08. Beurkens 30

Page 1

SET Analysis

Wind Energy Update 2012 Jos Beurskens SET Analysis

Photo Jos Beurskens

Jos Beurskens

(TUDelft, ECN)

The 2012 Curaçao Conference/Expo on the future of Durable Energy Willemstad, 30 March 2012 2012-03-30

1


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Wind Energy Update 2012

This presentation • Technology developments; what were the essential innovations? • Emergence of off-mainstream applications (offshore) • Development & perspectives of offshore wind energy • Market development • Concluding remarks

2012-03-30

2


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

1. Essential innovations in wind turbine technology

2012-03-30

3


Drive trains

Essential innovations in wind turbine technology

SET Analysis

Classical drive train

Jos Beurskens

Permanent magnets ENERCON

Zephyros

Direct drive HTS (high temperature super conductivity)

2012-03-30

4


Electrical conversion

Essential innovations in wind turbine technology

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Variable speed (variable blade pitch)

2012-03-30

• Control abilities comparable with regular electricity plant • Control of voltage, reactive power, output power • Fault ride through ability

5


Essential innovations in wind turbine technology

Multi parameter control: • Maximising electric output • Capacity factor • Minimising fatigue loads • Safety systems • Overall stability (active vibration control) • Advanced sensors (LIDAR)

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Control strategies

Siemens SWT- 2.3-113 Direct-Drive WTG LiDAR (Qinetiq ZephiR)

2012-03-30

6


Essential innovations in wind turbine technology

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Up scaling

Generating capacity = own consumption

2012-03-30

7


Up scaling

Essential innovations in wind turbine technology

mass ~ (D³) cross section ~ (D²) stress (= mass/cross section) ~ D

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

For the engineer:

2012-03-30

For the economist: investment cost ~ (D³) energy output ~ (D²) COE (= inv. cost/energy output) ~ D

Development of advanced materials with a higher strenth to mass ratio

8


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Up scaling

2012-03-30

Essential innovations in wind turbine technology

Cost of support structures are dominant and are relatively insensitive to load carrying capacity

The wind turbines should be as big as possible !

9


Up scaling

Essential innovations in wind turbine technology

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Size matters

From: Gijs van Kuik

2012-03-30

10


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Consequences of up scaling

2012-03-30

Essential innovations in wind turbine technology

• Extreme up scaling only possible if materials with low mass to strength ratio become available • Distributed aerodynamic control needed

11


Essential innovations in wind turbine technology Up scaling: weight requirements for blades

30,00

Gl-P HLU Gl-P RI

25,00

Gl-Ep RI Gl-Ep Prep

Blade Mass (tn)

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Technology Evolution with Blade Size

20,00

Gl-C Hybrid 1 Gl-C Hybrid 2

15,00

New Tech 1 New Tech 2

10,00

New Tech 3 REFERENCE

5,00

Ep Prep P RI

0,00 10

20

30

40

50

Rotor Radius (m )

60

70

P HLU Hybrid

Source: UpWind; CRES, GR

2012-03-30

12


Distributed blade control

Essential innovations in wind turbine technology

SET Analysis

Distributed blade control necessary

Jos Beurskens

Wind field

Photo: Jos Beurskens

2012-03-30

13


Onshore; visual impact

Intermezzo

More energy from a location without increase of negative visual impact.

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Other advantages of up scaling:

2012-03-30

14


Onshore; visual impact

Intermezzo

More power per km of line lay-out (P> aD)

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Other advantages of up scaling:

P: power H: height of tower D: rotor diameter

15


Intermezzo

Onshore; visual impact

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Other advantages of up scaling:

Larger rotor diameter implies lower rotor speed Vtip _____________

= λ = V wind ongestoord Ω =

Ω.R Vwind ongestoord

_____________

λ.Vwind ongestoord _______________ R

Ω ~

1 R

____

16


From wind turbine

to

Wind power system

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

2. Essential innovations in wind power systems

2012-03-30

17


Essential innovations in wind power systems

Grid connection of offshore wind farms

• Distance from wind farm to connection point to national grid (L1, L2) or to (future) sea grid (L1a, L2a) • Capacity and geographical distribution of wind power capacity

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Grid architecture depends on:

L1a

L2a

••••• •••• •••

L1

••••• •••• ••• L2 Photo Jos Beurskens

2012-03-30

18


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Grid connection of offshore wind farms

Essential innovations in wind power systems

HVAC vs. HVDC connection (~10 km)

34 kV

150 kV

AC (~23 km) 22 kV

Future

150 kV

9 - 150 kV

(>120 km)

AC

DC

10 - 36 kV

2012-03-30

19


Essential innovations in wind power systems

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Grid connection of offshore wind farms

2012-03-30

20


Essential innovations in wind power systems

Wind synergies with Interconnectors => Multi-terminal HVDC

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Grid connection of offshore wind farms

