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CONTENTS
MAIN TOPIC
52-53 REPORT International Rail Business Forum 1520 Strategic Partnership: Asia Pacific Opens in China
56-72 REPORT 16th Asia CemenTrade Summit
46-51 Report of CILF2014 with Analysis on Exhibitor & Visitor, Date of CILF2015, Oct. 14-16, 2015
SALVO GLOBAL - ADVANCED FORECASTING, INVENTORY AND WAREHOUSE MANAGEMENT
73
74
GLOBAL
75
EVENTS AGENDA
Ports tighten ship entry procedures as Ebola fears spread
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MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain and Logistics (ITSCL) and Intralogistics (ILI) brought together 4234 professionals in the logistics, supply chain and material handling arena November 2014–The first edition of Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain and Logistics (ITSCL) andIntralogistics (ILI), Indonesia’s only dedicated logistics exhibition and conference for the supply chain, logistics and material handling industry, concluded with a resounding success. Graced by the Minister of Transportation, PakIgnasius Jonan for its opening, the inauguralevent garnered the participation of 102 companies from 16 countries and welcomed more than 4234international visitorsfrom 22 countries over 3 days of trading from 29th to 31st October 2014 at JIExpo, Kemayoran. A long-awaited platform for the industry As an inaugural launch, ITSCL / ILI has exceeded expectations with visitors and exhibitors alike singing praises for the event. “I came to visit the show as I am thinking of exhibiting in 2015. It is a really well organised show and I should have been here this time. I have missed a good opportunity, but will definitely be here in 2015,”Theodorus S.Y.W, Procurement Department Head of PT GS Battery commented. “ITSCL / ILI provides a networking platform for us to meet our key customers in the relationships with them. There were more visitors than expected for a first exhibition and we hope the event next year will improve even further,” mentioned JeremieBouin, R&D Manager of ID Logistics. “I have been amazed at the quality and range of products available here. I am currently looking to develop several projects, so it’s been definitely worth attending,”SangudinUdien, Logistics Manager of PT.Sinar Meadow shared. “I managed to exchange interesting information and improve my knowledge with the participating companies that I havemet here,” commented Daisuke Okonogi, Strategic Supply Chain Development Department, PT. Sumitomo Indonesia.
Trade floor abuzz over the 3 days The trade floor was active with business deals being concluded and partnerships inked. More than USD 33,150,000 worth of business deals were concluded over the 3 days, and expected over the next 12 months as a result of the event. As an affirmation of the 5-year partnershipinked between PTPuninar Infinite Raya and PT Scania Parts Indonesia, a signing ceremony was held at the event floor on the 30th October, where Mr Robby Kurniawan, CEO of PuninarInfinite Raya and Mr Peter Friberg, Vice President, General Purchasing of Scania Parts were present to mark the joyous occasion. 31st October saw the celebration of another 5-year collaboration between PTPuninar Infinite Raya and PT PrasmanindoBogaUtama, with Mr Robby Kurniawan and MsNoni Kwee ofPT PrasmanindoBogaUtama present at ITSCL / ILI to commemorate the partnership.
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
MAIN TOPIC
Conferenceprogramme was well received The conference line-up was well-received with a total of 256delegates in attendance to learn about the latest in the industry. Delegates found the sessions useful and insightful, with many posing questions and sharingobservationsduring the Question and Answer sessions. “We were especially happy with ITSCL / ILI Conference, which gave great insights into what is going on in our industry and allowed us to make new and relevant contacts from across the industry,” said RuruhPutroSusteyo, Industrial Analyst from PT Telkom Indonesia.
Support from Key Partners The strong support from Indonesia Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KADIN), Indonesian Logistics and Forwarders Association (ALFI), and Indonesian Logistics Association (ALI) has been integral in the success of the event.The industry recognises the need to come together in a single platform to make effortsin increasing efficiency in Indonesia’s logistics and supply chain sector. “Indonesia is at a stage where transport and logistics are top priorities for the nation. This is very important especially with the start of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) next year. The launch of theITSCL / ILI event is acriticaleffort towards realisingthis vision,”commented Carmelita Hartoto, Vice Chairman for Logistics Affairs of Indonesia Chambers of Commerce & Industry (KADIN). “Partners and industry players have come together in this event to network, raise technical knowledge as well as exchange ideas. The positive vibes from participants resonate the fact that an event like ITSCL / ILI has been much needed in the industry,” said YukkiNugrahawan Hanafi, Chairman of Indonesia Logistics and Forwarders Association (ALFI/ILFA). “The industry must unite to improve Indonesia’s logistics and supply sector, so as to be ready for the ASEAN Single Market in 2015. ITSCL / ILI has proven itself to be an effective platform for the industry to come together to seek solutions in reducing logistics costs in Indonesia,” ZaldyMasita, Chairman of Indonesia Logistics Association (ALI). “It is heartening to note thepositiveexperience the participants had gained from the event and I am glad to announce that the first edition exceeded our expectations. We are pleased by the range of products and services presented by the participating companies and we recognise the efforts that the exhibiting companies took to present themselves at the show floor. Wewould not have been able to do this without the solid partnership we have with KADIN, ALFI, and ALIand we are confident the next edition of ITSCL / ILI will be an even better one, so as to establish ITSCL / ILI as the only credible event for the industry,”shared Mr James Boey, General Manager of Reed Panorama Exhibitions. Supported by KADIN, ALFI and ALI and organized by Reed Panorama Exhibitions, ITSCL and ILI is part of 19Reed Transport & Logistics international events held within the transport, logistics and materials handling sector.ITSCL and ILI will return next year from 7th to 9thOctober 2014 in Jakarta, Indonesia. Please see the websites www.transport-supplychain-logistics.co.id and www.intralogistics-indonesia.co.id for the latest updates and registration.
About Reed Panorama Exhibitions PT Reed Panorama Exhibitions (RPE) is a joint venture between the world’s leading event organizer Reed Exhibitions and Indonesia’s leading tourism, transportation and hospitality group of companies, the Panorama Group. RPE aims to create professional, quality business to business platforms by working closely with relevant government agencies, industry partners, trade associations, venue owners, contractors and customers so as to deliver events for the industry by the industry. -Endplease contact: Ella Haryanto, Marketing Communication Manager PT. Reed Panorama Exhibitions Panorama Building 5th Floor Jl. Tomang Raya No. 63. Jakarta Barat 11440. Indonesia T: +62 21 2556 5035 F: +62 21 2556 5040 M: +62 817 494 5000 E: ella.haryanto@reedpanorama.com W: www.reedpanorama.com
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
Speaker Presentations Carmelita Hartoto BEYOND CABOTAGE DI INDONESIA KOMITMEN NEGARA
SHIPPING INDUSTRY Offshore oil and gas industry
“Kita harus bekerja dengan sekeraskerasnya untuk mengembalikan Indonesia sebagai negara maritim. Samudra, laut, selat dan teluk adalah masa depan peradaban kita. Kita telah terlalu lama memunggungi laut, memunggungi samudra, memunggungi selat dan teluk “
Efficient fisheries
Ship design
Maritime education
Maritime R&D
Shipping finance
Joko Widodo Presiden Republik Indonesia
Maritim policies
Maritime IT
Shipping insurance
Specialized ship yards Advanced ship equipment
SHIPPING INDUSTRY
Shipping brokers
Shipping management
Logistics systems
Ports and terminals
Environmental standards
Shipping classification services
PEMBERDAYAAN INDUSTRI PELAYARAN
Human resource services
ASAS CABOTAGE
BEYOND CABOTAGE
MP3EI
SISLOGNAS
SUCCESS STORY ASAS CABOTAGE No
1
Komoditi
General Cargo
Pangsa Muatan (%) 1 Jan 2006
Pangsa Muatan (%) 1 Jan 2007
Pangsa Muatan (%) 1 Jan 2008
Pangsa Muatan (%) 1 Jan 2009
Pangsa Muatan (%) 1 Jan 2010
Pangsa Muatan (%) 1 Jan 2011
Kapal Indonesia
Kapal Asing
Kapal Indonesia
Kapal Asing
Kapal Indonesia
Kapal Asing
Kapal Indonesia
Kapal Asing
Kapal Indonesia
Kapal Asing
Kapal Indonesia
Kapal Asing
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
2
Wood
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
3
Fertilizer
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
4
Cement
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
5
Rice
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
6
Fresh product
95
5
95
5
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
7
CPO
80
20
80
20
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
8
Other grains
70
30
70
30
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
9
Mine and Quarry
40
60
40
60
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
10
Agri grain
70
30
70
30
80
20
100
0
100
0
100
0
11
Other liquid
40
60
40
60
65
35
100
0
100
0
100
0
12
Coal
60
40
60
40
75
25
95
5
100
0
100
0
13
Oil/ Petroleum
40
60
40
60
60
40
90
10
100
0
100
0
Komoditi
5
5
9
11
13
13
Penunjang Kegiatan usaha hulu dan hilir minyak dan gas bumi (offshore) dilaksanakan selambat-lambatnya 1 Januari 2011
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
CABOTAGE DI BIDANG OFFSHORE SURVEY MINYAK & GAS BUMI
2014
Suismic Survey, Ghoephysical Survey, Geotechnical Survey
KONSTRUKSI LEPAS PANTAI
2014
Derrick/crane, pipe/ cable/ Subsea Umbilical Riser Flexible vessel;
PENGERUKAN
(SURF) laying barge/
2014
Drag-head suction hopper dredger lebih dari 5000 m3; & trailing suction hopper dredger lebih dari 5000 m3.
SALVAGE & PEKERJAAN BAWAH AIR
2014
PENGEBORAN
2015
Heavy floating crane, heavy crane barge; & survey salvage
Jack up rig; semi submersible rig; deep water drill ship; tender assist rig; and swamp barge rig. PERKEMBANGAN KAPAL NASIONAL
DAMPAK ASAS CABOTAGE PERPAJAKAN: Penerimaan pajak /Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) meningkat
PERBANKAN: Permintaan pembiayaan untuk pembelian kapal meningkat drastis. GALANGAN: Kegiatan reparasi dan pembangunan kapal baru berkembang pesat.
USAHA PBM: Usaha bongkar muat bertumbuh sejalan kenaikan arus barang
LOGISTIK: Biaya logistik melalui moda transportasi laut semakin kompetitif.
KETENAGAKERJAAN: Mampu menyerap ratusan ribu tenaga kerja langsung di bidang pelayaran.
PERDAGANGAN: Konektivitas perdagangan antarpulau semakin efisien. ASURANSI: Bisnis asuransi marine di Indonesia semakin berkembang.
KEPELABUHANAN: Bisnis kepelabuhanan di Indonesia meningkat
KAPAL INDONESIA DI ASEAN
2005 Philipina 2005 >> 3,95 Jt dwt. 2013>> 5,73 Jt dwt. Indonesia 2005 >> 366 Jt dwt. 2013>> 12,88 Jt dwt.
Singapura 2005 >> 12,42 Jt dwt. 2013>> 32,83Jt dwt. Sumber : Review of Maritime Transport, UNCTAD Tahun 2005 s/d 2013, (Vessels of 1.000 GT and above)
14,000
12,000
10,000
DEVISA: Tercatat hingga 2012, cabotage mampu menyelamatkan devisa yang menguap Rp32 triliun.
Malaysia 2005 >> 6,05 Jt dwt. 2013>> 9,75 Jt dwt.
TUMBUH LEBIH DARI 110% DENGAN TOTAL INVESTASI US$20,6 MILIAR 14.300 Unit
Rangking pelayaran nasional berada dibawah Singapura, Malaysia dan Philipina.
2013
Rangking pelayaran nasional berada pada posisi kedua, menyalip Malaysia dan Philipina.
8,000
6,000
6.041 Unit
4,000
Rata-rata tumbuh 7-10% per tahun
2,000
0
2005
2014
DARI CABOTAGE MENUJU BEYOND CABOTAGE Mei 2008 Pemerintah Menerbitkan UU No.17 tahun 2008
Maret 2005 Pemerintah menerbitkan Insruksi Presiden No.5 tahun 2005
Mei 2010 INSA Mulai Memperkenalkan Program Beyond Cabotage.
April 2010 Lahirlah PP No.20 /2010 Tentang Angkutan di Perairan
ASAS CABOTAGE
9 Oktober 2012. INSA & BUMN membentuk Task Force Beyond Cabotage
Maret 2013. Dibentuk Tim Khusus Term of Trade CIF untuk Ekspor
Juli 2011 Rapat Umum Anggota (RUA) INSA Merekomendasikan Agenda INSA tentang Beyond Cabotage
PMK No.41/2014 tentang Pencatatan Ekspor wajib menggunakan CIF.
27 Februari 2013 MoU CIF untuk ekspor antara Mendag, Kadin Indonesia, INSA, Apindo, GPEI, ALFI, ASEI dan Indonesia Exim Bank.
BEYOND CABOTAGE
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
TENTANG BEYOND CABOTAGE
VOLUME PERDAGANGAN EKSPOR-IMPOR
Beyond Cabotage: Kegiatan Angkutan Ekspor dan Impor Indonesia Menggunakan Kapal yang dioperasikan oleh perusahaan pelayaran nasional, berbendera nasional dan atau diawaki oleh awak berkebangsaan Indonesia.
Volume Ekspor-Impor Indonesia
Tujuan Beyond Cabotage: Membantu negara memaksimalkan kegiatan perdagangan luar negeri sebagai lokomotif pertumbuhan melalui upaya mengamankan potensi devisa dari Insurance dan freight yang selama ini hilang sebesar IDR 120 triliun per tahun. Pengembangan Daya Saing Industri dan Penciptaan lapangan Kerja di sektor Perkapalan serta Asuransi Nasional.
Juta Ton
Uraian
2010
2011
2013
Volume Ekspor Indonesia
478,9
582,2
600,1
Volume Impor Indonesia
110,7
128,2
136,3
Jumlah
589,6
710,4
736,4
Volume Ekspor
81,5%
Peran transportasi laut dalam angkutan ekspor-impor Uraian
2011
2013
Total Volume Ekspor/Impor
2010 589,60
710,40
736,40
Porsi Moda Transportasi Laut
567,20
580,87
587,70
22,4
129,53
148,7
Porsi Moda non-Transportasi Laut.
Volume Angkutan Laut Luar Negeri
79,8%
Sumber: BPS, Kenehub, diolah
15
ANGKUTAN LAUT LUAR NEGERI
SASARAN PROGRAM BEYOND CABOTAGE
Pangsa pasar angkutan laut luar negeri (ekspor dan impor) Indonesia jauh Juta Ton lebih besar dibandingkan dengan pangsa pasar dalam negeri. Uraian
2010
2011
2012
Muatan Laut Luar Negeri
567,20
580,87
587,70
Muatan Laut Dalam Negeri
309,00
320,25
355,02
Jumlah
876,20
901,12
942,72
KONDISI SAAT INI
Meskipun pangsa pasar angkutan ekspor-impor lebih besar, tetapi peran kapal nasional masih sangat kecil di sektor angkutan ekspor-impor. Volume
2010
2011
2012
SASARAN/ TARGET
EKSPOR FOB
C&F ATAU CIF
IMPOR CIF
FOB
Tahun
Batubara
Nikel
CPO
Jumlah
Total Muatan
Share Tiga Komoditas
Muatan kapal luar negeri
516,04
525,69
532,50
2010
208
10
16,45
234,45
567,20
41,3%
Persentage
90,98%
525,69%
90,14%
2011
273
33
17,07
323,07
580,87
55,6%
2012
304
28
18,15
350,15
587,70
59,6%
Muatan kapal nasional
51,16
55,18
55,20
Persentage
9,02%
9,50%
9,86%
567,20
580,87
587,70
Jumlah Sumber: BPS, Kemenhub, diolah
TANTANGAN BEYOND CABOTAGE Sedikitnya tiga tantangan yang harus dijawab untuk mensukseskan CIF atas angkutan ekspor di Indonesia. PAYUNG HUKUM Persiapkan kontrak cargo volume bagi pelayaran nasional.
KONTRAK KARGO
Segera tetapkan payung hukum CIF (Inpres atau Permen)
ROADMAP CIF
Semua instansi/lembaga bergerak untuk mensukseskan beyond cabotage, baik fiskal, moneter atau lainnya.
Implementasi CIF pada aktivitas ekspor Indonesia diperkirakan mampu menambah penerimaan devisa sebesar 10% dari nilai ekspor sekitar US$20 miliar. Target pertama adalah komoditas utama ekspor Indonesia seperti batu bara, nikel dan CPO.
USULAN ROADMAP BEYOND CABOTAGE
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
DIPERLUKAN INSENTIF FISKAL o
Revisi PP No. 38/2003 untuk: - Membebaskan PPN atas penjualan kapal yang dimiliki kurang dari 5 tahun supaya tidak dikenakan PPN 10%. - Pembebasan PPN atas pembelian bunker kapal agar tarif angkutan laut lebih kompetitif. - Pembebasan PPN atas kegiatan bongkar muat container/cargo pada jalur perdagangan internasional agar tarif cargo lebih bersaing.
o
Revisi PMK No. 80 tahun 2012 agar membebaskan voyage charter dari PPN 10%.
o
Revisi UU PPH No. 17/2000 tentang import kapal Floating Crane tidak dikenakan PPN dan PPh.
PROYEKSI INVESTASI
VESSEL TYPE
USD >=20jt
Bulk Carrier
v
Tanker
v
Container
V
USD <20jt
Tug and Barge
USD <10jt
USD <1.5jt
v
General Cargo
v
VLCC/VLGC
V
KESIMPULAN
Thank You
o Perusahaan pelayaran nasional siap mendukung dan melaksanakan program beyond cabotage atas angkutan ekspor dan impor Indonesia. o Komoditas strategis dan menjadi kontributor terbesar terhadap total volume ekspor nasional seperti batu bara, bijih nikel dan CPO perlu segera diangkut oleh kapal nasional.
Any Questions….?? May be directed via email to INSA Email address: info@insa.or.id
o Kondisi harga kapal yang turun di tengah menguatnya pasar domestik merupakan waktu yang tepat untuk investasi pembelian kapal.
Erwin Reza EPI-SEMINAR ITSCL JIEXPO 29 OTK 2014 INTEGRASI EKONOMI GLOBAL IMPLEMENTASI PENGEMBANGAN SISTEM LOGISTIK NASIONAL
Disampaikan pada Seminar Indonesia Transport Supply Chain and Logistics 2014 Jakarta International Expo Kemayoran, 29 Oktober 2014
Lembaga Pemerintah Pengatur: 1. PBB 2. WTO 3. WCO 4. ISO
Lembaga Pemerintah Pendukung: 1. Bank Dunia 2. IMF
Lembaga Kerjasama Swasta: 1. ICC 2. ITC 3. CODEX
SIFAT KERJASAMA EKONOMI INTERNASIONAL: 1. Blok Pasar 2. Perluasan Pasar : Free Trade Agreement (FTA) 3. Pertukaran Potensi Ekonomi (Comprehensive Economic Partnership – EPA)
MAIN TOPIC EKSTERNAL
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
PERUBAHAN PUSAT PERTUMBUHAN DAN KELESUAN EKONOMI GLOBAL
INTEGRASI PASAR REGIONAL & GLOBAL
LOGISTICS SERVICES Salah satu dari 12 sektor yang menjadi target prioritas integrasi untuk mewujudkan Komunitas Ekonomi ASEAN
Sumber: WEO-IMF
Slide 4
APEC SUPPLY CHAIN CONNECTIVITY: THE THREE-TRACK ASSESSMENT Pada tahun 2015 semua economy (anggota APEC) harus mengurangi 10% Cost, 10% Time, dan 10% uncertainty of supply chain
WTO TRADE FACILITIATION : Semua anggota WTO harus mengacu kepada disiplin WTO Trade Facilitation
PERPRES No.26/2012 TENTANG CETAK BIRU PENGEMBANGAN SISTIM LOGISTIK NASIONAL (SISLOGNAS) SEBAGAI RESPON MENGAHADAPI KOMUNITAS EKONOMI ASEAN DAN INTEGRASI GLOBAL Slide 5
MASYARAKAT EKONOMI ASEAN 2015 1. Pasar Tunggal dan Basis Produksi Regional: arus barang, jasa, dan investasi yg bebas, tenaga kerja yang lebih bebas, arus permodalan yang lebih bebas; 2. Kawasan Berdaya-saing Tinggi: kebijakan persaingan usaha, perlindungan konsumen, Hak Kekayaan Intektual, pembangunan infrastruktur, kerjasama energi, perpajakan, e-Commerce; 3. Kawasan dengan Pembangunan Ekonomi yang Merata: pengembangan UKM, mempersempit kesenjangan pembangunan antar negara ASEAN; 4. Integrasi dengan Perekonomian Dunia: pendekatan koheren terhadap hubungan ekonomi eksternal, partisipasi yang semakin meningkat dalam jaringan suplai global Slide 6
INDONESIA DI MATA DUNIA No.
Jenis Peringkat
Peringkat (2011)
Peringkat (2012)
Peringkat (2013)
Sumber
Produk berbasis Agro; Barang dari kayu; Tekstil dan produk tekstil (TPT); Produk karet; Elektonika; Perikanan; Otomotif ; e-ASEAN; Kesehatan; Penerbangan; Pariwisata; Logistik;
World Competitiveness Scoreboard
37 dari 59
42 dari 59
39 dari 59
IMD
2.
Global Competitiveness Index
46 dari 142
50 dari 144
38 dari 144
World Economic Forum
3.
Human Development Index
124 dari 179
124 dari 141
108 dari 141
UNDP
4.
Global Innovation Index
99 dari 125
100 dari 141
85 dari 142
INSEAD
5.
Logistics Performance Index
75 dari 155
59 dari 155
53 dari 155
World Bank
Slide 8
Perpres No.26 Tahun 2012 CETAK BIRU PENGEMBANGAN SISTIM LOGISTIK NASIONAL (SISLOGNAS) SEBAGAI RESPON KEBIJAKAN MENGAHADAPI KOMUNITAS EKONOMI ASEAN DAN INTEGRASI GLOBAL
Logistics Vission 2025: “Locally Integrated, Globally Connected for National Competitiveness and Social Welfare”
VISI 2025 Locally Integrated, Globally Connected for National Competitiveness and Social Welfare MISI 1. Memperlancar arus barang secara efektif dan efisien untuk menjamin pemenuhan kebutuhan dasar masyarakat dan peningkatan daya saing produk nasional di pasar domestik, regional, dan global. 2. Membangun simpul simpul logistik nasional dan konektivitasnya mulai dari pedesaan, perkotaan, antar wilayah dan antar pulau sampai dengan Pelabuhan Hub Internasional melalui kolaborasi antar pemangku kepentingan. TUJUAN Memperlancar arus barang secara efektif dan efisien 1. Menurunkan biaya logistik, memperlancar arus barang dan meningkatkan pelayanan logistik sehingga meningkatkan daya saing produk nasional di pasar global dan pasar domestik. 2. Menjamin ketersediaan komoditas pokok dan strategis di seluruh wilayah Indonesia dengan harga yang terjangkau sehingga mendorong pencapaian masyarakat adil dan makmur, dan memperkokoh kedaulatan dan keutuhan NKRI; 3. Mempersiapkan diri untuk mencapai target integrasi logistik ASEAN pada tahun 2013, integrasi pasar ASEAN pada tahun 2015, dan integrasi pasar global pada tahun 2020 Cetak Biru Sistem Logistik Nasional
16
Slide 7
KEMENTERIAN KOORDINATOR BIDANG PEREKONOMIAN
1.
