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May 2014
IISS Fullerton Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Russia–Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
IISS Fullerton Lectures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Middle East and the Gulf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Key Addresses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Discussion Meetings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . . . . 6
Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Latin American Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
The Second IISS Fullerton Forum
The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan leads a formation of ships during the 2010 Rim of the Pacific exercise (Scott Taylor/US Navy)
The IISS–Asia office held the second IISS Fullerton
ture was the participation of a substantial Chinese
ests and finding ‘common ground for stability and
Forum: Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting at the
People’s Liberation Army delegation, including
prosperity’ lay in ‘platforms upon which to anchor
Fullerton Hotel in Singapore from 12–14 January.
two two-star officers. Among others, there were
relations’. In Dr Ng’s view it is necessary to ‘redou-
The meeting brought together approximately 60
also strong US and Japanese delegations.
ble our efforts in engagement and diplomacy to
delegates from more than 20 of the countries that
Dr Ng’s keynote address discussed positions
build mutual trust’. He also said that Singapore
regularly participate in the Shangri-La Dialogue;
and aspirations with regard to regional security of
believed in ‘fostering public engagement through
approximately two-thirds of the delegates were
the United States, China, Japan, India and ASEAN,
an open and inclusive regional security architec-
governmental, and the remainder from think
and highlighted the concurrence of ‘nationalist
ture’. Moving beyond dialogue, ‘there must be
tanks and universities in the Asia-Pacific region.
ambitions, progressive military modernisation,
practical cooperation to build trust and cultivate
Participating IISS staff from London included Dr
and dynamic changes in power relations’ as the
habits of working together towards common goals.’
John Chipman, Adam Ward, James Hackett, and
context for recent developments in the region.
The ADMM-Plus, he said, had ‘entrenched itself as
Christian Le Mière. Dr Ng Eng Hen, Singapore’s
He pointed to ‘real concern’ over the potential for
a valuable platform for practical cooperation in the
Minister for Defence, delivered the keynote
miscalculation, and argued that the way forward
region’. However, he also noted that ADMM-Plus
address on the Monday morning. One notable fea-
in terms of accommodating diverse national inter-
armed forces ‘could perhaps have been more effec-
IISS–ASIA
SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE
FULLERTON LECTURES
JAPAN
EXPERTS
tive working together’ in response to Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, as ‘these challenges point to the need for more coordinated, collective efforts.’ In conclusion, the minister said that Singapore looked forward to ‘enlightened leadership from major powers, including the US, China and Japan, to help achieve stability and progress for Asia and indeed, the world’. Debate in the Forum’s main sessions focused on the security perspectives of regional states, the potential for managing maritime tensions, and emerging modes of security collaboration. National delegations conducted numerous bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Forum. IISS Directing and Senior Staff also had bilateral meetings with the Chinese, US and Japanese delegations. IISS–Asia will hold the third IISS Fullerton Forum: Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting in early 2015. Watch a video and read a transcript of Dr Ng Eng Hen’s 2014 Keynote Address. Singapore’s Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen
IISS Fullerton Lectures: Japan and International Cooperation
ASEAN leaders line up for a photo session at Akasaka State Guesthouse in Tokyo, Japan, December 2013 (Kimimasa Mayama/AFP/Getty)
Ichita Yamamoto, Minister of State for Ocean Policy and Territorial Integrity, Japan, gives the IISS Fullerton Lecture at the Fullerton Hotel, Singapore
On 16 January, Ichita Yamamoto, Japan’s Minister for Ocean Policy and
to developing its maritime security cooperation with ASEAN countries,
Territorial Integrity, noted that the ASEAN–Japan Commemorative
noting bilateral arrangements with the Philippines and Vietnam, and also
Summit, convened the previous month in Tokyo to mark both four dec-
the role of the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy
ades of cooperation and a ‘fresh start to the next 40 years’ of partnership,
and Armed Robbery (ReCAAP). Japan also encourages efforts by ASEAN
had been ‘a great success’. Yamamoto used his IISS Fullerton Lecture,
states ‘to settle maritime disputes’ and to manage ‘controversies’ accord-
titled ‘Asia’s Prosperity and the Importance of Open Seas’, to name Japan’s
ing to international law. In addition, Minister Yamamoto said that Japan
partnership with ASEAN a ‘vital national interest’, highlighting the impor-
and ASEAN should ‘continue to work together to engage the United
tance of ASEAN in the revitalisation of Japan’s economy, which was the
States in Asia’.
focus of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s 2012–13 election campaign. Minister
On the question of challenges to Japan’s territorial integrity, the minis-
Yamamoto noted the ‘three arrows’ of the economic revival that has
ter explained that his approach was based on what he called ‘Yamamoto’s
become known as ‘Abenomics’: an aggressive monetary policy; a flexible
Three Principles’: the rule of law; the promotion of bilateral relations with
fiscal policy; and a growth strategy encouraging private-sector investment.
neighbouring countries; and ‘the strengthening of the regional community,
In his view, Abenomics had already begun to produce results, with a ‘dra-
whose members are becoming even more interdependent’. In his view,
matic’ rise in Japan’s stock prices during 2013. The year 2014 would be
these three principles also promise ‘sustained prosperity’ in Asia. In con-
‘crucial’ in determining the effectiveness of the third arrow of Abenomics.
clusion, Minister Yamamoto affirmed ‘Japan’s determination to continue
Minister Yamamoto argued that Japan and ASEAN need to advance
to walk the path of peace’, which inspired the second Abe government’s
and prosper together. However, an important condition for doing so is
policy of ‘Proactive Contribution to Peace’ based on the principle of inter-
the maintenance of seas that are ‘open and stable’, which is necessary to
national cooperation.
ensure the ‘free flow’ of people, goods and information. At the ASEAN–
The lecture was introduced and chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive
Japan Commemorative Summit, leaders agreed on ‘the necessity of
Director, IISS–Asia. The video and transcript of the event can be viewed
maintaining freedom of navigation as well as enhancing maritime secu-
on the IISS website. Read a full report by William Choong, IISS Shangri-La
rity’. The minister emphasised that Japan attaches particular importance
Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia Pacific Security.
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IISS NEWS
PHILIPPINES
FULLERTON LECTURES
IISS–ASIA
The Philippines and ASEAN On 7 February, Philippines’ Secretary of Finance, Cesar V. Purisima, opened his IISS Fullerton lecture by saying that ‘after around thirty years of mismanagement’, since 2010 the Philippines administration under President Benigno Aquino III has been determined to pursue good governance. This has had extremely positive consequences for the country’s economy, which is now growing more rapidly. Better governance has resulted in more confidence from the financial markets, leading to lower borrowing costs for both the government and the private sector. At the same time, Filipinos have become ‘more confident in the future and in the Philippines’, which has encouraged long-term investment, and longerterm commitments by the private sector. The government intends that
Cesar V. Purisima, Secretary of Finance, Philippines, gives the IISS Fullerton Lecture, 7 February 2014 at the Fullerton Hotel, Singapore
when President Aquino leaves office in 2016, his administration’s achievements will be sustained. New legislation will make it difficult ‘to regress
grating financial markets will be an ‘essential step’ in support of ASEAN
to old habits’.
economic integration, and similar standards in education could also play
Purisima underlined what he called the Philippines’ ‘upsides’. He spoke of efforts to boost the country’s resource-extraction industries,
a useful role. While ‘true integration’ is still far away, harmonisation and convergence are necessary near-term goals.
though this would be on ‘a win-win and sustainable basis’. Tourism is
Purisima highlighted the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a ‘chal-
another important sector with great potential: since President Aquino took
lenge to ASEAN centrality, and therefore … to ASEAN itself’. He proposed
office, tourist arrivals have more than doubled. Improvements in irrigation
that ASEAN, rather than individual member states, should join the TPP,
and infrastructure will strengthen the agricultural sector, and will help lift
and pointed to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
large numbers of Filipinos out of poverty. In the south of the country, the
(RCEP), which did already envisage ASEAN as playing a leading role in
peace settlement in Mindanao will allow the region’s economic potential
pan-regional economic integration. Finally, Purisima drew attention to the
to be realised.
challenges posed by climate change, and the need for a ‘collective effort’ in
Another ‘upside’ for the Philippines, according to Purisima, is the
response. In conclusion, he argued for a concerted regional effort to make
increasing integration of ASEAN. Simplifying rules, investing in infra-
the benefits of integration ‘more attainable’. The lecture was introduced
structure and increasing connectivity can all make the conduct of business
and chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS–Asia. Watch a
easier. It will be important to harmonise standards and regulations: inte-
video of the event and read a transcript on the IISS website.
CHINA
KEY ADDRESSES
Addressing Chinese Policy According to Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia, the questions that should shape the examination of Chinese policy are: whether China’s rise can be sustained until the 2049 centenary; whether it will at some point equal the position of the United States; whether China has a ‘strategic blueprint’ for Asia; and finally, whether China seeks to change the existing global order. Rudd delivered the 2013 Alastair Buchan Lecture on ‘China’s Impact on Regional and Global Order’ at the IISS in London on 16 December. He warned that, while there are any number of daily events to distract our attention, it is important not to lose sight of the ‘mega changes’ taking place in the background.
