IISS Manama Dialogue 2015 book by International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue The International Institute for Strategic Studies

© February 2016 The International Institute for Strategic Studies Director-General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman Editor Nicholas Redman Contributors Dana Allin; Nick Childs; Jessica Delaney; Mark Fitzpatrick; Bastian Giegerich;

James Hackett; Matthew Harries; Emile Hokayem Arabic Editor Yusuf Mubarak Editorial Dr Ayse Abdullah Editorial Research and Media James Howarth, Katharine Slowe Production and Design John Buck, Kelly Verity

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the institute.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute are international and its membership is drawn from over 90 countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation. The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate.

Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Chapter 1

Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Chapter 2

Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Chapter 3

Press coverage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Selected IISS publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Chapter 4

Social media . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

Contents

HRH Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander and First Deputy Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Foreword

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is delighted to release and distribute this summary report of the proceedings of the IISS Manama Dialogue 2015: 11th Regional Security Summit, held from 30 October–1 November 2015. This year’s conference marked the onset of the Dialogue’s second decade. It was attended by delegates from 49 countries, with a considerable NGO presence. The audiences comprised ministers, top officials, diplomats, political leaders and military and intelligence chiefs. Around the same time, Iran signed the P5+1 nuclear deal. The Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, continued to spread terror in and around its territories in Iraq and Syria, with the latter entering its fourth year of civil war. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia led a coalition to battle the Houthis in Yemen. President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi of Egypt delivered the keynote speech, in which he summed up the circumstances his country has undergone within the larger context of change that swept the Middle East. These factors immensely enriched discussions in the sessions that followed. Discussions began by addressing the Middle East’s future while accounting for extremism, stability needs and development. Long-term US allies questioned possible changes in Foreword

its regional security policy. Representatives of regional Arab states expressed their views towards post-nuclear-deal Iran. Audiences addressed the challenges of extremism, as well as managing conflict spillover into neighbouring nations. Particular emphasis was given to several topics. These included the future of Yemen in and beyond the context of war; the Gulf states’ defensive measures with regard to the support and reaction of external powers; restoring stability to weak states shaken by conflict; and the role of political Islamism in fuelling extremist agendas and the countermeasures. The critical regional climate was analysed in quality research by IISS experts. The Middle East chapter of the 2015 Strategic Survey was released during the event, providing a thorough overview of the year’s most important developments. The Gulf and wider Middle East continue to witness serious developments. To review and highlight the challenges posed by political and military conflicts, the IISS Manama Dialogue will remain the ideal and only platform – proven by time – to bring insight through research to decision-makers in the region and beyond. To the Kingdom of Bahrain and its Foreign Ministry for their gracious and continued support, and to all government and non-government participants for their active participation, our gratitude remains profound. Sir John Jenkins, KCMG LVO Executive Director, IISS-Middle East

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue

CHAPTER 1

Agenda

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, President of the Arab Republic of Egypt;

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Agenda

Friday 30 October 2015 All day

Bilateral meetings between ministers and officials

19:00 – 20:00 SKY NEWS ARABIA OPENING TELEVISED PANEL - Al Ghazal I

EXTREMISM, STABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: THE FUTURE OF THE MIDDLE EAST Chair: Fadila Souissi

Presenter, Sky News Arabia

Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani

Secretary General, Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf

Riyadh Yaseen

Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen

Dr Taïeb Baccouche

Minister of Foreign Affairs, Tunisia

Helen Clark

Administrator, UN Development Programme

20:00 – 21:00 OPENING RECEPTION – Grand Foyer 21:00 – 23:00 OPENING DINNER – Al Noor Ballroom Hosted by: HRH Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander and First Deputy Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain

Opening remarks: Dr John Chipman

Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Keynote Speech: Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi President of the Arab Republic of Egypt

Agenda

Saturday 31 October 2015 Unless otherwise stated all Plenary Sessions chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS 09:00 – 10:15 FIRST PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor Ballroom

US POLICY AND REGIONAL SECURITY Sh Khaled bin Ahmed Al Khalifa Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

Antony Blinken

Deputy Secretary of State, US

10:15 – 10:45 Break 10:45 – 12:00 SECOND PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor Ballroom

THE REGION AFTER THE NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS Adel Al Jubeir

Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia

Dr Nabil El Araby

Secretary General, League of Arab States

12:00 – 12:15 Break 12:15 – 13:45 THIRD PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor Ballroom

THE CHALLENGES OF EXTREMISM

Chair: Sir John Jenkins

Executive Director, IISS-Middle East

Philip Hammond

Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

Salahuddin Rabbani

Minister of Foreign Affairs, Afghanistan

Dr Khaled Khoja

President, National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces

13:45 – 16:00 PRIVATE LUNCH FOR DELEGATION LEADERS Trader Vic’s Restaurant

LUNCH FOR ALL OTHER DELEGATES Villa Gazebo, Ritz Carlton

16:00 – 17:15 FOURTH PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor Ballroom

CONFLICTS AND COALITIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST Dr Ursula von der Leyen

Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

Khaled Al Obeidi

Minister of Defence, Iraq

19:30 – 21:00 RECEPTION AND DINNER – Villa Gazebo 10

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Sunday 1 November 2015 09:30 – 11:00 SPECIAL SESSIONS – Al Ghazal Ballrooms Group I:

The future of Yemen – Al Ghazal III Chair: Professor Toby Dodge

Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS

Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani

Secretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

Riyadh Yaseen

Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen

Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed

Special Adviser to the Secretary General for Yemen, UN

Sir Alan Duncan

Special Envoy to Yemen and Special Envoy to Oman, UK

Group II:

GCC Defence Posture and External Powers – Al Ghazal I Chair: General The Lord Richard of Herstmonceux

Senior Adviser for the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, IISS; former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK

Sh Thamer Al Sabah

President, National Security Bureau, Kuwait

General Lloyd James Austin III

Commander, US Central Command

HRH Prince Sultan bin Khaled Al Faisal President, Al Joshan Security Services

General Richard Barrons

Commander, Joint Forces Command, Ministry of Defence, UK

Stablising Weak States – Al Ghazal II Group III:

Chair: Dr Nicholas Redman

Director of Editorial, IISS

Dr Abdullah Al Matouq

Adviser, Al Diwan Al Amiri, Kuwait; Humanitarian Envoy of the Secretary General, UN

Christian Berger

Director and Deputy Managing Director for Middle East and North Africa, European External Action Service

Farhat Bengdara

Special Adviser to the Prime Minister, Libya

Emile Hokayem

Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS

Agenda

The Role of Political Islamism – Al Ghazal C Group IV:

Chair: Sir John Jenkins

Executive Director, IISS-Middle East

Hamadi Jebali

Former Prime Minster, Tunisia

Nabil Fahmy

Dean, School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo; former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt

Dr Nelly Lahoud

Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, IISS (Designate)

11:00 – 11:30 Break 11:30 – 13:00 FIFTH PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor Ballroom

MANAGING CONFLICT SPILL-OVER Nohad Machnouk

Minister of the Interior and Municipalities, Lebanon

Crispin Blunt

Chairman, Foreign Affairs Select Committee, House of Commons, UK

13:00 – 14:30 FAREWELL LUNCH FOR ALL DELEGATES – Villa Gazebo

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue

CHAPTER 2

Executive summary

Antony Blinken, Deputy Secretary of State, US

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Executive summary

The 2015 IISS Manama Dialogue, in common with the 2013 and 2014 Dialogues, opened with a panel debate moderated and televised by Sky News Arabia. The 2015 theme was â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Extremism, Stability, and Development: the future of the Middle Eastâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;. It brought together some familiar regional themes concerning the causes of the extremism and instability prevalent across the Middle East, but also explored the possibilities and challenges of a new, more holistic, approach to tackling them. The three Arab participants brought their different perspectives from across the region, while the former New Zealand Prime Minister, Helen Clark, now the Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), explored both the opportunities and potential problems arising from a developmental approach to dealing with the crises across the Middle East. The debate opened with the question of how to tackle extremism more effectively, considering that much effort has already been expended, seemingly with little to show for it. The Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, insisted that what is happening does not reflect the will of the people of the region. He introduced Executive summary

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 Opening Televised Panel (l–r): Riyadh Yaseen, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen; Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf; Helen Clark, Administrator, UN Development Programme; Dr Taïeb Baccouche, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Tunisia; and Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia

what was to become a broad theme in the discussion, that intervention from outside – and in particular the 2003 invasion of Iraq and its aftermath – had created a vacuum in which extremism had developed. Dr Al Zayani insisted that the persistence of the Israeli–Palestinian problem remained a key driver of extremism and had to be addressed. He also argued that extremism is not just a problem of Muslim youth contained within the region, but is now present across all regions. For the Foreign Minister of Yemen, Riyadh Yaseen, the current problems in his country stem from a former head of state, an internal rebellion, and the involvement of an external power, Iran. He also argued that extremism now has taken on a different form from previous years, and compared to the challenges posed by al-Qaeda and Hizbullah, with new groups wanting to become major players. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tunisia, Dr Taïeb Baccouche, focused on the intervention in Libya as the catalyst for the problems in Tunisia’s neighbourhood, and the collapse of a central authority there. Dr Baccouche argued that new institutions need to be fostered quickly in Libya and elsewhere, or there will be growing extremist alliances through Africa involving groups

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

such as Boko Haram and al-Shabaab, with repercussions throughout the region and in Europe. Clark addressed the role that development can play in combating these challenges. She argued that extremism in the form of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham is a twenty-first century phenomenon, drawing on technology to groom and

(lâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;r): Riyadh Yaseen, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen; and Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf

recruit jihadists online; those seeking to counter the threat have not yet matched this level of sophistication. She underscored the relevance of a sustainable development agenda, as inextricably linked with a peace agenda, and essential for the region with its burgeoning youth demographic. Clark stressed the importance of education but cautioned that it was equally important to ensure that a good education will lead to good job opportunities, otherwise it would become a source of frustration. Turning to the Iran nuclear deal, Dr Al Zayani said that he hoped that the unfreezing of Iranian assets would lead to greater prosperity for the Iranian people, rather than increased meddling by Iran in the affairs of other states. Mr Yaseen contrasted Iranâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s intervention in Yemen, which he said had had no positive effect, with that of the GCC, which he welcomed. Executive summary

(l–r): Helen Clark, Administrator, UN Development Programme; and Dr Taïeb Baccouche, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Tunisia

Clark, taking up the theme of stabilising Yemen, said that the UNDP is already working on a long-term post-crisis needs assessment which should involve not just rebuilding key physical infrastructure, but also society. Baccouche rejected the notion that Tunisia exports extremism and defended his government’s policy response to the threat of extremism, including the temporary closure of mosques, which he said had been taken over by militias. He acknowledged that this was controversial. Additional measures included religious education and monitoring of the internet, as well as efforts to improve the economy. Addressing the problem of extremism across the Maghreb, he made an implicit appeal for assistance by noting that technical capabilities were needed to properly control borders, but argued that the heart of the problem was in Libya, not Tunisia. In response to questions from the audience, Dr Al Zayani defended differing GCC approaches to counterterrorism, and highlighted the initiative of the late King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in 2005 to create an international centre to combat terrorism with US$110 million in funding. One intervention

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

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 from the audience called on the Gulf Arab leaders to be more open to accepting constructive criticism and a freer press. But the GCC Secretary General insisted that Gulf Arab leaders are

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

very accessible and that the media should raise its standards of accuracy.

