IISS Newsletter Summer 2014

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July 2014

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

IISS Fullerton Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Key Addresses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Discussion Meetings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Russia–Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . . . 13

Membership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Climate Change and Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

The 13th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2014

Chuck Hagel Secretary of Defense, US

Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong Deputy Chief, General Staff Department, People’s Liberation Army, China

Shinzo Abe Prime Minister of Japan

The 13th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, convened in

at ministerial level. There were particularly strong

speaking at the opening dinner. Introducing him,

Singapore from 30 May–1 June 2014, marked a

delegations from not only China, Japan, and

John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief

step-change from previous events in the annual

the United States, but also Australia, Cambodia,

Executive, said the Asia-Pacific is geo-politically

series. Following a year of tension among the major

France,

Zealand,

highly charged. ‘It is a place where strategic

actors in Asia-Pacific security affairs, addresses by

Singapore, the United Kingdom and Vietnam.

swagger mixes with diplomatic caution; where

senior government figures were often more direct

There was also a European Union delegation, and

solemn proclamations of principle intermingle

and pointed than in the past, and the subsequent

several other countries’ high-level representatives

with selective breaches of norms.’ The prime min-

discussions involving delegates were equally

were present as special guests of the IISS. In addi-

ister, Chipman noted, is seeking to stimulate and

robust. In addition, the Dialogue was considerably

tion to the usual top-level defence ministry and

reform the Japanese economy with his eponymous

larger, with approximately 450 government and

armed forces delegates, foreign ministries were

‘Abenomics’ policies, and has introduced the coun-

non-government delegates, representing a 25%

represented more strongly than in previous years.

try’s first-ever national security strategy that set

The keynote address to the Dialogue was

out the argument for a ‘proactive contribution to

Most of the 27 countries that routinely partici-

delivered by Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan,

peace’. Economic revival has provided the basis for

pate in the Shangri-La Dialogue were represented

maintaining the tradition of a head of government

a more extroverted Japanese foreign policy.

increase over the previous year.

Indonesia,

Malaysia,

New

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

TERRITORIAL DISPUTES

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

CONFLICT PREVENTION

JAPAN

Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan

Abe began by declaring: ‘Peace and prosper-

not use force or coercion in trying to drive their

together. Within such a framework, Abe pro-

ity in Asia, for evermore.’ One way to achieve

claims. The third principle is that states shall

posed mutual disclosure of military budgets,

this is through thriving growth and free trade.

seek to settle disputes by peaceful means…

on the principle that ‘sunshine is the best dis-

It is also imperative that peace and stability are

I urge all of us who live in Asia and the

infectant’. He emphasised Japan’s support for

‘absolutely rock solid’ – and for this, it is essen-

Pacific to each individually uphold these three

ASEAN’s security, pointing to its provision

tial that ‘all countries must observe international

principles exhaustively.’

of new patrol vessels to the Philippine Coast Guard, Indonesia and, in the future, Vietnam, as

law’. Japan, with its new proactive approach,

Japan strongly supported the Philippines’

intends to play a greater role in ensuring peace

call for a resolution to the dispute in the South

in Asia and the world.

China Sea that is consistent with these three

Meanwhile, Abe stated, Japan is altering its

While the Asia-Pacific has achieved tremen-

principles, and also backed Vietnam in its

defence policy. Because no nation can secure

dous growth, Abe said, too much of the resulting

efforts to resolve issues through dialogue. Abe

peace by itself, ‘it is incumbent upon us in Japan

revenue is being spent on military expansion

said: ‘Movement to consolidate changes to the

to reconstruct the legal basis pertinent to the

and arms. In addition, stability is threatened by

status quo by aggregating one fait accompli

right of collective self-defence and to interna-

weapons of mass destruction and by ‘attempts

after another can only be strongly condemned

tional cooperation, including United Nations

to change the status quo through force or coer-

as something that contravenes the spirit of

peacekeeping operations. … It is precisely

cion’. Japan is strengthening its relations with

these three principles.’ It is time, Abe declared,

because Japan is a country that depends a great

the US, Australia and India, and the prime min-

to return to the spirit and the provisions of the

deal on the peace and stability of the interna-

ister last year visited all ten ASEAN member

2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in

tional community that Japan wishes to work

countries. He said: ‘Freedom, democracy, and

the South China Sea, and to refrain from unilat-

even more proactively for world peace’, he said.

the rule of law, which undergirds these two,

eral actions, coercion and threats.

an example.

‘Abenomics’, the prime minister said, goes far

form the Asia-Pacific’s rich basso continuo that

Abe said it was unfortunate that an

beyond economic policy. ‘It is nothing less than

supports the melody played in a bright and

agreement he had concluded in 2007 with

an undertaking to foster “new Japanese” who

cheery key.’

then-Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, setting up a

will shoulder the responsibilities of the coming

Elaborating on his theme of the necessity for

maritime and air communication mechanism to

years.’ Among other traditional qualities, he

the rule of law, Abe turned to maritime secu-

prevent unexpected situations, had not been put

said, the new Japanese would be ‘determined

rity. The principle of freedom on the high seas

into effect. ‘It is my firm belief that commenc-

ultimately to take on the peace, order, and sta-

is long established. What is now known as the

ing the operation of this agreement between our

bility of this region as their own responsibility.’

international law of the seas was not created by

two countries will lead to peace and stability of

any particular country or group, he noted, but

the region as a whole.’

Opening the second day of the Dialogue, in the first plenary session US Secretary of

was ‘the product of our own wisdom, cultivated

Abe commended ASEAN’s foreign-minister

Defense Chuck Hagel forcefully challenged

over a great many years for the well-being and

and defence-minister forums, and the East Asia

what he described as China’s ‘destabilising,

the prosperity of all humankind’.

Summit. He proposed that a permanent com-

unilateral’ behaviour in disputed waters of the

‘The first principle’, the prime minister said,

mittee be established to prepare a road map

South China Sea, at the same time underscoring

‘is that states shall make their claims based on

to bring renewed vitality to the Summit itself,

America’s strategic staying power in the region.

international law. The second is that states shall

and to make all three meetings function better

Anticipating scepticism about that strategic sus-

2

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JULY 2014

IISS NEWS

UNITED STATES

DEFENCE POLICY

MILITARY COOPERATION

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

Mr Lee Kuan Yew (left), greets Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan (centre), as Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister, Singapore (right) and Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, US (far right), look on

tainability, Hagel referred to President Obama’s

Hagel promised that the US would ‘oppose any

cooperation, Onodera said, was highlighted by

recent speech in which had spoken of America

effort – by any nation – to restrict overflight or

the range of disasters and accidents in Asia over

as ‘the hub of alliances unrivalled in [the] history

freedom of navigation’, and that it would ‘not

the preceding year. The organisation and self-

of nations’. This is a key element of American

look the other way when fundamental principles

sufficient nature of military forces makes them

strength, Hagel insisted. Hagel’s speech had

of the international order are being challenged.’

particularly useful, and it is essential to enhance

already given a tour of this system of alliances

This includes American refusal to ‘abide by

military-to-military cooperation in humanitar-

and security partnerships, including at least one

China’s unilateral declaration of an Air Defence

ian assistance and disaster relief (HADR).

historically ironic relationship: Hagel pointed

Identification Zone in the East China Sea’. And

However, for Japan to be ‘proactively

to ‘emerging defence ties’ between the US and

he reiterated President Obama’s earlier state-

involved in military-to-military cooperation’,

Vietnam.

ment that the disputed Senkaku Islands (called

he explained, the three challenges have to be

Diaoyu Islands by China) fall under the rubric

addressed. The first is the establishment of a

of America’s mutual defence treaty with Japan.

framework that helps countries offer assistance.

Secretary Hagel insisted that the proclaimed American rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific ‘is not a goal, not a promise or a vision – it’s a

Hagel also strongly endorsed the new

reality’. He devoted many of his remarks to enu-

activism in Japan’s foreign and military poli-

merating the substance of that reality. Among

cies under Prime Minister Abe. In particular,

the elements he listed: President Obama’s visits

Hagel endorsed Japan’s efforts ‘to reorient

to the region including to Japan, South Korea,

its Collective Self Defence posture’ towards a

the Philippines and Malaysia; an agreement

more activist and less explicit pacifist defini-

with the Philippine president for the rota-

tion. However, the US Defense Secretary did

tional presence of US forces there; progress on

emphasise American and Chinese ‘shared com-

negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade

mitment to develop a new model of relations – a

agreement; enhanced capabilities in Korea; 1000

model that builds cooperation, manages compe-

marines rotating through Australia; introduc-

tition, and avoids rivalry’. He spoke specifically

tion of the Joint High Speed Vessel in the Pacific;

of upgrading military-to-military engagement

another submarine forward-deployed in Guam;

through a variety of ‘joint exercises, exchanges,

and up to four Littoral Combat Ships to be

and other confidence-building measures’.

deployed over the next three years in Singapore.

In the second plenary session, Japanese

The most contentious part of Hagel’s speech

defence minister Itsunori Onodera said that his

was his challenge to China. China’s provoca-

Prime Minister’s speech underscored Japan’s

tive actions, he said, included restricting access

‘commitment to peace and stability in the Asia-

to Scarborough Reef, exerting pressure against

Pacific’. Japan’s security efforts, said Onodera

the ‘long-standing Philippine presence at the

– with reference to the move to reinterpret

Second Thomas Shoal’, various land-reclama-

Japan’s post-war constitution – ‘do not mean

tion projects in disputed seas and the movement

any change to our path as a peace-loving nation’.

of an oil rig into waters near the Paracel Islands.

