IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015 by International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES TRANS-PACIFIC SUMMIT, CARTAGENA, COLOMBIA, 6–8 MARCH 2015

IISS Cartagena Dialogue

HOST NATION SUPPORT: MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE, COLOMBIA

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES TRANS-PACIFIC SUMMIT, CARTAGENA, COLOMBIA, 6–8 MARCH 2015

IISS Cartagena Dialogue

HOST NATION SUPPORT: MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE, COLOMBIA

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

IISS Cartagena Dialogue The International Institute for Strategic Studies

© April 2015 The International Institute for Strategic Studies Director-General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman Editor Dr Nicholas Redman Contributors Dr Sanjaya Baru, Virginia Comolli, Nigel Inkster, Antônio Sampaio,

Katherine Slowe, Dr Isabel DiVanna Editorial Dr Ayse Abdullah Editorial Research James Howarth, Claire Willman Production and Design John Buck, Kelly Verity

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the Institute.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute are international and its membership is drawn from over 90 countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation. The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate.

Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Chapter 1

Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Chapter 2

Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Chapter 3

Reception . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Chapter 4

Social media . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Chapter 5

Press coverage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Selected IISS publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

Contents

Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia

IISS Cartagena Dialogue

Foreword

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is delighted to release and distribute this summary report of the proceedings of the new international ‘Dialogue’ following in the footsteps of the successful Shangri-La Dialogue (Singapore) and Manama Dialogue (Bahrain). The inaugural ‘IISS Cartagena Dialogue: The Trans-Pacific Summit’ was held from 6–8 March in Cartagena, Colombia. The focus of the summit was the developing relations between the Latin American states of the Pacific Alliance and key countries from the Asia-Pacific. The summit had a geoeconomic focus with a strong security and stability component. The four founding states of the Pacific Alliance – Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru – have a combined GDP close to that of Brazil and have growing relations with Asia. A number of countries in Asia, especially China, Japan, South Korea, and increasingly others, have economic and political interests in the Pacific Alliance states. The IISS Cartagena Dialogue explored the growing links between the two sides of the Pacific and encouraged the strengthening of political, diplomatic, economic and commercial links. Foreword

The summit brought together ministers and CEOs from Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, with additional participation from Panama, the Inter-American Development Bank and the IMF together with Brazil, China, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, the UK, and the United States. Further government and private-sector participants came from Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Costa Rica, Ecuador, France, Honduras, India, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Russia and Spain, contributing their expertise and perspectives to the ‘trans-Pacific’ debate. The IISS Cartagena Dialogue was a major inter-governmental summit with important private-sector and expert engagement. Total delegate numbers were 363 from 28 countries, allowing for inclusive representation but also sufficient intimacy to permit easy networking. Ministers conducted bilateral and multilateral meetings during the summit; opportunities were available for private-sector meetings with government representatives, as well as between the various business leaders in attendance. The agenda of the IISS Cartagena Dialogue ensured that key themes of common interest were fully covered. Plenary sessions provided an opportunity for Pacific Alliance government leaders to define relations with the Asia-Pacific, and likewise for Asia-Pacific leaders to outline their approaches to the Pacific states of Latin America. Perspectives from business leaders on trans-Pacific relations were also explored, as well as Asian trade and investment in Latin American commodities. Special sessions examined two geopolitical and security issues: ‘Insurgencies, Drugs and Security’ and ‘Organised Crime and the Informal Mining Sector’. There were also special sessions on ‘Financial Services Integration: Asian and Pacific Alliance Experiences’ and ‘Trans-Pacific Connections: Commodities, Trade and Investment’. Further plenaries addressed a transPacific agenda for cooperation and experiences from both sides of the Pacific on conflict resolution and rebuilding societies. 6

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

The Pacific Alliance is becoming a significant geo-economic entity. The free trade and liberal economic outlook it represents significantly shapes wider debate in Latin America. The common market it envisages offers inspiring opportunities for investors and businesses alike. The interest of the Alliance countries in engaging with the Asia-Pacific is likely to attract more foreign direct investment from the AsiaPacific. North American and European businesses and investors also have an interest in developing close ties with this evolving formation. The IISS Cartagena Dialogue was a major event in the 2015 calendar for those interested in Latin American geo-economic and geopolitical trends. The Institute is committed to establishing the Dialogue as an important multilateral event that invited coordinated policymaking and engaged businesses in the region. The IISS was delighted to have worked with the Government of Colombia and in particular with the Ministry of Defense, to organise this event. The IISS also warmly thanks TV Caracol, the Abraaj Group, HSBC, Mitsubishi Corporation and ICTSI for their enthusiasm and support for this successful IISS Cartagena Dialogue. Dr John Chipman Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Foreword

Juan Carlos Varela RodrĂguez, President of Panama

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES TRANS-PACIFIC SUMMIT, CARTAGENA, COLOMBIA 6–8 MARCH 2015

CHAPTER 1

Agenda

IISS Cartagena Dialogue

Executive summary

Marﾃｭa ﾃ］gela Holguﾃｭn Cuﾃｩllar, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Colombia

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

Agenda

Friday 6 March 2015 ALL DAY

Bilateral meetings between government officials

18:00–19:00 CARACOL OPENING TELEVISED PANEL LOOKING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC Chair: Juan Roberto Vargas, News Director, Caracol TV Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno, Minister of National Defense, Colombia Senator Gabriela Cuevas Barron, Chair, Foreign Affairs Committee, Senate of the Republic of Mexico Dr Chung Min Lee, Ambassador for National Security Affairs, Republic of Korea Luis Alberto Moreno, President, Inter-American Development Bank Dr Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund 19:00–20:00 OPENING RECEPTION 20:00–22:00 OPENING DINNER AND KEYNOTE ADDRESS THE PACIFIC ALLIANCE AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC: WHAT FUTURE COOPERATION?

Opening remarks: Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS Keynote address: Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia

Agenda

Saturday 7 March 2015 08:45–09:00 OPENING OF THE SUMMIT Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS 09:00–10:30 FIRST PLENARY SESSION THE PACIFIC ALLIANCE COUNTRIES AND ASIA Chair: Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Colombia José Antonio Meade Kuribreña, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Mexico Claudio de la Puente Ribeyro, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peru Edgardo Riveros, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chile 10:30–11:00 BREAK 11:00–12:30 SECOND PLENARY SESSION ASIAN PERSPECTIVES ON THE PACIFIC ALLIANCE Chair: Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS Dr Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund Cho Taeyul, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea Cesar Purisima, Secretary of Finance, Philippines Toshiro Suzuki, Ambassador at Large for International Economic Issues, Japan 12:30–14:30 LUNCH 14:30–16:00 THIRD PLENARY SESSION THE TRANS-PACIFIC OPPORTUNITY: PERSPECTIVES FROM THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY Chair: Bill Emmott, Trustee of the IISS; former Editor, The Economist Yorihiko Kojima, Chairman of the Board, Mitsubishi Corporation David Bojanini García, Chief Executive Officer, Grupo SURA Katia Bouazza, Head, Latin America and Capital Financing, HSBC Bank USA Omar Lodhi, Partner and Regional Head of East Asia, The Abraaj Group 16:00–16:30 BREAK 16:30–18:00 FOURTH PLENARY SESSION CONFLICT RESOLUTION AND REBUILDING SOCIETIES Chair: Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS-Asia Gen (Retd) Óscar Adolfo Naranjo Trujillo, Counsel Minister for Post Conflict, Human Rights and Security, Colombia 12

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

Dr Gino Costa, Former Minister of Interior, Peru Dr Dino Patti Djalal, Former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia Senen Bacani, Member, Government Peace Negotiating Panel, Philippines 20:00–22:00 GALA DINNER AND SPECIAL ADDRESS REFLECTIONS ON THE TRANS-PACIFIC CHALLENGE Hosted by: Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno, Minister of National Defense, Colombia

Sunday 8 March 2015 09:00–11:00 SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSIONS GROUP I: INSURGENCIES, DRUGS AND INSECURITY Chair: Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow for Security and Development, IISS Gustavo Mohar, Founder and Director-General, Grupo Atalaya; former Secretary General, CISEN, Mexico Javier Ciurlizza, Program Director, Latin America and the Caribbean, International Crisis Group Tom Kramer, Researcher, Drugs and Democracy Programme, Transnational Institute Sarah MacIntosh, Director-General for Defence and Intelligence, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK GROUP II:

SPECIAL SESSION II: TRANS-PACIFIC CONNECTIONS: COMMODITIES, TRADE AND INVESTMENT

Chair: Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial; Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, IISS Jorge Merino, Former Minister of Mines and Energy, Peru Dr Octavio Pastrana, Member of the Board, Pemex José Juan Ruiz Gómez, Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank Dr Brendon Hammer, First Assistant Secretary, Americas Division, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia GROUP III:

ORGANISED CRIME AND THE INFORMAL MINING SECTOR

Chair: Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS Hernán de Solminihac, Former Minister of Mining, Chile César Ipenza Peralta, Professor of Environmental Impact, ESAN Graduate School of Business Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy, Climate Change and Extractive Industries Program, Inter-American Dialogue Agenda

Wangkai Lang, Managing Director, Mining MMD China (remarks delivered by Dr Wenguang Shao, Consulting Senior Fellow for China and International Affairs, IISS) GROUP IV:

FINANCIAL SERVICES INTEGRATION: ASIAN AND PACIFIC ALLIANCE EXPERIENCES

Chair: Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director of Geo-Economics and Strategy, IISSMiddle East Dr Felipe Larraín Bascuñán, Senior Adviser to the IISS; former Minister of Finance, Chile Dr Luis Miguel Castilla, Ambassador of Peru to the US; former Minister of Economy and Finance, Peru Dr Naoyuki Yoshino, Dean, Asian Development Bank Institute Dr Wonho Kim, Professor, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies; President, Latin American Studies Association of Korea 11:00–11:30 BREAK 11:30–13:00 FIFTH PLENARY SESSION AN AGENDA FOR TRANS-PACIFIC COOPERATION Chair: Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS Mauricio Cárdenas Santamaría, Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Colombia Dr Marty Natalegawa, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia Celso Amorim, Former Minister of External Affairs; former Minister of Defence, Brazil Lee Ark Boon, Deputy Secretary (Trade), Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore 13:00–13:15 STAGING BREAK 13:15–14:00 CONCLUDING KEYNOTE ADDRESS THE TRANS-PACIFIC FUTURE Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez, President of Panama 14:00–15:30 FAREWELL LUNCH

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES TRANS-PACIFIC SUMMIT, CARTAGENA, COLOMBIA 6–8 MARCH 2015

CHAPTER 2

Executive summary

IISS Cartagena Dialogue

Executive summary

Juan Carlos Pinz贸n Bueno, Minister of National Defense, Colombia

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

Executive summary

President Juan Manuel Santos opened the IISS Cartagena Dialogue: The Trans-Pacific Summit on 6 March 2015 with a keynote address. He described the integration of Colombia with the Asia-Pacific as ‘a dream, almost an obsession’ during the past two decades. The Dialogue – which brought together the four Pacific Alliance states of Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru, plus observer states from Latin America and Asia – represented a further step in Colombia’s trans-Pacific relationships, Santos said. The country’s GDP growth has averaged 5% annually in recent years, surpassing neighbouring countries. It attracts today more foreign investment than ever, thanks to the control of inflation and the reduction of poverty. Approximately two million people have been lifted out of poverty in the past four years, the president said, adding that the goal is to eradicate poverty entirely within a decade. President Santos told delegates that the peace process with the FARC paved the way for more social and economic progress. It held out the promise of ending the oldest conflict in the western hemisphere, which had run for 50 years. He spoke candidly about the difficulties of striking a balance between peace and justice for victims in the talks with FARC Executive summary

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Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia

being held in Havana, Cuba. Colombia’s goal, he said, is to achieve a level of justice that allows peace. On a positive note, he shared with the audience the experience of victims of the conflict who journeyed to Havana and returned home more willing to forgive than before. Colombia entered the talks from a position of strength and increased security that was a result of the strengthening of the armed forces and the police, President Santos said. The security forces were able to achieve significant victories that debilitated FARC during the years prior to the Havana talks. Improved security has also been one of the pillars of Colombia’s economic and social progress, he added. These advances have been supported by integration with the global economy: Colombia now has preferential access to 1.5 billion consumers in the Americas, Europe and soon the AsiaPacific. The Pacific Alliance, he said, is such a promising trade initiative because it seeks ‘deep integration’ between the four current member countries. The Alliance, he added, is the most dynamic platform for economy and trade in Latin America, pursuing the free circulation of goods, services, capital and people.

