manama Dialogue would pro-
many countries again took part in the Manama Dialogue.
vide such a forum ‘for many years to come’. Members of
The Crown Prince, Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, hosted a
the Gulf Cooperation Council must, he said, join forces to
dinner for official delegates on 12 December.
contain threats to their national security. Their concept of
58 | The 6th IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman, IISS Council; and Sheikh Dr Muhammad Al Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kuwait
preventive diplomacy involved peaceful, transparent, good-
was proposing a ‘middle way’ to allow the exchange to
neighbourly relations that avoided the use of ideologies.
take place on the Iranian island of Kish in phases of 400kg.
Sheikh Dr Muhammad was particularly concerned about
‘Is not that a response?’ he asked. ‘Why are you pleading
the challenge posed by demographic changes, including rapid
ignorance?’ Sanctions, he said, were illegal and ineffective,
population growth, the increase in migrant worker numbers,
and Iran would not give up its rights to develop nuclear
and the fact that the children of migrant workers were enter-
capabilities. While Washington soon indicated that it saw
ing the competition for jobs. He added that it was essential for
nothing new in Mottaki’s remarks, it remained to be seen
Gulf countries to preserve their cultural identities.
whether a deal such as that tentatively agreed in Geneva might still be possible.
Iran
The concerns of other countries about Iran were evi-
With the United States and other countries considering
dent. Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohamed Al Khalifa,
new sanctions against Iran because of lack of progress
Bahrain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, said the biggest
in discussions on its nuclear programme, the country
threat to the region was the possibility of conflict between
provided a major focus for the Dialogue. Some Gulf
Israel and Iran over the nuclear programme. ‘Lives will be
countries, in particular the United Arab Emirates, have
lost, vital resources will be put in jeopardy, the world econ-
been stepping up purchases of military equipment,
omy will undoubtedly suffer and all our efforts towards
apparently because they perceive a heightened threat.
regional development and prosperity will be significantly
In his speech, Mottaki said Iran opposed nuclear weap-
hindered,’ Sheikh Khalid said.
ons. Questioned on the nuclear programme, he noted that
Relations between Iran and its neighbours needed
the Tehran research reactor had been built with American
to be improved. Sheikh Khalid proposed several confi-
help, and the Bushehr nuclear power plant with French
dence-building measures: coordination of responses on
and German support. But because all this help had been
disaster risk reduction, for example on severe dust storms;
withdrawn, Iran had determined to be self-sufficient – it
a regional development programme providing expertise
needed ten–15 nuclear plants for electricity generation.
and assistance in areas lacking basic resources; and regional
‘Once bitten, twice shy’, Mottaki said.
consultations to prevent a future regional nuclear disaster.
Responding to a question from Mark Fitzpatrick, IISS
Kuwait’s Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Dr Muhammad
Senior Fellow for Non-Proliferation, Mottaki objected to
said Iran’s programme needed to follow the guidelines
suggestions that Iran had not responded to a proposal
of the International Atomic Energy Agency. If the United
discussed in Geneva in October, under which Iran would
Nations Security Council agreed on a new round of sanc-
ship 1,200kg of enriched uranium out of the country, to
tions, he said, ‘this region is going to enter into a period of
be further enriched into fuel for the Tehran reactor. Iran
tension. Iran is a major player in the Gulf. Any tension with The Manama Dialogue 2009 | 59
(l–r): Manouchehr Mottaki, Foreign Minister, Iran; Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohamed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain; and Hoshyar Zebari, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Iraq
Iran would reflect on the relationship between the GCC and
Saudi Arabia denies its bombing raids in the mountainous
Iran.’
border area have hit targets across the border. Meanwhile,
General David Petraeus, Commander, US Central Command, said Iran’s posture had prompted a warmer
Iran denies Yemeni government accusations that Iran is providing support to the Houthis.
regional embrace of the United States. Far from encountering
Al-Arabiya, the Dubai-based television network, made
a ‘credibility gap’ in the region – as one questioner sug-
the conflict the subject of its televised debate on the first even-
gested – the US was strengthening its partnerships with Gulf
ing of the Dialogue. Ali Muhammad Al Anisi, Chairman of
countries. The recruiting officer for such partnerships was
Yemen’s National Security Agency, said foreign intervention
Iranian President Mahmood Ahmadinejad, Petraeus said.
had contributed to the outbreak of violence. Jeffrey Feltman,
Over the past year, the United Arab Emirates had ordered
Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs in the US State
$18bn worth of American defence equipment, including
Department, said Washington did not have independent
Patriot missile batteries. He suggested that the UAE’s fleet of
information to support allegations of Iranian interference,
F-16s would be able to ‘take out’ the Iranian air force.
but supported the government in its efforts against the insur-
Calling Iran a ‘thugocracy’, Petraeus said that follow-
gency. Mamoun Fandy, IISS Senior Fellow for Gulf Security
ing the ‘hijacked elections’, Iran’s Supreme Leader had
and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East, made fun
resorted to using the Revolutionary Guard and Basij mili-
of the tendency to allege foreign intervention without spe-
tia to contain protests. This ever-growing control over the
cifically naming Iran; he referred instead to intervention by
levers of power made it ‘difficult to reach out to Iran and
Martians. An Iranian official denied his country was helping
find a willing partner at the other end’.
the Houthis, and quoted love poetry to emphasise the close ties between Tehran and Sanaa. Sheikh Khalid, the Bahraini
Regional conflicts
Foreign Minister, said Yemen’s stability was vital and it was
The region is beset by several ongoing conflicts. Since 2004,
necessary to support the government there. The other pan-
the Manama Dialogue has provided an annual snapshot of
ellists agreed: in Fandy’s view, there was a risk of Yemen
the war in Iraq, where the situation is now much improved
becoming a failed state, and the situation posed a real chal-
but still fragile. The 2009 Dialogue took place days after US
lenge to the security of the entire Gulf region.
President Barack Obama set out a new strategy to deal with
The worsening conflict in Afghanistan has been of
the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. While the Dialogue
primary concern to policymakers and military chiefs in
discussed this situation in depth, it was the flare-up of conflict
all Manama Dialogue participant nations throughout the
in Yemen that first caught the attention of delegates.
year. Karl Eikenberry, a frequent participant in IISS events
Sporadic fighting has occurred for five years between
as a general and now US Ambassador to Afghanistan,
Yemeni government forces and the Shia Houthi rebels.
intervened from the floor to explain aspects of President
60 | The 6th IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Mehmet Vecdi Gönül, Minister of Defence, Turkey; Kazuya Shinba, Senior Vice Minister for Defence, Japan; and M.K. Narayanan, National Security Adviser, India
Obama’s December announcement that 30,000 more
Makhdoom
Shah
Mahmood
Qureshi,
Pakistan’s
American troops would be sent. There were several aims:
Minister of Foreign Affairs, said the past eight years had
to break the momentum of the Taliban-led insurgency, to
seen an inordinate focus on military solutions, with recon-
signal American resolve, and to move towards the com-
struction efforts not improving the lot of ordinary Afghans.
prehensive strategy – integrating military and civilian
Pakistan welcomed Obama’s recent announcement and his
efforts – that NATO had embraced. While the mid-2011
reaffirmation of partnership with Islamabad. However, he
date for the beginning of the US troop withdrawal was
said clarity and coordination was needed on implementa-
firm, the drawdown would depend on conditions and on
tion of the strategy and he looked forward to engagement
the growing aspirations of Afghan security forces. To the
ensure there was no adverse effect on Pakistan.
‘clear-hold-build’ approach had been added the crucial
Christian Schmidt, Parliamentary State Secretary to the
word ‘transfer’, and efforts were focused on creating condi-
Minister of Defence, Germany, said much progress had
tions in which this could be done. The new policy would
been made in Afghanistan since 2001, but the security situ-
thus have a ‘forcing function’.
ation had deteriorated considerably, including in the North
Masoom Stanekzai, adviser to President Hamid Karzai
where Germany had responsibility. Based on the outcome
on Home Security, said the government’s new approach
of the international conference planned for January in
put stress on taking more responsibility for the security of
London, Germany and other European countries would
Afghanistan, building the capacity of the Afghan institu-
reconsider their levels of civil and military commitment.
tions, and fighting corruption. He welcomed the strategy
Amid the renewed efforts to end the conflict in
of General Stanley McChrystal, the American commander,
Afghanistan, there were continuing worries about the sus-
to protect the population. But he drew attention to severe
tainability of hard-won progress in Iraq. Hoshyar Zebari,
problems such as drugs and endemic poverty, which drew
Minister of Foreign Affairs, recalled that before the era of
young unemployed men towards extremism. Regional
Saddam Hussein, Iraq had a positive impact on the Gulf,
cooperation was essential: ‘There is a lot of discussion and
flourishing culturally and economically as a ‘regional
lot of good will, but there is a need for improved action
trendsetter’. ‘We are now working hard to return Iraq to
on the ground’, he said. An increasing number of youths
the stability and prosperity it enjoyed before its down-
from the border region with Pakistan were finding jobs
ward spiral, so that it can play the role we want it to play
in the Gulf. Using their income to support their families,
in promoting stability, security and prosperity in the Gulf’,
they gradually distance themselves from extremist groups
Zebari said. Out of conflict had come new skills, such as
and ‘contribute to the well-being of the population in those
the expertise of special operations forces in combating ter-
areas’. This showed scope for regional cooperation to
rorists and insurgents. These, he said, were key elements
change the dynamics of the insurgency.
in expanding security in Iraq: following the American The Manama Dialogue 2009 | 61
(l–r): Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pakistan; Masoom Stanekzai, Adviser to the President on Home Security, Afghanistan; and Christian Schmidt, Parliamentary State Secretary to the Minister of Defence, Germany
withdrawal, there would be ‘no security vacuum to be
of attacks and violent civilian deaths in November 2009 was
filled by any external players’. The coming elections in
the lowest of any month since the US-led invasion in 2003.
March 2010, he said, would ‘determine Iraq’s future, fate
Violent incidents had fallen by over 90% since spring 2007. As
and course for years to come’.
the US drew down its forces in Iraq, it was working to fos-
Mehmet Vecdi Gönül, Minister of Defence, Turkey,
ter closer relations between Iraq and other Arab countries. ‘I
agreeing that the Iraqi elections were of paramount impor-
would remind my Arab brothers that if there is concern about
tance, said Kirkuk was a source of concern, and a settlement
certain influences in Iraq, then it would be wise to increase the
acceptable to all groups there was essential to ensure stabil-
Arab influence in that critical country’, Petraeus said.
ity. Zebari said relations with Turkey were improving, with
A plenary session was devoted to plans for nuclear
various agreements reached, but ‘we get sensitive when we
power. M.K. Narayanan, National Security Adviser to the
see our neighbours trying to interject ourselves on how this
Indian Prime Minister, said the world was embarking on
country could be run or elected or governed’. Kirkuk was
a ‘nuclear renaissance’ and that much of the new activ-
an Iraqi city, and the Iraqi people had to decide its future.
ity was taking place in the Middle East and Asia. Nuclear
Answering a question, Zebari said there had been seri-
energy was the only way to fill India’s projected energy
ous problems in supply of water to Iraq from both Turkey
deficit of 412MW by 2050. Indian scientists were working at
and Iran. New agreements were necessary between Turkey,
the cutting edge on fast breeder reactors and thorium-based
Iraq and Syria. On a recent series of car bombs in Iraq,
technologies. International cooperation was needed to shape
Zebari said these were aimed at paralysing and embar-
the growth of nuclear power and to ensure security and
rassing the government, and further eruptions of violence
safety needs were met. ‘The possibility of terrorists gaining
should be expected before the elections. However, it was
access to nuclear materials and technologies and the shadow
clear that terrorists were relying on ‘spectaculars’ and were
of nuclear terrorism is perhaps the gravest threat to global
no longer able to sustain their attacks. Asked about Syria,
security and mankind at this moment’, Narayanan said.
Zebari said relations were problematic and Baghdad had
Kazuya Shinba, Japan’s Senior Vice Minister for
intelligence that former members of Iraqi security forces
Defence, noted there was increasing momentum for
who were living there had strong connections with the
nuclear disarmament. While there were worries Japan
Syrian authorities. Recent bomb attacks, while not the
might acquire nuclear weapons in response to North
work of foreign fighters, had required the kind of logisti-
Korea’s nuclear development, he said ‘there is no way that
cal support that could only be found among such people.
Japan will possess nuclear weapons’. Japan would con-
Talks with Damascus on the issue had led nowhere.
tinue to pursue disarmament through the Six-Party Talks
Petraeus said progress in Iraq was ‘fragile and reversible’ but emphasised the sharp reduction in violence. The number 62 | The 6th IISS Regional Security Summit
and hoped all nuclear weapon states would undertake multilateral or bilateral reduction efforts.
(l–r): General David Petraeus, Commander, US Central Command; Ali Muhammad Al Anisi, Chairman of National Security Agency, Yemen; and Dr Mohammed Abdul Ghaffar, Adviser to the King of Bahrain on Diplomatic Affairs
Among other issues raised was the need for improved
exercises, and bilateral and multilateral arrangements.
security frameworks in the Gulf region. Petraeus said the past
Interaction with partner countries had helped to develop the
year had seen an increase in the number of joint operations,
concept he described as ‘multi-bilateralism’ – the integration
BREAK-OUT GROUP 1: Military Transformation, Intelligence and Security Cooperation The central question for the group was how to move from con-
education and healthcare systems and greater agricultural expertise.
flict resolution into a much broader mode of conflict prevention
This entailed enhancing civilian authorities and development of a
and post-conflict consolidation. The Gulf region faced threats in-
regional structure overcoming the problems of distance, difficult ter-
cluding conflicts between nation states, communal disturbances,
rain and patterns of regional and tribal loyalties. Aid programmes
illegal trafficking, piracy, terrorism, insurgency and resource de-
worked better if decentralised, but funds needed to be injected di-
pletion. While the strategic role of the Gulf was based on its oil
rectly and linked with stringent execution targets and performance
resources, society was undergoing rapid change, economic and
monitoring.
demographic developments were intensifying, and there was a growing awareness of human rights issues.
The approach of the United States would be conditioned by the forthcoming Quadrennial Defense Review which would examine
The security environment was now a major focus for discussion
both state and asymmetric threats and the capacity of partners to
at Gulf Cooperation Council summits – involving redefinition of the
meet them. In the Gulf, strengthening partnerships, dealing with
role of the armed forces, development of military equipment and
daily threats such as improvised explosive devices, state support
capabilities, new concepts of joint operations and, politically, joint
for non-state actors, cyber and maritime threats required not only
defence policies.
funding for key programmes but reinforcing national synergies
A similar effort was needed in Afghanistan to recalibrate coali-
and capabilities. In Afghanistan, a ‘whole of government’ approach
tion efforts so as to meet the objectives of local control of security
would be pursued, drawing in civilian professionals so as to create
forces, development of the police force, judiciary and court system,
long-term stability.
(l–r) Alexander Vershbow, Assistant Secretary for International Security Affairs, US Department of Defense; Brigadier-General H.R. McMaster, Chief, Concept Development and Experimentation, Training and Doctrine Command, US Army; Consulting Senior Fellow, IISS; Brigadier Abdulrahman Al Hadoud, Director of Military Intelligence, Kuwait Armed Services; and Karl W. Eikenberry, Ambassador of the US to Afghanistan
The Manama Dialogue 2009 | 63
of bilateral activities to achieve multilateral effects. This was
inclusive architecture meeting the concerns and interests
occurring in shared early warning, air and missile defence,
of all parties. However, for the time being the region
and achievement of a common operational picture.
would have to make do with what he called ‘the Realist
Dr Mohammed Abdul Ghaffar, Adviser to the King of
Perspective’ – ‘making the best of what we have, rather than
Bahrain on Diplomatic Affairs, and Chairman of the Bahrain
striving for an unreachable goal’. He outlined steps towards
Centre for Strategic International and Energy Studies, said
the eventual goal, including the building of mutual confi-
the Gulf should aspire to ‘logical’ security arrangements
dence and ensuring the region had ‘a credible voice in its
which would involve the GCC countries, Iran, Iraq and
own security’. The GCC needed a new strategic concept set-
influential outside powers. This would produce a stable,
ting out a vision of its role in regional security.