The importance of this military-to-military

IISS NEWS

Essential to this is joint planning in peacetime,

Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, US

JULY 2014 | 3

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

UNITED KINGDOM

MALAYSIA

JAPAN

Itsunori Onodera, Minister of Defense, Japan

Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Defence, UK

Dato’ Seri Hishammuddin bin Tun Hussein, Minister of Defence and Acting Minister of Transport, Malaysia

as well as a legal framework that allows the

develop, and deploy further from home, the

‘one size fits all’ defence policy for ASEAN, it

swift despatch of forces overseas. Agreements

‘proximity of their respective forces, and the

has to be united on several key issues. Common

that enable armed forces to supply each other in

frequency with which they come into contact,

positions are needed on important issues like

HADR contingencies are also important.

is bound to increase’. Military cooperation is at

maritime security and major power relations.

The second challenge is to expand capacity-

the heart of the UK’s planning. As British forces

In the third plenary session, Purnomo

building assistance. Tokyo needs, Onodera

return to a posture of contingency, ‘defence

Yusgiantoro, Indonesia’s Minister of Defense,

said, ‘to make security assistance seamless by

engagement’ is becoming embedded within the

reminded delegates that Southeast Asia has

enhancing coordination between defence and

UK defence doctrine, so as to make ‘active use of

plenty of positive experience in managing stra-

development agencies’. The third challenge for

our standing forces in peacetime to contribute

tegic tensions. After the region suffered division

Japan is in promoting equipment and techno-

to global stability through partnering, engage-

and proxy wars during the Cold War, he noted,

logical cooperation. One way Japan’s defence

ment and upstream conflict prevention and

ASEAN had been built ‘brick by brick’. Conflicts

ministry could help transfer defence equip-

capacity building’. It is, Hammond concluded,

have been resolved or brought under control.

ment and technology would be by establishing

in the interests of states in the Asia-Pacific to

Maritime border disputes have been solved,

a ‘Defence Equipment and Technology Agency’.

‘seize the opportunity for greater cooperation

although the region was not always given full

Onodera said Japan perceives an ‘increas-

and engagement, to help prevent conflict in the

credit for this. ASEAN’s members have trans-

ingly severe regional security environment’.

first place, to reduce the risk of miscalculation

formed relations among themselves and with

Frank dialogue about crisis management is

through unfamiliarity during periods of ten-

major powers. Indonesia has worked hard to

required. Agreement on the Code for Unplanned

sion, and ultimately to enhance interoperability

improve relations with neighbouring states.

Encounters at Sea is an important step, and he

with allies should the need for operations arise’.

Looking ahead, Purnomo said, the challenge

said he hopes to see the conclusion of an effec-

Malaysian defence minister Dato’ Seri

is to ensure that power shifts at the regional

tive Code of Conduct for the South China Sea.

Hishammuddin bin Tun Hussein discussed the

and global level do not stoke tensions. There

Japan does not accept unilateral action that tries

changing nature of the security environment.

are causes for concern: rivalries, suspicion,

to change the status quo by force, and defence

Globalisation and increasing participation in the

historical animosity and territorial disputes.

exchanges should be promoted to help generate

global commons brings with it new threats to

However, the region should also focus on new

a ‘norm’ of continual dialogue. Japan’s review

security, which demand new thinking, he said.

opportunities to build security. The search for

of the right of collective self-defence would ‘con-

Military-to-military cooperation has to be bal-

MH370 was one such opportunity; work on the

tribute to the peace and stability of the region’.

anced with competing domestic requirements;

long-expected Code of Conduct for the South

The United Kingdom’s Secretary of State

stable geopolitics is, he said, ‘also driven by

China Sea is another.

for Defence Philip Hammond said that mili-

the stability of each nation state in and around

Purnomo called on regional states to reaf-

tary modernisation across the region brings

the region’. There is greater benefit for all ‘if

firm their mutual commitment to common

opportunities, as well as threats, including

we stand solidly together’. This is also a lesson

norms, in particular the Treaty of Amity and

‘the development of more capable forces’

from the search for Malaysian Airlines flight

Cooperation. Observance of those norms as

which might bring with it ‘the potential for

MH370. Malaysia has always championed the

well as the Bali Principles, he argued, would

greater burden-sharing in policing the global

idea that ‘a strong ASEAN is a stabilising influ-

help to create a stable regional order. He added

commons’. As Asian countries’ armed forces

ence in the region’. While there is no need for a

that building trust is essential in the context of

4

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JULY 2014

IISS NEWS

FOREIGN POLICY

DEFENCE POLICY

CONFLICT PREVENTION

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

Purnomo Yusgiantoro, Minister of Defense, Indonesia

Senator David Johnston, Minister for Defence, Australia

General Phung Quang Thanh, Minister of National Defense, Vietnam

military modernisation. Indonesia’s defence

restraint and to clarify and pursue their claims

restraint, a minor mistake could turn tension

budget has grown significantly but it is not

in accordance with international law, including

into conflict.

directed against anyone, the minister averred.

UNCLOS.

Vietnam’s relations with China have grown

Military modernisation does not equate to an

Johnston singled out the US for its role in

strongly, the minister noted, although a sov-

arms race, but it is necessary to have a posi-

underpinning regional stability for 70 years.

ereignty dispute arose when on 1 May China

tive regional security framework including

Australia welcomes the US ‘rebalance’, but also

unilaterally moved a drilling rig into an area

confidence-building measures to ensure trans-

Japan’s determination to make a greater contri-

that Vietnam regards as its EEZ. Vietnam is

parency. Conflict is not inevitable, he argued,

bution to regional peace and security. A central

committed to the peaceful resolution of the dis-

because the region is large enough to accom-

role for ASEAN and ADMM is likewise of great

pute via UNCLOS and other means, and this

modate all powers, and the regional security

value, he added.

is underlined by the fact that it has exercised

The search for Malaysian Airlines flight

restraint, eschewing the deployment of combat

MH370 showed the benefit of greater military

aircraft or warships. He demanded, however,

David Johnston, Australia’s Minister for

interoperability, the minister noted, but it also

that China should withdraw the rig and negoti-

Defence, noted that the global trading system,

showed the need to step up collective efforts

ate peacefully.

based on a free flow of goods and services, has

as it followed years of discussion about search

Opening the fourth plenary session on

served Asia well since 1945. Regional states

and rescue. In order to manage future crises

the Dialogue’s Sunday morning, Lieutenant

should strive to preserve unhindered move-

effectively, ‘We would all have to acknowledge

General Wang Guanzhong, Deputy Chief,

ment through sea lines of communication, he

that we can and must do better collectively’,

General Staff Department, People’s Liberation

said, adding that tensions should be resolved

he said. To that end, Johnston proposed that

Army characterised China’s security concept

peacefully and in accordance with international

Australia should facilitate regular multilateral

for Asia in terms of a constructive, proactive and

law. As the twenty-first century will be the Asia-

search-and-rescue exercises, focusing on practi-

positive force aimed at ‘win-win’ for all. China,

Pacific century, with rapid urbanisation and the

cal skills.

he said, pursues a path of peaceful development,

architecture should accommodate this ‘evolving dynamic equilibrium’.

General Phung Quang Thanh, Vietnam’s

upholds a ‘banner of fairness and justice’, advo-

minister of national defense, argued that, in

cates dialogue and cooperation and stands for

Key to capturing those gains, Senator

light of continuing tensions and the danger of

coordinated progress of security and develop-

Johnston argued, is successful management

conflict, building trust is ever more important.

ment. He enumerated China’s friendly military

of the region’s social, economic and strategic

He placed particular emphasis on major powers

exchanges and cooperation with countries in

transformation. While Australia takes no posi-

acting responsibly, observing international law

the Asia-Pacific and the nation’s participation in

tion on competing maritime claims, it does

and not using force or the threat of force to

multilateral defence and security cooperation.

have a legitimate interest in international law,

settle disputes. It is incumbent on major powers

China is committed to handling territorial and

unimpeded trade and freedom of navigation,

to take the lead in developing strategic trust,

maritime disputes through peaceful negotia-

he said. The unilateral use of force or coercion

he added. The minister said it was important

tions between the states directly involved.

to alter the status quo in the East and South

for decision-makers to remain calm, exercise

Halfway into his remarks, General Wang

China Seas is not acceptable, the defence minis-

restraint and put national interests in the con-

departed from the pre-prepared script and criti-

ter emphasised. He urged all parties to exercise

text of regional and global interests. Without

cised the speeches made over the previous two

rise of a huge middle class, there is a great deal at stake.

IISS NEWS

JULY 2014 | 5

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

CHINA

RUSSIA

FOREIGN POLICY

conducive to strengthening regional security, he said.

French Minister of Defence Jean-Yves Le Drian initiated the final plenary session by highlighting the crisis prevention and management lessons learnt by France in recent years. The first is that crises cannot be managed effectively without political determination that disruptive behaviour will not be tolerated. This requires firm resolve by the international community, of the kind that brought Iran to the negotiating table and would be necessary to engage with North Korea. It also requires decisiveness of the sort demonstrated by France in 2013 in Mali. Failure to engage there at the critical moment would have jeopardized the entire region’s security and posed a threat to Europe.