VISI, MISI DAN TUJUAN SISLOGNAS
12 Sektor Prioritas Integrasi ASEAN
Slide 10
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
Azas Cabotage (UU.17/2018)
Azas Cabotage (UU.17/2018)
11
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
SIX KEY DRIVERS OF NATIONAL LOGISTICS SYSTEM 1. 2. 3.
Big Wins Sislognas (Tahap I - 2011 - 2015) No.
Paradigm : Ship Follows the Trade & Ship Promotes the Trade Using Six Key Drivers Based on Supply Chain Management
Komoditi
Daya Saing
Infrastruktur Transportasi
Pelaku dan Penyedia Jasa Logistik
Indonesia Logistics Vision 2025
Mgt Sumber Daya Manusia Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi
Kesejahteraan
Regulasi & Kebijakan
Rencana Aksi Big Wins
No.
Rencana Aksi Big Wins
10
Penguatan Penyedia Jasa Logistik Nasional sebagai pemain kelas dunia.
11
Revitalisasi BUMN Niaga menjadi Trading House komoditas pokok dan strategis serta unggulan ekspor.
Short Sea Shipping Pantai Utara Jawa dan Jalintim Sumatera
12
Peningkatan peran BUMN dalam logistik pedesaan.
4
Peningkatan Peran Kargo Kereta Api di Jawa dan Sumatera.
13
5
Sistem Otomasi informasi logistik INALOG
Terselenggaranya sistem pendidikan dan pelatihan profesi logistik nasional yang berstandar internasional.
6
Peningkatan kapasitas Kapal Perintis dan Nasional di Kawasan Timur Indonesia
14
Terwujudnya Pusat Distribusi Regional Komoditas Pokok dan Strategis pada tiap Koridor Ekonomi.
7
Pemberdayaan Pelayaran Nasional dan Pelayaran Rakyat.
15
Harmonisasi regulasi dan kebijakan untuk mendorong efisiensi kegiatan ekspor/impor.
8
Consolidated Container bagi eksportir UKM.
16
9
Pelayanan 24/7 kargo udara di Soeta Intl Airport.
Penetapan tarif pelayanan jasa logistik dalam denominasi Rupiah.
17
Efektifnya pengoperasian Dry Port.
1
Pelabuhan Hub Laut Internasional Kuala Tanjung dan Bitung; Bandara Hub Internasional Jakarta, Kuala Namu dan Makasar.
2
Pelabuhan Kali Baru, Jakarta
3
13
Cetak Biru Sistem Logistik Nasional
Milestone Kinerja Logistik Nasional sampai 2025 KEMENTERIAN KOORDINATOR BIDANG PEREKONOMIAN
PROGRAM PRIORITAS IMPLEMENTASI SISLOGNAS KE DEPAN
1. PEMBANGUNAN PELABUHAN INTERNASIONAL MASA DEPAN Perpres Nomor 32 Tahun 2011 tentang (MP3EI) dan Perpres Nomor 26 Tahun 2012 tentang Cetak Biru Pengembangan SISLOGNAS menetapkan Pelabuhan Kuala Tanjung dan Bitung Sebagai Pelabuhan Hub Internasional;
PELABUHAN KUALA TANJUNG PELABUHAN BITUNG
KETIMPANGAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI Perubahan iklim, pergeseran demografis global, posisi geografis dan geoekologis membentuk leverage ekonomi Indonesia di pasar dunia. Menjadi faktor penting dalam menentukan arah pengembangan ekonomi Indonesia ke masa depan.
Penyebaran/Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi adalah keniscayaan/ keharusan untuk peningkatan daya saing dan daya tahan perekonomian membutuhkan perbaikan konektivitas/sistem logistik nasional yang handal
Integritas kedaulatan NKRI, kedaulatan pangan, kedaulatan energi, kedaulatan ekologi sangat ditentukan oleh strategi gateways dan perwujudan dua hub internasional ini. Mempertahankan lalu lintas perdagangan internasional langsung ke “kamar tidur” mendegradasi daya saing industri dan perekonomian nasional 17
PELABUHAN BITUNG KE BEBERAPA NEGARA DI ASIA DAN PASIFIK
Pelabuhan Kuala Tanjung turut ambil bagian di Selat Malaka
Beijing 2,870.87 mil
Prediksi Volume Peti Kemas (juta TEUs)
Pelabuhan Singapore Malaysia (Port Kelang) Malaysia (Tanjung Pelepas) Indonesia (Tanjung Priok) Indonesia (Makassar)
2011 2012 29,94 31,65
2013 2020 33,46 49,36
2030 Kapasitas 86,01 28,4
9,6
10
10,42
13,86
20,85
8,8
7,5
7,7
7,91
9,50
12,37
6,5
6,1
6,62
11,75
26,67
0,543
0,6
0,66
1,33
3,62
3,144.28 mil
LAUT PASIFIK
8,147.80 mil
Manila Ho Chi Minh Bangkok
5,62
San Fransisco
Tokyo
Seoul 2,870.87 mil
1,230.37 mil
1,503.79 mil
2,187.33 mil
Singapore 1,722.52 mil
Bintulu
Manado Bitung
1,093.66 mil
Port Moresby 1,913.91 mil
0,7
Darwin 1,093.66 mil
Bappeda Bitung 2013
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL 2. SHORT SEA SHIPPING SEBAGAI BACKBONE TRANSPORTASI LOGISTIK NASIONAL
Maersk Line: Direct Access from Bitung to World Markets (No Java Transhipments)
Konektivitas:
Legend:
By sea / by rail
Pusat Distribusi Provinsi
By sea / by rail / by land
By land / by rail / by sea
Pusat Distribusi Nasional Short Sea Shipping
Pelabuhan Hub Internasional di Kuala Tanjung untuk Wilayah Indonesia Barat dan Bitung Untuk Wilayah Indonesia Timur Short Sea Shipping sebagai backbone dari Transportasi Barang Nasional
TEROBOSAN BERBASIS MARITIM
DUKUNGAN PENGOPERASIAN SHORT SEA SHIPPING (SSS)
USULAN RUTE COASTAL SHIPPING BAGI PANTURA
BLW-KTG
No
DUKUNGAN
KETERANGAN
1
Penerbitan peraturan yang diperlukan
• Payung hukum pengoperasian Coastal (Keputusan Menteri Perhubungan).
Membangun modalitas short sea shipping intra dan inter koridor
2
Infrastruktur Pelabuhan Singgah
• Fasilitas dermaga yang dibutuhkan untuk dermaga pelabuhan singgah sesuai dengan spesifikasi kapal Ro-Ro.
Less energi, less emission, less incident, less cost, more volume
3
Pengalokasian anggaran untuk infrastruktur pelabuhan singgah dan jalan aksesnya maupun program terkait yang diperlukan
JKT EAST
CRBN
KENDAL
LMG-SBY
MDR
4
BKHMRK
PJG
SKBM
Komponen
Infrastruktur
Kebijakan
Jenis
22
Contoh
Pokok & Strategis
Sembako
Beban Berat
Semen, Baja, Pupuk, Coal
Frequent
Kend. Bermotor
Kontainer
20 feet, dan 40 feet
Kapal
Ro-Ro Min 4500 DWT
Pelabuhan
Dedicated Berth – bukan di pelabuhan utama, mis: Marunda – Kendal-Paciran/Lamongan
Akses Intermoda
Intermodal Transfer Point (Road, Rail, Port, WH)
Insentif
• • • •
Rute dan Tarif
Penghapusan Subsidi BBM, atau Subsidi yang sama dengan Truck Penghapusan Bea Masuk Bagi Kapal Impor. Tax holiday selama 5 tahun Pembebasan bea masuk Truck max 3500 CC untuk peremajaan angkutan
• Pengaturan Rute, Tarif, dan Lisensi • Promotion freight < Truck; • Adanya ada perbandingan cost yang ril antara angkutan laut dan angkutan darat.
6. PENGEMBANGAN SISTEM LOGISTIK PANGAN Daya Saing produk pangan Indonesia di dalam negeri dan di luar negeri ? Syarat penting Kedaulatan, Kemandirian, Ketahanan, dan Kemanan Pangan
PROGRAM :
PENGUATAN KERJASAMA ANTAR DAERAH; PENGEMBANGAN SISTEM LOGISTIK PANGAN BERBASIS TRANSPORTASI KERETA API DI JAWA PENDAYAGUNAAN KAPAL PELNI UNTUK SHORT-SEA SHIPPING PENGEMBANGAN KONTINER KHUSUS PANGAN (FOOD TRANSPORTER): Cattle vessel untuk angkutan sapi (ternak); Pengembangan kontainer khusus (7 feet) untuk angkutan barang antar pulau-pulau kecil. PENINGKATAN PERAN PT POS INDONESIA MENANGANI DAN MENGEMBANGKAN JARINGAN LOGISTIK RURAL (RURAL LOGISTICS NETWORK) DISELURUH WILAYAH KABUPATEN/KOTA
Penertiban angkutan barang truk yang melebihi beban
• Dibutuhkan dukungan Kementerian Perhubungan, Pemda dan POLRI dalam rangka menertibkan angkutan barang truk yang melebihi beban jalan sesuai ketentuan peraturan.
CLCP
Dukungan Kebjiakan implementasi Short Sea Shipping (1) Komoditas
• Anggaraan untuk infrastruktur pelabuhan singgah masuk dalam perencanaan Kementerian Perhubungan • Anggaran pembangunan jalan akses masuk ke dalam perencanaan Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum. • Pada Rapat Koordinasi MP3EI di Manado tanggal 3 Mei 2013 Menteri Pekerjaan Umum menyampaikan dukungannya untuk pengoperasian Coastal Shipping dalam rangka mengurangi beban jalan di Pantura Jawa.
CLMY JKT WEST
Shipping
Dukungan Kebijakan implementasi Short Sea Shipping (2) Komponen Kebijakan
Jenis
Contoh
Regulasi
• Singkronisasi peraturan: ada perbedaan peraturaan antara penyebrangan dan angkutan laut; • Singkrosnisasi aspek teknis, hukum, dan komersial • Penegakan Hukum untuk muatan truk berlebih; • Truk > 40 Feet tidak memasuki jalur Pantura, sehingga berpindah ke Ro-Ro, (setelah Kapal dan infrastrukturnya telah disiapkan)
Pelaku/Operator
• BUMN dan Swasta • Perlakuan yang sama kepada perusahaan BUMN dan Swasta, melalui manajemen persaingan;
Uji Coba
• Pantura Jawa, Jalur Lintas Timur Sumatera
Campaign
• Menarik pengusaha jasa logistik untuk menggunakan jasa transportasi laut. • Sinergi antara angkutan SSS dengan persh truk, dlm aspek terminal, rute, biaya, sehingga perusahan truk tertarik menggunakan SSS
Tim SSS
• Perlu dibentuk Tim Implementasi SSS yang memformulasikan (1) Bisnis Proses, (2) Aspek Biaya, (3) Aspek Regulasi
PENGEMBANGAN SISTEM LOGISTIK PANGAN BERBASIS TRANSPORTASI KERETA API DI JAWA
Mempercepat angkutan kereta api sebagai moda utama angkutan pangan di darat dan dengan dioperasikannya jalur ganda. Pembangunan fasilitas pendukung Kereta Api Stasiun kontainer, pergudangan, terminal multi moda, perakitan dan pengepakan, klaster industri, dan pasarkomoditas. Peningkatan swasta dalam investasi angkutan kereta
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
PERBANDINGAN ANGKUTAN BARANG ANTARA MODA JALAN DENGAN KERETA API
Ilustrasi Perbandingan Moda KA vs Moda Truck dengan Adanya Double Tracking Lintas Utara Jawa (Surabaya – Jakarta) – KA Barang
Contoh: Matriks Pelayanan Peti Kemas 40” Jakarta Surabaya antara Moda Jalan dan Moda Kereta Api
Jarak OD rata-rata 700 km, target angkutan 25.740.120 ton/tahun mulai tahun 2015
No
Uraian
Moda Jalan (per TEUs)
Sumber: Bahan Paparan Direktur Lalu Lintas Kereta Api *) Harga keekonomian BBM = Rp 9.000/liter (harga BBM industri) **) Banverket, Network Statement 2010, 12-12-2008 ***) Victoria Transport Policy Institute - Canada (www.vtpi) tahun 1996 : SEK (Swedia Krona)
2.
Tarif Angkutan Peti Kemas Jakarta – Surabaya
2
Door to door
√
3
Perlu Angkutan Feeder
--
√
4
Waktu Tempuh
3 hari
18 jam
5
Berdampak Kemacetan
√
--
6
Berdampak Kerusakan Jalan
√
--
7
Hemat Energi
--
√
8
Keselamatan Jalan
√
√
Rp 1.704.519 --
4. PENGEMBANGAN FLOATING TERMINAL Floating Container Port
Strategy: 1. Merevitalisasi fungsi GB menjadi pusat distribusi logistik nasional 2. Menciptakan beberapa tempat/wilayah sebagai pusat pemasukan barang/distribusi nasional (wilayah barat, tengah dan timur)
Jumlah 260 besar dan kecil
1.
1
Sumber: Bahan Paparan Direktur Lalu Lintas Kereta Api
3. PENGEMBANGAN BONDED WAREHOUSE MENJADI LOGISTICS CENTER GUDANG BERIKAT (GB)
Rp 3.200.000
Kereta Api (per ton)
LNG Floating Terminal
Untuk mendukung penyediaan dan distribusi bahan bakar di Laut
Tujuan: Mempercepat distribusi barang di wilayah Indonesia bagian barat, tengah dan timur Mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap Singapore/malaysia yang selama ini sebagai pusat distribusi logistik regional
Floating Shelter
LOGISTICS CENTER
Ps 7 (3) :GB diubah peruntukannya menjadi pusat logistik (inventori). Pengelola/Pemilik pusat logistik, tidak berkewajiban melunasi BM dan Pajak dalam rangka impor, tetapi menjadi kewajiban importir untuk melunasi BM dan Pajaknya dari hasil pembelian di pusat logistik. Ps. 11 : Fungsi GB, tidak hanya utk barang2 keperluan industri di Kawasan Berikat dan/atau industri Tempat Lain Daerah Pabean (TLDDP) yang akan dimasukkan ke Toko Bebas Bea, atau diekspor kembali, tetapi juga untuk kebutuhan industri di dalam negeri di luar TLDDP, maupun konsumen lainnya.
Revisi PP No.32 /2009 tentang Tempat Penimbunan Berikat
MANFAAT FLOATING TERMINAL
5. PEMBANGUNAN TERMINAL BARANG (DRYPORT) DI DAERAH PERBATASAN
Kapal besar curah atau tongkang yang beroperasi di laut lepas sering terhalang memasuki pelabuhan karena masalah kedalaman kolam dan kurangnya memadainya fasilitas bongkar muat. Untuk mengatasi masalah ini, bongkar muat kapal ocean going, dapat dipindahkan dari pelabuhan ke shelter yang lebih dalam dengan menggunakan kapal transfer, terminal transfer atau tongkang untuk operasi transloading.
MANFAAT: • menghindari investasi baru di pelabuhan dalam fasilitas bongkar • mengatasi masalah kedalam kolam draft • dapat mengakomodasi kapal yang besar; • dapat direlokasi • mengurangi polusi di pelabuhan dan lingkungan • operasi-ramah lingkungan
MODEL BISNIS DRY PORT/TERMINAL BARANG
7. PENINGKATAN HUMAN CAPITAL SEKTOR LOGISTIK
Trading Point di Wilayah Perbatasan – Sebagai Pusat Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia
Land Border
Malaysia / PNG Ekspor/Impor
Kota
SUSUN DAN TETAPKAN STANDAR KOMPETENSI KERJA NASIONAL INDONESIA (SKKNI) BIDANG LOGISTIK
Sea Port
INDES LINES Trans
Trade Exhibition Center
Barang Konsumsi Logistics Center (Consolidation /distribustion)
Barang Industri
On Going Project : Pembangunan Terminal Barang di Entikong Kalimantan Barat
Dry Port
KEMBANGKAN PENDIDIKAN VOCATIONAL DAN LOGISTICS COMMUNITY COLLEGE (AKADEMI KOMUNITAS LOGISTIK, D1-D2)
Ekspor/Impor
Customs & Quarantine Kawasan Imigration Industri
Border Check Point Ekspor/Impor
Kawasan Industri
KEMBANGKAN PROGRAM STUDI LOGISTIK DI PERGURUAN TINGGI TINGKATKAN TRAINING LOGISTIK DAN SCM OLEH LEMBAGA TRAINING ASOSIASI TERKAIT
KEMBANGKAN LEMBAGA SERTIFIKASI PROFESI (LSP) LOGISTIK; Dry Port/Terminal Barang dibangun dengan maksud untuk memberikan fasilitasi perdagangan (trading point) agar manfaat ekonomi lebih banyak diperoleh oleh pelaku usaha nasional, serta mendorong wilayah tsb menjadi Pusat Pertumbuhan Ekonomi.
SINERGI DAN KOLABORASI PEMERINTAH-AKADEMISI-PENGUSAHAASOSIASI UNTUK KEMBANGKAN PROGRAM VOCATIONAL DAN PELATIHAN SERTIFIKASI PROFESI LOGISTIK
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
PENERAPAN SKKNI, KEMAMPUAN TELUSUR DAN EKIVALENSI DENGAN SISTEM DIKLAT, SERTIFIKASI DAN SOP INDUSTRI PENERAPAN PADA ORGANISASI/INDUST RI
SERTIFIKASI
PENDIDIKAN VOKASI DAN PELATIHAN KERJA
Judul SOP
Judul Unit
Judul Learning material
Skema sertifikasi unit kompetensi
Ruang lingkup SOP
Deskripsi unit
Ruang lingkup diklat
Ruang lingkup asesmen
Langkah-langkah proses
Elemen
Pencapaian hasil pembelajaran (LO)
Elemen asesmen
Instruksi kerja
KUK
Kriteria evaluasi belajar
Kriteria pencapaian Kompetensi
Spesifikasi sesuai dengan konteks
Batasan Veriabel
Kontektualisasi diklat
Kontektualisas asesmen dan spesifikasi
QA
Panduan Penialaian
evaluasi
Penduan asesmen
PEMBANGUNAN TOL LAUT Presiden Terpilih Jokowi menyampaikan : "Restorasi Maritim" pada Seminar Nasional Bidang Kelautan dan Launching Hari Nusantara 2014 memperingati Hari Kelautan Sedunia, di Gedung Merdeka, Kota Bandung, 11 Juni 2014.
KEMENTERIAN KOORDINATOR BIDANG PEREKONOMIAN
KONSEP TOL LAUT
Tol laut bukan membuat jalan tol di atas laut.
Tol laut merupakan jalur distribusi logistik menggunakan kapal laut dari ujung pulau Sumatera hingga ujung Papua..
Tol laut bisa menjadi solusi pemerataan pembangunan di seluruh Indonesia. Harga-harga barang serta kebutuhan sehari-hari bisa sama rata atau paling tidak kenaikannya tidak terlalu besar. Pak Jokowi memberikan contoh harga semen di Pulau Jawa hanya Rp 50.000 per zak, sementara di Papua bisa Rp 1 juta per zak. Dengan sistem tol laut ini, harganya bisa sama. Paling banter di Papua hanya Rp 60.000.”
Konsep Tol Laut pada dasarnya adalah penyelenggaraan angkutan laut secara tetap dan teratur (Liner) yang menghubungkan pelabuhan-pelabuhan dari Sumatera (Belawan) hingga ke Timur, dengan menggunakan kapal-kapal berukuran besar sehingga diperoleh manfaat ekonomisnya (harga per satuan barang menjadi lebih rendah)
KONSEP SISTEM PEMBANGUNAN TOL LAUT
19 38
KONSEP RUTE LAYANAN TOL LAUT TAHAP AWAL
Pengembangan Prasarana Pelabuhan Pengembangan Prasarana dan Sarana Multimoda
Peningkatan SDM
Peningkatan Sarana Angkutan Laut
TOL LAUT
Pembenahan Sistem Manajemen
Merupakan program reformasi angkutan laut yang bersifat komprehensif dan terintegrasi, yang meliputi 5 komponen utama yaitu pengembangan prasarana dan sarana multimoda, prasarana pelabuhan dan pendukungnya, sarana kapal, sistem manajemen dan pengembangan SDM 40
23 39
Potensi Koridor Utama Pelayaran Domestik
Belawan – Batam - Tj.Priok - Tj.Perak - Banjarmasin – Makassar Bitung – Sorong – Makassar - Banjarmasin- Tj.Perak - Tj.Priok – Batam Belawan
Potensi Koridor Utama Pelayaran Domestik
Belawan - Tj.Priok - Tj.Perak - Makassar – Bitung - Sorong – Makassar - Tj.Perak - Tj.Priok - Belawan
Total Jarak 5,541 Nm
Total Jarak 5,778 Nm
Ruas Trayek 8 Ruas
Ruas Trayek 13 Ruas
Potensi Muatan 1,457,56 Teus
Potensi Muatan 1,712,635 Teus
Sumber: Hasan Iqbal Nur, 2014 Jurusan Transportasi Laut-ITS
Sumber: Hasan Iqbal Nur, 2014 Jurusan Transportasi Laut-ITS Jakarta, 16 Oktober 2014 - Ir. Tri Achmadi, Ph.D.. -
21
41
Jakarta, 16 Oktober 2014 - Ir. Tri Achmadi, Ph.D.. -
42
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
Henry Sandee Logistics Performance: ASEAN Countries under Scrutiny
What is the Logistics Performance Index (LPI)?
Logistics Performance: ASEAN Countries under Scrutiny October 2014
The World Bank World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
April 1, 2014 1
The Logistics Performance Index
4
Published every 2 years (since 2007)
Coverage: 160 countries in LPI 2014
3
Key messages from the LPI 2014
Partnerships
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
Built on >5,000 country assessments by > 1,000 logistics professionals Respondents rate logistics performance indicators on a scale of 1 to 5
Key message for low-income countries: Progress in logistics performance is driven by improvement in infrastructure and basic border management reforms. Key message for middle-income countries: Focus moves from infrastructure and border management to logistics services with growing demand for outsourced logistics. Key message for high-income countries: Demand for “green” logistics services is growing in advanced economies. The “low hanging fruit” have largely been reaped. The new generation of reforms is complex, involves many stakeholders, and takes time.