Keynote Speech The President of the Arab Republic of Egypt, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, delivered the Keynote Address of the eleventh IISS Manama Dialogue. Focusing on the threats of terrorism and extremism, Al-Sisi warned that Middle Eastern states and the regional order were both at risk. He stressed that Arab nation-states are endangered by ‘foreign militias and organisations’ that challenge the foundations of modern governance and authority. He bemoaned the weakening or collapse of the rule of law in several Arab countries and the emergence of ‘sectarian, religious, local and other conflicts’. As a result, individuals and groups are resorting to narrow identities instead of seeking the protection of the state. In particular, Al-Sisi denounced the manipulation of sectarianism by groups with specific political agendas that ran counter to Executive summary

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 Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, President of the Arab Republic of Egypt

the cohesion of Arab societies and the authority of the state. This, he argued, has had a detrimental impact on the ‘role and prestige’ of the state. Al-Sisi then condemned the hijacking of Arab uprisings by ‘certain currents employing religion for their own political purposes’, a clear reference to the Muslim Brotherhood. He lamented that ‘some believed that these currents were politically moderate and able to contain the aspirations of their people and able to contain and channel the forces of extremism and terrorism’. Al-Sisi claimed that [Islamist movements] ‘did not understand the history of Arab societies nor did [they] strive to achieve the aims of their revolutions’. These movements sought to monopolise politics and parted with the historical moderation of Arab societies, and quickly came closer to more extremist organisations. He also regretted that some outside ‘parties’ betted on their success, putting at risk Arab national security. The state response to these challenges, Al-Sisi argued, should range beyond military confrontation and security arrangements: it is necessary to address the economic and social aspirations of citizens. He argued that a poor

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

socio-economic situation adversely affects a population’s notion of the state and blurs the difference between state and government. ‘National security in the Arab world is so threatened that it now requires – demands – the protection of what remains of the states and their institutions, and the renewal of Arab citizens’ faith in the ability to live together in a state that is cognisant of their rights and has the ability to protect them,’ Al-Sisi emphasised. Regionally, Al-Sisi reasserted Egypt’s commitment to the establishment of a Palestinian state within the June 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as capital. This, he said, would undercut the appeal of extremism. He also reaffirmed Egypt’s support for UN efforts to settle the Libyan crisis through the establishment of a national unity government that recognises the results of previous elections. Regarding the Syrian conflict, Al-Sisi reiterated Egypt’s support for UN resolution efforts, and called for a political settlement that involved regional and international powers. He stressed the importance of pursuing the fight against terrorist groups in Syria. He noted Egypt’s efforts to create a unified vision among Syrian opposition forces, notably by hosting conferences and encouraging the adoption of a road map toward a negotiated political solution, without external interference. A Syrian settlement must be inclusive and produce a healthy relationship between the state and its citizens, he said. The president added that Egypt also supported the efforts of its Gulf allies to aid the government of Yemen against what he described as ‘the forces of terrorism and extremism.’ It is important, he said, to preserve the country’s cohesion and integrity. Al-Sisi concluded by emphasising Egypt’s readiness to contribute to the stability and prosperity of the region. He noted Egypt’s attachment to the principle of noninterference in the domestic affairs of sovereign states and welcomed international and regional cooperation based on this principle. Executive summary

First Plenary Session: US Policy and Regional Security Deputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken led off the first plenary session, ‘US Policy and Regional Security,’ with a defence of US policy as the art of the possible. He derided the ‘now fashionable’ argument ‘that the United States is disengaged from the Middle East’. The challenges in the region ‘defy silver-bullet solutions’, he said, but in a ‘broader definition of engagement’, using ‘all sources of American power’, including military power, the American commitment remains strong. To be sure, he added, the Obama administration still insists on heeding the ‘lessons we’ve learned over a decade of sacrifice about the effectiveness and sustainability of indefinite and undefined military interventions that have vast unintended consequences’. Blinken defended the Iran nuclear deal, arguing that ‘after two years of negotiations, every single one of Iran’s pathways to a bomb is blocked … far into the future.’ But he also insisted that the administration harboured ‘no illusions’ about the agreement’s wider significance. The US remained focused on Iran’s support for terrorism and instigation of regional instability, and would meet those challenges with intensive security cooperation, including the linking up of missile-defence systems on the Arabian Peninsula, special-operations training, bolstered cyber security and sales of advanced military equipment to most of the Gulf Arab states. Blinken coupled this security cooperation with an optimistic assessment of progress against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) by a coalition that ‘didn’t exist’ 14 months earlier. With the aid of more than 7,700 airstrikes, the coalition had forced ISIS ‘to change how it conducts military operations, impeded its command and control, confronted its propaganda machine, and deprived it of 30% of the territory in Iraq that it once held’. The deputy secretary spoke against the backdrop of Russia’s recent intervention in Syria. He suggested that 22

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

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 the ‘law of unintended consequences’ might recoil against

First Plenary Session

Moscow: the intervention had ‘increased Russia’s leverage over Assad’, but it would also ‘increase the conflict’s leverage over Russia’. In Blinken’s optimistic interpretation, this would increase the Russian interest in a political solution, and the US was ready to work with Russia on common interests, including preserving Syrian unity and defeating ISIS. But the US would still insist on a ‘political transition that leads to [Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s] departure’. Bahrain’s Foreign Minister, Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, in his address rejected the notion that the fight against ISIS should take precedence over a solution to the Syrian civil war ‘as outlined in the Geneva I Peace Conference’. The extremist group, he added, was a symptom not a cause of the Syrian crisis. ‘There are those who will say that we must defeat Daesh [ISIS] first, before any of this can take place, but Daesh can only be defeated by a unified Syrian front against it.’ The foreign minister insisted that ISIS was ‘not the only terrorist threat we face in the region’, and pointed to Iran’s continued support for terrorist groups including Hizbullah. Executive summary

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 Sh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

In Bahrain, he said, Iran had ‘conducted smuggling operations to bring in explosives and weapons, including C4 Claymore mines and AK-47 assault rifles’. GCC states were ready to improve relations with Iran, but it would be difficult ‘when Iranian officials publicly boast about having captured four Arab capitals’. Just as Iran’s nuclear program was contained and ‘hopefully pacified’ by international action, there was a need for international unity and vigilance against the problems ‘caused by Iran’s actions in the region’. In that regard, he defended the GCC intervention in Yemen to prevent ‘an extremist proxy movement with ties to Iran and Hizbullah’ from taking power. Sheikh Khalid concluded by warning that recent violence in Jerusalem had the potential to ‘anger almost a third of the world’s population,’ and called on the Israeli government to live up to the agreement with Jordan on jurisdiction of the Al-Aqsa Mosque. In the Q&A session that followed, Dr Albadr Al Shateri asked Sheikh Khalid whether he believed the nuclear deal had ‘emboldened’ Iran, and he challenged Deputy Secretary Blinken on whether the US, even if it remained focused on

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

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 ‘strategic areas like the Gulf’, was in fact disengaging from the quest for a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian

Antony Blinken, Deputy Secretary of State, US

conflict. Sheikh Khalid said that, so far, he had not perceived any change in Iran’s behaviour in the region since the deal was announced. Blinken responded that cooperation between the US and Gulf Arab countries did embody ‘a clear vision’ of joint work to counter Iranian threats. He likewise insisted the US was fully committed to supporting a settlement of the Israel–Palestine conflict but noted that ‘we cannot want peace more than the parties themselves’. Blinken’s assessment of Russian staying power and future conduct was also questioned pointedly by Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS, and Bloomberg columnist Josh Rogin. Blinken responded that Assad ‘cannot win and take back his country’, and so Russia will come to understand that there is no military solution to keeping him in power. He also noted, in response to comments suggesting that US military action against ISIS had been ineffective, that the group’s forward momentum in Iraq had been halted and that it controlled 30% less territory than a year ago. Executive summary

Second Plenary Session: The Region after the Nuclear Negotiations Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Adel Al Jubeir, opened the second session on ‘The Region after the Nuclear Negotiations’ by welcoming the accord as a means of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear capability. Yet the jury is out on whether the deal will have a positive impact by integrating Iran with the region. It is Iran’s choice whether to use for productive or destructive purposes the funds freed up by the lifting of sanctions, he said. Jubeir noted the remaining challenges associated with Syria, Iraq, Yemen and terrorism. He outlined each but, ‘as an optimist’, also described the opportunities presented by the region’s economic development and investment, youth and technology. On Syria, he said the just-concluded ninehour meeting in Vienna, which included Iran for the first time, reached agreement on a number of issues: the importance of maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity and unity, the need for all ethnic and religious groups and minorities to enjoy protection and rights, and new elections based on the Geneva I principles. The two fundamental issues on which the parties remained at odds concerned the timing of the departure of Assad and the timing and means of the withdrawal of foreign – particularly Iranian – forces. Regarding Yemen, Jubeir spoke positively about forces supporting the legitimate government having reclaimed most of the country and freed up ports for humanitarian assistance. Dr Nabil El Araby, Secretary General of the Arab League, regretted that the Iran nuclear deal did not cover the whole Middle East and address Israel’s nuclear programme. Nor did the deal address any aspect of Iran’s intervention in Syria. Expanding on the Palestine issue, El Araby characterised the issue as a legal question of one party – Israel – needing to fulfill its obligations. He urged the international community to take responsibility for ending the conflict. Both in Palestine and in Syria, the Security Council has abjured its responsibility due 26

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 to the veto system. El Araby recommended that the entire collective-security system of the UN be reviewed. Dr Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Gulf Research

Adel Al Jubeir, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia

Center, asked about the preferred timing for Assad’s departure. Ideally, this afternoon, Jubeir replied. The Saudis hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin used Assad’s visit to Moscow to persuade him it is time to accept a political transition. Answering another question, Jubeir described the Vienna talks as productive because all issues were put on the table and there were no holds barred. Frank Gardner, the BBC Security Correspondent, asked El Araby if he regretted the Arab League’s request in 2011 for international military intervention in Libya. ‘No’ was the answer, because of the importance of helping Libya at the time. The mistake was the international community’s subsequent failure to follow up by helping build institutions and collect arms. In response to a question from Faisal Abbas, Editor-in-Chief of the English service of Al Arabiya News, El Araby said the call of the Arab League last March to establish a joint Arab military force was very important, and that some matters still needed to be discussed before the force could be declared ready. Executive summary

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 Dr Nabil El Araby, Secretary General, League of Arab States

In a second round of the Q&A, Raghida Dergham, Executive Chairman of the Beirut Institute and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent of Al Hayat, asked about the muted 18–24-month timing of a political-transition period for Syria. Jubeir said the thinking is that an interim governing council could be in place in four to six months but that holding an election in Syria might take 18 months. Meanwhile, Assad should leave at the beginning of this process. Responding to questions about the US commitment to the Gulf region, Jubeir painted a positive picture: the number of US troops deployed there is almost at a record high and the decisions reached between the US and GCC states at Camp David with regard to intelligence sharing, cyber security, ballistic-missile defence and maritime patrols are all being implemented via ongoing working groups. He said America’s commitment to the security of Gulf countries is at an all-time high and that the ‘historic and strategic’ relationship in all areas has gone from strength to strength. The GCC states were regularly briefed about the nuclear negotiations by senior US officials. And Saudi Arabia has decided to open an embassy in Baghad and a consulate in Erbil.

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 Third Plenary Session: The Challenges of Extremism The third plenary session focused on ‘The Challenges of Extremism’ in the region. Philip Hammond, the United Kingdom’s Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth

Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

Affairs, argued that the struggle against extremist Islamist terrorism was existential in the Gulf region, but affected the UK as well. Islamist extremism, the Secretary of State suggested, had deep roots and a wide reach because it was based on a corrupt interpretation of religion. The extreme doctrine espoused by ISIS sought to destroy nation states and replace them with its so-called caliphate, Hammond said. It was necessary, he argued, to defeat the group both militarily and ideologically, if a lasting victory was to be secured. Thereafter Hammond dwelt on UK plans to tackle extremism at home, through an approach based on four strands: countering the ideology of extremism, building social cohesion, supporting moderate mainstream voices and disrupting the extremists wherever they seek to operate. He conceded that the UK had pursued well-intended policies in the past that might inadvertently have nurtured the threat that now needed to be confronted. Executive summary

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 Salahuddin Rabbani, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Afghanistan

Salahuddin Rabbani, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, reminded the audience of his country’s long struggle against extremism. Now ISIS was trying to expand its base in the country. A network of terrorist organisations that included al-Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement also sought to destabilise Afghanistan. The country’s armed forces, he noted, still lack critical enablers and remain in need of international support. Rabbani argued it was of critical importance to strengthen efforts to counter extremist narratives. In Afghanistan, the government was open to peace talks with armed opponents, provided they were ready to renounce violence. He emphasised that, in light of the regional and global dimensions of Afghanistan’s fight against extremism, it was vital that the international community stayed the course. Otherwise the hard-earned gains of recent years could be lost. Dr Khaled Khoja, President of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, insisted that the principal cause of extremism in Syria was the government’s heavy military response to demands for change. The Syrian

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 regime, Khoja argued, undertook steps to attract or at least enable extremists in Syria to bolster its narrative that the government was fighting terrorism rather than a legitimate uprising. As a result of the fighting, Syrian national identity

Dr Khaled Khoja, President, National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces

had been destroyed, with the country divided along ethnic and sectarian lines. Khoja stated that the failure of the international community to protect civilians in Syria amounted to a regional and global failure. A new national project to unite the country is needed, he argued, and the opposition must fight extremism, protect civilians, establish basic governance and deliver rudimentary services. In Khoja’s view, Iranian and Russian meddling in the crisis made this even more difficult to achieve. In the ensuing debate, Khoja suggested that Ba’ath party affiliates were actively involved in ISIS. He reminded the audience of the importance of building grassroots support to create a new future for Syria. Kwon Hee-seog, DirectorGeneral, African and Middle Eastern Affairs Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea, focused his question on Afghanistan and enquired about the possibility of involving elders in counter-extremism policies. Rabbani Executive summary

responded that jirgas were an important tool for addressing extremism and that Afghans could draw on their country’s heritage of tolerance. Many questions were addressed to Hammond, and regarded the UK’s counter-extremism strategy. Walid Abukhaled, Chief Executive for Saudi Arabia, Northrop Grumman Corporation, asked whether the UK risked giving the impression that it was fighting Islam. Hammond said there was a clear distinction between Islam and extremism – but also that policymakers could not effectively tackle the latter if the failed to acknowledge the link to Islam and the religious authority that extremists claimed for themselves. He went on to stress the importance of disrupting the flow of money and fighters from the UK to Syria and on developing convincing counternarratives that would combat ISIS ideologically. Dr Hisham Hellyer, Non-Resident Fellow at the Brookings Institute, asked whether the UK strategy’s provisions for revoking the British citizenship of extremists might undermine societal cohesion. Hammond responded that the provision applied to dual nationals who attacked the values which British society was based on; it was an important tool for the government, he insisted.

