2nd Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
March 2016
jll.es
March 2016
Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
Contents
1. Introduction.....................................................................................4 2. Economic & Real Estate Context....................................................6 3. Highlights........................................................................................9 4. Investors appetite...........................................................................10 5. What are investors looking for?.................................................... 11 6. Disposal criteria............................................................................13 7. Investors sentiment towards Spain................................................14 8. Mergers & Acquisitions / RECAP.................................................15 9. Conclusions...................................................................................16
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March 2016
Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
1.- Introduction
Aim of the survey
It is our great pleasure to present you the 2nd edition of the 2016 Commercial Real Estate Investors Survey. •
JLL and IESE Business School, two recognized organizations within the Financial Education and Real Estate sectors, leaded this project for the second time.
•
The Investors Survey reflects investor sentiment on the Commercial Real Estate market in Spain.
•
Understanding the expectations of the key players in the market and having an insight into their objectives and investment policies will contribute to greater transparency in the sector.
•
This is an objective that both JLL and IESE have focused on for some time and set in motion with the first Investors Survey of the Spanish market, presented in 2015.
•
In addition, sharing the investment sentiment of relevant sector players; reading their comments and looking at the property statistics published in this report, will help to understand the current market status and its future outlook.
“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” Warren Buffett
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March 2016
Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
Survey metrics Number of participants
101
Survey period
Nov 2015 - Feb 2016
National participants
35 (35%)
International participants
66 (65%)
Answer were gathered by phone, online and direct interviews
Respondents by investor type What type of investor is your company? Insurance Co 6% Multi-Strategy Fund 7%
Private Equity Fund 29%
Real Estate Private Limited Co 22%
REIT /Publicly Traded Co 19%
•
Family Office 17%
Respondents by risk profile
Which investment vehicle does your company use?
Others 2%
Value-Add 40%
The Survey was carried out via face-to-face and telephone interviews in 90% of cases and extended via an online survey. Respondents include a wide range of investor profiles and types.
Respondents by investment vehicle
What is the investor profile of your company?
Opportunistic 18%
•
Others 7%
Core 18%
Open-ended pooled funds 23%
Joint Ventures 26% Core+ 22%
Segregated/ Separated accounts 19%
5
Close-ended pooled funds 25%
Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
March 2016
2.- Economic & Real Estate context
3.2%
Economic overview •
2015 macroeconomic data has now corroborated that Spain’s economic recovery has taken hold. With GDP growth of 3.2% in 2015 (which doubled the Eurozone average), according to the IMF, Spain grew the most out of all of the European countries.
•
With the creation of more than half a million jobs, the highest increase since 2006, Spain enjoyed the highest rate of job creation in the Eurozone in 2015.
•
Spain also headed the increase in productivity among the main European economies in the post-crisis years. According to Eurostat, since 2010 the productivity per hour worked increased by 7% in Spain, compared to 3% in the Eurozone.
•
• •
In 2015 Spain’s GDP grew by
its private indebtedness the most during the crisis. In large part this deleveraging was forced on it, due to the sharp restriction in access to credit from 2010 onwards.
Despite the fact that Spain continued to run a trade balance deficit, during 2015 the upsurge in exports helped to reduce the deficit by 9.3% up until May 2015, which was the opposite to 2014. Exports now account for more than 23% of GDP. Inflation stood at -0.5% in 2015, due to the continued fall in oil prices, but the underlying rate remained stable, which is a sign of the continued recovery. From the European Union, Spain is the country that has reduced
GDP Growth Forecast in EMEA 2016
Spain, fastest growing economy in Europe
Source: Oxford Economics
6
•
At the end of 2015, household debt fell by 16% of GDP since 2007, which is equivalent to €165Bn, compared to pre-crisis levels.
•
Debt for non-financial businesses fell by more than €300Bn, since the onset of the crisis. The decrease in debt during the crisis (families and businesses) amounts to 45% of GDP.
•
Although the total indebtedness of the private sector is decreasing, families and businesses are capitalising on the return of liquidity to the market and are again taking on new financing.