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
5
LPI 2014 overall scores: Performance converging around the world
The 6 LPI indicators of the supply chain
Border agencies Infrastructure Service quality of freight forwarders
Results
Timeliness of delivery Ease of arranging shipments Tracking and tracing THE LPI MEASURES A SCORE AND A RANKING
6
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
7
21
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
ASEAN LPI 2010 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2014 (RANKING)
Results for ASEAN countries (SCORE) ASEAN LPI Scores and Ranks 2014 5.0 4.5 4.0
High Income Country Upper-Middle Income Countries
Lower-Middle Income Countries
3.5
Low Income Countries
3.0 2.5 2.0
1.5 1.0
0.5 0.0
Singapore [5]
Malaysia [25]
Thailand [35]
Vietnam [48]
Philippines [57]
Cambodia [83]
Laos [131]
Myanmar [145]
Indonesia [53]
8
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
9
ASEAN Countries Performance 2010 vs. 2014 Change in Rank 2010 vs. 2014 50
46
40
Indonesia is one of the few countries in ASEAN that has made steady improvement in its logistics performance since 2010
30
22 20
However, it absolute score remains lower than in many ASEAN neighbors
10
HEVETS AB
0
-13
-13
-12
-3
0
PH
LA
MM
SG
TH
4
5
MY
VN
ID
KH
-10
ASEAN Top & Bottom Performers (Score): 2010 vs. 2014 2 Top performers in category 2 Bottom performers in category
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
-20
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
10
KH
ID
LA
MY
MM
PH
SG
TH
Overall
+++
+++
-
++
-
--
-
++
++
Border agencies
+++
+++
++
++
+
+++
-
++
++
Infrastructure
+++
+++
++
+
++
+
+
++
++++
International shipments
++++
+
--
++
--
-
--
+
++
Logistics quality & competence
+++
++++
++
++
+
-
--
++
++
0.50
Tracking and tracing +++
+++
--
++
0
--
--
+
+
0.30
-
+
----
+
---
----
+
++
+
+11.8
+10.2
-2.5
+4.6
-2.7
-4.6
-3
+4.2
+5.9
Timeliness
% of Best performer
VN
12
Logistics Performance: Border Agencies Score
Change in Infrastructure 2010 vs. 2014 Score 0.80
0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10
PH
MY
SG
MM
TH
LA
-0.20 Change in Infrastructure Score
ID
KH
VN
Change in Border Agencies 2010 vs. 2014
0.80
0.70 0.60
0.40
0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10
-0.20
Logistics Performance: Infrastructure
11
SG
MM
VN
TH
MY
LA
PH
KH
ID
Change in Border Agencies Score World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
13
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
Logistics Performance: International Shipments
Logistics Performance: Logistics Quality & Competence
Change in International Shipments 2010 vs. 2014
Logistics Quality and Competence 2010 vs. 2014
Score
Score
0.80
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.20 0.20
0.00
MM
LA
SG
PH
TH
ID
MY
VN
KH 0.00
-0.20
SG
MM
MY
TH
LA
VN
KH
ID
-0.20
-0.40
Change in Logistics Quality and Competence Score
Change in International shipments Score World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
15
Tracking and Tracing 2010 vs. 2014
Score
16
Logistics Performance: Timeliness
Logistics Performance: Tracking and Tracing
Timeliness 2010 vs. 2014
Score 0.40
0.80
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.40
PH
LA
SG
MM
TH
VN
MY
ID
KH
-0.20
0.20 0.00
PH
-0.40 PH
LA
SG
MM
TH
VN
MY
ID
KH -0.60
-0.20
-0.80
-0.40
Change in Tracking and Tracing Score
Change in Tracking and Tracing Score World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
Key Messages
18
How can the LPI contribute to policy?
Indonesia has achieved considerable improvements in score for many indicators
Improvements in the public and private sector
The LPI
• Is an overall indicator of supply chain efficiency. • Provides information of where a country stands and a broad indication of problem areas. • It points out the weakest links in the supply chain.
Indonesia is catching up but there remains a gap with countries like Malaysia and Thailand World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
17
19
The LPI has had a significant impact in raising awareness and pushing for comprehensive “connectivity” and logistics policies, e.g. in Kazakhstan, APEC and Indonesia. World Bank LPI, Transport Business Summit 2014, Brussels
20
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
LPI data and report at: lpi.worldbank.org
ANNEX
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
21
Logistics Performance: Singapore Overall
Rank
Score
Logistics Performance: Malaysia Overall
Singapore LPI 2010, 2012, 2014
2010
2
4.09
1.00
2012
1
4.13
0.96
2014
5
4.00
0.98 0.94 0.92
90%
0.84
80%
0.80
0.82 Customs
Infrastructure
70% 60%
International shipments
Trading across Borders
Logist. quality & compet.
Tracking and tracing
2014 2012 2010 Timeliness
2012
29
3.49
2014
25
3.59
Documents to export (number)
5
3
-40%
40%
Time to export (days)
6
6
0%
30%
Cost to export (US$ per container)
382
460
20%
Documents to import (number)
6
3
3 333
Time to import (days) Cost to import (US$ per container)
Score
35
3.29
2012
38
3.18
2014
35
3.43
% of best performer
%Δ
0.50
-33%
20
11
-45%
+20%
30%
Cost to export (US$ per container)
481
450
+6%
-50%
20%
Documents to import (number)
12
4
-67%
4
+33%
10%
Time to import (days)
22
8
-64%
440
+32%
Cost to import (US$ per container)
428
485
+13%
0%
40% 30%
2012
2014
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
Rank
Score
2010
44
3.14
2012
52
3.02
0.95
2014
57
3.00
0.85
0.80
% of best performer
2014 2012 2010 Customs
Infrastructure International Logist. quality Tracking and shipments & compet. tracing
24
2014
9
5
%Δ -44%
Time to export (days)
24
14
-42%
0.80
0.65
2014 2012 2010
0.60 0.55
80%
0.50
70% 60%
2007
0.90
0.70
90%
Timeliness
Documents to export (number)
Philippines LPI 2010, 2012, 2014 1.00
0.75
100%
Trading across Borders
50%
Customs
Infrastructure International Logist. quality Tracking and shipments & compet. tracing
Trading across Borders
Timeliness
2007
2014
Documents to export (number)
6
6
0%
40%
Time to export (days)
18
15
-17%
30%
Cost to export (US$ per container)
-56%
50%
%Δ
Cost to export (US$ per container)
848
595
-30%
1336
585
20%
Documents to import (number)
12
5
-58%
20%
Documents to import (number)
7
7
0%
10%
Time to import (days)
22
13
-41%
10%
Time to import (days)
20
14
-30%
1042
760
-27%
0%
1336
660
-51%
0%
2010
2012
2014
Cost to import (US$ per container)
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
24
Overall
0.55
60%
2010
%Δ
Logistics Performance: Philippines
0.85
0.50
Trading across Borders
50%
23
0.60
70%
Infrastructure International Logist. quality Tracking and Timeliness shipments & compet. tracing
Time to export (days)
0.75
80%
2010 Customs
40%
0.90
0.65
2012
0.55
4
0.95
90%
2014
0.60
80%
2014
Thailand LPI 2010, 2012, 2014
0.70
0.65
6
1.00
100%
0.80
2007
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
Rank
0.85
Documents to export (number)
2014
2010
0.90
0.70
90%
Logistics Performance: Thailand Overall
0.95
0.75
60%
2014
10%
Malaysia LPI 2010, 2012, 2014 1.00
70%
2007
50%
2012
3.44
100%
0.86
2010
Score
29
% of best performer
0.88
100%
0%
Rank
2010
0.90
% of best performer
22
Cost to import (US$ per container) 2010
25
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
2012
2014
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
26
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
Logistics Performance: Indonesia Overall
Rank
Score
2010
75
2.76
2012
59
2.94
2014
53
3.08
Logistics Performance: Vietnam
Indonesia LPI 2010, 2012, 2014
Overall
1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85
0.80
Rank
Score
2010
53
2.96
2012
53
3.00
0.95
2014
48
3.15
0.85
0.75
% of best performer
2014 2012 2010
0.60 0.55
80%
0.50
70% 60%
Customs
Infrastructure International Logist. quality Tracking and shipments & compet. tracing
Trading across Borders
Timeliness
4
-43%
50%
40%
Time to export (days)
25
17
-32%
30%
Cost to export (US$ per container)
546
615
20%
Documents to import (number)
10
Time to import (days)
30
Cost to import (US$ per container)
675
660
2010
2012
0.55 0.50
60%
2014
%Δ
Score
129
2.37
0.80
2012
101
2.56
0.70
2014
83
2.74
2014
6
5
40%
Time to export (days)
35
21
-40%
+13%
30%
Cost to export (US$ per container)
701
610
-13%
8
-20%
20%
Documents to import (number)
9
8
-11%
23
-23%
10%
Time to import (days)
36
21
-42%
Cost to import (US$ per container)
887
600
-32%
-2%
0%
2010
27
Overall
Cambodia LPI 2010, 2012, 2014 0.75 0.65 0.60
2014 2012 2010
0.40 0.35
80%
0.30
70% 60%
Customs
Infrastructure
International Logist. quality Tracking and shipments & compet. tracing
Trading across Borders
Timeliness
109
2.50
0.70
2014
131
2.39
-25%
20%
Documents to import (number)
16
10
-38%
10%
Time to import (days)
78
26
-67%
+14%
0%
1690
1910
+13%
Cost to import (US$ per container)
816
930
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
%Δ
29
Logistics Performance: Myanmar
% of best performer
Myanmar LPI 2010, 2012, 2014 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45
90%
2014
0.40 80%
2012
0.35 0.30
70% 60%
2010 Customs
Infrastructure
International Logist. quality Tracking and shipments & compet. tracing
Trading across Borders
Timeliness
2007
2014
Documents to export (number)
-
9
-
40%
Time to export (days)
-
25
-
30%
Cost to export (US$ per container)
-
670
-
20%
Documents to import (number)
-
9
-
10%
Time to import (days)
-
27
-
Cost to import (US$ per container)
-
660
50%
2014
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
%Δ
31
Trading across Borders
Timeliness
-47%
2014
100%
International Logist. quality Tracking and shipments & compet. tracing
9
45
2.25
Infrastructure
24
12
145
Customs
-65%
Time to import (days)
2014
0.30
70%
+37%
Documents to import (number)
2.37
0.35
1950
20%
129
2014 2012 2010
0.40
1420
795
2012
0.45
80%
Cost to export (US$ per container)
736
2.33
0.50
90%
30%
Cost to export (US$ per container)
Score
0.55
+8%
30%
133
0.60
23
-39%
Rank
0.65
66
22
2010
0.75
Time to export (days)
36
2012
2012
Lao PDR LPI 2010, 2012, 2014
40%
Time to export (days)
2010
0.80
10
40%
0%
2.46
2014
0%
Overall
Score
118
12
8
2012
28
2007
2014
8
2010
-17%
Documents to export (number)
2007
Documents to export (number)
0%
Rank
2010
60%
50%
10%
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
100%
0.45
90%
2014
% of best performer
0.50
100%
2012
%Δ
Logistics Performance: Lao PDR
0.55
% of best performer
Timeliness
2007
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
Rank
Infrastructure International Logist. quality Tracking and shipments & compet. tracing
Documents to export (number)
2014
2010
Customs
Trading across Borders
Logistics Performance: Cambodia Overall
2014 2012 2010
0.60
70%
7
0%
0.65
80%
2007
10%
0.70
90%
Documents to export (number)
50%
0.75
100%
0.65
90%
0.90 0.80
% of best performer
0.70
100%
Vietnam LPI 2010, 2012, 2014 1.00
50%
Cost to import (US$ per container) 2010
2012
2014
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
%Δ -17%
30
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
Adhitya Sari Cold Chain Indonesia Cold Chain in Indonesia: Challenges and Opportunity
It takes fries 70 days from farm to your plate
Adithya Sari Country GM, HAVI Indonesia
â&#x20AC;Ś and 40 days for beef patties
through multiple mode, places and handlingâ&#x20AC;Ś
Cost of Non Compliance
Low
Temperature Slow
Metabolic Process
Extend
Shelf Life Less
Chemicals
Salt
food wasted
1.3
billion tons p.a
globally
in developing country, loss mostly in early/mid stage of supply chain
26
Cold chain is challenging
Archipelago in equator
Transport network
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
high
humidity Power grid
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
MAIN TOPIC
Congested port..
Another definition of cold chain..
Poor maintenance..
Monitoring equipment..
Extra care and precautions..
Inadequate port and ship infrastructure
Inadequate port and ship infrastructure
Initiative to maintain compliance
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
27
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
Indonesia
Modern market continue to grow
Economic Growth of 5.5%
Diet pattern change with less grain and more dairy and meat
Middle class and affluent customers doubles in 2020 and more dispersed
Urbanization and emergence of middle class increase demand of modern retail due to convenience and food safety awareness.
More driven to spend
Hypermarket and minimarket grows faster than supermarket
As well as restaurants…
Other large and mid-sized cities grow faster than Jakarta…
Stable economy led to rising disposable incomes and eating-out culture among younger demographics and middle- class segments Market is dominated by individual Asian restaurant, growth expected at 3% Highest growth in fast food restaurant with CAGR of 6.3%
Food processing are centralized in Java
Opportunities at key ports and routes
Food processing are centralized in Java
to focus on
developing
its business
more
food retail restaurant producers distributors operators
outsource its cold chain Public Sector
Private Sector
Transportation network (roads, ports, train system)
Cold storage, trucks, ship, containers
Energy grid Public awareness
Freezer at retail stores and restaurants Cold chain and quality management
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
Thomas Darmawan Sistem Logistic Ikan Nasional GLOBAL FOOD DEMAND
SISTEM LOGISTIK IKAN NASIONAL IN INDONESIAN
Thomas Darmawan Chairman of AP5I / Chief of Fisheries APINDO Chairman of Food & Beverages Industries KADIN Indonesia.
Presentation for Seminar Indonesia Transport Supply Chain and Logistic & Intralogistic Indonesia 2014 (ITSCL & ILI 2014). JIEXPO, Kemayoran, Jakarta, 15-16 October 2014
From 7 billion world population, 1,1 billion people income less than US$1/day, malnutrition, hunger. Consume only fiber, carbohydrate & dried fish. 2,7 billion people <US$2/day. Consume only fiber, carbohydrate, plant protein&canned fish/salted/dried If their income more than US$2/day, malnutrition & hunger can be improved. Consume: carbohydrate, fiber, plant protein, eggs, fresh fish/canned/dried. If the income >US$ 5–10/hr, consumption more on meat, milk, fresh fish, processed/shrimp, fruit/veg. Food requirement’s more variety & increased Income more >US$ 10/hari, more food with animal protein & fishery product that already processed, packed with more value added such: sushi, sashimi, fillet, steak, tempura, nugget & eat at resto/hotel. Industry ready to fulfill the food neccessity for poor and medium class with safe and affordable food.
World fish consumption per capita & per year
MARKET ACCES EASIER TO THE HIGH CONSUMPTION COUNTRIES
POPULATION & FOOD SECURITY IN ASEAN+6 (RCEP)
1,354 M
1,258 M
127 M
50 M
27 M
5M •N.Z.
0.4 M
247 M
96 M
70 M
89 M
source: FAO - Cai (2011)
5
29 M 49 M
6M
5,2 M
14 M
ASEAN = 600 million; ASEAN+6 = 3.400 million
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
29
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
Indonesia Fisheries
PERFORMANCE 2010-2012 & TARGET 2013-2014
More than 17,500 islands along the equator (12 months
INDONESIA FISH EXPORT TOTAL SHRIMP US $ mil US $ mil
1 2008 2 3 4
2.699 2009 2.466 2010 2.863 2011 3.521
5 2012 6 2013
FISH
US $ mil
1.165 734 1.007 723 1.056 898 1.309 1.100
3.854 1.304 4.181 1.614
965 857
Tuna Crab Others US $ mil US $ mil US $ mil
347 352 383 498
214 156 208 262
238 225 317 349
749
329
505
764
359
587
Sources : DJ P2HP - 2014 & BPS
CHALLENGES OF ASEAN – China FTA
Singapura, Malaysia, Thailand, Filipina & China had prepared their HRD, SME,s & Industries for ASEAN-China FTA. Bank Interest rates in ASEAN lower than in Indonesia Distribution cost of good in Indonesia on main road more expensive (US$34 cent/km) than in Mal, Viet, Thai, Cina : US$22 cent/km, (The Asia Foundation). Thailand, Vietnam & China had developed large complex for their Seafood Industrial Centre, large size & integrated as trade centre for export & local market (Mahachai, Samut Sakorn in Thai and Zhanjiang, Tianjin, Dalian, Zhou-san in China). China has developed the largest complex in the country for cold storage with the capacity will soon be 1 million ton of storage (2015) in Dalian. Chinese eat about 1 billion tons of perishable food each year & over 50% of that should be transported through the cold chain. Indonesia has the “Minapolitan” for development of capture fisheries & aquaculture. Also the SLIN (Fisheries Logistic)
Typical situation…….
39.00
6.50
38.00
5.65
38.00
6.00
37.00
5.50
4.16 36.00
4.50
35.00
Kg/kapita
5.00
3.93
4.00
35.62 33.89
34.00
3.52 33.00
3.50 3.00
2.86
31.00
2.50
2.00
30.00 2010
32.25
32.00
2011
2012
INDICATOR
2013 *
2014 *
30.48
2010
2011
Estimate Target
Consumption (Kg/Cap) Total population (million people) Total fish demand for consumption (million ton) Total raw material req’t for industry & export (million ton) Value of fisheries exporf (USD billion)
Volume of Fisheries Processed product (million ton)
2012
2013 *
2014 *
2013
2014
Target
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
35.62
38.00
40.01
42.12
44.35
46.69
49.16
248,4
252,1
255,9
259,7
263,6
267,5
271,5
8,9
9,6
10,2
10,9
11,7
12,5
13,3
2,1
3,0
3,3
3,7
4,1
4,6
5,1
4,16
5,65
6,19
6,82
7,55
8,41
9,43
5,20
5,60
6,00
6,50
7,00
7,50
CHINA : Pengolahan ikan trout & salmon import dari luar & hasilnya diexport ke negara lain, shg value added ada disana & industri berkembang.
TANTANGAN EKSTERNAL : Persiapan Negara Lain
VIETNAM
Fish Consumption per Capita
TARGET OF FISH FOR CONSUMPTION & EXPORT
2008 - 2012 (value – in US $ million) THN
Value of Fisheries Export
USD Miliar
growing season, no snow/typhoon), 5,8 million km2 of sea, National seawater +/- 3,1 mil km2, ZEE :+/- 3,0 mil km2 Coastline : 95,181 km, Brackish water/tambak : 1,2 mil ha, Freshwater/kolam : 627.000 ha. Indonesia has the largest potential of fisheries production (65 million tons/year) in the world. Population 245 million (2013) --> 300 million (2025) Fish Consumption 35,62 kg/cap/yr (2013) -> 38 kg (2015). Need additional of 1 million ton of fish within 2 years. Provides 65% of total animal protein intake to Indonesian diet (Chicken:8kg, meat:2,5kg, eggs:87pc, milk:11,5 lt/cap) Global : AFTA (2005), CAFTA (2010), AEC (2015) Long-term seafood market growth drivers : The rise of middle income class in Asia Pacific Countries
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL PRODUK OLAHAN PANGASIUS / DORI / PATIN
Marine, Aquaculture & Seafood Chain • Fishing Vessel • Fishing Gear • Collecting & Handling • Fishing Port
Sea Caught
• • • •
Canned Seafood
Frozen Seafood
Processing
Fresh Seafood
Breeding Hatchery Pond culture Harvesting
Dried seafood
Aquaculture
•Seaweed
•Carrageenan
•Retail & Wholesale
•by products
•Feed Mills
•Fish Oil
•Fishmeal
•Food Supplements
CAPTURE FISHERIES PRODUCTION in JAWA & Outside JAWA
•(ton)
Transport Storage
Processing
Procuct Storage
1,600,000
Supply chain for fish products is long & complicated important to have product standard, certification & traceable
Collector
•27,8%
1,800,000
1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000
Retail & export
•17,8%
800,000 400,000
200,000 -
Consumtion Fisherman Fish/shrimp processing industry create employment (1.000 people to process 2.000 ton fish/shrimp). Not including the employment on farm, traders, feed mill, hatchery also the fisherman.
J a w a
Sumatera
Bali Nusatenggara
•19,7%
•9,1%
•6,2%
600,000
Farmers
THE SEAFOOD PROCESSING UNIT in JAWA-LUAR JAWA
•19,4%
Kalimantan
Sulawesi
Maluku Papua
Outside Jawa
Jawa Ket: *) Data tahun 2012
PERKEMBANGAN UNIT PENGOLAH IKAN 2008–2011
No UPI 1. Udang
2008
2009
2010
2011 Pertumbuhan (%)
161
150
145
150
(- 6,80)
2.
271
273
356
420
24,19
432
423
501
570
13,6
Non Udang
Jumlah
UMKM pengolahan ikan +/- 103.973 unit • Jatim
REGISTERED EXPORTERS TO MAIN DESTINATION COUNTRIES
CAPTURE FISHERIES PRODUCTION in JAWA only 19,4%, but the PROCESSIND Unit concentrated in Jawa •Sumber: Ditjen P2HP, 2012
THE POTENTIAL CONECTIVITY AMONG PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION & INDUSTRY
•GARA TIMUR
•KETERANGAN :
Produksi Centre, industri and Distribusi Production Area
Sumber: Policy Brief Pokja Masterplan SLIN, DJ P2HP, KKP-2012
NO
COUNTRY
TOTAL Exporter
1
USA
2
UNI EROPA
190 UNIT
3
CANADA
150 UNIT
4
CHINA
335 UNIT
Sumber : DJ P2HP - 2012
235 UNIT
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
MAIN TOPIC
CHALLENGES IN IMPLEMENTATION SLIN UPSTREAM : Supply of capture fisheries with good quality and with reasonable quantity; Continuity of supply on capture fisheries.
DOWNSTREAM : Storage of product for good quality product and for food safety; Good Distributions Practices with the implementation of Good cold chain system; Support of logistic services (transportation / distribution with reasonable cost (low cost), eficient & on time; Stability of prices; Transparant criteria for the seafood processing unit/UPI. • Retail Packaged Products
Shrimp
Aktivitas AP5I
Forum Zhanjiang & MUO di Shanghai
AP5I dng CAPPMA sign MOU kerjasama u informasi, investasi, trade. Pengusaha2 Perikanan China ingin beli 1 juta ton udang & ikan dari Indonesia krn naiknya konsumsi D.N & export produk value added
ESE/BRUSSEL,
THAIFEX, VIETFISH. Ikut aktif dlm pameran di Brussels Belgia, Boston USA, Bangkok, Vietnam & China.