BREAK-OUT GROUP 2: Iraq and the Region The session agreed that Iraq had travelled a
government with a five-year term and a
backed regime change in Baghdad in 2003,
long way in a positive direction over the last
democratic mandate.
but is uneasy that Iraq has been unwilling unambiguously to agree to the demarcation
two years. There had been a marked decline
Relations between the United States and
in violence and instability as well as sectari-
Iraq are now shaped by the Status of Forces
an or sub-national identities. Iraq had passed
Agreement passed by the Iraqi parliament
Iraq is one of Turkey’s top foreign policy
through occupation and civil strife and was
in November 2008. The fact that Iraq did
issues and forms a central part of its aim
heading towards a position where it could
not face a security vacuum when US troops
to have zero problems with its neighbours.
completely reclaim its own sovereignty.
withdrew from the cities in June 2009 indi-
Turkey kept its embassy in Baghdad open
cates the capacity of the Iraqi armed forces to
throughout the post-war violence and man-
control the country.
aged to keep an equal distance from all Iraq’s
With the completion of the current round for foreign bids to invest in the oil industry,
of borders.
Iraq was poised to make the shift from eco-
Relations with neighbours have in the
communities. Turkey continually urged
nomic backwater to regional powerhouse.
past been volatile and unstable, driven by
Iraq’s Sunni population to take part in the
The next stage would be national elections
fear, economic competition and sectarian
reconciliation process. Overall, the break-
in March 2010. While the aftermath may see
rivalries. Even today some regional pow-
out group was optimistic about the future
a messy and prolonged process of govern-
ers are apprehensive. For example, Iraq’s
of Iraq but it indentified continuing tensions
ment formation, the result should be a new
relations with Kuwait are mixed: Kuwait
between Iraq and its neighbours.
(l–r) Sheikh Thamer Ali Al Sabah, Vice President, National Security Bureau, Kuwait; Murat Ozcelik, Ambassador of Turkey to Iraq; Sadiq Al Rikabi, Political Adviser, Prime Minister’s Office, Iraq; Dr Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS–US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East; and Jeffrey Feltman, Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State
BREAK-OUT GROUP 3: Piracy and Maritime Security Because of the geo-strategic importance of
cern has prompted unprecedented multina-
the region to trade and energy flows, and
tional naval intervention, with contributions
the continued high frequency of attacks on
from 17 states.
authority in Somalia. Nevertheless, the group heard that international naval patrolling combined
merchant vessels there, piracy has continued
The group heard that in Southeast Asia,
with defensive measures on the part of
to constitute a significant security concern
closer cooperation among littoral states
merchant vessels had significantly dis-
in the Gulf of Aden, and indeed the wider
helped to reduce the problem of piracy in the
rupted and deterred piratical activities:
western Indian Ocean, over the last year.
Malacca Strait to negligible levels. But in the
in 2008, the success rate for pirate attacks
Maintaining free access through the Strait
Somali case, naval action can only address
was approximately 30% for all attempted
and ensuring unimpeded transit remain vi-
the symptoms and not the causes of piracy,
boardings; by late 2009, the rate had been
tal for global well-being. International con-
which are rooted in the collapse of political
reduced to 15%. However, only half of ves-
64 | The 6th IISS Regional Security Summit
sels attacked successfully in recent months
There was agreement in the group that,
current anti-piracy efforts, multinational na-
had adhered to International Maritime Or-
while Somali piracy continues to pose a
val forces are engaged in an unprecedented
ganisation (IMO) guidelines.
serious menace to shipping, wider mari-
level of diplomatic, military collaboration
Efforts to coordinate national maritime
time security challenges should not be
and coordination. This cooperation may
contributions take the form of the Shared
ignored. These challenges include traffick-
have wider consequences in terms of build-
Awareness and Deconfliction (SHADE)
ing, smuggling and the spectre of maritime
ing confidence among the navies of states
Committee and UN-IMO contact groups.
terrorism. Concern was expressed over the
that are not all formal allies or even secu-
Improved maritime situational awareness
vulnerability of submarine fibre-optic ca-
rity partners, which could be useful in the
is necessary: this will require better intelli-
bles to disruption.
future. As one participant pointed out: ‘You
gence-sharing.
While there are weaknesses and flaws in
can surge forces, but you cannot surge trust’.
(l–r) Vice-Admiral M.P. Muralidharan, Chief of Personnel, Indian Navy; Vice-Admiral William Gortney, Commander, US Naval Forces, Central Command; Commander, US Fifth Fleet; Lt.-Gen. Desmond Kuek Bak Chye; Chief of Defence Force, Ministry of Defence, Singapore; Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS–Asia; Editor, Adelphis; Corresponding Director for Military Information and Analysis, IISS; and Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope, First Sea Lord and Chief of Naval Staff, Royal Navy, UK
BREAK-OUT GROUP 4: Non-State Actors in Regional Security The group heard that the phenomenon of
several supportive MPs. Its new manifesto
the difficulty of dealing with NSAs in Paki-
Non-State Actors (NSAs) was of increasing
placed more emphasis on its Lebanese con-
stan. Military operations in Swat and North
importance as such groups were proliferat-
text and underplayed its relationship with
Waziristan had proceeded well: the return of
ing, with greater inter-action between them
Iran. It possessed a strong military arsenal
2.6 million displaced persons in 4½ months
and implications for relations between coun-
including anti-ship missiles, with rumours
was without parallel. A distinction had to be
tries and within wider regions. For example,
of anti-aircraft missiles. There was little sign
made between the Pakistani Taliban – which
concerns about insurgency in Yemen could
that it would disarm, as required by UN
started by supporting the Afghan Taliban
affect relations between Yemen and Saudi
resolutions.
and were now opposing the Pakistani state
Arabia and between Saudi Arabia and Iran,
In Pakistan, new NSAs had emerged in
in opposition to what they saw as a Western
which could in turn impinge upon regional
the last five years, with limited objectives
agenda – and the Afghan Taliban, a product
security. Such effects could be exacerbated if
but having links with international NSAs,
of the anti-Soviet mujahadeen which the
NSAs were serving a foreign agenda.
especially al-Qaeda. A wave of terrorism
West had helped create in the 1980s. Alli-
In Lebanon, Hizbullah was the domi-
had killed about 2,000 civilians and 2,250
ances between them had allowed the Afghan
nant Shia party but had links with non-Shia
military personnel and had caused massive
Taliban to gain sanctuary in Pakistan. For the
groups, and worked patiently to a long-term
damage. It was suggested that the actions
time being, Pakistan’s main focus was direct-
timescale with wide political appeal. It had
of the United States, the NATO-led forces
ed against the Pakistani groups.
two ministers in the new government and
in Afghanistan and possibly India enhanced
(l–r) Professor Aboumohammad Asgarkhani, Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Tehran; Dr Michael C. Williams, Under Secretary-General and Special Coordinator for Lebanon, United Nations; General Mansour Al Turki, Spokesperson, Interior Ministry, Saudi Arabia; Dr Mamoun Fandy, Senior Fellow for Gulf Security and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East; and Lt.-Gen. Muhammed Mustafa Khan, Chief of the General Staff, Pakistan
The Manama Dialogue 2009 | 65
66 | The 6th IISS Regional Security Summit
See videos and transcripts online
2010
7TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT, 3–5 DECEMBER
The Manama Dialogue 2010
Hillary Rodham Clinton, Secretary of State, US
The drivers and dynamics of regional security in the Gulf
and the linkages between security and development were
region and their links to global strategic affairs were once
the main themes of these debates, which attracted consid-
again the subjects of intense debates at the 7th IISS Regional
erable attention.
Security Summit: The Manama Dialogue held in Manama, Bahrain, from 3–5 December. The largest number to date
Opening dinner
of top government officials, military officers and seasoned
In the presence of His Royal Highness the Crown Prince
analysts of international and regional affairs from the
of Bahrain Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa and His Majesty
Middle East, Asia, Europe and North America discussed
King Abdullah of Jordan, John Chipman, IISS Director-
the main sources of instability in the region, detailed
General and Chief Executive, opened the proceedings
existing responses to cope with and counter them, and
by noting that privatised defence diplomacy in fora such
shared ideas for greater security cooperation and dialogue.
as the Manama Dialogue allow for a candid exchange of
The summit took place against a backdrop of significant
views in a world increasingly defined by the ‘fluidity
processes and events, including the ongoing formation of a
and dynamism of contemporary strategic realities’. He
government in Iraq, massive arms sales to the Gulf states,
explained that ‘the IISS has no agenda in mounting the
the WikiLeaks disclosures and a nuclear meeting between
Manama Dialogue, other than to create a forum where the
Iran and the P5+1 grouping. This provided a rich context for
agenda can be set by those responsible for security and
the discussions but also for the well-established Al-Arabiya
foreign policy and to have those perspectives seriously and
televised debate and for the new ABC-Bloomberg televised
un-polemically debated with top analysts and experts’.
debate that preceded the official conference proceed-
Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, gave the
ings. The situation in Yemen, Iran’s nuclear programme,
opening address. She reiterated the US commitment to the
regional security cooperation, transnational security issues
stability and development of the region and to the security
68 | The 7th IISS Regional Security Summit
Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa, Professor François Heisbourg and King Abdullah of Jordan on their way to the opening dinner
of its allies, stressing that the US has ‘invested blood and
was ‘still committed’ to President Obama’s offer of engage-
treasure to protect those stakes, those friendships and
ment with Iran, adding that Iran had ‘the right to a peaceful
those vital national security interests’ and will continue
nuclear programme’. She urged Iran to make the choice to
doing so. She also called for a broader definition of security
‘restore the confidence of the international community and
that included development, diversification, and investment
live up to [its] obligations’ as a peaceful nuclear power.
in human resources and human security.
Responding to a question on US democracy policy by
Secretary Clinton elaborated on the key principles of US
Dr Alanoud Al Sharekh, IISS Senior Fellow for Regional
engagement in the region: respect for national sovereignty,
Politics, Secretary Clinton argued that the US continued
security partnerships, freedom of navigation, commit-
to advocate democracy but was adopting a comprehen-
ment to human security and nuclear non-proliferation. She
sive approach that valued institution-building as much as
welcomed Iraq’s progress towards full sovereignty and
elections. Professor François Heisbourg, IISS Chairman,
forming an inclusive cabinet, saying the US was committed
asked about the significance of the WikiLeaks disclosures
to help Iraq achieve stability and self-reliance, and call-
and other cyber-security issues for diplomacy and national
ing on the Gulf states to upgrade their relations with Iraq
security. Secretary Clinton explained that such breaches
to help its regional integration. She envisioned ‘a future
were a regrettable downside of the need to share infor-
in which Iraq does not pose a threat to regional security,
mation more broadly, because information stove-piping
but instead a strength to it’. Secretary Clinton hoped that
could lead governments to miss gathering threats, as hap-
current efforts to improve defence cooperation against
pened with the 11 September 2001 attacks. In response to
conventional and unconventional threats, including in the
a question from Mark Fitzpatrick, IISS Senior Fellow for
areas of missile and air defence and maritime security,
Non-Proliferation, about US expectations for nuclear talks
would be sustained. She noted that such help goes both
with Iran, Secretary Clinton said that ‘Iran is entitled to
ways, praising the roles of Bahrain, the UAE, Jordan and
the peaceful use of civil nuclear energy’, but she stressed
Egypt in dealing with Afghanistan, Iraq and other humani-
the concerns of the international community. She warned
tarian crises. She urged continued commitment and focus
that ‘if anyone in Iran believes that either acquiring nuclear
on Yemen and reaffirmed America’s commitment to a two-
weapons or the break-out capacity for nuclear weapons
state solution between Israelis and Palestinians.
will make Iran stronger and more dominant in the region,
Secretary Clinton directly addressed the Iranian del-
that is an absolutely wrong calculation. It will trigger an
egation led by the Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki,
arms race that will make the region less stable and more
which had considerable significance given the nuclear talks
uncertain, and will cause serious repercussions far beyond
that were occurring three days later. She said that the US
the Gulf.’ The Manama Dialogue 2010 | 69
King Abdullah II, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
Keynote speech
Defence, King Abdullah responded that Jordan maintained
King Abdullah of Jordan delivered the keynote speech
strong bilateral relations with the GCC states but also with
on Saturday morning. He made an impassioned plea for
NATO countries. Joint training and exercises were impor-
peace between Israelis and Palestinians and reiterated the
tant to create confidence between soldiers in real-time
terms of the Arab Peace Initiative that offers full peace in
conflict, not simply as a continuation of existing relations.
exchange for a full Israeli withdrawal. ‘This opportunity
Military integration was key to achieving faster deployment
cannot last forever’, he cautioned, noting that geographic
and better performance on the battlefield. He deplored the
and demographic changes ‘are threatening the essence of
lack of multilateral defence cooperation in the Middle East,
the initiative: a two-state solution, which will guarantee
despite good bilateral relations, but saw this as a reflection
the Palestinians the freedom and statehood they have long
of the lack of regional peace, which also constrained other
been denied, and will ensure for Israel the security it seeks’.
important forms of integration and development.
He warned that radical forces would prevail if peace is not attained, dragging the Middle East into greater turmoil.
First plenary
Expressing support for the US-led efforts to jumpstart
The first plenary session, entitled ‘Regional Security
peace talks, he noted that Israel’s refusal to extend a
Cooperation’, offered three visions for achieving regional
moratorium on settlement building had undermined
stability.
existing good will. ‘We do not need new solutions. We
Bemoaning the fact that the Gulf region was being taken
need will, we need commitment and we need courage to
advantage of because of its natural wealth, Manouchehr
make hard decisions,’ he argued.
Mottaki, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, considered
Lord Powell of Bayswater, IISS Council Member, asked
that external actors were sowing discord and spoke of
about the consequences of not reaching peace. ‘Absolute
‘evil intentions of planned mischief’ to create instability in
disaster,’ King Abdullah responded, adding that there
the Gulf region. Iran instead believed that the best way to
could be a time when the two-state solution would not be
ensure stability was to engineer trust among local nations
viable anymore but stressing nonetheless that the window
and ‘indigenise’ regional security. To Iran, power and poli-
of opportunity was still open. He saw linkages between the
tics was not a zero-sum game. He insisted that Iran was no
Arab–Israeli conflict and a host of other issues that were
threat to its neighbours because of their Muslim character,
exacerbated by the failure to reach peace. ‘Fortress Israel’,
and instead supported the development and stability of its
he said, was a mindset that prevented Israelis from project-
Arab neighbours. ‘Your power is our power. Our power
ing themselves into the future and realising the benefits of
is your power,’ he told them. Countering accusations that
peace and regional integration.
Iran was seeking a nuclear military capability, he asserted
In response to a question on military cooperation by Lord Astor of Hever, UK Under Secretary of State for 70 | The 7th IISS Regional Security Summit
that Iran was exercising its rights under the NPT to support its own development.
(l–r): Manouchehr Mottaki, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Iran; Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohamed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain; and Ahmet Davutoğlu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Turkey
Sheikh Khalid Bin Hamed, Minister of Foreign Affairs
example the complete turn-around in Syrian–Turkish rela-
of Bahrain, portrayed Bahrain as ‘an active, reasonable,
tions in recent years. Echoing King Abdullah’s speech, he
responsible player in the international arena’ in an oth-
asserted that ‘the core of regional peace in our region is the
erwise unsettled region. He stressed its commitment to
Arab–Israeli conflict ... We do not want a new roadmap; we
its GCC partners and its allies beyond the region. Sheikh
want to see the end of the road’. Recognising the GCC as a
Khalid called the deteriorating situation in Yemen the
central actor in the Middle East, Davutoğlu pledged that
most immediate challenge facing the Gulf region, saying
Turkey would continue to deepen the strategic relationship
‘we simply cannot afford to have it succumb to extrem-
with its members. The complexity of current security issues
ism and continued unrest’. He also underlined the threat
and their linkages to global affairs required new thinking.
of piracy, and welcomed international efforts to counter it.
Hoping that the nuclear negotiations between Iran and
In addition, he noted that concerns over Iran’s nuclear pro-
the P5+1 group would be fruitful, Davutoğlu reaffirmed
gramme were a cause of tension and instability and called
Turkey’s opposition to nuclear weapons in the region and
for a successful outcome to the nuclear talks. He suggested
its support for peaceful nuclear energy.
that an international civilian nuclear-fuel bank would best
Responding to a question from Raghida Dergham,
meet the interests of Iran and the international community.
Senior Diplomatic Correspondent and Columnist of Al
Echoing Hillary Clinton’s speech, Sheikh Khalid called for
Hayat, Mottaki indicated that Iran supported the establish-
‘incorporating Gulf security within a broad comprehen-
ment of a multilateral nuclear-fuel bank and that, given
sive regional picture’ that acknowledged the positive and
Iran’s recent nuclear achievements, it would want to host
adverse effects of globalisation and economic development
a branch on Iranian soil. Davutoğlu agreed but warned
on stability. For the Gulf states, these range from trans-
about a new monopoly on alternative energy resources.
national security issues to economic diversification and nurturing human talent.
