IISS Manama Dialogue 2016 by International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 12TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 9â&#x20AC;&#x201C;11 December 2016

The IISS Manama Dialogue

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 12TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 9â&#x20AC;&#x201C;11 DECEMBER 2016

The IISS Manama Dialogue

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

12TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 9–11 DECEMBER 2016

The IISS Manama Dialogue The International Institute for Strategic Studies

© February 2017 The International Institute for Strategic Studies Director-General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman Editor Jessica Delaney Contributors Dr Dana Allin, Douglas Barrie, Nick Childs, Virginia Comolli, Mark Fitzpatrick,

James Hackett, Emile Hokayem, Sir John Jenkins, Dr Nelly Lahoud, Elisabeth Marteu, Dr Nicholas Redman, Clément Therme Arabic Editor Yusuf Mubarak Editorial Alice Aveson, Craig Burnett, Chris Raggett, Gaynor Roberts, Carolyn West,

Marike Woollard Editorial Research and Media James Clements, Holly Marriott Webb Production and Design John Buck, Kelly Verity

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the institute.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute are international and its membership is drawn from over 90 countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation. The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate.

Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Chapter 1

Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Chapter 2

Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Chapter 3

Press coverage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Selected IISS publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Chapter 4

Social media . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Contents

HRH Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander and First Deputy Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

Foreword

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is proud to present this summary report of the proceedings of the IISS Manama Dialogue 2016: 12th Regional Security Summit, held from 9 to 11 December 2016. This year’s conference was attended by delegates from 40 countries, including senior ministers, top officials, diplomats, political leaders and military and intelligence chiefs. It took place two days after the 37th Gulf Cooperation Council Summit, also in Bahrain, where Theresa May became the first British Prime Minister to address the Summit. In a marked and significant symmetry, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson gave the keynote address at the Manama Dialogue’s opening dinner. He reviewed the history of Britain’s relationship with the Gulf, and Bahrain in particular, and set the scene for two days of discussion about the role Gulf, Arab and other international actors might play in enhancing security and stability in the region. The world has moved on significantly since the 2015 IISS Manama Dialogue. The Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has been pushed back hard in Iraq and Syria. But the broader conflicts in those countries continue, with a sustained Russian role in the latter and growing concern about the expanForeword

sion of Iranian influence. The attraction of extremist ideologies remains a powerful if contested factor in debates about the future of the Middle East state system. The emergence of Saudi Arabia as a more assertive power, most obviously in Yemen, and the future of Saudi–Iranian relations have also become hot topics. And all this is set against the broader prospect of an incoming United States administration, political turbulence in Europe, new urgency about economic reform and continuing pressure on global energy producers. Energy prices have shown signs of recovery since the November OPEC meeting in Vienna, but their future direction is still unclear. The Gulf and wider Middle East continue to be the site of major global challenges with serious policy implications, not just for the states of the region but for the US, the EU, Asia and Russia. There is increasing agreement on the need for more effective collective responses. As yet the delivery of such responses is patchy. But the IISS Manama Dialogue remains the most important regional platform helping decision-makers in the region and beyond to reach this goal – through high-level discussions in plenary and special sessions, and the facilitation of bilateral contacts. We are again profoundly grateful to the Kingdom of Bahrain and its Foreign Ministry for their gracious and continued support, and to all government and nongovernment participants for their active contributions. Sir John Jenkins, KCMG LVO Executive Director, IISS–Middle East

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CHAPTER 1

Agenda

Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Minister of Defence, Germany; and Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

Agenda

Friday 9 December 2016 All day

Bilateral meetings between ministers and officials

19:00 – 20:00 SKY NEWS ARABIA OPENING TELEVISED PLENARY

US POLICY AND THE FUTURE OF MIDDLE EAST Chair: Fadila Souissi

Presenter, Sky News Arabia

HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud Chairman, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Saudi Arabia

General (Retd) David Petraeus

Chairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US

Ayad Allawi

Vice President, Iraq

Ellen Laipson

Distinguished Fellow and President Emeritus, Stimson Center, US; Member of the Council, IISS

20:00 – 21:00 OPENING RECEPTION – Grand Foyer 21:00 – 23:00 OPENING DINNER – Al Noor Ballroom Hosted by: HRH Prince Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa

Crown Prince of the Kingdom of Bahrain, Deputy Supreme Commander and First Deputy Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain

Opening remarks: Dr John Chipman

Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Keynote Speech: Boris Johnson

Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK Agenda

Saturday 10 December 2016 Unless otherwise stated all Plenary Sessions chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS 08:45 – 09:45 FIRST PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor Ballroom

US POLICY AND MIDDLE EAST STABILITY Dr Ashton Carter

Secretary of Defense, US

09:45 – 10:00 Break 10:00 – 11:30 SECOND PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor Ballroom

REGIONAL POWERS AND MIDDLE EAST STABILITY Ayad Allawi

Vice President, Iraq

Sameh Shoukry

Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt

Sh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

11:30 – 12:00 Break 12:00 – 13:30 THIRD PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor Ballroom

COMBATING EXTREMISM IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND BEYOND Dr Ursula von der Leyen

Minister of Defence, Germany

Jean-Yves Le Drian

Minister of Defence, France

Ng Eng Hen Minister for Defence, Singapore

13:30 – 15:30 PRIVATE LUNCH FOR DELEGATION LEADERS Trader Vic’s Restaurant

LUNCH FOR ALL OTHER DELEGATES Villa Gazebo, Ritz Carlton

15:30 – 17:00 FOURTH PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor Ballroom

WIDENING MIDDLE EASTERN SECURITY PARTNERSHIPS General (Retd) David Petraeus

Chairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US

Kentaro Sonoura

State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Japan

17:15 – 18:15 SPECIAL EVENT – Al Ghazal C

LAUNCH OF THE IISS DOSSIER ON MISSILEDEFENCE COOPERATION IN THE GULF

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

Sunday 11 December2015 09:30 – 11:00 SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSIONS – Al Ghazal Ballrooms Group I:

Stabilising and Rebuilding Yemen – Al Ghazal I Chair: Sir John Jenkins

Executive Director, IISS–Middle East

General Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar Vice President, Yemen

Crispin Blunt

Chair, Foreign Affairs Select Committee, House of Commons, UK

General Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani

Secretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

Group II: Defence Cooperation in the Gulf – Al Ghazal II Chair: General The Lord Richards of Herstmonceux

Senior Adviser for the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, IISS; former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK

Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach Chief of the Defence Staff, UK

Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan

Commander, US Naval Forces Central Command

Michael Elleman

Consulting Senior Fellow for Missile Defence, IISS-Americas

Group III: Conflict and Diplomacy in Syria – Al Ghazal C Chair: Emile Hokayem

Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS–Middle East

Ümit Yalçın

Under Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Turkey

Sigrid Kaag

Secretary-General’s Special Coordinator for Lebanon, UN

Xie Xiaoyan

Special Envoy on the Syrian Issue, China

Hadi Al Bahra

Former President, National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, Syria

Group IV: International Cooperation against Terrorism – Al Ghazal III Chair: Professor Toby Dodge

Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS; Director, Middle East Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science Agenda

General Joseph Votel

Commander, US Central Command

Philip Barton

Chair, Joint Intelligence Committee, UK

Falah Mustafa Bakir

Minister, Department of Foreign Relations, Kurdistan Regional Government, Iraq

11:00 – 11:30 Break 11:30 – 13:00 FIFTH PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor Ballroom

TOWARDS A NEW REGIONAL SECURITY ARCHITECTURE Dr Ahmed Aboul Gheit

Secretary General, League of Arab States

Sartaj Aziz

Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Pakistan

13:00 – 14:30 FAREWELL LUNCH FOR ALL DELEGATES – Villa Gazebo

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CHAPTER 2

Executive summary

Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

Executive summary

Among the most pressing questions for regional security preoccupying delegates at the IISS Manama Dialogue were the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, the fortunes and influence of ISIS, the emergence of Saudi Arabia as a more assertive power and the future of Saudiâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;Iranian relations. Looking further afield, the prospect of a new US administration and political turbulence in Europe threatened to up-end the existing global political order, and there were growing calls for economic reform and continuing pressure on global energy producers. These issues were all central to the scene-setting televised debate and the discussions that followed in the plenary discussions on Saturday and Sunday, and in special sessions on Sunday morning. The debate saw a lively exchange of views on the nature of the challenge from Iran, particularly in Iraq. Also discussed were the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the international agreement on Iranâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s nuclear programme, and possible United States responses after the recapture of Mosul. Saturday morning opened with an address by the outgoing US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, reviewing the current US position and achievements, and looking to the Executive summary

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 Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

future of collective security in the region. We followed with sessions on the role of other regional powers, collective global action against extremism and the possibility of wider security partnerships. The involvement in these debates of ministers from Singapore and Japan – as well as Europe and the Middle East – gave them added global relevance. The crowded special sessions gave particular attention to specific and urgent examples of the dialogue’s key themes. Topics covered included approaches to the stabilisation of Yemen, and the Syria crisis in light of the rapidly changing situation in Aleppo. The sessions also addressed defence cooperation in the Gulf after the JCPOA, with a new US president and Europe under pressure. Participants discussed wider international cooperation against terrorism, in a year featuring not only some highly effective and sustained responses to the threat, but also attempts by extremist groups to diversify and spread their activities and ensure against military defeat. IISS experts contributed to all these discussions. The Institute’s staff continue to produce high-quality analysis and research on all the issues covered, much of which was available to delegates. A new and comprehensive dossier on missile

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 defence in the Gulf was launched during the event, and there was a popular interactive display on Military Balance+ – a new online database that will enable users to make faster and

Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

better-informed defence decisions.