Such decisiveness is necessary within a wider framework sanctioned by the international Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong, Deputy Chief, General Staff Department, People’s Liberation Army, China

days by Abe and Hagel, referring to a Chinese

Anatoly Antonov, Deputy Minister of Defence, Russia

community at a global or regional level. Those taking the lead need to have credibility derived from legitimacy, and a capacity to implement

Russian

Deputy

Minister

of

Defence

concrete actions.

proverb that states that it is impolite not to

Anatoly Antonov emphasised that ‘Russia has

The second lesson is that crisis management

reciprocate. Wang called those speeches ‘staged

always been, and will remain, an integral part

requires an unwavering sense of responsibility

provocations to China’ that were pre-coordi-

of the Asia-Pacific’, where its primary role is to

in three specific areas: respecting the law; con-

nated and ‘simply unimaginable’. In contrast

ensure peace and security. Most of the regional

stant acceptance of the principle of dialogue, a

to Abe’s indirectness in not criticising China by

states, he said, have realised the need to create a

need evident in the case of competing territorial

name, Wang said he preferred Hagel’s more

durable system of regional security based upon

claims in the Asia-Pacific region; and good faith

direct approach. Yet Hagel’s accusations sought

‘collective non-bloc foundations’ and principles

and transparency, meaning that actions have to

to ‘stir up disputes and trouble’ with ‘tastes of

of equality and indivisible security, alongside

be in conformity with stated principles.

hegemony’ and ‘expressions of coercion and

strict compliance with international law.

In applying these lessons to the Asia-Pacific, a

intimidation’. From those speeches and from

Cooperation is necessary, Antonov said, to

key principle is freedom of maritime navigation

Japanese and US actions, one could judge ‘who

cope with the threat of terrorism and the risk

and air traffic which is becoming increasingly

is really stirring up trouble and tension in the

of proliferation of weapons of mass destruc-

important during this period of global ‘maritimi-

region’. China has never initiated disputes over

tion. Like General Wang, Antonov referred

sation’. Early resolution of disputes in the South

territorial sovereignty and the delimitation of

to a return of fascism: ‘This is what we see in

China Sea is imperative. The time has perhaps

maritime boundaries, he said; it has only taken

Ukraine, exposed to the most violent face of

come for a bold collective effort. Cooperation

countermeasures against provocations by others.

so-called “colour revolution”.’ He encouraged

also has a clear role to play in regional crisis

Returning to his original text, Wang

countries to stand together to counter the new

management, as does dialogue, an area where

expressed the willingness of the PLA to work

threat: ‘We have to figure out how to keep

ASEAN is already doing much useful work in

with other militaries to contribute more to

colour revolutions away from our home, the

building a regional security framework.

regional and global peace and development.

Asia-Pacific.’

In the final address, Singapore’s Minister for

Specifically, he proposed: the promotion of

Antonov decried unilateral attempts to estab-

Defence, Dr Ng Eng Hen, observed that the 2014

mutual strategic trust by deepening dialogue

lish regional order, including through regional

Shangri-La Dialogue had seen some hard-hit-

and exchanges; supporting common develop-

elements of global missile defence. Russia pre-

ting presentations, though these were preferable

ment by strengthening security cooperation;

fers to rely on coordinated efforts under the

to the alternative. When it comes to dealing with

promoting disaster relief cooperation; maritime

aegis of the UN and regional structures such as

crises in an agile way, a major problem is the

cooperation and managing differences by estab-

the ADMM-Plus. He noted that Russia has con-

impossibility of predicting where the next crisis

lishing security mechanisms. China is exploring

cluded agreements with four Pacific neighbours

will come. Just a month before Russia’s annexa-

establishing telephone links with ASEAN

on preventing dangerous military activities near

tion of Crimea, former French President Giscard

countries of the kind already established with

their borders and is working on similar agree-

d’Estaing had spoken about Europe having

Russia and the US. Finally, he noted that next

ments with Japan and North Korea. Looking

eliminated the concept of war. But if it is hard

year marks the 70th anniversary of the ‘victory

to the future, he suggested creating a compre-

to anticipate crises, one certainty is that their

of the world’s anti-Fascist war’. He said China

hensive regional mechanism for preventing

impact in today’s interconnected world will be

will never allow ‘ruthless fascist and militarist

dangerous military activities. Voluntary trans-

transnational. Much is being made of a grow-

aggression to stage a comeback’.

parency of military activities would also be

ing approximation between Russia and China,

6

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JULY 2014

IISS NEWS

NAVY

TERRITORIAL DISPUTES

INTERNATIONAL LAW

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

accelerated by the Ukraine conflict and seen by many as polarisation against those partnered with the US. But if such polarisation does exist it is not driven by ideology.

The minister noted that it is clear that the temperature has gone up in the Asia-Pacific region. At an earlier security summit this year, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger observed that Europe is in a post-modern mode, reluctant to engage in military conflict, whereas Asia more resembles nineteenth-century Europe in not excluding that possibility. Was Kissinger right? Defence spending in Asia is rising, while regional safeguards and structures to mitigate disputes are still embryonic. Asia collectively does not have Europe’s ‘never again’ mentality towards conflict, though individual Asian states have their own never-agains: for China, the humiliations of the nineteenth century; for Japan, the baggage associated with World War II; and

Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore

of aspiration and ambition of individual Asian

the building of more resilient mechanisms to

eration and interaction between militaries; and

states intersect as widely as possible to enable

forge consensus and political will; multilateral

concerted action to deal with humanitarian

protection of common goods. This requires

frameworks to promote trust; practical coop-

assistance and disaster relief.

for ASEAN, colonisation and exploitation. The political challenge is to ensure that the circles

Special Session 1: THE CHALLENGES OF MAINTAINING AND MANAGING OPEN SEAS There was substantial agreement in this ses-

the principles at stake: whatever the com-

with UNCLOS and its implications for the

sion on the importance of maintaining open

peting claims, there is no place for the use

principles of open seas.

seas, given the crucial role that freedom of

or threat of force as a means of advancing

The session also discussed the potential for

navigation has played in promoting prosper-

national interests. One Southeast Asian del-

maritime cooperation. There was agreement

ity, particularly in the Asia-Pacific: there are

egate spoke eloquently about the need for

that Humanitarian and Disaster Relief, and

state, commercial and individual interests at

a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea,

Search and Rescue provided good opportuni-

stake. Confirming Beijing’s subscription to

where there is a widening gap between the

ties for collaboration which could help to build

these common interests, one delegate noted

rhetoric of respect for the 2002 Declaration

trust among the armed forces of the region. The

China hosted six of the world’s eight larg-

on the Conduct of Parties and the reality at

search for Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 in

est container ports. Attention quickly turned

sea. Another panellist raised China’s ‘nine-

early 2014 had provided an opportunity for shar-

to more contentious issues: managing free-

dashed line’, questioning its compatibility

ing of information on an unprecedented scale.

dom of navigation within national Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and in zones where claimed EEZs overlap. In discussing the principle of freedom of navigation, including for military assets, within EEZs, the session heard that the implications of challenges to this right extend beyond Asia. Some 38% of all ocean territory is within EEZs, as are all major maritime chokepoints.

The session discussed the usefulness of UNCLOS in managing overlapping claims to EEZs, in particular given the convention’s lack of enforcement mechanisms.

Amidst discussion of the relevance of international law, one panellist was clear about

IISS NEWS

The US Navy amphibious transport dock ship USS Denver passes along side the Singapore navy Endurance-class amphibious transport dock ship Resolution (US Navy/Geronimo C. Aquino)

JULY 2014 | 7

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

DEFENCE POLICY

DEFENCE ECONOMICS

ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE CHANGE

Special Session 2: THE IMPACT OF NEW MILITARY CAPABILITIES IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC Military capabilities of particular concern

In the German government’s view, confi-

useful, but the importance of improving mili-

mentioned in this session included navies with

dence-building measures including enhanced

tary planning and coordination in the first

extended operational reach, advanced missile

military transparency could help control

24-48 hours of any HADR crisis was clear. To

technologies, unmanned aerial vehicles, and

regional tensions as Asian armed forces mod-

this end, Singapore had offered to establish a

the military applications of cyber-technology,

ernise.

regional HADR coordination centre.

the deployment and use of which could exacer-

Panellists mentioned the relevance of new

Some delegates asked whether military

bate inter-state tensions and create instability.

military capabilities to the search for MH370

programmes might be harmonised in order

However, there was agreement that advanced

which, at its peak involved eight countries’

to reduce intra-regional misunderstanding

surveillance and command and control tech-

ships and aircraft, coordinated by Australia. A

and tension. There was agreement that the

nologies could also enhance regional armed

wide range of advanced sea and air capabilities

ADMM-Plus provided an important frame-

forces’ capacity to respond to humanitarian

had been used, sometimes in unanticipated

work for discussion, and that HADR would

emergencies.

roles. The search benefitted not only from

be an enduring role for regional armed forces.

