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March 24, 2012
‘All of you are the Layton legacy,’ Chow says Even after the votes are counted, questions at the heart of the race will remain Colin Horgan
Olivia Chow waves to NDP members during the evening tribute to her late husband, former NDP leader Jack Layton.
KYLE HAMILTON/iPOLITICS
Invisible majority will rule the day Away from the placards and hoopla, 72,129 members have yet to vote Elizabeth Thompson
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he final speeches have been delivered. Delegates have been wined, dined and wooed. Today, they decide who will be the next leader of the NDP and potentially the next prime minister of Canada. However, much of that will play out far from the constant glare of the television cameras. Signs, placards and the traditional convention hoopla is only the tip of a very large iceberg. The real action will be taking place below the surface as each candidate moves its get-out-thevote operation into overdrive.
Phone banks will be dialing nonstop. Campaign workers will be surfing cyberspace and social media. Prominent supporters of each candidate will take to the airwaves, talking up their candidates and spinning developments to their camps’ advantage. In the end, nobody knows for sure what will happen. Unlike traditional delegated conventions, the New Democratic Party is using a straight one-member, one-vote system to choose its next leader. While roughly 132,00 NDP members are eligible to vote and 55,659 or 41 per cent have voted through advance preferential ballots,
Phone banks will be dialing non-stop. Campaign workers will be surfing cyberspace and social media. Prominent supporters will take to the airwaves, talking up their candidates and spinning developments.
76,341 had not yet voted before the convention began. In all, 4,212 have travelled to the Toronto Convention Centre, which still leaves up to 72,129 eligible voters who could be voting in the privacy of their homes or smart phones, far from the dynamic of the convention floor. While many of them may not vote at all, that invisible majority leaves a fair amount of potential for political intrigue. Campaigns have phone banks set up in different cities across the country and have identified their core supporters as well as those who might be willing to come to NOBODY KNOWS FOR SURE: 3
“I look at our great country and I see his legacy,” Olivia Chow told the thousands gathered Friday evening in Toronto for the NDP leadership convention. She was referring, of course, to Jack Layton, the man whose shoes one of seven candidates will inevitably be asked to fill – or at least, to occupy, come some time on Saturday. The tribute brought back memories of the funeral nobody expected last summer. Layton’s friends and family appeared on the stage to remember what Layton stood for – love, equality, hope – and to remind party members of the importance of continuing that journey. Even Layton’s political opponents were there, albeit via video. Former prime ministers Jean Chrétien and Brian Mulroney praised Layton’s commitment to Canada and the political process. People like to dump on politicians, Chrétien said, but Layton was a good one — a professional who connected to people and hoped to make their lives better. Mulroney called Layton a great man. “It was always an honour to be in his company.” Unlike at Layton’s funeral, the focus was very much on the future. The message: New Democrats must heed Layton’s vision and carry through on realizing his dreams – among them, defeatLEGACY: 6
2 March 24, 2012 | iPolitics.ca
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‘Each of you carries Jack’s vision and dream in your heart’ Photos by Kyle Hamilton
iPolitics.ca | March 24, 2012 3
How well do you know your would-be leader? Check out iPolitics.ca to find outi2-ipolitics-en-final-quarter_slim.pdf who stands where ... and why. While you’re there, read what they have to say about the best and worst of the campaign trail.