Keynote Speech ‘Britain is back East of Suez ... active in and deeply committed to the region.’ This was the strong message of friendship delivered by British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson in his opening address at the 2016 IISS Manama Dialogue. He went on to say: ‘This is not just about politics, not just about trade, not just about strategic support. This is about building on and intensifying old friendships. Britain has been part of [the Gulf] story for the last 200 years, and we will be with you for the centuries to come.’ Johnson’s trip to Bahrain followed visits by Prime Minister Theresa May and the Prince of Wales in the year marking the 200th anniversary of friendship between the United Kingdom and Bahrain. The Foreign Secretary described as a mistake Britain’s decision to disengage from the region in 1968 and made clear that shared interests – in political, economic and military terms – made close cooperaExecutive summary

tion more important than ever. In particular, the challenges of regional and global instability required multinational approaches, including a global effort to defeat ISIS. Other challenges in the region included relations with Iran, the security, political and humanitarian crisis in Yemen, and setting the basis for a political solution that would ensure lasting peace in Syria once ISIS was defeated. Importantly, and in spite of the UK’s growing military presence in the region, renewed military ties with local partners and a plan to spend £3 billion in military commitments over the coming decade, the Foreign Secretary was clear that military solutions alone would be insufficient. Instead, he argued for helping local leaders find local answers to the many social and economic challenges faced by the citizens of Gulf countries. He said young people, above all, needed ‘the prospect of an exciting economic future’ and, in this respect, the UK could work closely with regional allies to promote economic opportunities. Recalling his experiences as Mayor of London, Johnson discussed the impact of the Gulf on the capital, from ever growing investments by Gulf states and businesses to the large number of Gulf students choosing British universities. He also highlighted the UK’s own sales to the region, from cars to retail chains, representing an export market worth £20 billion per year. This made the region Britain’s greatest nonEU export market apart from the United States. With this in mind, and following Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, Johnson envisaged even stronger commercial relations with the region in the future, aided by the possibility of entering new free-trade deals with Gulf partners.

Sky News Arabia Television Debate Before the formal opening of the 12th IISS Manama Dialogue, delegates and selected speakers took part in a live television debate. Fadila Souissi of Sky News Arabia began by asking the panel how Donald Trump’s election victory would af18

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

fect the region. HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal, formerly a senior Saudi diplomat and director-general of the kingdom’s general intelligence directorate, noted the president-elect’s anti-Muslim statements but argued the region should wait to see how he acted once in office. Retired United States General David Petraeus concurred, while arguing that the lessons of the last 15 years pointed to the need for continued, sustained engagement. Ayad Allawi, the vice president of Iraq, expressed his hope that the next US administration would adopt a policy stance that relied less on the military to beat the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Dr Ellen Laipson, President Emeritus of the Stimson Center, predicted Trump would maintain greater continuity in office than his campaign rhetoric promised. This included adhering to the position that the root causes of regional mili-

Sky News Arabia Opening Televised Plenary (l–r): Ellen Laipson, Distinguished Fellow and President Emeritus, Stimson Center, US; Member of the Council, IISS; Ayad Allawi, Vice President, Iraq; General (Retd) David Petraeus, Chairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US; Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud, Chairman, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Saudi Arabia; and Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia

tancy had to be solved internally, not by external powers. She warned, however, of a possible dramatic change in US policy towards Iran and the international agreement concerning its nuclear programme. Embracing the theme of Iran, Prince Turki said the country had not established its credentials in the region as a peaceful Executive summary

nation set on reconciliation with its neighbours. He claimed that Iranian interference in the region was increasing and noted Tehran’s claims to have captured four Arab governments. Allawi stated that Iran had been exhausted by its intervention in other Middle Eastern states and was ready to negotiate, which created an opening for the new US administration. Laipson urged delegates not to exaggerate Iran’s capacities to threaten its neighbours, and suggested that Arab–Iranian trust could be built by cooperating on issues of common concern such as water management. That might in turn create the basis for talks on security matters, she said. Prince Turki rejected that idea, asking how he could cooperate with Iran while it facilitated slaughter in Syria. Allawi and Petraeus agreed on the importance of building a representative, responsible government for Nineveh province and Mosul once the battle for the city, now in the hands of ISIS, was won. Petraeus said that in the longer term, he was more concerned by the threat from politically connected militias in Iraq than by ISIS. Allawi and Petraeus also argued for a constructive US approach to Russia in the region. Petraeus said the incoming US president should recognise that the objective of preserving a united Syrian state was no longer tenable; the US objective now should be to halt the fighting, and in that regard it might be possible to find common ground with Russia’s interests. Allawi claimed that Russia was committed to crushing ISIS, despite limited evidence in the region for this assertion, and he called for deeper cooperation with Moscow. Laipson also noted the possibility of Trump reaching an understanding with Russia that would see US support for the Syrian opposition downgraded. Petraeus added that it was vital, however, to maintain support for opposition forces fighting the Islamic State. Yet while his fellow panellists seemed resigned to the possibility of Western states prioritising the fight against the Islamic State over the ouster of Syria’s president, Prince Turki said it was vital to defeat Bashar al-Assad as well as ISIS. 20

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 First Plenary Session: US Policy and Middle East Stability United States Secretary of Defense Ash Carter opened Satur-

Dr Ashton Carter, Secretary of Defense, US

day’s proceedings with a confident but sober speech. The confidence came in his assertion of steady but marked progress in destroying the strongholds in Iraq and Syria of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Carter said the seizure of Mosul and Raqqa by coalition forces, ‘the primary objective of our military campaign’, would ‘put ISIL on an irreversible path to lasting defeat’. He added that the progress was a result of US actions including consolidating the Iraq and Syria war efforts under a single, unified command, one of numerous recommendations made by Carter and approved by President Barack Obama. Carter said in the previous week the president had also authorised the deployment of approximately 200 new US personnel to Syria. Carter said this would ‘ensure the success of isolating Raqqa, generate sufficient local forces to seize Raqqa, and deny ISIL sanctuary beyond Raqqa’. But Carter’s tone was sober in acknowledging some tensions among anti-ISIS coalition forces. He said the US was first and foremost pursuing its own interests in the Middle East, which were not always the same as those of individual Executive summary

nations in the region. But he added that ‘more often than not, [interests] overlap or can be aligned’. Carter said this was important because, in the campaign against the Islamic State and elsewhere, lasting success would only be achieved if local forces secured territory and local governance took hold. Hence the US would focus on enabling local forces. Carter pointed out that the US has growing commitments in Europe and Asia, and said there were ‘imperfections’ in the response to ISIS from some partners in the Middle East. While he praised NATO countries and the Iraqi government, including the Kurdistan Regional Government, he said some regional powers had not performed to their full potential. Alluding to recent tensions between the Obama administration and Arab governments over such matters as the Syrian civil war and the nuclear deal with Iran, Carter added: ‘I would ask you to imagine what US military and defence leaders think when they have to listen to complaints sometimes that we should do more, when it’s plain to see that all too often, the ones complaining aren’t doing enough themselves.’ In the discussion that followed, Dr Ebtesam Al Ketbi, President of the Emirates Policy Center, argued that the US lacked a strategy for the period after the defeat of ISIS. IISS Council Chairman François Heisbourg asked Carter to reflect on lessons from President Obama’s ‘red-line crisis’ over Syria’s use of chemical weapons, suggesting this was the pivotal moment that led to a greater Russian role in the war. Carter went on to say that Arab countries needed to invest more in ground forces, suggesting that investment in air capabilities was already robust. He also argued that collective ballistic missile defence capabilities among Gulf Cooperation Council countries would ‘really make sense’. He denied the accusation that America was focused on tactics rather than strategy, but added there were limits to what the US could do. Regarding the red-line crisis, he countered that ‘many moments’ had brought the region to its current situation. 22

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 Donald Trump’s name went unspoken during Carter’s speech and the subsequent question and answer session, even

Ayad Allawi, Vice President, Iraq

though the billionaire was set to assume the US presidency the following month. But the outgoing defence secretary did appear to lay down some markers on the need for American forces to counter potential ‘Russian aggression and coercion, especially in Europe’. Carter also said Moscow had neither promoted political transition in Syria nor fought ISIS, but rather ‘inflamed the civil war and prolonged the suffering of the Syrian people’ – a very different assessment of Russian behaviour to Trump’s. And in a message that was probably intended for the new administration as well as regional partners, he insisted that the US ‘has interests here that it cannot walk away from’.

Second Plenary Session: Regional Powers and Middle East Stability In the second plenary session, Iraqi Vice President Ayad Allawi emphasised the nexus between stability and security, and outlined the need for united societies, rejecting groups that seek division, as well as independent judiciaries and action to comExecutive summary

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 Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt

bat poverty. Iraq has rich natural resources but has suffered from external interference, he said, and interventions from actors including Iran forced citizens to hide within their tribes. Allawi also lamented what he labelled the ‘fake Arab Spring’. He called for a new regional conference aimed at reconciliation. Iran would need to be a positive player in this, and states should plan for a true Arab Spring that reflected popular will and ensured stability, security and sustainable development. Sameh Shoukry, Egyptian Foreign Minister, said the Middle East was at a turbulent stage in its history and required clear guiding principles. These should include orderly change and addressing the rise of terrorism. He said the Arab Spring was well intentioned but undermined institutions of the nation-state, producing a vacuum that was filled by groups that employed terrorism. These groups should have been more representative and inclusive, he argued. Shoukry said the Israel–Palestine issue remained a top priority, and that solidarity among the region’s Arab states was vital. Finally Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, the host nation’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, reported on the 37th Gulf Cooperation Council summit held in Bahrain days earlier. The

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 event set a goal of building a common market in the region within ten years. Security and defence relationships are paramount, Sheikh Khalid said. Bahrain had also hosted the first

Sh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

ever Gulf Cooperation Council–United Kingdom (UK) summit, at which UK Prime Minister Theresa May expressed a commitment to the Gulf that was more than transactional. Sheikh Khalid decried the troubles that had befallen Iraq and Syria, and declared Turkey had been held back by problems in Syria. He said Iran, which used to be a bastion of stability, systematically sought to use every regional dispute to its advantage. He added that Iran’s doctrine of velayate-faqih, under which all Shi’ites are subject to the country’s supreme leader, must not be allowed to extend beyond its borders. He said Bahrain was seeking a security architecture for the region that included every country, but if Iran wanted to be part of the group it would need to abandon interference. Responding to questions, Shoukry said Egypt understood the special nature of its relations with Saudi Arabia, and press reports suggesting divergence and an Egyptian move toward Iran were incorrect. Egypt’s relations with Iran remained severed. The rumour that Egypt resold its French-built Mistral Executive summary

helicopter carriers to Russia was also false. Shoukry said the fight against terrorism in the Sinai was going well and Egyptian forces were capable of handling it without outside help. Egypt’s policy on the Syria crisis was not to support any side, but to recognise the will of the Syrian people. Allawi said Iraq welcomed the participation of other actors, except terrorists. He saw signs of Iraqis rejecting sectarianism, and believed that the issue was not divisions between Sunni and Shia but disenfranchisement. Iran’s intervention in other countries could not be accepted, but neither was it good to isolate the country. The nuclear accord with Iran should have been linked to security and stability in the region. He said that during the previous decade, the United States had not been a proactive player in the Middle East, turning a blind eye to Iran’s activities. America should understand the need to apply pressure, Allawi said. Sheikh Khalid agreed that it would be unwise for the US to rip up the nuclear accord, which would play into Iran’s hands and legitimise its misdeeds. As for Israel, it would be welcome in the region after it accepted Palestine as an independent state.