The Chinese perspective highlighted the

existing

Five

risks posed by nuclear-weapons prolifera-

Defence

Arrangements

tion, including by North Korea and potentially

links, but also from previ-

non-state actors. Moreover, in the Chinese

ous cooperation between

view, ballistic missile defences and US global

the Australian and Chinese

conventional strike concepts are both destabi-

armed

lising. Militarisation of the global commons,

trated how HADR and

particularly outer space and cyber-space, was

SAR

also of concern. Both economic growth and

a multilateral approach.

insecurity are driving regional armed forces’

In Singapore’s view, the

modernization, and more states are deploying

ADMM-Plus HADR exer-

air-capable ships and advanced submarines.

cise in Brunei in 2013 was

forces. operations

Power

It

illusrequire

An unmanned aerial vehicle alongside a US Navy aircraft carrier (Erik Hildebrandt/US Navy)

Special Session 3: CLIMATE CHANGE, HADR, AND SECURITY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC The session addressed the issue of coop-

The session heard that climate-change has

developed

mitigation

and

management

and

the potential effectively to ‘wipe out’ small

strategies and built up a capacity to deal

responding to, climate change and its impact.

states. In this regard, Pacific island states such

with natural disasters. Nevertheless, chal-

Speakers and delegates agreed on a number

as Tonga find themselves in a highly vulnera-

lenges remain, including managing foreign

of issues. Above all was the realisation that

ble position and needed international support

assistance, as shown in the case of Typhoon

climate change is a key security regional secu-

to face the challenge of climate-change. This

Haiyan in the Philippines. Additional com-

rity threat and a threat multiplier capable of

predicament underlines the importance of

plications lie in the need to enhance military

precipitating future security problems. In par-

regionalism and the need for smaller states to

capacity to intervene in HADR contingencies.

ticular, climate change-induced humanitarian

join international debates as part of regional

There is also a need for increased informa-

crises, population displacement, mass fatali-

groupings, rather than individually.

tion-sharing.

eration

in

preventing,

mitigating,

ties, resource scarcity, and food and water

Countries such as Bangladesh and the

Some delegates claimed that HADR

shortages could heighten social tension and

Philippines that have experienced the cata-

provides an opportunity for regional coop-

inequality, exacerbating existing conflicts.

strophic impact of climate-change have

eration even among states that might not be natural partners. However, it was admitted that the need to react rapidly in the event of disaster often resulted in national or bilateral initiatives coming to the fore. Some argued that legal formalities relating to the entry of foreign forces and nationals should be relaxed to allow quicker responses to natural disasters. Others believed that in spite of bureaucratic requirements, the process of granting and deploying assistance was rela-

The Pacific island nation of Kiribati has already been affected by climate change (UN/Eskinder Debebe)

8

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JULY 2014

tively swift.

IISS NEWS

FOREIGN POLICY

CONFLICT PREVENTION

MILITARY COOPERATION

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

Special Session 4: ASEAN AND THE EMERGING REGIONAL SECURITY ORDER The themes of this session were the roles of security institutions in the regional order, and whether ASEAN possessed the capacity to play a more assertive part. Participants agreed that ASEAN – despite its inadequacies in decisionmaking and coherence – has emerged as a central actor in regional affairs. Amy Searight from the US Department of Defense said that Americans have moved away from old debates questioning the need for Washington to engage with ASEAN. The US now seeks to accelerate

24th ASEAN Summit, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, 10-11 May 2014 (ASEAN)

such engagement. The fact that US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel had visited Southeast

to China’s rise. The session heard that ASEAN

Delegates generally agreed that sustained

Asia five times in just over a year testified to

should continue to engage with the major

progress on such proposals would prove

Washington’s interest in the sub-region. The US

powers, and should establish a clearer commit-

critical in maintaining ASEAN as the regional

also viewed with satisfaction the multilateral

ment among them to principles that will shape

order evolved. The grouping can no longer

exercises conducted by the ADMM-Plus in 2013.

the region’s strategic culture. This included

depend

Optimism about ASEAN’s prospects was

an adherence to international law, peaceful

type decision-making; rather, it needs sus-

qualified by calls for the group to play a more

dispute-resolution and open discussion of diffi-

tained leadership to make progress on major

assertive role in regional security. There was

cult issues. Some delegates argued that ASEAN

issues. ASEAN would need to avoid the fate

clearly difficulty on ASEAN’s part in finding

should push harder on thorny concerns such as

of the European Union, the collective weight

a coherent strategy that could help Southeast

concluding a legally-binding Code of Conduct

of which in strategic terms is less than the sum

Asia and the wider region respond effectively

with China in the South China Sea.

of its parts.

on

lowest-common

denominator

Special Session 5: THE FUTURE OF NORTH KOREA: IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL SECURITY respond to a five-party discussion in its absence about the security of the Korean Peninsula.

The US is uninterested in talks for their own sake on North Korea’s terms, but remains prepared to talk with Pyongyang if and when the regime indicates that it is serious about denuclearisation. For this reason, the international community must show unity in exerting pressure on North Korea to comply with its UN obligation of irreversible, verifiable denuclearisation. France and the US both stressed that China could exert greater pressure on North

A North Korean soldier at Panmunjom (Roman Harak)

Korea: they did not accept Chinese assertions Panel speakers emphasised that the threat

The nuclear weapons programme is not only

that all effort had been exhausted. The US is

posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons

inextricably bound to Kim Jong-un’s regime

concerned that China remains a crucial source

programme and evasion of international

legitimacy but is also a vital source of state rev-

of high technology and materials for North

sanctions has evolved from a regional prob-

enue. Kim has felt compelled to accelerate his

Korea’s nuclear programmes. Inadvertent

lem into a global dilemma. Kim Jong-un is

nuclear programme after observing the fates of

facilitation of North Korea’s proliferation

currently consolidating his dictatorship by

regimes in Iraq and Libya, and Ukraine’s loss

activities and sanctions evasion also remains a

placing close aides in key party, govern-

of territory. The Kim family regime is pursuing

concern. Concerted international pressure on

ment and military posts. North Korea has

a ‘blackmail-balance’ strategy consisting of a

the DPRK to choose the path of denuclearisa-

amassed

uranium

cycle of broken promises in return for conces-

tion should continue, and the US stressed that

enrichment and has improved yield and min-

sions. All panellists agreed that the only viable

tightened sanctions were important to prevent

iaturisation technology through three nuclear

solution was a negotiated settlement. There was

North Korea from importing proscribed items

tests.

some speculation about how Pyongyang might

and profiting from illicit exports.

IISS NEWS

plutonium,

continues

JULY 2014 | 9

IISS–ASIA

FULLERTON LECTURES

SINGAPORE

IISS–Fullerton Lecture: a conversation with K. Shanmugam, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs

A Chinese coast guard ship passes Chinese drilling equipment located in waters off the Paracel Islands, May 2014 (Asahi Shimbun/Getty)

K. Shanmugam, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs in conversation with Dr Tim Huxley

On 30 June, Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs (and also Minister for Law)

On the power balance in the Asia-Pacific, Mr Shanmugam noted that

K. Shanmugam gave 200 corporate leaders, scholars and journalists a tour

all of the region’s three major powers – China, Japan and the United

d’horizon of Singapore’s foreign policy approaches to major strategic prob-

States – have vast interests to protect. The US is intent on keeping its

lems. The republic’s foreign policy, the minister said in conversation with

strategic footprint in the region, while China has ‘huge interests’ in

Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia, is based on a mix of critical

mainland Asia. Yet the three countries also face massive challenges. The

components – a history of success as a nation-state, the ability to defend itself

Chinese leadership is seeking to manage growing socio-economic inequi-

and an emphasis on international law as an avenue for resolving disputes.

ties, while Japan grapples with a falling fertility rate and a consequently

Mr Shanmugam said that Singapore’s leadership took the world ‘as it is’, rather than taking an ‘idealistic view’. This enables the city-state to maintain ‘positive relations’ with many countries.

ageing society.

While China has recently espoused the concept of ‘Asia for Asians’ – suggesting that the US should be excluded from Asia – Shanmugam

During exchanges with Dr Huxley and the invited audience, Mr

said that it would be more rational for Beijing and Washington to arrive

Shanmugam took issue with the international media’s portrayal of China

at a modus vivendi. Neither major power would want trouble with the

as a ‘big bully’, in light of China recently moving a US$1 million oil rig

other given their mutual dependence. However, the prevailing political

near Triton Island, which forms part of the Paracel Islands claimed by both

atmosphere in China, Japan and the US might not allow for the rational

China and Vietnam.

understandings necessary for ‘give and take’.

Stressing that he didn’t ‘hold the brief’ for China, Mr Shanmugam said

Mr Shanmugam was equally dispassionate when it came to the issue of

that one has to ‘face the facts’. In the early stage of the Vietnam War in 1958

the ASEAN Economic Community and the goal of regional economic inte-

– when China lent support to communist North Vietnam – Beijing declared

gration by 2015. While such a project holds promise, ASEAN members are

its ownership of the Paracels and their waters. At that time, North Vietnam

diverse in their levels of development and value systems and, as a result,

agreed with the declaration.

cannot be expected to follow the model of the European Union. One has to

That said, he noted that China did not do itself any favours by remaining ambiguous about its apparent ‘nine-dashed line’ claim to the South China Sea. The most rational way forward for China and ASEAN is to ‘try to manage conflict and make sure common sense prevails’ by forging a more formal Code of Conduct to establish norms of behaviour.

be ‘realistic’ about this, said Mr Shanmugam, conceding that this word is prominent in his strategic lexicon.

A video and transcript of the Fullerton Lecture can be viewed here.

Read a full report by William Choong and Alex Neill, IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellows for Asia-Pacific Security.

