IPolitics NDP leadership convention

Breaking news and analysis, photos, videos, cartoons, details on the party’s parties … plus everything you need to know as you cast your vote

March 23, 2012

Make or break for the NDP Elizabeth Thompson

The lessons of Layton’s legacy

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

What his successors should learn from the way he lived and loved politics Robin Sears

T

he instant propulsion of Jack Layton’s legacy to Olympian heights last summer caused many Liberals and Conservatives to silently grind their teeth. Those brave enough to endure the tribute to him at the NDP convention risk having their heads explode.

They had better get used to it.

Jack Kennedy was, in terms of achievement, barely a secondtier president. Jimi Hendrix and John Lennon were both coasting and frustrated with their careers when they died. Yet each now lives in a permanent Camelot or Rock and Roll Heaven. Heroes snatched suddenly exert a primal grip on the public imagination.

Like other leaders who die before it seems fair, Layton’s real political legacy risks getting lost in this sort of misty nostalgic iconography. He deserves better.

Layton’s political legacy is both far richer and more complex than the Golden Pond slides and lachrymose rhetoric of a political tribute night. It is powerful, and it contains important lessons for his successors.

First, Jack was tough. You don’t get to be a party leader, or at least you won’t survive, if you are not.

His skill, as with Tommy Douglas, was in disguising his steely edge behind a buoyant public grin. He was smart, not always a virtue in politics, especially — as Michael Ignatieff discovered — if you wear your intelligence on your sleeve.

Jack never did, but in private he was constantly reading, reaching out to people with new ideas, testing the party’s and his own prejudices and paranoias. He never confused the importance of tough and complicated strategic analysis with simple, even simplistic political messages.

He and Olivia Chow were, as friends say in awe even now, “An organizing machine!” They knew their Alinsky, Cesar Chavez and Martin Luther King lessons.

When you are No. 3, with less money, and carry the burden of a party not convinced it can win, you had better have built a good organization if you claim, “I want to be prime minister!”

Part of that organizing genius was recruiting, mentoring and molding political staff, as well as candidates and caucus members.

There was an enormous hole left at the centre of the office of the Leader of the Official Opposition when Layton so stunningly disappeared — but not at the staff level.

His team was the finest group of communication and organizational professionals in Ottawa.

It was Anne McGrath and Brad Lavigne and their lieutenants, more than any caucus

member, that held Jack’s bereaved caucus and party together throughout the awful months just ending. Together they are training close to 500 Hill staffers to be the skeleton and nervous system of the post-Layton NDP machine. The new leader had better hope this veteran staff don’t quit. Some are tempted no matter what the outcome, feeling they have done their duty, working incredibly long hours in very painful times for more than a year. Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff are examples of Opposition leaders who were too long without the essential support of a strong and united political staff. It contributed significantly to their fates.

A party determined to seek power is another astonishing thread in Jack’s legacy. This former New Democrat never thought he PAGE 6: Keep it simple

The stakes have never been higher. The potential for success — or disaster — has never been greater.

On Saturday, when nearly 132,000 members of the New Democratic Party select their next leader, they will be choosing more than just someone to go toe to toe with Prime Minister Stephen Harper in question period or crisscross the country in an election campaign. For the first time in the party’s history, it will choose someone who could have a serious chance of becoming Canada’s next prime minister.

They will also be choosing a direction for the party. A direction dominated by principle or one dominated by pragmatism. One that will keep the party centred firmly to the left or one that will continue to move the left-wing party to the political centre.

Depending on the person they choose and how that person handles the first few days of their leadership, the NDP could either emerge from the exercise united or plunged into deep divisions.

Ian Capstick, a former NDP staffer who has remained neutral in the race, says Saturday’s vote could make — or break — the party.

“Everything is at stake. Quite literally, this is the very future of the New Democratic Party of Canada.

If the New Democrats choose the wrong leader, it could be the end of the party as we know it.”

However, the party’s potential is also huge, he said.

“We’ve never been as popular, we’ve never been as successful, we’ve never been as competent, we’ve never been as focused and PAGE 3: Everything at stake

2 March 23, 2012 | iPolitics.ca

How well do you know your would-be leader? Check out iPolitics.ca to find out who stands where ... and why.

While you’re there, read what they have to say about the best and worst of the campaign trail.

WHO WE ARE iPolitics.ca is Canada’s go-to source for independent, non-partisan political news, information and analysis.

Here are just some of the features you’ll find on our site every day: THE MORNING BRIEF Our daily newsletter drives conversations about federal and provincial politics. Delivered to your inbox by 6 a.m., it reveals all you need to know about the issues before they make headlines.