Aktif
di ASEAN SEAFOOD FEDERATION, Kerjasama antar Asosiasi Processor Ikan & Udang di ASEAN, menjelang AEC 2015 & krn ASEAN produsen terbesar Udang dunia (60%) & Pangasius (96%). Persyaratan ditentukan pembeli Barat. Ada pembagian tugas : Produksi &Teknologi, Food safety & quality standar, marketing, logistik, investasi & supply bahan baku. Sd disiap kan ASEAN GAP. Pameran bersama di LN & ASEAN. AP5I sbg ketua ASF (2013-2014)
Pameran
FIS Expo & FHI ; Jakarta & Surabaya
Sarana promosi produk2 perikanan pd konsumen Indonesia. Demo masak seafood bagi institusi horeka. Kampanye Gemar Makan Ikan u konsumen & prod. pangan. Menarik minat investasi di perikanan
TEMU
BISNIS ANGGOTA & MOU dg KADIN,
Bahas produk:Fish&Co dg petani patin, Training dng CBI/KKP di SSC. MOU dg ASPURA & Surindo/Nobel (chitosan,chitin). MOU dg KADIN unt ACTIVE & EIBD (EU-Indonesia Bussines Dialogue), PINSAR udang /ikan
Kita Bisa & Harus Cerdas Untuk Jadi Eksportir Handal dan Feed The World & Feed Indonesia
FUTURE PRODUCTS
• New innovation design & products • Ready to cook/to eat & “convenience” (cooked shrimps, value added seafood, frozen meals, pizza) • Value added product & packaging -> standarditation • Trained people/HRD & Competency based certified • Sushi, tempura, breaded, surimi Future product • Cold chain & fresh/frozen food become popular
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
MAIN TOPIC
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
MAIN TOPIC
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
MAIN TOPIC
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
MAIN TOPIC
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
MAIN TOPIC
MAIN TOPIC
REPORT . Indonesia Transport, Supply Chain & Logistics - ITSCL
“Transport Infrastructure Investment to Support Effective Logistics and Supply Chain Strategy in Myanmar”
Key Highlights: Integrated Infrastructure master plan and industrial/SEZ projects status AEC 2015 and the impact on trade flow Investment opportunities & model in Sea Ports, Inland Depots & terminals, Airports, Roads and Railways
Legal framework in setting up logistics & terminal operations Project finance challenges and opportunities for venture capitals Case study of effective supply chain management solutions Update on multimodal transportation & cold chain logistics
Industry News
Damco sets up first container freight station in Myanmar ‘K’ Line to Open Myanmar Office in 2014 Yusen Logistics Celebrates Presence in 40 Countries at Myanmar Inauguration Myanmar invites tenders to build Thilawa ports
Myanmar to upgrade Yangon circular railway for $700 million
Myanmar is gearing up with major transport system revamps. It is estimated that the Ministry of Rail Transportation plans to spend over US$700 million to upgrade Yangon’s circular railroad. The estimated amount is only for revamping the railway and train coaches. The work is expected to begin in 2015 and Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) will assist in the project. The plan is to extend the railway section and replace coaches. Moreover, after the upgrade, the circular train’s speed will increase from its current 30 miles per hour to 80 miles per hour. After this phase of the upgrade work is completed, the ministry plans to construct a sky train with the help of foreign loans. The ministry also plans to upgrade stations, build fences, and install alarm system and automatic gates. The tender for the upgrade of Yangon railway station has already been opened for local and foreign companies. More on Myanmar’s railways will be discussed at the 2nd Myanmar Transport and Logistics Summit on 19-20 January, 2015 in Yangon. Contact Ms. Huiyan at huiyan@cmtsp.com.sg or call +65 6346 9113 for more details.
Report of CILF2014 with Analysis on Exhibitor & Visitor, Date of CILF2015, Oct. 14-16, 2015 China (Shenzhen) International Logistics and Transportation Fair _______________________________________________________________________________________
CILF2014 Report The 9th China (Shenzhen) International Logistics and Transportation Fair (CILF2014 in short), jointly held by Ministry of Transport of China and Shenzhen Municipal People's Government, and sponsored by National Reform and Development Commission and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, co-organized by Transport Commission of Shenzhen Municipality, Shenzhen Logistics and Supply Chain Management Association and Shenzhen Hezhongyuan Exhibition Co., Ltd, was successfully held on Oct. 14-16, 2014 in Shenzhen Convention & Exhibition Center. It gathers 1369 exhibiting companies from 40 countries and 93,000 visits from 70 countries, which set a new record trade show attendance.
Analysis on Exhibitors and Visitors Exhibitors at CILF2014 CILF2014 consisted of a series of different exhibition sections such as Logistics and Supply Chain, Ports and Shipping, Air Cargo, Green Freight, Intelligent Transport, Passenger Transport, New Energy Transport, Transport Planning and Construction, Rail Transport and Sea-Rail Intermodal Transport, Logistics Talents, Etc., which covered almost all links and sectors in logistics and transport industry. CILF2014 attracted over a hundred of industrial giants such as SF Express, China Merchants Group, Tencent, ZTE, Shenzhen International Holdings, Sinotrans, COSCO, China Shipping, Guangdong Ports Pavilion, Yantian Port, Tianjin Port, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Shenzhen Airlines, Donghai Airlines, Shenzhen Baoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;an International Airport, COFCO, CSC, Eternal Asia, Feima, YH Global, Tempus, Hisense, Sinotruk, Foton Auman, Sichuan Hyundai, SAIC Maxus, Iveco, Jianghuai Sunray, Guoshun JMC, Dongfeng Yufeng, BYD, Wuzhoulong, Shenzhen Metro, etc. These domestic enterprises presented the latest development of China logistics industry to worldwide visitors. Meantime, world-renowned industrial giants from 40 countries such as UPS, GLP, Goodman, Port of Hamburg, Port of Antwerp, CMP, Port of Gothenburg, Why Tenerife, Port of
Organizing Committee of the China (Shenzhen) International Logistics and Transportation Fair 7F, Fuâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;An Bldg, Zhuzilin, Futian Dist. Shenzhen 518040, China Website: http://www.scmfair.com/en 1
Report of CILF2014 with Analysis on Exhibitor & Visitor, Date of CILF2015, Oct. 14-16, 2015 China (Shenzhen) International Logistics and Transportation Fair Taranto, Port of Zeebrugge, Hamburg Sud, CMA-CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Russian Railways, Kazakhstan Railways, etc. promoted their business to worldwide visitors.
Exhibitor Industry Categoried Analysis New Energy
2.14%
Rail and Sea-Rail Intermodal
2.42%
Passenger Transport
2.60%
Transport Construction and Planning
3.20%
Green Cargo
3.60%
Intelligent Transportation
4.07% 7.81%
Express
Airport & Airlines
8.21%
Pavilion and Others
8.54% 13.89%
Port & Shipping
43.52%
Logistics & Supply Chain 0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
Exhibitor Survey Not as good as 2013 As good as 2013 Better than 2013
Visitors at CILF2014 CILF2014 has attracted approximately 100 thousand professional visits and purchasers/cargo owners from 70 countries/regions from all over the world. The 3 daysâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; expo has gained over 93 thousand visits, a 6.8% growth than last year.
Organizing Committee of the China (Shenzhen) International Logistics and Transportation Fair 7F, Fuâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;An Bldg, Zhuzilin, Futian Dist. Shenzhen 518040, China Website: http://www.scmfair.com/en 2
Report of CILF2014 with Analysis on Exhibitor & Visitor, Date of CILF2015, Oct. 14-16, 2015 China (Shenzhen) International Logistics and Transportation Fair
Visitor Number (Visits) 100000 80000
67,000 67,000
93,000
56,000
60000
40000
77,000 79,600
85,900 87,000
38,000
20000 0
2006
2007
2008
Day 3
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
26%
Day 2
36%
Day 1
38% 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
According to the analysis of business cards and on-site registration forms, CILF2014 attracted visitors form altogether 70 countries/regions, who mainly came from manufacturing, trading and circulation, logistics and transportation, and finance industries, with seeking cooperation, service and products, and collecting market information being their main purposes. This exemplifies CILF’s features as “Professional, International, Unique Brand and Practical”. Among all visitors, 87% are medium or senior management level personnel.
Visitor Industry Categories Other
7%
Trade
25%
Logistics & Transport
34%
Manufacturing
34% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Organizing Committee of the China (Shenzhen) International Logistics and Transportation Fair 7F, Fu’An Bldg, Zhuzilin, Futian Dist. Shenzhen 518040, China Website: http://www.scmfair.com/en 3
Report of CILF2014 with Analysis on Exhibitor & Visitor, Date of CILF2015, Oct. 14-16, 2015 China (Shenzhen) International Logistics and Transportation Fair
Visitor Position other
8%
Purchasers & Other employees
21%
Owners & GMs
34%
Department Heads
37% 0%
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Visitor Purpose 1%
Others Preparing for exhibiting at CILF2015
5%
Getting to know our competitors
5% 8%
Getting to know latest products/technologies Attending forums/activities
10% 14%
Seeking quality partners
15%
Seeking suppliers
20%
Purchasing products
22%
Purchasing service 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
CILF Main Data
2014
60,000
1369
Number of Countri es /Regi ons Exhi bi tors ca me from 40
2013
54,000
1289
39
87,000
67
2012
50,000
1206
37
85,900
63
2011
50,000
1202
31
79,600
62
2010
50,000
966
22
77,000
54
2009
30,000
568
20
67,000
47
2008
30,000
430
20
67,000
36
2007
25,500
216
16
56,000
21
2006
11,000
154
8
38,000
13
Yea r
Exhi bi ti on Area (s qm)
Number of Exhi bi tors
Number of Vi s i tors (pers onti me) 93,000
Number of Countri es /Regi ons Vi s i tors ca me from 70
Organizing Committee of the China (Shenzhen) International Logistics and Transportation Fair 7F, Fuâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;An Bldg, Zhuzilin, Futian Dist. Shenzhen 518040, China Website: http://www.scmfair.com/en 4
Report of CILF2014 with Analysis on Exhibitor & Visitor, Date of CILF2015, Oct. 14-16, 2015
REPORT International Rail Business Forum 1520 Strategic Partnership: Asia Pacific Opens in China International Rail Business Forum 1520 Strategic Partnership: Asia Pacific Opens in China Shenzhen, China. The International Business Forum “1520 Strategic Partnership: Asia Pacific”, attended 200 delegates from 12 countries, opened at the Shenzhen Convention & Exhibition Center (SZCEC) on 14 October 2014. Addressing the audience at the opening ceremony were Vice Minister of Transport of the People’s Republic of China Feng Zhenglin and First Vice-President of JSC Russian Railways Vadim Morozov. According to the Vice Minister of Transport of the People’s Republic of China, the creation of a common interconnected transport system incorporating various modes of transportation on the basis of state-of-the-art technologies is a priority goal of the Chinese government. He noted that the New Silk Road transport corridor project had been adopted in 2013. The business programme of the event started with the plenary discussion “Eurasian Logistics: Commercial Infrastructure of Transhipments”, which was attended by CEO of Lithuanian Railways Stasys Dailydka, President and CEO of Latvian Railways Ugis Magonis, First Vice-President of JSC Russian Railways Vadim Morozov, Head of the Belarusian Railway Vladimir Morozov, Deputy CEO of China Railway Container Transport Corp. Choung Cheng and CEO of GEFCO Luc Nadal. The discussion was moderated by David Lee, Partner and Managing Director at The Boston Consulting Group. The experts discussed the cargo base and infrastructure opportunities for the transportation of goods between the East and the West. Vadim Morozov said that work was under way as part of the Common Economic Space (CES) integration processes and the establishment of the United Transport and Logistics Company (UTLC) to create a transport corridor for container freights between China and EU member states as an alternative to sea routes. Talking to journalists, the First Vice-President of JSC Russian Railways spoke about the memorandum of cooperation in high-speed rail service between the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation and JSC Russian Railways on the one hand and the National Development and Reform Commission of China and China Railway Corporation on the other, which had been signed the day before. In his speech, the CEO of Latvian Railways Ugis Magonis noted the significance of the company’s investment projects for efforts to improve the infrastructure quality of the East–West railway corridor and expand transportation capabilities, specifically, to receive longer and heavier trains and ensure more uniform freight traffic. The discussion “Eurasian Logistics: Technological Basis of the East–West Corridor” was organised as part of the business programme of the Forum. It addressed tariff policies in the railway service between Asia and Europe, as well as electronic declaration and simplified customs processing of transit cargoes in the 1520 area. The first day of the event concluded with the discussion “Railway – Seaport: Effective Cooperation in the Interests of the Shipper”, which focused on the engagement between railways and seaports and instruments to improve coordination for the sake of building reliable supply chains for intercontinental transportation services. During the second day of the Business Forum 1520 Strategic Partnership: Asia Pacific, the delegates familiarised themselves with the transport and logistics companies and the port infrastructure of the city of Shenzhen. More than 40 media representatives from various countries attended the Forum.
REPORT International Rail Business Forum 1520 Strategic Partnership: Asia Pacific Opens in China
http://forum1520.com/2014/shenzhen
13th ASEAN Ports and Shipping 2015 JW Marriott, Jakarta, Indonesia Wednesday 24 and Thursday 25 June 2015
ASEAN Ports and Shipping continues to be the biggest annual Container Ports and Terminal Operations Exhibition and Conference in the ASEAN region - now in its 13th successful year! The 13th ASEAN Ports and Shipping 2015 Exhibition and Conference will take place in Jakarta, Indonesia at the luxurious 5 star JW Marriott Hotel, Jakarta on Wednesday 24 and Thursday 25 June 2015. A two days Conference Programme will feature 30 world-class conference speakers addressing topical issues and challenges on global transportation and logistics attended by a gathering of 500senior executive harbour masters, harbour engineers, port engineers, maintenance supervisors and procurement decision makers together with the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s leading shippers, cargo owners, importers / exporters, shipping lines, freight forwarders, logistics companies, ports, terminal operating companies, railway operators, port equipment and services suppliers from countries throughout the ASEAN region. There will be the commercial opportunity for 70 exhibitors and sponsors to network directly with the delegates at this major annual international maritime transport Exhibition and Conference trade event for the ASEAN region. We look forward to your participation at the biggest annual Container Ports and Terminal Operations Exhibition and Conference in the ASEAN region taking place in Jakarta, Indonesia on Wednesday 24 and Thursday 25 June 2015 now in its 13th successful year! For further details please contact +60 87 426 022 or email us at joseph@transportevents.com
54
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
JW Marriott, Jakarta, Indonesia Wednesday 24 and Thursday 25 June 2015 Official Hotel and Venue
46
33
45
49
47
10
52
51 43
29
30
31
32
56
34
35
36
37
38
53
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
59
42
41 5
55
12
14
17
18
15
16
19
20
9
8
50
58
7
6
2
1
40
39
48 54
57
11
3
21
60
61 EXHIBITION ENTRANCE
Lanyards Sponsor
Name Tags Sponsor
STAND ALLOCATION 33 60 11 54 3 31 10 28 41 40 18 39 21 29 1 2 19 20 32 6 7 15 16 32 14 46 59 43 42 48 53 8
Conference Sessions Sponsors
(updated on 28 / 11 / 2014)
Bemo Rail BV Bintulu Port Holdings Bhd Bromma Bromma Cavotec Cikarang Dry Port Conductix – Wampfler EUROMEC s.r.l. Gantrex Rail Systems Gaussin Manugistique Hamriyah Free Zone Authority Hydronav Services Pte Ltd Hyster Asia Pacific igus GmbH Indonesia Port Corporation I Indonesia Port Corporation II Indonesia Port Corporation III Indonesia Port Corporation IV IRUGASA China Johor Port Authority Johor Port Authority Johor Port Authority Johor Port Authority KCS (Asia Pacific) Ltd Konecranes Liebherr Ligurian Ports Merford Cabins MHE Demag North Adriatic Ports Association (NAPA) Phoenix Products Company Port Klang
9 6 7 15 16 17 5 61 18 12 22 49 51 52 27 55 38 30 23 24 25 26 34 35 36 37 45 47 50 56 57 58
Port Klang Port of Tanjung Pelepas Port of Tanjung Pelepas Port of Tanjung Pelepas Port of Tanjung Pelepas Prysmian Group RAM Spreaders SANY Group Sharjah Ports Authority Shibata Asia SIBRE Siegerland Bremsen GmbH Stemmann - Technik GmbH Svendborg Brakes Australia Svendborg Brakes Australia Terex Port Solutions Tsubaki Kabelschlepp GmbH Vahle ZF Friedrichshafen Available Available Available Available Available Available Available Available Available Available Available Available Available Available
Conference Delegates Refreshment Sponsors
Conference Delegates Lunch Sponsor
EXHIBITION BOOTH PACKAGE 3 x 2 Square Metre booths Include:
• A Guaranteed Speaker Place in The Concurrent Conference Programme For Companies That Book a Minimum of 5 Exhibitions in a Calendar Year
• Professional Standard Shell Scheme • 1 Exhibition Table • 2 Exhibition Chairs • Exhibition Booth Lighting • Electrical Power Point • Exhibition Booth Carpet • Exhibitor Name Panel • WiFi Broadband Internet Access • 3 Free of Charge Conference Delegate Registrations • The Rate Per Exhibition Booth Package Is GBP5,985 • There is a Registration And Administration Fee of GBP395 Per Booth • There are Multiple Events Booking Discounts Please Visit: www.transportevents.com
Transport Events Management Limited (Co. No. LL05879) Level 1, Lot 7, Block F, Saguking Commercial Building, Jalan Patau-Patau, 87000 Labuan F. T., Malaysia Tel : +60 87 426 022 Fax : +60 87 426 223
REPORT 16th Asia CemenTrade Summit
“Seizing Opportunities in Asia’s Infrastructure and Construction Boom!” “Semen Indonesia is planning to spend US$300 million to establish a new plant in Vietnam next year as part of its business expansion in Southeast Asian” “HOLCIM Cement is bullish about the prospects in Bangladesh, thanks to the ongoing high-profile infrastructure projects, which will pave the way for more growth. In preparation, the company recently invested Tk 300 crore to expand its production capacity to 20 lakh tonnes a year” The Holcim-Lafarge merger has created the world’s biggest cement maker and launched asset sales worldwide. What is the impact on cement industry with the merger? How will it change the market dynamic and trend? According to IA Cement, Myanmar, the Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Malaysia will post robust growth. In Bangladesh, there are a number of infrastructure projects taking place which are driving the growth for cement. In Indonesia, there are huge opportunities with infrastructure plans and several cement plants are currently under construction by existing and new players. With the new government in place, what sort of changes can be expected? In Myanmar, many infrastructure and construction activities are fuelling the demand for cement. SCG sees good opportunity in the country and aims to produce nearly 2 million tons of cement per year at its new plant in Myanmar, once the US$400-million (Bt13 billion) plant starts operations in 2016. 56
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
16th Asia CemenTrade Summit REPORT Conference Papers Mr.Christian Kartawijaya - PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk CEMENT MARKET OUTLOOK IN INDONESIA Indonesian Cement Industry 2014: Existing 9 Cement Players Lafarge Indonesia 1.8 mio ton
Semen Bosowa 5.3 mio ton
Indocement 20.5 mio ton
Indonesia Cement Market Outlook
Semen Indonesia 7.3 mio ton
Semen Indonesia 7.8 mio ton
Semen Baturaja 2.0 mio ton
Semen Kupang/Merah Putih 0.6 mio ton
Christian Kartawijaya
Jui Shin 1.0 mio ton
Merah Putih 0.5 mio ton
Holcim Indonesia 9.9 mio ton © PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. October 2014
Semen Puger 0.5 mio ton
Semen Indonesia 14.4 mio ton
Total Cement Capacity in 2014: 71.6 mio tons
Source: ASI and internal estimation
2
Demand/Supply Outlook: Oversupply Market CAGR 2001-2013: 6.9%
12.5 4.7
1.7
9.2
4.3
1.3
Cement Consumption Segment: CAGR 2014-2024: 7.1%
7.0 11.4 0.9
6.2
17.7 14.5 5.5
4.5
6.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 7.5
100.1
Consumption per capita = 233kg
47.1
47.5
46.1
26.0 27.2 27.7
55.0
58.0
5.0
5.0
34.2
38.1 38.4
98.8
103.8
91.9
114.4
Demand
Infrastructure
21%
18% Commercial
84%
84%
82%
80%
79%
79%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
YTD Aug 2014
Residential 72%
Consumption per capita = 426kg
77.8
Bag
Bulk
Source: ASI and internal estimation
64.3
•
Residential accounts for around 72% of total cement demand in Indonesia. • Supported by the growth of mining & plantation business sectors and favorable mortgage lending environment
•
Meanwhile, with the new government’s planning of investment in infrastructure, it is expected that more infrastructure projects will be realized, which will fed into higher overall economic growth.
40.8
Supply
21%
84%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: ASI and internal estimation
20%
120.1 109.0
70.7 60.6
18%
Cement Consumption Segment
10%
48.0
Export 30.2 31.5 31.9
48.7
44.9
5.0
110.4
85.5
71.6 63.4
54.5
105.2
92.0 77.1
50.9
5.0
16%
117.3
Comparison: Malaysia: 639 kg Thailand: 564 kg Vietnam: 502 kg
60.2
7.5
Bag vs Bulk Cement 16%
16%
Growth
3
4
Key Macroeconomics
Key Macroeconomics
which affect Indonesia Cement Industry Key Drivers for Growth: • Economic Growth (GDP) • Acceleration of investment in infrastructure development • Favorable inflation and mortgage rate • Growth in Property Sector • Growing middle class segment as consuming class with growing income base • Urbanization • Commodity & Mining Businesses
which affect Indonesia Cement Industry Key Drivers for the profitability of Indonesia Cement Industry: 1. Exchange rate Development of IDR vs. USD
Approximately 50-60% of costs related to foreign currency such as: Fuels, Materials and Manufacturing Overheads
2. Coal price
Indonesia’s coal reference price (HBA) decreased by 12% since the beginning of 2014
3. Electricity
4.
Electricity costs policy (PLN Pricing policy)
Inflation rate
Labor and raw material costs follow trend of Inflation rate
Production Cost structure of Cement Companies in Indonesia Fuels 20%
28%
Electricity Materials
10% 17% 25%
Labour Manufacturing Overhead
Source: Internal estimation
Weakening IDR and hike of electricity subsidies squeezed margins but a stabilizing macro environment as well as lower trend in coal prices support margins at current level Slide 6 ‐ CLSA Investor's Forum 2014
5
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57
REPORT 16th Asia CemenTrade Summit Alternative Fuel Considerations
Distribution & Logistics Challenges: High Distribution Cost in Indonesia due to Not Well-Established Infrastructure
Alternative Fuel (Co-processing)
Limited Deep Water Port • Own Infrastructure Facilities: Grinding Plants, Terminals, Warehouses, Ports, etc.
Port Congestion Non Hazardous Waste
Biomass : Rice husk, Saw Dust, palm kernel Shell , etc) Used Tire Municipal Waste / RDF
• • •
In-land: Traffic Jam & Driver Availability
Hazardous Waste: • Industrial Waste : Fly Ash / Bottom Ash, oil sludge, paint sludge, WWT sludge, used rags etc
• Develop Transportation Mode: Trucks, Trains, Ships, Containers, etc.