PUBLICATIONS

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy In the August–September 2014 issue of Survival, David C. Gompert and Martin Libicki examine the risks of a cyber war between the United States and China; William W. Burke-White discusses the changing international legal order in the context of the Ukraine crisis; and Behlül Ozkan analyses Ahmet Davutoglu’s influence on Turkish foreign policy. Also in the issue: Leif-Eric Easley on US surveillance programmes and trust among allies; Antônio Sampaio on democracy and protest in Brazil; and Yogesh Joshi and Frank O’Donnell on India’s submarine programme and nuclear proliferation in Asia.

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JULY 2014

IISS NEWS

UNITED STATES

AFGHANISTAN

CHINA

KEY ADDRESSES

Address by Li Keqiang, Premier of the People’s Republic of China After over 30 years of reform, China has lifted more than 600 million people out of poverty, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told an audience at the Mansion House. Addressing a special joint meeting of the IISS and Chatham House on 18 June, he outlined plans to sustain China’s growth by ‘inclusive development’.

Li began by calling for a new kind of urbanisation to cope with the hundreds of millions of rural migrants expected to arrive in cities in central and western China by 2020. He also stressed the need to redevelop deprived inner cities.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is greeted by Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive

Li then said that modernisation of China’s industry would continue, allowing the country to produce more high-end goods and products. He

China is ready to work with other countries, saying, ‘I believe as long as

also promised that Beijing would pursue green and low-carbon develop-

countries in the region engage in dialogue and negotiations with sincerity

ment and step up efforts to conserve energy and reduce emissions. Reform

and in good faith, peace will be maintained.’

would continue to open China up to market forces, he added, pointing to

In conclusion, Li described the UK and China as ‘distant neighbours’,

the upsurge in new businesses following recent changes to the registration

pointing to plans for the two countries to expand their trade and invest-

system as an example of this. Addressing fears that China’s growth was

ment. He added, however, that China–UK cooperation is not limited to

slowing, Li played down the chances of a ‘hard landing’ for the country’s

the economic domain. Li welcomed moves to simplify the visa application

economy and predicted it would meet the 7.5% growth rate target for the

system for Chinese visitors and noted that more than half the Chinese stu-

year.

dents in the EU study in the UK.

Li went on to argue that China’s development was only possible with a

The address was followed by a brief Q&A with questions on climate

peaceful international environment and stable regional security, denying

change, China’s aerospace industry and prospects for further political

that China had any hegemonic or expansionist goals. He emphasised that

reform. Watch the event on our website.

The End of America’s Long War in Afghanistan On 25 June, Karl Eikenberry, former US ambassador to Afghanistan and commander of US-led coalition forces, gave his assessment of the future of Afghanistan following the imminent US withdrawal and the country’s recent presidential elections.

After illustrating some of the political, social and military conflicts plaguing the country prior to the intervention, Eikenberry outlined five different strategies the US had pursued in Afghanistan. These included what he described as the ‘light footprint’ from 2001–04; state building from 2005–08, although this effort suffered from a lack of resources as supplies were largely concentrated in Iraq; ‘the surge’ from 2009–11 and ‘the transition’ from 2012–14.

US and Georgian soldiers board an aircraft in Helmand province, Afghanistan, July 2013 (USMC/Alejandro Pena)

Alongside several infrastructure and social care improvements, the former ambassador pointed to important progress achieved in the

Yet despite promising signs, Eikenberry admitted that the future

political arena: the development of a progressive constitution; the allo-

Afghan president – be it Ashraf Ghani or Abdullah Abdullah – faced

cation of 25% of parliamentary seats for women; and the emergence of

a ‘daunting list of problems’. These included what many perceive as

a unified, centralised democratic republic. Yet for the constitution to be

Pakistan’s indirect support of the Afghan Taliban, the high cost (US$4–

successful, Eikenberry noted, institutions were required to effectively

4.5 billion per year) of maintaining the Afghan national security forces,

implement it.

high unemployment (35%), declining foreign assistance and narco-traf-

The former ambassador also described ‘extraordinary progress’ in the expansion of media outlets, epitomised by the emergence of 76 TV stations.

Eikenberry suggested that these are playing an invaluable role in keeping

ficking.

This meeting took place at Arundel House and was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies. Watch the discussion on the IISS website.

the country democratic.

IISS NEWS

JULY 2014 | 11

EVENTS

CYBER SECURITY

FOOD SECURITY

MYANMAR

Implications of Cyber Securitization and Militarization: A Private Sector Perspective

Webinar: Food Security in Asia

Growing rice in Thailand (Dreamstime) Assembling a circuit board (Dreamstime)

Dr Monika Barthwal-Datta, International Security lecturer at the University

At an IISS–UK discussion meeting, Dr Jarno Limnéll, Director of Cyber

Policies and Implications, at Arundel House on 21 May. Barthwal-Datta clas-

Security at McAfee (Intel Security), spoke on the crucial role of the private

sified Asian food insecurity as a worldwide problem, given the region’s

sector in maintaining cyber security. In light of our increasing depend-

large population and status as a major global food supplier. She identi-

ence on digital systems, he explained, cyber security has expanded from

fied recent demographic and environmental changes that are disrupting

a centralised, government or military concern to a global issue impact-

food production, including the industrial appropriation of farmland and

ing the everyday lives of individuals and daily operations of businesses.

the shift in weather patterns due to climate change. She added that along-

Noting that 80–90% of Western critical infrastructure is now owned and

side an overall supply shortage, food security is often limited by physical,

operated by private sector companies, he proposed an increased role for

social, and economic barriers. All of these factors, she explained, have

such entities in national cyber security efforts. He outlined a series of steps

rendered farming an increasingly unviable vocation, further intensifying

to address the digital threat, emphasising the importance of accurately

the crisis. Barthwal-Datta advocated a solution focusing on small farm-

assessing other countries’ cyber capabilities. He also recommended a focus

ing communities that would increase their involvement in agricultural

on limiting human error by investing more in recruiting talented and con-

policymaking, incentivise ecosystem protection activities, and invest in

scientious workers than in simply winning the ‘technological arms race’.

social services to improve farmers’ quality of life. Adelphi Editor and IISS

The event, held on 19 May, was chaired by IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber

Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Strategy, Nick Redman,

Security, Eneken Tikk-Ringas.

chaired the event. Read a full report or watch the presentation.

of South Wales, launched her Adelphi book, Food Security in Asia: Challenges,

Myanmar: Towards 2015 and Beyond Myanmar is now at a very sensitive moment: the peace process with ethnic armed groups is in a delicate phase; the divisive 2008 constitution is being debated in parliament; and Buddhist nationalism pervades sectors of society with increasingly violent repercussions.

On 10 July Dr Matthew Walton, Senior Research Fellow in modern Burmese studies, and Andrew McLeod, Stipendiary Lecturer in Law, both at the University of Oxford, came to the IISS to discuss the nature of different challenges to Myanmar’s transition.

Women on their way to market, Mandalay, Myanmar (iStock)

Dr Walton discussed the complex makeup of Burmese political identity, and how this affects the possible range of responses to inter-communal vio-

that ensure it a prominent role in Burmese politics, or the clause that pre-

lence. The incentive to incite such violence is only likely to increase in the

vents Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president. Myanmar’s transition

lead-up to the 2015 election, while there are also numerous complications

may yet lead to a more democratic society, but could also create a new

to the peace process stemming from the activities of ethnic armed groups.

form of authoritarianism, akin to other states in the region.

McLeod said the 2008 constitution, which was always meant as a

This meeting was chaired by Hervé Lemahieu, Research Associate to

temporary document, plays a central role in Myanmar’s political reform

the Director of Studies, with Jens Wardenaer, Research Analyst, Armed

process. While a move towards a more federal model appears likely, the

Conflict Database, acting as discussant. An audio recording of the event

military is unlikely to agree to amending those parts of the constitution

is available here.

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IISS NEWS

UNITED STATES

Political Crisis and Instability in Venezuela

VENEZUELA

EVENTS

Adelphi Launch: Beyond Air–Sea Battle Concurrent with the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, on 30 May Aaron L. Friedberg, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, launched his Adelphi book, Beyond Air-Sea Battle: The Debate Over US Military Strategy in Asia. The monograph examines the ‘rapidly evolving’ military dimension to the ‘emerging Sino-American rivalry’, a topic that found increasing relevance at the Dialogue as the US and Asia-Pacific nations discussed the future of the region.

Since the 1990s, the People’s Republic of China has heavily invested in military capacity building: its stockpile of conventionally armed ballistic

Protestors in Caracas, June 2014 (Carlos Díaz)

missiles, cruise missiles and torpedoes would now allow it to target the infrastructure (for example, ports, air bases and surface vessels) ‘on which

On 5 June, IISS Research Analyst for Latin America Antônio Sampaio

the US depends to sustain its presence in the Western Pacific’. Furthermore,

chaired a discussion meeting on the attempts to solve the political crisis

the ‘ongoing modernisation of China’s nuclear forces’ significantly

in Venezuela. Academic and El Universal columnist Daniel Lansberg-

raises the stakes for the US rebalance to Asia. As Friedberg explains, the

Rodríguez identified a failure on both sides to recognise and address their

American presence in the region is largely contingent on ‘security guar-

own flaws, citing endemic corruption and damaging economic policies

antees’ and ‘alliances’, and if China succeeds in ‘dramatically rais[ing] the

within the government and a passive, ‘victim’ pathology among oppo-

potential costs’ of the US ‘pivot’, it may succeed in eroding confidence in

sition leaders. Both groups, he added, also promote overly simplistic

the US ability to maintain a significant foothold in the Asia-Pacific.

narratives of Venezuelan domestic politics. While the government pre-

This Adelphi traces the ‘evolution of the military challenge posed by

sents a censored, ‘Panglossian’ perspective, opposition leaders denounce

China’, and examines the causes of the West’s seemingly belated response

their opponents as irrevocably misguided and solely responsible for the

to China’s increasing military might. It also discusses the ‘alternative

country’s problems. Given this shared aversion to compromise, Lansberg-

counter-strategies’ that are under consideration in the US, including the

Rodríguez was unsurprised by the failure of negotiations between the

‘Air-Sea Battle doctrine’.

two parties in April. He concluded that while current President Nicolás Maduro’s government has done little to improve conditions in Venezuela, widespread corruption and a weak and disorganised opposition limit prospects for significant political or economic change.

