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September 2015
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IISS–Fullerton Lecture: Debating the Contemporary International Order
Madam Fu Ying, Chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee, National People’s Congress of China
On 29 July, Madam Fu Ying, Chairperson of the
twenty-first century. Reviewing the foundations
President Xi Jinping’s calls for a ‘community of
Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s
of Chinese foreign policy, which have been heav-
common interest’, Madam Fu advocated a more
Congress of China, delivered the 22nd IISS–
ily influenced by the humiliations of the colonial
equitable and inclusive global order focused on
Fullerton Lecture: ‘Debating the Contemporary
period, she contrasted China’s current interna-
development rather than power politics. She
International Order’. Madam Fu’s starting point
tional standing with the continued existence of
answered a range of questions from the large
was an assessment of Henry Kissinger’s book
an ‘outmoded’ United States-dominated world
invited audience on China’s military capabili-
World Order, which had prompted Chinese schol-
order. Madam Fu warned that, in order to avoid
ties, Beijing’s concerns over encirclement, UN
ars to become involved in the debate over the
an escalation in rivalry, the US and China should
Security Council reform, the Asian Infrastructure
potential impact of new powers – notably their
stop talking past one another and instead focus
Investment Bank and religious extremism and
own country – on the international order. Madam
on shared interests and concerns. China wanted
terrorism. Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of
Fu highlighted that the key unanswered ques-
not to challenge the US, but rather to build a new
IISS-Asia, chaired the event.
tion is what sort of order the world wants in the
global order in cooperation with the US. Echoing
Watch the full event here.
IISS–ASIA
FULLERTON LECTURES
INDIA
CHINA
IISS–Fullerton Lecture: India, the United States and China that will determine the strategic balance of Asia and beyond’. India welcomed ‘the growing reality of a multi-polar world’, he said. The Foreign Secretary echoed the consensus shared by many Asia-Pacific governments that they do not have to ‘choose sides’ between the US, the region’s dominant power, and China, the region’s rising power. He furthermore urged Asian states to move beyond ‘twentieth-century orthodoxies’ – a reference to the Cold War logic of two opposing poles of influence. He argued that India and the US were finding many areas of common interest, while India’s relations with China – historically a rival – were more nuanced but no less significant. During Modi’s visit to China in May, Modi and Xi agreed that both countries were
Dr S. Jaishankar, Foreign Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, India
‘major powers in the region and the world’. In On 20 July, India’s Foreign Secretary Dr S.
in India, particularly in terms of the ‘big shift’
conclusion, the Foreign Secretary argued that
Jaishankar, who had previously served as
in
countries.
India was engaging the world with ‘greater
the Indian ambassador to both Beijing and
Moreover, in the wake of President Obama’s
confidence and assurance’. In his view, ‘shared
Washington DC, delivered the 21st IISS–
visit to India on its Republic Day in January 2015
power, if it works for all parties, will be at the
Fullerton Lecture: ‘India, the United States and
and the meeting between Modi and China’s
heart of Asia’s emerging security architecture’.
China’. The Foreign Secretary began by noting
President Xi Jinping in Xian during May, Dr
Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS-Asia,
the important foreign policy implications of
Jaishankar suggested that the ‘interplay of India
chaired the event.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership
with the US and China is among the key factors
MIDDLE EAST AND THE GULF
IRAQ
relations
with
neighbouring
Watch the full event here.
ISLAMIC STATE
EXPERTS
The Future of Iraq and the Fight against ISIS The US-led campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has probably only won back 10% of the Iraqi territory seized by the violent jihadists last year, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East Toby Dodge estimates. Despite more than 4,000 US air-strikes over Iraq in the past 12 months, the roughly $10 million-a-day campaign had reached a stalemate, Dodge told an Arundel House discussion meeting on 17 September. He explained that, while there was optimism in the Pentagon and the Iraqi military after
Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga forces south of Kirkuk (Ali Mukarrem Garip/Anadolu/Getty)
the recapture of Tikrit in early April 2015, government efforts since July to retake Ramadi, west of Baghdad, had floundered. Dodge believed the continued resilience of ISIS demonstrated that it was a violent symptom of much larger structural problems plaguing
remained in a very weak position. While most citizens still backed a unitary Iraq, arguments for partition were growing in both Sunni and Shia communities.
