IISS news
18
Sept. 2013
Global Strategic Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
South Asia / Asia Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Russia–Eurasia Programme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . . 20
Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Discussion Meeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Transnational Threats and Political Risk . . . . . . 22
IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
IISS–Fullerton Lecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
IISS–Oberoi Lecture / Press Launch . . . . . . . . . 24
The 10th IISS Global Strategic Review
‘Assessing Global Risk’ Stockholm, 20–22 September 2013
Carl Bildt, Minister For Foreign Affairs, Sweden; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Espen Barth Eide, Minister Of Foreign Affairs, Norway
The 10th IISS Global Strategic Review (GSR) was
Syria, was ‘Who Manages International Security?’
of Eastern Europe, the Arctic Council and the pro-
held on 20–22 September at Stockholm’s Grand
The debate began with a pre-dinner discussion at
spective transatlantic free-trade area.
Hotel and the Waterfront Congress Centre. Sweden
the Grand Hotel on ‘Strategies for Global Risk’,
As seen from the North, there were, therefore,
and Norway were joint ‘Host Nation Supporters’
featuring Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs
real achievements in international governance. But
of the event, a formula that will be repeated when
Carl Bildt and Norwegian Minister for Foreign
there was also a danger of strategic drift at a time
the GSR moves to Oslo in September 2014. Some
Affairs Espen Barth Eide as chief representatives
when the world community faced prospects of sec-
300 delegates from all major regions attended the
of the two Host Nation Supporters. They provided
tarian war ‘from Beirut to Basra’. Some years ago,
GSR for debate and discussion about the princi-
a view from the North that took in much of the
the Western powers, inspired by laudable ideas
pal drivers of strategic change at the global level,
global system, and ended in the frustrating, famil-
of humanitarian intervention and a ‘responsibil-
through keynote debates and plenary sessions
iar territory of the Middle East. Bildt started with
ity to protect’, succumbed to the hubris that led
dealing with large, overarching themes, and also
the observation that, just as Sweden’s wars had
to disaster in Iraq. The corrective posture of US
a dozen special sessions delving into particular
given way to a determined neutrality, so the era of
President Barack Obama was mainly to the good:
challenges, contingencies and crises. The theme
neutrality ended with Sweden’s 1995 engagement
‘nation building at home’ was indeed required,
was ‘Assessing Global Risk’, and a related strand
in the European Union. This engagement has been
and Obama’s caution meant, for example, that
of enquiry running through the event, given the
transformative, giving Sweden an important role
in Syria ‘we ended up in a better place’ – that is,
backdrop of the dramatic diplomacy surrounding
in such challenges and venues as the reintegration
with a deal for the disposal of chemical-weapons
global strategic re vie w stocks – than military action would have achieved.
Syria, the subject of the first plenary session,‘Global
vided some lessons. Notwithstanding ambitious
Nonetheless, Bildt worried about the ‘rapid shift
Conflicts: Prevention, Mitigation, Intervention,
goals and the application of development theories,
from the hyper-interventionist mood’ to utter dis-
Extraction’, became a central theme running
outcomes remained in doubt. Drawing upon these
engagement. Intervention would have to be ‘more
throughout discussions in Stockholm. At the first
experiences in Afghanistan, Eikenberry concluded
seldom’ but also ‘more determined’. Three issues
plenary Sergei Ivanov, Chief of Staff, Presidential
that ‘the cautionary note for future interventions is
would be key. In Syria, ‘there is no military solu-
Executive Office, Russian Federation; Juan Carlos
to look before you leap’.
tion’; diplomacy would have to be made to work.
Pinzón Bueno, Minister of National Defence,
For Israel–Palestine, US Secretary of State John
Colombia; Karl Eikenberry, Wiliam J. Perry Fellow
Second Plenary Session: Nuclear Risk:
Kerry had achieved a revived diplomatic process
in International Security, Stanford University,
Proliferation, Deterrence, Containment
that exceeded mainly grim expectations, but his
Member of the Council, IISS, each reflected on
In the second plenary session, Robert Einhorn,
failure would mean the end of a two-state solution
the topic using different examples, themes and
former special adviser for non proliferation
– extremely bad news. In Iran, the recent presiden-
geographical references. This highlighted not just
and arms control at the US Department of State,
tial elections had put forward a winner with whom
the breadth and complexity of global conflicts, but
Dr Camille Grand, Director, Fondation pour la
the West could do business; there was no sign of
also the range of factors that have to be considered
Recherche Stratégique, and Major General (Retd)
an Iranian ‘dash’ to nuclear weapons and an agree-
when contemplating interventions.
Amos Yadlin, Executive Director, Institute for
In his well-reported speech, Ivanov said that
National Security Studies, discussed ‘Nuclear
Eide spoke on the Israel–Palestine problem,
conflict continued to drive instability. It was impor-
Risk: Proliferation, Deterrence, Containment’.
where Norway as a state, and Eide personally, have
tant to coordinate responses and ‘stick to the letter
After emphasising the latest positive develop-
been deeply engaged. He reported the ‘strange’
of the law’, which ‘Russia views as a cornerstone of
ments in the field of non-proliferation, such as
recent experience ‘of visiting Ramallah and
international relations’. He stressed the role of the
Myanmar signing the IAEA safeguards Additional
Jerusalem … and leaving more optimistic than
UN Security Council in authorising the use of force;
Protocol and Abdul Qadeer Khan (of the black
I arrived’. In part, both Israelis and Palestinians
other than in self-defence, military force should
market nuclear proliferation network) dissolving
recognised that this ‘is a small piece of land’ that –
only be used after a Security Council resolution.
his political party in Pakistan, Einhorn highlighted
almost uniquely for the region – is not in turmoil,
Elaborating Russia’s position on Syria, Ivanov said
the main problem areas: North Korea, Iran and
and it would be useful to keep it that way. Yet Eide
‘we are not protecting the Syrian government, we
Syria. Yadlin gave a detailed assessment of Israeli
also warned that the Kerry initiative could repre-
are protecting the international law [sic]’. Defence
concerns about the advancing Iranian nuclear pro-
sent a last chance. The alternative of a one-state
minister Pinzón highlighted Colombia’s experi-
gramme. The panel discussed whether the new
solution would be dire, but we should not believe
ence of almost 50 years of conflict. Colombia is
tone in Iranian politics would lead to a resolution
complacently that it could not happen, Eide said.
engaged in implementing an integrated security
of the nuclear crisis and whether the Russian deal
ment should be possible.
Regarding Syria’s civil war, Bildt emphasised
and development strategy, which has reduced
on Syria’s chemical weapons was likely to work. It
one lesson derived from his long experience in
poverty and led to greater economic activity.
was highlighted that, should it be successful, inter-
Balkans diplomacy. Division among outside
The territorial reach of insurgent groups has
national organisations charged with implementing
powers can have ‘in itself material negative effects’.
been reduced dramatically, though diplomacy
proliferation agreements would be boosted. The
also remained critical to Colombia’s strategy.
challenges facing deterrence were also discussed,
First Plenary Session: Global Conflicts:
Ambassador Eikenberry discussed the US calculus
especially in light of the international community’s
Prevention, Mitigation, Intervention, Extraction
for intervention, touching on strategic, domestic,
‘lax’ approach to the use of chemical weapons,
In the shadow of recent debates and tension over
economic, political and legal factors, as well as US
according to Dr Grand.
the conflict – and possibility of intervention – in
scepticism over the use of force. Afghanistan pro-
Sergei Ivanov, Chief of Staff, Presidential Executive Office, Russian Federation
Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno, Minister of National Defense, Colombia
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Karl Eikenberry, William J. Perry Fellow for International Security, Stanford University; Member of the Council, IISS
IISS News
global strategic re vie w
(l–r): Dr Camille Grand, Director, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique; Robert Einhorn, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Program, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Arms Control Initiative, The Brookings Institution; former Special Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, US Department of State; Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non Proliferation and Disarmament Programme, IISS; Major-General (Retd) Amos Yadlin, Executive Director, Institute for National Security Studies; Member of the Council, IISS
Third Plenary Session: Geo-Economics as a
superpower’, and, as with Europe, it continued to
media in promoting these pressures, and others
Driver of Strategic Change
be strategically hobbled by debt, diffident public
questioned Chinese perceptions of Japan’s shift to
Chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the
opinion and resistance from newer strategic actors.
the right, suggesting that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s personal handling of the sovereignty
IISS, the third plenary featured Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS;
The GSR then divided into 12 off-the-record
disputes had in practice been relatively restrained.
Andrés Rozental, Founding President, Mexican
Special Sessions.
Some delegates stressed that there were reasons to be optimistic about inter-state relations in East
Council on Foreign Relations (Comexi) and Philip Stephens, Associate Editor, Financial Times. They
Session 1: Asia’s Conflicts: Tipping from Latent
Asia, in particular with regard to Japan and South
discussed ‘Geo-economics as a Driver of Strategic
to Active?
Korea relations. One delegate noted that conser-
Change’. Demographics, fiscal and financial capa-
Delegates discussed the potential for Asia’s
vative leaders often have more political room to
bility, technology, resources and markets were
latent conflicts to descend into active hostilities.
negotiate on sensitive territorial issues than their
identified by Baru as key elements of geopolitical
Consideration was given to the dangers inherent in
liberal counterparts.
power. Rozental described how economic impulses
current inter-state tensions, the manner by which
Delegates analysed the implications and sus-
have fed integration in Latin America, with new
escalation might occur, and what steps might be
tainability of the US ‘pivot’ to Asia. There was
networks and alliances now emerging in the region.
considered to minimise the chances of escalation.
agreement that the initial ‘packaging’ of the rebal-
While Mercosur and the North American Free
Special attention was paid to the discussion
ance was responsible for its hostile reception on the
Trade Agreement are the most prominent examples,
of territorial disputes in the East China Sea, and
Chinese mainland, where it had the effect of fuelling
the Pacific Alliance, the Trans-Pacific Partnership
the state of Sino-Japanese relations more gener-
mistrust in China–US relations. Several instances of
(TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment
ally. Presenters were generally agreed on the
Beijing’s alarm at the pivot were cited, such as the
Partnership (TTIP) have found favour. According to
causes behind the rise in tensions, in particular
discussion in its latest defence White Paper.