Second plenary
Ahmet Davutoğlu, Minister of Foreign Affairs of
The second plenary, ‘Regional Conflicts and Outside
Turkey, detailed Turkey’s vision for regional security. He
Powers’, offered an opportunity to examine the conflicts
too favoured a broader definition of security not limited to
that plague the Middle East and the role of outside actors
military and defence matters. Instead of a reactive approach
in fuelling or resolving them. Franco Frattini, Minister for
to security problems, he argued for a ‘visionary’, upstream
Foreign Affairs for Italy, noted that the region’s security
one based on four principles: security for all, political
architecture remained fragmentary, even as security
dialogue, economic interdependency, and multicultural
challenges have grown in number and complexity.
existence. The solution to the region’s crises necessitates
Traditional bilateral cooperation was no longer enough
applying this methodology, Davutoğlu argued, using as an
to progress and must evolve into genuine partnerships The Manama Dialogue 2010 | 71
(l–r): Dr Abu Bakr Al Qirbi, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen; General James Mattis, Commander, US Central Command; and Franco Frattini, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Italy
built on trust and shared interests. Italy too approached
sanctions and engagement fail to convince Iran to stop its
regional issues from a holistic perspective, Frattini said.
nuclear pursuits, General Mattis urged that more time be
‘Security is not only about military capacity; it is also
given to the current track before considering the use of
about institution building, ownership, social cohesion,
force. Responding to a question from Dr Chipman, Dr Al
rights and partnerships.’
Qirbi detailed the economic and development assistance
Dr Abu Bakr Al Qirbi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of
that Yemen was receiving through the Friends of Yemen
Yemen, urged the audience not to assume that regional
grouping and bilaterally from the GCC states. Such help
conflicts were necessarily the doing of local actors and that
reflected a growing global and regional awareness of
outside powers were necessarily doing good by insert-
Yemen’s multidimensional needs. He insisted ‘Yemen is
ing themselves in them. Today’s conflicts were no longer
not weak. The government is in control.’
geographically or strategically contained: Yemen may be suffering from internal woes but it was also affected by
Third plenary
the Arab–Israeli conflict, piracy and other security chal-
The third plenary, ‘Strategic Reassurance and Deterrence
lenges. Dr Al Qirbi prescribed three principles to deal with
in the Region’, showcased the various security strategies
conflicts in the Middle East: respect for the sovereignty
that states can employ to defend themselves.
and independence of states; no foreign imposition of solu-
Teo Chee Hean, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister
tions but rather support for indigenous ones; and a broad
for Defence, Singapore, explained that his country’s
understanding of conflict that considers economic and gov-
interest in the Gulf stemmed from ‘the recognition that
ernance factors.
the complex security challenges we face today require
General James Mattis, Commander, US Central
multinational and cooperative responses that involve
Command, sought to redefine what an external power was.
all the stakeholders’. Hoping to inspire his audience,
Rather than focus on geography in the age of globalisation
he proceeded to explain how Singapore and other
and interdependency, he urged the audience to focus on
Southeast Asian nations built a security architecture
values and norms and call ‘external’ a power that sought to
amid a complex international and regional picture. By
sow instability and division. He too believed that partner-
enshrining the principles of national sovereignty and
ships were the best mechanism to ensure stability. Using
non-interference without over-formalising their security
naval cooperation as an example, he detailed how navies
cooperation, ASEAN has allowed its members to focus
from several nations were working together to counter
on their national development. Teo Chee Hean explained:
piracy off the Somali coast.
‘Apart from deterrence and diplomacy, the story of
Asked by Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, Professor of Political Science, UAE University, about a Plan B should 72 | The 7th IISS Regional Security Summit
ASEAN would not be complete without a third ‘‘D’’, and that ‘‘D’’ is development.’
(l–r): Dr Liam Fox, Secretary of State for Defence, UK; Teo Chee Hean, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence, Singapore; and HH Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Minister of Foreign Affairs, UAE
HH Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, UAE
Fourth plenary
Foreign Minister, provided the perspective of a small but
The fourth plenary session, entitled ‘The Changing
rapidly growing nation eager to protect its development.
International Framework and Regional Security’, was an
‘The best guarantor of security is sustainable economic and
opportunity to examine the global context that defines
social development’, Sheikh Abdullah said. Referring to
contemporary power dynamics.
Qatar’s successful bid to host the 2022 Football World Cup,
Sheikh Dr Muhammad Al Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah,
he explained that the UAE and other Gulf states adopted
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs
a positive and alternative vision of the Gulf’s place in the
of Kuwait, insisted that the main constant in interna-
world. Commenting on the challenges to world order and
tional affairs was the permanent state of change in the
to Middle East security, he insisted that ‘we cannot win an
fundamentals and dynamics of power. Global power has
ideological war except through changing mindsets’.
shifted dramatically in recent years with the rise of new
Outlining his government’s commitment to the Gulf,
powers and the impact of the global financial crisis. The
Liam Fox, the UK Secretary of State for Defence, stressed
new multipolar reality has tangible aspects, ranging from
that the UK took the interests and security of its regional
Qatar’s successful bid to stage the 2022 World Cup to the
partners seriously. While detailing the UK defence regional
UAE beating Germany to host the International Renewable
involvement, he pledged that the UK would continue to
Energy Agency. Sheikh Muhammad also noted the chang-
‘work closely with our Gulf allies and the United States’,
ing nature of threats, from war-centric to more diffuse yet
and ‘maintain the political will and military capabil-
more pernicious forms like environmental degradation
ity required to deter regional aggression’. Turning to the
and transnational challenges. New actors, from NGOs
Iranian nuclear programme, he affirmed that ‘an Iranian
to non-state actors, increasingly influenced international
nuclear-weapons capability will not be tolerated by the
affairs as well. Another change on the horizon comes from
international community’.
the divergent demographics of the North and the rest of
In response to a question from Jean-Claude Mallet, IISS Council Member, about the meaning of Western reassur-
the world, which will pose challenges in terms of income, integration and migration.
ance in the Gulf, Liam Fox explained that lack of resolve on
Kevin Rudd, the Foreign Minister of Australia, found
the part of the Western powers regarding Iran would send
that the geopolitical and economic rise of Asia had pro-
a negative message to their local allies. To a question about
found consequences for the world and the Middle East as
regional security by Hayfa Ali Al Mattar of the Foreign
relations deepen between new power centres. Describing
Ministry of Bahrain, both Teo Chee Hean and Sheikh
Australia as a middle power with global interests, he
Abdullah believed that the Gulf region can learn some les-
called for a more sophisticated understanding of the
sons from Asia.
new security dynamics. He urged Iran to reflect on the The Manama Dialogue 2010 | 73
(l–r): Sheikh Dr Muhammad Al Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kuwait; and Kevin Rudd, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Australia
impact of its nuclear programme on global security and
that Saudi Arabia should become a shareholder rather
supported the establishment of a nuclear-weapons-free
than a mere consumer in such a scheme. He concluded by
zone in the Middle East. Finally, he advised Gulf nations
welcoming the consensus that emerged throughout the
to derive lessons from the ASEAN experiment to build a
conference on the need for a broader understanding of
stable regional order.
security. Responding to a question by Ali Al Shihabi, Chairman,
Fifth plenary
Rasmala Investment Bank, Prince Turki asserted that for-
In the final plenary, ‘The Changing Nature of Regional
eign troops posed a problem in countries like Iraq where
Security Issues’, broad lessons about the interplay of global
they forced themselves upon the local population, but not
politics and regional security were outlined.
in the Arabian Peninsula where agreements governed their
Carl Bildt, Sweden’s Minister for Foreign Affairs,
presence. To Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, Professor of Political
insisted that ‘globalisation is truly the megatrend of our
Science, UAE University; and an IISS member’s concern
times’. In an age where ‘there is no longer any national
about the possible militarisation and nuclearisation of the
security that is purely national’, the challenge was to man-
Gulf, Prince Turki stressed the Gulf’s commitment to non-
age flows of people, goods, capital, ideas and threats. In
proliferation and argued that making the Middle East a
the absence of reformed and better world governance,
region free of nuclear weapons was an overriding priority,
however, regional security arrangements are getting
one that must embraced by all players.
increasingly important in this regard. Asia and Europe
After Khalid Fahad Al Khater, Director of the Strategic
are good examples of that. In the Middle East, he believed
Dialogues Department of the GCC Secretariat, raised a
‘the GCC countries will be the core of the coming regional
question about the status of Arab–Israeli peace, Minister
cooperation structure of the wider region’. This should one
Bildt reaffirmed the Western commitment to reaching a
day lead to ‘the full integration of both Iran and Israel with
peaceful solution. He added that ‘the reality of the Arab
the entire region’ since regional prosperity was closely
Peace Initiative has not yet sunk in, in Israeli society’, and
linked to peace.
urged Arab states to do more to convince the Israeli popu-
Prince Turki Al Faisal Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud,
lation of the benefits of peace.
Chairman of the Board of Directors of the King Faisal
To a question about Turkey’s future role by Mohammad
Center for Research and Islamic Studies, agreed with
Al Sager, Chairman, Council for Arab and International
Bildt’s concluding point, saying that Israel had a choice to
Relations, Minister Bildt affirmed the country’s importance
make between democracy and peace or apartheid and con-
in today’s world, adding that ‘I do not think we will be able
flict. Welcoming the idea of a nuclear-fuel bank, he recalled
to think of the global role of the EU some years down the
a conversation with Manouchehr Mottaki, who suggested
road without Turkey.’
74 | The 7th IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Carl Bildt, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sweden; and Prince Turki Al Faisal Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Chairman, Board of Directors, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION I: Securing Yemen’s Future The challenges facing Yemen were high-
the security dimension. A possible full Ye-
government must be able to achieve politi-
lighted in this break-out group. Yemen
meni integration into the GCC could help
cal compromise, especially with regards to
has long dealt with issues concerning al-
tackle the high unemployment rate, while
the Houthis. The only viable solution to
Qaeda, the instability in the south, and
investing in modern education and prom-
this conflict and other internal crises is a
the Houthis. However, the core of those
ising sectors in the economy such as tour-
Yemeni solution.
problems was described as stemming
ism could alleviate the dire situation in
from economic and governance failures.
the country.
Despite the challenges confronting Yemen, the country is not a failed state. It is
Yemen is a rugged and barren country
Another delegate pointed to the fact
still an important member of the interna-
whose population is constantly growing
that many of the issues facing Yemen also
tional community. It is, nevertheless, still
but whose natural resources are in con-
stemmed from political factors that must be
facing a rising tide of new challenges in the
stant decline, especially when it comes to
addressed. In particular al-Qaeda should
forms of piracy, insurgency, and immigra-
oil production, still a main source of Ye-
not be portrayed as a Yemen-based group,
tion from neighbouring Somalia. Yemen is
men’s income. Stability in Yemen is de-
but a global problem that is not exclusive
in acute need of global and regional aid,
pendent on development. Thus the inter-
to Yemen. The solution is to maintain co-
and only through the help and support
national community as well as Friends of
operative efforts not only domestically,
of the international community will it be
Yemen must all strive to help the country
but also to maintain international com-
able to overcome its problems and secure
overcome its challenges and look beyond
mitment and involvement. Also, Yemen’s
its future.
(l–r): Professor Vitaly Naumkin, Director, Institute of Oriental Studies, The Russian Academy of Sciences; Michael Crawford, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East and South Asia, IISS; Prince Turki Al Faisal Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Chairman, Board of Directors, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies; and Abu Bakr Al Qirbi, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen
The Manama Dialogue 2010 | 75
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION II: Maritime Security Operations and International Cooperation The importance of maritime security to the
were being held on 27 hijacked ships, the
weeks in Bahrain and bilaterally, even
Middle East was well described in the sec-
group heard. One delegate noted that ‘pi-
between ostensible rivals such as the US
ond break-out group. Some 90% of all glob-
rates are adapting as we adapt’.
and Iran.
Combined Task Force 151, which
While other maritime security issues,
comes under the command of NAVCENT
such as environmental protection and
Yet, the difficulty in maintaining the
and is currently commanded by Kuwait,
fishing rights, were mentioned, piracy
security of this trade was also highlight-
is deployed to deal with the problem,
dominated the group’s attention. The well-
ed. Between 23,000 and 25,000 ships pass
while NATO, the EU and independent
rehearsed argument that the solution to
through the Internationally Recommended
deployers India, China, Russia, Iran and
the problem ultimately lay on land was
Transit Corridor annually, a thin strip of
Malaysia continue to patrol and convoy.
widely agreed upon, with the group con-
ocean that commercial shipping is encour-
This has led to regular interaction be-
curring that a comprehensive approach to
aged to use, but piracy continues to flour-
tween the various navies and practitio-
Somalia would be the most effective rem-
ish in the Gulf region. Piracy has reached
ners, both through multilateral fora such
edy. However, in the meantime the prob-
record levels this year: 127 piracy incidents
as the Shared Awareness and Deconflic-
lem persisted and the navies would retain
have occurred in 2010 and 538 hostages
tion group (SHADE) that meets every six
their presence.
al trade travels by sea; for India, the group heard, that figure rises to 95% by value.
(l–r): Vice Admiral R.K. Dhowan, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff, India; Vice Admiral Mark Fox, Commander, US Naval Forces, Central Command; Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS–Asia, Director for Military Information and Analysis, IISS; Peter MacKay, Minister of National Defence, Canada; and Rear Admiral Bruno Nielly, Commander, French Forces in the Indian Ocean
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION III: Iraq and the Region The challenges facing Iraq were discussed
Many of the participants argued that sec-
Relations between Iraq and Iran were
in detail in the third special session. While
tarianism remains a hindrance to a unified
discussed in detail. Iran was cited as en-
violence has largely declined, Iraq remains a
government in Iraq. Strong governance is
couraging sectarian division to ensure a
fragile state.
necessary to ensure Iraq’s sovereignty. The
weak Iraq, in order to destabilise the re-
The current political instability stems
group called for an inclusive government
gion. An Iranian delegate refuted these
from the prolonged, messy process of form-
that incorporates all ethnic and religious
claims, and stressed that Iran sought to
ing a government. While a tentative power-
groups in Iraq. Some argued that this would
uphold the Iraqi Constitution. Iran was
sharing agreement was reached in Novem-
require the revision of the Iraqi Constitution,
called upon by some of the Arab Gulf par-
ber 2010, the eight-month political impasse
which was drafted in 2005 without the full
ticipants in the group to play a more con-
has threatened regional security. The es-
support of Sunni groups. Several partici-
structive role in Iraq.
tablishment of a unity government in Iraq
pants said the constitution is a foundation
The group was hopeful for the future of
is therefore essential to the maintenance of
for sectarianism in Iraq and does not pro-
Iraq, but cautioned that rising sectarian ten-
regional stability.
mote political reconciliation.
sions could destabilise the country.
(l–r): Dr Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS–US, Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East; Murat Mercan, Chairman, Foreign Affairs Commission, Grand National Assembly, Turkey; HRH Prince Naef Bin Ahmed Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Adviser to Crown Prince Sultan, Saudi Arabia
76 | The 7th IISS Regional Security Summit
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION IV: Military Cooperation in the Region During this special session, security experts
defence. Speakers emphasised the impor-
Military strategy and tactics were also
and delegates discussed Military Coop-
tance of enhancing defence capabilities of US
discussed at the session, with a speaker not-
eration in the Gulf, emphasising its impor-
partners in the Gulf through early warning
ing that the absence of a ‘grand strategy’
tance amidst renewed threats in the region.
of sale and transfer of defence equipment, as
made it difficult to translate goals into effec-
Speakers noted that while there has been
GCC states were also encouraged to take on
tive military plans. The absence of a unified
progress in recent years in terms of regional
a more active role in defence.
vision between ISAF members in Afghani-
engagement in multilateral missions, as
Speakers at the session also highlighted
stan was raised as an example of the costs of
well as regional progress in command and
the importance of deterrence as a tool of ac-
a fragmented vision. This led to a discussion
control (exemplified by Bahrain’s imminent
tive conflict-prevention, stating that Gulf
on the importance of setting out clear goals
assumption of the command of Combined
states should remain equipped with en-
prior to war and an agreement that a com-
Task Force 152 for the second time), these
hanced and advanced weapons capabilities
mon understanding of such goals was neces-
developments have tended to take place
in order to drive up the cost of potential
sary for successful military cooperation.
through non-regional frameworks or with
aggression. It was also noted that the com-
The growing threat of cybercrime was
outside partners. This is due to several fac-
mon purpose of the United States and its
also discussed, with a speaker stating that
tors that effectively impede multilateral de-
Gulf allies to protect state sovereignty and
it was time to look beyond military coop-
fence cooperation. These factors range from
national freedoms is also a deterrent against
eration and towards a more holistic form of
the historical to the bureaucratic and politi-
future threats. Enhanced peacetime coopera-
security cooperation that took into account
cal, and lead to a lack of movement towards
tion and tactical training were also cited as
threats stemming from new technology.
more seamless military cooperation – partic-
important towards ensuring swift military
The vulnerability of GCC states was raised
ularly in the areas of air- and ballistic-missile
victories in the event of a future attack.
in this regard.