A construction site in China (Stan Wiechers)
He argued that the political, economic and military rise of China will come to dominate international affairs, and that it is therefore crucial to
necessary for a smooth transition of the global order: to avoid ‘strategic
understand the nation’s plans and motivations. China’s rapid rise, par-
drift’ and the associated conflicts that arise from misunderstanding and
ticularly in contrast with the decline of most other powers, has caused
suspicion, China must be more open about its positions. Equally, the rest
significant anxiety, but Rudd was optimistic that ‘there is sufficient con-
of the world must not ignore it.
fluence between Chinese and Western interests and values concerning the
The event was chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and
future of the international order that together, we can construct a common
Chief Executive of the IISS. Watch a video of the event and read a full tran-
path through.’ Rudd suggested that sharper analysis and clarification are
script of Rudd’s lecture.
IISS NEWS
MAY 2014 | 3
KEY ADDRESSES
AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
SOUTH SUDAN
Post-2014 Transition in Afghanistan: Pakistan’s Perspective In his first major address in the UK, Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to the Prime Minister of Pakistan on National Security and Foreign Affairs, stressed that Pakistan has vital stakes in a peaceful, stable and united Afghanistan. Speaking at a meeting chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia at the IISS in London on 12 March, Aziz argued that Pakistan continues to be affected by what happens in Afghanistan. Despite sharing ethnic/religious affiliations, a common strategic space and a porous border, the impact of the crises in Afghanistan and their spill over into Pakistan continues to be formidable. As the ISAF troop’s drawdown nears a 2014 end, Afghanistan is confronted with three interconnected transitions; political, economic and in terms of security. To ensure that these transitions remain peaceful and successful, a cumulative effort by the Afghans, the regional players and
Afghan National Army recruits (Ernesto Hernandez Fonte/ DVIDSHUB)
the international community would be required. To this end, four preventive and proactive measures are recommended: ensuring a successful,
Pakistan relations, he noted that since economic revival requires a peaceful
peaceful political transition; supporting progress in the peace and reconcil-
neighbourhood, Pakistan hopes for better ties with India. He also briefly
iation process; committing to a regional consensus on non-interference in
touched upon negotiations with the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) militant group
Afghanistan after 2014; and providing long-term economic/developmental
and Pakistan’s recently formulated national-security policy, which is in the
assistance to Afghanistan. In the follow-up Q&A session, when Aziz was asked about India–
process of being operationalised. Watch a video of the key address on the IISS website.
The Future for South Sudan Dr Barnaba Marial Benjamin, South Sudan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, addressed the IISS on 11 February. Despite the signing of a ceasefire between the South Sudanese government and the rebels to end more than five weeks of intense fighting, the root causes of the conflict are yet to be addressed. The volatile ethnic fault lines that run through South Sudan have ruptured during this crisis. With an estimated figure of 1,000–10,000 fatalities, in addition to more than 646,400 internally displaced people, and over 123,400 refugees, the humanitarian situation is critical. This talk addressed the opportunities for, and obstacles to, a true political solution to the crisis in South Sudan and what that might mean
Women queue at a polling centre in South Darfur during the referendum on independence for South Sudan (UN Photo/Albert Gonzalez Farran)
for the future of the world’s youngest country and its neighbours. James Copnall, BBC Correspondent for Sudan and South Sudan, and Thomas
the discussion, which was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at
Mawan Muortat, South Sudanese Political Commentator, also took part in
the IISS. Watch a video of the event.
EVENTS
GEO-ECONOMICS
Adelphi: The Power of Currencies and Currencies of Power
maintain this ‘exorbitant privilege’ in tandem with a rising China. The
The dollar’s status as the leading global currency gives the US immense
cal leverage? Where has economic power been leveraged for political
political, as well as financial, clout, but that power risks being eroded
gain already? Wheatley, editor of the volume, and Dr Sanjaya Baru, IISS
– with unpredictable strategic consequences – as the Chinese renminbi
Director for Geo-Economics and Strategy, discussed these themes at a
and possibly other currencies assume greater prominence. On 9 January
meeting chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, Editor of the Adelphi series and
Alan Wheatley, former Global Economics Correspondent at Reuters,
IISS Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security. Watch a
discussed this Adelphi which assesses how long the US will be able to
video and read a report of the event.
book examines the obstacles China must first overcome in its quest to internationalise its currency, and the strategic consequences if it succeeds. At what point can an accumulation of economic power exert politi-
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IISS NEWS
MILITARY STRATEGY
GEOPOLITICS
TURKEY
EVENTS
Continuity and Change in Turkey On 21 February Dr Mina Toksoz, Emerging Markets and Country Risk Consultant and an Associate Fellow of Chatham House, and Ziya Meral, a Turkish researcher and writer, led a discussion entitled ‘Turkey Beyond the Headlines: Challenges and Possible Scenarios’. The meeting was chaired by Islam Al-Tayeb, Research Analyst at IISS–Middle East. 2013 proved to be an eventful year for Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). Despite Erdogan initiating the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and announcing a democratisation package, public discontent was brewing
Disturbances in Taksim Square, Istanbul, 2013 (Eser Karadağ)
and anti-government protests were frequent. With the presidential contest taking place in August this year and general elections scheduled for 2015,
talk explored the challenges of continuity and changes in Turkey’s domes-
the crisis could affect the party’s 11-plus-year reign and derail the Turkish
tic and foreign policies, and evaluated the relationship between Turkey’s
economy. This may have further consequences regionally, as the Turks
economic growth and its political instability. Watch the discussion and
may feel they are losing relevance in the Middle East and elsewhere. The
read a full report on the event.
Pope Francis between Obama and Putin Pope Francis is the first head of the Catholic Church from the Global South. This is the key, one veteran Vatican watcher argues, to understanding the new foreign policy emanating from the Holy See. Francis is a post-Cold War Pope, said Corriere della Sera’s Massimo Franco when he spoke at Arundel House on 9 April. The pontiff, who has never visited the US, not only opposes any revival of East–West rivalries but also believes that a unipolar, US-dominated international order diminishes the Vatican’s own soft power. Therefore the papacy is no longer the
Pope Francis (Mazur/catholicnews.org.uk)
‘religious and moral arm of the Atlantic Alliance’, said Franco, one of Italy’s leading political commentators and a frequent contributor to Survival.
Despite the new Pope’s international popularity, Franco believes the
The Pope has sided with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in speaking
pontiff ‘cannot win globally unless he wins in Rome’, and Francis’ success
out against any Western intervention in Syria. However, he has been much
within the Vatican is more limited. There has been institutional resistance
more cautious in his approach to the crisis in Ukraine, fearing not only
to reforms and many of the new Pope’s advisors lack direct experience of
a renewal of the political tensions of the Cold War but also an end to the
the Vatican’s administrative apparatus, the Roman Curia.
steadily improving relations between the Catholic and Orthodox Churches.
The Papal Nuncio Antonio Mennini spoke briefly after the presenta-
The Kremlin’s vocal support for conservative moral values is another
tion. The papal representative in the UK, who was also previously posted
factor bringing the Vatican and Russia closer together. Franco argued that
to Moscow, stressed that the Vatican viewed events in Ukraine as a politi-
the Pope had used recent meetings with the US and French presidents as
cal crisis rather an ethnic or religious one.
a way to push back on the perception that he was softening the Catholic
This meeting was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.
stance on moral issues.
Listen to the event on the IISS website.
The Direction of War
direction of the Iraq and Afghan wars. The last decade, he stated, has seen
On 27 February Sir Hew Strachan, Chichele Professor of the History of War
egy. This has illustrated the necessity of developing policies that are easily
at All Souls College, Oxford, and a member of the IISS Council, launched
converted into effective strategy.
a tendency to elevate counter-insurgency operations to the status of strat-
his book, The Direction of War, at Arundel House. Sir Hew explained the
After Sir Hew’s talk, the audience engaged in a wide-ranging discus-
contemporary evolution of strategy, noting how the concept is often con-
sion about contemporary strategy, covering issues such as the lessons
fused with policy and how strategic theory and military practice often
learned from the conflict in Syria and the recent parliamentary vote against
diverge. He suggested that an improved conceptual vocabulary was
British military intervention.
required, as demonstrated by the weaknesses in British and American
IISS NEWS
Watch a video of the event.
