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October 2014
IISS Global Strategic Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
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IISS Fullerton Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
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IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
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Transnational Threats and Political Risk . . . . . . 17
Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
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The 11th IISS Global Strategic Review
Carl Bildt, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sweden
Bård Glad Pedersen, State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway
The last time the IISS convened in Oslo, 25 years
Sweden, and Bård Glad Pedersen, State Secretary,
must react assertively to Russia’s intervention in its
ago, coincided with the opening of the Hungary–
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway, presented
Western neighbour: Ukraine was not a pawn in a
Austria border to East Germans pushing West
Nordic perspectives on European security.
game of chess but a sovereign nation with the right to determine its own path.
and the breach of the Berlin Wall. A quarter-cen-
Glad Pedersen pointed to rapid change in
tury later, comparable questions concerning an
Europe’s security environment in both its south-
Bildt argued that persistent instability in
upended European if not global order were once
ern and eastern neighbourhoods. At a time when
Europe’s neighbourhood and beyond is reordering
more the subject of discussion at the 11th Global
fundamental elements of Europe’s security order
the strategic priorities for Europe. Governments
Strategic Review (GSR), convened on 19–21
are under threat because of Russia’s actions in
must realise that Russia has become, and will
September 2014 under the rubric ‘Geopolitical
Ukraine, it is up to NATO and EU member states
remain for the time being, a revisionist power. The
Risks and Geo-economic Opportunities’.
to ‘safeguard the basic pillars of the international
implications are not limited to Europe, Bildt said.
security order’, and not to abandon them. A crucial
Rather, the legitimacy of the global security order
Keynote Session on Nordic Perspectives on
pillar is respect for international law, from which
is at stake and the foreign minister believed that
European Security
both small and large states benefit. According
addressing ‘the return of geopolitics’ and avoiding
Both Sweden and Norway are Host Nation
to the state secretary, the High North, an area of
the ‘spread of global disorder’ is destined to be a
Supporters of the GSR, which in 2013 took place in
strategic interest from a Nordic perspective and
long-term task. With regard to the Russia–Ukraine
Stockholm. This year’s opening keynote session was
one that involves Russia, shows that through coop-
crisis, Bildt insisted that sanctions against Russia
held at the imposing Oslo City Hall and chaired by
eration, trade and confidence-building measures,
had to be matched by strong support for Ukraine
Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief
conflict and a ‘race for resources’ can be avoided.
as the country goes about economic and political
Executive. Carl Bildt, Minister for Foreign Affairs of
However, Glad Pedersen stressed that the West
reform and attempts to battle corruption. Bildt
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
POLITICAL RISK/RISK ANALYSIS
UKRAINE
RUSSIA
(l–r) Carl Bildt, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sweden; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Bård Glad Pedersen, State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway
concluded that strategic realities have created
Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for
EU and Ukraine needed to include special pro-
a ‘new sense of exposure and vulnerability’ in
Russia and Eurasia, agreed with Heisbourg on
visions for the exchange of goods, capital and
Europe. On balance, Europe is heading towards
the problematic nature of a sanctions strategy: it
people across the Ukraine–Russia border. More
a more difficult security future.
‘focused largely on punishing Russia rather than
broadly, the West might contain Russian adven-
addressing problems that led to this impasse’.
turism, but it should shed any illusions about
Keynote Session on the International System
There is a need for balance between sanction-
solving Russia’s internal problems.
and the Ukraine Crisis
ing bad behaviour and leaving doors open to
The Ukraine keynote session was chaired by
a solution. IISS Council Member Igor Yurgens,
First Plenary – The Transformation of the
Adam Ward, Director of Studies of the IISS.
who is Chairman of the Moscow-based Institute
Geopolitical and Geo-economic Order in the
Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of
for Contemporary Development, assessed the
Middle East
the IISS Council, argued in his address that the
pluses and minuses of the crisis from Moscow’s
The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham
Ukraine crisis is fundamentally different from
perspective. On the positive side, the possibility
(ISIS) has both exposed and exacerbated the
other post-Cold War crises because the formal
of ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine
grave structural weaknesses and political con-
incorporation of territory by a predator state
might be on the table, and Putin has boosted
tradictions of Middle Eastern states. The crisis
was an ‘exceedingly rare act’, signalling that
his popularity and consolidated his leadership.
of legitimacy of governing Arab elites and the
Russia is exiting the post-Cold War system. In
On the negative side, this has come at a huge
weakening of states have created vacuums
Heisbourg’s opinion, this emanated from the
economic price – possibly $200 billion in 2014
increasingly filled by extremist, revisionist
widely held view in Moscow of the ‘Versailles-
alone. There will be a creeping renationalisation
actors.
like punishment of Russia’ following the
of oil and gas industries, further damaging the
Former Iraqi deputy prime minister Dr
collapse of the Soviet Union. In Moscow’s act
economy, as a consequence of sanctions. Russia
Barham Salih noted that the challenge to post-
of rebellion against this punishment, the ‘West’s
meanwhile finds itself in a weak overall posi-
First World War borders in the Middle East did
rulebook no longer applies’. The crisis would
tion: it has 200 million people and 2% of global
not come from communities with old grievances
likely last for a long time because, ‘it is not about
GDP, compared to the ‘consolidated West’s’ 1bn
but from a new, extremist Islamist movement,
[Russian President Vladimir] Putin, not even
people and 40% of global GDP.
namely ISIS. Roula Khalaf, Foreign Editor of
about the regime, it is about Russia’. The West’s
Comments from the floor were balanced
the Financial Times, reflected on the dashed
strategy should be to strengthen Ukraine just
between those who doubted that anything like
hopes of the Arab uprisings and referred to the
as Finland and Yugoslavia were supported by
a no-NATO-membership guarantee would
region as a ‘comprehensive mess’. Failing states
the West in the Cold War. The analogy also sug-
stop Russia’s depredations, and those who
such as Syria and Iraq are cohabiting with the
gests one important concession: the ‘goal should
wondered if such a concession offered much
increasingly autocratic Gulf states and regional
be a strong neutral Ukraine’. Ruling out NATO
earlier could have headed off the conflict. There
dynamics, she explained, and are shaped by
membership just might be part of a solution that
was also a question of whether the eastward
an Iranian–Saudi cold war. This is taking dan-
Moscow could accept. Heisbourg added that
expansion of EU influence is considered, by
gerous and enduring sectarian forms and is
leaving the NATO question ‘in abeyance … can
Russia, to be as threatening as NATO expan-
exacerbated by the nuclear talks. The struggle
only worry the Russians without reassuring the
sion. In response, Yurgens reiterated that any
over the future of political Islam – with Saudi
Ukrainians’.
revived Association Agreement between the
Arabia, the UAE and Egypt vying against the
2
|
OCTOBER 2014
IISS NEWS
IRAN
SYRIA
IRAQ
MIDDLE EAST
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
(l–r) Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS; Dr Igor Yurgens, Chairman, Institute of Contemporary Development; Member of the Council, IISS; Dr Samuel Charap, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, IISS–US; and Adam Ward, Director of Studies, IISS
Qatar- and Turkey-backed Muslim Brotherhood
Second Plenary – Iran: Towards an Endgame?
decision to isolate nuclear talks from other
– is also a key factor. Such fault lines complicate
The Second Plenary Session assessed the pros-
geopolitical concerns. Any linkage would be
any sustainable response to ISIS.
pects of converting the interim nuclear deal
anathema to the way in which the nuclear talks
Toby Dodge, Senior IISS Consulting Fellow
between Tehran and the P5+1 powers – com-
have been conducted so far and largely super-
for the Middle East, insisted that the combina-
posed of China, France, Germany, Russia, the
ficial. More fundamentally, competing interests
tion of weak, failing and failed states was the
United Kingdom and the United States – into a
and visions over developments in Syria, Gaza
defining strategic issue in the Middle East. As
final one. The speakers held contrasting views
and Yemen are not favourable to a broader
a case in point, he detailed the failings of the
on how achievable a goal this is. However,
US–Iran strategic reconciliation in the region.
Iraqi state since the US invasion of 2003 and
all agreed that the complexity of events in the
Salamé concluded that a deal was still possible
explained how key Sunni communities, having
region is such that war against Iran over its
but the more likely alternative would be a deci-
lost trust in the central government, turned to
nuclear capacity and ambitions is now less
sion to roll over negotiations or, short of this, a
sectarian and communal players for protection,
likely. For now, no major player, including
return to sanctions policy.
order and services. Rather than hard partition
Israel, has a clear interest in initiating a major
Dr Gary Samore – Former White House
into homogenous states, he predicted that no
state-to-state armed confrontation in the region.
Coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons of
new, homogenous state would emerge from the
Seyed Hossein Mousavian, the former Head
Mass Destruction – lauded the ‘sensible ways’
of Iran’s Foreign Relations Committee, stated
in which negotiators have learned to engage
Salih, Khalaf and Dodge agreed that ISIS
that a return to sanctions policy would result in
with each other over the course of the negotia-
was a symptom of the failure of state-building,
failure. By contrast, the interim deal has deliv-
tions. This includes a shift towards US–Iranian
ailing societies and Western policies in the Arab
ered remarkably positive results which must be
bilateral meetings because the P5+1 format was
world. Corruption, crises of institutions and
safeguarded, including Iran’s moves to convert
too cumbersome. Any deal would therefore
lack of services have shaken the trust of citizens
enriched uranium to oxide fuel, halt the instal-
have to be between Washington and Tehran
in their states and benefitted extremist players.
lation of centrifuges, and commit to no further
and subsequently ratified by the broader P5+1
ISIS’s rise was no surprise.
reprocessing of nuclear fuel rods. Mousavian
grouping. However, the two countries are still
The response to ISIS will be challenging:
went on to explain that a broader dialogue, on
very far apart on agreeing Iran’s status as a
Salih described the coalition against ISIS as
the basis of a common agenda with the West
‘threshold state’ in the non-proliferation regime.
