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IISS Fullerton Lectures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 IISS Fullerton Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 IISS–Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Appointments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7, 17, 18
May 2016
Armed Conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Economic and Energy Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 European Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Future Conflict and Cyber Security . . . . . . . . . . 10 Russia–Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 IISS–Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy . . . . . . . . 16
IISS Fullerton Lectures
Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of Norway
The Global Goals: A Roadmap to a Sustainable, Fair and More Peaceful Future Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of Norway, began her Fullerton Lecture on 13
society. She also spoke about the importance of cultivating synergies between
April by identifying aspects of Singapore’s development process that were
the 17 sectoral SDGs to ensure an ‘holistic, sustainable development agenda’;
relevant to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 16) adopted by world
the need for governments to implement coherent strategies, policies and
leaders at the United Nations in September 2015. Crucially, she noted that
investments; and that the global goals will not only reinforce global norms but
Singapore – like Norway – strongly advocates a ‘predictable international
also raise expectations within countries and across borders. In addition, she
order’, governed by law rather than might. She went on to discuss how the
stressed that gender equality ‘makes strong economic sense’.
SDG 16 has at the heart of its agenda the promotion of just, peaceful and inclu-
The prime minister concluded by saying that the SDGs provide a route
sive societies, and talked about the particular challenges posed by the Syrian
to economic, social and environmental stability, emphasising that the right
refugee crisis.
choices over the next 15 years will make all the difference in achieving these
The focus of Solberg’s Fullerton Lecture, however, was on the challenges of achieving the SDGs. She emphasised the importance of partnership between governments, the private sector, UN agencies, development banks and civil
goals. The lecture was chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS– Asia, and was held at the Fullerton Hotel in Singapore. Watch the event.
IISS–ASIA
FULLERTON LECTURES
ASIA-PACIFIC
AUSTRALIA
Rational and Irrational Actors in a Troubled World
SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE
EGYPT
The 4th IISS Fullerton Forum: The Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting 2016
General (Retd) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Australia’s former prime minister Tony Abbott
The fourth Fullerton Forum, which took place in Singapore 24–26 January, brought together almost 70 delegates, mainly senior officials and mili-
Speaking at the IISS Fullerton Lecture in Singapore on 9 December 2015,
tary officers from more than 20 countries that regularly participate in the
Australia’s former prime minister Tony Abbott said that it was ‘easy to
Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD), as well as IISS research staff with expertise
be downcast about the world’s prospects’. However, he argued that
in Asian security and a small number of other non-governmental experts
the success of the Indo-Pacific region provided a ‘powerful antidote’ to
from SLD countries. The five main sessions of the Forum – which respec-
despondency. In Singapore’s case, he pointed to the synthesis of ‘Chinese
tively assessed the 2015 Shangri-La Dialogue, relations among the major
culture, Western values and British justice’ to produce effective govern-
powers in the Asia–Pacific, the security roles of medium and small powers,
ance and prosperity. Although China was ‘flexing its muscles’ and there
emerging threats, and the prospects for conflict management – were off
were ‘tremors from the Middle East’, Abbott highlighted the role of the
the record.
United States as the ‘key stabiliser’ in the region – a role which would
On 25 January, General (Retd) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Indonesia’s
persist even as China became increasingly powerful. He said crippling ten-
Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs, delivered
sions were unlikely ‘because even a cold war would be bad for everyone’.
the keynote speech on the record. In his address, General Luhut focused
Abbott argued that prospects for the region were good, becoming more
on the terrorist threat posed by the Islamic State in Southeast Asia. He
prosperous, freer and safer.
underlined the need for a comprehensive strategy to counter the threat,
In the Middle East, by contrast, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or
involving a combination of ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ approaches, emphasising that
ISIL, ‘death cult’ is thriving on conflict and presents the ‘biggest threat to
a hard approach – relying on the use of force – would not be sufficient. He
the world’s peace and security’, according to Abbott. He argued strongly
also emphasised the importance in an effective counter-terrorist strategy
for ‘the right intervention’, possibly involving the commitment of Western
of using international intelligence exchanges as well as programmes for
troops, to destroy this threat.
counter-radicalisation.
Following his remarks, there was a lively question-and-answer session,
In the second part of his address, General Luhut provided an upbeat
focusing particularly on the challenge of ISIS and how it should be
account of Indonesia’s recent economic progress, highlighting that a grow-
countered. The lecture was chaired by Tim Huxley, Executive Director of
ing economy is key to fighting terrorism and maintaining political and
IISS–Asia.
economic stability.
Watch the event.
Beyond Tahrir: Egypt Five Years After Mubarak
Watch the keynote address.
our Singapore office in a roundtable seminar chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia. Hellyer, who was in Cairo when Hosni Mubarak fell, when Muhammad Morsi became Egypt’s first democratically elected president, and when Abdel Fattah Al Sisi took office, offered
On 26 February, Dr H A Hellyer, Associate Fellow in International Security
his reflections on and analysis of Egyptian politics over the course of the
Studies at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, spoke at
last five years.
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MAY 2016
IISS NEWS
MYANMAR
IISS–ASIA
Myanmar’s strategic relations under the NLD On 1 March, Dr Nicholas Farrelly of the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, Australian National University, discussed the most important factors that were likely to influence the foreign policy of Myanmar’s new National League for Democracy (NLD) government. These factors included the domestic security calculus (essentially in terms of the rebellions by
Myanmar parliament building (UN Photo/Rick Bajornas)
ethnic armed groups), and the recent history of relations with neighbouring countries such as China, India, Bangladesh and Thailand. He argued that
concluded that while Myanmar’s new foreign policy was likely to be nec-
Myanmar was on the front-line of some difficult and challenging aspects of
essarily pragmatic – for example in terms of relations with China – the
the ‘Asian century’, particularly in terms of strategic rivalry between China
intriguing prospect of Suu Kyi as foreign minister suggested that principled
and India. In opposition, Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD spoke of the need
positions on some foreign policy issues were conceivable. This meeting was
for a ‘democratic foreign policy’ and ‘a foreign policy of principles’. Farrelly
chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director IISS–Asia.
ORGANISED CRIME
UNITED NATIONS
BRAZIL
SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT
The Global Governance Crisis and the Role of the UN Amid widespread international turbulence and a growing and evolving array of challenges, ranging from continued conflict to large-scale human displacement (to mention but two), world governance is undergoing a profound transformation. According to Michael Møller, Director-General of the United Nations Office at Geneva, the UN is not fit to play a role in this
Displaced persons at a water tank in West Darfur (Flickr)
new arena and needs to adjust to avoid becoming irrelevant. At this discussion meeting on 27 April, chaired by Research Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli, Møller argued in favour of greater preventative work to stop crises from emerging, stronger coopera-
tion and partnerships with, for instance, regional actors, and educating the public through a more constructive approach to news reporting. Watch the video.
The Age of the Fragile City
1st IISS–FUNAG Dialogue
With vast areas of the developing world facing unprecedented urban
On 26 February, the IISS Security and Development Programme and the
population growth, the IISS gathered a panel of international experts to
Alexandre de Gusmão Foundation (FUNAG) co-hosted a day-long dia-
discuss the emerging concept of ‘fragile cities’. The speakers were Dan
logue on ‘Strategies for International Peacebuilding and Development’ at
Lewis, Chief of the Disaster and Post-Conflict Section of UN-Habitat; Dr
the Itamaraty Palace (Ministry of External Relations) in Brasília.
