Issue 22: Covid 19 - The Leaning Edge by KCLdialogue

Covid-19:

The Leaning Edge 22

READ OUR OLD ISSUES AT KCLPOLITICS.ORG

Spring 2020

Protest Theory, Latin American Protests and Algerias Revolution

Spring 2018

Populism, coup d’etat, Francafrique, North Korean and Russian Foreign Policy and Tensions

Autumn 2019

Rising Waters, Social Revolution, Veganism and United Against Climate Change

Autumn 2017

Post Truth Era, Cybersecutity and Digital Censorship, UKIP Effect on Immigration

Spring 2019

Moro Conflict, Digital Borders, Race of the Artic and Mobility across Borders

Spring 2017

Politics of Hate, Rise of Rightwing Parties across the World and Turkey’s Failed Coup

Autumn 2018

Putin Cup, Malaysia financial crisis, Digital Deplomacy and its crisis

Autumn 2016

China Economic Powers, Instability of Global Markets, Upcoming Recession

Spring 2016 Reframing Financial Landscapes and Terrorism - Autumn 2015 Revisiting European Conflicts and Security Issues - Spring 2015 Justice in Palestinensa, Umbrella Movement, Corruption in Brazil Winter 2014 Rise of ISIS, Legalisation of Sex Work and Marijuana, Obama Erosion of International Norms Do you want to get support us or get involved? We are also interested in your feedback for future improvements. Email us at: kcldialogue@gmail.com or find us on social media. You can find us on Facebook and Instagram under @kclpolitics. Thank you for reading and supporting our work! We are connected with the Kings College London Department of Political Economy.

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

DEAR READER,

CONTACT

Bush House,

e are currently living in an unprecedented historical moment. Whilst you browse through the brilliant articles in this latest edition of the Dialogue, you will probably be tucked up at home. There is no running for the rush hour tube when you are forced to stand and flick through magazines, likewise, no late-night pub crawls before an early lecture the next day. Among all the uncertainties that have characterised this 2020, it seems unreal that our editorial team has been able to put together this issue of the Dialogue. It has proven to be extremely challenging to chair this project and coordinate deadlines with editors and contributors that are scattered across the globe. If anything, we have been fuelled by a desire to make this the best issue yet.

North East Wing, 30 Aldwych, London WC2B 4BG part of King’s Strand Campus Email kcldialogue@gmail.com Website https://kclpolitics.org/

EDITORIAL Editor in Chief

When looking at the past, we can always find various key dates that define entire generations, leaving an indelible mark on the collective memory of society. Moments of standstill and panic like this were experienced in 1945, 1968, September 11 of 2001 and 2008. Historians and political scientists have often pinpointed turning points in the history of the human race. 2020 is no different. The pandemic caused by the novel Coronavirus represents a watershed moment for our generation, something that will be studied and analysed for decades to come. The Dialogue will be a pioneer in this, offering in-depths critical analyses of what a post-Covid-19 world will look like and how our society will be shaped by this event. Aware of the myriad aspects that are evolving in politics and society, we have decided to limit the scope of this edition to seven key areas of study which include: economics, leadership, education, gender, geopolitics, climate change and the digital revolution. These sub-topics will hopefully provide some insight into navigating this uncertain time and through this first edition for the 2020/2021 academic year.

Nicoló Vertecchi

In an age defined by globalising trends and instant technological connections, fake news is increasingly damaging the intellectual debate around fundamental issues. The Covid-19 crisis has made this glaringly obvious. The Dialogue team is committed to providing a thoughtful, more critical kind of news, which will help readers to orient themselves around current political debates. With new features, including new designs, a new interview section and a greater focus on regions outside of the Global North, we hope that you will find the articles engaging and informative, and most importantly capable of raising new questions.

CONTRIBUTORS

Stay safe,

Nicoló Vertecchi & India Horner Editor-in-Chief and Vice Editor-in-Chief

Autumn 2020 • Dialogue

Vice Editor in Chief India Horner Design Editor Yvonne Haberlach

ILLUSTRATORS/ARTISTS Clara Maire PRESIDENT KCL POLITICS SOCIETY Oona Carteron

Andrea Peniche, Ayobami Samuel Ilesanmi Ii, Ala’a Sukhera, Ayanda Tambo, Amadeo Hachez, Alice Palmer, Ana Cantó Miro, Beatrice Catena, Benjamin Smith, Badis Khiari Millan, Cassandra Van Douvere, Caroline Raryner,Clarissa Fraschetti, Grace Hunley, Isabelle Bienfait, Josephine Munch, Josh Ewell, Jaromir Chroustovsky, Lin Derz, Lily Hardcastle, Masha Trosheva, Manfredi Pozzoli, Meryem Kucuk, Megan Clementson Cox, Michael Liu, Mathilde Aupetit, Nader di Michele, Razvan Petri, Rosie McCann, Rebecca Visser, Sara Dozai, Tommy O’Donnell, Vaishnav Rajkumar, Valeria Sinisi Garcia, Vlad (missing)

Dialogue 3

Oona Carteron President KCL Politics Dear Reader, Thank you so much for taking the time to read this new edition of our magazine Dialogue. As you all know, these past few months the world has undergone an extraordinary experience, one that is far from over, and that will have a profound impact for years to come. Needless to say that writing a student magazine under these circumstances was not an easy challenge. This has been made possible by the outstanding work of our editors and contributors who dedicated their time, skills, passion and energy to designing this edition. It is with great pleasure that our team presents to you the first Dialogue issue of the year centered around the themes of changes in a post-Covid 19 world. As most of you must have understood by now, the global pandemic has had unprecedented consequences on international politics and on all our lives. It deprived us of GB sports nights, and Wednesday nights at the Vault (even if they werenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t as good). It took away house parties and spontaneous trips to DC, our beloved Maughan Library, and basically most of our human interactions. However, this issue will not be about us, poor KCL students, but the global implications and consequences that Covid-19 has had on the world by focusing on seven sub-themes: economics, leadership and politics, education, gender, Geo-politics and military, climate change and the digital revolution. At a time when the plague of fake news is steadily spreading around the globe, the articles in this issue are dedicated to providing thoroughly researched and accurate information delivered through well-written and analytical articles. Although the ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic are too numerous to be quantified,and while it is too soon to fully grasp the long-term impacts it may have, the pandemic remains an essential topic to write about and reflect upon, as I am sure we shall see many changes arise in a post-Covid world . We look forward to seeing you all at our next event, Happy reading, Oona Carteron

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Dialogue â&#x20AC;˘ Autumn 2020

Contents Autumn 2020

Briefing

Interviews

Africa

North America

edited by Megan Clementson Cox

edited by Rebecca Visser

The New Evil: Political Advancement - 8

In Conversation with Jaci Braga - 36

COVID-19 and The New Scramble for Africa - 64

The US CARES Act and Latinx Workers - Racial Capitalism at Work -91

Changes to the Sports Industry in a post-Covid World 12

Graduating into a Pandemic- 40

COVID-19 and the learning gap - 67

Towards a New Federalism - 93

edited by Lily Hardcastle

The Plight of African domestic workers in the Middle East 69

edited by Josephine Munch

The Future after Covid for the Most Centralised Country In the World - 42

Renewable Energies in the United States: The Shift that will take more than a Pandemic - 95

Middle East

edited by Meryem Kucuk

Campaigning under Coronavirus 97

The Covid-19 Shock Doctrine -18

The Atrocities of the British Garment Industry - 46

Post-Covid Turkish foreign Policy - 72

Latin America

The Future of the Liberal International Order 22

Black Lives Matter: The Power of Social Media in Protest - 49

Voices from UAE and Turkey-75

The future is feminism 24

Holding the British Government Accountable to Their Climate Crisis Promises After Covid-19 - 51

edited by Cassandra Van Douveren

Global Migration in a Changing World 15

International Relations

Emerging Securities edited by Vaishnav Rajkumar

edited by Josh Ewell

Britain

Online Democracy: The Next Pandemic? - 26

Europe

Covid-19: A Security Threat with Environmental Ties 29

Three Versions of Populism - 54

The Us-China Conflict Against the Backdrop of the global pandemic 32

EU Budget and Recovery Fund Summit: Clashes over ‘Different Conceptions of a post-Covid Europe’ 58

edited by Manfredi Pozzoli

Covid-19 Amid A Number of European Elections 61

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Climate Change in a postCovid-19 Middle East - 78 Saudi Arabian Influence in the Global Oil Economy - 80

Asia

edited by Amadeo Hachez

Behind China’s economic recovery - 82 A Spider on a Changing Web: Lessons from Singapore - 85 New Zealand and the Changing Attitudes to Female Leaders During Covid-19 - 87

edited Valeria Sinisi Garcia

The Connection Between Climate Change and New Epidemics - 100 The Education Sector’s shortcoming in Latin America - 104 A Nation Betrayed: What Bolsonaro’s Response to Covid-19 Means for the Future of Brazil’s Leadership - 106

Book Recommendations -108 Bibliography

Dialogue 5

Editors

A big thank you to our team, editors and artists !

I am a third year History and International Relations student. I am very passionate about transnational history and geopolitics. Besides my academic interests, I love traveling, discovering new places and writing. I hope that in the future I will work with international organisations around the world.

Josephine Munch BA Politics

Nicoló Vertecchi BA History and IR

India Horner

I am grateful to have found my home with the team of driven and determined students at the Dialogue. Ultimately, my passion for writing stems from my love for English literature. I wish to enter a world of journalism and speak up about critical issues such as climate change, gender equality and human rights.

BA European Studies and Spanish

Yvonne Haberlach

I am Jo, Dialogue’s International Relations’ editor. I’m a third-year Politics student. You can usually find me at training with my lacrosse team or just getting a drink at Dover Castle.

I am excited to be back in London after studying abroad in the US. In my role as Features editor I hope to give space for unconventional and interdisciplinary thinking, which I believe adds immense value to our global understanding.

Cassandra Van Douveren BA History and IR

Studying and doing Politics is much more than just data analysis. Political Participation is the stories and pictures that showcase how humans live together. Numbers themselves are meaningless unless we give them context. It is important to keep questioning, whether it is via data, writing or the arts. It all matters.

Originally from India, I was born and brought up in Dubai but am now well on my way to calling myself a Londoner. An avid reader, I believe that reading everything from Albert Camus to Jeffrey Archer to Slavoj Žižek is the main spark behind his passion for writing.

Vaishnav Rajkumar

BA Political Economy

BA European Politics

I’m Lily, and I’m a second year European Studies and Spanish student from Oxford. I love writing, travel and dance but ultimately I’m very passionate about British politics and I’m so excited to be covering them for Dialogue this year

Amadeo Hachez is a third-year student in International Relations. He is particularly interested in Chinese contemporary politics and European Union foreign policy. His hobbies include tennis, football, and piano.

Amadeo Hachez

BA International Relations

Lily Hardcastle

BA European Studies and Spanish

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

Born American but never raised there, I have always been passionate about US politics, especially about voting rights issues. When not involved in this, I love to play soccer and hike.

I’m a History and International Relations third year with a specific interest in the Middle East (of course!). Born in Turkey and raised in London, I have a particular interest in geopolitics, security, and diplomacy. Outside of uni I am an archer, a baker and an amateur photographer.

Meryem Kucuk

Rebecca Visser

BA History and IR

I am a Spanish and Italian student, in my third year of a BA in International Relations. My main research interests include climate change and it’s intersection with human rights, as well as issues regarding Latin America, international law, feminism and current affairs

Valeria Sinisi García

I’m Josh and I’m a second year History student. I spend my spare time between reading, playing football and badminton. If I am not doing that, I might be out with friends having a good time.

Josh Ewell

BA International Relations (IR)

BA History

I’m Megan and I’m a third year History and International relations student. I’m particularly interested in the economic histories of Africa and Latin America, focusing on the latter in my dissertation this year. Outside of academia I love music and drama, and can often be found with a pint in my hand in an overly expensive London pub!

My name is Manfredi, I am also the editor of Dialogue’s Europe section. My areas of focus are Transatlantic Relations, the politics of European countries, and international populist and nationalist movements. On the history side, my main interest is the Cold War – and basically anything related to the 60s

Megan Clementson Cox

Manfredi Pozzoli

BA History and IR

I am a French-Hungarian student passionate about the link between our audio visual receptors and our social behaviors. Here, I mainly worked on materializing the swirl of emotion the Covid 19 is/was/will be into a colorful visual experience.

Clara Maire

BA Political Economy Autumn 2020 • Dialogue

I’m a second year German & History student who, outside of studies, enjoys various creative arts, heated political debates and cooking!

Amalia Hajieva

BA German & History Dialogue 7

Briefing

edited by Cassandra Van Douveren

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

Briefing

The New Evil: Political Advancement written by Beatrice Catena

Photo: Rebecca Casale (25) experiences loneliness in Milans during lockdown, Milan, Gabriele Galimberti, 2020.

n addition to global disbelief and frustration, the pandemic has caused the political sphere to significantly expand its realm. In the interest of public health safety, political entities have been legitimised by civil society to dictate individual freedoms. As lockdowns and curfews became the norm, everyone complied. This development sheds light on two important themes: firstly, that global societies have become more flexible and accepting towards the idea of an increase of political power by political elites. Secondly, entire nations have become more obedient towards political power, following emotional waves of fear and solidarity. Few would doubt that flexibility and obedience are fundamentally crucial in battling a crisis, yet the question now shifts towards the future: will all this flexibility and obedience become part of the ‘new normal’?

The year 2020 has marked Covid-19 as the global enemy to oppose. Although each nation-state has fought this battle in a different way, the whole world has turned towards political leadership to lead the attack. Lockdown, social distancing and contact tracing have become recurrent expressions amongst our daily vocabulary. Policies may differ from country to country, but one finds a global common ground in the increased competence of politics and government during the pandemic. There are three reasons for this development, each with their own consequences in a post-Covid world. In both democracies and authoritarian regimes, ‘state of emergency’ laws imposed by governments, automatically increased the concentration of executive power in the hands of political entities. As established by the United Nations Commission of Civil and

Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 9

Briefing

Political Rights of 1966, pandemics are indeed triggers was forced to fulfil our needs. Political leaders capable to the ‘state of emergency’ as they threaten nationals’ of inspiring their flocks — such as Angela Merkel and security and safety to catastrophic lengths. Conse- Jacinda Ardern — have become more than simple poquently, the deliberation to grant greater executive litical figures. We may now think of them as instructors, and legislative power to a government has the effect mentors, and even role models, whose directions were of decreasing bureaucratic responses to emergen- essential for us to navigate the challenges encountered cies which a population cannot afford during a crisis. in these last dystopian months. The need for guidance While being beneficial in the way it allows immediate and the will to keep safe have driven individuals to ideresponses, this manoeuvre does not take into account alise political power as a social strength, a friendly force, the dangers of concentrating political power towards as well as to avoid preoccupying ourselves with rights dysfunctional governments. Pandemics like the one we and opposition. Stay at home, keep away, stay safe. We are experiencing trigger long-lasting states of emer- have internalised obedience because safety comes first. gencies, whereby the central government will acquire a significant amount of power Finally, political power has found for the length of the crisis. In a “In a postmodern rela- little resistance to one of its greatworld with Covid-19, we are not tivistic world, ‘informa- est opposers: science. It is thought yet able to see the end of the tunto be the case that science is a tion’ has been relegated nel. Whilst the end goal remains source of certainty. In contrast to unclear, years of power-centralisocial subjects, science is constructto mere ‘opinion’” sation are bound to alter our cured of logical, proven facts that reprent political system. resent an objective reality. Yet for many, science has failed us during the pandemic. In a Secondly, the often expressed ‘safety first’ claim has postmodern relativistic world, ‘information’ has been raised some real issues regarding civic freedom and relegated to mere ‘opinion’, with scientific discoveropposition to state power. The fear of the virus and ies constantly being questioned. Numerous speechthe need to stay safe have become an absolute priority es given by the Italian Prime Minister Conte affirmed and preoccupation for many. Covid-19 has constrict- that the government would decide its policies based ed civilians to isolationism and dissociation, inevitably on the information found by the scientific committee. weakening the ability to oppose norms, regulations Whilst generally being a sensible message to give, the and such. As investigated by The Time, for the past fif- broad range of scientific opinions circulating the globe ty years, the number of American households with just have allowed any political position to be ‘scientifically’ one person has been steadily increasing, making the backed up. An example of this statement is the conflict 35.7 million Americans who live alone, lonelier than regarding the ‘herd immunity’ strategy. While Italy was ever. The danger of low interaction between individu- undergoing a full-lockdown as a safety measure to conals has decreased our ability to stand strong and remain trol the virus’ expansion, the scientific advisers to Parliaunited. As scared individuals, we appreciated and wel- ment in the United Kingdom were defending — with comed strong sources of guidance. Politics, in general, what was called scientific proof — the ‘herd immunity’

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

Briefing

Gabriele Lamberti - Homes - commissioned by National Geographic to represent life inside house walls in Milan, Italy, during the pandemic. The project takes the name of “inside out”

strategy. As Dr. Fauci claimed, 2020 has seen a growing “anti-science bias”, whereby people “just don’t believe science”. Science has served political needs rather than drawing lines between truth and false facts. Overall, it seems that science, the righteous human source of knowledge, has been highly co-dependent to the political sphere, allowing individuals to rely on politics rather than science. Science is now elastic and malleable. Entire populations have learned flexibility within the logicality of science and in its application to political decisions. Whilst we have been distancing in our homes we have had time to reflect on the future of our world. From wondering about the safety of our jobs to observing the changing of interpersonal relations, we are play-

ing a game of guessing what our daily lives will be like. Individuals’ ‘control’ over themselves and the ability to critically engage with reality seems to be overtaken by obedience and flexibility. One might wonder if we will ever be able to break out of this systemic contemporaneity. Although at this point, we need obedience and flexibility while complying with policies against the risks of a pandemic, it is uncertain as to whether these newborn tendencies will redefine the political systems of the future. Yet, the simple act of acknowledging such an idea may just be the way ‘control’ will be taken back by individuals once everyone is safe in the post-Covid world. As we navigate the pandemic and sail its waves of expansions and contractions, a systemic change is constantly in the air. In a post-Covid world, we may just be fighting a new evil: political advancement.

Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 11

Briefing

Changes to the sports industry in a post-Covid World written by Lin Derz

ockdowns around the world have disrupted myriad normal aspects of life, including physical activity and sports. Although sportsmen and sportswomen have gradually returned to compete, it is not as we remember. The NBA, the most famous menâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s professional basketball league in the world, is now playing in Disney World, Orlando, without the presence of any fans. In 2019 the overall league attendance was 22 million. The well-reselected tennis competition, the US Open, and the football Premier League will follow suit as they will also be held behind closed doors. Questions must then be raised. What role can eSports play for the athletes, fans and those who are employed by the sports industry? How do governments intend on protecting society from the virus while also maintaining social cohesion? What solutions are there for low-income families, as they are hit the hardest in terms of lack of exercise and its consequences?

The sports industry will suffer enormous financial repercussions as a result of Covid-19. This suffering is not to be taken lightly, as it is estimated to amount to a loss of US$756 billion annually, equal to a whopping 2.12% of total GDP in the EU. Covid-19 has caused many important sporting events to be cancelled, such as the Rotterdam Marathon or postponed, like the Tokyo Olympics. Unfortunately, many jobs are at risk, not only for athletes but also industries that are interwoven with sporting events, which include catering, infrastructure, tourism, travel, media broadcasting and transportation. Sporting businesses will have to deal with various other issues including; requesting athletes to return to work when they would rather be safely home with friends and family, rebuilding life plans in an ambigu-

Photo: Tom Dumoulin (Jumbo-Visma) rides during the virtual tour, Getty Images, 2020.

ous economic climate and resuming global operations in countries still struggling with outbreaks. The absence of live sports is providing an opportunity for eSports to grow. Not all sports events require the athletes to gather physically and compete in the same location: in fact, many events have been moved online. For example, athletes completed the Amstel Cycling Race from the confinement of their homes by connecting their bike to Bkool, an indoor cycling simulator. Formula 1 similarly replaced their cancelled races with a virtual Grand Prix. This was regarded as a huge success as it generated over 30 million views. Online streaming platform Twitch, owned by Amazon, has also signed a

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Dialogue â&#x20AC;˘ Autumn 2020

Briefing

One of the courts in the NBA campus bubble with virtual fans on the video screens. Photo: “NBA Bubble: What do Teams think of playing in front of virtual fans?” Mark Medina, USA Today, 2020.

strategic partnership with Paris Saint-German, Real Madrid, Juventus and Arsenal for exclusive content. This will effectively engage younger audiences by providing more interactive viewing experiences, a necessary change in a post-Covid world in which live sporting events will be less frequent. It is evident that eSports content is on the rise and will play a crucial role in society. The positive aspect of eSports will allow athletes to compete against each other, even when governments impose restrictions banning large gatherings or sporting events. Furthermore, online sports events need to be managed and serviced, thus providing job opportunities. Unfortunately, it appears that more jobs will be lost in the various industries interwoven with sporting events than jobs created by the rise of the eSports industry. Despite the online presence of sporting events, it must be noted that eSports currently does not provide the same matchday experience as in the pre-Covid world. Fans cannot scream the same chant in a full stadium, waving flags and eagerly clutching their

drinks. Instead, they will be watching the event from the confinement of their own homes. Nonetheless, we are hopeful that new technological advancements will vastly improve the fan experience. Globally, the imposed lockdowns have taken their toll on social interactions. For many, sports events are the highlights of their week - whether it be attending the event at the stadium or celebrating their team’s success in an overcrowded pub. Sports events are vital to any community; they bring people together and give rise to heated conversations. Yet, during the pandemic celebrations were put to an early halt. When Liverpool won their first Premier League title in thirty years, the Police implemented a 48-hour dispersal zone around the stadium. When Real Madrid were crowned Champions of Spain earlier in July, the club asked its fans not to celebrate together. The local government deployed more than 200 police officers to prevent crowds assembling, with Mayor Jose Luis Martinez-Almeida asking

Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 13

Briefing people to stay away. For hardcore football supporters these celebrations are the world. In a post-Covid world, however, they cannot be a reality. It is up to the sports industry to now come up with innovative ways to uphold the fans’ sense of community, whilst remaining careful and responsible. Sky, a British broadcaster and telecommunications company, now allows up to six fans to watch matches linked up to a live video chat in an attempt to recreate the fandom experience and match-day banter. The concept has immense positive impacts in a post-Covid world as it improves social cohesion to a large extent.

one’s economic situation will aggravate these effects. Society has partially combatted the issue that Covid-19 disproportionately impacts the physical well-being of low-income families by providing free online sports classes. The sources range from free tutorials on Instagram, to the official website of the NHS. Society has globally taken advantage of these resources. The USbased fitness YouTube channel ‘HASfit’ has over 200 million views. It has also been reported that since the beginning of the pandemic the Nike Health app has had an 80% spike in China. The content also varies from individual fitness classes to stretching classes in which the whole family can participate. Many of the classes The negative consequences of the pandemic in the do not require special equipment, thus making exersports industry are not limited cise more accessible to the to financial repercussions and a community at large. How“Periodic exercise are proven to lessened community feel, one ever, access to these free rebe helpful, especially in times of also sees the disparities besources is far from universal, tween income groups increase. because not everyone has anxiety, crisis and fear.” Low-income families will be hit access to digital technolothe hardest. Although the NHS gies. In many developing recommends at least 150 minutes of moderate-inten- countries, access to high-speed internet is often diffisity activity or 75 minutes of vigorous-intensity activity cult. It is almost impossible for an estimated four billion a week, the global outbreak has resulted in the closure people that do not even have access to the internet. of many sporting facilities including pools, parks and playgrounds. Access to exercise has become difficult The Covid-19 pandemic has already had a large impact for those who rely solely on facilities provided by the on the sports industry and will continue to do so in the government. The benefits of periodic exercise are prov- future. Unfortunately, eSports is not a perfect alternaen to be helpful, especially in times of anxiety, crisis and tive for sporting events in the post-Covid world. Team fear. For many, these emotions are ripe during the terri- sports, such as football, rugby or basketball, can simply fying reality of the global pandemic. Low-income fam- not be replicated virtually using current technology, ilies are especially vulnerable to the negative effects of unlike racing. Yet, the eSports industry does have the lockdown rules as they might not have access to their potential to alleviate some of the financial concerns by usual facilities, making it difficult to engage in physical providing employment opportunities, allowing some exercise. As a result, more time is spent on digital de- form of online interaction to boost social cohesion and vices, leading to irregular sleep patterns and worsening provides free of charge online classes to all. Regarding of diets. A lack of physical activity can also harm ones further and future social cohesions, governments must mental health, which can compound stress or anxiety find a suitable balance. Such solutions will hardly repthat many will experience in the face of isolation from licate the pre-Covid world perfectly, but they alleviate normal social life. Similarly, the possible loss of family some of the pains experienced by sports fans and citior friends from Covid-19 and the impact of the virus on zens alike. 14

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

Photo: “Sea Eye” Karsten Jaeger, 2020.