•
The tourist sector is still booming. Spain is the third most visited country in the world, with 68 million tourists in 2015 (close to 5% more than in 2014).
•
Up to November 2015 international tourists spent an accumulated €4Bn, 6.4% more than in the same period the year before.
Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
March 2016
Real Estate market overview •
•
In 2007 the Spanish Real Estate market was hit by a double crisis. A global financial crisis and a residential sector crisis that hammered both the investment market and the occupier market for 7 years.
all-time record in 2015 surpassing even the figures registered in 2006, with a total of €9.2Bn according to JLL data.
Investment fell by 75% from maximum levels in 2006, dragging market values down to record lows. At the same time, lettings and rents fell drastically in all sectors. No sector went unaffected.
•
Take-up is rising, which is pushing rents up. The occupier market appears to slowly but surely be coming back in line with the investment market.
•
The residential market is showing signs of stabilising. Up to Q3 2015, 286,176 homes were sold, a 12.8% y-o-y increase. 12% of these sales were to foreigners. The number of housing starts in Q1 2015 stood at 10,000 homes, a 25.5% y-o-y increase.
•
After this major setback, Spain’s Real Estate market appears to have emerged fitter and stronger.
•
The sector has become more professional with new players in the market. REITs legislation has been a resounding success and investment has returned with a bang.
•
Housing prices grew by 1.4% in Q3 2015 compared to the previous year, reaching a national average of €1,476 per sqm (Source: Ministerio de Fomento).
•
Spain has won back the interest of investors. Investment is up by five times what it was at its lowest point in 2012 and hit a new
•
Land and development on the rise.
“In Real Estate, you make 10% of your money because you’re a genius and 90% because you catch a great wave” Jeff Greene Direct investment in Commercial RE in Spain (€ Mill.) 10,000 9,000 8,000
Mill .(€)
7,000
Industrial
6,000
Hotels
5,000
Retail
4,000
Office
3,000 2,000 1,000 0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: JLL
7
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
March 2016
Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
Variation in employment and office take-up Take Up Madrid
Take up Barcelona
Job Creation (%)
600,000
right scale
500,000
477,969
400,000
398,084
4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0%
SQM 300,000
-2.0% -3.0%
200,000
-4.0% -5.0%
100,000
-6.0% 0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-7.0%
Source: JLL
•
Of particular interest were Madrid and Barcelona, both of which have robust growth forecasts and potential.
•
According to the “JLLGlobal 300” report (Dec.15), Madrid stands in 31st place in the economic and real estate ranking. According to the JLL “Globalisation and Competition” report (Nov 2015), Barcelona belongs to the “New World Cities”, being seen as a cultural, leisure and tourism hub.
•
After the upturn in investment thanks to strong liquidity in the markets, the rental market is now on the up. Economic growth and associated job creation are driving a recovery in the Real Estate occupier market.
Change in office rents Prime Rent Madrid
Prime Rent Barcelona
45
40.00
40 35 30
27.25
26.50
25
20.00
20 15 10
Source: JLL
8
2015
2 014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
2006
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March 2016
Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
3.- Highlights What do investors say?
1
2
Rents are rising
Liquidity will remain high (from both equity and debt sides)
Rents are driven by economic situation up to a certain extent, and given the Spanish GDP outlook, rents will continue to rise.
National and international banks and capital markets are providing lending to investors in order to improve their P&L results given low interest rates.
Employment grew by half a million people in 2015 pushing prime and secondary office rents up.
Bank financing is generally provided for plain vanilla transactions, while for more complex deals, alternative lenders are sought.
Logistics and High Street rents have grown given the improvement in national spending and consumer confidence (consumption and e-commerce uplift).
On the equity side, funds, PE firms and family offices have cash to invest, and given the scarcity of product in the market prices are going up.
3
4 Value added is king Lack of prime quality product is drifting investors to assess wider spreads of assets based on location, potential value uplift and ability to implement a Business Plan to meet required yields.
Investors are watching the political situation
Spain’s main challenge is its political uncertainty, but the new Government is unlikely to change Spain’s legal stability.
The vast majority of investors are looking to invest in value-added properties. Refurbishments and repositioning are taking place.