Truck Time Restriction in Cities Axle Load Regulation
• Improve Supply Chain Management
Non-Subsidized Fuel
8
7
Investment/ Expansion Update No
Company
Location
1 Indocement Citeureup, West Java Indocement Pati, Central Java Indocement Medan, North Sumatera 2 Semen Indonesia Dumai, Riau Semen Indonesia Indarung, West Sumatera Semen Indonesia Rembang, Central Java 3 Holcim Tuban, East Java Holcim ‐ 2nd line Tuban, East Java 4 Semen Bosowa Maros Banyuwangi, East Java Total Existing Players 5 Jui Shin Indonesia Karawang, West Java 6 Siam Cement (Thailand) Sukabumi, West Java 7 Semen Merah Putih Ciwandan, Banten Semen Merah Putih Bayah, Banten 8 Anhui Conch Tanjung, South Kalimantan 9 Pan Asia Ajibarang, Central Java Total New Players Grand Total Source: Various Published News
Capacity (mio ton) 4.4 2.5 2.5 0.9 3.0 3.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 21.2 2.0 1.8 0.8 4.0 1.5 2.0 12.1 33.3
Est. Year
Type
2015 2018 2018 2014 2016 2016 2014 2016 2015
Brownfield Greenfield Greenfield FM Brownfield Greenfield Greenfield
2014 2015 2014 2015 2015 2016
Greenfield Greenfield FM Greenfield Greenfield Greenfield
FM
Key Drivers for the realization of Investment/ Expansion in Indonesia: • Significant entry barriers for new player • Land ownership • Permitting process • Resistance from local communities
• Distribution channel • Brand recognition • Weak currency makes imported Equipment less attractive
10
9
Mr.Imran Akram - IA Cement Ltd GLOBAL CEMENT OUTLOOK AND TRADE FLOW
IA Cement Ltd
Market overview - Summary - China & India - Rest of Asia - Africa Middle East - The Americas
- Europe
Global Cement Outlook CMT Jakarta
IA Cement Ltd – imran@iacement.com
Page number 2
Advisers to the global cement industry
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16th Asia CemenTrade Summit REPORT China and India
Global Overview Global Demand Western Europe Eastern Europe North America Latin America Middle East China India Rest of Asia Africa
Volume 2013 Mt 119 139 91 180 258 2,416 250 354 191
2005 1.7% 10.6% 5.4% 8.3% 11.1% 8.3% 9.9% 0.2% 11.5%
2006 4.8% 13.9% -3.6% 9.9% 10.3% 13.5% 12.2% 2.8% 10.3%
2007 0.2% 13.6% -8.6% 7.5% 10.6% 10.0% 8.9% 3.5% 13.1%
2008 -9.4% 0.8% -14.1% 5.4% 8.8% 5.4% 5.0% 2.9% 7.1%
2009 -19.4% -22.5% -25.2% -2.4% 3.9% 17.3% 10.6% -0.9% 9.8%
2010 -6.2% 2.4% 0.6% 6.2% 7.8% 14.8% 10.5% 2.8% 4.2%
2011 -0.6% 10.3% 1.4% 7.0% 8.2% 11.4% 6.2% 4.4% 3.6%
2012 -13.7% 1.7% 9.8% 3.4% 3.7% 6.0% 7.2% 5.4% 7.5%
2013P -8.9% 2.8% 4.6% 2.6% 4.4% 9.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6%
2014E -1.4% 2.2% 5.1% 2.1% 3.2% 4.0% 6.0% 3.7% 4.4%
2015E 0.4% 2.2% 5.4% 2.0% 3.5% 3.5% 7.5% 4.4% 4.9%
3,998 1,582
7.0% 5.9%
9.8% 6.7%
7.6% 5.5%
3.1% 1.0%
6.2% -4.6%
9.9% 4.0%
8.8% 5.3%
4.9% 3.4%
6.3% 2.4%
3.8% 3.4%
3.8% 4.1%
Global Demand World excl. China
China and India – cement demand 20%
17.3%
18% 16%
14.8%
14% 12%
10.6%
10.5%
10%
11.4% 9.1%
8%
6.2%
6%
6.0%
7.5%
7.2%
6.0% 3.1%
4%
4.0%
3.5%
2% 0%
2014 slightly better than last year ex-China;
2009
2010
2011
2012 China
Disappointing year so far;
2013
2014e
2015e
India
Mature markets are improving;
Modest growth in 2014;
Emerging markets are mixed.
China affected by tighter liquidity; New Government in India provides a big confidence boost; Real estate remains a concern in both countries.
Diverging prospects
A small improvement in 2014 Page number 3
Page number 4
Africa Middle East
Rest of Asia Demand in major markets, 2014-15E
8%
11.0%
Myanmar
6%
5.3%
5.8%
5.4%
6.5%
5.6% 4.2%
4%
4.0%
0%
Philippines
Indonesia
Malaysia
3.0%
3%
Malaysia
2%
Indonesia
1.0%
1%
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Japan
12% 10%
3.6%
3.2%
8%
2.5%
200
400
600
800
9.2% 8.0%
7.2%
6.0%
6%
1.5%
2.1%
2.0%
2%
Iraq
Saudi
Qatar
UAE
2014E cement consumption
1000
7.3% 7.0% 5.0%
3.7%
4%
1.2%
1.0%
Iran
0
Myanmar
14%
0%
South Korea
0.0%
S Korea
4%
Thailand
6.0%
2.6% 2.4%
1.2% 0.6%
2%
5.0%
16.0%
16%
5.0%
5%
Vietnam
8%
18%
6.0%
6%
Japan
10%
7.5%
7.0%
7%
12.0%
12%
Key markets in Africa 2014-15E
Key markets in the Middle East 2014-15E
Consumption per capita
14%
1.9% 1.4%
1.0%
0%
Turkey
Algeria
Egypt
2015E
Libya
Kenya
South Africa
2014E cement consumption
Ghana
Nigeria
2015E
Kg per capita
2014E cement consumption
2015E
Middle East is slow, marked by a muted pick-up after Ramadan; Saudi affected by labour shortages and high stocks;
Reconstruction in the Philippines after Typhoon Hainan;
Iraq hit by IS insurgency;
Limited foreign investment into Myanmar to date;
Return to growth in Egypt;
New Government in Indonesia;
Sub-Saharan Africa remains strong.
Recovery in Korea/Vietnam.
Strong recovery in Africa
Solid growth
Page number 6 Page number 5
Europe
The Americas Cement demand in key markets, 2014-15E
Key markets Western Europe, 2014-15E
Consumption per capita
10%
4% 7.5%
8%
Colombia 5.8%
6% 4% 1.6%
2%
2.5% 2.9%
Mexico
3.4%
2.3%
Brazil
-6%
Argentina
-6%
USA
-3.9%
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
2014E cement consumption
Mexico
USA
3.5%
Italy
Spain
Key markets Eastern Europe, 2014-15E UK
3.5%
3.0%
8%
4%
-2.5%
-2.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
-0.1%
-2%
2.5%
-0.3%
-6%
-6.0%
-8%
-4.4%
-5.0% -6.0%
2014E cement consumption
6.5%
1.5%
-4%
-10%
-10.0%
-12%
2015E
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania
2014E cement consumption
Kg per capita
US cement has turned the corner;
5.5%
5.1% 1.3%
0% -1.0%
-1.5%
-8%
2015E
7.0%
6%
2%
-4%
-3.6%
Greece
2.6%
0%
0%
-4%
3.3%
-2%
Argentina
-2%
Germany
2%
5.5% 5.8%
0.8%
France
Russia
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
2015E
Western Europe in a precarious state;
Uncertainties in Brazil post World-Cup;
UK highlights pent-up demand after six years of decline;
Argentina undergoing a debt crisis;
Recovery in Poland and other East European countries;
Mexican and Colombian improvement after difficult 2013.
Russia-Ukraine crisis a difficult new dimension.
Losing steam again
Mixed picture
Page number 8
Page number 7
Bubble Trouble – the key future risk House price bubbles, OECD
LafargeHolcim merger House price inflation, 10Y
Japan Germany Ireland Portugal Slovenia Czech Republic United States Denmark Spain United Kingdom Sweden France Canada Norway
300%
- A new global leader
250% 200%
- Disposals
150% 100%
- Opportunities/buyers
50% 0%
Philippines Taiwan Colombia
South Africa
Argentina
China
Russia
India
10Y House price inflation
House price inflation since 2009 -40
-20
Cheap
0
Price-to-income ratio
20
40 Expensive
60
Price-to-rent ratio
80
180% 160% 140% 120%
US rate cycle will turn in 2015;
100%
Prolonged low global interest rates created asset bubbles;
80%
Emerging markets are vulnerable to capital outflows;
40%
House price and credit bubbles will burst.
60%
20% 0%
Turkey
Malaysia
Singapore
Hong Kong
Brazil
Peru
House price inflation since 2009
Soft landing is impossible Page number 9
Page number 10
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59
REPORT 16th Asia CemenTrade Summit Asset disposals
A new global leader Profile of LafargeHolcim (LH)
Geographic split of combined group
LH
Key metrics Sales EBITDA Capacity Countries Cost savings (3Y) Billionaire Shareholders
LH combined, 2013A EBITDA
$44bn $9bn 400Mt 90 $1.9bn 4
Latin America 16%
North America 15%
Africa Middle East 21%
Asia 28%
Europe 20%
Lafarge and Holcim faced a tough five years; LH will clearly be global number one; Merger of equals;
Four billionaire shareholders.
DISPOSALS Serbia Philippines Romania France Canada Germany Brazil EXTRA DISPOSALS Hungary UK Austria Mauritius NO ANNOUNCEMENTS Morocco Malaysia Czech USA India Spain Indonesia Vietnam ALREADY SOLD Russia Mexico Pakistan Ecuador
LH combined is stronger than L and H
Lafarge 50% 30% 29% 33% 32% 7% 8%
Holcim 35% 42% 36% 20% 18% 10% 6%
LH
85% 72% 65% 53% 50% 17% 14%
8% 40% 32%
28% 42% 20% 11% 3% 14% 3% 1%
22% 4% 20% 17% 19% 8% 14% 7%
50% 46% 40% 28% 22% 22% 17% 8%
4% 2% 5% 16%
6% 21% 65%
10% 23% 5% 81%
Disposal
Mt 1.4 3.1 4.9 2.0 3.3 3.4 3.6
Holcim (plant closed) LafargeTarmac JV to be sold 1 Lafarge plant Holcim (under construction)
1.7 4.1 1.1
Holcim Some Lafarge plants Lafarge Some Holcim to be sold Holcim Lafarge Assets from both groups
3.5 1.2 3.0 2.0 3.9
1 Lafarge plant Lafarge JV stake Lafarge Lafarge
2.3 1.0 2.1 1.4
A major opportunity Page number 12
Page number 11
CONCLUSIONS
Disposals/Buyers Profile of Disposals Key metrics of disposals Sales EBITDA Capacity Countries
Geographic split of disposals
LH Disposals
Mature markets are improving.
Asia 12%
$6.5bn $1bn 42Mt 16
A summer of downgrading forecasts.
Africa 8%
LafargeHolcim is an industry game-changer.
Latin America 9% North America 8%
Asset bubbles will eventually burst.
Europe 63%
THANK YOU !!
One single package would create a large company; Multinational groups are natural buyers; Clear opportunity for emerging market companies; Private equity consortia are interested;
Disclaimer This document has been issued by IA Cement Ltd for information purposes only. The information contained herein is based on materials and sources that we believe to be reliable, however, IA Cement Ltd makes no representation or warranty, either express or implied, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates included in this document are subject to change without notice and IA Cement Ltd is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. IA Cement Ltd, or its employees shall have no liability whatsoever for any indirect or consequential loss or damage arising from any use of this document. All readers should take appropriate steps to ensure they understand the risks involved in making estimates and should not rely upon this research.
LH unlikely to be the only deal.
Creation of a new force?
All rights reserved. Any part of this work may only be reproduced, copied or made available to other parties if there is full written permission from IA Cement Ltd.
Page number 13
U.Soe Naing - KBZ Industries Ltd CEMENT MARKET OUTLOOK IN MYANMAR
Soe Naing (Consultant) KBZ Industries limited E mail (kbzindustries@gmail.com)
60
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
Page number 14
16th Asia CemenTrade Summit REPORT Update of Myanmar Cement Industry Existing Cement Plants (1)
Update of Myanmar Cement Industry
Ministry of Industry THAYET Cement Plant. 400 tpd x 3 lines (Wet Process) (Under the process of privatization) KYANGIN Cement Plant 400 tpd x 4 lines ( Wet Process) (Under the process of privatization) KYAUKSE Cement Plant 500 tpd one line( Renovated ) (Already transfered to Private Co. ( under JV basis ) ( Myint Associate Co (Local) + Conch Group ( China ) - Planning to set up 5000 tpd
Update of Myanmar Cement Industry (4) Private Cement Plants
(2) Myanma Economic Corporation Myainggalay(1) 900 tpd Myainggalay(2) 4000 tpd ( Still in Operation ) (3) Myanma Economic Holding Kyaukse - SINMIN Cement Plant 400 tpd wet process 700 tpd dry process ( N.S.P ) 1200 tpd dry process ( N.S.P ) ( J.V with Gold Cement ( Local ) Update of Myanmar Cement and LVT (Thailand) )
(1) Triple â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Aâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Cement Factory 200 tpd Wet Process 500 tpd Wet Process 500 tpd Wet Process / 2 lines ( Kyaukse ) (2) Tiger Head Cement Plant 300 tpd wet process (Kyaukse ) (3) Mandalay Cement Industry 300 tpd dry process S.P Kiln ( Ohn Chaw - Mandalay) 300 tpd dry process S.P Kiln x 2 lines ( Kyaukse )
Industry
(4) Ruby Dragon Cement Plant 400 tpd Wet Process x 2 lines Update ofKyit Myanmar ( Tee - Shan State)Cement
Industry
(5) Max Cement Plant 500 tpd Wet Process ( Taung Philar - Near Nay Pyi Taw ) ( Under conversion to Dry Process ) (6) Nay Pyi Taw City Development Committee 500 tpd Wet Process ( N.C.D.C ) (Taung Phi Lar - Nay Pyi Taw) (7) Yangon City Development Committee 500 tpt Wet Process (Pyin Nyaung) (Transferred to Max .Co) (8) Apache Cement Plant 1500 tpd Dry Process N.S.P (Pyin Nyaung)
Total Production Lines Wet Process. 17 Production Lines Dry Process . 9 Production Lines Minninum Capacity 200 tpd Maxinum Capacity 4000 tpd
(9) Crown Cement Plant 1500 tpd Dry Process N.S.P Naung Cho - Shan State
Update of Myanmar Cement Industry Productivity of Local Plants Total Installed capicity of existing plants is 5.5 million ton.Actual production is approximately 4.0 million ton. The reason for reduced production is lack of electricity,lack of spares and lack of Technicians. Local demand is presently about 8 million ton.Total imported cement in 2014 is about 2 million ton and imported amont is increasing steadily.Local cement retail price is about 100 usd/ ton. The retail price of cement is rather high compared to international price.It is due to unbalance of demand and supply. Local Cement Demand & Productivity structure is as below:-
Update of Myanmar Cement Industry Year
Production
Demand
2014 2015 2016 2020
4.0 m.t 5.0 m.t 6.0 m.t
8.0 m.t 10.0 m.t 12.0 m.t 20 m.t
Cement was imported from neighbouring countries such as Thailand, China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam.SCG from Thailand has got a big share in the market.At the same time world leader Lafarge is also comming in and penetrating in Yangon Market through Thilawar Cement Terminal. Cement transport in Myanmar is mainly done by road transport very few are by ship along Ayeyar Waddy river. At present ,bagged cement takes 95% and bulk cement is increasing slowly.Ready mixed Conerete works are also increasing day by day.
REPORT 16th Asia CemenTrade Summit Update of Myanmar Cement Industry
Update of Myanmar Cement Industry In the year 2008,Ministry of Industry gave permissions to Local companies to set up new cement plants. The total number of new license holders are about 25. Out of them only the following Co, can realize 1. Kanbawza Co, Ltd 2. Htoo Co, Ltd 3. Shwe Taung Co, Ltd 4. Ngweyipale Co,Ltd 5. Pacific Link Co,Ltd 6. Max Co, Ltd 7. Than Taw Myat Co,Ltd 8. Ruby Dragon Co, Ltd
The remaining license holders are still on planning stage and can not realize. The main difficulty for them is financing. They are looking for foreign partners who would like to invest. The outstanding Cement license holders are :1. United Cement Co, 2. June Industry 3. Zaykabar Co 4. Yuzana Co 5. Farmer Pho Yazar Co 6. Sun Lin Co 7. Eden Group Co 8. Myanmar Naing Group, 9. 24 Hrs Mining Co,. etc
Challenges in Myanmar Cement Industry
Challenges in Myanmar Cement Industry
Wet Process Lines As mentioned earlier, there one still 17-wet process lines. Wet process lines will not be competitive with dry process lines. They need to be converted into dry process. But some plants are very old and will not be economical to be converted into dry process. Out of 17 wet process lines only Max cement (500 tpd) has converted into dry process. but not yet completed.
Challenges in Myanmar Cement Industry
Electricity In Myanmar the main challenge for its growth is insufficiency of Electricity. Government has many projects and plans for new power source, but only very few percentage is realized. As everybody knows, Myanmar is exporting Natural Gas to Thailand and China. But the country itself cannot utilize. Gas turbine generation are very few compared to other countries. Cement sector cannot use Natural Gas for firing because of uneconomical price. And there is only one coal fired power station with small MW. Most of Cement Plants get electricity from National Grid. The price is about 15 cents per kwh. The supply of electricity is not consistent so the plants need to have a diesel generator for continuous running and this generator must be able to run raw mill kiln and coal mill . In Myanmar, only one Cement Plant(Crown Cement) use its own power generating unit (Coal Fired Power). The only cement plant MEC,4000 tpd has Waste Heat Generating Unit which generate about 3.2 MW.
Challenges in Myanmar Cement Industry
FUEL
As for fuel,the Government offer Natural Gas but the price is about 12.5 USD per MMBTU. Nobody use Natural gas because of high price. The only fuel is local coal. The type is lignite and average calorific value is 4000~4500 K cal/kg. Investment Most of local companies who got the license from the Government can not set up a cement plant with own money . They all need financial backup. The Government also cannot give Bank Guarantee to private companies .So foreign investers who would like to make secure investment are hesitating to make investment. For local partners although they can get bank loan from private local Banks, the interest rate is too high when compared to international practice.
Challenges in Myanmar Cement Industry
Infrastructure & Construction Projects Myanmar was a newly born democratic country. As everybody knows Myanmar was under military junta since 1962.So it was more than half a century. Some of close friends told me that your country was self -invaded country. If was true and under military junta Myanmar becomes the poorest country in the world. Now it was believed that Myanmar become once again in the light of Democracy. But it may take time to become fully democratic. So infrastructure in Myanmar was very poor. We need to reconstruct every thing.
62
Cement Transport Myanmar is a newly born democratic country so it is lack of infrastructure for her development. For cement transport presently we have to rely on road transport only. We can use the water way only in some portion and railway also need improvement. Bagged and Bulk Cement At present, bagged cement is about 95% and bulk cement is only about 5 %.Bulk cement transport is increasing slowly and at the same time ready -mix concrete works are also increasing.
Challenges in Myanmar Cement Industry
Roads & Bridges Myanmar has only one 'so called' High Way from Yangon to Mandalay. Other neighbouring countries have so many high ways. Myanmar Railway systems was also very poor, it needs to be upgraded and also for water way the rivers need to be navigable.
Public & Private Housing Projects. Now only, the government and private companies are starting projects for public and private housings. Many new hotels and condominiums are under construction.
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
16th Asia CemenTrade Summit REPORT Challenges in Myanmar Cement Industry
Thank U For Your Kind Attention Oil ,Gas and Electricity There are many projects in the oil and gas exploration and extraction fields .Government has given license to the local and foreign companies. All of them are on process. Concerning with electricity also there are many hydroelectric projects which are under process. All the above mentioned projects are connected with Myanmar Cement Industry. I hope that if the political conditions are stable, in the year 2020,Myanmar Cement Industry will boom up in South East Asia.
Soe Naing (Consultant) (KBZ Industries ltd) Contact e –mail - kbzindustries@gmail.com
Mr.M. Kassim Gokal - PT Oceanic Trade & Services DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK MAIN FUNDAMENTALS AFFECTING THE BULK SHIPPING MARKET
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK
GLOBAL DEMAND TO MOVE BULK COMMODITIES SUPPLY OF BULK VESSELS
MARKET SENTIMENT
M. KASSIM GOKAL
FUEL OIL / BUNKER PRICES CHOKE POINTS - SUEZ CANAL, PANAMA CANAL
SEASONAL FACTORS EG. WEATHER, HARVESTS
PT. OCEANIC TRADE & SERVICES JAKARTA
POLITICAL FACTORS AND TRADING PATTERNS DEVELOPMENTS IN VESSEL SIZE & ECONOMICS
FOR CMT CEMENTRADE CONFERENCE JAKARTA, 13-14 OCTOBER 2014
PORT DEVELOPMENT AND PORT CONGESTION PIRACY AND WARS
Converted by UseOffice .Net trial. Get a license for the component.
PERTINENT EVENTS IN ‘RECENT’ SHIPPING HISTORY (1)
SUEZ CANAL CLOSURE 1967-1975
SUEZ CANAL CLOSURE 1967 – 1975
SHIPS OF 10,000 DWT SAILING FROM EUROPE TO
ASIA FORCED TO ROUND THE CAPE OF GOOD HOPE, ALMOST DOUBLING STEAMING TIME. LARGER BULK VESSELS OF 20-30,000 DWT HAD TO BE BUILT TO BE ECONOMIC ON THIS ROUTE. 1967 - 1973 FREIGHT RATES SKY ROCKETED MAJOR FREIGHT PRICE MOVEMENTS WERE LINKED TO FUNDAMENTAL PHYSICAL FACTORS
FREIGHT RATES SKY ROCKETED DUE TO THE EXTRA TON / MILE DEMAND
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
63
REPORT 16th Asia CemenTrade Summit (2) OPEC CRISIS & SUEZ CANAL RE-OPENS
(3) MIDDLE EAST BOOM 1976 FREIGHT MARKETS THEN RECOVERED AFTER
IN 1973 THE OPEC CRISIS RESULTED IN A
1976 DUE TO THE HUGE BOOM OF BUILDING MATERIAL IMPORTS INTO OIL RICH COUNTRIES OF MIDDLE EAST AND WEST AFRICA.
VERY MAJOR OIL PRICE HIKE LEADING TO ECONOMIC DEPRESSION, AND DRY CARGO FREIGHT MARKETS CRASHED DOWN. MATTERS WERE THEN COMPOUNDED BY THE REOPENING OF THE SUEZ CANAL IN 1975, WHICH RELEASED A HUGE AMOUNT OF SHIPPING CAPACITY TO THE MARKET. FREIGHT MARKETS PLUNGED FURTHER AND MOST SHIP OWNERS THOUGHT THIS WOULD BE THE END FOR THEM.
BUT PORT CAPACITIES WERE NOT ADEQUATE TO
MEET THE NEEDS. THIS RESULTED IN SEVERE CONGESTION IN THE PORTS AND VERY LONG DELAYS WAITING TO BERTH. THIS CONGESTION FACTOR WAS SIGNIFICANT IN TYING UP SHIPS AND MAINTAINING THE FIRM MARKET.
(4) PORT CONGESTION NIGHTMARE JEDDAH 1976 HUGE VOLUME OF IMPORTS INTO JEDDAH PORT CAPACITY WAS TOTALLY INSUFFICIENT
200 CARGO VESSELS WAITING AT ANCHORAGE ABOUT 100 VESSELS LOADED WITH CEMENT
1 MILLION MT BAGGED CEMENT AT ANCHOR
12 BERTHS WERE OPERATING, WAITING TIME FOR A BERTH WAS ABOUT 4 - 5 MONTHS
ONLY
DEMURRAGE
$ 3,000 - 6,000 / DAY PER SHIP
CEMENT WAS REQUIRED ON PRIORITY BASIS AN URGENT SOLUTION WAS NEEDED !
