p0283532680091.pdf

‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ‬

‫ﭘﻨﺠﺸﻨﺒﻪ ‪ 12‬ﺁﺑﺎﻥ‪1390‬‬

‫‪politic@jamejamonline.ir‬‬

‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺩﺳﺘﺎﻭﺭﺩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﺴﺨﻴﺮﻻﻧﻪ ﺟﺎﺳﻮﺳﻲﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬

‫ﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺳــﺮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻠﺐ ﺯﻣﻴﻦ ﺗﺴــﻠﻂ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﺎﻥﻃﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﻛــﻪ ﻗﺒــﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺑــﺮﺍﻱ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻜﺴــﻠﻮﺍﻛﻲ ﻫــﻢ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺎﺯﻩ ﻧﮕﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻣــﻮﺭﺩ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺗﺤﻤﻴﻠﻲ ﻫﻢ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺩﺍﺷــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺻﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ ﺭﻫﺒﺮ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﭘﺮﻭﺍﺯ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺮﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺟﺴﺘﺠﻮ ﻣﻲﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺤﺚ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺍﺭﻭﻧﺪﺭﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺩ ‪ 68‬ﻧﺒﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺻﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺗﻮﺳــﻌﻪﻃﻠﺒﺎﻧﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷــﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺻﺪﺍﻡ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﻣﻘﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﺪﻋﻲ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﮔــﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍ ﭘﻴﺶ ﻧﻤﻲﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻮﺿﻊ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻔﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﺵ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻇﻬﺎﺭﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﻗﺖ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻗﺮﺍﺋﻦ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻱ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﺯﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺳﻘﻮﻁ ﺷﺎﻩ ﻭ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﺷﺎﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﮔﻮﺷﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺻﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﻳﻜــﺮﺩ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﻱ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻭ ﻧﻤﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﻔﺖ ﺗﺴﺨﻴﺮ ﻻﻧﻪ ﺟﺎﺳﻮﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺻﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺠﺎﺏ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﻫﺮ ﻛﻨﺶ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ‪ ،‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻓﺎﻳﺪﻩﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﻨﺼﻔﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺷﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﻦ ﺑﻬﺸﺘﻲﭘﻮﺭ‪ /‬ﺟﺎﻡﺟﻢ‬

‫ﻧﻜﺘﻪ‬

‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﺣﺴﺎﺱ ﻣﻲﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﻮﻗﺖ‬ ‫ﺁﻥﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺷﺎﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺑﻲ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻧﻤﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﻀﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺳﺎﺯﺵ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﭘﻴﺶ ﻣﻲﺑﺮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻭﺝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺣﺴﺎﺱ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴﺎﻟﻪ ﺩﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺯﺭﮔﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺑﺮژﻳﻨﺴﻜﻲ ﻣﺘﺒﻠﻮﺭ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﺷﻴﻪ ﺟﺸﻦﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺰﺍﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‬

‫ﻣﺘﻦ ﻭ ﺣﻮﺍﺷﻲ ﺭﻭﻳﺪﺍﺩ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺁﻳﻨﺪ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺫﻛﺮﺷــﺪﻩ ﺳــﺒﺐ ﺷــﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺗﺴــﺨﻴﺮ ﺳــﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﺁﻣﺮﻳــﻜﺎ ﺟﺪﻱ ﺷــﻮﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺑــﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺳــﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺴﺨﻴﺮ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ 72‬ﺳــﺎﻋﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﻮﻥ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺨــﺶ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺒﻮﺩﻧــﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺠﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳــﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻮﻗــﻲ ﮔﺮﻳﺒﺎﻥ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻤﻲﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﻗــﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ‬

‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ ﺩﻭﻡ‬

‫ﻃﺮﺡ‪ :‬ﺟﺎﻡﺟﻢ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻗﻌــﻪ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻓﺘــﺎﺩﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺎﺭﻳــﺦ ‪ 13‬ﺁﺑﺎﻥ ﺳــﺎﻝ ‪ 1358‬ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﭘﻴﺸــﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺭﻳﺸــﻪﻫﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ ﻧﺸﺴــﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺭﻳﺸﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻜﺎﺕ ﺫﻳﻞ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺷﺎﺭﻩ ﻛﺮﺩ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻝ( ﭘﻨـﺎﻩ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﺁﻣﺮﻳـﻜﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺷـﺎﻩ‪ :‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻓــﺮﺍﺩ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﺒﺶ ﺩﺍﻧﺸــﺠﻮﻳﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻭﻗﺘﻲ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﭘﻨــﺎﻩ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪﺗﺪﺭﻳﺞ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑــﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎﻱ ‪28‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﺳــﺎﻝ ‪ 1332‬ﺁﻣــﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺷــﺎﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﮔﺮﺩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺷﺎﻳﺪ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﻋﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﺎ ﺳﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺴﺨﻴﺮ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪،‬‬ ‫ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺪﺍﺧﻠﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺻﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺧﺼﻮﺻــ ًﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﻱ ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎﻱ ﻣﻌــﺮﻭﻑ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻓﻈﻪ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻭ ﺩﺍﻧﺸــﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﺛﺒﺖ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺭﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﭘﻴﺸﮕﻴﺮﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﭼﻨﻴــﻦ ﺭﻭﻳــﺪﺍﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﻣﺬﻛﻮﺭ ﺗﻮﺳــﻂ ﺩﺍﻧﺸــﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺮﺍ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻡ( ﻋﻤﻠﻜـﺮﺩ ﺩﻭﻟـﺖ ﻣﻮﻗـﺖ‪ :‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸــﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﺣﺴــﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﻛﺮﺩﻧــﺪ ﺩﻭﻟــﺖ ﻣﻮﻗﺖ ﺁﻥﻃــﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺷــﺎﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻤــﻞ ﻧﻤﻲﻛﻨــﺪ‪ .‬ﮔﺎﻫﺎ ﺍﺣﺴــﺎﺱ ﻣﻲﺷــﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳــﻤﺖ ﺳــﺎﺯﺵ ﺑــﺎ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﭘﻴﺶ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﺑﺮﻧــﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻭﺝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺣﺴــﺎﺱ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﻋﻤﻠﻜــﺮﺩ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺣﻴــﻪ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺑﻲ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴــﺎﻟﻪ ﺩﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺮﺣــﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﮔﺎﻥ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﺮژﻳﻨﺴــﻜﻲ ﻣﺘﺒﻠﻮﺭ ﺷــﺪ؛ ﺩﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﺷــﻴﻪ ﺟﺸﻦﻫﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺘﻘﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺰﺍﻳﺮ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﻭ ﺷــﻚ ﻭ ﺗﺮﺩﻳﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻜــﺮﺩ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳــﺶ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻧﮕــﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬ ‫ﺑــﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺯﻣﻴﻨــﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺸــﺖ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺮﺻﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﺍﻫﻢ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺸــﺘﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻃﺒﻌﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺑﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺳـﻮﻡ( ﻣﻮﺿﻌﮕﻴﺮﻱﻫـﺎﻱ ﺍﻣـﺎﻡ)ﺭﻩ(‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ‬ ‫ﺳــﺨﻨﺮﺍﻧﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻣﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻣــﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺟﻠﺐ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺸــﺎﻥ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﺳــﺎﻝ ‪ 58‬ﺑﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ‪ ،‬ﺧﻴﻠﻲ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻣــﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻧﺘﻘــﺎﺩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧــﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﮔﻮﻳﻲ ﺍﻳﺸــﺎﻥ ﻧﺴــﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﺩﭼﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻧﻲﻫﺎﻳــﻲ ﺷــﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﻛــﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺒﺎﺭﺯﻩ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺘﺒﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺟــﺪﻱ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺭﺯﻩ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳــﺘﻌﻤﺎﺭ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ‬ ‫ﻫــﻢ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﻣﻲﺩﺍﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻘﻄﻊ ﻣﺒﺎﺭﺯﻩ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳــﺘﺒﺪﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺳــﺮﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺭﺳــﻴﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺒﺎﺭﺯﻩ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳــﺘﻌﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﻏﻔﻠﺖ ﻣﻲﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﺭﮔﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﻣﻲﺭﺳــﺎﻧﺪﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﺧﺎﺳﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﺑــﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺍﻭﺝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ ﺍﻣﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﭘﻴﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺸــﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺳــﺎﻝ ‪ 58‬ﺻﺎﺩﺭ ﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﺒﻠﻮﺭ ﺷــﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣــﻲ ﻛــﻪ ﺍﻣﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻫﻤﮕﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺒــﺎﺭﺯﻩ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻮﺍﺿﻊ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻋــﻮﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮﻋﻲ ﺣﺠﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺨﺸــﻲ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺎﻡ ﻣﺬﻛﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷــﺮﺡ ﺑﻮﺩ‪» :‬ﺑﺮ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺶﺁﻣﻮﺯﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺼﻠﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺩﻳﻨﻴﻪ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳــﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻗــﺪﺍﻡ ﻛﻨﻨــﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺁﻧﻬــﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻭﺍﺩﺍﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺮﺩﺍﻧﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷــﺎﻩ ﻣﺨﻠﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪«.