MAY 2014 | 5
NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT
IRAN
EAST ASIA
UNITED STATES
EXPERTS
Assessing the Iranian Nuclear Deal Having provided oral testimony on 28 January to a House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee inquiry on UK policy towards Iran, Mark Fitzpatrick,
Director
of
the
Non-Proliferation
and
Disarmament
Programme, summarised his analysis in a 3 February IISS discussion meeting. Fitzpatrick reflected positively on the Joint Plan of Action that was reached on 24 November and the 13 January agreement on technical understandings, and went on to provide six reasons for prolonging the interim deal – by his analysis, there is an 80% chance that the six-month
Full-size replicas of rockets and ballistic missiles in Tehran (Scott Peterson/Getty)
deal would be extended. Fitzpatrick assigned only a 10% chance that negotiations would produce a long-term comprehensive agreement this
tions to most of the negotiation sticking points, including alternatives to
year, largely because ‘the two sides are simply too far apart in what they
dismantling Iranian nuclear machinery. In a follow-on blog post, he elabo-
consider their bottom lines.’ He also saw a 10% possibility that diplomacy
rated on ways forward for an Iran nuclear deal.
would break down altogether, but he noted that there are technical solu-
Listen to a recording and read a transcript of the event.
Strategic Nuclear Issues in East Asia: Workshop On 5–6 March the IISS held a workshop in Beijing on strengthening cooperation between Chinese and Western policymaking communities in regards to nuclear issues. The workshop discussed nuclear deterrence, nuclear power and fuel cycle choices, including nuclear safety and nuclear security. Jointly organised with the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), the meeting attracted about 30 experts from China, Germany, Japan, Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States. Nuclear security was addressed more broadly, to include taking stock of nuclear strategy, and in comparing nuclear postures, par-
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (Asahi Shimbun/Getty)
ticipants discussed nuclear minimalism and sufficiency. Separate sessions were additionally devoted to regional contributions to the 2014 Nuclear
the Fukushima disaster, and fuel cycle choices. Read a report of the work-
Security Summit, public attitudes towards nuclear power in the wake of
shop.
Iran, the US and the Middle East: Views and Approaches presentations from Dr David Menashri and Dr Dana Allin. Dr Menashri serves as President of the College of Law and Business in Ramat Gan and Founding Director of the Alliance Centre for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University. Dr Allin is IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs and Editor of Survival. Dr Menashri discussed the great potential for progressive change in Iran, highlighting the country’s history of revolution and youth activism as sources of hope for its successful integration into the global community. Dr Allin explored American attitudes towards military intervention in the Middle East, specifically as a potential deterrent to Iranian Iranian women queue to vote at a polling station in Tehran, June 2013 (Atta Kenare/ AFP/Getty)
nuclear enrichment. He suggested that frequent intervention as a means of ‘signalling international credibility’ was an impractical policy, instead arguing for a more subtle and measured approach to engagement with
An IISS discussion meeting on 17 April, chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, examined the evolving dynamics among Iran, Israel and the US through
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the region. Watch the discussion meeting on the IISS website.
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
PAKISTAN
UNITED KINGDOM
NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT
The Trident Debate Continues As was reflected in a vigorous IISS discussion meeting on 18 March, the debate on the future of the UK’s submarine-based Trident nuclearmissile system continues. A broad spectrum of views on the role, postures and relevance of the system in the twenty-first century were put forward at this event, which was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick. Whilst Dr Julian Lewis, MP and former Shadow Defence Minister, and Admiral Lord West of Spithead argued that the UK’s Trident system remains the ultimate insurance policy against uncertain future military threats and nuclear blackmail, the other two panellists disagreed about the role and continued relevance of the programme. Baroness Shirley Williams of Crosby perceived Trident as an ‘outdated’, Maginot Line approach, arguing that new threats, such as cyber warfare, are of greater relevance today. Sir Nick Harvey, MP, emphasised that the UK should retain its nuclear know-how and capability for addressing potential future existential threats, but that a new, non-Continuous At-Sea Deterrence
Trident II (D-5) missile underwater launch
(CASD) posture for the system should be adopted. Harvey added that it is debatable whether Trident is fulfilling any practical utility at all.
Harvey argued that patrolling 24/7 in the post-Cold War security environment makes no sense, as the UK currently has no nuclear adversary
The question that Britain’s next government faces is essentially whether
with both the intent and capability to threaten Britain. He further stressed
to CASD or not to CASD. Russia’s recent annexation of Crimea, and other
that credible alternatives exist and that Britain has a whole ladder of
potential scenarios in which threats can arise unpredictably and quickly,
nuclear possibilities, some of which would be welcomed internationally.
were raised by Lewis as an argument for the continued need for a credible
West disagreed and warned that moving down the nuclear ladder unilater-
nuclear-deterrent system. From an operational perspective, West stressed
ally would be politically damaging to the NATO Alliance and unwelcome
the importance of deployment for the survivability of the UK’s Trident
in many European capitals.
system.
Negotiating with Iran
Watch a video and read a full report on the event.
However, according to Samore, the two sides remained far apart on the essential terms for a comprehensive agreement, reflecting fundamental differences in national interest and domestic political constraints both sides faced. While the P5+1 have demanded that Iran significantly scale back its enrichment programme, Iran has rejected any long-term restrictions on its enrichment activities. There were, nevertheless, some areas where compromise was possible. Iran, for example, might consider modifications at Arak so it would not produce as much plutonium. Samore believed other short-term constraints Iran could accept were not close to what the US required for an agreement, both to keep Iran well below the nuclear threshold and to sell the deal to Congress and US allies. He recommended that the US insist on an agreement that would delay Iran’s break-out period to at least a year, and that this period of delay be in place ‘for maybe 20 years or so’, much longer than Iran would probably accept. Samore was concerned that the Ukraine crisis could dramatically alter
P5+1 ministers at United Nations Headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland following negotiations with Iran, November 2013 (US State Department)
the course of nuclear negotiations, given the fall out between the West and Russia and a sense of disarray among the P5+1. Tehran would likely be more reluctant to make painful nuclear concessions and ‘would have every
On 10 March, the IISS hosted Dr Gary Samore to discuss prospects and
incentive to wait and see’ how the crisis played out.
problems of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme. Samore noted
Dr Samore is Executive Director for Research at the Belfer Center for
that the Joint Plan of Action, signed by Iran and the P5+1 in November,
Science and International Affairs at Harvard University and President
seemed to be ‘going forward without any major glitches’. Tehran had taken
Obama’s former White House Coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons
most of the key steps required: suspending production of 20% enriched
of Mass Destruction. This meeting was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, IISS
uranium and halting installation of centrifuges and major work at the Arak
Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs and Editor,
heavy-water research reactor.
Survival. Watch a video of the discussion on the IISS website.
IISS NEWS
MAY 2014 | 7
SOUTH ASIA
ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT
AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
EXPERTS
Second Defence Doctrines Workshop in Islamabad The IISS held its second workshop on ‘Defence, Deterrence and Stability in South Asia’ in Islamabad on 10 December in cooperation with the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) Islamabad. A sixmember IISS team from London travelled to Pakistan for the workshop. Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, CISS Executive Director and Rahul RoyChaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia gave the introductory remarks. The Director General, Strategic Plans Division (SPD), National Command Authority (NCA), Lt-Gen. Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (Retd), delivered the keynote address. Building on his address at the first CISS– IISS workshop in Islamabad, which took place in March, General Kidwai focused on the rationale of Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine and challenges to the deterrence regime in South Asia. Importantly, he noted that since the last CISS–IISS workshop, a National Command Centre (NCC) has been established and was activated in June 2013. This is a highly secure facility designed to protect communications and control assets of the NCA, serving to augment Pakistan’s nuclear credibility. General Kidwai asserted that Pakistan’s response to India’s ‘Cold Start’ doctrine is fullspectrum deterrence at strategic, operational and tactical levels, with the aim of reinforcing peace in the region. Consequently, Pakistan’s pursuit of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) should not be taken as a sign of weakness. Pakistan has long been proposing CBMs without any reciprocity from India. As a responsible nuclear-weapons state, Pakistan
Pakistani Army soldiers guard nuclear-capable missiles at the International Defence Exhibition in Karachi (Asif Hassan/AFP/Getty)
has demonstrated sound stewardship of its nuclear programme by strengthening its export controls to the point of not presenting an iota of
senior SPD officials and influential experts from Pakistan, along with the
proliferation risk. General Kidwai urged criteria-based membership for
IISS senior staff. Over 60 officials and experts from Pakistan participated,
participation in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
including Ambassador Aizaz Chaudhry, the then Additional Secretary
Three sessions followed: Nuclear and Missile Control Regimes; Pakistan-India Crisis: Scenarios and Capabilities; and Military and Nuclear CBMs with India: Challenges and Prospects. These were presented by
UN, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), and Ambassador Inam-ul-Haq, former Foreign Minister. Read a report of the event.
The Pakistan Army’s Operations in the Tribal Areas Zulfiqar Ali Bhatty, the Army and Air Adviser at the Pakistan High Commission in London, spoke at the IISS on 19 February on the challenges faced by the Pakistani army along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border. In this discussion Bhatty elaborated on the role of the Pakistan Army in the war on terror. Highlighting troop deployment, periodic operations and cross-border movements in relation to Afghanistan, his remarks focused on the Pakistan Army’s tactical and operational achievements. However, he also alluded to the many challenges it faces in this context. These involve tackling the troubled local economy, sustaining military operations beyond 2014, improving bilateral relations with Afghanistan and ensuring better working relations with the United States. Bhatty concluded his speech by offering the Pakistan Army’s commitment to eliminating terrorists – their facilities and sanctuaries – and to strengthening the political and administrative institutions in the Federally Pedestrians cross the border at Torkham, Afghanistan between Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan and Khyber Province, Pakistan (Wakil Kohsar/AFP/Getty)
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MAY 2014
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Watch the event on the IISS website.
