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December 2014
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The 10th IISS Manama Dialogue 2014
Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa
The dramatic territorial gains in Iraq and Syria made
eration with the governments of Iran and Syria, and
ming from historic differences, the apportioning of
by the terrorist grouping that calls itself the ‘Islamic
even the grouping Hezbollah, in order to secure the
blame for the region’s current problems, and the
State’ in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) framed the debate
ground forces capable of inflicting a decisive defeat
plague of sectarianism.
at the 10th Manama Dialogue, held in Bahrain on
on ISIS. Others, however, were adamant that the
The Crown Prince of Bahrain, Prince Salman bin
5–7 December 2014. The Regional Security Summit
immediacy of the ISIS threat should not cause a
Hamad Al Khalifa, addressed the Dialogue’s open-
brought together senior government and military
shift in their well-established positions regarding
ing dinner with a call for the region and its friends
officials, national-security practitioners, political
the legitimacy of the Assad regime in Syria, and
to move beyond the ‘war on terror’. Today’s chal-
analysts and journalists from the Middle East, Asia,
the terms on which the Iranian nuclear negotiations
lenge, he argued, was to fight a ‘war on theocrats’.
Europe and North America.
could be brought to a satisfactory conclusion.
Thus began a weekend of high-level discussion trying to make sense of a Middle East facing mul-
Delegates reflected on three crises in particu-
As ever, the need to clarify and strengthen the
lar: the multifaceted threat that ISIS posed to the
regional political order attracted much attention.
region; Syria’s civil war; and the ongoing stand-
The desire for progress –which has motivated the
Solutions to the problems of regional order
off over the Iranian nuclear question. In all three
IISS over the course of the last decade to bring
will remain the topic of meetings to come. But this
cases, the Dialogue grappled with the nature of the
together 54 foreign ministers, 16 defence ministers,
Manama Dialogue was also notable for a landmark
threats at hand, their causes and the appropriate
38 chiefs of defence staff and hundreds of leading
in strengthening international support for regional
response. Much of the debate focused on whether
non-governmental analysts – was expressed by
security: namely, the announcement of an agree-
the rise of ISIS—which many delegates referred to
several regional leaders. These are problems whose
ment to put the UK naval presence in Bahrain
using the pejorative label Daesh—changed the cal-
effects cross borders, and which cannot be solved
– and thus ‘east of Suez’, as The Secretary of State
culus regarding the other two security crises. Some
without the cooperation of all regional states. Yet
for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Philip
delegates mooted the possibility of pragmatic coop-
there remains a palpable sense of distrust, stem-
Hammond, noted – on a permanent footing.
tiple crises, many confessional in nature.
MANAMA DIALOGUE
GULF STATES
MIDDLE EAST
FOREIGN POLICY
‘a unified GCC, an integrating Yemen, a stable Iraq and a friendly Iran’. Those four conditions, Chipman said, appeared uncertain then and remain fleeting now. Nevertheless, the Manama Dialogue has in its first ten years given a platform for policy announcements, an occasion for high-level discussion and an opportunity to engage all relevant states simultaneously. It has helped to make the regional security debate more transparent and direct, as well as becoming the venue at which the strategic pulse of the region can most accurately be taken. Today, there is intense diplomatic activity to determine whether a collective approach can be fashioned to meet the multiplying security problems. Ungoverned spaces have widened, and newly governed spaces are under the control of unimaginably dangerous people, Chipman Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa
Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS
stated. Sectarian politics have assumed a geopolitical shape, while regional competition for leadership has intensified.
Predicting that we will be fighting ‘these
The issues raised at the Manama Dialogue,
Speaking at the opening dinner, the Crown
theocrats’ for a very long time, the Crown
Chipman added, demand proper analytical
Prince expressed satisfaction and pride at the
Prince said the question is whether ‘we have
treatment. To help address this, the IISS-Middle
accomplishments of the ten-year period of coop-
the courage and the moral and intellectual
East office will from January 2015 be led by a
eration between Bahrain and the IISS. Noting
integrity to call them out for what they are’.
new Executive Director, Sir John Jenkins, who
that he was not giving a keynote speech as such,
They are people who disregard human life
currently serves as UK Ambassador to Saudi
he wanted to leave one important thought with
and the social order and social contracts upon
Arabia and previously led UK diplomatic mis-
delegates, concerning the naming of the prin-
which human society is established. They are
sions to Libya, Iraq and Syria. Sir John will
cipal threat facing the region. To state we are
people who oppress women and slaughter
deepen IISS relations with regional govern-
engaged in a war on terrorism does not capture
anyone who does not ‘subscribe to their own
ments and the private sector, and under his
the ‘totality of our conflict, or of our strategic
twisted ideology’. While politics may be a
leadership IISS-Middle East will contribute to
direction or threat. Terrorism is merely the tool...
motivation for some of its adherents, it is the
regional policy circles and engage the best and
not an ideology’.
ideology itself that must be combatted. It must
the brightest women and men in the region.
Opening dinner and address
‘We are fighting theocrats’, the Crown Prince
be named, shamed, contained and eventually
said. Such people sully the name and practice
defeated. In closing, he called on delegates to
Opening Televised Panel
of a great tradition and divine philosophy; they
discard the term war on terror and focus on
The panel for the debate, chaired and presented
must be countered holistically, through a combi-
‘the rise of these evil theocracies’.
by Fadila Souissi from Sky News Arabia, fea-
nation of military, social, political and economic
Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and
tured Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa,
policies. The Crown Prince mentioned some
Chief Executive, thanked the Crown Prince for
Bahrain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sameh
earlier efforts to accurately label the threat,
his remarks and the invaluable support he has
Shoukry, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs,
including the invented word of ‘theo-crism’
given to the Manama Dialogue from the outset.
and Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq’s Minister of Finance,
and the moniker ‘fascist theocracy’, but urged
He recalled that, inspired by the early success
together with Seyed Hossein Mousavian, the
delegates to find something more appropriate.
of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in pro-
former head of the Foreign Relations Committee
The failure to do so, he suggested, contributes
moting intergovernmental defence diplomacy,
of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
to a non-holistic policy response, in which we
the IISS had considered how to contribute to
The debate’s main focus was on the threat
‘hop blindly and haphazardly from one threat
wider national security discussions in the Gulf
posed by ISIS and the necessity of regional
to another’.
region, where the states of the Gulf Cooperation
and international cooperation in response to
The Crown Prince referred to the events
Council lacked a forum to meet with their
this challenge. A related question concerned
of 2011 as Arab Storm and said that history
immediate neighbours and the leaders of extra-
Iran’s role in regional security, and whether
will judge as to whether they were akin to the
regional powers.
this was constructive and necessary, or unwelcome and destabilising.
fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 or the Bolshevik
Turning to the state of the region, Chipman
takeover of Russia in 1917. In either case, they
recalled the vision of a secure Gulf that the
There was broad agreement on the panel
precipitated the collapse of state paradigms
Foreign Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi
that military action by Iraqi forces supported by
and created a vacuum in which an extreme ide-
Arabia, His Royal Highness Prince Saud al
a US-led international coalition of western and
ology emerged.
Faisal, laid out at the first Dialogue, involving
Arab states had inflicted substantial damage on
2
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DECEMBER 2014
IISS NEWS
DEFENCE POLICY
IRAN
ISLAMIC STATE
MANAMA DIALOGUE
Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Research Scholar, Princeton University; former Head, Foreign Relations Committee, Supreme National Security Council, Iran; Hoshyar Zebari, Minister of Finance, Iraq; Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt; Sh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain: and Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia
ISIS. Nevertheless, panellists concurred that it
in order to assure its ‘integrity and unity’. In his
thought that such a regional system could have
continued to pose a serious threat to security not
view, the permanent members of the United
‘excellent relations’ with the outside powers
just in Iraq and Syria, but also across the Arab
Nations Security Council and five regional
with interests in the Middle East: Russia, as well
world and perhaps even more widely.
powers needed to agree ‘principles for resolv-
as the United States and NATO.
Mousavian claimed that Iran, which was
ing the Syrian crisis’.
A question-and-answer session involving
reported to have made air-strikes against ISIS
On the question of Iran, Sheikh Khalid was
the audience provided an opportunity for the
in Iraq, was ‘a very serious partner’ in the anti-
implicitly critical of Teheran’s regional role
panellists to clarify their positions on some
terrorist coalition. However, he also asserted
under its present regime, pointing to the ‘posi-
important points. Egypt’s Shoukry claimed that
that the self-styled Islamic State was just one ele-
tive’ part it had played in Gulf security before
there was no possibility of his country, alone or
ment of a broader challenge posed by ‘the rise of
1979, under the Shah. However, he saw the
as part of an international coalition, interven-
extremism’ in the Middle East. In his view, it was
potential for Iran to play a constructive role in
ing directly in the Libyan crisis; however, he
necessary to address the ‘root causes’ of extrem-
the future, perhaps as part of regional maritime
said that it was important for interested outside
ism and for region-wide cooperation between
security arrangements.
parties to unite their efforts to protect Libyans’
the Gulf Cooperation Council, Iran, Iraq and
Zebari admitted that Iran had substantial
ability to determine their future in the face of
Turkey against extremism ‘for decades to come’.
political influence in Iraq – all Iraqi leaders have
Islamist pressures. Iraq’s Zebari emphasized the
Zebari agreed that it was important ‘to tackle
‘close ties with Iran’, he said - but emphasised
need for ‘more democracy’ and stronger insti-
the motivation behind Daesh’ in order to ‘eradi-
that this did not amount to Iranian ‘control’ of
tutions in regional states, and for the protection
cate’ the movement. This could only be achieved
his country: it was ‘the Iraqi people and elected
of Christians and other religious minorities, as
by comprehensive regional cooperation, with
government’, not Iran, who made decisions. He
well as greater cooperation among Arab states
international support, involving financial and
thought that Iraq could play a useful role as a
against terrorism. Mousavian pointed to the
political, as well as military, dimensions. He saw
‘bridge’ between Iran on one side and the Arab
danger of ‘a failed region’ if regional states did
it as particularly necessary to stop foreign vol-
states and West on the other.
not unite to manage the present challenges.
unteers from Western countries going to fight
Mousavian said ‘Iran is accused of every-
for ISIS and to cut off international financial
thing’, but pointed to the Arab world’s ‘decades
First Plenary Session: Strategic Priorities In
support for the terrorists. Shoukry emphasised
of problems’. Iran had not interfered in Egypt,
The Middle East
the importance of eradicating the ‘culture’ of
Libya and Tunisia, where the previous regimes
Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s
ISIS, which used ‘the alibi of religion’ to pursue
had all collapsed due to domestic pressures. He
foreign minister, opened the first plenary ses-
political goals. He argued that it was necessary
argued that it was important for Iran to be part
sion by identifying two challenges that he
to challenge the discourse of ISIS.
of a ‘regional cooperation system’ that could
argued should be regional priorities. First, that
Zebari asserted the importance of cooperat-
help find solutions to the crises in Lebanon,
some unaffiliated terrorist groups had achieved
ing with the Syrian government, because the
Syria and Yemen. Dialogue between Iran and
an unprecedented level of scale and serious-
civil war in Syria had ‘directly influenced Iraq’s
Saudi Arabia was ‘undoubtedly important’ in
ness; ISIS in particular now holds vast territory,
internal situation’. Mousavian argued that a
any region-wide initiative, which he admitted
money and military equipment. Second, that
‘power-sharing solution’ was necessary in Syria,
might take ’10 or 20 years’ to come to fruition. He
states were still prominent in sponsoring ter-
IISS NEWS
DECEMBER 2014 | 3
MANAMA DIALOGUE
UNITED KINGDOM
MIDDLE EAST
IRAQ
BAHRAIN
Sh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain
Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt
Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK
rorism or engaging directly in terrorist acts;
gested that states should modernise and
Peace and National Partnership Agreement.
he pointed to Hezbollah as an example of the
integrate, rejecting hegemony and conducting
It was also important not to give up on efforts
former and the Syrian regime’s use of barrel
dialogue on the basis of mutual respect. It was
to forge an agreement between Israel and the
bombs as an example of the latter. Tackling
necessary, he averred, to adopt comprehen-
Palestinians, which requires bold leadership on
these challenges will be neither easy nor quick,
sive solutions and to view security broadly, as
both sides.