Third Plenary Session: Combating Extremism in the Middle East and Beyond In the third plenary session, three panellists proposed constructive steps to combat terrorism in the Middle East and around the world. Terrorism is ‘global in scope and regional in character,’ German Federal Minister of Defence Ursula von der Leyen said. She declared that the social and ideological dimensions of terrorism must be addressed alongside the aspects that could be fought by military means. Von der Leyen called on leaders of Islamic countries to promote the argument that Islam stands for peace and tolerance. She said that since terrorists had weaponised social media, ‘we must take up the fight in cyberspace’. Addressing the need to strike a balance between security and free speech, she urged her audi26

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 ence to tell authentic local stories that would dismantle the extremists’ lies and convince a global audience. Singapore’s Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen also

Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Minister of Defence, Germany

called for greater engagement with countries in the Middle East, to counter the ideology and propaganda of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. He welcomed the group’s loss of territory in the region, but feared its defeat in Iraq and Syria would heighten the threat in Southeast Asia. He explained that more than 1,000 Southeast Asian fighters currently in Iraq and Syria were ‘ready to create a caliphate’ in their region of origin. He proposed that in addition to existing regional cooperation, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) must intensify efforts to share intelligence. France’s Minister of Defence Jean-Yves Le Drian called on the international community to be resolute in its response to terrorism. He reminded the audience that terrorism’s ultimate objective was to ‘destabilise the state’, and that the growth of terrorist groups largely depended on the weakness of the state. That is why, he added, combating terrorism required concerted efforts but also adherence to international law. He insisted that ISIS’s religious dogmatism must be destroyed, Executive summary

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 Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore

and that this called for specific responses focusing on religious education. He praised efforts by the United Arab Emirates in this domain, remarking on the counter narrative campaign led by the Sawab Center. He said France had a similar initiative called ‘Stop-Djihadisme’, which had yielded promising results on the de-radicalisation front. Questions from the audience enriched the discussion. Suhail Al Gosaibi of the Bahrain Foundation for Dialogue pointed to the susceptibility of European youth to extreme groups, while Dr Ibtesam Al Ketbi from the UAE commented that extremism among young people was not a result of economic hardship, but caused by double standards in Western policies towards the region. He pointed to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and the destruction of Aleppo as examples. François Heisbourg of IISS said the West’s cooperation with Kurds fighting ISIS might in the future show the weakness of the Sykes–Picot Agreement. Von der Leyen noted that while ‘we admire the courage of the Kurds’, Germany believed that a unified Iraq was better for all its people, and Le Drian was hopeful that the dialogue between Iraq and Kurdish authorities would

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 prove constructive for the future. He also agreed with Dr Al Ketbi that economic deprivation did not explain terrorism, noting that French foreign fighters were often educated but

Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France

might have been susceptible to radicalisation. Drawing on Singapore’s experience in integrating people of different races and religions, Dr Ng said social solutions need not always conform to the ideals of Western democracies, and that Singapore’s harmonious diversity was premised on a policy of enforcing racial and religious quotas.

Fourth Plenary Session: Widening Middle Eastern Security Partnerships The fourth plenary session was opened by the State Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan, Kentaro Sonoura. He underscored the close relationship between the Middle East and East Asia, but suggested increasing globalisation raised the risk of security threats spreading. Sonoura argued that the connections between the two regions relied on dependable maritime transport – more than 50% of Middle East exports went to Asia, and nearly 40% of Middle East imports came from Asia. He said there Executive summary

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 Kentaro Sonoura, State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Japan

were common security problems, including nuclear proliferation. But he contrasted Iran’s recent acceptance of a nuclear deal with North Korea’s continued defiance over the issue. Sonoura said greater international pressure on North Korea, including from beyond the region, was needed. By the same token, Japan would continue to offer economic incentives for Iran to stick to its agreement. It would also encourage Iran to play a constructive regional role. The minister raised the issue of maritime security in the South and East China Seas, and efforts to change the status quo there. He said Japan would pursue non-military efforts to improve security in the Middle East through capacity-building and development aid in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. But he also emphasised particular Japanese contributions to maritime security efforts, including counter-piracy operations and other combined missions. Retired General David Petraeus, formerly the director of the CIA and head of United States Central Command, outlined four main objectives for wider regional partnering. These included maintaining the free flow of energy from the region (still a vital US national interest despite the country’s

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 increased energy self-sufficiency) and defeating terrorism. The list also included preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and countering what General Petraeus

General (Retd) David Petraeus, Chairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US

called ‘Iran’s malign activities’, which he said were increasing. Petraeus argued that, beyond counter-terrorism, partnering efforts should include maritime security and counterpiracy, counter-trafficking, and gradually knitting together defence and early warning capabilities. He emphasised the need for organisational, command and control, and intelligence architectures, and the need to turn strong bilateral relationships into multilateral ones. This had been happening for decades, he said, but only sporadically. US leadership through central command was an important facilitator, he argued, and the evolving threats showed the need to knit together partnerships both within the region and beyond, while the region itself remained of critical importance to the wider world. Petraeus was asked whether in previous remarks he had advocated an organised partition of Syria, and also what the US position on Iran would now be, while British MP Nadhim Zahawi asked how to pursue a political track in the aftermath Executive summary

of the battle for Mosul in Iraq. Sir John Jenkins, the session chair and executive director of IISS–Middle East, asked what the role of China would be, given its huge economic penetration in the region. In response, Sonoura re-emphasised Japan’s non-military role in capacity-building in areas vacated by the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Petraeus said it was not too late for a political solution in Syria, but time was running out. He added that rather than pursuing objectives that may not be achievable, the overriding goals should be defeating ISIS and al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, and stopping the bloodshed. On Iran, he said the long-term goal was preventing Iranian nuclear weaponisation. He agreed the importance of getting the political settlement in Mosul right, for the city and Iraq as a whole. Petraeus stressed the continued significance of American leadership, and the overwhelming capabilities of the US. But he said increasing Chinese interest and activity should come as no surprise. And after China’s special envoy to Syria, Xie Xiaoyan, objected to the fact that Sonoura had raised the issues of the South and East China Seas in the session, Petraeus suggested this underscored the need for further strategic dialogue.

Fifth Plenary Session: Towards a New Regional Security Architecture The concluding plenary session addressed the opportunities and challenges for a new collective security system in the Middle East. The Secretary General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, expressed his scepticism about the elaboration of a new regional system, given the unprecedented instability and division of the region. He said the lack of regional consensus was particularly salient in light of the crises in Syria, Iraq, Yemen or Libya but also on the Iran issue. The priority, he stressed, was not to reshape a security architecture but rather to promote dialogue, 32

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 discuss the principles of any future collective arrangements and to launch a Marshall Plan for the Middle East. Aboul Gheit said the ongoing ‘unbalance of power’ was

Dr Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary General, League of Arab States

not favourable to regional stability, which was dramatically affected by tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. He called on Iran to amend its expansionist policy and not attempt to dominate the entire Arab world. He also said the presence of non-Arab states (such as Iran, Israel and Turkey) should not undermine the Middle East’s Arab identity, and, more importantly, Shi’ites should not have the opportunity to ‘set up their own Arab league’. Aboul Gheit identified three conditions for regional stability. Firstly, the principle of state sovereignty should be respected. He blamed Iran for relying on ‘sects’ to destabilise the region. He called for a new Westphalia agreement, without any external interference and respecting the principles of democracy, good governance and the protection of minorities. Secondly, he warned against the death of the Sykes–Picot agreement and the attempts to change the historical Arab nation-states’ borders. Contesting the independence aspirations of some communities (including the Executive summary

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 Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Pakistan

Kurds), he mentioned decentralised systems as a possible solution that would protect communities while preserving the state structure. Thirdly, he insisted on the need to solve the ongoing Israeli–Arab conflict, which was still feeding injustice and extremism. He said the Israeli occupation was comparable to the Iranian occupation of the Middle East, and Israeli nuclear deterrence was a sign of double standards in the region. Pakistan’s Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz, stressed that a regional security architecture must be a collective design based on a comprehensive approach. He called for the containment of xenophobia and nationalism, and the adaptation of collective security measures to meet new challenges, in particular terrorism. Aziz argued that the success of the Pakistani counter-terrorist policy was thanks to multidimensional military operations, well-coordinated intelligence and strong support from political parties. Aziz praised the close relationships between Pakistan and Gulf Cooperation Council countries enhancing trade, economic migration and defence. He said Pakistan could play the role of a ‘balancer’ to enhance the Gulf’s security framework.

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Located at the crossroads of the Gulf–Asia route, the country enjoyed a strategic position that might be useful for the Gulf region in three ways. Firstly, Pakistan could share its experience in countering violent extremism. Secondly, it could be a mediator or a facilitator between Muslim countries. Thirdly,

(l–r): Sir John Jenkins, Executive Director, IISS–Middle East; and General Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar, Vice President, Yemen

it could contribute to the strengthening of economic relationships between Asia and the Gulf. Answering a question on Pakistan’s relationships with Iran and his country’s refusal to join the Saudi Arabia-led intervention in Yemen, Aziz explained that his country ‘has excellent relations with the Gulf, Iran is our neighbour, [and] a large percentage of our population is Shi’ites, so we are handling this relationship with Iran very delicately’.