Fourth Plenary Session: Conflicts and Coalitions in the Middle East The fourth plenary, entitled ‘Conflicts and Coalitions in the Middle East’, distilled the 2015 Dialogue’s prevailing mood, urging collective action at the same time as acknowledging the difficulties of choosing both partners and targets. The session’s keynote speakers were drawn from a country playing host to some of the region’s most virulent conflicts, and another dragged headlong into a common cause with it by the side effects of Middle East turmoil. The latter, Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence of Germany, put the predicament bluntly: ‘we have too many violent conflicts, and we have far too few coalitions to stop or control 32

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 them … The regional order seems to be collapsing.’ Yet, as she and others pointed out, there is much to unite both regional states as a group and extra-regional parties with those

Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

in the Middle East. Europe, said Von der Leyen, shares three core interests with the states of the Middle East: fighting terrorism; reinstating order, economic development and stability; and providing the people of the region with a viable future. Yet shared interests have not easily led to common action, however, and there are dangers in conflating similar but separate problems. Khaled Al Obeidi, Minister of Defence of Iraq, warned against defining the problems to be solved in Iraq and Syria in the same way, pointing to the Iraqi constitution, parliamentary system and elected national government as differentiating political characteristics. Opening the debate, Von der Leyen insisted that for Europe indifference to the Syria conflict was not an option, saying Europeans ‘are not simply spectators’. Referring to the wave of refugees entering Europe, she stated emphatically that Germany, as a matter of its constitutional identity, would Executive summary

not ‘slam the door’. Yet, as South Korean Ambassador for National Security Affairs Lee Chung Min noted, the political task of maintaining a consensus for fighting ISIS while accepting the costs of accepting refugees is not an easy one. Von der Leyen stressed the need for a collective approach from the European Union, an institution created to solve problems that member states could not solve individually. ‘Solidarity’, said Von der Leyen, ‘means that, in tough times, we share burdens’. She identified a quid pro quo: European states receive people fleeing for their lives, and invest in their education and integration; those people contribute to their country of refuge, and one day, after the return of peace, again contribute to their country of origin. The complexities of the military response to ISIS preoccupied the keynote speakers and many participants from the floor. Al Obeidi’s prescription was clear: military action against ISIS would have to come first, only then to be followed by non-military efforts. But questioners were unwilling to conceive of military action as inherently apolitical. The IISS’s Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, and Bloomberg’s Josh Rogin both pressed the minister on the question of Iranian influence: does the Iraqi government control Iranian-backed popular militias, or is it the other way around? Al Obeidi answered by distinguishing between the government-controlled Popular Mobilisation Forces, an institution answering to the Iraqi prime minister, with an independent budget, working often in combination with the regular Iraqi armed forces – and other ‘illegal’ armed militias. The regular Iraqi armed forces are themselves under considerable strain. Al Obeidi noted that they had suffered a significant setback in the summer of 2014 under the advance of ISIS, and were not helped by the financial pressure of a collapse in the price of oil. Iraq’s military needs help, he declared, from regional and international partners. Nor will it be easy, as Al Obeidi conceded in response to a 34

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 question from IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East Toby Dodge, to push forward the development of the

Khaled Al Obeidi, Minister of Defence, Iraq

Iraqi National Guard. For Von der Leyen, the Middle East today demands ‘a new partnership of dedication’: joint political will, an understanding of whom to fight and whom to protect, and an effort to foster development. The difficulties in such an approach are well known; one, as a number of participants pointed out, is the challenge of addressing the regional deficit of inclusive governance. But the Manama Dialogue was presented by Al Obeidi with a specific call to action: a defence dialogue between the Gulf’s armies and national institutions, with the aim of building a common strategy. This would range from information exchange and joint exercises to the theatre of operations itself; its outputs could include strategies for the administration of borders and shared waters, a common approach to displaced persons and refugees, and post-conflict reconstruction. ‘An anti-terrorism agreement among the Gulf’s coastal states’, Al Obeidi concluded, ‘would be a fundamental pillar of defensive arrangements for the entire Middle East’. Executive summary

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 (l–r): Nohad Machnouk, Minister of the Interior and Municipalities, Lebanon; Dr John Chipman, DirectorGeneral and Chief Executive, IISS; and Crispin Blunt, Chairman, Foreign Affairs Select Committee, House of Commons, UK

Fifth Plenary Session: Managing Conflict Spillover Nohad Machnouk, Minister of the Interior and Municipalities of Lebanon — a state that has suffered greatly as a result of the Syrian conflict — spoke first in the fifth plenary session, titled ‘Managing Conflict Spillover’. He surveyed the local, regional and international conflicts that beset Lebanon: the Arab–Israeli struggle; Iranian regional meddling; and the threat of ‘extremist takfiri’ groups such as ISIS. Previously, he said, extremist groups operated in secret. Today, they produce oil, mint coins and control territory. Machnouk expressed the hope that, as other powers had abandoned Syria, Russia would be able to help craft a political settlement, but he acknowledged that the chances were slim. Lebanon’s government, he said, had succeeded in limiting the impact of the Syrian conflict on Lebanese territory by achieving national solidarity and greater coordination among security agencies, and by promoting moderation in political and religious discourse. The government has extended its authority across national territory, ending the effects of war in northern Lebanon, Machnouk said. However, efforts to extend this into territory controlled by Hizbullah have been frustrated.

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In Lebanon today, there is one refugee for every three citizens, the minister noted, and the country has welcomed and incorporated them despite the huge challenges. He noted, however, that Hizbullah’s involvement in the Syrian war had provoked a reaction in Lebanon in support of the Syrian revolution, and with it the growth of extremist cells in Lebanon. Two themes permeated the minister’s address; the first was moderation. He noted that Lebanon sorely needed a head of state after almost two years without one, and called on all those present to desist from pressing for a change in the constitutional arrangement that reserves the presidency for a Christian — in times of extremism in the Arab world, this dispensation is more necessary than ever, he argued. Moderation is also integral to more effective management of the region’s political, security and economic problems, according to Machnouk. He noted that it was the tribes of Iraq that defeated al-Qaeda, and that ISIS only took control of parts of the country after sectarian actors had marginalised them and divided society. The second theme was regional and international cooperation. Arab states must not retreat into unilateralism, but should rather create a solid strategic alliance. Operation Decisive Storm in Yemen is a good example of cooperation, and without it there would have been no progress in the conflict. Likewise, extra-regional states should focus on solving the Syrian conflict, he added, arguing that this was a better use of their resources than squabbling over how many refugees each European state might receive. Crispin Blunt, Chairman of the UK House of Commons’ Foreign Affairs Committee, began by noting that the session title did not do justice to the ‘death, destitution and displacement borne by the millions’ in the region. He noted the role of Britain and other external powers in laying the foundation for many contemporary conflicts in the region, and their imperfect response to the Arab spring, ‘which has turned to winter without a hint of summer or autumn in between’. Executive summary

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 Nohad Machnouk, Minister of the Interior and Municipalities, Lebanon

Blunt noted that America’s will to intervene in the region is limited, and that there is no superpower ready and willing to take up its burden. Thus the time has come, he argued, for regional powers – Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt – to come of age. These states must become a P4, to give regional problems the consistent attention that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council cannot. The rest of Blunt’s remarks focused on the principal form of conflict spillover: displacement. All refugees should have been accommodated in neighbouring countries, assisted properly by the whole international community, he said. The developed world failed to give Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon the support they were entitled to, and now it has suffered the consequences of inaction in the form of Europe’s refugee crisis. On that point too, Blunt felt serious errors had been made. The EU failed to show solidarity with its front-line, southern member states, who struggled without support. Thereafter, Germany’s ‘entirely decent human response’, opening its borders to refugees, encouraged millions more — not only from Syria, but many afflicted countries — to try their luck in Europe. The correct policy now, he said, was to take the

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 pressure off refugee camps in the region, by moving the most deserving people to Europe, but doing so in a way that did not encourage broader population movement. At the outset of

Crispin Blunt, Chairman, Foreign Affairs Select Committee, House of Commons, UK

the Syrian conflict, the focus should have been on giving people hope that they could return home in a reasonable space of time. If fragile and conflict-torn states lose their best and brightest people, they will have more difficulty in building institutions and economies that are resistant to conflict.

Special Session 1: The Future of Yemen The first special session considered ‘The Future of Yemen’ and the challenges of ending the civil war in the country. In keeping with other conflicts in the region, re-establishing stability in Yemen has security and economic implications beyond its border. This is in part the reason why the Saudi-led coalition intervened to support the faltering government of Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, which teetered on the brink of collapse in the face of an offensive by Houthi rebels and forces loyal to the former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. The coalition states have also been concerned by Iran’s provision of military support to the insurgents, which has included arms shipments. Executive summary

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(lâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;r): Professor Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS; and Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

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While the fighting in the Yemen involves the major regional powers, directly or indirectly, it should not be viewed primarily as a proxy war, nor indeed as a classic sectarian conflict, suggested some long-term observers. Rather, they argued, it ought to be viewed as a tribal power play. The Arab intervention force led by Saudi Arabia is pursuing a multi-faceted approach, it was argued. In parallel to the military campaign, which has the ultimate aim of liberating territory under the control of the Houthis, there is also the intent to relaunch a political process. The hoped-for end of the conflict will also require a considerable reconstruction effort, with the north and the south of the country a particular focus. These areas have been central to the insurgency. A key element of any solution will be UN Security Council Resolution 2216, which the Houthis and other opposition leaders indicated they would accept. This paved the way for agreeing a further round of peace talks, the agenda, date and format of which were under discussion as the Manama Dialogue was taking place. To have any chance of success, some contend, the primary focus of all involved must shift from the military to the political arena. Full inclusivity is

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also a pre-requisite for the talks’ success, while the Houthis need to negotiate in good faith. Within the Hadi government there remains mistrust of the Houthis and Saleh. Given this, there is also a keen interest in rebuilding the military and the security institutions. UNSCR 2216 includes a provision for deploying observers or peace-keeping forces if this is deemed necessary.

(l–r): Riyadh Yaseen, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen; Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, Special Adviser to the Secretary General for Yemen, UN; and Sir Alan Duncan, Special Envoy to Yemen and Special Envoy to Oman, UK

One option, floated by some as potentially addressing the concerns of all involved parties, is the creation of a federal Yemen, based on six regions. This could provide a level of autonomy to those areas now at the heart of the insurgency.

Special Session 2: GCC Defence Posture and External Powers The second special session, titled ‘GCC Defence Posture and External Powers‘, was convened at a time when GCC member states were on active military operations in Yemen and over Syria. The session provided an opportunity to reflect on the current state and future trajectory of regional military cooperation, as well as the requirements of GCC defence forces and the role of external powers. Executive summary

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(l–r): General Richard Barrons, Commander, Joint Forces Command, Ministry of Defence, UK; and HRH Prince Sultan bin Khaled Al Faisal, President, Al Joshan Security Services

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The region faces significant security challenges from rising extremism, the presence of armed militias and Iran. Growing instability across the region has multiple causes, including the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq, security crises following the Arab Spring, rising sectarian strife, and inattention and incapacity on the part of the international community. The imperatives for cooperation were greater than they were before, it was argued. The history of GCC military cooperation was outlined, as was that of external powers’ military involvement in the region. Indeed, it was argued that the confluence of rising security threats, and a relative decline in international military attention had led regional states to take action themselves. These new activities involved increased military cooperation. Within the GCC, there was a convergence of interests that afforded an opportunity to strengthen the ties, including defence relationships, between nations. Yemen, one participant said, was a crucible for future cooperation. These operations would allow the region’s forces to consider areas requiring improvement. The new GCC Joint Military Command, agreed in late 2014, would

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build on the coordination and cooperation seen in the Peninsula Shield Force. Growing defence cooperation, through organisational changes and military operations, was leading GCC states to reconsider defence and military strategies. There was increasing security and intelligence cooperation, and states were looking to improve the efficiency of their defence forces by enhancing training at all levels, unifying command-and-control, and developing organisational and equipment inter-operability.

(l–r): General The Lord Richard of Herstmonceux, Senior Adviser for the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, IISS; former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK; Sh Thamer Al Sabah, President, National Security Bureau, Kuwait; and General Lloyd James Austin III, Commander, US Central Command

External powers could help in this process. With longstanding experience of working in coalitions, and through NATO, both the UK and US could bring this knowledge to bear in helping GCC states develop their joint-operational capability. Meanwhile, assistance, in the form of training and other support – or procurements – was designed to build capability and empower local forces, and could help boost the inter-operability of armed forces. Indeed, growing interoperability was already evident: on the first night of coalition air operations against ISIS over Syria, five Middle Eastern air forces took part, and four were able to use munitions. The significant political and military commitments in the region Executive summary

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(l–r) Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial, IISS; and Dr Abdullah Al Matouq, Adviser, Al Diwan Al Amiri, Kuwait; Humanitarian Envoy of the Secretary General, UN

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by outside powers showed that security in the region was important to them; indeed, for some, Gulf security was indistinguishable from their own security.