Sheikh Khalid said. A comprehensive approach
well as tackling all terrorist groups rather than
is needed, embracing military efforts, financial
focusing solely on ISIS.
In the debate that followed, Professor Francois Heisbourg, chair of the IISS Council,
Philip Hammond, the UK’s foreign secre-
asked the panel about the tension between Gulf
tary, used his address to restate his country’s
and western objectives regarding the threat of
Sheikh Khalid noted that some regional
commitment to Gulf security. He argued that
ISIS and the Syrian civil war, as most regional
progress on these fronts had already been made,
there was a strong commonality of interest
powers wanted to see the back of the Assad
in particular the recent Manama Declaration
between London and the Gulf capitals on secu-
regime but it was potentially a valuable part-
on Combating the Financing of Terrorism.
rity, prosperity and stability. The just-signed
ner in the fight against ISIS. He also asked the
However, he added that the ambitions of some
agreement to re-establish a permanent naval
speakers to comment on the proposal by Seyed
regional powers to dominate the region stoked
presence in Bahrain was a clear statement of the
Hossein Mousavian, the former head of the
distrust and hindered cooperation. He went on
UK’s commitment to a presence East of Suez,
foreign relations committee of Iran’s National
to criticise Iran for interfering in the affairs of
he said. Mr Hammond stressed the collective
Security Council, of P5+5 talks to resolve the
some regional states.
nature of the GCC-Western effort to halt the
Syrian crisis. Sheikh Khalid rejected the notion,
Egypt’s foreign minister, Sameh Shoukry,
advance of ISIS in Iraq. He identified further
as it involved mixing the separate issues of
echoed the theme of distrust as a factor that
steps that would be needed to achieve victory:
Syria’s civil war with the challenge posed by
hindered cooperation among regional states.
the enhanced use of ground forces; the estab-
terrorism across the region. Mr Hammond
His own review of the region’s main chal-
lishment of stable, legitimate self-sufficient
added that there was little point in adopting
lenges and strategic priorities focused on
governments in Iraq and Syria (specifically
new formats if the participants did not share
domestic challenges caused by economic
excluding Bashar al-Assad); building a culture
a single view of the way forward, and P5+5
slowdown, population growth and contested
to marginalise extremism, including through
would not have consensus on the question of
national identity; the activity of extremists
the empowerment of moderates in the Gulf
Assad’s future. Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar,
in exploiting socio-economic dislocation and
and abroad; and enhancing broader counter-
deputy secretary for political affairs to the vice-
sectarian difference, sometimes with state
terrorism efforts, including initiatives to stem
president of Indonesia, asked how Egypt would
support; and the destabilising effects of the
terrorist financing.
manage its relations with smaller powers. In
sanctions and a drive to win the theological battle against militancy.
difficulty in arriving at a two-state solution to
Looking beyond the ISIS challenge, Mr
response, Mr Shoukry said that Egypt did not
the Palestinian issue. Mr Shoukry called for the
Hammond stressed the importance of patience
aspire to lead either from the front or from
revival of the Arab peace initiative, with the
in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme,
behind, but rather was determined to work in
support of the UN Security Council, to move
to ensure that a deal will fully meet interna-
unision with other Arab states to realise their
towards the creation of a viable Palestinian
tional concerns. He called for pan-regional
shared goals and ambitions. Egypt has no
state. To tackle the other challenges, he sug-
cooperation, involving Iran, to support Yemen’s
expansionist agenda, he added.
4
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DECEMBER 2014
IISS NEWS
INSURGENCY
FRANCE
IRAQ
MANAMA DIALOGUE
Second Plenary Session: Iraq, Syria and Regional Security Dr Ibrahim Al Jaafari, Iraq’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, focused entirely on the challenge of confronting ISIS, which is without question Iraq’s most significant security challenge. ISIS, he argued, is a departure from Iraq’s long history of a moderate Islam and tolerance. The battle to confront it will need to be global and generational, he said, drawing a comparison to the 30 Years War in 17th century Europe. The minister noted that ISIS recruits young people from all over the world, including from Western democracies. It is vital to produce a cultural antithesis or antidote to ISIS. That antidote, he said, should be respect for human rights. Al Jaafari called for a global mobilization against ISIS, including the creation of an equivalent to the Second World War alliance of the Soviet Union with the US, Britain and France.
Dr Ibrahim Al Jaafari, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Iraq
Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France
lead such an effort, since it has strong relation-
into a caliphate, threatening the entire region.
without a political process in Syria. He also said
ships throughout the region, including with
Unlike al Qaeda, ISIS combines ideological
that Iran cannot be a partner in this effort when
Iran and the GCC countries.
extremist terrorism and traditional military
Iran and its proxies are interfering and acting as
The Iraqi government has attempted to
tactics. He noted the alarming fact that other
an occupying power in Syria. Sheikh Abdullah
deal with the social basis of ISIS by forming a
extremist groups in other regions have declared
suggested that western states did not match the
government that represents all of the country’s
allegiance to ISIS.
Gulf states in the determination to fight terror-
Adversaries should come together, he argued. The minister said that Iraq was well placed to
groups. The minister called on the international
The minister stressed the global aspects
ism. He pointed out that European states were
community to do more to support his country
of the current crisis. He said that 1,100 French
much more tolerant of hate speech than their
militarily, since it is the spearhead of the fight
nationals had participated in jihad in Syria,
Gulf counterparts, and added that while west-
against ISIS. Iraq needs weapons, logistics,
and 370 fought for ISIS. France has committed
ern states were mostly concerned with weapons
training, and intelligence. Al Jaafari expressed
15 fighter planes to the air campaign against
and finance, the states of the Gulf region are
Iraq’s gratitude for the sacrifice and support of
ISIS. While noting the success of some opera-
engaged in a fight for their culture, religion and
those countries which have supported the effort
tions thus far, Le Drian argued that air strikes
very existence.
against ISIS. He called for sustained efforts to
alone would not resolve the problem; only the
The rest of the discussion centred on the
find common ground in the region and to focus
determination of the people of Iraq and the
challenges of bringing communities into the
on the ISIS threat.
countries of the region to staunch the flow of
battle against ISIS and counter-radicalisation,
Jean-Yves Le Drian, the Minister of Defence
political and financial support to ISIS will make
specifically concerning the role of social media
of France, focused on ISIS from the perspective
success possible. The anti-ISIS effort must focus
in promoting extremism.
of an outside power that has a long history in
on building sustainable state institutions and
the region. As he put it, ‘We are not from this
inclusive national identity that embraces all citi-
Third Plenary Session: Countering Extremism
region but this region is not foreign to us.’ He
zens. In this context, Le Drian noted, the violent,
in the Middle East
called for a regional coalition against terrorism
sectarian regime of Bashar al Assad bears much
In the third plenary session, Dr Nizar Madani,
that simultaneously shows respect for Islam,
responsibility for the ascent of ISIS.
Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign
but added that the crisis had extra-regional
Le Drian characterised the French intervention
Affairs, argued that the GCC had proven
impacts and thus was a matter for the entire
in Mali, and the ongoing 4,000-troop commit-
stronger and more resourceful than many
international community.
ment to the country, as an example of an effort
‘cynics’ had expected. Despite challenges and
Le Drian noted that the crisis is the Middle
that did pay off. He closed with a warning that
scepticism, perseverance has been ‘the rock on
East began over a decade ago with the September
various terrorist and extremist groups from the
which we relied.’ The organisation’s priority has
2001 terror attacks on the US. It is a complex
horn of Africa through the Middle East and into
been security, for without security there is no
regional crisis that feeds on state weakness,
Asia could become interconnected. The interna-
freedom or prosperity, he insisted. And despite
hatreds, extremism and social marginalisation.
tional community must prevent their unification.
numerous challenges, growth and employment
Today, the Jihadi threat is two-headed, with al
The discussion period began with an inter-
rates have soared. The future of the GCC would
Qaeda still maintaining branches throughout
vention by Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al
rely on three dimensions: local, regional and
the Gulf, while ISIS has 20,000-30,000 fight-
Nahyan, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the
international. For the local dimension, the GCC
ers and aspires to build its territorial holdings
UAE. He stated that ISIS cannot be defeated
members themselves needed to build upon their
IISS NEWS
DECEMBER 2014 | 5
MANAMA DIALOGUE
YEMEN
SAUDI ARABIA
COUNTER TERRORISM
In regard to Yemen, two delegates, from Lebanon and the UAE, spoke to the difficulty of putting into force political agreements meant to end the conflict with Houthis. There seemed to be no will either from the Houthis or Yemen’s president to implement the agreements, according to one of the delegates. Unless respected and implemented the country would fall back into civil strife. And the overriding question, she argued, was how to close off Iran’s influence in Yemeni affairs. Dr Nicholas Redman of the IISS meanwhile focused on what Gulf neighbors might do to ease the country’s economic difficulties. Given that these countries are wealthy and employ foreign labour, and that Yemen is poor and populace, couldn’t there be a use for the latter’s surplus labour, even if it means Yemen will be a remittance economy? Al Ahmadi focused in his responses on the problem of implementing peace agreements.
Dr Nizar Madani, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia
Major General Ali Al Ahmadi, Chief, National Security Bureau, Yemen
own rich and diversified experience. Regionally,
tral cause’ of Middle East turmoil, because, in
from Sanaa and have gone back to fighting. Iran,
future stability requires building constructive
his words, ‘Israeli tyranny’ has been ‘exploited
he added, has continued to play a malign role,
relations with neighbouring countries, which
by many including al Qaeda.’
supporting the rebels with money and arms.