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
Pakistan’s National Defence University team meet with IISS
TERRORISM AND SECURITY
INDIA
SOUTH ASIA
Sixth IISS–Indian Foreign Ministry Dialogue
Indians wait in line to vote at a polling station in Varanasi, India (Kevin Frayer/Getty)
On 29 April a delegation from Pakistan’s National Defence University (NDU) was briefed by the IISS on nuclear issues, India and transnational terrorism. Mark Fitzpatrick, IISS Director of Non-Proliferation and Disarmament focused on issues relating to his recent Adelphi book
Indian aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya (Indian Navy)
Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers. IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, discussed the possible outcomes of the 2014 Indian
The sixth IISS–Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) dialogue took
general elections and speculated on a new Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya
place in New Delhi on 4 March. The Keynote Address was delivered by
Janata Party (BJP) coalition government’s relations towards Pakistan.
Anil Wadhwa, Secretary (East), MEA. Speaking on ‘India’s Extended
Nigel Inkster, IISS Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk,
Neighbourhood: Prospects and Challenges’, Wadhwa noted that the
spoke about the challenges posed by transnational terrorism and its impli-
economic aspects of India’s regional relationships are being supported
cations on broader regional security. IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare,
by on-going initiatives to impart strategic depth and orientation to
Ben Barry, discussed the critical role of the Afghan National Army (ANA)
India–ASEAN and India–East Asia relations. Considering that India is
after the 2014 troop withdrawal, contending that Afghan National forces
strategically located overlooking vital trade arteries, it is a natural corol-
would hold together if the political centre does not fragment. The interac-
lary that India should play a greater role in maritime security in the region.
tive session that followed focused on the ‘way forward’ on these issues.
This confluence of economic and strategic interests has also character-
The Pakistan NDU delegation was led by Iqbal Tahir, and Barry chaired
ised India’s engagement with West Asia, which accounts for nearly 60%
the session.
of India’s imports of hydrocarbons, making the region an indispensable pillar of India’s energy security. Wadhwa noted that while economics will be a key driver, India’s rela-
US–Pakistan Relations to 2014 and beyond
tionship with its extended neighbourhood is to acquire greater strategic depth, which will manifest itself in increasing defence and security cooperation. As it engages with the wider region, India will have to factor in the role of other Asian players like China and Japan, as well as the role of non-resident powers such as the US and the ramifications of the US
Former US Ambassador to Pakistan, Cameron Munter, discussed the recent
rebalancing policy. The multiplicity of external powers in the region could
challenges to the Pakistan–US relationship at a meeting held at the IISS on
open up new avenues of cooperation, if the situation is handled with tact
10 December. The troubled relationship was explained from both sides:
and foresight.
as Munter presented it, the Pakistanis feel repeatedly exploited while the
These remarks were followed by sessions on ‘West Asia’, ‘US
US suspect the Pakistanis of dishonesty, and historically, both nations feel
Re-balancing Strategy’ and ‘Maritime Security Challenges’, all of which
betrayed on a series of commitments. The talk focused on the countries’ ties
were chaired by senior MEA officials. These included Sandeep Kumar,
during 2011 – a particularly turbulent year for the bilateral relationship due
Joint Secretary (West Asia and North Africa), Vikram Kumar Doraiswami,
to the US attack on Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan.
Joint Secretary (Americas) and M.V. Raj Krishna, Director (Military
According to Munter, it would be wise for the Americans to resist view-
Affairs). This dialogue was held at the Institute for Defence Studies and
ing Pakistan only through the prism of Afghanistan and security. Rather, it
Analyses (IDSA) in New Delhi, with the participation of Dr Arvind Gupta,
would be better to engage with Pakistan by building cultural ties based on
Director General, IDSA.
education and philanthropic sectors, areas that have traditionally engen-
The IISS team was led by Adam Ward, Director of Studies, and
dered strong relationships. Pakistan’s main challenge, he said, is to deal
included: Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia; Emile
with terror groups, so that the country becomes more attractive for busi-
Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security (IISS–Middle East); and
ness – not only to the neighbouring countries but to the rest of the world.
Antoine Levesques, Research Associate for South Asia.
Watch a video and read a report on the event.
IISS NEWS
Read more about the event on the IISS website.
MAY 2014 | 9
DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS
CHINA
DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY
China’s Defence Innovation
EXPERTS
Visit by NATO Defense College
Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning NATO Defense College, Rome, 2013 (NATO Defense College)
On 5 March, Dr Tai Ming Cheung, Director of the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, spoke on the subject of
On 28 March nearly 90 military officers and diplomats attended Arundel
‘Forging China’s Military Might: Assessing the State of Chinese Defence
House as part of a visit by Senior Course 124 of the NATO Defense
Innovation’. He analysed the state of defence innovation in China in
College, based in Rome. Chaired by James Hackett, Editor of The Military
terms of industrial and technical elements, the rapid progress the field
Balance, the event featured presentations by Nigel Inkster, IISS Director
has seen in recent years, and current and future areas of focus. Cheung
of Transnational Threats and Political Risk and by Dina Esfandiary,
also discussed the nature of the relationship between defence contractors,
IISS Research Associate, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, on non-
regulators and end-users, as well as the level of engagement shown in this
proliferation challenges including Iran. After the formal presentations
sector by China’s leadership. The meeting was chaired by James Hackett,
there was a lively Q&A session, with all three IISS staff members asked
Editor of The Military Balance and Senior Fellow for Defence and Military
a variety of searching questions relating to international defence and
Analysis at the IISS. Listen to a recording of the event.
security affairs by the assembled course members.
IISS–British Army CBRN Seminar
Chinese Air Power
Chengdu J-20
On 23 April, Douglas Barrie, IISS Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace and Soldiers don respirators during an exercise at the Defence CBRN Centre (Martin Jones/MOD)
Henry Boyd, IISS Research Associate for Defence and Military Analysis, continued a series of events focused on Chinese defence and military developments with a discussion meeting at Arundel House entitled ‘Chinese Air
Following the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the primary focus of the British Army
Power: Revolution or Evolution?’. James Hackett, IISS Senior Fellow for
has been the stabilisation of both Iraq and nearby Afghanistan. Yet during
Defence and Military Analysis and Editor of The Military Balance, chaired the
this period, British forces have not engaged in consistent efforts to defend
event, which centred on the accelerated growth and reorganisation of the
against chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) threats.
People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) during the past two decades.
To help the army examine the implications of this, the IISS organised a
The situation regarding China’s present and future air-power capa-
seminar on 3 March to analyse the current and future CBRN threat and its
bilities was considered in terms of both advancements in technology
potential impact on land force operations across the spectrum of conflict.
and equipment, and the moves towards reorganisation and structural
Panellists included experts on weapons of mass destruction from IISS, aca-
change. Both Barrie and Boyd acknowledged that the broader picture of
demia and industry. Over 50 officers and officials from the British and
the PLAAF’s development plans remains unclear, but concluded that the
German armies and the Royal Air Force (RAF) attended. Discussion topics
PLAAF is rapidly reconfiguring from a force with limited homeland capa-
included threats from both states and terrorists and lessons to be learned from
bilities to one with expeditionary potential. Listen to a recording of the
civilian emergency management and the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
discussion.
10
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MAY 2014
IISS NEWS
MILITARY BALANCE
DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS
Maritime Security in Africa The IISS, in partnership with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), organised two private workshops for military and civilian experts and practitioners on maritime security in Africa. The events were held in conjunction with the visits of two Royal Navy warships: HMS Daring in Shanghai (December) and HMS Portland in Lagos (February). In China, Christian Le Mière, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security and Virginia Comolli, IISS Research Fellow for Security and Development chaired a discussion that highlighted the differences between piracy in Somalia and in the Gulf of Guinea as well as in approaches adopted in the two regions. Notably, the international
HMS Portland
community has struggled to devise effective measures to fight maritime insecurity in West Africa. Difficulties have resulted from the plethora of
at the root of maritime crime and piracy. Second was the importance of
regional groupings present in the region, which complicates coordination.
backing maritime-security initiatives with greater political willingness on
Furthermore, identifying areas of jurisdiction is not always easy given the
the part of local governments, in order to address factors such as corruption
number of adjacent countries making up the Gulf of Guinea coast.
and weak rule of law that, among others, have allowed piracy to flourish.
Two key recommendations emerged from the discussion. First was the need for additional capacity building to address problems on land that are
Read a report on the China event by Virginia Comolli and a report on the Nigeria event by Christian Le Mière.