Respondents expect that politicians will continue to follow much the same economic strategy.
Little or no investment in Capex by owners over the past 6-7 years, due to the lack of access to financing during the financial crisis.
Various investors mentioned their concern regarding local authorities granting necessary permits, for instance in Barcelona.
This is the case in virtually all sectors, but primarily in offices, hotels, logistics and residential. And to a lesser extent, shopping centers that have not carried out sufficient maintenance in the past.
Generally speaking, investors demand a clear regulatory framework and transparent processes in order to speed up investment decisions.
Alternative sectors such as Student Housing and Healthcare have also become attractive for a large number of investors. There are also a number of refurbishments and new developments in these sectors.
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March 2016
Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
4.- Investors appetite: 89% of respondents continue to have a high or very high appetite for the Spanish market, very similar percentage than previous year Investor appetite What is the current investment appetite of your company for the Spanish market? Low 10%
Very High 38%
High 51%
•
The minimum investment required has also decreased due to the lack of prime product, and there is potential to reduce further.
•
The majority of investors are looking to invest in value-added properties.
•
In terms of bank portfolios and Sareb, both of non- performing loans (NPL´s) as well as foreclosed properties (REOs), some investors point out the improvement in transparency of the processes and approvals. However, they also criticise the stance of some insolvency administrators, and point out that more clarity is required, with processes and rules that are easier to follow in order for them not to become protracted.
•
These sectors require investment in order to achieve value uplift in the portfolios, although the investor that initially acquired the portfolio does not always carry out the Capex.
•
Despite yield compression, there is a trend to move to real asset worldwide, being considered to be a good investment alternative as part of a diversified portfolio, compared to investment in debt that offers low returns or investing in the stock market which is more volatile – as demonstrated in the final months of 2015 and the start of 2016.
•
The greater access to financing is helping investors that leverage their properties to achieve their targeted IRRs, as the yield compression is partially compensated with the drop in bank margins spread and 0% interest rates.
•
Various investors suggest that rents are rising slower than prices, although rents have already risen in prime areas, and since Q4 2015, slight rental increases were also registered in secondary areas.
•
Those surveyed agree that regulation of REITs has successfully reactivated the market.
•
88% of respondents agree that financing, which was one of the key problems just a few years ago, is improving. Although some respondents mentioned that Spanish banks continue to be conservative for non plain vanilla deals.
Investment constraints expected for 2016
Investment constraints in 2015 By % of survey respondents Worse Market uncertainty
By % of survey respondents Better
Worse
80
Bank lending
88
Lack of product
68
Political uncertainty
70
Political uncertainty
73
Lack of product
71
Competition
79
Higher prices
74
10
Better
Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
March 2016
5.- What are investors looking for? Investment strategy: Investment volume allocated to Spain
Leveraging
In line with the results of the first Investors Survey in 2015, two groups of investors stood out in terms of lot sizes, those with target investments of up to €100M and those with an investment target of over €100M.
The majority of those surveyed (88%) look for LTVs of less than 60%. Only 12% of those surveyed are looking for LTVs higher than this. 120,0%
87,7%
100,0%
38,4%
45,0%
40,0%
31,5%
35,0%
20,0%
15,1%
46,6%
60,0%
15,1%
20,0% 10,0%
5,0%
0,0% 0,0%
0€ - 100€
41,1%
40,0%
15,0%
0€ - 30€
100€ - 150€
> 150€
12,3%
34,3%
12,3% 0
< 50%
< 60%
Investors have reduced their return expectations, 63% of investors (vs 70% in 2015) are looking for an IRR of more than 8%.
The vast majority of investors opted for the direct purchase of properties, which were either income-producing or for development, compared to indirect investment.
120,0%
81,7%
100,0%
80,0%
60,0%
What types of investment interests you?
Portfolios Distressed, REOs, PLs, NPLs 13%
40,0%
20,0%
Others 1%
0,0%
17,1% 17,1% 4% < x ≤ 6%
36,6%
18,3%
19,5% 6% < x ≤ 8%
8% < x ≤ 14%
> 14%
67% of those surveyed are considering an investment term of less than 7 years.