‘the alliance of the unwilling and the hesitant’.
over the security deterioration in Iraq as well
Washington has demanded Iran reduce its exist-
Khalaf described ISIS as a virus and Syria as
as Afghanistan, might help bridge deep-rooted
ing enrichment capacity and cap it for 20 years.
its biggest victim but recognised the complex-
mistrust between the parties. He stressed the
Iran continues to insist on building its civilian
ity of fighting ISIS in Syria. Intervention in Iraq
political nature of the impasse with regard to
nuclear capacity through a much larger indus-
was relatively easy given the request of the
the nuclear negotiations.
trial-scale programme. A compromise is still
current turmoil.
government and the presence of local partners,
Professor Ghassan Salamé, Dean of the Paris
possible, but in Samore’s view neither side is in
two ingredients sorely missing in Syria. Dodge
School of International Affairs at Sciences Po
a position to make fundamental concessions in
advised that the solution in Iraq requires inclu-
and Member of the IISS Council, reminded del-
order to achieve a final deal. The status quo is
sive governance and the decentralisation of
egates that one of the key tenets that had helped
not perfect, but remains tolerable for all sides.
power, not just resorting to force.
negotiators reach an interim agreement was the
We may therefore expect to see a renewal of an
IISS NEWS
OCTOBER 2014 | 3
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
UKRAINE
RUSSIA
ENERGY SECURITY
(l–r) Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial; Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, IISS; Dr Barham Salih, Former Prime Minister, Kurdistan Regional Government, Iraq; Roula Khalaf, Foreign Editor, Financial Times; and Professor Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS
interim agreement involving additional actions
theme was the need for fundamental political
Trade Agreement (DCFTA) commit Ukraine to
for Tehran in return for further sanctions relief.
and economic reform. Arguably, the authori-
legally binding change, because they recognised
ties have a unique chance because the Maidan
that external pressure was needed to overcome
Special Session One – The Political, Economic
protests were mainly against the corrupt politi-
resistance to reform. Implementation of the
and Strategic Future of Ukraine
cal model; society has thus far shown tolerance
agreements, which will be delayed and may
Four themes dominated the discussion of
or even appetite for change. However, Ukraine
never be completed, would bring Ukraine into
Ukraine’s strategic future. Firstly, it was argued
seems to lack the capacity and strategy to
line with up to 90% of the single market’s rules.
that reconciliation between the east and west
effect a fundamental overhaul of the oligar-
However, there is concern that the EU is not
of the country is imperative to overcome long-
chic and political model. The best prospect
ready to extend the assistance that Ukraine will
standing divisions in society and to transfer
seems to rest with the EU: Ukrainian negotia-
need to implement the AA in crisis conditions.
the conflict we have witnessed in 2014 from
tors requested that the Association Agreement
The third theme was urgent challenges.
the military to the political realm. The second
(AA) and the Deep and Comprehensive Free-
Ukraine is unprepared for winter. It has stopped
(l–r) Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Former Head, Foreign Relations Committee, Supreme National Security Council, Iran; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Professor Ghassan Salamé, Dean, Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po; and Dr Gary Samore, Former White House Coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons of Mass Destruction
4
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OCTOBER 2014
IISS NEWS
CYBER SECURITY
EGYPT
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
tax on high earners, are significant and reflect the regime’s commitment to a new paradigm: enshrining social justice in economic development. In the long term, Egypt’s two main challenges consist of tackling its high levels of poverty and food insecurity. Special Session Three – International Efforts to Secure the Cyber Domain The cyber domain now stands at a critical juncture in terms of technology and policy, with technological developments outpacing policy. Speakers agreed that decisions taken now in both arenas and in the intersection between them would have an impact for decades to come. There have never been a greater number of damaging cyber incidents, with more actors Mass protests in Kiev, February 2014 (Palinchak/Dreamstime.com)
and more targets demonstrating sophisticated attack tools and vectors. The cyber domain is becoming militarised with a trend towards
importing gas from Russia and has barely
their total eradication and another demanding
more strategic use of military cyber tools amid
enough in storage or domestic production to
their gradual political integration. It was noted
a climate of mistrust. The current inability of
meet internal demand. One solution would be
that political repression, which initially tar-
states to determine adequately what military
to burn more coal, but 80% of the country’s coal
geted the ousted President Muhammad Morsi
cyber capabilities other states possess creates
comes from the Donbas. Electricity imports will
and Muslim Brotherhood supporters, is now
conditions for an escalatory spiral with implica-
also be needed but Europe cannot provide them.
expanding to other opposition and civil activ-
tions far beyond the purely military dimension.
Thus there is a pressing need to resolve energy-
ists. The overthrow of old operators has also
On a more positive note, there is now more
trade disputes with Russia. Beyond the winter,
led to a fractured security landscape. In par-
top-level policy understanding of cyber issues,
Ukrainian and EU officials have until the end
ticular, there is growing insecurity along the
which are no longer seen as matters purely for
of 2015 to reach agreement with Russia on how
borders with Sudan, Libya and Gaza because
the technical community, and there has been
Ukrainian–Russian trade will be conducted once
of discontent among border communities: this
progress in international negotiations on cyber
Ukraine opens to EU goods under the DCFTA.
is reflected in increased trafficking of humans,
governance and cyber security. There are still
Without this, many Ukrainian enterprises will
arms and illicit goods.
major differences of approach between the US
be cut off from their traditional market in the
Delegates agreed it is too early to predict
and its allies who argue for the status quo and
east. This relates to the final theme: the need
the success of Egypt’s recent economic reforms.
states such as China and Russia advocating a
for reconciliation between Ukraine and the EU
Gains from the energy subsidy reform could be
top-down governance model focused on infor-
and US on one hand, and Russia on the other.
channelled toward health and education. Other
mation security – i.e. control of online content.
Ukraine cannot be stabilised without a construc-
fiscal reforms, such as imposing the 5% income
Progress had been made at the UN where the
tive contribution from Russia – economically, financially and politically. This in turn seems unlikely without some agreement that would
A demonstration in Tahrir Square, Cairo, February 2011
address Russia’s concerns about the possibility of further NATO enlargement. Special Session Two – Egypt’s Political Trajectory and Economic Prospects: Regional Effects Participants depicted the current political mood in Egypt following the 2011 revolution and subsequent military takeover as one of fatigue and disillusionment with the democratic process. The speakers agreed regime stability is presently considered the most important priority. Although the Sisi regime is still in the process of consolidation, it is not in danger of being overthrown. Power brokers are divided on the future role of Islamist players, with one camp calling for IISS NEWS
OCTOBER 2014 | 5
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
CAMBODIA
MYANMAR
THAILAND
EUROPEAN UNION
NATO
red lines limiting the extent of political participation. Nevertheless, reforms have had a profound impact on the rebalancing of Myanmar’s foreign relations, with Western powers lifting most sanctions. China remains a hugely important neighbour, but both the extent of its influence under military rule and subsequent decline have been overstated. In Cambodia, the 1990s post-conflict democratic transition stalled, enabling a system where the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) integrated itself deeply into the economy and bureaucracy. Despite a controversial 2013 election, Cambodia is currently stable due to a CPP deal with the opposition. The CPP is unlikely to give up power if defeated at the ballot box at the next election in 2018, given the country’s ‘winner takes all’ political culture.
The US 24th Air Force facilities at Port San Antonio (US DoD)
However, the country has a strong interest in a safe investment environment despite potenGovernmental Group of Experts had been able
level, the re-instatement of military rule may
tial political turmoil in 2017–18. Although the
to agree on the applicability of existing interna-
do little to quell the divisions and political mal-
CPP was installed by Vietnam, Phnom Penh has
tional law to the cyber domain. A key concern
aise afflicting the country. While the coup’s full
more recently sided with China against ASEAN
would be to determine what constitutes accept-
impact on relations with external powers is not
over the South China Sea, where Beijing and
able conduct in peacetime and how behaviour
yet clear, it is unlikely that it will lead to a sub-
Hanoi are adversaries.
could be monitored and policed – such as not
stantial deterioration in its relationship with
targeting another state’s critical national infra-
Washington – such as a cancellation of next
Special Session Five – The Consequences of
structure or Computer Emergency Response
year’s joint military Cobra Gold exercise – as this
Crisis: the Eurozone and European Strategy
Teams.
could open the door for China to build a stron-
Participants heard a familiar listing of the
ger relationship with Thailand.