JEDDAH ANCHORAGE, SUMMER ’76
SAUDI SOLUTION : DISCHARGE BY HELICOPTER!
THE FOLLOWING PHOTOS ARE PRESENTED BY KIND PERMISSION OF THE IGOR I. SIKORSKY HISTORICAL ARCHIVES, INC.
SAUDI ARABIAN GOVT CONTRACTED CARSON
HELICOPTER CO. OF PENNSYLVANIA, U.S.A.
CONTRACT TO DISCHARGE BY AIR 600,000 MT
BAGGED CEMENT FROM SHIPS AT ANCHOR.
CARSON CO. OPERATED THE SIKORSKY S-58T
HELICOPTER WITH LIFT CAPACITY ABOUT 2 MT
THE CONTRACT REQUIREMENT WAS TO MAKE
SIKORSKY S-58 T HELICOPTER
300,000 LOADED AIR LIFTS, FROM VESSELS
AT ANCHORAGE TO LANDING SITES IN PORT. IS THIS BELIEVABLE OR NOT?
BAGGED CEMENT DISCHARGE BY HELICOPTER
VERY DANGEROUS AND
REQUIRED EXPERT & PRECISION FLYING
HUGE AMOUNTS OF
CEMENT DUST FLYING
1,000 MT OF BREAKAGE
OF BAGS PER VESSEL TO BE REPACKED.
ONLY RECORDED CASE
OF FULL DISCHARGE OF SHIPS BY HELICOPTER
CEMENT SLING ATTACHED TO 100 FT LONG STEEL WIRE
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED !
BAGGED CEMENT DELIVERED TO LANDING SITES ONSHORE
CEMENT HISTORY TO REMEMBER
(5) BALTIC DRY INDEX (BDI) 1985
- NOT TO REPEAT !
600,000 MT BAGGED CEMENT DISCHARGED
1977 - 1985
FREIGHT MARKET LEVELS WERE STILL BEING SET BY THE INFORMATION PASSING BETWEEN SHIPBROKERS ON THE LONDON BALTIC EXCHANGE, ON THE BASIS OF THE ‘LAST DONE’ FIXING RATES.
CARRIED IN 2 TON SLINGS ON 100FT CABLES
7 HELICOPTERS USED WITH A TOTAL OF 15,000 FLYING HRS.
500 STEVEDORES, 30 PILOTS, 40 MECHANICS
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX (BDI) WAS LAUNCHED
CONTRACT TOOK AN ESTIMATED 6
MONTHS TO COMPLETE COST WAS HUGE , FINAL BILL WAS KEPT SECRET TRAILS OF CEMENT DUST SEEN ACROSS THE SKY
(6) 2004 – 2007 SHIPPING BOOM 14000
BDI 2003-2005 STRONG FUNDAMENTALS, NEW BUILDING ORDERS UP TO 20% OF FLEET
12000
10000 8000
6000 4000
1985-2003 BDI IN REGULAR 2-4 YEAR CYCLES
2000 0
‘90 S.AFRICA ‘91 USSR>CIS ‘93 CHINA OPENS ‘97 ASIAN CRISIS
MAJOR EVENTS 1990 – 2000 WITHOUT RADICAL CHANGE IN MARKET
WORLD IRON ORE IMPORTS 2007-2009 BUT THE MAIN CARGO VOLUMES FOR IRON ORE, COAL, DID NOT CHANGE MUCH, SO WHY THE SUDDEN CRASH IN FREIGHT ?
BY THE BALTIC EXCHANGE IN 1985 , PROVIDING A MORE OPEN INDICATOR OF SPOT FREIGHT MARKET LEVELS. DATA WAS INPUT DAILY ON PREDETERMINED ROUTES BY A SELECTED PANEL OF LONDON BROKERS AND THE INDEX LEVEL PUBLISHED DAILY.
(7) 2008 MARKET CRASH FROM 2006 TO 2008 GLOBAL GROWTH AND TRADE
BALOONED DRAMATICALLY, WITH EASY CREDIT AND STRONG CONSUMER DEMAND IN THE USA BALTIC DRY INDEX (BDI) CLIMBED RAPIDLY TO AN ALL TIME HIGH OF 11,747 EASY CREDIT TERMS ALLOWED SHIPOWNERS AND SHIPYARDS TO FINANCE A RECORD NUMBER OF NEW BUILDING BULK CARRIERS CHINA BULK IMPORT VOLUMES SET THE PACE OF THE FREIGHT MARKET, ESPECIALLY IN IRON ORE
AND THEN THE MARKET CRASHED WORLD COAL IMPORT VOLUME (SEABORNE) 2007-2009 2007
2008
2009
EUROPE
220.1
200.5
195.7
JAPAN
186.1
191.7
161.8
CHINA
51
40.8
92.1
42.1
KOREA
88.3
99.7
103.0
16
11.9
TAIWAN
66.3
65.1
58.6
928
931.8
TOTAL SEABORNE
814.7
827.7
846.0
IRON ORE IMPORTS (MT)
2007
2008
2009
EU 27
172
173
102.7
JAPAN
139
139
105.4
CHINA
384
445
628
KOREA
47
49
TAIWAN
16
WORLD IMPORTS
838
COURTESY OF SSY
MARKET CRASH (JUN - DEC 2008)
COAL IMPORTS SEABORNE (MT)
COAL VOLUMES ALSO UNCHANGED
INDEX
05 JUNE 08
05 DEC 08
% CHANGE
BDI
11,689
663
-94%
BCI
19,687
871
-96%
BPI
9,986
504
-95%
BSI
6,307
548
-93%
BHSI
3,225
300
-90%
PRESENTED BY EAST ASIA MARITIME PTE LTD
(8) THE FREIGHT FUTURES MARKET THE FREIGHT FUTURES MARKET HAD GROWN
DRAMATICALLY FROM 2006 ONWARDS, BASED ON VOLATILITY OF BDI ,BCI, BPI, BSI, BHSI INDEXES
TRADITIONAL OWNERS & CHARTERERS WERE NOT
SO FAMILIAR WITH TRADING FREIGHT FUTURES
BUT SPECULATORS, BANKS, HEDGE FUNDS WERE ALL
ATTRACTED INTO THIS NEW VOLATILE MARKET
‘YOU CAN BUY AND SELL FREIGHT WITHOUT
ANY PHYSICAL ASSETS’
16th Asia CemenTrade Summit REPORT FREIGHT FUTURES VOLATILITY THE ABILITY TO SPECULATE AND HEDGE ON PAPER
FREIGHT ALLOWED BIG PLAYERS TO DRIVE FREIGHT MARKETS TO UNREALISTICALLY HIGH LEVELS.
WHEN THESE PAPER PLAYERS SUDDENLY PULLED OUT
AFTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL BUBBLE BURST, PHYSICAL FREIGHT MARKETS ALSO COLLAPSED.
FREIGHT FUTURES AND MARKET SENTIMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON PHYSICAL MARKETS, MAGNIFYING VOLATILITY AND ABILITY TO CREATE SUDDEN MOVEMENT.
ALL MAJOR PLAYERS ARE PRESENT
PANAMAX FUTURES – 150% OF PHYSICAL MARKET
(9) - POST FINANCIAL CRISIS ASSET PLAYERS ENTER MARKET
DRY BULK FLEET STATISTICS AS OF 31ST AUGUST 2014
THE BULK FLEET IN 2009 STOOD AT 411 MILLION DWT
TOTAL BULK FLEET 9,950 SHIPS 737.8 MDWT AGE>= 20 YEARS 1,189 SHIPS 71.1 MDWT 9.6% NEW ORDERBOOK 1,843 SHIPS 156.4 MDWT 21.2%
2009 - 2014 FREIGHT VOLATILITY
CAPE SIZE T/C RATES ARE–MOST 2009 2011 VOLATILE MARKET VOLATILITY
DAILY TIMECHARTER RATES BY COURTESY OF DRYSHIPS
THE DRY BULK NEW BUILDING ORDERBOOK WAS 275 MILLION DWT OR 66% OF THE FLEET MANY RENEGOTIATIONS TO DELAY DELIVERIES OR TO CANCEL NEW BUILDINGS TOOK PLACE. FREIGHT RATES CRASHED DUE TO HUGE SURPLUS OF SHIPS / TONNAGE. SOME OWNERS WERE IN TOO DEEP. BUT MANY SPECULATORS REMAINED IN THE MARKET. NEW BUILDING PRICES CAME DOWN, ATTRACTING NEW INVESTMENT IN SHIPS FROM ASSET PLAYERS. (ESTIMATED $30BN INTO SHIPPING IN LAST 4 YEARS. – QUOTED BY JIM SLATER)
JAN - AUG 2014 FLEET GREW BY 23.5 MDWT 3.3% SEP - DEC 2014 FURTHER 314 SHIPS 24.5 MDWT
OF NEWLY BUILT BULKERS WILL BE DELIVERED
DURING JAN-AUG 2014 APPX 600 NEW ORDERS
PLACED FOR BULK CARRIERS OF ALL SIZES. DESPITE WORLD ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, LOW FREIGHT AND OVER SUPPLY OF VESSELS, NEW BULK SHIPS ARE STILL BEING ORDERED. ARE ASSET PLAYERS MAKING THE RIGHT CALL? STATS COURTESY OF SSY
OF NEWLY BUILT BULKERS WILL BE DELIVERED
DURING JAN-AUG 2014 APPX 600 NEW ORDERS
PLACED FOR BULK CARRIERS OF ALL SIZES.
DESPITE WORLD ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, LOW
FREIGHT AND OVER SUPPLY OF VESSELS, NEW BULK SHIPS ARE STILL BEING ORDERED. ARE ASSET PLAYERS MAKING THE RIGHT CALL? STATS COURTESY OF SSY
DRY BULK FLEET STATISTICS AS OF 31ST AUGUST 2014 TOTAL BULK FLEET 9,950 SHIPS 737.8 MDWT AGE>= 20 YEARS 1,189 SHIPS 71.1 MDWT 9.6% NEW ORDERBOOK 1,843 SHIPS 156.4 MDWT 21.2%
JAN - AUG 2014 FLEET GREW BY 23.5 MDWT 3.3% SEP - DEC 2014 FURTHER 314 SHIPS 24.5 MDWT
AGE PROFILE OF VESSELS IN THE DRY BULK FLEET - SEPT 2014 AGE
DWT: 10 - 39,999
25 +
443
40 – 64,999 163
65 – 99,999 67
100 – 219,999
220,000 TOTAL NO + OF SHIPS
5
9
EXISTING ‘CEMENT CAPABLE’ BULK FLEET 10,000 – 65,000 DWT AGE
687
25 +
10 – 39,999 DWT
40 – 64,999 DWT
NO.
MDWT
NO.
MDWT
443
11.8
163
7.6
125
123
127
81
46
502
20 – 25
125
3.3
123
5.6
8.9
3.6
378
341
299
143
13
1,174
15 – 20
378
9.7
341
15.8
25.5
10.4
10 – 15
10 – 15
279
379
333
147
4
1,142
5 – 10
502
609
433
295
23
1,862
0–5 TOTAL
1192
1411
1132
747
102
4,583
2,919
3,026
2,391
1,417
197
9,950
NEW BUILDINGS
2014
80
121
71
30
12
314
2015
225
322
182
131
10
870
2016+
115
249
133
137
25
657
TOTAL
420
692
386
298
47
1,843
VALEMAX VERY LARGE ORE CARRIER (VLOC)
279
7.8
HYDROPOWER EFFECT ON COAL IMPORTS
CRUDE OIL PRICES
THE THREE GORGES DAM AT FULL POWER, REDUCES COAL CONSUMPTION BY 31 MILLION TONS PER YEAR. ALSO AVOIDS 100 MIL TONS GREENHOUSE GASES, 62 MIL TONS OF DUST, 1 MIL TONS OF SULPHUR DIOXIDE, 370,000 TONS OF NITRIC OXIDE AND 10,000 TONS OF CARBON MONOXIDE PER YEAR. CHINA IS INCREASING ITS HYDROPOWER CAPACITY, ‘AS CONCERNS ABOUT POLLUTION INTENSIFY, IT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECELERATION IN COAL FIRED POWER GENERATION’ (GOLDMAN SACHS)
BUNKER PRICES
SINGAPORE BUNKER QUOTES OCT 10 2014 IFO 180 US$ 527 PMT MGO
US$ 764 PMT
PRICES DOWN BY 10% IN LAST 2 MONTHS AFFECTS ECONOMICS OF SLOW STEAMING
OIL PRICES NOW BELOW US$ 90/BBL. GOOD NEWS FOR GLOBAL ECONOMY
11.0
19.3
502
13.8
609
33.4
47.2
19.2
0–5
1,192
38.0
1,411
79.6
117.6
47.9
TOTAL
2,919
84.4
3,026
161.3
245.7
THE NUMBER OF OVERAGE SHIPS NORMALLY ACCEPTING CEMENT CARGO WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED IN THE NEXT 1-2 YEARS AS THEY COME DUE FOR DEMOLITION. WHILE THE FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS WEAK, NEWER SHIPS WILL STILL ACCEPT CEMENT. IT WOULD BECOME MORE DIFFICULT IF THE MARKET GOES UP.
VALEMAX DISCHARGES AT CHINA PORT MV. VALE MALAYSIA RENAMED MV. SHANDONG DA REN
VALEMAX VESSELS 380 – 400,000 DWT LENGTH: 360-362 M BEAM : 65 M DRAUGHT : 22-23 M SPEED : 15 K
THE ‘SHADOW FLEET’ DUE TO THE HIGH COST OF BUNKER FUEL OIL,
BUNKERWORLD 180 INDEX OCT 10 2014 5 YEAR
27.1
379
5 – 10
THE SHIPPING OF IRON ORE FROM BRAZIL TO CHINA ALSO TO COMPETE WITH AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE. CHINA SHIPMENTS WERE INITIALLY BLOCKED BY COSCO AS VALE MONOPOLISED THE ROUTE. IN SEPT 2014 A DEAL WAS AGREED BY VALE TO SELL AND CHARTER BACK 4 VLOC’S FROM COSCO AND TO BUILD 10 MORE VLOC’S IN CHINA. USE OF THESE SIZE VESSELS ON THE LONGEST HAUL ROUTE HAS A HEAVY IMPACT ON MARKET CARGO. CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 70% OF SEA BORNE IRON ORE
CHINA COAL IMPORTS ARE DECLINING DUE TO
POLLUTION CONTROLS AND HYDROPOWER. IMPORTS IN 2018 FORECASTED AS 75 MIL TONS, ONLY HALF OF 2013 LEVEL. (GOLDMAN SACHS) HOWEVER GLOBAL TRADE IN COAL WILL HAVE EXPANDED BY 5 % IN 2014. (CLARKSONS) INDIA, JAPAN, KOREA WILL KEEP GROWING BUT TOTAL CAPACITY OF PANAMAX VESSELS TO RISE BY 7% IN 2014, 2% MORE THAN COAL.
7.9
15 - 20
VALE ORDERED 35 VLOC’S OF 400,000 DWT SIZE FOR
COAL TRADE
%
19.4
20 – 25
IRON ORE TRADE FLOWS
LONGEST HAUL
TOTAL MDWT
SHIPOWNERS HAVE BEEN SLOW STEAMING BULK CARRIERS BY AN AVERAGE OF 2 KNOTS. SLOW STEAMING CREATES A LATENT CAPACITY OF DRY BULK TONNAGE READY TO SPEED UP AND APPEAR ON THE MARKET AT QUITE SHORT NOTICE GIVEN THE RIGHT BUNKER PRICES. THIS ‘SHADOW SUPPLY’ OF BULK VESSELS IS ESTIMATED TO BE OVER 10% OF THE EXISTING FLEET CAPACITY AND ADDS TO THE POTENTIAL OVER SUPPLY OF BULK CARRIER TONNAGE.
IMF GLOBAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS AS AT OCT 2014 2013
2014 F
2015 F
UNITED STATES
2.2%
2.2%
3.1%
EURO AREA
- 0.4%
0.8%
1.3%
GERMANY
0.5%
1.4%
1.5%
RUSSIA
1.3%
0.2%
0.5% 2.0%
BRAZIL
2.5%
1.3%
ASEAN (5)
5.2%
4.7%
5.4%
JAPAN
1.5%
0.9%
0.8% 6.4%
INDIA
5.0%
5.6%
CHINA
7.7%
7.4%
7.1%
WORLD OUTPUT
3.3%
3.3% (-0.1)
3.8% (-0.2)
(% change from July ‘14)
REPORT 16th Asia CemenTrade Summit ECONOMIC GROWTH VS SHIPPING
RECENT FIXTURES
BALTIC DRY INDEX 2010 - 2014
'CIC Oslo' 2014 179300 dwt dely Shanghai 14/17 Oct trip via
Australia redel Japan $14500 daily - Polaris
'Capt. Antonis' 2011 82177 dwt dely Haldia ppt trip via Indonesia
redel India intn coal $8000 daily – Oldendorff
'Hai Ji' 2004 73601 dwt dely Zhanjiang 12 Oct trip via Indonesia
redel Hong Kong $5000 daily - cnr
'SFL Humber' 2011 56970 dwt dely Singapore ppt trip via
Indonesia redel India $10500 daily – MUR
CURRENT EARNINGS VERY LOW - BARELY ENOUGH TO COVER SHIP OPERATING COSTS.
'Orchid Ocean' 1994 45262 dwt dely Jakarta ppt trip via Indonesia
redel S China intention coal $7100 daily – cnr
'TBN' 75000/10 Richards Bay/EC India 05/19 Oct $12.90 fio
scale/25000shinc – Libra
'TBN' 70000/10 SE.Kalimantan/India 20/30 Sep $9.60 fio
15000shinc/30000shinc - Libra
'Aristides N.P.' 1993 58000/10 hss US Gulf/China 20/30 Oct
$44.00 fio 10000shex/8000shex - Cargill –
REPORTED 1-10 OCT 2014
WITH KIND COURTESY OF CLARKSONS
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT FUTURES
CAPESIZE FREIGHT FUTURES
PANAMAX FREIGHT FUTURES
$12,000
$12,000
$20,000 $18,000
$10,000
$10,000
$8,000
$8,000
$6,000
$6,000
$4,000
$4,000
$2,000
$2,000
$0
$0
$16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000
$6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0
PMX 4TC
SMX 6TC
CAPESIZE-5TC
06/10/2014
06/10/2014
06/10/2014
THE NEXT MAJOR FUNDAMENTAL PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION
PANAMA CANAL VS. COGH US GULF - JAPAN
POST PANAMAX CANAL RESTRICTIONS
SCHEDULED COMPLETION DECEMBER 2015 U.S. TRANSPORT SECRETARY : THE NEW CANAL “…will
have a profound impact on the way goods move around the world.” 9,116 NM
3RD SET OF WIDER LOCKS ARE BEING BUILT ON PANAMA CANAL THE OLD PANAMAX BEAM LIMIT WILL BE THING OF THE PAST
VERY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ATLANTIC - PACIFIC TRADE AND
WORLDWIDE VOYAGE ECONOMICS & SHIPPING PATTERNS
MANY CARGOES WILL MOVE IN MUCH LARGER SIZE SHIPMENTS NEW DESIGNS OF SHIPS TO MATCH NEW CANAL DIMENSIONS
MAJOR PORTS ARE ALREADY INCREASING SHIP SIZE LIMITATIONS
15,538 NM
TO ACCEPT LARGER VESSELS TRANSITING PANAMA CANAL
SOURCE : PANAMA CANAL AUTHORITY
PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION TON / MILE + FREIGHT SAVINGS
EFFECTS FOR CEMENT AND CLINKER
CONCLUSIONS
CURRENT PANAMAX ROUTE NEW ORLEANS –> TOKYO
VIA PANAMA CANAL 9,116 NM (27 DAYS @14K)
CURRENT CAPESIZE ROUTE NEW ORLEANS –> TOKYO
VIA CAPE OF GOOD HOPE 15,538 NM (46 DAYS)
IN 2016 CAPESIZE SHIPS WILL BE ABLE TO SAIL FROM
NOLA TO TOKYO VIA PANAMA (SAVING 19 SEA DAYS)
THESE SAVINGS WILL INCREASE BULK VESSEL SUPPLY
USING CAPESIZE OF 175,000 DWT WITH 150,000 T GRAIN
CARGO FROM US GULF VIA PANAMA TO CHINA WOULD GIVE BUYERS A HUGE SAVING IN FREIGHT (> US$15/T)
DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE VESSELS MAY EVEN INCREASE. THE FULL IMPACT OF PANAMA CANAL WIDENING IS NOT
THE FREIGHT MARKET IS VERY MUCH OVER SUPPLIED WITH EXISTING
BULK VESSELS PLUS THE SLOW STEAMING ‘SHADOW FLEET’. VESSEL SUPPLY WILL INCREASE AS NEW BUILDINGS ON ORDER ARE DELIVERED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT HEAVILY ON BULK FREIGHT RATES.
PORTS WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED OR BUILT
TO ACCEPT LARGER SHIPS VIA PANAMA. THIS WILL CREATE SOME NEW CEMENT DEMAND. RATES FOR HANDY - PANAMAX ‘CEMENT SIZE’ SHIPS WILL REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE WITH CURRENT OVER TONNAGE SITUATION. LOWER FREIGHT MAY IN FUTURE EVEN ALLOW CLINKER OR CEMENT TO MOVE IN CAPESIZES FROM ASIA TO U.S. / OTHER ATLANTIC PORTS.
THE PANAMA CANAL WIDENING WILL HAVE FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC
EFFECTS ON SHIPPING MARKET ECONOMICS AND TRADE PATTERNS. CURRENTLY SIZED PANAMAX VESSELS WILL START TO LOSE VIABILITY. CAPESIZE RATES WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND HEAVILY TRADED ON THE
FUTURES MARKETS. ‘PANAMAX’ MAY BE REPLACED BY THE ‘CAPEMAX’. GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH MUST INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TO FULLY
YET REFLECTED IN THE FUTURES MARKET
UTILISE THE EXCESS BULK TONNAGE. THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS OF A WORLDWIDE RECOVERY OR A NEW ‘CHINA FACTOR’. OIL PRICES FALLING COULD HOPEFULLY BE A KEY CATALYST FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY.
Mr.Farid Fazal - D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd CEMENT GROWTH POTENTIAL IN PAKISTAN AND NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES Geographical Position
A Brief about Pakistan Area: Population: Young Population: Capital City: Language: GDP per Capita PPP: Annual Growth: Major Industries:
13-14th October 2014
Presented By:
Farid Fazal Director D. G. Khan Cement Co, Limited Converted by UseOffice .Net trial. Get a license for the component.