Stephens, economic adversity had helped to make
the role of popular nationalism in influencing how
Delegates also considered the impact of the
hesitancy the defining characteristic of the West’s
these tensions are handled in Beijing and Tokyo.
unravelling Middle East, as well as America’s
strategic posture. The US had become a ‘selective
One delegate drew attention to the role of social
domestic battles over sequestration, and on the
Adam Ward, Director of Studies, IISS
IISS News
Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS
Andrés Rozental, Founding President, Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (Comexi)
Philip Stephens, Associate Editor, Financial Times
SEPTEMBER 2013 | 3
global strategic re vie w
Session 1: Asia’s Conflicts: Tipping From Latent To Active? (l–r) Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS–Asia; Major General Zhu Chenghu, Professor, National Defense University, China; Alexander Neill, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS; Professor Yoshihide Soeya, Professor of Political Science and Director, Institute of East Asian Studies, Keio University; Japan Scholar, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars; Dr William Choong, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS
capability of the United States to deliver on its
region is witnessing the convergence of national
the growing markets of Brazil, Russia, India
stated priorities. US–China military-to-military
sentiments and resource nationalism, giving rise to
and China. The group, now a formal forum also
relations were generally accepted to be at a low
what can be termed ‘resource regionalism’ – remi-
involving South Africa, shares key challenges and
point, although there were, according to some par-
niscent of the Movement for the Emancipation of
ambitions. That the economies of the largest mem-
ticipants, reasons for cautious optimism here too.
the Niger Delta (MEND) in Nigeria, and likely to
bers of the group are slowing down is undeniable.
become a larger force in the future. North African
However, these difficulties may also play a role in
Session 2: Assessing Africa’s Futures
hydrocarbons now face competition from shale gas
strengthening the resolution of member countries
This session examined Africa’s strategic trajectory,
produced in the United States, which diminishes
to pursue a deeper relationship. The BRICS have
through an analysis of security, political and eco-
North African economic power. Also significant is
taken steps to create institutions, such as the $100
nomic developments at the sub-regional level.
the uncertain security environment that character-
billion foreign-exchange reserve announced earlier
A common trend identified by panellists was
ises the region: the In Amenas attack in Algeria in
this month, and a BRICS development bank, which
the proliferation of non-state actors: al-Qaeda affil-
January 2013 has resulted in a daily loss of $5 mil-
is still being planned.
iates are on the rise, and Salafi jihadists pose the
lion for the Algerian government.
Another common challenge is that of push-
greatest threat to North Africa of the past 20 years.
It was noted that Africa is rising in strategic
ing for a more equitable set of global rules. This
In addition, piracy and illicit trafficking in narcot-
importance. It is no longer perceived merely as an
is a result of a common perception among BRICS
ics, weapons and human beings challenges the
aid recipient, but also as a trade partner. Several
countries that the current global governance
stability of several countries, and these phenom-
security challenges remain, but the impact of con-
structure threatens, to some extent, their sover-
ena benefit from weak border-control and security
flict is decreasing.
eignties. This is an ambitious strategy, pursued amid different and sometimes conflicting views
services. Politically, many countries, such as Libya or Mali, are still fragile in the wake of Arab Spring-
Session 3: BRICS: Future and Prospects
on key areas of world affairs – sparking criti-
related upheavals.
This session explored the ambitions and strate-
cism that the BRICS countries are too diverse to
gies of rising powers, amid an economic slowdown
achieve meaningful reforms in the global struc-
in many emerging economies.
ture of power.
In economic terms, the exploitation of natural resources has been crucial to boosting growth across the continent, but this is no panacea, as illustrated
The debate comes nearly 12 years after econo-
This view is countered by the argument that
by the hydrocarbons sector in North Africa. The
mist Jim O’Neill coined the term ‘BRICs’ to describe
the role of the BRICS is not to be a coalition, but a
Session 2: Assessing Africa’s Futures (l–r) Virginia Comolli, Research Associate for Transnational Threats, IISS; Dr Fernando Lima, Chairman of the Board, Mediacoop SA; Dr Geoff Porter, Founder and Director, North Africa Risk Consulting; Alice Friend, Principal Director for African Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense, US Department of Defense
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IISS News
global strategic re vie w influence in the region through two key asymmetries: support provided to non-state actors on ideological grounds, and divisions within the Gulf over the level of support provided to the various factions of the Syrian opposition. It was also suggested that the transformation of the Bashar al-Assad regime into fragmented groups was necessary for its own survival. Session 5: Israel and America in Obama’s Second Term This session, on the US and Israel in Obama’s second term, also considered longer-term dimenSession 3: BRICS: Future and Prospects? (l–r) Braz Baracuhy, Counsellor, Embassy of Brazil in Beijing; Consulting Senior Fellow for Geo-economics, IISS; Minghao Zhao, Adjunct Fellow, Center for International and Strategic Studies, Peking University; Catherine Grant Makokera, Programme Head, Economic Diplomacy, South African Institute of International Affairs
sions of the US–Israel relationship. It was argued that the problems associated with Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories, together with the prospect of an Israeli or American
tool. Unlike NATO, it does not have the aim of
foremost strategic interest. Iran continues to drive
attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, would in the long
being a permanent alliance in which disagree-
forward its set of strategic goals, but with a more
term undermine the centrist American consensus
ments are perceived as weaknesses. Instead, the
pragmatic approach. It was agreed that a change
for a close alliance with Israel. Potentially, the far-
BRICS umbrella can be a useful tactical tool for
in rhetoric could lead to a more fruitful outcome.
right and far-left organisations could drown out their more moderate counterparts on the issue.
different interests, while having in common the
Turning to the unfolding situation in Egypt,
broad aim of rebalancing power and influence
it was suggested that the ousting of President
A panellist argued that the politicisation of
in global institutions and rules. South Africa, for
Muhammad Morsi in July 2013 was a combination
the US–Israel relationship within the American
instance, links its membership with the broader
of coup d’état and revolution, in which new pro-
debate threatened the American consensus. In the
strategy of strengthening the African continent’s
gressive forces and large-scale mobilisations were
2012 election, it looked as though Israel’s prime
role in the world.
capitalised on by organised forces represented by
minister and the US Republican Party had formed
the army and the security establishment. The cur-
an almost open alliance. And yet, their effort to
Session 4: Strategic Competition in the
rent alliance between the new forces and the army
portray the Obama administration as willing
Middle East
remains unstable, and the interests of regional
to throw Israel under the bus did not prevent
Discussions focused on various displays of strate-
actors adds to this volatility.
Obama’s re-election or even his domination of
gic competition in the Middle East, such as in Syria
Finally, the discussion turned to the Syrian
the Jewish vote. There were, moreover, long-term
and Egypt, and Iran’s regional and international
crisis, focusing on how the Gulf states formulate
structural changes in US electoral demography
manoeuvring – since Hassan Rouhani’s election as
their Syria policy, and the consequences of Iran’s
that will tend to favour the Democrats in coming
president – to reaffirm its role in regional security.
involvement with the Gulf in a proxy war in Syria.
decades – and perhaps make them less attentive
Discussing Iran’s foreign policy following
Gulf security policy in Syria relies heavily on
to Israeli perspectives.
Rouhani’s election in June 2013, it was noted
Western commitments in the region, in addition
Another panellist argued that it was a mistake
that recent months have witnessed a change in
to its own regional security policy, which allows
to concentrate so exclusively on the Palestinian
tone, rather than in essence, of Iran’s regional
for the diversification of strategic alliances as long
issue, and that, contrary to conventional wisdom,
and international policy, which stems from Iran’s
as interests are aligned. It was proposed that Syria
Israeli public opinion is moving to the centre rather
unchanging perception of the Persian Gulf as its
exemplifies the level of the Gulf’s knowledge and
than to the far right.
Session 4: Strategic Competition in the Middle East (l–r) Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS; Reader, Department of International Relations, London School of Economics and Political Science; Dr Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow, Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; Adjunct Professor, Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown University; Rabab El Mahdi, Associate Professor of Political Science, American University in Cairo; Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS–Middle East
IISS News
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global strategic re vie w
Session 5: Israel and America in Obama’s Second Term (l–r) Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; Editor of Survival, IISS; Professor Peter Beinart, Editor, Open Zion; Professor, City University of New York; Major General (Retd) Amos Yadlin, Executive Director, Institute for National Security Studies; Member of the Council, IISS; Aluf Benn, Editor-in-Chief, Haaretz; Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS–US; Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East
groupings. The theme of integrating regional trad-
Another panellist observed that US–Israeli ties
Ukraine’s aspiration to meet EU standards – with
are characterised more broadly by shared inter-
the objective to making the economy more competi-
ests, shared values and deep trust. Shared interests
tive – was discussed. A comprehensive free-trade
meant, specifically, that Iran should not become a
agreement Ukraine negotiated with the EU would
Session 7: Models of Effective Defence
nuclear power, that Assad must depart from the
be applied, in a preliminary fashion, on ratification
Cooperation – NORDEFCO
Syrian scene, that Egypt should develop into a
in Ukraine and the European Parliament, rather
In Europe, declining defence spending, the
moderate democracy, and that the strategic goal
than awaiting ratification in all 28 member states.
rebalancing of US defence policy towards the
ing groups cropped up throughout the session.
Panellists observed that there was a competi-
Asia-Pacific region, and the need to engage in
tive element to relations between the European
crisis-management operations has reinforced the
Session 6: Competitive Integration in Europe
and Eurasian projects. On the question of forging
long-standing necessity of improving military
and Eurasia
integration between regional blocs, it was agreed
capabilities through international cooperation.
At their November 2013 summit in Vilnius, EU
it would be difficult for Russia and the EU to
Despite efforts within NATO and the EU to do
member states are due to sign or initial Association
create a common economic one thanks to internal
just that, under the banner of Smart Defence and
Agreements with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.
lobbying pressure.
‘pooling and sharing’, progress has been patchy so
is a two-state solution to the Palestinian problem.
The depth of these agreements is understood in
Panellists noted that both European and
far. Finland, Norway and Sweden have long coop-
Western capitals and Moscow to prevent signato-
Eurasian projects furthered the cause of peace,
erated on defence matters, but their interaction
ries from joining the Customs Union established
although crucially, the Eurasian one was a purely
accelerated significantly in 2009 when they for-
by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. At the start of
economic enterprise, whereas the EU was estab-
malised their collaboration in the Nordic Defence
September, Armenia suddenly announced it would
lished to prevent war between its members.