BREAKING STORIES iPolitics is a must-read site for political news as it is happening. We cover the wrangling while explor- First ballot voting begins today at 5 p.m. Flip the page for a lowdown on how it will all work ing the intersection of politics with Bay Street, international finance, civil society, interest groups and the media.

Here’s one scenario that’s worthy of attention when voting

Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press

Who will go where after the first ballot?

TALKING HEADS Lawrence Martin Colin Horgan covers all the action on the Hill in a rolling blog that upOf the countless possible scenardates throughout the day. ios in the NDP leadership race, FEATURED OPINION one that should not be dismissed Every day at iPolitics.ca you’ll would see Nathan Cullen emerge find someone eager to debate. Our as kingmaker — if not the king. regular columnists include Robert The chrome-domed British CoAsselin, Fen Hampson, Michael lumbian has been the surprise Harris, Dylan Marando, Scott of the race.

His wit, likability and Vrooman and, of course, Lawrence Martin. unique policy plank of co-operation with the Liberals set him COMMITTEE WATCH apart from plodding rivals and In updated reports when the House turned him into a top-tier candiis sitting, iPolitics and The Alpheus date.

Group serve up full coverage of the Barring the unlikely prospect discussions and debates in and around the government’s meeting that he might win, he could very rooms. well be the key to the crowning of Thomas Mulcair. Although HEADLINE NEWS the Mulcair camp does not agree In addition to the iPolitics newsfile, with the Liberal reach-out plank, we showcase news, features and analysis from The Canadian Press, it stands, like Cullen, for a more The Financial Times, GlobalPost expansionist view of the NDP. Mulcair will be the second choice and ProPublica. of many Cullen supporters, perAT THE NDP LEADERSHIP haps even of Cullen himself.

CONVENTION Should the B.C. contender drop iPolitics has devoted a team of 15 to off early, he may well throw his the convention. Our reporters and photographers have been joined by support to Mulcair, which quite columnist Lawrence Martin, blog- possibly would put the frontrunger John Baglow, social media ex- ner over the top. pert Mark Blevis, funnyman Scott The link between Mulcair and Vrooman of Picnicface and car- Cullen has only been strengthtoonist Sarah Lazarovic. ened by Ed Broadbent’s attack on Mulcair. Some Cullenites considJames Baxter, Editor and Publisher Jim Anderson, Deputy Publisher Susan Allan, Executive Editor Ian Shelton, Deputy Editor Jessie Willms, Designer Head Office World Exchange Plaza 45 O’Connor St, Suite 530 Ottawa, Canada, K1P 1A4 Phone: 613-216-9638

ered the assault on the candidate to be an assault on them as well.

Jamey Heath, Cullen’s campaign manager, doesn’t mince words.

“The ideological spat that Ed is promoting is specious. He should know that Jack Layton moved the party to the centre himself. What Mulcair is proposing is exactly the sensible, common-sense growth that Jack embraced and that Alexa McDonough embraced. …I think Ed is going to get booed at the convention.”

What is not known is that Broadbent and company, who support Brian Topp, were hoping Olivia Chow would join in their strong and public criticism of Mulcair.

In fact, the Topp-Broadbent camp put word out to me that Layton’s widow was prepared to denounce Mulcair after a National Post story suggested he’d once wished to become a cabinet member in Stephen Harper’s government. ``Contact Olivia Chow,” I was told. So I did.

Chow told me that she is determined to remain neutral throughout the convention and will support the candidate who emerges as leader.

Cullen is the only top-tier candidate close to the Mulcair camp.

gets underway

The other leading candidates — Topp, Peggy Nash and Paul Dewar — are likely to join hands as a counterweight to the Montrealer who served as a cabinet minister in Jean Charest’s Quebec government.

From the outset, Cullen was a target because he proposed working with the Liberals in certain ridings to avoid splitting the vote.

Despite the beating from his fellow contenders, Cullen’s strength has grown. Resistance to his idea seems to have diminished during the campaign. But Broadbent’s words may have hurt Cullen because he pit Mulcair versus the traditionalists, a debate that gobbled up all the oxygen.

Cullen will use today’s 20-minute floor presentation to explain why a vote for him will not automatically translate into co-operation with the Liberals. It will be a democratic process at the riding level, he will say. Yet, as Heath pointed out, don’t expect Cullen to back down from his proposal.