Property purchase 41%
100,0%
66,7%
80,0%
Indirect investment (Shares) 14%
100,0%
45,1%
120,0%
Corporate 13%
< 80%
Required IRR
Investment type
Development 18%
12,3%
80,0%
30,0%
25,0%
100,0%
60,0%
39,8%
87,1% 20,4%
100,0% 12,9%
26,9%
40,0%
20,0%
39,8%
0,0%
< 5 years
< 7 years
< 10 years
> 10 years
Property Quality In terms of the properties in your portfolio that you do not consider to be Grade A, what do you plan to do with them?
Nothing planned 8%
Full refurbishment to hold in portfolio 43%
40% of respondents believe that less than 20% of their portfolio is Grade A, and 79% expect to increase Capex/carry out some form of works to gain value uplift in their properties, either to hold them in their portfolio or to then sell them. This is in line with the impression that there are many properties (especially offices) that have not been refurbished and therefore have lower rents, and are not as well located as higher quality properties. Occupiers are no longer just looking at the basic cost when searching for spaces, but also the quality of the property.
Sell after carrying out works 36%
Sell without carrying out any works 13%
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Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
March 2016
Investment criteria for leased properties: WAULT
Sectors
As most of the investors surveyed are Value Added, 50% (compared to 46% in 2015) of investors prefer short lease agreements of less than three years, in order to capitalise on expected rental uplift.
36,8%
0%
Offices continue to be the most sought after product by investors, followed by logistics properties.
34,5%
0% 0% 0%
16,1%
12,6%
0% 0%
53% 46% 44% 41% 41% 38% 31%
Offices Madrid-Barcelona Logistic Shopping Centres High Street Hotels Residential Land
0% ,0% ,0%
< 1 year
< 3 years
< 5 years
< 10 years
Shopping centres are in 3rd place, but they are not suitable for all investor profiles, due to the high levels of management required.
*WAULT (Weighted Average Unexpired Lease Term)
Initial Yield
Level of risk
The most sought after properties are those with yields of between 5% and 7%. Although 26% (compared to 9% in 2015) would accept lower yields of between 3% and 5%.
Investors are primarily looking for value-add properties. 54% of investors are looking for vacant properties or properties to renovate in order to achieve higher returns. 11%
40,2% 40,3%
45,0%
40,0%
35,0%
30,0%
33%
27,3%
26,0%
12%
Income producing assets Assets with vacancy
25,0%
6,5%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
Assets to be restructured
5,0%
0,0%
3% - 5%
5% - 7%
7% - 9%
> 9%
Pre market developments
23%
76% consider tenant covenant strength to be important.
45,0%
40,0%
21%
43,7% 43,8%
50,0%
32,5%
•
Interest is driven by rental growth forecasts.
•
However, 33% of core investors are looking for product without construction or rental risk.
•
Accordingly, investor appetite is reemerging for land, residential, commercial property and logistics developments.
•
The logistics investment sector perceives growing occupier demand, fueled by the strong e-commerce sector.
35,0%
17,5%
30,0%
25,0%
6,3%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
Very good
Good
Medium
Developments
Uncertain
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Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
6.- Disposal Criteria In the short term, investors do not appear to be looking to divest. The majority of investors are looking to capitalise on an anticipated rise in rents prior to selling, which is not expected to happen for at least 18 months. Those who are looking to divest would preferably do so with shopping centres and residential.
% in Sectors in which the investors are willing to divest in 1-2 years 0,0
Shopping Centres Residential Offices Madrid-Barcelona CBD/Center Offices Madrid-Barcelona Secondary / Land High Street Hotels Logistic
8%
0,2
15% 14% 13% 13% 11% 10% 10%
•
Disposal policies and time frames depend on “property type and timing required to achieve the repositioning or the expected value uplift”.
•
In contrast, as mentioned by some investors, “the Government has a great deal to sell”.
•
A residential investor commented: “Landowners are the ones that set the prices, who are the funds that purchased from the original owners”.