challenges facing Europe, but were also able
International diplomacy still hankers after treaties but a pragmatic approach aimed at
Myanmar’s transition from a military dic-
to identify some positive indicators for the
building consensus on specifics and the volun-
tatorship to a more democratic state has been
future. On the financial front, the Eurozone
tary adoption of emerging best practice seems a
ongoing since 1993, a fact often forgotten when
crisis has left a divisive legacy and substantial
more realistic aspiration. No state can secure the
assessing the reform trajectory of the present
risks remain: debt levels are high and economic
cyber domain on its own and the cyber domain
government. Expectations that a true democ-
growth has been slow with high levels of youth
now affects all aspects of human life.
racy will emerge soon should be tempered by
unemployment. The crisis has both occupied
the existence of fairly intractable constitutional
leaders’ attention and restricted resources. As
Special Session Four – Southeast Asia’s Arc of Political Conflict and Economic Risk The speakers at this session addressed politi-
Soldiers on the streets of Bangkok, Thailand during the May 2014 coup
cal changes in three countries in mainland Southeast Asia: Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand. As well as the nature of the changes – embedded, it was argued, in a regional political paradigm of constrained democracy – the discussion centred on their impact on relations with external powers, and implications for investment risk. Thailand faced its 13th successful coup in May. Local opinions on the coup have not been as condemnatory as in the West: many Thais see the military’s reputation for efficient reform and restoration of order as part-justification for its intervention in public life. However, a second stage of political reform could be at risk if the economy fails to improve next year – economic stimulus is thus likely. On a more fundamental 6
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OCTOBER 2014
IISS NEWS
DEFENCE POLICY
RUSSIA
TERRORISM AND SECURITY
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
tion has also increased the exchange of tactics and funding mechanisms between different Islamist groups. Panellists agreed that hybrid conflict is more likely in countries with weak or divisive economic and state structures, such as Ukraine. It was pointed out that the use of proxy non-state armed groups by state actors is a long-standing issue in international affairs, but one that has acquired new relevance as a form of hybrid warfare that expands options to surprise adversaries and avoid detection. Panellists emphasised development as a necessary condition for defeating hybrid armed groups. It was noted that political reforms, inclusive civilian partnerships and improved infrastructure have been used successfully in Euro symbol outside the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany (Chris Goldberg/Flickr)
some states affected by hybrid conflict. Special Session Seven – Russian Military
a result, the EU was accused in the session of
Special Session Six – Hybrid Conflict, New
Modernisation
turning its so-called ‘comprehensive approach
Insecurities and the Developing World
In the context of concerns over Russia’s military
to crisis management’ into an excuse to give
This session explored the ways in which
actions in Ukraine, this session on Russian mili-
up on a greater strategic vision. In defence and
different types of non-state armed groups
tary modernisation generated a wide-ranging,
foreign policy, Europe has persistently failed to
have interacted and increasingly merged in
detailed and energetic discussion. The current
meet its own targets in terms of defence spend-
Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe.
round of military-reform initiatives began after
ing, capabilities and coordination. A Europe
Globalisation has allowed activities such as
the short 2008 war with Georgia; this exposed
resting on these unsound foundations suddenly
drugs and human trafficking, the spread of mili-
Russia’s forces to combat against troops
had to face the Ukraine crisis and a Russia that
tant radicalisation and cyber crime to take on
equipped with modern equipment and arma-
could no longer be viewed as a strategic partner.
an increasingly transnational dimension which
ments. Improved finances after the mid-2000s
Previously, Europe had proceeded on the basis
threatens regional security and stability.
spurred the current reforms. Russia’s forces
that its neighbours, whether to the east or south,
Islamist groups display increasing hybrid-
are now very dissimilar to those before 2008.
wanted to be ‘like us’. Sanctions on Moscow
ity and have successfully involved a greater
Moving away from ambitions to deploy far out-
have added to Europe’s economic and financial
number of nationalities in their core operations.
of-area, Russia’s armed forces are instead being
woes.
This international dimension has been used to
shaped for regional and local contingencies as
It was felt that NATO’s recent Wales summit
good propaganda effect by groups such as ISIS.
the result of key developments in terms of per-
had made important decisions to improve
The use of the Internet as a means of radicalisa-
sonnel, training and equipment.
military readiness and flexibility, and to bolster both reassurance and deterrence, while
A video grab of ISIS militants in Iraq (Karl-Ludwig Poggemann/Flickr)
also seeking – less convincingly – to reverse the downward trajectory of defence spending. Earlier, the EU’s December 2013 summit had been significant in reasserting a defence focus. In a broader sense, participants were reminded that Europe had pulled together – albeit in crisis mode – to save the euro. Moreover, a new team of top officials in Brussels had begun a ‘reboot’ of EU foreign policy. However, the sense of the session was that much more action is needed to improve European cooperation in all areas of policy. There remains a contradiction between the combined clout that could be gained from strengthening Europe-wide institutions and the tendency of governments to cling on to what one participant called ‘the illusion of sovereignty’ – an arresting phrase guaranteed to provoke euro-sceptics across the continent. IISS NEWS
OCTOBER 2014 | 7
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT
CHINA
WEST AFRICA
Special Session Eight – Nuclear Postures in the Asia–Pacific This session addressed the principle nuclearproliferation challenges in Asia. In particular, it examined China’s technological advance and doctrinal inflections; Pakistan’s nuclear programme, which is the fastest growing in the world; and ongoing concerns regarding North Korea’s nuclear trajectory. It was suggested that, paradoxically, US President Barack Obama’s promulgation of a world without nuclear weapons has been met with increased nuclear developments in Asia. The expansion and modernisation of nuclear-weapons programmes is occurring against a backdrop of rising regional tensions, doctrinal dissonance, weak command and control systems and a worrying absence of crisis-stability mechanisms. The speakers high-
President Putin visits anti-submarine ship Vice Admiral Kulakov
lighted several situations in which strategic miscalculation could lead to a troubling escalation.
between
Russia’s strategic rocket forces. With personnel
800,000–850,000 personnel in its armed forces,
being a key objective of the reform process, per-
The first of these potential flashpoints to be
comprising a mixture of conscripts and con-
sonal military equipment has seen substantial
explored was the relationship between China
tract personnel. However, the country is still
change, and there have been notable develop-
and the US. China is undertaking to modernise
grappling with the effects of the demographic
ments in personal load-carrying equipment,
its nuclear arsenal, seeking to develop a lean
slump of the 1990s; this reduced the avail-
body armour, and personal communications,
and effective deterrent force. However, there is
able pool of manpower. The aspiration is to
among others. However, the benefits of these
a lack of communication between the US and
recruit more contract-service personnel, though
reforms for the broader armed forces are not as
China on doctrinal issues. The US discredits
recruitment targets have so far remained simply
readily apparent as they are for Russia’s rapid-
China’s no-first-use policy and criticises what
that. Personnel are now better paid and there is
reaction forces.
it perceives to be excessive secrecy. Questions
Russia
is
thought
to
have
renewed pride in military service; however, the
With rising wages, young people are being
were also asked of US commitment to its secu-
management of conscript personnel remains an
attracted to the defence-industry sector; the gap
rity guarantees in the region. China’s growing
issue.
is in the middle, reflective of problems inherited
conventional assertiveness is combined with a
The armed forces are receiving more capable
from the 1990s. The focus is on increasing the
bellicose North Korea, where capabilities are
and modern equipment, but problems remain
ability to serially produce advanced equipment
also difficult to assess. Since its third nuclear
in the defence industry’s capacity to deliver
and also introduce modern processes, such as
test in 2013, North Korea has been presumed
the numbers planned. Air and naval forces
modular construction in shipbuilding, to better
capable of weaponising its stockpile of nuclear
have seen new capabilities introduced, as have
match building techniques common elsewhere.
material, although any device may have low reliability. Capabilities in India and Pakistan are
Anti-nuclear-power protests in Kouenji, Japan (Matthias Lambrecht/Flickr)
more transparent, but there is an urgent need for risk reduction: nuclear rivalry is driven by declaratory policies and neither side has the other’s measure. A key theme throughout the session was the clear gaps in bilateral and multilateral dialogues on these issues. Habits of communication and interchange need to be enhanced in Asia, possibly in the form of an Asian nuclear dialogue. Definitions of deterrence and how the concept is perceived by different parties in the region also need to be addressed. Special Session Nine – Complex Instability in the Broader Sahel: Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Implications Although Mali returned to civilian rule following the coup in 2012 and a civil war in the north,
8
|
OCTOBER 2014
IISS NEWS
SYRIA
PACIFIC ALLIANCE
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
globalisation and are among the most open and fastest-growing economies in the region. It was pointed out that the integration being pursued by the Pacific Alliance is broader than just trade, also encompassing people, services and the increasing competitiveness of the bloc’s small and medium companies – for example through visa wavering and integration into global value chains. To develop competitiveness, the countries of the bloc are also investing in infrastructure projects such as ports, airports and railways. The participants agreed that the Pacific Alliance is working towards becoming a hub of interaction between Latin America and Asia. This is attracting growing interest from neighFamilies on the border region between Mauritania and Senegal can face severe food insecurity (EC/ECHO/Anouk Delafortrie)
bours – not only Costa Rica and Panama, who are on their way to becoming members of the new bloc, but also among private-sector com-
the country has yet to see stability. The conflict
expansion of Boko Haram, instability in Libya,
panies in Brazil. The largest economy in the
there has required a regional and international
elections in Burkina Faso and Niger, and the
Asia–Pacific, China, sees the Pacific Alliance
response which, albeit partly successful, has
risk of Ebola spreading northward.
as a business opportunity. Latin America as a whole has already seen substantial Chinese
revealed a number of shortcomings, not least the dichotomy between rhetoric and practice,
Special Session Ten – Inter-Regional Geo-
investments in the agriculture and infrastruc-
the political limitations of cross-departmental
Economics: The Pacific Alliance and the
ture sectors. Chinese firms have committed to
AU–ECOWAS cooperation, and the need for a
Asia–Pacific
investing in transportation infrastructure in a
much-awaited African rapid-response force.