Iraq at least since the US invasion and regime change in 2003. These, he
In the Q&A session, Dodge answered questions on whether former
explained, were largely political and sectarian. ‘For Iraq to be brought back
US president George W. Bush or his successor, Barack Obama, ‘lost’ Iraq;
together, it is these political problems that need to be solved,’ he said.
whether Islamic State really was a ‘state’; and how the Iran nuclear deal
He welcomed the replacement of the authoritarian Nuri al-Maliki
could impact regional security. The meeting was chaired by Dr Dana Allin,
with Haider al-Abadi as prime minister in August 2014, as well as Abadi’s
Senior Fellow for Transatlantic Security and the Editor of Survival: Global
attempts to reform the judiciary, fight corruption and end the sectarian
Politics and Strategy.
muhasasa division of government. He emphasised, however, that Abadi
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You can see view the discussion here.
IISS NEWS
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
EUROPE
RUSSIA AND EURASIA
EVENTS
Press Launch – Strategic Survey 2015: The Annual Review of World Affairs The press launch of Strategic Survey 2015: The Annual Review of World Affairs took place on 15 September at Arundel House. The book covers a year in which the Islamic State of Iraq and alSham became a major concern for governments across the world, an Ebola outbreak swept across West Africa, the United States and Cuba moved towards detente, European unity was shaken by a debt crisis in Greece and an international deal to curb Iran’s nuclear programme was reached. A significant theme of the year was the proliferation of threats to the international rules-based order favoured by the West. Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, said in his press statement that ‘“rule breaking” is not being effectively deterred. Facts on the ground, sea, air and in cyberspace are being created that confront, rather than reinforce, established norms.’ He added that ‘there are now more exporters of insecurity than exporters of strategic stability, and so Strategic
IISS experts speak to the press following the launch
Survey 2015 concludes that strategic unease will persist for some time’.
section on ‘Drivers of Strategic Change’, setting
contains a chronology of the year’s key events.
As well as detailed chapters on each region
out the key events and trends shaping the poli-
Journalists’ questions were answered by a
and the opening ‘Perspectives’ and closing
tics and security of each region. The ‘Strategic
panel made up of John Chipman, Nigel Inkster,
‘Prospectives’ sections, the book includes essays
Geography’ chapter includes maps of the flow
Mark Fitzpatrick, Emile Hokayem and Samuel
on the fall in the oil price, Russia’s military
of migrants across the Mediterranean, China’s
Charap.
reforms and international efforts to mitigate
growing foreign investments and the challenges
climate change. These are complemented by a
facing Nigeria’s new president. The book also
Watch a video of the press launch and read the press statement here.
Introducing Strategic Survey 2015 the year, region by region. It includes essays that ana lyse the changes in the oil price, Russia’s efforts at military modernisation, and global moves to combat climate The
change. Strategic
Geography section includes maps on In a short video, IISS experts who have con-
the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean,
tributed to Strategic Survey 2015 explain what’s
the outbreak of the Ebola virus in Africa, and
contained in the think tank’s annual review of
China’s external investment. The book con-
You can buy Strategic Survey 2015 here,
world affairs.
tains a chronology of key events around the
as well as browse chapter summaries, see
world.
free content and download the list of con-
Strategic Survey 2015: The Annual Review of World Affairs assesses the events and themes of
IISS NEWS
You can see the video here.
tents.
SEPTEMBER 2015 | 3
NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT
IRAN
NON-PROLIFERATION
Assessing the (Presumptive) Iran Nuclear Deal On 10 July, the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme held a discussion meeting at Arundel House in anticipation of the final agreement between Iran and the E3+3 on the nuclear issue. While the 9 July deadline was postponed at the last minute, the event served as a good opportunity to assess the negotiation process thus far. Programme Director Mark Fitzpatrick analysed the prospective solutions in three areas which remained contentious until the very last moment: sanctions relief; verification measures, including the so-called possible military dimensions (PMD) of Iran’s past nuclear work; and limits on research and development. He remained optimistic that an agreement would ultimately be reached – a prediction that was proven accurate just four days later. Watch the discussion on the IISS website.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini during the talks in Vienna, Austria (EEAS/AFP/Samuel Kubani)
After the Iran Nuclear Deal On 29 July, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme Director Mark Fitzpatrick joined Senior Fellow for Middle East Security Emile Hokayem for a webinar on the potential impact of an Iran nuclear deal. The conversation focused on the nuclear-related aspects of the agreement and the likely timetable for sanctions relief, as well as the probable impact of the deal on regional security in the Middle East. On the nuclear side, Fitzpatrick highlighted the significant achievements of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in constricting Iran’s nuclear programme, effectively blocking both its uranium and plutonium pathways to a bomb. He dubbed it a ‘Lausanne Plus’ for improving on the framework agreement reached in April. He added that the deal strengthens the global nuclear non-proliferation regime as a whole, but that there are still several ways in which it could fall apart in the coming years. Hokayem, in turn, analysed the reactions of the Gulf States to the deal,
Federica Mogherini, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy; Donald Tusk, European Council President; Hassan Rouhani, President of Iran; and Mohammad Zarif, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs at the UN, September 2015 (EEAS)
concluding that their responses will ultimately be more important than the deal itself for regional stability. He suggested the nuclear issue was
role in how the regional relationships develop. As Hokayem predicted,
never at the forefront of regional concerns and that the deal will thus not
there is likely to be a lot of brinksmanship in this context, particularly from
be judged on its merits. Domestic politics in Iran, too, will play a significant
Saudi Arabia. Access the webinar here.