As COVID-19 is changing the world, what happens to global migration?

or a moment, as borders were re-opening and international travel resumed, the world seemed to be going back to normal. A much-awaited event for the roughly 272 million people classified as international migrants (including refugees and asylum seekers) who have found themselves in unquestionably dire circumstances in these recent months. While writing this, however, a new rise of infections proves to us that Covid-19 could remain a threat for some time to come. Despite this uncertainty, people make predictions of a future which is not taunted by the virus. So too will I attempt to peer past the pandemic and discuss what global migration might look like in a ‘post-Covid’ world. Government responses to Covid-19 have generally not panned out well for irregular migrants and asylum seekers. Algeria forcibly expelled hundreds of migrants to transit centres in Niger. The Malaysian government continued their crackdown on and xenophobic hate speech towards Rohingya refugees. Many countries that closed their borders did not take asylum seekers into account. Some countries have however taken a more inclusive approach. During the escalation of the virus’s outbreak in Portugal, for instance, the country

Briefing

written by Isabelle Bienfait temporarily granted migrants and asylum seekers full citizenship rights which included access to Portugal’s healthcare system. Italy set out an amnesty law which allows for around 200,000 migrant labourers to apply for legal residency. In Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Covid-19 pointed out the consequences of migrant workers having their basic rights denied in often jam-packed accommodations – this prompted a promise to provide healthcare regardless of legal status. Unfortunately, even such positive developments have their shortcomings. Not only is it often unclear whether asylum seekers and migrants have had access to the treatment they were promised, but the promises are time-bound to the threat of the current pandemic. Italy’s legal residency permits are only valid for a sixmonth period. This may make sense on the surface, but it overlooks some obvious longer-term consequences of Covid-19. So, besides not knowing if the pandemic will have passed by this six-month mark, the existing vulnerabilities faced by migrants are exacerbated by the current crisis and may very well outlast it - making their ‘post-Covid’ realities sombre. A UN Policy Brief from June 2020 outlines three of these vulnerabilities.

Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 15

Photo: Aggelos Barai, Greece, 2020.

Briefing Firstly, people on the move face an obviously high risk gratory landscape for years, if not decades to come. to their own health because of exposure to the virus One such prediction is that Covid-19 will usher in an era without proper protection. As mentioned, the govern- that is less global than the previous. If the world since ments’ actions protecting the health of migrants and the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath, dominated asylum seekers have not been a top priority. This makes by an economic recession and growing inequality, has those already lacking access to other basic needs, such witnessed the birth of an anti-globalisation consensus, as food and housing, more vulnerable. Secondly, as an then Covid-19 will push us further towards a ‘de-gloindisputable consequence of Covid-19, the socio-eco- balisation’ reality. Especially in developed countries, all nomic crisis impacts those without social protection things international may pose an unnecessary risk to measures, financial reserves, and those crucially depen- the health of citizens, that would not have to be othdent on the migrant remittances that disappear along- erwise incurred by, such as turning supply chains from side a global loss of employment. According to World global to local. Although it may make the world more Bank data, the developing world received a record high resilient to future health-related crises, it makes us less of $529 billion in remittances from citizens abroad in prosperous as a consequence. If we begin distrusting 2018. The immediate economic aftermath of Covid-19 foreign countries and the international system as a will, therefore, heavily disrupt income for migrant fam- whole, heightened political tensions may slowly manilies. It is estimated that about ifest into a global conflict. 60 million people globally We might even consider the “If political tensions incould be pushed into extreme trade war between the Unitcrease, so too will the urpoverty in 2020 alone. Thirdly, ed States and China, already gency for people to if people are unable to move dubbed as a new ‘Cold War’, homes, they will be forced to as an early manifestation of migrate.” stay in precarious situations this. – triggering a protection criRenowned historian Yuval sis. Although it is shown that deportation of asylum seekers from EU countries has significantly decreased Noah Harari confronts us with an important choice beduring the pandemic, with Germany’s deportations al- tween ‘nationalist isolation and global solidarity’. If we most halving, we may expect these to pick up after the take the route of nationalist isolation, we will be folhealth-related threat is over. The home countries or lo- lowed by global disunity. This will have a lasting impact calities (in the case of Internally Displaced People) may since migration primarily relies on principles of trust be ill-prepared to receive people safely. This will drive between states, openness and globalisation. An examthose desperate to escape harm into irregular migra- ple of this is migrant labour. As the Center for Strategic tory pathways; often via smugglers, traffickers and oth- and International Studies argues, if “migrant labor – the er illegal routes. For these reasons, policymakers need engine of a globalized economy – stops moving”, not to act quickly to implement or extend measures that only would it decrease output, but if paired with a diswill curb the negative consequences for migrants and ruption of the food supply chain, it may cause tension asylum seekers. A ‘post-Covid’ world simply does not around global food security. This is just one of the many long-term repercussions faced by a less globalised mean the same for those on the move. world. Finally, we must not forget that conflict - whatHaving examined what is still a relatively near future, ever shape it takes - is the biggest reason for forced miit is worth looking further ahead and predicting how gration in the first place. If political tensions increase, so major changes in global behaviour will impact the mi16

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

Briefing

Photo: Filippo Rossi,TNH, 2020. too will the urgency for people to migrate, even if they are unable to do so. Closely connected to the idea of de-globalisation, the next prediction is based on political behaviour and how the virus seems to serve a nationalist agenda. Throughout history, migrants have always had to put up with xenophobia and other injustices. This time around, however, the pandemic’s consequences of an economic recession and social malaise is what is giving governments the political space to implement longterm anti-migration policies. Take Italy’s League party’s secretary and ex-Minister of the Interior Matteo Salvini, who publicly painted African migrants as disease-ridden and as bringing the virus across the Mediterranean. He belongs to a group of right-wing politicians that saw the snowballing crisis as a chance to achieve political gains by making refugees and migrants a scapegoat for the unfolding chaos. Although these regulations are often designed to be temporary, ‘emergency extensions’ do not seem entirely unrealistic in Covid-19 times. Harari notes that “temporary measures have a nasty habit of outlasting emergencies”. These anti-migration policies are structurally detrimental to migration because they are built around the concept of ‘othering’ migrants. This implies that we may not only distrust other countries in the future, but we may also distrust foreigners and thus migrants altogether. The next crisis, whatever that may be, will only damage migration processes more

because of the fear-exploiting rhetoric that dictates politics and public opinion. Although there appear to be many negative concerns regarding this subject, one must understand that the unforeseen circumstances of Covid-19 that were brought onto governments naturally resulted in quick judgements and hasty measures. However, an effective pandemic response and the protection of migrants should not be mutually exclusive. Otherwise, Covid-19 will have a lasting and detrimental impact on global migration. The solutions to these problems are ones where we “re-imagine human mobility for the benefit of all”, according to the UN Policy Brief. This will require several things to happen. Most importantly: global collaboration. Countries will need to collaborate in defining standards for travel and border management. This may ultimately compel us to offset the de-globalising trends that we have been seeing. The subsequent regulations should then be proportional to the health risk, as well as based on evidence – not just part of a political opportunist’s plan. Ultimately, we should not leave anyone behind. This means not categorising migrants as essential or non-essential, since we crucially depend on the input of migrants in all sectors. The Policy Brief rightly notes that if we keep these aspects in mind, perhaps we can make the future of global migration “pandemic resilient”.

Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 17

International Relations edited by Josephine Münch

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

International Relations

Photo: Standing Rock solidarity march protesting the Dakota Pipeline in San Francisco, November 2016, Pax Ahimsa Gethen, 2020.

The Covid-19 Shock Doctrine written by Josephine Münch and Benjamin Smith

n 2007, Canadian author and activist, Naomi Klein published a novel that is crucial to understanding the notion of the Shock Doctrine. Her novel ‘The shock Doctrine: the Rise of Disaster Capitalism’ brings forward the theory of disaster capitalism, which proposes that specific political or economic agendas are furtively introduced by governments and corporations during a disaster. This theory suggests that during a disaster, whether it be an economic crisis, a conflict or a natural cataclysm, specific political or economic agendas that tend to predominantly prioritise corporate interests are introduced by capitalist corporations and neo-liberal governments. Klein demonstrates that these decisions harness the population’s confusion and disorientation caused by the shock of the event, to implement their political or economic interests. The Covid-19 crisis is the perfect example of ‘disaster capitalism’ at work. Politicians and corporations have put forward their interests under the guise of recovering their political economy. Governments and businesses from all sides of the political spectrum are already using recovery packages, budget reforms, environmental deregulation or democratic backsliding to enhance their political and economic autonomy that stems from the Covid-19 health crisis. This crisis has enabled countries to have better control of their macroeconomic approaches. While Germany has become renowned for its “black zero” commitment to budgets balanced between fiscal spending and tax receipts; the country abandoned this more fiscally conservative approach and implemented one of the most radical relief packages in response to the pandemic. The state allocated €350bn, roughly 10% of its GDP, to support the Eurozone’s largest economy. These funds are directed at struggling businesses and include unlimited loans. When Chancellor Angela Merkel proclaimed that ‘we won’t be asking every day what it means for our

Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 19

International Relations deficit’, it was simultaneously a proclamation of Germany’s economic autonomy and intention to break away from the European Union’s neoliberal macroeconomic practices.

were able to assert their economic autonomy.

Furthermore, the pandemic allowed the different governments to amplify their policies of work-place ollowing the shock of the pandemic, countries have deregulation. Early into the pandemic, the French progressively implemented relief packages to keep parliament passed the emergency measures declared their economies afloat. Yet, in the E.U, even in situa- by Emmanuel Macron. These included necessary and tions where states have collaborated, the competing understandable measures, such as temporary banpreferences of individual states have remained prev- nings of large-scale public meetings and the closure alent throughout the pandemic. While EU executives of certain venues. Yet, these emergency measures had initially proposed a coronavirus recovery package also included the power for employers to force overof €500bn, the more ‘frugal’ EU states were instead op- time work, reduce pay and delay payment for relatively posed to any grants at all. The ‘frugal five’ states (made low-paid workers. This is significant, as it is a suspenup of Finland, Denmark, The Netherlands, Austria and sion of the thirty-five-hour-maximum working week Sweden), delayed this negotiation process by insisting and the right to vacation pay that make up France’s renowned workers’ rights or “acquis on their economic autonomy. sociaux”. Even in countries that Mark Rutte, the prime minister of have remained firmly aligned with the Netherlands, ‘demanded the “it is easier for governneoliberal economics, the panright of a single member state ments to deregulate demic has still amplified the disto veto the disbursement of the tributive significance of the state. money’. Similarly, the Swedish without consulting the prime minister, Stefan Löfven, While the pandemic shakes nation‘criticised the proposal and population.” al economies and amplifies governclaimed that it would indebt fument political and economic auture generations.’ tonomy, the Covid-19 crisis is also an opportunity for states to implement social and enviAlthough these states did eventually concede to an EU ronmental changes that have been previously met with recovery package, they did so at a significantly lower public opposition. While the world witnessed massive €390bn. This meant that the frugal states were able drops in carbon emissions, cleaner air and the return of to compromise the commitment to a shared EU relief nature in urban areas, neo-liberal governments seem package to their economic interests. Thereby, the disar- to be prepared to turn the tide by giving up environray caused by the pandemic enabled these frugal states mental laws in order to rebuild their industries. considerable economic bargaining power. On the contrary, India pursued its own idiosyncratic economic In the U.S for example, President Donald Trump anapproach and did not follow a normative internation- nounced changes to the National Environmental Polal standard. Although the Indian central government icy Act that plans on easing infrastructure investment did commit to relief packages, they were considerably while deregulating environmental laws. Slashing ensmaller than those provided in other states. The first vironmental legislation that works against polluting announced relief package consisted mostly of existing companies is a strategy that Trump’s government has public spending and additional expenditure amounted always supported. Yet, it is even more prominent now only to 0.5% of the GDP. By the end of May, the total that the public’s ability to contest such deregulation additional public spending in India amounted to only has been diminished because of global lockdowns. 1% of the GDP and much of this ‘had not yet reached Despite Trump’s disregard for climate change, counpeople’. This shows that the shock of the pandemic al- tries that originally claimed to be environmentally lowed the Indian government to break away from any friendly seem to be using the same strategy to rebuild international standard of relief packages. Instead, they their economy. In Canada, despite the public’s relent-

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

less demonstrations against Alberta’s oil and gas pipeline, a federal package of almost 2$ billion was granted to Alberta under the grounds of coronavirus. Similarly, the air-quality monitoring was amended by the local government to ‘alleviate pressures on industrial operations.’ argeting environmental laws is key to disaster capitalism. With Covid-19 and half of the planet’s population stranded at home, it is easier for governments to deregulate without consulting the population. In India, the government has designed a new draft of the Environmental Impact Assessment proposing to legitimise operations currently filed as violations, such as construction and infrastructure projects. In the previous draft, the public’s consultation was a key component under which the concerns of a population affected by a project would be taken into account. On the other hand, the new draft proposes an expanded list of projects that do not require the population’s concerns to be given environmental clearance. Environmental commentators have suggested that the aftermath of the health crisis could be an opportunity to redesign the current liberal economic system towards a more sustainable one. Yet, the GHG emission reduction resulting from global lockdowns will most likely have no long-term effect as states appear ill-prepared to implement institutional change. Indeed, the Covid-19 crisis is a timely moment for countries to downgrade their environmental policy ambitions. Already in 2007, following the subprime crisis, the E.U had drastically weakened its environmental legislation through deregulation and weaker environmental policy density. In 2020, the €750bn recovery package voted in July by

Photo: President Macron receives Chancellor Merkel, Bundesregierung/Denze, 2020.

International Relations

the E.U member states raised backlash from scientists on its efficiency on tackling climate change. Undermining environmental protection policies is one way to exploit the Covid-19 crisis and enforce government agendas. Still, specific groups and minorities are also being targeted through their government’s disaster politics. In March, soon after the coronavirus outbreak, Hungary’s president Viktor Orban was handed the power to rule by decree. Human rights experts are worried this amount of power would allow Orban to push an anti-democratic agenda, despite Orban assuring that the decree ‘poses no threat to democracy’. As economies have collapsed, following strict lockdown measures, and the public has been in disarray, national governments have used this opportunity to expand their economic autonomy promoting economic, social and environmental agendas that suit their interests. Differently from what neo-liberal theorists like Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye have argued on the demised economic autonomy of states, many countries, because of the Covid-19 crisis, will most likely control their political economy, shifting the International Relations’ focus to states’ plural and differing economic approaches. This is even more relevant as countries have used this crisis to promote their economic interests, pulling away from regional bodies, undermining labour rights, deregulating environmental policies, and, sometimes, ignoring international organisations’ recommendations. Thus, the Covid-19 crisis is not only a way to revise the global economic order, but it is also a way for IR theorists to review their field and turn their focus to a new form of states’ anarchism, where states have greater power on their own economic, social and environmental policies.

Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 21

International Relations

The Future of the Liberal International Order written by Nader di Michele and Josephine Muench Photo: American Flag in Raleigh, USA, Andretti Brown, 2019.

ovid-19 is the latest blow to the Liberal International Order (LIO) and could be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back by exposing the inherent instabilities and weaknesses of this system.

To accurately assess the impact of Covid-19 on the current LIO and understand what it entails, we must be able to define it. The order is characterised by the establishment of international institutions and rules to collectively regulate, manage and govern various aspects of international politics, from economics to security. The Liberal International Order is defined by the spread of globalisation along with capitalist modes of production, which are organised according to neo-liberal beliefs of limited government intervention in the economy and the free movement of people. Thirdly, it, in principle, aids and legitimises the global spread of liberal institutions and values, such as democratic regimes. What drives many of these practices are ideas, values and interests stemming, although not exclusively, from Western powers. Even before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic this world system constructed and led by the USA had for long shown signs of decline. The global alliances, institutions and rules that govern international relations have been consistently challenged by assertive autocratic regimes with Russia, China and more recently with the USA, as well as right-wing populist governments across Europe. Moreover, the liberal international order has been largely abandoned by its leader. A clear example of this

trend is US President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda which remains sceptical of international institutions such as the World Health Organisation, the UN and NATO and rejects to abide by international agreements such as the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal. Even though the dismissal of globalisation and the international liberal order were evident before the pandemic, the failures of the WHO and the UN to effectively address the health care crisis further contributed to this trend. This included the UN security council “completely missing from action” by showing no methods to fighting the pandemic. What is worse, the World Health Organization (WHO) failed to warn the world in time of the outbreak in order for effective policies to be put in place. However, the extent of the impact of Covid-19 is not only to be blamed on the international institutions of neoliberalism. The slashing of social security and healthcare systems brought about by the neo-liberal age of privatisation and austerity have undoubtedly hindered the capabilities of societies to react to a crisis of this nature. This explains the failure of liberal democracies to provide basic health protections such as PPE (personal protective equipment) to medics or even grant full medical attention to those in need. This, combined with the inequalities prompted by our digitalised economy, rendering the distribution of capital and labour income more unequal and shifting income from labour to capital, have put on full display not only the weakness of the social safety net in countries like the USA and the UK, where marginalised groups were hit the hardest by the virus but also the scale of structural

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

International Relations

racism that is present in these countries. For instance, a Brookings Institution, summarises the many export rereport from the Public Health England stated that “the strictions that states have placed on PPE and hospital unequal impact of Covid-19 on BAME communities equipment, food and pharmaceuticals. Even the Global may be explained by a number of factors ranging from Trade Alert team of St Gallen University has reported social and economic inequalities, racism, discrimina- that some 75 countries have introduced some form of tion and stigma and occupational risk”. export curbs on medical supplies, medicines or equipAccording to John Gray, British Philosopher and ment this year. However, Simon J. Evenett, a professor long-standing critic of what he refers to as “Global also from St Gallen University, states that such rise in Delusion”, the pandemic has discredited the idea of protectionism is a continuation of the trend seen since globalisation treasured by liberal elites. For example, the 2008 financial crisis and is also common during macountries such as France and Germany attempt to re- jor global economic downturns. Ultimately this can be patriate pharmaceutical production from China, while seen as highlighting the risk related to crisis-era poliinternational bodies such as the WHO were failing to cies which can become “a new dominant form of proappropriately tackle the pandemic. According to Gray, tectionism”. this will have serious repercussions on the future of the EU, which is in his words “closer to break-up than it has Despite the mentioned warnings, and the severity ever been”. Until the historic decision to agree on debt of these, another future remains possible. With the pooling within the framework of Covid-19 crisis exposing the flaws the Recovery Fund, countries like Itand contradictions of the LIO, the “It is still too soon to necessity to change the current aly were left to their own devices by Berlin and Brussels. Consequently, system of governance has become assess whether the Gray believes that the pandemic more important. This may include a has reinstated the nation-state as order as we know it greater recognition, and subsequent “the only institution with the power expansion, of the healthcare system will crumble.” and authority to deal with the panand its benefits. Moreover, the racial demic and shield its citizens from inequalities brought to light by the the dangers of an increasingly chapandemic has been one of the main otic world.” talking points of the recent wave of social justice demands brought about by the murder of George Floyd Former WHO member Jane Halton, fears that Gray’s in the US on May 2020. The data regarding decreasing prediction may indeed come true. However, she antici- pollution brought about by the lockdown is likely to pates more specifically the rise of “vaccine nationalism”, provide new narratives supporting the fight for climate stating that “at the moment, we’re all in it together” but justice. Lastly, a renewed sense of solidarity and inter“as soon as there is a vaccine, I fear that we … may not dependence, brought about by the dangers of non-colbe quite all in this together as we have been.” Once the laboration, could allow for fairer forms of global coopvaccine is developed, Halton forewarns that there will eration. be a strong pressure to save supplies for domestic use instead of for worldwide distribution based on medical What is certain is that 2020 will become a crucial benchpriority, as already seen with Trump’s attempt to offer mark year concerning the crisis that the LIO is facing. It “large sums of money” to a German medical company is still too soon to assess whether the order as we know for exclusive US right to the Covid-19 vaccine. it will crumble. However, the possibility of rising division and inequality, born from the analysis of the curSuch instances of protectionist impulses are part of rent Covid-19 crisis and its subsequent responses, reinthe instruments and actions that many governments force already ongoing political developments. The risk have used to tackle the consequences of the pandem- remains that we forget that Covid-19 is building on an ic, and thus crowding out policies consistent with the already challenged, if not crumbling, liberal order. Thus, Liberal International Order. For example, Chad P. Bown, this pandemic acts as a catalyst for change in what is an a fellow in Global Economy and Development at the already weak system.

Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 23

International Relations

The Future is Feminism written by Alice Palmer and Josephine Muench

Photo: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control., 2020.

A few months ago, misogynists all over social media squirmed as headlines praising female leaders began to circulate. After garnering considerable media attention, statisticians sought to establish whether female-led countries outperformed male-led ones in keeping the virus at bay. The Centre for Economic Policy Research and the World Economic Forum jointly conducted an analysis of 194 countries, 19 of which are led by women. They found that there is a real, statistical difference between female and male-led countries’ handling of the pandemic. Co-author Professor Supriya Garikipati argues this is “explained by the proactive and coordinated policy responses” with which female leaders stepped forward and their “willingness to take risks in the domain of the economy” for the sake of public health. Women are traditionally deemed to be too emotional for certain roles, specifically positions of authority.

This all-too-common criticism is rooted in antiquated, pseudo-scientific misconceptions of women’s ‘hysteria’ and hormones, as influences that possess and precede their rationality. Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand PM and female leader poster child, has always discussed the role of emotion in her leadership style, however. “I am very proudly an empathetic and compassionately-driven leader”, she said in a 2018 BBC News Interview, “...it takes strength to be an empathetic leader”. Numerous leaders vastly underestimated the virus and delayed their response, but the day after the first person died of Covid-19 outside China on February 2nd, Jacinda began implementing travel bans. Whilst Boris Johnson’s ‘track and trace’ system consists of us writing our name and number in pen and paper at the pub door, Ardern tracked every single case of coronavirus that crossed New Zealand borders. By June, instead of seeing cases rise by thousands every day, New Zealand was entirely

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

Covid-free. Under Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan has contributed a mere seven to the near million global coronavirus deaths. Amongst the other, most cited and lauded government heads are Germany’s Angela Merkel, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen, Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina and Serbia’s Ana Brnabić, who acted with similar decisiveness and performed well in nearest neighbour analyses. Beyond her empathetic leadership, Ardern is typically averse to isolationist, “insular and protectionist” policies that would mean “retreating back to yesteryear”. In looking to the future of International Relations, we must understand two main ideas: first, the idea that nations cannot be considered wholly self-sufficient bubbles and second, that we should use our interconnectedness to its fullest potential in tackling issues that we have seen inevitably arise from globalisation. Yet, to make the most of our interconnectedness, we must first admit our vulnerability. Covid-19 has highlighted our interconnectedness and vulnerability at both an individual and national level. At an individual level, we have understood and appreciated the importance of healthcare and childcare as many of us suddenly fell ill and essential workers lacked basic support. Emotions, which we often see as weak and politically irrelevant, have gotten us all slapping pans together outside our houses come dinnertime. At a national level, we shared resources with one another where possible and sought help when needed. Germany took other nationals into their ICU wards, China sent medical utensils to assist the US, test-kits to Cambodia and doctors to Italy and France, and Morocco sent different forms of medical aid to fifteen other African countries. Feminist theorist Martha Fineman sees vulnerability as “universal and constant, inherent in the human condition”. She proposes that we view the individual as inherently vulnerable rather than as rational, male, able-bodied, independent, and free. The accepted realist conception of International Relations is based on an understanding of humans being motivated by instinct-based bestiality and its desire for self-interest, which is why we continuously regard

International Relations stereotypically male fields of national security and financial status as highest priorities of the state. All institutions related to caring and employing carers – such as education, healthcare, community building – are stereotypically feminine, not seen as priorities and thus often underfunded. The Covid-19 pandemic has made us feel the consequences of these decisions. Within the realist conception of IR also lies an understanding of ‘power’ as control, which theorist Ann Tickner explains is inherently masculine and belligerent. She offers Hannah Arendt’s definition of ‘power’ as a more productive one: the ability to act in concert. By expanding our understanding of ‘power’ and defining it as a way of acting together to achieve mutual goals, we can add dimension to IR theory that is more sophisticated than resorting to conflict. Tickner also suggests national security should encompass vulnerable citizens’ stability and environmental concerns. It seems as if feminist IR theory is very well suited to the issues of our time. Where it has been employed in this Covid-19 pandemic by being more risk-averse to lives and health, female leaders have come out successful. We do not mean to say that every female leader that there ever was, ever is or ever will be is better than her male counterpart. Upon seeing and acknowledging the success of female leaders and dipping our toes into some feminist IR theory, however, we should reflect on our priorities as an electorate and as individual members of nation-states. If these trends have shown us anything, it is that, should women really be more inherently ‘emotional’, it does not come at the expense of reason; empathetic leadership has resulted in excellent decisiveness and rationality, with prioritisation well-suited to the urgencies of a health crisis and arguably those of the oncoming environmental crisis. We should hope and vote for more empathetic leaders whose concerns extend to things other than their country’s economy and who invest time and resources in caring rather than conflict. We should hope that our leaders would encourage international collaboration, for we are interconnected, and, most of all, deeply vulnerable.

Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 25

Emerging Securities edited by Vaishnav Rajkumar

Photo: in “Swiss Post puts e-voting on hold after researchers uncover critical security errors”,James Walker, 2020. 26

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

Online Democracy: The next Pandemic?

n late February, the world came to a standstill. Paralysed by a new coronavirus, many countries raced to find alternatives for the vast amount of services dependent on human interaction. Administrations across the globe began to adapt and digitalise in order to offer similar services, deprived of human contact. Some of these adaptations were long overdue and were rapidly embraced by the public — many of them are likely to stay in place even after the pandemic. One could even say that the health crisis has thus helped mobilise the digital world, yet one major process has not been taken online: voting. Voting is arguably more important than any of the processes that have been digitised until now. Across the world, the act of electing representatives still requires us to leave our homes, queue in front of voting booths for unpredictable periods of time, and then place a checkmark on a ballot paper. At the point when more complex operations and services such as bank transactions and check-ups with a GP have been taken online, why should voting be any different? This question has been increasing in popularity, and in many countries, electoral bodies and experts are euphoric as the movement to vote online gains momentum. However, it might never happen – and for good reason. In the early 2000s, the internet boom raised hopes that online voting was to be the future of elections, but those hopes were short-lived. Today, we see a resurgence of the same movement. Online voting has always drawn support from proponents of democracy all over the world. For many, it is a step forward in the democratic process. It is cheaper, more accessible and convenient for both the institution organising the election and the voters. With the elimination of transportation costs and efforts, queues, and more, the opportunity cost of voting would be significantly lowered, and voter turnout is thus bound to increase. Moreover, the ballots no longer need to be hand-counted, and so the results could be announced almost immediately. Most importantly, there is no human interaction — this might prove to be the deciding argument in this debate, especially in the context of a global health crisis. With 49 percent of U.S citizens polling in favour of online voting, a large por-

Emerging Securities

written by Razvan Petri

tion of the public seems prepared to embrace the idea despite President Trump’s rejection of the prospect of mail-in voting (which shares many similarities with the online voting process). Some countries already have a partial online voting system in place, making it easier to expand the practice for large-scale implementation. Additionally, the nations without this system in place can import the model from those who have successfully implemented it. While some countries are wellequipped to implement electoral reform, the change poses a significant challenge to underdeveloped and developing countries without the necessary infrastructure. Both the developed and developing nations have much to worry about, even before analysing their capacity to implement these changes. There are serious security implications that must be considered before allowing citizens to vote online – some are quite basic; others require us to analyse the problem in depth. There are two large-scale examples of online voting. The first is Estonia — a country with an electoral system that has almost become synonymous with online voting. Today, 44 percent of the ballots cast in their elections are cast online, with many articles highlighting the Estonian experience as a success story. The second instance is in New South Wales, a state in Australia, where 280,000 online ballots were cast in 2015. However, both these instances uncovered a series of issues which should make us reluctant to pursue the idea of online voting — at least for the near future. On the surface, the online voting system in Estonia, termed the I-voting system, “is as reliable and secure as voting in the traditional way”, as claimed by Estonia’s Internet Voting Committee. However, a study by researchers at the University of Michigan highlights a series of issues with the Estonian I-voting system. The first problem is the assumption that there are no hidden agendas and motives to sabotage the system. The second, and perhaps most obvious danger that undermines the system, is negligence. In the pre-election and election processes, the Estonian Committee posted a series of images and videos that contained passwords and secret ID pins belonging to voters. Moreover, they revealed that some of the computers that were used in

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Emerging Securities the process had a variety of different software and applications installed, among which was an online poker app. This application exposed the client to malware that could spread and compromise the results.

trate the system. One such example is denial-of-service attacks, which often make devices unavailable to their users. The attackers, therefore, don’t even need to increase the number of votes for a certain candidate to destabilise the political landscape. They could simply What is the takeaway here? Mistakes can indeed hap- compromise the integrity of the ballots and reveal the pen in any and all undertakings, but when it comes to voter’s identity, clearing the way for voter-intimidation. such complex and interconnected systems that direct- This intimidation can also manifest itself in the form of ly impact democratic processes, these mistakes can be threats or cyber attacks against specific groups, such as beyond repair. When committee members hand-count younger voters, to discourage them from voting. Any votes, the final count might end up with a few votes such security breaches could make voters, especialmissing due to human error. However, this does not ly those who are already sceptical of technology, less compare to the damage that one operator can do by in- trustful of the voting system. Furthermore, the news of stalling an app, for no apparent reason other than bore- a security breach might discourage voters from particdom. It could potentially ipating in the next election, rethreaten the integrity of the sulting in a lower turnout and an whole system by opening a election result unrepresentative gate to cyberattacks. In the of the population of a constitunew digital age, cyberwar is ency. Lastly, and perhaps most no longer just a possibility crucially, it must be acknowl— it is a reality. States and edged that technology continuorganisations are all poously evolves and develops. Any tential targets, not only for system designed to handle the rogue states, but also tervital information gathered in the rorist organisations, hackvoting process must be constantPhoto: “i-voting - The Future of Elections?”, Juvien Galano, 2019. ers with ulterior motives, or ly updated and enhanced. Howjust vindictive individuals with the necessary technical ever, every update could expose the votes to further skills. The I-voting system places a lot of trust on the attacks, as cyber-warfare also evolves with technology. client (here, the voter’s chosen voting device) and on servers, which makes it highly attractive to attacks from Using Estonia as a model, there have been calls to the aforementioned actors. Simply put, computers are move voting online in other European countries such very complex machines and unfortunately, there is no as Romania. In the US, some states might choose to way to guarantee that the machine has not been or will implement some form of online voting in tandem with not be compromised. mail-in ballots and in-person voting. All these countries are NATO members, and have been, or continue A similar flaw was seen in New South Wales, where de- to be, targets for the Russian Federation. Ukraine is one spite the years of preparation that went into creating such nation that has been a target of attackers linked to and perfecting the system, one small mistake in the Russia, with the result of a delayed vote count. Promiform of the inclusion of analytics from an insecure ex- nent analysts agree that this is an increasing possibility ternal server still exposed the platform to vulnerabili- for other NATO member countries, and this possibility ties. The researchers from the Universities of Michigan would be exacerbated with a move to online voting. and Melbourne who uncovered the mistake discovered that at least one parliamentary seat was decided by a The Estonian experience is far from flawless, but it does much smaller margin than the sum of compromised help us better understand the security implications of votes. While the scope of the error might seem quite moving to online voting. However appealing it might minor at first glance, the impacts can thus be quite seem to some parts of the electorate, online voting is damaging. more threatening than the systems presently in place. The situation only worsens with the realisation that in The pandemic might not be here to stay, but the threats some instances, the attackers don’t even need to pene- presented by online voting are an ever-present reality. 28

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In emergency situations like the present, states can always hold elections under special social distancing rules and use mail-in voting for the more vulnerable regions. Rushing the process to hold elections this year or the next will only make things worse as the propensity to make mistakes will also drastically increase. Online voting might be a real and feasible choice in the future — unfortunately, it does not present itself as a viable solution today. Photo: Keystrokes reveal root passwords — Videos posted by Estonian officials during the election show operators typing, inadvertently revealing root passwords for election servers, Springall et.al. 2014.

COVID-19: A Security Threat With Environmental Ties

written by Andrea Peniche

he Covid-19 pandemic is anything but an unlikely event considering the dangerous pattern of emerging diseases tied to human exploitation of nature. Epidemics of this scale are set to become more frequent and destructive unless governments and citizens commit to the restoration of biodiversity and aim to consistently limit human infringement on nature. Covid-19 has already demonstrated the crippling public health and economic consequences emerging zoonotic diseases (diseases originating in animals before being transmitted to humans) can have. Despite its relatively low mortality rate, Covid-19’s highly infectious characteristics have nevertheless ravaged most countries. As governments struggle to cope with the many crises this pandemic has caused and exacerbated, Covid-19, as experienced in Mexico, has demonstrated its destabilising power, revealing the very real security threat future pandemics, in tandem with climate change, pose. Due to Covid-19, interest has further developed in the connection between biodiversity and the prevalence of zoonotic diseases. According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), zoonotic diseases currently make up more than 60% of known infectious diseases and 75% of those considered new or emerging. While much is still unknown about Covid-19, it is speculated that although its spread was heightened by the illegal trade of wild animals, a possible trigger for the spillover of Covid-19 lies in deforestation, a persistent environmental problem. How does deforestation factor into the spread of dis-

ease? Like many other zoonotic viruses that have emerged in humans, Covid-19 was already present in animal hosts within their natural environments — such as bats. When an ecosystem is healthy and harbours ample biodiversity with little outside disturbances, viruses are isolated in these habitats. Within these ecosystems, viruses act as a check on the populations of certain species, while other species—those less susceptible to the virus — act as a check on the virus itself, limiting the number of transmitted hosts and, thus, the spread of the virus. For this reason, biodiversity is incredibly important for the control of zoonotic diseases, however, it is deteriorating at an alarming rate. When ecosystems are destroyed or severely disturbed, their natural equilibrium is broken and spillovers occur. It is no coincidence that many zoonotic diseases — Covid-19 possibly included — experience a genesis and proliferation of human transmission along heavily deforested areas. When looking at the Ebola virus, another bat-related zoonotic disease, a similar pattern is observed. Human encroachment on the habitats of natural Ebola carriers through mass deforestation led to spikes in Ebola outbreaks along the edges of deforested areas. Once isolated deep in the rainforests of Africa, deforestation has forced animals infected with the Ebola virus into contact with humans and their livestock. These spillovers are not a one-off occurrence. Not only does deforestation increase the probability of repeat spillovers of already known zoonotic diseases, but it also

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heightens the likelihood of new zoonoses. This, coupled with the fact that a virus can spread around the world faster than its incubation period, threatens to make pandemics more frequent. The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) estimates that in 2019, thirty football fields worth of trees were lost every minute due to human impact in the tropics. The continuation of such unprecedented deforestation is unsustainable, with the magnitude of biodiversity loss threatening to severely destabilise the world through various pathways, Covid-19 included.

Photo: Illegal deforestation in Brazil, mainly caused by agricultural expansion, Guardian, Eyevine, Redux, 2020.

The 2020 UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) report estimated that due to Covid-19, the global economy will shrink by 3% over the next two years—a loss of up to 9 trillion USD. The effects of such widespread economic loss are already being felt as populations experience sharp increases in unemployment rates, unavailability of affordable goods, and food insecurity. Furthermore, the repercussions of this pandemic are not equally distributed and disproportionately affect socio-economically disadvantaged populations. More than 10 million Mexicans could fall into extreme poverty due to the economic implications of the pandemic — a lack of an effective response from the Mexican government currently exposes millions of Mexicans to food instability. Quick to fill the void left by the government, Mexico’s drug cartels have begun providing food and other necessities to families in the worsthit areas of Mexico. Unavoidably, there are strings attached to this ‘narco-philanthropy’: necessities are only provided in exchange for popular support. This is not a new tactic, but one previously used by Colombia’s notorious drug lord, Pablo Escobar. While the aid from Mexican cartels only reaches a few thousand families, the cartels have been able to emulate Escobar, solidify their regional strongholds and gain the loyalty of local populations. President López Obrador condemns the actions of the cartels but does nothing to rectify the dire situation millions of Mexicans are facing. This lack of authoritative action has only further enhanced local support for the cartels. Hence, like other climate change-related issues, diseases threaten to worsen already unstable states, which will have strong global security repercussions. Before the coronavirus pandemic, over 2 billion people worldwide lived in food-insecure conditions. As shown above, the pandemic has only increased this number, as national food supply chains are disrupted. This creates problems of instability and illegitimacy for govern-

Photo: Mexican gang-related violence has spiked, Reuters, 2020.

ments and opens up regional power vacuums because governments fail to provide for their constituents, rendering these populations vulnerable to the influences of non-state belligerents taking advantage of such situations. As locals turn to the cartels instead of their government for aid, these organisations have become more brazen in their operations. Assassinations in Mexico have increased to more than 3,000 per month, one of the highest crime rates ever recorded. A few months ago, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel attempted to assassinate top security officer Omar García Harfuch. Furthermore, the cartel recently published a video of its own militia brandishing military-grade weapons, equipment, and uniforms, an open challenge to the government by an emboldened violent organisation. Governmental absence is being felt, and Mexican drug cartels are taking advantage of the power vacuum Obrador is leaving behind — an instability that is largely exacerbated by the consequences of the pandemic.

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Photo: Yemen, worsening starvation and lessening already scarce access to food, Khaled Abdullah, Reuters, 2020.

Judging by the impact Covid-19 is having on global stability, the possibility of more frequent pandemics is truly terrifying, but there is a solution. The protection and increase of global biodiversity are of the most important tools for preventing future zoonoses and curtailing climate change. Nevertheless, biodiversity is deteriorating at an alarming rate, as 60% of all wildlife has been lost in a fifty-year span according to the WEF. An increase in future pandemics could damage the world more than Covid-19 already has. Food, water, and economic insecurities promise to reach record highs if resources are not allocated towards pandemic prevention and environmental protection. Action must therefore be taken immediately, an oft-repeated but necessary reminder. In order to fight pandemics, proactive rather than reactive measures are needed, and the same goes for biodiversity. The loss of biodiversity and other effects of climate change are no longer problems of the future. The consequences attached to these issues are being felt now. From human-driven climate change to human-driven habitat loss, it is our burden to rectify these dire projections of the future.

Given the lack of effective government presence, this explosion of violence, while thus far regionally constrained, has the potential to spill over into Mexicoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s neighbouring countries. The loss of biodiversity owing to Covid-19 has thus had wide-reaching political consequences. Like many other epidemics and climate-change-related problems, Covid-19 has created the perfect conditions for belligerent, non-governmental groups to rise, amass power, and replace governments in certain areas. The government has failed to provide the most basic needs to its people, allowing other forces to get involved. Zoonotic diseases are just another example of climate change-related crises that will continue to emerge as biodiversity is lost and global temperatures soar. These diseases exacerbate dire situations in certain countries. Covid-19 did not cause the cartels, the famines, or the resurgence of non-governmental groups, but it did facilitate their rise through an amalgam of disastrous conditions characteristic of climate-related issues.

Where do we go from here? Zoonotic diseases will never go away. As animals ourselves, we are part of those ecological systems that fuel spillovers of new diseases into our species. They are therefore ingrained in nature. Nevertheless, many such diseases can be prevented if global investment is diverted and focused on protecting biodiversity. A post-Covid-19 world must make climate change prevention a priority if it hopes to prevent not only worsening security threats, but also zoonotic diseases and environmental crises. There is hope for the future, but it must be fought and worked for. Pandemics do not just start with a virus. If governments are going to take preventative steps after Covid-19, they must focus on everything that lies in between the virus and human infection: deforestation, loss of biodiversity, and detrimental human habits. There are options out there, from revolutionising agricultural techniques (as agriculture is the number one driver of deforestation) to re-evaluating our relationship with food and waste. There is also hope. We must as a population, as a country, and as a species be willing to take drastic changes to our lives if we hope to avert future pandemics and preventable future climatic disasters.

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Photo: Donald Trump, Xi Jinping cold war conflict between the two.Peking, Damir Sagolj, Reuters, 2017.

Wars Have Been Fought For Less: The US-China Conflict Against the Backdrop of the Global Pandemic

written by Vaishnav Rajkumar

An escalating trade war, an expulsion of diplomats, and conspiracy theories about the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic — wars have been fought for less. These issues merely form the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the mounting tensions between the United States and China. It’s undeniable that the coronavirus pandemic has forced world leaders to focus most of their attention on internal state affairs, and has demanded a higher degree of effective statesmanship than what has been witnessed in recent times. However, China and the US have still managed to stoke the fires of their increasingly strained relationship over the last few months, and, in some instances, have even managed to weaponise the issue of the pandemic as a justification for hostility. After a period of general inactivity following the tariffs and sanctions of 2018, has the pandemic been trivialised to become a convenient smokescreen rationalising the actions of an ambitious despot, Xi Jin-

ping and a Machiavellian populist, President Trump? More importantly, perhaps, the article will discuss how the half-hearted nature of the Chinese response to US aggression can be attributed to China’s desire to prolong the truce amidst the trade war between the two countries. When the first reports of a deadly virus in Wuhan began to gain international attention, the rumours that usually accompany major global developments were not far behind. The tide of racial stereotyping and mischaracterisation that followed the spread of the virus in Europe and North America was of course not quelled by a President who labels one of the most critical health emergencies of the decade as a hoax and derogatorily refers to it as the “China-virus”. With a leader as unpredictable as Trump, it is impossible to identify how or why his antagonism toward China first originated.