Rough estimates suggest as many as 30,000 New Democrats (or about one-third of total voters) may cast their ballots during the convention. It means candidates wishing to throw their support

Watch our site and the iPolitics Twitterfeed for Sarah Lazarovic’s sketches from the floor.

to another candidate could play a big role.

Behind Muclair, who is almost sure to lead on the first ballot, Topp, Nash, Dewar, Cullen are expected to be tightly bunched. It’s conceivable but unlikely that Cullen, with his big support numbers in British Columbia, could come in second on the first ballot. It’s expected that Topp or Nash will vie for second, followed by Dewar and Cullen.

The scenario that favours Mulcair sees Cullen finish fourth or fifth on the first ballot before dropping off soon after. Mulcair’s victory would be sealed before the troika of Topp, Nash and Dewar could pool their resources.

But nothing is cut and dried. No candidate is expected to be able to move all of his or her supporters to another.

Cullen hasn’t been spending his time concerned about who he might throw his support to, said Jamey Heath. It hasn`t even been part of the discussion. His hope is to come in second or third on the first ballot and to move up from there. So far in this campaign he`s been the candidate of surprises.

There could be, says his campaign manager, more surprises in store.

iPolitics.ca | March 23, 2012 3

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FROM PAGE 1

‘Everything is at stake. Quite literally, this is the very future of the NDP’ Canada has never been as ready for a social democratic government as it is today.”

Robin Sears, a former national director of the party, also believes everything is at stake.

“I really do think that this is one of those fateful moments in the history of a party where we’ll sweep onto great success – or not.

“I don’t think it would be disaster in terms of collapse or losing the entire Quebec caucus or all of that nonsensical stuff you hear from some of the punditi,” Sears added. “But I do think it would certainly be a drag on growth and an asset for the Liberals and the Tories if it were to end up being divisive.”

When former NDP Leader Jack Layton passed away in August, triggering a leadership race, longtime party organizer Brian Topp burst out of the starting gate.

While other potential candidates were still mulling leadership bids, Topp racked up donations, key organizers and the endorsements of such respected NDP figures as former leader Ed Broadbent.

As the seven-month campaign winds to an end, it is Thomas Mulcair who appears to have the most momentum, cash and endorsements.

With seven candidates in the race, nobody expects a first-ballot victory. A key question is whether Mulcair can grow from one ballot to the next. Or does he risk facing an “Anybody But Mulcair” movement with rivals like Topp, Peggy

Today 9:00 a.m.: Registration opens 12:30 p.m.: Call to order 1:30 p.m.–5:00 p.m.: Candidate showcases 5:00 p.m. Start of first ballot voting 7:00 p.m. Tribute to Jack Layton

Saturday, March 24th 9:00 a.m. Close of first ballot voting 10:00 a.m. First ballot results 11:00 a.m. Second round of voting opens. Voting will continue through the day as dictated by events

Nash, Paul Dewar or Nathan Cullen teaming up.

How much room there will be for strategy and back-room maneuvering between ballots will depend largely on how many eligible voters hold out until the convention to vote.

As of Tuesday, roughly 26 per cent had voted in advance, said Sally Housser, acting deputy national director for the NDP. While those who vote by preferential ballot in the party’s advance polling system are locked into their first choice until that person drops off the ballot, those who vote on site or electronically as the convention unfolds Saturday will vote for one candidate each round and are free to switch from one candidate to another.

Not surprisingly, campaigns have been working furiously in recent days to try to maximize the number of their supporters who vote early which ensures that they can hold that support as long as they are on the ballot.

To add to the complications, this is the first time the federal NDP has used this kind of one-member, one-vote system to choose its leader and it is expected that fewer than 4,000 of the nearly 132,000 eligible to vote will actually be on site.

“It’s going to be very tough for someone who’s not there and not part of the tribe to figure out what’s going on,” said Sears.

Capstick said the key for each candidate will be to win the air

Final membership count Expected voters Estimated convention goers Convention voting terminals Winning leadership formula Time between voting rounds THE Final number of candidates Candidate withdrawals Average age of candidates Length of campaign Spending limit Registration fee Contribution limit

wars Saturday as the day goes on.

“It’s all about what’s on TV.” Some of the candidates, like Paul Dewar, are setting up phone banks to contact supporters and get out the vote throughout the day.

Another difference in this race is that unions will play a much smaller role than ever before in the party’s history. Union donations are limited and they won’t have their traditional percentage of the votes that have allowed them to play kingmaker in the past.

Sears said NDP leadership contests are not usually exciting or divisive – more like amiable contests between people who are rivals but not enemies.