EXPERTS

The launch was chaired by Nicholas Redman, Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, and Editor, Adelphi books.

Read a blog piece about the launch by Aaron L Friedberg and watch a video of the event.

NORTH KOREA

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

UN Sanctions on North Korea: Prospects and Problems On 9 July 2014, the IISS organised a workshop in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – the latest in a series of meetings discussing sanctions on North Korea in support of the UN Panel of Experts. The workshop brought together representatives from Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritania, Nigeria, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, as well as Interpol and the African Development Bank, to explain the panel’s mandate, provide guidance on sanctions implementation best practices and highlight North Korea’s evasion methods. The meeting concluded with an engaging discussion of challenges to regional implementation of UN sanctions on North Korea.

IISS NEWS

The launch of North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite in 2012 (Getty/KCNA)

JULY 2014 | 13

EVENTS

SYRIA

IRAN

The Iran and Syria Alliance: Holding Strong?

In recent years the events in Syria have presented a complex challenge to the Tehran-Damascus partnership, an alliance that has played a significant role in the stability and political landscape of the region. As Dr Goodarzi noted, that significance has been misunderstood and misinterpreted. As Iran pursues a two-track policy of supporting the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad while hoping to remain part of the diplomatic effort to end the crisis, perception of the alliance between these nations must shift to allow for the intricacies of an Iran that is attempting to reconfigure its role both in the Middle East and on the world stage.

Mr Barnes-Dacey asserted that while Iran maintains a degree of confidence in Assad, the costliness of the current situation is far from ideal, in regards to security risks, military assistance, the humanitarian fallout and the already delicate political balance of the region. But crucially, the zerosum game promoted by some Western powers is an equally unattractive Refugees at a camp in Atmeh, Syria, January 2013 (iStock)

option for a nation that has nurtured a relationship with Syria for some 35 years. Tehran desires an end to the crisis and, as the panel stated, the coun-

On 19 May Arundel House hosted Jubin Goodarzi, Deputy Head of the

try is willing to play a constructive role in achieving that, but on terms that

International Relations Department at Webster University, and Julien

enshrine its own interests in the region.

Barnes-Dacey, Senior Policy Fellow, Middle East and North Africa

The meeting was chaired by Dina Esfandiary, Research Associate, Non-

Programme, at the European Council on Foreign Relations, for a discus-

Proliferation and Disarmament Programme. A video of the event can be

sion meeting centred on the evolving relationship between Iran and Syria.

watched here.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY

EXPERTS

Accountability and the Environmental Legacy of Armed Conflict War not only creates death and destruction, it also frequently leaves a toxic environmental legacy. From the residues of Agent Orange herbicide in Vietnam and depleted uranium in Iraq to everyday chemical waste from military bases, environmental contamination during war makes it more difficult for countries to recover from armed conflict.

At IISS on 3 July, the Toxic Remnants of War (TRW) Project presented its new report on the long-lasting detrimental impact of harmful materials released during war – whether via alloys or compounds in munitions,

US forces dispose of unexploded ordnance at Camp Fallujah, Iraq, 2005 (Bobby J. Segovia/USMC)

harmful substances looted from unguarded industrial sites, noxious fumes from military burn pits or other processes.

The lack of accountability for war-time environmental damage is a

With the effect of unexploded landmines and ordnance already

major problem, and there are deficiencies in current treaty-based interna-

widely documented, TRW and its ‘Pollution Politics’ report focus on

tional law, especially because of the high threshold of damage required for

poisonous and radiological substances. Project manager Doug Weir and

it to take effect. From several case studies Weir and Kelly discussed, the

researcher Aneaka Kelly said some militaries are recognising the need

only instance in which reparations had been ordered to be paid for war-

to treat hazardous materials more carefully or to devise alternatives.

time environmental damage was by Iraq for the destruction of property

However, this is more out of an interest in protecting their own troops’

and the cost of putting out deliberately lit fires in Kuwaiti oil wells during

health or extending the working life of military facilities than in the

the 1991 Gulf War.

wider public-health implications. This is an important omission, given

The meeting was chaired by Dr Jeffrey Mazo, IISS Consulting Senior

the risks of birth defects, increased rates of certain cancers and damage

Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy and Consulting

to ecosystems.

Editor, Survival, and can be listened to here.

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IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY

NATO

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

The Changing International Order and NATO On 16 June IISS welcomed Dr Andrew Murrison MP, Minister for International Security Strategy, who delivered a keynote address as an opener to a series of NATO-focused IISS workshops and discussion meetings, taking place in the run-up to the NATO Summit Wales 2014 in September.

Murrison presented a clear agenda for the future of NATO. Laying out a series of propositions, the minister first advocated strong investment in maritime defence, reasoning that ‘we certainly need to recapture something of the strong contingent maritime capability of the 1980s’ in light of recent aggression and increasing tensions.

Secondly, although, as he acknowledged, ‘appetite for intervention has diminished’ since Iraq and Afghanistan, the countries of NATO must continue to partner investment with a clear strategic vision. Murrison reiterated the notion that ambiguity of intent can result in both a breakdown in relations and escalation to conflict, as the recent example of Russia’s

ITS Aviere from the NATO Mine Counter-Measures Group berths at Burgas, Bulgaria during deployment to the Black Sea, July 2014 (NATO)

annexation of Crimea and the resultant situation in Ukraine demonstrates.

‘NATO’s core purpose, its badge and its burden’, remains the ‘solemnity’

a world facing the reverberations of the US pivot to Asia, the end of the

of Article V and the pledge of collective self-defence. To this end, Murrison

International Security Assistance Force’s presence in Afghanistan, and the

espoused contingency planning, and crucially, the need for any and

continuing squeeze on defence budgets.

all capacity building to be part of a move to ‘reinvigorate and revitalise

This event was chaired by Alex Nicoll, Senior Fellow for Geo-

our network of alliances and groupings’. Integrating national resources

economics and Defence. A video including the Q&A session can be

can create flexibility and allow for more rapid response, which is vital in

watched here.

Rise of the machines? The increasing role of Unmanned Ground Systems in land operations In recent years, the use of unmanned ground systems (UGVs) in land operations has not been given the same media attention as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), despite the increasing sophistication of the technology and its proliferation in both military and civilian spheres. At an IISS discussion meeting on 22 May, Brigadier (retired) Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, redressed this neglect by examining the current status of these systems and positing future trends, as well as exploring the impacts and concerns that arise as these technologies develop and weaponised systems play an amplified role.

Barry reasoned that UAVs and UGVs will continue to be used by armies for low-level tactical operations with increasing variety. Considerable commercial R&D investment means that the rapid development of autonomous civilian cars and trucks creates potential in the ‘long run’ for ‘completely unmanned full-scale ground vehicles, for the full range of land warfare roles’.

With the attention that ‘increasing autonomy’ engenders come the safety, moral, ethical and legal issues. Barry argued that if these issues

US Marines use experimental technology in a training area during RIMPAC 2014 exercise (USMC/Sarah Dietz)

arise in the civilian sector first, they will be easier for the military to handle, and indeed, ‘it will be quite hard to argue that civilian technol-

armed’, other countries in the world may have no such reservations. This

ogy should not be transferred over to the military, particularly where it

consideration makes it likely that unmanned systems will continue to pro-

saves lives’. Barry highlighted the continuing relevance in this context of

liferate worldwide.

the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC). While these issues merit discussion,

The event was chaired by Alexander Nicoll, Senior Fellow for Geo-

it is important to note that even if Western nations have ‘some scruples’

economics and Defence. Read a follow-up blog post and listen to a

over ‘completely autonomous unmanned systems, especially if they are

recording of the event.