(l–r): Lt.-Gen. Waheed Arshad Chaudhry, Chief of the General Staff, Pakistan; General Sir David Richards, Chief of the Defence Staff, UK; Andrew Shapiro, Assistant Secretary for Political-Military Affairs, US Department of State; Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS; and Lt.-Gen. Sheikh Dr Mohammad Bin Abdullah Al Khalifa, Minister of State for Defence Affairs, Bahrain
The Manama Dialogue 2010 | 77
78 | The 7th IISS Regional Security Summit
See videos and transcripts online
2012
8TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT, 7–9 DECEMBER
The Manama Dialogue 2012
Prince Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa, Crown Prince of Bahrain
The impact of Arab revolutions on the Middle East’s
picture. In several countries, the transformations have exac-
regional order provided the backdrop for the 8th Manama
erbated existing faultlines, including sectarian and political
Dialogue, held in Bahrain on 7–9 December 2012. The
ones. They have increased demands on governments at a
Regional Security Summit, convened after a one-year
time when they are under pressure from budget problems
hiatus, attracted an attendance of senior government
and lagging economic growth. Egypt’s internal problems
officials, military officers, national-security practitioners,
have adversely impacted its regional influence, despite its
political analysts and journalists from the Middle East,
central role in solving the recent Gaza conflict.
Asia, Europe and North America.
The Crown Prince of Bahrain, Prince Salman Bin
Participants reflected on a fast-changing regional secu-
Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa, addressed the Dialogue’s open-
rity agenda, which has significantly broadened in recent
ing dinner, giving a very personal speech which was his
years. Indeed, the Arab transformations, while carrying
first public address to a local or international audience in
hope for better governance and greater political participa-
over a year. He called for face-to-face dialogue with oppo-
tion in the medium term, have also engendered an even
sition parties – a call that they welcomed.
more uncertain regional security landscape. Fierce domestic
The escalating Syrian crisis and its profound regional
competition over identity and power in transitioning coun-
ramifications attracted particular interest. Beyond the fate
tries is reshaping their politics in often unpredictable ways.
of the Assad regime, attention focused on the competition
The fragility of burgeoning democratic systems, the rise
for power inside Syria and its human and other costs; the
of Islamist movements across North Africa, the weakening
concern about a security vacuum and growing radicalisa-
of once-dominant state security services, and a recognition
tion; the potential use of chemical weapons; and the role of
that the transformational process will be long and bumpy
external actors in fuelling the conflict and sponsoring spe-
have added layers of complexity to an already volatile
cific groups and ideologies. As importantly, the audience
80 | The 8th IISS Regional Security Summit
William Hague, Dr John Chipman and the Crown Prince of Bahrain, Prince Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa
focused on the potential of the already existing spillover on
there can be no true security.’ He rejected the sectarian and
Syria’s immediate neighbours to balloon and result in an
political polarisation that poisoned the Kingdom’s politics:
even greater destabilising impact.
‘I am not a prince of Sunni Bahrain; I am not a prince of
The concern over Iran’s nuclear programme and its suspected ambitions among participants and the related
Shia Bahrain. I am a prince of the Kingdom of Bahrain and all mean a great deal to me personally.’
potential for conflict remained acute. The re-election of US
He called for direct talks: ‘I soon hope to see a meet-
President Barack Obama and positive signals from Iran
ing between all sides – and I call for a meeting between all
suggested that the prospects for war had been reduced
sides – as I believe that only through face-to-face contact
and that a window remained opened for diplomatic
will any real progress be made.’ The Crown Prince’s call
engagement. Given the failed diplomatic attempts of 2012,
for dialogue was welcomed by Bahrain’s main opposition
however, a sober sense of what can be achieved hovered.
parties, including Al-Wefaq.
The role of the United States in regional security was
Prince Salman offered thanks to Saudi Arabia and the
also hotly debated. A sense that the US, motivated by the
United Arab Emirates, which had sent troops to ensure
pivot to Asia, domestic constraints and general fatigue
security in the face of any possible aggressor, and to people
with the Middle East, was reducing its commitment to Gulf
who had supported his efforts to promote dialogue with
security was palpable among regional participants. US
the political opposition. He praised the UK which, he said,
speakers strongly rejected this notion, although differences
had stood ‘head and shoulders’ above others, engaging
over the current US approach to Syria indicated a tense
with all stakeholders.
debate in Washington over the right degree and form of involvement in the Middle East.
‘There is more work that we need to do,’ the Crown Prince said. Reform and capacity-building were necessary for the judiciary, so as to create a legal system that was fair,
Opening Dinner
just and inclusive. Laws that went against the protections
In his address to the opening dinner, the Crown Prince
of the constitution needed to be changed. Selective applica-
directly addressed the problems faced by his country since
tion of the law must stop.
the Arab uprisings of 2011. During the protests in Bahrain,
Addressing the opposition, Prince Salman said lead-
the country had been divided, he said, and many wounds
ers and ayatollahs must condemn violence. He added
were still to be healed. He stressed the importance of
that the silent majority, including people who lived in
dialogue to overcome Bahrain’s traumatic divide. ‘Security
mixed Sunni/Shia communities, felt insecure and their
is not the only guarantor of stability,’ he said. ‘Without
voices unheard. Responsible leadership was needed. The
justice there can be no freedom, and without freedom
majority of people wanted a solution that put the events The Manama Dialogue 2012 | 81
Special Opening Session: Global views on Syria
of last year firmly in the past. Political groups must be
would be needed in the immediate aftermath of the end of
reconciled in face-to-face meetings. ‘So we have our work
President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. It was conscious of the
cut out,’ said the Crown Prince. ‘Wishing for peace never
need for regional stability and good relations.
works, but peacemaking does.’
Sabbagh called on Russia and Iran to cease their sup-
Introducing him, John Chipman, IISS Director-General
port for the ‘killing machine’ of the regime, and on Gulf
and Chief Executive, thanked the Kingdom for its support
countries to provide humanitarian relief, especially to
for the Manama Dialogue, which was, he said, ‘not just an
address the huge challenge created by the displacement of
annual summit, but a continuous effort by the IISS to pro-
3 million people. Responding to a question from Dr John
mote international cooperation on matters of security and
Chipman, he expected the United States to recognise the
stability in this region’. He hoped for a ‘transparent and
coalition as have some European and all GCC countries,
influential debate on all matters affecting the future of the
and said the Higher Military Council soon to be formed
Gulf and the wider Middle East region’.
would embrace most of the opposition forces now ranged
Chipman explained that the 2012 summit was pre-
against the regime.
ceded by two Sherpa meetings in Bahrain, in February
However, American reservations were plainly in view
and October, at which officials from many countries
in remarks from Mike Rogers, Chairman of the US House
discussed the issues for the Dialogue to debate. In addi-
Intelligence Committee. While noting that the ‘dangerous
tion, the Institute had strengthened its regional office in
days of desperation’ are starting to take hold, he expressed
Manama and had held numerous international confer-
concern about what might happen on the fall of Assad.
ences, seminars and lectures in Bahrain on geo-economic
Citing the experience of Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, he
issues ranging from currency wars to trade and security
feared that extremist elements of the opposition would
matters. ‘The IISS–Middle East office housed here will
take advantage of a power vacuum and would get control
cover regional issues from the Levant to North Africa, and
of both chemical and conventional weapons. He called for
thematic questions of geo-economics, geostrategy, demo-
transparency about the opposition.
graphics and cyber security amongst others. It will develop
Rogers also said the problem of loose weapons could
further programmes and activities while always support-
be quickly handled with American help and training, and
ing the Manama Dialogue process.’
that there was a debate in Washington about the level of intervention that the US should undertake in Syria. He per-
Syria forum
sonally opposed giving weapons to ‘elements that we don’t
A pre-Dialogue discussion forum tackled the Syrian
understand just yet’, but noted that Washington had pro-
uprising. Mustafa Sabbagh, Secretary-General of the
vided humanitarian aid. Russia, he noted, ‘was in a unique
National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition
place to be helpful, but has not been helpful’. Sabbagh
Forces, said the coalition was building the institutions that
acknowledged that the opposition contained extremist
82 | The 8th IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): William Burns, US Deputy Secretary of State; US Senator John McCain; and US Congressman Charles Ruppersberger
elements, but said they were ‘small and weak’.
democratic reforms; after touching on difficulties in Egypt,
Naci Koru, Turkey’s Deputy Foreign Minister, saw a
Libya, Morocco, and Jordan, he addressed the situation in
grave situation resulting from the regime’s repression,
host-nation Bahrain. Burns emphasised Bahrain’s continued
with a particular effect on Turkey, which had received
importance to the United States as a strategic partner and
135,000 refugees and was being armed with Patriot missiles
long-time friend, and he gave credit to the government
to guard against the risk of attack by missiles armed with
for having begun to implement the recommendations of
chemical warheads. However, Turkey still did not seek to
the independent commission of inquiry into the traumatic
impose a no-fly zone over Syria.
events of 2011 in the country. But it was ‘crucial’, he added,
China’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, Wu Sike, said
‘to move decisively down that path, without violence from
he was concerned by the spillover of the conflict into neigh-
any quarter’. Third, he said that no reform processes in the
bouring Turkey, Israel and Lebanon. He urged support for
Middle East more generally could succeed without a sense
UN diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis, saying a mili-
of economic possibility. Fourth, despite frustrations so far, a
tary solution would only bring greater disasters to Syria
two-state solution to the Israel–Palestine conflict remained a
and the region. He reiterated China’s position that only its
key US priority. While Burns insisted that the Palestinians’
people should determine Syria’s destiny.
successful bid for UN recognition as an observer state was not going to help the situation, he also insisted that
First Plenary Session: The US and the Region
continued Israeli settlement activity ‘continues to corrode’
The overarching theme of the first plenary session
prospects for peace.
concerned the effectiveness and staying power of American
Senator John McCain, who was highly critical of the
engagement in the region. William Burns, US Deputy
Obama administration, followed the Deputy Secretary.
Secretary of State, insisted that ‘for all the logical focus on
‘The message I hear again and again’, McCain said of
pivots’ of US strategic attention to the Asia-Pacific, America
his visits to the region, was that peoples and govern-
could not and would not neglect ‘what is at stake in the
ments wanted greater US engagement and leadership.
Middle East’. He added, however, that ‘America’s chief
‘Unfortunately, there is a visceral sense that they are not
foreign-policy challenge is domestic renewal’ and said that
getting as much support as they desire.’ In particular, he
there is a ‘natural…fatigue’ in the American body politic
argued, America’s failure to intervene earlier and more
after wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But he laid out what he
effectively in Syria was leading to precisely the increase
said would be four continuing US priorities in the Middle
in extremism, brutal regime violence, and now the threat-
East. The first priority was security, and the main problems
ened use of chemical weapons that so many had feared.
concerned ‘Iran’s refusal to meet its nuclear obligations’;
Overall, said McCain, the ‘perception that the United States
Washington was committed to increasing the pressure
is distracted can be very dangerous’, encouraging hard-
‘until it does’. The second concerned political openness and
line elements. Referring to Obama, McCain concluded by The Manama Dialogue 2012 | 83
(l–r): Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bahrain; and Dr Khalid Bin Mohammad Al Attiyah, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of Qatar
saying that ‘if the President does the right thing and leads,
journalist and blogger for Foreign Policy, asked how the US
and takes greater action to support friends and values in
administration could continue to call for a political solution
Syria, he will have my support’.
in Syria now that it has officially recognised the opposition
The third speaker, Democratic Congressman Charles
council as a legitimate representative of the Syrian people.
Ruppersberger, insisted that the idea of a strategic pivot
In response to the questions, Burns said that events
towards Asia-Pacific did not mean ‘we are leaving the
were clearly shifting against the Syrian regime and that
Middle East’. He surveyed several aspects of that contin-
the US remained committed to a negotiated transition,
ued commitment: containment of an Iran that was ‘flexing
but warned that the longer the bloodshed continued, the
its muscles’; an Egyptian president who had construc-
greater the danger of extremism and spillover. To the
tively conducted negotiations between Israel and Hamas,
more general questions about US commitment, he said
but then moved to consolidate excessive power in Egypt;
there was no substitute for American leadership and that
and the potential threat of the Syrian regime using chemi-
the Middle East would remain at the centre of US focus.
cal weapons. Against that threat, he said that Russia could
But McCain remained critical: ‘Pivot is a word that should
have a positive diplomatic role.
never have been used.’ It was true, he said, that Asia-
During the questions and comments, several Arab del-
Pacific required greater US involvement, ‘but to somehow
egates supported McCain’s contention that US engagement
assume that we can pivot away from this part of the world
appears to be wavering. Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdulla of the
is the height of foolishness’.
United Arab Emirates suggested that constant US affirmations that it was not leaving the region suggested, in fact,
Second Plenary Session: Priorities for Regional
that the opposite was true. Dr Ebtesam Al Ktebi, also of
Security
the UAE, echoed that theme, questioning the US long-term
Three sets of priorities dominated the discussion in the
strategy in the region and asking why it has been unable
second session. Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, the
to alter Iranian behaviour. The Bahraini ambassador to
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bahrain, discussed external
France warned of one political transformation to which
security challenges facing the GCC states and Bahrain’s
US leaders appeared blind: as a result of ballots in Tunisia
efforts to overcome domestic challenges. Dr Khalid Bin
and Egypt, hardliners appeared to be taking over the Arab
Mohammad Al Attiyah, Minister of State for Foreign
Awakening, just as a hardline clerical regime had hijacked
Affairs of Qatar, focused on the Syria question.
the Iranian revolution in 1979. François Heisbourg,
Sheikh Khalid described the methodical pace that has
Chairman of the IISS Council, suggested that a transforma-
enabled the GCC to grow resilient in the face of external
tion in the US energy supply would logically diminish the
threats such as those posed by Iran’s nuclear and mis-
importance that the US attaches to the region. Josh Rogin, a
sile programmes and threats to the trade routes and
84 | The 8th IISS Regional Security Summit
sovereignty of GCC states. Notions of security must also
Ambassador-at-Large Yashar Aliyev’s question about the
encompass human security, he said, and address long-term
GCC accepting observer states, Sheikh Khalid said the
needs for food, water and energy that have the potential
current structure would not change. Rejecting the assess-
to provoke a regional crisis. On human security, Bahrain
ment by Dr Seyyed Kazem Sajjadpour, from the School
has recommended that the Arab League establish an Arab
of International Relations in the Iranian Foreign Ministry,
Court of Human Rights.
that the GCC countries had miscalculated in supporting
Domestically, he said his government had initiated
Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran, Sheikh Khalid,
a new stage of reform, and that ‘while implementation
said, at the time, there had been daily threats from Iran
may not be complete, we are resolute to see it through’.
about destabilising GCC states.
Answering questions from the floor, he said issues of capacity, such as in the judicial system, needed to be over-
Third Plenary Session: Intervention and Mediation
come, but that Bahrain was ‘committed to implementing
Prince Abdulaziz Bin Abdullah Al Saud, Deputy Minister
fully all the recommendations’ of the Bahrain Independent
of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia, said that the Kingdom
Commission of Inquiry (BICI), and that reconciliation will
was making strenuous efforts to support regional security
require efforts from all players.
and stability. Referring to the Arab Spring, he said that
Dr Attiyah summarised Qatar’s efforts regarding the for-
violence should cease and that changes in the region should
mation of the Syrian Opposition Coalition and preparations
be organic. Turning to Bahrain, he said that the unity and
for the upcoming Friends of Syria conference in Marrakech.
solidarity of GCC states made them stand together in
He described two sorts of groups in Syria: ‘those who seek
response to recent events. ‘The security and destiny of the
total chaos and those who want controlled chaos.’ To him,
GCC states are one and may not be divided,’ he declared.
the latter meant continued gridlock, but Qatar did not seek
‘Collective security has become a reality’ and no state could
total chaos either. The key, he said, was for countries to
enjoy security and stability on its own. Riyadh supported
‘fly in formation’ toward the objective of democratic Syria,
Manama’s efforts to promote dialogue and undertake
because ‘if we fly solo we won’t get anywhere’.
reforms meeting ‘citizens’ desires’, again without allowing
In the ensuing debate, rather than imposing a no-fly
foreign interference in domestic affairs.
zone in Syria, he said, foreign countries should enable
Turning to Syria, he deplored that this crisis had seen
opposition groups to impose a no-fly zone themselves.
many regional and international initiatives and meetings,
When François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS Council,
all so far unsuccessful due to a lack of international will.
suggested that this could risk anti-aircraft missiles ending
Riyadh looked forward to the international community
up being used by terrorist groups against civilian aircraft,
‘providing the means to resolve [the situation] through
Dr Attiyah insisted that the supply of such weapons could
utilising all necessary measures, whether political, secu-
be properly supervised, but that such transfers would have
rity or humanitarian in support of the Syrian people and
to be authorised by the UN. He parried the suggestion by
their aspirations’.