Cooperation (Nordefco) framework (which also
not sign an Association Agreement but would
Regional free-trade blocs are rising: if a transatlan-
includes Denmark and Iceland). Under the frame-
instead join the Customs Union. This followed
tic trade zone were established, they would account
work, these states have worked together on a broad
the imposition, by Russia, of trade restrictions on
for three-quarters of global trade. Although the
spectrum of military policy, including strategy,
Ukraine and Moldova that seemed designed to deter
Customs Union is designed to boost internal trade,
exercises, education, procurement, capacity-building
those states from moving closer to the EU at Vilnius.
it desires to forge trade agreements with other
and participation in international operations.
Session 6: Competitive Integration in Europe and Eurasia (l–r) Dr Samuel Charap, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, IISS; Andriy Olefirov, Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ukraine; Andrius Krivas, Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lithuania; Andrey Slepnev, Member of the Board, Minister for Trade, Eurasian Economic Commission; Dr Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Management Board, Institute of Contemporary Development; Member of the Council, IISS
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global strategic re vie w
Session 7: Models of Effective Defence Cooperation - NORDEFCO (l–r) Dr Bastian Giegerich, Consulting Senior Fellow for European Security, IISS; Senior Researcher, Bundeswehr Centre for Military History and Social Sciences; Carl von der Esch, State Secretary, Ministry of Defence, Sweden; Torgeir Larsen, State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway; Brigadier General Esa Pulkkinen, Director-General, Defence Policy Department, Ministry of Defence, Finland
In this session, participants examined Nordefco’s
capability needed for modern operations, unless
consequences. Asia’s growing demand for energy
track record to extract valuable lessons and analyse
the trade-off between national autonomy and
is expected to translate into an increased reliance
what makes it successful, but also to determine
cooperation was redefined.
on global energy markets rather than non-market options. It was also noted that Asia’s rising demand
what could prevent further integration. There was general agreement among delegates that Nordefco’s
Session 8: Building Energy Security: Can Global
will mean that global energy markets will be increas-
focus on capabilities, it bottom-up character driven
Markets Fuel Asian Growth?
ingly influenced by trends in Asia, and less so by
by the armed forces, and its flexibility when it comes
The session drew attention to changes in the global
those in North America and OECD markets.
to implementation were key advantages. Cross-
energy landscape with the emergence of new mar-
Finally, the panellists discussed the threat of
border air-combat training, maritime surveillance
kets, especially in Asia, and the decline in the relative
geopolitical risk to global energy markets. The
in the Baltic Sea (SUCBAS), and the Nordic Battle
importance of traditional markets, on account of
Arab Spring, sanctions against Iran and the situa-
Group were singled out as particularly encouraging
reduced demand, greater efficiency in energy use
tion in Syria have affected global oil supply. Given
examples in this respect. Some participants felt the
and the discovery of new domestic sources of energy.
that the United States and many other transatlantic
small group approach to cooperation that Nordefco
Panellists discussed the potentially far-reaching
economies are no longer as dependent on energy
represents was an important element of successful
consequences of these developments for energy
imports from the Middle East (just 16% of total US
collaboration because the countries involved had
markets. They emphasised the fact that energy
oil imports are from the Middle East), geopolitical
a shared sense of their security environment and a
markets’ supply–demand imbalances are corrected
events in the region would impact Asian econo-
long history of operating together.
either through price shifts or power shifts, that is,
mies more, given their increased dependence on
Other participants, while echoing the view
the deployment of equities. In the long run, it was
Middle Eastern oil and gas. Therefore, any disrup-
that Nordefco did yield real benefits, wondered
felt, markets and new technologies would address
tions in the region, especially in the Persian Gulf,
whether the initiative was ambitious enough to
the challenge of rising and changing demand.
would expose all importers, especially those in
meet the challenge of budget constraints and
Drawing upon Asian experiences in particular,
Asia, to price risks. Questions were raised as to
increasing global security responsibilities. Some
the session noted that the steep rise in fuel consump-
what all this would mean for US commitment to
panellists argued that even countries engaged in
tion since 1980, driven largely by high growth rates
regional and energy security in the Atlantic and
advanced cooperation initiatives such as Nordefco
of income in China and India, has contributed to a
the Middle East. Would Asian powers, especially
are likely to find it challenging to generate the
rise in coal consumption, with attendant ecological
China, step in as security providers?
Session 8: Building Energy Security: Can global markets fuel Asian growth? (l–r) Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS; Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security, IISS–Asia; Ben Luckock, Global Head of Crude Oil, Trafigura; Kyoichiro Yokoyama, Vice President Global Research Division, Nomura Securities
IISS News
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global strategic re vie w
Session 9: Achieving Strategic Stability in the Cyber Age (l–r) Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS; Martin Howard, Director of Cyber Policy, GCHQ; Christopher Painter, Coordinator for Cyber Issues, US Department of State; Christopher Spirito, International Cyber Lead, The MITRE Corporation; Eneken Tikk-Ringas, Senior Fellow for Cyber Security, IISS
Session 9: Strategic Stability in the Cyber Age
defence innovation, and requires cross-border
trade routes and access to hydrocarbon resources;
This session discussed how strategic stability in
cooperation between virtually all countries.
a zone of geopolitical tension fuelled by a gold rush for resources and overlapping territorial claims; or
cyberspace can be achieved. Cyber attack is one of
Panellists argued that it is critically important
the largest economic and national security threats
for nations to police their own cyberspace and
that countries face, and is also one of very few public
ensure users are not engaging in illegal activities.
Climate change and the changing physical envi-
policy areas to which more funds are being allocated.
National laws on cyber crime, privacy and intellec-
ronment are the drivers of Arctic geo-economics
tual property must be enforced.
and geopolitics. Uncertainty over the surrounding
Capable governments are monitoring the
a zone of sustained peace and cooperation.
Internet on a global scale, and have observed state
It was agreed that there is no one formula for
science in turn causes strategic and commercial
involvement in espionage, intellectual-property
getting cyber security right. Not all governments
uncertainty. The timing and extent of the impact
theft and cyber crime on a very large scale, some
can exercise technological leadership en masse;
of climate change remains unclear, with projec-
of it very sophisticated. Government departments,
aggressive innovation for first use and deployment
tions and estimates of sea-ice extent and volume
defence firms, telecoms companies, banks and the
is a privilege of the few. Yet other niches exist,
– as well as the amount of recoverable natural
‘soft underbelly’ of the defence industry – such as
and can be created. There are things that all coun-
resources – constantly shifting.
law firms and PR companies – are common targets
tries will be able to do – such as reinforce existing
Panellists debated the possibility that climate
and victims.
international norms, or cooperate to avoid mis-
change could speed up the transition to a low-
appropriation and escalation in cases of conflict.
carbon economy, thus decreasing demand for
Strategic national judgement is needed.
hydrocarbons. Mining may become more important
The US has led the objective of international cyber stability, where cooperation and economic
than oil and gas – although climate change could
growth are incentives to avoid and mitigate conflict. This can be achieved by promoting norms of state
Session 10: Climate Change and the Strategic
also be making this more difficult, as melting per-
behaviour and confidence-building through the
Future of the Arctic
mafrost and ice highways make sites less accessible.
application of existing international law regulat-
The session prompted wide agreement on the need
The prospects for new sea lines of communication
ing cyberspace. Cyber security is a comprehensive
to provide a correction to prevailing media narra-
(SLOCs) were described as overly optimistic by one
effort, requiring a combination of civilian and mili-
tives that cast the Arctic as a zone of vast economic
panellist, particularly with regard to the Northwest
tary, public and private, efforts, from education to
opportunity, thanks to the opening-up of new
Passage in North America, although another per-
Session 10: Climate Change and the Strategic Future of the Arctic (l–r) Christian Le Mière, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, IISS; Dr Jeffrey Mazo, Consultant Editor, Survival; Consulting Senior Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy, IISS; Professor Whitney Lackenbauer, Associate Professor and Chair, Department of History, St Jerome’s University, University of Waterloo; Niklas Granholm, Deputy Director of Studies, Swedish Defence Research Agency; Dr Bjørn Gunnarsson, Managing Director, Centre for High North Logistics
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IISS News
global strategic re vie w
Session 11: Developing Corporate Foreign Policies (l–r) Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Sir John Scarlett, Senior Advisor, Morgan Stanley; Chairman of the Strategic Advisory Committee, Statoil; Rafael Tiago Juk Benke, Global Head, Corporate Affairs, Vale; Karim Raslan, Group Chief Executive Officer, KRA Group; Hubert Loiseleur des Longchamps, Senior Vice-President, Public Affairs, Total S. A.
ceived the future of the Arctic as forming a conduit
policies and practices of foreign governments, the
Taking into account the development of popu-
between Europe, North America and Asia.
relationships within such governments, social cor-
lations affected by such projects, the development
Strategically, the Arctic can no longer be per-
porate responsibility, and a general understanding
of strong corporate social responsibility in addition
ceived in isolation from the rest of the world.
of political risk, disorder, security of operations
to a sophisticated system of understanding politi-
Non-Arctic states are increasingly including the
and espionage. Such skills are readily available in
cal risk has been vital in ensuring effective foreign
Arctic in their strategic – as well as economic – cal-
various government institutions due to the long
policy for companies involved in natural resources.
culus. Analysts in India are now concerned with the
history of cross-border trade and foreign relations,
Finally, it was agreed that links between gov-
‘Bering dilemma’ – that the eventual opening of the
but companies will need to develop and acquire
ernments and corporations are bound to exist and
Northern Sea Route could decrease India’s ability to
those skills through learning and practice.
therefore there is a need to define a sustainable and
contain China, whose dependence on Indian Ocean SLOCs is known as the ‘Malacca dilemma’.
To build a coherent foreign policy, a company
long-term corporate foreign policy. In parallel to
must be able to assess and analyse regional order
this, corporations should develop diplomacy and
The region’s lack of security architecture
– to do this it must be able to build relationships
foreign-policy skills to be credible in the interna-
means it may need some geopolitical assistance.
on a regional level, possess strong senior represen-
tional arena.