Robert Muggah, Research Director at the Igarapé Institute; Dr John De
The aim of the dialogue was to encourage frank and insightful discussion
Boer, Senior Policy Advisor at United Nations University and Dr Caroline
of Brazil’s current thinking on international development and peacebuilding
Moser, Emeritus Professor at the University of Manchester. Held on 11
between the Brazilian Ministry of External Relations, other relevant Brazilian
December, the meeting was chaired by Antônio Sampaio, IISS Research
government agencies, and leading external and international experts.
Associate for Security and Development.
Additionally, it was hoped that such discussions would pave the way for
Moser explained that urban fragility was associated with the speed of
future strategies and strengthen Brazil’s voice in global security and devel-
population growth and the fragility of the overall state. Muggah added
opment issues. Specific themes discussed included: emerging powers in
that violence tended to take place in highly concentrated cities: in some
peacebuilding; building resilience and promoting stability in fragile regions;
Latin American cities most homicides took place in 1% of the streets. De
Brazil’s engagement with international security and stability; Brazil’s chang-
Boer acknowledged that the UN was not prepared to face the risks and
ing role as a development actor; managing the impact of climate change; and
opportunities presented by this urbanisation process, whereas Lewis out-
economic diplomacy and soft power in the developing world.
lined some responses the UN was devising to deal with the large migration flows reaching European cities.
IISS NEWS
The dialogue was the first iteration of what IISS and FUNAG hope will become an annual event.
MAY 2016 | 3
DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS
DEFENCE POLICY
DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY
NATO
EXPERTS
What Next for Defence Acquisition The Future Operating Environment Reform? 2035
The British Army’s AJAX prototype armoured fighting vehicle (Andrew Linnett/ MoD/Crown copyright) Ministry of Defence main building in Whitehall, London (Crown copyright)
The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) is an official ‘inhouse’ think tank within the UK Ministry of Defence. It recently released a
There are two simple principles to buying defence equipment: don’t order
report – ‘Future Operating Environment 2035’ – that describes the poten-
what you can’t pay for; and once you’ve decided what you want, stick to it.
tial characteristics of the environment in which the British armed forces
So said Sir Bernard Gray, until recently the UK Chief of Defence Materiel,
and government agencies are likely to operate in two decades’ time. On 9 March, Director of the DCDC Rear Admiral John Kingwell,
responsible for purchasing and supporting all military kit. Speaking in a valedictory lecture at Arundel House on 8 December,
launched the report at Arundel House. The report aims to provide a clear
Gray explained how he addressed the flawed process that allowed the
military context for policymakers, in order to inform the debate on future
Ministry of Defence to buy equipment worth tens of billions of pounds
capabilities and concepts. This included the key institutional, techno-
more than it could actually afford. Programmes for new kit that was essen-
logical, cultural and physical characteristics likely to shape the military
tially unaffordable proceeded at a snail’s pace so as to keep down the
operating environment in the future. Of these, increasing urbanisation and
annual spending on them. Gray pointed out that these delays were not
anti-access and area-denial capabilities were assessed as important factors.
cost-free, either in terms of money or operational capability. When offering
The report also placed understanding people and their motivations as a
lessons for the future, he suggested that risk-sharing between the buyer and
core capability for future armed forces. It went on to identify some of the
supplier was the answer, in addition to international cooperation – both
key future capabilities including unmanned systems and ‘big data’ analyt-
easier said than done, he admitted. He concluded by saying ‘To see clearly,
ics.
we must rise above the trees to see the forest.’ The meeting was chaired by Alexander Nicoll, Senior Fellow for Geo-economics and Defence. Listen to the event.
Although the briefing was off the record, slides are available on the website and the full report can be downloaded. Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at IISS, chaired the event.
The Road from Sarajevo: British Army Operations in Bosnia 1995–96 Just over 20 years ago, the savage Bosnian civil war was ended politically by the Dayton Agreement. But the treaty’s military provisions had to be implemented on the ground by NATO forces. On 10 March, IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry launched his new book on the decisive military role of the UK in these challenging operations.
British forces in Bosnia, 2012 (Crown copyright)
In a detailed analysis of their peace enforcement mission, he illustrates the challenges of these operations, often in the words of the officers and
British miscalculations in the Iraq and Afghan wars. The event was chaired
soldiers taking part. The book analyses the factors that influenced the mili-
by Dr Bastian Giegerich, Director of Defence and Military Analysis at IISS,
tary successes of the NATO Implementation Force and its British military
and took place at Arundel House in London.
contingent. It also shows how the success of these operations gave rise to military and political overconfidence, which contributed to subsequent
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MAY 2016
Listen to the event and find contemporary news reports of the operations on the website.
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
DEFENCE
DEFENCE ECONOMICS
ISLAMIC STATE
DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS
The Military Balance 2016 The Military Balance 2016 was launched at a series of events in February and March. The main press launch took place at Arundel House in London on 9 February, in front of international print and broadcast media. ‘The proliferation of advanced military capabilities, and of new and innovative technologies, is leading to an increasingly complex balance of military power,’ said Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, in his opening remarks. Across the world, access to militarily-relevant high technologies is growing and ‘for Western military powers, unfettered access is no longer a given, nor is technological superiority. Western military technological superiority, a core assumption of the past two decades, is eroding.’ Slowing this emerging trend or reversing it, Chipman said, ‘will be a key preoccupation of Western strategists in the coming decade.’
IISS experts talk with members of the press following the launch
Russia and China, The Military Balance notes, are increasingly active in the development and deployment of advanced military capabilities.
Foundation – the third year that Korber have hosted a Military Balance
Indeed, the advanced systems now in service with Russia’s armed forces
launch event. Finally, 1 March saw the team launch the book at the IISS–
call ‘into question a key element of NATO’s plan, initiated in Wales, rapidly
Americas office in Washington DC, where the audience included defence
to reinforce allies.’ Meanwhile, 2015 saw the first sign of defence-budget
industrialists, government officials
stabilisation in Europe since 2008. The book contains analysis indicating
and journalists.
that, while reaching NATO’s 2% target will be difficult, some states – par-
The Military Balance 2016 is
ticularly in Europe’s east and north – are now registering real increases in
packed with defence facts and
defence outlays. That said, continuing the recent trend, ‘Asia now spends
objective analysis, as well as charts,
nearly US$100 billion more on defence than NATO’s European member
graphics and maps supporting
states.’
the trends outlined in the book.
The London launch was followed two weeks later by an interactive
Specialist essays focus on deterrence
webinar on the book’s conclusions, hosted by Director of Defence and
in cyberspace, developments in
Military Analysis Dr Bastian Giegerich. Subsequently, and as in previous
armoured fighting vehicle technolo-
years, members of the IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme con-
gies, and China’s ballistic missiles
ducted launches in other countries. On 25 February, simultaneous events
sector, while this year’s wall chart
took place in Brussels and Berlin. In Brussels, four team members briefed
carries analysis of Gulf region mis-
an audience of around 50, including diplomats and military profession-
sile defence capabilities.
als, at the Egmont Palace. The event was hosted by the Egmont Institute. Two team members spoke in Berlin at a launch hosted by the Korber
Watch the press launch in London or watch the IISS–Americas launch.