Professor Volker Perthes, Director of the German Institute
Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary-General of the
for International and Security Affairs, that Qatar was sup-
Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, out-
porting only the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria. He firmly
lined the lessons from Yemen’s crisis and from the GCC’s
opposed bracketing any rebel group as ‘terrorists’, saying
role in accompanying its transition. Aware of the seri-
that this would create a ‘sleeping monster’ and forego the
ousness of Yemen’s slide, the GCC adopted an inclusive
means of changing their philosophy. With regard to chang-
approach, engaging all parties to the dispute. This inter-
ing Russia’s policy toward Syria, he said it was too early to
vention was based on the principle that there should be
declare diplomatic failure, but he suggested that action be
a smooth transfer of power and no subsequent reprisals.
considered through the UN General Assembly to break the
This Gulf Initiative helped Yemen avoid civil war thanks
impasse in the UN Security Council.
to a sequencing of steps. The first phase ended with the
Sheikh Khalid said the GCC would not be declared a
formation of a national government and military/security
union until a special summit for this purpose to be held
committee. A second one is expected to result within two
at an unspecified date in Riyadh; parties were still work-
years in a new parliament. The Gulf Initiative, he said, is a
ing out the means of integration. Answering Azerbaijan
successful model of mediation. The Manama Dialogue 2012 | 85
(l–r): Prince Abdulaziz Bin Abdullah Al Saud, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia; and Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary-General of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf
In contrast to Prince Abdulaziz’s reference to a lack
answered that the national dialogue in Yemen would deal
of international will over Syria, Al Zayani said that GCC
with all remaining political issues. Amy Kellogg, Senior
leaders played an important role in Yemen by assiduous
Foreign Affairs Correspondent at Fox News, asked whether
attention to the process. They had clear and specific objec-
Saudi Arabia was concerned by the apparent stalling of the
tives, and were conscious of the need to be independent.
P5+1 negotiations on Iran, and Riyadh’s position on this.
Lessons included the need for persistent mediation, and
Prince Abdulaziz stated that there should be a time frame
the importance of trust in the mediator.
on the P5+1 talks; these had been going for some time,
Dr Jon Alterman, Director of the Middle East Program
with no results yet. Dr Abdullah El Kuwaiz, Chairman of
at CSIS, asked Prince Abdulaziz his opinion on the ques-
the Fund Manager of ICD Food and Agribusiness Fund,
tion of arming Syrian opposition groups. Prince Abdulaziz
asked what further efforts must be made to ensure stability
said that the outflow of weapons from Libya was a major
in Bahrain. Prince Abdulaziz said that Bahrain was on the
concern; Riyadh didn’t want this replicated in Syria.
right path and urged all parties to cooperate with the gov-
Alterman also asked Al Zayani what the GCC had learned
ernment. The King and Crown Prince were, he said, ‘open
from the struggle to uproot al-Qaeda elements in Yemen.
to an open and constructive dialogue’.
Dr Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center, said, in a question to Al Zayani, that there was no
Fourth Plenary Session: The Influence of Sectarian
collective GCC–US agreement. Rather, security agreements
Politics in Regional Security
were bilateral between regional states and the US. Would it
Dr Chipman began the session by noting that when politics
be worth looking instead at a collective NATO–GCC agree-
become sectarian, they risked becoming dysfunctional.
ment? In response, Al Zayani said that the main lesson from
Moreover, because of the communications revolution,
Yemen was rapid action: every time the international com-
domestic issues in one state could cross into another state.
munity was late in reaching agreements, it inadvertently
William Hague, UK Secretary of State for Foreign and
gave groups like al-Qaeda more space. It was essential to
Commonwealth Affairs, began on an optimistic note: there
expedite agreements as happened in Yemen. Responding
was nothing inevitable about sectarian strife, because dif-
to Dr Sager, he noted the bilateral nature of regional states’
ferent peoples could peacefully coexist and so too could
agreements with the US. In relation to NATO, he high-
diverse states. The example of Europe over the past 200
lighted the participation of some states in the Istanbul
years should offer encouragement. He proceeded to make
Cooperation Initiative. Here again, relations were bilateral.
four observations. Firstly, that sectarianism was not a
Khalid Al Haribi, Director of Tawasul, asked whether
driver of the Arab Spring – rather it was the desire for dig-
reports of the resurgence of old guard elements in Yemen
nity, opportunity and freedom that mobilised people from
undermined the success of the Gulf Initiative. Al Zayani
different walks of life. Meeting these aspirations would be
86 | The 8th IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): William Hague, UK Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs; and Nasser Judeh, Foreign Minister of Jordan
difficult for societies in transition but it was incumbent on
and so irrevocably damage the social fabric of the coun-
all parties to be peaceful and inclusive, and foreign states
try. It was also important to tackle the Palestinian issue,
should respect the popular will. Secondly, sectarian poli-
which he described as the root cause of regional instability.
tics should not be regarded as the defining security issue
Judeh went on to speak about progress in Jordan, which
in a region where national interests, nuclear proliferation
he described as a Middle Eastern ‘melting pot’ society
and the Palestinian issue also loomed large. It was vital,
featuring a parliamentary system within a constitutional
he went on, that in the next year, negotiated progress was
monarchy. He later added that Jordan’s rotation of gov-
made on Syria, the Iranian nuclear issue and a two-state
ernments was a function of its constitution, but that legal
solution for Israel and Palestine – otherwise, 2013 could
changes and institutional innovations promised to herald a
prove to be a very dark year. Thirdly, all states shared an
new era of more stable governments.
interest in dampening sectarian tensions. Syria was the
From the floor, Dr Barham Saleh, former Prime Minister
most pressing case, as every passing week inflicted further
of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government, disagreed with
sectarian wounds on the Syrian body politic. Fourthly,
Judeh regarding the recent triggers of a rise in sectarian
the only way to defuse sectarian tension was by peaceful
identity. He argued that sectarianism has been a feature of
means. This implied a transition towards open societies,
the region for centuries and that it has been strongly felt in
with inclusive systems and equal rights, to ensure the
Iraq for decades prior to the 2003 invasion. He described the
legitimacy of states and governments. The particular path
role of religion in political life as the elephant in the room.
should be a national choice in all cases, rather than one
Faisal Abbas, editor-in-chief of Al Arabiya, asked whether
prescribed from outside.
it was possible to develop western models of democracy
Nasser Judeh, Foreign Minister of Jordan, observed that
that featured debate, compromise and the rotation of power
the region was undergoing fundamental change – by evo-
in political systems that featured actors, such as the Party
lution in some states, and revolution in others. He noted
of God, which asserted that religious imperatives trumped
different interpretations of when sectarianism ignited as
national interests. Hague responded that the experience of
a political issue – the 2003 intervention in Iraq, the 1980s
Europe showed that, over time, the influence of religion on
Iran–Iraq war or the 1970s civil war in Lebanon. While that
politics would decline. Staffan de Mistura, Deputy Foreign
was contested, what was evident was that sectarian and
Minister of Italy, asked whether al-Qaeda and other radical
ethnic factors became more prominent in states undergo-
groups were looking to infiltrate the groups who came to
ing war or revolution, where security institutions have
power via the Arab Spring. Judeh responded that unsta-
collapsed and national identity has been weakened. This
ble situations provided fertile ground for militants, which
was the principal fear across the region about Syria: that the
underlined the importance of establishing stability in coun-
civil war, now of a political nature, could become sectarian
tries that have undergone revolutionary change. The Manama Dialogue 2012 | 87
(l–r): Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of Australia; and Dr Barham Saleh, former Prime Minister, Kurdistan Regional Government, Iraq
Fifth Plenary Session: Middle East Security in a
twentieth century’. He asserted that the Arab states today
Global Context
were actors and not simply ‘pawns’ caught in a ‘game of
In his opening statement, Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister
strategic power-play’. In spite of the undeniable chal-
of Australia, attempted to address the set of challenges
lenges pertaining to economic development, employment
facing the Middle East. He questioned the significance of the
and education, the region was no longer ‘contained’ in an
region within the wider global context, in terms of foreign-
‘unshakeable control of authoritarian governments’.
policy and security-policy priorities. He emphasised the
He then questioned the significance placed on reli-
importance of understanding ‘the interests and the values
gion and its role in Middle Eastern society in relation to
of the others, and the priority that they attach to them,’
legitimacy and governance. He contended that the import
in order to ‘minimise conflict and manage competition’.
of secularism to the Middle East has ‘failed’. The ‘internal
Rudd explained that given recent global developments
dynamic’ of the relationship between religion, power and
and challenges, the Middle East ‘looms as a significant, but
politics would undoubtedly have a significant impact on
by no means the major, set of priorities that confront the
inter-state relations. He then explored the lessons learnt
US administration right now’. Despite the shifts in power
from the Iraqi experience and developments since the
balances amidst the rise of China, Rudd highlighted the
demise of Saddam Hussein. In the face of sectarianism, he
‘pivot’ of American leadership in the region in relation to the
placed great importance on the constitution, which must
Arab-Israeli conflict, the Syrian crisis and Iranian threats.
‘reflect a genuine pact’ amongst citizens. He concluded
With regards to Palestinian statehood, Rudd asserted
with a reality-check of the significance of the American
that ‘it is paramount that US leadership comes to the fore
commitments to the region. He asserted that no matter
in bringing this peace process to a conclusion consistent
how powerful those commitments were, they would be
with the principles of the Arab peace plan of 2002’. On
superfluous in tackling regional failures in governance.
Syria, Rudd warned of a ‘strategic vacuum’ that could
Questions from the audience addressed a wide range of
emerge in post-Assad Syria in the absence of a clear man-
issues from the role of religion and the question of identity
date and operational plan. He reaffirmed the ‘continuing
to the external role played by global powers in the region.
significance of the region on the global map’, in spite of the
Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-economics and Strategy
‘multiple conflicting and overriding priorities’.
at IISS–Middle East, highlighted successful examples of
Dr Barham Saleh stressed the enduring relevance of
creating democratic processes in non-Arab countries with a
the region to global security, even with ‘the prospects of
significant number of Muslims, such as Indonesia and India.
lessening dependency on Middle Eastern oil’. By looking
Nabil Fahmy, Dean of the School of Public Affairs at the
at the historical regional context today, Salih concluded
American University in Cairo, proposed that the dysfunc-
that the recent developments in the region have ‘unleashed
tional dynamic between religion and politics in the Middle
forces of history that have been dormant for much of the
East was a symptom of the Arab world’s ‘search for identity’.
88 | The 8th IISS Regional Security Summit
On the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Geoffrey
diplomacy as well and asked whether other alternatives
Tantum, Director of Gulf Consultancy Services, criticised
should be explored. In response to these questions, Rudd
American diplomacy as well as Israel’s settlement build-
stressed the role of diplomacy in dealing with Israel and
ing. Dr Dana Allin, IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy
pointed out the recent Australian abstention in the UN General
and Transatlantic Affairs, questioned the effectiveness of
Assembly vote on Palestinian statehood as an example.
Plenary Session
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION I: Counter-terrorism The challenges of counter-terrorism (CT)
more broadly as a global, rather than purely
communication, and now giving due con-
were addressed from a multitude of angles
local or regional, phenomenon.
sideration to the creation of a National Counter Terrorism Centre.
in the first breakout session. The issue has
Participants noted that the Arab Spring
been at the forefront of policymakers’ minds
has, in certain countries, and particularly in
While domestic responses could now
for at least the past decade. It defined the for-
Yemen, allowed these groups to find fertile
benefit from widely accepted international
eign and security policies of the presidency
ground to pursue their destructive agendas.
best practices on the technical aspects of CT,
of George W. Bush and has transformed
The crisis in Yemen has created instability
international and particularly international-
global approaches to security.
to the point where al-Qaeda in the Arabian
legal mechanisms remained the subject of
With the death of Osama bin Laden in
Peninsula has been able to take control of
dispute. On one hand, international organ-
Abbottabad in May 2011, however, some
some parts of the country and declare sharia
isations (IOs) that were founded to con-
of the key principles and assumptions of
law. Over 8,000 Yemen army and security
front different challenges, such as NATO,
counter-terrorism were being reexamined.
forces have died confronting al-Qaeda in the
were now innovating to take on the terror-
Al-Qaeda as a unified global network had
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Yemen needed
ist threat and CT partnerships – bilateral, as
faded in importance even before the US Spe-
the international community’s assistance to
well as between states and IOs and among
cial Forces’ raid on bin Laden’s hide-out. But
counter the threat.
IOs – were flourishing. On the other hand,
a loosely linked, fragmented, and leaderless
There was consensus among partici-
legal mechanisms have not kept pace with
web of groups have emerged and/or been re-
pants that terrorism required a comprehen-
developments on the ground. Disparities
inforced throughout the world, particularly
sive approach, both within countries and
in legal approaches to dealing with terror-
in South and Central Asia, the Sahel, and the
globally. In the aftermath of the Mumbai at-
ists – particularly human-rights concerns
Gulf region. Participants grappled with the
tacks, for example, the Indian government
and divergences on the need for an interna-
implications of this shift, and what it meant
overhauled its counter-terrorism toolkit by
tional treaty framework for CT – have often
for international cooperation on counter-ter-
establishing more robust counter-terrorism
become a barrier to full intelligence-sharing
rorism and our understanding of terrorism
response troop units, boosting inter-agency
and cooperation.
(l–r): Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS; Maj.-Gen. Ali Al Ahmadi, President of the National Security Bureau, Yemen; Latha Reddy, Deputy National Security Adviser, India; and Alexander Vershbow, Deputy Secretary-General, NATO
The Manama Dialogue 2012 | 89
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION II: Strategic Reassurance and Deterrence The fundamental and often testing concerns
will,’ said one participant. It was a worry
recurrent theme, with the implications of
of strategic reassurance and deterrence in
Washington was aware of, and US partici-
preemptive and immediate retaliatory re-
the Middle East were explored in this wide-
pants in the discussion stressed the coun-
sponses by the US and its allies prompt-
ranging and challenging special session.
try’s continuing commitment to ensuring
ing comment. While a pre-emptive strike
regional security and stability.
would be ‘legally difficult’, politicians
Security issues remained of paramount importance as the region and partner na-
The provision of reassurance and deter-
would be faced with a ‘moral policy deci-
tions continued to absorb the ramifications
rence was made all the more challenging
sion as to which is the lesser evil,’ noted
of the Arab Spring, struggle with the im-
by the geopolitical flux that continued to af-
one participant.
mediate challenge of Syria, manage Iran’s
fect the region – a point alluded to by sev-
Beyond the pressing issue of Syrian
nuclear challenge, and face the impasse on
eral contributors, as was the more fungible
chemical weapons use, concerns remained
the Israeli-Palestinian front.
way in which countries were identified as
deep over Iran’s nuclear programme and
‘friends’ and ‘enemies’.
the profound worries of other states in the
The strategic environment was further complicated by discomfort within states in
Deterrence for the region presently was
region that this was intended to provide
the region that looked to the US as a guar-
all too practical a notion rather than theo-
Tehran with a nuclear weapons capability.
antor of security as Washington’s focus
retical, as illustrated by the threat posed
There was also a plea, however, to attempt to
moved to the Asia-Pacific region, and as its
by the cornered Syrian regime’s chemi-
understand strategic perceptions from Iran’s
energy reliance on the region waned then
cal weapons arsenal. The potential conse-
perspective. Washington’s problem with
so would its commitment. ‘There is a clear
quences of a failure of deterrence with Syr-
Iran, said one US contributor, was with the
concern… Part of deterrence is political
ia, and options for a response, were also a
regime, not with its people.