•
Sellers are well aware of the minimum price they need to achieve in order to obtain their return and as they acquired in the last 2 years their IRR will be 15-17%.
•
They are not in any rush to sell. If they do not get what they want, they will have to adjust their prices.
“Buy land, they’re not making it anymore.” Mark Twain
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Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
March 2016
7.- Investors sentiment towards Spain
How long will market values continue to increase?
Which countries compete with Spain?
•
60% of respondents estimate that values will continue to rise for at least another 18 months.
•
This is fuelled by low interest rates, improved access to financing and the recovery of economic fundamentals.
•
National political uncertainty, as well as international factors (growth in China, US and EU economic policies), could put a halt to this upward cycle.
•
Some experts predict that this cycle will be less pronounced and shorter than the previous one.
•
There are market sectors and locations that are running at different speeds. Many investors see an upturn in the logistics sector, as well as residential, due to the strong price corrections registered during the crisis years.
•
In terms of housing, “prices are still 30-40% below 2008 levels”. This correction is consistent with the six years of income required to purchase a home in Spain, compared to the average of 4 years in Europe.
•
Prices have now corrected and it is expected that nominal prices will grow faster than real prices in the future.
•
The upsurge in national demand fuelled by an increase in employment, along with international demand attracted by low values, should sustain growth in market values.
•
The amount of unsold housing stock fell below 400,000 units and many talk about “unsellable homes”.
•
The increase in value of offices located in secondary areas will be greater than in prime areas, although values will continue to increase in the latter.
•
Generally speaking, investors still see room for improvement in relation to yields, but believe that they will hit their limit in 1 or 2 years time, at which point they will stabilise due to the anticipated increase in interest rates.
•
The rental cycle is expected to be favourable for at least the next 4 years, although if the economy continues to remain stable and improve, this timeframe could be extended.
•
In the short term, the rise in market values will come off the back of both yield compression, as well as rents, although some respondents did comment that rents are not currently increasing rapidly.
•
The investors studying Spain are generally analysing the whole of Southern Europe, comparing the yields and risks of each country.
•
Investors point to Italy and Portugal as being Spain’s main competitors, with initial yields at rd. 100-150 bps above Spain. Some American funds pointed out that they are studying transactions in Portugal, especially hotel and residential projects.
•
However, the small size of the Portuguese market, its economy and less dynamic real estate markets make it less appealing than Spain, despite that fact that yields are currently hardening.
•
In contrast, Italy is on many investors’ radar. “Spain is always compared with Italy” “Italy competes with us with yields that are 100 bps above ours.”
•
Some of those surveyed also mentioned the main European markets, such as Paris and London, but their high prices make them less appealing than Spain. “In France product is scarce and very expensive”.
•
Investors point out that Spain (primarily Madrid and Barcelona) could continue to be competitive at current yields (or even at lower yields) compared to other leading European markets.
•
Spain offers greater legal and economic stability than other target countries, but investors continue to point out that Spain’s political situation needs to be clarified.
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March 2016
Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
8.- Mergers & Acquisitions / RECAP Top five sectors by value of deals across Spain 2009-2014
Evolution of Real Estate M&A market by volume and type 5.000
6.2Bn Industrials
4.000
11.3Bn TMT
3.000 2.000
15.6Bn Real Estate
1.000
75.2Bn Financials
0
18Bn Energy&Power
2008
2009
Source: Dealogic
2010
REITs
2011
2012
Servicers
2013
2014
2015
Pure M&A
2016 YTD
% of M&A Real Estate deals compared to the Real Estate market (excluding transactions carried out by banks), by volume
Source: Dealogic
•
In 2013 international investment sentiment shifted towards Spain and it came back on to investors’ radars.
•
In terms of 2016, the takeover bid for 69% of Realia (€120Mn) is still currently pending completion and we expect to see more M&A deals.
•
In 2014 international investment in Spanish Real Estate gathered pace and REITs burst on to the scene, accounting for a large part of the investment volume in the sector.
•
•
As is only logical, to begin with, investors focused on acquiring properties. The product on offer, aside from a few specific cases, satisfied the needs of a wide array of different investors. Consequently, investment involved anything from the acquisition of NPL portfolios to Trophy Assets, to value-add properties.
