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Winter 2016
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Enhancing Middle East security and stability
IISS Manama Dialogue 2016 Full Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1–9
South Asia Security Conference 10th Track 1.5 Oman Summit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
This year’s IISS Manama Dialogue, the 12th Regional
But the broader conflicts in those countries continue, with
Security Summit, held on 9–11 December 2016, was
a sustained Russian role in the latter and growing concern
attended by delegates from 40 countries, including senior
about the expansion of Iranian influence. The attraction of
ministers, top officials, diplomats, political leaders, and
extremist ideologies remains a powerful if contested factor
military and intelligence chiefs. It took place two days
in debate about the future of the Middle East state system.
after the 37th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit,
The emergence of Saudi Arabia as a more assertive power,
also in Bahrain. This was the first GCC summit addressed
most obviously in Yemen, and the future of Saudi–Iranian
by a British Prime Minister and, in a marked and signifi-
relations have also become hot topics. And all this is set
cant symmetry, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson
against the broader prospect of an incoming United
gave the Keynote address at the Manama Dialogue’s
States administration, political turbulence in Europe, new
opening dinner. He reviewed the history of Britain’s rela-
urgency about economic reform and continuing pressure
tionship with the Gulf, and Bahrain in particular, and set
on global energy producers. Energy prices have shown
the scene for three days of discussion about the role Gulf,
signs of recovery since the November OPEC meeting in
Arab and other international actors might play in enhanc-
Vienna, but their future direction is still unclear.
ing security and stability in the region.
The Gulf and wider Middle East continue to be the site
The world has moved on significantly since the 2015
of major global challenges with serious policy implica-
IISS Manama Dialogue. The Islamic State, also known as
tions, not just for the states of the region but for the US,
ISIS or ISIL, has been pushed back hard in Iraq and Syria.
the EU, Asia and Russia. There is increasing agreement on
EU Non-Proliferation Conference Event Summary . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Everyone Loses New Adelphi Book . . . . . . . . . . 16
MANAMA DIALOGUE
Sky News Arabia Opening Televised Plenary (l–r): Ellen Laipson, Distinguished Fellow and President Emeritus, Stimson Center, US; Member of the Council, IISS; Ayad Allawi, Vice President, Iraq; General (Retd) David Petraeus, Chairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US; Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud, Chairman, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Saudi Arabia; and Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia
the need for more effective collective responses.
Keynote Speech
trip to Bahrain followed visits by Prime Minister
As yet the delivery of such responses is patchy.
‘Britain is back East of Suez ... active in and
Theresa May and the Prince of Wales in the year
But the IISS Manama Dialogue remains the most
deeply committed to the region.’ This was the
marking the 200th anniversary of friendship
important regional platform helping decision-
strong message of friendship delivered by British
between the United Kingdom and Bahrain.
makers in the region and beyond reach this goal
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson in his opening
The Foreign Secretary described as a mistake
– through high-level discussions in plenary and
address at the 2016 IISS Manama Dialogue. He
Britain’s decision to disengage from the region
special sessions, and the facilitation of bilateral
went on to say: ‘This is not just about politics,
in 1968 and made clear that shared interests – in
contacts. We are again profoundly grateful to the
not just about trade, not just about strategic sup-
political, economic and military terms – made
Kingdom of Bahrain and its Foreign Ministry for
port. This is about building on and intensifying
close cooperation more important than ever. In
their gracious and continued support, and to all
old friendships. Britain has been part of [the
particular, the challenges of regional and global
government and non-government participants
Gulf] story for the last 200 years, and we will be
instability required multinational approaches,
for their active contributions.
with you for the centuries to come.’ Johnson’s
including a global effort to defeat ISIS. Other challenges in the region included relations with Iran, the security, political and humanitarian
Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK
crisis in Yemen, and setting the basis for a political solution that would ensure lasting peace in Syria once ISIS was defeated. Importantly, and in spite of the UK’s growing military presence in the region, renewed military ties with local partners and a plan to spend £3 billion in military commitments over the coming decade, the Foreign Secretary was clear that military solutions alone would be insufficient. Instead, he argued for helping local leaders find local answers to the many social and economic challenges faced by the citizens of Gulf countries. He said young people, above all, needed ‘the prospect of an exciting economic future’ and, in this respect, the UK could work closely with regional allies to promote economic opportunities. Recalling his experiences as Mayor of London, Johnson discussed the impact of the Gulf on the capital, from ever growing invest-
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IISS NEWS
MANAMA DIALOGUE
term, he was more concerned by the threat from politically connected militias in Iraq than by ISIS. Allawi and Petraeus also argued for a constructive US approach to Russia in the region. Petraeus said the incoming US president should recognise that the objective of preserving a united Syrian state was no longer tenable; the US objective now should be to halt the fighting, and in that regard it might be possible to find common ground with Russia’s interests. Allawi claimed that Russia was committed to crushing ISIS, despite limited evidence in the region for this assertion, and he called for deeper cooperation with Moscow. Laipson also noted the possibility of Trump reaching an understanding with Russia that would see US support for the Syrian opposition downgraded. Petraeus added that it was vital, however, to maintain support for opposition forces fight-
Dr Ashton Carter, Secretary of Defense, US
ing Islamic State. Yet while his fellow panellists seemed resigned to the possibility of Western ments by Gulf states and businesses to the large
Dr Ellen Laipson, President Emeritus of
states prioritising the fight against Islamic State
number of Gulf students choosing British univer-
the Stimson Center, predicted Trump would
over the ouster of Syria’s president, Prince Turki
sities. He also highlighted the UK’s own sales to
maintain greater continuity in office than his
said it was vital to defeat Bashar al-Assad as
the region, from cars to retail chains, represent-
campaign rhetoric promised. This included
well as ISIS.
ing an export market worth £20 billion per year.
adhering to the position that the root causes of
This made the region Britain’s greatest non-EU
regional militancy had to be solved internally,
First Plenary Session: US Policy and Middle
export market apart from the United States.
not by external powers. She warned, however,
East Stability
With this in mind, and following Britain’s
of a possible dramatic change in US policy
United States Secretary of Defense Ash Carter
decision to leave the European Union, Johnson
towards Iran and the international agreement
opened Saturday’s proceedings with a confi-
envisaged even stronger commercial relations
concerning its nuclear programme.
dent but sober speech. The confidence came in
with the region in the future, aided by the pos-
Embracing the theme of Iran, Prince Turki
his assertion of steady but marked progress in
sibility of entering new free-trade deals with
said the country had not established its creden-
destroying the strongholds in Iraq and Syria of
Gulf partners.
tials in the region as a peaceful nation set on
Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Carter
reconciliation with its neighbours. He claimed
said the seizure of Mosul and Raqqa by coalition
SkyNews Arabia Television Debate
that Iranian interference in the region was
forces of these two cities, ‘the primary objective
Before the formal opening of the 12th IISS
increasing and noted Tehran’s claims to have
of our military campaign’, would ‘put ISIL on
Manama Dialogue, delegates and selected
captured four Arab governments. Allawi stated
an irreversible path to lasting defeat’. He added
speakers took part in a live television debate.
that Iran had been exhausted by its intervention
that the progress was a result of US actions
Fadila Souissi of Sky News Arabia began by
in other Middle Eastern states and was ready to
including consolidating the Iraq and Syria war
asking the panel how Donald Trump’s elec-
negotiate, which created an opening for the new
efforts under a single, unified command, one of
tion victory would affect the region. HRH
US administration.
numerous recommendations made by Carter
Prince Turki Al Faisal, formerly a senior Saudi
Laipson urged delegates not to exaggerate
and approved by President Barack Obama.