UK–China Nuclear Security On 28 July, Arundel House held a workshop in partnership with the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), designed to strengthen cooperation between Chinese and Western experts on nuclear issues. Building on a tradition of close engagement with Chinese experts at previous workshops, this meeting considered China’s domestic civil nuclear programme and associated fuel-cycle policies, as well as its broader role in global nuclear governance. It attracted more than 20 specialists from China, France, the United Kingdom and the United States, updating them on the current developments regarding Sino–UK civil nuclear cooperation. Read the full workshop report.
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Nuclear power plant at Zhejiang, China (Atomic Energy of Canada)
IISS NEWS
ORGANISED CRIME
EXPERTS
Violence, Organised Crime and Mexico’s Search for a Strategy
BRAZIL
MEXICO
SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT
Urban Warfare in the ‘Marvellous City’: Securing Rio from the Gangs
Rocinha favela, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (Stephen White/Flickr)
As part of the Security and Development Programme’s research activities on urban issues, Arundel House hosted a discussion meeting on 9
Mexican military police (antefixus U.E./Flickr)
July on Rio de Janeiro’s pacification strategy. Speakers included Antônio Following several cases of human-rights violations and high-profile armed
Sampaio, Research Associate for Security and Development at the IISS,
clashes linked to criminal activity in Mexico, on 2 September Arundel House
and Christoph Harig, Doctoral Researcher at the Brazil Institute of King’s
hosted two experienced analysts to discuss security policies there: Dr Raúl
College, London. Nigel Inkster, IISS Director for Transnational Threats
Benítez-Manaut, a professor at the National University of Mexico (UNAM)
and Political Risk, chaired the event.
and Guadalupe González, professor in the Department of International
Sampaio and Harig analysed the recent increase in criminal attacks in
Studies at the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económica (CIDE).
Rio, just as the mega-city is preparing to host the 2016 Summer Olympic
González provided a historical context for Mexico’s criminal violence,
Games. Sampaio highlighted the role of Rio’s Military Police and their
saying that Mexican authorities in the 1980s and 1990s were unprepared
repressive strategic posture based on urban warfare tactics. He noted
for the rise of criminality linked to the transnational cocaine trade. The
that, while the pacification programme presents a break from the past
response so far has been marked by an armed strategy involving police and
by attempting to combine police presence with development initiatives,
military forces. Policymakers, she said, have failed to formulate a coherent
authorities are facing difficulties transitioning to a truly accountable and
security strategy that goes beyond this punitive approach.
community-based policing model.
Benítez-Manaut highlighted the fragmentation of the drug cartels
Harig focused on the role of the armed forces in securing the most
during the 2000s in response to increased government pressure, ulti-
unstable slums in Rio and performing internal law-enforcement duties.
mately resulting in more violence. He also mentioned the recent arrival of
The military is deployed, he said, when police forces are considered insuf-
two different types of drugs in Mexico: methamphetamines and heroine,
ficient to stabilise areas facing heavy firepower by criminal groups. He
the consumption of both of which is increasing in the US. The meeting
highlighted the labour-intensive nature of the urban pacification pro-
was chaired by Antônio Sampaio, Research Associate for Security and
gramme and the strain it places on the state. Listen to the event on the IISS
Development at the IISS.
website.
Appointments
Survival: Global Politics and Strategy
The IISS welcomes the following:
In the October–November 2015 issue of Survival, Avis Bohlen, Mark
Jennifer Golden
Fitzpatrick, Michael Hanna, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Thomas Moore and
IISS-US Managing Director
Bruno Tertrais discuss the ramifications of the Iranian nuclear deal and
Emily Werk
the extent of Iran’s regional influence; William Walker and Erik Jones
Special Projects Consultant, IISS-US Erika Ma Operations Administrator, IISS-US Caitlin Vito Research Events Administrator
examine dilemmas of nationalism and disunion in Europe; Lawrence Freedman explores the art of exhaustion in strategy; Elinor Sloan outlines the role of robotics at war; Peter Dombrowski and Simon Reich sketch out the strategy of ‘sponsorship’; Christopher Fettweis identifies symptoms of misreading the enemy; Ben Fishman and Alexa van Sickle contribute review essays on Libya and Cuba; Teresita Schaffer, H.R.