Implementation has been stymied by discord, he said, and Houthis have refused to withdraw
in turn should avoid meddling in the internal
In discussion, three delegates focused on
affairs of others and backing sectarian militias.
Saudi relations with Iran and the problem of
Fourth Plenary Session: Collective approaches
Madani specified that he was talking about Iran,
Sunni extremism. On the latter, David Roberts
to current security issues
‘an important country’ that ‘has the right to be
of Kings College London argued that Saudi
Given recent divisions among the states of the
a key player in the region’, but only if it serves
Arabia was ‘in denial’ about the sources of
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), collective
stability rather than strife. In the international
extremism in its own Wahhabi fundamental-
approaches to security are an issue of great cur-
dimension, there was the dire need for collective
ism. Another critical question was posed by
rency. The GCC Secretary General, Dr Abdullatif
efforts to counter terrorism. To do so, however,
Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq’s Minister of Finance,
Al Zayani, highlighted the inherent difficulties
required addressing the link between terrorist
who challenged the Saudi position towards
in having multiple parties work in harmony.
movements and humanitarian crises in Syria,
Iran. Iran is an important neighboring country,
He identified three factors that are necessary for
Palestine, Libya and elsewhere.
Zebari insisted, and it is a ‘primordial principle
this process: participation should be as inclusive
General Ali Al Ahmadi, the chief of Yemen’s
of dialogue’ that it should take place between
and comprehensive as possible; discussions
National Security Bureau, spoke on a day when
countries that disagree rather than those who
should be supported by a consultation process
two hostages held by an al Qaeda affiliated
agree. Zebari asked whether there a possibil-
by relevant parties; and there should be effective
group died during an operation to free them.
ity of a renewed dialogue as in the days of
implementation of any process involving coor-
Against this tragic backdrop, Ahmadi noted that
Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami? Other
dinated regional and international strategies.
Yemen was among the countries most damaged
delegates questioned whether the Gulf needed
Al Zayani was sceptical that Gulf states had
by terrorism. The government was fighting hard
to deal with Iran, whose policies in Lebanon,
devised necessary implementation mechanisms,
against the terrorists, had launched damaging
Syria and Iraq were portrayed as stoking sec-
as they are often overwhelmed by temporary
operations including air strikes against them,
tarianism and thus boosting recruitment to
challenges. But there were positive signs: Saudi
and had worked with foreign partners includ-
ISIS.
Arabia had suggested an international counterterrorism centre, and pledged $100m in support.
ing the US with joint operations and the sharing
Madani in response said that Saudi Arabia
of intelligence. However, the rapid rise of ISIS
agreed with dialogue as a matter of prin-
Canada’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, John
in Iraq and Syria dictated caution in making
ciple, but believed that success required some
Baird, noted that most challenges in the Gulf
assessments about the future of any terrorist
common denominators. Trust and transpar-
region are driven by sectarianism and that
threat and how close it was to being defeated.
ency were prerequisites before starting any
sectarian divisions were being exploited by
In Yemen, meanwhile, civil strife continued. The
dialogue, he said. Above all, ‘countries should
‘sinister state actors’ and ‘nefarious non-state
general blamed rebellious Houthis for violations
not interfere in other countries’ internal affairs.’
actors’, with Iran’s support for Shia militias an
causing the almost total disintegration of peace
He also rejected the charge of a link between
example. For Baird, the answer to such sectari-
efforts. Whereas most of his prepared remarks
Saudi religious practice and the ideology that
anism is pluralism.
focused on Yemen’s difficulties, he concluded
fuels ISIS: ‘the Islamic religion is innocent of
by identifying the Palestinian issue as the ‘cen-
these acts.’
6
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DECEMBER 2014
According to Baird, globalisation ensures that what happens in the Middle East resonates IISS NEWS
CANADA
UNITED KINGDOM
MANAMA DIALOGUE
Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf
John Baird, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Canada
Michael Fallon, Secretary of State for Defence, UK
around the globe. Thus, the need for collec-
a concern, as well as Iran’s nuclear programme
the new Iraqi army should have support right
tive action could not be greater. Ultimately,
which Baird concluded was designed to deliver
across Iraqi society.
however, extremism and sectarianism cannot
a nuclear weapons capability.
Chipman concluded the session by question-
be countered with just military power, Baird
Zayani then spoke about the steps needed to
ing whether the oft-heard call for tackling the
argued. Economic stability and dynamism are
make a breakthrough in relations between Iran
root causes was a recipe for delay and inaction:
necessary to empower people and ensure long-
and its Gulf neighbours. Firstly, it should act
‘I wonder sometimes whether we are making
term prosperity.
to resolve its territorial dispute with the UAE
the analytically perfect the enemy of the politi-
Michael Fallon, the UK Secretary of State for
concerning three islands that Iran has occupied.
cally necessary.’ Understanding the proximate
Defence, claimed the world is in an ‘unpreced-
Secondly, it should facilitate the withdrawal of
causes, he explained, and tackling them ‘with
ently dangerous’ situation. In this environment,
Hizbullah from Syria, where it is responsible
vigour, enthusiasm, clarity, fairness and good
the UK retains the political will and the military
for the death of many Syrians. Iran’s good faith
governance’ might be enough ‘to help stabilise
capabilities to intervene--despite a parliamen-
could only be impressed upon the region by
this very complex world in which we live’.
tary vote in 2013 rejecting military strikes in
bold steps, he said. Fifth Plenary Session: Reflections on Ten
Syria. Fallon identified some relevant histori-
Fallon concluded by answering questions
cal lessons: first, that liberty is underpinned by
from Zaid Belbagi of the Prince Salman Centre
Years of Regional Security Changes
credible armed forces that are ready to deploy
for Innovative Government and Neil Hawkins,
Opening this final session, Mark Fitzpatrick,
rapidly and at scale. Second, partnerships are
Australia’s Ambassador to Bahrain, Oman,
Director
vital. Moreover, although there is plenty of
Saudi Arabia and Yemen. These concerned
Disarmament Programme at the IISS, traced
scope for the use of soft power in the Gulf, there
whether the military operation against ISIS had
the evolution of Iran’s nuclear programme
is no substitute for hard power. A possible final
to be at a similar scale to the 1991 operation to
over ten years. Iran now has a stockpile of low-
lesson is that the more secure the Gulf states are,
liberate Kuwait; whether western states had
enriched uranium that is sufficient to make up
the more secure the West remains.
of
the
Non-Proliferation
and
the appetite for such an undertaking; and the
to six bombs, if further enriched. The interim
In the debate that followed, Seyed Hossein
importance for western public opinion of seeing
deal agreed in 2013 resembled a ceasefire, in
Mousavian, formerly Iran’s chief nuclear nego-
a strong, active Gulf presence within the US-led
which Iran agreed to stop the production of near
tiator, berated Baird for ‘spending your time in
coalition. Fallon said that it would take an effort
highly enriched uranium, and cap the number
palaces and luxury hotels fighting ISIS’ while the
on a par with the 1991 Gulf War, and that with
of centrifuges, in exchange for no new sanctions.
Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani, was risking
50 states involved the enterprise was scaling
Tehran’s late-2014 deal with Russia to provide
his life on the front line. Why, Mousavian asked,
upwards. He confirmed that GCC involvement
enriched uranium for eight new reactors elimi-
was Canada more aggressive towards Iran than
was very helpful for Western governments to
nated the practical need for Iran to have an
even the US? What lay behind this position?
justify their involvement to their electorates.
enrichment programme of its current size. The
Baird responded that Canada wanted Iran to
He confirmed that airpower alone could not
country’s insistence of preserving it was due
play a major regional role, but was disturbed by
defeat ISIS, and pointed to the reconstitution
to pride but also a desire to have the option of
its backing for Shia militias in Iraq and its sup-
of the Iraqi army and the creation of a national
developing nuclear weapons. The key to a deal
port for terrorist groups in nearly every Middle
guard as evidence that the ground component
lay in whether Iran was willing to put this hedg-
Eastern state. Its human-rights record was also
was being build up. It was vital, he said, that
ing strategy ‘on ice’.
IISS NEWS
DECEMBER 2014 | 7
MANAMA DIALOGUE
TERRORISM AND SECURITY
GEOPOLITICS
Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme, IISS; Dr Bassma Kodmani, Executive Director, Arab Reform Initiative; Dr John Chipman, DirectorGeneral and Chief Executive, IISS; General The Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, Senior Adviser, IISS; former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK; and Jamal Khashoggi, General Manager, Al Arab News Channel
Dr Bassma Kodmani, the Executive Director of the Arab Reform Initiative, discussed Syria
effective under fire it is vital to have good com-
one of which was the Islamic State, managed to
mand and control.
seize large amounts of territory.’
within the context of broader societal dynam-
Jamal Khashoggi, General Manager of the Al
Dr Ayman Safadi, the former Deputy Prime
ics. The governance of diverse societies was, she
Arab News Channel, noted that the danger from
Minister of Jordan, suggested that the current
said, key to state security and stability; poor gov-
ISIS was real; it was, he said, not an army but an
strategy was a result of Western misunderstand-
ernance of diversity led to fragmented societies.
idea ‘that feeds on our failures.’ He argued that
ing and Arab complacency, and was doomed to
The reassertion of a strong military role in Egypt
most analysts and governments had failed to
fail for these reasons. In particular, he argued,
in 2011 marked a turning point for regional poli-
notice the rise of ISIS because of the post-2011
the focus on Iraq—even if taken to a successful
tics, putting the accent on security solutions to
focus on Iran and Iraq. ISIS was a radical group
conclusion—would allow ISIS to regenerate in
the challenge of extremism. The advance of ISIS
that flourished because of bad governance, poor
Syria. Richards agreed with his analysis, saying
in Iraq, and the focus this received from regional
education and social injustice. When the Arab
that he disapproved of the incremental approach
and foreign powers, meant that the situation in
Spring began in 2011, some states accommo-
towards ISIS, which cedes the strategic intiative.
Syria was becoming more complex. There was
dated demands for more freedom and justice;
Syria was vital, Richards argued, and there had
no strategy for Syria, Kodmani argued, and it
the states that chose instead to rely on old meth-
to be a regional grand strategy.
was not clear which opposition forces would
ods provided a fertile ground for ISIS.