diplomat and director-general of the king-
Iran’s capacities to threaten its neighbours, and
Carter said in the previous week the president
dom’s general intelligence directorate, noted
suggested that Arab–Iranian trust could be built
had also authorised the deployment of approxi-
the president-elect’s anti-Muslim statements
by cooperating on issues of common concern
mately 200 new US personnel to Syria. Carter
but argued the region should wait to see how
such as water management. That might in turn
said this would ‘ensure the success of isolating
he acted once in office. Retired United States
create the basis for talks on security matters, she
Raqqa, generate sufficient local forces to seize
General David Petraeus concurred, while argu-
said. Prince Turki rejected that idea, asking how
Raqqa, and deny ISIL sanctuary beyond Raqqa’.
ing that the lessons of the last 15 years pointed
he could cooperate with Iran while it facilitated
But Carter’s tone was sober in acknowledging
to the need for continued, sustained engage-
slaughter in Syria.
some tensions among anti-ISIS coalition forces.
ment. Ayad Allawi, the vice-president of Iraq,
Allawi and Petraeus agreed on the impor-
He said the US was first and foremost pursu-
expressed his hope that the next US adminis-
tance of building a representative, responsible
ing its own interests in the Middle East, which
tration would adopt a policy stance that relied
government for Nineveh Province and Mosul
were not always the same as those of individual
less on the military to beat Islamic State, also
once the battle for the city, now in the hands of
nations in the region. But he added that ‘more
known as ISIS or ISIL.
ISIS, was won. Petraeus said that in the longer
often than not, [interests] overlap or can be
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MANAMA DIALOGUE
Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt
Ayad Allawi, Vice President, Iraq
Sh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain
aligned’. Carter said this was important because,
was already robust. He also argued that collec-
judiciaries and action to combat poverty. Iraq
in the campaign against Islamic State and else-
tive ballistic missile defence capabilities among
has rich natural resources but has suffered
where, lasting success would only be achieved
Gulf Cooperation Council countries would
from external interference, he said, and inter-
if local forces secured territory and local govern-
‘really make sense’. He denied the accusation
ventions from actors including Iran forced
ance took hold. Hence the US would focus on
that America was focused on tactics rather
citizens to hide within their tribes. Allawi
enabling local forces.
than strategy, but added there were limits to
also lamented what he labelled the ‘fake Arab
Carter pointed out that the US has grow-
what the US could do. Regarding the red-line
Spring’. He called for a new regional con-
ing commitments in Europe and Asia, and
crisis, he countered that ‘many moments’ had
ference aimed at reconciliation. Iran would
said there were ‘imperfections’ in the response
brought the region to its current situation.
need to be a positive player in this, and
to ISIS from some partners in the Middle East.
Donald Trump’s name went unspoken
states should plan for a true Arab Spring that
While he praised NATO countries and the Iraqi
during Carter’s speech and the subsequent
reflected popular will and ensured stability,
government, including the Kurdish Regional
question and answer session, even though the
security and sustainable development.
Government, he said some regional powers had
billionaire was set to assume the US presidency
Sameh Shoukry, Egyptian Foreign Minister,
not performed to their full potential. Alluding to
the following month. But the outgoing defence
said the Middle East was at a turbulent stage
recent tensions between the Obama administra-
secretary did appear to lay down some mark-
in its history and required clear guiding prin-
tion and Arab governments over such matters
ers on the need for American forces to counter
ciples. These should include orderly change
as the Syrian civil war and the nuclear deal with
potential ‘Russian aggression and coercion,
and addressing the rise of terrorism. He said
Iran, Carter added: ‘I would ask you to imag-
especially in Europe’. Carter also said Moscow
the Arab Spring was well intentioned but
ine what US military and defence leaders think
had neither promoted political transition in
undermined institutions of the nation-state,
when they have to listen to complaints some-
Syria nor fought ISIS, but rather ‘inflamed the
producing a vacuum that was filled by groups
times that we should do more, when it’s plain
civil war and prolonged the suffering of the
that employed terrorism. These groups should
to see that all too often, the ones complaining
Syrian people’ – a very different assessment of
have been more representative and inclusive, he
aren’t doing enough themselves.’
Russian behaviour to Trump’s. And in a mes-
argued. Shoukry said the Israel–Palestine issue
In the discussion that followed, Dr Ebtesam
sage that was probably intended for the new
remained a top priority, and that solidarity
Al Ketbi, President of the Emirates Policy
administration as well as regional partners, he
among the region’s Arab states was vital.
Center, argued that the US lacked a strategy for
insisted that the US ‘has interests here that it
the period after the defeat of ISIS. IISS Council
cannot walk away from’.
Finally Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, the host nation’s minister of foreign affairs, reported on the 37th Gulf Cooperation Council
Chairman François Heisbourg asked Carter to reflect on lessons from President Obama’s
Second Plenary Session: Regional Powers and
summit held in Bahrain days earlier. The event
‘redline crisis’ over Syria’s use of chemi-
Middle East Stability
set a goal of building a common market in the
cal weapons, suggesting this was the pivotal
In the second plenary session, Iraqi Vice
region within ten years. Security and defence
moment that led to a greater Russian role in
President Ayad Allawi emphasised the nexus
relationships are paramount, Sheikh Khalid
the war. Carter went on to say that Arab coun-
between stability and security, and outlined
said. Bahrain had also hosted the first ever Gulf
tries needed to invest more in ground forces,
the need for united societies, rejecting groups
Cooperation Council–United Kingdom (UK)
suggesting that investment in air capabilities
that seek division, as well as independent
summit, at which UK Prime Minister Theresa
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Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Minister of Defence, Germany
Ng Eng Hen, Minister of Defence, Singapore
Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France
May expressed a commitment to the Gulf that
The nuclear accord with Iran should have been
Singapore’s Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng
was more than transactional.
linked to security and stability in the region.
Hen also called for greater engagement with
Sheikh Khalid decried the troubles that had
He said that during the previous decade, the
countries in the Middle East, to counter the
befallen Iraq and Syria, and declared Turkey
United States had not been a proactive player
ideology and propaganda of the Islamic State,
had been held back by problems in Syria. He
in the Middle East, turning a blind eye to Iran’s
also known as ISIS or ISIL. He welcomed the
said Iran, which used to be a bastion of stabil-
activities. America should understand the need
group’s loss of territory in the region, but feared
ity, systematically sought to use every regional
to apply pressure, Allawi said.
its defeat in Iraq and Syria would heighten the
dispute to its advantage. He added that Iran’s
Sheikh Khalid agreed that it would be
threat in Southeast Asia. He explained that more
doctrine of velayat-e-faqih, under which all Shia
unwise for the US to rip up the nuclear accord,
than 1,000 Southeast Asian fighters currently in
are subject to the country’s supreme leader,
which would play into Iran’s hands and legiti-
Iraq and Syria were ‘ready to create a caliph-
must not be allowed to extend beyond its bor-
mise its misdeeds. As for Israel, it would be
ate’ in their region of origin. He proposed that
ders. He said Bahrain was seeking a security
welcome in the region after it accepted Palestine
in addition to existing regional cooperation, the
architecture for the region that included every
as an independent state.
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) must intensify efforts to share intelligence.
country, but if Iran wanted to be part of the group it would need to abandon interference.