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WHO WE ARE iPolitics.ca is Canada’s go-to source for independent, nonpartisan political news, information and analysis. Here are just some of the features you’ll find on our site every day: THE MORNING BRIEF Our daily newsletter drives conversations about federal and provincial politics. Delivered to your inbox by 6 a.m., it reveals all you need to know about the issues before they make headlines. BREAKING STORIES iPolitics is a must-read site for political news as it is happening. We cover the wrangling while exploring the intersection of politics with Bay Street, international finance, civil society, interest groups and the media. TALKING HEADS Colin Horgan covers all the action on the Hill in a rolling blog that updates throughout the day. FEATURED OPINION Every day at iPolitics.ca you’ll find someone eager to debate. Our regular columnists include Robert Asselin, Fen Hampson, Michael Harris, Dylan Marando, Scott Vrooman and, of course, Lawrence Martin. COMMITTEE WATCH In updated reports when the House is sitting, iPolitics and The Alpheus Group serve up full coverage of the discussions and debates in and around the government’s meeting rooms. HEADLINE NEWS In addition to the iPolitics newsfile, we showcase news, features and analysis from The Canadian Press, The Financial Times, GlobalPost and ProPublica. James Baxter, Editor and Publisher Jim Anderson, Deputy Publisher Susan Allan, Executive Editor Ian Shelton, Deputy Editor Jessie Willms, Designer Head Office World Exchange Plaza 45 O’Connor St, Suite 530 Ottawa, Canada, K1P 1A4 Phone: 613-216-9638
Today 9:00 a.m. Close of first ballot voting 10:00 a.m. First ballot results 11:00 a.m. Second round of voting opens. Voting will continue through the day as dictated by events
In the end, nobody knows for sure what will happen them on a second or third ballot. The moment the first choice of those supporters drops off the ballot, those telephone banks will spring into action with only an hour to convince those NDP members to swing to their camp. Some veteran observers say much may depend on just how high a count Thomas Mulcair gets on the first ballot. If he gets 35 per cent or more, some will be tempted to move to him on the second ballot to put him over the magic 50 per cent threshold. However, if Mulcair comes in under that level, it could turn into a very different race. While Martin Singh has already said he will urge his supporters to vote for Mulcair on the second ballot, the challenge for Mulcair’s organization will be to continue to grow its vote. If Mulcair can’t grow from one ballot to another, or grow enough, it could leave the path open for one of his rivals. On the convention floor, two of the stronger camps appeared to belong to Mulcair and Peggy Nash. With her union roots, Nash can also tap into a lot of union organizational expertise. However, insiders say Topp can
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also count on a lot of union support and is a veteran NDP organizer. His organization believes that many of Niki Ashton’s supporters can be convinced to join their camp as well as many from Nash’s camp, should she drop off. While they believe Nathan Cullen would throw his support to Mulcair, they also think they can garner many of members attracted by Cullen because of his environmental positions. In the end, chances are the final ballot will see the NDP choose between two different visions and two different directions with Mulcair on the one hand and either Nash or Topp on the other. The winner gets to take on Stephen Harper Monday. MY
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elizabeththompson@ipolitics.ca
The opposite of a hashtag fail: #NDPldr tops Twitter Mark Blevis Twitter is alive with activity about the NDP leadership convention. People issuing Twitter updates identified with the so-called hashtag (text identifier) #ndpldr or #ndp were responsible for 16,164 tweets before the Jack Layton tribute began Friday at 7 p.m. — that’s more than the average number of election-related tweets issued each day during last year’s federal campaign. When it comes to Twitter mentions, Nathan Cullen was the runaway leader until late afternoon when Peggy Nash gained momentum. Martin Singh’s showcase, including his son’s violin performance, helped significantly. His tweet count had been firm below 50 prior to him taking
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the stage. Thomas Mulcair, despite being considered the frontrunner, has lagged. Here’s the breakdown from Friday — up until the start of the Jack Layton tribute. It’s important to remember that when it comes to tweets, quantity doesn’t suggest quality of content or engagement. It’s simply a measure of mentions, including the candidate’s own Tweets. 1.Peggy Nash, 2,937 2. Nathan Cullen, 2,491 3. Brian Topp, 1,166 4. Niki Ashton, 1,082 5. Thomas Mulcair, 1,049 6. Paul Dewar, 1,026 7. Martin Singh, 473 Analysis performed using Sysomos MAP.