Kodmani tackled another question from
be trained and how would they be vetted. A
In response to a question from Seyed Hossein
Safadi, who had suggested that the moderate
strategy was needed to define reliable groups,
Mousavian about the possibility of improved
opposition in Syria had disappeared. They still
she said.
relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Jamal
exist, she replied, but had no space to operate
General the Lord Richards of Herstmonceux,
Khashoggi said he was pessimistic for three
at present. The media focus is squarely on ISIS,
formerly the UK’s Chief of Defence Staff, offered
reasons: Iran’s role in Syria; the fact that ISIS is
while they have not received the funding that
a critique of recent military engagements in the
an Arab failure and must be fixed by the Arabs;
foreign states have given to armed groups. Only
region: ‘lots of policy masquerading as strategy,
and because ISIS is a Sunni problem that will
the US has the ability to enforce coherence on the
and certainly lots of tactics, but few joined-up,
become more complex if Iran is involved.
various donors in support of a single strategy.
long-term plans that successfully synthesise
Dr Toby Dodge, IISS Senior Consulting
In closing, Fitzpatrick was pessimistic about
strategic ends, ways and means, the essence of
Fellow for the Middle East, took issue with
the chances for an agreement with Iran. He
a strategy.’ States that want to achieve strategic
Khashoggi’s assertion that the population of
thought western states would act militarily if
success, he argued, have to be fully committed
Mosul embraced ISIS when its fighters seized
Iran got too close to nuclear capability, and for
to the cause. Western experiences in Iraq and
control of the city. He argued that there was
that reason Iran would stop short of acquiring a
Afghanistan had left political leaders reluctant
insufficient data to support such a conclusion.
weapon. He rejected suggestions that Iran was
to risk similar outcomes and led to other solu-
Rather, he suggested, it would be more sus-
justified in refusing to give up its enrichment
tions, particularly operations using local or
tainable to suggest that ‘the generalised revolt
capability in favour of imports. In particular,
proxy forces. The GCC states could create a mil-
that we saw spread across the northwest of Iraq
he criticised the argument that Iran’s sunk costs
itarily efficient joint command to tackle future
from… 2012 through 2013–2014 created the
impelled it to continue down the route of self-
challenges together, he argued, although to be
arena within which five or six insurgent groups,
sufficiency as fundamentally flawed.
8
|
DECEMBER 2014
IISS NEWS
DEFENCE POLICY
DEFENCE ECONOMICS
GULF STATES
MANAMA DIALOGUE
Special Session 1: IRAN AND THE REGION BEYOND THE NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS The specific mandate of this rich and conten-
the content. A number of participants regretted
faceted threat to regional security, not only
tious session proved difficult to fulfil. When
the absence of an Arab state in the negotia-
through its support to revolution but through
participants did manage to leave the nuclear
tions (or its lack of transparency towards Arab
its conventional, cyber and ballistic missile
issue behind, they often proved unwilling
states), and were apprehensive of possible out-
capabilities, and its disruptive potential in the
to move beyond the divisions which have
comes of the parallel bilateral US-Iranian track.
Strait of Hormuz. These are matched by a sub-
plagued attempts to establish a new and more
These concerns underpinned a broader
stantial (and supposedly Asian-pivot-proof) US
Gulf unease that the US was, firstly, failing
presence in the Gulf, consisting of advanced
Participants gathered soon after the nego-
to recognise Iranian stalling tactics, and, sec-
hardware and more than 35,000 personnel.
tiations between Iran and the P5+1 powers had
ondly, moving to reach a regional settlement
All agreed that no enduring solution
been extended by seven months. They heard
with Iran over the heads of other parties. Even
to the problems of regional political order
updates on outstanding issues, including
stronger were Gulf participants’ complaints
can be reached without the involvement of
matters of verification and transparency, and
about Iranian interference in others’ domes-
Iran. But just as problematic as the polit-
finding mutually acceptable parameters for
tic politics. Iran’s commitment to exporting
ical-military stand-off in the region is the
Iranian fuel-cycle capacity. In fact, the format
revolution was described by one participant
inheritance of mutual distrust, reinforced by
of the negotiations was of as much interest as
as part of a two-pronged foreign policy which
contemporary developments, that prevents
also supposedly pledges
real Gulf–Iran dialogue from taking place.
non-interference.
stable regional order.
This
Here, the gap between two images of Iran –
was greeted with the
either as a putative hegemon seeking nuclear
counter-accusation that
weapons, exporting sectarianism and desta-
Gulf states are to blame
bilising its neighbours, or as an encircled,
for the jihadist scourge
defensive victim – was palpable. Yet so too
of today’s Middle East.
was the reluctance of all parties to take the nec-
It was argued that Iran
Army Day Parade, Tehran, 2013 (Behrouz Mehri/AFP/Getty)
poses
a
multi-
essary first steps, in political terms, towards a comprehensive regional settlement.
Special Session 2: REGIONAL COUNTERTERRORISM AND COUNTER RADICALISATION POLICIES Participants agreed that defeating terrorism
lapse because it creates a vacuum
involves a sustained, multi-front effort in the
in which terrorists can thrive.
region and beyond, not least because an esti-
There was some disagreement
mated 16,000-18,000 of ISIS’s fighters are foreign.
over whether the Syrian state
Tackling the ISIS threat requires military action,
could be saved, or whether it had
efforts to disrupt its recruitment and revenue
already collapsed.
(especially through organised criminal activ-
Counter-radicalisation efforts
ity) and to challenge its extremist ideology. A
are focused in large part on an
solid legal framework is part of the solution, but
effort by more than 60 states to
it was pointed out that the support of Western
challenge the ideology, religious
states may be difficult to sustain over the next
authority and narrative of extrem-
decade or more, if anti-terrorism laws are used
ist groups. ISIS’ discourse of
in some regional states to curb the activity of
inevitable victory followed by a utopian future
Western governments face a dilemma
opposition forces as well as extremists.
A video grab of an Islamic State militant in Syria, September 2014 (Getty/AFP)
stands at odds with the reality that many vol-
regarding their nationals who have fought in
States have successfully formulated and
unteers will either die or be arrested, and this
Syria and Iraq. A number of them are disil-
implemented counterterrorism plans in the
is something governments could exploit. Video
lusioned and would like to return home, but
past, but often old lessons are forgotten and
of atrocities in Syria and Iraq, committed by
they fear arrest. These young people could be
states tend to overreact in the face of a new
Sunni and Shia militants, have radicalised
useful to establish a counter narrative to the
threat. Success depends on the state quickly
young people in both communities rapidly; it is
ISIS message, but only if they are handled care-
correcting its stance, adopting an all-govern-
not only a Sunni/ISIS phenomenon. Some par-
fully. Although it is important to combat and
ment approach that improves governance, and
ticipants stressed that the brutality of the Syrian
defeat extremism ideologically, that is not the
so steadily reducing the terrorist threat to the
government towards its own population was a
whole solution. As one participant remarked,
point where it becomes a law-and-order prob-
driver of radicalism; others drew attention to
many of the young recruits are malleable and
lem. Looking at regional conflicts, participants
the negative impact of the aggressively sectar-
seek excitement; winning the theological argu-
agreed that it was important to avoid state col-
ian policies of the Maliki government in Iraq.
ment alone will not deliver victory.
IISS NEWS
DECEMBER 2014 | 9
MANAMA DIALOGUE
FOREIGN POLICY
CONFLICT PREVENTION
MILITARY COOPERATION
Special Session 3: PREVENTING STATE FAILURE: HUMANITARIAN AND GEOPOLITICAL APPROACHES Worries about state failure and the possibil-
before an intervention is
ity of regional failure pervaded the Dialogue
undertaken. The post-2001 trend
and were addressed directly in this session. The experience of two decades of UN-led
of
interventions in failed or failing states yielded
problems of the Middle
four lessons. Firstly, a series of UN Human
East attracted particular
Development Reports, written by Arab aca-
criticism, because a weak
demics, had identified the weaknesses in Arab
state is deficient in three
states, specifically corruption and repression,
main
that resulted in state failure in Syria, Iraq, Yemen
legitimacy and capacity.
and Libya. Efforts to rebuild and strengthen
Securitisation leads to over concentration on
states should therefore focus on empowering
the first shortcoming, creating a high level of
The debate on Iraq generated several
parliaments, rebuilding competent courts and
dependency between the exogenous supplier
perspectives. Firstly, that the present crisis
defending personal freedoms. This was vital to
of security and the consuming state. The EU
originated in a political process that was started
restore trust between state and society.
has started to learn this lesson; only five of its
under occupation. Secondly, that the 2003 inva-
38 missions are primarily military in focus.
sion was a catalyst for the Arab revolutions of
Secondly, intervening powers should not
‘securitising’
areas:
the
security,
Syrian Kurdish refugees moving into Turkey (EC/ECHO)
likely to be productive.
use excessive coercion or pursue a victor’s jus-
The panel then want on to examine both
2011, by encouraging democracy in the region.
tice. De-Ba’athifcation in Iraq and the Political
Syria and Iraq. The Syrian crisis was multifac-
However, the failure to provide adequate secu-
Isolation Law in Libya have played central
eted and existed at the local, national, regional
rity for six months after the invasion led to a
roles in destabilising the new political settle-
and
simultaneously.
division of society between those fighting the
ments. Thirdly, the international community
There were very high levels of mistrust at all
occupation and those wishing to democratise. It
has to act with speed when faced with the
of these levels. Opposition forces at the local
is necessary, particpants agreed, to enable indig-
prospect of state failure: intervention in the
and national levels are so fractured that they
enous local actors to drive the reconstitution of
Balkans came too late. Finally, there is a need
cannot be dealt with as a single entity. For this
state power and legitimacy, in partnership with
for effective, detailed, long-range planning
reason, the Geneva Two process was never
the international community.
international
levels
Special Session 4: REGIONAL MILITARY COOPERATION The region is faced presently with a binary
while several European nations are taking part
army that can provide the basis of the required
challenge: the pressing need to cooperate to
in the US air operations in Iraq.
ground campaign, this is not the case in Syria.
defeat ISIS and the long-term issue of crafting
The challenge of ISIS, by its very nature
military cooperation to provide an effective
a pan-regional threat, requires that it be
and self-sustaining security architecture.
will also require time.
countered militarily and ideologically on a
Looking beyond the huge challenge posed
The overriding immediate security concern
multi-national basis. Achieving this will prob-
by ISIS, the region remains some way from
for the region, and beyond, is confronting and
ably be the work of a generation. The pacing of
supporting an adequate cooperative security
defeating ISIS, with several regional nations
the military aspects of a counter-strategy, how-
arrangement to provide collective defence.
involved actively in supporting the US-led
ever, may pose potential difficulties for some
Within the Gulf Cooperation Council there is
campaign. Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and
local states: have their respective militaries the
still a considerable gap between ambition and
the United Arab Emirates have contributed to
capacity to sustain prolonged operations, and
actual capacity. There are doubts, for example,
the US air campaign to strike at ISIS in Syria,
may wider pressures risk stressing their civil
as to whether the GCC command and control
societies? The emergence of
infrastructure is robust and resilient enough to
ISIS has forced nations in
meet the kinds of threats it may actually face.
the region to re-assess intraregional cooperation.