However, panellists felt that concern about con-
tatives and, most importantly, maintain effective
flict is overblown. Increased military procurement
relationships with the government in the country
Session 12: Achieving an Effective European
is mainly for the purposes of modernisation, and
of operation to enable local, regional and interna-
Defence Industrial Structure
most known and estimated Arctic hydrocarbons
tional manoeuvring.
The substance of the discussion was one of grow-
are located within undisputed borders, and are therefore unlikely to lead to confrontation.
The complexity of the issue was demonstrated
ing importance. The defence industry faces serious
by analysing the case of mining investments,
challenges as domestic budgets continue to fall
which transcend known geopolitics and geo-eco-
and the export arena grows increasingly fierce.
Session 11: Developing Corporate Foreign Policies
nomics because they involve strategic access to
The failure of the proposed merger between BAE
This session focused on the elements of effective
natural resources – a source of contention because
Systems and the European Aeronautic Defence and
corporate foreign policy. Panellists proposed that
it touches upon issues of sovereignty and resource
Space Company NV (EADS) in 2012 was commented
companies should have an understanding of the
nationalism.
upon several times as a setback for the sector, with some speculation as to whether another deal on this
Session 12: Achieving an Effective European Defence Industrial Structure (l–r) Alexander Nicoll, Director of Editorial; Editor of Strategic Survey; Editor of Strategic Comments, IISS; John Dowdy, Director, McKinsey and Company; Sir Brian Burridge, Vice-President, Strategic Marketing, Finmeccanica UK
scale was likely or achievable in the near to medium term. No consensus emerged on this point, with suggestions that the nature of the European labour market and the difficulty of driving significant costsavings from cutting out job duplication would act increasingly as a disincentive. Domestic German political issues were attributed as the primary cause of the failure of the BAE–EADS deal. While defence is on the agenda for the European Community Summit to be held in December, the extent to which Brussels has any influence or impact on the sector remains contentious. The EC’s two main military powers, France and the United Kingdom, are wary at least of the European Commission extending its competence in the defence arena. While some argued collaboration
IISS News
SEPTEMBER 2013 | 9
global strategic re vie w
Keynote Event: Who Manages International Security? (l–r) Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS; Dr Maleeha Lodhi, Special Adviser for International Affairs, Jang Group; former Ambassador of Pakistan to the US and High Commissioner to the UK; Member of the Council, IISS; Dr Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Management Board, Institute of Contemporary Development; Member of the Council, IISS; Ellen Laipson, President and Chief Executive Officer, Henry L Stimson Center; Member of the Council, IISS
needed to be the default approach, there remains
ening West no longer able to support the global
between effective multilateralism and geopolitical
the challenge of crafting multinational programmes
commons as effectively as before, and the challenge
deals among large powers. Under these circum-
that do not suffer the delays and cost escalation
posed to the emerging powers of how to respond
stances, it was possible to manage problems. But
associated with previous European efforts, or
to this ‘semi-vacuum’. Heisbourg ended with an
the resolution of problems was more difficult,
at least not to the same extent. Adopting a ‘best-
admonition, a warning and caveat. Firstly, the West
requiring greater political focus and diplomatic
athlete’ approach, with prime contractors and
would need to get used to operating in a wider
agility than was available.
work-share on programmes based on competence
system more Westphalian than their own, while
and capability – rather than reflecting the funding
emerging powers would have to learn to loosen
Fourth Plenary Session: Iran, Syria and Egypt
levels of participating nations – was viewed as one
their attachment to classical notions of exclusive
The fourth plenary session delved deeply into the
means of improving project performance.
sovereignty if global challenges were to be tackled.
complexities of the regional politics of the Middle
Trying to better shape Europe’s fragmentary
Secondly, power contests between states will persist.
East. The three speakers – General Fares Al
research-and-development spend through the
Lastly, for all its present travails, the West would not
Mazrouei, Assistant Foreign Minister for Security
EC’s European Defence Agency, however, was
disappear as a strategic actor of global consequence.
Affairs, UAE; Major General Simon Mayall, Senior
raised as a means of trying to offset the worst
Maleeha Lodhi argued that multilateral struc-
Adviser for the Middle East, Ministry of Defence,
impact of funding cuts in this area. Europe spends
tures at the global and regional level had over the
UK; and Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS–
less collectively on research and development
last 50 years not lived up to hopes and expectations.
US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East
than the United States does, and it spends it far
Nevertheless, while recourse to multilateralism
– examined the status of political developments in
less effectively. The importance of developing and
was more difficult and more cumbersome, the
Syria, Egypt and Iran, their interlinked nature and
exploiting the next generation of military-applica-
UN system was the best available mechanism for
their regional impact. Al Mazrouei highlighted
ble technologies was also underscored.
managing security. It had strong sources of legiti-
the necessity of supporting the political process
macy to call on, and scope to practise ‘variable Keynote Event: Who Manages International
political geometry’, as in the case of the Middle
Security?
East, or in respect of diplomatic initiatives towards
The Saturday evening debate addressed the ques-
North Korea and Iran. Lodhi called for a renewal
tion ‘who manages international security?’ There
of commitment to the principles underpinning the
were four panellists drawn from the IISS Council.
UN, with rejection of the use of force outside UN
François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council,
authorisation being key.
said the answer was ‘everybody, and therefore
Igor Yurgens also stressed that Russia sees the
nobody’. It might have been expected that the
UN as ‘the pillar and cornerstone’ of the security
transition from Cold War bipolarity to the present
system. Yet Russia felt simultaneously both secure
multipolarity would have led to the construction of
and insecure within it. A nuclear deterrent made
a classical ‘concert of powers’. But the complex dif-
Moscow confident that it could deter major aggres-
fusion of power on the one hand, and the elusive,
sion, but Russia had few allies and few friends as
transnational character of problems thrown up by
it rubbed up against China, the US, the EU and
globalisation on the other, had made this difficult.
NATO. Ideally, Russia would be a balancing force.
The good news was that this created circumstances
The diplomacy around Syria gave Russia a chance
less conducive to the emergence of an oppressive
to start to act in this way.
form of hegemony; the bad news is that disrup-
Ellen Laipson agreed that if the Syrian enter-
tion at the local and regional level, and by non-state
prise were a success, confidence in the effective
actors, was much easier to achieve. The dominant
management of international security would grow.
features of the international system were a weak-
The world faced a hybrid system somewhere
10
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Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS–US; Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East
IISS News
global strategic re vie w
(l–r) Major-General Faris Mohammed Ahmed Suhail Al Mazrouei, Assistant Foreign Minister for Security and Military Affairs, United Arab Emirates and Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS–Middle East, during the discussion following Saturday’s Fourth Plenary
Lieutenant-General Simon Mayall, Defence Senior Adviser for the Middle East, Ministry of Defence
in Egypt put in place by civilian and military
had in defining a policy that addressed the magni-
do exercise collective bargaining. But the globalisa-
authorities after the ouster of Muhammad Morsi.
tude of the challenge. The nuclear challenge posed
tion of market economics and the communication
He stressed that discontent with the rule of Morsi
by Iran and the opportunities offered by its new
revolution have diluted the notion of a cohesive
resulted from his ‘hegemonic’ approach and said
president Hassan Rouhani occupied much of the
‘South’. Instead, increased cooperation between
that any new political arrangement would need to
discussion, with panellists striking a cautious note
these countries is only one part of their opening to
be inclusive. Al Mazrouei also insisted that a dem-
on recent optimism.
the wider world. As economies develop, they rely on Western investment and technology. Regional
ocratic, inclusive Syria could not emerge while Bashar al-Assad remained in power. Mayall called
Fifth Plenary Session: Measuring ‘South-South’
forums like APEC, ASEM, TTP or the East Asia
on the audience to reflect on the nature and risks
Strategic Networks
Summit remain shaped by the interests of powerful
posed by political change and instability in the
The fifth plenary session, chaired by Dr John
developed countries. India’s own trajectory reflects
Arab world. He warned about Western tendencies
Chipman,
Chief
this complex reality. The unprecedented expansion
to project democratic models onto the Middle East
Executive, discussed ‘Measuring ‘South–South’
of its trade from near-abroad to other continents is
that ignore or discard the centrality of religion and
Strategic Networks’. Kanwal Sibal, former Indian
partly driven by strategic intent, not only economic
other forms of identity. Simon offered a compre-
Foreign Secretary, said cooperation between devel-
momentum. But India’s main economic partners
hensive and sober assessment of the Syrian crisis.
oping economies has become multifaceted after
are established, if not Western powers: the US as
He highlighted its complexity, including its geo-
shedding its anti-Western bias. Regional coopera-
the single largest economic partner and the EU as a
politics and the fragmentation of the rebellion,
tion groups exist. In some trade, environment or
bloc; China for goods; and Russia for defence.
and explained the difficulty Western states have
climate-change negotiations, developing countries
IISS
Director-General
and
(l–r) Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Kanwal Sibal, Former Foreign Secretary, India
IISS News
James Steinberg, Dean, Maxwell School and Professor, Social Science, International Affairs and Law, Syracuse University; former US Deputy Secretary of State
SEPTEMBER 2013 | 11
global strategic re vie w challenges in the form of high rates of unemployment, rising costs of living and a sense of political disenfranchisement. Largely, however, their calls were for a greater role in the political process, and while issues surrounding tribalism and sectarianism existed, it was important not to overstate them. In West Africa, Virginia Comolli, Research Associate for Transnational Threats, IISS, argued that protesters lacked the organisational power of strong trade unions and religious institutions, and the mobilising power of social media. Her presentation also examined the geo-economic effects of protests on inward investment and youth frustration with jobless growth. Antonio Sampaio, Research Analyst for Latin America, IISS, provided analysis of political activism in Brazil and Chile, where a rapidly expanding middle class was vibrantly (and occasionally Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS
Wafa Alsayed, Research Analyst, IISS–Middle East
violently) expressing their desire for change and revision of existing social contracts. Endy Bayuni, Editor of the Jakarta Post, stated that the wind of
Reviewing the global landscape of South–
developed countries interact in the same groups.
political change blows slowly through Southeast
South cooperation, James Steinberg, Dean of
Steinberg cited US and European interactions with
Asia but it had come to Indonesia and was
Maxwell School at Syracuse University and
African states for interventions in crises such as
approaching Myanmar. Bayuni also stressed the
former US Deputy Secretary of State, pointed out
that in Somalia. Global governance debates within
importance of civil society, not in imposing change
that a major driver for recent initiatives has been
the G20 were also cited. These initiatives, he said,
but in providing a stabilising force and maintain-
the opposition to a unipolar system. The most
give emerging powers greater roles and voices in
ing the integrity of the state in the event that the
common target has been the United States, due
world affairs, and provide good frameworks for
regime falls.
to its position as a global power. Groups such as
the future.