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

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The president highlighted the deepening integration of the Pacific Alliance countries into Asian political and economic fora such as ASEAN and APEC. One of the challenges for

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Colombia is to diversify the range of its exports to Asia-Pacific countries. Santos said Colombia will exploit its agricultural potential to sell more food products to Asian countries, where populations and incomes are rising, stoking increased demand for food products. The IISS Cartagena Dialogue, the president concluded, reaffirms Colombia’s role as a point of contact between Asia and Latin America. Shortly before President Santos gave the keynote address, Caracol Television organised a debate involving delegates and speakers at the Dialogue, chaired by News Director Juan Roberto Vargas and broadcast to 27 Latin American countries. He began by asking panellists to assess the importance of the relationship between Latin America and Asia. Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno, Minister of National Defense of Colombia, described Asia as a benchmark for the world economy and a centre of technological development; he noted that Latin America was smaller but that the Pacific Alliance nevertheless constituted a market of comparable size to Brazil or India, and Executive summary

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(l–r) Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno, Minister of National Defense, Colombia; Dr Chung Min Lee, Ambassador for National Security Affairs, Republic of Korea; Luis Alberto Moreno Mejia, President, InterAmerican Development Bank; Dr Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, IMF; Senator Gabriela Cuevas Barron, Chair of the Mexican Senate’s Foreign Affairs Committee

thus was an attractive partner for Asia. Dr Chung Min Lee, Korea’s Ambassador for National Security Affairs, agreed with that assessment, predicting that the Pacific Alliance would become a growth driver and core region within the Americas. Luis Alberto Moreno Mejia, president of the Inter-American Development Bank, noted the increased trade flows: Asia’s share in Latin American trade rose from 8% in 2000 to almost 25% in 2014, although the distribution varied widely with Mexico and Brazil dominating. A south–south dialogue could help Latin America close the gap with Asia on technology and education, he said, but also help Asia handle the transitions associated with urbanisation – a process that Latin America has largely completed. Dr Min Zhu, deputy director general of the IMF, also noted the rapid increase in trade flows and said that Latin America was already integrated in some Asian vertically integrated supply chains. The closeness of the economies was apparent in the high degree of correlation between Asian and Latin American stockmarkets, he added. Senator Gabriela Cuevas Barron, chair of the Mexican Senate’s Foreign Affairs Committee, noted the lack of panPacific institutions to stimulate contacts between Latin

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

America and Asia, aside from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade initiative. The Pacific Alliance, she added, has great potential as a market and an exporter of some important commodities such as silver and copper. Mr Vargas then turned attention to the question of insecurity and how that affected business decisions. Senator Cuevas observed that, according to the UN, seven of the world’s ten most dangerous countries are located in Latin America, and yet this had not proven to be a barrier to investment. Insecurity, even in the worst-afflicted states, was not uniform, she noted. Chung Min Lee suggested that perceptions of Asian investors sometimes failed to keep pace with improving realities in Colombia and Mexico, while also noting that Asia suffered from inter-state tensions that were largely absent in Latin America. Minister Pinzón added that it was important to boost security in order for investors to feel comfortable – noting that economic development was vital to underpin the security gains made in Colombia in recent years. Touching on Dr Lee’s comparison of security in Asia and Latin America, he said that the latter enjoyed considerable security at the inter-state level but low levels of security at the personal level.

Plenary 1: The Pacific Alliance Countries and Asia Opening the first plenary session, María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Colombia, outlined the importance of the Pacific Alliance in supporting Colombia’s development and integration in Asia. Colombia’s partners share our vision, she said, but they have already built links to Asia through trade agreements and we have benefited from their experience and the ability to share diplomatic missions. The Pacific Alliance is focused on Asia because it believes the region is the lynchpin of the global economy in the 21st century, the minister remarked. Within Latin America, the agenda for cooperation within the alliance includes migration, easing travel between the Executive summary

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(l–r) María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Colombia; José Antonio Meade Kuribrena, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Mexico

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regions. Already these nations are reaping the benefits of easier freedom of movement, the minister remarked, and are continuing to work together despite changes of government in member-countries. In Asia, the Pacific Alliance has started a relationship with ASEAN – a grouping that, like the alliance, is a good example of open regionalism and ensuring stability and prosperity. José Antonio Meade Kuribrena, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Mexico, reflected on the failure of Latin America until recently to make a success of regional integration, despite commonalities of language, culture, values, history and aspirations. The Pacific Alliance, he suggested, marks a change for the better. It has been assisted by having two main objectives: to build a single, deeply integrated economic space; and to create a platform to promote the countries in the wider world and especially in Asia. A great deal of progress has been made on the first objective over the last three years, not only regarding trade but also visa and stockmarket integration, he said. Secretary Meade said that the next step is to promote the Pacific Alliance countries in the Pacific region and to create

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

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opportunities for business-to-business contacts. To that end, they hope to hold an APEC-Pacific Alliance meeting on the margins of the Latin American Economic Forum in April. The theme of the Pacific Alliance being a response to previous failed integration efforts was taken up by Claudio

(l–r) Claudio de la Puente Ribeyro, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peru; Edgardo Riveros, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chile

de la Puente Ribeyro, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peru. Broader integration projects have been stymied by ideological and developmental differences among states, he said, prompting Peru’s then-president Alen Garcia to establish a vanguard for integration based on a core group of solid democracies with similar outlooks on economic and trade policy. The Pacific Alliance is the first integration venture based on common interests rather than geographical proximity, the vice minister said. It is open to other states in the region, so long as they share the alliance’s values and standards. Looking to Asia, the vice minister vowed to help and support Colombia’s desire to join APEC. There is considerable Asian interest in the Pacific Alliance, he added, noting that there are 32 observer states, half of which are Asian. Speaking of Peru’s own ties to Asia, he recalled that diplomatic relations Executive summary

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First Plenary Session

with China and Japan were established in the 1870s and that today the country is home to the largest Chinese community in Latin America and the second-largest Japanese community. Today China is Peruâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s leading trade partner and a major investor too. Addressing another aspect of the Pacific Alliance, Edgardo Riveros, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chile, observed that the world is now comprised of trade groupings, making integration a necessity in order to create efficient development and foreign-trade policies. The individual states of the Pacific Alliance have forged many bilateral Free-Trade Agreements (FTAs), he said, but acting individually is no longer sufficient. The Pacific Alliance stands out because of its desire to become a genuine regional platform. He affirmed Chileâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s commitment to far-reaching trade liberalisation and opening the trade in services and government procurement within the Alliance. The Pacific Allianceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Asian focus can help with important domestic objectives, in particular the cause of reducing inequality within Latin America, the vice minister said. Asian expertise and experience in science, technology and

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

innovation can help to narrow disparities of income and opportunity within the Pacific Alliance states. The debate that followed the speeches touched on the question of whether the Pacific Alliance’s Asian focus represented an effort to reduce economic reliance on China, and also on the difficulty of balancing close security ties with the US and growing trade ties with China – a dilemma that is common to some Asian and Latin American states. Dr Felipe Larraín Bascuñán, Chile’s former Minister of Finance and Senior Adviser to the IISS, raised the question of the Alliance widening or deepening, and whether that necessitated institutional development. The two foreign ministers were emphatic in their response. Secretary Meade said the Pacific Alliance’s limited bureaucracy and institutionalism has been hugely advantageous. Minister Holguín warned that the creation of a bureaucracy could deprive the alliance of dynamism and creativity. It is essential to not create a bureaucratic machine, she added.

Plenary 2: Asian Perspectives on the Pacific Alliance Dr Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, observed that Latin America’s exports to Asia had risen substantially. Moreover, China and Japan were providing significant capital flows to Latin America and equity markets had become closely aligned. Asian economies were now moving from export-led policies towards the development of domestic economies, the expansion of the middle class and a strong financial sector. China’s current spending on investment, at 44% of GDP, is unsustainable: a cut to 34% of GDP over several years would have significant adverse impacts on Latin American commodity markets. The challenge is to establish a ‘new normal’ in relations between Asia and Latin America, moving beyond the commodity cycle towards a more broad-based relationship involving increased consumerism, services and agriculture. This should involve not just the major corporations but also small and Executive summary

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(lâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;r) Cho Taeyul, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea; Dr Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund.

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medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Such an evolution would have profound social and cultural implications. It would be characterised by greater levels of technology transfer and increased investment in infrastructure and education, which would bring substantial benefits including reductions in income inequality. Cho Taeyul, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea, emphasised the importance for South Korea of the Pacific Alliance. Already Seoul is negotiating bilateral Free-Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the four Alliance states. Although Korea has a long-standing relationship of trust with Colombia, dating back to the Korean War, Seoul feels a sense of camaraderie with all four Pacific Alliance states based on a shared outlook. Latin America has been a laboratory for competing theories of economic development, he said, but it now appears that the open, free-trade model espoused by the Pacific Alliance is carrying the day. Latin America as a whole faces a shortfall in infrastructure: the cost of remedying it is expected to rise to US$120 billion by 2020, the vice minister stated. South Korean companies are well placed to work in this sphere, creating high-quality jobs and added value.

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

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Cesar Purisima, Secretary of Finance, Philippines, observed that the trans-Pacific alliance was not a new idea. Some 450 years ago there had been a galleon trade between Acapulco and Manila involving bullion on one side and Chinese manufactured goods on the other. At that time, and

(l–r) Cesar Purisima, Secretary of Finance, Philippines; Toshiro Suzuki, Ambassador at Large for International Economic Issues, Japan

for most of recorded history, China had been the world’s largest economy and it was now resuming that status. Asia as a whole would soon account for two-thirds of the world’s middle class, he stated. Re-establishing the galleon trade will require clarity of vision. The Pacific Alliance, for instance, should be clear about its role within Latin America. If it is to be a hub for inter-American trade, it requires increased connectivity and the negotiation of gold-standard FTAs ideally involving the abolition of tariffs, since the transportation costs of trans-Pacific trade already constitute a significant tariff. Secretary Purisima added that the Pacific Alliance should serve as a channel for information, to overcome the cultural and linguistic barriers hampering trans-Pacific trade. Ambassador Toshiro Suzuki of Japan said that his country would shortly have FTAs with all Pacific Alliance nations once its negotiations with Colombia were concluded. Executive summary

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Second Plenary Session

The keidanren has set up a Pacific Alliance task force, and in 2014 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe brought 250 Japanese businessmen on his visits to Colombia, Mexico and Chile. To fulfil its potential, he said, the Pacific Alliance has to overcome several challenges including diversifying its production base and increasing its manufacturing capacity. Japan is investing heavily in Latin America and its involvement in Mexicoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s automotive industry included the local sourcing of parts. The Pacific Alliance should also integrate its value chain into the global supply chain, improve infrastructure and logistics, harmonise regulations and provide greater support for its SMEs. Finally, the Alliance should raise productivity through investments in education, training and technology. Japan was ready to play a greater role in assisting in all these areas, the ambassador concluded. Questions and comments to speakers included an emphasis on the need for the Pacific Alliance project to move from a negotiated elite project to one that was more organic and commanded broad popular support. It should move beyond a focus on FTAs and address security and climate change. Greater engagement with SMEs in the Pacific Alliance

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

was also needed, as currently they view greater engagement with Asia as a source of unwelcome competition rather than an opportunity. There was also discussion of the political implications of greater trans-Pacific trade including the need for states to maintain a balance in their relations with the USA and with China.

Plenary 3: The Trans-Pacific Opportunity: Perspectives from the Business Community This session was chaired by Bill Emmott, former editor, The Economist and an IISS Trustee. In his opening remarks Emmott emphasised the significance of the IISS inviting business leaders to speak at the Cartagena Dialogue. Relationships between nations are mediated not just by governments but also through people-to-people and business-to-business interactions, he said. Business plays an important role in the interaction between the Pacific Alliance countries and the countries of the Asia-Pacific, with growing trade and investment relations. Speaking first, Yorihiko Kojima, Chairman of the Board, Mitsubishi Corporation, focused on three issues, namely, the importance of free trade to economic development in the Asia-Pacific region, in the context of the growing economic integration through Global Value Chains (GVC); the expectations of Japanese business from the Pacific Alliance countries and the relations between Japan and the Pacific Alliance countries. He viewed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade initiative as an attempt to address the needs of multinational companies with trans-border investments through GVCs. With an aggregate income of US$2 trillion the Pacific Alliance economies were together as big as Italyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s and, therefore, offered an attractive market opportunity for Japanese companies. However, Mr Kojima felt, for transPacific trade to flourish it is necessary that there is political stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan seeks a stable, secure and peaceful Pacific region. Mr Kojima commended the Japan-Colombia Economic Partnership Executive summary

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(l–r) Yorihiko Kojima, Chairman of the Board, Mitsubishi Corporation; Omar Lodhi, Partner and Regional Head of East Asia, The Abraaj Group

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Agreement (EPA) and viewed it as a good framework for increasing trade and investment flows. He believed this would encourage Japanese firms to invest in the region and also set up joint ventures with Latin American firms in third markets, especially Southeast Asia. The second speaker, Omar Lodhi, Partner and Regional Head of East Asia, The Abraaj Group, drew attention to the growing significance of south-south trade and capital flows and viewed the Pacific Alliance as an initiative that would strengthen such flows. He identified three ‘drivers of change’ in Asia-Latin America relations: demographic change in both regions; urbanisation; and the rise of a new middle class. While Asian investment in the Latin American region was still very low, he saw this rising, especially with the new regulatory convergence in the region owing to regional blocs such as the Pacific Alliance. In fact the Pacific Alliance had progressed further than ASEAN as far as financial integration and regulatory convergence was concerned. The third speaker, Katia Bouazza, Head, Latin America and Capital Financing, HSBC Bank USA, emphasised the relevance of the globalisation and integration of financial

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

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markets for policy makers, especially in emerging markets, in dealing with the challenges posed by cross border flows of capital. She said global banks like HSBC have opened up investment opportunities in Latin America to international investors and have also been active in taking Latin American investors to attractive investment destinations. Any investor seeks four pre-conditions for taking a cross-border investment decision. Firstly, trade liberalisation and the free flow of

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(l–r) Katia Bouazza, Head, Latin America and Capital Financing, HSBC Bank USA; David Bojanini García, Chief Executive Officer, Suramericana Investment Group; Bill Emmott, Trustee of the IISS; former Editor, The Economist

goods and services. Secondly, transparent dispute settlement mechanisms. Thirdly, an initial level of protection to facilitate growth of business. Fourthly, policy transparency and stability. ‘No one likes uncertainty’, she emphasised. The last speaker, David Bojanini García, Chief Executive Officer, Grupo SURA, listed the strengths of the Pacific Alliance economies and emphasised the relevance of financial services integration within the region for domestic and overseas investors. While the integration of regional stock markets was an important step forward in this regard, he sought further liberalisation of policy with regard to pension funds and outlined the potential benefits. Policymakers should promote the benefits of regional integration within the Pacific Executive summary

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Third Plenary Session

Alliance to businesses, he insisted, as many business leaders were unaware of the opportunities offered by Pacific Alliance economic integration. He saw the assertion of the rule of law and the freedom of markets and democratic governance as important attributes of the Pacific Alliance that would reassure investors. He believed events like the IISS Cartagena Dialogue would play an important role in increasing local and global awareness regarding the Pacific Alliance. In the discussion that followed participants underscored the fact that the economic integration of the region had been made possible by each of the governments pursuing sensible economic policies. However, they emphasised the need for greater regulatory convergence. In his intervention, Dr Felippe Larrain Bascunan, former finance minister of Chile, underscored the importance of economic growth, policy transparency and stability and democracy and the rule of law to the success of the Pacific Alliance economies.