(l–r): Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-proliferation and Disarmament, IISS; Admiral Édouard Guillaud, Chief of the Defence Staff, France; General James Mattis, Commander, US Central Command; and Muammer Türker, Secretary-General, National Security Council, Turkey
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION III: Syria and regional security when the Assad regime fell.
Discussions in this group focused on when
nition, the violence in Syria may reach a point
and how the regime in Damascus might fall;
of no return and political chaos would ensue.
However, a number of opposition weak-
the strengths and weaknesses of the military
The appointment of al-Khatib as its leader
nesses were noted. Firstly, their senior
and political opposition fighting to remove
was seen as a positive step forward as he was
military leadership had little training. Their
it; divisions within the international com-
a moderate centrist politician with strong
campaign to take Aleppo lacked a political-
munity about Syria; and finally, what a post-
credentials. Another source of the National
military strategy, which led to mistakes and
regime Syria may look like.
Council’s legitimacy was the fact that some
civilian dissatisfaction.
The majority of the debate focused on the
of its leaders had only been out of Syria for
Discussion then turned to the destabilis-
strengths and weaknesses of the new opposi-
a matter of months. It was also seen as repre-
ing effect the Syrian conflict was having on
tion alliance, the National Coalition for Syr-
senting Syria’s religious diversity.
Lebanon where 140,000 Syrians had sought
ian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, led
It was expected that the upcoming
refuge. So far, Lebanon had proved remark-
by Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib. It was recognised
Friends of Syria meeting in Marrakech
ably resilient in its handling of the Syrian cri-
that divisions within the National Council
would see the formation of a government in
sis, with the majority of political groupings
and between it and groups fighting within
exile. The next step would be for it to be rec-
adopting a policy of ‘disassociation’ from the
Syria still existed. However, those who cel-
ognised as the sole legitimate representative
conflict. However, the arrival in Lebanon of
ebrated the formation of the National Co-
of the Syrian people, especially by the US. It
much larger numbers of refugees, driven out
alition argued it was the only way forward
could then rapidly gain capacity to take over
by an increase in fighting around Damascus,
at this late stage in the conflict. If it was not
the running of governance in liberated areas
could result in much greater tensions. To
backed with resources and diplomatic recog-
and avoid the complete collapse of the state
date, the assassination on 19 October of Gen-
90 | The 8th IISS Regional Security Summit
eral Wissam al-Hassan, the head of police
in the conflict. Russia called for a peaceful
in power, with several voices arguing that
intelligence, had given rise to a new peak in
resolution of the crisis – a political transition
2013 would see its removal. It became evi-
political tension.
through dialogue with Syrians themselves
dent that substantial work had already been
It was clear from the meeting that the
working towards a negotiated settlement.
undertaken to create an international trust
UN Security Council remained deeply di-
Only this political solution, it was argued,
fund to pay for post-conflict reconstruction.
vided on the issue of Syria. There was some
could avoid more deaths on the ground.
Once regime change had taken place, it was
suggestion that China’s policy had recently
Finally, the discussion turned to Syria’s
thought that there would be a major role for
begun to change but Russia remained reso-
post-Assad shape. There was disagreement
the United Nations, which should start de-
lute in its opposition to external interference
about how long the current regime had left
tailed planning for this now.
(l–r): Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS; Maj.-Gen. Faris Al Mazrouei, Assistant Foreign Minister for Security and Military Affairs, UAE; Sir Derek Plumbly, Under Secretary-General and Special Coordinator for Lebanon, United Nations; Eric Chevallier, Ambassador of France to Syria; and Sergei Vershinin, Special Representative on the Middle East Settlement, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russia
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION IV: Security in the Strait of Hormuz nian economies would be equally severe.
The importance of the Strait of Hormuz was
Nonetheless, the strait was one of six
widely appreciated in the fourth breakout
strategic chokepoints and there were vari-
Beyond the strait, counter-piracy opera-
session. More than 35% of all seaborne oil
ous ways in which it could be affected by
tions were another area of naval cooperation.
and 20% of all oil traded globally transits
a belligerent country: through greater in-
In late 2011, there were more than 700 hos-
through the strait. It was therefore of strategic
spections of vessels; harassment of civilian
tages and 70 ships held off the coast of Soma-
importance for countries beyond the region,
vessels; covert attacks, replicating the M
lia; by late 2012, these figures had dropped
as demonstrated by the 33 nations that par-
Star terrorist attack of 2010; or mine-laying.
to 137 hostages and five vessels. This was
ticipated in the multinational mine counter-
Mine-laying may not be restricted to the
owing to a variety of reasons: multilateral
measures exercises held in September and
strait; during the Tanker War of the 1980s,
naval operations, Best Management Prac-
the 27 different nations that currently operate
more than 1,000 mines were laid in the Gulf,
tices employed aboard ships, and indepen-
under the Combined Maritime Forces.
but none were in the strait itself.
dent naval escorts (India, for example, has
It was not just oil that made the Gulf stra-
Yet, it was unclear that Iran would under-
escorted more than 2,200 vessels, of which
tegically important: the US presence began
take such actions, as it relied as heavily on the
only 280 were Indian-flagged). Although
in earnest in 1948, when the US was an oil
strait for economic stability as any other coun-
there was disagreement over the morality
exporter and largely energy self-sufficient.
try. Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hor-
of using private-security companies, it was
Therefore, a return to self-sufficiency in com-
muz, as occurred in early 2012, were therefore
also true that they have been very effective,
ing decades alone may not lead to a US with-
a similar strategy to nuclear deterrence: the
with no vessel embarking private-security
drawal from the region.
damage wrought to both the global and Ira-
companies having been pirated.
(l–r): Michael Elleman, Senior Fellow for Gulf Security Cooperation, IISS; Vice Admiral John Miller, Commander, US Naval Forces, Central Command; Vice Admiral Marin Gillier, Joint Commander, French Forces in the Indian Ocean and the UAE; and Vice Admiral Pradeep Chatterjee, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff, Indian Navy
The Manama Dialogue 2012 | 91
92 | The 8th IISS Regional Security Summit
See videos and transcripts online
2013
9TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT, 6–8 DECEMBER
The Manama Dialogue 2013
William Hague, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK
A fast-changing regional environment in the Middle East
newly elected President Hassan Rouhani desired better
was the focus of the 9th Manama Dialogue, successfully
regional and international relations, best reflected in the
held in Bahrain on 6–8 December 2013. The Regional
interim nuclear deal reached in November 2013, was bal-
Security Summit once again brought together senior
anced by structural and political suspicions. Even as the
government, diplomatic and military officials as well as
prospect of a war over Iran’s nuclear programme receded,
parliamentarians, senior analysts and journalists from the
there was scepticism that Iran’s regional behaviour
Middle East, North America, Europe and Asia to discuss
(especially in Syria) and commitment to Islamist ideol-
the regional and domestic threats and opportunities
ogy would change. There was also pervasive doubt over
affecting Middle Eastern stability.
whether Rouhani actually had the influence to deliver on
This year’s regional landscape proved particularly chal-
his promises. The Gulf states wondered how to respond
lenging, defined primarily by the escalating civil war in
to Iranian outreach and to American interest in a rap-
Syria, the troubled transition in Egypt, the interim nuclear
prochement with Iran. Several Gulf ministers present
deal between Iran and the great powers, uncertain attempts
at the Manama Dialogue, who had recently met senior
at integrating Gulf foreign and defence policies and ques-
Iranian officials, pledged to take a constructive approach
tions about the intentions and role of the United States in
to solving bilateral disputes.
regional security. Together with the bumpy transitions in
The magnitude and complexity of the Syrian crisis also
North Africa and Yemen, these crises suggested a possible
dominated the discussion. The military advances of the
regional re-ordering whose nature and shape remained,
Assad regime, the fragmentation of the opposition, the
however, very much unclear.
rise of jihadi groups and the absence of any appetite for
In particular, the possibility and contours of a detente
foreign intervention considerably changed the equation
with Iran received much scrutiny. The recognition that
from where it stood in late 2012. The regional competition
94 | The 9th IISS Regional Security Summit
Opening Televised Panel (l–r): Hoshyar Zebari, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Iraq; Sheikh Dr Muhammad Al Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah, former Deputy Prime Minister; former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kuwait; Senator Tim Kaine, Chairman, Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs, US Senate; Prince Turki Al Faisal Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Chairman of the Board, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Saudi Arabia; Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia
over Syria remained intense, with the direct involvement
fiscal priorities did not undermine its posture in the Gulf.
of Iranian forces and Shia militias from Lebanon and Iraq
The US pledged to support the defence capabilities of its
balanced by Gulf financial and material support for the
Arab allies, and in particular offer greater cooperation on
opposition. Although the Geneva II conference was sched-
air and missile defence.
uled for early 2014, the feeling was that the prospects for a
Divisions between the Gulf states on crucial matters
quick political settlement remained dim. In the meantime,
complicated regional politics. Qatar, still supportive of the
the humanitarian catastrophe and the related burden on
ousted Muslim Brotherhood, remained at odds over Egypt
Syria’s neighbours demanded urgent action, yet the inter-
with most other Gulf states, who extended support for the
national response continued to pale.
military and the civilian government. While all Gulf states
The role of the US generated interrogations and scepti-
agreed on the objective of removing Bashar al-Assad from
cism which senior US officials sought to address. Tensions
power, each country adopted a different strategy and culti-
between the US and several Gulf states over Egypt,
vated different interlocutors in the Syrian opposition.
Syria and Iran were evident. The US backtracking on its
To cope with regional threats, Saudi Arabia promoted
announcement that it would punish Assad militarily for his
greater Gulf unity, especially in the security and foreign-
use of chemical weapons came under intense criticism, but
policy realms, supported in this regard by Bahrain. Other
was countered by US insistence that the removal of chemi-
states, notably Oman and Qatar, viewed such a move with
cal weapons from the Syrian battlefield was a net security
deep scepticism, primarily out of concern for how it would
gain. The US was also criticised for how it conducted its
affect sovereignty.
diplomacy with Iran and for not involving its Gulf allies, to which US officials responded that future diplomacy look-
Opening Televised Panel
ing at regional arrangements would associate them more
The Manama Dialogue was preceded by an opening
closely. Underlying all this was a concern that the US was
televised panel hosted by Sky News Arabia entitled ‘The
decreasing its regional involvement to the benefit of Iran.
Future of the Middle East: Conflict and Change’. Moderated
Whether Washington desired such an outcome was hotly
by Fadila Souissi, the panel included Hoshyar Zebari,
debated among Arab participants.
Iraq’s Foreign Minister, Prince Turki Al Faisal, Chairman
To counter such suspicions, senior US officials were
of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic
keen to reiterate Washington’s commitment to Gulf secu-
Studies, Senator Tim Kaine, Chairman of the US Senate
rity: they stressed the strength of the various military
Subcommittee on Near Eastern, Central and South Asian
relationships and the presence of 35,000 US troops in the
Affairs and Sheikh Dr Muhammad Al Sabah Al Salem Al
region, and insisted that the United States’ other global and
Sabah, Kuwait’s former Deputy Prime Minister and former The Manama Dialogue 2013 | 95
Opening Dinner
Minister of Foreign Affairs. The discussion focused on the
Iraq could play a mediating role between Iran and the
implications of the interim nuclear agreement between the
GCC, Zebari emphasised that the Gulf states already have
P5+1 and Iran, and the future of Syria.
strong lines of communication between them and Iran, and
Al Faisal welcomed the recently signed interim deal, but emphasised that any resolution to rid the region of
that Iraq is always open to playing a bridging role between the GCC states and Tehran.
the nuclear threat should be both permanent and include other states in the area in possession of these weapons. For
Opening Dinner and Keynote Address
his part, Kaine described the agreement as an important
Held under the patronage and in the presence of the Crown
confidence-building step between all the involved actors
Prince and First Deputy Prime Minister of Bahrain, Prince
ahead of a final settlement. While remaining cautious,
Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the opening dinner featured
Kaine explained that the deal was a net security gain for
a keynote address by UK Foreign Secretary William Hague.
the region as it provides early warning should Iran move
Hague called for making 2014 a year of bringing
towards developing nuclear weapons.
a two-state solution to the Middle East peace process
Discussing the Syrian conflict, Zebari described how it
within reach, turning the corner on the Syria conflict,
undermined Iraq’s security and stability. He stressed Iraq’s
and negotiating a comprehensive settlement with Iran
support for a peaceful resolution of the war and argued that
on its nuclear programme. On the peace process, Hague
no military options are currently available. With regards
said the EU and Arab nations must be ready to play their
to the upcoming Geneva II conference, Al Faisal stated
part in providing incentives needed to reach a settlement.
that neither the Syrian regime nor, to an extent, Russia
If negotiations falter as Israeli settlements continue to
should be involved in this process. Al Sabah reminded the
expand and Palestinian divisions remain, then the possi-
audience that the US has intervened in Bosnia and more
bility of a two-state solution could be gone forever. On
recently Libya for humanitarian reasons and therefore,
Syria, the agreements to eradicate chemical weapons and
he questioned the United States’ rationale for staying out
to set a date for the Geneva II conference have opened
of Syria, especially as the country is becoming a breeding
up a sliver of light to the extraordinarily difficult task of
ground for radical jihadi groups.
ending the conflict. Otherwise a humanitarian crisis of
Following the panel discussion, Baria Alamuddin,
potentially unmanageable proportions beckons, which
Foreign Editor at Al-Hayat newspaper, asked Al Faisal
could see a fifth of the country gain refugee status. Noting
whether the Gulf states lack media and strategic commu-
that the UK has donated £500 million in humanitarian aid,
nication instruments to respond to Iranian propaganda. Al
he called on other countries to play their full part in the
Faisal saw no need to create additional Arab media outlets,
donor conference in Kuwait in January.
saying existing ones provided adequate responses to Iran’s
On the Iranian nuclear issue, Hague said the UK recog-
inflammatory channels. Asked by Alamuddin whether
nised and welcomed the Iranian government’s change in
96 | The 9th IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): William Hague, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK; and Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS
tone and substance. Noting the sincerity of Iranian Foreign
Alamuddin, Foreign Editor of Al-Hayat newspaper, asked
Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in reaching a diplomatic
how Hague proposed to effect the ‘change of soul and
agreement, he said the power of diplomacy must now be
mind’ that would be required to bring Iran around on the
tested to the full. It is vital that the interim nuclear deal’s
other issues in the area. Hague replied that changing Iran’s
monitoring and implementation be strictly upheld on all
soul was not an objective at the outset, but that outsiders
sides and that remaining sanctions are enforced so that
can argue with the Iranian mind. Just as Iranian negotiators
Iran has every incentive to reach a comprehensive agree-
themselves contend that it would not be in Iran’s interest to
ment. Hague assured delegates that the interim agreement
develop nuclear weapons, so should it be possible to argue
with Iran does not imply any diminution in the UK’s com-
that it is in Iran’s interests to pursue different policies on
mitment to alliances in the region, to the security of sea
other subjects of concern.
lanes or to the struggle against terrorism. ‘Engagement on
Picking up on the Syria issue, Jamal Khashoggi, General
the nuclear question should not mean a free pass for Iran
Manager and Editor-in-Chief of Al Arab News Channel,
on other issues in the region,’ he said.
asked if the UK parliamentary vote against intervention
Iran was the focus of most of the questions put to Hague.
set a precedent that would prohibit British engagement
In response to IISS Director-General and Chief Executive
if an emergency erupted elsewhere in the Middle East.
Dr John Chipman, Hague said, in the short term, much
Hague said it would be a mistake to derive wider conclu-
could go wrong with the implementation of the huge num-
sions about British foreign policy from one debate and one
ber of detailed steps that need to be taken. For the medium
argument. The UK would continue to be an active player
term, a comprehensive and final agreement would have
in the world and ready to stand by allies. The need to con-
to cover all aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme, includ-
sult Parliament does not constrain Britain’s ability to act in
ing enrichment activities defined for practical and peaceful
an emergency or in defence of allies or to fulfil treaty obli-
purposes. He emphasised that the Geneva agreement is ‘a
gations as soon as possible. In the 2011 intervention with
transaction on the nuclear deal, not a relationship at this
France to save Benghazi, the parliamentary vote was taken
stage’. Whether, in the long term, it can turn into a relation-
afterwards, for example.
ship, depends on changes in policy by Iran on a range of issues that deeply trouble the UK and other countries.