The IISS is immensely grateful for the role of the Swedish and Norwegian Ministries of Foreign
the Venezuela-led ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas) still define themselves according to
Sixth Plenary Session: Political Activism and its
Affairs in supporting the GSR in 2013 and 2014.
what they are against rather than what they are
Geo-Political Effects
The Institute also acknowledges the kind sup-
for, he said. But after the Cold War, another driver
The final plenary session examined ‘Political
port of BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, Northrop
of South–South cooperation has been the growing
Activism and its Geopolitical Effects’. Wafa
Grumman, Orascom Construction Industries,
capacity and relevance of developing countries for
Alsayed, Research Analyst, IISS–Middle East, said
Reliance Industries, Saab AB, Statoil and the
debates on global issues. A model for the future is
the emergence of the Gulf youth as political actors
Bahrain Economic Development Board.
that of hybrid systems, in which developing and
should not be a surprise since they faced acute
Virginia Comolli, Research Associate for Transnational Threats, IISS
Antonio Sampaio, Research Analyst for Latin America, IISS
12
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SEPTEMBER 2013
Endy Bayuni, Senior Editor, Jakarta Post
IISS News
russia–eurasia pr ogramme / LATIN AMERICA
Oil as an Instrument of Russian Foreign and Security Policy Russia’s use of gas supply as a tool of policy has received considerable scrutiny in recent years, but the relationship between oil supply and foreign policy has received much less attention. On 2 July, Dr Nicholas Redman, IISS Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, presented an analysis of the actors, methods and objectives that influence Russian oil policy towards neighbouring states. By building new pipelines and terminals, using supplies to gain control of key infrastructure, keeping other CIS oil producers dependent on Russian pipelines, and opening a new window on Asia, Russia’s state agencies and oil companies have helped to shape the country’s relations with neighbours from west to east. The meeting was held at Bloomsbury House, London, and was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies. Adam Ward and Dr Nicholas Redman
Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/182sRaA.
Egypt’s Transition Fatigue – a Russian Perspective On 29 July, just a few weeks after Egypt’s military ousted President Morsi from office, the renowned Russian Arabist Professor Vitaly Naumkin gave a Russian perspective on Egypt’s reform fatigue. He argued that Russia had been ill-prepared for the downfall of the Mubarak regime in 2011, and had hesitated to build ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Over the last year, however, Moscow has concluded that the Brotherhood is a force that cannot be ignored, and it has sought to engage it. Professor Naumkin contended that this analysis holds, despite the overthrow of Morsi and the risk that the army will seek to ban the Brotherhood as a political entity. Egypt is at the start of a lengthy, contested transition that will be difficult. Responding to questions, Professor Naumkin raised the worrying prospect that the Brotherhood’s younger supporters would react to the military coup by rejecting democratic politics and working to regain power by other means.
Professor Vitaly Naumkin
The meeting was chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, IISS Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security.
Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/1fCL6HL.
South America after Chavez For 14 years, Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez conducted an active and often inflammatory foreign-policy campaign. Upon winning the elections that followed Chavez’s death earlier this year, Nicolas Maduro inherited a divided country that is rapidly losing the economic power to sustain Chavez’s alliances and ambitions. The passing of the charismatic Chavez and the growing instability in Venezuela point to a decline in support for left-wing allies in Latin America. The main beneficiary of this realignment could be Brazil, whose influence in South America is increasing. Antonio Sampaio, Research Analyst for Latin America at the IISS, examined the challenges for Venezuela and the regional shifts after Chavez. He authored an article on this topic in the June–July issue of Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. The meeting was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; Editor of Survival at the IISS. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/14utAy8. IISS News
Dr Dana Allin and Antonio Sampaio
SEPTEMBER 2013 | 13
IISS–us
Security in the Arctic Region On 16 July, the IISS–US hosted a roundtable discussion on security in the Arctic region with Wegger Christian Strommen, Ambassador of Norway to the United States. Ambassador Strommen highlighted the importance of the Arctic Council and discussed Norway’s role as an important Arctic state. Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS–US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East, moderated the discussion.
(l–r): Wegger Christian Strommen, Ambassador of Norway to the United States and Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS-US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East
US–Russia Relations and the Asia Pacific As both the United States and Russia move to participate in the global economic and political shift to Asia, the question remains as to how these two powers can cooperate in the Asia-Pacific region. Despite a long history of animosity and conflict between Russia and the US, some experts believe the region is ripe for cooperation between the two powers. ‘Prospects for U.S.-Russia Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region’, the third paper of the Working Group on the Future of US–Russia Relations,
Dr Samuel Charap, Ogel Barabanov, Jeffry Mankoff and Gilbert Rozman
a paradiplomatic effort that IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia Dr Samuel Charap helps lead, was presented at IISS–US on 26 July. The paper’s
was something of a scandal in Moscow. He discussed the impact of inter-
authors, Jeffrey Mankoff and Oleg Barabanov, participated in a panel chaired
national factors, such as the eurozone crisis and hydrocarbon trade, in the
by Charap, with Professor Gilbert Rozman of Princeton University serving as
construction and implementation of the Russian ‘go East’ policy. Agreeing
a discussant.
with Mankoff, Barabanov stated that the ‘China factor’ was perhaps the big-
Dr Mankoff, Deputy Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the
gest in the Russian government’s decision to focus on its eastern flank, with
Center for Strategic and International Studies, began the discussion with an
the rapprochement between the two countries leading to improved relations
argument for cooperation. Asia, he said, is less subject to the intense US–
between Russia and other Asian nations, such as Japan and South Korea.
Russia rivalry than other regions of the world; their respective ‘pivots’ are
Barabanov concluded with a remark that the Asia-Pacific region could be a
an opportunity to work together. Russia, however, remains fairly ambivalent
vector for cooperation between the United States and Russia.
about Asia, with a mostly rhetorical pivot of little substance; as such, Russia
Discussant Gilbert Rozman, professor at Princeton University, praised the
does not factor into US policy on the region. This obstacle, in hand with com-
report for its timeliness in a period of tense relations between the US and
plex Sino-Russian and Sino-US relations, could potentially complicate any
Russia. However, Rozman focused on Russia’s relationship with China,
cooperation in the region. However, he argued, both parties, despite their
and the extent to which he believes Russia has become a ‘satellite’ of China.
stark differences and a distinct chill in relations, should work together to
Rozman stated that Russia needs China more than China needs Russia, which
build a more effective multilateral structure in the Asia-Pacific region.
adds to its strategic weakness in the region, along with a lack of multilateral
Dr Barabanov, professor at the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, stressed that, for Russia, its absence in the US ‘rebalancing’ to Asia
integration. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/19zimee.
The Philippines–US Relationship in a Changing Strategic Landscape On 10 September, the IISS–US hosted a roundtable discussion with Jose L. Cuisia, Jr., Ambassador of the Republic of the Philippines to the United States, about recent developments in the Philippines–US relationship as well as the changing strategic landscape and maritime-security issues in Southeast Asia. Ambassador Cuisia spoke about the importance of the Philippines–US relationship in Southeast Asia from a military, security and economics standpoint and he also explained the Philippines’ stance on maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea. 14
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SEPTEMBER 2013
Jose L. Cuisia, Jr., Ambassador of the Republic of the Philippines to the United States
IISS News
IISS–us
IISS–SAIS Merrill Center Young Strategists Programme in Security and Geo-economics
Participants and Faculty in the Young Strategists Programme
From 29 July to 2 August, the IISS, in partnership with the Philip Merrill Center
politics of extractive industries; development and counterterrorism; climate
for Strategic Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced
change; terrorism, governance and economic development; food security;
International Studies (SAIS), hosted the Young Strategists Programme in Security
financial and fiscal crises; the rise of China; and South American defence inte-
& Geo-economics at the Rockefeller Foundation Bellagio Center in Bellagio, Italy.
gration. The participants also convened in plenary sessions for discussions led
The programme brought together 20 young policy leaders from six
by faculty members.
continents to examine the relationships among geopolitics, economics,
In a post-conference questionnaire, one participant responded that ‘the
development and security. Participants were chosen through a competitive
bonds established with other young strategists’ was the best part of the con-
application process to which over 300 people applied. The only requirement
ference. Perhaps even more importantly, these young leaders were taken out
was that participants could not turn 36 during the 2013 calendar year. Faculty
of their usual echo chambers and exposed to new ideas. International security
were chosen from IISS and SAIS staff and networks.
specialists and economic development professionals work on overlapping
The participants were split into two groups: one focused on geo-economics
and intersecting issues, but do not spend enough time working together. One
and economic development, the other on geopolitics and security. Each par-
participant responded, ‘in Washington I talk to the same people every day.
ticipant prepared a 20-page paper which they presented to their respective
Here, I am exposed to an entirely new group of people who think differently
groups. Topics addressed included economic inequality in conflict; the geo-
about the same sorts of questions I care about.’