Is the Campaign Against ISIS Succeeding? Between late 2015 and early 2016, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, suffered battlefield reverses in the Iraqi towns of Baiji, Sinjar and Ramadi. This suggested that last year’s efforts to accelerate the campaign against ISIS were having a positive effect. Yet, major hurdles to dislodge the group in Iraq and Syria remain. On 3 February, Linda Robinson, Senior Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation, presented an assessment of the United States-led campaign to counter ISIS. Based on her research over the previous 18 months, including field trips to Iraq, Jordan and Kuwait, her analysis focused on the
Peshmerga soldiers training near Erbil, Iraq, October 2015 (US Army/Tristan Bolden)
political and military aspects of the strategy, including the alignment of political interests within Iraq and Syria and the military capabilities of the
Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at IISS, and took place at Arundel
various forces on which the counter-ISIS coalition is reliant for success on
House in London.
the ground. The discussion meeting was chaired by Brigadier (Retd) Ben
IISS NEWS
Watch the event.
MAY 2016 | 5
SOUTH ASIA
PAKISTAN
INDIA
NUCLEAR
IISS South Asia Security Workshop: Building Regional Security and Countering Extremism and Terrorism The second IISS workshop on South Asian security, supported by the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (NESA), took place at the IISS– Middle East office in Manama, Bahrain, on 23–24 April. This off-the-record track 1.5 meeting brought together 30 participants, including serving Indian and Pakistani top intelligence officers, senior government officials and diplomats, members of parliament and other influential opinionmakers from India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Nearly half the participants were attending the workshop for the first time. The discussion focused on the region’s security issues. The substantive sessions included ‘Talking to the Taliban in Afghanistan’, ‘Improving India–Pakistan Relations’ and ‘Countering Daesh/ISIS in South Asia’. For
The workshop focused on the region’s security issues
the first time, a highly interactive session on the role of the regional media in facilitating or disrupting peace processes took place. The workshop was organised by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior
for South Asia, along with IISS Conference and Events Coordinators Lilli Harkonen and Mohamed Al Shamlan. The third IISS South Asia Security
Fellow for South Asia, and Antoine Levesques, IISS Research Associate
Workshop is expected to take place in Bahrain in April 2017.
Pakistan’s Security Perspective
Deterrence at Sea – India’s Evolving Options
Pakistani forces in the Swat valley (Wikimedia)
In this key address at Arundel House on 26 April, Pakistan’s Federal
The Indian Navy’s major annual TROPEX exercise, 2014 (Indian Navy)
Minister for Interior and Narcotics Control, Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, urged the West to work alongside Muslims and adopt regional
The first naval officer to be Commander-in-Chief of India’s Strategic
approaches to fight terrorism. He noted that incidences of terrorist-related
Forces Command, Vice Admiral (Retd) Vijay Shankar, spoke in a discus-
violence in Pakistan had decreased in the first four months of 2016, fol-
sion meeting at the IISS on 31 March. Shankar talked primarily about
lowing an increase in coordination and sharing of information among
India’s Arihant class nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarine,
Pakistan’s 33 intelligence agencies.
which is expected to be commissioned shortly, and discussed the devel-
In response to a query, Nisar explained that the ambitious China–
opment of India’s nuclear programme. He explained that the INS Arihant
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project would lead to changes in
was the first of five Arihant class submarines planned to be built in India,
almost every environment of Pakistan. The Pakistan government’s pri-
the second of which was under construction. It was armed with the K-15
mary focus was on promoting, supporting and protecting this project.
missile, which has a range of 800km – the 3,500km K-4 missile would be
Nisar expressed his satisfaction at the positive state of Pakistan–UK rela-
deployed later.
tions, but called for an improvement in bilateral relations with the Afghan
Shankar called for India to develop greater strategic ties with China,
government. Following the implementation of the 20-point National
and stated that India’s deterrent relationship with China should be used as
Action Plan, the minister called for the institutionalisation of policies that
a model globally. In response to a query, he talked about how technology
reduce the targeting of minorities in Pakistan. Alongside this, Pakistan
affected deterrence stability, primarily with regard to the possibility of an
would continue to strengthen its border controls and intelligence-
increase in actors equipped with nuclear weapons in the Indian Ocean.
gathering efforts in order to improve the security situation in the country.
The meeting was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow
The meeting was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies, IISS.
for South Asia.
Watch the video.
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Listen to the event.
IISS NEWS
DEVELOPMENT
EXPERTS
Poverty Management and its Effect on Regional Stability
PAKISTAN
SOUTH ASIA
Pakistan’s Nuclear Diplomacy
18th SAARC Summit on November 26, 2014 in Kathmandu, Nepal (SAARC)
On 14 March, the IISS hosted Minister Marvi Memon, Chair of the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) and Minister of State in Pakistan, for a private roundtable meeting on poverty management. Memon explored the role of the BISP, which was Pakistan’s largest social safety net, in empow-
Former Pakistani Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Sarwar Naqvi, with Antoine Levesques, Research Associate for South Asia at the IISS
ering women and educating children to manage poverty in Pakistan. She outlined the BISP’s new health insurance initiative, as well as plans to
One of Pakistan’s top diplomatic priorities is to negotiate its entry into
encourage the vulnerable to vaccinate their children and introduce family
the ‘mainstream’ of the global nuclear order as a ‘responsible’ nuclear
planning. Memon then detailed how the BISP was encouraging self-
state. But Pakistan’s access to international markets for peaceful uses of
employment through their newly established e-commerce system. She
nuclear energy should not be misconstrued as or preconditioned on ‘nor-
called for an increase in knowledge sharing on poverty-management strat-
malising’ Pakistan as a de facto nuclear weapons state. This was the key
egies in South Asia, through platforms such as the South Asian Association
message of former Pakistani Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Sarwar Naqvi,
for Regional Cooperation.
on 4 May.
Following the question and answer session High Commissioner for
Speaking at Arundel House on ‘Pakistan’s Nuclear Diplomacy’,
Pakistan to the United Kingdom, Syed Ibne Abbas, provided additional
Ambassador Naqvi delivered a wide-ranging set of remarks and dis-
remarks on poverty management and alleviation in Pakistan and the
cussion points, which provided a comprehensive overview and robust
successes of BISP. The meeting was also attended by Philip Barton, a
defence of Pakistan’s positions on key international nuclear policy debates,
senior FCO official and, until recently, the British High Commissioner to
its stance on its own defence and deterrence posture, and relations with
Pakistan. It was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for
India. The event was chaired by Antoine Levesques, Research Associate
South Asia.
for South Asia at the IISS.
Listen to the event.
Listen to the event.
PUBLICATIONS
Survival: Global Politics and Strategy In the April–May 2016 issue of Survival, Ariel Ahram and Ellen Lust explore the decline and fall of the Arab state; Michael Boyle warns of a coming illiberal order; Stephen Larrabee explores the Kurdish issue; Daniel Fiott suggests paying for NATO defence infrastructure with EU funds; Stephan Frühling and Guillaume Lasconjarias take on
The IISS welcomes
Carol Reed
the following:
Director of Communications
Ben Carey Director of
NATO’s Kaliningrad problem; Tomasz Paszewski asks if
Operations
Poland is ready to defend itself; Matthias Matthijs con-
Holly Marriott
siders German power; Bastian Giegerich and Maximilian Terhalle discuss the Munich consensus; Jonathan Caverley and Ethan Kapstein analyse Asian arms imports; Russell Crandall and Wade Leach contribute a review essay on history and policy; Gilles Andréani, Ray Takeyh, David Unger and H.R. McMaster review recent books; and Dana Allin investigates Donald Trump’s America.