This session analysed the growing links between
bid to reduce shipping costs and diversify trade with the regional bloc.
It was made clear in the session that,
the four countries of the Pacific Alliance trade
although Mali is the epicentre of instability,
bloc – Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico – and
the Sahel faces a growing, region-wide prob-
the Asia–Pacific. It was argued that previous
Special Session Eleven – Syria: Conflict and
lem linked to the failure of public institutions,
integration projects in Latin America have failed
Spill-Over
underdevelopment, unresolved ethnic-minority
because of a prioritisation of proximity over
The rise of ISIS is a symptom of a multi-front
grievances, and the cultural and social divides
affinity of political and economic strategies.
war in Syria and a polarised regional landscape.
relating to North and sub-Saharan Africa. The
Crises in the vicinity of the Andean countries
The brutality of the Assad regime, the failure
Sahel is not insulated from events unfolding
were cited as examples of why the principle of
of the mainstream Syrian opposition and the
further afield, such as in Somalia, Egypt and
proximity is not enough to form strong inte-
rapidly shrinking space for grassroots activ-
even Syria. In particular, the crisis in Libya has
gration movements. Pacific Alliance countries,
ism have created a power vacuum increasingly
acted as an accelerant of insecurity across the
on the other hand, have common ideas about
filled by radical forces. Where support for the
broader region – not least because many militants have relocated to its southern region. This trend reflects the broadening of the jihadi threat,
Container port, Hong Kong (LeeYiuTung/iStock)
a concern that is increasingly widespread across North and West African countries. Pre-existing tensions among key regional players, such as between Morocco and Algeria, are undermining prospects for stabilisation. The EU – the region’s largest donor – faces the challenge of coordinating its own Sahel strategy at a time when insecurity in Ukraine, Iraq and Syria has overshadowed the Sahel crisis. There is a risk that regional leaders will not implement promised reforms in the face of diminishing Western interest. Going forward, the following were deemed to be key factors in determining the stability of the region: the on-going talks in Algeria, continuing attacks against peacekeepers, the IISS NEWS
OCTOBER 2014 | 9
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
INDIA
GEOPOLITICS
and travelled to Washington at the end of September. This ‘foreign-policy blitz’ signals Modi’s efforts to portray India as open for business, especially since trade now accounts for half of its GDP. India will continue to assert its strategic autonomy by leveraging its position in the Indo–Pacific, particularly in the context of renewed Western focus on Asia. The US has lowered its short-term expectations and now looks for convergence rather than a meeting of minds on regional strategy. Conversely, Western diplomats can only support – not promise – the inward investment Modi seeks for India. Keynote Session on Strategic Risk: The Perspective from Business The Saturday-evening keynote featured three
A Free Syrian flag at a refugee camp in Syria
global
business
leaders:
Marilyn
Hirsch,
Global Head of Strategic Planning at AIG; John Assad regime remains, it is largely attributed
rising middle class. However, it remains to be
Knight, Statoil Executive Vice President for
to the lack of viable alternatives. Similarly,
seen whether bureaucracies and union states
Global Strategy and Business Development;
increased support for the Jabat al-Nusra, ISIS
can work alongside, and not against, the admin-
and Andrés Rozental, Founding President of
and others is largely a result of their superior
istration to bring about this change.
the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations.
Tactical, rather than strategic, shifts will
Each shared his or her perspective on crafting
likely characterise the Modi government’s out-
a robust corporate foreign policy to deal with
The role played by Iran and the Gulf states
reach to South Asian neighbours. India remains
the exigencies and demands posed by changing
in supporting their respective local part-
committed to normalising ties with Pakistan.
patterns in international relations.
ners leaves little prospect for a clean victory.
However, the government has signalled that it
Marilyn Hirsch emphasised AIG’s need for
Nonetheless, panellists agreed that the pri-
will only revive a dormant dialogue on its own
real-time and forward-looking evaluation of
mary drivers of the conflict remain local. For
terms, and at a time and pace of its own choos-
political and economic risk, a lesson underlined
now, ISIS is primarily concerned with local
ing. In practice, Pakistan’s internal turmoil and
during the 2008 global financial crisis, which
consolidation rather than attacks against the
rising ceasefire violations in Kashmir, coupled
necessitated a multi-billion-dollar US govern-
far enemy, but Western strikes may compel
with security uncertainties in Afghanistan, will
ment takeover of the company. Since then, the
the group to refocus. Western involvement
continue to shape India’s most important bilat-
global insurer has returned to profitability but
has often validated the jihadi narrative and
eral relationship.
remains, according to Hirsch, a complex inter-
funding and organisation, rather than ideological commitment.
motivated new recruits to join the fight. Policy options, including containment in Syria and
Further afield, Modi has travelled to Japan and
Australia,
hosted
China’s
president,
national business exposed to both country-level and transnational risks through its operations
creating an off-ramp for the end of a mission in Iraq, were deliberated. Narendra Modi
Special Session Twelve – Narendra Modi’s India This session took stock of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first 100 days in power and assessed prospects for change and continuity to 2019. For the first time in three decades, India is ruled by a single, absolute-majority government, under the right-of-centre Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While the full scope of Modi’s reforms will only take shape in 2015, his first step has been to deflate unreasonable expectations. He has staked his success on incremental results, rather than untenable promises and quick fixes. The government’s liberalisation programme aims to restore annual GDP growth to over 7% by promoting investment and manufacturing, as well as consumption and the welfare of the 10
|
OCTOBER 2014
IISS NEWS
ENERGY SECURITY
GEO-ECONOMICS
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
(l–r) Marilyn Hirsch, Global Head of Strategic Planning, AIG; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Andrés Rozental, Founding President, Mexican Council on Foreign Relations; and John Knight, Executive Vice President, Global Strategy and Business Development, Statoil
in over 90 countries. The company has had to
Andrés Rozental spoke of the top-ten risks of
tions. The first of these was the limited pipeline
develop a corporate strategy for crises and
conducting business globally, and approached
network between Russia and Northeast Asia:
political transitions as varied and geographi-
these thematically. At the global level these
currently, bilateral pipelines only exist between
cally dispersed as those taking place in Egypt,
included, in his view, an emerging power
Russia and China, with territorial disputes and
Thailand, Russia and Ukraine, to name a few.
vacuum marked by the increasing absence of an
the instability of North Korea impeding pipe-
Enhanced due diligence, if managed correctly,
efficient ‘global crisis manager’ in the shape of
line construction with Japan and South Korea,
can also serve to identify geopolitical oppor-
the United States and set in parallel with the rise
respectively. The second was Russia’s limited
tunity. In this regard, Hirsch reflected on the
of China as a great power. At the local level, sub-
domestic technical and production capacity
potential opportunity to insure an aspiring,
stantial risks emanate from the rising number of
in ramping up supply – production levels are
well-educated and growing market of potential
young people in the world. This demographic
declining in Russia, and questions have been
customers in Iran, should the country continue
trend presents both a market opportunity and a
raised over Gazprom’s ability to build process-
to normalise its relations with Western powers
potential source of further global political vola-
ing plants and construct pipelines in a timely
and re-engage with international markets.
tility. Social unrest in authoritarian countries,
manner. Finally, as a late entrant to the Asian
John Knight acknowledged a growing con-
problems related to cyber attacks and espionage,
energy market, Russia has to compete with alter-
sensus among Statoil executives that heightened
religious extremism and the consequences of a
native energy sources in the region, among them
geopolitical and investment risk, volatile energy
slowdown in growth in key emerging markets
the oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia and
costs and prices, and the emergence of new global
could all exacerbate these overarching trends.