Special Session 3: Stabilising Weak States The third session, ‘Stabilising Weak States’, addressed a topic – state fragility, failure and weakness – that permeated nearly all discussions at the Dialogue. While state weakness and fragility is a global phenomenon, with no region unaffected, it is a particular problem in the Middle East. The cases of Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Libya stand out. Panellists agreed that there was a close relationship between the failings of the state and the incidence of conflict, which can become a vicious spiral as deprivation and insecurity fuel further violence. In Syria, 5.6m young people lack access to education. The Gadhafi regime in Libya was toppled without any plan for replacing it. International support was insufficient, and thereafter regional states pursued narrow agendas and interfered with the state-building process, preventing the authorities from developing the mechanisms to stabilise a tribal society. Militias filled the void, and the lack

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of economic opportunity has facilitated recruitment by armed groups. Development is the solution. A large part of the discussion focused on relief efforts. Bahrain coordinates the Arab response to Syriaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s humanitarian disaster and the EU is engaged with relief, development efforts and conflict-resolution initiatives that have gained little traction. Numerous proposals for improving policy responses were made, including sustained development efforts conducted alongside relief initiatives, to break the cycle of state

(lâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;r) Christian Berger, Director and Deputy Managing Director for Middle East and North Africa, European External Action Service; Farhat Bengdara, Special Adviser to the Prime Minister, Libya; and Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS

weakness, insecurity and conflict; better coordination between host governments and international agencies delivering aid and development; and a detailed, bottom-up understanding of the drivers of weakness and fragility. The session also considered political settlements in Libya and Syria. A common element was the need to recognise and accommodate centrifugal forces through decentralisation, federation or de facto partition. In Syria, the areas controlled by the Kurds, ISIS and the regime are to varying extents considered to be economically and political viable, and militarily defendable, although the positive prospects for each would lessen if allied support waned or the military threats to them increased. Executive summary

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(l–r): Sir John Jenkins, Executive Director, IISSMiddle East; and Hamadi Jebali, Former Prime Minister, Tunisia

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Special Session 4: The Role of Political Islamism The fourth session, ‘The Role of Political Islamism’, focused on two sources of tension: between the concepts of Islam as a faith versus Islam as political ideology, and between the modern nation state and the absolutist nature of political Islamism. Participants were divided in their definitions of ‘political Islamism’, and only agreed that there were myriad interpretations of it. But examples of parties whose political programme, were founded on Islamic teachings included the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and an-Nahda. These organisations had adapted their ideologies to the secular political process and contested elections. The concept of political Islamism had not been applied successfully to the governance of a nation state. It was suggested that this was because it allowed little room for pluralism and had failed to win the hearts of the population beyond its traditional support base. One panellist suggested that, rather than being preoccupied by questions of ideology, most individuals were instead focused on more parochial issues, such as money, their health and social services. It was not for the state to restrict each citizen’s right to pursue their faith.

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It was argued that one of the failings of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood was that it had considered the country to be part of an overarching Muslim Brotherhood movement, rather than regarding itself as part of the fabric of the Egyptian nation. If political Islamist parties were to have any success in government in the future, they needed to be more pragmatic in embracing pluralism; non-Islamist actors, meanwhile,

(l–r): Nabil Fahmy, Dean, School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo; former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt; and Dr Nelly Lahoud, Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, IISS (Designate)

needed to develop inclusive systems of government. The rise of ISIS and its establishment of a ‘caliphate’ added a further layer of complexity to debates about the relationship between the state and political Islamism. However, it was pointed out that jihadists regarded the political process as incompatible with their endeavours. Any adherent of their extremist ideology who attempted to form a political party could not consider themselves a true jihadist. The need to improve social conditions for the region’s young people was a common theme of the Dialogue, and the subject was raised once again in this session. Panellists agreed that economic and social change would have a positive effect – the imperative was to encourage critical thinking and to counter the appeal of absolutist ideology. Executive summary

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11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

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CHAPTER 3

Press coverage Selected IISS publications

Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

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Press coverage

New York Times 31 October 2015

Discordant Verdicts on US Forces in Syria: Too Much, or Too Little By Peter Baker and Eric Schmitt WASHINGTON – President Obama’s decision to send a small team of United States commandos into Syria as part of the broader war against the Islamic State has raised new questions about his military strategy, its legal foundation and the way it has been sold to the American public. After years in which Mr Obama rejected ‘boots on the ground’, the deployment of up to 50 Special Operations troops to northern Syria is a relatively

modest commitment. But coupled with the 3,500 troops now stationed next door in Iraq, it reflects continuing improvisation in a war that has bedeviled Mr Obama and tested the limits of American interests in the region. The administration made the decision after abandoning the Pentagon’s failed efforts to train its own rebel army to take on the Islamic State in Syria, and it underscored a shift toward reliance on Kurdish allies, the most effective forces working with the United States. In effect, the move is an experiment: can the small contingent of American military personnel make a difference in guiding local fighters? If so, officials made it clear they would consider sending more Americans. (A covert train-and-equip effort run by the CIA is still very much active.) The first test is likely to come in Raqqa, the Islamic State’s stronghold in Syria. American officials hope the commandos will help the Kurds and Syrian

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Arab allies put pressure on the Islamic State, which is also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh, by cutting off routes into the city and targeting leaders. Eventually, they would try to recapture the city outright. ‘Ultimately, Raqqa has to be retaken and returned to its citizens and to a decent way of life, which they’re not enjoying under the barbaric rule of ISIL now’, Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter told reporters during a refueling stop in Alaska on his way to Asia. But critics on both sides of the ideological spectrum said the president’s decision reflected a tactical shift rather than a comprehensive strategy. Republicans belittled it as a paltry move that would not change the dynamics on the ground, especially with Russia now actively involved in the war. Across the aisle, some Democrats expressed distress that Mr Obama was taking the United States deeper into a fratricidal conflict. Senator John McCain, the hawkish Arizona Republican who has long pressed for more assertive action in the Middle East, dismissed the deployment as insufficient. ‘Such grudging incrementalism is woefully inadequate to the scale of the challenge we face’, he said. Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the newly installed House speaker, saw it as just more piecemeal response. ‘This commitment of US forces must come with a coherent strategy to defeat ISIL,’ he said. ‘Otherwise, we are likely to see the same results in the region.’ The move drew support from a handful of leading Democrats but skepticism from others. The top Democrats on the

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House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees backed it. ‘This is a narrow, limited, advise-and-assist effort that will help to loosen ISIS’ grip on territory in Syria and support our partners on the ground’, said Representative Eliot L. Engel of New York, the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee. Liberal lawmakers bemoaned what they saw as a slide further into war. ‘Sending American Special Forces into Syria is a major shift in policy that puts the United States on a potentially dangerous downward slope into a civil war with no end in sight’, said Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut. Administration officials rejected that view. They said the deployment was in keeping with Mr Obama’s policy of working with local forces to counter the Islamic State and was not a broader intervention, even though Mr Obama continues to press for the resignation of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, through talks led by Secretary of State John Kerry. ‘It is not a decision to enter into Syria’s civil war’, Mr Kerry told reporters during a stop in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, after leaving Vienna, where he met with other diplomats to seek a cease-fire and political transition in Syria. ‘It is not an action or a choice focused on Assad. It focused exclusively on Daesh and on augmenting our ability to be able to more rapidly attack Daesh.’ The reviews from the region were mixed. At a security conference in Manama, Bahrain, on Saturday, senior Arab officials and analysts said the plan would fail to defeat the Islamic State or remove Mr Assad.

Iraq’s defense minister, Khaled alObeidi, greeted with caution Mr Obama’s instruction to advisers to consult Iraqi officials about establishing a Special Operations task force to help target Islamic State leaders there. ‘Any such operations would need to be coordinated with the Iraqi government’, Mr Obeidi said in a brief interview. And Adel al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister and a former ambassador to Washington, praised the deployment of Special Operations troops to Syria. ‘Anything that is done on the ground is going to be much more effective than anything from the air’, he said in an interview after his speech to the conference. ‘I think this is a big step.’ But Mr Jubeir also said the United States needed to widen its goal from simply countering the Islamic State to targeting Mr Assad, as well. ‘Any attempts to go after Daesh in Syria without dealing with the root cause, which is Bashar alAssad, are doomed to failure’, he said. Saying Mr Assad had become a magnet for extremists, Mr Jubeir added, ‘Ultimately, Daesh will be defeated when Assad is removed.’ Emile Hokayem, a Middle East analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which organized the security conference, said the latest American effort came up short. ‘It’s part of the administration’s gradual but still hesitant approach to the bigger issue’, he said. ‘Assad is still the main cause of the death and destruction in Syria.’ Antony J. Blinken, the deputy secretary of state, who is attending the conference, pushed back against the

skeptics, citing both increased military assistance to combat the Islamic State and the diplomatic initiative Mr Kerry is leading to remove Mr Assad. ‘We are intensifying our efforts on all fronts’, Mr Blinken told reporters. He added that deploying commandos to Syria and strengthening air power to support Syrian rebels in the northeast would help them ultimately prevail and, with other moderate rebel groups, have greater influence later in a political transition that would remove Mr Assad. In Washington, though, some lawmakers said the Obama administration was not being honest about the ultimate costs of the war, and about the fact that American troops are increasingly being drawn into combat even though the White House insists it is not a combat mission. Democrats also questioned the legal basis for the intervention and called on Congress to pass a new authorization for military action. Mr Obama has sent a draft of such an authorization, but Congress is deeply divided over it and has not taken it up. The administration argues that it can send forces into Syria under the authority of legislation passed by Congress in 2001, targeting Al Qaeda, after the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington. Unlike Iraq, Syria has not invited in American troops, but the administration argues that it can take action in Syria in defense of Iraq, an ally that has been attacked by Islamic State forces based in Syria. © 2015, New York Times Reprinted with permission

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Economist 31 October 2015

Iran Joins Talks in Vienna about the Syrian Civil War The main result was that none of the parties walked out IT COULD have been worse. That was more or less the read-out after talks on Syria in Vienna on October 30th between allies and foes of President Bashar alAssad including America, Saudi Arabia, Russia and, for the first time, Iran. No one walked out, even though Iran backs Mr Assad and Saudi Arabia is one of the main backers of anti-Assad rebel groups, as well as Iran’s chief rival in the region. At first glance the nine-point statement put out at the end looks good, too. It pledges to work for a ceasefire and commits the parties to an UN-led transition in which Syrians, including the diaspora, elect their leaders. The powers will meet again within two weeks’ time to discuss it further. Yet no party hid the fact that there was no agreement on the fate of Mr Assad, one of the main points of contention. Speaking at a security conference in Bahrain organised by IISS, a British think-tank, Adel al-Jubair, the Saudi foreign minister, restated the Saudi belief that peace could not be achieved as long as Mr Assad stayed in power: ‘He should leave this afternoon. The sooner the better.’ He also insisted that Iranian forces would have to be withdrawn as part of any agreement.