IISS NEWS
Appointments
Webb Editorial Assistant, Online Sonam Rabadia Junior Accounts Assistant
Leigh Morris Sloane Managing Director, IISS–Americas Sam Nugée Director-General’s Office Coordinator Jonathan Stevenson Senior Fellow for US Defence; Editor of Strategic Comments
MAY 2016 | 7
ARMED CONFLICT
ARMED CONFLICT SURVEY
UKRAINE
CONFLICT RESOLUTION
The IISS Armed Conflict Survey 2016: Media Launch On 5 May, the 2016 edition of the Armed Conflict Survey was launched at Arundel House, with a keynote presentation by Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, author of the book’s chapter on ‘Pessimism and Planning in Armed Conflict’. Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of the IISS, then presented the principal findings of the 2016 survey, concerning the distribution of conflict fatalities globally; the recovery of territory from insurgents by states, with foreign assistance; the multi-front battle against ISIS; the surge in the number of refugees and IDPs; and the
IISS experts talk with members of the press following the launch
threat from foreign fighters. Fatalities in the 37 active conflicts covered by the Armed Conflict Survey
fielded those questions comprised Dr
amounted to 167,000 in 2015, of which 50% occurred in the Middle East
Anastasia Voronkova, Research Fellow for
and 21% in Latin America. Six conflicts – Syria, Iraq, Central America,
Armed Conflict and Editor of Armed Conflict
Mexico, Nigeria (Boko Haram) and Afghanistan – accounted for four-fifths
Survey; Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow
of the total. Despite the rising death toll in Nigeria, fatalities fell markedly
for Security and Development; Hebatalla
in sub-Saharan Africa and some conflicts there registered de-escalation
Taha, Research Analyst at IISS–Middle East;
and progress towards conflict resolution.
and Jens Wardenaer, Research Analyst for
Questions from the assembled press representatives concerned rising
Armed Conflict.
fatalities in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen, the use of
Watch the event. Members can buy the
unmanned aerial vehicles, the trajectory of the Darfur conflict and changes
2016 Armed Conflict Survey at a 50% discount
in headline fatality and displacement figures in 2014–15. The panel that
for a limited time.
Conflict Management in Ukraine: A Frontline Perspective On 11 April, the Armed Conflict Programme hosted a discussion meeting with Dr Samir Puri, Lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. Puri shared his experience as a member of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in eastern Ukraine and highlighted the relative success of measures put into place to influence the scope, direction and dynamics of the conflict. He noted that the presence of Russians in the OSCE Mission could be viewed positively, as it created opportuni-
US and Ukraine training near Yavoriv, Ukraine, as part of Fearless Guardian II (US Army/Adriana M. Diaz-Brown)
ties for dialogue and cooperation, even if only within the framework of the Mission. He further discussed the devastating impact of the conflict on
The meeting was held at Arundel House and was chaired by Dr Anastasia
Ukraine’s economy, as well as the stark contrast between the east’s peri-
Voronkova, Research Fellow for Armed Conflict and the Armed Conflict
ods of escalation and de-escalation compared to the rest of the country.
Database at the IISS.
Understanding the Strategies of Non-state Actors in Armed Conflict: A Comparative Study
within the Armed Conflict Programme. Firstly, she highlighted the usefulness of understanding how armed actors justify violent collective action to their audiences and supporters, and how shifts in perception can explain the success of some non-state armed groups over others, especially in the Middle East. Secondly, she drew on examples to assess possible factors contributing to the spillover of conflict, including the diffusion of informa-
On 18 January, the IISS held a discussion meeting with Dr Anastasia
tion via social media. Thirdly, Voronkova suggested that conflict legacies
Voronkova, Research Fellow for Armed Conflict and the Armed Conflict
were not always entirely negative if the efforts of governments were
Database at the IISS. Voronkova addressed three prevailing themes in con-
directed towards reorganising communal interaction in less violent ways.
flict research, all of which constitute potential avenues for future research
The discussion was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at IISS.
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MAY 2016
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
ENERGY SECURITY
MIDDLE EAST
GEO-ECONOMICS
ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY
The Security of Oil Trade: A Regional Geo-economics Perspective On 3 February, the IISS–Middle East office hosted three panellists in Bahrain to discuss the importance of secure trade routes and geopolitical factors affecting their viability. Addressing industry risks, Sheikh Al Khalifa, Chief Executive of Nogaholding, said the price of oil no longer reflected the implications of risk, warning that this development was
Oman and Iran, separated by the Strait of Hormuz (nasa.gov/Stuart Rankin)
‘not very wise’. He emphasised that the impact of changing oil prices on oil-dependent Gulf countries had been widely underestimated as
and Energy Studies, noted that changes in the status quo had fundamental
a risk. Dr Jarmo Kotilaine, Chief Economist at the Bahrain Economic
impacts on the security of trade routes.
Development Board, spoke of the technological advances and significant
Chairing the panel was Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior
re-configurations in the supply side of the oil market in recent years.
Fellow for Economic and Energy Security at the IISS, who presented risk
He characterised American oil production as a short-lived ‘renaissance’,
analyses of two key trade routes in the Middle East and Southeast Asia on
forecasting that the old powers would reassert their dominance in the
behalf of Asian energy importers. He discussed the value of new pipeline
industry.
systems in alleviating the risks of maritime insecurity in the South China
Meanwhile, Dr Omar Al-Ubaydli, Program Director for International and Geo-Political Studies at the Bahrain Centre for Strategic, International
Sea and highlighted the concentrated reliance on the Middle East. Watch the event.
Security of Seaborne Oil and Gas Trade: An Economic Approach Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security at the IISS, presented his key findings on the implications of maritime insecurity in the Middle East and Southeast Asia at Arundel House on 27 January. Noël discussed changing security dynamics in Asian and Middle
USS Ronald Reagan in the Strait of Malacca (Kevin B. Gray/US Navy)
Eastern areas that were directly tied to Asian energy suppliers, exacerbating existing threats to the global energy market. Emphasising the link
behalf of Asian energy importers. Additionally he discussed the value of
between maritime security and energy-supply security, Noël presented
new pipeline systems that would alleviate the risks of maritime insecurity
figures on the costs of insuring Asian energy imports, as well as risk
in the South China Sea. The meeting was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, IISS
analyses conducted on two key trade routes in the Middle East (Strait of
Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs.
Hormuz) and Southeast Asia (Strait of Malacca and South China Sea) on
Watch the event.
EUROPEAN STRATEGY
Peace Without Money, War Without Americans – Can European Strategy Cope?
of shifting its strategic focus to Asia and the Pacific. Noting that the EU was in the process of drawing up a replacement to the 2003 European Security Strategy, Biscop put forward four questions that the result must address. Firstly, the question of global governance – what should Europe’s position be on reform? Secondly, the question of how to deal with cer-
Professor Dr Sven Biscop, Director of the Europe in the World programme
tain individual powers like Russia and China. Thirdly, the question of the
at Egmont – The Royal Institute for International Relations, discussed some
broader European neighbourhood – through the European Neighbourhood
of the challenges facing the EU with Dr Bastian Giegerich, IISS Director of
Policy the EU attempts to promote its values to the immediate south and
Defence and Military Analysis, on 4 February.
east, but has had mixed success. How should Europe proceed on this
Biscop argued that Europe faced a ‘double challenge’: to resolutely act
front? Fourthly, and finally, Biscop questioned what role Europe should
to protect vital interests in its neighbourhood while most of its member
play when things go wrong, and whether or not it should take on the role
states were in the grip of austerity and while the US was in the process
of a security provider.