However, Sears is concerned this could prove to be one of the exceptions, like the party’s founding convention in 1961 or in 1971 when the party elected David Lewis.

“What connects the three is a very divisive personality who has a hard core of support and has a lot of people who are deeply opposed to him seeking the leadership.”

“The challenge if that figure wins, how does the rest of the party and the caucus react to that because it is incumbent on him to obviously figure out a way to bring everybody back into the tent.”

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Memo to the next leader of the NDP Define yourself, don’t go negative, be prepared to co-operate Frank Graves Hearty congratulations. You’ve just won Canada’s longest ever leadership race — or maybe it just felt that way.

Endurance is sure to prove key as you step into what is certain to become Canada’s longest federal election campaign.

The precampaign used to refer to the three to six months before the drop of the writ. In these days of U.S.-inspired hardball, it’s all politics — and attack ads — all the time. No doubt you play a starring role in pretested CPC attack ads that are ready to roll.

Politics in Canada is no longer practised, it’s waged. Except for ever-shrinking interludes of actual governance, the campaigning never ends. Each side is dedicated to counteracting the other’s next new thing.

But the destructive warfare fuels an unprecedented decline of public trust in politicians and their parties.

While not responding with Pollyannaish naivete, let’s consider some structural fixes. Top of the list? Mandatory voting, then a

proportional representation fix for TFPTP mess.

Meanwhile, know that framing is critical. You need to get out ahead of those set to argue that you are “not a leader” or “just visiting.”

Frame yourself, your party, your vision.

At the same time, avoid going negative. Research suggests “hope and optimism” triumph over “fear and anger” — conservatives are drawn to threatening images, while progressives like optimism.

Govern yourself accordingly. To borrow from onetime Clinton pollster Stanley Greenberg, three things win elections: 1. Emotion.

2. Emotion. 3. Emotion.

Be aware that people overestimate the reach and trajectory of Stephen Harper’s Conservative government. Sure, they won a majority with 39 per cent of voters, but quite likely their support with all eligible voters was considerably lower. In fact, the party has rarely climbed much higher than the one in three mark, so claims of a new dynasty aren’t much shared outside of this base.

The Conservatives may be for-

midable campaigners and astute political tacticians, but serious evidence does not show Canada moving to the right.

So keep your eye on the ball. It’s your constituency that is growing!

All you have to do is to get them to show up. (Emotion, remember?)

If the Rae attack ads were inspired by the conviction that you are a blip floated on good luck, bandwagons and the late Jack Layton’s charisma, then allow the delusion to persist. It works to your favor.

The Conservatives won’t consider you a dialectical response to the fact they’ve secured government from the right. Nor will they notice that the decline of the nonideological middle works to your favour, not the Liberals.

It’s likely the Conservatives are not aware that inequality and fairness — the engines of your success — have emerged as pinnacle issues. Your party is in a unique position to deal with these concerns. Unfortunately, many consider the NDP deficient when it comes to actually managing the economy. (Your positions on trade liberalization and globalization also present points of potential tension.)

Now onto the biggest strategic

question you face: Should you reach out to co-operate with the LPC and, possibly, the Greens?

While we don’t believe anyone thinks merger is an option before the next election, it will quickly become one if the Conservatives win another majority.

In the meantime, it seems that one-time arrangements of ad hoc co-operation could lead to an NDP-led coalition government.

To start, Liberals and NDP could agree not to run in ridings in which the other party has the better chance.

Strategic voting doesn’t really work and it is unrealistic to think two parties with such deep roots,

brand identities and rivalry could pull off a merger before the next election.

The stakes are huge. You might be winner-take-all, but my honest observation is that four choices on the left against one on the right is bad political arithmetic. If you gamble and fail, frustrated voters might take things out of your hands after the next election.

My advice? Consider the costs and benefits of co-operation. I think an ample constituency would reward such a path.

Go online to iPolitics.ca to see what the latest EKOS poll has to say about the NDP.

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The iPolitics guide to the NDP vote

iPolitics.ca | March 23, 2012 5

How one new leader will be chosen from seven

100,000+ total votes in play

Advance voters

REMOTE VOTERS

PREFERENTIAL BALLOTS Submitted by mail or online. The data has already been entered to facilitate the count. Voters were required to mark at least their first choice, and may have ranked as many as all seven of the candidates

Results of first round expected to be announced Saturday at 10 a.m.

Submitting their first pick as they watch each new round online.

Real-time voters

CONVENTION VOTERS Convention floor voters, making their first choice with each new round at one of the 175 electronic voting terminals.