The Military Balance 2014 The IISS launched the 2014 edition of The Military Balance, the annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics, before an audience of international media on 5 February. In the press statement, IISS Director-General and CEO Dr John Chipman noted some of the book’s key conclusions. Defence planners are, he said, ‘confronted by a fractured and increasingly complex security environment’. During 2013, fighting in the Middle East and North Africa worsened while conflict in Mali and the Central African Republic inspired outside intervention. In Asia, defence-budget growth is accelerating, procurements are rising, and states are developing and acquiring advanced military
Experts meet the press following the UK launch
equipment of types previously monopolised by the West and Russia. ‘For the West,’ Chipman said, what is clear is that ‘the end of the Iraq War and
This year saw the defence and military analysis team launch The Military
the impending drawdown from Afghanistan mark neither an end to crises
Balance in other locations, bringing the book’s conclusions to a wide range
inviting Western military responses, nor a definitive end to Western inter-
of national policymakers, military officials and journalists. On 10 February,
vention.’ Nonetheless, total European defence spending continues to fall
Ben Barry attended the launch of The Military Balance 2014 at IISS–Asia in
in real terms – by an average of 2.5% per year since 2010 – and European
Singapore, where a range of journalists and defence specialists questioned
states face reduced capability, and possibly diminished influence, making
him – and the wider IISS–Asia team – about the book and broader defence
all the more pressing initiatives to maximise value from defence budgets
and security affairs. On 11 March, James Hackett, Ben Barry, Douglas
through closer cooperation. Meanwhile, total Asian defence spending was
Barrie and Christian Le Mière were in Berlin to launch The Military Balance
in 2013 11.6% higher in real terms than in 2010, and these outlays are fuel-
2014 before an audience comprised of German policymakers, journalists,
ling heightened military procurement in a region replete with conflicting
military officers and diplomatic officials. The event was hosted by the
territorial claims as well as long-standing potential flashpoints.
Körber-Stiftung, and stimulated a wide-ranging and informative debate
The Military Balance 2014 combines defence facts and objective analysis
that continued long after formal procedings ended.
with innovative charts, graphics and maps supporting the trends outlined
The IISS–US office in Washington DC hosted the US launch of The
in the book. There is extensive and detailed assessment of defence matters,
Military Balance 2014 on 18 March. James Hackett and Douglas Barrie
not only in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, but also in Latin America,
detailed key conclusions from this year’s volume, as well as a short vignette
Russia, North America and Africa. Specialist essays focus on: conflict anal-
on Chinese and Russian air power, while Dr Samuel Charap analysed
ysis and conflict trends, notably lessons from modern conflicts in terms of
events in Ukraine. Questions asked during the formal Q&A session covered
threats and required capabilities; unmanned systems, increasingly preva-
topics ranging from Russian defence reform, Ukraine, and Latin American
lent in many armed forces and likely to proliferate further; and the cyber
security to East Asian military procurements. The launch was moderated
domain. Watch the London press launch.
by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies. Watch the US launch.
IISS NEWS
MAY 2014 | 11
RUSSIA–EURASIA
RUSSIA
JAPAN
UKRAINE
Future of the Russia–Japan Relationship
EXPERTS
The Ukrainian Crisis and the Western Response
Pro-Russians on an Ukraine Army vehicle in Mauripol (Asahi Shimbun/Getty)
Western leaders have signalled that they are drawing the line on Crimea, said Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, at a 26 March IISS–US discussion meeting. The West is saying ‘if you invade farRussian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo, November 2013 (Yoshikazu Tsuno/AFP/Getty)
ther into southern and eastern Ukraine, the gloves are off and we’ll move
The current trajectory of the Russia–Japan bilateral relationship is the most
vent is possible, if not probable, Charap claimed, even if Russia’s current
promising it has been in more than a decade. Dr Matthew Ouimet, IISS
intentions are to stop annexing territory at Crimea. It does not matter what
Consulting Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, discussed the potential
Putin’s intentions are, because the events on the ground could produce an
of this relationship at IISS–US on 11 February, at a meeting moderated by
unwanted outcome in a variety of ways.
from individual sanctions to blanket, sectoral ones.’ But in Ukraine the outcome that all Western signalling is trying to pre-
Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia.
Ambassador Lee Feinstein contended that the challenge for the West
President Vladimir Putin’s 2012 call for a ‘draw’ over the four disputed
is to demonstrate its serious and capable capacity for immediate action.
‘Northern Territories’ suggests Moscow may be open to what scholars
He said that real and perceived differences between US and other Western
have called a ‘two plus alpha’ solution that would go beyond the return
powers need to be minimised and conveyed as one voice to Moscow.
of two islands promised in the 1956 Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration.
Moreover, it needs to be demonstrated that the West is committed to a
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his political allies have similarly voiced
common course of action in the long-term.
support for a mutually agreeable solution which will likely require Japan
Dr Keith Darden, a professor at American University, focused on inter-
to relinquish its demand for all four islands. If Abe remains in office with
nal Ukrainian problems, which he viewed as appropriate given that this
sufficient domestic political support, might the two sides conclude a
crisis started internally. He argued that the solution will come from within
territorial agreement and final peace treaty in time for the seventieth anni-
Ukraine. The EU association process activated deep and long-standing
versary of the end of the Second World War in September 2015?
regional divisions within the country, and the new Ukrainian government
Despite Dr Ouimet’s optimism regarding a potential settlement, he
only exacerbated these divides. Unless we deal with these regional cleav-
acknowledged that Russia’s connection with recent events in Ukraine
ages, he said, Ukraine will not be stable, will not join NATO and will not be
could have derailing consequences for the possibility of resolving the
truly independent. Darden emphasised that legitimate elections and decen-
island stalemate between Russia and Japan.
tralisation will do far more than external pressures to stabilise the situation.
A video and a report of the event can be found on the website.
Watch a video of the event and read a full report.
The Ukraine Crisis and the Search for a New Normal Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, examined
lation’) was in fact a lowest common denominator of crisis response: a
the prospects for the development of the crisis in Ukraine at a discussion
desperate grasping for a new stable equilibrium for Ukraine, Russia and
meeting at Arundel House on 1 May. Charap noted that as the country’s
the international system.
winter of domestic political discord had transformed into a spring of terri-
However, as Charap contended, the talking points and buzz words, no
torial partition and instability, European and American officials seemed to
matter how many times they have been repeated, do not in fact describe a
be speaking from an agreed set of talking points in their public remarks on
sustainable equilibrium or an end-point to the crisis. Instead, this crisis has
the crisis. While hopeful transatlanticists sought to construe this remark-
likely initiated an indeterminate period of instability. The search for a new
able consistency in messaging as a demonstration of a new seriousness of
normal will likely prove long, costly and highly disruptive of individuals’
purpose in the West, the drum beat of warnings, threats, and prescriptions
lives and the international order. Read a full report by Samuel Charap and
for resolution (inevitably characterised as either an ‘off-ramp’ or ‘de-esca-
watch the full discussion.
12
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MAY 2014
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
Pluralism in the Arab World
SYRIA
IRAQ
MIDDLE EAST AND THE GULF
Syria after Geneva II
Syrian refugees in Beqaa, Lebanon (iStock/AhmadSabra) Tahrir Square, Cairo, Egypt, November 2011 (Hossam el-Hamalawy)
Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS–Middle East led a discussion on ‘Syria after Geneva II: Escalation and Fragmentation’ on 27
Dr Marwan Muasher, Vice-President for Studies at the Carnegie
March at Bloomsbury House in London.
Endowment for International Peace, spoke about his new book, The Second
The failure of the UN-mediated Geneva track between representatives
Arab Awakening and the Battle for Pluralism, at the IISS at Arundel House on
of the Assad regime and of the Syrian opposition has put an end to the illu-
24 April.
sion of a political solution to Syria’s deepening tragedy. Syria today is in
Dr Muasher emphasised the necessity of ‘embracing pluralism as a
an advanced state of fragmentation. While regional competition undoubt-
strength’ to ensure successful transitions to democracy across the Arab
edly exacerbates the violence, local and transnational dynamics continue
world. Those post-transition governments that favoured inclusivity and
to shape Syria’s downward trajectory.
compromise, he claimed, enjoyed the greatest levels of stability in the
In recent times, the Assad regime has benefitted from rebel infight-
shortest periods of time. Outlining four possible transition models, he dis-
ing, sustained Russian and Iranian support, Arab divisions and Western
cussed the benefits and disadvantages of each approach using examples
paralysis; it has also reorganised militarily and politically ahead of presi-
from countries affected by the uprisings.
dential elections set for later this year. It has proven able to secure territory
Dr Muasher also outlined key political, economic and social lessons
it needs but has essentially transformed into a collection of militias.
learned from the successes and failures of these transition processes.
As Hokayem noted, mainstream Syrian rebels have struggled to orga-
Acknowledging the difficulties ahead, he expressed encouragement at the
nise while fighting both the regime and the extreme jihadists. Several
progress achieved thus far, reminding his audience that ‘no historical pro-
rebel alliances have emerged in the north and the south and have received
cess … has unfolded in three short years.’
weaponry, but the military outcome of such developments remains uncer-
Listen to the event which was chaired by Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East.
tain. This meeting was chaired by Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East. Watch the full discussion.