‬‬ ‫ﭼﻬـﺎﺭﻡ( ﻋﻤﻠﻜـﺮﺩ ﺳـﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﺁﻣﺮﻳـﻜﺎ‪ :‬ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫــﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﺍﺧﻠﻪﺟﻮﻳﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺳــﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻣﻲﻛﺮﺩ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﺘﺸــﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﻨﺎﺩ ﻻﻧــﻪ ﺟﺎﺳﻮﺳــﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺑــﺮﺍﻱ ﻫﻤﮕﺎﻥ ﺗﺒﻴﻴﻦ ﺷــﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﺷــﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﺑﮕﻮﻳﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻤﻪ ﺳــﻔﺎﺭﺗﺨﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺟﻤﻊ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺁﻳﺎ ﻫﻤﻪ ﺳــﻔﺎﺭﺗﺨﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺎﺭ ﺟﻤﻊﺁﻭﺭﻱ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺳﻴﺴــﺘﻢ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻫﻢ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ؟ ﺍﻳﻦﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻔﺎﺭﺗﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ‬ ‫ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎ ـ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﻱﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎﻱﻧﻮژﻩـﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱﺷﻮﺩ‪،‬ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﻑ ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺗﻴﻚ ﺍﺳــﺖ؟ ﻃﺒﻌﺎ ﺍﻳﻦﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﺭﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺳــﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺷﻮﺭﺵﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺠــﺎﻡ ﻣــﻲﺩﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﻱ ﮔﻨﺒﺪ‪ ،‬ﺷــﻮﺭﺵﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﺴــﻠﻤﺎﻥ ﻳﺎ ﺧﻠﻖ ﻋﺮﺏ‪ ،‬ﻗﻄﻌﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳــﻲ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺳــﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺍﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﻨﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﻫﻤﮕﺎﻥ ﻣﺤﺮﺯ ﺷــﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺴﺨﻴﺮ ﺳﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻌﻀﺎ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺳــﻤﻊ ﻭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻭ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺭﺳﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﻮﻭﻻﻧﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺴﺨﻴﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ‬ ‫ﺑــﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﺴــﺎﻟﻪ ﻳﻜــﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﻧﺸــﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺷﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺭﻭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺗﺴــﺨﻴﺮ ﻃﻮﻻﻧﻲ ﻧﺒﺎﺷــﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻥ ﺍﺳﻨﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺧﺎﻟﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﻓﻴﺼﻠﻪ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻦ ﻗﻀﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺝ ﺿﺪﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻳﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺑﻴﻔﺘﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺷﻐﺎﻝ ﺳﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﻭ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ ﻛﺎﻣﻼ‬ ‫ﺑــﺎ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺎﻡ ﭘﻴﺶ ﻣــﻲﺭﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺩﺍﻧﺸــﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺳــﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﻭ ﺣﻀﻮﺭ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﺁﻗﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻣﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﻌــﺪﻱ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻤــﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻛﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺣﻀﻮﺭ ﺩﺍﺷــﺘﻪﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻣــﺎﻡ ‪ 4‬ﻣﺤﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺸــﺨﺺ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺿــﻮﻉ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﺳﭙﺎﺭﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻃــﺮﻑ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍ ﻫﻢ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻳﻲﻫﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻭ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻘــﻼﺏ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻣــﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻳﻦﻛــﻪ ﺁﻳﺎ ﺑــﺎ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺑــﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻳﺎ ﺧﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﺩﭼﺎﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻋﻤﻴﻖ ﺑﻮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﮔﻔﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩﻱ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺑﺮژﻳﻨﺴﻜﻲ ﻭ ﻛﺴﻴﻨﺠﺮ ﻫﻮﺍﺩﺍﺭ ﺷﺎﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻣﻌﺘﻘــﺪ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺬﻫﺒﻲ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺑﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﺒﺎﺭﺯﻩ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺳــﻮﻱ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺯﻳﺮ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻪ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ ﻟﻴﻨﮕﻦ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳــﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺑــﺎ ﻃﻴﻒﻫﺎﻱ ﻟﻴﺒﺮﺍﻝ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺑﻴــﻮﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧــﺪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﺑﻤﺎﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﺭﺗﺮ ﻣﺪﻋﻲ‬