2012-03-30

21


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Wind farm lay-out

2012-03-30

Essential innovations in wind power systems

Increasing output & decreasing output variability by:

• Different lay-out of arrays • Wind farm/turbine control

22


Essential innovations in wind power systems

u

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Wake interaction

2012-03-30

23


Essential innovations in wind power systems

Wind farm output and wind direction

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Variability power output

Torben J. Larsen, Risø-DTU

2012-03-30

24


Essential innovations in wind power systems

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Variability power output

New lay-out of Horns Rev 2

2012-03-30

25


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

3. Off-mainstream applications

2012-03-30

26


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

3. Off-mainstream applications

Remote Rural Islands Cold Climate

Mainstream Wind Power

Mainstream Wind Power

Offshore

Hot Deserts

VTT

2012-03-30

27


Maturity of the technologies

Off-mainstream applications

Rated power [MW]

Grid connected turbines; wind farms offshore

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

10

1

Grid connected turbines; medium scale

Grid connected turbines; wind farms on land

Hybrid systems (AWDS) 0.1

Grid connected turbines; small scale

0.01

Circle areas indicate maturity

Autonomous & Hybrid (W-PV)

Rotor diameter [m]

0

2012-03-30

25

50

75

100

125

28


Small wind turbine pioneers; the reference case

3. Off-mainstream applications

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Manufacturers of small wind turbines pioneered the emergence of modern wind turbine technology

Lagerwey [Beurskens]

Windmatic (DK) [Beurskens]

2012-03-30

Enertech (USA) [Beurskens]

Allgaier (D) [Beurskens]

Carter (USA) [Beurskens]

Amstrong (UK) [Beurskens]

29


Modern small wt’s: 8 out of 650

3. Off-mainstream applications

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

No certification. Standards not appropriate. Blade throw distance independant from rotor diameter.

Not all work satisfactory ! 2012-03-30

30


Off-mainstream applications

Offshore verus onshore; world wide

Installed Wind Power in the World - Annual and Cumulative 200,000

30,000

3554 MW 43 83 MW/project 8.1 MW/project 198 MW/project

175,000 150,000

25,000

125,000

20,000

100,000

15,000

75,000

10,000

50,000

5,000

25,000

0

0 1983

1990

1995

Year Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

2012-03-30

Cumulative MW

Total installed offshore wind power: Total number of projects: Average power per project: Average power of 10 smallest projects: Average power of 10 largest projects:

35,000

MW per year

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

40,000

2000

2005

2010

31


Off-mainstream applications

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

European offshore WE potential

Time lines displaced by 16 years !

2012-03-30

32


European offshore WE potential

Off-mainstream applications

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Eight 100x100 km offshore wind farms could produce 3,000 TWh – equivalent to EU electricity demand

Based on Siemens information

2012-03-30

33


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

4. Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

2012-03-30

34


Specific Offshore issues

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Offshore WE technology: What makes it different from land based applications?

2012-03-30

• •

Cost breakdown External conditions (waves, salt conditions, turbulence, extreme winds, (sea) bottom)

• • • • • • •

Support structures Transport and Assembly Commissioning Operation and Maintenance; Access Grid integration Scale & Risk Nature issues & Safety 35


Development & Pespectives of offhsore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Cost break down

22%

onshore

Wind turbine (including tower) 61%

2%

Foundation 4%

2% 9%

Consultancy & finance 2%

Grid-connection 9%

61%

4%

23%

Operation & maintenance 22%

3% 34%

offshore

Wind turbine 34% Support structure & installation 24% Grid connection 15% Management 1%

1%

Operation & maintenance 23%

15% 24%

2012-03-30

Land purchase & roads 2%

Decommissioning 3%

36


Wind turbine requirements

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

• Size: as large as possible

Repower

• Reliability (reduced number of components – direct drive) • Availability

Nordex N80 Offshore

• Maintainability • Servicebility • Accessebility

RAMS 2012-03-30

37


Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Up scaling

© Jos Beurskens

2012-03-30

38


Support structures

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Wind turbine

Oil/gas platform

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

‘one dimensional’ taxonomy of foundations

2012-03-30

39


Support structures

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Photo Jos Beurskens

Photo Jos Beurskens

Photo Jos Beurskens

Photo Jos Beurskens

Photo Jos Beurskens

Photo Jos Beurskens

40


Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Support structures

© Jos Beurskens

2012-03-30

41


Support structures

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

SET Analysis

Design aspects of offshore suport structures manufacturing soil condition

Jos Beurskens

water depth

transport system

Support structures

end of life solution

installation method

logistics

ecological constraints

2012-03-30

42


Support structures

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

STEAM HOSES

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

CRANE

CAGE STEAM PRESSURE RAM CUSHION ANVIL PILE

2012-03-30

43


Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Support structures

Noise absorption shield

2012-03-30

44


Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Source: EWEA

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Support structures

2012-03-30

45


Floating support structures

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Tension Leg Platform (TLP)