Bonnie Bley
McMaster, Pierre Hassner and Ray Takeyh contribute book reviews; and Matthew Harries outlines
Editorial Assistant, Online
the challenge for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn.
IISS NEWS
SEPTEMBER 2015 | 5
SOUTH ASIA
PAKISTAN
BANGLADESH
INDIA
EXPERTS
Nuclear Security in Pakistan On 7 July, IISS Visiting Fellow Air Commodore Dr Adil Sultan spoke off the record to IISS members on Pakistan’s commitment to ensuring the security of its civil and nuclear programme. Sultan, also Director of Research and Analysis at the Policy, Doctrine & Strategy Branch of Pakistan’s National Command Authority’s Strategic Plans Division, stated that Pakistan considers itself a responsible nuclear state. He explained that the country’s programme was created in 1955 – mainly to ensure access to nuclear energy for peaceful uses – and that since
A meeting of the Pakistan National Command Authority, 9 September 2015 (ISPR)
1998, Pakistan has maintained a credible nuclear deterrent with a modest civil infrastructure.
Nuclear Security Summit in Washington DC next year. Furthermore,
Today, Sultan noted, Pakistan’s Centre of Excellence for Nuclear
Sultan added, Pakistan has a strongly institutionalised domestic policy
Security works with the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA),
and accompanying regulatory frameworks that guarantee the security of
providing training courses to enhance physical protection, material control
its nuclear enterprise.
and personal reliability at installations. The country also plays a proactive role in global nuclear governance, including contributing to the fourth
The event was chaired by Antoine Levesques, IISS Research Associate for South Asia.
Bangladesh and the UK: Countering religious radicalisation and extremism Bangladesh is a tinderbox, waiting to explode: that was the starkest message to emerge from a recent panel with the University of Dhaka’s Abul Barkat. Eight secular bloggers have been brutally murdered in Bangladesh since 2013, and some 123 militant Islamist organisations operate in the country. At the event, held at Arundel House, Professor Barkat said deteriorating socio-economic conditions had spurred increasingly politicised
Bangladeshi refugees in Arakan, Bangladesh (kisa kuyruk/Shutterstock)
religious identities. Widespread poverty, he explained, provided fertile ground for radicali-
The other panel speaker, IISS Director of Transnational Threats and
sation. Moreover, added Barkat, mainstream Islamist party Jamat-e-Islami
Political Risk Nigel Inkster, noted that individuals in Britain were often
Bangladesh threatened to institutionalise religious fundamentalism
involved in facilitating extremist acts in Bangladesh. Barkat said the UK
through its connections within politics, the judiciary, education, health and
government could assist Bangladesh by sponsoring deradicalisation pro-
the NGO community. Barkat proposed swift ‘risk reduction’ and ‘damage
grammes and supporting broader poverty-reduction measures.
minimisation’ through measures such as third-party audits to uncover links to extremists or confiscation of fundamentalist groups’ financial assets.
Watch the event, chaired by IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, here.
Governance in India: New Challenges and Opportunities On 13 July Ajit Seth, former Indian Cabinet Secretary, spoke at Arundel House of his work assisting the smooth transition of government after the 2014 landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party, advising Prime Minister Narendra Modi on major policies. With India’s GDP growing at 7.3%, Modi has the opportunity to make transformational changes to Indians’ lives. He is leveraging India’s large youthful workforce as ‘human capital’ by providing it with new opportunities, through headline-grabbing policy campaigns, to ‘clean India’, ‘Make in India’ and promote ‘Digital India’. Early successes include broadening Indians’ access to banking.
A Digital India event in San Jose, California, September 2015
Modi’s reformist ambitions will be tested over the passage of a controversial land acquisition law, labour market up-skilling and agricultural reform. As Indians expect to benefit from growth, Seth was confident Modi
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SEPTEMBER 2015
has a detailed plan to help meet these expectations with better governance. Listen to the full event here.