‫ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺎﻳﺰﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺣﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺸــﻜﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ ﻓﺮﺳﺘﺎﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭ ﺗﺎ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﮔﺰﻳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪﻧــﺪ ﻫﺎﻳﺰﺭ ﻣﺎﻣﻮﺭ ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻲ ﭼﻮﻥ ﺩﻳﺪﻩ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻱ‬ ‫ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎ ﺧﻴﻠﻲ ﺑﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺸــﺘﻪ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﺣﺘﻲ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺭﻓﺘﻦ ﺷــﺎﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻫﻢ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳــﺖ ﺧــﻮﺩ ﻛﺎﺭﺗﺮ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺷــﺎﻩ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻛﺎﺭﺗﺮ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﻃﺮﺍﺗﺸﺎﻥ ﻧﻮﺷﺘﻪﺍﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺗﺎﺏ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ)ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺷــﺎﻩ(‬ ‫ﺳــﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﺁﻣﺮﻳــﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﻬﺎﺟﻢ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴــﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻧﻤﻲﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻬﺎﺟﻢ ﺍﺯ ﺳــﻮﻱ ﺩﺍﻧﺸــﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﺮ ﺣﺎﻝ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﺴﺨﻴﺮ ﻻﻧﻪ ﺟﺎﺳﻮﺳﻲ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﻣــﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎ ﺭﺳــﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ‪ 52‬ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻳﻲ ‪ 444‬ﺭﻭﺯ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺁﻳﺎ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺗﺴﺨﻴﺮ ﺳﻔﺎﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﻮﺩ؟‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺧﺼــﻮﺹ ﺗﺴــﺨﻴﺮ ﻻﻧﻪ ﺟﺎﺳﻮﺳــﻲ‪ ،‬ﮔﺎﻫــﻲ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺚﻫﺎﻳــﻲ ﻣﻄــﺮﺡ ﻣﻲﺷــﻮﺩ ﻣﺒﻨﻲ ﺑــﺮ ﺍﻳﻦﻛﻪ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ‬

‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺿﺮﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺜﻼ ﺳــﺒﺐ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺣﺘﻲ ﺳــﺒﺐ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ ﺷــﻮﺭﻭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺧــﻲ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺤــﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑــﺎﺏ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻲﺭﺳــﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺩﺍﺷــﺖ ﻛــﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﻲ ﺑﺎﻳــﺪ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺐ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷــﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ ﺷــﻮﺭﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴــﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺩﺍﺷــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴــﺘﺎﻥ ﺳــﻌﻲ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﻣﻮﻓﻖ‬ ‫ﻧﺸــﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻳﻌﻨــﻲ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺻــﻮﺭﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴــﺘﺎﻥ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﺴﺨﻴﺮ ﺳﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺪﺍﺷﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺷــﻮﺭﻭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ ﮔﺴــﺘﺮﺵ ﻧﻔﻮﺫ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖ ﺣﺘﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﻢ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ ﻣﻲﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻧﻤﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻋﻲ ﺷــﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺻﺮﻓﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺯﻣﺎﻥﺑﻨﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﺷــﻮﺭﻭﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﮔﺮﻓﺘــﻪ ﺑــﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳــﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺪﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻓﺮﺻﺖ ﺧﻮﺑﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﺷــﻐﺎﻝ ﺍﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴــﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻳﻦﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻲ ﺑﺪﺍﻧﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺳــﺖ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ ،‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﺭﻭﺱﻫﺎ ﻣﺼﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ‬

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‫ﻣﻲﺩﺍﻧﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺬﺷــﺖ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣــﺎﻩ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻱ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥﻫــﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺳــﻤﺖ ﻧﻮﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺸــﺘﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺭﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻧــﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺛﻤﺮﻩ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺩﺍﻧﺸــﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺸــﺘﺖ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺭﻓﺖ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻪ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪﺳــﺎﺯ ﻭﺣﺪﺕ ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺧﻠﻊﺳــﻼﺡ ﭼﭗﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺮ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﭼﭗ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺧﻴﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺑﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻬﺮﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﻛﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﻤﻼ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﮕﺎﻥ ﺍﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﻣﻲﺷﺪ ﻳﻚ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺿﺪﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻳﻲ ﻗﻮﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺳﺮﺩﻣﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺼﻪ‬ ‫ﭼﭗﻫﺎ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﭼﭗﻫﺎ ﺧﻠﻊ ﺳﻼﺡ ﻣﻲﺷﺪﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣــﺪ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﻭﺍﻗﻌــﻪ‪ ،‬ﻛﻨﺎﺭﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻭ ﺣﺎﺷﻴﻪﻧﺸــﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺒﺮﺍﻝﻫﺎ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺑﻴﺸــﺘﺮﻱ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭﻱ ﻛــﻪ ﻣﺎ ﻣﻲﺑﻴﻨﻴﻢ ﺩﺭ ‪ 12‬ﺁﺫﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 58‬ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺎﻩ ﺑﻌﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﻪﭘﺮﺳﻲ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥﺍﺳﺎﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻛﺜﺮﻳﺖ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﻜــﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻤﺪﻩﺗﺮﻳــﻦ ﺩﻻﻳﻞ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﺩﺳــﺘﺎﻭﺭﺩ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺑﻲ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘــﻪ ﻣﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺍﺩﻳﻢ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻧﻴﺴــﺖ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻣﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺻﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻲ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻫﺮ ﻛﻨﺶ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻓﺎﻳﺪﻩﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﻨﺼﻔﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ ﺷــﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﻧﺒﺎﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﭼﺎﺭ ﺍﺣﺴﺎﺳــﺎﺕ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﻄﺤﻲ ﻭ ﺩﻡﺩﺳﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﻱ ﺟﺴــﺖ‪ .‬ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﻣﺴــﺎﺋﻞ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻪ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺟﺰء ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺟﺰء ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻄﺮﻓﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺼﻔﺎﻧــﻪ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻓﺎﻳﺪﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻓﺮﺍﻫﻢ ﺷــﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻲ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻗﻀﺎﻭﺕ ﻋﺎﺩﻻﻧﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻪﺟﺎﻧﺒــﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﻗﺎﻳﻊ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﺎﻫﻲ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﺴــﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﺴﺨﻴﺮ ﻻﻧﻪ ﺟﺎﺳﻮﺳﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﻋﺎﻳﺖ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