IISS NEWS
MAY 2016 | 9
FUTURE CONFLICT AND CYBER SECURITY
CYBER SECURITY
SPACE
EXPERTS
The Strategic Aspects of Space On 19 April, Arundel House welcomed Sir Martin Sweeting OBE, the Executive Chairman of Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. (SSTL), to speak about the strategic importance of space to the United Kingdom. Founded in the 1970s by Sir Martin, SSTL pioneered rapid-response, low-cost and highly capable small satellites, using modern consumer electronics to change the economy of space. The advancements in the field of small satellites made by Sir Martin have shaped today’s space domain. With much lower barriers to entry, there has been a proliferation of small satellites, and almost all states today are dependent upon space to some
A large array of radio telescopes (ESO/Babak Tafreshi)
degree. Sir Martin spoke about a series of interrelated concerns, including the
risk of non-state actors dominating in space. The meeting was chaired by
benefits to the UK of acquiring a sovereign observation capability, the role
Nigel Inkster, Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security at the IISS,
that satellites would play in the 5G ecosystem, the big data opportunities
and a copy of Sir Martin’s slideshow is available on the website.
and challenges presented by the continuous monitoring of earth, and the
Listen to the event.
Academic Network Workshop
Track 1.5 Dialogue on Cyber Security
In late February, the Future Conflict and Cyber Security
In March, delegates from Chinese
programme convened a meeting of the Academic Network
government
on behalf of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to
research institution China Institutes of
discuss the feasibility of the UK government adopting
Contemporary International Relations
elements of a multi-stakeholder approach in international
joined UK government representatives,
cyber security. Participants discussed the applicability of
academics and IISS staff for a track 1.5
the multi-stakeholder model to internet governance as
dialogue on the topic of cyber security.
well as the roles that the private sector, academia and civil society can take in furthering the international cyber security agenda.
agencies
and
the
This meeting, held in London, focused A US cyber transport systems technician (USAF/ George Goslin)
Following the workshop, the programme held a stu-
on cooperation between the UK and China on issues of cyber security, and how this can improve prosperity for
dent essay competition in order to recruit the next generation of academics to this network. Two essays were
each country.
selected by our panel, and their authors met with IISS experts in April.
Survival Seminar: Encryption Policy and the Darknet On 3 February, the IISS hosted security studies Professor Thomas Rid and PhD Candidate Daniel Moore, both from King’s College London, to speak about their recent lead article in the February–March 2016 issue of Survival, ‘Cryptopolitik and the Darknet’. The ground-breaking study – downloaded more than 30,000 times, making it Survival’s most-read article online – examined the material contained on the darknet, the encrypted hidden services provided by the Tor Project. With their research showing that the primary uses for the darknet
(EFF-Graphics)
are illicit, they argued that the darknet demonstrates the need for each application of encryption to be judged on its merits, in order to prevent
of Survival and Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic
legitimate uses of encryption being undermined. The meeting was held
Affairs.
at Arundel House in London and was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Editor
10
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MAY 2016
Watch the event.
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
RUSSIA
NATO
UNITED STATES
GEO-ECONOMICS
RUSSIA–EURASIA
Survival Seminar: The Nature of the Russian Threat to NATO On 17 December, IISS–Americas hosted a lecture to discuss articles from the December 2015–January
2016
edition
of
Survival.
Chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, the event featured Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, Jonathan Solomon, Senior Systems and Technology Analyst at Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc., and Elbridge Colby, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Co-authors of ‘Facing Russia: Conventional Defence and
Swedish forces in Norway, February 2016, during Exercise Cold Response 16 which involved troops from 13 NATO and partner countries (US Marine Corps/Rebecca Floto)
Deterrence in Europe’, Colby and Solomon claimed that it was unclear if NATO had the strategy or capabilities to counter Russian aggression. In
Russia and NATO was unlikely because Russia’s objectives in Ukraine
order for NATO to achieve credible conventional deterrence, they argued,
were limited and specific. As such, he stated that the conflict in Ukraine
it must be able to ‘delay, disrupt, and deny’ Russia’s potential attacks
should not be seen as a template for a potential conflict between Russia
using ground, air, and naval forces, strategic logistics, and centralised
and NATO. Moreover, he questioned why NATO should doubt the effec-
command and control. A ‘tripwire’ approach – deterrence by punishment
tiveness of deterrence by punishment, given its long successful track
– was inadequate; NATO needed deterrence by denial. Author of ‘The
record during the Cold War and beyond.
Ghost of Hybrid War’, Charap contended that a ‘hybrid’ war between
Report Launch: The US and Russia in the Asia-Pacific
Watch the video.
Prospects for Russia’s Economy
Russian President Vladimir Putin with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping (kremlin.ru)
On 30 March, IISS–Americas launched ‘The US and Russia in the Asia-
Lunskoye-A offshore gas production platform, near Sakhalin Island, Russia (Pixabay)
Pacific’, the product of a two-year collaboration between the IISS and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations
On 13 April, Dr Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Management Board of the
(IMEMO). Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia
Institute for Contemporary Development (Russia) and a member of the
and one of the report’s authors, introduced its findings and chaired the
IISS Council, gave a presentation at Arundel House on Russia’s economy.
discussion. Dr Vasily Mikheev, Deputy Director of IMEMO and another
Yurgens presented an insightful analysis of Russia’s recent economic per-
author of the report, presented his views on Russian foreign policy in the
formance in the wake of the fall in oil prices and the imposition of Western
Asia-Pacific. Dr Kurt Campbell, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of
sanctions. In particular he drew attention to the fall in real incomes,
the Asia Group and former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and
which marked the current crisis out from previous ones. Yurgens also
the Pacific, discussed key issues facing the US and Russia in the region, as
addressed the political impediments to undertaking structural reform,
well as potential areas for cooperation. Dr. Charap highlighted the short-
and spoke about Russia’s internal politics and the downturn in relations
term policy recommendations from the report for both Russia and the US
with Western states. The meeting was chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman,
regarding their bilateral interactions in the Asia-Pacific region.
Director of Editorial.
Watch the video and download the report.
IISS NEWS
Watch the video.
MAY 2016 | 11
IISS–AMERICAS
TERRORISM AND SECURITY
NORTH AFRICA
Book Launch – Evolution of the Cyber Domain: The Implications for National and Global Security
COUNTER-TERRORISM
EXPERTS
Book Launch – North Africa in Transition: The Struggle for Democracies and Institutions On 20 January, the latest Adelphi book on North Africa was launched at IISS–Americas in Washington DC. The panel included the book’s editor, Ben Fishman, Haim Malka, one of its contributing authors from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Egypt and Maghreb Affairs
An exercise at Nellis Air Force Base, Nev (USAF/ Brett Clashman)
John Desrocher.
On 5 April, IISS–Americas hosted a launch of the new strategic dossier on
addressing the core arguments of the
cyber security with Nigel Inkster, Director of Future Conflict and Cyber
book, namely how different institu-
Security, Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas, Consulting Senior Fellow for Future
tions produced different outcomes
Conflict and Cyber Security, and Dr Mika Kerttunen, Director of Research
during the Arab Spring, as well as the role of the US and its European
for the Cyber Policy Institute.
allies in investing resources in the Maghreb. He highlighted Libya as a
Fishman opened the discussion by
Inkster explained that there are three leading global cyber powers:
case study for the need to empower local governments and promote intra-
China, Russia and the US. Each of these countries viewed the cyber domain
regional cooperation, rather than allowing the West to take full ownership.
differently; China and Russia believed that each nation should be able to
Malka expanded this analysis to the wider Maghreb region, characteris-
manage its cyber domain the way it saw fit, while the US had taken the
ing Algeria as the ‘lynchpin’ of the entire Middle East and forecasting a
stance that international law should prevail. These opposing views had
‘rough year’ of economic stagnation, growing radicalism and a lack of sus-
raised questions over the role that international norms play in governing
tainable government action. Desrocher emphasised the need for strategic
international law and policy. Tikk-Ringas emphasised that the purpose of
cooperation to counter violent extremism, enhance border security and
launching this strategic dossier was to bring some of these issues to light
remove economic barriers. The panellists agreed on the need for the US to
and to start a dialogue on ICT as a new avenue of national and normative
take a measured, long-term approach to promote cooperation on several
power. The event was held in Washington DC and was chaired by Mark
fronts, while also taking into account indigenous perspectives. The launch
Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas.
was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas.