IISS NEWS
INDIA
FOREIGN POLICY
SOUTH ASIA
Shifts and Changes in India’s Foreign and Security Policy Under Modi India’s diplomacy has undergone one significant change and six key shifts during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first 14 months in office, said IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury at an Arundel House event on 23 July. The most obvious change, he explained, relates to the style and image of India’s diplomacy. Modi’s interactions with foreign leaders are highly personalised, and the prime minister has also deliberately sought to connect with the young and the Indian diaspora on his visits abroad. All of this has served to raise India’s global profile and has translated into a more
Narendra Modi in New York City, 2014
assertive and confident Indian diplomacy. In practical terms, Roy-Chaudhury explained, six key shifts are taking
deterioration in relations between the two countries. India is also seeking
place. Firstly, India now aspires to become a ‘leading’ rather than just a
a more proactive role in the Indian Ocean. In March 2015, Modi unveiled
‘balancing’ power, taking on a greater global role. Furthermore, Modi is
an Indian Ocean strategy, the first presented by an Indian prime minis-
willing to form a combined front with the US on Asia-Pacific security in
ter in decades. Finally, Roy-Chaudhury said that India is in the process of
relation to an assertive China. India is also seeking stronger trade and
abandoning its traditional support for Palestine in favour of backing Israel.
investment links with China, despite maintaining a firm stance on political issues. India’s position towards Pakistan is hardening, following a recent
Watch the full event, chaired by IISS Director of Editorial Dr Nicholas Redman, on the IISS website.
PUBLICATIONS
Special Offer: Strategic Survey 2015 and Armed Conflict Survey 2015
of the Ebola virus in Africa, and China’s external investment. The book contains a chronology of key global events and a section on drivers of strategic change around the world.
For a limited time, receive both Strategic
About the Armed Conflict Survey:
Survey 2015 and the new IISS publication
The Armed Conflict Survey (ACS) is a
Armed Conflict Survey at a 30% discount.
new annual publication that provides yearly data on fatalities, refugees and
About Strategic Survey:
internally displaced people for all
Strategic Survey 2015: The Annual Review of World
major armed conflicts, alongside in-
Affairs assesses the events and themes of the
depth analysis of their political, military and
and crossregional trends that have emerged
year, region by region. It includes essays that
humanitarian dimensions. The first edition of
over the past year, complementing the granular
analyse the changes in the oil price, Russia’s
the book covers the key developments and con-
approach to each conflict at the core of the book.
efforts at military modernisation, and global
text of more than 40 conflicts, including those in
The ACS also includes maps, infographics and
moves to combat climate change. The Strategic
Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo,
multi-year data, as well as the highly regarded
Geography section features maps on the flow of
Iraq, Myanmar, Syria and Yemen.
IISS Chart of Conflict.
migrants across the Mediterranean, the outbreak
The authors discuss the principal thematic
You can find details of the offer here.
IISS Oppenheimer Lecture 2015 On the tenth anniversary of the IISS Oppenheimer Lecture, Advocate Thuli Madonsela, Public Protector of South Africa, will examine the role of justice and good governance in regional and international peace, at Arundel House, London on Wednesday 14 October 2015. You can find further details here. Watch a brief video of highlights of the Oppenheimer Lecture series.
IISS NEWS
SEPTEMBER 2015 | 7
DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS
DEFENCE ECONOMICS
TERRORISM AND SECURITY
EXPERTS
UK Strategic Defence and Security Review – IISS Contributions The UK Conservative government is conducting a Strategic Defence and Security Review. This is against a background of reductions in the UK’s armed forces arising from the 2010 review, whilst the threats to the UK, Europe and the rules-based international order have significantly increased, not least as a result of the rise of ISIS and Russia’s annexation of the Crimea. IISS experts have contributed by engaging the UK Ministry of Defence
Typhoons at RAF Coningsby, Lincolnshire
and Cabinet Office – the central co-ordination machinery of government. The Institute also organised two events at Arundel House to highlight the
defence political and military leaders. Those giving their perspectives
key issues for the review, each stimulating much debate amongst large
were George Robertson, former UK Defence Secretary and Secretary-
audiences.
General of NATO, Liam Fox, former UK Defence Secretary, and General
The first, held on 18 May, saw a panel of IISS staff share their analysis,
Lord David Richards, former UK Chief of the General Staff and Chief
covering topics that included the risk from terrorism, the UK defence
of the Defence Staff. All three had conducted previous defence reviews
budget, cyber, maritime, land and aerospace issues. The second event,
and shared their practical experience of strategic leadership of UK
on 16 July, brought together a panel of distinguished former senior UK
defence.