Myanmar, cheap and abundant domestic coal in China, and rising liquefied natural gas (LNG)
players with ever-larger energy and geopolitical footprints are profoundly reshaping the indus-
Third Plenary – Global Energy: A Strategic
supplies from the Middle East, Australia and, in
try. The rise of unconventional hydrocarbons
Assessment
future, the United States and Canada.
and the uncertainty generated by the prospect
The panellists explored opportunities and hur-
Tadashi Maeda pointed out that, although
of US energy self-dependence have furthered
dles faced by the two emerging strategic energy
the United States could probably commence
that belief. Statoil has set about restructuring
relationships facing Northeast Asia: that with
unconventional hydrocarbon exports to Japan
its strategy department with an emphasis on
Russia and that with North America. Dr Xavier
around the same time as the new Russo-Chinese
optionality and resilience to better cope with the
Chen analysed the potential role of Russian
pipeline is completed (around 2018), an out-
‘age of the unthinkable’. The energy major now
energy in the region, focusing on the ques-
dated 1938 legal framework for US gas exports,
has teams in place to assess threats to its business
tion of why the energy trading links between
along with the additional costs of delivering
operations and market capitalisation in terms of
Russia and Northeast Asia have traditionally
shale gas using the US’s existing pipeline distri-
country and transnational risk, and deploys a
been weak, despite geographic proximity and
bution network – which would force exports via
third unit to develop a geopolitical strategy tai-
demand–supply complementarity between the
the Gulf of Mexico and the Panama Canal rather
lored to these assessments. Significantly, Statoil
two regions. This complementarity has recently
than via newly constructed pipelines to the West
has also undertaken to externalise its risk anal-
taken on greater significance for Russia, which
Coast – could pose regulatory and cost hurdles.
ysis to challenge and cross-check its views of
faces the prospect of economic sanctions over its
Potential LNG exports from Canada were being
strategic change in the world. This priority was
actions in Ukraine.
hindered by First Nations and tax issues, while
reflected in Statoil’s decision to become a corporate member of the IISS. IISS NEWS
Dr Chen suggested three factors limiting the
Alaskan LNG supply to Asia was unlikely
rapid acceleration in intra-regional energy rela-
to come on-stream before 2023. Nonetheless, OCTOBER 2014 | 11
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
POLITICAL RISK/RISK ANALYSIS
CHINA
JAPAN
(l–r) Tadashi Maeda, Senior Managing Director, Japan Bank for International Cooperation; Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security, IISS–Asia; Xavier Chen, President, Beijing Energy Club; and Dr William Pizer, Professor of Public Policy, Duke University
Maeda noted that the gradual restarting of
proposed three ‘Yamamoto principles’ for the
trust. In such a fluid environment, observers of
Japan’s nuclear power plants following the
fostering of regional collaboration: emphasis-
Asia–Pacific security cannot rely on the axiom
Fukushima nuclear accident would act against
ing the rule of law, the promotion of bilateral
that complex economic interdependence pre-
Russian supply prospects, as would the
relationships with Japan’s neighbours and the
cludes conflict. History has proven that the
Japanese domestic energy-distribution monop-
strengthening of the regional community.
obverse is possible.
oly, which has impeded pipeline construction
Li stressed that the post-Cold War global
in the past. Dr William Pizer added that renew-
architecture was under pressure, given the
Fifth Plenary – The Purposes and Extent of
able energy was set to play an increasing role
decline of the United States and the ‘rise of
Western Strategic and Military Capacity
in the region, with half the capacity additions in
the rest’. But a new Cold War is not emerging,
The concluding plenary of the GSR brought
China over the past year coming from non-fossil
he said. China is engaged on all fronts with
together Ine Eriksen Søreide, Norwegian
sources, along with the potential imposition of
its neighbours, even Japan – a country with
Minister for Defence; Michael Rich, President
a cap on energy production using coal in 2015.
which it has had difficult relations. China, Li
and Chief Executive Officer of RAND; and
said, wants to be a pre-eminent power in Asia,
Professor Sir Hew Strachan, Chichele Professor
Fourth Plenary – A New Cold War in Asia?
a goal which would at times raise tensions in
of the History of War at the University of Oxford.
The question posed in the fourth plenary threw
the region. While Western entreaties that China
Søreide set out the consequences for NATO
up several imponderables in Asia–Pacific secu-
become a ‘responsible stakeholder’ are ‘correct
of the changing European security environ-
rity: the conundrum posed by China’s rise, the
in principle’, China is being asked to participate
ment. The relative predictability of the threat
sustainability of the US rebalance to the region,
in the building of a regional order that does
of high-intensity conflict was contrasted with
and Asian countries’ ability to adjust to major
not take Beijing’s interests into account. In the
a more diverse range of contemporary threats,
shifts in the regional security environment. The
end, the most important bilateral relationship is
including cyber attacks and long-range preci-
three panellists – Eric Li, Chairman of Chengwei
the one between China and the US; both great
sion firepower. Meanwhile, the confluence of
Capital and Member of the Council; Sarah
powers are involved in a ‘long and complex
falling defence budgets and rising costs, she pre-
Raine, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Geo-
negotiation’ in the search for a new power con-
dicted, will push more Western states towards
Economics and Security; and Ichita Yamamoto,
figuration.
multinational cooperation to fulfil defence capa-
former Japanese minister in charge of Ocean
Raine’s take on the situation was less san-
bilities. She noted that, while NATO has once
Policy and Territorial Issues – were generally
guine. She observed that China’s strategy is
again begun to focus on territorial defence, it is
agreed that a contemporary parallel in Asia
effectively to seek a de facto hegemony in the
unclear whether societies in member states have
to Cold War-era bipolar competition does not
region – a process that is contested and might
fully grasped the significance of this.
exist. Nonetheless, each warned of systemic
result in the establishment of deterrence poli-
Rich, in turn, focused on identifying what
shifts that might raise tensions and even spark
cies. Chinese attempts at changing facts on the
he believed were the highest-priority areas
outright conflict.
ground in its maritime disputes with various
of interest of American foreign and security
According to Yamamoto, Asia stands at a
Asian countries could have serious escalatory
policy. Chief among these were the preservation
‘fork in the road’: the region must choose either
ramifications. To provide the stability needed
of a liberal international order, the develop-
to cooperate to build a new regional order or to
for a regional order, Japan needs to deal with
ment of a constructive relationship with China
allow some states to undermine that order. He
the country’s historical issues to build strategic
and the containment and eradication of the
12
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OCTOBER 2014
IISS NEWS
DEFENCE POLICY
UNITED STATES
EUROPE
NATO
GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
(l–r) Ichita Yamamoto, former Minister in charge of Ocean Policy and Territorial Issues, Japan; Sarah Raine, Consulting Senior Fellow for Geo-Economics and Security, IISS; Eric Li, Chairman, Chengwei Capital; Member of the Council, IISS; and Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS–Asia
most violent anti-Western extremists in the
ment: that economic interdependence does
military advisers and proxy local forces are
Middle East. Secondary goals fit within these
not guarantee peace; that local conflicts can
not distinct from ‘boots on the ground’, nor a
broader themes, such as tackling the root
aggregate into larger ones; and that rhetoric
reliable policy instrument; and to stop substi-
causes of sectarian disputes in the Middle East,
can often get in the way of crisis manage-
tuting labels for proper analysis.
supporting the liberal-democratic orientation
ment. With these in mind, he suggested that
The IISS is grateful to the Ministries of
of former Soviet states in Eastern Europe, pre-
the West needs to build a vocabulary for war
Foreign Affairs of Sweden and Norway for
venting the spread of nuclear weapons into
that contains, rather than magnifies, conflict.
their generous support of the GSR, Statoil for
unstable regions, and the development and
He also identified particular areas in need
support of the Opening Dinner, and the follow-
adoption of clean energy.
of improvement: urging decision-makers to
ing Corporate Patrons: Statoil, BAE Systems,
Professor Strachan began by articulat-
see strategy as more than simply reacting
Lockheed
ing a number of lessons of the First World
to threats; to avoid undermining deterrence
Orascom Construction Industries and Reliance
War that are relevant to the current environ-
through over-promising; to recognise that
Industries Limited.
Martin,
Northrop
Grumman,
(l–r) Ine Eriksen Søreide, Minister of Defence, Norway; Michael Rich, President and Chief Executive Officer, RAND; Member of the Council, IISS; Professor Sir Hew Strachan, Chichele Professor of the History of War, All Souls College, University of Oxford; Member of the Council, IISS; and Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS
IISS NEWS
OCTOBER 2014 | 13
IISS–ASIA
FULLERTON LECTURES
CANADA
AUSTRALIA
A Pacific Bridge: Next Steps for Canada and Asia
A Conversation with Julia Gillard
Julia Gillard, former Prime Minister of Australia
The 22 August IISS Fullerton Lecture by Julia Gillard, former prime minister of Australia from 2010 to 2013, took the form of a conversation with Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia, in the ballroom of John Baird, Canada’s Foreign Minister
Singapore’s Fullerton Hotel in front of 200 invited guests, followed by a question-and-answer session with the audience. The discussion focused
In his IISS Fullerton Lecture in Singapore on 4 August, Canada’s Foreign
particularly on Australia’s relations with Asia, including the significance
Minister, John Baird, who was in the midst of a major tour of the region,
of the ‘Australia in the Asian Century’ White Paper, which Gillard’s gov-
spoke about his country’s foreign policy in a global environment that he
ernment issued in late 2012. Gillard highlighted Australia’s success in
described as ‘systematically unstable’, and its increasing emphasis on
developing close political and economic relations with China, while simul-
developing relations with Asia. In his address, Baird emphasised Canada’s
taneously maintaining an important security connection with the United
important ‘Asian demographics’ (five million Canadian citizens having
States. The former prime minister argued that while a major security crisis
Asian origins) and the country’s important economic stake in Asia. The
in East Asia that might undermine Australian efforts to balance relations
minister highlighted three ‘strategic areas’ of Canada–Asia relations: gov-
with China and the United States remained unlikely, it was nevertheless
ernance and democratic development; energy security (reflecting Canada’s
important to find ways to manage regional strategic tensions in, for exam-
status as an ‘energy superpower’ with the third-largest proven oil reserves
ple, the South China Sea. In response to a question about the challenges of
in the world); and security cooperation. He also spoke of Canada’s impor-
being Australia’s first female prime minister, Gillard pointed to the unrea-
tant bilateral relationship with Singapore, which he described as a ‘key
sonable media comments routinely directed at women in public life. Other
ally on regional security’. Baird’s lecture, and his subsequent answers to
questions from the audience focused on the rationale for the deployment
questions from the audience in the ballroom of the Fullerton Hotel, placed
of US Marines to Darwin, Australia’s relations with India, and immigration
great emphasis on the importance of values as well as interests in Canada’s
policy. Concluding the Fullerton Lecture, Dr Huxley asked Gillard about
foreign policy, and specifically the relationship between democratic devel-
her activities since leaving politics: in reply she emphasised her leading
opment and enhanced security and stability. Read the transcript and watch
role in the Global Partnership for Education, and her forthcoming book on
a video of the event.
her time as prime minister, My Story. Watch a video of the event.