Kurdish Peshmerga paramililtary (Sadikgulec/Dreamstime)
10
Bolstering moderate opposition forces in Syria
|
DECEMBER 2014
The existence of an external security guarantor , the US, is re-assuring but paradoxically
The military defeat of
it may undercut local efforts to improve genu-
ISIS in Iraq will presage
inely regional capacity. The back-stop of US
a shift in the emphasis of
military might ironically acts as a brake on the
the military campaign to
impetus to develop an independent regional
Syria. This will present fresh
capability. There remains also the long-stand-
problems, for while Iraq
ing issue of Iran and how any regional security
retains at least a notionally
architecture could manage or perhaps even
functioning – if degraded –
accommodate relations with Tehran.
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
GEO-ECONOMICS
INDIA GLOBAL FORUM
SOUTH ASIA
The India Global Forum 2014 The IISS and the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), India, jointly convened the India Global Forum 2014 in New Delhi on 9–10 November 2014. The IGF opened with a keynote address by India’s Minister of Finance and Defence Mr Arun Jaitley. Mr Jaitley explained the political significance of the 2014 elections to the Indian parliament, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi forming the first single-party majority government in India since 1989. Mr Jaitley outlined India’s economic and fiscal policies, emphasising the urgency of reviving India’s growth momentum and reviving investor sentiment at home and abroad. He emphasised the importance of India’s new ’Make in India’ campaign aimed at promoting the growth of manufacturing, including in the defence sector. He claimed his most important contribution as defence minister was the decision to permit foreign direct investment (FDI) in defence manufacturing. The four plenary sessions that followed focused on India’s external
Arun Jaitley, India’s Minister of Finance and Defence, opened the India Global Forum with a keynote address
economic policies and the role of Indian and foreign enterprise in India’s growth process. Speakers said the deceleration in commodity prices
of Industrial Policy and Promotion, India; Lars-Olof Lindgren, Chairman,
afforded India an opportunity to revive growth, that India was commit-
SAAB Technologies India; Phil Shaw, Chief Executive, Lockheed
ted to the successful completion of the Doha Round of multilateral trade
Martin India; Flavio S. Damico, Director, Department of Inter-Regional
negotiations and that India would remain actively engaged in the Asian
Mechanisms, Ministry of External Affairs, Brazil; Tadashi Maeda, Senior
economic community building process. Plenary session speakers included
Managing Director, Japan Bank for International Cooperation; Wenguang
Suresh Prabhu, Prime Minister Modi’s G-20 Sherpa and the newly
Shao, Senior Europe Advisor, Phoenix Satellite Television Holdings and
appointed Minister for Railways; Nirmala Sitharaman, India’s minister of
Consulting Senior Fellow for China and International Relations, IISS;
commerce and industry; Yasutoshi Nishimura, Senior Vice-Minister of the
Saumitra Chaudhuri, Former Member, Planning Commission, India;
Cabinet Office, Japan; Klaus Regling, Chief Executive Officer, European
Nigel Inkster, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS;
Financial Stability Facility and Managing Director, European Stability
Baroness Pauline Neville-Jones, Former Minister of State for Security
Mechanism; Dino Patti Djalal, Deputy Foreign Minister, Indonesia; Felipe
and Counter-Terrorism, UK; Hardeep Singh Puri, Secretary General,
Larraín Bascuñán, Former Minister of Finance, Chile and Senior Adviser,
Independent Commission on Multilateralism; Douglas H. Wise, Deputy
IISS; Sheikh Mohammed Bin Essa Al Khalifa, Advisor for Political
Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, US; Mohamad Maliki Bin Osman,
and Economic Affairs, Court of the Crown Prince of Bahrain; Memduh
Minister of State, Ministry of National Development and Ministry of
Karakullukçu, Vice Chairman and President, Global Relations Forum,
Defence, Singapore; Anil Wadhwa, Secretary (East), Ministry of External
Turkey; Sunil Bharti Mittal, Founder and Chairman, Bharti Enterprises;
Affairs, India; Tarek Shayya, Director of Strategy, Office of the Minister of
and Habil Khorakiwala, Chairman, Wockhardt Group.
State, UAE; C. Rajamohan, Distinguished Fellow, ORF.
The parallel special sessions discussed India’s ‘Make in India’ pro-
The IGF was attended by over 200 invited delegates from India and
gramme and the role of private investment in defence modernisation, the
abroad, including government officials, diplomats, business leaders and
energy security strategies of emerging economies, challenges to regional
policy analysts.
security in the Gulf and the Indo-Pacific, and the governance agenda for
More photos of the India Global Forum are available on the IISS Flickr
cyber security. Speakers included Amitabh Kant, Secretary, Department
site. The IGF sessions are available to watch here.
Sunil Bharti Mittal, Founder and Chairman, Bharti Enterprises; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Sunjoy Joshi, Director, ORF; and Dr Habil Khorakiwala, Chairman, Wockhardt Group
Klaus Regling, Chief Executive Officer, European Financial Stability Facility; Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director, Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS; Nirmala Sitharaman, Minister of Commerce and Industry, India; and Dr Dino Patti Djalal, Deputy Foreign Minister, Indonesia
IISS NEWS
DECEMBER 2014 | 11
SOUTH ASIA
IISS-NESA SECURITY CONFERENCE
EXPERTS
8th IISS–NESA Oman 2014 Conference The 8th IISS conference on South Asia Security, in partnership with the US National Defense University’s Near East South Asia (NESA) Center for Strategic Studies, took place in Muscat, Oman, on 17–19 October 2014. This ‘one-and-a-half’ track conference, with senior officials participating in their private capacity, focused on ‘Afghanistan and Regional Stability & Security’. Amidst new governments for the first time in over a decade in both Afghanistan and India, and a relatively new civilian government in Pakistan, security challenges have proliferated. The Afghan Taliban has launched its most intense offensive as NATO/ISAF combat forces prepare
Shaharyar Khan, Pakistan’s Special Envoy to the Prime Minister for India; and Satinder Lambah, Former Indian Special Envoy to the Prime Minister
to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of December 2014. The longawaited Pakistani military operation ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ has now been launched against militants in North Waziristan. The decade-long ceasefire between India and Pakistan on Kashmir’s Line of Control and Working Boundary continues to be violated by both, raising tensions. Amidst these challenges, the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has had an impact on all three countries. The conference brought together 53 top government officials, high-level diplomats, senior military and intelligence officials, and influential experts from Afghanistan, India and Pakistan, along with a few participants from the US & Europe. These included Maj.-Gen. Ahmad Mahmood Hayat, the Director-General (Strategic Intelligence and Analysis) of Pakistan’s InterServices Intelligence, Brig.-Gen. Ahmed Zia Saraj, the First Deputy for Counter- & Foreign Intelligence of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of State Security, M.J. Akbar, the National Spokesman for India’s ruling Bharatiya
Lieutenant General (Retd) Terry Wolff, Director, NESA Center for Strategic Studies
Janata Party (BJP) and Philip Barton, the British High Commissioner to Pakistan. NESA was led by its new Director Lt-Gen. (retd) Terry Wolff. The conference was organised by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia, with support from Rebecca Fishley and Stephanie Love, Asia Dialogues Coordinator.
Major General Ahmad Mahmood Hayat, Director General (Strategic Intelligence and Analysis), Inter Services Intelligence
The IISS is grateful for the continued support provided by His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said of Oman to this annual conference series. The 9th IISS–NESA South Asia Security Conference will be held in Oman in late 2015.
IISS Nuclear Workshops in South Asia The IISS organised its third annual ‘one-and-a-half’ track defence and nuclear workshops in New Delhi and Islamabad in late 2014. Both of these ‘off-the-record’ workshops took forward previous discussions on regional defence and nuclear deterrence issues. The Indian workshop was held jointly with the United Service Institution (USI) of India on 11 November and focused on the dynam-
M. K. Narayanan, former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister and former Chair, Executive Council of India’s Nuclear Command Authority
ics of strategic stability with China and Pakistan, deterrence at sea, and confidence-building measures in Southern Asia. The valedictory address
building measures in South Asia. The keynote address was delivered
was delivered by M.K. Narayanan, former National Security Advisor to
by Lt-Gen. (retd) Khalid Kidwai, Advisor on Nuclear Development to
the Prime Minister and former Chair of the Executive Council of India’s
Pakistan’s National Command Authority. The visiting IISS team also
Nuclear Command Authority.
called on Lt-Gen. Zubair Hayat, the Director-General of the Strategic Plans
The Pakistan workshop was held on 4 December with the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS). The event focused on the regional security environment, stabilising deterrence, and the future of confidence-
12
|
DECEMBER 2014
Division of Pakistan’s National Command Authority. The fourth round of the IISS’s South Asian defence and nuclear workshops will be held in the region in late 2015.
IISS NEWS
AFGHANISTAN
EXPERTS
SOUTH ASIA
Afghanistan’s New Government: Challenges and Opportunities
Afghanistan and Regional Security
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani with US Secretary of State John Kerry in Kabul, August 2014 (US State Department)
Loading a C-17 Globemaster III aircraft Aug. 11, 2014, at Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan (Brandon Lingle/US Air Force)
In the first of two meetings exploring post-2014 Afghanistan, Senior BBC
On 22 October, Professor Roger Kangas spoke at Arundel House on
Broadcast Journalist Dawood Azami discussed the country’s prospects for
Afghanistan’s future stability in the regional context. Kangas, the
stability after historic elections. Following the signing of a power-sharing
Academic Dean at the Near East South Asia Center (NESA) for Strategic
deal, Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah were now the coun-
Studies, said the Central Asian states had broadly welcomed Kabul’s
try’s second post-Taliban president and first-ever Chief Executive Officer,
two new leaders. Yet to overcome Afghanistan’s ‘failure narrative’ and
respectively. Azami argued that eventually, hopefully before the upcom-
pursue true regional economic cooperation in energy and infrastructure,
ing London Conference on Afghanistan (December 2014), ‘big tent politics’
Central Asia would require political support from extra-regional part-
would usher in a new government. Provided its two strongmen used their
ners. New US priorities had led states like Kyrgyzstan to adjust their own
leadership to work together, he believed they could tackle their long to-do
security policies, while some had considered pursuing closer ties to the
list. Azami stressed that new cabinet appointments must be based on
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Meanwhile, Iran’s role in maintain-
merit and parity; parliamentary elections must be organised in 2015, and
ing regional stability would largely depend, Kangas explained, on the
a constitutional amendment institutionalising power-sharing, improving
fate of talks regarding its nuclear programme. Rahul Roy-Chaudhury,
governance and decentralising power must be prepared by 2016. However,
Senior Fellow for South Asia, welcomed early signs that Afghanistan–
security remained the biggest challenge. Although agreements with the US
Pakistan relations were improving. Narendra Modi’s government, he
and NATO had boosted security forces, improved logistics and air support
noted, had not yet given significant official pointers on India’s ties with
were still required. Turning to the country’s serious narcotics problem,
Afghanistan. These would likely continue to rely on a pragmatic and
Azami proposed that raising incomes might dent the resurgent opium
balanced approach. Despite an encouraging start by the new Indian and
economy. Regarding foreign relations, Ghani was also keen on better ties
Pakistani governments, bilateral relations remained tense and plagued
with Pakistan and the region. The Taliban had missed the ‘deal of the cen-
by strategic rivalry. In the context of Afghanistan in particular, the rela-
tury’ with president Karzai, but Azami stressed that ‘talks about talks’ were
tionship between the two countries was still fraught with distrust. And
cause for optimism. Azami expected Mullah Omar to resist any attempted
yet, Kangas noted, both India and Pakistan wanted a stable and secure
inroads by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Afghanistan. An
Afghanistan, if perhaps more on their own terms. Listen to audio of the
audio recording of the event can be found here.
event here.