Special Session 1: Stabilising and Rebuilding Yemen The first special session assessed a subject raised at various times over the weekend. Yemen’s strategic location and the humanitarian suffering in the country currently made its crisis important, said one speaker, while another participant indicated that the complexity of the situation in Yemen made it harder for policymakers to find solutions. Discussions Executive summary

(l–r): Crispin Blunt, Chair, Foreign Affairs Select Committee, House of Commons, UK; and General Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

focused on the humanitarian effects of the violence on Yemen’s population and the broader impact on the country’s infrastructure, and economic and political future, as well as the measures being taken at regional and international levels to alleviate human suffering. Recent Yemeni politics formed a backdrop to the session, with speakers tracing various national, regional and international political initiatives designed to end the fighting and arrive at a political solution; speakers also posited reasons for the failure of these initiatives to date. While the high level of international support for Yemen and the government of President Hadi was noted, the influence of certain outside actors was also highlighted, with Iran identified by one panellist as supplying weapons to Houthi rebels. One speaker praised the response to Houthi military moves against President Hadi in 2014 by Gulf Cooperation Council states, led by Saudi Arabia, as ‘an urgent and necessary intervention’. But regional states were also trying to put the political process back on track, with one panellist highlighting the draft constitution (created in Abu Dhabi) that would lead

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– one participant noted – to a federated Yemen of six regions. It was also important to consider ways of rebuilding Yemen’s security institutions, and to improve the transparency and accountability of aid. Its delivery would reduce instability, and could be achieved in a decentralised way, in coordination with the government and private sector. However, rebuilding and assistance were needed imme-

(l–r): General The Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, Senior Adviser for the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, IISS; former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK; and Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach, Chief of the Defence Staff, UK

diately – not at the end of the conflict. It was suggested this work could take place in specific areas as soon as they were free of violence. This would allow assistance to arrive quickly and also demonstrate the benefits of peace to the broader population; it could also improve stability and security.

Special Session 2: Defence Cooperation in the Gulf Despite recent progress, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries face obstacles addressing the region’s threats and security challenges. The special session on defence cooperation considered the aims of the GCC’s militaries to work more closely together, identifying areas of success and those where greater progress was required. Executive summary

(lâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;r): Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, Commander, US Naval Forces Central Command; and Michael Elleman, Consulting Senior Fellow for Missile Defence, IISS-Americas

The maritime domain was highlighted as providing a potential model for closer cooperation between GCC members and their partner nations. The Combined Maritime Forces provides three task forces covering counter-terrorism and counter-piracy roles, and brings together the GCC states and a wider coalition. Some 31 nations work together under the Combined Maritime Forces banner. Ballistic missile defence was suggested as another area ripe for immediate cooperation. The United States has long encouraged GCC members to work better together to counter and deter Iranâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s substantial conventionally armed ballistic missile arsenal. While GCC nations have invested in missile defence, their systems are structured at a national level, even though a regional sensor and missile interceptor architecture would be far more effective. The issue of command and control, a core element of ballistic missile defence and any effective military capability, was also the subject of discussion. While military leaders understand that efficient command and control is critical, concerns were raised that this was not sufficiently understood in the wider political community.

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Joint training and exercises were also suggested as a means of furthering cooperative ambitions, for example by building trust across national borders. Even in areas such as the maritime domain where closer cooperation was evident, other concerns remained. It was

(l–r): Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS– Middle East; and Ümit Yalçın, Under Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Turkey

claimed that GCC states continued to under-invest in their maritime forces structure.

Special Session 3: Conflict and Diplomacy in Syria This session assessed the state of the conflict in Syria and the prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. The military and political repercussions of Aleppo’s fall to government and allied forces were central to the discussion. It was agreed that a regime victory in Aleppo would not signal the end of the armed opposition, but the opening of a new, more complex chapter in the country’s civil war. Whether and how regional supporters of the rebellion would continue their support was of crucial importance. Participants stressed the major contribution of foreign fighters to the Assad military effort, notably Iranian-backed militias from Lebanon, Iraq and elsewhere. Speakers said that while Executive summary

(l–r): Sigrid Kaag, Secretary General’s Special Coordinator for Lebanon, UN; and Xie Xiaoyan, Special Envoy on the Syrian Issue, China; and Hadi Al Bahra, Former President, National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, Syria

international attention was currently focused on Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, it should also recognise the role played by the militias. Participants agreed on the urgent need for a ceasefire and United Nations humanitarian assistance, and on the importance of isolating and fighting UN-listed terrorist groups. However, they said the need to differentiate between legitimate rebel and terrorist groups was paramount to any international effort. Scepticism over Russia’s claims to be fighting ISIS and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham abounded, but Russia’s intervention made it the central actor in this conflict. Differences between Iran and Russia could be exploited in the future, participants thought, but their alignment seemed strong and enduring. The regional consequences of the conflict were also highlighted, notably the security, political and financial costs shouldered by Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. It was recommended that the UN adopt a new approach to solving the conflict, with the organisation’s incoming secretary-general leading the mediation himself. It was widely agreed that US–Russian geostrategic agreement was required for any real progress to take place, but the likely substance

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and parameters of such an understanding were unclear, in part because of the unpredictability of the incoming Trump administration. A political solution remained the only viable way to end the conflict, although the key parties differed on what such a solution would contain. But they agreed only a political deal would allow for the return of refugees and a programme of international reconstruction assistance.

(l–r): Professor Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS; Director, Middle East Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science; and General Joseph Votel, Commander, US Central Command

Special Session 4: International Cooperation Against Terrorism The fourth special session considered the challenges to improving intelligence sharing and, more broadly, international interstate cooperation in the fight against terror. Participants agreed that a common definition of ‘terrorism’ was needed in order to identify the threat and its future. Then it would be important to focus on factors explaining the emergence of the threat rather than on specific groups. In cooperating, participants thought states should try to reduce ungoverned or poorly governed spaces in countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and Afghanistan, and build a counter-narrative against the ideology used by terrorist Executive summary

(l–r): Philip Barton, Chair, Joint Intelligence Committee, UK; and Falah Mustafa Bakir, Minister, Department of Foreign Relations, Kurdistan Regional Government, Iraq

recruiters. Terror groups’ ability to use the internet as a multifunctional tool, inspiring and directing supporters, was identified as a particular challenge. Therefore, states would need to invest in long-term strategies taking into account the need to be consistent, patient and to provide resources. Five to six years previously the focus had been on Afghanistan, but attention had then shifted to Syria and the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Nevertheless, that does not mean that the risk of international terrorism has disappeared from Afghanistan. Participants also discussed the issue of information sharing between government agencies: there was no global list of individuals fighting for ISIS in Syria. The United States’ position is that the training of counterterrorist forces is key to improving the capability of its allies and local forces, who can lead the battle against terrorism at local and regional levels. Indeed, terrorism is a regional problem and as such there is only a regional solution. Regarding the ideological dimension of the fight against terrorism, all speakers stressed education as the key element in responding to the brainwashing of young people by terror groups such as ISIS.

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12TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 9â&#x20AC;&#x201C;11 DECEMBER 2016

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CHAPTER 3

Press coverage Selected IISS publications

General Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar, Vice President, Yemen; and General Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

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BBC 10 December 2016

‘Boris Johnson: ‘Profound concern’ for people of Yemen’ Boris Johnson has spoken of his “profound concern” for people in Yemen and said that “force alone” will not bring stability to the country. But the foreign secretary said he understood the Saudi need to be “secure from bombardment” from Yemen. He was speaking in Bahrain a day after being rebuked by Downing Street for accusing Saudi Arabia of engaging in “proxy wars” in the region. Mr Johnson also said Brexit would allow UK free trade deals in the Gulf. The foreign secretary made his latest speech at the Institute for Strategic Studies Manama Dialogue on

the first leg of his tour of the Middle East. He made no mention of an appearance in Italy the previous week, where he accused the UK’s closest ally in the region, Saudi Arabia, of “puppeteering and playing proxy wars” - as published by The Guardian. At the event he said: “There are politicians who are twisting and abusing religion and different strains of the same religion in order to further their own political objectives. “That’s one of the biggest political problems in the whole region. And the tragedy for me - and that’s why you have these proxy wars being fought the whole time in that area - is that there is not strong enough leadership in the countries themselves.” The prime minister’s spokeswoman said after the Rome speech that Mr Johnson’s views did not represent the government’s position but insisted that

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Theresa May had “full confidence” in her colleague. In Friday’s address, Mr Johnson said: “I of course understand Saudi concerns about security and the paramount importance of Saudi Arabia securing itself from bombardment by the Houthis” - a reference to the former rebel movement which now controls parts of Yemen including the capital, Sanaa. He added: “But I must also share my profound concerns, which I’m sure is universal in this room, about the present suffering of the people of Yemen. “I think we can all agree on this key point, that force alone will not bring about a stable Yemen, and that’s why we in London have been working so hard with all our partners to drive that political process forwards.” Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson has defended Mr Johnson’s previous comments on the region. She told BBC Radio 4’s The Westminster Hour: “I think Boris Johnson was absolutely right about what he said about proxy wars, and about Saudi and about Iran. “And I agree with his analysis. Now, that might not be the position of the UK Government, but guess what - I am not in the UK Government, and I think he was right.” On Saturday, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called on Mr Johnson to “be brave enough” to back opposition calls to halt arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding, told the BBC Mr Johnson’s comments were

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“by no means the harshest criticism one hears of Saudi Arabia”. He said: “The question is can he now - going out to the Gulf, where we have these great historic relations, very important commercial ones - can he keep those ties warm following the prime minister’s recent visit? “He probably will do, because I don’t think these comments will be too controversial.” But Lord Powell, who advised former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher on foreign affairs, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I don’t think it is fair to describe the Saudi policy as ‘proxy wars’. “The Saudis have been very supportive of all efforts against terrorism in the region, against [Syrian] President Assad, against the spread of Iranian influence, and they’re long-standing allies, so I think to describe them just as ‘proxy wars’ is to rather cheapen the very real contribution that they make.” Turning to Syria in his speech, Mr Johnson said a capture of all of Aleppo by government forces would “assuredly be a victory that turns to ashes,” because of the hatred felt by millions towards President Bashar al-Assad. “Remember that two-thirds of Syria is currently outside Assad’s control and he is still besieging 30 other areas comprising 571,000 poor, tormented inhabitants,” he said. “Surely to goodness there can be no lasting peace in Syria if that peace is simply re-imposed by a man who has engendered such hatred among millions of his own people.”

