What’s in this issue ELECTION RESULTS 3 MAJORITY WANTED 4 ESTABLISHMENT OUT 7 SILVER LININGS 9
STAFF Editor-in-Chief
Artists
Nicholas Accattatis
Eva Vaynshteyn
Co-Editors
Advisor
Joseph Donat Bolton
John Pitonzo
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Cover by Eva Vaynshteyn
Joseph Donat Bolton
The Tuskan Times, Italian Election 2018 - Page 3
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MAJORITY WANTED By Joseph Donat Bolton
© Joseph Donat Bolton, 2017
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nother one bites the dust, but this time it hits closer to home. With almost 50% of votes being for far-right or populist parties Italy has officially succumbed to the wave of anti-establishment politics that has been sweeping the world these past months.
It was already expected to be a bad evening for Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party, which had been in power since the elections in 2013, but had lost popularity in recent months. The party suffered in the results due to its voters being spread throughout the country,
meaning that it did not get enough votes to win in most the First Past the Post seats, where whoever gets the most votes in a particular region wins. In the end the Democratic Party ended up with around a fifth of the vote, far less than the quarter that Bersani managed
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to bring home in 2013, and certainly less than the party managed to poll at its peak polling of around 40% in 2014. The very much anti-establishment Five Star Movement was expecting a good result, with the last opinion
polls showing them getting around 28% of the vote – and have a good night they did, reeling in a massive 31%, by far the largest single party, leading over the Democratic Party by well over 10%. This result puts the 5 Star Movement in a key position in the negotiations to form a gov-
ernment, being between the centre-left and centre-right coalitions, and currently the only realistic way to a majority for either side. The real winners of the day were all the centre-right coalition’s parties, but especially Matteo Salvini’s
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far-right League. Formerly known as the Northern League, it dropped the first part of its name and stopped advocating for the North of Italy to declare independence from the South in order to try to become a mainstream party. They recently formed a coalition with Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (Go Italy), The electoral process was dogged with issues from the start until the end of voting, and some irregularities were reported in the counting of the votes. Thousands of ballots had to be reprinted in Sicily, and thanks to a new electoral law which implemented an “anti-fraud sticker”, which numbered every ballot before they were made anonymous again when put into the ballot box slowed down the voting, with some people reportedly having to wait over 2 hours in order to cast their vote in Rome. During the counting of the votes from Italian citizens living abroad one supervisor from Emma Bonino’s +Europa party reported that the counters were opening the votes instead of putting them into a ballot box, meaning that they knew the elector’s name, thus rendering the vote null and void. The voting did not go without issues for many politicians: Berlusconi was met with a Femen protester who took her shirt and bra off, before shouting “Berlusconi, time has expired!”, and quickly being escorted from the premises by Police. President Mattarella forgot his ID card after voting, and the president of the polling station had to chase after his entourage to hand it to one of his bodyguards. The real question is what will happen next, and there is absolutely no way of telling for now. Parties could either form a larger coalition, or could fail to do so, and the country could go back to the ballot boxes to elect a new parliament again.
So what’s next for the country? A coalition government would need to be formed the current way the parliament is composed, but none of the parties seem willing to collaborate. One possibility, and by the one most feared by the European Union is an alliance between the 5 Star Movement and the League, both Eurosceptic parties that have advocated for leaving the Euro, with the latter having in the past even advocated for an Apartheid-style system on public transport and for hundreds of thousands of immigrants to be deported from the country. However, soon after the election Salvini ruled this possibility out, saying “N.O. No. Underlined three times”. The next would be a coalition between the Five Star movement and the Democratic Party, but again this seems to have been ruled out by the Democratic Party, who will be happy to stay in opposition now as in their view any other government will be terrible and will allow them to make a comeback in the next elections. There are also some other possibilities, such as one between the Democratic Party and Berlusconi, but they are still unlikely. If no government can be formed the President, Sergio Mattarella, could invite all of the parties to make a temporary government together, just for long enough to make a new electoral law and hold elections again – hopefully this time that would be able to end in the formation of a government. The election results have already resulted in their first casualty, Matteo Renzi has officially announced his resignation from the leadership of the Democratic Party, despite previously having said that he would not if they lost, this was rather unavoidable given just how badly the party lost.