Demand will come from REITs looking for greater consolidation, specialisation and re-IPO processes, from international funds looking for more complex deals, where they do not have so much competition, or national companies looking for international partners, in order to form strategic co-investment and development alliances.
•
RECAP
These major asset deals did not mean that we did not see some major M&A deals, examples were the acquisition of Neinor in 2014 by Lone Star (€1.0Bn), Tree Inversiones by Merlin (€1.9Bn) or the acquisition of Testa in 2015, also by Merlin Properties (€1.7Bn).
•
Continued low interest rates and the shift in investment strategies towards less opportunistic positions, has led many investors to search for more permanent and efficient capital structures.
•
Given that national banks and capital markets are also providing lending, as well as overseas banks, many investors are readjusting their capital structures, substituting equity for debt and fixing their terms in the medium to long term.
•
This has been the strategy of REITs, other listed companies, servicers, as well as some developers. This has been translated into the refinancing of liabilities, in some cases via bond issues, and the fixing of interest rates via medium term swaps, in order to match the terms and conditions of the debt with the life cycle of the investment portfolio.
•
Refinancing has allowed some private equity funds to recover part or all of their equity investment (for example, some funds that invested in purchasing a servicer).
Real Estate Investment (total) by investor origin 100% 80%
22,1%
17,0%
19,3%
14,1% 45,6%
51,0%
54,4%
49,0%
2012
2013
36,4%
34,4%
63,6%
65,6%
2014
2015
60% 40%
77,9%
83,0%
80,7%
85,9%
20% 0%
2008
Source: Dealogic
2009
2010
2011 Spain
% Rest
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Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
March 2016
9.- Conclusions There continues to be strong interest in investing in Spain from all investors type, mainly in the long term. New investors, with different strategies, continue to enter the Spanish market, attracted by higher yields than those obtained in most of the major European economies. In the short term, the biggest challenge Spain faces is political uncertainty. Investment in all types of properties seems equally attractive. We are beginning to see institutional investors taking positions in the residential market, via development and renovation projects.
Interest in Spain, Investment Types & Typical Investment
There is strong appetite for value-add properties, fuelled by the lack of prime properties and high occupier demand for quality assets. Value-add Investors are not concerned about WAULT (Weighted Average Unexpired Lease Term) due to the anticipated increase in rents and because they are looking for properties to be repositioned and refurbished, which tends to imply new lease agreements and rental renegotiations. There is growing interest in investing in alternative properties, such as Student Housing and Healthcare. The sharp consolidation of the investment market and the logical shift in financial entity strategies will be highly conductive to M&A deals being carried out in the upcoming months. The typical investment is of €30m-€100m, with a 50%-60% of debt financing, pursuing a 8%-14% IRR, and targeting an initial yield of 5%-7%. The rent uplift expectations limits the desirable weighted average unexpired lease term to less than 3 years. The most common investment term is less than 5 years. Prime and secondary offices in Madrid and Barcelona are the preferred asset classes, followed by logistics, shopping centers and High Street. The logistics assets continue to be attractive due to the e-commerce boost. Hotels lost two ranking positions compared to last year’s survey when it was the third most preferred asset. In terms of the large REO and NPL portfolios, although investors admit that there has been a marked improvement, they request that local authorities play a more active role in preparing a regulatory framework that is transparent and helps to speed up the sale processes.
Evolution of Capital Values and Rents
Capital Values are expected to continue to increase at least for another 18 months, due to yields holding stable or even falling slightly (there is little room for further yield compression) and subsequently via rental increases. The recovery in take-up is now a reality. Although there is a general expectation that rents will rise (now at record low levels) some investors believe that there are Business Plans with very aggressive rental uplift estimations. Property price rises will very much depend on how much the rent increases will really be. There is an increased appetite to lend in Spain and willingness to move lending up the risk curve.