The foreign secretary also used the speech to reassure the region of the opportunities the UK leaving the European Union will bring when it comes to Free Trade. “Now is the time for my country to seize the opportunity of leaving the EU,” he said. “We will be there to work for European peace and stability. We’ll still be there to stick up for our friends and partners in the Gulf... (where) for the first time since the 1970s we will additionally be able to do free trade deals.” Mr Johnson also said that after 12 years of negotiating the nuclear deal with Iran, partners “must build on this foundation” to build a “better relationship” with Tehran. © 2016, BBC Reprinted with permission

The Straits Times 10 December 2016

‘Coalition against ISIS warn of threat posed by returning fighters at Manama Dialogue’ The United States is sending extra troops to Syria in a joint effort to drive terror group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) out of its stronghold of Raqqa, Defence Secretary Ashton Carter told a security conference in Bahrain on Saturday (Dec 10). The additional 200 US troops, including special forces, will join 300 deployed

alongside Arab and Kurdish fighters, who have advanced to within 25km of the de facto capital of ISIS’ self-declared caliphate. Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Syrian Democratic Forces said it will “begin phase two of the campaign, which aims to liberate territory west of Raqqa and isolate the city,” wire agency AFP reported. A US-led coalition has been providing support and training to the fight against ISIS, and the spokesman said coordination with the coalition will be “stronger and more effective during the second phase” Dr Carter was speaking at the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, where officials took stock of the fight against extremism. But defence ministers speaking at the forum also gave a sobering assessment of the global threat, warning that thousands of returning terrorists could slip home undetected and pose a threat to their societies. Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen pointed out that since the international coalition - of which Singapore is part - began operations in August 2014, ISIS has lost more than half its territory in Iraq and a quarter in Syria. “Paradoxically, the defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria will likely worsen the threat in Southeast Asia, my region. We expect the returning fighters from Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and a few from Singapore, who are now in Iraq and Syria, will likely return to continue their violent plots at home,” he said.

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At least 1,000 fighters from Southeast Asia have travelled to join ISIS. Officials also note that supporters pledging loyalty to ISIS have set up bases in the southern Philippines. Dr Ng called on countries to step up efforts to combine resources, share intelligence, and build trust among agencies across borders. He cited joint patrols by Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines to deter piracy and terrorism in the Sulu Sea, which have traditionally been used by terrorists for illegal movement of weapons and people. Singapore has offered the Information Fusion Centre of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) to provide maritime information, and worked alongside key partners to organise regular exercises. Dr Ng also stressed that the battle against extremism is, at its heart, an ideological one. He cited the example of a 17-year-old student in Singapore who was radicalised by pro-ISIS material online in July, and was detected after friends tipped off the authorities. Religious scholars are now counselling him. “In Singapore, our de-radicalisation programmes are successful, and we must counteract ISIS’ propaganda before more young lives are blighted,” Dr Ng said. Earlier this month, Home Affairs Minister K. Shanmugam said the threat of a terror attack in the region is greater than it was last year. On Friday, Dr Ng was in Kuwait to visit SAF personnel supporting the counter-ISIS coalition at Combined Joint Task Force Headquarters.

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The 11-man Imagery Analysis Team turns raw images into intelligence products. In Bahrain on Saturday, he called on the country’s Crown Prince Salman Hamad Al Khalifa and Prime Minister Khalifa Salman Al Khalifa. He also met defence and foreign ministers and officials of several Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. © 2016, The Straits Times Reprinted with permission

Bahrain News Agency 8 December 2016

‘Manama Dialogue platform to exchange experiences’ Manama: The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, affirmed that the Manama Dialogue, which opens its 12th session tomorrow (Friday), organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in cooperation with the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), from 9 to 11 December, will provide an important platform for the convergence of ideas and the exchange of views among decision makers and security leaders to reach a comprehensive vision and framework capable of facing various challenges in the region as well as establish a roadmap to resolve its crisis, in accordance to the current situation. He pointed out that the Kingdom of Bahrain is keen to continue hosting

the Manama Dialogue, which reflects its policy based on bolstering relations with various countries across the world, founded on mutual respect and joint interest as well as backing all regional and international efforts, and in solidarity with all initiatives directed to the consolidation of peace and security, which is a prerequisite for promoting economic and social development of all peoples of the region. Shaikh Khalid affirmed his confidence that participants in the Manama Dialogue will be able to expand cooperation opportunities, resolve the causes of conflict and tension in the region, propose just and peaceful solutions to long-standing problems that required consolidated efforts to resolve them and boost region towards a more stable and secure phase, where everyone lives in peace and can achieve their aspirations for a prosperous future for coming generations. (MOFA) © 2016, Bahrain News Agency Reprinted with permission

Arab News 10 December 2016

‘We won’t let Iran take region in wrong direction: Bahrain’ MANAMA: US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said yesterday while speaking about Middle East stability and US policy at the 12th security summit, that currently there are over 58,000 US troops in the Middle East, including

5,000 troops on the ground in Syria and Iraq. Local forces are 15 miles from Raqqa and the United States will deploy an additional 200 forces to ensure ISIS does not retake the area. Carter added that the efforts to limit ISIS access to its economical and logistical resources have been a success thus far. The US secretary of defense also added that the United States is developing an air defense system to counter Iran’s capabilities. He added that the department of defense is the best security partner to the Middle East and that it has interests that it can’t walk away from. “Mutual interest requires mutual commitments,” said Carter. Sheik Khalid bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa, minister of foreign affairs of Bahrain, said that we want Iran to be part of the regional security group. “We don’t want Iran to go in the wrong direction and take the region in the wrong direction,” added the foreign minister. Speaking about absence of an Iranian delegation, Sheik Khalid Al-Khalifa said, “We always issue invitations to Iran to attend the IISS dialogue but they choose not to come.” He added that they are welcome to engage in dialogue, but trust is needed. The minister added that fighting terrorists and militias are vital to achieve stability and that only representative governments should be allowed to take control. Sameh Shoukry, the Egyptian foreign minister, said that achieving orderly change must be a priority, and that unresponsive states have fallen

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to the aspirations of their people. The Egyptian foreign minister added that Saudi-Egyptian ties are clear from the Egyptian side and that there is a special nature to this relationship. He added that people should not take to heart what is being said by the media and their exaggeration. Vice President of Iraq Ayad Allawi revealed that since 2003, there has been a gap that has left his country’s civil infrastructure vulnerable, and that we are witnessing the same in Syria, which is now a victim to external manipulation. He added that the issue in Iraq is not about Sunni or Shia; it is about the disenfranchisement of key segments in the population. Referring to Iran, Dr. Allawi said that he is opposed to war with neighboring countries, but there is a drastic need for security. “We want Iran to be part of the peace and security club of the region,” added the Iraqi Vice president. The Defense Minister for Singapore Dr. Ng Eng Hen spoke on combating extremism and stated that there is a clear threat of terrorism in South East Asia and the source of extremism must be tackled. Dr. Ng also added that there are South East Asian fighters in the Middle East that want to create an ISIS-like caliphate when they return home. He said that combating extremism is partly ideological, and that behind every statistic are shattered lives and torn families. The defense minister also said that the war against ISIS must be fought on an ideological level with Muslim countries taking the lead.

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On her part the German Defense Minister Ursula von Der Leyen stressed that extremism is global in scope and regional in character. She also said that extremism has social and ideological dimensions that tell lies about Islam, and is poisoning societies, as well as stirring up Islamophobia in the West. She also stated that social media has been used as a weapon and that we must fight back with information to counter cyber propaganda. French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that like every nation gathered here, France has endured the impact of extremism on its own soil, and that France answered Iraq’s call for assistance in combating ISIS in 2014 by sending 4,000 servicemen to join the coalition forces. During yesterday’s final session regarding widening Middle Eastern security partnerships, retired General David Petraeus said the lack of inclusion in government in post-2003 Iraq sowed the seeds for today’s extremist groups. He added that the US military resources dwarf those of all other nations which is the reason the US has to lead the efforts to counter terrorism. Japanese State Minister of Foreign Affairs Kentaro Sonoura conveyed that he wants to promote a non-nuclear reintegration for Iran into the international community. Today will mark the final day for the security summit with closed delegate meetings pertaining to efforts for security sustainability in the region. © 2016, Arab News Reprinted with permission

Gulf News 9 December 2016

‘Conflicts in Syria, Iraq top Bahrain security conference.’ Manama: The conflicts ravaging Syria and Iraq will top the agenda of a security conference in Bahrain that will focus on instability in Libya and Yemen, the menace of violent extremism, and the regional security architecture. The future of US policy, one month after the presidential elections, as well as European and Asian engagements in the region will also be at the centre of the discussions of the 12th edition of the Manama Dialogue. The steadily-growing relations between the GCC and Asia will also rank high on the agenda of Manama Dialogue 12. The conference, co-organised by Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), will follow the same format as the previous ones, with an opening speech on Friday evening and keynote speeches and sessions on Saturday and Sunday. British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson on his first visit to Bahrain since he was appointed in July is among those addressing the conference. UK government’s official Arabic spokesperson Edwin Samuel said the participation of Johnson in Manama Dialogue 12 “reflects British commitment to protecting the GCC security

and strengthening trade and economic relations with member states.” Bahrain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Shaikh Khalid Bin Ahmad Al Khalifa said the Manama Dialogue would provide an important platform for the convergence of ideas and the exchange of views among decision makers and security leaders to reach a comprehensive vision and framework capable of facing various challenges in the region as well as establish a road map to resolve its crisis, in accordance to the current situation. “The Kingdom of Bahrain is keen to continue hosting the Manama Dialogue, which reflects its policy based on bolstering relations with various countries across the world, founded on mutual respect and joint interest as well as backing all regional and international efforts, and in solidarity with all initiatives directed to the consolidation of peace and security, which is a prerequisite for promoting economic and social development of all peoples of the region,” Shaikh Khalid said. © 2016, Gulf News Reprinted with permission

Reuters 9 December 2016

‘Johnson courts Gulf after Saudi comments draw putdown’ Britain’s exit from the European Union will mean it can forge free trade deals with Gulf Arab allies, foreign secretary