Plenary 4: Conflict Resolution and Rebuilding Societies The session dwelt on the respective experiences of Asia and Latin America in ending long-running internal conflicts 32

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and then underpinning post-conflict stability. Gen (Retd) Ă&#x201C;scar Adolfo Naranjo Trujillo, Counsel Minister for PostConflict Human Rights and Security, Colombia, began by announcing an agreement at the peace talks in Havana on conflict de-escalation measures that will allow for demining work immediately. The Havana talks, he said, are not the result of a military stalemate; rather, they are the result of 15 years of strengthening the military, police and justice system. The decision to negotiate rather than seek outright military victory was ethical, the general said. It is important to show that politics can work for all Colombians, so there is no need to take up arms. Gen Naranjo recalled that the authorities studied 37 negotiation models before embarking on its peace initiative, to avoid repeating past failures. Planning for the post-conflict phase is already underway, he said, because this is vital to securing peace. In Havana, fundamental agreements have been reached on rural and agricultural issues. Progress has been made on political participation and the controversial topic of narcotics. The government insists that FARC acknowledges its reliance on the drug trade and explicitly renounce it, otherwise narcotics could become a threat to post-conflict stabilisation. Dr Dino Patti Djalal, former Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs, Indonesia, recounted the steps that ended the threedecade long conflict in Aceh that resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. The Free Aceh Movement (Geraken Aceh Merdeka, or GAM) was a formidable military force but the 2004 tsunami changed the conflict dynamic entirely, he said, killing 200,000 people and causing so much devastation that GAM was prompted to negotiate. Peace talks were completed in six months. The key to this success lay in five attributes: leadership, pragmatism, a forward-looking mindset, reconciliation and patience. President Yudhoyonoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s leadership and his insistence that a military solution would not provide a sustainable end to the conflict was vital; he changed societyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s perception of what Executive summary

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(lâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;r) Dr Dino Patti Djalal, former Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs, Indonesia; Senen Bacani, Member, Government of Philippines Peace Negotiating Panel

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constituted victory. Once negotiations began, pragmatism and flexibility were essential to making progress. Thus the Indonesian government agreed to demilitarisation of territory and the deployment of international observers. Equally important was the agreement of both sides to face the future rather than dwelling on past violations of human rights. All these steps enabled reconciliation, by which enemies became political partners, he concluded. In contrast with the rapid resolution in Aceh, the conflict involving the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the Philippines took 17 years of protracted negotiations. Senen Bacani, Member, Government of Philippines Peace Negotiating Panel, spoke about a process that is still potentially vulnerable. A confidence-building programme has been put into effect and in 2014 the government and MILF launched the Bangsamoro Development Plan to help sustainable peace and development. Decomissioning is vital, Mr Bacani said. He identified four essential elements for success in resolving conflicts: leadership, trust, historical justice and supportive consensus. Whereas the points regarding leadership and trust were largely in line with

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those offered earlier by Mr Djalal, Mr Bacani argued that a commitment to look honestly at past crimes, to right wrongs and make recompense, was vital for peace. It was also vital, he insisted, to have a national consensus in support of conflict resolution. Returning to the Latin American context, Dr Gino Costa, former Minister of the Interior, Peru, argued that El

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(l–r) Dr Gino Costa, former Minister of the Interior, Peru; Gen (Retd) Oscar Adolfo Naranjo Trujillo, Counsel Minister for Post-Conflict Human Rights and Security, Colombia; Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS-Asia

Salvador’s experience of ending an internal conflict was more relevant for Colombia than Peru’s. In El Salvador there was no ready military solution to the conflict, he said. The negotiation centred on how the guerrillas could be brought into the political mainstream and what price the state would pay to achieve their demobilisation. Politics has triumphed: two of the six presidents since the peace was made have been from the ranks of former guerrillas. However, the post-conflict period has been very violent, with high levels of crime, perhaps due to the failure to secure economic development. Colombia’s explicit focus on planning for post-conflict stabilisation was wise in the context of El Salvador’s troubles, Dr Costa said. However he cautioned that the drug trade made the FARC conflict more difficult to solve while the Statute of Executive summary

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Fourth Plenary Session

Rome and the existence of the International Criminal Court made a political pact less easy to construct. The

following

debate

touched

demobilisation

questions, societal attitudes and the tension between populism and statecraft when addressing conflict resolution. Lieutenant General (Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain, Senior Fellow, Delhi Policy Group praised the prudence of the Indonesian government in redefining its concept of victory. Too often national ego gets in the way of peace, he said.

Gala Dinner and Special Address: Reflections on the Trans-Pacific Challenge Speaking at the Gala Dinner, Colombian Defence Minister Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno highlighted Colombia’s counterinsurgency success during the past 15 years. The country was able to strengthen the public security forces thanks to a special tax aimed at expanding its capabilities and to Plan Colombia, the aid package promoted by the US. Thanks to these efforts, he said, approximately 90% of municipalities are now free of conflict. The security forces in Colombia have developed capacities for complex operations and had been able to move from 36

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defensive to offensive operations that pushed the guerrillas to remote regions of the country. Minister Pinzón added that security strategies such as Sword of Honour and Green Heart

Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno, Minister of National Defense, Colombia

were built on the capacity of the forces to adapt according to the shifting dynamics of armed groups. The country’s security forces are now skilled in planning and coordinating joint operations involving multiple agencies. Building a long-term sense of security, Minister Pinzón added, will take several years. The signing of a peace treaty would be just the first step toward peace and the public forces will be charged with maintaining the security environment in order to achieve social and economic prosperity. He also highlighted the armed forces’ involvement in the technical talks with FARC to pave the way for the end of the conflict, despite their 50-year-long struggle against the guerrilla group. Minister

Pinzón

expounded

the

concept

‘comprehensive security’ (seguridad integral) – the combination of law enforcement and military tools with other state institutions and services. He argued that the armed forces are tasked with providing the basic security guarantees for Executive summary

the state, but these need to be followed by strong institutions alongside education, health and job opportunities. This comprehensive approach is needed, he said, to tackle the shifting security dynamics in Colombia. Hybrid threats operating through diffuse networks will continue to pose challenges and require the attention of the armed forces. Hybrid groups, the minister added, are driven both by political and economic aims and benefit from technological innovations, global capital flows and migration. He highlighted terrorism, cyber attacks and transnational criminal groups engaged in the exploitation of natural resources, such as illegal mining and illegal fishing, as key security challenges ahead. These complex threats underscore the important role that the armed forces have to play in the future, as guarantors of peace, development and prosperity. The Colombian armed forces and police have adapted to these transnational and diffuse networks of armed groups through a process of modernisation, said Pinzón. Its public forces are now in a position to share their experiences with other countries. A total of 24,000 members of the military or police agencies from 70 countries have undertaken training with Colombian security practitioners. This experience and the growing links with the Asia–Pacific, he said, reinforce the role of Colombia as a key regional and global actor.

Simultaneous Special Session I: Insurgencies, Drugs and Insecurity The overarching theme was that both Asia and Latin America are struggling to deal with the insurgents that rely on the drug trade and other forms of criminality, and have in some cases become full-time criminals. Across Latin America, organised crime groups are highly adaptable and resilient. They have diversified their business activities, which include drug production and smuggling but also extortion, illegal mining, contraband, counterfeiting and human- and armstrafficking. Cartels are now vertically integrated in all these 38

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(l–r) Sarah MacIntosh, Director-General for Defence and Intelligence, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK; Javier Ciurlizza, Program Director, Latin America and the Caribbean, International Crisis Group

criminal activities which, a few years ago, they controlled only tangentially. There is a relationship between the organisational level of crime, and security. The fragmentation of cartels in Mexico, as a result of government policies, has produced a more disorganised criminal structure that is in flux and features high levels of violence. Elsewhere, violence is increasingly used for coercive reasons and the pattern of attacks has become more selective. Colombia’s conflict with the FARC is unique because it is the only ideological conflict that predates the end of the Cold War but continues today. Assuming that the peace process reaches a successful conclusion, it will have regional implications. One of the negative likely outcomes is that it will intensify the level of criminal activity. The slide of insurgency towards criminality is a global phenomenon. In Myanmar, there is evidence of close links between insurgents and organised crime. The country is believed to be the second-largest opium producer in the world; illegal mining and logging are also evident. Some armed groups in the north of the country even operate their own drug-control policies. Although ethnic Chinese groups are deeply involved in Myanmar’s drug-trafficking, Executive summary

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(lâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;r) Gustavo Mohar, Founder and DirectorGeneral, Grupo Atalaya; former Secretary General, CISEN, Mexico; Tom Kramer, Researcher, Drugs and Democracy Programme, Transnational Institute; Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow for Security and Development, IISS

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it would be a mistake to blame certain ethnic groups while ignoring the reality that crime-enabled corruption reaches high into the state apparatus. Until recently, the government has focused on arresting addicts and low-level traffickers but now it is considering a development-led approach that will involve local communities and address the issue of land rights, which goes to the heart of discontent, instability and criminality. Some European states recognise the nexus between insurgency and organised crime, as well as the transnational nature of the threat. The UK, for instance, is providing strategic assistance to partners to improve the socio-economic environment, strengthen governance and institutions, build criminal justice systems and disrupt crime. Yet there is also a responsibility in Western societies to work on demand reduction.

Special Session II: Trans-Pacific Connections: Commodities, Trade and Investment Trade has been the foundation of increased commercial ties between Latin America and Asia in recent years, but the cyclical downturn in commodity prices has revealed a structural problem: Latin America is overdependent on 40

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(lâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;r) Dr Octavio Pastrana, Member of the Board, Pemex; Jorge Merino, Former Minister of Mines and Energy, Peru

commodity exports to Asia. The discussion addressed two principal themes: the importance of investing in mineral exploration to ensure sufficient capacity in the next decade; and the challenges of achieving diversification, through a broader range of exports and the attraction of more foreign, especially Asian, investment. In Mexico, the government has embarked on an ambitious reform of the oil sector with the aim of attracting the resources necessary to increase output by 1m-2m barrels per day. This has involved constitutional reform and political controversy, in order to establish a new environment characterised by sectoral liberalisation, protection for investment and higher levels of transparency. In Peru, meanwhile, the authorities have cut taxes in response to falling copper prices and are seeking to attract still-higher levels of foreign investment in order to address an expected 2m tonnes per year shortfall in supply to the global market by the end of this decade. Companies from China, Japan and Korea are all heavily involved. Chile, Peru and Mexico together could account for 40% of global copper output. In Peru and Mexico there is a challenge for investors to ensure that new projects are undertaken in a way that ensures the support of local communities. Partnership and development are key to success. Executive summary

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(l–r) Dr Brendon Hammer, First Assistant Secretary, Americas Division, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia; José Juan Ruiz Gómez, Chief Economist, InterAmerican Development Bank; Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial; Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, IISS

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Diversification of exports from Latin America to Asia will depend partly on how ready Latin American states are to receive investment; currently, not all are. There is potentially an investment bonanza at hand: up to half of inward investment to Latin America could be of Asian origin within the next five years, and some investment could flow in the other direction too. Here the Pacific Alliance states seem particularly well-placed, because of their commitment to free markets, open competition and a rules-based system. Investment will contribute to easing three structural impediments on Latin American economies: informality and low productivity; inadequate infrastructure; and income inequality. With the right preconditions in place, Latin America will be able to diversify its export of goods and services to Asia, and in particular to take advantage of the expected growth in Asia’s middle class. This offers considerable opportunities for services, in particular tourism. For instance, the number of Chinese tourists going abroad each year is expected to double to 200m by 2020 and their appetites will become more sophisticated. Another growth area is agriculture, as improving security in Latin America makes it possible to cultivate undeveloped land; this could help to feed a growing

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Asia while also lifting large numbers of Latin Americans out of poverty and unemployment. The further development of the Pacific Alliance economies will not only boost trade with Asia, but also raise trade among members. Today, only 10% of the Pacific Allianceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trade is within the bloc but the allianceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s recognition that trade is important for development should have a positive influence across the continent.