Third Plenary Session: Combating Extremism
France’s Minister of Defence, Jean-Yves Le
in the Middle East and Beyond
Drian, called on the international community
Egypt understood the special nature of its
In the third plenary session, three panellists
to be resolute in its response to terrorism. He
relations with Saudi Arabia, and press reports
proposed constructive steps to combat terror-
reminded the audience that terrorism’s ultimate
suggesting divergence and an Egyptian move
ism in the Middle East and around the world.
objective was to ‘destabilise the state,’ and that
toward Iran were incorrect. Egypt’s relations
Terrorism is ‘global in scope and regional
the growth of terrorist groups largely depended
with Iran remained severed. The rumour that
in character,’ German Federal Minister of
on the weakness of the state. That is why, he
Egypt re-sold its French-built Mistral helicopter
Defence Ursula von der Leyen said. She
added, combating terrorism required concerted
carriers to Russia was also false. Shoukry said
declared that the social and ideological dimen-
efforts but also adherence to international law.
the fight against terrorism in the Sinai was going
sions of terrorism must be addressed alongside
He insisted that ISIS’s religious dogmatism
well and Egyptian forces were capable of han-
the aspects that could be fought by military
must be destroyed, and that this called for spe-
dling it without outside help. Egypt’s policy on
means. Von der Leyen called on leaders of
cific responses focusing on religious education.
the Syria crisis was not to support any side, but
Islamic countries to promote the argument
He praised efforts by the United Arab Emirates
to recognise the will of the Syrian people.
that Islam stands for peace and tolerance.
in this domain, remarking on the counter nar-
Allawi said Iraq welcomed the participation
She said that since terrorists had weaponised
rative campaign led by the Sawab Center. He
of other actors, except terrorists. He saw signs of
social media, ‘we must take up the fight in
said France had a similar initiative called ‘Stop-
Iraqis rejecting sectarianism, and believed that
cyberspace’. Addressing the need to strike a
Djihadisme’, which had yielded promising
the issue was not divisions between Sunni and
balance between security and free speech, she
results on the de-radicalisation front.
Shia but disenfranchisement. Iran’s interven-
urged her audience to tell authentic local sto-
Questions from the audience enriched the
tion in other countries could not be accepted,
ries that would dismantle the extremists’ lies
discussion. Suhail Al Gosaibi of the Bahrain
but neither was it good to isolate the country.
and convince a global audience.
Foundation for Dialogue pointed to the suscep-
Responding to questions, Shoukry said
IISS NEWS
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MANAMA DIALOGUE
weapons of mass destruction and countering what General Petraeus called ‘Iran’s malign activities’, which he said were increasing. Petraeus argued that, beyond counter-terrorism, partnering efforts should include maritime security and counter-piracy, counter-trafficking, and gradually knitting together defence and early warning capabilities. He emphasised the need for organisational, command and control, and intelligence architectures, and the need to turn strong bilateral relationships into multilateral ones. This had been happening for decades, he said, but only sporadically. US leadership through central command was an important facilitator, he argued, and the evolving threats showed the need to knit together partnerships both within the region and beyond, while the region itself remained of critical importance to the wider world. Kentaro Sonoura, State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Japan
General (Retd) David Petraeus, Chairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US
tibility of European youth to extreme groups,
raised the risk of security threats spreading.
Petraeus was asked whether in previous remarks he had advocated an organised partition of Syria, and also what the US position on Iran would now be, while British MP Nadhim
connections
Zahawi asked how to pursue a political track
mented that extremism among young people
between the two regions relied on dependable
in the aftermath of the battle for Mosul in Iraq.
was not a result of economic hardship, but
maritime transport – more than 50% of Middle
Sir John Jenkins, the session chair and executive
caused by double standards in Western policies
East exports went to Asia, and nearly 40% of
director of IISS–Middle East, asked what the
towards the region. He pointed to the Israeli–
Middle East imports came from Asia. He said
role of China would be, given its huge economic
Palestinian conflict and the destruction of
there were common security problems, includ-
penetration in the region.
Aleppo as examples. François Heisbourg of IISS
ing nuclear proliferation. But he contrasted
In response, Sonoura re-emphasised Japan’s
said the West’s cooperation with Kurds fighting
Iran’s recent acceptance of a nuclear deal with
non-military role in capacity-building in areas
ISIS might in the future show the weakness of
North Korea’s continued defiance over the issue.
vacated by Islamic State, also known as ISIS or
the Sykes–Picot Agreement.
Sonoura said greater international pressure on
ISIL. Petraeus said it was not too late for a politi-
Von der Leyen noted that while ‘we admire
North Korea, including from beyond the region,
cal solution in Syria, but time was running out.
the courage of the Kurds’, Germany believed
was needed. By the same token, Japan would
He added that rather than pursuing objectives
that a unified Iraq was better for all its people,
continue to offer economic incentives for Iran to
that may not be achievable, the overriding goals
and Le Drian was hopeful that the dialogue
stick to its agreement. It would also encourage
should be defeating ISIS and Al-Qaeda-affiliated
between Iraq and Kurdish authorities would
Iran to play a constructive regional role.
groups, and stopping the bloodshed. On Iran, he
while Dr Ibtesam Al Ketbi from the UAE com-
Sonoura
argued
that
the
prove constructive for the future. He also agreed
The minister raised the issue of maritime
said the long-term goal was preventing Iranian
with Dr Al Ketbi that economic deprivation did
security in the South and East China Seas, and
nuclear weaponisation. He agreed the impor-
not explain terrorism, noting that French foreign
efforts to change the status quo there. He said
tance of getting the political settlement in Mosul
fighters were often educated but might have
Japan would pursue non-military efforts to
right, for the city and Iraq as a whole.
been susceptible to radicalisation. Drawing on
improve security in the Middle East through
Petraeus stressed the continued significance
Singapore’s experience in integrating people of
capacity-building and development aid in
of American leadership, and the overwhelming
different races and religions, Dr Ng said social
Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. But he also
capabilities of the US. But he said increasing
solutions need not always conform to the ideals
emphasised particular Japanese contributions
Chinese interest and activity should come as
of Western democracies, and that Singapore’s
to maritime security efforts, including counter-
no surprise. And after China’s special envoy
harmonious diversity was premised on a policy
piracy operations and other combined missions.
to Syria, Xie Xiaoyan, objected to the fact that
Retired General David Petraeus, formerly
Sonoura had raised the issues of the South and
the director of the CIA and head of United
East China Seas in the session, Petraeus sug-
Fourth Plenary Session: Widening Middle
States Central Command, outlined four main
gested this underscored the need for further
Eastern Security Partnerships
objectives for wider regional partnering. These
strategic dialogue.
The fourth plenary session was opened by the
included maintaining the free flow of energy
State Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan,
from the region (still a vital US national interest
Fifth Plenary Session: Towards a New
Kentaro Sonoura. He underscored the close
despite the country’s increased energy self-
Regional Security Architecture
relationship between the Middle East and East
sufficiency) and defeating terrorism. The list
The concluding plenary session addressed the
Asia, but suggested increasing globalisation
also included preventing the proliferation of
opportunities and challenges for a new collec-
of enforcing racial and religious quotas.