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Boris Johnson said on Friday in a speech also heralding closer defence ties to the conservative monarchies. Johnson was speaking at a conference in Bahrain a day after footage was published of him accusing Saudi Arabia, an important ally for Britain, and Iran of stoking proxy wars across the Middle East. Johnson, known for a tendency to go off-script, said in Rome last week that the absence of real leadership in the Middle East had allowed people to twist religion and engage in proxy wars. Johnson on Friday made no direct reference to those remarks, which Prime Minister Theresa May’s spokeswoman said did not reflect actual policy. He instead portrayed a Britain readier than ever to defend, and trade with, its energy-rich Gulf friends. “Any crisis in the Gulf is a crisis for Britain from day one. Your security is our security,” he told security chiefs at the Manama Dialogue conference, underlining a message May presented at a Gulf Arab summit earlier in the week. Britain and the six monarchies of the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council said in a joint communique at that summit that they intended to build on trade that stood at 30 billion pounds in 2015, and work to remove barriers to investment. Johnson said Britain’s decision to leave the European Union would open fresh opportunities. “We’ll still be there to stick up for our friends and partners in the Gulf ... But now for the first time since the 1970s we will additionally be able to do free trade deals and we’ll be able to build on the

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extraordinary commercial relationships that already exist between the UK and the Gulf.” Britain has 1,500 military personnel and seven warships in the region - a force Johnson said was larger than any other Western navy in the area apart from the United States. Britain’s close ties with the Gulf States has drawn concern from rights groups, particularly over Saudi air strikes in Yemen which have killed hundreds of civilians. British military personnel have been involved with advising the Saudi forces as they lead an Arab military coalition against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen’s civil war. Johnson lamented as a mistake Britain’s 1968 decision to shut its Gulf military bases, which had helped anchor its global empire for more than a century, and said Britain now sought to restore the influence he suggested it had lost in the decades since. “Britain is back east of Suez, not as the greatest military power on earth ... but as a nation that is active in and deeply committed to the region.” © 2016, Reuters Reprinted with permission

Deutsche Welle/DPA 10 December 2016

‘Von der Leyen: Mit Bildung gegen den IS’ Die deutsche Verteidigungsministerin wirbt dafür, den Kampf gegen die

IS-Dschihadisten auf eine breitere Basis zu stellen. Wichtige Komponenten hierbei: die freie Presse und die Meinungsfreiheit. Die Bekämpfung der Terrororganisation “Islamischer Staat” (IS) darf nach den Worten von Verteidigungsministerin Ursula von der Leyen nicht nur unter dem militärischen Aspekt gesehen werden. “Natürlich muss der Terror mit militärischen Mitteln bekämpft werden”, sagte sie bei der Sicherheitskonferenz im Golfstaat Bahrain. Aber der Kampf gegen den IS habe auch eine ideologische und eine soziale Komponente. Die Terrororganisation finde ihre Anhänger vor allem unter denjenigen, die sich sozial ausgegrenzt fühlten, erläuterte die deutsche Ministerin in Manama. Um das zu ändern, müssten Bildungschancen verbessert werden. “Die Koalition gegen den Terror muss durch eine Koalition für Bildung ergänzt werden”, forderte sie. “Hoffnung und Chancen anbieten” An die Regierungen der islamischen Welt appellierte von der Leyen, der IS-Propaganda im Internet seriöse Informationen entgegenzustellen. “Wir haben einen entscheidenden Partner in diesem Kampf, und das sind die freie Presse und die Meinungsfreiheit”, machte sie deutlich. In Golfstaaten wie Saudi-Arabien ist die Meinungsfreiheit stark eingeschränkt. Von der Leyen fasste ihren Vorstoß mit den Worten zusammen: “Um den Krieg zu gewinnen, müssen wir das Internet dominieren. Aber um Frieden zu

gewinnen, müssen wir Hoffnung und Chancen anbieten.” 200 weitere US-Soldaten nach Syrien Die USA setzen im Kampf gegen die IS-Dschihadisten auf Spezialeinheiten. Verteidigungsminister Ashton Carter kündigte bei den Beratungen in Manama an, die US-Regierung werde weitere 200 Soldaten nach Syrien verlegen. Die Sonderkräfte, Ausbilder, Militärberater und Sprengstoffexperten sollen die Rebellengruppen bei der Rückeroberung der syrischen IS-Hochburg Al-Rakka unterstützen. Die USA haben bereits 300 Spezialkräfte in Syrien stationiert. Der Pentagonchef bezeichnete die Entsendung des US-Kontingents als weiteren wichtigen Schritt, um “unsere Partner in die Lage zu versetzen, dem ‘Islamischen Staat’ (IS) eine bleibende Niederlage zuzufügen”. Nach seinen Angaben sind die “Oppositionstruppen” nur noch 15 Kilometer von Al-Rakka entfernt. Vor gut vier Wochen hatten die kurdisch dominierte Rebellengruppe “Demokratische Syrische Kräfte” (SDF) und die kurdischen Volksschutzeinheiten (YPG) mit Luftunterstützung der von den USA geführten Militärkoalition ihre Offensive zur Rückeroberung Al-Rakkas gestartet. YPG und SDF sind die wichtigsten Verbündeten des Westens im Kampf gegen die sunnitischen IS-Extremisten. Zufrieden zeigte sich Carter auch mit der Offensive gegen den IS in seiner irakischen Hochburg Mossul. “Es ist eine komplexe Mission, die einige Zeit dauern wird, aber ich bin zuversicht-

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lich, dass die Tage des IS in Mossul gezählt sind”, meinte er weiter. Die Tagung im Golfstaat Bahrain befasst sich mit den Konflikten im Nahen und Mittleren Osten. Es ist das größte und wichtigste Dialogforum für Sicherheitspolitik in der Region. © 2016, Deutsche Welle/DPA Reprinted with permission

AFP 10 December 2016

‘Pentagon chief announces 200 more US troops for Syria’ Washington will send another 200 troops to Syria to help an alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters seize the Islamic State group bastion of Raqa, Defence Secretary Ashton Carter said on Saturday. They will join 300 US special forces troops already deployed in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces alliance in the drive on the jihadist stronghold it launched on November 5. The operation coincides with a vast US-backed offensive to retake Iraq’s second city of Mosul from the jihadists, forming a twin-pronged campaign intended to deliver a knockout blow to the “caliphate” they declared across Iraq and Syria in 2014. The two cities are the last major urban centres under IS control after the jihadists suffered a string of territorial losses in both countries over the past year.

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

“I can tell you today that the United States will deploy approximately 200 additional US forces in Syria,” the Pentagon chief told Gulf policymakers in the Bahraini capital. He told the Manama Dialogue security forum that the troop reinforcements will include bomb disposal experts and trainers as well as special forces personnel. Car bombs and elaborate networks of booby traps and mines have been the jihadists’ favoured weapons as they battle to defend what remains of their “caliphate” . “We’re now helping tens of thousands of local Syrian forces to isolate Raqa,” from which they are only about 25 kilometres (15 miles), Carter said. Raqa, which has also served as a hub for jihadists plotting attacks abroad, is being isolated according to plan, he added. ‘Complex mission’ The US-backed offensive has been complicated by the deep hostility to the SDF of Turkey, a NATO ally and Syria’s neighbour. Ankara regards the alliance’s most powerful military component, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), as an arm of the outlawed rebel Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged a deadly insurgency in southeastern Turkey for three decades. The alliance controls a large swathe of northeastern Syria along the Turkish border as well as a smaller enclave in the northwest. After a series of advances that looked

set to join up the two areas of control, the Turkish army entered Syria in August in an operation it said was aimed at both IS and the YPG. Turkish troops have since attacked Kurdish forces multiple times even as they have suffered mounting losses at the hands of IS. US defence officials announced on Thursday that they were brokering talks between the two sides in a bid to prevent any further conflict between them disrupting the campaign against IS. “This week, we’re facilitating joint discussions with Turkey, the SDF and other coalition partners to promote deescalation in the area,” said Colonel John Dorrian, spokesman for the US-led coalition battling IS. The Pentagon chief said that with the offensives against Mosul and Raqa, the coalition had reached “a critical milestone” in its campaign against IS. Iraqi forces are battling jihadists deep inside Mosul, edging closer to the River Tigris that divides the city. But seven weeks into the offensive, they still control barely half of its eastern side . “This is a complex mission that will take time to accomplish but I’m confident that ISIL’s days in Mosul are numbered,” Carter said, using an alternate acronym for the jihadist group. He warned it was unclear what form IS would take after its eventual defeat in Iraq and Syria. “We must be ready for anything,” he said. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have all carried out air

strikes against IS in Syria, and Jordan has done so in both Iraq and Syria. But Carter said there had been “some imperfections” in the regional response to the jihadists. “Some of the regional powers here in the Middle East have not lived up to the full potential one would expect”, he said, without singling out any country. They could do more politically and economically, he said. © 2016, AFP Reprinted with permission

Associated Press 10 December 2016

‘US sending 200 more troops to Syria to battle ISIS.’ MANAMA, Bahrain — U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Saturday that as many as 200 more American troops are being sent to Syria to help Kurdish and Arab fighters capture the Islamic State group’s key stronghold of Raqqa. The extra troops will include special operations forces and are in addition to 300 U.S. troops already authorized for the effort to recruit, organize, train and advise local Syrian forces to combat IS. Addressing a security conference in Bahrain, Carter also took gentle jabs at U.S. Middle East partners for failing to provide more military muscle in the broader campaign to defeat IS and counter extremism. Without mentioning any by name, Carter suggested the U.S. has been the

Press coverage

target of disingenuous criticism from “regional powers here in the Middle East” for not doing more to help fight extremism. “I would ask you to imagine what U.S. military and defense leaders think when they have to listen to complaints sometimes that we should do more, when it’s plain to see that all too often, the ones complaining aren’t doing enough themselves,” he said. He said it is not unreasonable for Washington to expect regional powers who oppose extremism in the Middle East to do more to help fight it, “particularly in the political and economic aspects of the campaign.” Carter noted that many Sunni-led Gulf countries have expressed concern about the spread of Iranian influence in the region. “The fact is, if countries in the region are worried about Iran’s destabilizing activities – a concern the United States shares – they need to get in the game. That means getting serious about starting to partner more with each other, and investing in the right capabilities for the threat.” Carter said the 200 extra troops going to Syria will help local forces in their anticipated push to retake Raqqa, the de facto capital of the extremist group’s self-styled caliphate, and to deny sanctuary to IS after Raqqa is captured. He said President Barack Obama approved the troop additions last week. “These uniquely skilled operators will join the 300 U.S. special operations forces already in Syria, to continue organizing, training, equipping, and oth-