India and Her Neighbours
centre–state relations in India, democracies in all the region’s capitals,
On 29 October, Former High Commissioner of India to Bangladesh
achievement of these goals.
buoyant demographics and high market demand would facilitate the
Veena Sikri addressed an audience at Arundel House on India’s relations
The strength of Modi’s approach to regional foreign relations, Sikri
with her neighbours. She predicted that since Prime Minister Narendra
added, would soon be tested in the context of Bangladesh, which shares
Modi’s topmost priority was India’s economic and social development,
a border with the Indian state of West Bengal. The successful resolution
he would focus first on its immediate neighbours. Moreover, Sikri
of outstanding issues with Bangladesh before upcoming elections in West
explained, Modi’s diplomacy was focused on treating these neighbours
Bengal would be a significant victory for the new Indian government.
equally. His ministers and their departments were mobilised to imple-
Crucially, such resolution would need to include the signing of a compre-
ment agreements fast, and if bilateral agreements proved out of reach,
hensive water-sharing agreement. In this context, Sikri called for a bilateral
Modi would turn to ministerial meetings of the existing South Asian
water survey and better financial facilities to boost cross-border trade.
Association for Regional Cooperation or Bay of Bengal Initiative. Better
Audio of the event is available here.
IISS NEWS
DECEMBER 2014 | 13
SOUTH ASIA
INDIA
EXPERTS
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Foreign Policy The National Spokesperson for India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), M.J. Akbar, argued on 28 November that Narendra Modi’s foreign policy was largely influenced by his domestic priorities. Modi wanted to ‘uplift’ the remaining 30% of India’s least fortunate by ‘eradicating’ poverty, not merely ‘alleviating’ it. His timeframe for this extended beyond his current five-year term. With investment and governance reforms, Akbar, declared, Modi would shun the ‘dead hand of the state’. The prime minister had entrusted the creative minds of India’s private sector with raising employ-
Prime Minister Modi at the launch of the ‘Make in India’ initiative in New Delhi, September 2014 (Asish Maitra)
ment and industrial production, while the ‘Make in India’ policy was already at work in the defence sector.
bility’ along the frontier. By contrast, said Akbar, India’s western outlook
Meanwhile, Akbar noted, economic extroversion had initiated Modi’s
as far as North Africa was beset by instability and conflicts often steeped
‘Act East’ policy. With regard to foreign relations, Modi had paid early
in complex history. A modern and secular India, Akbar argued, had nei-
visits to South East Asia, Japan and the Pacific region. He had also devoted
ther any interests nor any strategic stakes to defend to the west. Therefore,
attention to India’s dealings with Nepal and Bangladesh. More impres-
Pakistan would have to make the first steps if it wanted India to feel com-
sively, India had successfully hosted Xi Jinping despite an unresolved
fortable with increased engagement. Listen to the full discussion on the
border dispute and China’s alleged promotion of a state of ‘stable insta-
IISS website.
KEY ADDRESS
OPPENHEIMER LECTURES
Oppenheimer Lecture: Human Security and Conflict Resolution in West Africa The 2014 Oppenheimer Lecture was delivered by veteran human-rights activist and former prime minister of Senegal Dr Aminata Touré, on 15 October. Dr Touré discussed the risks posed to human security by the recent Ebola outbreak, which has strained West African healthcare systems and disrupted trade and travel patterns. However, it was ‘extreme poverty’ and the accompanying sense of hopelessness that she identified as the
Young women collect water in Senegal (World Women International)
greatest threat to peace in the region. She also noted the ongoing shift in the nature of conflict, from ‘classic’ wars between states to coups and violent efforts led by armed insurgencies. Responding to questions about the deteriorating situation in Libya, Touré declared that it was time for Senegal and the African Union to speak out against the foreign financing of jihadis intent on toppling the country’s legitimate government. She added that the rest of the global community must also exhibit ‘international solidarity’ in the fight against conflict, disease and economic decline. As part of this process, she specifically urged politicians, world leaders and international organisations to do more to protect the rights of women affected by conflict. The event was chaired by by Fleur de Villiers, Chair of the IISS Trustees. Watch the full lecture on the IISS website. Dr Aminata Touré, former prime minister of Senegal
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IISS NEWS
ASIA-PACIFIC
‘Changing Asia – A Japanese Perspective’
EVENTS
Ambassador Ichiro Fujisaki visited IISS–UK on 13 October to discuss Japanese perspectives on the changing balance of power in Asia. The event was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS. Previously an IISS Research Associate in London, Fujisaki went on to have an accomplished diplomatic career, including postings as Ambassador of Japan to the UN, the World Trade Organisation and the United States. He is currently President of the America–Japan Society and Distinguished Professor and Chairman of International Strategies at Sophia University, Tokyo. Although Asia was experiencing a period of political and economic flux, Fujisaki counselled against adapting too alarmist a reading of recent security and political developments in the region. While Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was seeking reforms to the country’s security policy, the essence of collective self-defence, Fujisaki argued, remained intact. Fundamentally, Japan was not a revisionist power, but one which had a vested interest in safeguarding peace. Furthermore, recent leadership transitions in China and Japan had bred opportunities alongside existing challenges. Beijing, as much as Tokyo, Fujisaki noted, recognised the need to reduce the inter-state tensions that had undermined trust in the
Japanese Self Defence Force parade, 2013 (Rikujojieitai Boueisho)
EXPERTS
CYBER SECURITY
region. Watch the discussion here.
CHINA
TRANSNATIONAL THREATS AND POLITICAL RISK
‘China’s Internet’ Discussion Series On 27 October and 24 November, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel Inkster spoke at the first two of five planned events on China's cyber policies and capabilities. The first of these, ‘China's Internet: the Balance Between Openness and Security’, was chaired by IISS Director of Editorial, Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security and Editor of the Adelphi Books, Nicolas Redman. Inkster argued that unlike in Western liberal democracies, the development of the Internet in China had been driven by the country’s top political leadership to promote economic development. Progress, he explained, had been remarkable, with China on the way to becoming a top-tier global cyber power. The Chinese leader-
value system. Over the course of 2014, he noted, China had become more
ship had also managed to simultaneously develop extensive mechanisms
energetic and assertive in leveraging its status as a major global cyber
to monitor and censor online content and behaviours to maintain political
power to shape the international environment to its benefit. Audio of this
control. Click here to listen to the presentation.
event can be found here.
The second discussion, chaired by IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward,
The next three events will deal with cyber espionage, military cyber
covered ‘China's International Cyber-Security Policy’. Inkster argued that
capabilities and the global security implications of China's cyber policies
China had always sought to engage in international discussion on global
and capabilities. These presentations will form the basis of an Adelphi book
cyber governance and security as a way to defend and promote its own
to be published in 2015.
Appointments The IISS welcomes the following; Isabel DiVanna MD; Corporate and External Relations Tom Kelman Interim Head of Finance and Administration
IISS NEWS
Matthew Harries Managing Editor, Survival Ian Keddie Research Analyst, Defence and Military Analysis Brian Jack Senior Systems Administrator Tilly Grove Production and Press Assistant
DECEMBER 2014 | 15
DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS
UNITED STATES
RUSSIA
SPACE
EXPERTS
US Arms Control Policy and Strategic Posture in the Face of a Resurgent Russia Speaking at IISS–London on 6 October, Elbridge Colby, Robert M. Gates Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, argued that in light of Russia’s behaviour towards Ukraine, Washington's model of post-Soviet deterrence – and its associated approach to nuclear weapons control – needed to be revisited. Russia had shown, he suggested, that it was prepared to use force or the threat of force in the European neighbourhood.
An unarmed US Air Force Minuteman III ICBM launches during a test, December 2013 (Yvonne Morales/US Air Force)
This meant that the US and its allies must be prepared to meet this challenge across a spectrum of military strategies, from the ‘little green men’ who had
of range performance.) The alleged violation, he maintained, was a ‘blow
proved so effective in Crimea, to a full range of conventional and nuclear
to trust’ that would not be repaired quickly. In the immediate post-Cold
capabilities. In the strategic weapons sphere, Colby contended that the
War era, arms control ‘became a mechanism for political rapprochement’
United States’ nuclear-weapons posture was not suited to countering Russia.
and an ‘instrument of warming ties’; this was no longer the case.
With regard to arms control, Colby stated that there was ‘a high degree
Colby emphasised that he was not arguing in favour of ‘unbridled stra-
of confidence’ in Washington that Russia had violated the Intermediate-
tegic competition’; rather, he proposed that Washington should ‘adapt its
Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. (There were both Russian cruise- and
deterrence and defence policy’ to suit the changed circumstances. Listen to
ballistic-missile systems that were candidates for treaty breaches in terms
the event on the IISS website.
Hybrid Warfare ‘Hybrid warfare’ was the topic of a high-level workshop held at Arundel House on 25 November. The term refers to the mix of military and nonmilitary methods employed, for example, by Russia in Ukraine. The tactics have sparked considerable discussion at NATO headquarters and among defence policymakers in member countries of the Alliance. The workshop was the third in a series held by the IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme, relating to the NATO summit that was held in Wales in September. The first seminar covered NATO as a maritime power, and the second considered NATO’s approach to capacity-building in fragile countries. The fourth and final workshop, to be held in early 2015,
Donestk People’s Republic fighter near the eastern Ukrainian city of Ilovaisk
will consider how to meet NATO’s future ambitions. The series of events is supported by NATO Public Diplomacy, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Speakers at the November workshop included Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies at King’s College London; Frank
Research Fellow for Security and Development; Emile Simpson, author of War From the Ground Up; Keir Giles, Director of the Conflict Studies Research Centre; and Rafal Rohozinski, CEO of the SecDev Group and IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Cyber Security.
Hoffman of the US National Defence University, whose work helped
Sessions were chaired by Alexander Nicoll, Senior Fellow for Geo-
to create the concept of hybrid warfare; Andrew Budd, who is closely
economics and Defence, Nigel Inkster, Director for Transnational Threats
involved in developing policies on the subject at NATO headquarters; Peter
and Political Risk, and Bastian Giegerich, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for
Watkins, Director General, Security Policy, UK MoD; Virginia Comolli, IISS
European Security and Policy Adviser, German Ministry of Defence.