Violence and Elections in Iraq Toby Dodge, author of the Adelphi book, Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism – which The Economist named one of the books of the year for 2013 – discussed recent developments in the run-up to the April parliamentary elections in Iraq at an event at the IISS on 27 January, titled ‘Iraq: Caught Between Increasing Violence and National Elections’. As a confrontation between the jihadist group, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), and the Iraqi government led by Nuri al-Maliki, plays out against increasing protests, sectarianism and displacement, Dodge discussed how the April election could prove to be a ‘moment of truth’, or,
Voting in Iraqi general election, 2010 (iStock/sadikgulec)
could mean that Iraq heads towards greater instability. ‘I think Iraq is at a fascinating crossroads,’ said Dodge. Previously, he
of the military mean that even a million-man army might not be enough to
explained, he would have said that the military dominance of the Iraqi
keep things under control. Dodge’s discussion emphasised that the coun-
armed forces and the extent of state control would be enough to hold
try could be moving towards further unrest, but also acknowledged that
the centre and prevent another civil war. But although some of that still
the national election could possibly change that trajectory.
stands, the increasing violence, population transfers and the domination
IISS NEWS
Watch a video of the event and read a full report.
MAY 2014 | 13
IISS–MIDDLE EAST
CYBER SECURITY
SYRIA
EXPERTS
Data Protection and the GCC The IISS Cyber Security Programme convened a private focus meeting titled ‘Data Collection and Privacy Considerations for the GCC’ on 10 March at the IISS–Middle East. Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, chaired the meeting alongside Dr Eneken TikkRingas, IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber Security. Dr Tikk-Ringas said: ‘The meeting is part of the larger IISS Cyber Security Programme, focusing on conscious exercise of state power in cyberspace and promoting strategic policy-level thinking about cyber security issues. Data protection has emerged as a complex international issue that combines national concerns
Network servers (Sehenswerk/Dreamstime)
about growing ICT markets, individual right to privacy, cybercrime and cyber defence and security.’ The IISS Cyber Security Programme will launch a Strategic Dossier which will facilitate understanding of the evolution of computer and
networking technologies over the past six decades, as well as the emergence of relevant cyber-security policy issues coupled with potential solutions.
Cyber Security Strategies in the Gulf On 3 April the IISS launched the IISS Cyber Security Programme’s Cyber Security Expert Series at the IISS–Middle East headquarters in Bahrain with a panel discussion on ‘Cyber Security: Strategies in the Gulf’. Renowned cyber experts Dr John B. Sheldon, Founder and Principal Consultant, The Torridon Group; Lt.–Col. Mike Kerttunen, Director, Department of Leadership, Baltic Defence College; and Chris Spirito, International Cyber Lead, The MITRE Corporation, came to Bahrain for the launch which was chaired by Bahrain-based IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber Security, Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas. The experts addressed cyber conflict in the region and in Bahrain, government and private-sector remedies against cyber conflict, and baseline
Army officers monitor TV stations and websites at the military press office in Cairo, June 2012 (AFP/Getty)
cyber defence and security capabilities, as well as education and training requirements for the cyber-security work-force. The Cyber Security Expert
security seeks to inform cyber security decision-making in and around the
Series draws on the IISS’s network of world experts to further debate and
Gulf region and to promote the exchange of regional and national views
discuss cyber issues that presently impact both the region and the inter-
on international cyber security issues and solutions,’ said Dr Tikk-Ringas.
national community. ‘IISS’s strategic advisory and commentary on cyber
Watch the event on the IISS website.
IISS Global Perspectives Series: Prospects for Syria After the failure of the recent Geneva II track, on 16 April IISS–Middle East hosted a discussion meeting on Syria’s advanced state of fragmentation and the implications for regional security. Emile Hoyakem, IISS Senior Fellow for Regional Security, examined the prospect of a political solution to the crisis and dissected issues pertaining to the survival of the regime and the Syrian opposition. Hokayem explained how the very adaptation technique of the Syrian regime contains the seeds of its own fragmentation. He emphasised that the regime’s strategy for survival is to conquer territories, coupled with burdening the opposition with a humanitarian crisis composed of flows of refugees and IDPs. Hokayem especially urged for a careful assessment of the crisis that resists the temptations of viewing it through the proxy war prism. He concluded with the assertion that a diplomatic solution to the war in Syria is merely an attractive intellectual construct.
14
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MAY 2014
Destruction in Bab Dreeb area in Homs, Syria (Bo Yaser)
IISS NEWS
GEO-ECONOMICS
IRAQ
IISS–MIDDLE EAST
IISS Global Perspectives Series: Iraq’s National Elections and a New Regional Cold War Four days before Iraq held its fourth set of national elections since regime change in 2003, Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Regional Security, examined the likely outcome of the elections to an audience in Bahrain. These elections are crucial for the evolution of a country still plagued by politically motivated violence and weak state institutions. However, the election campaign has been shaped by key politicians using sectarian rhetoric to maximise their vote. Iraq, as a weak state, is highly
An Iraqi inspects partial results outside a vote counting center in Baghdad following the general elections (Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty)
vulnerable to the interference of its neighbours who are also using sectarian rhetoric as a tool of their foreign policies. Dodge left members of the audience with a grim forecast: ‘If Nuri al Maliki or anyone else who becomes prime minister in his place
that now dominate Iraq, then its return to civil war appears very likely.’
after April 30th does not seek to overcome the politics of exclusion
The Sixth Geo-economics and Strategy Conference in Manama
Watch the discussion in full.
Papers delivered at the conference considered the geo-economic implications of the changing weights of developed and developing economies in world trade, especially, as trade economist Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute, Washington DC put it, the emergence of China as
The focus of this event, held at the IISS–Middle East in Manama from
a ‘mega-trader’. The conference agreed that China’s continued economic
6–8 April, was the shifting nature of what the World Trade Organiza-
growth is likely to remain the single most important factor threatening the
tion’s (WTO) annual World Trade Report 2013 (WTR) summed up as ‘the
extant balance of power at both the global and regional levels.
balance of power in the multilateral trading system’. This change is
The conference also addressed the developing role of preferential trade
signified, as participants at the conference noted, by the decline in the
agreements (PTAs) and the negotiations for ‘mega-trading blocs’ such as the
rule-making power of the original ‘quad’ in the GATT-system, namely
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment
the United States, European Union, Canada and Japan, and the emer-
Partnership (TTIP). These agreements were examined in relation to the con-
gence of a newly significant group comprising of the US, EU, China,
tinuing health of the multilateral trading system and the global economy. Read a full report of the conference.
India and Brazil.
The Armed Conflict Database Monitoring Conflicts Worldwide
“
DATA – annual figures for global conflict trends, as well as multi-year statistics on fatalities, refugees and IDPs
The Armed Conflict Database (ACD) from the International Institute for Strategic Studies is an invaluable tool for the annual compilation of the Global Peace Index.
“
– Economist Intelligence Unit
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT > acd.iiss.org > or email sales@iiss.org IISS NEWS
FEATURES > FACTS – timelines published daily on the 50-plus active conflicts covered in the ACD
ANALYSIS – regular assessments of political, military and human security trends, plus background briefings includes a list of selected non-state armed groups, their estimated strength, origin, political or ideological aims, and areas of operation reports and statistics on archived conflicts, plus further analysis of potential conflicts and conflict-related themes within ACD news FUNCTIONS > browse through the different year-on-year reports and fact sheets online generate targeted reports on conflict data starting from 1997 and correlate reports from various years, conflicts, regions and topics easily find more conflict-specific content with links to IISS publications and primary documents
MAY 2014 | 15
IISS–US
ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT
ISRAEL AND PALESTINE
IISS–US Policy Makers Series
EUROPEAN UNION
EXPERTS
Prospects for Israeli–Palestinian Peace Negotiations
A C-17 Globemaster III military cargo jet for the Indian Air Force under construction at Boeing, California (Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg/Getty) A protester during clashes with Israeli security forces (Jaafar Ashtiyeh/AFP/Getty)
This January, President Obama signed the first update to the US Conventional Arms Transfer Policy since its adoption in 1995. Updated
On 19 March, Daniel Kurtzer, the S. Daniel Abraham Professor in Middle
to reflect the evolving nature of US strategic relationships in response to
Eastern Policy at Princeton University and former US Ambassador to
changing global security challenges, this policy sets the standards by which
Israel, and Ghaith al-Omari, the Executive Director for the American Task
the US decides which defence systems to export to whom, and under what
Force on Palestine, spoke at the IISS–US about the prospects for Israeli–
conditions. The revised framework specifically considers possible impacts
Palestinian peace negotiations.
on regional arms balance, human rights, the US defence-industrial base, and partnerships and alliance strategy in shaping policy decisions.