Debt
Debt will play a greater role in Real Estate investments, which will result in more complex and leveraged deals. Simultaneous financing to purchase is becoming more popular among investors. Record low interest rates and lower bank margins spread, are slightly compensating for yield compression and are allowing investors to use debt to achieve their expected returns. The sector is more professional and is moving towards niche specialisation. The main determining constraints for investment are higher prices, the lack of product and political uncertainty.
Sector Situation and Competition
The market is becoming slightly more transparent. Investors are not looking to divest in the short term, thanks to overall confidence that property prices will hold or increase in value in the short to medium term. Portugal and Italy are Spain’s most direct competitors, where yields are 100 - 150 bps higher. Given that Portugal is a smaller market, Italy presents the most direct competition. Spain’s strong point is that it is perceived to have a greater legal and economic stability.
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“Buying Real Estate is not only the best way, the quickest way, the safest way, but the only way to become wealthy” Marshall Field
Participants in the Survey that authorized to provide their names • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Acciona RE Allegra Allianz Arcano Ares Autonomy Avignon AXA Axiare Bankinter Baraka BBVA Cerro de los Gamos Colonial Consorcio Compensacion de Seguros Copernicus Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management Drago Capiral Europa Capital FRO Generali GMP Gorbea Green Oak Grosvenor Grupo Iberostar Hermanos Revilla HIG Hines Hispania
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
HNA IBA Capital Iberdrola Inmobiliaria Ibosa IDI Gazeley Internos Global Investors Invesco Lar España LIM MDSR Meridia Merlin Metrovacesa Monthisa Mutualidad de la Abogacia Oaktree Orion Phoenix Pradera Proprium Capital Partners Realia Redevco Rujoma Springwater Stam Europe Torre Rioja Triuva (antiguo IVG) Ventas Reit Vitruvio Zaphir
Investors Survey Commercial Real Estate Spain
March 2016
The report
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For over fifty years, IESE, the graduate business school of the University of Navarra, has been at the forefront of management education, developing and inspiring business leaders who strive to make a deep, positive and lasting impact on the people, companies and society they serve. IESE’s success is built on a humanistic approach to business and leadership, complemented by a world class faculty producing ground-breaking research; the global scope of its programs, faculty, students and campuses; a practical and relevant teaching methodology; and a growing alumni network of 40,000 professionals world-wide prepared to take on today’s challenges and lead business into the future.
Editorial Leadership Team Investor Survey IESE - JLL Chairs • Prof. José Luis Suárez, IESE Business School • Benoit Du Passage, President JLL Authors • Jorge Valenzuela, JLL • Elsa Galindo, JLL • Salvador Pastor, JLL • Lali de Juan, IESE Business School • Gema Garrido Calleja, JLL • Irene Verdes-Montenegro, JLL • Margarita Cuadra Espinar, JLL ULI Editorial and Production Staff • Nina Priakhina, JLL • Mónica Matas, JLL • Luis Antonio Fernández, JLL Investors Survey in Real Estate® is a trademark of JLL and is registered in the United States and other countries. All rights reserved. ©Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. 2016
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Contacts Jorge Valenzuela
JLL – Head Debt Advisory. Capital Markets, Iberia T: +34 91 789 11 00 / M+ 34 672 785 906 jorge.valenzuela@eu.jll.com
Borja Ortega de Pablo
JLL – Head Sales & Investments. Capital Markets Spain T: +34 91 789 11 00 borja.ortega@eu.jll.com
Salvador Pastor
JLL – Head of Mergers & Acquisitions T: +34 91 789 11 00 salvador.pastor@eu.jll.com
Prof. José Luis Suárez IESE - Business School IESE Professor T: +34 91 211 30 00 JSuarez@iese.edu
Lali de Juan
IESE - Business School Research Assistant T: +34 91 211 30 00 ldejuan@iese.edu
Elsa Galindo
JLL - Head of Research T: +34 91 789 11 00 elsa.galindo@eu.jll.com
© 2016 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. Investors Survey in Real Estate® is a trademark of JLL and is registered in the United States and other countries. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. All such documentation and information remains the property of Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be kept confidential. Reproduction of any part of this document is authorized only to the extent necessary for its evaluation. It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorization of Jones Lang LaSalle. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof. jll.es