Sustaining the Space Environment
of space debris. Regarding the last of these, efforts were underway to try to
Frank Rose, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Space and
of debris. Rose pointed out that this issue was a problem for all space-far-
Defense Policy, made a welcome return to the Institute on 21 November.
ing nations, with the potential cause significant damage if not addressed.
Speaking at an event chaired by Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military
Referring to the 2007 test of an anti-satellite system by China that resulted
Aerospace, Rose explored issues including the further militarisation of
in the creation of a large and still extant debris field, Rose argued that the
space, anti-satellite weapons, missile defence and the continuing problem
risk of creating even more debris through similar tests must be avoided.
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DECEMBER 2014
agree on an international code of conduct that would reduce the creation
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
Countering ISIS
ISLAMIC STATE
DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS
Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry analysed the US-led coalition air campaign against ISIS. He noted that since the start of coalition air strikes, ISIS’s advance had indeed been halted. But the campaign was likely to increase in complexity, with Iraqi politics serving as the critical limiting factor on military plans. Anti-ISIS operations in Syria, on the other hand, would significantly increase political risk. While Iran’s aims were aligned with the coalition in Iraq, Tehran and its ally Hezbollah have invested heavily in supporting the Assad regime – as had Russia. But the stated policy of the US and some of its key allies, including the UK, was that President Assad should step down. Attacking ISIS in Syria would therefore make the resolution of political and military contradictions unavoidable. Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel Inkster then discussed the role of Western ISIS recruits in the fight against extremism. He emphasised the importance of differentiating between ‘misguided’ young
US Air Force F-15s over northern Iraq after conducting airstrikes in Syria, September 2014 (Matthew Bruch/US Air Force)
people who arrive in Iraq and Syria to find themselves ‘out of their depth’ and truly dangerous extremists from whom the public must be protected. While ISIS ideology was likely to attract those with ‘psychopathic tenden-
On 27 November, four IISS experts convened at Arundel House to discuss
cies’, most Western recruits were confined to menial jobs or used as ‘cannon
the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria. The
fodder’. Inkster concluded by suggesting that ISIS may eventually find itself
event was chaired by IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward.
‘overstretched’ as it attempts to control an increasingly large region.
Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East Toby Dodge discussed
Senior Fellow for Middle East Security Emile Hokayem focused on the
three principal causes behind the failure of the Iraqi political system and
campaign against ISIS in Syria. He noted that conflicting national interests
subsequent rise of ISIS. The first of these was coercive weakness, due to
undermined this effort, as demonstrated by Turkey’s refusal to participate
pervasive corruption undermining the Iraqi state and military. The incen-
without a shift in US policy toward the Assad regime. Hokayem also dis-
tive for Iraqi soldiers to defend such a state was extremely low, leading
cussed the West’s loss of credibility with the Syrian opposition, who sought
them to abandon the country’s cities. Secondly, infrastructural weakness
to prioritise the defeat of Assad over that of ISIS. ISIS, in turn, had taken
prevented necessary inter-ministerial coordination against ISIS. With
advantage of this sentiment to recruit among Syrian rebels, depicting itself
each ministry controlled by a different sect, a strong, joint approach
as the ‘spearhead’ in the fight against Assad. Hokayem also suggested that
was largely impossible. Lastly, Dodge explained how Iraq’s ‘sectarian
the decision to focus on battling ISIS in Kobane had allowed the group
organising impulse’ had ‘persecuted and alienated’ Sunnis, sparking the
to make gains elsewhere while the coalition was distracted by events in a
mobilisation of groups like ISIS who sought revenge for their mistreat-
single town.
ment.
The full discussion is available to watch on the IISS website.
Neither War Nor Peace: Why the Information Revolution Makes ‘Forever Wars’ a New Normal The twenty-first century’s information revolution creates networked, multi-player, and open-ended conflicts that occupy a grey zone between war and peace. This was the concept discussed in a 26 November talk by Emile Simpson at IISS–London. Simpson is a former British Army officer, author of War From the Ground Up: Twenty-First-Century Combat as Politics, and currently an Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
Officers from the UK and Italian armed forces plan an exercise (Crown Copyright/ Obi Igbo)
Simpson proposed that this type of dispute is the new normal. His discussion, chaired by IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Brigadier
of its influence on jihadists worldwide. Moreover, he added, the glo-
(Retd) Ben Barry, analysed the challenges that arise from the prolif-
balisation of the world economy meant that properly applied economic
eration and globalisation of information, allowing multiple actors to
sanctions were increasing in effectiveness. Simpson concluded by sug-
achieve degrees of connectivity with potentially revolutionary results.
gesting appropriate strategic responses to this development, including
Some of these effects, he explained, were visible in links between violent
handling conflicts in a way that made the lines between war and peace
extremists in the Maghreb, and in the rise of ISIS and rapid expansion
clearer.
IISS NEWS
DECEMBER 2014 | 17
SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT
BRAZIL
THAILAND
Brazil’s Political Landscape: New Demands, New Actors
REFUGEES
EXPERTS
COIN in Thailand: Combining Security and Socio-economic Policies
President Dilma Rousseff gives an interview at the Presidential Palace (Brasil.gov.br)
Following the re-election of incumbent Dilma Rousseff to the Brazilian presidency, IISS–UK held a discussion exploring the new demands voiced
Muslim schoolchildren ready to enter school in Saiburi, in Thailand’s southern province of Pattani (Madaree Tohlala/AFP/Getty)
by the country’s middle class and their effects on the political process. The event featured two experienced observers of Brazilian politics: Marcus
On 28 October the Security and Development Programme hosted a dis-
Freitas, Professor of International Law and International Relations at
cussion meeting with Dr Jeff M. Moore, CEO of Muir Analytics and an
the Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation (FAAP), São Paulo, and Dr
established expert on Thai counterinsurgency (COIN).
Anthony Pereira, Director of the Brazil Institute at King’s College London.
The Thai government has a long history of dealing with insurgent
Research Analyst for Security and Development Antônio Sampaio chaired
movements. These have included a communist insurgency from 1965–
the discussion, which took place on 21 October.
1985, a southern separatist movement from 1980–98 and, from 2004
Freitas emphasised the growing role of individual figures, as opposed to political parties, in shaping Brazilian political discourse. This, Freitas added,
onward, the re-emergence of the southern separatist challenge, now featuring an Islamist component.
was linked to the lack of fundamental differences between the key policy
The meeting, chaired by Research Fellow for Security and
proposals of the main parties. Dr Pereira highlighted the economic debate at
Development Virginia Comolli, highlighted how successes had largely
the centre of the electoral campaign, proposing a restructuring of the devel-
rested on the implementation of socio-economic programmes to com-
opmental foundation of the state to allow a return to the high growth rates
plement traditional security approaches. During the communist COIN,
of the 2000s. He added that the so-called ‘Class C’ – the lower middle class –
for example, some intelligence officers lived in local villages, under the
had become the key battleground, with many voters split between the social
guise of doing anthropological research, to identify local needs and
development achievements of Rousseff and the business-friendly proposals
influential community leaders. Audio of the discussion is available
of the opposition. Listen to the discussion here.
here.
Migration from developing and conflict regions into Europe On 24 November, Research Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli chaired a discussion aimed at addressing some of the trends and challenges regarding conflict-related displacement and migration. Andrej Mahecic, Senior External Relations Officer at the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in London and Minister Vincenzo Celeste, Deputy Head of Mission at the Italian Embassy in London shared their views on the issue. Mr Mahecic provided a detailed overview of this ‘unprecedented
The Italian navy helps a boatload of people trying to reach Europe from North Africa (UNHCR/Italian Navy/M. Sestini)
crisis’. He noted that 51.2 million people were currently in situations of forced displacement, describing this as ‘the largest humanitarian situation
had the concept of ‘burden sharing’ with regard to migration flows been
in the history of UNHCR’. Minister Celeste explained that EU migration
comprehensively applied among EU member states, both operationally
policy had recently reached a critical juncture. Only this autumn, he stated,
and financially. Listen to the full discussion on the IISS website.
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DECEMBER 2014
IISS NEWS
SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT
EXPERTS
Modernising Drug Law Enforcement Arundel House hosted a seminar on 5–6 November to discuss new policies for reducing criminal violence, based on lessons learned in Europe and Latin America. The event was held in partnership with the International Drug Policy Consortium (IDPC) and Chatham House, with the support of the European Commission. Participants included high-level policymakers, diplomats, journalists, experts and representatives from international organisations such as Interpol, Ameripol, the United Nations and the Organization of American States (OAS).
Interpol-led Operation Lionfish targeted the maritime trafficking of drugs and firearms across Central America and the Caribbean (Interpol)
The seminar explored Latin America as an example of a region with complex drug-related conflicts. Speakers noted that armed groups
nected to one another would likely facilitate the formulation of better
were diversifying their operations to include other illegal activities
policies.
such as mining and money laundering. This raised issues about who,
Moving on to more global topics, participants discussed the problems
and what, should be targeted by law-enforcement agencies. Attendees
posed by online markets for drugs that relied on the so-called ‘Dark Net’.
suggested that law enforcement should focus on the supply chains for
They concluded by examining new metrics established to assess success in
criminal groups, since a better understanding of how groups were con-
law enforcement.
UK-Brazil Naval Dialogue
The sessions began with introductory remarks by senior IISS analysts, stimulating trilateral discussions between UK and Brazilian officials and
For the second year in a row, Arundel House hosted a discussion between
IISS experts. The first of these examined capacity building aimed at coun-
high-level representatives of the UK Ministry of Defence and the Brazilian
tering piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, along with the operational challenges
Navy. The event took place on 29 October and was chaired by Adam Ward,
that accompany this endeavour. This area is of strategic importance for
Director of Studies. Attendees included UK representatives involved in
Brazil, which maintains strong trade links with West Africa. Other issues
counter-narcotics, policy planning and strategy at the Ministry of Defence,
covered included the build-up of naval forces in South Asia, extrem-
Royal Navy, FCO and UK Trade & Investment. The Brazilian team was
ism and organised crime in West Africa and hybrid armed groups in
headed by the Navy’s Head of Strategy, Rear Admiral Flávio Rocha.
Colombia.
ASIA-PACIFIC
IISS–ASIA
Adelphi Launch: The Ties that Divide On 14 November, IISS–Asia launched the Institute’s latest Adelphi book:
ing Sino-Japanese tensions. He added
The Ties That Divide: History, Honour and Territory in Sino-Japanese Relations,
that longer-term stabilisation strate-
by Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security William
gies should include domestic efforts by
Choong. The event drew strong interest from private sector individuals,
both governments to temper aggressive
scholars and the media.
nationalism, as well as a joint reassess-
IISS–Asia Executive Director Tim Huxley chaired the event, opening the discussion with an overview of IISS activities before highlighting
ment of the two countries’ historical relationship.
the book’s pertinence to current debates about Sino-Japanese relations.