PUBLICATIONS
Survival: Global Politics and Strategy In the October–November 2014 issue of Survival, Toby Dodge discusses the origins and consequences of state weakness in Iraq; Christopher J. Fettweis looks at the shortfalls in US strategy that have persisted since the Cold War; and Samuel Charap analyses the Ukraine crisis in light of deadlocked diplomacy between Russia and the West. Also in the issue: Shiloh Fetzek and Jeffrey Mazo on climate change, resources and conflict; Jonathan Holslag on the security implications of China’s growing ambitions; and Mark Gilbert on corruption and reform in Italy.
14
|
OCTOBER 2014
Palliser Essay Prize 2014 For details of the 2014 prize, consisting of £2,500 and publication of the winning essay in Survival, see the Survival website for further details.
IISS NEWS
RUSSIA
ASIA-PACIFIC
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
EUROPE
EVENTS
Strategic Survey 2014: The Annual Review of World Affairs The press launch of Strategic Survey 2014: The Annual Review of World Affairs took place on 18 September at Arundel House. The book covers a year that saw revolution in Ukraine, Russia’s
annexation
of
Crimea,
deepening turmoil in Syria and its neighbourhood, and rising tensions over sovereignty disputes in the Asia–
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is greeted by Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive
Pacific region. The return of big power geopolitics was identified as a strong theme of the year’s events. Dr
John
Chipman,
Director-
General and Chief Executive, said
IISS experts talk to the press after the launch at Arundel House
in his press statement that Strategic Survey was aimed just as much at the international business community as
As well as the usual sections on each region and the opening
at the Institute’s traditional audience among officials and analysts. In keep-
‘Perspectives’ and closing ‘Prospectives’ chapters, the book includes essays
ing with this, the latest book is more explicit about the strategic risks that
on privacy in the post-Snowden cyber domain and on hybrid forms of inse-
result from the year’s developments. For the first time, each regional chap-
curity in the developing world. The ‘Strategic Geography’ section includes
ter includes a graphic that lists ‘drivers of strategic change’ that have been
maps of the world’s liquefied natural gas network and of the undersea
identified from analysis of recent events. An essay in the book explains this
cables that enable Internet communications. There is also a chronology of
approach.
the year’s key events.
Chipman said: ‘We believe that Strategic Survey helps to define the intel-
Journalists’ questions were answered by a panel made up of Alex
lectual framework for what might be styled geopolitical due diligence: the
Nicoll, Editor of Strategic Survey, Nigel Inkster, Tim Huxley, Ben Barry,
effort to understand and prepare for how political change in any given
Virginia Comolli, Emile Hokayem, Dana Allin, Sam Charap and Toby
country or region affects stability and the prospects for successful interna-
Dodge.
tional engagement either by governments or the private sector.’
Watch a video of the press launch and read the press statement.
The Khodorkovsky Saga, Power Politics and Legal Reform in Russia Jeffrey Kahn, professor of law at Southern Methodist University, discussed the ‘Khodorkovsky saga’ at Arundel House on 3 September. Professor Kahn was one of nine experts invited by the Kremlin Human Rights Council to review the second criminal case against Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former owner and CEO of Yukos oil, for fraud and tax evasion. The review encouraged some hope that Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency would result in justice becoming less politicised. Kahn outlined his findings, which were highly critical of the prosecution and supported the council’s recommendation that the verdict should be annulled. He also described the reprisals against his fellow experts once Vladimir Putin had returned to the presidency. Kahn argued that the saga illuminates the state of Russia’s legal
Moscow City Court (Paha_l/Dreamstime.com)
system after 20 years of only partial reform. While the courts often work well enough, there is a tension between the authorities’ desire
Kremlin sometimes finds value in acting and being seen to act in viola-
for courts that are both effective and easy to control. In cases such as
tion of its own laws. The discussion was chaired by Director of Editorial
Khodorkovsky’s, the authorities violate fundamental legal principles
Nicholas Redman. Listen to the full presentation on the IISS website
but afford themselves a veneer of legality. Kahn concluded that the
here.
IISS NEWS
OCTOBER 2014 | 15
NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT
IRAN
CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
EXPERTS
EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference The
IISS
organised
the
third
EU
Non-Proliferation
and
Disarmament Conference, which took place in Brussels on 4–5 September 2014. The conference, held in association with the EU Non-Proliferation Consortium, demonstrated to a global audience the strong role that the EU plays within the whole spectrum of issues on the non-proliferation agenda, including conventional arms, export controls, chemical and biological weapons, cyber security and nuclear issues in a range of regions and contexts. The opening keynote address was delivered by Director-General of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Ahmet Üzümcü and a dinner presentation and lively discussion were provided by UN High Representative for Disarmament Angela Kane and former BBC World News presenter Nik Gowing. Over 250 participants came from a broad range of locations and subject backgrounds; a total of 57 states were represented. Full coverage of the conference including the speaker agenda, transcripts of the sessions and blog posts from IISS experts can be found on the IISS website.
A sculpture by Swedish artist Carl Fredrik Reuterswaerd called Non Violence, outside UN headquarters in New York
The Chemical Weapons Convention in the Middle East
The Day after the Deadline: Assessing the Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon reports on the investigation into Syria’s chemical weapons use, December 2013 (UN)
Catherine Ashton and Mohammad Zarif at the P5+1 Talks on Iran’s Nuclear Program (US Mission Geneva/Eric Bridiers)
On 4 August 2014, in collaboration with the Organisation for the Prohibition
On 22 July 2014, Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-Proliferation
of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the IISS hosted a workshop on ‘Bringing
and Disarmament programme at IISS, and Dina Esfandiary, a Research
the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) into effect throughout the
Associate in the same department, assessed the status of nuclear negotia-
Middle East’. The workshop aimed to stimulate discussion in the Middle
tions with Iran two days after the P5+1 and Iran failed to meet the 20 July
East about the benefits of and prospects for regional universalisation of the
deadline for a comprehensive nuclear deal. While significant progress had
CWC. Additionally, it sought to aid understanding of and provide help
been made on some aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme, deep differences
for overcoming the existing obstacles to adherence by the two remaining
over what is considered a permissible size for the programme and how
regional holdouts: Israel and Egypt. It was agreed that events in Syria rein-
long restrictions on it should remain in place proved insurmountable in
forced the global consensus against chemical weapons and spiked interest
the end. Speakers assessed the growing domestic pressure felt by both the
in the universalisation of the treaty. Participants also discussed possible
Iranian and US negotiating teams, and the likely sticking points of the next
accession timelines for remaining holdouts and confidence-building meas-
round of talks. The meeting was chaired by Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for
ures that both states could take. A report of the workshop can be found on
US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; an audio recording can be
the IISS website.
found here.
16
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OCTOBER 2014
IISS NEWS
CHINA
CYBER SECURITY
China’s Cyber Power
TRANSNATIONAL THREATS AND POLITICAL RISK
The Sovereignty Conundrum in Cyberspace
The campus of Baidu, one of China’s largest search engines, Beijing (hwanghsuhui)
On 23 July, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel
Data communication cables (iStock)
Inkster discussed China’s cyber capability and security concerns at Arundel House. He noted that China’s capacity for cyber espionage is
On 18 September, Aadya Shukla, Research Scientist at MIT’s Computer
highly developed, and focuses particularly on the US defence sector. Fears
Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, discussed the complexi-
of the Internet being used as a ‘vector for political subversion’ by the West
ties of sustaining national sovereignty in the cyber domain. Chaired by
have also led to the creation of an extremely comprehensive system of
Director for Transnational Threats and Geopolitical Risk Nigel Inkster,
cyber censorship and surveillance, the Golden Shield Project.
the event drew on several established models of sovereignty to examine
However, China’s information structures remain extremely vulnerable
how its definition has evolved with the addition of a cyber dimension.
to cyber attacks due to an overdependence on Western cyber systems and
Shukla advocated a more pluralistic understanding of the term, one that
inadequate and badly implemented cyber legislation. Thus while the flow
extends beyond traditional ideas such as territorial sovereignty to include
of information into the country is well monitored, the theft of information
the concept of data sovereignty. She defined this as the capacity of national
from China by external parties remains a significant risk. To address this
governments to protect those ‘information assets’ which, if released into
problem, the Chinese government has established a Leading Small Group
cyberspace, could undermine a country’s position on the world stage.
on Internet Security and Informatisation.
These included, for example, high-level financial information or data
Inkster concluded by noting that China has taken an active role in
on developments in defence technology. Elaborating on this concept,
discussions of the application of international law to the cyber domain.