Sea Change: New Maritime Horizons in a Changing World Nick Childs, the Institute’s new Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, made his public debut on 20 July at Arundel House with an inaugural talk on the extent to which the world faces a new strategic maritime moment, examining the emerging challenges in the South and East China Seas, the Mediterranean, the High North and the Gulf of Guinea. He discussed how globalisation and the rise of Asia – a predominantly maritime theatre – have led to more congestion and contestation at sea, as
USS Freedom during an exercise in the South China Sea (US Navy/Cassandra Thompson)
well as the rise of new naval powers that will increasingly be the arbiters of maritime events and developments.
The audience’s questions investigated the prospects for European
His talk furthermore considered how these shifts affect the utility of
maritime capabilities, the significance of new naval alliances, and solutions
conventional naval forces and traditional sea power, and whether new
for the increasing general lawlessness at sea. The meeting was chaired by
thinking is required on what constitutes security at sea and how it may
the Director of the Defence and Military Analysis Programme, Dr Bastian
be maintained.
Giegerich.
Thinking about Future Armed Conflict On 1 July Lieutenant-General H.R. McMaster, Director of the US Army Capabilities Integration Center, Deputy Commanding General of the Futures Center at US Army Training and Doctrine Command and IISS Senior Fellow, briefed IISS staff and corporate members on strategic trends in contemporary conflict and international security, assessing their implications for the future of warfare. There was a wide-ranging and frank discussion about the challenge of identifying the character of future conflict on land, as well as continuities and changes that are likely over the next decade. The event was chaired by Brigadier Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare.
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An Iraqi army soldier during training with US soldiers in Iraq (USAF/James Richardson)
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
ISLAMIC STATE
Two Unforeseen Wars: A Military Analysis of the Conflict in Ukraine and the Campaign against ISIS
UKRAINE
CHINA
FOREIGN POLICY
IISS–US
IISS-US Book Launch: China’s Strong Arm
Chinese citizens evacuated from Libya in 2011 (STR/AFP/Getty)
The IISS-US hosted the US launch of China’s Strong Arm: Protecting Citizens Ukrainian armoured vehicles during a NATO exercise (NATO)
and Assets Abroad in Washington, DC, in July. Speakers at the event included Jonas Parello-Plesner, co-author of China’s Strong Arm and head of the
Both the insurgency in eastern Ukraine and the rapid conquest of much
Foreign Policy Department at the Embassy of Denmark in Washington,
of northern and western Iraq by ISIS came as strategic shocks. Speaking
DC, and Yun Sun, Senior Associate for East Asia at the Stimson Center.
at an IISS–US event on 7 July, Brigadier Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land
Parello-Plesner began by outlining the salient hypothesis of China’s Strong
Warfare at IISS, examined the similarities and differences between both con-
Arm, arguing that China has increased its capacity to protect its nationals
flicts, presenting his assessment of the military dynamics and discussing the
and assets abroad in what may be deemed a relatively new development
emerging challenges that they pose for the US, NATO and their allies.
in Chinese foreign policy.
His conclusion revealed that both conflicts show leadership can act as a
‘In 2011, China rescued more than 47,000 Chinese abroad. That’s more
multiplier to military effectiveness, while corruption and nepotism erode
in a single year than in the previous decade,’ Parello-Plesner stated. Sun
military capability. He furthermore found that combined arms, artillery
contended that Beijing’s ability to protect nationals abroad plays a direct
and indirect fire have returned as major factors in contemporary warfare,
role in promoting the legitimacy of the government domestically.
stating ‘we may be seeing a reversion to historic combined arms warfare’. ‘Artillery is back, and it’s back with a vengeance,’ he said. Watch the full event here.
Both speakers discussed the long-term implications for Chinese foreign policy as China’s need to protect overseas assets increases. Watch the full discussion here.
CYBER SECURITY
Cyber Governance and Security: the Struggle for the Soul of the Future
MEMBERSHIP
sion that challenges their authority, also argue for the application of traditional concepts of state sovereignty in the cyber domain and seek international recognition for the right of states to monitor and filter content.
Speaking at Arundel House on 22 July, Nigel Inkster, Director of
The international debate has been
Transnational Threats and Political Risk, said that the issues of global
complicated by the revelations of
cyber governance and cyber security seemed remote and arcane to ordi-
Edward Snowden about the collection activities of NSA and by Sino-US
nary internet users, most of whom thought about security only in terms of
tensions over alleged Chinese state-sponsored industrial cyber espionage.
how to protect themselves against cyber criminality.