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If progress is not made, he said Saudi Arabia will step up support for ‘moderate’ rebels, including the delivery of more lethal weapons – though he did not spell out what those might be. Of late America had appeared to modify its position on Mr Assad by saying he could stay for six months rather than requiring that he step down before any transition begins. It sounded like a compromise had been made when reports circulated that Iran had agreed to a limitation of six months for Mr Assad. Yet Iran quickly contradicted the news, denying that it had agreed to any time-frame, stressing that only the Syrian people could decide – the line Iran and Russia have long stuck to. Iran and Russia would like to see early polls, despite Mr Assad’s having been ‘elected’ to a seven-year term in 2014. They are convinced that he would win, without any of the rigging or gerrymandering that tends to accompany Syrian ballots. Holding any election in war-torn Syria will be fraught with difficulty, of course. To be accepted as credible, the millions of Syrians who have fled the country would have to be persuaded to vote. Although all the powers, parties to Syria’s war and otherwise (with the potential exception of Russia) seem more united now in the desire to end the fourand-a-half-year conflict, it is apparent that that is not at any cost. The refugee crisis has worsened, both in the region and for those trekking to Europe, not least since Russia intervened. All are worried about Islamic State (IS). Yet both Russia and Iran do not like the idea of regime change, fearful of it

on their own turf. Russia wants to assert its role as a global power. Iran’s red line is maintaining a route to ship weapons to Hizbullah, its proxy in Lebanon. Despite its nuclear deal with America, Iran remains suspicious of the Great Satan. Many Iranian officials say America is only pretending to fight IS, pointing to the slow progress of the coalition, and instead prefers keeping them on hand as a tool with which to threaten the Islamic Republic. Having given up its nuclear card for now, Iran may be more rather than less obstinate on Syria. Meanwhile, on the same day, America revealed it was sending up to 50 specialforces troops into northern Syria to help with a planned offensive against Islamic State (IS) in their stronghold to the east. Russia criticised their deployment, arguing it will turn the Syrian conflict into a proxy war. America has upped its game since Russia waded into Syria in September. Earlier in October America said it had dropped supplies to rebels in the north and has emphasised that it will increase its support to the groups it backs. In any case, much of what ended up in the statement repeats points made in UN talks back in 2012. Since then the war has got far bloodier, with the death toll at over 250,000 and some 11m people displaced within and without the country’s borders. And as many Syrians have pointed out, neither the Syrian regime nor the fragmented opposition were invited to the talks. It will be a long time before the guns fall silent, but getting so many of the parties in one room might be a start. © 2015, Economist Reprinted with permission

Washington Post 31 October 2015

US Pledges Nearly $100 million to Support Syrian Opposition as AntiISIS Offensive Begins By John Davison BEIRUT – A newly formed US-backed Syrian rebel alliance launched an offensive against the Islamic State in the northeast province of Hasakah on Saturday, a day after the United States said it would send Special Operations forces to advise insurgents fighting the jihadists. It was the first declared operation by the Democratic Forces of Syria since the alliance of a US-backed Kurdish militia and several Syrian Arab rebel groups announced its formation last month. Fighting in Hasakah had begun after midnight, a spokesman for the alliance said. A group monitoring the war reported fighting and coalition airstrikes in the area. The campaign would ‘continue until all occupied areas in Hasakah are freed from Daesh’, a spokesman for the alliance’s general command said in the video, using an Arabic name for the Islamic State. He urged residents to stay away from militant-controlled areas of Hasakah. The US decision to station a force of up to 50 military advisers in Syria comes after it dropped ammunition to rebel groups in northern Syria several weeks

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ago. Washington’s strategy in Syria has shifted from trying to train fighters outside the country to supplying groups headed by US-vetted commanders. Meanwhile, the United States ramped up its support for the opposition on Saturday with a pledge of nearly $100 million in fresh aid. The new US funds will support local and provincial councils, civil society activists, emergency services and other needs on the ground inside Syria. The US promise of cash, which American officials say brings to nearly $500 million the amount pledged to the opposition since 2012, coincided with the completion of international talks to pursue a new peace effort involving Syria’s Iranian-backed government and opposition groups. World powers and regional rivals convened in Vienna to seek a solution to the 4 1/2-year-old conflict in Syria that has escalated since Russia intervened a month ago with an intense air campaign. The negotiations left open the thorny question of when Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad might leave power, and it was unclear whether he or disparate rebel groups fighting to topple him would sign on to any peace proposal. A new round of talks was expected to take place within two weeks. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the additional $100 million in US assistance on Saturday at the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain. Blinken suggested that Russia’s military intervention in Syria, although widely seen as a strong sign of support

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

for Assad, could end up incentivizing Moscow to work toward a political transition that removes him from power. ‘Russia cannot afford to sustain its military onslaught against everyone opposed to Assad’s brutal rule. The costs will mount every day in economic, political and security terms – but at best only to prevent Assad from losing,’ Blinken said. He predicted a ‘quagmire’ that draws Russia deeper into a conflict alongside Syria’s allies Iran and the Shiite militant group Hezbollah, and that alienates Sunni Muslims both in the region and in Russia itself. The decision to send US troops to Syria comes a month after Russia began launching airstrikes against insurgents in the country. Russia has come under criticism for airstrikes that seemed to be randomly targeting any opposition to the Assad regime. On Saturday, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 64 people, including 28 children, had been killed by Syrian army and Russian air raids in the northern province of Aleppo in the past 24 hours. The group said Syrian government forces backed by Russian air cover intensified bombardments against insurgents throughout the country. A Syrian member of parliament on Saturday called the US decision an ‘act of aggression’. ‘When America sends ground forces into Syrian territories without an agreement with the Syrian government it becomes an intervention and aggression’, Sharif Shehadeh told the Associated Press by telephone. ‘Will America

allow Russian ground forces to go into America without an agreement? I think the answer is no.’ Shehadeh said that the troops will have no effect on the ground but that Washington wants to say it is present in Syria. ‘What has happened to make America realize, after five years, that it should send between 30 and 50 military advisers?’ he said. © 2015, Washington Post Reprinted with permission

Telegraph 31 October 2015

Hammond: Britain ‘Must Back Syrian Opposition not Allied to Extremists’ British Foreign Secretary says there as many as 80,000 moderate rebels – although ‘not moderate in a Weybridge sense’ – who are essential to building a credible opposition By Richard Spencer There are between 60–80,000 ‘moderate rebels’ in Syria, Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, said on Saturday, even if they are ‘not moderate in a Weybridge sense’, rejecting claims the West had to choose between the Assad regime, Islamic State and Al-Qaeda. Mr Hammond was speaking after all the major international backers of both

the regime and the opposition in Syria met for the first time and agreed to isolate extremist groups. Western allies also warned Russia that by taking on rebels outside the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and backing the regime it risked becoming ‘drawn into the quagmire’. Tony Blinken, the American deputy secretary of state, said that might itself force Russia into negotiating a political transition that removed President Bashar al-Assad from power. ‘Russia cannot afford to sustain its military onslaught against everyone opposed to Assad’s brutal rule, Mr Blinken said, at the Manama Dialogue conference in Bahrain. ‘The costs will mount every day in economic, political, and security terms – but at best only to prevent Assad from losing.’ The talks in Vienna were the first to involve both Saudi Arabia, which has supported the rebels in Syria, and Iran, the most important military and political backer of the Assad regime up until the Russian intervention. The two Middle East countries are fierce rivals for regional influence, and their involvement has rapidly turned the uprising in Syria into a proxy war. All sides are agreed in principle on a ceasefire between the government and the mainstream rebel groups, to allow for a political transition and even elections. However, the outlines of what stands between the two sides became clear in Vienna. Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, said in Manama he had proposed a step-by-step solution involv-

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ing the withdrawal of foreign forces – a reference to Iranian troops and militias like the Lebanese Hizbollah, which also backs the regime – followed by the setting up of a transitional governing council in four to six months. There would then be elections for all Syrians, including refugees, within 18 months to two years. That seems unlikely to happen, as Iran is unlikely to withdraw troops and advisers until it knows the regime is secure. However, it also focuses on how far apart the two sides are otherwise: Russia and Iran believe Mr Assad must not only be on the transitional governing council but must be allowed to stand for elections. Saudi Arabia wants him to stand down now, while Britain and other European countries have said that he could be ‘part of the transition’. Mr Hammond said he had met privately with Sergei Lavrov, his Russian counterpart to see if there was likely to be any softening of Russia’s position. ‘I probed him very much on Russia’s flexibility’, Mr Hammond told reporters. ‘He told me he doesn’t have any.’ He said Britain would continue to support ‘moderate’ rebels, explaining that he meant rebel groups not part of proscribed terrorist organisations like Isil and Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian arm of al-Qaeda. Critics point out that many ‘moderate’ groups are still Islamist and some allied to Jabhat al-Nusra even if not part of it. ‘It’s very important to preserve the moderate opposition,’ he said. ‘There’s been questioning in the media about whether the moderate opposition really exists.’

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

‘There’s certainly a substantial opposition force on the ground – 60–80,000 people on the ground who are not alNusra or Isil. They are not moderate in the sense that people in Weybridge would recognise as moderate, but they are people who accept that there will be contested elections to determine the future of Syria and it’s important that we maintain that credible opposition.’ © 2015, Telegraph Reprinted with permission

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 31 October 2015

Neue Offensive Gegen Islamischen Staat

Kämpfer der syrischen Opposition haben nach eigenen Angaben eine weitere Militäroffensive gegen die Terrormiliz Islamischer Staat begonnen. Die Reaktionen auf die Wiener Syrien-Konferenz fallen indes unterschiedlich aus. In Syrien gehen Oppositionskämpfer nach eigenen Angaben in eine neue Offensive gegen die Extremistenmiliz Islamischer Staat. Der Kampf werde sich auf die Provinz Hassaka im Nordosten konzentrieren, kündigte eine von den Vereinigten Staaten unterstütze Allianz der Aufständischen am Samstag auf Youtube an. Auch die oppositionsnahe Syrische Beobachtungsstelle für Menschenrechte berichtete über die Pläne. Erst am Freitag hatte der amerikanische Präsident Barack Obama angekündigt, amerikanische Elitesoldaten nach

Syrien zu schicken. Sie sollen von den Amerikanern als moderat eingestufte Aufständische im Kampf gegen den IS unterstützen. Die amerikanische Regierung bestritt jedoch, damit eine grundsätzliche Kehrtwende in ihrer Krisenstrategie einzuleiten. „An der Mission hat sich nichts geändert“, sagte Obamas Sprecher Josh Earnest im Weißen Haus. Bodeneinsätze von Soldaten habe es auch vorher schon gegeben. Außenamtssprecher John Kirby sagte, die Mission ändere sich nicht, die bisherigen Bemühungen in Syrien würden lediglich „verstärkt“. Geteiltes Echo nach Syrien-Konferenz Am Freitag war auf der Wiener SyrienKonferenz in die diplomatischen Bemühungen um ein Ende des Bürgerkriegs etwas Bewegung gekommen. Der saudische Außenminister Adel al Dschubeir sagte am Samstag in Bahrain auf der regionalen Sicherheitskonferenz IISS Manama Dialogue: „Es hat Fortschritte gegeben, aber sie reichen nicht so weit, das wir sagen können, eine Lösung des Konfliktes sei in Reichweite.” Vor allem in der Frage nach der Zukunft des Gewaltherrschers Baschar al Assad gebe es erhebliche Differenzen. „Er sollte noch heute Nachmittag gehen”, sagte Dschubeir. Der britische Außenminister Philip Hammond sprach mit Blick auf Assad sogar von „sehr großen Differenzen“. Ebenso herrscht in der Frage eines Abzugs ausländischer Kräfte nach Dschubeirs Worten Dissenz, womit der Minister in erster Linie die iranischen Militärs, libanesischen Hizbullah-Milizionäre, von Iran unterstützte schi-

itischen Milizen aus dem Irak und das russische Einsatzkontingent gemeint haben dürfte. Das Treffen in Wien beschrieb der saudische Außenminister dennoch als konstruktiv und „sehr offen“. Es sei ursprünglich auf zweieinhalb Stunden angesetzt gewesen, habe dann aber neun Stunden gedauert. Zu der Konferenz waren hohe Vertreter der arabischen Golfstaaten angereist. Blinken bekräftigt Syrien-Engagement Washingtons Vor allem der Konflikt zwischen der sunnitischen Führungsmacht Saudi-Arabien und dem schiitischen Regime bestimmte den Ton. Diplomaten sehen eine Annäherung der Rivalen als entscheidend für eine Lösung des Syrien-Konflikts wie auch des Jemen-Konflikts an. In Manama herrschten indes scharfe Anschuldigungen an die Adresse Irans vor, dessen Aggression und Hegemonialbestrebungen sich die arabischen Golfstaaten entschieden entgegenstellen würden. Der stellvertretende amerikanische Außenminister Antony Blinken bekräftigte in Manama das Syrien-Engagement Washingtons. Er kündigte an, Amerika werde zusätzlich hundert Millionen Dollar bereitstellen, die als Unterstützung für die örtlichen Verwaltungen und die Zivilgesellschaft in die von Rebellen kontrollierten Gebiete fließen sollten. Er äußerte abermals die Hoffnung, Russland werde angesichts der „auch politischen Kosten“ irgendwann zu einer konstruktiven Rolle gezwungen sein. Ein russischer Militärfachmann sagte der F.A.Z. hingegen, die Angriffe könnten „über Jahre“ fortgesetzt werden.

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Leyen vorsichtig optimistisch Verteidigungsministerin Ursula von der Leyen äußerte sich vorsichtig optimistisch zu den Ergebnissen der Wiener Syrien-Konferenz. „Das Treffen in Wien wird anerkannt als ein Startschuss für etwas Neues“, sagte sie in Bahrain. Unterschwellig gebe es zwar auch deutliche Skepsis hinsichtlich weiter bestehender Trennlinien und Gräben, sagte die Ministerin. Aber dass es ein „Momentum“ und einen „berechtigten Hoffnungsschimmer“ gebe, sei ganz klar in der Region spürbar. Siebzehn Staaten hatten am Freitag in Wien gemeinsam einen neuen Anlauf zu einer politischen Lösung der Syrien-Krise genommen, darunter auch Iran und Russland. In zwei Wochen sollen die Beratungen fortgesetzt werden. © 2015, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Reprinted with permission

Bloomberg 31 October 2015

No One But US Believes Russia Will Abandon Assad By Josh Rogin The Obama administration began a new diplomatic process Friday to solve the Syria crisis – a gambit that depends on Russia to eventually push Syrian President Bashar al Assad to step down. But not even America’s allies think Russia will reverse its support for the dictator.