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It is possible that he truly does care about protecting the interests of the American people by promoting and reinforcing their domestic industries — however, it is just as likely that he simply disliked a phone-call with Xi Jinping. Nevertheless, one thing is for certain: the vendetta between Trump and China has long surpassed economic tensions and has now affected everything from the Covid-19 response in America, to diplomatic ties, and even the TikTok app.

2018, when Trump first followed through on months of threats to impose tariffs on China, Xi Jinping was quick to retaliate with the imposition of tariffs on US goods. While some escalation did occur, in what was soon to evolve into a full-blown trade war, both countries eventually found themselves at a stalemate. Following a few more months of difficult negotiations, and January 2020 saw the signing of the Phase 1 deal — the first steps toward a truce.

The trajectory of Trump’s response to the coronavirus outbreak in America over the course of the last six months is quite reflective of his leadership style. First, there are the intransigent accusations of a hoax, coupled with contradictory allegations that the virus was engineered in China as a form of biological warfare. Second, a partial acquiescence that a problem might exist, while still denouncing the advice of seasoned medical professionals from the Centre for Disease Control and the World Health Organisation in a futile attempt at exerting his authority. Lastly, an almost complete recanting of his previous stance, while assuming credit for any minor successes brought about by the efforts of people like Dr. Anthony Fauci who continually worked to counteract the damages wrought by Trump’s denial. This compressed timeline of Trump’s behaviour over the last six months is quite unsurprising — anyone who has followed American politics even at the most superficial level over the past few years would know that Trump is, above all, an opportunist. Thus, it could almost be foretold that Trump would view the news of a dangerous pathogen first detected in China as an opportunity to further criticise one of America’s major competitors in the global economy, rather than as a critical situation requiring strong leadership and the implementation of vital precautions.

Up until 2018, China and the US had a well-functioning bilateral economic relationship benefiting both parties. Though some argue that the US was disproportionately better off owing to the considerable part of the US labour market supported by exports to China, these arguments fail to consider the economic advantages for China, and more importantly, the recognition and power it has gained from its relationship with the US and how this newfound potential factors into its agenda to become a significant actor in the global economy. It can therefore be claimed that a truce is in the interest of both countries — and while Trump’s recent actions imply he hasn’t arrived at this conclusion, the actions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are certainly in accordance with this claim. It is quite interesting that for all the bluster and false bravado Trump displays during his recent protracted media attacks against China, Xi Jinping and his government’s only response has been weak variations of the phrase “Beijing will retaliate” with little to no follow-through. When Trump was using all his press conferences as a platform to berate and pin the blame of the pandemic on China, there was no immediate response from the Chinese government — perhaps they simply didn’t deign the rantings of “the Donald” worthy of a response.

Perhaps the most astonishing element of this story, however, is China’s response, or lack thereof, to Trump’s actions. China’s rise to emerging superpower status can only be described as meteoric — it has been characterised by the modernisation of equipment and increased efficiency of labour to spur radical economic development and has also seen a transformation in its military strategy and power projection capability. It’s role in the infamous South China Sea dispute, coupled with its track record of dealing with and administering the regions of Taiwan and Hong Kong, and its response to various international conflicts in the past have provided China with a ruthless image as far as its pursuit of self-serving interests is concerned. In the summer of

When the US government went on to expel Chinese diplomats and shut down the consulate in Houston on charges of espionage, a predictable yet anti-climactic response was given. Granted, this may seem to be an unfair characterisation of Chinese actions — the Foreign Ministry and medical professionals in China did go on to dispute the false allegations made by Trump regarding the coronavirus, and the CCP did shut down a US consulate in Chengdu as retaliation for Houston. Why, then, do these responses come across as uncharacteristically cold and measured — possibly because they originate in a nation that has spent decades cultivating a reputation as a political firebrand? Political pundits have chalked up China’s deviation

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Emerging Securities from the norm to the one issue that has taken the world by storm in the last few months: the Covid-19 pandemic. The rationalisation is fairly straightforward — the Chinese government, like all other nations across the world, has chosen to focus their governance efforts on internal issues to help the country rise up from the health crisis. They are simply going through the motions and engaging in the bare minimum responses to Trump and his antics while prioritising the good of their own people. If that truly is the case, and an authoritarian leader known for his harsh and unrelenting policies for development has chosen to prioritise saving the Chinese people over his customary rivalries, it paints democratically-elected Trump (who seems to prioritise his personal tirades over the good of the American people) in a very poor light. However, while innocuous explanations abound for all of China’s relative inactivity over the last few months, there is another, more convincing justification that links all these actions together — that China wants the US back as an ally, economically and politically, and that it is tiptoeing around these issues hoping not to reopen old wounds that have just begun to heal. For the claims that Xi Jinping has settled down to focus on the interests of the general Chinese populace aren’t completely meritorious. Indeed, China has been quite aggressive in its continued assertion of territorial claims over the last few months, be it in relation to the presence of Japanese and Vietnamese shipping vessels in the South and East China Seas, or the most recent skirmish along the Galwan river valley with Indian troops. It can thus be surmised that the unprecedentedly lukewarm responses to America are not due to the pressures of the pandemic — rather, the only factor differentiating China’s response in these instances is that the other party involved is the US. Why is it that China is suddenly pulling its punches against the US? Is it only an effort to avoid any disruption to the truce that the nations are working towards, or is it a veil for a hidden agenda pursued by the two superpowers? Judging on the basis of Trump’s continued forays in the media targeting China, it seems unlikely that any ulterior motives are shared among the two countries. In the last few months, China has promised retaliation to a host of US actions and incursions, from the increased American naval presence in the South China Sea, to the stifling of Chinese competition in the global market through Microsoft’s acquisition of TikTok operations in the US. However, it is worrying that China’s counters have been highly unreflective of its true potential — is the worse yet to come? 34

Photo: Trump Side Profile, Joe Raedle, Getty Images, 2017.

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Le Damier Jauneby Clara Maire Autumn 2020 • Dialogue

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Interviews edited by Josh Ewell

Photos: An ETIV students, who attend the classes at the school, 2020.

Photo: Jaci Braga Founder and Director of ETIV do Brasil, etivdobrasil.org, 2020

36â&#x20AC;&#x192;

Photos: An ETIV volunteer planting trees, 2020.

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In Conversation with Jaci Braga, Founder & Director of ‘ETIV do Brasil’ written by Valeria Sinisi García

Photos: Life at the Charity ETIV do Brasil, etivdobrasil instagram, 2020

Photos: An ETIV students, who attend the classes at the school, 2020.

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Interviews “The world is an unfair place for most people;” this is the response that Jaci Braga, an eleven-year-old half Brazilian half American girl on her first-ever visit to Brazil, received when asking her family why they wouldn’t give some change to the group of children in tornup clothes, begging at their car window. It is also the phrase which made young Jaci decide what her mission in life was going to be: working for a more fair and just world. Thirty years later, in 2015, she was finally ready to fulfil her lifelong dream of founding an NGO in a deeply deprived location in Brazil. Jaci then settled in Itacaré, a small town on the coast of the State of Bahia, and created ‘ETIV do Brasil,’ an organisation “which envisions a world where more people care for each other and the environment, actively creating greater equality and opportunities for all.” Through education and international volunteering, ‘ETIV’ works towards supporting development in Brazil and spreading practices of environmental conservation, working with the youth of the area. Jaci’s story and the mission of her organisation have since touched many hearts, and between the collection of these we can find mine; in June 2020, I began volunteering for them. Jaci’s warm character, and her experience in psychology and social work, alongside the mission of the NGO, has enabled her to build a very large group of unconditional supporters towards achieving her goal. Despite this, the coronavirus pandemic has been very tough on ETIV and its work in the community in Itacaré. They had to close their facilities and interrupt most of their programs which could not be continued through digital means. Furthermore, Brazil has been hit by a double threat. With the arrival of the wet season, there has also been a wave of dengue fever, which created an epidemic amidst a global pandemic. This, added to the lack of support that the Brazilian government is providing, creates a terrifying and unpredictable time for its citizens. Jaci remains in Itacaré to care for her institution and continue working on her mission to support the development and environmental conservation in the area. She has sat down, virtually, with Dialogue to tell us more about what programs were the most impactful overall and what she has been doing to continue serving her cause despite a national lockdown. We also look at how ETIV has had to adapt to the pandemic and why currently, the term post-Covid does not really apply to Brazil. Before the pandemic, which of the programs that

Photo: Jaci Braga Founder and Director of ETIV do Brasil, etivdobrasil.org, 2020

you lead with ETIV did you feel was having the most profound impact? “I think our ‘LitClub for girls’ program was the best program that we offered. It was one of the best-financed, structured and sophisticated ones; we were working with LitWorld, Global Glow and the HerStory Campaign, three international projects that work towards youth, and especially female, literacy. This program was designed to encourage and empower girls in Itacaré to share their stories and create a more inclusive environment for themselves. During this program, we won the amazing opportunity to send two of our girls to New York and participate in the United Nations ‘Day of the Girl’ event as well as the HerStory summit. This was a fantastic opportunity. These girls had never left Itacaré before, hence they were able to interact with and hear stories from other girls from all over the world, in an event that was created just for them. It inspired them to look at the ways women are treated differently and unfairly in their own communities and to work hard to change that. Apart from this, another program which I think was also very influential was our swimming lessons. With the support of the British NGO SwimTakya, we started teaching children in and around Itacaré how to swim. It’s a very intense program, but it’s also the one the kids love the most. We had over one hundred kids participate last year and, because we added complementary and obligatory environmental education classes in order to participate in the swimming lessons, we were able to educate and teach these children how to care and respect nature.”

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Environmental education is often listed as one of the most important and effective ways to tackle climate change; were you able to continue it despite the lockdown?

Interviews of our primary goals is to create a more sophisticated campaign in support of the protection of our environment, as well as our efforts to raise awareness of the need for basic sanitation as a public health and human rights issue.”

“Unfortunately, we couldn’t: because of health concerns and government regulations we had to close How do you see ETIV existing in a post-Covid world? all of our in-person programs. Nonetheless, for the first two months of lockdown, we were handing out “We’ve been quarantined since March 20th, so our comour educational packages. These were both LitWorld munity was less affected in comparison to the nearby packets as well as an English curriculum for the chil- bigger cities. However, Itacaré just decided to open dren to learn and practice the language. However, we up again. So far we have seen a huge surge in tourism did translate and then distribute the LitWorld packets which makes us worry for a new spike of coronavirus in Portuguese for them to better understand. When it cases. Therefore, the term post-Covid does not make comes to environmental education we did not contin- much sense because right now the pandemic is still ue that until now as part of our ‘Itacaré Pura’ campaign. raging, and it’s spreading faster than it ever has in Brazil. It’s a campaign which our girls from the LitClubs will We were initially hoping to re-open our programs with be launching and leading virtually smaller numbers, and our facilities on World Cleanup Day in September, by September or October, but this “Working virtually sharing their stories and encouragdoes not look possible anymore. ing others to do the same and care Now we predict that we will not be made it possible for for their environment. We are the first able to start our programmes for at LitClub in the world that has worked least a couple more months, and so many people to get on environmental education and probably not until 2021. We are conservation initiatives with girls. going to have to do a lot more virinvolved with us from The campaign will also be focustual work rather than interact with ing on basic sanitation and raising all over the world.” the community directly. We finally awareness on how incredibly importhad time to take a step back and ant handwashing and hygiene are to see what other things we could stop the spread of Covid-19, as well do during this time off. Therefore, as many other infectious diseases.” we decided to work on and strengthen the mangrove forest in Itacaré. Mangroves are essential in the fight How have you stayed in contact with your against climate change as they store great amounts of volunteers and how have you adapted to carbon and they can grow in conditions that most oththe pandemic? er trees cannot grow in, so we made a great effort to restore and conserve it. We also started to grow an organic garden within our compound, with papaya trees “When Covid-19 began to spread, we immediately and tomatoes. The community loves it, and they regbegan to build a virtual team. Luciana Lima, a volunularly ask us to pick our fruit; it feels amazing to know teer who was helping me with administrative work, that we can support our people in such a sustainable helped me build two different virtual teams, a Portuand healthy way, even with such a simple thing as proguese-speaking one, for all our Brazilian and Portuviding them with healthy food. This is undoubtedly a guese volunteers, and an English-speaking one that tough time for the world, and we haven’t been spared, included many of our past volunteers, alongside future but we are confident that this will end and we will be volunteers. It was amazing to see this virtual world come able to resume our usual work and continue achieving together so efficiently. We were able to meet with them our goal to make the world a better place for everyone.” much more frequently and without the obvious risks of meeting in person. Working virtually made it possible for so many people to get involved with us from all over ‘ETIV do Brasil’ is always open to welcome new volunthe world without having to worry about the cost and teers, both virtual and in-person. Head to their website environmental impact of a journey to Brazil. Our volun- to apply today: etivdobrasil.org. teers are involved in everything from marketing to recruitment, fundraising, research and social media. One This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

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Interviews

Graduating into a Pandemic written by Josh Ewell Photo: Two senior students at a graduation ceremony at Wuhan University, CFP, 2020.

Finding a job after graduation is always a number one concern of those coming to an end of their university experience. However, for those graduating this year, the Covid-19 pandemic means they are entering a job market which is much more unstable.

ing months, with 15% stating they were reducing their intake of new employees.

We spoke to one such student, James from West London, who started studying Economics at Cambridge University in 2017. He was due to graduate this year Since the introduction of tuition fees in 1998 (and and has completed his degree. Yet, still, no formal cerehighly unpopular trebling of fees in 2010) students mony has been held to ratify his graduation due to onhave been encouraged to see their education as an in- going concerns with the virus. vestment, balancing the cost of a marketised degree against the potential ‘profit’ of enhanced earnings in James hoped to find an entry-level graduate role within their future career. The cohort graduating in 2020 face the finance sector but remarks that the job opportunithe worst of all worlds, having taken on high levels of ties available are very sparse. He says the difference in debt to find that there are limited opportunities for per- the finance job market before and after the pandemic began is discernible: Covid-19 has had a massive negasonal advancement. tive effect on the ability to find employment, especialA poll by the careers website Prospect.ac.uk found that ly for new graduates. He also knows people who have 26% of students have had work experience or an intern- had post-graduation jobs offers simply withdrawn due ship cancelled and just under 30% have had a graduate to the economic crisis. job offer delayed or withdrawn. Wider research suggests over 60% of students feel negative about their job prospects, as the economic fallout from the virus and government’s ongoing ‘lockdowns’ become clear. This is further corroborated by the attitudes of major firms: around 40% say they are unclear about how many students will be recruited in the com-

At the moment, James has taken up a job tutoring younger people on A-Level work and university applications but admits this is just for financial independence after university. He raised an important point that job-searching is not just about finding any job but about finding a job in a sector you are suited for and that you wish to pursue long-term. As many other stu-

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

Interviews dents would find, he wisely stated that he did not want reers pages, detailing the ramifications of the pandemto compromise drastically in the field in which he want- ic and how students can best adapt to job-seeking in ed to work in and pursue a job that he ultimately would this new world. not enjoy in long term prospects. James speaks positively about the Cambridge careers A more concerning point James also raised, was the service, saying it had been very helpful and professionplight of some of his friends who are international al over his first two years at university. He had secured students, often from beyond Europe. With ongoing a 10-week internship within finance in his second year changes to the immigration system, exacerbated by and found this experience to be valuable and stimuuncertainty over the Brexit negotiations, many feared lating, cementing his decision to enter into this sector that they would be forced to leave the UK. Current pro- after graduation. posals suggest that students, beginning in 2020 and going forwards, will have up to two years to find a job However, during James’ final year at Cambridge, the on a student visa after graduating, but international careers service underwent some changes. Around the students graduating this year have only a limited pe- onset of the pandemic, they switched to a new website called ‘Handshake’, similar to a LinkedIn-style social netriod of four months to find work or face deportation. He also relates that even for British graduates, the crisis work rather than a traditional jobs board for graduates. is having certain negative impacts. He speaks of people As opposed to being able to search through and apply from other parts of the UK whose real goal for career for jobs, the website is now based on building a profile advancement was to move to London, which offers with your experience and interests, in order to try to more opportunities for graduates than some other re- attract potential employers. For James, the Handshake gions of the UK. For people aiming to move to London, website, with its focus on social networking rather than he speaks of ‘urgency’ in trying to find a job and not get connecting graduates to job opportunities, meant it left behind, but says they too, like others, have difficulty was more difficult to actively search and encounter jobs. Despite this, such employment-orientated social in finding jobs. media platforms are likely to become more prevalent in However, searching for a position amidst the job mar- a post-Covid world, as more of life is carried out virtualket is not the only option. James knows many people ly rather than in person. who have considered gaining further qualifications in this period of uncertainty, with many of them applying Hopefully, graduates can adjust to a new world where to Masters courses for the upcoming year. However, he technology is key to finding stable and long-term embelieves that postgraduate application processes were ployment. As the UK GDP fell by 20.4%, the country is becoming much more competitive. Many students had undergoing the deepest recession since records began similar ideas about staying in education and upskilling and the worst amongst the G7 nations, it seems the whilst the worst of the economic crisis raged and then economic fallout from Covid-19 will continue to haunt us for some time to come. Examples of its impact are attempting to secure a job after it had subsided. evident right across the economy, not just for students, Despite uncertain and shifting times, university careers with around 650,000 existing job losses from across a services have done their best to respond to the ‘new wide range of sectors and 48,000 Further Education apnormal’. These included offering services specific to ap- prenticeships cancelled. For students graduating this plications made during the pandemic, such as advice year, or in the next several years, they can only hope for on how to approach online interviews and test centre a sharp, ‘v-shaped’ recovery which will bring the British exams. Universities such as King’s College London and economy, and students’ hopes, back to some sense of Edinburgh have added new features to their online Ca- normality.

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edited by Lily Hardcastle

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

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The Future for the Most Centralised Country in the World written by Lily Hardcastle

ith the highest number of reported cases and deaths from coronavirus (over 46,000) in Europe, people are beginning to question the reason for Britainâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s failures in handling the pandemic. The finger of blame has been pointed in every direction. But can we blame the set-up of our systems of governance?

Photo: GLYN KIRK/AFP via Getty Images, 2020.

The Institute for Public Policy Research says that power in the UK is the most centralised in the world. This means that power is sequestered in the centre, held by a minority of individuals, rather than dispersed throughout the system. In Britain, this concretely translates into a strong, powerful government in Westminster which works alone to determine and implement policies on a national scale, contrasted by weak local authorities in the periphery of the country. Many think that Britain fared much worse during the coronavirus outbreak because of its overly centralised system of governance, which inhibited its response. Testing capabilities proved insufficient, as rather than using existing facilities, capable of carrying out testing on a large scale, such as universities, Public Health England (PHE) decided to centralise its response and only use its own infrastructure. When it needed to accelerate its pace, it decided to build its own testing facilities from scratch. Only when this was still not enough did it belatedly begin to use private laboratories by early April. Similarly, the government rejected requests for funding for existing contact-tracing apps as far back as March as it declared that it was in the process of developing its own. These are some examples of the British government failing to utilise many existing resources, in order to keep its power centralised. The government committed an even larger mistake by ignoring local authorities. In the UK, each local council has a Director of Public Health (DPH), who has expertise in local contact tracing, having previously dealt with localised outbreaks of sexually transmitted diseases.

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However, the government has neglected to use local experts to their full potential, instead opting for a centralised policy. This is reflected by blanket lockdowns across the entire country, as well as ‘one size fits all’ rules that don’t reflect the reality on the ground of the pandemic.

“we do not have local government. We have councils that [...] administer the policies of the central government”.Many failures also stem from the UK’s highly centralised healthcare system. Public health used to be organised locally, at least until 1974, when restructuring moved DPH out of local government. In 2003, reforms by health secretary Andrew Lansley complicated the Most concerningly, it has failed to share data and col- healthcare system further, splitting responsibility for laborate with local authorities. Nick Forbes, leader of public health between PHE and local authorities. It also Newcastle city council reports that rather than receiv- put DPH back into local authorities, but with funding ing a formal government briefing, he first heard of the cuts and diminished powers, grants for public health government’s change of message from ‘stay home’ to given to local authorities decreased by 1/5 in the years ‘stay alert’ on national television. following 2014.Experts warned at the time that these Similarly, Leicester’s mayor, Sir Peter Soulsby has reforms could be detrimental. DPH for county Durham, claimed that their recent outbreak was worsened by Anna Lynch, warned: “that the public will be less safe at government delays in passing on times of outbreak or pandemic”. Lynch data to local authorities. He alworries that consequential funding “It is unlikely that leges that data is of poor quality, cuts and a lack of healthcare workers only identifying Covid-19 cases at would leave us more exposed in times these changes will a postcode level, and not specof crisis, as when Covid-19 broke out, ifying important details such as PHE only had 290 people to track and translate into inaddresses, workplaces, or ethnictrace the disease. creased powers for ity.Despite the government providing more data from mid-July, them in the future” Nevertheless, some have praised the by breaking down data into local government for their centralisation, areas of 5,000-15,000 people, this claiming they want a strong, powerful has been reported to be insuffigovernment to guide us through hard cient. Andy Burnham, Mayor of times. So, what could the alternative have been? GenerGreater Manchester, feels like “a local detective being ally, more decentralised countries have tended to fare asked to solve a crime without the names and addressbetter throughout the outbreak. Switzerland, Germany es of witnesses or suspects”. By ignoring the local councils, the private sector and and South Korea have been cited for having responded other organisations which had the means to provide successfully to Covid-19, and all have done so through concrete help, the government drastically damaged a decentralised approach. The most commonly cited Britain’s response to Covid-19. According to David Buck example is Germany. But, should the UK learn future of the Kings Trust think tank, “a lot of time had been lessons from the German response? wasted in not involving local government sooner”. It is thought that if the UK had gone into lockdown just a week earlier, 20,000 lives could have been saved. Every Germany’s healthcare and public health systems are second has been precious, and the government has embedded in local government. In the crisis, the fedwasted much time and failed to harness many resourc- eral government provided extra funds and resources, but the response was mainly local. Instead of setting es in the pursuit of maintaining centralised power. up large central labs from scratch, Germany predomHowever, centralised Britain is not anything new. Even inantly used a network of 150 existing labs across the before the pandemic, local councils were underfunded country and was able to maintain high levels of testing and underutilised. According to Rob Whiteman, of UK throughout the outbreak by utilising local health care Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy, bodies with experience in infectious disease tracking.