VOTING ROUND ONE: First round of real-time voting begins Friday after candidate speeches conclude, about 5:30 p.m. Closes Saturday at 9 a.m.

WINNER DECLARED

NO WINNER DECLARED

CASTING BALLOTS Bottom candidate dropped, others may also go. Relevant announcements are made on stage.

PREFERENTIAL BALLOTS If a winner is not chosen in first round, the preferential ballots from advance voters will be adjusted to fit the new circumstances and added to the count.

VOTING ROUND TWO: Second round commences with goal of announcing results by 12:00 p.m.

NO WINNER DECLARED

WINNER DECLARED

VOTING ROUND THREE: Voting commences.

ADDITIONAL BALLOTS

Once one candidate has garnered more than 50% of the vote, the new leader is declared, and a leadership celebration begins.

With rounds taking an estimated two hours each, and a maximum of six rounds possible (if only one candidate is eliminated each time), the new leader might not be announced until 8:00 p.m.

50% + one

Now we’ve explained how the vote will go down, go to www.iPolitics.ca for start-to-finish coverage from our team of 15 on the convention floor.

6 March 23, 2012 | iPolitics.ca

Look for Official Circles on our website for your best bets this weekend. Follow him live at @MatthewJRowe. Watch our site for photos.

FROM PAGE 1

The lessons of Layton’s legacy: Keep it simple. Recruit. Take risks … big risks would see the day when a majority of the party members, across Canada, were determined to make the compromises that serious parties do to win power. It is hard to describe how profound this change is to someone outside the complex mesh of movement purity and partisan angst that was the old NDP. Stephen Harper, a great political strategist and an admirer of Layton, sees it. That’s why the Conservative attacks on the new leader will come swiftly and viciously.

But many, perhaps most, Liberals and Conservatives — and much of the Canadian media — have still not got it: New Democrats intend to govern Canada in 2015.

Opening the door to discussions of coalition was the groundbreaking proof of Layton’s success. When Ed Broadbent listened to, but quickly rejected, Pierre Trudeau’s offer of coalition cabinet seats, his reward from a grateful party was a convention resolution, approved without even a recorded vote, condemning him and the idea. When Bob Rae installed David Peterson as premier of Ontario,

in return for a package of social democratic legislative goodies, he was met with fierce criticism and sniping from party activists and some caucus members.

When Jack Layton tried and failed to replace the Tories with an NDP/Liberal government, he was beatified on his way to political sainthood. The party grew up under Layton in a way it had under no other leader.

Then there is Quebec. The hyperbole of a leadership contest notwithstanding, Thomas Mulcair was a bit player in winning this jewel in Layton’s legacy crown. His defection was a useful early proof of Layton’s seriousness. Sadly, Mulcair’s idea of provincial organization was to demand that nearby candidates volunteer as his campaign workers.

It was Jack who understood, while still a Toronto municipal politician, that for social democrats to break the nationalist/ federalist vice of Quebec politics, they would have to take new risks, big risks: risks financially, organizationally, in the use of his scarce

time; and even bigger risks strategically in policy and in politics.

What Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff failed to understand about Quebec — and what Brian Mulroney and Pierre Trudeau did appreciate — is that you cannot win by placing one foot on each side of this deep political divide. Nationalist Quebec voters need to believe you get their angst about a community and culture that is perennially threatened with extinction. Mulroney persuaded them, but sadly, not the rest of Canada. Trudeau rejected them and won the rest of Canada.

Harper and Ignatieff, like many Canadian political leaders before them with failed Quebec strategies, believed they could flirt with both nationalist and federalist clans alternately.

Jack Layton was a student of his father’s boss in developing his keen understanding of young Quebecers in the 21st century. After the May 2 election, Mulroney and Layton spoke at length about the challenge of his new mandate. It is yet another thread in

the tragic tapestry of his death that Canada will not see a Prime Minister Layton work to heal the wounds of the 1980-1993 Constitution wars.

Finally, Layton gave meaning to the importance of authenticity in politics. It is this authenticity that is the holy grail in contemporary politics. It is not about ideology — Harper has it, Mitt Romney does not. The deep mistrust of Mulcair, as expressed by party elders like Broadbent, is rooted in their concern about his believability as a social democrat, about his authenticity.

The new leader will assume an awesome burden, given the already mythic Layton legacy and its still-growing emotional power.

The party would be wise to allow their new champion many months, many unforced errors and political stumbles as he or she grows into one of the toughest jobs in Canadian politics: Opposition leader in a majority parliament.

The new leader has three good years to make Jack smile on election night in 2015.

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