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MANAMA DIALOGUE
tive security system in the Middle East. The Secretary General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, expressed his scepticism about the elaboration of a new regional system, given the unprecedented instability and division of the region. He said the lack of regional consensus was particularly salient in light of the crises in Syria, Iraq, Yemen or Libya but also on the Iran issue. The priority, he stressed, was not to reshape a security architecture but rather to promote dialogue, discuss the principles of any future collective arrangements and to launch a Marshall Plan for the Middle East. Aboul Gheit said the ongoing ‘unbalance of power’ was not favourable to regional stability, which was dramatically affected by tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. He called on Iran to amend its expansionist policy and not attempt to dominate the entire Arab world. He
Dr Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary General, League of Arab States
Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Pakistan
mine the Middle East’s Arab identity, and, more
the ongoing Israeli–Arab conflict, which was
tries enhancing trade, economic migration and
importantly, Shiites should not have the oppor-
still feeding injustice and extremism. He said
defence. He said Pakistan could play the role
tunity to ‘set up their own Arab league’.
the Israeli occupation was comparable to the
of a ‘balancer’ to enhance the Gulf’s security
Aboul Gheit identified three conditions for
Iranian occupation of the Middle East, and
framework. Located at the crossroads of the
regional stability. Firstly, the principle of state
Israeli nuclear deterrence was a sign of double
Gulf–Asia route, the country enjoyed a strategic
sovereignty should be respected. He blamed
standards in the region.
position that might be useful for the Gulf region
also said the presence of non-Arab States (such as Iran, Israel and Turkey) should not under-
Iran for relying on ‘sects’ to destabilise the
Pakistan’s adviser to the Prime Minister
in three ways. Firstly, Pakistan could share its
region. He called for a new Westphalia agree-
on foreign affairs, Sartaj Aziz, stressed that a
experience in countering violent extremism.
ment, without any external interference and
regional security architecture must be a collec-
Secondly, it could be a mediator or a facilita-
respecting the principles of democracy, good
tive design based on a comprehensive approach.
tor between Muslim countries. Thirdly, it could
governance and the protection of minorities.
He called for the containment of xenophobia
contribute to the strengthening of economic
Secondly, he warned against the death of the
and nationalism, and the adaptation of collec-
relationships between Asia and the Gulf.
Sykes–Picot agreement and the attempts to
tive security measures to meet new challenges,
Answering a question on Pakistan’s relation-
change the historical Arab nation-states’ bor-
in particular terrorism. Aziz argued that the suc-
ships with Iran and his country’s refusal to join
ders. Contesting the independence aspirations
cess of the Pakistani counter-terrorist policy was
the Saudi Arabia-led intervention in Yemen,
of some communities (including the Kurds), he
thanks to multidimensional military operations,
Aziz explained that his country ‘has excellent
mentioned decentralised systems as a possible
well-coordinated intelligence and strong sup-
relations with the Gulf, Iran is our neighbour,
solution that would protect communities while
port from political parties.
[and] a large percentage of our population is
preserving the state structure. Thirdly, he insisted on the need to solve
Aziz praised the close relationships between Pakistan and Gulf Cooperation Council coun-
Shiites, so we are handling this relationship with Iran very delicately’.
Dr Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary General, League of Arab States; Sir John Jenkins, Executive Director, IISS–Middle East; Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Pakistan
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MANAMA DIALOGUE
Special Session 1: STABILISING AND REBUILDING YEMEN The first special session assessed a subject
Iran identified by one panel-
raised at various times over the weekend.
list as supplying weapons to
Yemen’s strategic location and the humanitar-
Houthi rebels.
ian suffering in the country currently made
One speaker praised the
its crisis important, said one speaker, while
response to Houthi military
another participant indicated that the complex-
moves against President Hadi
ity of the situation in Yemen made it harder for
in 2014 by Gulf Cooperation
policymakers to find solutions. Discussions
Council states, led by Saudi
focused on the humanitarian effects of the vio-
Arabia, as ‘an urgent and nec-
lence on Yemen’s population and the broader
essary intervention’.
impact on the country’s infrastructure, and
But regional states were
economic and political future, as well as the
also trying to put the political
measures being taken at regional and interna-
process back on track, with
tional levels to alleviate human suffering.
one panellist highlighting the
Recent Yemeni politics formed a backdrop
draft
constitution
(created
Displacement site in Khamer, Yemen (UN/OCHA/Philippe Kropf)
to the session, with speakers tracing various
in Abu Dhabi) that would
national, regional and international political
lead – one participant noted – to a federated
However, rebuilding and assistance were
initiatives designed to end the fighting and
Yemen of six regions. It was also important to
needed immediately – not at the end of the
arrive at a political solution; speakers also pos-
consider ways of rebuilding Yemen’s security
conflict. It was suggested this work could take
ited reasons for the failure of these initiatives
institutions, and to improve the transparency
place in specific areas as soon as they were free
to date. While the high level of international
and accountability of aid. Its delivery would
of violence. This would allow assistance to
support for Yemen and the government of
reduce instability, and could be achieved in
arrive quickly and also demonstrate the bene-
President Hadi was noted, the influence of cer-
a decentralised way, in coordination with the
fits of peace to the broader population; it could
tain outside actors was also highlighted, with
government and private sector.
also improve stability and security.
Special Session 2: DEFENCE COOPERATION IN THE GULF Despite recent progress, Gulf Cooperation
operation between GCC members and their
members to work better together to counter
Council
obstacles
partner nations. The Combined Maritime
and deter Iran’s substantial conventionally
addressing the region’s threats and security
Forces provides three task forces cover-
armed ballistic missile arsenal. While GCC
challenges.
ing counter-terrorism and counter-piracy
nations have invested in missile defence, their
The special session on defence cooperation
roles, and brings together the GCC states
systems are structured at a national level, even
considered the aims of the GCC’s militaries to
and a wider coalition. Some 31 nations work
though a regional sensor and missile intercep-
work more closely together, identifying areas
together under the Combined Maritime
tor architecture would be far more effective.
of success and those where greater progress
Forces banner.
(GCC)
countries
face
The issue of command and control, a core
Ballistic missile defence was suggested as
element of ballistic missile defence and any
The maritime domain was highlighted as
another area ripe for immediate cooperation.
effective military capability, was also the
providing a potential model for closer co-
The United States has long encouraged GCC
subject of discussion. While military leaders
was required.
understand that efficient command and control is critical, concerns were raised that this was not sufficiently understood in the wider political community. This could result in an inability to deliver ‘unity of purpose or effort’. Joint training and exercises were also suggested as a means of furthering cooperative ambitions, for example by building trust across national borders. Even in areas such as the maritime domain where closer cooperation was evident, other concerns remained. It was claimed that GCC states continued to under-invest in their mariUnited Arab Emireates Air Force F-16 Desert Falcon during an exercise in the US (USAF/Benjamin Wilson)
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time forces structure.
IISS NEWS
MANAMA DIALOGUE
Special Session 3: CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY IN SYRIA This session assessed the state of the conflict in
Whether and how regional supporters
abounded, but Russia’s intervention made it
Syria and the prospect of a diplomatic resolu-
of the rebellion would continue their sup-
the central actor in this conflict. Differences
tion to the crisis.
port was of crucial importance. Participants
between Iran and Russia could be exploited
The military and political repercussions of
stressed the major contribution of foreign
in the future, participants thought, but their
Aleppo’s fall to government and allied forces
fighters to the Assad military effort, notably
alignment seemed strong and enduring. The
were central to the discussion. It was agreed
Iranian-backed militias from Lebanon, Iraq
regional consequences of the conflict were also
that a regime victory in Aleppo would not
and elsewhere. Speakers said that while inter-
highlighted, notably the security, political and
signal the end of the armed opposition, but the
national attention was currently focused on
financial costs shouldered by Lebanon, Jordan
opening of a new, more complex chapter in the
Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State, also known
and Turkey.
country’s civil war.
as ISIS or ISIL, it should also recognise the role played by the militias.
USAF F-15 over Iraq during Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve
It was recommended that the UN adopt a new approach to solving the conflict, with
Participants agreed on the
the organisation’s incoming secretary-general
urgent need for a ceasefire
leading the mediation himself. It was widely
and United Nations humani-
agreed that US–Russian geostrategic agree-
tarian assistance, and on the
ment was required for any real progress to
importance of isolating and
take place, but the likely substance and param-
fighting
terror-
eters of such an understanding were unclear,
ist groups. However, they
in part because of the unpredictability of the
said the need to differenti-
incoming Trump administration. A political
ate between legitimate rebel
solution remained the only viable way to end
and terrorist groups was
the conflict, although the key parties differed
paramount to any interna-
on what such a solution would contain. But
tional effort. Scepticism over
they agreed only a political deal would allow
Russia’s claims to be fight-
for the return of refugees and a programme of
ing ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra
international reconstruction assistance.