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

erwise enabling capable, motivated, local forces to take the fight to ISIL,” Carter said in his address to the IISS Manama Dialogues in the Bahraini capital, using an alternative acronym for IS. “By combining our capabilities with those of our local partners, we’ve been squeezing ISIL by applying simultaneous pressure from all sides and across domains, through a series of deliberate actions to continue to build momentum,” he said. The military push is complicated by the predominant role played by local Kurdish fighters, who are the most effective U.S. partner against IS in Syria but are viewed by Turkey — a key U.S. ally — as a terrorist threat. A senior defense official said the troop boost announced by Carter will give the U.S. extra capability to train Arab volunteers who are joining the Raqqa push but are not well trained or equipped. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of internal Pentagon planning. © 2016, Associated Press Reprinted with permission

Le Figaro 10 December 2016

L’accord sur le nucléaire iranien possède des “inconvénients” (Petraeus) L’accord international tendant à freiner les ambitions nucléaires de l’Iran contient

des éléments “très préoccupants”, a déclaré samedi le général à la retraite David Petraeus, pressenti pour devenir secrétaire d’Etat. L’accord, conclu l’an dernier après des années de négociations entre les grandes puissances et l’Iran, est entré en vigueur en janvier. Il prévoit une levée progressive des sanctions frappant l’Iran en échange d’un strict encadrement de son programme nucléaire à des fins uniquement civiles. Téhéran avait nié vouloir se doter de l’arme atomique. “Il y a quelques inconvénients significatifs qui devraient être, pour nous, une source de préoccupantion”, a déclaré Petraeus devant les participants au forum “Manama Dialogue” sur la sécurité régionale, réuni dans la capitale bahreïnie. Il a cité que l’accord était valable pour 10 à 15 ans et qu’il donnait à l’Iran l’accès à des milliards de dollars d’avoirs gelés auparavant. Cet ancien directeur de la CIA contraint à la démission a été cité comme l’un des candidats pressentis pour diriger la diplomatie américaine dans l’adminstration de Donald Trump.

Dans sa campagne électorale, Trump avait promis de déchirer l’accord sur le nucléaire iranien une fois qu’il aura pris ses fonctions à la Maison blanche. Il a qualifié le document du “pire accord jamais négocié”. Tout en étant réservé sur l’accord, Petraeus a reconnu que le texte contenait “quelques éléments positifs” car il a notamment permis de freiner la course de l’Iran vers l’arme nucléaire. L’Arabie saoudite et les autres monarchies sunnite du Golfe redoutent que l’accord nucléaire n’aide l’Iran chiites à élargir son influence et multiplier ses “interférences” dans les pays arabes. Prestigieux chef militaire, crédité notamment pour son rôle dans le redressement de la situation en Irak à partir de 2007, David Petraeus avait été nommé par Barack Obama directeur de la CIA. Mais il avait dû quitter son poste après la découverte par le FBI qu’il avait transmis des documents secrets à sa maîtresse et biographe Paula Broadwell. © 2016, Le Figaro Reprinted with permission

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Selected IISS publications

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, the Institute’s bimonthly journal, is a leading forum for analysis and debate of international and strategic affairs. Recent articles of interest include:

Ahram, Ariel I. and Ellen Lust, ‘The Decline and Fall of the Arab State’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 2, April–May 2016, pp. 7–34.

Lahoud, Nelly, ‘Can Women Be Soldiers of the Islamic State?’, Survival, vol. 59, no. 1, February–March 2017, pp. 61–78.

Gaub, Florence, ‘The Cult of ISIS’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 1, February– March 2016, pp. 113–30.

Hokayem, Emile and David B. Roberts, ‘The War in Yemen’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 6, December–January 2016, pp. 157–86. Mousavian, Seyed Hossein, ‘EU–Iran Relations After Brexit’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 5, October–November 2016, pp. 83–94. Hecht, Eado and Eitan Shamir, ‘The Case for Israeli Ground Forces’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 5, October– November 2016, pp. 123–48. Chivvis, Christopher S., ‘Countering the Islamic State in Libya’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 4, August–September 2016, pp. 113–30.

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

Larrabee, F. Stephen, ‘Turkey and the Changing Dynamics of the Kurdish Issue’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 2, April– May 2016, pp. 67–73.

Fishman, Ben, ‘Defining ISIS’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 1, February–March 2016, pp. 179–88. Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Iran: A Good Deal’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October– November 2015, pp. 47–52. Moore, Thomas C., ‘Iran: NonProliferation Overshadowed’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October– November 2015, pp. 53–8. Avis Bohlen, ‘Iran: An Opening for Diplomacy?’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 59–66. Tertrais, Bruno, ‘Iran: An Experiment in Strategic Risk-Taking’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 67–73.

Hanna, Michael Wahid, and Kaye, Dalia Dassa, ‘The Limits of Iranian Power’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October– November 2015, pp. 173–98.

Lister, Charles, ‘Assessing Syria’s Jihad’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 87–112.

Fishman, Ben, ‘Could Libya’s Decline Have Been Predicted?’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 199–208.

Barkey, Henri J., ‘Turkey’s Syria Predicament’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 113–34.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the Nuclear Rumour Mill’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 4, August– September 2015, pp. 105–8.

Dodge, Toby, ‘Can Iraq Be Saved?’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 5, October– November 2014, pp. 7–20.

Scheipers, Sibylle, ‘Auxiliaries at War in the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 4, August–September 2015, pp. 121–38. Fromson, James, and Simon, Steven, ‘ISIS: The Dubious Paradise of Apocalypse Now’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 3, June–July 2015, pp. 7–56. Ahram, Ariel I., ‘Sexual Violence and the Making of ISIS’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 3, June–July 2015, pp. 57–78. Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Relief’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 3, June–July 2015, pp. 219–26. Freilich, Charles D., ‘Why Can’t Israel Win Wars Any More?’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 2, April–May 2015, pp. 79–92. Holbrook, Donald, ‘Al-Qaeda and the Rise of ISIS’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 2, April–May 2015, pp. 93–104. Cheterian, Vicken, ‘ISIS and the Killing Fields of the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 2, April–May 2015, pp. 105–18. Fishman, Ben, ‘Jordan: Caught in the Middle Again’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 39–48. Farwell, James P., ‘The Media Strategy of ISIS’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 49–55. Hokayem, Emile, ‘Iran, the Gulf States, and the Syrian Civil War’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014– January 2015, pp. 59–86.

Fetzek, Shiloh, and Mazo, Jeffrey, ‘Climate, Scarcity and Conflict’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 5, October– November 2014, pp. 143–70. Roberts, Daniel B., ‘Qatar and the Brotherhood’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 4, August–September 2014, pp. 23–32. Alsayed, Wafa, ‘The Impatience of Youth: Political Activism in the Gulf’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 4, August– September 2014, pp. 91–106. Ozkan, Behlül, ‘Turkey, Davutoglu and the Idea of Pan-Islamism’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 4, August–September 2014, pp. 119–140. Stevenson, Jonathan, ‘The Syrian Tragedy and Precedent’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 3, June–July 2014, pp. 121–140. Taspinar, Omer, ‘The End of the Turkish Model’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 2, April– May 2014, pp. 49–64. Chubin, Shahram, ‘Is Iran a Military Threat?’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 2, April–May 2014, pp. 65–88. Tanner, Rolf, ‘Narrative and Conflict in the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 2, April–May 2014, pp. 89–108. Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Overwhelming Global Vote for the Iran Nuclear Deal’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 71–75. Byman, Daniel, ‘Sectarianism Afflicts the New Middle East’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 79–100.

Selected IISS publications

Gaub, Florence, ‘Libya’s Recipe for Disaster’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 101–20. Mina, James, and Serwer, Daniel, ‘Circumventing Hormuz’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 121–38.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Reinforce Rowhani’s Mandate for Change’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 31–34. McCrisken, Trevor, ‘Obama’s Drone War’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 2, April– May 2013, pp. 97–122.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 6, December 2013–January 2014, pp. 107–14.

Bronk, Christopher and Tikk-Ringas, Eneken, ‘The Cyber Attack on Saudi Aramco’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 2, April–May 2013, pp. 81–96.

Brockmeier, Sarah, ‘Germany and the Intervention in Libya’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 6, December 2013–January 2014, pp. 63–90.

Charap, Samuel, ‘Russia, Syria and the Doctrine of Intervention’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 1, February–March 2013, pp. 35–41.

Larrabee, Stephen F., ‘Turkey’s New Kurdish Opening’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 5, October–November 2013, pp. 133–46.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Iran Will Determine Obama’s Legacy’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 41–46.

Simon, Steven, ‘Egypt’s Sorrow and America’s Limits’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 5, October–November 2013, pp. 79–84.

Barrie, Douglas, ‘Libya’s Lessons: The Air Campaign’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 57–65.

Peel, Michael, ‘Africa and the Gulf’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August– September 2013, pp. 143–54.

Chivvis, Christopher S., ‘Libya and the Future of Liberal Intervention’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 69–92.

Guzansky, Yoel and Yadlin, MajorGeneral (retd) Amos, ‘The Arab World’s Response to an Israeli Attack on Iran’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 107–20. Borghard, Erica D. and Rapp-Hooper, Mira, ‘Hizbullah and the Iranian Nuclear Programme’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 85–106. Jones, Peter, ‘Hope and Disappointment: Iran and the Arab Spring’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 73–84. Jones, Seth G., ‘Syria’s Growing Jihad’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August– September 2013, pp. 53–72. Serwer, Daniel, ‘Muddling Through in Iraq’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August– September 2013, pp. 35–40.

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

Freilich, Charles D., ‘Striking Iran: The Debate in Israel’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 93–106. Clayton, Blake and Levi, Michael, ‘The Surprising Sources of Oil’s Influence’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 107–22. Barkey, Henri J., ‘Turkish–Iranian Competition after the Arab Spring’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 139–62.