Shukla identified the four key layers of cyber over which governments
The vastness and complexity of this field, he added, meant that significant
must maintain control to protect their sovereignty in this domain: physi-
negotiation would be required before a suitable implementation method
cal (infrastructure), logical (network connections), informational (content),
could be agreed upon.
and social (network users). Establishing truly globalised standards to
The event was chaired by James Hackett, Senior Fellow for Defence and
govern the creation of and access to each layer, she concluded, would be
Military Analysis and Editor of The Military Balance. Audio of the discus-
essential to building a practical concept of national sovereignty in cyber-
sion is available here.
space. Listen to the full presentation here.
INDIA
EXPERTS
SOUTH ASIA
Security Challenges and Strategic Imperatives for India M.K. Narayanan, former governor of West Bengal and national security advisor to then-prime minister Dr Manmohan Singh, warned on 23 September that a new version of jihad was attracting a ’small but steady stream’ of Indian youth, numbering between 100 and 150, to fight with ISIS in Syria and Iraq. As almost all of these recruits were professionals, Narayanan noted that it was clearly not social exclusion at home, but rather the particular appeal of ISIS that was the real concern. Yet Narayanan argued that al-Qaeda’s recent decision to expand into India was ‘not a major threat’. Speaking at Arundel House, Narayanan stated that India did not face any existential threat from any external source, despite its border dispute with China and intense rivalry with Pakistan. He suggested that neither of these disputes were likely to lead to open conflict, noting in particular the recent substantial reduction in separatist sentiment in Kashmir. He concluded that India’s response to security challenges needed a coordinated approach between the centre and the states. However, he added, the relationship between these two levels of government was currently ‘frayed at the edges’ and would require some mending before significant progress could be made. IISS NEWS
ISIS militants (Kamna Arora)
OCTOBER 2014 | 17
SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT
MEXICO
CHINA
NIGERIA
Forgotten, But Not Gone: the Continuing Threat of Boko Haram
EXPERTS
China and the UK in Central Asia
British soldiers from the Brigade Reconnaissance Force in Afghanistan (Wes Calder/ Crown Copyright) Civilian militias patrol in Maiduguri, in the Nigerian state of Borno (Diego Ibarra/Flickr)
On 9 September the Security and Development Programme, together The kidnapping of over 200 Nigerian schoolgirls in April sparked inter-
with the Saferworld organisation, hosted a half-day roundtable session
national outrage and prompted several countries, including Britain and
to discuss knowledge-exchange and possible cooperation between China
the United States, to offer support for the search for the missing girls
and the UK in preventing conflict in Central Asian countries. During the
held by Boko Haram. Visiting IISS–US on 15 July, Research Fellow for
morning, participants traded lessons learnt from Afghanistan but also
Security and Development Virginia Comolli discussed the implications
from the broader Central Asian region. It was clear by the end of the
of Boko Haram’s insurgency for Nigeria, its repercussions for other West
meeting that greater cooperation was indeed welcome, but a number of
African countries and the role of non-African partners (the US in par-
unanswered questions remained, particularly on division of labour and
ticular) in dealing with the security challenges the group presented. In
the nature of collaboration. Chinese delegates stressed that cooperation
addition, Comolli highlighted how Nigeria, and the African continent
on border security would be more politically feasible than military-to-
more broadly, has acquired greater strategic importance for Washington
military cooperation. Conversely, some British participants argued
in recent years – in part owing to its economic potential and the growing
in favour of the latter. For instance, one military expert suggested that
local consumer market – and how American and Western interests in the
China could share with Britain its experience in peacekeeping operations.
region have become vulnerable to attacks and therefore justified growing
The meeting was part of a broader Saferworld-led project on ‘China–UK
Western apprehension towards Nigeria’s insurgency. A video of the event
Partnership on Conflict Prevention’ that involves Chinese and British
can be found on the IISS website.
conflict experts.
Criminal Threats to Mexico’s Energy Revolution With the energy sector reform recently approved by Mexico’s congress, foreign companies interested in entering this lucrative market will have to face the challenge of organised crime. This threat was analysed at a discussion meeting on 30 September with Gustavo Mohar, former director of Mexico’s national security intelligence agency CISEN, and Juan Carlos Boué, Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. The event was chaired by Antônio Sampaio, IISS Research Analyst for Security and Development.
Wind turbine in Baja California Sur, Mexico (iStock)
Mohar emphasised the complexity of Mexico’s criminal underworld, where big cartels still operate but smaller groups have emerged in recent
Boué emphasised that Pemex has faced obstacles in increasing the
years. These new groups are contributing to an increase in kidnappings
amount of oil it extracts. Whereas expectations are high regarding the
and extortion. The Mexican state has strived to strengthen law enforcement
energy reform, fiscal income from new oil and gas fields will depend
and state presence in rural areas, but still faces challenges to its authority in
on the decisions taken by the Mexican government regarding the level
some regions, such as Tamaulipas state, which holds huge potential shale
of taxation for hydrocarbon projects. A full video of the event can be
gas reserves.
found here.
18
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OCTOBER 2014
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
UKRAINE
ASIA-PACIFIC
CHINA
IISS–US
Energy Security and the Ukraine Crisis On September 24, Pierre Noël, IISS Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security, spoke at the IISS–US on energy security and the Ukraine crisis. He explained that ‘there is almost no credible scenario in which Ukraine can avoid a very severe gas shortage this winter’, which represents a considerable threat to the Ukrainian public and economy. Furthermore, the energy dilemma entangling Europe, Ukraine and Russia has the possibility to transcend the coming season and affect the core of relations between the West and Russia. The Ukraine crisis has the
Russian Gazprom workers monitor production at a gas field on the Yamal Peninsula, northern Russia (Gazprom)
potential to draw Europe into mingling its energy interests with geopolitics, jeopardising more than just Ukraine’s uncertain future. The European
United States and Europe. This will come in the form of financial assistance
decision to either allow or block the further development of the South
to make Ukraine’s economy sustainable with market-priced energy. This
Stream pipeline will determine the direction the confrontation between the
might however be ‘much more expensive than people usually acknowl-
West and Russia will take.
edge’.
If Ukraine continues down the path of alignment with the EU, the burden to make Ukraine resilient to Russian influence will fall on the
This discussion was moderated by Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, and can be viewed on the IISS YouTube channel.
Adelphi Launch: Beyond Air-Sea Battle On July 17, Aaron Friedberg, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, discussed his IISS Adelphi book, Beyond AirSea Battle: The Debate over US Military Strategy in Asia. He was joined by Elbridge Colby, Robert M. Gates Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, who provided commentary. The book focuses on the implications of China’s military build-up, the belated response by the US to regional changes and its current lack of a developed strategy, and differing options
US and Japanese naval vessels during exercise Keen Sword 2013 in the East China Sea (Jennifer A. Villalovos/US Navy)
for the future of US military strategy in Asia. China’s development of ‘antiaccess/area-denial’ (A2/AD) weapons has increased the risks to American
straints. Elbridge Colby added to Friedberg’s framework by illuminating
military forces and its allies in the Asia–Pacific. The key conclusions of
that the ‘Air-Sea Battle’ doctrine does not solely focus on direct approaches
the book centre around the current debate on the appropriate American
to maintaining military interests in the region but also leaves the option for
strategy to address China’s new military developments. Critical issues
indirect approaches open.
regarding the debate include the implications of not developing a distinct and strong strategy and the influence of financial, social and political con-
This discussion was moderated by Bryce Campell, Managing Director, IISS–US, and can be viewed on the IISS website.
Appointments The IISS welcomes the following; Kaila Coulston
MEMBERSHIP
Exclusive Services for Members
Senior Conference Coordinator
The Library has recently purchased two new excit-
configurable one-stop search facility that searches
Lilli Harkonen
ing products, which offer great benefits to members.
and provides full-text access to items from both the
The first is a new database, the International
ISCTRC database and open-source material on the
Security and Counter-Terrorism Reference Centre
theme of international relations, plus searches IISS
(ISCTRC), which offers full-text access to over 3,000
Library catalogue holdings.
Conference Coordinator Stephanie Love Conference Manager Kat Slowe Media Relations & Communications Officer
IISS NEWS
items relating to international security or terrorism,
Members can access this platform via links in the
such as journal articles, e-books, reports, etc. The
members’ area or the Library area of the IISS web-
second is the EBSCO Discovery Platform, a highly
site.
OCTOBER 2014 | 19
IISS–MIDDLE EAST
GEO-ECONOMICS
IISS Geo-economics and Strategy Conference
EXPERTS
Kamal bin Ahmed, Minister of Transportation and Acting Chief Executive of the Bahrain EDB, delivered the keynote address on the evening of 7 September. During his opening remarks, Ahmed stressed the importance of developing a post-oil economy: ‘The challenge for us should be to ensure that our current prosperity is not something that we look back on in thirty years as a short-lived golden age. After all, oil will not last forever – we need to make sure that we develop economies that are able to thrive in the post-oil era. If we are to maintain and increase our current levels of prosperity for the next generation, and if we are to ensure that the benefits of this growth are shared widely across society, we need to continue to invest in economic diversification.’ Stressing the need to develop the human resource potential, Kito de Boer, Director, Middle East, McKinsey & Company, announced that he is more worried about education and skill-building in the region than running out of oil reserves.