Al-Omari commented that for the Palestinians, failure of the peace negotiations was not the preferred outcome, and that neither side wanted
On 23 April, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Regional
to agree to a final settlement that would leave them in a vulnerable posi-
Security and Arms Transfers, Gregory Kausner, spoke on ‘Conventional
tion, either regionally or domestically. Ambassador Kurtzer suggested
Arms Transfer Policy: Advancing American National Security through
that one way to avoid the talks failing would be for the Obama adminis-
Security Cooperation’ at the IISS–US. Kausner’s talk explained how the
tration to lay out a strong framework, thereby avoiding an issue-by-issue
Conventional Arms Transfer Policy, originally written under the Clinton
negotiation which would inevitably drive one party away from the bar-
administration, has been updated to clarify a new framework for arms-
gaining table.
transfer decision-making.
This discussion was moderated by Steven Simon, Executive Director,
The event was chaired by Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia. Watch the discussion and read a transcript.
IISS–US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East, and can be seen on the IISS website.
External Threats and Domestic Challenges: Strategic Choices for the EU
European parliament, Strasbourg, France (EU 2012)
external dynamics and their relationship with
tions approach throughout Europe, much of
the domestic challenges facing the EU, particu-
what the European Union will look like as an
larly in regards to an increasingly aggressive
institution will be defined in the coming months.
Russian foreign policy.
Heisbourg also pointed to a need to reinvigorate
Heisbourg noted that as recently as 2010, the
Europe’s relationship with the United States,
global security environment looked quite differ-
and said that agreements like the Transatlantic
ent to how it appears today. Regimes in Libya,
Trade and Investment Partnership are opportu-
Syria, and Egypt were all relatively stable, a far
nities to accomplish this.
cry from the crises that continue to plague those
Heisbourg devoted the latter part of his dis-
countries today. European relations with Russia
cussion to the EU’s role in the ongoing crisis in
in the same period, though tepid, were making
Ukraine. The sudden change in the EU–Russian
positive progressions.
relationship reinforces the need for the EU to
The external threats that the EU faces today
redevelop its defence capacity; both for the sake
According to François Heisbourg, Chairman of
represent a significant departure from the rela-
of deterring Russia and to assist Ukraine with its
the IISS, the European Union faces significant
tively stable security environment of recent
own security needs should the EU wish to prove
strategic choices amidst a ‘hardening’ of its secu-
years. According to Heisbourg, overcoming the
itself a good-faith partner in the future.
rity environment, most recently exemplified
strategic challenges facing the EU will require
The event was moderated by Steven Simon,
by the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. On 20 March
concrete decisions, not slow-moving discussion
Executive Director, IISS–US. Watch the full dis-
Heisbourg spoke at the IISS–US to discuss these
that produces little tangible outcome. As elec-
cussion.
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MAY 2014
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
LIBYA
Managing the Spillover from Syria
TUNISIA
SYRIA
IISS–US
Lessons from the Tunisia Model
Zaatari Camp, Jordan (Karl Schembri/Oxfam)
On 20 February, IISS–US hosted a discussion meeting centred on the regional impact of the continuing crisis in Syria. Speakers included Henri Barkey, Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University; Benjamin Fishman, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East and
Tunisian National Assembly (magharebia)
North Africa; Kim Ghattas, BBC State Department Radio and TV correspondent; and Ambassador James Jeffrey, The Washington Institute Philip
The approval of Tunisia’s new constitution marked an important mile-
Solondz Distinguished Visiting Fellow.
stone in the country’s democratic transition, paving the way for the
With the breakdown of the Geneva negotiations between the Assad
2014 elections. Notably, this achievement emerged through compromise
regime and the Syrian opposition, prospects for a resolution, or even a
among Tunisia’s political parties, and not through the violence and unrest
pause, to the conflict in Syria appear dim. The ongoing crisis continues
that has troubled much of the region’s experiments with democracy over
to have profound implications for the broader Middle East, especially
the past three years.
for the frontline states of Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. This meet-
To assess the origins of Tunisia’s breakthrough and its broader impli-
ing addressed how Syria’s neighbours are managing the crisis across their
cations, the IISS–US held a special roundtable discussion on 24 February,
borders, especially in regards to the massive flow of refugees and the tide
titled ‘The Tunisia Model: Lessons from the Constitution and Challenges
of extremists and weapons. Key questions were asked: what are the risks
Ahead’. This meeting examined the basis of political compromise in
to the stability of Syria’s neighbours and how can those risks be mitigated?
Tunisia between secular and Islamist groups, challenges ahead for
Will the violence continue to spread in Lebanon and Iraq? How long can
Tunisia’s transition, and the lessons of Tunisia’s experience for the broader
Jordan and Turkey survive the status quo?
Middle East. Three distinguished Middle East experts were invited to
The discussion concluded with a panel-wide agreement that the
speak: Anouar Boukhars, Non-resident Scholar, Carnegie Endowment
myriad issues facing the region cannot hope to be resolved from the out-
for International Peace; Radwan Masmoudi, President of the Center for
side so long as the Syrian civil conflict continues. A solution must come
the Study of Islam and Democracy; and David Pollock, Kaufman Fellow
from a change in the calculus of the involved actors and external stake-
at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Additionally, special
holders. What is evident is that these frontline nations will have to work
guest Rached Ghannouchi, Secretary-General of the Ennahda Movement,
hard to prevent the conflict form engulfing their own states.
offered his insights on the lessons to be learnt from the Tunisia model.
Read a full report and watch a video of the event.
Read a full report on the event.
Toppling Qaddafi: Libya and the Limits of Liberal Intervention The 2011 intervention in Libya differed from
implications were explained by Christopher
Afghanistan and Iraq in terms of not only
Chivvis, Senior Political Scientist at RAND, on
NATO cooperation and speed but also the US’s
10 January during the IISS–US-hosted launch
new approach of ‘leading from behind’, which
for his new book, Toppling Qaddafi: Libya and
together led to a limited and low-cost interven-
the Limits of Liberal Intervention. Julianne Smith,
tion. While the efficacy of the involvement in
former Deputy National Security Advisor to Vice
Libya is still being debated within the countries
President Biden, shared her thoughts on both
that participated, this type of ’new intervention’
Chivvis’ analysis and the high-level meetings
could change the way NATO responds to future
which eventually led to NATO’s intervention.
crises.
The meeting was moderated Ben Fishman,
The successes and failures of the recent NATO action in Libya and that intervention’s
IISS NEWS
Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East and North Africa at the IISS.
Libyans celebrating the end of the Qaddafi regime in Tripoli (NATO)
Read a full account and watch the discussion meeting.
MAY 2014 | 17
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY
EXPERTS
Adelphi: Arctic Opening: Insecurity and Opportunity The Arctic is opening. Global warming is leading to seasonal sea-ice retreat, which in turn opens hitherto impassable shipping routes and new areas for resource exploitation. Such changes are elevating the Arctic’s geostrategic value and stoking inter-state competition. The admission of five Asian states as Arctic Council observers in 2013 underlined the increased importance of the High North in global politics. And as the sea ice retreats, so military forces are redeployed northwards, raising the prospect of conflict. The Adelphi book, by Christian Le Mière and Jeffrey Mazo, discusses
USS Annapolis in the Arctic Ocean during Ice Exercise 21 March, 2009 (US Navy/Tiffini M. Jones)
change in the Arctic, outlining the possibilities of and limits to economic opportunities in the High North, while providing a detailed examination
The launch of the Adelphi on 29 January was chaired by Dr Nicholas
of the political and military changes this might bring about. It provides an
Redman, IISS Director of Editorial and Senior Fellow for Geopolitical
invaluable guide as the region transforms from a parochial concern to a
Risk and Economic Security. Watch a video of the event and read a full
global interest.
report.
New Climate Science
Exeter, was convening lead author on the human-security chapter of
On 7 April, the Climate Change and Security Programme held a discus-
vious report in 2007. The second speaker, Professor Clionadh Raleigh
sion meeting titled ‘New Climate Science: Implications for Security’ at
from the University of Sussex, directs the Armed Conflict Location and
Arundel House, focusing on the latest research on how global warm-
Event Data-project. They discussed the implications of this latest body of
ing might affect the future security environment. The meeting was
climate-science research for the security community, with a focus on con-
timed to coincide with the publication of the second volume of the
flict risk in the Sahel and the scope for human adaptation to climate change.
the IPCC report and had served as a convening lead author for the pre-
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment
The meeting was chaired by Dr Jeffrey Mazo, IISS Consulting Senior
report. For the first time, the IPCC included a chapter on human-security
Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy, and Consulting
impacts, including the risk of violent conflict.
Editor of Survival. Listen to a recording of the presentations and Q&A
The first speaker, Professor Neil Adger from the University of
LATIN AMERICAN SECURITY
session.
EXPERTS
COLOMBIA
Colombia’s Security Challenges
illegal economic activities, but also from their taxation of legal businesses – especially in rural areas with weak state presence.