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4 March 24, 2012 | iPolitics.ca
Slow mo Who has momentum? After the showcase showdown, it’s anyone’s guess Lawrence Martin Hard to imagine. After running a clockwork campaign, NDP leadership candidate Thomas Mulcair stumbled at a crucial moment on Friday. The introductory hoopla to his convention address ate up so much time that he had no choice but to rush through his speech. The Montrealer who appeared self-assured and infused with the royal jelly during months of campaigning was off his game. His performance left the door open to others. And yet the frontrunner’s below-par showing may not have cost him much since no candidate shone during Friday’s showcase showdown on a dreary afternoon in a half-full hall. Who has momentum? The speeches only increased the guessing game. The short answer is no one. Any one of four — or maybe five — candidates could win the crown of Opposition leader, the biggest prize that has ever been on offer at an NDP leadership contest. Mulcair is still considered the frontrunner, but the view among many New Democrats is that his campaign stalled somewhat after Ed Broadbent’s attack. The frontal
Although Peggy Nash revealed a spark that was absent during most of her campaign, her speech was hampered by technical difficulties.
assault in which the former NDP leader called to question his social democratic bona fides cast a chill that is still being felt. Mulcair opened his speech by noting he’d run a positive campaign. With what appeared to be a shot at Broadbent, he emphasized that the only fight he’s eager to pick is across the aisle in the House of Commons. Nathan Cullen made the same point just a little earlier in the afternoon. Operating without a teleprompter, the British Columbian struggled for words at times, but found his stride toward the end. Like Mulcair, he made clear the party must reach beyond its base. Brian Topp delivered a safe but uninspiring speech that was heavy on clichés. “I am an un-
apologetic social democrat,” he said. Clichés, maybe, said one of his campaigners. “For others they’re enduring values.” Showing a spark and passion that was absent during most of her campaign, Peggy Nash announced in no uncertain terms that she is the best choice. But technical difficulties hampered her performance and she had to rush to finish over the sound of exit music. All that said, if there was anyone who gained from the afternoon speeches, it was Nash. She spoke of her experience as a labour negotiator and explained how she’d stood up to men at the bargaining table. She received a spirited introduction by Alexa McDonough, the Nova Scotian
who led the party a decade ago. If women members move en masse to Nash, she could win it. Paul Dewar appeared to find a new set of vocal chords. He was forceful and polished but still hobbled by his French, a shortcoming that is likely to keep him from the top three on the first ballot. By day’s end, some party insiders were predicting it may take four ballots to find a winner. Adding to the suspense is the likelihood that more party members than expected saved their votes for the actual convention. Of 132,000 potential voters, 55,000 cast their ballots before the opening day cut-off. It leaves large numbers to vote live and perhaps be influenced by
Kyle Hamilton/iPOLITICS
candidates who may throw their support behind others as balloting progresses. Martin Singh and Niki Ashton are likely to finish in the bottom positions when first-ballot results are announced at 10 a.m. Saturday. Singh is expected to announce his support for Mulcair, but it’s not thought that Ashton will signal her intentions. Just a little more than a week ago, Mulcair was riding a wave of endorsements from party members and media pundits. Now though, there is doubt. You can see it on the faces of those in his camp and even on that of the candidate himself. Lawrence Martin is a regular contributor to iPolitics.
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iPolitics.ca | March 24, 2012 5
THE NEW LEADER’S NEXT STEPS : Within hours of Saturday’s final ballot — while delegates are still putting the “party” in New Democratic Party — the process of shifting power from Nycole Turmel to the big winner will begin. Sonya Bell explains what the new leader can expect.
The staff in the Opposition leader’s office will present their new boss with a series of green books, outlining transition issues, what calls need to be made and what positions are to be filled. There will be a packed press conference Sunday as well, and the leader may call the caucus together for an informal first meeting.
If Sunday sounds busy, just wait for the work week. The House of Commons is back in session on Monday, there will be a formal caucus meeting Wednesday, and the federal budget comes down on Thursday. NDP MP Pat Martin predicts the Conservatives already have attack ads against the new leader poised to go, so watch for those, too.
Parliament’s two-week Easter break begins on April 6. Will there finally be time to move into Stornoway? Maybe. But most importantly, the party needs to start introducing its new leader to Canadians. Look for him or her to spend much of April on the road, meeting and greeting people at public appearances across the country.
Here’s what might transpire in each of the seven possible scenarios. Thomas Mulair
Brian Topp
Nathan Cullen
Mulcair is expected to spur the greatest number of internal changes, on the front bench and in senior staff. In some cases, he will have initiated them; in others, he’ll be informed of them. Mulcair will also stir up the most attention from the other parties. The Conservatives will move quickly to launch attack ads against a formidable opponent, while the Liberals will have to guard against losing their own progressive voters to his moderate leadership.