View of Manama’s financial district, Kingdom of Bahrain (iStock)
Ibrahim Dabdoub, Deputy Chairman, International Bank of Qatar, called for a comprehensive economic strategy, which he termed a ‘pan-Arab
From 7–8 September, the IISS Geo-economics and Strategy Programme con-
Marshall development plan’, in order to combat the lack of economic oppor-
vened a conference entitled ‘Business Opportunity and Political Risk in the
tunity fuelling unrest in the region, and to be financed by wealthy countries in
Gulf and Middle East’ at the Sofitel Bahrain. The two-day meeting, in col-
the GCC. Delegates further deliberated the need to utilise the region’s demo-
laboration with the Bahrain Economic Development Board (EDB) brought
graphic dividend (that is its exploding youth population) and for stronger
together business leaders, policymakers and experts to discuss economic
private-sector collaboration in tandem with government policymaking.
prospects in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and the wider Middle East.
Other speakers included: Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director, Geo-economics
Over one hundred delegates representing some two dozen countries in
and Strategy, IISS; Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the
the Middle East, Europe, North America and Asia came to Bahrain for this
Middle East, IISS; Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security,
initiative. Delegates participated in sessions focused on the geopolitical
IISS; Danny E. Sebright, President, US–UAE Business Council; Adel Ali,
survey of the Gulf; Gulf models of development and policy; economic policy
Group Chief Executive Officer, Air Arabia; Sheik Mohamed Bin Khalifa
and regional prospects; and energy and economic sustainability in the region.
Al Khalifa, Chief Executive, The Oil and Gas Holding Company, Bahrain;
In light of recent political developments and energy security concerns in the
Atul Punj, Chairman, Punj Lloyd; and Jeffrey Johnson, President, Middle
Middle East, the conference proved to be a timely gathering that emphasised
East, Boeing Company. Coverage and resources from the conference can
the human capital potential in the GCC.
be found on the IISS website.
DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS
EXPERTS
INTERVENTION
Delivering the Integrated Approach in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States Mark White, Deputy Head of the UK’s Stabilisation Unit (SU) – an integrated civil–military operational unit designed to operate in high-risk environments – spoke at Arundel House on 10 September. The discussion, chaired by James Hackett, Senior Fellow for Defence and Military Analysis and Editor of The Military Balance, examined UK strategies towards fragile and conflict-affected states. A key element in the SU’s work is the promotion of an ‘integrated
Stabilisation Unit staff gather information on the humanitarian situation at Salloum on the Libya–Egypt border (Daniel Murphy/Stabilisation Unit)
approach’ to tackling instability through shared understanding of conflict contexts and joint analysis, planning and delivery of objectives by
that even in ‘peace time’, integration becomes standard practice.
all relevant UK government departments. The previous ‘comprehensive
White concluded that integration – requiring adaptation, compromise,
approach’, White explained, had been collective at the strategic level but
and extensive resources – was not easy. Further, stabilisation sometimes
still led to responses focused on individual departmental activities.
necessitated choosing the ‘least bad’ option. However, the political appetite
White suggested that increased funding from a new £1bn Conflict, Stability and Security Fund might create more incentives for departments to proactively collaborate. He also emphasised the importance of ensuring
20
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OCTOBER 2014
for integration is clear, and the UK government hopes that both local and international actors could learn from its efforts in this area. Listen to the discussion at iiss.org.
IISS NEWS
OBITUARY
A tribute to Patricia Olive Evans 23 June 1927–13 August 2014
given a place. In a voluntary institution, dependent on members’ support, this selection process had to be done very carefully. Patricia ran the office with skill, excellent judgement, good humour and a keen eye on saving precious money. She was particularly good at select-
Patricia Olive Evans, who served at the IISS for 27 years from the early
ing office and other supporting staff, short-listing the applicants before
1960s to 1990, died on 13 August 2014. She was a great tower of strength
bringing them forward for final interviews and selection.
for the IISS and will be sorely missed by the entire IISS community. Our
She had a great sense of personal commitment to the Institute, working
President–Emeritus, Professor Sir Michael Howard, and four directors of
long hours when needed, especially through a lengthy period when she
the IISS; Christoph Bertram, Robert O’Neill, Francois Heisbourg and Dr
had severe mobility problems due to pain in her hip. She was impressive
John Chipman remember her:
and reassuring in manner. She could be firm with those who did not meet her standards, but she also had a good sense of humour and a warm nature.
‘When the Institute was founded – and for almost a decade after that – it
She was greatly liked and respected by staff and members of the Institute.
was run effectively by four people. There was Alastair Buchan as Director;
In the Tavistock Street building her office was immediately below mine and
there was Arthur Majendie as Secretary and Treasurer; there was Kenneth
from time to time, when I needed some relief from the pressures of dealing
Hunt as Director of Studies: and there was Patricia Evans. Patricia was sec-
with everything coming in, it was wonderful to slip downstairs to Patricia’s
retary to all three, dealt with the correspondence, looked after the members
office, sit in the tub chair in front of her desk and just have a chat. Thank you
and organised the conferences. She knew everyone and did everything:
Patricia – you made a deal of difference to my time at the IISS!’ Bob O’Neill, IISS Director, 1982–87
without her the whole affair would have come to a grinding halt. If historians find maddening gaps in the early records of the IISS, it is because records did not have to be kept: Patricia knew and remembered everything,
‘Affection, respect and fondness, are just some of the words that spring
so there was no need to write it down. She was like a mother to our small
to mind on learning the sad news of her death. Generations of research
family, sorting out our problems, calm and comforting in crises and, when
associates, visiting fellows, not to mention successive directors and staff
we grew up, basking happily in our success. Eventually we had to learn
members of the IISS, know what they owe to her, and how the Institute as
to do without her, but like all mothers, she was irreplaceable. Subsequent
a whole was a better and happier place thanks to her. It is a fortunate insti-
generations can have no idea how much they owe to her.’
tution indeed which benefitted from the loyalty, the devotion, dare I say
Professor Sir Michael Howard, President-Emeritus
the love, of Patricia during its years of early growth and blossoming maturity. The IISS, like any organisation or group of individuals, reflects the
‘Institutions, like humans, blossom if people who work with them love them.
strengths and sometimes the frailties of the human beings which compose
Patricia truly loved the IISS throughout the three decades in which she served
it: but the qualities the Institute has and the culture which distinguishes it
it. As directors and researchers moved on, she watched over the Institute’s
from others are very much Patricia’s legacy.
inner workings and outward appearance and ensured their high standard.
As a Frenchman, I may have been more sensitive than those of British
I first met her in 1967, arriving from Germany as a young RA. In the
extraction to one of Patricia’s most distinctive traits, and that was her ‘scep-
fifteen years we worked together, not least in my time as Director from
tered isle’ quality. For foreigners, who are by definition a majority in a truly
1974–1982, I learned to value her judgement and to profit from it. Her then
international institute, Patricia provided reassurance and grounding, a sense
official title of Office Manager barely conveyed her role: she was an indis-
of place, indeed a sense of home – a happy home. I believe that this form
pensable member of the Institute’s directing staff. It was Patricia who first
of belonging and internal stability within the Institute made it the solid
had the idea of honouring the Institute’s first director, Alastair Buchan,
platform from which it has been able to transform, and sometimes construc-
with the annual lecture bearing his name.
tively destabilise, the terms of the global strategic debate over the decades.
She was sharp, shrewd, principled and formidable. On occasions, she
Thank you Patricia, and may you rest in peace.’ François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS
could be immensely charming, her eyes warm and tinkling. On others she had an acerbic wit which she delivered with a little chuckle. The one that stays in my mind is Patricia’s favourite saying when she disliked someone:
‘“You should ask Mrs Evans.” When I first came to the IISS as a young
“you would wish his parents never met.” The IISS and all those who knew
researcher from Oxford this is what I was told by everyone at Tavistock
her and worked with her can be grateful that hers did.’
Street. Mrs Evans would advise on how to deal with any issue of life at
Christoph Bertram, IISS Director, 1974–1982
the Institute. She had the full confidence of every member of staff, and understood the heart and soul of the organisation like no other. She knew
‘Patricia was one of the most effective members of the Institute’s staff for
how to gently rein in the overenthusiastic ideas of a new recruit, while
nearly thirty years. She ran the office, kept a friendly and helpful eye on
encouraging those with good ideas to carry them out. She engaged with
the research associates, administered meetings and conferences, kept the
the council, the membership and the staff as part of an extended family to
minutes of council and executive committee meetings, and was a wonder-
whom she felt a duty of care. I certainly always felt a duty, whenever I saw
ful source of advice to the director on what was happening throughout
her, to know what she thought about something or someone. Before the
the Institute. One of her special strengths was knowledge of our members
phrase ‘emotional intelligence’ entered the business lexicon, she embodied
and what they had to contribute to the Institute’s work. Her guidance on
its core meaning. Her combination of tact and firmness carried a natural
which applicants we should accept for a place at our annual conference
authority to which everyone happily deferred. I often wish I could still ask
was extremely helpful. In the 1980s we usually had to disappoint 150–200
Mrs Evans. When I can imagine her answer, it always helps. Some people
applicants from among our members each year, so the operation was not
remain a guide when they are gone. Bless her.’
without costs in personal feelings on the part of those who could not be IISS NEWS
Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of IISS
For details of how to contact the IISS >
OCTOBER 2014 | 21