Special Session III: Organised Crime and the Informal Mining Sector The session examined the links between criminal groups and informal miners, an issue of growing concern for the mineral-producing countries of the Pacific Alliance. The boom in commodity prices during the 2000s boosted formal economies but also encouraged non-state armed groups, both guerrillas and organised criminals, to deepen their operations in mineral-rich areas. Participants highlighted how attractive the activity has become for inhabitants of rural areas, since mining is now usually more profitable than agriculture. In some parts of Colombia and Peru, armed groups are now more likely to engage in informal mining than drug trafficking, encouraged by state weakness. In Colombia, over 80% of mineral extraction is unlicensed. Illegal actors are able to conceal their involvement by tapping into trading companies, which then mix the illegally-extracted minerals with the legal supplies. China is not only the main buyer of minerals from the Pacific Alliance, but also has its own domestic problems with informality. Efforts to tackle the problem started in earnest in 1997. By then, approximately half of Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s coal output was informal. The activity prospered thanks in part to corrupt local officials, especially in regions where coal mining represented a big portion of the economy. Criminal gangs have also had involvement with the activity. But thanks to new laws, regulations and a campaign by the national government, several informal mines have been closed. The government Executive summary

(lâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;r) CĂŠsar Ipenza Peralta, Professor of Environmental Impact, ESAN Graduate School of Business; HernĂĄn de Solminihac, former Minister of Mining, Chile

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has offered training for small farmers and set a nation-wide inspections programme on coal safety, enforcing technical standards, safety measures and promoting best practices. Many international policies regarding informal mining were discussed. Efforts by West African countries to apply common regulations and tracking systems could serve as examples for the Pacific Alliance, as long as these are carefully adapted to local realities. On that front, speakers highlighted that there still is little exchange of ideas and best practices between member countries of the alliance. Some incentives for small miners to seek entry into the legal mining sector have been successful. Some Latin American countries, for instance, have established official institutions to help small miners to become legal and increase productivity while complying with environmental regulations. The guarantee of a minimum price for small miners was cited as a particularly successful incentive because it protects producers from variations in international commodity markets. As Asia-Pacific countries are significant consumers of mineral supplies, the session analysed the scope for greater trans-Pacific cooperation. It was proposed that countries on both sides of the Pacific increase information exchange to ensure that minerals sent to Asia are from legal producers. 44

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At present, the monitoring of the supply chain is conducted occasionally by importers (mostly in Asia), on their own initiative. The exchange of information between law enforcement authorities and the establishment of a transPacific system to monitor mineral supplies could help reduce informality and weaken organised crime.

Special Session IV: Financial Services Integration: Asian and Pacific Alliance Experiences

(lâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;r) Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy, Climate Change and Extractive Industries Program, Inter-American Dialogue; Dr Wenguang Shao, Consulting Senior Fellow for China and International Affairs, IISS; Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS

Speakers in this session considered four main opportunities: the acceleration of growth in the four economies of Pacific Alliance states compared to other South American players; the size of the Pacific Alliance market as a major incentive in attracting capital; the appetite to diversify investment streams; and the aim to harmonise the taxation of capital flows and currency exchanges. While there was agreement on matters of incentivising investment by reducing tariffs and taxes on transactions, there was controversy about sources of investment in the Pacific Alliance countries. This discrepancy was based on what each speaker perceived to be the immediate needs and best ways to deliver the economic and social goals of the Pacific Alliance. Infrastructure was one topic of contention, with Executive summary

(l–r) Dr Felipe Larraín Bascuñán, former Minister of Finance, Chile, and Senior Adviser to the IISS; Dr Naoyuki Yoshino, Dean, Asian Development Bank Institute

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some in the panel maintaining that it is critical to invest in infrastructure to ensure that the states in the Pacific Alliance can thrive long-term, while others referred to the need to balance risk in portfolios, infrastructure being on the risky side of investment. Pension funds were brought up as a major element in the integration agenda, so the matter of whether or not infrastructure should be a large part of portfolios was heatedly debated. In discussing diversification of income streams and business alliances, speakers concurred that in both regions SMEs are critical, far more than in Europe and the US. Integration there, they claimed, needs to revolve around ensuring that lending mechanisms become far more robust. The relative absence of suitable capital markets, especially for new enterprises, and the perceived lack of support from the state to small businesses, suggests that creative Asian models can be shared across the two regions. For example, the panel discussed how Hometown Investment Trust Funds can go a long way to provide financing to SMEs, having been successfully exported as a model from Japan to Peru, Cambodia and Vietnam. The panel made clear that creating the mechanisms to inject capital is only part of the solution. The session also addressed 46

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the importance of harmonising taxation, as well as matters of currency and liquidity. The Chiang Mai Initiative was raised as a particularly successful model of currency reserve fund. Its success is attributable to the fact that participant countries have a high level of trust and knowledge of each other’s macroeconomic features. Members of the Pacific Alliance, moving towards financial integration, will need to consider that unlike trade integration, financial integration is about sharing risks and promoting transparency in ways that enhance their relationship as well as an understanding of the upside and downside of currency collaboration.

(l–r) Dr Wonho Kim, Professor, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies; President, Latin American Studies Association of Korea; Dr Luis Miguel Castilla, Ambassador of Peru to the US; former Minister of Economy and Finance, Peru; Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director of Geo-Economics and Strategy, IISS-Middle East

The session also yielded a consensus on Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano (MILA), namely that efforts are not as yet sufficient to ensure financial integration, and that structural issues will be best addressed in coordinated microreforms which, in turn, will help deliver a broader Pacific Alliance framework.

Plenary 5: An Agenda for Trans-Pacific Cooperation Opening the session, Mauricio Cárdenas Santamaría, Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Colombia, noted that his country’s strong economic performance of recent years was based on achieving a level of trust among consumers, Executive summary

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(l–r) Dr Marty Natalegawa, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia; Lee Ark Boon, Deputy Secretary (Trade), Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore

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business and foreign investors. The minister noted that the Pacific Alliance was conceived at a time of high commodity prices, but now that the supercycle has passed the true value of alliance has become apparent, as it offers increased markets for the non-commodity sectors. In addition, the Pacific Alliance helps Colombia and its partners internationally, he said, noting the support that Mexico and Chile had offered his country in joining the OECD. The focus on Asia also underscores the connections between peace, development and global integration for Colombia. The country’s peace process will enable the state to establish its presence in territory where currently it is weak, he said. That in turn will open rich territories for agricultural production, and Asia will be the principal market for this output, creating prosperity that will sustain peace. Surveying trans-Pacific exchanges, Dr Marty Natalegawa, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia,

noted

the expansion of ASEAN’s initiatives to build the security architecture in the western Pacific in recent years, as well as multilateral initiatives such as the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum. He also touched upon APEC, TPP 48

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and the Forum for East Asia-Latin America Cooperation (FEALAC) as institutions that serve as a bridging function to Latin America. Dr Natalegawa offered a two-point agenda for cooperation, focused firstly on physical, institutional and people-to-

(l–r) Celso Amorim, Brazil’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs; Mauricio Cárdenas Santamaría, Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Colombia

people connectivity, and secondly on promoting a peaceful Pacific Ocean. It is important to not let sensitivities get in the way of addressing this important subject and confronting reality, he said. In building a new security architecture for the new century, he pointed to three objectives: improving strategic trust, managing territorial disputes peacefully and accommodating the rise of new powers. Celso Amorim, Brazil’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs and former Minister of Defence, took up the theme of peace and security by suggesting that the Pacific could draw lessons from the South Atlantic by establishing a zone of peace and cooperation. Central to this success, he said, was the effort to separate the South Atlantic from the broader ocean in a political sense. The former minister reminded delegates that Mercosur was larger than the Pacific Alliance and currently enjoyed higher levels of intra-bloc trade; that Executive summary

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Fifth Plenary Session

organisation and UNASUR, moreover, are overtly political projects designed to establish a zone of peace in which war is inconceivable. By contrast, he noted, the Pacific Alliance has no defence aspiration. Mr Amorim said Brazil is trying to create a Defence Council of South America that would stimulate high-technology industry across the continent and ensure that more of the military equipment procured in Latin America would be produced there. Returning to the theme of trans-Pacific cooperation, Lee Ark Boon, Singaporeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Deputy Secretary (Trade), Ministry of Trade and Industry spoke about the importance of boosting connectivity between governments, business and people. He argued for a strong regulatory infrastructure that went beyond FTAs, also embracing investment protection and double-taxation agreements. Trade negotiations are often difficult because of the internal dynamics in the participant states, he said, but insisted that it was beneficial to tackle trade and investment barriers, because the benefits are felt broadly. This refers in particular to SMEs, that otherwise lack the resources to do business across the Pacific Ocean. The deputy secretary concluded

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with a bold proposal: to think strategically by concluding an FTA between the Pacific Alliance and ASEAN, rather than focusing on bilateral FTAs. A region-to-region FTA could have huge benefits under rules of origin, he said, and would allow companies in ASEAN and the Pacific Alliance to access global value chains. It could also be a stepping stone towards an Asia-Pacific FTA, he added. The ensuing discussion touched on the possibility that the Pacific Alliance could one day become a body embracing all of Latin America, as the European Union – which started as the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951 – has done in Europe. There was also discussion around whether there could be functional integration between the Alliance on one hand and Mercosur and other regional bodies on the other. Minister Cárdenas stressed that the Pacific Alliance is open to all states who share the alliance’s outlook and values, but it was essential that they adhere to the standards already agreed and implemented. Celso Amorim argued that Mercosur had much better prospects of becoming the EU of Latin America than Mercosur; he also warned that it was important to avoid dividing Latin America between a pro-business, free-trading Pacific and a statist South Atlantic. This would put peace in jeopardy, he warned.

Concluding Keynote Address: Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez, President of Panama President Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez of Panama delivered the closing keynote address at the IISS Cartagena Dialogue. His inspiring speech focused on three intertwined themes: good governance, regional and international cooperation, and prosperity. The president urged fellow world leaders and civil servants not to look at politics as a ‘business’ but as a way of serving society and addressing issues affecting citizens. Strengthening democracy is, he argued, as crucial as dealing with the challenge of organised crime currently affecting Executive summary

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Juan Carlos Varela RodrĂguez, President of Panama

many countries in Latin America. State resources must be used to improve life, he said. Leaders ought to lead by example and prove that the state is capable of caring for its people and the youth in particular. In this way, it would be possible to break the foundation of criminal groups. These considerations should be at the core of interactions between the region and Asian countries, the president insisted. Priority should be given to human development and continued efforts to eliminate inequality and unemployment, and to ensure universal access to basic services and education. This will consolidate and unify society, while also bolstering peace and making the environment less attractive to transnational criminal networks. In this context, he lauded the Colombian peace process as a model worthy of emulation. Turning to the Pacific Alliance, President Varela noted that Panama is in the process of accession. He promised cooperation with other regional powers on all fronts and cited the many initiatives undertaken to contribute to national and regional prosperity. Panama is expected to see GDP growth of 6-7% annually from 2016, fired by government investments, and is positioning itself as a passenger and cargo hub.

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Initiatives include the expansion of the Panama Canal, the expansion of the international airport, and the development of the South Caribbean cruise route. Increasingly, the president noted, Asian countries and companies are investing and operating in Panama. China, the second largest user of the Panama Canal, has invested in construction. Singapore sponsored the building of a technical school. South Korean technology can be found in local hospitals and the country has invested in energy and mining. Japan is to finance and provide technical support to improvement works in the Panama City bay. These forms of cooperation no doubt foster prosperity but ought to be accompanied by information exchanges such as in the context of migration and border control, and by joint efforts to ensue that the international financial system is not exploited for criminal or terrorist purposes, the president said. He concluded his address by stressing the need to build trust among nations to foster cooperation against transnational challenges such as organised crime, natural disasters and pandemics. In this respect, the IISS Cartagena Dialogue was a welcome mechanism to promote the creation and strengthening of bilateral and international ties, he averred.

Executive summary

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THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES TRANS-PACIFIC SUMMIT, CARTAGENA, COLOMBIA 6–8 MARCH 2015

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CHAPTER 3

Reception

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

Reception

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CHAPTER 4

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CHAPTER 5

Press coverage; Selected IISS publications

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

Press coverage

Caracol Radio 6 March 2015

Santos instalará en Cartagena cumbre ‘IISS Dialogue’ de líderes mundiales Juan Manuel Santos Con una cena privada el presidente Juan Manuel Santos y el director del Instituto Internacional de Estudios Estratégicos (IISS por sus siglas en inglés), John Chipman, instalarán este 6 de marzo en Cartagena la tercera cumbre de este organismo, denominada ”Diálogo Cartagena, cumbre trans-pacífica”. Al evento asisten más de 40 líderes del mundo y también el presidente de Panamá, Juan Carlos Varela. Ejecutivos de prestigiosas empre-

sas y ministros como la canciller María Ángela Holguín, elministro de hacienda Mauricio Cárdenas y de defensa Juan Carlos Pinzón, compartirán experiencias con los asistentes sobre diálogos intergubernamentales y el crecimiento de las relaciones Asia - Latinoamérica. La cumbre se cumplirá hasta el domingo 8 de marzo, y tambíen habrá un espacio para hablar sobre la resolución de conflictos, en la que delegados de Indonesia y Filipinas compartirán sus experiencias. En dicho panel, también participará el jefe negociador del gobierno en La Habana, Humerto De La Calle. Así mismo, se buscará el fortalecimiento de la Alianza del Pacífico con el comercio asiático. ©2015 Caracol Radio Reprinted with permission

Press coverage

El Universal 6 March 2015

Política y comercio transpacífico, eje central del ‘Diálogo de Cartagena’ Académicos, políticos y empresarios de todo el mundo se reúnen desde hoy en la ciudad para asistir al Diálogo de Cartagena, un evento en el que se discutirán temas relacionados con la defensa, seguridad y economía. El Diálogo de Cartagena, que se realiza en el hotel Hilton hasta el próximo 8 de marzo, es una iniciativa del Instituto Internacional de Estudios Estratégicos, IISS (por sus siglas en inglés), en la que diversos países refuerzan sus relaciones en temas económicos y de seguridad. En el Diálogo de Cartagena, al que asistirán delegaciones de 30 países de los cinco continentes, tomarán parte líderes políticos, empresarios y altos funcionarios de países como Corea, Japón, Filipinas, Indonesia, China, Panamá, Chile, Perú y Colombia, entre otros. El evento tendrá como eje central las relaciones entre los países aliados del Asia–Pacífico y le dará un especial énfasis a los enlaces crecientes entre los dos lados de este océano, fomentando el fortalecimiento de redes políticas, diplomáticas, económicas, comerciales y los acuerdos entre naciones sobre defensa y seguridad. El Diálogo de Cartagena estará encabezado por el presidente Juan