IISS–US Policy Makers Series Cyber security is the ‘biggest national security threat that America is not quite yet ready to handle’, Congressman Mike Rogers, Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, stated during a 22 July Policy Makers Series event at the IISS–US. In a presentation centered on the need to protect the United States’ economy from cyber attacks, Congressman Rogers stressed that the security dialogue should address this grave threat to American economic innovation, competitiveness, private security and critical
Congressman Mike Rogers
infrastructure. The Congressman outlined several ways the United States is vulnerable
Korea and Iran, the security implications for the United States have grown
to cyber attack, such as disruptive hacktivism, private information theft and
as well. Intellectual-property theft cuts short the ability of private business to
fraud, large-scale information theft by organised criminal groups and intellec-
innovate and expand, while allowing American technologies and ideas to be
tual-property theft. Each of these offers the potential for significant financial
used by other states for their own economic benefit. Meanwhile, the United
gain by the aggressor, and represents, ‘the biggest illegal transfer of wealth in
States’ critical infrastructure remains at risk, a cyber attack on the electric grid
history’, to which there are no consequences.
or other vital utilities used daily by the American people could cause domes-
Though cyber crime instigated by small groups is a real financial threat
tic chaos on an unprecedented scale.
to individuals and the economy, the Congressman repeated that the grow-
Congressman Rogers concluded by noting that the cyber domain currently
ing nature of cyber attacks as a tool of nation states is a worrying trend. He
provides enormous benefits to malicious actors with limited consequences for
noted that with the vast human, financial and technical resources available
illicit activity. Complacency will only serve to further put the United States’
to states, private businesses are at a great disadvantage. If a state wishes to
economy and national security at risk, he said, and though the issue is large
infiltrate a private network, it has the resources and capacity to continue to
and difficult to grasp, it must be done. He argued that the US cannot accept
attack until it eventually infiltrates that network. As states have increased
‘that one open window in a very dangerous neighborhood’.
their ability to wage cyber war, particularly states like China, Russia, North IISS News
Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/170C03N. SEPTEMBER 2013 | 15
IISS–MIDDLE EAST
The Manama Dialogue Sherpa Meeting On 8 September the IISS–Middle East held a preparatory Sherpa meeting for the 9th IISS Regional Security Summit: the Manama Dialogue. This multilateral meeting convened military leaders, senior national-security officials and key IISS experts from across the globe, including representatives from the GCC, the United States, the United Kingdom and France at the IISS–Middle East headquarters in Manama, Bahrain. Sherpa delegates debated key regional security challenges, such as the crisis in Syria, Iran’s new political environment, as well as Gulf security and the enduring commitment from Western states. The Sherpa meeting plays a key role in the Manama Dialogue process as senior diplomats and military officers refine their arguments and positions on the more sensitive issues of regional security in preparation for the participation of their ministerial delegations at the annual summit in December.
Dr Al Zayani and Major-General Faris Al Mazrouei
Sherpa delegates deliberate key regional security challenges
IISS and BDF Cyber War Seminar On 17 September, the IISS and the Bahrain Defence Force (BDF) hosted a sem-
element of modern war. The participants discussed its impact on the collec-
inar in Bahrain to discuss the modern threat of cyber warfare. This seminar
tion and analysis of information, as well as the influence the threat of cyber
was the first meeting of the IISS-BDF Cyber Security Series, a series of brief-
warfare has on energy and industry. Highlighting the vulnerability of every
ings and workshops that will be examining key issues of cyber security and
nation, the seminar further explored the role of social media and the ability to
their implications for the region.
use such networks in cyber warfare.
The ‘Cyber War’ seminar featured an elite group of cyber experts and
Nigel Inkster stated, ‘in an ICT network-enabled world the ability of
military chiefs including: Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and
states to exercise power effectively is critical to ensure national security and
Political Risk, IISS; Rafal Rohozinski, Principal, The SecDev Group; Dr John
to pursue national advantage. Through the IISS-BDF Cyber Security Series,
Sheldon, Founder and Principal Consultant, The Torridon Group; and Chris
the IISS aims to make available to the BDF world-class expertise and thought
Spirito, International Cyber Lead, the MITRE Corporation.
leadership to assist Bahrain’s security and defence communities in devel-
In examining the global and regional security implications of cyber warfare, the seminar emphasised the significance of cyber war as an essential 16
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oping concepts and capabilities that will enable them to address challenges within the Gulf region and beyond.’ IISS News
IISS–MIDDLE EAST
Discussion Meeting: Syria’s Uprising On 29 July, the IISS–Middle East hosted a Ramadan Majlis to discuss Emile Hokayem’s new Adelphi book, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant, which he described as ‘a sober analysis of the situation in Syria and the product of a lengthy analytical struggle’. Hokayem’s extensive research, involving meetings with senior associates of President Bashar al-Assad, rebel commanders, opposition leaders in exile and foreign government officials, led to some stark conclusions on the impact of the conflict so far. Hokayem argued firstly that the conflict ‘is marking the Levant in ways that only the creation of the State of Israel in 1948 has’, and secondly, that the
Mark Allworthy and Emile Hokayem
conflict has already gained greater significance than the Iraq War at a humanitarian, regional and strategic level.
metries, largely involving the role of Iran and its associates; currently the
Hokayem explained the dynamics of the current conflict by going back
pro-Assad forces are benefiting from Hizbullah and the Quds Force’s strategic
to the changes in the constituency of the Syrian regime that took place after
experience and patience, which the Gulf states supporting the rebels cannot
Assad assumed power. He also argued that the fault lines of the conflict today
offer. Although Assad has proved resilient and adaptable, Hokayem says that
have their origin in the gradual decay of the Syrian state, which began long
claims the regime is ‘winning’ are overstated; Syria is in a strategic stalemate.
before the first demonstrations of the uprising in March 2011. Hokayem’s predictions for the future path of the conflict were based on some key asym-
The meeting was chaired by Mark Allworthy, Managing Director IISS–Middle East.
A New Iraqi Civil War? The renewed violence in Iraq this year is the biggest threat to the country’s stability and economic development since the post-invasion violence started to decline in 2008, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East Dr Toby Dodge said during a talk at IISS–Middle East on 10 September. Some 3,200 Iraqis were killed in suicide bombings and other attacks in the first six months of 2013, the United Nations has estimated. Another 1,000 died in July. Most press commentary has explained this rising violence either as an inevitable result of the American military withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 or as a spillover from the civil war in neighbouring Syria. Dr Dodge thought there was a kernel of truth in both accounts, but neither told the full story. Instead, he argued that sectarian violence had principally returned because nationalist, secular and Sunni Iraqis were being politically excluded, and al-Qaeda was taking advantage of their disaffection. For example, al-Qaeda in Iraq used a violent government crackdown on
Dr Toby Dodge and Michael Elleman
opposition protests in April 2013 as a chance to claim that it was protecting Iraqi Sunnis. Some Iraqis felt that their investment at the ballot box in the last national
recounted how Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had accrued yet more power to his office.
elections in 2010 ‘was neglected’ and that ‘they were subject to state repres-
National elections next year would be critical, Dr Dodge said. The two
sion’, so they gave their backing to this radical, violent group. This provoked a
main Shia parties could strike a deal to keep Maliki out of power, which they
reaction from Shia militias, which Dr Dodge described as the most worrisome
failed to do in 2010. But it is more likely that Maliki will have amassed enough
turn of events in Iraq for several years.
power to shape the 2014 election in his favour, further plunging Iraq into a
Dr Dodge has written extensively about Iraq’s steady move towards a new authoritarianism, including in his 2013 IISS Adelphi book Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism. Speaking at the IISS–Middle East office in Manama, he IISS News
cycle of sectarian-fuelled violence. The discussion was moderated by Michael Elleman, Senior Fellow for Regional Security Cooperation, IISS–Middle East. SEPTEMBER 2013 | 17
iiss fuller ton lec ture
Fullerton Lecture: Australian Foreign Minister
Senator Bob Carr
Dr Tim Huxley
In his IISS–Fullerton Lecture on 9 July, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs
Senator Carr highlighted not only Canberra’s October 2012 White Paper
Senator Bob Carr emphasised that Australia is not just within Asia, it is part of
on ‘Australia in the Asian Century’, but also Lee Kuan Yew’s congratulations
Asia. Stopping in Singapore as part of a tour of Southeast Asia (his next stop
to former Australian Prime Minister Gough Whitlam, almost 40 years ago, on
being Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw), the minister praised the role of the
the abandonment of the ‘White Australia’ policy. ‘Australia now’, the minister
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in regional decision-making,
said, is ‘globally engaged, focused on Asia, enmeshed in the forums of the
and said Australia welcomed Asia’s economic and social transformation.
region, self-consciously multicultural, confident of its place in our neighbour-
However, he warned that the positive momentum could be disturbed by financial pitfalls, social unrest and territorial conflict.
hood, and a free trader.’ On a more cautionary note, he identified three areas challenging the
Senator Carr said that while in earlier times Australia had naturally
‘happy narrative’ in the region: ‘old fashioned’ territorial disputes (such as
looked towards the English-speaking world – and that this legacy remained
those in the South China Sea), ethno-religious tension (such as in Myanmar)
– Australia’s growing Asian credentials were equally, and perhaps in the
and the ‘middle-income trap’ (with national economies being cheated of the
long-term more, significant. ‘Picking up the phone to Jakarta, Singapore and
benefits of market liberalisation and economic reform).
Tokyo has become the norm, embedded in the way we do diplomacy. As it was decades ago, and still is, with London and Washington,’ he said.
Senator Carr’s lecture and subsequent discussion also highlighted the importance for Australia of the Sino-US relationship. Australia is a military ally of the United States, but China is its biggest economic partner. Nevertheless, the minister insisted that Australia, like Singapore, should not have to choose between China and the United States. He added that Canberra ‘takes no position’ on any territorial claims in the South China Sea. The lecture at the Fullerton Hotel, Singapore, was chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS–Asia. Watch the lecture and read the transcript at http://bit.ly/1h0RJ4A.
Participants during the Q&A at the Fullerton Forum
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IISS News
south asia / ASIA PACIFIC
US and India: ‘Rice and Kerry’ Diplomacy? one of potential strategic partnership’. The high point was the 2008 bilateral civil nuclear deal under which India agreed to separate its civil and military nuclear facilities, and the United States agreed to work towards full civil nuclear cooperation. Nayar agreed that the India–US relationship has been ‘one of the most transformational of our time’. He said India and the US are hoping to develop their ties: ‘both sides have been looking at something, not quite on the scale of the nuclear deal, but something that would be a symbol of the relationship, and how it is going to go forward.’ ‘My expectation is that permission to export LNG [liquefied natural gas] will be one of the elements that may come out,’ he said. The other area likely to be discussed is the defence relationship; this may K.P. Nayar and Rahul Roy-Chaudhury
include a ‘unique proposal’ under which US defence equipment would be loaned to India.
What is in store for the US–India relationship, with Indian elections and criti-
He noted that Rice had been a crucial element in the development of the
cal regional security challenges, and new interlocutors on the US side in the
two countries’ ties: ‘in my estimation, the one person who has singularly
form of National Security Advisor Susan Rice, Secretary of State John Kerry
contributed, as an individual, more than anybody else to the transformation
and Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel?
of Indo-US relations is Condoleezza Rice,’ he said, first as national security
To explore this question, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for
adviser to President George W. Bush, then later as his secretary of state.