IISS NEWS

JULY 2014 | 15

SOUTH ASIA

INDIA

PAKISTAN

CONFLICT PREVENTION

India’s Maritime Security: Challenges and Opportunities

EXPERTS

India’s New Modi Government: What to Expect on Foreign and Security Policies

India’s two aircraft carriers: INS Viraat (behind) and INS Vikramaditya (Indian navy)

On 16 June, Vice President of the Indian Maritime Foundation Commodore (retired) A.J. Singh discussed the future of Indian maritime

Narendra Modi and other BJP leaders at an election rally, West Bengal (iStock/SaikatP)

security at an IISS-UK event chaired by Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury. Among many domestic concerns, Singh pointed

IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury spoke on newly

to India’s underdeveloped industrial base, which leaves the country reli-

elected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a 19 June discussion

ant on imported materials to build up its navy. He also noted the effects

meeting held at Arundel House. The event, chaired by IISS Director

of chronic underfunding, which continue to delay naval expansion pro-

for Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel Inkster, saw Roy-

grammes, often rendering new ships technologically obsolete by the time

Chaudhury present his foreign and security policy predictions for the new

they have been completed. Externally, Singh identified Chinese regional

government. He identified several indications that Modi, whose electoral

expansion as one of India’s primary concerns, as this is likely to initiate

mandate was evident through his landslide victory, would advocate a

competition for naval bases, trade routes, and seabed resources. He also

bolder approach to both issues. However, Roy-Chaudhury also noted that

cited the proximity of several declared and undeclared nuclear states as

Modi’s capacity to pursue such a course would be significantly affected by

another key threat to regional stability. Yet despite these challenges, Singh

the success of his domestic policies. Support for more assertive foreign and

expressed optimism in light of maritime security being declared a ‘top pri-

security policies would depend, he explained, on the extent to which Modi

ority’ by the new Modi government. India, he declared, is ‘on the cusp of

is able to improve key internal issues such as slow economic development

fulfilling its manifest destiny as a regional power’. Listen to a recording of

and inefficient governance methods. Read the full transcript or watch the

the event on our website.

event on the IISS website.

The Accidental Prime Minister: The Making and Unmaking of Monmohan Singh IISS Director for Geo-Economics and Strategy Dr Sanjaya Baru spoke on his recent book, The Accidental Prime Minister, at an 8 July discussion meeting held at Arundel House. The event, chaired by IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, saw Baru explore why the government of former Indian Prime Minister Monmohan Singh became so unpopular during his second term (2009–14), despite its impressive re-election vic-

Construction workers and their children returning to temporary dwellings in New Delhi (iStock/Daniel Berehulak)

tory. He revealed that although Singh had introduced successful foreign and economic policies during his first term, his failure to sustain high eco-

Singh’s weak second-term leadership. Baru noted that Modi’s victory and

nomic growth and tackle high-level corruption in his second contributed to

the decline of Sonia Gandhi’s Congress Party had marked the emergence

his defeat in 2014. These concerns allowed Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya

of a ‘Second Republic’ in India, in which the ideas and policies of Modi

Janata Party (BJP) to successfully project himself as a strong national leader,

and the BJP will replace those defined by the Congress Party over the past

meeting the aspirations of a new generation of young voters unhappy with

seven decades. Watch the event on our website.

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IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

ELECTIONS

SOUTH ASIA

Imperatives of Stability in South Asia IISS Visiting Fellow for South Asia (Strategic Affairs) Brigadier Zahir Kazmi examined the region’s key security concerns at a 3 July discussion meeting held at Arundel House. Kazmi noted that while both India and Pakistan consider nuclear weapons a factor of stability in their relationship, the potential for crisis and conflict cannot be completely ruled out.

Reducing this risk, he explained, is contingent on political, military and

Pakistani IRBMs at a defence exhibition in Karachi (Wikipedia)

multilateral nuclear-diplomacy imperatives. In the first instance, Kazmi emphasised the necessity of breaking the political stalemate to allow for

Lastly, Kazmi advocated the induction of both India and Pakistan into the

reasonable discussion and compromise, rather than relying solely on

global nuclear non-proliferation regime by providing both countries with

nuclear deterrence to prevent the escalation of bilateral tensions. Militarily,

non-discriminatory and uniform criteria-based access to peaceful nuclear

he warned against efforts to circumvent established nuclear deterrence pol-

technology. The event was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior

icies in an attempt to allow for strike action below established thresholds.

Fellow for South Asia.

Pakistan: Fostering Regional Cooperation and Stability

distinguished by a continuing commitment to the peaceful resolution of

At a 7 July event, Amer Hashmi, advisor at Islamabad’s National

complement this commitment to stability, including a youth bulge, rapid

University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) and President of the

urbanization, and the spread of education. He concluded that the para-

NUST Global Think Tank Network (GTTN), examined South Asia’s

digm of power maximization dominating international relations must

potential for comprehensive development. IISS Senior Fellow for South

be transcended in South Asia. This, he argued, would facilitate devel-

Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury chaired the discussion at Arundel House.

opment by addressing the friction produced by regional and domestic

Hashmi argued that Pakistan is actively contributing to the strength-

disparities.

regional differences. These efforts, he added, are being reinforced by the country’s on-going democratic transition, new civil-military alliance, and dedication to eliminating terrorist activities from its soil.

Hashmi also identified positive domestic and regional trends that

ening of South Asian security and stability through mature diplomacy

Listen to an audio recording of the event.

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

#BringBackOurGirls: The Incident That Put Boko Haram on the Map Following the April abduction of over 200 girls by Boko Haram Islamists in northern Nigeria, international outrage led to an unprecedented social media campaign and several world leaders offered to assist in Nigeria’s recovery efforts.

At a joint event hosted by the new IISS Security and Development Programme and Women in International Security–UK (WIIS–UK), Virginia Comolli, IISS Research Fellow for Security and Development; Paul Edwards, Head of Political Section, British High Commission, Abuja and Bala Mohammed Liman, PhD Candidate, School of Oriental and African Studies, analysed the incident and its broader repercussions, including the further weakening of President Jonathan’s credibility.

The panel discussed the role of foreign partners, particularly the United Kingdom and the United States, in attempting to resolve the situation in

A rally for the missing Chibok school girls in Lagos, Nigeria, May 2014 (Pius Utomi/ Getty)

Nigeria. This crisis goes well beyond the recent abductions to include a deadly on-going insurgency campaign in the northeast of the country and

fade ahead of the 2015 presidential elections. The discussion, held on 21

deepening widespread political and social tensions that are unlikely to

May, was off-the-record.

IISS NEWS

JULY 2014 | 17

IISS–US

ASIA-PACIFIC

SYRIA

EXPERTS

UKRAINE

Is there an Arms Race in Asia?

often driven by security dilemmas—but that is not necessarily what is currently being witnessed in the Asian context. While defence spending has grown in Asia, defence spending in terms of GDP across the region remains relatively limited. In addition, the nature of Asian state relations is counterintuitive to the concept of a regional arms race because there are different bilateral relationships, and no single relationship dictates the dynamic in the region. Indeed, China’s assertiveness has pushed its neighbours to be more accepting of the US presence. Le Mière pointed out the US has always been a strong presence in the region, and while there is a rebalance within Asia occurring, it is not so much a ‘pivot’.

Douglas Paal explained that when considering the rapid growth of the Chinese military it is important to factor in their relatively weak starting point. China began to build military capabilities as its economy took off over the past two decades. The country has expanded its capacity and

USS Lake Erie leads ships of the US navy and South Korean navy during an exercise in the East China Sea, March 2014 (Michael Achterling/US Navy)

assertiveness over time; this is not a new trend. Nevertheless, while the idea of an arms race might not accurately depict Asian military trends, Paal contends that the US has refocused on supporting allies in the region.

The IISS–US hosted Christian Le Mière, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces

China’s view of this rebalance is as an organised effort orchestrated against

and Maritime Security and Douglas Paal, Vice President for Studies and

them, while the American government’s response is that the US strategy in

Director of the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International

Asia is not necessarily containment. Paal explained the US is there to pro-

Peace on 26 June. The two discussed trends of increased military procure-

tect its interests. To conclude, Le Mière noted that while the US and China

ment in Asia, and specifically, the implications of the renewed US focus

have a deep sense of mistrust toward each other, there are possibilities for

on the region.

military-to-military engagement, such as in the event of natural disasters

According to Le Mière, an ‘arms race’ implies competition in military

and humanitarian relief missions, which provide opportunities for joint

procurement between nation states with no specific end goals, which is

cooperation.

Syria After Geneva, the Elections, and ISIS

The Ukraine Crisis: Origins and Outlook

Images of Bashar al-Assad, President of Syria, in a Damascus street (James Gordon)

Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, spoke at

Pro-Russian forces in Crimea, March 2014 (iStock/AndreyKrav)

the IISS–US about the origins and implications of the Syrian Civil War. Hokayem explained that Syria is essentially undergoing a de-facto par-

On 19 June, Dr Samuel Charap gave a talk in the IISS–US New York series

tition, but that such a partition is not a viable solution to the conflict.

with Thomas Graham of Kissinger Associates as the discussant, hosted by

Consequently, political settlement is unlikely any time soon. The conflict,

Rick Grove at the office of Rutter Associates in Manhattan. Charap, IISS

Hokayem posited, is liable to endure another 5–10 years before any sort

Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, spoke on the origins of the Ukraine

of settlement is reached. Despite insurgency from an increasingly diverse

crisis; scenarios for its future evolution; and the Western policy response,

number of rebel groups, the Syrian government has retained an upper

including EU and US sanctions and their implications. Charap highlighted

hand in the conflict. Hokayem explained that the regime’s survival has

the significant lack of diplomatic contact between the various parties

become less dubious over the past two years; in fact, pro-Assad forces are

involved in the conflict and how that communications gap was worsening

at their strongest since 2012. The event was chaired by Bryce Campbell,

odds for a collective compromise or substantial negotiations in the imme-

Managing Director, IISS–US and can be watched here.

diate term.