Topp has worked closely and collegially with most of the party’s top officials, meaning fewer turnovers are expected. On the change spectrum, he’s at the opposite end from Mulcair. But Topp has to win a seat, which will be his biggest challenge. He has said he will run in Quebec, which means asking an MP to step aside — and then possibly facing off in a byelection against Bloc Quebecois leader Daniel Paille. If Topp loses that race, we could be back on the convention floor again.
Cullen’s best known proposal is joint nominations in Conservative-held ridings, so look for him to flesh that out early on. He may put together a wise person’s committee from the NDP side to reach out to a similar group on the Liberal side. As a westerner, Cullen is also expected to raise the temperature on the energy portfolio — in particular, on the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline.
Peggy Nash With strong union support, Nash has campaigned as a movement politician, positioning herself as an NDP purist. There will be no talk of mergers on her watch, and in the House of Commons, the left/right dichotomy will be plain to see. Nash’s election could mean fairly significant changes on the front bench and in policy priority.
Paul Dewar Dewar is passionate about the grassroots and foreign policy, so look for those to be hallmarks of his leadership. His greatest challenge will be ingratiating himself to Quebecers when he is still struggling with his own French. He will continue his language lessons, but still need to move quickly to find someone who can handle the Quebec media. The trouble is, choosing a Quebec lieutenant is a decision fraught with problems.
Niki Ashton
Martin Singh
Ashton is a long-shot candidate, but then again, so was Stephane Dion. She has been campaigning on inclusive politics, growing the party in the West, and — after last week’s bickering — party unity. While observers don’t think she’s ready to take the reigns, there’s one obvious plus to her victory. Given the long odds, it would take the Conservatives more time than usual to launch attack ads against her.
As with Topp, a Singh victory would necessitate a by-election. But even Singh himself isn’t expecting that — he has already endorsed Mulcair as his second-choice candidate. After raising his profile among Canadians, particularly Indo-Canadians, look for Singh to sell enough pharmaceuticals to pay off that $1,100 fine for using unparliamentary language in the Quebec debate.
6 March 24, 2012 | iPolitics.ca
Kyle Hamilton/iPOLITICS
FROM PAGE 1
‘I look at our great country and I see his legacy’ ing the Conservative government. While the praise and accolades came from his family, fellow politicians, Canadian politicos, and even from ordinary citizens, the strongest message was from Layton’s widow, Olivia Chow, who stood at the lectern to deliver the night’s final speech. Layton’s legacy is already spreading, she told a crowd
decked in T-shirts emblazoned with the slogan, “I am the Layton legacy.” Like seeds set adrift by a spring breeze, his ideas landed here and there, sprouting new ideas. “I look at the faces of young Canadians inspired by his message of love, hope, and optimism,” she said. “Jack believed like nothing else in the power of young people,
to reject those that said, ‘This is the way it has to be,’ to show that together we can make things better, to change the world.” This is perhaps the message the NDP should choose to remember most of all. “I can’t help fearing that men may reach a point where they look on every new theory as a danger, every innovation as a toilsome trouble, every social advance as a first step toward revolution,” Alexis de Tocqueville wrote, “and that they may absolutely refuse to
move at all.” As much as the NDP needs the memory of Layton, he was unafraid of steering the party to where it needed to go, both ideologically and politically. The tribute came only hours after his seven potential successors made a final pitch to members for why and how they can lead the party to where Layton had it pointed – to more seats, to government, to more Canadians than ever. To the future. How that happens will depend
on the decisions members make in the next 24 hours. The party is still poised to vault to increased popularity, but the question is how it will do that. Even after Saturday’s final votes are counted, this existential conundrum at the heart of the leadership race will remain. As will the questions. As will the doubts. As will the debates. As will Layton’s memory. “Each of you carries Jack’s vision and dream in your heart. … All of you are the Layton legacy,” Chow said Friday. “Are you ready?”
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