South Asia, invited K.P. Nayar, chief diplomatic editor and correspondent for
He felt that for the remainder of Obama’s term, the person to take on this
the Americas at India’s Telegraph newspaper, to give a talk on US–India rela-
role would be Susan Rice. Remarking on her time as US permanent repre-
tions on 9 September. Nayar – who remarked that as a journalist he could not
sentative to the United Nations, he observed that: ‘it’s only the resolutions or
resist a snappy headline – titled it ‘Will India’s “Rice and Kerry” Diplomacy
president’s statements that people remember, but the negotiations and the
in Washington take off?’
lobbying talks … it’s amazing how much Susan Rice contributed to India and
As Roy-Chaudhury noted, the India–US relationship has ‘undergone a paradigm shift, from a period of concern over the US role in South Asia, to
the US working together in the Security Council’. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/19zimee.
China’s Evolving Relationship with North Korea
Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Dr Adam Cathcart, Adam Ward and Dr Lora Saalman
Despite the much-publicised optimism for a significant shift in Chinese
sive policy of denuclearisation if such a move would threaten the stability of
policy towards North Korea following the country’s third nuclear test, there
the Kim regime. New president Xi Jinping is busy with much-needed domestic
is little pressure from within the Chinese system for such a change in policy.
reforms and is unlikely to expend political capital to gamble on experimenting
This was a conclusion of a 9 July IISS discussion meeting organised by the
with such a complicated foreign-policy issue. Although the People’s Liberation
Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme with Dr Lora Saalman,
army likely has an internally divided view of North Korea’s continued value as
an Associate at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, Dr Adam
a strategic buffer, the lingering dominance of the army likely delays any overall
Cathcart, Lecturer in Asian History, Queens University Belfast and editor of
shift in policy. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the actor most likely to support
SinoNK.com, and IISS Research Assistant Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga.
a change in policy, but it is the weakest actor of this top tier and has been losing
Panellists explained that the most important actors in China's decisionmaking on North Korea policy have little incentive to advocate a more aggresIISS News
influence over North Korea policy since 2009, the panellists said. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/170rCJz. SEPTEMBER 2013 | 19
non-pr oliferation and disarmament / discussion mee ting
Deciphering Iran’s Elections On 12 July, a month after Hassan Rouhani was elected as president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the IISS hosted a panel on ‘deciphering the Iranian elections’. The panel included Dr Saeed Barzin, an Iran analyst with the BBC Persian Service and the BBC Monitoring service, IISS Research Associate Dina Esfandiary and Azadeh Moaveni, a former Middle East correspondent for Time magazine. The panel was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.
Dr Saeed Barzin, Dina Esfandiary, Adam Ward and Azadeh Moaveni
Panellists agreed that the result of the elections was a surprise for everyone. With this vote, Iranians made clear that they were tired of the country’s state
ent message and likely be more forthcoming in talks with the West. Moaveni
of affairs. Dr Barzin explained that the elections were an ‘act of compromise’
focused on the poor state of the Iranian economy and explained that the new
where Iranians were asking for change without risk. The entire process high-
president would not be able to make significant changes rapidly because his
lighted the maturity of the political establishment in Iran and strengthened
‘hands would be tied’ by the hardliners. Improving Iran’s economic outlook
the Supreme Leader’s position. Esfandiary commented that it was unlikely
will be a lengthy process that requires political will and patience.
that Iran’s foreign policy would change much, but it would carry a differ-
Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/16qEmeQ.
IISS Regional Workshop on UN Sanctions on North Korea: Prospects and Problems On 4 September, the IISS convened a workshop on ‘UN Sanctions on North Korea: Prospects and Problems’ in Dubai. The workshop, part of a series of events on regional outreach and engagement on effective UN sanctions implementation, brought together relevant private-sector participants and officials
Dubai workshop
from the Middle East. The workshop, hosted by the IISS in conjunction with the UN Panel of Experts on sanctions on North Korea, was chaired by Mark
Panel of Experts also provided an overview of the measures that must be
Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme
taken in order to comply with UN sanctions and the risks associated with
at the IISS. Participants discussed how UN sanctions on North Korea are being
infringing on them. Various approaches were assessed, including transport
implemented, best practices thereof, and the difficulties that governments and
and shipping (interdiction), financial, export and import-related measures, as
commercial entities in the Middle East have experienced in this regard. The
well as regional approaches to enforcement of UN sanctions on North Korea.
Discussion Meeting - The Plutonium Track: Implications for the Completion of Iran’s Heavy Water Reactor at Arak On 11 September, the IISS hosted a discussion meeting with Dr Ephraim Asculai, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for National Security Studies, on the development of Iran’s heavy water reactor at Arak. The meeting was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the IISS. Although all eyes have been on Iran’s uranium-enrichment programme, Dr Asculai explained that if Iran continues down the current plutonium path, it could probably produce a plutonium nuclear explosive device by the end of 2016. This timeline holds, he said, despite the delayed start-up of the Arak heavy water reactor.
Mark Fitzpatrick and Dr Ephraim Asculai
Concerned about the proliferation potential of a 40MW reactor, which would be able to produce weapons-grade plutonium sufficient for 1.5 weap-
between 1988 and 1992, but does not today have a reprocessing capability.
ons a year, the UN Security Council in 2006 mandated that Iran suspend
Detecting the construction of a reprocessing plant (large buildings with thick
construction at Arak. For weapons use, the plutonium must be separated from
walls) would be relatively straightforward. The IAEA could potentially detect
the rest of the spent fuel through a relatively straightforward chemical separa-
gases emitted by the plant, but only if it had enhanced access.
tion operation called reprocessing. Iran carried out reprocessing experiments 20
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The video and report of the discussion can be accessed here: http://bit.ly/18ZiqSk. IISS News
discussion mee ting
The Muslim Brotherhood and the Arab Spring
Dr Abdul Mawgoud Dardery, Professor Madawi al-Rasheed, Daniel Benjamin, Steven Simon, Dr Thomas Pierret and Dr Omar Ashour
Since the Arab Spring erupted, the Muslim Brotherhood has emerged as a ‘sig-
Gadhafi, there was a sense that arms would guarantee political rights, not the
nificant presence’ in contemporary Middle Eastern politics. On 10 September,
constitution, posing long-term security challenges.
four panellists discussed the role and impact of the organisation in different
Dr Thomas Pierret, author of Religion and State in Syria, described how 2011 was a ‘long-waited opportunity’ for the Brotherhood to enter the politi-
countries across the region. Co-chair Daniel Benjamin explained how, from the late 1920s to two
cal system in Syria after decades of exclusion. The organisation quickly
years ago, the Brotherhood was viewed as a mysterious and often conspira-
became influential in the Syrian National Council; the opposition was highly
torial organisation. With branches in different countries, it was thought to
fragmented and the Brotherhood was better organised and enjoyed support
be monolithic. However, he described the Brotherhood’s rise as a ‘highly
from Qatar and Turkey. Since then, however, the Brotherhood in Syria has
diverse phenomenon’, ranging from An-Nahda in Tunisia which had ‘kept
been debased, facing challenges from other powerful groups, mostly Salafist,
the country on an even keel’ to Egypt, where the largest regional branch of
who are increasingly better funded and organised.
the Brotherhood was now essentially in opposition, having been ousted from
Professor Madawi al-Rasheed, an expert on the Muslim Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia, explained why the monarchy views the Brotherhood as a
power unexpectedly. Dr Abdul Mawgoud Dardery, Foreign Affairs Spokesman for the Freedom
threat, both in terms of regional and internal politics. The organisation is a
and Justice Party in Egypt, described developments there as a journey
‘real social movement’, using the language of modernity, human rights and
towards freedom, human dignity and social justice, after 60 years of military
engagement of democratic process in its rhetoric. She noted that two hours
dictatorship. In his view, state terrorism should have been condemned by
after Muhammad Morsi was removed from power, Saudi Arabia congratu-
the ‘civilised world’ – the West could not turn a blind eye to crimes against
lated the interim president and promised $7 billion in aid to Egypt; the Saudis
humanity committed by the Egyptian government.
were fully supporting the coup.
Dr Omar Ashour, author of The De-Radicalization of Jihadists: Transforming
This meeting, part of a wider conference on the Muslim Brotherhood,
Armed Islamist Movements and From Bad Cop to Good Cop: The Challenge of
was co-chaired by Daniel Benjamin, Director, Dickey Center for International
Security Sector Reform in Egypt, explained how the Brotherhood in Libya shared
Understanding, Dartmouth College and Steven Simon, Executive Director,
a ‘history of oppression’ with other regional branches, with crackdowns and
IISS–US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East. The meeting took
many members in exile. However, the religious rhetoric in Libya did not
place at Arundel House, London.
attract voters like it did in Egypt. He explained how, since the overthrow of
Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/19CeMQh.
Survival: Global Politics and Strategy Latest issue
IISS News
In the October–November issue of Survival,
relations and Steven Simon discusses America’s limited power in Egypt. Also
Nigel Inkster analyses Sino-American compe-
in the issue: Shashank Joshi and Aaron Stein on emerging drone nations; Nick
tition in space and cyberspace, David P. Calleo
Bisley and Andrew Phillips on US strategic geography in Asia; and Brendan
argues for a new narrative in transatlantic
Taylor on China’s relations with North Korea. SEPTEMBER 2013 | 21
Transnational Threats and Political Risk
The Gordian Knot of Organised Crime, Violent Conflict and Human Security During a discussion on 30 July, Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown, Senior Fellow at the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence in the foreign policy programme at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, addressed the IISS audience on the challenges posed by organised crime and illicit economies. Usefully, she proposed a number of concrete measures law enforcement prac-
Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown
titioners and policymakers should adopt to contain organised crime and limit its impact on security, society and the economy. Dr Felbab-Brown argued
as engagement would lead to unwanted results unless the balance of power is
that the ultimate goal of law enforcement should be to turn criminals into
first changed. Finally, adding a word of caution, Dr Felbab-Brown reminded
‘good criminals’, i.e. groups and individuals who do not use violence, try to
the audience – and law enforcement practitioners – that when it comes to
corrupt the state or provide services for local communities in order to buy
transactional crime there is a limit to the extent to which it can be reduced,
legitimacy. She also advised against entering into negotiations with criminals
even in Western Europe.