Choong argued that economic inter-
Choong then provided an assessment of the key problems plaguing this
dependence between China and Japan
relationship, noting how differences over historiography and disputed
would not necessarily rule out conflict.
claims to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands had intensified the countries’
The subsequent discussion concluded
security dilemma. Given the high probability of accidental escalation sur-
that the two countries needed to put aside their differences – at best,
rounding the islands, Choong advocated a return to the 1972 ‘Shanghai
this would increase the likelihood of a longer-term rapprochement; at
Communiqué’, an agreement that saw the deferral of the island dispute
worst, it would prevent the further deterioration of their bilateral rela-
and the establishment of confidence-building measures aimed at reduc-
tionship.
IISS NEWS
DECEMBER 2014 | 19
NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT
IRAN
CHINA
NORTH KOREA
EXPERTS
After the Deadline: Assessing the Nuclear Negotiations with Iran On 28 November, four days after the second deadline for the negotiation of a final deal on Iran’s nuclear programme, the IISS hosted a panel to assess the talks. The event was chaired by IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme Director Mark Fitzpatrick. Panellists discussed the implications of the extension, the state of the Iranian economy and what potential sanctions relief might achieve, and the current domestic political environment. Speakers included Ali Ghezelbash, an independent strategic consultant in politics and the energy industry; Rouzbeh Parsi, a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Human Rights Studies at Lund University, Sweden, and former Senior Analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS); and Ariane Tabatabai, an associate and former Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. The panel identified Iran’s enrichment programme, the timeframe of a final agreement, and the type and timeline of sanctions relief as the
P5+1 Talks on Iran’s nuclear programme at the UN in Geneva, November 2014 (US Mission Geneva/Eric Bridiers)
remaining sticking points. Overcoming these final hurdles would be difficult, especially as hardliners in Tehran were deliberately trying to box
pline, but this would require a degree of sanctions relief, which could only
in the negotiators so that they could not accept further compromises.
be obtained through a final agreement. Watch the event on the IISS website
Economically, the Rouhani administration was focused on better disci-
here.
Regional Reactions to Chinese Nuclear Posture On 27 October, the IISS held a workshop in Seoul, South Korea, in part-
ties, this meeting considered nuclear security more broadly, including
nership with the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security
regional responses to nuclear postures and the continuing challenge
(IFANS) and the Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control
posed by North Korea. Further sessions were also devoted to discussing
(KINAC). The event was part of a project to strengthen cooperation
the likely contributions to the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit and fuel
between Chinese and Western policymaking communities on nuclear
cycle choices in the region. The workshop attracted more than 30 experts
issues. Expanding on previous discussions exploring nuclear security
from China, the Republic of Korea, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom
cooperation in the narrow sense of the physical security of nuclear facili-
and the United States.
MEMBERSHIP
Membership Events Throughout October and November, the IISS hosted several events for current and prospective mem-
The Military Balance 2015 The forthcoming Military Balance 2015 will be launched on 12 February 2015.
bers. On 1 October, Dana Allin (Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; Editor of Survival), Mark Fitzpatrick (Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme) and Samuel Charap (Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia) spoke at an open house for graduate students in Washington. The three experts introduced the Institute’s key publications and highlighted upcoming public events scheduled for autumn 2014. On 9 October, Professor Sir Michael Howard (President Emeritus), Adam Ward (Director of Studies), Hervé Le Mahieu (Research Associate for Political Economy and Security; Coordinator for Research and Fundraising), Dina Esfandiary (Research Associate, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme) and Joseph Dempsey (Research Analyst, Military Balance) addressed current and prospective young professional members on the history and work of the Institute at Arundel House. Most recently, Mark Fitzpatrick, Nigel Inkster (Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk) and Virginia Comolli (Research Fellow for Security and Development) spoke to Institute members in London on 19 November. They discussed their roles at the IISS before inviting members to share their suggestions on the directions of IISS research.
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DECEMBER 2014
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
ASIA-PACIFIC
CYBER SECURITY
NATO
IISS–US
‘Great Rapprochement? Strategic Relations in Asia’ Leading up to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings in Beijing, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security Christian Le Mière visited IISS–US to discuss expectations for the international summit, along with future regional trends. Recalling the increase in diplomatic communication and drawdown of maritime patrols, Le Mière suggested a potential rapprochement in Asian politics may be underway. While still addressing the obstacles of Japanese and Chinese domestic politics and China’s pursuit of a hegemonic status, comments focused on efforts made to lessen tensions between China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Participants also noted that recent progress made across Southeast Asia hinted at the emergence of a less confrontational environment. Chaired by IISS–US Managing Director Bryce Campbell, this event took place on 6 November and can be viewed on the IISS website.
Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 22nd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Meeting in Beijing, China (Xinhua/Pang Xinglei)
‘Cyber Warfare and Sino-American Crisis Instability’ On 12 November the Honourable David C. Gompert, Visiting Professor at the United States Naval Academy and Senior Fellow at the RAND Corporation, and Dr Martin Libicki, Senior Management Scientist at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, spoke at IISS–US. Addressing the crisis instability of cyber warfare between China and the US, they argued that as these militaries continued
A Chinese Long March-4B rocket carrying the CBERS-4 satellite is launched in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, December 2014 (Xinhua/Tian Zhaoyun)
to develop their cyber capabilities, they were inevitably rendering any type of confrontation more dangerous for both countries. Gompert and
attack. The speakers warned that as each country became increasingly fear-
Libicki contended that following this path would leave each side with
ful of what the other was capable of in a society where cyber norms do not
several motivations to attack pre-emptively rather than later on, and with
exist, any crisis scenario had the potential to provoke a rapid escalation.
tremendous force. Cyber warfare, they also noted, becomes more fragile
This event was chaired by Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia Samuel
when trying to gauge the magnitude, intent and targeting limitations of an
Charap and is available to watch on the IISS website.
‘The New Landscape of European Security’ On 10 September, US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Derek Chollet discussed the new phase of security operations NATO would face after its operations wound down in Afghanistan. NATO’s newest security concerns were much closer to home – namely, the crisis in Ukraine and the rise of Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). The US, Chollet explained, sought to assist its
Members hold a working session on ‘Future NATO’ at the NATO Summit Wales 2014 (Crown copyright/Tom Robinson)
European partners in both of these areas, as the Alliance ‘doesn’t have
Chollet argued that if Russia stopped pursuing destabilising politics
the luxury of choosing’. Regarding the Ukraine crisis, Chollet said that
in its neighbourhood, the West would welcome it as a partner. Despite
the US had been working to develop a bilateral security relationship
disagreements and Russia’s aggressive behaviour, there were still issues
with Ukraine. Yet with the latter still facing many challenges, rang-
that require US–Russia cooperation in order to be addressed. These
ing from corruption to heavily armed separatists, the US and other
include Iran’s nuclear programme and Syria’s chemical weapons pro-
NATO member-states had decided to develop this relationship slowly.
gramme. This discussion, held at IISS–US, was moderated by IISS Senior
Ukraine, for example, still had not received lethal assistance from any
Fellow for Russia and Eurasia Samuel Charap and can be viewed on the
NATO member-state.
IISS website.
IISS NEWS
DECEMBER 2014 | 21
PUBLICATIONS
New Adelphi Books Adelphi 445 The Ties That Divide William Choong The
cool-headed
decision
of
China and Japan in the 1970s to shelve contentious issues such as Japan’s wartime record and the question of sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has been overturned. In its place, leaders and publics are indulging in nationalism and an inclination toward irrational
mediated through politics, bureaucracy and
held by IISS in its Middle East office in Manama.
or risky behaviour. Both nations have invested
ideology. The simplest explanation is that
Featuring essays by nine IISS analysts and a
much more in their claims to the islands than is
Chinese leaders, taken as a whole, have tended
number of outside experts, the book examines
justified by their value or the costs of an open
to place relatively little emphasis on the sort of
the most important geostrategic issues in the
conflict over them. Neither the cultural and
technical details that dominated US discussions
region, including the myriad security challenges
linguistic affinities between the two countries
regarding deterrence. Such profound differ-
it faces. These interlinked papers focus in par-
nor their economic interdependence preclude
ences in thinking about nuclear weapons could
ticular on the regional ramifications of the civil
the possibility that the dispute over the islands
lead to catastrophic misunderstanding in the
war in Syria and the effects of the United States’
could escalate and even lead to war.
event of a military crisis between Beijing and
changing posture in the Middle East.
In this Adelphi William Choong argues that
Washington.
The aim of this Adelphi is to both highlight and develop the ongoing discussions and
there is a pressing need for China and Japan to work out bilateral arrangements to prevent a fur-
Adelphi 447–448
debates about Gulf security that have taken
ther deterioration in relations. To identify such
Middle Eastern Security, the US Pivot and the
place at the Manama Dialogue over the previous
steps, he explores their disputes over historiog-
Rise of ISIS
decade, and that will continue to do so over the
raphy and territory, and how these are affected
Edited by Toby Dodge and Emile Hokayem
next ten years. As such, it capitalises on the IISS’s
by their military postures, the US-Japanese alli-
To mark the tenth anniversary of the IISS
global reputation not only as the world leader in
ance and the regional security architecture.
Manama Dialogue process and to capitalise on
convening para-diplomatic events, but also as a
the new light it has shed on security issues in
provider of the best possible objective informa-
Adelphi 446
the Gulf and the wider Middle East, this Adelphi
tion and analysis on global military and political
Paper Tigers: China’s Nuclear Posture
brings together the results of two workshops
developments.
Jeffrey Lewis China’s nuclear arsenal has long been an enigma. It is a small force, based almost exclusively on
Survival: Global Politics and Strategy
land-based ballistic missiles, maintained at a low level of alert and married to a no-first-use doctrine – all choices that would seem to invite attack in a crisis. Chinese leaders, when they have spoken about nuclear weapons, have artic-
In the December 2014–January 2015 issue of
ulated ideas that sound odd to the Western ear.
Survival, Lawrence Freedman examines Russia’s
Mao Zedong’s oft-quoted remark that ‘nuclear
strategy in the Ukraine conflict; Emile Hokayem
weapons are a paper tiger’ seems to be bluster
analyses the Syrian civil war in light of competi-
or madness.
tion between Iran and the Gulf states; and Robert
China’s nuclear forces are now too important
Ayson and Desmond Ball explore the dangers
to remain a mystery. Yet Westerners continue
of confrontation between China, Japan and the
to disagree about basic factual information
United States in the Asia-Pacific. Also in the issue:
concerning one of the world’s most impor-
Alexander Nicoll on Britain’s politics of union and
tant nuclear-weapons states. This Adelphi
immigration; Henri J. Barkey on Turkey’s growing
book documents and explains the evolution
isolation; and Alexa van Sickle on governance in
of China’s nuclear forces in terms of histori-
South Africa.
cal, bureaucratic and ideological factors. There is a strategic logic at work, but that logic is 22
|
DECEMBER 2014
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