UN-listed
Special Session 4: INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGAINST TERRORISM The fourth special session considered the chal-
also known as ISIS or ISIL. Nevertheless, that
improving the capability of its allies and local
lenges to improving intelligence sharing and,
does not mean that the risk of international
forces, who can lead the battle against ter-
more broadly, international interstate coop-
terrorism has disappeared from Afghanistan.
rorism at local and regional levels. Indeed,
eration in the fight against terror. Participants
Participants also discussed the issue of infor-
terrorism is a regional problem and as such
agreed that a common definition of ‘terrorism’
mation sharing between government agencies:
there is only a regional solution. Regarding the
was needed in order to identify the threat and
there was no global list of individuals fighting
ideological dimension of the fight against ter-
its future. Then it would be important to focus
for ISIS in Syria.
rorism, all speakers stressed education as the
on factors explaining the emergence of the threat rather than on specific groups.
The United States position is that the
key element in responding to the brainwashing
training of counter-terrorist forces is key to
of young people by terror groups such as ISIS.
In cooperating, participants thought states should try to reduce ungoverned or poorly governed spaces in countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and Afghanistan, and build a counter-narrative against the ideology used by terrorist recruiters. Terror groups’ ability to use the internet as a multifunctional tool, inspiring and directing supporters, was identified as a particular challenge. Therefore, states would need to invest in long-term strategies taking into account the need to be consistent, patient and to provide resources. Five to six years previously the focus had been on Afghanistan, but attention had then shifted to Syria and the Islamic State,
IISS NEWS
Armed police in central Paris (Mstyslav Chernov)
WINTER 2016 | 9
SOUTH ASIA
IISS Convenes Unique Gathering of South Asian Intelligence Chiefs Intelligence chiefs and top-ranking intelligence officials from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan spoke alongside one another at a recent conference organised by the IISS in Muscat, Oman. It was the first time that these officials had ever appeared together at any conference – a testament to the institute’s convening power. The officials formed the distinguished panel in a plenary session at the tenth ‘Track 1.5’ South Asia Security Conference, held from 21–23 October in partnership with the United States National Defense University Near East and South Asia Center for Strategic Study. The officials discussed their efforts to counter Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, which is seeking greater influence in South Asia.
Intelligence chiefs and top-ranking officials from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan spoke alongside one another for the first time to discuss efforts to counter ISIS
The South Asia Security Conference is one of only two meetings, both organised by the IISS, attended by Indian and Pakistani intelligence officials. Their participation as speakers at this year’s conference was all the more notable as it happened at a time of heightened India–Pakistan tensions. The event took place in arguably the most adverse regional context since the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks. That year’s Oman conference took place with one aggrieved party, India. In 2016, there were three: India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. A deterioration in relations over Kashmir has seen India and Pakistan trade belligerent rhetoric, which has been largely matched by nationalistic media commentary. Tensions have been heightened for ten months and there is little prospect of better relations in the near future. While India and Pakistan have both stated they would like to engage in official talks, each has clear preconditions – India on terrorism and Pakistan on Kashmir.
Dr Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran; Senior Consultant on Foreign Policy to the Government of Iran; Riaz Hussain Khokhar, Former Foreign Secretary, Pakistan; Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive; Umer Daudzai, Former Minister of Interior, Afghanistan; Ambassador Manpreet Vohra, Ambassador of India to Afghanistan
relations, Arabian Gulf security, media and crisis management, and what
In October, 75 countries pledged US$15.2 billion in development aid to
the new US administration’s perspective of South Asia was likely to be. For
Afghanistan. But the reality is that the country is still in the grip of Taliban
the first time in this conference series, there was a session devoted to the
terror attacks. There have been no recent talks between the Afghan gov-
China–Pakistan Economic Corridor.
ernment and the Taliban under the Quadrilateral Coordination Group
Joining senior intelligence officials at the conference were senior Indian
umbrella. This has pushed friction between Afghanistan and Pakistan to
and Pakistani policymakers, as well as senior Afghan, United Kingdom and
an all-time high and seen levels of military cooperation hit a new low.
US officials. This year saw senior Chinese diplomats and Iranian academics
Nevertheless, efforts to promote Afghan-led and Afghan-owned rec-
taking part for the first time. A quarter of the 75 conference participants
onciliation continue. And the last year has seen an encouraging level of
were senior government officials and military officers, half were attending
coordination among major powers as they work to promote stability in
for the first time, and half were from South Asia and the neighbourhood.
South Asia. National debates about how to engage with the major global
The Muscat conference is the largest of the private ‘Track 1.5’ off-the-record
powers have spanned a broad range of opinion, from people ready to trade
meetings that the IISS convenes annually on South Asian regional security
inclusivity for greater or faster dividends and others keen to protect South
issues. It marked the 13th year of cooperation between the IISS and the
Asia’s neighbourhood civility in the longer run.
Sultanate of Oman. The IISS expresses its gratitude to His Majesty Sultan
It was against this backdrop that the conference sought to inform and
Qaboos bin Said al-Said for his continued support for this series of confer-
influence regional policy formulation. As well as the subject of the Islamic
ences. The institute expects to build on this year’s unprecedented level of
State, participants discussed India–Pakistan tensions, Pakistan–Afghanistan
official participation at next year’s conference.
Dr Li Li, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations
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The conference took place at the Al Bustan Palace, A Ritz-Carlton Hotel, Muscat, Oman
IISS NEWS
SOUTH ASIA
Key security trends in South Asia Heightened tensions and sharper rhetoric between India and Pakistan were predicted at a discussion event on key security trends in South Asia. Experts said increased friction, triggered by a worsening of relations over Kashmir, might be a daily reality – at least for the ensuing months. The event at the IISS in London featured Jack Gill, Associate Professor at the NESA Center for Strategic Studies, and three IISS staff – Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Ben Barry, and Research Associate for South Asia Antoine Levesques.
(l-r) IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Ben Barry; Jack Gill, Associate Professor at the NESA Center for Strategic Studies; IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul RoyChaudhury; and Research Associate for South Asia Antoine Levesques
Following the attack on an Indian army camp in Uri on 18 September,
also known as ISIS or ISIL, in South Asia. Some argue that the group has
India had admitted – for the first time – to carrying out what it called ‘lim-
little opportunity in the region while others are more concerned, citing the
ited counter-terror operations’ against militant camps across the Line of
spread of ISIS propaganda and claims of involvement in recent attacks in
Control (LoC). Significantly, this had reversed a strongly held belief within
Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
the Indian security establishment in the sanctity of the LoC. But Pakistan
Bilateral security cooperation across the Afghanistan–Pakistan border
strongly denied such operations had taken place, suggesting an attempt to
has deteriorated, with political friction between the two countries at an
divert attention away from India’s troubles in Kashmir. The South Asian
all-time high. Consequently, substantive military cooperation between
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit scheduled to be
Afghanistan and Pakistan is at a historic low. The China–Pakistan
held in Islamabad in early November had been cancelled.
Economic Corridor represents an opportunity to enhance regional con-
The event on 31 October heard that the media, especially nationalistic
nectivity in one of the least economically integrated regions in the world,
voices on electronic and social media, presented one of the biggest threats
with the United States notably lending its support. China is also playing a
to the crisis management process in India–Pakistan bilateral dynamics.
growing and more visible role in Afghanistan.