2012-03-30

46


Floating support structures

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Spar

2012-03-30

47


Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Semi submersible

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Floating support structures

2012-03-30

48


Transport & Installation

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

SET Analysis

Stabilisation: floating / jack-up

Jos Beurskens

Photo: Jos Beurskens Photo: Jos Beurskens

49


Transport & Installation

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Integrated approaches

Ballast Nedam 2012-03-30

Sway 50


Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Planning phase Photo: Jos Beurskens

ECN O&M Tool

Ampelmann

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Operation and Maintenance

2012-02-07

Validated by GL Many licenses sold Flight Leader concept Many wind farms analysed

51


Operation and Maintenance

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Availability = f (reliability, accessibility)

90 OWECS Availability [%]

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

100 100% accessibility (onshore)

Ampelmann: Hs= 2.5 m, 50 m vessel (93 %)

80% accessibility

80 60% accessibility

70 60 50 state-of-the-art

40% accessibility (exposed offshore)

Strategy 1 improved

highly improved

Reliability of design [-]

20-01-2012

www.we-at-sea.org

52


Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Operation and Maintenance

Foto: Jos Beurskens

Photo: JosBeurskens Beurskens Foto: Jos

Access system: Ampelmann concept

2012-03-30

53


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Logistics

Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

12 miles zone

heliport

haven


Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Harbours at sea

750 M€ - 1000 M€ Could serve 10,000 MW economically T = 5 to 7 years

Lievense, R. Prins

Source: Renout Prins 2012-03-30

55


Birds

Automatic monitoring

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Offshore; ecological aspects Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

(migration, collisions)

Marine mammals (sound during installation) TNO

Fish (Positive effects, negative effectsduring hammering?)


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Offshore; ecological aspects Development & Pespectives of offshore WE

The more research is conducted ….. the less anticipated problems appear to be real ones, the more mitigating measures appear possible and effective !


4. Market development & Experiences

Market growth

Europe 2011: 97 GW

Installed Wind Power in the World

• 2011: 238.400

40,000

200,000

35,000

175,000

30,000

150,000

25,000

125,000

20,000

100,000

15,000

75,000

10,000

50,000

5,000

25,000

0

Cumulative MW

Jos Beurskens

MW per year

SET Analysis

- Annual and Cumulative -

0 1983

1990

1995

Year Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

2000

2005

2010

Market (31-12-2010) 2012-03-30

58


Impact on investments

Market development & Experiences

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Wind power investments 30 (€bn)

25

20

15

10

5

0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Onshore Investments (€2010 bn) Offshore Investments (€2010 bn)

2012-03-30

59


Market development & Experiences

Impact on electricity supply

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Wind energy’s share of national electricity demand, end 2010 Denmark Portugal Spain Ireland Germany EU-27 Greece Netherlands United Kingdom Estonia Sweden Italy Austria Lithuania Belgium France Bulgaria Romania Poland Hungary Luxembourg Latvia Czech Republic Finland Slovakia Slovenia Malta Cyprus

25,6% 15,5% 15,0% 12,9% 8,0% 5,3% 4,3% 4,1% 3,7% 3,5% 3,2% 3,2% 2,8% 2,7% 2,3% 2,3% 2,1% 1,7% 1,6% 1,5% 1,1% 0,9% 0,6% 0,5% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%

0%

5%

EU average 5.3%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

2012-03-30

60


Market development & Experiences

Impact on land use

Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Installed wind power per 1000 km², end 2010 Denmark Germany Netherlands Portugal Spain Belgium UK Ireland EU-27 Italy Luxembourg Austria France Greece Cyprus Sweden Poland Bulgaria Estonia Hungary Czech Republic Lithuania Romania Finland Latvia Slovakia Slovenia Malta

4,8 3,5 3,4 3,3 3,2 2,7 2,4 1,9 0,6 0,5 0,1 0,0 0,0

0

12,1 10,3 9,2 8,9

10

21,3 20,3 19,5 19,2 16,4

20

30

54,1

42,6 41,0

29,9

40

76,2

50

60

70

80

88,1

90

100

Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 2012-03-30

61


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Final remarks

Wind Energy

• Small wind turbines require same quality checks and safety as large turbines. Independant testing & Certification essential • Siting in built up areas is critical and extremely difficult • Offshore wind energy is in full development and needs government incentives • Floating structures in embryonal stage • Grid integration is show stopper, in particular on islands • Electric car fleet is key for (cost effective) balancing electricity supply and demand • Corrosion protection: much to be learned from offshore.

2012-03-30

62


Jos Beurskens

SET Analysis

Wind Energy

2012-03-30

Masha danki pa bo atenshon! Thank you for your attention!

63


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.