The Adelphi series of books is the Institute’s principal contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research. Recent publications include: Hokayem, Emile and Taha, Hebatalla (eds), Egypt After the Spring: Revolt and Reaction, Adelphi 453–4, Routledge for the IISS, 2016. Fishman, Ben (ed.), North Africa in Transition: The Struggle for Democracies and Institutions, Adelphi 452, Routledge for the IISS, 2015. Dodge, Toby and Hokayem, Emile, Middle Eastern Security, the US Pivot and the Rise of ISIS, Adelphi 447–8, Routledge for the IISS, 2014. Hokayem, Emile, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant, Adelphi 438, Routledge for the IISS, 2013. Dodge, Toby, Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism, Adelphi 434–5, Routledge for the IISS, 2012. Dodge, Toby and Redman, Nicholas, Afghanistan to 2015 and Beyond, Adelphi 425–6, Routledge for the IISS, 2011. Phillips, Sarah, Yemen and the Politics of Permanent Crisis, Adelphi 420, Routledge for the IISS, 2011. Berdal, Mats and Wennmann, Achim, Ending Wars, Consolidating Peace: Economic Perspectives, Adelphi 412–3, Routledge for the IISS, 2010. Hashim, Ahmed S., Iraq’s Sunni Insurgency, Adelphi Paper 402, Routledge for the IISS, 2009. Fitzpatrick, Mark, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Avoiding Worst-Case Outcomes, Adelphi Paper 398, Routledge for the IISS, 2008. Perkovich, George and Acton, James M., Abolishing Nuclear Weapons, Adelphi Paper 396, Routledge for the IISS, 2008.

Kurth Cronin, Audrey, Ending Terrorism: Lessons for defeating al-Qaeda, Adelphi Paper 394, Routledge for the IISS, 2008. Ansari, Ali M., Iran under Ahmadinejad: The Politics of Confrontation, Adelphi Paper 393, Routledge for the IISS, 2007. Akkoyunlu, Karabekir, Military Reform and Democratisation: Turkish and Indonesian Experiences at the Turn of the Millennium, Adelphi Paper 392, Routledge for the IISS, 2007.

The Strategic Dossier series harnesses the Institute’s technical expertise to present detailed information on key strategic issues. Recent publications include: Missile-Defence Cooperation in the Gulf, IISS, 2016. Iran’s Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Capabilities: A Net Assessment, IISS, 2011. Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A Net Assessment, IISS, 2010. Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In the shadow of Iran, IISS, 2008. Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan and the Rise of Proliferation Networks: A Net Assessment, IISS, 2007.

Strategic Comments is the Institute’s online source of analysis of international security and politico-military issues. Recent articles of interest include: ‘Social divisions and rising terrorist violence in Turkey’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 40 – January 2017. ‘The Islamic State and Southeast Asia’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 36 – November 2016.

Selected IISS publications

‘The evolution of US–Israel relations’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 32 – October 2016.

‘Iraqi Kurdistan: the essential briefing’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 7 – March 2015.

‘The United States’ Syria quandary’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 30 – October 2016.

‘Iran nuclear talks approach conclusive deadline’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 4 – February 2015.

‘Libya’s faltering new government’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 27 – September 2016.

‘Libya’s civil war: the essential briefing’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 50 – February 2015.

‘India and Pakistan’s evolving relationship with the Gulf’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 25 – September 2016.

‘Turkey’s Syria role risks instability at home, isolation abroad’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 36 – October 2014.

‘Turkey: the attempted coup and its troubling aftermath’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 19 – July 2016.

‘ISIS: the threat to homeland security’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 35 – October 2014.

‘Jordan’s pragmatism and current challenges’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 14 – June 2016.

‘Libya’s civil war no closer to resolution’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 31 – October 2014.

‘Iraq’s political turmoil’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 13 – June 2016.

‘Iran nuclear talks extended for four more months’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 23 – June 2014.

‘The tenuous diplomacy of the Syrian conflict’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 8 – April 2016. ‘Turkey’s diminishing policy options in Syria’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 7 – April 2016. ‘After Brussels: understanding and countering ISIS’s strategy’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 6 – March 2016. ‘US–Saudi relations: between friction and accommodation’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 4 – March 2016. ‘Confronting failed government and the Islamic State in Libya’, Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 1 – February 2016. ‘Turkey’s growing security concerns’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 27 – October 2015. ‘Libya’s fragmented conflict resists solutions’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 22 – September 2015. ‘Iran’s nuclear agreement: the terms’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 19 – July 2015.

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

‘Egypt’s economic crisis challenges ElSisi’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 22 – June 2014. ‘Libya: Muslim Brotherhood’s tenuous hold’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 21 – June 2014. ‘North Korean lessons for an Iranian nuclear accord’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 18 – May 2014. ‘Syria’s war: Assad gains upper hand’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 15 – May 2014. ‘Torn Turkey: more turbulence ahead’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 12 – April 2014. ‘Elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons stalls’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 11 – April 2014. ‘Iraq violence grows ahead of elections’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 4 – February 2014. ‘Libya: paralysed by militias’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 38 – November 2013.

‘Iranian ICBMs: a distant prospect’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 36 – November 2013.

Strategic Survey is the Institute’s annual review – and, to a lesser degree, projection – of strategic developments throughout the world. Recent sections of interest include:

‘Al-Shabaab targeted after Nairobi attack’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 35 – November 2013.

‘The evolving threat of ISIS’, Strategic Survey 2016, pp. XII–XIII.

‘Iran’s Rouhani: high hopes, narrow remit’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 37 – November 2013.

‘Equipment purchases boost Gulf defences’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 34 – November 2013. ‘Turkey’s deepening democratic deficit’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 33 – October 2013. ‘Egypt: shifting politics under army control’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 32 – October 2013.

‘Syria’, Strategic Survey 2016, pp. 159–63. ‘Iraq’, Strategic Survey 2016, pp. 163–66. ‘ISIS’, Strategic Survey 2016, pp. 167–72. ‘The Saudi–Iranian rivalry’, Strategic Survey 2016, pp. 172–78. ‘Iran after the nuclear deal’, Strategic Survey 2016, pp. 178–84. ‘Yemen’, Strategic Survey 2016, pp. 184–88.

‘Syrian chemical plan faces multiple challenges’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 29 – September 2013.

‘Turkey’, Strategic Survey 2016, pp. 189–98.

‘Syrian war worsens Lebanon’s malaise’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 25 – September 2013.

‘Iraq: Battling ISIS’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 203–10.

‘Turkey’s civil unrest: a worrying new era?’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 19 – June 2013. ‘Iran seeks stability in election’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 17 – June 2013. ‘Syria crisis highlights importance of Chemical Weapons Convention’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 12 – April 2013. ‘Libya: fragile security, fragmented politics’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 10 – March 2013. ‘Kuwait’s deepening political turmoil’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 9 – March 2013. ‘US need for foreign oil falls dramatically’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 6 – March 2013. ‘Egypt: a country on edge’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 5 – February 2013.

‘Syria: New Rebel Alliances’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 192–202.

‘ISIS: Widening Impact’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 211–13. ‘Jordan: Struggle to Preserve Stability’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 213–15. ‘Lebanon: Burden of Syrian War’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 215–16. ‘Israel and Palestine: Hardline Politics and Resurgent Violence’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 217–22. ‘Iran: Nuclear Agreement Reached’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 223–35. ‘Saudi Arabia: Succession amid Regional Crises’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 235–40. ‘Gulf States: Tentative Integration’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 241–45. ‘Yemen: From Political Transition to Civil War’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 245–51. ‘Egypt: New Political Order’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 252–7.

Selected IISS publications

‘Maghreb: Differing Political Trajectories’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 257–61. ‘Syria: Escalation and Fragmentation’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 183–91. ‘Lebanon: Greater Insecurity and Complex Politics’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 192–95. ‘Israel and Palestine: Stalled Peace Process’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 196–200. ‘Iraq: Violent Insurgency’, Survey 2014, pp. 205–12.

Strategic

‘Iran: Interim Nuclear Deal’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 213–24. ‘Gulf States: Tensions Between Neighbours’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 224–36. ‘Egypt’s Revolution Stalls’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 238–44. ‘Maghreb: Legacy of the Arab Spring, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 245–52. ‘Spreading Conflict in the Levant’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 179–88. ‘North Africa’s Difficult Transitions’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 188–204. ‘Gulf States: Containing Change’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 204–16. ‘Israel and Palestine: Status Quo Amidst Regional Upheaval’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 216–21. ‘Iran: Persistent Confrontation’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 221–36. ‘Iraq: Political Deadlock’, Survey 2013, pp. 236–46.

Strategic

The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

The Military Balance is the Institute’s annual assessment of military capabilities and defence economics worldwide. Region-byregion analyses cover the major military and economic trends and developments affecting security policy and the trade in weapons and other military equipment. Comprehensive tables portray key data on weapons and defence economics. Defence expenditure trends over a ten-year period are also shown. The Military Balance 2017. Routledge for the IISS, February 2017.

The Manama Dialogue Report Online access to previous editions is available at www.iiss.org/ publications/conference proceedings/ sections/the-manama-dialogue-46e2

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12TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 9–11 DECEMBER 2016

The IISS Manama Dialogue The 12th Regional Security Summit: The IISS Manama Dialogue was held in the Kingdom of Bahrain in December 2016, 11 years after the inaugural Summit. The Dialogue brought together the national-security establishments of the six Gulf Cooperation Council members: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates; other regional countries including Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Yemen; and important outside powers: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Russia, India, Pakistan, China, Japan, Singapore and Australia. The Manama Dialogue was convened by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), with the support of the Kingdom of Bahrain. The IISS also convenes the annual Asia Security Summit: The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, bringing together in Singapore defence ministers, chiefs of defence staff, national-security advisers and other senior officials from countries that are members of the ASEAN Regional Forum. The IISS, a registered charity with offices in London, Washington, Bahrain and Singapore, is the world’s leading authority on political-military conflict. It is the primary independent source of accurate, objective information on international strategic issues. Publications include The Military Balance, an annual reference work on each nation’s defence capabilities; Strategic Survey, an annual review of world affairs; Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, a bimonthly journal on international affairs; Armed Conflict Survey, an annual digest of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of all major armed conflicts; Strategic Comments, a weekly analysis of topical issues in international affairs; and the Adelphi books series on policy-relevant strategic issues.

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