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

Manuel Santos, quien será acompañado por los ministro de Defensa, Juan Carlos Pinzón, de Hacienda, Mauricio Cárdenas Santamaría, la ministra de Comercio, Industria y Turismo, Cecilia Álvarez-Correa y la canciller, María Ángela Holguín. ©2015 El Universal Reprinted with permission

US Department of State Official Blog 6 March 2015

The US and the Pacific Alliance: Partners for Prosperity David Thorne Secretary Kerry entrusted me with the mission of promoting a vision of economic diplomacy: a Shared Prosperity Agenda. The premise of the agenda is that security, stability, and prosperity are inexorably intertwined. You can’t have prosperity without stability and security, and there is no sustainable stability without prosperity. A cooperative and constructive regional arrangement like the Pacific Alliance is an effective way to advance peace and stability – and prosperity for all. It is with this mission in mind that I am in the historic port of Cartagena, Colombia through March 8th for a conference sponsored by the prestigious Institute for International Strategic Studies (IISS) regarding the Pacific Alliance trade bloc, and the poten-

tial for further economic integration between Latin America and the AsiaPacific. Formed in 2011, the Pacific Alliance is composed of four of our southern neighbors: Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. The four countries possess a combined population of over 214 million, 38 percent of Latin America’s GDP, 50 percent of the region’s exports, and 36 percent of foreign direct investment. They also possess a geographic position along the Pacific Rim and as global economic activity has shifted toward Asia, the advantages of their location have become obvious. The four alliance countries are currently consolidating an ambitious agenda, including signing a plurilateral free trade agreement, eliminating visa requirements, instituting educational exchange and scholarship programs, and integrating capital markets. The existence of a group of countries in Latin America dedicated to free trade and a liberal approach to markets is interesting and will help the debate in the region as a whole. The United States is one of thirtyfour countries with “observer” status to the Pacific Alliance. The Alliance has expressed interest in cooperation with observers and the United States responded has proposed cooperation in trade facilitation, travel facilitation, small business, entrepreneurship and exchanges between research institutions. Last month I visited Fort Worth, Texas, to make closing remarks at the US government’s first official engagement with the Pacific Alliance. Under

the U.S. government-sponsored La Idea program, entrepreneurs from all four countries participated in two weeks of engagement with U.S. investors at three business incubators, one of which was in Fort Worth. I enjoyed mixing with the attendees, several of whom told me that they were already making deals with U.S. companies they had met through the program. They also told me that in Fort Worth they had made excellent contacts among the other Pacific Alliance participants from other countries where they had not known anyone before. In small ways like this we not only build contacts for our own business people, but we encourage constructive ventures like the Pacific Alliance to increase cooperation. This weekend’s Cartagena Conf erence includes keynote remarks from Colombian President Santos and minister-level representation from all four Pacific Alliance countries. The event includes a mix of government officials from the Pacific Alliance and some of its thirty-four observer countries business representatives, and non-governmental trade and investment analysts. I hope that the La Idea incubator program and my participation in the IISS Cartagena Dialogue are just the first of many efforts by the United States to generate active practical cooperation between the United States and this dynamic regional bloc. Congratulations to the Pacific Alliance on their progress and best wishes as they work to further integrate trade and positive engagement between Asia and the Americas.

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AFP 7 March 2015

Santos inaugura en Colombia diálogo entre países del Pacífico El presidente colombiano Juan Manuel Santos inauguró este viernes en la ciudad caribeña de Cartagena (norte) un diálogo entre los países de la cuenca del Pacífico, en el que se tocarán temas de seguridad, comercio y cooperación. El llamado “Diálogo de Cartagena”, que reúne a decenas de líderes, empresarios y estrategas de casi 30 países del área del Pacífico, se desarrollará hasta el próximo domingo en esta ciudad del Caribe colombiano. “Este diálogo está llamado a tener una gran importancia para la integración y la cooperación entre las dos orillas del mayor cuerpo de agua del mundo, el océano Pacífico”, dijo Santos en su discurso de apertura este viernes por la noche. “La agenda de trabajo de esta cumbre pasa por temas estratégicos como la seguridad y la defensa, pero incluye otros temas muy importantes como el comercio, la cooperación y el bienestar social”, añadió el presidente colombiano. El encuentro es organizado por el Instituto Internacional para Estudios Estratégicos (International Institute for

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

Strategic Studies, IISS) y el ministerio de Defensa de Colombia. Según Santos, Colombia fue escogida como sede de esta cumbre estratégica por sus avances en el proceso de paz con la guerrilla de las FARC, que se desarrolla desde 2012 en Cuba para poner fin a un conflicto armado de más de medio siglo, por su buen desarrollo económico y por los avances que ha registrado la Alianza del Pacífico. El presidente colombiano ha sido un impulsor del bloque regional de la Alianza del Pacífico, integrado también por Chile, México y Perú, y el cual tiene como principal misión aumentar el intercambio comercial con la región AsiaPacífico. “Queremos crecer juntos y progresar juntos, queremos forjar una humanidad en paz (...) sabemos que unidos los países del Asia-Pacífico con los países de América-Pacífico tenemos la posibilidad de hacer la diferencia”, añadió Santos. El sábado, en el marco del encuentro se realizará una plenaria de cancilleres de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico con representantes del IISS, además de otra reunión centrada en la “Resolución de Conflictos y reconstrucción de sociedades”. Mientras que el domingo, el cierre de la cita estará a cargo del presidente panameño, Juan Carlos Varela. ©2015 AFP Reprinted with permission

El Espectador 7 March

La Alianza del Pacífico debe ayudar a enfrentar las crisis Edwin Bohórquez Aya El embajador David Thorne, uno de los participantes del Diálogo de Cartagena, la cumbre que reúne este fin de semana a empresarios y representantes de gobierno de más de 20 países, tiene una tarea clave en su gestión: promover la agenda de EE.UU. para la prosperidad compartida. Y eso, en otras palabras, significa que su misión es fortalecer los lazos entre Estados Unidos y los países de la Alianza del Pacífico y, a su vez, entre el bloque económico de los países del sudeste asiático. La idea es que todos se beneficien de un mayor crecimiento económico y compartan la prosperidad que éste genera. El Espectador habló con él y esto opinó sobre la integración regional. ¿Qué significado comercial tiene la Alianza del Pacífico para EE.UU.? La participación económica es el núcleo de la prosperidad. Para poder mantenernos competitivos, debemos trabajar juntos para convertir a las Américas en una plataforma integrada y compartida para el éxito global. La Alianza del Pacífico es un ejemplo de este sentimiento. Con un mercado de 215 millones de personas, lo que representa el 38% de la producción económica de América Latina y el 50% de sus expor-

taciones, la Alianza ofrece una visión de una Latinoamérica abierta, integrada y competitiva en el mundo. ¿Qué tipo de relaciones comerciales se tiene actualmente con cada uno de los integrantes de dicha Alianza? (TLC o acuerdos de otro tipo). Desde hace tiempo hemos tenido la visión de expandir los beneficios de un comercio más abierto en todo el hemisferio, incluyendo el crecimiento económico, la creación de empleos y la innovación. Esa sigue siendo nuestra visión. De acuerdo con esto, los miembros de la Alianza del Pacífico son socios claves de Estados Unidos en la región. EE.UU. tiene tratados de libre comercio con cada miembro de la Alianza del Pacífico. Es evidente que hemos compartido una visión para el desarrollo de la economía global y ya estamos trabajando juntos de muchas maneras. El TLC entre Estados Unidos y Colombia es quizás el mejor ejemplo de cómo las relaciones se han expandido más allá de la atención a la seguridad y a la cooperación en la lucha contra el narcotráfico. El acuerdo ha beneficiado a ambos países, y esto ha aumentado el comercio y ha generado relaciones de negocio más estrechas. En los primeros 20 meses del acuerdo, por ejemplo, más de 1.500 empresas colombianas exportaron por primera vez a EE.UU. La caída en el precio de los ‘commodities’ ha afectado economías como la colombiana. ¿Esta alianza logrará reemplazar ese déficit de ingresos? La Alianza del Pacífico está haciendo un progreso significativo hacia la integración económica y una mayor

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competitividad, y esto debe ayudar para enfrentar las crisis económicas externas. Los gobiernos miembros ya firmaron un acuerdo de libre comercio plurilateral, eliminaron los requisitos de visado para sus ciudadanos, crearon programas de intercambio y becas educativas e integraron sus mercados de capitales. La economía mundial está cambiando. Los países ya no producen productos individuales, sino más bien componentes de productos. Las iniciativas políticas de la Alianza del Pacífico, incluyendo la creación de normas comunes de origen, los marcos regulatorios armonizados y la mejora de los servicios de aduana están bien orientadas para ser eslabones importantes de esas cadenas de valor. ¿Cómo ven a la AP con una Colombia en paz, en posconflicto? Estados Unidos es un partidario incondicional del proceso de paz en Colombia. Como señaló el presidente Obama durante su reunión con el presidente Santos el año pasado, saludamos los “esfuerzos audaces y valientes de Colombia para lograr una paz duradera y justa en sus negociaciones con las Farc. Estas negociaciones son una señal para la gente de Colombia de que es posible dar rienda suelta a su enorme potencial si podemos superar este conflicto”. ¿Cuál es el futuro del mercado petrolero colombiano en Estados Unidos? Con una producción diaria de aproximadamente un millón de barriles, Colombia es un importante productor de petróleo en el hemisferio. También tiene oportunidades significativas para aumentar su desarrollo de los recursos,

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

y el petróleo es un producto global que puede ser comercializado en cualquier parte del mundo. Al lograr tener un ambiente de inversión apropiado con mejores prácticas de gobernabilidad responsable, el país ha podido seguir viendo los beneficios del desarrollo de recursos. Estamos trabajando con nuestros socios colombianos para concentrarnos exactamente en estas áreas. A través de nuestra Iniciativa de Gobernabilidad y Capacidad Energética (Energy Governance and Capacity Initiative) y de nuestros programas de Participación Técnica de Gases No-convencionales (Unconventional Gas Technical Engagement), dirigidos por la Oficina de Energía del Departamento de Estado, nos estamos asociando con el Gobierno de Colombia para compartir las mejores prácticas. Como un ejemplo de nuestro seguimiento, para ayudar a expandir las opciones de energía de Colombia, el verano pasado recibimos en Washington y Nueva Orleans a una delegación de reguladores de petróleo en alta mar de Colombia, que se reunió con reguladores y responsables de estas políticas en Estados Unidos y visitó una plataforma petrolera en el Golfo de México. También estamos cooperando en otros campos de la energía, incluyendo la energía limpia y la integración energética regional. ¿Cómo compara usted la Alianza del Pacífico frente a otras organizaciones como la Celac, la Unasur o el Alba? El gobierno de Estados Unidos es un observador oficial de la Alianza del

Caracol Radio

7 March 2015

8 March 2014

Mindefensa descarta cese el fuego bilateral mientras el enemigo esté armado

“Panamá no le exigirá visa a los colombianos”: presidente Varela

El ministro de defensa Juan Carlos Pinzón se refirió en Cartagena al cese bilateral fuego durante la cumbre “Diálogo Cartagena” que se realiza en La Heroica. Dijo que aún no ha tenido la posibilidad de hablar con los generales que estuvieron reunidos con las Farc en La Habana, pero que nunca se ha cambiado la hoja de ruta, en el sentido que las operaciones militares seguirán mientras el enemigo esté alzado en armas. “Todo el tiempo seguiremos con las operaciones, aquí las fuerzas armadas siguen golpenado a las estructuras del narotráfico, minería ilegal, al grupo que esté en la actividad delincuencial que esté, y eso no lo van a dejar de hacer. Nuestras fuerzas armadas están para proteger y defender a los colombianos, en el escenario de hoy y en cualquiera que venga mañana”, dijo Pinzón. El ministro insistió en que todos quieren que la paz llegue por el camino de la razón, pero que mientras eso no se dé las fuerzas armadas tienen que continuar en su empeño de ‘derrotar a los delincuentes’. Pinzón asiste al III

El presidente de Panamá Juan Carlos Varela, aseguró en Cartagena al cierre de la III cumbre del IISS (Instituto internacional de estudios estratégicos) Diálogo Cartagena, que no se le exigirá visa a los colombianos, todo esto, como alivio de las tensiones que surgieron luego del anuncio del gobierno colombiano de declarar a Panamá como paraíso fiscal. “En sesis meses debemos tener un acuerdo que nos permita avanzar y consolidar metas en temas fiscales, así que no vamos a considerar la solicitud de visas para colombianos, ya que la idea es que los buenos ciudadanos de ambos países viajen que crezca el turismo colombiano en Panamá”, dijo Varela al término de su discurso. Igualmente Varela respaldó nuevamente el proceso de paz y manifestó su complacencia por el acuerdo de desminado al que se llegó con las Farc. También se refirió a la posible asistencia deCuba a la Cumbre de las Américas que se realizará en su país en abril, aseguró que en próximos días habrán

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EFE 9 March 2015

Latin America and Asia herald new trans-pacific era Jaime Ortega Carrascal Cartagena Colombia, Mar 9 (EFE).- The Cartagena Dialogue has challenged Pacific Rim countries to launch a new era in trade relations, integration and cooperation. Panamanian President Juan Carlos Varela Sunday closed the three day long discussion of trans-pacific integration between authorities, businessmen and academics representing Latin America’s Pacific Alliance states and others from states throughout the Asia-Pacific region. The Pacific Alliance, an integration mechanism focused on the free circulation of goods, services, capital and persons amongst member states, comprises Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Panama, one of the 32 observer states, aspires to become a full time member. In the Dialogue representatives from more than 20 countries discussed potential links the Pacific Alliance. Colombian Minister of Finance and Public Credit Mauricio Cadenas said