Specialists remain divided on the nature of the danger from Islamic State,
Listen to the discussion.
IISS–ASIA
26th IISS Fullerton Lecture: The Value of the Commonwealth The Commonwealth of Nations is using its unique strengths to tackle climate change and empower young people, the organisation’s SecretaryGeneral has said. The Rt Hon Patricia Scotland QC discussed the Commonwealth’s achievements and challenges as she gave the 26th IISS Fullerton Lecture in Singapore on 4 November. Sec-Gen Scotland said the strength of the Commonwealth was reflected
Commonwealth Finance Ministers Meeting (Commonwealth)
in the depth and nature of its composition. She described it as a network of networks, bringing together a range of organisations, civil-society
to open up more opportunities and freedom for all. She argued that the
movements, professional groups and individuals, all working towards a
Commonwealth was well placed to achieve these goals through its shared
common goal of peace and stability. She said this spirit could be seen in the
pathways, common institutions and culture. She gave the example of bilat-
organisation’s theme for 2016 – an inclusive Commonwealth.
eral trade between Commonwealth member states. This costed, on average,
Sec-Gen Scotland highlighted the promotion of sustainable devel-
19% less than similar trade activities between other country pairings.
opment as a policy priority. She reflected that the Commonwealth had
An audience of 160 diplomats, officials, scholars and businessmen
extended its influence beyond its member states, with steps to tackle cli-
heard that the common language, law and institutional frameworks of
mate change one recent success. The consensus agreed by member states in
member states could be further leveraged to develop shared approaches
the Commonwealth’s statement on climate action was eventually adopted
and grasp opportunities. Sec-Gen Scotland said the Commonwealth was
at the Paris Climate Conference. The Commonwealth was using a collec-
developing practical solutions to handle corruption, and ensuring equal
tive partnership model and innovative thinking to explore new ways of
rights for women were embedded in legal frameworks and at every politi-
reversing climate change, particularly through the use of technology.
cal and economic level. She concluded by saying the Commonwealth had
The Commonwealth was also promoting the economic empowerment and engagement of young people, Sec-Gen Scotland said, with member states strengthening democratic and socio-economic institutions
IISS NEWS
shown it could make a significant contribution to sustainable development around the world. Watch the lecture.
WINTER 2016 | 11
SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT
The Strategic Logic of Organised Crime Past collaboration between the Italian mafia and United States government was explored at an event on the impact of organised crime. Dr James Cockayne, Head of the UN University Office at the UN Headquarters in New York, presented his research into the power struggle between states and criminal entities. Dr Cockayne emphasised criminals’ efforts to influence domestic and international political outcomes. He was
Drugs seizures in Mexico
accompanied by Bianca Jinga, Governance Advisor at the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID), who
middle-income nations too, making it difficult to prioritise responses to
highlighted the developmental challenges caused by criminal infiltration.
the problem. The event at the IISS in London on 14 October was hosted by
She stressed that it was not only the poorest or most fragile countries at risk
Virginia Comolli, IISS Senior Fellow for Security and Development.
– organised crime seemed to be a constant presence in stable but stagnant
Watch the discussion.
Jihadism Transformed: Al-Qaeda and Islamic State’s Global Battle of Ideas Global jihadist narratives have evolved dramatically in recent years, changes which were explored in a panel discussion on 17 November. The event featured United Kingdom Government expert Dr Simon Staffell, who had recently examined the extent to which the rise of Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, had taken control of the jihadist narrative from al-Qaeda. Martha Turnbull, Head of the National Security Research Group at the United Kingdom Foreign and Commonwealth Office, discussed the case study of Afghanistan – while IISS Senior Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli examined lessons from the Lake Chad Basin region. The meeting at the IISS in London was opened by Dr Akil N. Awan, Associate Professor in Modern History, Political Violence and Terrorism at Royal Holloway, and chaired by Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East. Listen to the event.
Displaced families in the Lake Chad region of Nigeria (MackenzieKnowles-Coursin/ICRC)
The Dead Sea: Powerful Film Reveals Abuse of Migrants A private screening of a powerful short film The Dead Sea revealed the
IISS Senior Fellow for Security and
appalling conditions and human-rights violations faced by migrants in
Development,
Libyan detention centres. The film was introduced by writer and direc-
Konstantinos Antonopoulos, Policy
tor Stuart Gatt, who explained the motivation behind the project. A
and Advocacy Advisor at Médecins
panel discussion took place after the screening at the IISS in London
Sans Frontières, and Markus Geisser,
on 25 October. It addressed broader issues of human displacement, the
Senior
practical and legal challenges faced by people working on the frontline
Policy Advisor at the International
of the migration crisis, and governments’ often weak commitment to
Committee of the Red Cross.
and
Humanitarian
also
featured
Affairs
and
addressing the crisis. The discussion was chaired by Virginia Comolli,
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IISS NEWS
ARMED CONFLICT
African Youth: Addressing the Root Causes of Insecurity and Migration Africa’s counterterrorism and migration policies are driving young people to join radical groups or move abroad, according to post-conflict expert Marije Balt. On 3 October, Balt, director of the research consultancy SpringFactor and a former Dutch government diplomat, spoke at the IISS in London on the challenges of addressing insecurity and migration among the continent’s radicalised young people. She said extensive interviews revealed one of the main issues forcing young people to migrate or join radical groups was the denial of access to jobs, land, and social and
Interpol conduct an operation against child trafficking (Interpol)
political positions. This left them having to cope in the informal sector. Balt discussed how migrant smuggling had overtaken all other forms
corrupt state structures. Balt argued for a locally led, politically smart
of smuggling, becoming one of the biggest sources of revenue for armed
approach working directly with young people, rather than through state
groups. In 2015, it generated an estimated revenue of US$255 million–
elites. The discussion was chaired by Anastasia Voronkova, IISS Research
US$323 million in Libya alone. She said the problems facing young
Fellow for Armed Conflict.
people would be difficult to address if work continued through weak and
Watch the full discussion.
It’s a Deal: the Business of Peacebuilding A meeting on 1 November addressed the ways politicians, armed groups, military personnel and international agencies bargain over economic and political resources during and after peace negotiations. Anastasia Voronkova, IISS Research Fellow for Armed Conflict, hosted the discussion at the IISS in London with Dr Elke Grawert, Senior Researcher at the Bonn International Center for Conversion. Dr Grawert emphasised that the ability of domestic and international elites to stay in power increasingly depended on their ability to buy the loyalty of rivals and followers. In these circumstances it was almost impossible to achieve sustainable piece, she concluded, as elite groups would strategically exploit the conflict and any peace deals to increase their share of resources and expand their network of alliances.
US Army Lt Gen. Ken Keen, Joint Task Force-Haiti, greets a UN peacekeeper in Portau-Prince, 2010 (US Navy/Spike Call)
Radicalisation in Nigeria: Former Members Shed Light on Boko Haram New analysis of al-Shabaab in Somalia and Boko Haram in Nigeria has
Mahdi Abdile, Senior Researcher at the European Institute of Peace, pre-
highlighted contrasts between the two groups. At a talk on 2 December,
sented research based on interviews with former members of both groups, as well as a survey of civil-society representatives in the two countries. Abdile underscored the differences between the profiles of group members in terms of age, education, role within the organisation and reasons for joining, including financial incentives. He stressed the much more prominent role of women in Boko Haram, and discussed avenues of recruitment. He said disillusionment with Boko Haram was very strong among its former members, who recognised the need for a military solution to the current conflict. While former members of al-Shabaab overwhelmingly saw the state as their main enemy, former Boko Haram members largely expressed trust in their president and the institutions of the state. Challenges to the reintegration of former militants were also highlighted in the talk at the IISS in London.