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Most importantly, local authorities had the power to take resources from areas that had been put on hold during lockdown, such as libraries, and re-allocate them towards healthcare. This is only possible in a decentralised system, which effectively makes the most of every resource that the state possesses. Rob Whiteman praises the German model, stating that “Germany has benefited from local public services that do not need to wait for permission” from the central government. Many think that this is the way forward. Guardian journalist John Harris states that “power needs to be taken from the centre and dispersed: the future needs to be founded on a huge boost to councils’ share of the tax take, the devolution of everything from health to trans port, and fully localised responses to any future emergencies”. However, a decentralised state may not be the defining factor for a good response to the crisis. The successes of Germany, Switzerland and Korea contrast the disasters seen in parts of the USA. Regardless, there is already evidence that the crisis is changing the UK. The government, albeit belatedly, realised that the virus needed to be addressed locally. On the 18th July, the government handed power to local councils, enabling them to enforce “lightning lockdowns”, closing public spaces and cancelling events in the event of outbreaks. However, these changes do not give local councils much power or many resources. It is unlikely that these changes will translate into increased powers for them in the future.The firm Deloitte sees more evidence of changing attitudes already, believing that the pandemic has created a “high-pressure environment” in which government agencies, the public and private sectors have all come together in the public interest. However, it also acknowledges that amid the chaos, “there is a danger those ideas will be lost”. According to Colin Talbot of Manchester University, now is the time to be seriously discussing changes that could be made to the British systems of government. He says that “Radically rebalancing the central and the local is now more needed than ever, and not just to deal with crises”. One asks, will this truly happen? This is certainly a large concern. Despite the acknowledgement of the failures of our centralised systems, it is highly likely that the British government will return

Photo: Boris Johnson at the final daily coronavirus briefing in Downing Street, Sky News, 2020.

to business as usual after the health-crisis. Talbot cites the world wars and the ‘temporary’ centralising measures that were put in place in the national interest, that have since become permanent, claiming that “the weakening of local government has gone on for over a century”. Howard Bernstein, former Chief executive of Manchester City Council, echoes this and thinks that we need to reorganise both national and local government, but does not see much proof of that happening. The coronavirus pandemic has seriously exposed the faults of Britain’s centralised systems. It has caused deaths and strained the country to its brink. We can see what needs to be done, chiefly more power and resources for local councils and more collaboration between the government and private institutions, and yet it seems that the most centralised country in the world may be becoming even more so.

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Modern-Day Slavery, Starvation Wages and Environmental exploitation:

Coronavirus has exposed the Atrocities of the British Garment Industry. But How Might It Change? written by Lily Hardcastle

Photo: women workers stitch garments for fast-fashion foreign brands. Mehedi Hasan, NurPhoto, PA, 2020.

ovid-19 has profoundly affected many aspects of British industry, which does not exclude the fashion industry. When a lockdown was initially imposed on March 23rd, clothing sales naturally plummeted. Furloughed employees, those made redundant and those quarantined, had neither the money nor the reason to be purchasing clothes, leading to a 34% drop in clothing sales in March and a resultant massive surplus of stock. These figures raised concerns for those in the industry. Brands such as Laura Ashley and Debenhams have recently gone into administration and there were fears that many others would not survive. Yet, whilst other big brands were failing, fast-fashion giant Boohoo experienced a rise in profits. Having withstood the shock to the industry, Boohoo managed to increase their sales figures from those of 2019, resulting in the big bosses rewarding themselves with bonuses amounting to up to £150 million. Meanwhile, many of their British workers were on wages of just £3 per hour. The discovery of modern-day slavery in Boohoo’s Leicester factories has shocked the nation. Wage theft, hazardous working conditions and stories of Covid-19 tearing through factories has horrified customers. The sheer scale of the illegal industry - involving up to 10,000 workers - was deemed ‘appalling’ by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. What appears to be more shocking is the revelation that both the local British council and the national government have been well aware of these atrocities for years. Journalist Lucy O’Connor demanded some answers in an article written for the Financial Times in 2018. How could she buy a dress from Boohoo for £6, when the minimum wage for over 25s was £7.83 per hour. Her article went on to expose the so-called ‘dark factories’ in Leicester, in which £5 was the top wage. Despite local authorities being aware of this, no one has seemed to challenge or question this discrepancy. The corruption of the British garment industry was revealed to underpin not only Boohoo’s soaring profits but also those of numerous other well-known brands and retailers. Covid-19 exposed more brands, factories and retailers neglecting their workers’ rights. ASOS was accused by British industrial Trade Union GMB of hazardous working conditions at the height

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of the pandemic. Workers described a ‘cradle of disease’ in their warehouses, in which hundreds of extra members of staff had been recruited in order to deal with soaring order numbers with no social distancing measures in place. Figures surfaced that 4,000 workers were crammed into an ASOS warehouse in Barnsley, in which 98% felt unsafe to work. This narrative was seen again and again amongst other factory workers, including those at warehouses owned by brand Pretty Little Thing, in which social distancing was deemed “impossible”. Brands putting their workers at risk in order to ensure high profits demonstrates the truly devastating human impact of fast fashion. The second lockdown imposed in Leicester on June 29th has been attributed by politicians and publications alike to be linked to the lack of protection for workers in the garment industry - 70% of which is dedicated to producing for Boohoo. One asks how many fatalities have occurred through the fast-fashion industry’s ceaseless pursuit of profit? The problem does not end here. As Labour MP Claudia Webbe comments, “Leicester’s garment industry and the crisis it presents is just a microcosm of the global assault on workers’ rights”. Ultimately, this pandemic has exposed the universal nature of the garment industry’s cruelty. As sales dropped at the beginning of lockdown in the UK, retailers faced an enormous surplus of stock. Aside from being hugely wasteful, this constituted large losses of money. Retailers including Primark and New Look soon began cancelling orders with overseas factories, not only for future orders but also for those in production. 1,089 factories in Bangladesh alone have had orders cancelled, amounting to $1.5 billion in total. This is thought to have impacted 1.2 million workers, and will undoubtedly knock Bangladesh’s economy, of which the garment-making industry usually totals 13% of the country’s GDP. These workers were already on starvation wages, earning below the necessary amount to pay for necessities, and now have no way to feed their families, let alone afford the cost of medical bills as Covid-19 infiltrates the country. Western firms do not seem phased by these events and their significant repercussions. New Look announced that it would cancel orders that were already in produc-

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Britain tion, warning its supply chain that payment would be Why do fast-fashion retailers not seem to be pursuing delayed indefinitely. When challenged regarding this the same goals? decision, it stated that “this is a matter of survival”. And Consumers appear to be increasingly wary of the yet, the ‘survival’ of its workers was not discussed. fast-fashion industry and its atrocities. Since the lockWriting in the Business of Fashion, garment manufac- down, 52% of people intend to make long-term changturer Mostafiz Uddin urges us to “remember, poverty es to their fashion consumption, with the figure rising to is a killer too, and many more people die from pover- 70% among 16-24-year-olds. A third of women report ty than Covid-19”. Covid-19 has brought to light many that they will be buying fewer clothes in the future. It is of the deficiencies of the garment industry, and un- interesting to note that Boohoo’s loss in sales contrasts doubtedly exacerbated these issues. However, there is sharply with booming sales on resale platforms such as hope that this will have brought about some positive Depop, perhaps demonstrating our changing attitude change, and that life after Covid-19 will see changes to towards clothing consumption. this ruthless industry. Campaign group Fashion Revolution, hopes that If these attitudes continue to change, they could have Covid-19 will put an end to fast-fashion, and that “our hugely positive effects on the global garment indusdays indoors can bring about revolutions in caring for try in the post-Covid-19 world. Under pressure from our clothes better, mending and consumers, for example, Primark has making clothing, and adopting already announced that it will create a mindset of longevity when it a fund to compensate supply chain ““if we do nothing, comes to our wardrobes”. This asworkers. the fashion industry The question remains, will it last? Acpiration is echoed by Dame Anna Wintour, who feels “very strongly will simply return to cording to Fashion Revolution, “if we that when we come out at the othdo nothing, the fashion industry will er end, people’s values are really simply return to business as usual business as usual” going to have shifted”. when this is all over”. It sees it as the The first positive sign that this is responsibility of the consumer to deoccurring has been Boohoo’s drop mand sustainability and transparency in both popularity and market value. After its factory from brands, and reject the ruthless over-consumption scandal came to light, investors began dropping out, we are bingeing on at this present moment. and a loss in sales led to a £1 billion drop in market val- Covid-19 is undoubtedly going to make brands focus ue over a week. Many customers chose to boycott the on their survival, putting workers’ rights and the susbrand, and retailers including Next, Amazon, Very and tainability of their products on the back-burner. HowZalando removed Boohoo clothing for sale on their ever, Fashion United calls businesses to “integrate suswebsites. This implies a positive change, in which con- tainability throughout business recovery strategies”, sumers value transparency and integrity from brands, and retailer Zalando sees “a clear link between sustainthus purchasing from companies that achieve this with ability and continued commercial success”. Fashion their money. A survey of 6,000 people across the UK, United spoke to the vice president of public engagethe US, Germany, Italy and China demonstrated that ment at Patagonia, Rick Ridgeway, who claims that “the consumers favourably viewed brands which also paid metrics we use to measure the health of our businesses their furloughed employees, donated money to coro- should also include the health of our planet”. navirus-related causes, and used their facilities to help make Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). During this crisis, our worlds have shrunk. People have decreased their closet consumption accordingly, and Notable changes have also been witnessed in the lux- perhaps this global industry will equally shrink to a ury fashion market. Louis Vuitton has repurposed its sustainable size. At the very least, it is hoped that the perfume factories towards the production of hand san- demand for change will force the main culprits to take itizer. Prada has been donating large sums to intensive responsibility for their workers, their carbon footprint, care units in Milan. Burberry is not only funding vaccine and their supply chains - from Leicester to Bangladesh. research but has also adapted its global supply chain to fast track masks to the NHS. 48

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Photo: The statue of Edward Colston was pushed into the harbour after being toppled by protesters, BBC News, PA Media, 2020.

BLACK LIVES MATTER: The Power of Social Media in Protest written by Caroline Rayner

he killing of African-American George Floyd on May 25th in Minneapolis, Minnesota, the U.S by four white police officers sparked a global movement of outrage and protest, under the slogan “Black Lives Matter” (BLM).

Millions of individuals took to the streets to express their deep rage and sadness about this horrific event, as well as against the omnipresent racism in our society. The BLM movement did not leave the United Kingdom exempt, as it raised several heated discussions on the legitimacy of countless statues of figures with direct or indirect ties to slavery. On June 7th, the statue of the seventeenth-century merchant Edward Colston in Bristol was toppled during a BLM protest, before being replaced by a statue of a BLM protester by the contemporary artist Marc Quinn. Meanwhile, in Oxford, students have expressed their fundamental disagreement with particular statues around the university. Coinciding with the height of the coronavirus pandemic and British lockdown, this event assumed an even more distinct and unique aspect. With many unable to join the protests in person, people displayed their public outrage online. The London protest on June 7th alone saw 22,000 people join online via zoom, Instagram and Facebook Live.

Social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and Instagram have been powerful weapons in the hands of protestors in recent weeks, leading us to ask: what role did social media have in the toppling of the statues in the United Kingdom? Could social media continue to inspire protest movements in the future? There is no doubt that, nowadays, social media accelerates communication and the spreading of news. This is also the case for the Black Lives Matter movement - founded online in 2013. The hashtag “Black Lives Matter” has now been used over 30 million times on social network Twitter alone. In particular, when it came to the toppling of statues, both social media and the internet were extremely vital to the movement. After the Edward Colston statue was toppled and pulled into the Bristol harbour, countless online petitions started circulating, demanding the toppling of other offensive statues across the country. Hashtag #toppletheracists came to life in order to denounce and accelerate the process of removing statues of controversial figures. Another controversial case that was widely discussed in the media was that of the statue of Cecil John Rhodes, located in Oriel College Oxford. A firm believer in British imperialism and white supremacy, his statue was condemned by countless students in what is an increas-

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Britain ingly multicultural institution. A petition, under the slogan “Rhodes must fall” was launched on the website “change.org”, gaining more than 100,000 signatures. As a result, the University of Oxford ordered the removal of the Cecil John Rhodes statue. Despite the fervour of the movement, the fact that social media normalises toppling statues, by rendering it a daily sight for us heightens fears for some that it indirectly imposes specific hegemonic ideas on civil society without us even noticing. These people wonder whether social media may escalate future protest and counter-protest movements, subliminally pushing people into two increasingly distinct camps.

British politicians, Keir Starmer in particular, have used their social media to express certain disagreement towards the toppling of the Bristol statue. Social media is also frequently criticised for not truly representing the opinion or the will of the majority of the population. However, according to a recent survey on the toppling of the statue of Edward Colston in Bristol, out of the 10,252 individuals questioned, 61 percent thought it was right to take it down. This partially mirrors what we see on social media.

The coincidence of the Covid-19 pandemic with the BLM protests gave them a remarkably important character. Feelings of resentment towards the government Omar Wasow, professor at Princeton University, can and their handling of the crisis may have fuelled the BLM movement even further, which see the benefits of social media for can be considered a protest against protest movements, but wonders “Online platforms the lack of transparency and efficien“if there’s also more that could be cy of the authorities. done on sites like Facebook and are increasingly Twitter to bring people togeththe timing of the moveer rather than sorting them into becoming places for Additionally, ments coincided with the peak of camps”. Since the concept of social lockdown in the UK. Those who took activism and media activism lies in the fact that to the streets despite the social disusers can re-post information on debate.” tancing regulations, were desperate their personal page, it does often to demonstrate the severity of the islead to a mainstream pattern of sues at hand. For those who remained thought, or what opponents of the at home, protests were streamed onmovement claim to be ‘mob mentality’ - to a far greater line and petition links were shared. Social media was degree than mainstream media. their chosen weapon in this fight. Furthermore, social media platforms do not lend themselves to addressing more fundamental intellec- Another outcome of the Covid-19 pandemic is the fact tual questions that could spark a genuine construc- that we are striving to value human lives more, caustive debate. For example, there have been numerous ing many of us to reexamine our societies and rethink calls and online petitions to topple statues of Winston what is important to us. There is no doubt that social Churchill or Mahatma Gandhi, due to clear evidence of media has changed this movement. Equally, this movetheir anti-black racist past. However, these individuals ment has changed social media. Online platforms are have also contributed to forming British society and, in increasingly becoming places for activism and debate. Gandhi’s case, Indian independence, which leads to the Even after Covid-19, it seems that this will continue and question: where do we draw the line between good that online presence will be extremely positive for fuand bad people? Twitter’s 280 character limit leaves lit- ture protest movements. Not only would this help give traction to movements by giving them an additional tle room for informed debates. platform by which to raise awareness, but it could also Since anyone can express their opinions on social me- provide a safe space to protest and debate, for examdia, there has also been a wave of opposition to the ple for those more so in countries where taking place statue-toppling movement. These views have gone in demonstrations and protests may be extremely danagainst the mainstream current of thought. Entire gerous. After being ingrained in our screens for weeks Facebook groups have expressed strong antagonism on end, we are hopeful that social media will provide towards the eradication of certain statues, under the longevity to the BLM movement and future movename of “reinstate Edward Colston”. Moreover, certain ments alike. 50

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Photo: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 2020.

Holding the British Government accountable to the climate crisis promises after COVID-19 written by Masha Trosheva

hile the world has been dealing with the more immediate issue of the coronavirus pandemic, the global climate emergency continues to pose a threat to the environment we live in. Just last summer, Cambridge reached the highest temperature recorded in the UK at 38.7°C. This is more than a degree higher than the 1990 record set in Cheltenham of 37.1°C. The summer of 2020 has also seen extreme weather patterns. As we continue to see the catastrophic effects of climate change on the planet, the changes seen in lockdown have presented the possibility of keeping road and industry pollution lower than seen in previous years. During the peak of the pandemic and the early stages of lockdown in the spring, global carbon dioxide emissions dropped significantly. Compared with the average levels in 2019, this period presented a 17% decrease in CO2 emissions. A decrease in transport use accounted for approximately half of this. These figures appear promising and if maintained would pose a considerably smaller impact on the climate. However, this is not a proactive solution to tackling climate change and does not reverse any of the previous damage done. As people return to workspaces and children return to schools in September, carbon dioxide emissions are likely to soar once again to 2019 levels. Transport emissions may increase to even higher rates than those seen before the pandemic, as people see public transport as a risk from the virus and opt for private alterna-

tives, such as cars, minimising contact with strangers. As well as this, the shutting down of manufacturing plants across the globe at the peak of the pandemic helped facilitate the decrease in carbon dioxide emissions, but this trend will not last long as production recommences and attempts to make up for lost time and profit. For deep routed change to occur, many climate activists believe that there must be governmental policy changes and direct action to make considerable progress. The UK government has made several promises to do so over the years and in May of 2019 it declared a state of climate emergency. By doing so it finally recognised the devastating effects that global warming has created and acknowledged the lack of action previously taken to fight this pressing issue. The government also committed to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 in order to keep on track with the 2016 Paris Agreement, which set to keep global warming below the 2°C threshold, compared to 1990 levels. But, will the coronavirus crisis distract the government from fulfilling these promises? The Committee on Climate Change urges the government to tackle the economic and climate crises simultaneously by creating jobs in environmental sectors such as tree planting, peatland restoration and green infrastructure. This would provide a long-term solution, as well as improving residents’ quality of life. Creating a circular economy with improved recycling infrastruc-

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Photo: Students striking for Climate Change in Oxford, Cherwell, 2019.

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ture would also create more jobs and help us reach the net-zero carbon goal while reducing cost spent on sourcing raw materials. Close to 750,000 jobs have been lost in the UK due to industry shutting down since March. However, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), roughly nine million jobs a year can be saved globally in sectors such as the construction of energy-efficient buildings and low-carbon transport infrastructure. Octopus Energy, for example, supplies electricity to homes and businesses sourced from 100% renewable energy and supports the Brighton-based charity, Renewable World. Many other companies in both public and private sectors are expanding in this field. To do this effectively, funding innovation and research projects will be fundamental. An estimated extra £14bn is needed each year to help the UK meet its climate commitments, according to the UK charity Green Alliance. And yet, when we look at the 2020/21 national budget plan, this is not accounted for. What is accounted for is a sum of £28bn to be spent on roads across the UK. Not only will this directly contribute to higher carbon dioxide levels in the form of building these roads, but it will also indirectly cause more pollution by incentivising the use of private transport.

It appears that government regulations are not reliable enough to produce a significant impact in solving the climate crisis. More than two years after the start of school strikes and the iconic ‘Fridays for Future’ started by Greta Thunberg, no real actions have been taken at a government level in either the UK or Europe, which together have contributed to 22% of all global carbon emissions as of 2020. In the UK, municipal governments, such as the City of London, have taken the situation into their own hands and have come up with many strategies to deal with climate change at a more local level. In 2018, Mayor of London Sadiq Khan developed a comprehensive plan which aimed to transform half of London public spaces into green zones and ensure that London buses are carbon-free by 2037. However, these plans are dependent on wider economic and political support. Only by exerting constant pressure on the UK government on a wider societal level will it be possible to achieve the targets set by the government to tackle the climate crisis. The Covid-19 crisis offers new possibilities to do this, by allowing policymakers and citizens to envision economic and political reforms that take into account the impact humans have on the environment. Here is to hoping that this vast health-crisis will inspire vast reforms to tackle climate change.

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

Climate Change before and after covid?

Travel in the UK has dropped by 73% during lockdown in March, the lowest since 1955.

Youth unemployment for U30s has tripled to 18%. Which is, the highest level since the Mid-80s. Young People and over 65s are the worst affected by unemployment.

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Co2 Pollution has dropped 1/3 to almost half in the UK because of lockdown. Since 2010 the UK has dangerous high levels of No2 according to the WHO.

Estimated 14 billion pounds are needed each year to help the UK meet its climate pledges. However, in 2020 these were not even included in the budget.