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

that the next important item on the Alliance’s agenda is relations with the Asia Pacific. He added that in late March he will visit South Korea, with which Colombia has a free trade agreement, and Japan, to negotiate an agreement of economic association. In the final session, dedicated to the Agenda of Trans-Pacific Cooperation, former Indonesian Foreign Affairs Minister Marty Natalegawa said that the combined efforts of the states involved had the potential to significantly impact global development. Natalegawa noted scope for economic, political and security cooperation and pointed to a need for concrete actions to realise the potential. The Indonesian delegate emphasized that institutional and physical connectivity is a priority issue for trans-pacific dialogue. Although the Dialogue was a strategy meeting without decision-making power, participants stressed the importance of a channel for discussing the possibilities that connectivity implies for both regions. The Dialogue tested the strength of the trans-pacific idea, and invited Latin American and Asian countries to play a greater strategic role in each other’s futures, said Director-General and Chief Executive of the International Institute for Strategic Studies John Chipman. ©2015 EFE Reprinted with permission

Xinhua News Agency 8 March 2015

Presidente de Panamá reafirma apoyo a Alianza del Pacífico El presidente de Panamá, Juan Carlos Varela, aseguró hoy que su nación continuará acompañando y apoyando la Alianza del Pacífico como país observador de ese bloque que está integrado por Colombia, Chile, Perú y México. El mandatario expresó, en la sesión de clausura del Diálogo de CartagenaCumbre Transpacífico, su complacencia de ver que “esta Alianza ha ido más allá de ser un foro comercial entre países que comparten un Océano para convertirse en un mecanismo efectivo de integración y cooperación entre naciones que, comparten valores democráticos y estabilidad política, a favor del libre comercio y la movilidad de bienes, servicios, capitales y personas”. La sesión de la cumbre Transpacífica se realizó en la ciudad caribeña de Cartagena de Indias (norte), donde también asistieron el secretario de Relaciones Exteriores de México, José Antonio Meade; y de los viceministros de Relaciones Exteriores de Perú y Chile, Claudio de la Puente y Edgardo Riveros, respectivamente. Varela aprovechó su discurso para mencionar que, con la conectividad área, las naciones son vulnerables para que ingresen organizaciones transaccionales criminales y terroristas.

“Los gobiernos tenemos que redoblar esfuerzos para seguir fortaleciendo la coordinación inter-agencial entre los estamentos de seguridad tanto a nivel nacional como en el ámbito de nuestras relaciones bilaterales, para ser más efectivos en la lucha contra la delincuencia local y el crimen organizado”, precisó. El jefe de Estado pidió a las naciones intercambiar información en línea de las bases de datos de personas con antecedentes criminales y de esa forma hacerle frente al crimen organizado. La Alianza Pacífico fue establecida formalmente el 6 de junio de 2012 y, según el gobierno colombiano, “busca construir, de manera participativa y consensuada, un área de integración profunda para avanzar progresivamente hacia la libre circulación de bienes, servicios, capitales y personas, así como impulsar un mayor crecimiento, desarrollo y competitividad de las economías de los países que la integran”. ©2015 Xinhua News Agency Reprinted with permission

The Straits Times 13 March 2015

Revive pan-Pacific trade between Asia and Latin America William Choong As Mark Twain once said, history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. About 450 years ago, the galleon trade between Acapulco in Mexico and

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Manila started, and lasted more than 250 years. Trans-shipment trade via the Philippines flourished, as New World silver from Latin America was traded for porcelain, lacquerware and manufactured goods from China. Between 1500 to 1870, China was the world’s biggest economy. Today, China is on track to regain that status, at least in purchasing power parity terms. “I think that re-establishing the galleon trade for the 21st century between Latin America through the Pacific Alliance and Asia really makes sense,” Philippine Secretary of Finance Cesar Purisima told 200 delegates at the inaugural Cartagena Dialogue: The Trans-Pacific Summit, held at the eponymous port city in Colombia last weekend. The dialogue, which discussed geo-economic and security issues that span the Pacific, was organised by the International Institute of Strategic Studies. Indeed, some major trends already connect the Pacific Alliance - a grouping comprising Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru - with their Asian counterparts. Until the creation of the alliance in 2011, its members were surrounded by two insular blocs: the Common Market of the South (Mercosur), which then consisted of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay; and the Venezuela-led Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA). Like Asean, the Pacific Alliance has witnessed the protracted delay in the World Trade Organisation’s Doha Round. Thus, it has sought to expand

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

foreign trade through smaller-scale free trade agreements (FTAs). Today, the alliance ranks as the world’s eighth- biggest economy, with average growth of about 4 per cent. Its exports constitute half the exports of the region and it accounts for 40 per cent of foreign direct investment (FDI). Pacific Alliance governments are making baby steps to engage countries on the other side of the Pacific. Colombia has opened an embassy in Thailand and consulates in Auckland and Shanghai, and has started to share embassies with other alliance members in Singapore and Vietnam. Bogota stands at the front of the queue to join the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) grouping, and wants to join the TransPacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-nation FTA that would include other alliance members as well as the United States and Singapore. Peru, which is a member of Apec and the TPP, has wrapped up FTAs with China, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. Asian governments have not been slack either. In January, China hosted a Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) meeting. CELAC comprises all South American states, Mexico and several Caribbean states. China’s plan is to pump US$250 billion (S$347 billion) in investment into the region and double trade volume to US$500 billion in the next 10 years. South Korea has signed FTAs with Chile, Peru and Colombia and plans to restart FTA talks with Mexico. Japan, which has FTAs with the same

three Pacific Alliance countries, is now engaged in FTA negotiations with Colombia. And Singapore’s role has been significant. The only Asean member to have observer status at Pacific Alliance meetings, it has signed FTAs with Chile and Peru and is part of the TPP, together with Mexico. The Republic has FTAs with Costa Rica and Panama, two countries that could soon join the alliance. Given Singapore’s global orientation, it was not surprising that delegates from Singapore pushed for an AseanPacific Alliance FTA. The logic is straightforward: while the TPP has been mired in difficult negotiations, a smaller Asean-Pacific FTA would be the faster track to reach the Free Trade Area of the Pacific - a lofty goal of the 21-member Apec. An Asean-Pacific Alliance FTA would enable both regions to harmonise trade, boost trans-Pacific FDI and leverage on comparative advantages, said Mr Omar Lodhi, the Singapore-based regional head of East Asia with Abraaj, an investment group with interests in emerging markets. “It might be heresy to suggest it, but an Asean-Pacific Alliance FTA would be concluded more easily than the TPP,” said Mr Barry Desker, distinguished fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and a former chief executive officer of the Singapore Trade Development Board. There are obstacles, including concerns about the high levels of violence in Latin America and lack of logistical infrastructure, as well as grouses about

the 40-hour flight time from South-east Asia to Cartagena. More importantly, Asean - which is at the centre of multilateral bodies such as the Asean Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit - is suffering from “institutional indigestion”, said Dr Marty Natalegawa, a former foreign minister of Indonesia. The obstacles are not insurmountable. Both Asean and the Pacific Alliance are seeing the same geopolitical shifts in their respective regions, where countries benefit simultaneously from China’s economic growth and security provided by the US. In the end, the delay in the WTO’s Doha Round should compel governments to go for quicker solutions such as the proposed AseanPacific Alliance FTA. Dr Marty argues that countries on either side of the Pacific must increase their connectivity, and “put our minds to having some kind of basic norms and principles of how we govern our relationship that can be good not only for today but for years and decades to come”. ©2015 The Straits Times Reprinted with permission

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The Economist 14 March

How deep is their love?; Bello The Pacific Alliance is a great brand in search of a shared product In the verbose annals of Latin American integration, the declaration of Lima of April 2011 stands out for its rare combination of brevity and impact. In less than three pages, the presidents of Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru agreed to launch the Pacific Alliance. Its aims were to promote “deep integration” of economies through the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour, and to strengthen ties with the world, and the Asia-Pacific region in particular. The four members have moved swiftly. They signed an agreement in 2013 to abolish tariffs on 92% of merchandise trade, with the remainder to be freed by 2020. They have scrapped tourist visa requirements for each others’ citizens, and have opened some shared embassies abroad. The stockmarkets of Chile, Colombia and Peru agreed to join up in a regional bourse called MILA, which Mexico’s exchange joined in January. In its short life, the Pacific Alliance has made quite a splash, attracting as observers 34 countries spanning six continents. This month at the Cartagena Dialogue, a conference in that city organised by Colombia’s government and

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

the International Institute of Strategic Studies, a London-based think-tank, several Asian officials urged the Alliance to admit their countries as full members. Two things have piqued the interest of outsiders. The first is that member governments share a commitment to free markets, free trade and democracy. That distinguishes them from more state-led, protectionist and in some cases authoritarian governments of the Mercosur trade group, which includes Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela. And while these three are all in recession or close to it, the alliance’s economies are still growing, albeit more slowly than in the past. The alliance’s second attraction is its scale. It comprises 200m people, 35% of Latin America’s GDP and half its exports. It is a second Brazil, its boosters have often pointed out. Except that it isn’t. The reality of the Pacific Alliance is that its members, separated by vast distances and poor communications, have few economic links. Intra-group trade is a tiny--and slightly falling--percentage of its members’ total commerce (see chart). If there is a Latin American equivalent of the East Asian manufacturing supply chain, it lies not within the alliance but in Mexico’s integration with the United States. Even Mercosur’s intra-block trade is more important as a share of the group’s total than that of the alliance (though it too is falling). And to the chagrin of investors in the four countries, MILA has been hobbled by a lack of progress in harmonising rules.

Optimists say that the alliance is only now coming into its own. “We are discovering each other,” says José Antonio Meade, Mexico’s foreign minister, pointing to a rise in business deals and in tourism among the four countries. Mauricio Cárdenas, Colombia’s finance minister, sees opportunities for his farmers and manufacturers now that the commodity boom is over and the currency is weaker. The four members could still gain from joint work on market intelligence and on trade facilitation (cutting red tape, for example). But the alliance’s greatest potential may lie in attracting foreign investment, particularly from Asia, where all four have trade agreements. In Cartagena, officials from Japan, South Korea, the ASEAN countries and Australia were especially enthusiastic about closer links--in some cases seeing in the alliance a way to compete with China’s growing influence in Latin America. The Pacific Alliance seems almost taken aback by its own diplomatic success. Its leaders say that they need to work out what they want from, and can offer to, observer countries. An assertion of its shared political values would sharpen the group’s brand identity, helping to attract investment. Of this, the only sign so far is a joint policy on climate change. The alliance is a retort to Mercosur, but a tacit one. On this subject, the four don’t think alike. Chile’s centre-left government feels affinity with Brazil, to which the country exports more than to its fellow alliance members combined.

It inspired recent meetings between the two blocks to explore “convergence in diversity”, in the awkward Chilean formulation. Brazilian officials point out that their country’s trade with Chile, Colombia and Peru will be almost fully free by 2019. “The visions are not totally contradictory, they can be complementary,” argues Celso Amorim, who has been Brazil’s foreign minister and defence minister. Indeed so. But that may cease to be the case if the Pacific Alliance backs its promising brand by strengthening its political identity. ©2015 The Economist Reprinted with permission

Valor Economico 16 March 2015

O Brasil no “novo normal” Sergo Leo Não se cantam músicas de Claudia Leitte em festa de Ivete Sangalo, mas, há poucos dias, o Brasil não ficou de for a do “Cartagena Dialogue”, evento de um dos mais importantes centros de estudos mundiais, que se dedicou a discutir a relação entre os países da Ásia e a chamada Aliança do Pacífico, a associação entre México, Colômbia, Peru e Chile. “O Brasil é o elefante na sala; se ele não se integrar, será como uma União Europeia sem Alemanha”, comentou o economista-chefe do Banco

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Interamericano de Desenvolvimento, Juan José Ruiz, ao falar sobre as perspectivas da Aliança do Pacífico. A ausência do paquiderme brasileiro não impede, porém, que os países sul-americanos a oeste do continente pareçam cada vez mais dispostos a marginalizar as discussões sobre integração continental e sintonizar-se com os mercados mais dinâmicos fora da região. América Latina deve ampliar exportações de serviços “Há 60 anos falamos em integração e não há um país latino-americano que tenha mais de 25% de comércio com algum vizinho”, notou Ruiz. Enquanto a integração continental segue mais robusta na retórica do que na realidade, a Ásia cresce de importância para toda a América Latina, atualmente alvo de uma ofensiva de charme do governo chinês, que busca diversificar seus investimentos. As implicações desse movimento não escaparam ao Instituto Internacional de Estudos Estratégicos (IISS), tradicional “think tank” sediado em Londres, cujo foco habitual são as questões de segurança e defesa internacionais. O IISS, há pouco mais de uma semana, mobilizou ministros, executivos e especialistas dos países da Aliança do Pacífico e de nações da Ásia no que chamou de Diálogo de Cartagena, que incluiu um debate animado sobre perspectivas econômicas da região. Essas perspectivas são ainda otimistas, apesar da ameaça da desaceleração global. O fato é que até o México, bem-sucedido em seu atrelamento à locomotiva industrial dos Estados Unidos, foi

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

obrigado a rever suas expectativas de crescimento no ano passado, para algo em torno de 2% - embora agências de classificação de risco prevejam uma recuperação robusta em 2015. Os países sul-americanos da Aliança do Pacífico também reduziram expectativas. Apesar da rede de acordos de livre comércio firmados nos últimos anos, seguem francamente dependentes de suas exportações de commodities, que representam mais de 80% das vendas ao exterior. Essa dependência do ciclo mundial dos preços de commodities torna-se particularmente delicada no cenário que o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) vem chamando de “novo normal”, de queda ou estagnação no crescimento econômico em todo o mundo. Zhu Min, vice-diretor-gerente do FMI e ex-vice-presidente do Banco da China, advertiu os participantes do seminário do IISS sobre a necessidade de mudar a estratégias de inserção nos mercados mundiais, para se adaptar a esse “novo normal” - ou “novo medíocre”, como preferiu a gerente-geral do FMI, Christine Lagarde. “O ‘novo normal’ significa que os fluxos de investimento (da Ásia para fora), hoje 50% concentrados em recursos naturais, vão mudar”, avisou. Em lugar de exportar commodities, por meio de grandes companhias, como hoje, os países da América Latina devem esforçar-se para aumentar suas exportações de serviços e de outros bens de maior valor agregado, por meio de empresas de menor porte, defende Zhu Min.

