Report on the Industrial & Logistics Market in Spain Madrid & Barcelona January 2016
jll.es
Logistics Madrid 4Q 2015:
Take up
The most active quarter last year, accounting for 47% of total take-up in sqm: 181,700
sqm
383,200 sqm
Madrid
taken up in 2015.
Logistics operators account for 75% of take up. •
4Q 2015 1st belt
8%
4Q 2015 2nd belt
28%
4Q 2015 3rd belt
64%
Thanks to the strength of the last quarter of 2015, logistics take-up in Madrid has remained stable in terms of volume, continuing its gradual improvement which began in 2012
Demand
Available Supply MAJOR DEALS IN 2015:
48% of deals are > 5,000 sqm
• •
Equivalent to 402,000 sqm
DHL: 25,000 sqm at Quer
During the last quarter of the year, 60% of the space taken up were transactions for over 20,000 sqm Of particular note is the fact that major deals were completed in the third belt in 4Q, in locations such as Torija and Tarancón.
Future Supply
Vacancy Rates: 6,10%
DIA (advised by JLL): 32,000 sqm at Miralcampo (Azuqueca de Henares)
• •
2nd Belt: 5.22% 3rd Belt: 12.03%
The vacancy rate for logistics space fell by 45% in 2015, mainly thanks to the increase in take-up in the third belt, There is a lack of warehouse properties of over 20,000 sqm
• A pick-up in speculative developments and turnkey projects is expected
60% of future supply under
41%
already has a tenant
313,800 sqm under construction
10
1st Belt: 4.07%
On Point · Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January 2016
construction is located in the second belt and is expected to
59%
speculative
be completed in 2016 and 2017
Rental levels Madrid
Logistics
10 €
Rental Levels 8€ €/sqm/month
Rents Logistics
6€
2€
•
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Max.
1 belt
4,25 €
4,75 €
3,10 €
3,60 €
3 belt
2,00 €
2,90 €
rd
2007
Min.
2nd belt
st
4€
0€
4 T 2015 Rent €/ sqm/month
2015
Logistics rental levels have held firm across all Madrid belts thanks to stabilising take-up levels. Prime rental levels have held firm at €4.75/sqm/month. Maximum rental levels in the second belt remain at €3.60 /sqm/month, while rental levels in the third belt have also been maintained at €2.90/sqm/month.
Industrial Rents in €/sqm/month
Purchase prices in €/sqm 3.000 €
10 € 8€
2.000 €
4,50 €
6€ 2€
•
650 €
1.000 €
4€ 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0€
2015
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
The rental and purchase prices for industrial warehouses in all belts remained stable in the last quarters of 2015 and this trend is expected to continue in the short term
Land Madrid Prices
Rental levels in €/sqm/ month 800 €
600 €
400 €
Land prices registered a year-on-
year increase of over 12% in both the first and third belts, while prices remained stable in the second belt.
200 €
First belt 185,00 € Second belt 140,00 € Third belt 90,00 €
0€
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
On Point · Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January 2016
11
Logistics Barcelona 1Q 2015: The most active quarter last year, accounting for 37% of total take-up in 2015
Take up
564,273 sqm
Barcelona
taken up in 2015.
Logistics operators accounted for 71% of take-up in 2015
4Q 2015 1st belt
17%
4Q 2015 2nd belt
33%
4Q 2015 3rd belt
50%
• Logistics take-up grew 78% in 2015 on the previous year, a record figure in Catalonia.
Available Supply
Demand MAJOR DEALS IN 2015:
74% of deals are > 5,000 sqm
• •
One of the reasons behind these strong take-up figures is the expected demand coupled with the lack of future supply 10% of logistics take-up involved companies specialising in e-commerce.
Future Supply
Vacancy rates: 4.34%
Decathlon: 40,000 sqm at Sant Esteve Sesrovires Grupo Arnedo: 37,300 sqm at Santa Oliva
Equivalent to 290,000 sqm
•
1st belt: 4.59% 2nd belt: 1.83% 3rd belt: 7.57%
Vacancy rates have fallen by almost half over the course of 2015 due to the strong take-up figures and the lack of product.
• An increase in speculative and turnkey developments is expected, due to the lack of quality supply, especially large floor areas.
81%
already has a tenant
178,607 sqm under construction
12
On Point · Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January 2016
20%
speculative
84% of future supply under construction is located in the second belt
Rental levels Barcelona
Logistics
Rental levels in €/sqm/month
10 € 8€ 6€ 4€ 2€ 0€
Rents Logistics
6,75 €
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4 Q 2015 Rent €/sqm/month Min.
Max.
1st belt
5,50 €
6,75 €
2nd belt
3,75 €
5,00 €
3rd belt
2,50 €
3,50 €
Logistics rental levels held firm in all belts in 4Q 2015. Barcelona is in second place in Europe in terms of projected rental growth until 2019, behind Dublin but ahead of Madrid, with average annual growth of 5.1%.