Watch the event.
Watch the event.
The Changing Nature of Terrorism and Counterterrorism Speaking on 24 February at a discussion meeting on the evolution of terrorism and counterterrorism, Daniel Byman, a professor in the Security Studies Program at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, stated that ‘a worldwide counterterrorism machine went into gear’ after 9/11 and had been growing ever since. He went on to explain that, due to the growth in terrorism threats, there had been global cooperation to fight terrorism as ‘the whole world has become the CIA.’ Byman suggested that Western states were increasingly consumed by fear as ISIS’ global expansion contin-
US forces in Afghanistan, 2013 (Justin Young/US Army)
ued, posing new challenges to politics and security. Meanwhile, Bruce Hoffman, Director of Georgetown University’s
remained as to whether someone would intervene and, if they did, what
Center for Security Studies, spoke of how ISIS was creating a message of
happened next. The meeting was held in Washington DC and was chaired
‘empowerment, hatred with desire for revenge and retaliation’, suggesting
by Donald Daniel, a retired professor from the Center for Security Studies
the West had misread the threat as the Islamic State continued to grow.
at Georgetown University.
Both speakers agreed that, as the world tried to fight terrorism, questions
12
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MAY 2016
Watch the event.
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
IRAN
GULF STATES
GEOPOLITICS
IISS–AMERICAS
Western Defence Reassurances to Gulf Arabs After the Iran Deal: Are We on the Same Page? On 21 April, Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas, chaired a 90-minute panel discussion featuring four panelists with extensive knowledge of defence reassurances after the Iran nuclear deal. The panel included Ellen Laipson, IISS Council Member and President Emeritus
Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Mohammad Javad Zarif, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Iran (EEAS)
of the Stimson Center; Michael Eisenstadt, Military and Security Studies Program Director at the Washington Institute; Caroline Hurndall MBE,
that establishing a personal relationship with Gulf countries was essential
Head of the Middle East Team at the British Embassy in Washington; and
to the overall security of the region. There were, however, mixed views as
Bilal Saab, Resident Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the Atlantic
to whether arms sales from NATO countries were complementary or com-
Council.
petitive. While Eisenstadt said that the current US administration had only
The discussion considered whether post-Iran deal arms sales to Gulf
further complicated relations in the region by increasing arms sales to Gulf
Cooperation Council countries met the goal of reassurance and how the
states, Hurndall was more optimistic, explaining that the relationships that
sales were affecting the geopolitics of the region. There was general con-
were forged were not transactional in nature and would help foster long-
sensus among the panel that the reaction by Gulf states to the Iran deal
term, personal relationships.
had not been the one that the US and its allies had hoped to achieve, and
Survival Seminar: The Coming Illiberal Order
Watch the event.
Iran After the Nuclear Deal On 9 December, IISS–Americas hosted a roundtable with Dr Ali Ansari, Director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews. The discussion touched upon Iran’s internal politics, as well as its role in the region following the recent nuclear negotiations that resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. When considering whether the negotiations would lead to political reforms on top of the lifting of sanctions, Ansari suggested that any reform would require structural changes within the Islamic Republic that had not yet been seen. He emphasised the re-election challenges Iranian President Hassan Rouhani would face in 2017 if the economy continued to stagnate, and stated that, although improved US–Iran relations were far off on the horizon, there might be agreement between the two countries on some issues. Ansari concluded by urging caution in dealing
UN headquarters, New York (UN/Manuel Elias)
with Iran, saying it would seize the opportunity to provoke the West if any signs of weakness were shown. Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of the
Following the recent Survival article ‘The Coming Illiberal Order’, IISS–
IISS–Americas, chaired the event, which took place in Washington DC.
Americas hosted author Dr Michael Boyle, Assistant Professor of Political Science at La Salle University, to speak about his analysis of the new international order. Boyle argued that the world was experiencing a resurgence in illiberal principles and authoritarian rule, while liberalism was on the decline. These
IISS–US becomes IISS–Americas
illiberal principles were at odds with the system that the US had imple-
The IISS office in Washington DC, which has been known as IISS–US since
mented and, according to Boyle, the refusal to abide by American rules is
its inception in 2001, has been rebranded as IISS–Americas. This name
an attempt to be recognised as equals on the international stage. He pre-
reflects the broader responsibilities of the office to represent the Institute
dicted that – in the absence of an unforeseen catalyst – this change would
and to continue to engage with policymaking communities, multilateral
occur slowly over time, and, although it would not remove the institutions
organisations, non-governmental organisations and multinational corpo-
that currently exist (such as the United Nations), their politics would adjust
rations throughout North and South America. The first formal event at the
to reflect the interests of the illiberal states. He also noted that alliances
Washington office under the new brand will be held on 24 May, featuring
between states were becoming more fluid and adaptable to the demands
former Canadian ambassador to Cuba Mark Entwistle, who will be offer-
of its members, and that in order for the US to preserve its power, it must
ing lessons on the Canadian experience to American businesses and other
become more flexible. The event was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Editor of
organisations keen to take advantage of America’s re-engagement with
Survival and Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs.
Cuba. More from IISS–Americas.
IISS NEWS
MAY 2016 | 13
IISS–MIDDLE EAST
ISLAMIC STATE
EGYPT
EXPERTS
COUNTER-TERRORISM
Islamic State and the Failures of the War on Terror
Adelphi Launch – Egypt After the Spring: Revolt and Reaction On 2 March, Arundel House saw the launch of an Adelphi volume of considerable scholarly analysis of post-Arab Spring Egypt. The panel, chaired by Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, included Michael Hanna, Senior
Fellow
Foundation, US aircraft refuel over northern Iraq (USAF/Matthew Bruch)
at
and
the IISS
Century Research
Analyst Hebatalla Taha. The ninechapter volume includes chapters
At a discussion meeting held on 29 February at Arundel House David
written by Emile Hokayem, Professor
Kilcullen, Former Counterinsurgency Advisor in Iraq and to the NATO
Nathan J. Brown, Professor Ellis
Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, considered the West’s options
Goldberg, Dr Zeinab Abul-Magd,
for facing the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, in light of its finan-
Yasser El-Shimy, Michael Hanna,
cial and armed capabilities, and recent developments in the Middle East.
Dr H.A. Hellyer, Gamal Hassan,
He discussed the factors that led to the failure of the counter-terrorism
Hebatalla Taha and Mohamed El Dahshan. The book spans the turbulent
strategy of the US and its allies, the rise of ISIS amid the splintering of the
transition from the uprising against Hosni Mubarak in early 2011, through
Iraqi government and the anti-Assad movement in Syria, and the reasons
the election and removal of Muhammad Morsi, until Abdel Fattah Al Sisi’s
behind the influx of foreign fighters to the Islamic State from Europe, Asia
gain and consolidation of presidential powers by late 2015. The panel shed
and Africa. The event was chaired by Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Future
light on the politics, power players, economy, security challenges and for-
Conflict and Cyber Security.
eign policy of Egypt, and offered insight into where the future might lead.