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Representatives of all of the countries supporting forces in Syria’s civil war met for nine hours in Vienna, after which top US officials said that the new talks had made some progress in identifying shared goals, such as maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity and ending the violence. Diplomats from the US, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and several other countries agreed to meet again within two weeks. There was no agreement on the key issue, whether Assad would be compelled to leave power as part of a transition to a new Syrian government. Antony Blinken, the US deputy secretary of state who spoke Saturday at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, said the US government believes it’s only a matter of time before Moscow realizes that its military intervention and its ardent support for Assad’s continued rule are mistakes, after which the Russian government could support a political process that includes replacing Assad. ‘Russia’s intervention in Syria is a prime example of the law of unintended consequences. It will have two primary effects’, Blinken said. ‘First, it will increase Russia’s leverage over Assad. But second, it will increase the conflict’s leverage over Russia. And that will create a compelling incentive to Russia to work for, not against, a political solution.’ Russia will not be able to afford to sustain its military intervention in Syria for long, Blinken said, and sooner rather than later the economic, political and security costs will force Russia to reevaluate its Syria policy. He said Russia

will be dragged into a quagmire, and he expressed confidence that Russia would come around to the realization that in order to solve Syria, it will have to agree to Assad’s departure. ‘Russia has a choice now on how to move forward, and we would welcome it making the right choice for our shared interests,’ Blinken said. After he spoke, a series of officials and experts from the countries that are allied with the United States on the Syria issue openly disagreed with the contention there was any significant chance Russia would come around to the Western view on Assad’s future. The British foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, told me he had good reason to be skeptical of that optimism. ‘There’s a school of thought that says that as the Russians get drawn into this conflict, they will more and more looking for a way to get a political solution’, he said – but ‘it’s not my government’s assessment.’ Hammond said he spoke with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, the day before in Vienna after the talks concluded and Lavrov told him Russia did not have any flexibility on the issue of Assad’s departure. Hammond said that the Russian position on Assad is exactly the same as it was three years ago and that it’s likely to remain the same. Russia says Assad was elected, and only an election can replace him. That would be ‘directly at odds with those of us who believe that Assad has so much blood on this hands that he has to depart before there can be a sustainable political solution in Syria’, Hammond said.

The Russian Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Lavrov has said repeatedly that the fate of Assad was a decision for Syrians alone and that Russia would not negotiate a date for his departure. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, spoke at the conference after Blinken and said that in order for any real political process in Syria to begin, Russia and Iran must withdraw their forces from Syria and agree to a date and means for Assad’s departure. Al-Jubeir said Saudi Arabia would continue to arm the Syrian opposition until Russia and Iran agreed to both conditions. François Heisbourg, the chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former top official in the French foreign ministry, disputed Blinken’s contention that Russia would feel pressured by the costs of its intervention in Syria: ‘I would be very surprised if Russia could not sustain such an effort despite its other difficulties until at least the end of the American electoral cycle in November of next year’ – in other words, wait out the Obama administration and deal with the next president. Maxim Shepovalenko, a senior research fellow at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, told me that the Russian thinking is that the military intervention might actually succeed and that Assad might stay. Either way, there’s no way the Russian government is going to negotiate Assad’s departure anytime soon. ‘We believe firmly that the Syrians will decide for themselves, and if this

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campaign is a success, Assad is definitely the one who will be preferable’, he said. What if the US government’s assumption is wrong, and Russia does not become a force for a political resolution in Syria? Is the Obama administration depending too heavily on Russia to pressure Assad? Blinken pointed to the US efforts to build up rebel groups to fight the Islamic State as evidence that the US is still pressuring Assad. He didn’t specifically mention the 50 US special forces troops that the US just announced it will send into northern Syria. ‘The forces that are being empowered on the ground to fight Daesh are also increasingly in a position to help create the conditions for political transition in their country as well’, he told me. ‘And we will continue to work and strengthen our support for those forces.’ The Obama administration has long said that its support for Syrian rebels fighting the Islamic State, also called Daesh, is not directed at Assad. In any case, US support for the rebels fighting Assad has declined, especially after the US canceled its ‘train and equip’ program to empower local fighters. Privately, European diplomats at the conference told me they were concerned the new US-led diplomatic effort was an empty gesture, to allow the Obama administration to claim it was working in earnest to solve the Syria crisis. America’s allies are reluctant to invest in a process in which they do not think the US has much confidence and that has little chance of success.

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

US officials told me that the Vienna talks with Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and others are an honest attempt to convince Russia to change its position on Syria and that there is some hope Russia will endorse a solution to the Syrian civil war that does not include Assad remaining in power. But nobody else in the room shares that hope. © 2015, Bloomberg Reprinted with permission

Agence France-Presse 31 October 2015

US Announces $100 Mln in New Aid to Syria Opposition

The United States on Saturday announced it is providing nearly $100 million more in aid to the Syrian opposition for tasks like supporting local councils and civil society activists. This brings to nearly $500 million the amount the United States has pledged to the Syrian opposition since 2002, the State Department said. The new pledge was made by Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken at a regional security forum called the Manama Dialogue, in Bahrain. ‘US assistance is helping keep schools open for Syrian children; restoring access to electricity and water infrastructure; supporting independent media and civil society to hold their local governments accountable, and building the capacity of the moderate opposition to play a role in a future Syria that respects human rights and

the rule of law,’ the department said in a statement. This assistance was announced a day after the United States revealed that is sending dozens of special ops forces to Syria to assist forces fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group. © 2015, Agence France-Presse Reprinted with permission

Al Arabiya 31 October 2015

Saudi FM: US Support of Gulf at ‘Record High’ By Ismaeel Naar Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Saturday that US support of the Gulf is at an ‘all-time high’ when asked by Al Arabiya News to comment on the absence of aircraft carriers in the region. ‘The relationship with the US in the strategic sense has not changed. The American presence in the region has in fact increased, whether aircraft carriers have been withdrawn or not. The number of American troops and forces in the region is almost at a record high’, Jubeir said. In August, the US navy announced that it pull its sole aircraft carriers out of the Gulf this fall – leaving the region without a naval strike force for the first time in seven years. The decision came at a sensitive time, as Western powers struck a deal with

Iran on curbing Iranian nuclear ambitions through a nuclear deal that would see economic sanctions being lifted. ‘The decisions that were arrived at between the Gulf countries and the US with regards to military cooperation, intelligence sharing, cyber security, ballistic missile defense are all working. The agreement was made between the leadership of GCC leaders with President Obama to intensify efforts in those areas and they’re ongoing as we speak,’ he said. The top Saudi diplomat said that the US support for the region should not be measured by naval presence alone. ‘I wouldn’t measure it by aircraft carriers leaving the Gulf or not. We’ve had situations in the past where we were left with only one or two carriers but US ships and aircrafts are still available.’ During the same conference, US Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the region is ‘home to some of our oldest allies’. ‘President Obama made it clear that defending them against aggression has been, is and will always remain a core national interest of the United States,’ he added. Jubeir was speaking at the 11th Manana Dialogue in Bahrain, a conference held by the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank. Iran’s activities in the region was a hot topic in the sessions, where Arab diplomats including Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed alKhalifa and Secretary General of the Arab League Nabil Elaraby voicing similar views.

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‘Iran is at a crossroads, and it’s their choice where they can either choose to have a major shift in their foreign policy and move to phase two of fixing their relationships with the world after their nuclear deal and hopefully it will succeed,’ Sheikh Khalid said. ‘Or else they can continue on their current policies that don’t bring them any stability and continue to send the wrong messages not only to their neighbours but also to their people,’ Bahrain’s top diplomat said. Asked by Al Arabiya News on the status of a joint Arab military force, proposed in May this year by Arab League states, Elaraby said it ‘was a legitimate question’. ‘There were meetings where we had at least 17 chiefs of staffs from across the Arab world, something that has never happened before,’ Elaraby told Al Arabiya News. Elaraby said that with the proposed forces, military units would not be stationed in one base or country. ‘Every country will have their own barracks under each [of their] own jurisdictions. A protocol was worked out which most, if not all, countries agreed on. The general idea of that was that such a force could be used in rapid deployment,’ he said. He also added that a joint council made up of the ministers of defense and foreign ministers of each country would take any decisions taken by the joint Arab military force in the future. Syria’s future and countering Iran Jubeir made his trip to Bahrain’s capital Manama only hours after meeting with 16 other foreign powers in Vienna

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

– including the US, Iran and Russia – who collectively called on Friday for a nationwide truce in Syria’s civil war, a renewal of stalled UN-brokered talks between the government and opposition forces, and fresh elections. It was announced that another meeting would be held in two weeks to determine the future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. ‘On Syria, the issue has to do with determining a new leadership other than Assad. That is the main objective as we see it,’ Jubeir said. He also reiterated the importance to focus both on Assad’s departure and the removal of foreign forces in Syria as well. ‘The idea here is to ensure the departure of Assad doesn’t create a collapse of the state and a political vacuum,’ he said. Asked what alternatives Syria has should a political solution fail in the coming months, Jubeir said that Saudi would aid the moderate Syrian opposition with ‘more lethal weapons to fight the Assad regime’. When asked during what time frame Assad should leave, he said: ‘Ideally he should leave this afternoon. The sooner the better and we can all move in help building a new Syria.’ © 2015, Al Arabiya Reprinted with permission

Gulf News 31 October 2015

Bahrain Crown Prince Says the World has Failed Syrians 11th Manama Dialogue opens with call for ‘greater urgency’ in finding solutions to region’s problems By Habib Toumi Manama: Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa has warned that ‘the urgency with which solutions must be found to address the human suffering within the region has never been greater.’ Speaking at the opening of the 11th Manama Dialogue, an international high-level security conference held annually in the Bahraini capital, Prince Salman said: ‘All countries must recognise that long-term stability is built on the foundations of hope, opportunity and prosperity, and that the principles of tolerance and coexistence must inform every aspect of regional reform. ‘It is exactly these principles that are being opposed by the violent extremists in the region who distort religion in order to disrupt development.’ In his remarks about the situation in Syria, the Crown Prince said that the international community must accept the difficult truth that it has collectively failed the millions of innocent people so

badly affected by the civil war. The Syrian people now constitute a fifth of the 60 million people in the world displaced as a result of crises, and international efforts to achieve a long-term political solution – which has eluded the international community for over four years – must be agreed without delay, he added in remarks carried by Bahrain News Agency (BNA). Referring to the situation in Yemen, Prince Salman said that the efforts led by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the southern Arabian Peninsula country ‘demonstrate the way in which diplomatic efforts can be aligned with military collaboration in order to decisively address conflict’. The Crown Prince stressed that this year’s Manama Dialogue takes place at a crucial juncture as a number of critical issues are challenging security across the region and the world, and conveyed hope that the serious and productive discussions that take place at the event would ‘make a significant contribution to solutions that foster lasting regional stability’. In partnership with the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Bahrain has led the region’s foremost security conference for over ten years and the conference continues to provide a unique forum that facilitates multilateral engagement and private diplomacy in resolving conflict, he said. Prince Salman welcomed Egyptian President Abdul Fattah Al Sissi’s comments regarding the need for social and economic development to underpin stability and long-term positive change.

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The Egyptian leader delivered the opening address in which he detailed the complexity of issues currently facing the region. In his opening remarks, John Chipman, the Director-General and Chief Executive of IISS, said the Manama Dialogue ‘is a strong anchor to all of our work here’. ‘Each year, with this regional security summit, we take the temperature, measure the pulse and analyse the direction of change in the Middle East,’ he said. ‘In the past year, we have seen leaders in the region take a stronger stand to design their political and security environment, rather than be shaped by it. The accelerating pace of events is driving states to adjust foreign and defence policies at speed. Outsiders are recasting their approach to Gulf security, or reaffirming their interests afresh. Those within the region are adjusting their public position, creating new alliances and inventing new policies. External military and political intervention has in the past been regretted. Its absence is no less often a cause for disenchantment. The intermingling of religious and territorial competition is, for some of us here, historically reminiscent of Europe’s Thirty Years’ War.’ Chipman added that ‘while in the last 30 years there has been a significant shift in political power and influence to the states of the Gulf, Egypt remains the indispensable Arab state’. ‘It has an enduring political and demographic weight and a political history that encapsulates all the issues that we will discuss at this summit: the

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

making of war and peace, revolution and nationalism, the challenges of economic modernisation, religiously based extremism and insurgency’, he said. ‘Egypt is a central political fact. It is essential to any settlement of the conflicts that currently wrack the region – from Yemen, to Libya, to Syria and Iraq.’ © 2015, Gulf News Reprinted with permission