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edited by Manfredi Pozzoli

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

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Three Versions of Populism written by Manfredi Pozzoli

Photo: Giuseppe Conte talking about T. May, Alessia Pierdomenico, Bloomberg, Getty Images, 2020.

n 2018, during his speech at Oxford Union, Steve Bannon – Donald Trump’s former Chief Strategist – described Italy as a crucial ‘testing ground’ for modern-day populism. At the time, a new government, formed by the right-wing League and the independent 5 Star Movement (M5S), had just been installed in Rome. According to Bannon, the outcome of this ‘experiment’ would demonstrate the strength of the ‘populist project’ in the West. What he could certainly not have predicted, however, was that two years after his speech, Italy’s leading populist would not be a charismatic and imposing politician, but a previously unknown lawyer from a small town in the south of Italy. Giuseppe Conte, who was first nominated prime minister in 2018, has recently emerged as Italy’s most popular leader. Now the head of another executive supported by M5S and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), Conte has quickly amassed a strong electoral base. At the same time, his unexpected success has coincided with the decline of Matteo Salvini, previously the most prominent politician in Italy. Salvini does not only have to worry about Conte: Giorgia Meloni, leader of the far-right Fratelli d’Italia (FDI), has been quickly gaining ground in the polls. Conte, Salvini and Meloni embody three different versions of populism, each having unique characteristics. Studying them is not only crucial when understanding Italy’s political system, but also provides a glimpse to the potential future of populism in post-Covid Europe. In February 2019, during an EU Parliament meeting, former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt openly called Conte a ‘puppet’ of Salvini and Luigi Di Maio, M5S’s former leader. Despite the bluntness of his statement, many Italians quietly agreed with Verhofstadt’s assessment. Indeed, four months prior, Conte’s nomination as the leader of the newly formed League-M5S coalition had surprised many. A complete outsider with seemingly no political power, in the weeks following his appointment, observers described Conte as a ‘compromise’ leader – whose role within the government would be to ease tensions between the two parties. For most of his first term this portrayal appeared accurate: Conte maintained a low profile as Salvini and Di Maio’s parties competed to carry out their respective campaign promises. However, this trend drastically changed in the summer of 2019. After Salvini caused the government to collapse in a failed attempt to call for snap elections, Conte found himself at the head of a new exec-

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Europe utive which, this time, paired the weakened M5S with considered to be personalistic. Indeed, while many the centre-left Democratic Party. leaders often build their careers on their personalities, In theory, these developments could have ended Con- most of them are supported by a political platform, te’s political career. On one side, Italy’s right-wing elec- such as a party or movement. Conte, however, remains torate would now see him as a traitor, while the left completely unaffiliated to any party. In doing so, he has would remain sceptical due to his former support for constructed a more institutional and less partisan imSalvini’s nationalistic policies. Indeed, for the first weeks age of himself in the eyes of the electorate, seemingly of its life, the new PD-M5S government appeared pre- a leader above the arena of party politics. Combined carious, as the two parties ran into difficulties while with his status as an outsider, these characteristics have planning the 2020 budget. However, these predic- granted Conte a unique aura of honesty and authority. tions were eventually proven wrong. In the following Furthermore, to compensate for his lack of a supportmonths, Conte’s approval rating began to slowly in- ing platform, the prime minister has taken advantage crease. By October, he was considered the most pop- of institutional channels – such as state television – to ular leader in the country. As done previously, Conte directly communicate with the electorate and promote avoided open confrontation and mostly ignored at- his image. tacks from the opposition. However, he also gradually began to occupy a more visible and assertive position However, despite its advantages, Conte’s personalistic as leader of the executive. In type of populism is flawed, in that it is doing so, he benefited from the highly fragile. First, since his popularity weaknesses of both M5S, which “Conte’s personalis- is only based on his persona, every mihad been steadily losing support scandal or controversy could easily tic type of populism nor since 2018 and PD, which, under cause a large loss of support. In addiis flawed, in that it its leader, Nicola Zingaretti, was tion to this, because Conte has a limitis highly fragile” struggling to recover the trust of ed media presence, he has few avenues its voters. to respond to adverse propaganda. Finally, it is also possible that the prime The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic further ac- minister could again find himself the victim of conflicts celerated Conte’s rise. As Italy became the hardest-hit involving the two parties that support his government. country in the world, the prime minister emerged as While, at the time of writing this article, Conte’s approvthe country’s most trusted leader. In March, Conte im- al rating is at an all-time high, the presence of these vulposed – for the first time since the outbreak – a strict nerabilities makes it virtually impossible to say whether country-wide lockdown to halt the spread of the virus, his popularity will endure the test of time. which only began to be lifted in late May. During the weeks of quarantine, as most Italians remained confined The rise of the newcomer Conte also coincided with the at home, the prime minister began occupying a strong decline of the politician who, since 2018, has occupied tangible presence in the lives of millions of citizens. He the top of the Italian political landscape: Matteo Salvini. achieved this by regularly making televised appearanc- Salvini, who started his political career in the 90s with es to directly reassure the population. Gradually, Conte the Lega Nord – an independentist party in northern became – along with Pope Francis and President Sergio Italy – has recently become the most successful rightMattarella – one of the figures most associated with the wing populist in western Europe. Indeed, after becomwidely popularized slogan ‘andrà tutto bene’, translat- ing the Lega Nord’s secretary in 2013, he managed to ing to, ‘everything will be alright’. This wave of support transform it into the ‘League’, the most dominant pohas persisted even after the end of most restrictions. In litical force in the country. To do so, he employed a July, a poll conducted by the research institute Demos type of populism that heavily derived from Berlusconi found Conte’s approval rating to be the highest of all and M5S, but also foreigners like Nigel Farage, Donald Italian prime ministers since 1994, beating even Berlus- Trump and Marine Le Pen. In particular, Salvini emphaconi’s by five points. While these polls partly depend on sised the corruption of Italy’s elite while attacking the a ‘rally-round-the-flag’ effect caused by the pandemic, immigration policies promoted by PD. While his mesit is undeniable that Conte’s charismatic style of leader- sage was primarily identitarian, Salvini also echoed ship has had a massive impact on Italian politics. Trump’s rhetoric on economics, by often describing the His brand of populism has many innovative elements, left as being pro-big-government and quasi-commuwhich give it a series of advantages. Firstly, it can be nistic. In this sense, Salvini’s populism closely reflects 56

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the ‘weak-centred ideology’ framework described by political scientist Cas Mudde: rather than a clear message, Salvini adds a right-wing tone to the people-versus-elite narrative typical of most populists. Salvini also was the first Italian leader to take full advantage of the political potential of social media. Since 2014, the League has employed a sophisticated propaganda apparatus, nicknamed ‘the Beast’, to occupy and control the media space. This strategy has worked: by creating a constant stream of highly engaging content on Facebook and other social media platforms, Salvini has managed to shape the discourse around certain issues such as migration control and tax policy. The combination of the appeal of his message and the strength of his social media platforms allowed Salvini to win 34% of the votes in the 2018 European elections, more than any other party.

during the seventies and early eighties. The League’s gradual decline has especially benefited Giorgia Meloni’s party, FDI. Although its rhetoric is similar to the League’s, Fratelli d’Italia employs a much more ideological form of populism. In particular, FDI portrays itself as a sort of spiritual successor to the Movimento Sociale Italiano (MSI), a neo-fascist party that was formed in the aftermath of WWII. Indeed, the party has ‘inherited’ some of MSI’s slogans, as well as its symbol – the ‘Tricolour Flame’. In addition to this, many of FDI’s current representatives started their careers in the MSI itself or in its youth-wing. This commitment to emphasising the party’s historical and ideological background has allowed Meloni to maintain a much more coherent position despite the disruption created by the pandemic. Moreover, FDI maintains a stable presence across the country, and is therefore not hampered by the same limitations that However, after Salvini’s failed gamble the League has inherited from its in the summer of 2019, the League’s past as an exclusively ‘northern’ par“The League has appeal seemed to deteriorate, a ty. All these factors have given FDI employed a sophis- an advantage over its right-wing trend which became increasingly ticated propaganda ally. Indeed, in July, an Analisi Politvisible during the quarantine periapparatus” od. This decline coincided with the ica study found that Meloni’s gains rise of another right-wing party, Giin the polls mostly consist of voters orgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia, which who have left the League. Although has recently doubled its electoral base, reaching 14% of not yet decisive, the constant and substantial nature of the national consensus, according to some polls. While this process means that going forward, FDI could serithis shift is not yet catastrophic– the League is still Ita- ously threaten the League’s leading position. Considerly’s most popular party with 26% of the preferences – ing its steady growth and resilience in the polls, Melits persistence signals an important realignment within oni’s ideological style of populism appears to be the the country’s right-wing landscape. one with the highest chances of continuing to succeed even after the most critical part of the crisis subsides. In a sense, the pandemic uncovered the limits of Salvini’s style of populism. On one hand, this was because Although the successes of Conte’s institutional and it ‘paralysed’ the League’s PR apparatus: as the country personalistic version of populism, and Meloni’s ideogrew increasingly worried about Covid-19, issues such logical one, are not entirely the results of the Covid-19 as migration and identitarianism – the League’s main pandemic, it is undeniable that they are symptomatic focuses – faded to the background. Having to face of a broader shift that is contributing to change the na‘new’ issues, the League failed to maintain a clear nar- ture of populism in Italy and other western countries. rative, often switching its positions on matters such as In general, the pandemic has created a climate of great the enforcement of lockdown rules and the adoption insecurity, which continues to strongly affect citizens’ of measures for economic recovery. On the other, the everyday lives. Even after the end of the initial lockparty also suffered because of its lack of a clear ideo- downs, the lingering social, economic and psychologilogical core. Having remained an independentist party cal damages caused by Covid-19 will continue to foster for most of its existence, the League lacks the ‘identity’ an atmosphere of anxiety in most nations. Confronted of other right-wing parties. Salvini has tried – mostly with these new uncertainties, electorates appear to be unsuccessfully – to resolve this ideological deficiency. turning towards those politicians who offer a reassurFor instance, despite having often declared his anti-so- ing, charismatic persona or a clear set of beliefs, and cialist positions, he recently tried to associate his image away from those who simply offer the standard ‘us-verand values on labour to that of Enrico Berlinguer, the sus-them’ rhetoric that has made populists successful popular secretary of the Italian Communist Party (PCI) in recent years. Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 57

Europe

EU Budget and Recovery Fund Summit: Clashes over ‘Different Conceptions of Europe’ written by Jaromir Chroustovsky

n 21st July 2020, after five days of intense talks, European Union leaders agreed on a new longterm budget and a post-pandemic recovery effort. To fund the so-called Next Generation EU (NGEU), the EU will jointly borrow hundreds of billions of euros. A few years ago, such a thing would have been unimaginable. Germany and Britain would never have allowed any form of common European debt. But despite Britain’s secession from the Union and Germany’s complete volte-face on this issue, the negotiations were far from smooth. President Macron and Chancellor Merkel, the main sponsors of the NGEU, were met with steady opposition from the so-called ‘Frugal Four’ (Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark). What does the NGEU fund mean for the EU? Will the Frugal Four now take on the role previously played by Britain? Or do they represent a completely different form of dissent within the Franco-German-dominated EU? The NGEU, which was negotiated alongside the multiannual financial framework (€1074.3bn), will be an expensive enterprise. According to what was agreed in Brussels, the European Commission will be vested with the power to raise €750bn on the financial markets. The money acquired will then be distributed to the member states, using the economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic as the main allocation key. All financial liabilities resulting from the NGEU are to be repaid by the end of 2058. Neither legally nor historically has this been common practice in the Union. The leaders have decided to state in writing that the NGEU will be an extraordinary, one-off effort, specifically aimed at helping EU economies to recover from the consequences of Covid-19. In the words of President Macron, the NGEU fund is ‘a historic change of our Europe and eurozone.’ Whether one considers this to be true, or even a sensible way out, the current fund is up for debate.

Those who share the French President’s vision of a more integrated EU have praised the deal as Europe’s ‘Hamiltonian moment’, invoking the American statesman’s ingenious decision to pool the state debts incurred by the individual colonies during the American Revolutionary War. By mutualising debt, to use the July summit’s buzzword, Hamilton had achieved two important things. Firstly, he had created a stronger and safer debt-market, allowing the United States to issue bonds more easily and fund the growth of its economy. More importantly, by making the colonies share the fiscal burden of the war, he had ordained a common national destiny for the United States. The Funding Act of 1790 was like a rivet joint which held the rudimentary structure of, what is now the strongest nation on earth, firmly together. But will the recovery fund have the same effect on the EU? Indeed, the NGEU is a landmark moment in the EU’s history. Never before had the Union jointly borrowed on such a scale. Moreover, €390bn from the fund will be distributed as grants, not loans, a move which has been seen by some as the foetus of a legitimate budget and fiscal transfers in the eurozone. However, if one looks closely at the NGEU, it is impossible to claim any such thing. As the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has vehemently insisted, the fund is not a permanent fiscal policy instrument. It is clearly intended for the recovery from the pandemic. Secondly, it does not pool annual national debts of the eurozone members in any conceivable way. And thirdly, although the NGEU introduces new, pan-EU taxes, these will be used for the repayment of the debt, not for fiscal transfers. Despite many efforts to make it look more momentous than it actually is, the NGEU will not be Europe’s ‘Hamiltonian moment’ after all. However, since it is debt mutualisation of a sort, it could potentially lead to a fullblown debt union in the future.

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Photo: EU leaders agreed on a €750bn package aimed at funding post-pandemic relief efforts across the bloc., John Thys, Pool, AFP, Getty Images, 2020.

The fact that the United Kingdom was no longer present at the summit table spared the Macron-Merkel tandem, the main sponsors of the NGEU proposal, much trouble. Reflecting on the 2013 budget summit, where David Cameron pushed through substantial cuts, it is hard to imagine that any British prime minister (and certainly not a Conservative) would have supported a common EU debt of the NGEU fund’s proportions. Of course, the British were not there in Brussels to argue for fiscal restraint. However, the main reason why the EU ended up with the NGEU debt is not Britain’s exit from the Union, but Germany’s silent yet still extremely important change of position on the question of common EU debt. In 2012, Chancellor Merkel, as well as the rest of the German financial elite, categorically ruled out common Eurobonds. The fact remains that the NGEU does not introduce these or involve any mutualisation of individual national debts of the EU member states. But, as Matthew Karnitschnig has convincingly argued, in case crucial German economic partners like Italy or Spain were not able to repay their NGEU liabilities, it is unlikely that Chancellor Merkel (or her successor) would let

the Commission fail to honour its obligations. In other words, the EU now has common debt for which the richer and fiscally healthier countries are more responsible than those with chronically weak public finances. Apart from its economic interests in Southern Europe, there is one more thing that explains Germany’s dramatic change of position on common EU liabilities. There is a feeling among the political elite in Berlin that the EU did not do enough to mitigate the harsh effects of the last financial crisis. The reasoning behind the NGEU is that if countries like Italy or Spain were left to deal with the crisis alone, it could lead to the unravelling of the whole European project. Hence, the joint Macron-Merkel recovery fund proposal from May 18th, in its very urgent tone, reassures the Union that France and Germany recognise their ‘responsibility for the EU’ and ‘will help pave the way out of the crisis.’ Among other things, the 18th May Initiative, which was the first meaningful and concrete proposal for a recovery fund, suggested that the European Commission borrow €500bn which would be distributed as benefits to the ‘most affected sectors and regions’ of the EU. Although there had been earlier signs of such a fund coming into existence, the fact that it was sponsored

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by Chancellor Merkel came as an unwelcome surprise to those who would in reality, along with Germany, become the main guarantors of the fund. Five days after the publication of the Initiative, the leaders of Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark issued a counterproposal. They rejected the idea of new benefits altogether and called for a ‘loans for loans’ approach to the recovery fund. According to their plan, the Commission would have raised the money on the financial markets, but instead of distributing grants, it would have provided the member states with low-interest loans. Such an approach, the four prime ministers claimed, would have avoided the danger of debt mutualisation.

Macron said, the summit was ‘marked by … different conceptions of Europe’. Germany, propelled by the fear of EU disintegration and its own economic interests, seems to have come round to Macron’s vision of a deeply integrated Union. So, what is the alternative?

One of the most vocal and constructive advocates for change in the EU nowadays is the Chancellor of Austria. Sebastian Kurz, who has effectively assumed the leading role among the Frugal Four, is hardly a Eurosceptic. He has supported the European project throughout his career in high politics. But instead of what some would call Macron’s institutional expansionism (for instance, one thinks of his calls for an EU army, for a eurozone budget and minimum wage), Kurz suggests to focus on less bombastic yet more practiIt is hardly surprising that, withcal projects: stronger collective rules “the EU did not do out the backing of either Germany regarding fiscal policy and sanctions or France, the Frugal Four did not on those member states that incur enough to mitigate succeed entirely. What is more, the excessive debt, ending ‘the EU Parthe harsh effects of NGEU had swollen to €750bn. After liament’s wandering circus’, de-bufive days of heated talks, they manreaucratisation, the rule of law or the last financial aged to achieve an impressive reresponsible green and digital transisult. In the end, the recovery fund tions. Moreover, by teaming up with crisis” will consist of €390bn in grants and the rest of the Frugal Four to prevent €360bn in loans, which means that a full-blown debt union or with the the originally proposed portion of benefits had been Visegrád Group to take a tough stance on illegal immibrought down by an entire €110bn. gration, he has demonstrated an extraordinary diplomatic talent allowing him to deliver his goals. After the conclusion of the summit on 21st July, Chancellor Merkel implied that the Frugal Four had effec- The EU budget and recovery fund summit have shown tively taken on the part previously played by Britain. us that, despite Britain’s exit, the Union is far from However, important differences between the ad hoc monolithic. The question of common EU debt is likely pressure group and the UK remain. Despite their hawk- to be one of the most important battlegrounds of the ish views on matters of fiscal policy, the Frugal Four post-Covid EU. The NGEU recovery fund is claimed to be support the EU as a political project. To a large extent, a one-off, yet it is now hard to predict where it may lead the UK had never really felt comfortable with either the the Union in the future. Nonetheless, we can say with economic or the political aspects of European integra- confidence that any effort to make the shared “Covid tion. In contrast to Britain, the Frugal Four cherish not debt” the cornerstone of a full-blown debt union would only the single market and the customs union but also be against the interests of the Frugal Four. Therefore, as the so-called ‘European values’, meaning the very idea long as these countries have strong advocates like Seof the EU having a philosophical and political identity. bastian Kurz and remain faithful to fiscal responsibility, it is possible that a purposeful, rules-based and modNonetheless, supporting the political aspect of Euro- ern Union - in place of an overstretched, ineffective and pean integration does not imply supporting the now over-indebted federation - may still be the EU’s bright dominant Franco-German narrative of it. As President future.

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Europe

COVID-19 AMID A NUMBER OF EUROPEAN ELECTIONS written by Sara Dozai

he Covid-19 pandemic has taken the world by storm, putting countries into an unprecedented state of complete lockdown. Amidst all the chaos the coronavirus pandemic has caused, elections still had to take place, and as one might imagine, they were heavily impacted both in terms of public opinion and logistics of the organisation by the virus. However, this is not where the difficulties with the elections end. Some countries experience an after-storm of massive protests. When it comes to municipal elections in France, run-off elections were held as the first round was not decisive. The main focus was on President Macron’s La République en Marche party and the race for mayor of Paris. After a three-month delay, elections were held under strict health and safety measures. The results of the second round showed that France’s Green party, as well as other left-wing parties, have made significant progress in it. On the other hand, Macron’s centrist LREM party has seen less support at a local level than at a national level, as they have failed to secure the administration of any major city. The Green Party won in Marseille, Strasbourg, Bordeaux and Lyon, whilst in Paris, incumbent Hidalgo, of the Socialist Party, returned as mayor. The first round had an abstention rate of 54.5%, the highest recorded for municipal elections since 1958. Unfortunately, the second round recorded an even worse abstention rate of 60%. While the results may not be truly reflective as the majority of the population didn’t vote, it confirms two points, those being that the French voters see the environment as a priority, and the fear surrounding Covid-19 has made people stay at home. Nevertheless, people’s loyalty towards political figures that better handled the pandemic can also be observed. One such person is Prime Minister Èdouard Philippe, whose popularity has soared due to his handling of the Covid-19 crisis, handing him the election

as the mayor of Le Havre. Finally, it should be observed that the results pressured President Macron to reshuffle the government, including the key roles of interior minister and Attorney General. The Polish presidential elections, at first scheduled to take place on May 20th, were held on June 28th and July 12th. As in France, masks were obligatory on election sites. Poland’s incumbent President Duda beat his opponent Trzaskowski by a narrow margin. Mr Duda obtained 51.2% of votes, which is Poland’s slimmest presidential election victory since the end of communism in 1989. The turnout was reportedly 68.2%. From this, it can be concluded that the Covid-19 pandemic was not a huge factor in people’s willingness to vote and their decision on who to vote for. It was rather the insurmountable division in opinions of the Polish public. When analysing the results, it is clear that the public in Poland is heavily divided. Experts have argued before the election that this is a vote between two different visions of Poland. One of the main division points between the two candidates was their stance on LGBTQ+ rights, with Trzaskowski supporting civil unions for same-sex couples, and Duda promising to protect the institution of family from “LGBT ideology“. Furthermore, Duda promoted his anti-abortionist views, which Trzaskowski strongly opposed. The Polityka weekly referred to these opposing views as “Young against old, cities against countryside”. The results of the elections were seen with concern by foreign media: for example, the German Sueddeutsche Zeitung stated that Trzaszkowski is “a hero, even without a victory”. The EU also expressed its concerns about the stances of the Polish government regarding LGBTQ+ people and the completion of the overhaul of the judiciary, believed to be undermining the rule of law. The high level of division amongst Polish society meant that protests sparked against the police brutality targeted

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Europe at LGBTQ+ people and their lack of rights. The size of the protests prompted Western media to name them the ‘Polish Stonewall’, referencing the protests and riots that occurred in New York in 1969 with the goal of gay liberation. With a country that is so divided in opinion, more protests could potentially arise.

masks, while voters were advised to wear masks and gloves. This is unlike the measures enforced in France, Poland and Croatia where most measures were not merely advice, but rather rules that had to be followed. Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) had a night of major wins as their coalition won 60.61%. There are only two other parties in Parliament, and these are the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) which won 10.9% and Serbian Patriotic Alliance (SPAS) with a win of 4.2%. Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić proclaimed that the people of Serbia showed their trust to him and his party in these elections. The reported abstention rate was 49.8%, the highest in the last three decades. However, critics questioned this as they point out that seeing the boycott from the opposition, it is more likely that the true figure is even higher than this. A high percentage of the opposition, forming part of Alliance for Serbia, boycotted the elections as they deemed them unfair. Because there is doubt about the abstention rate and people distrust the government, the current government is entering into a crisis of legitimacy according to the president of in which Alliance for Serbia Đilas.