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ESTABLISHMENT OUT Di Filippo Tortelli
© Joseph Donat Bolton, 2017
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’Italia ha parlato forte e chiaro, il settanta percento della popolazione ha espresso il proprio giudizio; e i dati non sono incoraggianti perché di fatto i populisti di Lega e Movimento 5 Stelle hanno vinto le elezioni in modo netto ottenendo il cinquanta percento dei voti (5 Stelle 30%, Lega 20%). I partiti più convenzionali e storici come PD e Popolo Della Libertà non hanno brillato, anzi per voti ottenuti sono ai propri minimi storici.
hanno dichiarato di non voler scendere a patti con altri partiti, ma dato i risultati di stamattina, è chiaro che l’unico modo che il partito ha per legiferare o andare al potere è di formare una coalizione ottenendo così un 40% dei voti necessari per governare. Di Maio ha sempre sostenuto che il Movimento 5 Stelle è un partito onesto, guidato da sani principi; ma se si prende in esame l’amministrazione di Roma da parte dei 5 Stelle, questi valori tanto decantati vengono meno. Ora Di Maio ed il suo partito hanno una grande possibilità per dimostrare di essere diversi, “di non essere come gli altri”; ora devono dimostrarlo per il bene degli Italiani e per il bene della democrazia Italiana.
I Cinquestelle hanno convinto dieci milioni di Italiani a votare per loro, ottenendo uno storico 30% che di fatto gli proclama partito più grande d’Italia, e su questa base il Presidente Mattarella darà l’opportunità a Di Maio di tentare di formare un governo e di chiedere la fiducia al parlamento. Per tutta la durata Trionfo anche per gli “underdogs” la della campagna elettorale, i grillini Lega che dal 4% del 2013 ha raggiunto
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il 19% risultato storico; una vittoria per una forza anti-establishment, euroscettico, e populista. Salvini ha basato la propria campagna elettorale sulla protezione dei confini Italiani, la tutela dei posti di lavoro e l’implementazione della Flat-tax manovra da 120 miliardi che almeno in teoria dovrebbe andare a risolvere progressivamente i problemi fiscali italiani con un’aliquota al 15%. Salvini ha conquistato i voti del nord Italia convincendo i più scettici, e ottenendo un posto di rilievo per la XVIII legislatura e forse anche la possibilità di diventare premier in caso i 5 Stelle non riescano a formare un governo; e quindi Mattarella ripiegherebbe sulla coalizione di centrodestra dove il partito di maggioranza è quello di Salvini. Disastro PD, il partito che alle scorse elezioni ha vinto ed alle europee del 2014 aveva vinto col 40% perde in maniera brusca e netta. Queste elezioni sono state la Waterloo di Renzi, che potrebbe dimettersi dal suo ruolo di segretario, anche l’ipotesi di una sua scissione dal PD non è scontata dato che fondando un suo partito sottrarrebbe l’otto per
cento dei voti al partito di centro sinistra. In caso di dimissioni il più probabile a succedergli sarebbe il premier uscente Gentiloni che medierebbe col parlamento. Questa delusione politica deve essere analizzata e processata dal
il suo 14% è il secondo partito della coalizione di centrodestra, questo pone Berlusconi in una posizione che in più di 20 anni in politica non si era mai trovato. Berlusconi dovrà supportare un possibile governo Salvini con un doloroso passaggio di consegne che si annuncia tutt’altro che scontato. In caso nessun partito politico riesca ad ottenere una maggioranza gli italiani sarebbero richiamati alle urne tra sei mesi, quando una nuova legge elettorale sarebbe pronta.
Queste elezioni sono state la dimostrazione che il populismo è guidato dal malcontento degli italiani, combattendo l’establishment, Lega e Movimento 5 Stelle hanno ottenuto il 50% dei voto degli italiani che sono andati alle urne. Interpretando i voti degli italiani sì può dire che le richieste prioritarie sono meno P a r t i t o D e m o c rat i co tasse e più spesa pubblica per capire le cause che che generi posti di lavoro. hanno portato uno dei sfortunatamente primi partiti d’Italia a per- L’Italia dere così tanto terreno non è riuscita ad arginare e con le altre forze politiche. “tenere botta” ai populisti. Questi risultati possono Questo potrebbe creare essere, come un punto di nuovi fronti politici anche partenza per una ricostru- in Francia e Germania. Le prossime due settimane zione del partito. saranno essenziali per Risultati deludenti anche capire ed interpretare i per “l’usato sicuro” Sil- possibili scenari politici vio Berlusconi che con della XVIII legislatura.