Nigerian soldiers prepare for the campaign against Boko Haram (VOA/Nicolas Pinault)
IISS NEWS
Listen to the discussion.
WINTER 2016 | 13
DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS
Beyond the Iraq Inquiry: Fresh Perspectives on Britain’s Difficult War Britain’s war in Iraq remains controversial, particularly the difficult postconflict stabilisation of Basra and southern Iraq. In 2010 the British Army produced its own internal analysis of these operations and their lessons. The document was the result of a year’s unconstrained investigation, and its findings included some challenging and uncomfortable assessments. The report was not made publicly available at the time. However, after the release of Sir John Chilcot’s independent Iraq inquiry in July, the army report was declassified. At the IISS in London on 10 October, its author Ben Barry – IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare – explained how the analysis was conducted and outlined the report’s main conclusions. He identified the extent to which the hard lessons of Basra were applied by British forces in Afghanistan, and their influence on the subsequent evolution of the British Army. From this perspective he critically analysed the Chilcot inquiry findings and outlined the implications of both reports for UK defence. Listen to a recording of the event
A UK RAF helicopter delivers supplies to a patrol in Maysan Province, Iraq in 2007 (Crown Copyright/Ian Forsyth)
Military Innovation and Adaptation: Keeping the Cutting Edge Sharp Armed forces cannot succeed on operations without innovating in peace-
The strategy also calls on US forces to aggressively invest in high-end
time and adapting in wartime. On 23 November, Ben Barry, IISS Senior
innovative technologies, in pursuit of enhanced asymmetric and hybrid
Fellow for Land Warfare, shared the early findings of his work analysing
capabilities. The United Kingdom’s defence innovation initiative seeks to
the linked challenges of military innovation and adaptation, and identified
achieve similar effects.
pointers to success. He also assessed key implications for defence minis-
Barry said the efforts of the US and UK had encountered as much fail-
tries, armed forces and defence industries, as well as wider implications
ure as success – innovation and adaptation had often been very difficult.
for the public and private sectors, during the event at the IISS in London.
During recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, US-led forces struggled to
Military innovation has recently become a topic of considerable inter-
adapt to operations against irregular opponents in complex and dynamic
est, partly as a result of the United States’ third offset strategy. This
environments, as well as the unforeseen character of post-conflict stabilisa-
strategy has seen US forces pursue innovative practices and organisational
tion. Adaptations were made, but at a heavy cost in time, money, avoidable
structures to meet their needs faster, more efficiently and more effectively.
casualties, and political and military credibility.
FUTURE CONFLICT AND CYBER SECURITY
The New Jihadists Support from foreign fighters for jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, leaves the West increasingly vulnerable to terrorism, security expert Professor Peter Neumann told an audience on 17 October. Neumann, Professor of Security Studies at King’s College London and Director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, spoke at the IISS in London about what he called the new jihadists, and the threat they pose to the West. He said the high number of foreign fighters joining the conflict in Syria and the rise of
A memorial to Bataclan attacks in Paris (Flickr/Takver)
‘stay home supporters’ were two key trends unique to the context. The presence of these groups ensured Islamic State would leave a legacy of
conflict suggested Western governments should expect to deal with the
radicalised people posing a danger to the West, long after the organisa-
threat posed by these new jihadists for at least the following decade.
tion itself was no longer a threat. Trends observed after the Afghanistan
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Listen to the event.
IISS NEWS
NON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR POLICY
Lively discussion at largest-ever EU Non-Proliferation conference The fifth EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference took place in Brussels on 3–4 November 2016. More than 285 specialists from 61 countries and seven international organisations took part in this year’s event, making it the largest iteration to date. Lively discussion and debate filled the two days, both in Brussels and on social media; the hashtag #EUNonProlif trended on Twitter in Belgium and during the conference the IISS Twitter account was seen or interacted with 126,000 times. After positive developments in 2015, notably the nuclear accord with Iran, 2016 saw a number of non-proliferation setbacks. These included chemical attacks in Syria, nuclear tests in North Korea and a move away from nuclear disarmament towards more overt deterrence. Opening the conference, High
Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary, CTBTO and Sanam Shantyaei, International Affairs Editor, France 24
Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini said these developments highlighted the importance of the non-
The second keynote speech featured a predictably engaging presenta-
proliferation and disarmament community in finding new solutions, new
tion from Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Test
initiatives, and new pathways towards a more peaceful global order.
Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO), who emphasised the importance of
This message was echoed in a keynote address from Kim Won-soo, UN
the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty as a central pillar for all disarmament,
Under Secretary-General and High Representative for Disarmament Affairs,
non-proliferation and arms-control efforts. His remarks drew connections
who urged attendees to channel their cumulative experience in building
with additional plenary sessions entitled ‘Disarmament and Deterrence –
bridges between disparate communities, in order to combat a tapestry of
Bridging the Divide’ and ‘The Iran Accord One Year On’.
entrenched and emerging threats. The new vulnerabilities of our increas-
A dozen special sessions addressed numerous other issues including
ingly networked world were discussed at length in a plenary session titled
conventional arms control, space security, sanctions policy, missile defence,
‘The Impact of Technological Change on Security and Non-Proliferation’.
biological and chemical disarmament, and regional security concerns.
OBITUARY
DESMOND BALL – IN MEMORIAM With the death of Des Ball, the global community of security specialists has
issues were hotly dis-
lost a leading thinker, one who made a major contribution to the work and
puted inside and outside
reputation of the IISS. His outstanding doctoral thesis was the basis for his
of government.
acclaimed 1980 book, Politics and Force Levels: the Strategic Missile Program
Des was a first rate indi-
of the Kennedy Administration. The book made Des’s name internationally,
vidual scholar, but also a
and from then on he was regarded as one of the major contributors to the
great team player. He was
international debate on nuclear weapons policy.
a man of the left but also a
In 1974, I recruited Des to a research fellowship in the Strategic and
Des Ball
realist regarding the role of
Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University. There he
force in international affairs. He felt a duty to bring forth into public debate
worked on titles including The Defence of Australia: Fundamental New Aspects
key facts and opinions on which the security of millions of people might
and The Future of Tactical Airpower in the Defence of Australia.
depend. Doing so was risky work that required careful judgement and a
In 1979–80, Christoph Bertram invited Des to come to the IISS as a
remarkable capacity to impress and engage with highly placed individuals.
Research Associate. Des’s notable Adelphi paper, Can Nuclear War Be
Des took on the headship of the Australian National University’s
Controlled?, was published in 1981. The author’s answer to the question
Strategy and Defence Studies Centre from 1984 to 1991, and served on the
posed in his title was clear, unequivocal and convincing: nuclear war was
IISS Council for six years in the 1980s.
not likely to prove controllable, despite all the technology available to the United States and Soviet Union.
He continued to work as a member of the centre after 1991, contributing powerfully, despite a long illness, until his death on 12 October 2016.
Des’s argument torpedoed some important hopes in the US and else-
He led a wonderfully fruitful life, and achieved international fame and
where, and fuelled dissent on nuclear-weapons policy within NATO
influence. Yet he never lost his gentle, considerate and tolerant nature. He
discussion circles. He followed his first Adelphi with another in 1983,
will be sadly missed by all who worked with him across the world.
Targeting for Strategic Deterrence, which moved the debate on counter-
By Professor Robert O’Neill, IISS Director, 1982–87.
force and counter-value targeting policies forward at a time when these
Read the full obituary.