The Croatian parliamentary elections took place on July 5th, 2020. There was much controversy surrounding the elections due to measures regarding Covid-19, as the Constitutional Court determined that keeping people from voting due to the disease would be unconstitutional. Instead of this, people infected with the virus would vote through an intermediary from their home. Other voters who would go to the election locations would have to respect social distancing and sanitary measures. Wearing a mask was not prescribed, but only recommended. The results of the elections were quite surprising, seeing as the polls were predicting a more even result between Croatia’s two largest parties; the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the Social Democratic Party of “the way Croatia. HDZ was the big winner of the election night with 66 manelections are held dates. RK on the other hand only According to the international covneeds to change.” obtained 41 mandates. The abstenerage of the story, Vučić ensured his tion rate (53.1%) was larger than in win by controlling the media. The 2016, which is no surprise considelections are said in fact to have had ering the situation and the fear surrounding Covid-19. many irregularities, such as putting the voting papers Nevertheless, this suggests that some sort of change into wrong boxes, taking pictures of the voting papers is needed, perhaps in the way elections are conduct- and voting with voting papers filled out before entered. Another conclusion one can reach when looking ing the election site, as reported by Serbian citizens The at the results is that the polls were not very accurate, protests that ensued are perhaps the most well-known with HDZ obtaining a victory much larger than expect- post-election story in times of Covid-19. While the state ed. The reasons are most likely twofold. Primarily, it was media tried to portray the protests as being organised due to their success in handling the first outbreak of against stronger lockdown measures, this was not the Covid-19 in the country. The health minister Beroš is a case. The protest began due to the results of the elecfavourite of the Croatian public due to his honesty, and tion and the way in which they were conducted. The steadiness in approaching the issues and the public. protest is known as ‘Enough is enough (Dosta je bilo)’ Secondly, HDZ under the leadership of Plenković likely and their leader Radulović said that the goal is not a appealed to a younger demographic as they are mov- forceful overthrow of the government, but rather the ing towards a more moderate position. All in all, there dissolution of the results of the last elections and the are multiple reasons for such a victory, but the main holding of new elections. However, as of the time of one is surely the success in handling the first Covid-19 writing this article, their goals have not been achieved outbreak in Croatia. as it seems that there will be no new elections. The Serbian parliamentary elections were held on June 21st, 2020. In terms of measures taken to ensure health and safety, members of the voting boards had to wear

All countries have taken valid measures to ensure health and safety on the locations of the elections. Nevertheless, in many countries, the abstention rates have

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

been larger than any recorded in the past half-century due to fear of infection. This could indicate that the way in which elections are held needs to change. As everything is moving towards a digitalised format, should elections follow in the same steps? And if so, how would one logistically make this happen? In addition to this, it can be observed that protests have ensued in both Poland and Serbia as a response to the results of the elections, either for the protection of rights of

Europe LGBTQ+ people over corruption claims and authoritarianism. Finally, in examining the elections in these four countries, it can be concluded that people appreciate governments who did their best and managed to handle the Covid-19 crisis to the best of their abilities. The public has, due to constant fear-mongering and misleading information, grown to like and appreciate honesty and openness about issues even more than ever before.

Photo: LGTBQ Protests, Zródło: Piotr Molecki/ East News, 2020.

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Africa

edited by Megan Clementson Cox

Dialogue • Autumn 2020

Africa

Covid-19 and The New Scramble for Africa:

How the global Coronavirus crisis has become the latest stage in the battle Between China and the United States for Influence in Africa Photo: U.S. first lady Melania Trump interacts with children in Accra, Ghana, Carlo Allegri. Reuters, 2018.

written by Ayanda Tambo

hina’s rise to international significance came about as the result of exponential economic and geopolitical growth in the 1980s, aided by the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. These shifts in the global balance of power led China to engage in a Cold War-Esque rivalry with the US. In the twenty-first century, the US and the PRC have firmly held their positions as the most powerful nations on the global geopolitical, economic and military stages. To understand the centrality of Africa to the rivalry between the US and China, and conversely, the impact of foreign influence on the continent, it is vital to comprehend the history this is grounded in. From the fifteenth to the twentieth century, African history was dominated by the events and effects of European colonialism and native African resistance. Between the 1880s and the beginning of the First World War, European powers negotiated the territorial division of the continent amongst themselves. This period is widely known as the “Scramble for Africa”. The natural resources and power this domination granted them fueled much of Europe’s economic growth in the twentieth century; the impact of which those in the West continue to benefit from today. As European colonial power was diminished in the twentieth century, dozens of independent nations arose from the ruins of European dominance. Direct imperial control disappeared, and subsequently, a new type of relationship between African nations and the West emerged. This was defined as “neo-colonialism” by former Ghanaian president Kwame Nkrumah. The neo-colonial state, Nkrumah argued, despite presenting the “outward trappings of international sovereignty”, continued to be under externally directed economic, monetary, and political control within the form of loans and debt, imposed currencies, and aid policies which create structures of dependency. Africa has thus remained at the centre of international bids for influence and hegemony.

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Africa In the twenty-first century, European nations are no same tactic against one another. Pompeo claimed that longer the only source of foreign influence in Africa. most US foreign assistance is grant-based rather than China, in particular, has been the dominant player in loan-based, intending to promote “transparent, private what can be considered to be a ‘new scramble’ for pow- sector-led economic growth that benefits all parties” in er on the continent. The People’s Republic has rushed to contrast to the manipulative dependency dynamics he strengthen diplomatic and economic ties in an attempt accuses China of fostering. to gain material benefits domestically, and supersede the influence of the U.S, their biggest geopolitical rival. In this way, Covid-19 has become the latest battleChina’s most visible project in Africa has been the Belt ground in this fight for international predominance. and Road Initiative (BRI), a trillion-dollar global infra- It is a battle, as the ongoing struggle to strengthen structure project designed to strengthen Chinese trade economic ties, that the US appears to be losing. The within Asia, Europe and Africa. Forty out of fifty-five Trump administration has proclaimed itself to be “AfAfrican states have signed agreements with the Chi- rica’s most committed partner in promoting transparnese government to become part of the Belt and Road ency and combating the scourge of infectious disease”, economic corridor, welcoming Chinese financial aid whilst attempting to further discredit China by calling and construction of infrastructures, such as new roads, Covid-19 the “China Virus”, and even “Kung-Flu”. Despite railways and airports. East Afthese efforts to disparage China’s rica was the initial focus, with position, Chinese influence and “Such a statement aprailway and road projects bethe reach of the BRI remains. While ing the most high-profile elCovid-19 may have strengthened pears to accuse China of ements of BRI action. The BRI political competition and fueled has overseen the construction rising Sinophobia, the pandemic economic of a railway between Ethiopia has not eroded Beijing’s relationneo-colonialism” and Djibouti, internal railways ship with African governments and within Kenya, and the creruling elites. African governments ation of the Kampala-Entebbe have eagerly accepted aid from the Expressway, Uganda’s first-ever toll road. Moreover, Chi- Chinese government and private sector donors. The na has eclipsed the previous dominance of the US and Alibaba Foundation, the Jack Ma Foundation, and Jack EU as it has become Africa’s biggest trading partners; Ma himself have put a huge emphasis on public health in 2017 Sino-African trade was valued at a whopping assistance in Africa during the Covid-19 crisis. In April, $148 billion, compared to the US which was valued at the Africa CDC received its third donation of medical only $39 billion. equipment and supplies from the Jack Ma and Alibaba foundations including 4.6 million masks, 500,000 The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has pushed to dis- swabs and test kits, 200,000 face shields and more. pel the idea that their involvement in Africa is a neo-co- Alibaba Group is the world’s twelfth most significant lonialist project by framing their economic relationship contributor to coronavirus relief efforts, having donatas a counter to Western neo-colonialism and a source of ed $144,200,0000 worldwide. The Alibaba founder has native empowerment in Africa. China Daily, a state-con- been a CCP member since the 1980s, and some think trolled newspaper, described the BRI as an “emancipat- the Party’s influence on his actions may be more extening” initiative that spurs “economic pan-Africanism” and sive than is widely admitted. Whether directly involved strengthens “bonds of solidarity between all indigenous in Ma and Alibaba’s philanthropic decisions or not, the and diaspora ethnic groups of African descent”. The US Chinese government has certainly seized the opporgovernment, however, has made no secret of its strong tunity to make Ma a symbol of positive Chinese fordisagreement with this characterisation. Mike Pompeo, eign involvement, giving legitimacy to China’s claims the US Secretary of State, warned that “countries should of partnership with African countries. These efforts by be wary of authoritarian regimes with empty promis- governmental and private sector donors place China at es”, warning that Chinese lending to Africa creates an the forefront of the international response to the pan“unsustainable debt burden”. Such a statement ap- demic, suggesting that Pompeo’s dismissal of China as pears to accuse China of economic neo-colonialism, full of “empty promises” towards Africa, is more political highlighting how the US and China have employed the rhetoric than truth. 66

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In this context, the assertion that the US is Africa’s greatest partner in combating Covid-19 certainly lacks credibility. The US continues to struggle to control and combat Covid-19 within its borders, and simply cannot donate millions of items of PPE abroad. American warnings about how China is an example of the perils of the single-party rule are not at all strengthened by the fact that it is China, and not America, that has largely succeeded in curbing the spread of the virus. Indeed, as African countries try to fight Covid-19 and recover from the public health and economic crisis, it would not be surprising to see China’s influence, investment,

Africa and aid links with the continent strengthen. China has made itself indispensable to African nations through its ability to fill huge gaps in resources that the US is unable or unwilling to help provide. There are promises of debt cancellation for African countries struggling with Covid-19, prioritisation of supply to African states upon Chinese success in vaccine development, and provisions of medical teams and aid which is desperately needed. The debate over whether Chinese involvement in Africa amounts to neo-colonialism looks likely to remain an intellectual one and unlikely to push African leaders away from growing ties with China.

Covid-19 and the learning gap: The challenges Africa’s Universities are facing due to the global pandemic. written by Rosie McCann The common global response to the Coronavirus pandemic has been to close schools and universities in order to prevent rising infection rates on campus. This represents a unique challenge for the Higher Education sector as it renders traditional in-person teaching impossible, and remote learning necessary. The way African universities approach the challenges posed by remote teaching will have a lifelong and potentially irreversible impact on education across the continent. If handled poorly, inequalities within education will deepen, making social mobility even more inaccessible. Alternatively, a strong online learning programme could overhaul traditional models of education and allow more young people to enrol at university. An effective response could therefore alleviate pre-existing problems within the sector and prevent the pandemic from further entrenching inequality within education. The Western response to Covid-19 has embraced technology, with the delivery of lectures and seminars taking place over virtual platforms. Paired with Ebooks, online journals and email correspondence from professors, institutions have attempted to replicate the traditional classroom experience from home. Yet, in Africa,

there are more limitations to this style of online learning. In March 2020, internet accessibility across the continent stood at merely 39% of the total population, compared to the rest of the world’s 63%. This, however, varies regionally. Most notably, in Sub-Saharan Africa where 6% of young people are enrolled in higher education courses, only 4% of students have the potential to access technology-based remote learning. Such low levels of connectivity and a lack of technological access means that attempts at online learning across Africa have been mostly ineffective and fragmented, leaving many students behind. For a continent that, generally speaking, has lower levels of education, these facts are extremely worrying. As it stands, nearly 60% of youth between the ages of 1517 are not in school, and thus the proportion of young people progressing to higher education is low. According to the World Bank, 87% of children in Sub-Saharan Africa are ‘learning poor’ and lack the skills necessary for both the twenty-first century and the ever-changing labour market. These statistics, when considered alongside the inaccessibility of remote learning, highlight the need for another solution. If Western-style on-

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Africa line learning was to be pursued across the African continent, it is evident that inequality in education would deepen. Furthermore, relying on online learning risks intensifying other educational inequities across gender lines and urban-rural divides. Somalia is one such country where the gap between technological access is divided as such, making it difficult to deliver e-learning alternatives. In rural areas, 40% of the population lacks sustained access to technology. Yet, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, only 1% of the population is unable to access the technology necessary for online learning. Women are also disproportionately affected by home-learning. Bearing more household labour than men, remote education is burdensome for many young women who are expected to maintain the home and look after younger siblings as well as study. Remote learning, therefore, proposes an immense challenge to many students, especially those who live in poverty or outside of urban areas. Such a complex issue demands a nuanced response that takes all of these factors into consideration. Following a Mawazo survey of 501 individuals affiliated with Higher Education, 83% of respondents reported experiencing disruption to their learning due to Covid-19, and only 39% stated they were enrolled in institutions that could support e-learning options - although it is not noted whether or not these students were in a position to access such materials. Simply attempting to replicate these traditional modes of teaching through online platforms might not be the answer in Africa.

of data caps alongside the creation of public internet hotspots and subsidies on internet charges will all help to make remote learning affordable and thus possible. Furthermore, creative solutions should be pursued, such as the possibility of universities partnering with technology firms to provide limitless data, as well as exploring strategies for the return to campus. Additionally, less focus should be placed on online learning given the disparities in internet access across the continent. In Senegal, one country where internet connectivity is low, distance learning is being held across radio and TV. Alternatively, in Sudan and Somalia where access to electricity is limited, printed resources are increasingly important. Sudan is in the process of creating self-guided materials through a newspaper aimed at students, and Somalia’s Higher Education institutions are providing printed materials and pre-recorded lessons. These cases highlight one thing in particular. Any institutional or governmental response to Covid-19 within the education sector should consider the broader context it is engaging in, appreciating the intersection between temporal and spatial variables. Internet access and reliable electricity should not be necessary for learning; especially when these factors are so dependent on one’s location or social background. Sudan and Somalia’s response to this educational crisis confirms that it is possible to adapt distanced learning to the needs of poorer and lesser connected students. As students across the world anticipate a very different academic year, it is worth considering how a global pandemic has presented a unique opportunity to transform conventional concepts and make higher education more accessible. Traditional modes of teaching are being disrupted, providing a chance to reassess educational methods, to ensure that institutions can support their students to the fullest extent. The replication of traditional teaching methods online will simply not suffice. Inevitably, the worldwide economy will feel the brunt of Covid-19, but education need not be impacted in the same way, and nor should Africa’s students.

So, what is the solution to Africa’s looming learning gap, and how can policy-makers and institutions alleviate education inequality? First and foremost, the maintenance of education budgets is necessary to ensure that students are supported to the fullest extent. This will ensure that universities can adapt to protect their student’s wellbeing whilst still prioritising their education. Adequate government funding of the higher education sector will facilitate accessibility. The lifting Photo: Brookings Institution, 2020. 68

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Locked-down or Locked Out: the plight of African domestic workers in the Middle East written by Megan Clementson Cox

Photo: Ethiopian Domestic worker at the Ethiopian Consulate in Beirut after being abandoned by her Lebanese employers during COVID, Hassan Ammar, AP, 2020.

‘Stay Home, Stay Safe’, or words to that effect, was the policy adopted by governments across the world in order to combat the spread of coronavirus. However, for many women, home is the last place they feel safe. This has been felt acutely by women who work in the domestic sphere. For many migrant domestic workers, imposed lockdowns have meant being trapped inside their employer’s homes. These are too often abusive environments, wherein workers who already suffered from poor conditions and low pay have experienced an even harsher erosion of any pre-existing independence and agency, or else been expelled from their houses and left with no money or shelter during a global pandemic. Lockdown has proved that governments can quickly and effectively enforce regulations to protect the public from threats to their health and safety. It is therefore inexcusable for the same governments not to ensure the safety of the migrant workers employed within their borders. Across Africa, employment in the domestic sphere is often the only way for women and girls to earn money, working abroad to send remittances back home. In the Arab states region, there are 3.16 million migrant domestic workers - the majority of whom come from Africa and Asia. According to the Independent Labour Organisation, over half of these workers are women and 75% of them are classified as ‘informal workers’. In

the Middle East, domestic workers are employed under the ‘Kafala system’ which requires migrants to have an in-country sponsor in order to acquire a visa and legal residence; this sponsor is nearly always their employer. This, alongside the informal nature of domestic work, means that wages, right to residence, healthcare and social security are not regulated by the state, but dependent on the benevolence of individual employers. Mustafa Qadi, director of the labour rights organisation Equidem, condemned the Kafala system, stating that “the way these countries have perfected this system of disposable labour lends itself to a high level of exploitation”. At the best of times, female domestic workers are highly vulnerable. At the worst, these women have been expelled, exploited, and abused, forced to work 18-hour days at minimal wages, and subjected to gender-based violence (GBV). Gender-based violence has been an ongoing issue for female domestic workers predating the pandemic. In 2008, migrant domestic workers in Lebanon were dying at a rate of one per week. Since the pandemic this figure is estimated to have doubled. Because of National lockdowns, employers and their families are no longer leaving the household to go to work or school, meaning workers are under their constant observation, greatly increasing the exposure to violence and abuse. Activist Vani Saraswathi explained, “you have this per-

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Africa son who controls your every movement, and you are in their house 24-7, so imagine the kind of power that gives them.” Faustina Tay’s tragic death mirrors so many of those who have been victims of GBV. Faustina moved from Ghana to Lebanon in May 2019 to make her living as a domestic worker. Soon after arriving in Beirut, Faustina was beaten by agency workers and later subjected to physical and sexual abuse by her employers. Faustina contacted her brother, as well as the activist group ‘This is Lebanon’, detailing accounts of recurrent physical abuse, begging to be sent home. The agency agreed to send her home in March 2020 if she worked to pay for her ticket, but when the time came her employers refused to let her leave, with coronavirus travel restrictions posing further difficulties. Again, Faustina contacted ‘This Is Lebanon’ describing: “My boss beat me mercilessly yesterday [and] dis (sic) morning he took me to the office [and] I was beaten again”. Her final harrowing message read: “Please, I don’t want to die here”. Later in March Faustina was found dead in the car park of her employer’s building. The police have ruled it a suicide. Faustina’s tragic death serves to remind us how common these instances of abuse are, highlighting the major failings in the regulation of domestic work. Recruitment agencies play a key role in this system, sourcing workers from countries in Africa and overseeing their travel and placement into homes in the Middle East. At a recruitment agency in Jordan, employee Mahit Doumit is recorded as saying “there are no human rights in this world. Maybe in Europe. Not in the Middle East”. Such blatant disregard for his employee’s rights paints a dark picture of what occurs during these women’s passage to the Middle East. Outsourcing control over this industry to private agencies has only increased instances of abuse and diminished possible regulation of migrants’ working and living conditions. Governments are just as, if not more accountable for this broken system as agencies and employers are. Across the Middle East countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expelled, deported, imprisoned and denied testing to migrant workers, whilst all GCC states have excluded migrants from their national Covid-19 response plan, making access to healthcare almost impossible. It is unacceptable for governments to actively support the project of migrant domestic labour whilst simultaneously denying workers basic rights and protection within their borders. States that rely on migrant labour as a fundamental part of their national economy should be obliged to ensure their

protection and rights in the workplace. Home countries are also to blame for encouraging their citizens to work in such perilous conditions. In 2012, Kenya acknowledged the high rate of labour abuse experienced by their citizens in the Middle East and banned out-migration to the region. However, following strong lobbying from recruitment agencies, the ban was repealed in 2013, whereupon Kenya signed deals with Jordan and Lebanon enabling them to recruit and contract domestic workers once more. Today, up to 100,000 Kenyans live in the Arab states region, many of whom are employed as domestic workers, and continue to suffer the abuses the Kenyan government highlighted in 2012. The situation for African domestic workers in the Middle East is bleak. Be that as it may, over the past six months the world has witnessed unprecedented changes to the way we live. Systems we believed were too entrenched to transform have been adapted and overturned to support the vulnerable. This signifies the opportunity for change. The presence of 3.16 million domestic workers in the Middle East illustrates their centrality to the national economy and the function of every-day life. Demand for domestic workers is thus unlikely to be affected by increased regulations, giving home countries some degree of leverage. Home nations are in a position to dictate the terms of migrant labour, exact conditions for employment (such as introducing a minimum wage, maximum hours etc), and ensure greater regulation of domestic work. The sanction for non-compliance by host countries would be a ban on out-migration to that nation, meaning that GCC countries are more than likely to continue to employ domestic workers along with the new government guidelines. In the meantime, there are practical steps that can be taken to improve the safety and wellbeing of female migrants, starting with the expansion and improvement of GBV services in the region. Information campaigns in migrants’ native languages outlining access to healthcare and GBV services will give them a greater idea of their rights and the ability to seek support should they need it. Most importantly, individuals, communities and organisations must lobby governments to adopt a zero-tolerance policy towards employer abuse and non-wage payment. If we have learned one thing from the pandemic, it is that mobilisation of change on a national level is more than possible. The demonstration that public opinion is behind greater regulation will help prompt governments to take action to ensure that domestic workers can indeed stay safe in the home.

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Le Damier Jauneby Clara Maire Autumn 2020 • Dialogue

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Middle East edited by Meryem Kucuk

Photo: Erdogan marked four years in July since a 2016 failed coup attempt. Turkish President Press Office/EPA 2020.