Industrial Purchase prices €/sqm
Rental levels €/sqm/month
3.000 €
10 € 8€
5,25 €
6€
1.000 €
4€ 2€
1.200 €
2.000 €
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0€
2015
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Rental prices for industrial warehouses in all belts have remained consistently stable since the end of 2013. Purchase prices have continued to track a stable trend from 2013 to present.
Land Barcelona Prices
BARCELONA Industrial Land Prices €/sqm
800 €
600 €
400 €
200 €
0€
2010
2011
2012 First belt min. 150,00 €
2013
2014
2015
First belt max. 400,00 €
On Point · Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January 2016
13
Investment Market
SOCIMIS added over 1 million sqm of logistics
warehouses to their portfolios between 2014 and 2015
Investment volume 2015
Allegra Europea Holding 7%
Axiare 6%
GreenOak 31%
Other
Merlin & GreenOak together accounted for 65% of the total investment volume in logistics warehouses in Spain
Merlin Properties 34%
Main transactions in Spain Province
SQM
Total Price (millions)
Seller
Buyer
Guadalajara
103,536
€46.1
Inversiones Montepino
Merlin Properties
Madrid
48
€ 30
Inversiones Montepino
Rockspring
Azuqueca de Henares
Guadalajara
60
€30.3
Maxilogistics
Allegra Europea Holding
Masalaves & Zaragoza
Valencia
64,285
€29.5
Prologis
GreenOak
Getafe
Madrid
32,552
€ 26
Banca March
GreenOak
Meco
Madrid
35,134
€22.9
Kefren Capital RE
Merlin Properties
Coslada
Madrid
28,49
€20.9
Inversiones Subel
Merlin Properties
Madrid & Valencia
43,101
€18.5
UBS
Lar
Tarragona
42,253
€ 15
AXA Real Estate Funds
Axiare (Axia Real Estate Socimi)
Alava
29,7
€11.2
City of Vitoria-Gasteiz JV Basque Govt.
Kefren Capital RE & Brunswick Invest
Vizcaya
14,299
€8.6
Zazpitegi
GreenOak
Location Cabanillas del Campo Torrejon de Ardoz
Alovera & Almussafes Constanti Vitoria Galdacano
14
On Point · Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January 2016
Investment Volume Investment Volume in millions of €
900 800
Nr. Operations 2015
700 Other Areas [PORCENT AJE]
600 500 400
Barcelona [PORCENT AJE]
300 200
Madrid [PORCENT AJE]
100 0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Direct Investment Corporate transactions
Direct + Corporate deals: €725 million
Yields in Madrid and Barcelona
6,75%
Compression
10,00% 8,00%
Prime yields have dropped from 7.25% to 6.75%.
6,75%
6,00% 4,00%
Yield levels in Madrid Yield levels in Barcelona
2,00% 0,00%
Clock
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Kiev, Oslo Cologne, Munich Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Hanover Rental Growth Slowing
Rents Falling
Rental Growth Accelerating
Rents Bottoming Out
Stockholm London Birmingham, Jeddah, Riyadh, Rotterdam, Stuttgart
Moscow Western Europe
Barcelona, Madrid
Eastern Europe
Bucharest, Manchester Leeds, Lyon, Milan, Rome Lisbon
Middle East and Africa
Dublin Warsaw
Zagreb Abu Dhabi, Antwerp, Athens, Belgrade, Bratislava, Brussels, Budapest, Dubai, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Helsinki, Istanbul, Johannesburg, Lille, Marseille, Paris, Prague, St. Petersburg
On Point · Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January 2016
15
Key Trends 2015
Funds have widened their investment criteria and geographical scope to include other important cities such as Zaragoza, Bilbao, Valencia. There were three relevant corporate transactions: 1. Acquisition of Testa by Merlin Properties 2. The entry of Merlin Properties into the shareholders group of the Barcelona ZAL 3. Acquisition of all GE Real Estate by Blackstone Lack of opportunities and strong investor appetite. International funds join SOCIMIS as leading market players.
What about 2016? Yield compression will continue due to the lack of prime opportunities Leading SOCIMIS intend to increase their exposure to logistics assets. CORE funds are actively pursuing large opportunities. In view of the lack of opportunities, Forward Funding/ Forward Purchase and Sale & Leaseback structures will be adopted as new strategies. It exists optimism with regard to the Spanish macroeconomic fundamentals, specially internal consumer consumption
Contacts Industrial & Logistics Luis Guardia
Head of Industrial & Logistics Business luis.guardia@eu.jll.com
Borja Ortega de Pablo
Head of Sales & Investment, Capital Markets borja.ortegadepablo@eu.jll.com
Pere Morcillo
Head of Industrial & Logistics Agency pere.morcillo@eu.jll.com
Research Elsa Galindo
Head of Research España elsa.galindo@eu.jll.com
Laura Caballero
Marketing & Research Subdirector laura.caballero@eu.jll.com
JLL Offices Madrid
Barcelona
Sevilla
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