Daily News Egypt 31 October 2015

Al-Sisi Attends Manama Dialogue, Meets with German Defence Minister President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi called for political solutions to Middle East crises, condemning sectarian conflicts By Sarah El-Sheikh President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi met with German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen in Manama, Bahrain on Saturday. The German minister praised AlSisi’s last visit to Berlin in June, saying it strengthened cooperation between the two countries. She also expressed Germany’s wish to advance cooperation between Egypt in both the military and the economic fields, according to presidential spokesman Alaa Yousef. Al-Sisi also confirmed Egypt’s keenness to enhance bilateral relations be-

tween the two countries in all fields, and expressed his appreciation for Germany’s encouragement of all Egyptian initiatives. He praised the performance of German companies in Egypt. Meanwhile, President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi participated in the opening of the annual International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Manama Dialogue. Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa had noted that Al-Sisi’s participation confirms Egypt’s vital role in Middle East issues. During the dialogue, Al-Sisi discussed the situation in Libya, Syria, Palestine and Yemen, stressing the necessity of limiting conflicts due to their serious impact on the Middle East’s security. He stressed on finding political solutions to solve the crises through the cooperation. Throughout Al-Sisi’s tour to the UAE and Bahrain, he was eager to highlight Egypt’s efforts to safeguard the security of Gulf states. ‘Bahrain is currently witnessing tensions between its leaders and opposition parties; therefore Egypt’s presence in the Manama dialogue is essential to strengthen relations’, political scientist Hassan Nafaa told Daily News Egypt. Egypt’s alliance with Saudi Arabia to support ‘legitimacy in Yemen’ is also important for Egypt’s security and stability, since the Bab Al-Mandab strait is near the Suez Canal, while the security and stability of Gulf countries is essential to Egyptian national security, Nafaa added. Also on Friday, Bahraini King Hamad Bin Issa Al-Khalifa met with Al-Sisi to discuss the bilateral relations between Egypt and Bahrain. He highlighted

ways to advance cooperation between the two countries in various fields and confirmed the importance of continuing the consultations and coordination between both countries. © 2015, Daily News Egypt Reprinted with permission

BBC 1 November 2015

Gulf Arab Leaders Fear Twin Threats from Extremists By Frank Gardner The visible security cordon around the annual Manama Dialogue, the air-conditioned meeting rooms and all the theatre of government protocol belie the sense of unease that has permeated this premier regional security conference, organised by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The region is still coming to terms with the consequences of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 which tipped the chessboard of Middle Eastern power politics upside down. Most of those consequences are unwelcome to the oil-rich Gulf Arab states. In Iraq, the despotic Sunni regime of President Saddam Hussein has been replaced by a Shia-led government seen by many here as a proxy of Iran. The subsequent marginalisation of Iraq’s Sunni population in recent years helped give rise to the violent jihadist group calling itself Islamic State (IS).

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Today, the region’s leaders are looking nervously at a range of threats, both within their borders and beyond. The ‘cult’ of Daesh (‘Islamic State’) Using the Arabic term ‘Daesh’ for the so-called Islamic State, Saudi Arabia’s urbane Foreign Minister, Adel Jubeir, said the organisation that has seized large parts of Iraq and Syria under its black banner was not a religious movement but a cult. Thousands of Saudis have joined its ranks, drawn by the similarities to some of their own country’s strict, ascetic interpretations of Islam. This year Saudi Arabia has suffered several deadly attacks by IS suicide bombers, mostly targeting mosques, both Sunni and Shia, as the militant group attempts to provoke a sectarian conflict in the Gulf. Bahrain announced that it had identified 70 of its nationals fighting for IS and a further 24 individuals have been charged with trying to form a branch of IS in Bahrain. Sixteen of these suspects remain at large. The Saudi foreign minister categorised those would-be jihadists who go off to join IS in three ways. • Idealists, who he said were ‘redeemable’. • Sectarians who went to fight for a cause (defending fellow Sunni Muslims) but found the war was not what they expected. • Lost people seeking a cause. These, said Mr Jubeir, were young men who had been in and out of jails and were now trying to atone for their sins.

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Britain’s Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond gave a keynote speech to the conference in which he admitted that the UK had been ‘too slow in the past to recognise the links between non-violent extremism and violent extremism’. He added: ‘For decades we have clung to a false distinction between the two. With hindsight, we’ve been too tolerant of intolerance.’ Britain, he said, would shortly be introducing legislation to ban the most dangerous extremist organisations. Iran’s wealth unleashed There is a fair degree of nervousness here about how Iran will spend the soon-to-be-released billions of dollars in unfrozen funds as a result of the UNbacked nuclear deal. Many of the Gulf Arab states see Iran as a strategic threat even without its nuclear programme, which Iran says is purely for peaceful purposes. Both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have accused Iran of interfering in their countries and exporting terrorism. On a visit to London last month a senior Iranian official strongly denied this. ‘We want to have the best possible relations with Iran’, said Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir without a hint of irony (Iran and Saudi Arabia are regional rivals with a history of mutual distrust). ‘But the reason they are not good is because of Iran’s interventions in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen and its attempts to destabilise Bahrain.’ Mr Jubeir said Saudi Arabia welcomed the Iran deal but that Iran had huge infrastructure challenges and the

region did not yet know whether it would spend the proceeds from the deal on developing its infrastructure at home – or on funding what he called ‘aggressive policies’ abroad. Bahrain recently expelled the Iranian ambassador after blaming it for supplying a major arms cache to insurgents. There were no Iranian officials at this year’s Manama Dialogue. But Nazenin Ansari, a London-based Iranian journalist for Kayhan newspaper, attending the conference, told me that ‘there are different (power) centres with different agendas in Iran.’ ‘The Foreign Ministry would like to have a more civilised and a more cordial relationship with the outside world and to be able to reintegrate Iran into the outside world. But there are those in Iran who see this as a death knell for their power structures within Iran and they will use every means at their disposal to put a stop to that.’ Bombs in Bahrain In a side room of the conference Bahrain’s Chief of Police, Maj-Gen Tariq Al-Hassan showed delegates round a chilling display of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), claymore mines, machine guns and grenades discovered by security forces here over the last four years. Bahrain has been wracked by more than four years of intermittent protests that have led to over 20 deaths including, increasingly, policemen. The police chief said a total of 445 IEDs had been uncovered, all exported by Iran. The US Navy, whose powerful

5th Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain, has been providing the Bahrainis with intelligence tip-offs. Although the violence has subsided considerably from its peak in 2011, human rights organisations still accuse the Bahraini authorities of abuses. Opposition activists and journalists have previously accused the government of exaggerating the threat from terrorism but a senior British military officer present said the finds on display were all genuine. Syrian conflict unresolved The conflict raging in Syria has dominated this year’s Manama Dialogue. The Saudi foreign minister, just back from the talks in Vienna, sounded pessimistic about the chances of any imminent breakthrough. Although there had been agreement on some more minor points there remained two serious sticking points dividing those supporting and opposing Syria’s embattled President Bashar alAssad. These were: • The date of departure of President Assad. Saudi Arabia and its allies ‘would like him to leave this afternoon preferably’. Iran, largely backed by Russia, wants him to stay • The date of departure of Iranian forces from Syria. Iran denies having combat troops in Syria, only ‘advisors’. Saudi Arabia says thousands have been sent, along with Iran’s proxy army in Lebanon, Hezbollah, and calling them ‘an occupying army’ it wants them to leave. The US Deputy Secretary of State

Press coverage

Antony Blinken found himself on the defensive over US policy on Syria. He announced a further $100m in aid for the Syrian opposition and insisted that progress was being made against IS in Iraq. Yemen war – the final phase? As a country on the extreme southwest tip of the Arabian Peninsula, what happens in Yemen concerns all six Gulf Arab states and there was much discussion of the seven-month war there that has cost more than 4,000 lives. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain reiterated their view that blame lay with the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels who took over much of the country last year. But international concern over civilian casualties has been mounting, especially those caused by Saudi-led air strikes.

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

The Saudi foreign minister said he believed the war had now entered its final phase and that a deal based on a UN Security Council resolution was possible. Embarrassingly for the conference organisers however, two respected Yemeni delegates were expelled from Bahrain at the request of Yemen’s acting Foreign Minister, Riyadh Yasseen, claiming incorrectly that they were Houthis. One even had to leave midway through a conference workshop session. The move has been widely criticised as being completely contrary to the spirit of ‘a dialogue’ and has painted both the Bahraini authorities and Yemen’s exiled government in a poor light. © 2015, BBC Reprinted with permission

Selected IISS publications

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, the Institute’s bi-monthly journal, is a leading forum for analysis and debate of international and strategic affairs. Recent articles of interest include: Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Iran: A Good Deal’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October– November 2015, pp. 47–52. Moore, Thomas C., ‘Iran: NonProliferation Overshadowed’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October– November 2015, pp. 53–8. Avis Bohlen, ‘Iran: An Opening for Diplomacy?’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 59–66. Tertrais, Bruno, ‘Iran: An Experiment in Strategic Risk-Taking’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 67–73. Hanna, Michael Wahid, and Kaye, Dalia Dassa, ‘The Limits of Iranian Power’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October– November 2015, pp. 173–98. Fishman, Ben, ‘Could Libya’s Decline Have Been Predicted?’, Survival, vol.

57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 199–208. Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the Nuclear Rumour Mill’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 4, August– September 2015, pp. 105–8. Scheipers, Sibylle, ‘Auxiliaries at War in the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 4, August–September 2015, pp. 121–38. Fromson, James, and Simon, Steven, ‘ISIS: The Dubious Paradise of Apocalypse Now’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 3, June–July 2015, pp. 7–56. Ahram, Ariel I., ‘Sexual Violence and the Making of ISIS’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 3, June–July 2015, pp. 57–78. Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Relief’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 3, June–July 2015, pp. 219–26. Freilich, Charles D., ‘Why Can’t Israel Win Wars Any More?’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 2, April–May 2015, pp. 79–92. Holbrook, Donald, ‘Al-Qaeda and the Rise of ISIS’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 2, April–May 2015, pp. 93–104. Cheterian, Vicken, ‘ISIS and the Killing Fields of the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 2, April–May 2015, pp. 105–18.

Selected IISS publications

Fishman, Ben, ‘Jordan: Caught in the Middle Again’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 39–48. Farwell, James P., ‘The Media Strategy of ISIS’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 49–55. Hokayem, Emile, ‘Iran, the Gulf States, and the Syrian Civil War’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014– January 2015, pp. 59–86. Lister, Charles, ‘Assessing Syria’s Jihad’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 87–112. Barkey, Henri J., ‘Turkey’s Syria Predicament’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 113–34. Dodge, Toby, ‘Can Iraq Be Saved?’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 5, October– November 2014, pp. 7–20. Fetzek, Shiloh, and Mazo, Jeffrey, ‘Climate, Scarcity and Conflict’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 5, October– November 2014, pp. 143–70.

Tanner, Rolf, ‘Narrative and Conflict in the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 2, April–May 2014, pp. 89–108. Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Overwhelming Global Vote for the Iran Nuclear Deal’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 71–75. Byman, Daniel, ‘Sectarianism Afflicts the New Middle East’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 79–100. Gaub, Florence, ‘Libya’s Recipe for Disaster’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 101–20. Mina, James, and Serwer, Daniel, ‘Circumventing Hormuz’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 121–38. Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 6, December 2013–January 2014, pp. 107–14. Brockmeier, Sarah, ‘Germany and the Intervention in Libya’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 6, December 2013–January 2014, pp. 63–90.

Roberts, Daniel B., ‘Qatar and the Brotherhood’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 4, August–September 2014, pp. 23–32.

Larrabee, Stephen F., ‘Turkey’s New Kurdish Opening’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 5, October–November 2013, pp. 133–46.

Alsayed, Wafa, ‘The Impatience of Youth: Political Activism in the Gulf’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 4, August– September 2014, pp. 91–106.

Simon, Steven, ‘Egypt’s Sorrow and America’s Limits’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 5, October–November 2013, pp. 79–84.

Ozkan, Behlül, ‘Turkey, Davutoglu and the Idea of Pan-Islamism’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 4, August–September 2014, pp. 119–140.

Peel, Michael, ‘Africa and the Gulf’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August– September 2013, pp. 143–54.

Stevenson, Jonathan, ‘The Syrian Tragedy and Precedent’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 3, June–July 2014, pp. 121–140. Taspinar, Omer, ‘The End of the Turkish Model’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 2, April– May 2014, pp. 49–64. Chubin, Shahram, ‘Is Iran a Military Threat’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 2, April– May 2014, pp. 65–88.

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Guzansky, Yoel and Yadlin, MajorGeneral (retd) Amos, ‘The Arab World’s Response to an Israeli Attack on Iran’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 107–20. Borghard, Erica D. and Rapp-Hooper, Mira, ‘Hizbullah and the Iranian Nuclear Programme’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 85–106.