Finally, in response to Yousef Mashal, Chairman of the Mashal Group, who asked if military action might follow
Answering a question by Odeh Aburdene, Senior
next summer if the three goals spelt out for 2014 are not
Adviser at Capital Trust Group, as to whether Saudi
achieved, Hague quipped that he was not about to declare
Arabia and the GCC could be included in negotiations,
war just before dinner. While acknowledging the difficul-
Hague said efforts had been made to ensure that Gulf part-
ties, we must have a positive attitude, he said, noting that
ners were kept well informed and consulted, but that it is
‘sometimes it is amazing what diplomacy and pressure
important to find new mechanisms of consultation. Baria
together can do.’ The Manama Dialogue 2013 | 97
Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, US
First Plenary Session: Global Security Priorities for
surveillance and reconnaissance assets to provide a continu-
the US
ous picture of activities in and around the Gulf’ and ‘our
Responding to the main concern of the audience, US Defense
most advanced fighter aircraft, including F-22s’. He claimed
Secretary Chuck Hagel opened with an insistent statement
that, ‘no target is beyond our reach.’
of reassurance to the United States’ Gulf Arab partners that
Hagel acknowledged that the US Department of
any rapprochement with Iran would not come at the expense
Defense will face a serious budget problem, but Gulf
of their security. He was ‘under no illusion’ about Iran, and
commitments would have priority, the US would still
acknowledged the ‘daily threats facing this region’ and
‘represent nearly 40%’ of global defence spending, and its
the ‘anxieties’ linked to diplomacy with Iran. In describing
military would ‘remain the most powerful in the world’.
the interim deal reached with Iran, Hagel maintained that
The United States, he intoned, is ‘not retreating from any
‘we have bought time for meaningful negotiation, not for
part of the world’.
deception.’ Moreover, even if further nuclear negotiations
He also emphasised efforts to build up the capabilities of
produce success, ‘I know that Iran’s nuclear programme is
Arab states in the Gulf and elsewhere. Since 2007, he noted,
only one dimension of the threats Iran poses in the region.
the Department of Defense has approved over US$75 billion
I’m briefed virtually every day about these threats.’
in arms sales to GCC states, ‘worth nearly as much as those
He added, however, that ‘no strategy is risk-free’ and
made totally in the previous 15 years’. This included a recent
that diplomacy requires ‘courage’ and ‘vision’. Diplomatic
US$11bn package that included F-15s, F-16s and advanced
success would depend on ‘America’s military power’ as
munitions constituting ‘the most advanced capabilities that
well as the credibility of ‘assurances to our allies and part-
we have ever provided to this region’.
ners in the Middle East that we will use it’. He expressed an
To strengthen GCC cooperation, the Defense Secretary
‘absolute’ commitment to core American interests, includ-
announced three new initiatives. Firstly, he proposed add-
ing ‘defending against external aggression; ensuring the
ing missile defence cooperation to the regular air and air
free flow of energy and commerce; dismantling terrorist
defence chiefs’ conference between the US and GCC coun-
networks that threaten America or its allies; and stopping
tries. Secondly, he suggested coordinating US defence sales
the spread of weapons of mass destruction’.
through the organisation of the GCC. Thirdly, he invited
In arguing for US ability to defend those interests, Hagel
GCC states to ‘participate in an annual US–GCC Defence
catalogued the United States’ formidable assets in the Gulf.
Ministerial’ meeting for the purposes of ‘coordinating our
These included ‘a ground, air and naval presence of more
defence policies and enhancing our military cooperation’.
than 35,000 military personnel’, some ‘10,000 forward-
The first such meeting, he suggested, should take place
deployed soldiers in the region, along with heavy armour,
within the next six months.
artillery, and attack helicopters’, an ‘array of missile defence
To conclude, Hagel reminded his audience that he was
capabilities’, the United States’ ‘most advanced intelligence,
speaking on the anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl
98 | The 9th IISS Regional Security Summit
Harbour, which brought the US not only into the Second
increase in threats provided an impetus towards reform of
World War, but also ‘ushered in a new era of American
the GCC based on a new consensus and common vision, so
leadership and responsibility in world affairs’. He quoted
that mutual security could be better guaranteed. Instead of
Franklin D. Roosevelt who insisted, after three years of
blaming external powers, Gulf countries needed to face the
global war, that it would be ‘our own tragic loss if we
reality that the region itself was a source of threats. While
were to shirk ... responsibility’. ‘Today,’ Hagel promised,
Saudi Arabia had always been open to resolving disputes
‘as America emerges from a long period of war, it will not
with Iran, and was hopeful that this could be done, any
shirk its responsibilities.’
agreement must be based on mutual respect and on non-
In the ensuing Q&A, François Heisbourg, Chairman of
interference in each other’s internal affairs.
the IISS Council, wondered about the long-term US pres-
Dr Abdullatif Bin Rashid Al Zayani, Secretary-General
ence in the Gulf, given the rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific,
of the GCC, reminded the audience of the successes that
as well as the possibility that negotiations with Iran might
the GCC had achieved, especially in conflict resolution. For
resolve some of the most acute security challenges. In
example, it helped Yemen to avoid a civil war and create
response, Hagel reiterated that the US would not retreat,
a peaceful transfer of power. It adopted a principled posi-
but also that it would not try to ‘dictate to the world’ – and
tion towards the Assad regime as the conflict developed
that capacity building of partners was a way to square
in Syria, and donor conferences for humanitarian aid had
that circle. Raghida Dergham, Founder and Executive
been organised in Kuwait. Gulf countries had helped each
Chairman, Beirut Institute; columnist for Al-Hayat, asked
other, for example in liberating Kuwait after the Iraqi inva-
what kind of security arrangement might emerge between
sion, in the United Arab Emirates’ island dispute with Iran,
the United States and Iran, and alleged that the US turned
and in the activation of common defence arrangements to
‘a blind eye to Iran’s military role in Syria’. Seyed Hossein
assist Bahrain in 2011. Such cooperation had allowed GCC
Mousavian, a former Iranian official and now Visiting
members to ‘cross to the shore of safety and prosperity’.
Research Scholar at Princeton University, asked how the
Nabil Fahmy, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs,
Secretary justified unrelenting pressure against Iran while
reflected on the nature of the threats and conflicts that
ignoring Israel’s nuclear arsenal. Hagel responded, with-
the region was dealing with. In the past, these had been
out specifically mentioning Israel, that it is Iran that has
largely ‘strategic’ and involved outside powers – for exam-
‘been in violation of many United Nations resolutions’.
ple, the Cold War. More recently, conflicts had increasingly become ‘sub-regional’ and some took a sectarian flavour
Second Plenary Session: Evolving Regional Security
in which non-state actors participated. While this was
Architecture, Conflicts and Outside Powers
occurring, regional countries had been reconsidering the
The second plenary session saw a lively discussion on the
role of outside powers who had a presence in the region.
future role and nature of the Gulf Cooperation Council
They did not want to admit that these powers were part of
(GCC) as the region faced up to dealing with multiple
their security system, but they also did not want them to
threats. An activist plan for reform was set out by Dr
leave. Now, they needed to confront new realities: change
Nizar Bin Obaid Madani, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State
would happen and outside powers’ desire to play a role in
for Foreign Affairs. He called for a union between GCC
the region would diminish. Regional countries would need
members, urging them to ‘loosen their grip on traditional
to be more self-reliant and solutions to problems would
concepts of sovereignty’. There was an urgent need to
need to be more regional. Outside powers would not pro-
safeguard the gains that Gulf countries had made in spite
vide security, Fahmy said – a statement in stark contrast
of the risks and threats that they faced. As dangers grew,
with the assurances provided by Hagel in the previous
the GCC should not stand and watch, Madani said; rather
session. However, Fahmy said this change would happen
it should itself be an engine in Gulf affairs, instead of being
gradually and that there needed to be a strategic dialogue
weak and divided. Gulf security would be better guaranteed
involving outsiders and Arabs so that no security vacuum
if they took greater responsibility for it through closer
would develop.
integration. GCC countries, he argued, had a joint destiny
From the audience came a vigorous riposte to the Saudi
and faced similar challenges, but also had differences, both
vision of closer GCC unity. Yousef Bin Alawi Al-Ibrahim,
in political directions and strategic vision. The marked
the minister responsible for Oman’s foreign affairs, rejected The Manama Dialogue 2013 | 99
(l–r): Dr Abdullatif Bin Rashid Al Zayani, Secretary-General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf; Dr Nizar Bin Obaid Madani, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia; and Nabil Fahmy, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt
the Saudi proposal of a GCC union. If the other five mem-
ahead of winter. He argued that the diplomatic push that
bers agreed to unite, he said, Oman would not be part of
has yielded recent agreements on Syrian chemical weapons
this arrangement. The GCC had failed to develop a unified
and Iran’s nuclear programme should now be directed to
economic system and its members still needed to provide
other aspects of the Syrian conflict, and stated that Qatar was
a secure economic future for its populations, of whom 60%
eager to participate in this endeavour. The minister argued
were young people. It should not take on a military iden-
that Qatar and other Gulf states stood firm in the defence of
tity and it should keep away from regional conflicts.
Syria’s people, including through military aid to opposition
Questions focused on Iran’s negotiations with for-
groups because of the failure of the world community to
eign powers on its nuclear programme, with a specific
protect Syrians. If international action is not possible, then
mention of the absence of a role for GCC countries in the
Arab League or GCC action should be contemplated.
talks. Delegates from both sides of the Gulf sought to
Senator Tim Kaine, Chairman of the US Senate Foreign
look beyond any eventual nuclear agreement and asked
Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and
whether Iran could be involved in the region’s future secu-
Central Asian Affairs, shed light on the reasoning behind
rity architecture.Al Zayani commented that trust needed to
the deep reservations in the US Congress about the use of
be built, both among GCC members and with Iran. Given
force to punish Assad for his use of chemical weapons. He
Tehran’s new desire for engagement, the first opportunity
detailed four questions that his congressional colleagues
to build such trust was to deal with the UAE island dispute.
wrestled with; these might inform future decisions over the
Madani said Saudi Arabia was seeking a GCC role in nego-
use of force too. Firstly, would US military action make a
tiations with Iran, and it was premature to judge where the
positive difference? There were doubts as to whether the
current six-month accord between Iran and the P5+1 would
military tool was the most appropriate one in this instance.
lead. He reiterated his call to cement GCC unity. Fahmy
Secondly, would US military action be appreciated and
noted that concern about interference in domestic affairs
valued within the region? The failure to reach a Status of
was common in the Middle East, and asked Iran to make a
Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government, and the dif-
commitment to stop doing so.
ficulty on agreeing terms with the Afghan president, has given the US cause to consider the value placed on its mili-
Third Plenary: Syria and the Regional Impact
tary footprint in the broader region. Thirdly, would the
Opening the third session, Qatar’s Foreign Minister,
US have partners in military action? In the case of Syria, it
Khalid Bin Mohammed Al Attiyah, deplored the inability
seemed to have very few. Finally, what might the ultimate
of the international community to address the deepening
consequence of military action be? Within Congress, there
humanitarian crisis in Syria and called on it to reach an
are considerable reservations over the plausible alterna-
agreement that would ease the plight of Syria’s people
tives to Assad, and the role of extremists in a post-Assad
100 | The 9th IISS Regional Security Summit
(l–r): Khalid Bin Mohammed Al Attiyah, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Qatar; Senator Tim Kaine, Chairman, Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs, US Senate; and Hoshyar Zebari, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Iraq
government that US military action could help bring to
Responding to a question by Heisbourg, about arms
power. If these criteria were applied to future crises, they
supplies to insurgent groups, Al Attiyah argued that there
would not necessarily rule out the use of force by the US.
were no terrorist groups operating in Syria when Qatar
However, they underlined that in the current political cir-
began to dispense military aid. He suggested that the scale
cumstances it might be more difficult to obtain a political
of the problem had been exaggerated by Syrian govern-
consensus for military action.
ment propaganda.
Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq’s Foreign Minister, noted the
Prompted by a question from Dr Toby Dodge,
failure of regional and international diplomacy to settle
Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East at the IISS,
the conflict and outlined the negative impact of this on
Zebari conceded that the rise in violence in Iraq in recent
Iraq. Echoing the comments of his Qatari counterpart, he
years was also a result of shortcomings in Iraq’s inter-
bemoaned the fact that it took the chemical-weapons issue
nal security arrangements and policies. Questions and
to get the UN Security Council operating in a unified direc-
comments were also made regarding the democratic aspi-
tion. He was not convinced that the chemical-weapons
rations of the Syrian opposition, the risks of the Syrian
agreement would lead to a political solution to the Syrian
conflict being much more destabilising regionally than
conflict. The minister focused on the rising security threats
Iraq’s civil war, and in particular the threat of sectarianism
to Iraq that emanated from Syria. He said that terrorist
spreading across the region – which could be viewed as
groups had mushroomed, so that today there were thou-
having a destructive potential comparable to Syria’s chemi-
sands of terrorists, including 25,000 in the al-Nusra Front.
cal weapons.
Some Syrian and Iraqi extremist groups have united. He evoked the disturbing possibility that Iraq could become
Fourth Plenary Session: Middle East Stability:
another ungoverned space, as Afghanistan had been.
Intervention, Mediation and Security Cooperation
Zebari recalled that he had warned the Syrian government
The fourth plenary session involved the participation of
in 2005, which he regarded as being complicit in facili-
extra-regional foreign ministers. Børge Brende, Minister of
tating the entry of terrorists into Iraq, that such a course
Foreign Affairs of Norway, outlined his view of regional
invited blowback on Syria. Touching on relations between
stability and his country’s role in it. He insisted that
Baghdad and Damascus, he denied that the Iraqi gov-
regional stability was primarily a responsibility for regional
ernment was helping to arm the Syrian government as a
countries, but that despite this, the effects of insecurity in
matter of policy; indeed, Iraq would respect the will of the
the Middle East are not limited to the region, and that any
Syrian people if they ousted Assad from power. The min-
approach to improve stability must be comprehensive.
ister attributed the failure to interdict supplies as partly a consequence of Iraq’s weak airpower.
This latter point was a defining aspect of Norway’s view of the underlying causes of conflict, which lie in The Manama Dialogue 2013 | 101
(l–r): Børge Brende, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Norway; Dr Abu Bakr al-Qirbi, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen; and John Baird, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Canada
political-economic structures, particularly the lack of inclu-
John Baird, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada, struck
sivity in economic growth. In this realm, the region faces
a cautious note on regional stability. While the recent nuclear
significant challenges: 40 million jobs need to be created
agreement with Iran was a positive outcome, Canada
by 2020, while more than 50% of the region’s popula-
remained ‘deeply sceptical’ of Tehran’s long-term ambition
tion is under the age of 20. There is therefore a significant
to de-nuclearise. Baird implored Iran to undertake more
challenge for countries in the region to foster sufficient eco-
comprehensive steps, such as adopting Additional Protocol
nomic growth, and yet make it inclusive enough to ensure
safeguards, in order to build confidence in its intentions.
stability. To aid stability, Norway has demonstrated its
Similarly, while Canada supported the decision to destroy
willingness to commit military assets, through the deploy-
chemical weapons in Syria, Baird noted that Assad should
ment of a frigate to counter-piracy operations in the Indian
be held accountable for the attacks that have occurred thus
Ocean. However, non-military interventions include sup-
far. While a political settlement is the top priority, Assad’s
port for an alternative livelihood programme in Somalia
legitimacy should not be enhanced by the chemical-weap-
and mediation in negotiations in the Israel–Palestine
ons deal. In terms of Canadian support for the region, Baird
conflict.
noted Ottawa’s support for the GCC as an organisation to
While Brende attempted to portray Norway as a secu-
enhance regional stability and for its recent decision to label
rity exporter, Abu Bakr al-Qirbi, Minister of Foreign Affairs
Hizbullah a terrorist organisation. Canada has contributed
of Yemen, was candid in his view of his country as a secu-
CAD100m to assist Syrian refugees in Jordan, comparing the
rity importer, noting that the country currently lacked the
influx in terms of ratio of population to the entirety of the
capabilities to ensure stability overall. Yemen, he noted, is a
Canadian population crossing the border to the US.
potential cornerstone of regional stability, given its position
Questions from the floor focused on Iran and Syria.
astride a major sea line of communication, its control over
Sultan Mohammed Al-Nuaimi, Researcher at the UAE
the chokepoint of the Bab el-Mandeb and its occupation of
Ministry of Defence, noted the differences in perception of
a large area of the southern Arabian Peninsula. However,
the Iranian nuclear agreement among GCC states, the US
it is also key to regional insecurity, given the presence of
and Iran, suggesting this was a fundamental weakness.
al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Syrian refugees in
In response to a question about whether Norway could
Yemen. The primary concern for Yemen, though, is lack of
destroy the Syrian chemical weapons, Brende answered
resources. Some 18m Yemenis are in need of humanitar-
that Norway was unable to do so for capacity and climatic
ian assistance. Al-Qirbi outlined Yemen’s assistance needs,
reasons by the expected deadline of 1 January, but it had
from direct intelligence, security and military support,
pledged US$15m in support of UNSCR 2118.