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IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

CYBER SECURITY

IISS–US

How the US is Perceived in the Cyber Domain by Other Major Actors On 25 June IISS–US hosted a public discussion on how the US is perceived

by Russia, China, and other major actors in the cyber domain. Nigel Inkster, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk; Dr Eneken TikkRingas, Senior Fellow for Cyber Security; and Rafal Rohozinski, Consulting

US 24th Air Force cyber facility, Lackland Air Force Base (US DoD)

Senior Fellow for Cyber Security, spoke to an audience at the Washington office on the concerns of Russia and China with the United States’ bilateral

belief among Russian policymakers is that China’s rapid growth will soon

approach to cyber regulation, coalition formation in shaping cyber policy,

make it the largest cyber power. Inkster echoed this sentiment, explaining

and the challenges of regulating and enforcing cyber laws across interna-

how a growing China sees itself as a future cyber leader and is concerned

tional boundaries. They also discussed future challenges and the potential

that the US is seeking to stem its rise. China sees the US as trying to domi-

for industry to take the lead in determining state cyber strategy.

nate and militarise the cyber domain, and thus officials within the People’s

Tikk-Ringas addressed Russian perceptions of US cyber policies, spe-

Liberation Army and foreign policy communities view US criticism of

cifically Russia’s concerns with American unwillingness to bring cyber

Chinese cyber tactics as hypocritical. Finally, Rohozinski discussed how

issues to international forums. The United States’ track record of solving

the US experience with Edward Snowden in 2013 led to increased state

cyber issues bilaterally is troubling to Russia, although the commonly held

power over the cyber domain in the former Soviet Union.

EXPERTS

UKRAINE

RUSSIA–EURASIA

The Ukraine Crisis and the Future of the Russia-EU Gas Relationship Pierre Noël, the IISS Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security, spoke at Arundel House on 12 May as Russia moved closer to cutting the gas supply to Ukraine over unpaid bills, and against the background of a crisis in bilateral relations. Dr Noël argued that Ukraine had for years leveraged its monopoly over the transit of Russian gas to Europe, in order to keep its own gas prices low and so avoid economic reform. The latest crisis is a result of a joint decision by Russia and

An oil terminal in Feodosiya in the Crimea (iStock)

some European firms to erode Ukraine’s monopoly by building bypass pipelines.

Looking to Europe, Dr Noël drew a sharp distinction between inte-

prevents the establishment of a gas monopsony in the less-integrated parts of the continent.

grated markets in northwestern Europe and those in eastern Europe that

This meeting was chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial

are dependent on Russia. The fault for this, he argued, lies largely with the

and Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security. A video of

European Commission, which has failed to establish a unified market and

the event can be watched here.

MEMBERSHIP

Exclusive Services for Members The Library has recently purchased two new exciting products, which offer great benefits to members. The first is a new database, the International Security and Counter-Terrorism Reference Centre (ISCTRC), that offers

database and open source material on the theme of international rela-

full-text access to over 3,000 items relating to international security or

tions, plus searches IISS Library catalogue holdings.

terrorism, such as journal articles, e-books, reports, etc. The second is the EBSCO Discovery Platform, a highly configurable one-stop search facility

Members can access this platform via links in the members’ area or the Library area of the IISS website.

that searches and provides full-text access to items from both the ISCTRC IISS NEWS

JULY 2014 | 19

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

MANAMA DIALOGUE

IRAN

SYRIA

INDIA

EXPERTS

IISS Manama Dialogue Preparatory IISS and the Norwegian Embassy Sherpa Meeting in the UAE

EU–Iran discussions during the nuclear negotiations in Vienna, April 2014 (EU)

GCC members meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June 2014 (Getty/Fayez Nureldine)

On 19 May, the IISS convened its annual Manama Dialogue Preparatory

On 8 June, the IISS and the Royal Norwegian Embassy in Abu Dhabi

Sherpa Meeting in the Kingdom of Bahrain. Each year, this meeting

convened a joint panel discussion at the St Regis Hotel, Abu Dhabi.

launches the IISS Manama Dialogue process, an established component

Ambassador Sten Anders Berge delivered the opening remarks, after

of the regional security architecture advancing Gulf policy that culminates

which the following IISS experts spoke on the panel: Dr Sanjaya Baru,

with the IISS Manama Dialogue in December. This year’s Sherpa meeting

Director for Geo-Economics and Strategy; Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal

endeavoured to shape the 2014 Manama Dialogue research agenda. This

Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security; Emile Hokayem,

programme will serve as a framework for both the conference itself and

Senior Fellow for Regional Security; and Dr Samuel Charap, Senior Fellow

for IISS–Middle East headquarters research activities, which generate key

for Russia and Eurasia. The participants explored a range of topics, such as

analysis for regional leaders in defence and diplomacy. The agenda’s cen-

the crisis in Ukraine and its subsequent regional impact, as well as over-

tral themes are The Spillover from Syria, The Role of Outside Powers in the Gulf

arching regional security issues, including the future of GCC relations with

and Iran’s Nuclear Negotiations and Afterwards. IISS senior staff and selected

Iran. This panel discussion served as the IISS–Middle East headquarters’

government officials, expected to play a pivotal role in this year’s Manama

preparatory framework for the forthcoming IISS Global Strategic Review

Dialogue, assessed each one of these themes at the Sherpa meeting, which

(GSR). This year’s GSR will be held from 19–21 September in Oslo, Norway.

was entirely off the record.

Outside Powers in the Gulf

Economics & Strategy and ‘Outside Powers in the Gulf and The Effects

On 11 June, the IISS–Middle East convened a workshop on the role of

by Dr Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East.

outside powers in the Gulf as part of its work on the Manama Dialogue

The workshop convened senior government officials, military officials

research agenda. The event included the following sessions: ‘The Gulf in

and other key players from the region, and will produce a series of special

Global Perspective’, chaired by Dr Sanjaya Baru, IISS Director for Geo-

papers to be made available at this year’s IISS Manama Dialogue.

of the “Pivot” on the Foreign Policy Behaviour of the Gulf States’, chaired

The Business and Foreign Policies of the New Government in India On 12 June, the IISS–Middle East convened an off-the-record panel discussion to explore the future of the new Indian government. The event, part of the IISS Global Perspectives Series, was chaired by IISS Director for Geo-economics and Strategy Dr Sanjaya Baru. Ambassador Mohan Kumar, Ambassador of India to the Kingdom of Bahrain; Dr Rahul Roy-

Commuters on the Delhi metro (iStock/Daniel Berehulak)

Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia; and Arun Kumar, Senior Private Equity Professional and Angel Investor, participated as panellists.

of corruption during the previous, Congress-led government. They also

They noted that the Modi government is expected to focus on two key

examined Modi’s indications that his government will be more open to

priorities – economic revival, as the recent reduction in growth has affected

foreign investment in a number of areas, including strategic sectors. The

investor confidence, and domestic governance, amidst several allegations

discussion was followed by a lively question and answer session.

20

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IISS NEWS

PUBLICATIONS

New Dossier Launched at the Shangri-La Dialogue On the opening day of the 13th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue a panel of IISS experts convened for the launch of the Regional Security Assessment 2014: Key developments and trends in Asia-Pacific Security, the first IISS Strategic Dossier to be released in association with the Singapore summit. The Dossier focuses on issues that reflect the most important themes to emerge from successive Dialogues, including the evolving regional roles of the major powers, most significantly the US, China, Japan and India.

Within the assessment experts provide their perspectives on potential

evolving and potentially dangerous. At the same time, it highlights the

flashpoints in Asia-Pacific stability, notably the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan

intractability of the most important security dilemmas and emphasises the

and the territorial disputes in the East and South China seas. Questions of

need for sophisticated and agile policymaking, in order to prevent a fur-

military competition in the region and the ever-crucial task of creating a

ther deterioration in regional security.

stable regional order are discussed alongside an appraisal of the pervasive

Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS, chaired both the

low-intensity security concerns that have emerged in recent years, such

Singapore launch on 30 May and the subsequent UK launch on 15 June.

as insurgencies in South Asia and the increasing threats to cyber security.

Both events featured Q&A sessions after presentations from the experts:

This IISS Strategic Dossier underlines the extent to which the Asia-

the Singapore launch can be watched here, and the UK launch can be

Pacific’s contemporary security environment is hugely complex, rapidly

watched here.

New IISS Strategic Dossier REGIONAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT 2014 Key developments and trends in Asia-Pacific security Since 2002, the International Institute for Strategic Studies has organised the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore as a venue at which defence ministers, military and top-ranking defence officials from AsiaPacific states, and other powers heavily involved in the region, are able to discuss the most important regional security matters of the day. The Dialogue has become a fixture in the calendars of key Asia-Pacific defence decision-makers from 27 countries, and in mid-2014 it convened for the thirteenth time.

This Regional Security Assessment 2014 is the first IISS Strategic Dossier to be issued in association with the Shangri-La Dialogue. It focuses on issues reflecting the most important themes to emerge from successive Dialogues: • The evolving regional roles of the major powers, • Pervasive low-intensity security concerns, from particularly the United States and China, but also

insurgencies in Southeast Asia to transnational threats

Japan and India, among others.

relating to maritime, resource and cyber security.

• The dangers posed by potential flashpoints, • The crucial overarching questions of military

THIS PUBLICATION CAN BE PURCHASED ONLINE:

notably the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan and territorial

competition in the region and how best to

www.iiss.org/publications/ strategic dossiers

disputes in the East and South China seas.

construct a more secure and stable regional order.

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JULY 2014 | 21