Watch the video.
Islamic State: Middle East Islamic Radicalism Goes Global
Watch the video.
Global Jihadism: Going Backwards?
Suspects in the 2016 Brussels bombings (Wikimedia) Scene from an ISIS video (Flickr)
On 29 February, Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber On 24 February, the IISS hosted a corporate breakfast at Arundel House
Security, hosted a webinar on global jihadism and why radicalisation
with Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle
appears to be on the rise. He discussed the emergence of the Islamic State,
East. He discussed the origins and modern incarnation of the Islamic State,
also known as ISIS or ISIL, in a setting where many thought Islamic radi-
also known as ISIS or ISIL, as well as its organisational structure, capac-
calism had been exhausted by al-Qaeda’s defeat and Osama bin Laden’s
ity and ideological appeal. Dodge examined the ability of ISIS to regroup
death in 2011. The discussion covered the unpredictable nature of ISIS
and remobilise after battlefield losses beyond its conventional operational
fighters and their higher levels of military experience and sophistication,
borders in Iraq and Syria and, with its appeal to sympathisers in other
along with future scenarios and potential policies to confront this threat.
regions, to speed up the recruitment of volunteers for suicide bomb attacks
The webinar was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.
overseas.
14
|
MAY 2016
Listen to the webinar.
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
TERRORISM AND SECURITY
The Saudi–Iran Competition in the Middle East
IRAN
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
IISS–MIDDLE EAST
Syria: Between Escalation and Diplomacy
Syrian Opposition Council Chairman Moaz al-Khatib, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and US Secretary of State John Kerry in Istanbul, 2013
Russian intervention has fundamentally changed the battlefield dynamics in Syria, argued Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, at an Arundel House discussion meeting on 3 March. Targeted
Air strike in Sana’a, Yemen, 2015 (Ibrahem Qasim)
strikes had quickly weakened the rebels in key areas, leading to significant At a corporate breakfast held at Arundel House on 3 March Emile
gains on the battlefield and a guaranteed role for the Syrian regime in any
Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the IISS, examined the
negotiated settlement. Hokayem highlighted the growing popularity of
drivers and dynamics of the Saudi Arabia–Iran competition in the Middle
Jabhat al-Nusra among rebel groups in light of increased pressure from
East. Hokayem argued that this rivalry had become the primary fault
regime and Russian forces, and argued that these allegiances could fun-
line in the region, playing out primarily in the weak states and divided
damentally change the outlook of the conflict as rebels began to pursue
societies of the Arab world, exacerbating sectarianism. He noted that the
guerrilla tactics to fight Assad. Hokayem maintained that the Munich
strategies and policy instruments of both regional powers differed signifi-
agreement merely signified a reduction in violence, not a ceasefire, and
cantly, as did their respective expertise, experience and strategic patience.
warned that blocking humanitarian assistance continued to be a weapon
Hokayem concluded that the still unclear outcome of the Syrian crisis
in the hands of the Assad regime. The discussion was chaired by Adam
would matter more for the regional balance of power than the resolution
Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS. Watch the video.
of the Yemen conflict.
The Islamic State’s The Evolution of Jihadism Aspirations and Its Reality IISS Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, Dr Nelly Lahoud, gave a public lecture On 19 April, Dr Nelly Lahoud, IISS Senior Fellow for
at Arundel House on 20 April that pre-
Political Islamism, spoke at a corporate breakfast that
sented key events in the evolution of
explored the extent to which the Islamic State’s, also
jihadism in the context of the broader
known as ISIS or ISIL, state-building aspirations are in
sphere of political Islam. The lecture
sync with the group’s reality. She argued that although
highlighted similarities and differences
the volume of violence the group had generated and
within that sphere, and what these might
its capacity to commit more should not be underes-
mean for the future of jihadism. Lahoud
timated, ISIS was not only failing to hold on to the
covered the evolution of the Islamic
territory it had captured but it was also unable to exer-
State and discussed its differences with
cise a monopoly over the jihadi landscape. The most
al-Qaeda, particularly the irreconcilable
glaring failure of ISIS’ state-building project, Lahoud
ideological differences between the two
contended, was its inability to attract Syrian refugees,
groups. She argued that the outright
who were prepared to risk their lives to get to Europe
rejection of positive law upon which jihadism is premised limits the jihadis’ ability to reach
rather than seek refuge in the ‘caliphate’ next door. The
compromises, leaving them with a paradigm that necessarily favours literalism and rigidity
presentation was attended by members of the govern-
in interpreting religious texts. She concluded that while jihadism was not destined to be suc-
ment and corporate sectors, and was chaired by Dr
cessful, it was likely to feature more extremism and internal splits. The event was chaired by
Dana Allin, IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy
Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East.
and Transatlantic Affairs and Editor of Survival.
IISS NEWS
Al-Zaatari camp for Syrian refugees in Jordan (Mustafa Bader)
Watch the video.
MAY 2016 | 15
NON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR POLICY
NON-PROLIFERATION
EAST ASIA
SANCTIONS
EXPERTS
Survival Seminar: Nuclear Weapons Adelphi Launch - Asia’s Latent and the Scottish Independence Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea Debate and Taiwan
UK Royal Navy nuclear-powered submarine HMS Ambush (Crown Copyright/ Thomas McDonald)
Wolsong nuclear power plant, South Korea (IAEA)
On 4 December 2015, the first in a series of seminars chaired by Dr
On 18 February, Mark Fitzpatrick held the first European launch of his
Matthew Harries, Managing Editor of Survival, addressed the questions
new Adelphi book, Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and
raised in William Walker’s article ‘Trident’s Replacement and the Survival
Taiwan. The book examines under what conditions the democracies in
of the United Kingdom’, published in the October–November 2015 issue
Northeast Asia might seek to join the nuclear-weapons club. They are all
of Survival. Walker, Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the
threshold nuclear powers by virtue of their robust civilian nuclear-energy
University of St Andrews, argued that by ignoring Scottish parliamentary
programmes, all three once pursued nuclear weapons and all face nuclear-
opposition to Trident’s renewal and its base in the Clyde, the UK gov-
armed adversaries. The book analyses these past nuclear pursuits and
ernment risked contributing to pressure for Scottish independence. He
current proliferation drivers. It considers how long it would take each to
suggested that if Scotland were to become independent – a possibility that
build a nuclear weapon if such a fateful decision were made, but does not
should not be discounted – the future of the UK’s nuclear deterrent would
predict such a scenario. It argues that reliance on US defence commitments
be jeopardised.
is a better security alternative, as long as such guarantees remain credible. Listen to the event. The book was also launched by IISS–Americas in New York and Washington DC. Watch the video.