through equipment and training, to non-military forms of humanitarian assistance. 102 | The 9th IISS Regional Security Summit
Asked whether Norway and Canada would be happy to take in Syrian refugees, Baird pointed out that Canada already
(l–r): Salman Khurshid, Minister for External Affairs, India; Prince Turki Al Faisal Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Chairman of the Board, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Saudi Arabia; Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Associate Research Scholar, Princeton University; former Head, Foreign Relations Committee, Supreme National Security Council, Iran; and Dr Gary Samore, Executive Director for Research, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
accepts the largest number of Syrian refugees, but this was
the Gulf region as ‘India’s extended neighbourhood’, and
not a long-term solution, while Brende stated that Norway
as ‘an important artery for the flow of goods and ideas
had increased the number of Syrian refugees it accepts and
and movement of people’. In addition to trade, energy
was the sixth-largest humanitarian donor to Syria, pointing
and investment, Khurshid emphasised the potential for
out, however, major problems in aid distribution.
increasing cooperation in counter-terrorism, fighting
Seyyed Kazem Sajjadpour, Director of Policy Planning
money laundering and anti-piracy measures.
at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, highlighted
Discussing the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Khurshid
Baird’s failure to mention Israel’s nuclear-weapons arse-
reaffirmed that his country’s position favours ‘democratic
nal even while criticising Iran’s nuclear programme. Baird
pluralism and religious moderation’, but warned against
answered that he did not desire a regional arms race and
radical groups hijacking genuine political demands. He
wanted allies to feel secure.
paid special attention to the unfolding of events in Syria,
Aykan Erdemir, Member of Parliament, Turkey, asked
expressing his country’s condemnation of violence by all
Brende what concrete policies could be undertaken to
sides. He pointed to the brokered deal to rid Syria of its
ensure the inclusive approach to politics outlined by the
chemical weapons as confirmation that ‘global, non-dis-
Norwegian minister. Brende answered that the first step
criminatory regimes on non-proliferation matter’.
was actually any economic growth, which has been lacking
Prince Turki Al Faisal Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Chairman
in many countries for several years. Recent trade agree-
of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies,
ments helped, but more was needed to ensure wealth
suggested transforming the Middle East into a zone free
trickles down to individuals.
of weapons of mass destruction. However, the success of
Alamuddin and Amy Kellogg from Fox News asked
this zone hinges upon the five permanent members of the
how Yemen intended to counter terrorism. Al-Qirbi noted
United Nations Security Council providing two necessary
that the GCC had adopted the Gulf Initiative for Yemen,
guarantees. Firstly, these five states must guarantee the
which had now gathered wide support, despite initial divi-
protection of the regional states from any threats that they
sions. In terms of counter-terrorism, the minister suggested
may face, including those of a nuclear nature. Secondly, the
that any approach should be comprehensive.
permanent members of the UN Security Council should guarantee that they will seek to punish economically, polit-
Fifth Plenary Session: International Interests in
ically, as well as militarily, any state in this zone that may
Middle East Security and Non-Proliferation
attempt to develop nuclear weapons.
In his opening speech, Salman Khurshid, Minister of
Al Faisal described the interim nuclear agreement
External Affairs of India, outlined the strong relationship
between the P5+1 and Iran as ‘an important achievement’.
between his country and the GCC states. He referred to
However, he emphasised the need to ensure that Iran will The Manama Dialogue 2013 | 103
not break the agreement and that it will eventually lead to
the discussion on the interim agreement was ‘vastly exag-
guaranteeing the ‘permanence of non-proliferation’. At the
gerated’, highlighting that it is simply a ‘six month truce’.
same time, Al Faisal questioned the sincerity of Iran’s new
Washington is not going to accept anything less than oblit-
diplomatic approach to the region. He asserted that Iranian
erating Iran’s physical ability to produce weapons-grade
statements hold little value if not implemented. Arab states
material quickly, while President Rouhani had already
are prepared to cooperate with their neighbour, according
stated that his country will not dismantle any of its existing
to Al Faisal, but it is time for Iran to stop interfering in their
nuclear facilities.
domestic affairs.
Even though President Obama used some of his ‘bar-
At the beginning of his remarks, Seyed Hossein
gaining chips’ to secure this interim agreement, this does
Mousavian, Associate Research Scholar at Princeton
not necessarily mean that Tehran will accept the final terms
University, declared that the US cannot remain engaged in
of a nuclear agreement. However, in Samore’s opinion,
the region at the same level indefinitely. He pointed to four
neither side would like to see the collapse of negotiations.
key guidelines to guarantee regional security and stability.
Therefore the current interim agreement may only lead to
Firstly, no single country can dominate the Middle East.
another interim agreement.
Secondly, the current hostilities between Iran and GCC
Questions from the audience addressed a wide range
member states should not continue. Thirdly, he cautioned
of issues from the role of the US in the Middle East follow-
against looking at regional developments as a zero-sum
ing its deal with Iran, to the future of regional bodies such
game. Finally, he argued that the region is in need of
as the GCC. Dr Ali Ansari, Professor of Modern History at
paradigm reordering, making sure that all states’ security
the University of St Andrews, asked whether the United
concerns are recognised.
States’ role is crucial to any regional security framework
Mousavian stressed that the interim nuclear agreement
and whether Iran could accept a continued US presence in
carries with it the opportunity to stabilise the region as a
the Gulf. In response to his question, Mousavian stated that
whole. He urged regional states to support the Iran–US rap-
the US should support a regional cooperation system, but
prochement and called for the easing of tensions between
that it should not have a permanent presence in the Middle
Iran and Saudi Arabia. He also pushed for the creation of
East. Asked by Dergham about Oman’s recent threat to
a regional security-cooperation system that incorporates
withdraw from the GCC should it turn into a union, he
GCC states, Iran and Iraq.
affirmed Oman’s right to express its views on the Gulf
According to Dr Gary Samore, Executive Director for Research at Harvard University’s Belfer Center, much of
Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bahrain at the Opening Reception
104 | The 9th IISS Regional Security Summit
union initiative. However, he described the union as inevitable, with or without Oman’s participation.
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION I: Regional Implications of the Syrian War Speakers in this session debated the military,
at the Geneva II talks, and compel Assad
role in Syria. The question of whether, and
humanitarian and diplomatic aspects of the
to negotiate in good faith. If such a shift in
how, to include Iran in the Geneva talks
Syrian crisis. In particular, they examined
power materialises, the opposition might
could prove key to this possibility.
the prospects and modalities of the upcom-
be able to extract significant terms from the
ing Geneva talks meant to devise a political
Syrian regime.
Some speakers warned that the legacy of the intervention in Iraq tainted the policy-
solution to the Syrian crisis. Diplomacy, it
The unfolding of the Syrian crisis
making debate on Syria. Uncertainty over
was agreed, needed to be pursued in order to
changed local perceptions of regional and
potential post-intervention dynamics and
test the Assad regime but many feared that
global actors. The Syrian crisis has eroded
power dispensation was considerable, es-
it could legitimise it and play in its favour.
Russia’s image in the Arab world, and Mos-
pecially with the rise of jihadi groups. At
Some made the case that there was no
cow now has to prove its ability to deliver
the same time, the longer the conflict, the
military solution to the Syrian war because
on a transition. That said, its steadfast sup-
more unstable the region, the more sectar-
of its practical challenges. In response, it was
port of Assad has also enhanced its cred-
ian the conflict and the greater the humani-
argued that a military solution exists, but it
ibility as an ally, as its cunning diplomacy
tarian catastrophe.
is the appetite for intervention that is lim-
contrasted positively with American inde-
Amid this climate, the audience agreed
ited. Some said that there will be no political
cision. Russia, it was argued, supported
that Geneva II provides an opportunity for
solution in Syria without changing the mili-
the principle of a negotiated transition and
all concerned parties to engage construc-
tary balance through strikes and serious ma-
would endorse any arrangement accept-
tively. The international community could
terial support to the opposition. In essence,
able to all Syrian parties.
capitalise on recent diplomatic successes
changing military dynamics will place the
It was also agreed that changing global
opposition in a strong negotiating position
conditions could compel Iran to reduce its
to craft a long-term strategy to stabilise Syria.
(l–r) Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS–Middle East; Alistair Burt, Member of Parliament, Former Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK; Ambassador Faris Mohammed Ahmed Al Mazrouei, Assistant Foreign Minister for Security and Military Affairs, UAE; Lapo Pistelli, Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Italy; Sergey Vershinin, Director, Middle East and North Africa Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russia; and Wu Sike, Special Envoy to the Middle East, China
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION II: The Dangers of Sectarianism and Extremism in Politics This session began with a candid survey of
sectarianism – encouraged by outside actors
tity was developed not only to combat the di-
the problems faced by states in the Middle
and inefficient government – and a unitary
visive effects of sub-state communal politics,
East when it came to divisive political iden-
national identity anchored in strong and co-
but also to mobilise all groups to unite behind
tity. Sub-state sectarian identities flourished
herent government institutions.
a project of economic development. The re-
when states failed to deliver government
The comparative example of Southeast
sult was a multiculturalism based on a num-
services in an efficient and equitable man-
Asia was then discussed, examining the suc-
ber of government policies that banned polit-
ner. Education was also central to counter-
cess of recent negotiations to end sub-state
ical parties that sought to represent only one
ing the growth of radical politics. An educa-
conflicts in Indonesia and the Philippines.
ethnic group. Government housing policies
tion system that focused on a unitary nation-
In these cases, both the state and insurgent
also sought to deliberately create communi-
al identity and piety, instead of extremism,
groups set aside years of mistrust to reach
ties that mixed Singapore’s different religious
would help.
compromise and end violent conflict. The
and ethnic groups.
Beyond the failures of states, the second
Singapore case study was then examined in
Finally, attempts at countering radical
cause of the increased sectarian identities
detail. Singapore suffered from race riots in
Islamism in Afghanistan were discussed. It
was the negative influence of other states. It
the 1950s, but had then set in place a series of
was argued that education, a vibrant media
was argued that there was a clear difference
policies designed to avoid the dominance of
and an empowered civil society had all been
between a political identity based on divisive
communal politics. A unitary national iden-
essential in reducing the influence of the
The Manama Dialogue 2013 | 105
Taliban after their removal from power. Key
of foreign policy; this was bound to cause
The discussion concluded by focusing
to its continuing success would be the reform
harm to those who sought to encourage it in
on the link between democratisation and
of the security forces and the bolstering of the
other states as ‘snakes cannot be trained only
the rise of identity politics and how best to
rule of law.
to bite other people’. To counter this strategy,
move political mobilisation away from a fo-
the Afghan government had engaged in an
cus on religion, towards a focus on govern-
active policy of regional alliance building.
ment efficiency.
The Afghan case also served to highlight the dangers of fomenting radicalism as a tool
(l–r): Dr Toby Dodge, Senior Consulting Fellow for the Middle East, IISS; and Sheikh Thamer Ali Al Sabah, President, National Security Bureau, Kuwait; Dr Mohamad Maliki Bin Osman, Minister of State for Defence, Singapore; and Zalmay Rassoul, Presidential Candidate and former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Afghanistan
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION III: The Shifting Regional Balance and Outside Powers Iran was at the heart of discussions in this
ing ties between Washington and its
ventional military capabilities. In particular,
session – specifically, how Tehran’s chang-
traditional regional allies. US allies in the
efforts to build up a more capable missile-
ing relationship with Washington and with
Gulf had been unsettled by the United
defence architecture in the Gulf could be
neighbouring states could reshape the re-
States’ ‘rebalance’ to Asia, by suspicion over
viewed as a security guarantor, in the event
gion. Discussions were framed by the ques-
the motivation for a deal with Iran and by
that the nuclear deal falters.
tion of whether the region actually showed a
concerns that the pending withdrawal from
Broader capacity building within the
tilt in the balance of power, and whether or
Afghanistan presages a wider disengage-
Gulf states remains a goal for the US and its
not perceptions of reduced US commitment
ment.
allies. NATO also has a growing interest in
were justified.
Such perceptions and concerns were ac-
supporting capability developments in the
The possibility of recasting relations be-
knowledged, but it was argued by several
region, as some Gulf states begin to partici-
tween Washington and Tehran is facilitated by
participants that they were inaccurate, and
pate – on an ad hoc and small-scale basis – in
the interim agreement on Iran’s nuclear pro-
that Washington would continue to main-
military roles, as part of alliance operations
gramme, which is intended to address wide-
tain a robust military posture in the region.
such as in Afghanistan and Libya. This ca-
spread concern that Iran’s goals for the project
This reflected the United States’ ‘deep and
pacity will be confined to limited areas only
are military, rather than civil. Iran may also be
enduring security interests’ in the Middle
for some time, however, before the region
emboldened by its intervention in Syria’s civil
East.
can become a ‘net exporter’ of security.
However, even if the interim agreement
There emerged a consensus view that any
In parallel to the proposition of an
paved the way to a lasting nuclear deal, there
shift in the regional balance was still only po-
ascendant Iran, was the notion of fray-
remain other areas of concern over Iran’s con-
tential, rather than actual.
war, an action that could yet prove decisive.
(l–r): Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS–US; Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East; General Lloyd James Austin III, Commander, US Central Command; General Sir Nicholas Houghton, Chief of the Defence Staff, UK; and Alexander Vershbow, Deputy Secretary-General, NATO
106 | The 9th IISS Regional Security Summit
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSION IV: Changing Energy Markets and Middle East Security This session focused on changes in the inter-
region have to address – through politically
removed, means that other cartel members
national energy landscape, and what they
difficult measures to reduce subsidies, as
would have to cut back.
mean for Middle East exporters, as well as
well as investment in renewable energy and
energy dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation
nuclear-energy generation.
On the demand side, although there is wide agreement that improving efficiency,
Speakers’ interpretations of global en-
fuel-switching and technological innovation
ergy market developments and their im-
are moving energy systems towards a new
The rapid growth of energy consumption
plications for the Gulf were more diverse.
era, it is unclear to what extent this threatens
in GCC states is now widely perceived as one
On the supply side, the new sources of oil
Gulf energy producers, and when these ef-
of the main strategic threats to the economic
production in North America, especially
fects would begin to be felt strongly.
security of the region. GCC countries have,
‘tight oil’, are perceived by some as a short-
Two other important developments were
until recently, fuelled exponential growth in
term phenomenon bound to recede later in
highlighted in the session. Firstly, that en-
electricity generation with natural gas. Now,
this decade or early in the next, while oth-
ergy markets are rapidly shifting eastwards.
all except Qatar experience severe natural-
ers see it as a structural competitive threat
Asian economies – starting with China – are
gas shortages. Kuwait and the UAE import
to Gulf producers. The growth in Iraqi oil-
now the main energy-trading partners of
growing volumes of liquefied natural gas,
production capacity is potentially a threat
Gulf producers, as Atlantic markets recede in
and Saudi Arabia has to burn ever-larger vol-
to OPEC’s ability to manage the price of oil,
importance. Secondly, Gulf producers are in-
umes of crude oil in power plants to gener-
but some are confident that OPEC mem-
volved in infrastructure investment projects
ate heavily subsidised – and therefore largely
bers will find a compromise to accommo-
(pipeline systems and export terminals) that
wasted – electricity. Panellists agreed that
date Iraqi oil. The potential ramping-up of
will reduce their reliance on the Strait of Hor-
this is a serious problem that countries in the
Iranian exports, if and when sanctions are
muz as an export outlet.
Council (GCC) countries themselves. There was more agreement on the latter.
(l–r): Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-Economics and Strategy, IISS–Middle East; Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Chief Executive, The Oil and Gas Holding Company, Bahrain; Nizar Al-Adsani, Chief Executive Officer, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation; and Dr Mohammed Al Sabban, Former Senior Economic Advisor to the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia
The Manama Dialogue 2013 | 107
10
YEARS OF THE IISS MANAMA DIALOGUE
2004
2005
2006
Countries Represented: AFGHANISTAN AUSTRALIA AZERBAIJAN BAHRAIN BRAZIL CANADA CHINA EGYPT ESTONIA
2007
2008
2009
FRANCE GERMANY INDIA IRAN IRAQ ITALY JAPAN JORDAN KUWAIT MOROCCO NORWAY
2010
2012
2013
OMAN PAKISTAN QATAR RUSSIA REPUBLIC OF KOREA SAUDI ARABIA SINGAPORE SWEDEN SYRIA TURKEY UAE UK US YEMEN
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