Jones, Peter, ‘Hope and Disappointment: Iran and the Arab Spring’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 73–84. Jones, Seth G., ‘Syria’s Growing Jihad’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August– September 2013, pp. 53–72. Serwer, Daniel, ‘Muddling Through in Iraq’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August– September 2013, pp. 35–40. Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Reinforce Rowhani’s Mandate for Change’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 31–34. McCrisken, Trevor, ‘Obama’s Drone War’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 2, April– May 2013, pp. 97–122. Bronk, Christopher and Tikk-Ringas, Eneken, ‘The Cyber Attack on Saudi Aramco’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 2, April–May 2013, pp. 81–96. Charap, Samuel, ‘Russia, Syria and the Doctrine of Intervention’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 1, February–March 2013, pp. 35–41. Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Iran Will Determine Obama’s Legacy’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 41–46. Barrie, Douglas, ‘Libya’s Lessons: The Air Campaign’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 57–65. Chivvis, Christopher S., ‘Libya and the Future of Liberal Intervention’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 69–92. Freilich, Charles D., ‘Striking Iran: The Debate in Israel’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 93–106. Clayton, Blake and Levi, Michael, ‘The Surprising Sources of Oil’s Influence’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 107–22. Barkey, Henri J., ‘Turkish–Iranian Competition after the Arab Spring’,

Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 139–62. Jones, Erik, ‘Turkey Reconsidered’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 163–70. Mousavian, Hossein, ‘Iran, the US and Weapons of Mass Destruction’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 5, October– November 2012, pp. 183–202. Parasiliti, Andrew, ‘Closing the Deal with Iran’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 4, August–September 2012, pp. 33–41. Stein, Ewan, ‘Revolution or Coup? Egypt’s Fraught Transition’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 4, August–September 2012, pp. 45–66. Phillips, Christopher, ‘Syria’s Torment’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 4, August– September 2012, pp. 67–82. Farwell, James P. and Rohozinski, Rafal, ‘The New Reality of Cyber War’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 4, August– September 2012, pp. 107–20. Keynoush, Banafsheh, ‘Iran after Ahmadinejad’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 3, June–July 2012, pp. 127–46. Dodge, Toby, ‘Iraq’s Road Back to Dictatorship’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 3, June–July 2012, pp. 147168. Hokayem, Emile, ‘Syria and its Neighbours’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 7–14. Samaan, Jean-Loup, ‘Jordan’s New Geopolitics’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 15–26. Bleek, Philipp C. and Stein, Aaron, ‘Turkey and America Face Iran’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 27–38. Bellodi, Leonardo, ‘Libya’s Assets and the Question of Sovereignty’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 39–45. Long, Austin and Radin, Andrew, ‘Enlisting Islam for an Effective Afghan Police’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 113–28.

Selected IISS publications

Allin, Dana H., ‘Rumours of War’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 211–20.

Afghanistan to 2015 and Beyond, Adelphi 425–6, Routledge for the IISS, 2011.

Elleman, Michael, ‘Containing Iran’s Missile Threat’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 1, February–March 2012, pp. 119–26.

Phillips, Sarah, Yemen and the Politics of Permanent Crisis, Adelphi 420, Routledge for the IISS, 2011.

Parasiliti, Andrew, ‘Leaving Iraq’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 1, February– March 2012, pp. 127–33.

Berdal , Mats and Wennmann, Achim, Ending Wars, Consolidating Peace: Economic Perspectives, Adelphi 412–3, Routledge for the IISS, 2010.

McKean, David, ‘After Iraq: The Trigger Doctrine’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 1, February–March 2012, pp. 159–74. Dobbins, James, ‘Coping with a Nuclearising Iran’, Survival, vol. 53, no. 6, December 2011–January 2012, pp. 37–50. Perthes, Volker, ‘Europe and the Arab Spring’, Survival, vol. 53, no. 6, December 2011–January 2012, pp. 73–84. Springborg, Robert, ‘The Precarious Economics of Arab Springs’, Survival, vol. 53, no. 6, December 2011– January 2012, pp. 85–104. Jones, Peter, ‘Succession and the Supreme Leader in Iran’, Survival, vol. 53, no. 6, December 2011– January 2012, pp. 105–26.

The Adelphi series of books is the Institute’s principal contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research. Recent publications include: Dodge, Toby, and Hokayem, Emile, Middle Eastern Security, the US Pivot and the Rise of ISIS, Adelphi 447–8, Routledge for the IISS, 2014. Hokayem, Emile, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant, Adelphi 438, Routledge for the IISS, 2013. Dodge, Toby, Iraq: From War to a new Authoritarianism, Adelphi 434–5, Routledge for the IISS, 2012. Dodge,

Toby,

Redman,

Nicholas,

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Bisley, Nick, Building Asia’s Security, Adelphi 408, Routledge for the IISS, 2009. Synnott, Hilary, Transforming Pakistan: Ways Out of Instability, Adelphi 407, Routledge for the IISS, 2009. Raine, Sarah, China’s African Challenges, Adelphi 406, Routledge for the IISS, 2009. Hughes, Christopher W, Japan’s Remilitarisation, Adelphi 405, Routledge for the IISS, 2009. Hashim, Ahmed S, Iraq’s Sunni Insurgency, Adelphi Paper 402, Routledge for the IISS, 2009. Fitzpatrick, Mark, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Avoiding Worst-Case Outcomes, Adelphi Paper 398, Routledge for the IISS, 2008. Perkovich, George and Acton, James M, Abolishing Nuclear Weapons, Adelphi Paper 396, Routledge for the IISS, 2008. Kurth Cronin, Audrey, Ending Terrorism: Lessons for defeating al-Qaeda, Adelphi Paper 394, Routledge for the IISS, 2008. Ansari, Ali M, Iran under Ahmadinejad: The Politics of Confrontation, Adelphi Paper 393, Routledge for the IISS, 2007. Akkoyunlu, Karabekir, Military Reform and Democratisation: Turkish and Indonesian Experiences at the Turn of the Millennium, Adelphi Paper 392, Routledge for the IISS, 2007.

The Strategic Dossier series harnesses the Institute’s technical expertise to present detailed information on key strategic issues. Recent publications include: Iran’s Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Capabilities: A Net Assessment, IISS, 2011. Iran’s Nuclear, Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A Net Assessment, IISS, 2010. Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In the shadow of Iran, IISS, 2008. Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan and the Rise of Proliferation Networks: A Net Assessment, IISS, 2007.

Strategic Comments is the Institute’s online source of analysis of international security and politico-military issues. Recent articles of interest include: ‘Turkey’s growing security concerns’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 27 – October 2015. ‘Libya’s fragmented conflict resists solutions’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 22 – September 2015. ‘Iran’s nuclear agreement: the terms’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 19 – July 2015. ‘Iraqi Kurdistan: the essential briefing’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 7 – March 2015. ‘Iran nuclear talks approach conclusive deadline’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 4 – February 2015. ‘Libya’s civil war: the essential briefing’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 50 – February 2015. ‘Turkey’s Syria role risks instability at home, isolation abroad’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 36 – October 2014.

‘ISIS: the threat to homeland security’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 35 – October 2014. ‘Libya’s civil war no closer to resolution’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 31 – October 2014. ‘Iran nuclear talks extended for four more months’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 23 – June 2014. ‘Egypt’s economic crisis challenges ElSisi’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 22 – June 2014. ‘Libya: Muslim Brotherhood’s tenuous hold’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 21 – June 2014. ‘North Korean lessons for an Iranian nuclear accord’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 18 – May 2014. ‘Syria’s war: Assad gains upper hand’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 15 – May 2014. ‘Torn Turkey: more turbulence ahead’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 12 – April 2014. ‘Elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons stalls’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 11 – April 2014. ‘Iraq violence grows ahead of elections’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 4 – February 2014. ‘Libya: paralysed by militias’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 38 – November 2013 ‘Iran’s Rouhani: high hopes, narrow remit’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 37 – November 2013 ‘Iranian ICBMs: a distant prospect’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 36 – November 2013 ‘Al-Shabaab targeted after Nairobi attack’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 35 – November 2013 ‘Equipment purchases boost Gulf defences’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 34 – November 2013

Selected IISS publications

‘Turkey’s deepening democratic deficit’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 33 – October 2013 ‘Egypt: shifting politics under army control’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 32 – October 2013 ‘Syrian chemical plan faces multiple challenges’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 29 – September 2013 ‘Syrian war worsens Lebanon’s malaise’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 25 – September 2013 ‘Turkey’s civil unrest: a worrying new era?’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 19 – June 2013 ‘Iran seeks stability in election’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 17 – June 2013 ‘Syria crisis highlights importance of Chemical Weapons Convention’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 12 – April 2013 ‘Libya: fragile security, fragmented politics’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 10 – March 2013 ‘Kuwait’s deepening political turmoil’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 9 – March 2013 ‘US need for foreign oil falls dramatically’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 6 – March 2013 ‘Egypt: a country on edge’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 5 – February 2013 ‘Jihad in Russia: the Caucasus Emirate’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 45 – December 2012. ‘Glimmer of hope in Iran nuclear gloom?’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 38 – October 2012. ‘Turkey’s frustrations grow with Syrian civil war’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 37 – October 2012. ‘Benghazi attack throws Libya gains into question’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 35 – October 2012. ‘Russia’s Syrian stance: principled selfinterest’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18,

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

no. 31 – September 2012. ‘Syria: foreign intervention still debated, but distant’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 28 – September 2012. ‘Unease grows over Syria’s chemical weapons’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 25 – August 2012. ‘Iran sanctions halt long-range ballisticmissile development’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 22 – July 2012. ‘Kuwait’s political turmoil threatens progress’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 15 – April 2012. ‘Iraq: Maliki power grab risks fresh civil war’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 14 – April 2012. ‘Syria: inevitable descent into civil war?’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 7 – March 2012. ‘Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s disruptive military options’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 3 – January 2012.

Strategic Survey is the Institute’s annual review – and, to a lesser degree, projection – of strategic developments throughout the world. Recent sections of interest include: ‘Syria: New Rebel Alliances’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 192–202. ‘Iraq: Battling ISIS’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 203–10. ‘ISIS: Widening Impact’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 211–13. ‘Jordan: Struggle to Preserve Stability’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 213–15. ‘Lebanon: Burden of Syrian War’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 215–16. ‘Israel and Palestine: Hardline Politics and Resurgent Violence’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 217–22. ‘Iran: Nuclear Agreement Reached’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 223–35. ‘Saudi Arabia: Succession amid Regional

Crises’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 235–40.

Study’, Strategic Survey 2012, pp. 61–74.

‘Gulf States: Tentative Integration’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 241–45.

‘Difficult Transitions Follow Arab Uprisings’, Strategic Survey 2012, pp. 199–239.

‘Yemen: From Political Transition to Civil War’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 245–51. ‘Egypt: New Political Order’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 252–7. ‘Maghreb: Differing Political Trajectories’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 257–61. ‘Syria: Escalation and Fragmentation’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 183–91. ‘Lebanon: Greater Insecurity and Complex Politics’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 192–95. ‘Israel and Palestine: Stalled Peace Process’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 196–200. ‘Iraq: Violent Insurgency’, Survey 2014, pp. 205–12.

Strategic

‘Iran: Interim Nuclear Deal’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 213–24. ‘Gulf States: Tensions Between Neighbours’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 224–36. ‘Egypt’s Revolution Stalls’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 238–44. ‘Maghreb: Legacy of the Arab Spring, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 245–52. ‘Spreading Conflict in the Levant’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 179–88. ‘North Africa’s Difficult Transitions’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 188–204. ‘Gulf States: Containing Change’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 204–16. ‘Israel and Palestine: Status Quo Amidst Regional Upheaval’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 216–21.

‘Israel and Palestine: Deadlock and Stagnation’, Strategic Survey 2012, pp. 240–46. ‘Iran: Nuclear Confrontation Escalates’, Strategic Survey 2012, pp. 246–61. ‘Iraq: Maliki Strengthens Dominance’, Strategic Survey 2012, pp. 261–69.

The Military Balance is the Institute’s annual assessment of military capabilities and defence economics worldwide. Region-byregion analyses cover the major military and economic trends and developments affecting security policy and the trade in weapons and other military equipment. Comprehensive tables portray key data on weapons and defence economics. Defence expenditure trends over a ten-year period are also shown. The Military Balance 2016. Routledge for the IISS, February 2016.

The Manama Dialogue Report Online access to previous editions is available at www.iiss.org/ publications/conference proceedings/ sections/the-manama-dialogue-46e2

‘Iran: Persistent Confrontation’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 221–36. ‘Iraq: Political Deadlock’, Survey 2013, pp. 236–46.

Strategic

‘Economic Sanctions on Iran: A Case

Selected IISS publications

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue

CHAPTER 4

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GCC Defence Posture and External Powers Click to see photos

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Stabilising Weak States Click to see photos

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The Role ofThePolitical Islamism 80 Manama Dialogue 2010

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11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue The 11th IISS Regional Security Summit: The IISS Manama Dialogue was held in the Kingdom of Bahrain in October 2015, eleven years after the inaugural Summit. The Dialogue brought together the national-security establishments of the six Gulf Cooperation Council members: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates; other regional countries including Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Yemen; and important outside powers: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Estonia, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Russia, India, China, Japan, Singapore and Australia. The Manama Dialogue was convened by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), with the support of the Kingdom of Bahrain. The IISS also convenes the annual Asia Security Summit: The Shangri-La Dialogue, bringing together in Singapore defence ministers, chiefs of defence staff, national-security advisers and other senior officials from countries that are members of the ASEAN Regional Forum. The IISS, a registered charity with offices in London, Washington, Bahrain and Singapore, is the world’s leading authority on political-military conflict. It is the primary independent source of accurate, objective information on international strategic issues. Publications include The Military Balance, an annual reference work on each nation’s defence capabilities; Strategic Survey, an annual review of world affairs; Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, a bi-monthly journal on international affairs; Strategic Comments, a monthly analysis of topical issues in international affairs; and the Adelphi series on policy-relevant strategic issues.

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