Grandes responsáveis pela demanda asiática por recursos naturais, os investimentos na economia chinesa, hoje por volta de 44% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), devem cair, nos próximos anos, a 34%, prevê Zhu Min. Para cada 1% de queda nesses investimentos, os grandes exportadores de commodities ao mercado chinês verão uma queda de 0,2% a 0,3% em seu PIB. “À medida que a Ásia se torna mais ‘leve’, cai a demanda de commodities, e precisamos gerenciar esse ‘soft landing’ na demanda’”, recomendou Zhu Min, em entrevista ao Valor, às margens do Diálogo de Cartagena. “Cerca de 34% das exportações da América Latina vão para a Ásia, grande parte de commodities”, lembra. Foi nesse contexto que os participantes do diálogo travado na cidade colombiana de Cartagena discutiram obstáculos ainda presentes para o comércio com a Ásia, mesmo entre os países sul-americanos voltados ao Pacífico. Burocracia, barreiras e custo de transporte são alguns dos obstáculos ainda não resolvidos nas discussões dos acordos de livre comércio firmados ou em negociação na região. Para Zhu Min, os países latino-americanos devem buscar oportunidades na crescente demanda por serviços que tende a vir da Ásia - como os serviços turísticos, demandados a cada ano por cem milhões de viajantes chineses; ou financeiros, em uma região cujos mercados de valores cada vez mais operam em sintonia com os mercados latinoamericanos. A criação de infraestrutura para pequenas e médias empresas, como plata-

formas on-line de comércio, melhoras na educação da mão de obra, apoio financeiro à expansão no comércio global, podem ser decisivos no ajuste a esse “novo normal” de menor apetite por produtos básicos, preconiza o executivo do FMI. O debate sobre integração sul-americana deve recuperar fôlego em breve no Brasil quando, segundo promete o Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica e Aplicada (Ipea), for divulgado estudo concluído há poucos dias sobre a matriz insumo-produto da América do Sul - uma avaliação das relações entre os setores produtores e fornecedores de toda a região. Seria conveniente que esse debate levasse em conta o cenário ressaltado pelo economista chinês, que exige novas estratégias de conquista do mercado global. ©2015 Valor Economico Reprinted with permission

Portafolio.co 19 March

La Alianza del Pacífico, fases de un proceso incipiente Martha Ardila Temas como conectividad física, institucional y personal resultan fundamentales, y en Cartagena se propuso una ‘autopista marítima de la seda’ para facilitar el comercio entre Asia y América Latina por el Pacífico. No obstante, en su

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inserción internacional, el interés de los cuatro países varía. El pasado 7 y 8 de marzo, tuvo lugar el Diálogo de Cartagena - La Cumbre Transpacífico, evento organizado por el Gobierno colombiano y el Instituto Internacional de Estudios Estratégicos. Desde su creación en el 2011, la Alianza del Pacífico atraviesa dos fases principales: la primera de conocimiento e interdependencia entre Colombia, Chile, México y Perú, que son sus miembros, y la segunda se orienta hacia la cooperación Transpacífico. Sus capacidades son visibles. No es solo en materia de extensión, población, recursos naturales, ciencia y tecnología, también la Alianza del Pacífico posee un PIB conjunto de 3 billones de dólares, equivalente al 41 por ciento del PIB de América Latina y el Caribe, lo cual la posiciona como la sexta economía a nivel mundial. Además, los otros países del área, y fuera de ella, la perciben con alta legitimidad y liderazgo, y muchos latinoamericanos, y de fuera de la región, también quisieran ser sus miembros. Cuenta con 32 naciones observadoras, algunas de ellas asiáticas, como Indonesia, que recientemente solicitó su adhesión como observador. Los une su ideología y un modelo de desarrollo económico y político similar, basado en el regionalismo abierto liberal, que hace parte de ese nuevo multilateralismo que adelanta Latinoamérica, y que incluye a los actores no gubernamentales, pero de la mano de una diplomacia presidencialista, arraigada en los cuatro Estados. Los logros en materia de una instituciona-

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

lidad flexible, basada en la rotación de las secretarías pro-témpore, muestran resultados que indican las ventajas de un liderazgo compartido. La cooperación es el tema transversal que conecta y articula las dos etapas. En la primera, de conocimiento e interdependencia, se avanza en la movilidad regional de diferentes actores por medio de la supresión de visas, y de becas para el intercambio estudiantil y académico en general, contabilizando, hasta hoy, 652 becas. A su vez, se comparten oficinas comerciales y embajadas entre los países miembros de la Alianza, contribuyendo a facilitar consensos y disminuir costos. Funcionan sedes diplomáticas compartidas en Ghana, Vietnam, Marruecos, Argelia, Azerbaiyán, Singapur y la Ocde. Pero no solo ello, sino que el requisito de tener tratados de libre comercio entre sus integrantes, para poder pertenecer a la Alianza, ha permitido mayor intercambio comercial y regional entre sus miembros. No obstante, al sector agrícola colombiano, a la SAC y Fedearroz, en particular, les preocupa el protocolo comercial suscrito en febrero del 2014, a través del cual se disminuye a cero el 92 por ciento de los aranceles industriales, mientras que el 8 por ciento restante se desmontará gradualmente en un plazo de máximo 17 años. Consideran que el actual déficit en la balanza comercial, desfavorable para Colombia con México, en más de 5.400 millones de dólares, podría empeorar. Se han creado grupos técnicos como el de cooperación, enfatizando en temas

como medioambiente y cambio climático, innovación, ciencia y tecnología y desarrollo social. Desde el 2015, México, al ejercer la presidencia protémpore, asume la coordinación de este grupo de trabajo. La segunda etapa de relacionamiento hacia el Pacífico (Cooperación TransPacífico), presenta diferentes velocidades. México, Chile y Perú se insertaron de manera más temprana –desde mediados de los 90 pertenecen a la Apec–, tienen grupos académicos de trayectoria sobre la región asiática y han desarrollado una infraestructura orientada hacia la vertiente del Pacífico. A mediados de los 60, el Colegio de México empezó a editar la revista Estudios de Asia y estudiantes chinos van a continuar su formación en este centro académico. La migración contribuye en este sentido. Temas como conectividad física, institucional y personal resultan fundamentales, y en Cartagena se propuso una ‘autopista marítima de la seda’ para facilitar el comercio entre Asia y Latinoamérica por el Pacífico. No obstante, en su inserción internacional, el interés de los cuatro países varía. A México le interesa realizar un soft balancing frente a Estados Unidos. Chile y Perú son naciones con una vertiente muy amplia hacia el Pacífico, la cual les ha llevado a desarrollar, al igual que México, una política marítima y regional. Potencias regionales asiáticas como China, India, Japón, han mostrado gran interés en estos países, así como en Brasil, Venezuela y Colombia, por las commodities que pueden brindar. De todas maneras, deberá buscarse que la inserción en Asia vaya más allá

de lo económico y se realice por medio de esta Alianza. Y en este sentido, son muchos los desafíos para estas fases que hacen parte de un proceso aún incipiente. ©2015 Portafolio.co Reprinted with permission

Revista Summa 19 March 2015

China Representa El 25% del Comercio Con Latinoamérica En el Diálogo de Cartagena, representantes del FMI y el BID analizan la importancia del gigante asiático en la región durante la última década El intercambio comercial entre Latino américa y Asia creció con fuerza en los últimos años y en la actualidad representa el 25% del total de la región, dijo Luis Alberto Moreno, presidente del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID). “El comercio de América Latina con Asia pasó de ser el 8% en 2000 al 25% en 2014, pero ese comercio no está repartido”, manifestó Moreno en un debate del Diálogo de Cartagena que analiza las relaciones entre los países de ambos lados de la cuenca del Pacífico. El funcionario señaló que gran parte de ese intercambio de bienes y servicios es absorbido por China, principal socio comercial de Brasil y con gran

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peso en otras naciones de la región, pero agregó que también hay más mercados grandes, como Japón o Corea del Sur, a los cuales hay que mirar. “Desde el punto de vista global, Latinoamérica y Asia ya son potencias económicas, están integradas en cuanto al comercio y la transferencia de información”, expresó Min Zhu, subdirector gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). El representante añadió que el comercio entre América Latina y Asia en los últimos 14 años aumentó de US$20 mil a US$200,000 millones. “Los lazos internacionales y el comercio han ido creciendo y este continente (Latinoamérica) está integrado verticalmente con la cadena de abastecimiento de Asia”, manifestó. Los participantes subrayaron la necesidad de invertir más en tecnología, desarrollo social y mejoras en seguridad para aumentar la competitividad de las economías de Latinoamérica y mantener el ritmo de crecimiento del comercio con Asia. El evento es organizado por el Instituto Internacional de Estudios Estratégicos (IISS). ©2015 Revista Summa Reprinted with permission Press Coverage in advance of the Dialogue

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

Blu Radio 21 February 2015

Cartagena, la puerta de entrada de Asia a Latinoamérica Los días 6, 7 y 8 de marzo se llevará a cabo en Cartagena de Indias un trascendental encuentro entre los países que conforman la Alianza del Pacífico (Chile, Colombia, México y Perú) y empresarios y diplomáticos de los países asiáticos, bajo la coordinación del Instituto Internacional de Estudios Estratégicos, A propósito, el director general del Instituto Internacional de Estudios Estratégicos, John Chipman, explicó en diálogo con El Radar de Blu Radiocómo será el evento. “La idea es empezar una conversación traspacífico para ver cuáles son los enlaces que se podrían hacer entre América Latina y Asia”, manifestó. Además, Chipman dijo que la iniciativa comenzó con la intensión de generar un diálogo “de los dos lados del Pacífico y empezarlo en Cartagena, Colombia, un país que está muy abierto al mundo ahora, que por casualidad es el único de los cuatro países de la Alianza del Pacífico (Chile, Colombia, México y Perú) miembro de la Opep y no participa formalmente en el tratado transpacífico pero sí tiene grandes intereses en Asia”. Según el director del IISS (por sus siglas en inglés), se escogió a Colombia por los buenos enlaces con el Gobierno de Juan Manuel Santos, quien estará

presente en el evento junto con altos funcionarios como la canciller María Ángela Holguín. También asistirán ministros de Asuntos Exteriores de Perú, México, el viceministro de Chile e importantes líderes de Asia como Filipinas y Corea, entre otros. En materia empresarial, a Cartagena llegarán varios magnates asiáticos, entre ellos el jefe de Mitsubishi. ©2015 Blu Radio Reprinted with permission

El Tiempo 22 February 2015

Diálogo desde las dos orillas del Pacífico Daniela Forero Sánchez Cuarenta líderes de distintos países, especialmente de la cuenca del Pacífico, entre ellos los presidentes de Colombia y Panamá, están a punto de reunirse en Cartagena al final de la primera semana de marzo. Los mandatarios, junto a varios ministros, altos ejecutivos e intelectuales estarán en el Diálogo de Cartagena, la Cumbre Trans-Pacífico, del 6 al 8 de marzo. La iniciativa ha sido lanzada gracias a una alianza entre el Instituto Internacional de Estudios Estratégicos (IISS), con sede en Londres, y el Gobierno colombiano, luego de que el IISS decidió unirse al proceso de dialogo intergubernamental en Latinoamérica.