IISS NEWS
WINTER 2016 | 15
IISS–AMERICAS
The Islamic State: Between Aspirations and Reality An IISS–Americas event examined the global prospects of Islamic State, also
gains and successive losses, Dr Lahoud discussed the impact of intra-jihadi
known as ISIS or ISIL, as its current state-building project fails. Dr Nelly
conflict, namely the conflict between al-Qaeda and ISIS, as well as how
Lahoud, IISS Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, analysed how the same
the organisation’s official publications define the role of women in its
ideological tools that once propelled the momentum of the start-up state are
militant worldview. The event on 17 November, chaired by IISS–Americas
now generating ideological uncertainties among the group’s followers.
Executive Director Mark Fitzpatrick, was the first instalment of the IISS
As well as examining the factors that contributed to the group’s quick
Manama Dialogue Discourse Series.
PUBLICATIONS
IISS Strategic Survey 2016: US Launch Chairing the Untied States launch of the 50th IISS Strategic Survey, editor
that in light of the complex and uncertain stra-
Dr Nicholas Redman explained the book’s argument that the geopolitical
tegic realities in the region, any US pullback
and security infrastructure built after the Second World War had not kept
from the Middle East would be constrained.
pace with changes in the balance of power, prompting rising powers to
Virginia Comolli, IISS Senior Fellow
explore alternative avenues to satisfy their desire for greater international
for Security and Development, presented
status. In tandem, the norms and rules of international behaviour had
a counter-narrative to the idea of a rising
been challenged.
Africa. She said new studies pointed to highly
During the discussion on 20 October at IISS–Americas in Washington
centralised
middle
classes,
considerably
DC, panellist Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies, argued the outgoing US
smaller than previous analysis suggested.
administration had pursued a grand strategy of discrimination, acting as a
Falling commodity prices and China’s economic slowdown had forced
‘selective superpower’ to secure the country’s status, preserving resources
major African economies to cut budgets and limit spending, Comolli said.
and avoiding imperial overstretch. This policy created strategic space for
She also highlighted a trend of increasing democratic illegitimacy. Finally,
other actors, most notably for Russia to act in Syria. Ward argued the next
Comolli pointed out that Africa was undergoing a militarisation of sorts,
president would need resolve to confront the current strategic situation in
by countries looking to set up bases on the continent.
Europe and prevent it from worsening, while also confronting an increasingly assertive and decisive China.
Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director IISS–Americas, addressed the pronounced drift away from nuclear disarmament. He listed three of President
Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, looked at
Barack Obama’s achievements in the field: concluding the New START
the situation in Russia and Eurasia, pointing to three drivers of strategic
Treaty, curtailing Iran’s nuclear weapons options for a decade or more,
change: Moscow’s Syria intervention, the conflict in Ukraine, and the new
and strengthening the security of civilian nuclear materials. However,
Cold War-like atmosphere in Russia–West relations. IISS Senior Fellow for
Fitzpatrick said, there had been many disappointments, including Russia’s
US Defence Jonathan Stevenson discussed US foreign policy in the Middle
boycott of the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit and the absence of further
East, noting rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. He concluded
US–Russia arms control talks.
New Adelphi Book
of Western and Russian policies in
Forthcoming January 2017
providing a balanced assessment of
Adelphi 460
both Russia and the West’s actions
Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia
post-2014. They argue that all gov-
By Samuel Charap and Timothy J. Colton
ernments involved must recognise
Disorder erupted in Ukraine in 2014, involving the overthrow of a sitting
the failure of current policies and
government, the Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula, and a
commit to finding mutually accept-
violent insurrection, supported by Moscow, in the east of the country. This
able alternatives. With talk in world
crisis has yielded a ruinous outcome, in which all the parties are worse off
capitals of a new cold war, Everyone
and international security has deteriorated. The upshot has been systematic
Loses provides a timely and read-
losses for Russia, the West and the countries caught in between.
able analysis of how we arrived at
In this new Adelphi book, Samuel Charap and Timothy J. Colton examine the roots of the Ukraine crisis, offering a coherent narrative
16
|
WINTER 2016
post-Soviet Eurasia since 1991, and
this dangerous juncture and how we might get out of it.
IISS NEWS
PUBLICATIONS
Survival: Global Politics and Strategy: December 2016–January 2017 In the December 2016–January 2017 issue of Survival,
airpower in modern war; Emile Hokayem and David
Gordon Barrass revisits the story of Able Archer 83; Ash
Roberts analyse the war in Yemen; Matthew Harries dis-
Carter explains the United States’ developing policy towards
cusses Britain’s post-referendum politics; Massimo Franco
Russia; Jennifer Harris urges a geopolitical approach to
outlines the Vatican’s relationship to the US presidential
TTIP; Hal Brands and Peter Feaver question the current
candidates; Mark Gilbert and Shashank Joshi contribute
assumptions governing US grand strategy; Lora Saalman
review essays; Jeffrey Mazo, David Unger, Hanns Maull
identifies the lessons China has drawn from the Ukraine
and Jonathan Stevenson review new books; and Dana
crisis; Richard Hooker explores the role of American
Allin confronts the prospect of a Trump presidency.
Strategic Dossier: Missile-Defence Cooperation in the Gulf
in Manama, London and Washington DC. Other contributors included Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace, and Andrew Kelly, Research Analyst for the Middle East. IISS–Middle East hosted around 50 diplomats, military personnel,
This quarter saw the release of Missile-Defence Cooperation in the Gulf, the
government officials and media representatives on 25 October for the
latest IISS Strategic Dossier, which analyses the optimal political and tech-
initial Manama launch of Missile-Defence Cooperation in the Gulf. Dodge
nical approach for all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to counter
and Elleman presented their findings and took questions while Sir John
Iran’s growing stockpile of ballistic missiles. It fuses IISS technical knowl-
Jenkins, Executive Director of IISS–Middle East, chaired the discussion.
edge with regional security expertise to
The Dossier was also the subject of a well-attended Special Event at the
explore a central question: why, given
IISS Manama Dialogue, on 10 December, and was endorsed by General
the definite conventional threat posed
(Retd) David Petraeus, who described it as a ‘superb’ and ‘timely’ study.
by Iranian missiles, haven’t GCC states
The Washington DC launch took place on 22 November, and was
taken bigger steps to cooperate to defend
chaired by IISS–Americas Executive Director Mark Fitzpatrick. Dodge
themselves?
and Elleman fielded diverse questions on topics such as the impact of the
The Dossier was launched by two of its contributing editors – Professor Toby
Military Balance 2017
conflict in Yemen on their research, the political position of Oman and the danger posed by a potential failing of the Iran nuclear deal.
Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow on
On 1 December, Elleman and Dodge presented Missile-Defence Cooperation
the Middle East, and Michael Elleman,
in the Gulf at Arundel House in London. After the experts’ summaries there
Consulting Senior Fellow on Missile
was a lively Q&A session that focused on the technical side of the Dossier,
Defence – at the IISS regional offices
featuring discussion of different missile-defence systems.
New ‘Military Balance+’ database coming soon The IISS is pleased to announce the launch in February 2017 of Military Balance+, a new online database that will allow users to customise, view, compare and download IISS data instantly. Continually monitored and updated by our team of defence and military analysts, our data will enable users across government, the armed forces, the private sector, as well academia and the media, to make faster and betterinformed decisions. This innovative new platform was previewed for the first time at the IISS Manama Dialogue, held in Bahrain on 9–11 December, where Joseph Dempsey, Research
The forthcoming Military
Associate, Military Balance Online, was on hand to give
Balance 2017 will be launched
delegates demonstrations.
on 14 February 2017.
IISS NEWS
Watch the Military Balance + animation to find out more.
How to contact the IISS >
WINTER 2016 | 17