Adelphi Book Launch in Mexico
Adelphi Book Launch in Colombia
Cesar Martinelli, Nigel Inkster, Alejandro Hernández, and Rafael Fernández de Castro
Fabio Sánchez, Nigel Inkster and Daniel Mejia
Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, launched the
The Adelphi book Drugs, Insecurity and Failed States: The Problems of Prohibition
Spanish-language version of the Adelphi book Drugs, Insecurity and Failed States:
was also launched in Bogota, Colombia, on 21 August. The Spanish-language
The Problems of Prohibition (Drogas, Inseguridad y Estados Fallidos: Los Problemas de
version of the Adelphi by Nigel Inkster and Virginia Comolli, Research
la Prohibición) in Mexico, on 19 August. The Autonomous Technological Institute
Associate for Transnational Threats, was a partnership between the IISS and the
of Mexico (ITAM) hosted the event, which also featured Rafael Fernández de
Universidad de Los Andes. Nigel Inkster spoke at Los Andes, alongside Daniel
Castro, Chair, Department of International Studies, and Cesar Martinelli, Dean
Mejía, Director of the Centre for Studies on Security and Drugs (CESED).
of Economics, Law and Social Sciences, as commentators.
Inkster argued that current policy choices
The audience and participants discussed the close relationship between
for governments aiming to reduce drug traf-
Mexico, which faces a series of security challenges due to drug trafficking, and
ficking are unlikely to result in a significant
the largest drug-consumption market in the world, the United States. Nigel
decrease in supply for consumer states. He
Inkster emphasised one of the conclusions from the book: the need for greater
mentioned the fight against drugs in Colombia
participation of countries that are major consumer markets for drugs, to pro-
as an example. The country has achieved the
vide more support to states affected by violence. The speakers from ITAM
best results in reducing narcotics-related vio-
echoed this preoccupation, saying that the long-standing position in favour of
lence, to the point where it can be seen as a
prohibition has meant a transfer of costs to countries along trafficking routes,
law-enforcement issue rather than a national-
such as Mexico and its neighbours in Central America. These states have been
security one. As a result, however, drug
overwhelmed by the influx of drug-trafficking organisations, with enough
production and trafficking simply moved to
arms and cash to challenge security forces and governmental authority.
neighbouring countries.
22
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IISS News
Defence and Military Analysis
The Endgame in Afghanistan British Generals in Blair’s Wars Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry, IISS Senior Fellow
Sir Hew Strachan, one of the editors of British
for Land Warfare, gave a talk on 11 July on
Generals in Blair’s Wars, was joined by General
the prospects for the conflict in Afghanistan.
(Retd) Sir Nick Parker, Deputy Commanding
Barry’s assessments and insights on the
General of Multi-National Force–Iraq in
factors that would influence the future of
2005–6 and Deputy Commander of the ISAF in
Afghanistan were informed by his recent trip
Afghanistan in 2009–10, and Desmond Bowen,
to Kabul, the centrepiece of which was observ-
former policy director of the UK Ministry of
ing President Hamid Karzai and NATO
Defence, on 17 July to discuss the challenges
Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen
of military command during this decade.
announce ‘Milestone 13’, the beginning of the
Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry
final stage of the Afghan transition.
Attended by many of the officers who
Sir Hew Strachan
had contributed essays to British Generals in
In his talk, Barry explored the continuing handover of security from
Blair’s Wars, the presentations and points made from the floor illustrated that
NATO to Afghan leadership by 31 December 2014, analysed the progress of
the growing complexity of modern war increased the challenges faced by com-
the Afghan government’s talks with the Taliban, and provided an in-depth
manders. It also showed that the unpopularity of the wars in Afghanistan and
assessment of the military dimensions of the transition, about which he was
Iraq, the UK’s position as junior partner to the US, inadequate understand-
cautiously optimistic. However, he conceded that the great question mark
ing in Whitehall and poor coordination of UK strategy created unexpected
was long-term political stability and legitimacy. The discussion was chaired
demands on UK forces and commanders. The meeting was chaired by
by Douglas Barrie, IISS Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace.
Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry, IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare.
Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/1aa51dc.
Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/18fTzgF.
The Revolution in Battlefield Medicine and Healthcare for the Wounded On 18 July Brigadier Chris Parker, Royal Army Medical Corps, led a discus-
Oak Hospital in the UK, RAF aero-
sion meeting on the reasons for, and implications of, the improved survival
medical evacuation flights in adapted
rates for seriously injured troops. Although recent combat has been just as
C-17 transports and the use of multi-
intense as in previous land conflicts, and with the added threat of improvised
disciplinary teams of experts have also
explosive devices, the number of soldiers surviving serious injury has dra-
greatly improved both survival and
matically increased.
recovery of seriously injured troops.
Brigadier Parker discussed how the unpopularity of the Iraq and Afghan
The discussion was chaired by Brigadier
wars made reducing troop casualties a political imperative; this resulted
(Retd) Ben Barry, IISS Senior Fellow for
in the development of improved first aid, with high-tech dressings and
Land Warfare.
highly-qualified trauma teams flying to the casualties. Video links with Selly
Brigadier Chris Parker
Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/17OY1SF.
The Impact of Legal Trends on Future Land Operations As the first event in a longer study programme run by the British Army, the IISS hosted a two-part seminar on 22 July on the changing legal environment of land conflict. Fifty serving British Army officers were joined by legal experts to discuss how changes in international and domestic laws might affect future military operations around the world. Topics addressed in the seminar included the implications of technological advances, potential adversary approaches and the nature of human rights norms and laws. The event showed how the well-developed Law of Armed Conflict was now being supplemented by the much less mature body of human-rights law. This was already having consequences for the British military and reinforced the importance of getting basic military skills, such as prisoner handling, right. The seminars were chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies, and Nigel Inkster, IISS Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/1dvB6hs. IISS News
Delegates at the seminar on the changing legal environment of land conflict
SEPTEMBER 2013 | 23
IISS–OBER OI LEC TURE / pRESS LAUNCH
IISS–Oberoi Lecture: Recent Trends in the Global Energy, Oil and Gas Economy Dr Hussain Ibrahim Saleh al-Shahristani, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, spoke on ‘Recent Trends in the Global Energy, Oil and Gas Economy’. ‘Iraq will be the main source of growth for global oil supply over the next
Attendees at the lecture included Mukesh Ambani, Chairman and Managing Director, Reliance Industries Ltd; DK Sarraf, Managing Director, ONGC Videsh Ltd; RS Butola, Chairman, IOC Ltd; Dr Urijt Patel, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India; Prakash Shah, former Indian ambassador to Iraq; PMS Prasad, Executive Director, RIL and MV Kotwal, President - Heavy Enginnering, L&T
decade or two’, he said as he elucidated Iraq’s perspective on energy to lead-
Noting that India’s oil demand is expected to rise by 4–5% annually,
ers of India’s business and financial community at the IISS–Oberoi Lecture in
Dr Shahristani said that India could depend on Iraq to meet its increasing
Mumbai on 14 August.
demand for oil. He also underscored the need to build a long-term part-
Dr Shahristani’s lecture highlighted that by 2040 global energy demand
nership between India and Iraq by exploiting the many new investment
would be about 30% higher than at present. Unconventional sources of gas
opportunities in Iraq, especially in the energy sector. He said that while Iraq’s
would account for a greater part of global oil production than is the case now.
current oil production was at 3.3 million barrels per day, it is likely to increase
The revitalisation of Iraq’s energy sector is crucial for the country’s recon-
to 4–5 million b/d by 2015 and 9 million b/d by 2020. Invoking India and Iraq’s
struction and development, said Dr Shahristani, given that oil generates over
historical ties, he urged Indian companies to invest in Iraq’s efforts to rebuild
90% of government revenues and accounts for about half of GDP.
and expand its energy infrastructure.
Strategic Survey 2013 Press Launch
World affairs are currently characterised by short-
Simon and Adam Ward.
term management and a lack of strategy that derives
The Russian proposal to disarm Syria of its chemical weapons received
partly from a failure of leadership, according to Dr
much attention. Panellists warned, however, that implementing the Russian
John Chipman, Chief Executive and Director-General
proposal would be a difficult and lengthy process. Fitzpatrick, Director of the
of the IISS.
Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme, said: ‘there has never been
Speaking on 12 September at the London press
a situation where the international community has attempted to secure, seize
launch of Strategic Survey 2013: The Annual Review of
and destroy weapons of mass destruction during an ongoing conflict.’ In both
World Affairs, Chipman observed that ‘the abiding
Iraq and Libya, the process had taken years: Libya’s mustard gas had not yet
impression of international affairs in 2013 was of a
been completely destroyed. However, Fitzpatrick said Russia deserved credit
constant flow of events that political leaders, governments, international organisations, opinion-formers and people of all kinds were doing their best simply to manage. It was the year of living tactically.’
for getting Syria to admit to possessing chemical weapons. Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, said the chances of a political solution in Syria had diminished. Following the failure of the international
‘Frustration was regularly expressed about the insolubility of conflicts, the
community to agree on a military response to the 21 August chemical-weapons
iterative management of international tensions and the quick fixes that at best
attack, he said ‘the fighting is going to increase massively and we will prob-
bought time for other unsatisfactory approaches,’ Chipman said. ‘This amounted
ably see even more massacres just because there is a sense right now that there
to a loud lament that strategy, let alone “grand strategy”, was now impossible.’
is no outside help coming.’
This was especially true of the handling of events in Syria, which domi-
According to Fitzpatrick, the Syrian conflict was more complicated for
nated the question and answer session. The IISS panel included Alex Nicoll,
Iran than for the West. He described Syria as Iran’s Vietnam, draining Iran’s
Editor of Strategic Survey, Ben Barry, Mark Fitzpatrick, James Hackett, Emile
economic resources and manpower, and creating divisions in Iranian society.
Hokayem, Nigel Inkster, Nicholas Redman, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Steven 24
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SEPTEMBER 2013
Watch the launch at http://bit.ly/19Fc3ob. IISS News