66
Pakistan appeared on the World Map in 1947 with following geographical position. Southern Asia, bordering the Arabian Sea in the South,
881,640 sq km 180.0 million Approx Ranked as 6th largest Population in the world
35% (Under 15 yr) Islamabad Urdu, English US$2,491 3.3%
with India on the east , Iran and Afghanistan on the west and China in the north
Textiles, Surgical Instrument, Sugar, Vegetable oils, Agricultural products, Cement, Fertilizers, Steel, Chemicals, Sports Goods, Carpets
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
2
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
3
16th Asia CemenTrade Summit REPORT We are the
We have the
We are
and
and
Dr. Abdus Salam – Nobel Prize winner (Physics 1979).
6
5 D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
4
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
We have the
We have the
We have the largest Irrigation system in the World
We have the largest deep sea port at Gwadar
We have the highest railway station of Asia at Khan Mehtarazai , Baluchistan, at an elevation of about 2,221 feet 7
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
9
8 D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
Sr. No.
Operational Capacity
Name Of Unit
Cement
Year
Plants
1947
4
Capacity
Population
.5mn t
39.48mn
1955-66
4
1.0mn t
45.53mn
1969-70
4
2.7mn t
67.49mn
1972 1990
Nationalized Industry Privatized
Capacity of Cement Plants
Remarks
Location of 29 CEMENT PLANTS Marked Red
4
3.1mn t
40.5 mn
1976 to 1994 we
23
8.9mn t
118.81mn
Industry registered average growth @ 7% per annum up to mid 90s.
2000
23
16.38mn t
140.5mn
2012
29
44.77mn t
176.0mn
Total active Cement Plants are 24. 19 plants in North and 5 Plants in South.
(5 Plants are closed)
were importing Cement
1
Askari Cement Limited - Wah
1,102,500
2
Askari Cement - Nizampur
1,575,000
3
Bestway Cement Limited - Hattar Bestway Cement Limited - Chakwal Bestway-Mustehkum Cement Limited - Hattar
1,086,750
6
Cherat Cement Company Limited-Nowshera
1,102,500
7
Dandot Cement Limited - Jehlum
8
Dewan Hattar Cement Limited - Hattar
1,134,000
29
44.77mnt
D.G.Khan Cement Limited - D.G.Khan
2,110,500
D.G.Khan Cement Limited - Chakwal
2,110,500
11
Fauji Cement Company Limited - Fateh Jang
Fecto Cement Limited - Sangjani
13
Flying Cement Limited - Lilla
1,197,000
14
GharibWal Cement Limited - Jehlum
2,110,500
15
Kohat Cement Company Limited - Kohat
2,677,500
16
Source: APCMA
DEMAND
2002-03
7.94%
.57
2003-04
8.14
-2.26%
.91
10.17
8.38
3.00%
1.79
1995-96
10.17
9.43
12.54%
.74
1996-97
12.50
9.65
2.33%
2.86
8.89
8.32
1993-94
9.05
1994-95
GROWTH
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
YEAR
1992-93
1997-98
15.53
9.19
-4.73%
6.34
1998-99
16.41
9.62
4.65%
6.79
1999-00
16.38
9.94
3.29%
6.44
2000-01
15.53
9.93
-0.04%
5.60
2001-02
16.10
9.94
0.06%
6.16
Lafarge Pakistan Cement Co Ltd - Chakwal
2,047,500
19
Pioneer Cement Limited - Khushab
2,030,250
Reference :APCMA
Capacity
DEMAND
GROWTH
Surplus Mn. Ton
16.32
11.41
14.80%
4.91
17.28
13.66
19.75%
3.62
2004-05
17.91
16.35
19.69%
1.56
2005-06
20.96
18.55
13.46%
2.40
2006-07
30.62
24.26
30.78%
6.36
2007-08
37.80
30.29
5
Thatta Cement Limited - Thatta
945,000 1,795,500 787,500
3,600,000 488,250
24.86%
7.51
2008-09
42.41
31.31
3.34%
11.10
2009-10
45.47
34.21
9.26%
11.26
2010-11
42.50
31.43
-8.13%
11.07
2011-12
44.77
32.52
3.45%
2012-13
44.77
33.43
2.82%
11.34
2013-14
44.64
34.28
12.00
2.54%
10.36
Pioneer 4.0%
70%
10.00
50%
8.00
30%
6.00
10%
4.00
-10%
Fauji 7.9% Mustehkum 2.5%
AC W+N 5.7%
DG Khan 11.3%
Bestway 11.1%
14
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
92-93
94-95
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Growth from last year
95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99
99-00
Capacity
17.91
20.96
30.62
37.80
42.41
45.47
42.50
44.77
44.77
44.76
Domestic Sales
14.79
17.04
21.03
22.57
20.32
23.56
22.00
23.94
25.06
26.14
4.33%
Export
1.57
1.51
3.22
7.72
10.98
10.64
9.42
8.57
8.37
8.14
-2.84%
Total
16.35
18.55
24.26
30.29
31.30
34.21
31.43
32.51
33.43
34.28
2.54 %
Utilization
91.32%
88.54%
79.23 %
80.14%
73.83%
75.25%
73.95%
72.63%
74.68%
76.79%
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05
05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12
12-13
Source: APCMA
13-14
0.00 D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd 16
Al Abbas 1.8% Thatha Flying 1.1% 1.4% Dandot 0.6%
Lucky 15.8%
2.00
Surplus
Dewan Htr Cherat 2.3% 2.5% Dewan Fecto 2.4% 1.9%
Maple Leaf 8.0%
91-92
2005
44,642,250 12
Kohat 6.1%
12.25
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
7,616,250
Pakcem 4.7%
Year
90%
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
Lucky Cement Ltd, - Indus Highway, Karachi
Attock 4.6%
93-94
Growth
Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd – Hub, Lasbela Dewan Cement Limited - Dhabeji
4
MARKET SHARE 2013-14 Ghb.wal 4.5%
14.00
Cap Utilization
Al-Abbas Cement Limited - Nooriabad, Dadu
2 3
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
17
Surplus 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 0.7 2.9 6.3 6.8 6.4 5.6 6.2 4.9 3.6 1.6 2.4 6.4 7.5 11.1 11.3 11.1 12.3 12.8 10.4
15
Source: APCMA
Pakistan
110%
-30%
3,370,500
37,026,000
Grand Total (North+South)
13
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
Capacity Utilization, Growth and Surplus of Cement Industry
3,786,000
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited - Daudkhel
18
Sub Total (South Zone) 11
1.18
7.71
Lucky Cement Limited - Pezu
17
South Zone
Surplus
8.89
819,000
Source: APCMA
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
Capacity
3,433,500
12
Sub Total (North Zone)
10
YEAR
504,000
9
180.0mn
1991-92
3,600,000
10
1
2014
1,228,500
4 5
Surplus quantity and export
Export
Pakistan Cement Industry (In million tons)
14 12 10 8
0.11 0.43 1.12 1.57 1.51 3.19 7.72 10.75 10.7 9.41 8.92 8.45 8.14
8.14
6 4 2 0
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
18
67
REPORT 16th Asia CemenTrade Summit Export of Cement and Clinker
Pakistan Cement Industry Financial
10.9810.66
Years
1.57 1.51
YEAR Source: APCMA
430,332
-
-
41,500
471,822
342.53%
2003-2004
1,118,293
-
-
-
1,118,293
137.02%
2004-2005
1,407,900
-
157,270
1,565,170
39.96%
2005-2006
1,413,994
-
91,165
1,505,159
-3.83%
2006-2007
1,725,526
-
1,096,995
390,973
3,213,494
113.50%
2007-2008
2,777,826
378,441
408,231
3,045,995 1,106,127
7,716,620
140.13%
2008-2009
3,148,306
461,441
167,267
6,061,035
908,690
10,752,486
39.34%
2009-2010
4,013,670
523,597
199,371
5,637,163
283,436
10,657,235
-0.89%
2010-2011
4,725,165
389,105
200,999
3,910,675
200,169
9,426,112
-11.55%
2011-2012
4,715,109
605,453
3,247,268
-
8,567,830
-9.12%
2012-2013
4,404,634
431,433 50,781
3,487,255
8,374,103
-2.26%
2013-2014
3,652,196
630,792 46,893
3,806,646
8,136,527
-2.84%
-
20
EOA
Others 2013 World Production
Ref: Global cement rpt 10th edition by international Cement review
GDP Growth in Pakistan Economic survey of Pakistan
2,300.0 280.0 77.8 75.0 70.0 70.0 65.0 65.0 53.0 50.0 49.0 46.0 44.6 36.0 58.0 35.0 34.0 29.0 20.7 597.0 4,055.10
Year
25
1,800
Price Rs./ton
1,683
1,600
1,581
1,400 1,200
1,000
911 770 744
800
616
600
Jun-05
5600
93.33
120
Jun-06
5730
94.71
100
Jun-07
4375
72.92
Jun-08
6140
89.90
Jun-09
6640
81.57
Jun-10
5940
69.47
Jun-11
7640
88.84
Jun-12
8440
96.90
June-13
9660
93.78
June-14
9830
98.30
80
93.33 94.71 77.5
89.9 72.92
81.57
88.84
129 108
96.9 93.78 98.3
69.47
60 40 20 0
26
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
Nigeria
Pakistan
USA
India
Indonesia
Japan
France
Mexico
Brazil
Thailand
Spain
24
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
77.50
232 202 191
-
Price $/ton
4650
438 402 367 342 330 329 327 300
200
Price $/ton
Jun-04
560 554 546 524 498 489
400
23
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
22
GDP Growth GDP Per Years Rate Capita $ 1990 5.42 1991 7.57 1992 2.10 1993 4.37 1994 5.06 1995 6.60 1996 1.70 1997 3.49 1998 4.18 1999 3.91 2000 2000 1.96 2000 2001 3.11 2100 2002 4.73 2100 2003 7.48 2200 2004 8.96 2200 2005 5.82 2400 2006 6.81 2600 2007 3.68 2400 2008 1.21 2500 2009 4.09 2400 2010 4.80 2500 2011 2.40 2851 2012 3.70 2800 2013 3.37 3100 2014 3.31 2854
Mil Tones
Russia
People's Republic of China India United States Iran Brazil Turkey Russia Viet Nam Japan Saudi Arabia South Korea Egypt Pakistan Mexico Indonesia Thailand Germany Italy Spain
Germany
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_ce ment_production
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Poland
Rank Region/ Country
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
21
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
Here is a list of top Cement producing countries in 2013 based on World Cement Report. (Jan 2013)
According to the Global Cement Report 3,967 million tons (Mt) were sold in 2013 topping the 3,730 million tons sold in 2012, which was a growth of 6.3%, strongly reversing a slowdown of 4.0% the previous year. Worldwide Cement consumption is forecast to reach 4157 Mt in the current year 2014. China dominates world cement statistics, consuming more than a third of the global output – or 2,160 million tones India, the closest rival to China for economic growth was the second largest consumer at 242Mt United States, is now the third largest consumer, From 69Mt in 2009, its consumption has increased to 79Mt in 2012. Turkey was the world's leading exporter of cement and clinker, with sales of 19Mt in 2010, but has fallen behind and now comes at second position with 13 MT in 2012 Iran is now in first position with export of 14 Mt in 2012. China slipped to third position exporting 12 Mt in 2012. Iraq is the largest cement and clinker importer, with over 11 million tons of imports in 2012, followed by Bangladesh at 9 million tons and the USA at 7 million in the year 2012.
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
-
Countries ranked by Cement production
GLOBAL CEMENT CONSUMPTION AND FUTURE MARKET OUTLOOK
2002-2003
Italy
100.00%
Morocco
106,620
Egypt
-
Algeria
-
Afghanistan India Sri Lanka Maldives Djibouti Somalia Tanzania Kenya Uganda Mozambique South Africa Madagascar Comoros Seychelles Iraq Ethiopia
Vietnam
Incr/(Decr)
-
malaysia
Exports
106,620
Iran
Via Sea
2001-2002
19
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
Via Sea
Turkey
0.11 0.43
By Via Sea Rail/Road
%age
|-------------------------------Quantity in Metric Tons-------------------------------|
8.57 8.37 8.14
3.23
1.12
Via Land
Total
China
9.42 7.72
India
|---Clinker---|
Other Other Countries Countries
Afghanistan
South Korea
12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
|------------------Cement-----------------|
Saudi Arabia
Mn.Tonns
Exports
The cement sector is contributing more than Rs 38 billion to the national exchequer in the form of taxes. Cement industry is also serving the nation by providing job opportunities and presently more than 1,000,000 persons are employed directly or indirectly by the industry. Foreign exchange Social Benefits
27
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
Carbon Credit:
USING ALTERNATIVE FUEL Recent hike in the prices of coal and petroleum products in the International market and constant devaluation of Pakistani Currency has compelled companies to have to look into a alternative fuels. After a thorough study we decided to use different industrial waste as fuel.
Under the UN CDM program Alternate fuel and waste heat recovery projects, D. G. Khan Cement have been registered to qualify for carbon credits.
1. 7400tons plant at Hub, Baluchistan which is a distance 35km from Karachi Port.
2. D.G. Khan is putting up a 5000 tons/day plant at D.G. Khan.
•RDF (Refuse Derived Fuel) •TDF (Tyre Derived Fuel) •Agriculture Waste •Industrial Waste
Waste Heat Recovery Severe shortage and periodic rise in electricity tariff in our country has forced the Cement Industry to look into possible alternative ways of power generation. Therefore some companies have implemented waste heat recovery plants and getting outputs of up to 10 MW.
29
28 D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
30
D.G. Khan Cement Co, Ltd
Mr.Fauzi Ichsan - Standard Chartered Bank ASIA’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GLOBAL PICTURE: BETTER PROSPECTS
• Global GDP growth rising, risk of global financial crisis diminishing • Slower China’s GDP growth insufficient to slow global GDP growth
INDONESIA: A NEW ERA Fauzi Ichsan Managing Director & Senior Economist October 2014
Document Title
0
• Normalization of US monetary policy – end of QE in Q4-2014, US policy rate to rise in Q2-2015 • Policy interest rates in developed markets to rise in H2-2015, following the US • US shale gas revolution to increase global energy supply and limit future rise in energy prices
INDONESIA IN GLOBAL CONTEXT: “WORLD’S 16TH LARGEST ECONOMY CHALLENGED”
Document Title
1
Document Title
2
16th Asia CemenTrade Summit REPORT GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: BRIGHTER ROAD AHEAD
GLOBAL BOND YIELDS: INDICATING DIMINISHED RISK OF FINANCIAL CRISIS End of Quantitative Easing policy by US Federal Reserve likely to raise US bond yields further
Despite China’s slowdown, global GDP growth is rising
The end of Euro financial crisis has reduced sovereign bond yields of troubled Euro countries
Tapering of quantitative easing
Source: Bloomberg
Document Title
GLOBAL INTEREST RATE FORECASTS: NORMALIZATION OF US INTEREST RATE TO BEGIN IN 2015 Generally, despite end of QE in US, global rates are likely to remain low until 2016
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
Current
Q3
Q4
Q1-2015
Q2
Q3
Q4
US
-2.6
3.0
1.8
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.3
USD (FFTR)
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Euro zone
-4.1
1.7
1.6
2012
-0.7
-0.4
0.7
1.5
2.6
USD (10yr UST yield)
2.39
2.49
2.75
2.90
3.00
3.15
3.25
Japan
-5.2
3.9
-0.7
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.5
China
9.2
10.3
9.3
7.7
7.7
7.4
7.0
7.0
JPY (O/N)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
India
8.0
8.5
6.2
4.5
4.7
5.3
5.8
6.0
GBP (Base rate)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
South Korea
0.3
6.2
3.6
2.0
3.0
3.8
3.6
3.5
Indonesia
4.6
6.2
6.5
6.3
5.8
5.3
5.5
5.8
Thailand
-2.3
7.8
0.1
6.4
2.9
2.7
6.0
6.5
Malaysia
-1.7
7.2
5.1
5.6
4.7
5.9
5.3
5.1
Singapore
-0.8
14.5
5.3
1.3
3.9
3.9
4.6
4.5
World
-0.7
5.3
3.3
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.4
3.7
EUR (Refi)
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
AUD (RBA call)
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.50
3.75
CNY(Policy rate)
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
IDR (BI rate)
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
8.00
8.00
8.00
Source: Standard Chartered Research
3
GLOBAL COMMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS: US SHALE ENERGY REVOLUTION A GLOBAL GAME CHANGER Rising energy production and falling energy imports in the US to limit future rise in global energy prices
Shrinking US current account deficit and likely higher US policy rate to support USD in global FX market
Policy rates in emerging markets with large current account deficits to remain high
Q2
Q3
Q4
Trend
Q4
Q1-2015
Q2
Q3
Q4
Trend
Q3-2014
1.26
1.26
1.27
1.27
1.25
1.25
1.25
↓
Crude oil (NYMEX WTI) – USD/bl
92
103
106
98
102
100
↓
USD/JPY
108.9
109.7
110.0
113.0
115.0
110.0
110.0
↔
Crude oil (Brent) – USD/bl
95
110
114
106
112
108
↓
AUD/USD
0.87
0.87
0.88
0.87
0.86
0.85
0.84
↓
65
77
77
76
76
79
↑
GBP/USD
1.62
1.62
1.60
1.55
1.55
1.54
1.60
↔
Coal (Newcastle) – USD/tonne Gold (spot) – USD/oz
81
1,240
1,200
1,130
1,130
1,175
↓
15.5
15.5
15.5
↑
↓
Rice– USD/cwt
1,062
1,055
1,040
1,050
1,070
1,075
1,045
↓
CPO – MYR/tonne
12,135
12,188
12,200
12,300
12,500
12,200
11,900
↓
1.27
1.28
1.28
1.28
1.29
1.27
1.25
↓
USD/CNY
USD/IDR
Q1-2015
Q3-2014
Current
EUR/USD
USD/KRW
Q4
6.14
USD/SGD
6.14
6.09
6.05
6.02
5
Document Title
4
GLOBAL CURRENCY FORECASTS: GENERAL USD STRENGTH INTO 2016 EXCEPT IN ASIA
GLOBAL POLICY INTEREST RATES: RATES IN DEVELOPED MARKETS TO REMAIN LOW
0.05
Source: Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
Policy rates in developed markets, including the US, Euro area and UK, to remain low in 2014
0.05
6.00
5.95
12.7
15.0
15.5
2,174
2,300
2,400
2,300 Source: 2,450 2,500 ↑ Standard Chartered Research
Source: Standard Chartered Research Source: Bloomberg 8
Document Title
6
Document Title
Document Title
7
INDONESIA IN 2014: MOVING TO NEW EQUILIBRIUM
GLOBAL ENERGY SECTOR: US SHALE ENERGY REVOLUTION CAPS GLOBAL ENERGY PRICES
Global economic crisis led to sharp fall in commodity prices
INDONESIA IN LOCAL CONTEXT: “AT CROSS-ROADS”
2010
2011
2012
2013
1) GDP growth
6.2
6.5
6.3
5.8
5.3
2) Inflation (year-end)
7.0
3.8
4.3
8.4
2014F
5.0
2015F 5.5 8.0
3) Inflation (average)
5.1
5.4
4.3
7.0
6.1
6.6
4) USD/IDR (year-end)
8,996
9,069
9,793
12,171
11,200
11,900
5) USD/IDR (average)
9,078
8,768
9,410
10,761
11,800
12,200
6) BI rate (year-end)
6.50
6.00
5.75
7.50
7.50
8.00
7) Yield of 10Y government bond
7.61
6.10
5.20
8.45
8.00
8.25
8) Fiscal deficit (% of GDP)
-0.6
-1.1
-1.9
-2.2
-2.5
9) Trade account (USD bn)
30.6
35.3
8.6
6.2
10.0
13.0
10) Current account (USD bn)
5.1
1.7
-24.4
-28.4
-24.9
-20.0
96.4
110.1
112.8
99.4
115.0
125.0
11) FX reserves (USD bn)
-2.0
Sources: Bank Indonesia, National Statistics Agency, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
9
Document Title
Document Title
10
HOUSEHOLD DEBTS: STILL VERY LOW
COMPONENTS OF JCI: DOMINANCE OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
NEW EQUILIBRIUM GROWTH RATE: 5.3-5.8% YEARLY GROWTH IS “NEW NORMAL” VS. 6.0-6.5% IN PAST
11
Document Title
Source: Bloomberg
Historical GDP growth
Household debt (18% of GDP) in Indonesia (where household consumption generates 55% of GDP) is one of the lowest in Asia
Household debt as proportion of income (26%) in Indonesia is also one of the lowest in Asia, given low penetration of the banking sector
Source: Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
13
POLITICS IN 2015: WITHOUT PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY JOKOWI’S OPTIONS LIMITED
COMPARATIVE COUNTRY RISK INDICATORS (2013): “INDONESIA BETTER THAN SOME INVESTMENT-GRADE COUNTRIES”
GOVERNMENT AND CORPORATE DEBTS: STILL AT SAFE LEVELS
Political party Government debt (25% of GDP) in Indonesia is one of the lowest in Asia, supporting investment grade sovereign rating by Moody’s and Fitch
Corporate debt (19% of GDP) in Indonesia is also one of the lowest in Asia, given strong corporate profitability and internal cashflow
Russia
Brazil
India
Indonesia
% of parliamentary seats
Thailand
S&P rating
BBB
BBB+
BBB
BBB
BBB-
BB+
PDIP (Jokowi)
18.95
19.46
Sovereign CDS (31 December 2013)
204.1
129.9
165.2
193.8
270.5
236.9
Golkar (Prabowo)
14.75
16.25
GDP growth (Constant prices, %)
2.0
3.0
1.5
2.3
4.7
5.6
Gerindra (Prabowo)
11.81
13.04
Demokrat (Undecided)
Inflation (Annual average, %)
5.8
2.2
6.8
5.8
6.0
7.0
Public debt (% of GDP)
38.8
41.7
8.4
65.0
62.4
25.2
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
-4.2
-2.6
-0.5
-3.3
-5.0
-2.2
10.19
10.89
PKB (Jokowi)
9.04
8.75
PAN (Prabowo)
7.59
8.39
PKS (Prabowo)
6.79
7.14
Current account (% of GDP)
-6.3
-0.4
2.1
-3.1
-2.4
-3.7
Nasdem (Jokowi)
6.72
6.96
ST foreign debt * (% of FX reserves)
53.2
37.5
19.2
9.4
37.9
57.8
PPP (Prabowo)
6.53
6.25
FX reserves (USD billion)
47.3
Hanura (Jokowi)
5.26
2.86
100.00
100.00
159.0
509.6
375.8
268.6
99.4
Total
* as of end Q2-2013
Document Title
% of electoral votes
South Africa
• President Jokowi’s coalition of political parties only controls 38% of parliamentary seats (2014-19 period) • To have parliamentary majority, Jokowi needs at least two parties from Prabowo camp to defect (likely Golkar and PPP in 2015) • Jokowi’s first 12 months to be dominated by parliamentary hackling
• Jokowi’s plan to streamline the government likely postponed • Jokowi’s first cabinet likely to see reshuffle before 2019
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Standard Chartered Research
14
Document Title
Source: Bloomberg
12
Document Title
Document Title
17
15
Document Title
16
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
69
REPORT 16th Asia CemenTrade Summit The New World Order
JOKOWI’S CHALLENGES: GLOBAL AND LOCAL
LIKELY POLICIES OF NEW GOVERNMENT: 2015 AND 2016 WILL BE YEARS OF CONSOLIDATION
• Sticky global commodity prices given shale energy revolution in the US
• New government to hike fuel prices at latest in Q2-2015 but there is risk it will do so in Q4-2014
• Large fuel subsidy that increases fiscal deficit closer to constitutional limit of 3% of GDP
• World Bank and Jokowi’s economic team proposed two options: 70% or 45% hike in Nov-2014 – latter option more feasible
• Large and structural current account deficit (CAD) exacerbated by ban on raw mineral exports
• BI likely to respond by hiking BI rate by 50bps to 8% - Policy hawks in BI and MoF prepared to see BI rate at 8.5%
• Given structural CAD, imports and thus GDP growth must be capped below 6% p.a. • End of QE and normalization of US interest rate policy make financing Indonesia’s fiscal and current account deficits more challenging in future
• Jokowi government likely to manage down expectations on GDP growth in both 2015 and 2016
USD trn
2000
USD trn
2010
USD trn
2020
USD trn
2030
United States
5.9
United States
10.3
United States
15.0
United States
23.5
China
53.8
2
Japan
3.1
Japan
4.7
China
5.9
China
21.9
United States
38.5
3
Germany
1.7
Germany
1.9
Japan
5.5
Japan
6.1
India
15.0
4
France
1.2
UK
1.5
Germany
3.3
Germany
5.1
Japan
9.3
5
Italy
1.1
France
1.3
France
2.5
India
4.5
Germany
7.4
China
3.9
1.0
USD trn
6
UK
1.2
UK
2.3
Brazil
Brazil
6.3
7
Canada
0.6
Italy
1.1
Brazil
2.1
France
3.9
UK
5.8
8
Spain
0.5
Canada
0.7
Italy
2.0
UK
3.7
France
5.7
9
Brazil
0.5
Brazil
0.6
Canada
1.6
Italy
2.7
Indonesia
4.7
10
China
0.4
Mexico
0.6
Russia
1.5
Russia
2.6
Russia
4.6
• Without changing Mining Law/2009, implementation of ban on mineral exports likely watered-down • Negotiation with international mining companies to end arbitration suits
• New coalition government without parliamentary majority that could lose momentum – contrast to PM Narendra Modi’s India
1990 1
Sources: Standard Chartered Research, IMF Document Title
18
Document Title
19
Document Title
Mr.Fabian Munz - HC Trading COAL VS PETCOKE – FUEL CHOICE FOR CEMENT PRODUCERS Global footprint with up to 40 % sales in emerging markets
HeidelbergCement in Figures Coal vs. Petcoke Fuel Choice for Cement Producers CemTech, 13 – 14.10, Jakarta HeidelbergCement Trading Fabian R. Munz Head of Fuel Trading
Cement and grinding plants
Group HQ: Heidelberg, Germany
One of the world’s largest manufacturers of building materials
118 million tonnes cement capacity, aggregates reserves 19 billion tonnes
Aggregates
Employees: ~55,000
566 aggregates,103 cement and grinding, 1,353 ready-mixed concrete and 106 asphalt plants
Metropolitan areas
Locations: ~2,500 in more than 40 countries: ~600 sand, gravel and hard rock ~100 cement and grinding ~1,300 ready-mixed concrete ~100 asphalt
Approximately 7M mt solid fuel (coal & petcoke) burn per annum
Oslo
Global Revenues of €12.9 billion 52,500 employees in 2,500 locations in more than 40 countries
Vancouver Seattle San Francisco
Global market leader in aggregates and a prominent player in the fields of cement, concrete and other downstream activities
Edmonton Chicago
London
Toronto New York
Dallas
Los Angeles San Diego
Stockholm St. Petersburg Moscow
Frankfurt / Munich Istanbul
Atlanta Houston
10% 8% 26% Fabian R. Munz @All rights reserved
Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia, 13.10
HC Trading Global Flows
HC Trading in brief HC Trading is the “International Trading Arm” of the HeidelbergCement Group with a primary target to secure competitive supply and achieve most cost efficient fuel solution (steam coal and petcoke) to group and non-group companies
Total shipments: 18.5M mt
3rd party fuel trading division was established in 2006 to further increase competitiveness of solid fuel supply by applying leverage through higher volume, improved logistics, access to new sources and assist for the timing of purchases by providing market intelligence
3rd Party Fuel Trading Volume: 5 M mt
Destinations: 115
Global Network : Annual fuel trading volume performed to 3rd party customer reaches 5 million tons involving the network of more than 30 countries worldwide in sourcing, supply and operation.