China in particular is looking to use its influence as the world’s largest user
However, cyber governance and security have become a major bat-
community, its economic influence as the world’s fastest growing market
tle-ground between two ideological camps: the so-called ‘like-minded’
for digital goods and services and the influence it derives from the fact
consisting of the US and its allies who stood for a continuation of the multi-
that Chinese national champions ZTE and Huawei are connecting the next
stakeholder model of internet governance and the free flow of information
two billion users to the Internet, to shape a global cyber environment that
on-line; and the authoritarian states led by China and Russia who, while
conforms to its interests. The long-term implications of this are unclear but
not rejecting the multi-stakeholder concept, argued for a governance model
possible outcomes include internet fragmentation if Western states find
centred on the United Nations giving governments a much greater say in
China’s exercise of cyber power unacceptable, or a more constrained and
governance issues. The latter, who see the internet as a vector for subver-
limiting global cyber environment
IISS NEWS
SEPTEMBER 2015 | 9
MEMBERSHIP
TERRORISM AND SECURITY
MIDDLE EAST
Cold wars, hot wars
EUROPEAN UNION
The Middle East after the Iran Nuclear Deal
A refugee camp in Iraqi Kurdistan (EU/ECHO/Caroline Gluck)
On 15 September Arundel House hosted the first special seminar from a series of events looking at the interplay between geopolitics and busi-
Tehran, Iran (Ninara/Flickr)
ness. We were delighted to be joined by IISS corporate partners and other experts from the business world for the occasion, which included both off-
On 11 September Arundel House hosted a corporate breakfast examining
the-record and on-the-record sessions.
the regional ramifications of the Iran nuclear deal.
Guest speaker Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, Group Head of Government
Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, discussed
Affairs for HSBC, spoke frankly and off the record of the need for engaged
how Gulf States have cautiously welcomed the deal, while the Western
corporate foreign policy. IISS corporate partners shared their own insights
world is hoping that it can lead to diplomatic and economic openings.
of how they had used geopolitical foresight when planning whether to
Yet Iran’s conduct in the regional arena continues to raise concern, and
enter new markets, or to better understand the dynamics of the countries
the potential for escalation among the various players in the Middle East
in which they operated.
is high. Participants discussed how much will depend on the implementa-
In the first panel, IISS experts analysed the changing dynamics of
tion of the deal, Iran’s internal dynamics, the role of external players in
power in three strategically crucial regions – the Asia-Pacific, the Gulf and
both reassuring and restraining their regional allies and on the calculations
wider Middle East, and Russia/Europe – providing their own assessments
of local actors in Iran’s neighbouring states, including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon
on the drivers, direction and cross-linkages of three regional ‘cold’ wars.
and Yemen.
The second panel looked at the changing nature of conflict, from the use of proxies to the use of sanctions and other economic tools to pursue geopolitical goals – the latter being a clear example of where inter-state rivalry can affect commerce and investments. Watch both panel discussions here.
Members’ Launch of the Armed Conflict Survey
The UK and EU – Making the Most of an Awkward Partnership Speaking at Arundel House on 15 July, the Lord Garel-Jones explained why recent developments in the UK’s ‘awkward’ partnership with the EU might be cause for cautious optimism. Offering some background on the relationship, Lord Garel-Jones explained that when the UK joined the EU’s predecessor, the European
The character of conflict is changing: fewer, but deadlier, wars around
Economic Community (ECC), in 1973, it was in a considerably stronger
the world, a shift in global jihadism as Islamists aim to control territory,
post-war position than its continental counterparts. This, he noted, has had
and the growing involvement of organised criminals in civil conflicts. The
lasting effects on the UK’s willingness to integrate.
Members’ Launch of the Armed Conflict Survey, held on 15 July at Arundel
Today, however – despite the somewhat contentious nature of the
House, brought together a panel of experts to explain these and other shifts.
UK–EU relationship – polls indicate a consistent loyalty towards Europe
There were some 70 active conflicts in 2001 when the IISS began
among the British population. Moreover, the Lord Garel-Jones explained,
recording conflict data in its Armed Conflict Database, the basis for much
a ‘no’ vote in the promised referendum on remaining in the EU would be
of the ACS, said Nigel Inkster, the book’s editor and IISS Director of
extremely risky, endangering 50% of all UK exports. He argued that if UK
Transnational Threats and Political Risk. In 2014, by contrast, there were
Prime Minister Cameron negotiates a promising proposal for restructured
42 wars. But, Inkster added, this decrease had been accompanied by an
EU membership, most parties (with the exception of UKIP) will be cam-
increase in conflict intensity.
paigning for a ‘yes’ in 2016.