Challenges to peace and governance in Colombia were examined during
Idler brought back from Colombia’s borderlands the clear impression
the discussion meeting titled ‘Armed Groups and the Challenges for
that the presence of armed groups is directly linked to the absence of infra-
Security’, held at Arundel House on 12 March. The speakers were Javier
structure and governance. The borderlands, she said, are convenient to
Ciurlizza, Program Director for Latin America at the International Crisis
the guerrilla leaders: they carry low risk and bring high financial return
Group and Annette Idler, doctoral candidate at the University of Oxford
thanks to their remoteness. Some of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
with field research experience in Colombia’s borderlands. The event was
Colombia’s (FARC) most profitable fronts (guerrilla divisions) are located
chaired by Antônio Sampaio, Research Analyst for Latin America at the
at these borderlands, she reported. The strong grip that BACRIMs and guerrillas have over the drug
IISS. Ciurlizza explained that the sources of finance for armed groups have
supply chain, illegal mining and rural communities indicates that armed
faced significant change during the past few years. As the extractive indus-
groups may be difficult to eliminate in some areas, even if a historical peace
tries expand their presence across Colombia’s rural areas, armed groups
agreement is reached with the FARC leadership in Havana. As Colombians
have diversified into illegal mining and extortion. Groups not involved
strive towards a possible end to five decades of political conflict, authori-
in the current negotiation, such as the National Liberation Army (ELN)
ties are already aware of the increasingly powerful criminal groups and
and the criminal bands, have stepped up their involvement in violence
resource-rich guerrilla structures that are determined to maintain their
and extortion. Ciurlizza emphasised that their profits come not only from
feuds. Listen to the full discussion.
18
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MAY 2014
IISS NEWS
PUBLICATIONS
Adelphi: Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers At launch events in Washington, London, Geneva, Vienna and Islamabad on 26 March through to 8 May, Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the IISS NonProliferation and Disarmament Programme, summarised the assessments and recommendations in his Adelphi book, Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers. Concerns have been raised about the prospects for nuclear terrorism, nuclear accidents and onward proliferation involving Pakistan. The greatest danger, however, is the potential for nuclear war as the result of an escalatory cycle sparked by Pakistan-based extremists conducting another
discussion at each of the book launches. Some attendees argued that the
spectacular terrorist attack in India, like those in Mumbai in 2008.
nuclear-cooperation exemption given to India damaged the integrity of
With nuclear arsenals numbering just over 100 and systems on a low
the global non-proliferation regime, and that allowing Pakistan a similar
level of alert status, the strategic arms race in South Asia pales in comparison
carve-out would further undermine the NPT. Others found unfairness in
to the nuclear excesses of the Cold War superpowers. But the introduction
Fitzpatrick’s contention that the conditions for Pakistan should be tighter
of short-range nuclear weapons adds a destabilising element. Accidents,
than those enjoyed by India, given Pakistan’s past failures of nuclear stew-
misperceptions and miscalculations could all trigger a South Asian nuclear
ardship.
war. The development of cruise missiles, sea-based platforms and other ambiguous dual-use systems heightens the potential for misperception. In a departure from his previous view, Fitzpatrick argued that Pakistan should be offered a path to normalising its nuclear programme. This was not his only recommendation, but it was the one that sparked the most
Fitzpatrick acknowledged the criticisms and said he advocated nuclear legitimacy for Pakistan without great enthusiasm and without claiming that it would solve the nuclear dangers on the subcontinent. But no other option offered a better process toward overcoming those dangers, he concluded. Read more about this Adelphi.
New Adelphis
Only integrated policies that take into
Adelphi 444
and political aspects of food security
Beyond Air–Sea Battle: The Debate
have any chance of succeeding.
account the complex socio-economic
Over US Military Strategy in Asia by Aaron L. Friedberg After
a
decade
counter-insurgency
Adelphi 440 spent and
emphasising
Arctic Opening: Insecurity and Opportunity by Christian Le Mière and
counter-
Jeffrey Mazo
terrorism operations, finding a credible response to China’s A2/AD capabilities is
climatic conditions. With more than half the
The Arctic is opening. Global warming is leading
now the central task confronting US military
world’s people and high levels of inequality,
to seasonal sea-ice retreat, which in turn opens
planners. This Adelphi analyses the debate over
Asia lies at the centre of the global food-security
hitherto impassable shipping routes and new
the future of US military strategy in Asia. It
challenge of the twenty-first century. The region
areas for resource exploitation. Such changes are
identifies and assesses three approaches to the
– especially China and India – is drawing on
elevating the Arctic’s geostrategic value and stok-
problem; highlights their likely implications
world stocks and importing more staples, as its
ing inter-state competition. The admission of five
for weapons procurement, force posture and
own farms strain to meet its growing middle
Asian states as Arctic Council observers in 2013
alliance cohesion; and outlines a potential
classes’ desire for more meat and processed
underlines the increased importance of the High
synthesis combining elements of each.
foods. Meanwhile, the smallholder farmers who
North in global politics. And as the sea ice retreats,
supply 80% of the continent’s food confront
so military forces are redeployed northwards,
Adelphi 441–442
continued poverty, as they struggle to raise
raising the prospect of conflict. Christian Le Mière
Food Security in Asia: Challenges, Policies and
output in the face of creeping environmental
and Jeffrey Mazo bring much-needed sobriety to
Implications by Monika Barthwal-Datta
degradation, looming water shortages and the
the discussion of change in the Arctic, outlining
The spike in global food prices in 2007–08 not
unpredictable effects of climate change.
the possibilities of and limits to economic oppor-
only led to riots on several continents; it also
As this Adelphi shows, there are no simple
tunities in the High North while providing a
reawakened fears about the world’s future abil-
solutions. Today, rice is exported while some
detailed examination of the political and military
ity to feed itself, as growing populations place
households still go hungry, unrest grows as land
changes this might bring. Their analysis provides
greater demands on agricultural systems operat-
is appropriated for biofuels or industry, and
an invaluable guide as the region transforms from
ing in increasingly difficult environmental and
nations compete over waters and fishing rights.
a parochial concern to a global interest.
IISS NEWS
MAY 2014 | 19
PUBLICATIONS
New Strategic Dossier: Regional Security Assessment 2014 Since 2002, the International Institute for Strategic Studies has organised the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore as a venue at which defence ministers, military and top-ranking defence officials from Asia-Pacific states, and other powers heavily involved in the region, are able to discuss the most important regional security matters of the day. The Dialogue has become a fixture in the calendars of key Asia-Pacific defence decision-makers from 27 countries, and in mid-2014 it convenes for the thirteenth time. This Regional Security Assessment 2014 is the first IISS Strategic Dossier to be issued in association with the Shangri-La Dialogue. It focuses on issues reflecting the most important themes to emerge from successive Dialogues: • The evolving regional roles of the major powers, particularly the United States and China, but also Japan and India, among others. • The dangers posed by potential flashpoints, notably the Korean
This Strategic Dossier focuses on the evolving regional roles of the
Peninsula, Taiwan and territorial disputes in the East and South
major powers in the Asia-Pacific, particularly the United States and China.
China seas.
It examines the dangers posed by potential flashpoints, as well as perva-
• Pervasive low-intensity security concerns, from insurgencies
sive low-intensity security concerns. It also reflects on questions of military
in Southeast Asia to transnational threats relating to maritime,
competition in the region and how best to construct a more secure and
resource and cyber security.
stable regional order.
• The crucial overarching questions of military competition in the
The Dossier will be launched at the Shangri-La Dialogue 2014 on Friday
region and how best to construct a more secure and stable regional
30 May in Singapore. Print copies are available to pre-order and will be
order.
dispatched after the launch.
Survival: Global Politics and Strategy In the June–July 2014 issue of
The IISS welcomes the following;
Survival, Lawrence Freedman discusses
crisis
management
Appointments Simon Abraham – Receptionist
and
Anna Ashton – Editorial Assistant, Survival
its implications for Ukraine, Karl
Annabel Corser – Editorial Assistant, Publications
Eikenberry analyses the United
Joseph Dempsey – Research Analyst, Military Balance Online
States’ loss of enthusiasm for mili-
Hervé Lemahieu – Research Associate to the Director of Studies
tary intervention, and Alexander
Hilary Morris – Assistant Librarian
Nicoll considers Scotland’s refer-
Neda Nobari-Nazari – Junior Accounts Assistant
endum on independence. Also in the issue: Jonathan Stevenson on
Consultants:
Syria and US foreign policy; Pierre
Zahir Kazmi – Visiting Fellow, South Asia
Noël on energy supply and mari-
Rafal Rohozinski – Consulting Senior Fellow for Cyber Security
time security in Asia; and Russell
Wenguang Shao – Consulting Senior Fellow for China and International
Crandall on Mexico’s drug cartels.
Relations
See more on the issue here.
Member Access to Library Full-Text Databases The Library has recently purchased two new exciting products,
one-stop search facility that searches and provides full-text access to
which offer great benefits to members. The first is a new database,
items from both the ISCTRC database and open source material on the
the International Security and Counter-Terrorism Reference Centre
theme of international relations, plus searches IISS Library catalogue
(ISCTRC), that offers full-text access to over 3,000 items relating to inter-
holdings.
national security or terrorism, such as journal articles, e-books, reports, etc. The second is the EBSCO Discovery Platform, a highly configurable
20
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MAY 2014
Members can access this platform via links in the members’ area or the Library area of the IISS website.
For details of how to contact the IISS >
IISS NEWS