Load ports: 62
HC Trading: 55 staff & 7 offices across the globe
Solution Partner : Through the expertise in cementious area, HC Trading provides additional solution in fuel usage to clients in aiming efficiency and cost-effective options mainly to cement producers.
NE & SSA 9%
Middle East
14.0
11% 18%
12.0 10.0 8.0
41%
21%
6.0 4.0
ASIA
Sources: UBS Research,
with a combined share of +40% of all international coal imports
Relative
importance of traditional markets including Europe and Japan is diminishing as alternative fuel usage increases
MED
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia, 13.10
Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia, 13.10
International Thermal Coal Prices
World Petcoke Supply World Petcoke Production
Fuel Grade Petcoke Supply by Region
World Petcoke Demand Petcoke Demand by Sector
in M mt 180
Calcinable
160
Fuel Grade
in M mt 160
140
140
120
Major Int. Thermal Coal Indices
100
120
80
100
60
0
60 40
1995
2008
2010
2012
2014
20
2016
0
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Sources: Argus, Jacobs, HeidelbergCement AG, Sources: Jacobs, HeidelbergCement AG, Ohters
Global petcoke production is set to increase by +20% from currently abt. 130M mt to
160M mt in 2017
About 71% of global petcoke production is fuel grade, balance calcined. Americas play a dominant role with about 70% of the world’s fuel grade petcoke
Fuel Grade Petcoke Prices FOB US Gulf Market observations last 12monhts Petcoke prices while showing some signs of correction have not (yet) followed the severe correction in the steam coal market partly also supported by a low Front Haul Freight Market As a consequence, Chinese demand has largely diminished, India has steped in to absorb much of that volume driven by domestic transportation cost favouring the higher CV petcoke vs. coal Spread between Mid Sulpher, +50 HGI and High Sulpher 30 – 45 HGI widening again driven by continuous supply disruptions in Venezuela and excess availability of high sulpher petcoke
Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia, 13.10
Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia, 13.10
Petcoke vs. Coal CFR China API8 (5500NAR) vs. MS Petcoke 4.5%S,
a share of about 28% of the global petcoke consumption
Dominant demand remains in Far East – Asia, particularly China, Japan and India Impact on petcoke demand from Asia in a rising freight market?
production of which 75% originates out of the US
Source: Argus/McCloskey, HC
Sources: Jacobs, Argus, HeidelbergCement AG, Ohters
The Cement Industry remains the single largest consumer of fuel grade petcoke with
Comments
Comments
API2 (Atlantic) vs. gC Newc (Pacific) Spread
Petcoke Demand by Region
Permenant Storage Other Industry Cement Iron & Steel Pow er Generation Calcining
80
40 20
Sources: Jacobs, HeidelbergCement AG, Ohters
Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia, 13.10
Thermal Coal Importers
China & India have emerged as the leading steam coal importer over the last 8 years
N&S Americas
2.0 97
Sydney
~40% Emerging market exposure
ranked second
18.0
96
Brisbane Melbourne
Indonesia’s thermal coal exports volumes are more than double that of Australia
16.0
Market observations last 12monhts International thermal coal prices are at 5 year lows driven by a large amount of oversupply Pacific market is particularly weak pushing the differential between CFR ARA and FOB Newcastle prices to currently about minus USD 8/mt Very weak demand in Asia, particularly China, is pushing Australian coal into India and Europe which was not seen for many years
Perth
Eastern Europe – Central Asia Africa – Mediterranean Basin
Sources: UBS Research
= HC Trading Office = Representative Office = Fuels = Cementitious 20.0
Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia, 13.10
Jakarta
Asia-Oceania
Thermal Coal Exporters
-
Hong Kong Kuala Lumpur
World Thermal Coal Supply & Demand
Comments
Guangzhou
Singapore
North America Western and Northern Europe
22%
34%
Delhi Mumbai Bangalore
Turnover by Group areas
Petcoke vs. Coal CFR India API4 + Freight vs. HS Petcoke
API8 (55NAR) vs. HS Petcoke (6.5%S)
API12 (55NAR) vs. HS Petcoke (6.5%S)
USG Fuel Grade Petcoke Prices (USD/mt FOB USG)
*: Petcoke price adjusted to 5500NAR Sources: Group Energy Purchasing, Jacobs, Reuters, In-house Research
Mid Sulpher – High Sulpher USG Petcoke Spread
70
Sources: Group Energy Purchasing, Jacobs, Reuters, In-house Research
*: Petcoke price adjusted to 6000NAR * Freight for RSA – India is based on estimate Sources: Group Energy Purchasing, Argus, In-house Research
Some import volume remains mostly to industries for which coal is no alternative
such as glass, fertilizer and white cement producers
are competitive in India
Comments
Comments
in the last 18months reducing China’s imports sharply
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
relatively lower for petocke than coal due to the higher CV
competitive including required discounts due to inferior quality
most end-users, discounts are not attractive enough to use significant amounts of petcoke
Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia, 13.10
Additional attractiveness of petcoke due to high inland logistics cost which are
As coal prices continue to fall, petcoke prices have to correct as well to stay
High sulpher petcoke has been marginally competitive in the last 12months but for
Sources: Group Energy Purchasing, Jacobs
*: Petcoke price adjusted to 5500NAR * API5 + Freight (e) is used prior to May 2014 for API12 values Sources: Argus/McCloskey, In house research
When compared to premium South-African coal (RB1), high sulpher petcoke prices
Mid Sulpher Petcoke prices have not been competitive to 55NAR grade steam coal
(USD/mt FOB USG) Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia, 13.10
*: Petcoke price adjusted to 5500NAR
Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia, 13.10
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16th Asia CemenTrade Summit REPORT Petcoke vs. Coal - Conclusions
Petcoke vs. coal – a summary Disadvantages Milling – Sufficient mill capacity (VM/2=residue on 90 micron sieve) – Vertical mills – poor performance at residues <10% because bed depth on table low – Increase power demand for milling cement using 100% petcoke vs. 100% coal
Kiln operations – Main burner flame – more air to burn petcoke – lower efficiency
Sulphatisation – Higher sulpher loading on kiln – evaporation – sulpher cycle – Hard burning raw mix (high temp) - only low sulphatisation tolerated
Additional storage and blending cost, poor blending impacts on clinker quality
Working capital due to larger shipment quantities
No price hedging tools for petcoke
Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia, 13.10
A wide range of factors must be taken into consideration when
Advantages
Transportation – Plants located remotely from seaports with high domestic transportation cost benefit using petcoke due to relative lower transportation cost per GJ – Capacity constraints on inland transportation as a whole Quality – Petcoke has a high NCV and can be used as a sweetener in a blend with high CV coal – High sulpher in petcoke can be used to offset alkali in limestone Petcoke usually carries a significant discount to premium quality steam coals
deciding to use petcoke or coal. A simple CFR comparison adjusted for CV is insufficient
Most (European) cement plants would consider switching to coal
if the discount of petcoke is less than 15 – 20% to coal in addtion to CV
At current prices, petcoke is not competitve to coal in most
countries in Asia
Fabian R. Munz CemTech Asia
Sources: Group Energy Purchasing
Mr.Ryan Dat - Vissai Cement Group BOOSTING VIETNAM’S CEMENT INDUSTRY THROUGH EFFECTIVE EXPORT STRATEGY
BOOSTING VIETNAM’S CEMENT INDUSTRY THROUGH EFFECTIVE EXPORT STRATEGY
OVERVIEW 73 million tons of cement in Vietnam are produced in 03 main regions: + Northern: 70%
+ Central: 18% + Southern: 12%
Vietnam Cement Capacity ranked # 9th in the World, # 3rd in Asia
and # 1st in ASEAN VN population is ranked # 15th - Geographical area ranked # 66th in the World (Source: The World Factbook – CIA.gov)
Presented by: Mr. Ryan Dat CEO - VISSAI IMEX
DEMAND/SUPPLY 1H - 2014
WHOLE 2014 ESTIMATES
Total Capacity up to June of 2014
2014 estimates
> 70 production lines with designed Capacity ~73 miot per annum
Northern: surplus 29.1 miot Central:
Production and Consumption in first Half of 2014 9% compares to 2013 Lime stones
Production: 34 million tons – Local Demand: 21.8 million tons – Export: 11.25 million tons –
8% compares to 2013
Northern: ~ 55 USD/ton
Central: ~ 70 USD/ton Southern: ~ 90 USD/ton
Movement of surplus capacity Export: ~20 miot
11% compares to 2013
Transhipment: ~4.8 miot
(9.14 mt clinker – 2.11 mt cement) Average Local Cement Price
surplus 3.6 miot
Southern: deficit 7.9 miot
Pozzolana
2014F Capacity output Northern: 49.7 miot Central: 14.3 miot Southern: 6.3 miot
Sources: VNCA
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REPORT 16th Asia CemenTrade Summit MAJOR EXPORT REGIONS & PLAYERS – 1H 2014
MAJOR EXPORT REGIONS & PLAYERS
11.25 miot export in the first half of 2014 included: + Clinker: 9.14 miot + Cement: 2.11 miot
Exporter
1
Volume ( thousand ton)
Market share (%)
2.245
19.96
VISSAI
5.9
Indonesia Taiwan
0.7
Philippines
0.4
0.4
Hong Kong Australia
VICEM
1.456
12.94
1.085
9.64
4
CHINFON
1.014
9.01
Reunion
5
Thang Long Vina
867
7.71
Togo
6
Others
4.583
40.74
0.34 0.3
Other countries
LUCKY
Most of cement factories are far from the sea/loading port (from 100 kms-400 kms) Barges are the only means of transportation from factories to anchorage. Harsh weather: rainy& flood seasons prevent barging operations. Complicated river traffic systems: channels, bridges, low tide Stevedores are less equipped and normal standard services. Shortage of multi modal logistics to satisfy customer’s various requests
1.2 0.86
Malaysia
2
LOGISTICS
10.1
Bangladesh
3
Source: statistics from Vietnam Customs department
EXP.VOLUME (Mt)
Pacific Asia
China
Top Exporters of Clinker & Cement in 1H 2014 No
REGIONS
1.15
Mozambique
0.3
Ghana
0.2 0.2 0.12
Others
0.33 Source: Statistics from Vietnam Customs department
LOAD PORTS CONDITIONS Load ports: 228 load ports from 29 provinces all over Vietnam have draft from 09m 20m. Suitable for many types of vessel come to load/unload cargo. (Source: 1433/ QĐ –BGTVT) Cam Pha Port: 65 anchorage points mainly for coal and clinker Hon Gai Port: 26 anchorage points used for cement in bagged, gypsum, fertilizer.. Cai Lan and Hai phong Port: Cement containers
DIFFICULITIES
CHALLENGES:
Economic recession: shrink budget for infrastructure and construction
Political conflicts also from unstable worldwide relationship
Northern – Central: Harsh weather: rainy and flood seasons
Natural disasters: Harsher and unpredictable
Time loss in delivery process
Regulations on Environmental protection: strictly requested
Machines, Equipments and Technologies are invested at middle level
Higher demand for quality cement/clinker and services
Labor awareness, creativeness: Low Traditional model of management
Advanced technology have not been well applied in production and business management
Competitors almost use pricing as key tool in market
Corruption and Fraud Government subsidies may end without notices
Corruption and fraud
Strong budget requested for R&D in production
Hard to forecast local supply and demand
Professional strategy outset is needed to increase relationship strength among Producer – Trader – Buyer
EXPORT STRATEGY
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Overcome current difficulties and challenges Attract potential customers, searching niche market as long as pinning traditional markets Create unique products or focusing on high quality cement and clinker. Reliable production! Engage in more long term contract – big volume Compromise unnecessary competitions among Exporters ; increase quality of deliveries, gaining reputation and creditability Strategic planning for development and progress of cement industry in short and mid term with specific action program Binding support policies from Government for a more stable economic environment including resources, laws and regulations...
REVIVAL PROSPECT Local demand mainly depends on growth rate of Construction Industry. In forecast, demand of cement for Construction will increase 7% to 10% in phase 2015 – 2020 (Capital injected forecasted @ 12,3 billion to 20,7 billion USD/year in such period)
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
Consumption fell down from 2011 and expect to revive from 2016. Majority of demand is in Residential and Non-Residential 70% over total demand. In 2020: Expect demand of 89mt/annum while capacity reach 95mt/annum
ADVANCED FORECASTING, INVENTORY AND WAREHOUSE MANAGEMENT NOVEMBER 3-5 2014 Intercontinental Jakarta Midplaza ,JAKARTA, INDONESIA
NEXT Event details:
DATE: 2nd-4th February 2015 (Mon - Wed)
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia Adopt proven best practices for formulating accurate inventory planning and warehousing strategies *Online Training on Effective Supplier Relationship Management (WORTH 16 CEUS) **Up to 40 CEUS in total for CIPS & ISM certification holders www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
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GLOBAL Ports tighten ship entry procedures as Ebola fears spread Brazil, Argentina and the United States have tightened port entry procedures for ships that have sailed from West Africa in a bid to control the potential spread of the deadly Ebola virus. Ebola has killed more than 3,400 people in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, and its spread has become a global concern -- with worries for trade, which could affect the airline and tourism industries together with seaborne activity. The virus is already threatening to disrupt logistics activity in West Africa and has already rattled commodities and mining markets as the region is a major source of raw materials such as iron ore as well as crude oil, bauxite and cocoa. The U.S. Coast Guard announced on Tuesday it would screen individuals coming into the United States via ships from Ebola hot spots. “The Administration continues to take thoughtful and straightforward steps in protecting Americans from Ebola, through stronger screening at our ports of entry,” said lawmaker Charles Schumer. The first person diagnosed with Ebola in the United States, died on Wednesday morning at a Dallas hospital, a hospital spokesman said. Preventative measures have been imposed at airports in several countries and ports also following suit. While most ports have yet to quarantine ships and their crews coming from affected areas, more rigorous screening is being imposed, which could potentially slow shipping activity. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Wednesday appealed to the international community to do more to help contain the spread of Ebola, and urged countries not to shut their borders. Brazil’s health surveillance agency Anvisa said this week ships which docked in Ebola-affected countries in the last 21 days will receive clearance to dock at Brazilian ports only after a thorough analysis of medical records and logs showing medicine used. Origin countries include Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria and Senegal, it said. “The ship that arrives from affected areas with no suspected case is cleared by communication over the radio ... If necessary, inspectors may come onboard to verify, in detail, the sanitary conditions,” Anvisa said, adding that in case of a suspected Ebola case, the ship will be docked at a special and isolated location and sick people immediately taken to hospital. Maritime insurance agencies are especially concerned about stowaways jumping on ships at West African ports. “There is very little control that the (ship’s) master can exert over what labour is used,” ship insurer Steamship Mutual said.
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“Delays to vessels calling at ports where they have previously called at West African ports are likely to increase. If such a vessel has stowaways aboard, the situation will be worse as authorities try and determine identities and any health problems.”
SOUTH AMERICAN EXPORTS
The spread of the virus comes at a crucial time for South America’s export season for key commodities including grains and sugar, when shipping activity traditionally gathers pace. Shipping agent Williams also confirmed that at one of Brazil’s top commodities ports Santos, ships arriving directly from ports in affected African countries need to wait around 10 days before they are allowed to dock, providing there are no developing health concerns among the crew. The journey across the Atlantic takes around 10 days, which should just cover Ebola’s potential 21-day incubation period. Argentina has similar procedures in place, officials said. Last month the authority running the Panama Canal, a major global trade artery, said it would monitor the last 10 port calls of all vessels arriving in the waterway. “If Ebola is diagnosed, the vessel will be placed in quarantine until MINSA (health ministry) authorities declare it safe for boarding,” Esteban Saenz of the Panama Canal Authority said in a statement on Sept. 23. Michael Frodl of U.S. based consultancy C-Level Global Risks said: “Panama needs to protect its human infrastructure: if the people who operate the Canal were to fall sick, we worry who could come in to reopen it.” (Additional reporting by Reese Ewing in Sao Paulo, Hugh Bronstein in Buenos Aires, writing by Jonathan Saul, editing by David Evans) reuters.com
www.indonesialogisticsonline.com | vol. 24 | I. XXIV| OCTOBER - NOVEMBER 2014
EVENTS AGENDA *2015 01.The2nd Myanmar Transport and Logistics January 19-20 ,2015 Yangon,Myanmar http://www.cmtevents.com/eventschedule.aspx?ev=141235& Centre for Management Technology *( contact email: haijar: haijar@cmtsp.com.sg; 02.NEW Indonesia Manufacturing Summit January 28-29 Jan, 2015 - J akarta Le Meridien Jakarta http://www.cmtevents.com/aboutevent.spx?ev=150105& Contact: nisha@cmtsp.com.sg or (65) 6346 9130 03.9th Indian Ocean Ports and Logistics 2015 January 22 - 23 , 2015 Girassol Indy Congress Hotel And Spa, Maputo, Mozambique http://www.transportevents.com/ForthcomingEventsdetails.aspx?EventID=EVE115 04.8th Philippine Ports and Shipping 2015 February 12 -13 ,2015 The Peninsula Manila, The Philippines http://www.transportevents.com/ForthcomingEventsdetails.aspx?EventID=EVE119 05.13th Intermodal Africa 2015 March 25 - 26 , 2015 Lagos Oriental Hotel, Lagos, Nigeria http://www.transportevents.com/ForthcomingEventsdetails.aspx?EventID=EVE117 06.11th Trans Middle East 2015 May 6 - 7 2015 InterContinental Doha The City, Qatar http://www.transportevents.com/ForthcomingEventsdetails.aspx?EventID=EVE121 07.4th Black Sea Ports & Shipping 2015 May 28 - 29 ,2015 Istanbul Marriott Hotel Asia, Istanbul, Turkey http://www.transportevents.com/ForthcomingEventsdetails.aspx?EventID=EVE123 08.13th ASEAN Ports and Shipping 2015 June 24 - 25 ,2015 JW Marriott, Jakarta, Indonesia http://www.transportevents.com/ForthcomingEventsdetails.aspx?EventID=EVE116
09.10th Southern Asia Ports, Logistics & Shipping 2015 September 17 - 18 ,2015 The Leela Kempinski Hotel Mumbai, India http://www.transportevents.com/ForthcomingEventsdetails.aspx?EventID=EVE122 10.14th Intermodal Africa 2015 October 29 - 30 October 2015 Mulungushi International Conference Centre, Lusaka, Zambia http://www.transportevents.com/ForthcomingEventsdetails.aspx?EventID=EVE118 11.3rd MED Ports 2015 November 25 - 26 November 2015 Sheraton Casablanca Hotel and Towers, http://www.transportevents.com/ForthcomingEventsdetails.aspx?EventID=EVE120 Contact email : Joseph: joseph@transportevents.com ; enquiries@transportevents.com
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