Dr Alia Brahimi, Visiting Research Fellow at Oxford University and
Taking this positive outlook one step further, the Lord Garel-Jones sug-
ACS contributor, discussed the surge of the Islamic State of Iraq and
gested that the UK’s uniquely ‘awkward’ position may allow it to play
al-Sham (ISIS) across the Middle East in 2014; with its declaration of a
a beneficial role in facilitating the Union’s progression. He explained
caliphate across Iraqi and Syrian territory, the group has clearly signalled
that many hoped the UK would help mediate between Brussels and the
a move towards state-building.
numerous anti-EU parties gaining momentum across Europe.
Brigadier Ben Barry predicted that the war against ISIS was going to
Concluding his presentation, the Lord Garel-Jones maintained that a
continue ‘for some time’. The group was benefitting from a large numbers
‘Brexit’ was unlikely, but acknowledged the lingering uncertainties sur-
of foreign fighters, with as many as 2,700 Westerners joining its ranks.
rounding the EU’s openness to progressive change.
Watch our experts speaking at the launch here
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SEPTEMBER 2015
Watch the event on the IISS website.
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
GEO-ECONOMICS
Manama Dialogue Ambassador Round Table Preparatory Meeting
MANAMA DIALOGUE
MIDDLE EAST
IISS–MIDDLE EAST
A New Era of GCC Geo-Economic Opportunity with China and India
Syrian forces clash with ISIS near Aleppo, Syria (Huseyin Nasir/Anadolu/Getty) Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi
On 9 September, the IISS-Middle East held a preparatory meeting ahead of the 11th IISS Manama Dialogue. The seminar brought together senior
On 27 July, the IISS-Middle East held a workshop entitled ‘A New Era
officials and diplomats from 35 nations and the Kingdom of Bahrain. It
of GCC Geo-Economic Opportunity with China and India’. Bringing
served as an opportunity to brief attendees on the organisation of the con-
together speakers from the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC), China and
ference and to explore the themes that will be examined in depth during
India, the workshop covered how the rise of India and China as global
the Manama Dialogue.
economic powers provides an opportunity for GCC economies to increase
Participants attended two consecutive sessions on the Middle East
their global investment outreach. Participants also discussed the chal-
after the Iran deal and the containment of ISIS, chaired by IISS-Middle
lenges that face investors seeking new opportunities in unfamiliar regions.
East Executive Director Sir John Jenkins and Senior Fellow for Regional Security Emile Hokayem.
Commenting on the event, IISS Director for Geo-Economics and Strategy Sanjaya Baru said, ‘China and India have longstanding relations
‘The topics covered are integral to the agenda and discussions of the
with GCC countries and trade is growing in this region. Looking forward,
sessions in this year’s Manama Dialogue’, said Sir John, adding that the
it is important to build upon the existing cooperation between GCC, China
issues are of ‘regional and global significance and concern, and this pre-
and India as well as address the challenges that are present.’
paratory meeting helps officials and IISS experts observe perspectives and
IISS-Middle East Managing Director Katadah Zaman added, ‘This
expectations related to issues of the hour, forecasting session tones that
workshop brought together a diverse group of international business
are widely anticipated.’
leaders, public sector representatives and geo-economics experts. The IISS-
The Manama Dialogue Regional Security Summit will open on 30
Middle East has been facilitating discussion between decision-makers,
October and will include an international official presence of the highest
policy analysts and business leaders in order to address issues relevant to
level.
the GCC economies.’
Read more about the upcoming Manama Dialogue here
Watch the full workshop here
EUROPEAN UNION
GREECE
EVENTS
Europe after the Greek debacle Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies and International Political Economy at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), discussed the impact of the Greek crisis on Europe as a whole at Arundel House on 22 July. The meeting occurred in the wake of the agreement between Greece and its European partners to avoid a potential default and fracturing of the eurozone. Jones argued that, unlike all previous EU crises, the situation in Greece has not been contained in a single policy sphere. Uniquely, he explained, the event has contaminated other areas of integration and has resulted in
People queue at a closed bank in Athens, Greece, July 2015 (dimitris_k/Shutterstock)
the isolation of member states. The response of European institutions and member states to the crisis was predictable, Jones suggested, and reflected
sustainability; and to communicate a new vision in a clear, compelling way
their own interests in a manner that was likely to be counterproductive.
in order to gain the support of EU states and citizens.
Jones concluded that policymakers now faced a dual challenge: to think about the European project differently, in order to enhance resilience and
IISS NEWS
Listen to the event, chaired by IISS Director of Editorial Nicholas Redman, here.
For details of how to contact the IISS >
SEPTEMBER 2015 | 11