Con el encuentro se busca reunir a importantes voces de la Alianza del Pacífico (Colombia, México, Perú y Chile) para que discutan sobre las relaciones con los países del pacífico asiático, cuando estos últimos han comenzado a mirar hacia Latinoamérica. Junto a los temas comerciales, habrá una sesión relacionada con la resolución de conflictos en la que se compararán experiencias latinoamericanas con las asiáticas, como Indonesia y Filipinas. El Director General del IISS, John Chipman, explicó la importancia estratégica de este diálogo. ¿Cuáles son las expectativas que tienen de este encuentro en Cartagena? Buscamos obtener una idea clara de qué podemos esperar en condiciones de mayor cooperación transpacífica, en términos de comercio, inversión y negocios. Y será interesante ver qué posición asumen los representantes de las naciones asiáticas respecto a la Alianza del Pacífico. Nuestra idea es atraer algunos de los líderes claves de Asia, y que ellos se interesen y estén más comprometidos, pensando cómo la Alianza del Pacífico puede ser parte de las políticas económicas internacionales y pueda ser una alianza multilateral. ¿Qué deben esperar los integrantes de la Alianza del Pacífico? Ellos han avanzado bastante estos últimos años y ahora van hacia el segundo escalón, llevando la cooperación entre esos cuatros países hacia una integración económica mucho más fuerte. Pero, al mismo tiempo, es importante que se sitúen, miren cuál es su po-

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sición y sus relaciones con el otro lado del Pacífico. Entre tanto, grandes economías negocian el Acuerdo Transpacífico (TPP). Si llegan a un acuerdo, ¿le conviene a Colombia adherir? Los diálogos del TPP, en los que Colombia no participa, van muy bien y es probable que a finales de este año el acuerdo sea ratificado por el Congreso de Estados Unidos. Para Colombia, una pregunta importante sería: ¿Cómo podría lograr adherir o qué tan conveniente sería hacerlo? No estoy diciendo que sea bueno o malo. Es algo que el país debe decidir por sí mismo. Y probablemente sea algo que deba debatir con Estados Unidos y otras naciones para decidir cómo los puede beneficiar, teniendo en cuenta que los otros tres países de la Alianza del Pacifico ya son parte de ese acuerdo. ¿Por qué es tan importante profundizar las relaciones entre las naciones de los dos lados del Pacífico? Hay varias naciones asiáticas que están muy interesadas en la Alianza del Pacífico. Por ejemplo, China está invirtiendo en Perú y México. Japón y Corea son otros países que se han interesado bastante, y la idea es mirar cómo vamos a traer más inversión asiática a estos países que integran la Alianza del Pacifico; mirar cómo se puede pasar a una inversión más grande, digamos, en términos de infraestructura que genere un impacto a mayor escala en estas naciones. ¿Le convendría a Colombia un tratado de libre comercio con China? Me parece difícil dar una opinión al respecto. Colombia es un país que se

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

hace cada día más abierto al comercio internacional. Esta cuestión de cómo se integra en un diálogo con los países de Asia y el Pacífico por la vía de acuerdos o tratados es importante, y creo que durante el Diálogo de Cartagena vamos a oír de los ministros un poco cómo ellos conciben esta posible integración económica intensa y fuerte. Después de esta reunión en Cartagena, creo que tendremos una idea más realista de lo que podemos esperar de una integración transpacífica e iniciaremos un diálogo más sólido entre los dos lados del Pacífico. ©2015 El Tiempo Reprinted with permission

El Espectador 1 March 2015

Seguridad, el desafío global Élber Gutiérrez Roa Una de las distorsiones más frecuentes cuando se abordan los debates sobre asuntos de seguridad, es la tendencia a considerarlos exclusivamente a partir de las estadísticas sobre delincuencia y la acción de las fuerzas estatales para conjurar su arremetida en una región determinada. Donde más robos o asesinatos hay es donde están las dificultades de seguridad, y cuando el índice de aquellos delitos tiende a cero es porque el problema está resuelto. Punto. En realidad, el asunto no es tan simple, y prueba de ello son los frecuentes desacuerdos entre autoridades

policiales y mandatarios locales cuando aparece un nuevo informe sobre la materia. Cada vez hay más variables para medir la seguridad, datos más completos, herramientas estadísticas más sofisticadas y hasta desarrollos conceptuales desde las más distintas orillas que invitan a la reflexión. Seguridad nacional, seguridad ciudadana, seguridad alimentaria y muchas otras son expresiones utilizadas con frecuencia para alertar sobre el camino que una ciudad o país deben seguir. Y no es que sean contradictorias. De hecho, existe consenso en que la seguridad es la condición insoslayable para que una persona pueda ejercer sus derechos. Hablar de seguridad es referirse al problema del ladrón de la calle, sí, pero también lo es referirse a los desafíos medioambientales, el desarme nuclear o los procesos de paz. Esa mirada integral es la que ha llevado a que el Instituto Internacional de Estudios Estratégicos (IISS, por sus siglas en inglés) se convierta en la autoridad líder en la promoción de políticas para fomentar la paz y la seguridad globales. Nacido en 1958 en el Reino Unido, el IISS realiza cumbres regionales para debatir acerca de las amenazas de seguridad: Shangri-la (Singapur), en Asia; Manama (Baréin), para el Oriente Medio ampliado, y el Diálogo de Cartagena, cuyo encuentro será del 6 al 8 de marzo, en la Heroica. El presidente del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, Luis Alberto Moreno; Min Zhu, subdirector del Fondo Monetario Internacional, y Chao Taeyul, viceministro de Asuntos

Internacionales de Corea, son algunos de los invitados internacionales al encuentro, que también contará con la presencia de los líderes de las multinacionales más grandes del mundo, primeras interesadas en el tema. El coorganizador del encuentro es el Ministerio de Defensa de Colombia. Y para que no quede duda del enfoque amplio en el abordaje de la seguridad ni de la sintonía entre el Ministerio de Defensa y los esfuerzos de paz Gobierno-Farc, uno de los oradores especiales del encuentro será el jefe negociador del Gobierno, Humberto de la Calle. Compartirá escenario en el foro “Resolución de conflictos y reconstrucción de sociedades”, en el que también estarán Dino Patti Djalal, exministro de Relaciones Exteriores de Indonesia, y Senen Bacani, miembro del Panel Gubernamental de Negociación de Paz de Filipinas. El tema del crimen organizado y la minería ilegal es uno de los que más atención despiertan entre las delegaciones de los gobiernos, mientras que a los empresarios les interesa también el de servicios financieros. A propósito, la importancia del foro, que será el encuentro multilateral más grande que se haya realizado en América Latina y, según la viceministra de Defensa, Diana Quintero Cuello, invita a la toma de decisiones coordinadas en políticas de seguridad y defensa y a la creación de escenarios propicios para entablar negocios en la región Asia-Pacífico. Este enfoque, que les da relevancia a los aspectos de negocios, ha hecho que el encuentro de Cartagena se conozca en

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El Espectador 1 March 2015

Colombia: puente entre Asia y A. Latina Diana Quintero Me refiero a un nuevo punto de encuentro entre líderes de países asiáticos, como Japón, Corea, Singapur, Filipinas e Indonesia, y de la región, como Chile, Perú, Panamá y México, que se reúnen por primera vez para entablar un diálogo estratégico sobre las tendencias globales en defensa, seguridad y economía. En el diálogo participan gobernantes, académicos y empresarios, generando un puente para unir a Asia con Latinoamérica, y también a Latinoamérica con los suyos. Una economía fuerte, la reducción de la pobreza y del desempleo, así como la posibilidad de poner fin al conflicto, hacen que Colombia se posicione como un referente regional y global. Sin duda, lo anterior ha sido posible por el sacrificio de nuestros soldados y policías, verdaderos arquitectos de la paz. No existe un país en paz que no cuente con unas Fuerzas Armadas fuertes y modernas. El fortalecimiento

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

de la Fuerza Pública es necesario para brindar confianza y seguridad. Sólo así se genera un ambiente propicio para la prosperidad y el desarrollo sostenible de una nación. En la última década, Colombia ha sido internacionalmente reconocida por sus avances en seguridad. Estos resultados se deben —principalmente— al aumento del pie de fuerza y la adquisición y modernización de equipos, los cuales han permitido más tecnología y mayor efectividad en la protección de los colombianos. Definitivamente, no hay mejor inversión que la que se hace en seguridad. De hecho, mientras el mundo debate cómo resolver conflictos de diversa índole, Colombia surge como un gran ejemplo en la búsqueda de soluciones negociadas. La confianza que se ha generado en el país y nuestro potencial como actor global hacen posible eventos como el Diálogo de Cartagena. Esta será una oportunidad para compartir nuestra historia de éxito en muchos frentes. Entre el 6 y el 8 de marzo, líderes globales, empresariales, políticos y académicos se reunirán para tener discusiones estratégicas donde Colombia resaltará como un actor clave en la lucha contra el crimen transnacional y la reducción de brechas sociales, tendiendo puentes que le permitan compartir su experiencia y capacidad con el resto del mundo. ©2015 El Espectador Reprinted with permission

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The Adelphi series www.iiss.org/publications/adelphi The Adelphi series is the Institute’s principal contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research. Eight books are published each year and are designed to provide rigorous analysis of strategic and defence topics that will prove useful to academics, researchers, politicians and diplomats, as well as foreign-affairs analysts, defence commentators and journalists.

Armed Conflict Survey 2015 www.iiss.org/publications/acs The Armed Conflict Survey (ACS) is a new annual publication that provides yearly data on fatalities, refugees and internally displaced people for all major armed conflicts, alongside in-depth analysis of their political, military and humanitarian dimensions. The first edition of the book covers the key developments and context of more than 40 conflicts, including those in Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Myanmar, Syria and Yemen. The ACS features essays by some of the world’s leading authorities on armed conflict, who write on subjects such as: • • • • •

the development of jihadism after 9/11; hybrid warfare; refugees and internally displaced people; criminality and conflict; the evolution of peacekeeping operations

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The authors discuss the principal thematic and crossregional trends that have emerged over the past year, complementing the granular approach to each conflict at the core of the book. The ACS also includes maps, infographics and multi-year data, as well as the highly regarded IISS Chart of Conflict. The book is edited by Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the IISS. The Armed Conflict Survey will be launched 20 May 2015. Its available for preorder, copies will be dispatched after the launch.

The Military Balance www.iiss.org/publications/military-balance The Military Balance is the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ annual assessment of the military capabilities and defence economics of 171 countries worldwide. It is an essential resource for those involved in security policymaking, analysis and research. As well as detailed information on inventories, the book contains region-byregion analysis of major military and economic trends affecting security policy and the trade in military equipment. ‘Amid continuing conflict and broadening insecurity, The Military Balance provides essential facts and analysis for decision-makers and for better informed public debate.’ Dr Robert M. Gates, former US Secretary of Defense and Director of Central Intelligence ‘Because military affairs are inevitably clouded in fog, the IISS Military Balance is an essential companion for those who seek to understand.’ Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, former UK Defence Secretary and SecretaryGeneral of NATO

Strategic Comments www.iiss.org/stratcom Strategic Comments is the Institute’s online source of analysis of international security and politico-military issues. Fifty articles are published per year. Strategic Comments briefing papers offer succinct, timely and cogent insights of consistent authority to

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its core readership of policymakers, journalists, business executives and foreignaffairs analysts. Since its foundation in 1995, Strategic Comments has harnessed the considerable expertise of the Institute’s research staff and members, as well as the broader strategic-studies community. ‘Strategic Comments fills an important niche in the pantheon of publications of the IISS. Foreign-affairs experts and business executives who rely on timely and accurate analyses of breaking international developments will find it invaluable.’ Dr Henry Kissinger ‘Crisp, relevant and informative.’ Richard Haass, President, Council on Foreign Relations ‘Strategic Comments offers the rarest but most valuable of qualities in our overloaded age – brevity and cogency.’ Jim Hoagland, Washington Post ‘Strategic Comments fills a major gap in coverage of strategic issues through up-todate and authoritative commentaries.’ Zbigniew Brzezinski, former US National Security Advisor

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The resurgence of major-power geopolitics was the striking feature of international affairs in the year to mid-2014. Russia and Europe competed for influence in Ukraine, where a revolution in support of closer integration with Europe was followed by Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and a pro-Russian insurgency in eastern regions. Tensions rose between China and Japan as the leaders of both countries stepped up their assertive nationalism. However, progress was made in nuclear negotiations between Iran and the world’s major powers. The year’s developments heralded a period of heightened strategic change that would sharpen the challenges facing the United States in maintaining global influence. Strategic Survey 2014: The Annual Review of World Affairs argues that changing patterns in international relations make it vital for the world’s businesses to carry out geopolitical due diligence. Strategic Survey 2014: The Annual Review of World Affairs analyses the events and themes of the year region by region. It includes essays on cybersecurity and privacy, on assessing drivers of strategic change, and on hybrid forms of insecurity in the developing world. The Strategic Geography section includes maps on the humanitarian disaster in Syria, France’s role in Africa and the Pacific Alliance trade bloc in Latin America. The book contains a chronology of key events around the world. According to Bronwen Maddox, Editor of Prospect magazine, Strategic Survey: The Annual Review of World Affairs ‘has become a landmark of the think tank landscape: a handbook for what to worry about for the coming year’.

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy www.iiss.org/publications/survival Survival, the bimonthly journal from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, is one of the world’s leading forums for analysis and debate of international and strategic affairs. With a diverse range of authors, eight to ten articles per issue, plus thoughtful reviews and review essays, Survival is scholarly in depth while vivid, well written and policy-relevant in approach. Shaped by its editors to be both timely and forward thinking, the journal encourages writers to challenge conventional wisdom and bring fresh, often controversial, perspectives to bear on the strategic issues of the moment. Survival features fully referenced articles that reflect serious scholarship without being overly academic in form. It stresses rigorous analysis and elegant expression to promote strategic dialogue of global scope, reflecting the international composition of its contributors and readership. It also features forums, exchanges and debates, shorter essays from a range of viewpoints, and authoritative review essays and reviews of new books on global politics and strategy from a team of illustrious contributing editors. 88

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

Survival is available for iPad. The free app lets you purchase new issues of the bimonthly journal to enjoy on your iPad, with additional graphics, audio and video. From your iPad, search in the App Store for ‘Survival for iPad’ or ‘IISS’, or visit http://bit.ly/19zybp8. The app is free, and comes with a sample download to demonstrate its features. Issues from the beginning of 2012 are available to buy. ‘In a world of complex security challenges, the need for serious, thoughtful analysis is greater than ever. Survival’s combination of elegant writing and rigorous scholarship from the world’s top experts makes it essential reading for both practitioners and academics.’ Sir Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies and Vice-Principal (Strategy and Development), King’s College London, UK

IISS publications

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015 Sponsors

IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

TRANS-PACIFIC SUMMIT, CARTAGENA, COLOMBIA

IISS Cartagena Dialogue The inaugural IISS Cartagena Dialogue: The Trans-Pacific Summit brought together decision-makers from government, business and the expert strategic community in the same vein as the annual Manama and Shangri-La Dialogues. The summit was to act as a catalyst for developing relations between the Pacific Alliance states of Latin America and key countries from the Asia-Pacific. Together with our research and growing regional network, the IISS Cartagena Dialogue will establish a new and powerful channel in the region to promote a robust understanding of prospects and challenges in Latin America, Asia and the Pacific states.

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