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SILVER LININGS By Nicholas Accattatis
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fter this sort of event, it is always easy to despair and lose all hope for the future. Although this was not the result most liberal-minded people desired, there are silver linings. If we want to avoid repeating or exacerbating an already distressing situation, there are three important lessons we must be prepared to accept and learn from. Firstly, underestimating the appeal of populist rhetoric has has been a recurring theme since the British people voted for Brexit. While there have been cases of successful resistance to populism, such as the French and Dutch elections last year, there have also been alarming breakthroughs for extremist political forces previously considered peripheral, none more so than the astonishing rise of the AfD in Germany in last year’s election,
Image courtesy Andy Miah which entered the Bundestag as the third biggest party after winning no seats in the previous election in 2013. The results of the Italian election should provide further evidence that this populist trend is still running strong, and thus we must address it up front. To do so means going beyond simply painting these parties and their supporters as nothing but racists and xenophobes. One the one hand, it is true that they engage in heavily xenophobic rhetoric. However, it would be a mistake to see this as their only focus. This backlash is a result of the failure of mainstream parties to address issues that have led to a total evaporation of confidence in these parties’ ability to improve the lot of the average Italian. The problems Italy faces, ranging from a stuttering economy still weaker than
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pre-crisis levels, to high youth unemployment, have led to a squeeze in living standards leaving Italians no choice than to vote for change, which, simply put, is what the Lega and the Movimento 5 Stelle claim to represent. To merely attack these groups by assigning labels does nothing more than to solidify their position as outsiders, consequently strengthening their appeal. If we want to properly tackle the apparent fortress of populism, mainstream parties need to look inwards and evaluate the failure of their own policies that led to their electoral disaster. This carries into the second lesson. Another common theme in many recent elections with strong populist forces has been a dramatic decline in support for traditional left-of-centre parties. In France, Benoît Hamon, the presidential candidate of the historically significant Parti Socialiste (PS), was not even close to reaching the second round of voting, hardly surprising given that then-President François Hollande of the PS became the most unpopular President with a meagre 26% approval rating. East of the border into Germany, the Social Democratic Party sunk to record lows in the 2017 election,
a strong sign that voters are unhappy with them for their role in supporting Merkel’s government as junior coalition partners. Back towards the West in the Netherlands, the Dutch Labour Party (PvdA) went from holding over a quarter of seats in parliament in 2012 to around 6% of seats in last year’s election. All over Europe, most parties of the left are experiencing a steep decline.
dation for their long-term political survival. The Iraq War stands out as being the biggest blunder of them all. In 2015, Labour had a new face in the form of Ed Miliband, but he did not do a convincing enough of job of distancing himself from the New Labour of old that had become so reviled by the people. After Miliband’s resignation, the subsequent leadership contest brought an unlikely candidate to the helm of the party: Jeremy Corbyn. A renegade MP who had fought the New Labour government’s centrist agenda every step of the way had become the leader of the Labour Party. Without further adieu, he set about bringing Labour back to its traditional niche as a democratic socialist voice to, in this situation at least, oppose the Conservative government. Since then, the Labour Party has increased in popularity, stripping the Conservatives of their majority and holding the government to account on a variety of social and economic issues. Granted Labour’s popularity is a product of the Conservatives unpopularity, however to simply forget all the above when explaining Labour’s recent rise would be nothing short of ludicrous.
Nevertheless, there is, as aforestated, a silver lining to this trend. What the Labour Party has done in the UK should inspire hope and confidence that a rebound in popularity and relevance is possible for the Left. After 13 years in power, the Labour Party suffered an absolute shellacking in the 2010 election. There are of course many factors, none more so than the financial crisis, that contributed to Labour’s fall from power, but it would not be too much of a stretch to say that the party’s shift from its traditional democratic socialist doctrine to a more moderate social democratic stance was partly responsible. Although it is true that this strategic move brought 13 consecutive years in power, it must not be forgotten that the policies implemented by Labour’s shift to the centre What this demonstrates failed to lay a strong foun- is that the Left is not
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doomed. It just needs to start migrating back to the Left again. Back in Italy, Renzi led the PD away from its traditional left-wing roots and towards the centre to widen its appeal. Less than 19% in this election is another clear confirmation that this strategy is not sustainable if the Left wants to maintain a presence in governance. This result gives us the possibility for the same process that occurred within the Labour Party to occur within the PD. Although it may seem that this point only concerns those with leftist convictions, a healthy party of the Left is crucial to the functioning of any mainstream party system. In Italy’s case,
there was an absence of established parties of the Left, thus those who would have voted for traditional left-wing parties switched allegiances and inflated the popularity of the aforementioned populist parties. Strong, competent forces of the Left and Right keep radical, populist forces in the margins of political relevance. Since we all have a stake in our political system, it is in our best interests to see the Left return to its original position. Lastly, looking forward, it is crucial to recognise that there is so much more to democracy than voting. In this age of sensationalism and scandals in the media,
elections have become a sardonic form of entertainment instead of an exercise in civic engagement. As a result, people seem to forget that the democratic process should continue long after they’ve cast their ballots. Emails, calls, petitions, sit-ins, marches, canvassing; these are abilities that are bestowed upon the electorate to use when they wish to direct policy. It is especially important to do this when those making policy are not representing our best interests. As dire as it may seem at this present time, the moment we lose hope in our ability to effect change is the moment we lose ourselves and everything we care about.
Image courtesy Dutch News