What the Iran Nuclear Accord Means for Sanctions Today and Tomorrow
Iran Nuclear Deal Implementation: Hiccups and Hurdles
In an ongoing collaboration with the United Nations Panel of Experts on
Speaking at this IISS corporate breakfast at Arundel House on 14 April,
Iran, the IISS Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme held a
Mark Fitzpatrick noted that on the surface, implementation of the Iran
workshop in London on 14 January to discuss the Joint Comprehensive
nuclear accord was on track. Iran continued to honour the limits on its
Plan of Action (JCPOA) and its impact on the various sanctions regimes in
uranium enrichment programme and it was receiving frozen revenues
place until Implementation Day. The workshop, chaired by programme
and resuming oil sales. The Iranian public showed its enthusiasm for
director Mark Fitzpatrick, convened 44 industry representatives together
the deal by voting in February for the most moderate candidates who
with government officials and experts from the UN panel and the IISS.
were allowed to run. However, he argued, hardliners retained control
The meeting was primarily devoted to UN sanctions, the timetable for
of most key power centres and they were pursuing policies, including
phasing them out and the transition in some cases to ‘restrictions’ under
an aggressive missile launch schedule, that were sparking a backlash in
the JCPOA. It also included discussion of conventional arms transfers,
Washington. Meanwhile, sanctions relief had produced fewer benefits
Iran’s ballistic missile programme and the ‘Procurement Channel’ meant
than Iran expected, due to the reluctance of Western banks to handle trans-
to supply the legitimate needs of Iran’s nuclear programme. The seminar
actions. Both sides accused the other of violating the spirit of the accord.
concluded with a detailed overview of the JCPOA’s impact on US and EU
As troubling as these claims were, they pointed to the potential for new
sanctions.
diplomatic initiatives to address respective concerns.
16
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MAY 2016
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
NORTH KOREA
The Iran Nuclear Deal: Challenges of Implementation
IRAN
NON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR POLICY
Double Take: The Iran Nuclear Deal and North Korea’s Nuclear Test
Military parade, North Korea (Flickr) IAEA Safeguard inspectors (Dean Calma / IAEA)
Dr Gary Samore, Executive Director for Research at the Belfer Center at On 15 December 2015, Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy
Harvard University, discussed recent nuclear events with Adam Ward,
and Transatlantic Affairs, chaired a discussion meeting with Dr Robert
Director of Studies at the IISS, on 19 January. Samore, former Director of
Litwak, Vice President of the Woodrow Wilson Center. Litwak argued
Studies at the IISS, used his homecoming discussion meeting to explore
that many of the challenges likely to arise during implementation of the
the question of how America’s chosen diplomatic strategy to prevent
Iran deal were anticipated during the negotiations. On the surface, the deal
nuclear proliferation managed to produce one result in Iran and a totally
was a straightforward trade-off between technology and transparency, but
different one in North Korea. Samore, once described by President Barack
underlying that both the Obama administration and the Iranian Supreme
Obama as ‘my nuclear guy’, argued that the difference in results achieved
Leader had made a tacit transformational bet: the Obama administration
by the Obama administration could be explained by three main factors: the
bet that Iran woud be in a different place in 15 years, and the Supreme
status of each country’s nuclear programme, the type of government and
Leader bet that Iran could pocket the economic benefits and ‘prevent the
its motivations for having a nuclear programme, and the amount of lever-
contagion’ at the same time.
age America was able to bring to bear on the problem.
Listen to the event.
Watch the event.
PUBLICATIONS
New Adelphi Books
take each to build a nuclear weapon if such a fateful decision were made
Adelphi 455
down a nuclear path, democracy and a free press now prevail as barriers
Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
to building bombs in the basement. Reliance on US defence commitments
Mark Fitzpatrick
is a better security alternative – as long as such guarantees remain credible.
Under what conditions would the democracies in Northeast Asia seek
But extended deterrence is not a barrier to proliferation of sensitive nuclear
to join the nuclear weapons club? Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are
technologies. Nuclear hedging by its Northeast Asian partners will chal-
threshold nuclear powers by virtue of their robust civilian nuclear-energy
lenge Washington’s nuclear diplomacy.
but does not predict such a scenario. Unlike when each previously went
programmes. All three once pursued nuclear weapons and all face nucleararmed adversaries. Fitzpatrick’s latest book analyses these past nuclear
Adelphi 453–454
pursuits and current proliferation drivers. It considers how long it would
Egypt After the Spring: Revolt and Reaction Edited by Emile Hokayem with Hebatalla Taha This Adelphi volume brings together senior scholars as well as rising analysts of Egypt to examine the tumultuous period from the January 2011 uprising against Hosni Mubarak, via the election and ouster of Muhammad Morsi, to the consolidation of presidential power under Abdel Fattah Al‑Sisi by late 2015. The nine authors provide a sober, in-depth look at the country’s contested politics, institutional and political players, struggling economy, constant foreign policy and evolving security challenges. The nine chapters are written by Professor Nathan J. Brown, Professor Ellis Goldberg, Dr Zeinab Abul-Magd, Yasser El-Shimy, Michael Wahid Hanna, Dr H.A. Hellyer, Gamal Hassan, Hebatalla Taha and Mohamed El Dahshan.
IISS NEWS
MAY 2016 | 17
PUBLICATIONS ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue publications
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Forthcoming Adelphi Book
ing to invest in the global commons,
Adelphi 456
try’s growth and modernisation
China’s Cyber Power
will lead inexorably to democratic
Nigel Inkster
political reform. This Adelphi book
China’s emergence as a major global power is reshaping the cyber domain.
examines
The country has the world’s largest internet-user community, a growing eco-
cal and cultural development of
nomic footprint and increasingly capable military and intelligence services.
China’s cyber power, in light of
Harnessing these assets, it is pursuing a patient, assertive foreign policy that
its evolving internet, intelligence
seeks to determine how information and communications technologies are
structures, military capabilities and
governed and deployed. This policy is likely to have significant normative
approach to global governance. As
impact, with potentially adverse implications for a global order that has been
China attempts to gain the economic
shaped by Western liberal democracies. And, even as China goes out into the
benefits that come with global
world, there are signs that new technologies are becoming powerful tools for
connectivity while excluding infor-
domestic social control and the suppression of dissent abroad.
mation seen as a threat to stability,
Western policymakers are struggling to meet this challenge. While there is much potential for good in a self-confident China that is will-
Forthcoming Strategic Dossier: Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2016: Key developments and trends
there is no guarantee that the coun-
the
political,
histori-
the West will be forced to adjust to a world in which its technological edge is fast eroding and can no longer be taken for granted.
expected at the Dialogue in 2016 and subsequent years: •
The role of the Asian major powers – China, India and Japan – in regional security.
•
Maritime
security
chal-
including
the
Each year since 2002, the International Institute for Strategic Studies has
lenges,
organised the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. At this intergovernmental
militarisation of the South China Sea.
regional security summit, defence ministers, military chiefs and other lead-
Potential
regional
states – and other countries vitally involved in the region – meet to discuss
points:
the
the crucial regional security matters of the day. The Dialogue has become
Peninsula and Taiwan.
ing members of the national-security establishments of the Asia-Pacific
a fixture in the calendars of key defence decision-makers from the 27 coun-
•
•
Korean
Developments in regional states’ naval and defence-
tries that regularly send delegations.
industrial capabilities.
The Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2016 is the third IISS Strategic Dossier to be published in association with the IISS Shangri-La
flash-
•
Emerging regional security issues in the form of challenges from
Dialogue. It focuses on five centrally important groups of regional
unregulated migration and the Islamic State, and the wider impli-
security concerns relevant to the important discussions that can be
cations of economic-cooperation initiatives.
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2016
IISS Manama Dialogue 2016
The 15th Asia Security Summit, the IISS
The 12th Regional Security Summit, the IISS Manama Dialogue,
Shangri-La Dialogue, will take place on 3–5
will take place on 9–11 December 2016. Further details will be
June 2016. Subjects to be debated include how
available in the build-up to the Dialogue.
to meet Asia’s complex security challenges,
The report of the IISS Manama Dialogue 2015 is available
how to manage military competition in Asia
along with video and transcripts for all Plenary Sessions, the
and how to make defence policy in uncertain
Opening Televised Panel and the Opening Remarks and Keynote
times. Further details and the outline agenda
Address.
are available.
18
|
MAY 2016
IISS NEWS