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Post-Covid-19 Turkish Foreign Policy: An Ode to Misunderstood Insecurity written by Meryem Kucuk

he past few years have witnessed a significant shift in Turkey’s foreign policy and system of governance, which has both been felt throughout the region and noticed in the international arena. Turkey’s increased assertiveness has recently led to its involvement in Libya, support for Azerbaijan against Armenia and skirmishes with Greece. When paired with Turkey’s internal politics and shifts in Erdogan’s rhetoric, more cynical observers have concluded that these are clear markers of a rising trend of ‘Neo-Ottomanism’ within Turkish governance. The Covid-19 crisis has been key in exasperating these fears, pushing the official rhetoric and the actions to become drastic. However, Turkey’s policies should be viewed less as imperialistic ambitions of regional hegemony and more as the defensive and ad hoc responses of a country who views its internal stability, territorial integrity and economic independence to be under threat. Erdogan’s recent decision to annul the 1934 decree, that turned one of the most contested religious buildings in the world from a mosque into a museum, led to claims of his neo-Ottoman ambitions resurfacing. The neo-Ottomanist appearance of the surprise decision seems less certain when viewed alongside the continuing social impacts of Covid-19 and the mounting economic issues that are beginning to bite into the initially positive public response to the government’s handling of the pandemic. Despite his rhetoric harking back to the days of the magnificent sultans that conquered Istanbul in the 15th century and a time when the Ottoman Empire was strong and stable, this move was a symbolic and transparent attempt to drum up support of his pious political base and instil governmental strength among the Turkish population during a crisis. The timing of this was not accidental. On top of long-running claims of

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Middle East Erdogan’s authoritarianism and his administration’s able to lend in lira. When coupled with depreciatcorruption, the population’s relative dissatisfaction ing currency, this has led to a growing foreign debt with partial lockdowns and a declining economy, repayment issue. Through the tried-and-tested hints to the waning of his popularity. Although not method of selling foreign reserves to buy up your out of step with his usual reclamation of Ottoman own currency, the lira was kept steady for most of heritage, the reversion of the Hagia Sophia into a June and July and the Turkish economy seemed to mosque was a very quick turn-around on his pre- be handling the Covid-19 crisis relatively well. This vious negative responses to a decade-old call. He was, however, a temporary measure and its bailout was trying to not only keep his political base loyal package was, again, based largely on keeping inafter a weak win during the 2018 election but at- terests low, adding to Turkey’s hidden debt. tempting to distract and unify a population during a tumultuous period. The Hagia Sophia, therefore, Erdogan, with both reins in his hands, is in a diffisymbolises not a government guided by neo-Otto- cult position. If he lets the lira fall, companies with man principles, but a reactive and pragmatic one dollar debts struggle. If he increases interest rates, guided by a need to look strong, by combatting he may save the lira but push the economy into a perceived threats with ad hoc policies. This deci- recession made worse by the Covid-19 slump, and sion can be dismissed as political posturing found- this is making no mention of the substantial hit his ed in his insecurity which has been heightened by popularity would take. The post-Covid economy of Turkey is both caused by insecuriCovid-19’s impacts and public ty and has proven to be an insecuresponses. This insecurity can “increased rity in itself. also be seen in the interrelated economic and foreign policy possibility for multi- Turkey’s current foreign polidecisions taken recently. cy, which has been mislabelled national conflict” as neo-Ottomanist, stems from Emerging economies were hit this insecurity. This is clearly deespecially hard by the Covid-19 picted by the geopolitical maelcrisis. Despite Turkey’s economy faring relatively well compared to that of others, the lira had strom with Turkey in its centre that has picked up already lost 10% of its value between March and again in the Europe-Middle East region since the April alone but remained relatively stable through- outbreak of the pandemic. But, Turkey’s geopoout summer. Falls in the lira’s value has meant that litical muscle-flexing loses the expansionist hue there is a rise in the prices of imported goods and it has been painted in when one considers the falls in living standards. With further drops expect- Covid-heightened Turkish social and economic ined over the next few weeks, this is a serious con- security along with its regional isolation. Claiming cern for a president with an already low approval that it was being excluded from attempts to transrate and, overall, Turkey’s current economic posi- form the EU-MENA region into an offshore energy tion is a clear representative of the insecurity it is hub as well as being faced with increased hostility from Egypt and the UAE, in 2019, meant Libya was facing. Turkey’s solution to its perceived territorial integriThe constitutional reforms that followed Erdogan’s ty challenges. Turkey thus signed the highly conre-election in 2018, concentrated a large amount tested Maritime Boundary Treaty with Libya’s inof executive power in his hands. With the appoint- ternationally recognized Government of National ment of his son-in-law as finance minister, his aims Accord (GNA). As well as giving Turkey significant of taking full control of economic policy became sway in transnational gas exploration and pipeline clear. Since then, Erdogan has put pressure on the construction, this treaty promised military assisCentral Bank to keep interest rates low, regardless tance in return for a not-so-subtle reconfiguration of inflation and currency depreciation. Although of the Mediterranean Exclusive Economic Zones keeping interests low has encouraged lending (EEZs). and bolstered the credit boom of the last decade, Turkish banks have had to borrow from American The agreement complicated an already difficult and European banks in dollars and euros to be situation. It lay claim over areas the EastMed pipeline will need to cross and claimed Greece, Cyprus, 74

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Egypt, and Israel cannot explore or construct with- actions become clearer. The steady increase in Turkish foreign policy assertiveness over the past out Turkish permission. few years, much less the recent emboldened deciMid-August saw the East Mediterranean tensions sions, are not planned neo-Ottoman expansionist rise substantially with Turkish and Greek warships manoeuvres. Turkey’s actions are attempts to secoming head to head two days after Turkey sent an cure their territorial integrity, break their regional energy exploration ship into Greek-claimed mar- isolation, increase their economic independence itime territory. This latest wave of tension escala- and, crucially, distract a disquieted population in a tion brought with it increased possibility for multi- period defined by a pandemic.The frequently citnational conflict as Greece received open support ed term ‘neo-Ottomanism’ loads Erdogan’s foreign from Egypt and Israel while France dispatched policies with imperialist and expansionist connowarships into the contested waters. Tension es- tations it does not deserve. Pointing at popular calations have been a long-running theme in this rhetoric, it is tempting to agree but a deeper look region, thus, recent developments do not present into Turkey’s instability, especially those implea significant shift in regional harmony. But, when mented since the Covid-19 crisis, tells a different Turkey’s Covid-heightened internal insecurity is story – one of defensive and responsive actions. considered, the reasons behind Turkey’s recent

Voices from UAE and Turkey written by Clarissa Fraschetti

Photo: Istanbul disinfected mosques to make them ready for reopening, Yasin Akgul/Xinhua, Global Times, 2020.

The Covid-19 pandemic has changed life as we had known it, causing an unprecedented economic recession alongside socio-political changes. The Middle East is no different. These wide-ranging changes are exemplified by Turkey’s and the UAE’s respective responses to the crisis and how these have impacted their economies and the youthful generation. Living in countries with varied circumstances and political systems of governance, parts of this article were informed by citizens we spoke to, hoping to make sense of the recent upheavals. Such opinions will be fundamental in

making sense of the governments’ domestic policies and choices. Following a fast rise in cases and deaths in March, Turkey began its struggle with Covid-19 by implementing novel partial lockdowns, encouraging remote working and remaining indoors where possible. Similar to cities across Europe, Turkish urban centres were described as ghost towns during the select lockdown days. Rural areas saw a slower response as these policies were not implemented as stringently and claims of Covid-19’s inexistence spread quickly. On the other hand, around the same time, the UAE quickly

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Middle East employed travel bans and stricter lockdown measures that only allowed leave for essential needs. Whilst governments, for example, in Britain and the US have been heavily criticised by their citizens for their slow or lacking responses to the pandemic and the subsequent consequences, Turkey and the UAE received more positive initial public feedback.

Agenda through growth in its health, education, infrastructure and competitive economic sectors. Still, with an oil-based economy and a migrant-based labour force, their economy is heavily dependent on the flows of international trade and migration. Therefore, they are particularly vulnerable to the economic impacts of the pandemic. Yet, the UAE is expected to fare relatively better than other countries in the area. It is predicted Turkey, for instance, saw a slight increase in public trust by the IMF to see a contraction in real GDP in 2020 by in the government during the first months of the crisis. -3.5% while Saudi Arabia is expected to see a fall by Depicted in both polls and the Turkish university stu- -6.8% and Bahrain by -3.6%. dents interviewed (both of which study in the UK), the If the UAE attempts to tackle the current econompopularity of the governing party, the AKP, and the Pres- ic crisis similarly to how it handled the 2008 financial ident, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, increased. Crucially, the crisis, the two economically dominant Emirates, Abu Turkish government was initially very effective in trans- Dhabi and Dubai, are the most at risk. Abu Dhabi facforming public perceptions on not only the government es pressure from falling oil demand and prices but is itself but the nature of the looming crisis. The pandemic in a better position to withstand Covid-19’s economic shifted from being simply a public health concern into impact with its large sovereign wealth fund estimated a national threat that endangered at $800 billion. Dubai, however, still the strength and survival of the holding significant sovereign and “There’s a looming country. This legitimised the austate-owned enterprises debt from thoritative policies and garnered the 2008 crisis, has one of the highest debt repayment public support for the implementdebt-to-GDP ratios in the world. ed policies. Meanwhile, Erdogan’s crisis” job approval rate remained over Dubai’s potentially worsening eco50% in polls between the Coronanomic conditions, with the delayed virus outbreak and August. These EXPO 2020, mounting debts and are figures he has struggled to achieve over the past struggling housing market, is likely to impact the UAE year. However, according to the Turkish students, this as a whole, meaning Abu Dhabi may intervene to prosituation has since altered and this is largely to do with tect the economic stability of the country. Meanwhile, the public’s economic dissatisfaction. slow recovery from the pandemic lasting a decade or Domestic socio-political change following the Covid-19 more will impact global tourism and oil industries more crisis within the UAE, on the other hand, is less likely than currently projected. The UAE, already diversifying, than in Turkey. Although interviewees working in the may need to consider further changing the structure UAE did comment on the stringent rule-abiding, vir- of its economy to consistently diversify and encourage tual working and the mixed receptions these policies import substitution industrialisation. received, they also questioned whether these public Similarly, the Turkish economy is also facing mounting responses would have any long-term impacts on gov- economic issues and the Turkish students touched on ernment policies. the general dissatisfaction this was causing. The iniThe UAE is a wealthier, non-democratic state with a rel- tial public trust over the government’s actions took a atively stable governing system and is composed of a heavy hit when the value of the lira dropped in August comparatively younger and expat-heavy population. after remaining stable at 6.85 to the dollar for most of Therefore, the economic impacts of Covid-19 are more June and July. likely to have greater sway on the government’s poli- Like the UAE, the blow Covid-19 dealt to the tourism cies and decisions. sector, which accounts for 10% of the country’s GDP, Like other countries, the UAE cannot yet fully assess the piled further misery onto an already unstable econohuman and economic impacts of the pandemic. The my. Alongside the public health measures placed to UAE holds one of the most economically diversified of avoid the virus seriously impacting the global econothe oil-based economies and, before the Covid-19 out- my, Turkey, not unlike the UAE, is facing a long-running break, was making progress in meeting its Vision 2021 debt crisis. Although the country’s sovereign debt is 76

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relatively low, especially compared to that of the UAE’s, its increasing debt is concealed within its banks which are borrowing in dollars and euros to lend out in lira. Meanwhile, Turkish economic policy has for years centred on pushing interest rates lower to encourage more lending. It did in part work but has left a dangerous debt crisis in its wake. Turkey had successfully managed to bolster its currency over the summer through selling dollars to buy lira on the open market; this was a temporary fix, however. Now, with low-interest rates and depreciating currency, there’s a looming debt repayment crisis. Following the contraction in trade and tourism with the pandemic-induced crisis, Turkey cannot continue as it has. Allowing the lira to fall further will likely lead to banks struggling to pay their dollar debts and the economy sinking into a prolonged recession. However, with debt so wide-spread and economic activity so reliant on it, hiking interest prices could also potentially push Turkey into a deeper recession. With the Covid-19 slump exacerbating Turkey’s looming debt issue, the support President Erdogan saw in June has fizzled away and his job approval has fallen from 50.6% to 47.9% between June and August. But, Turkey is claiming the recent natural gas found in the Black Sea is hinting to more being discovered soon. If so, this would not only aid their economic woes as the impacts of Covid-19 are increasingly felt over the coming months, but, potentially, Turkey could be toying with the geopolitical energy trade in the MENA region. Months into the pandemic, the UAE and Turkey have chosen different paths to follow in tackling the crisis and the young people spoken to have reflected this. With the government now facing increasing criticism, Turkey will need to rethink its economic policies as well as its policies to tackle Covid-19. Improvements in both public opinions on the government and the economy are not impossible but will require the country to act in a quick and targeted manner as it had at the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile, in the UAE, those living there may have seen no obvious internal political change, but the government’s response to the economic impacts of the crisis could significantly alter their internal economic structure. Amid all the uncertainty, one thing seems clear: both states are heading towards significant political and economic change which will invariably alter both the countries and the region in the long-term.

Photo: Dubai, Yasin Akgul/Xinhua, Global Times, 2020.

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Old tensions, new threats: Climate change in post-Covid-19 Middle East written by Badis Khiari Millan Photo: VeggieTech, 2020.

The Middle East is known to be a very climatically diverse region. It includes Mediterranean and alpine environments in the Levant, scattered tropical ecosystems in Yemen and Oman, and wetlands in the Arabian Gulf. However, the vast majority is desert and scrubland. Little rain? Scorching heat? These are the notorious climatic conditions of the Middle East. Whilst civilisation first flourished on the banks of the Euphrates and Tigris, climate change today threatens the very agricultural foundations of the region. Since the Industrial revolution, temperatures have been rising at increasingly alarming rates. In this region, this is particularly dangerous as the already daunting conditions are easily exacerbated. Anthropogenic climate change and rising temperatures have worsened the already-challenging natural conditions of the Middle East, provoking a domino-effect in a positive feedback loop. Covid-19 has exposed these realities, while simultaneously aggravating them. It is known that rising temperatures increase water-scarcity and threaten both lives and living standards of Middle Eastern citizens. In the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, the perils of both physical and economic water scarcity have reared their ugly heads and amplified the impacts of water mismanagement and inequities. Physical water scarcity has long imperilled the desert peoples and restrained agriculture output. However, current unsustainable harvesting of groundwater, such as that in Ras Al Khaimah (UAE), is depleting aquifers and thus worsening the scarcity. This lack of water has critical implications for the effectiveness of the pandemic response efforts and further fuels post-Covid attempts to promote growth and build resilience. Although the issue of physical water scarcity has been successfully solved by the more developed Arab Gulf states i.e. KSA & Kuwait, the solutions came with their own problems. Through desalination plants that use reverse osmosis and other physical processes, salt is

removed from seawater, so that freshwater suitable for human consumption is produced. The issue with desalination is that the highly concentrated brine is splurged back into the sea. Excess brine enhances the naturally saline conditions of the Gulf, which is a threat to coral reefs and fish stocks. On the other hand, economic water scarcity exists when water is physically available but unattainable by locals. Whilst this form of water scarcity might not threaten all of the Gulf nations, it presents problems for the poorest Arab countries, such as war-torn Yemen. Yemen is suffering what some label as the greatest humanitarian crisis in history. Covid-19 is highlighting the result of a collective failure to uphold the most basic human right to water and sanitation. War, the violation of human rights, and lack of sanitation only render the Yemeni people more vulnerable to Covid-19. Jordan is another Arab nation threatened by aridity, particularly as its namesake river is drying up. The river has given life to the inhabitants of this region since time immemorial. However, intensive irrigation and climate change accelerate its depletion, threatening the nation’s agriculture, livelihood, and health of its people. With strict lockdown measures against Covid-19, the Jordanian monarchy did well in protecting its people, resulting in a relatively low number of cases. However, whilst the nation’s productivity might be put on hold during the lockdown, climate change does not pause with it. Aridity, drought, and desertification still threaten the agro-economies of the Middle East. Resuming farming activities could potentially cause a quick and unplanned rise in demand for irrigation water, risking overdrawing water and exasperating an already dire issue. Post-pandemic, the Kingdom should follow-through with the Ministry of Water and Irrigation’s plan of expanding combined desalination and groundwater capabilities in order to provide for their growing population and to protect the river’s supply. Covid-19

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exposed another raw truth: many Middle Eastern coun- ity-ruled-by-minority government, the sea levels are tries, especially the Gulf states, are reliant on food im- incessantly creeping up. It is expected that by the end ports from elsewhere as their climates are not favour- of 2020, 45% of the population will be in poverty, and able for most agriculture production. Climate change is the economic downturn of Covid-19 is only worsenfurther reducing its agricultural capabilities. By disrupt- ing. The staggering levels of homelessness caused by ing the global food supply system, Covid-19 has ex- the August blast have led to Covid-19 cases to surge posed the reality that a shift in agriculture is necessary in the capital. Additionally, 3 hospitals were “rendered for these states to survive on their own. For example, non-functional”, losing 500 beds, as well as 17 containthe minister of food security, Mariam Al-Mheiri of the ers of Covid-19 healthcare supplies. It is imperative that UAE has been preparing for such a catastrophe, since the people of Lebanon, setting aside their differences, 90% of the nation’s food is imported. The UAE is one of form an effective government and focus on combatthe global leaders in innovation, including in the envi- ing coastal erosion and rising sea levels. As the sea ronment and agriculture arenas. With the assistance of continues to rise, more people will be displaced. With international partnerships, the UAE has taken the reins Covid-19 cases rising and the government’s negligence on combating climate change and the effects on its cit- of the blasts, the clamour for reform will only further izens. Through agrotechnology, in a joint-venture with intensify. South Korea, the UAE managed to grow and harvest rice The Syrian and Iraqi governments have been busy with for the first time in the desert. Using a rice strain that is the sheer violence and instability caused by the topless reliant on water, the farmers harvested the staple pling of dictators and foreign intervention in the name crop, in the hot and arid deserts of of “democracy”, however, this has the UAE. The scientists managed to not stopped the people from com“shift in agriculture harvest 763 kilograms of rice from bating climate change. In Syria, for just 1,000 square meters of desert. example, a 23-year old has created is necessary for these Once implemented on a national a hydroponic facility on his roofstates to survive on scale, the UAE could potentially no top which can annually produce 35 longer rely on rice imports to feed tonnes of vegetation. He has surtheir own.” its near 10 million citizens. passed his economic restraints and Similarly, the lack of fertile soil has during Covid-19, has been a great propelled massive investments into hydroponics (a help to his neighbourhood. However, the refugee crimethod of growing crops without conventional soil), sis remains. Whilst the main reason for refugees fleeing since surprisingly, freshwater is more available than fer- these nations is due to war, climate change will only intile soil. Companies like VeggiTech, have started grow- crease the number of refugees leaving the region. Refuing vegetables, so as to enable the UAE’s transition to gees are particularly vulnerable to Covid-19 as they are greater independence from external assistance. It re- not guaranteed to have basic healthcare essentials and mains clear that national lockdowns have exposed the living in dilapidated and overcrowded camps means harsh reality of the Gulf states’ unsustainable agricul- it is very challenging to practice social distancing. In a tural model, hence, their desire to become agricultur- global pandemic, they are defenceless and often unacally self-sufficient. counted for. Lebanon on the other hand, the only Middle Eastern nation without a desert, and often the centre of political turmoil, has experienced Covid-19 in a very different manner. It had managed to keep Covid-19 cases relatively low, however, the people have taken to the streets in protest of the government, following the tragic explosion in Beirut on August 4th, which utterly devastated the city and destroyed around 300,000 homes. Nonetheless, with 80% of the population living near the coast, climate change has long threatened the Lebanese people as rising sea levels could cause up to 140 million dollars of damage by 2040. Whilst the people have been fighting the religiously stratified, major-

Covid-19, and the potential of future pandemics, in parallel with climate change, threaten Middle Eastern countries and only exacerbate the political turmoil they have been facing. Nations need to continue investment into technologies like hydroponics and desalination in order to address the risks exposed by Covid-19. To overcome Covid-19 and climate change challenges, intergovernmental organisations such as the Gulf Cooperation Council, need to step up and help their poorer neighbours. In handling the challenges of climate change together, potentially, a better post-pandemic world can be built – one with peace, accessible water, and sustainable agriculture.

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An Economic Snapshot of Covid-19 in Saudi Arabia written by Ala’a Sukhera Photo:Alexey Nikolski, Sputnik, AFP, Getty Images, 2019.

Reduced movements by land and air caused by Covid-19 resulted in a lack of demand and oversaturation of oil in the global market. This led to dropping oil prices as the pandemic spread. Oil consumption is estimated to have fallen by 25 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf region producers hoped restraining oil production would staunch the fall of prices as the year progressed, but soon realised they would need to take action beyond the 13 OPEC states (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) to restore stability in the oil market. At the beginning of March, Saudi Arabia met with Russia, which leads an additional 10 states in the OPEC+, and other non-OPEC members to discuss reducing oil production in order to raise prices again. Russia did not agree to this strategy, arguing it would benefit US shale oil producers, or frackers, most. This view likely stems from a Russian desire not to repeat the outcome of the 2014 crisis. US frackers increased oil production by 3.5 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2014. Demand did not match the significant increase in oil, resulting in a price crash. Saudi Arabia attempted to hinder their new North American competition by flooding the market with oil. Shale producers simply found cheaper ways to operate and prices did not recover until 2016 when Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to cooperate in managing prices. This created the informal alliance of OPEC and OPEC+. Their production cuts raised prices again, bolstering US shale, which became the world’s leading crude oil producer in 2018. It is therefore understandable why Russia was not enthusiastic to cut production and raise prices again this March, as it would help the US maintain market share

it had taken from Russia and other OPEC+ members in the aftermath of the 2014 crisis. The March negotiations failed, and international crude prices further decreased. Saudi Arabia proclaimed a price war on March 6th by increasing its oil production by 2 million barrels per day, bringing prices down to an 18 year low of $20 per barrel on March 8th. This was a strategic move. Firstly, the Kingdom’s ability to plunge prices was a timely reminder for the global audience that they are the world’s lowest-cost oil producer. Consequently, other oil-producing countries directly or indirectly depend on them for their share in the market. The drastically lower prices also allowed Saudi to recoup some of the market shares it had yielded to US shale and others. Likewise, the price crash guaranteed a future market for Saudi exports by solidifying relationships in Asia, particularly with China and India. Their display of oil market volatility discouraged the two rising powers’ plans to develop domestic fracking, hindering their progress towards self-sufficiency of oil supply, and maintaining their dependence on Saudi oil. In turn, this aids Saudi’s goal of diluting its own dependence on the US. Equally, the prospect of several years of cheap oil in the market halted investment by other high-cost oil-producing countries, successfully inhibiting any switch to energy sources other than oil, which is crucial in a world that has recently been considering more renewable forms of energy. Finally, the most negatively affected countries were not Saudi allies. Russia and Iran depend heavily on revenue from oil exports and are two of Syria’s main backers. Damage to their economies would not worry Saudi Arabia, which has

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repeatedly expressed its disapproval of the Assad regime. Nevertheless, the price war came to an end after 31 days. Its conclusion illuminates several challenges Saudi Arabia will face in the future. Primarily, it reveals that the Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman can no longer take the Saudi-American relationship for granted. President Trump, under pressure from the US Senate, threatened to withdraw US military support, impose sanctions on Riyadh, and impose import tariffs on Saudi oil, if they did not agree to cut output. It is ironic that the US would come to rely on agreements to cut production in order to keep its oil businesses afloat, considering it has never participated in production cuts itself and successfully overcame the 2014 crisis. The loss of stable US backing will require Saudi Arabia to look closer to home for allies in the future. Of the 8 countries it shares borders with, it has particularly hostile relations with Yemen and Qatar. The Crown Prince could lift their embargo on Qatar to forge warmer alliances there, however, Qatar may find it more difficult to ignore the accusation which led to the embargo – namely that they support terrorism. The pandemic has allowed for a ceasefire in Yemen, but considering the Saudi led intervention has been ongoing since 2015 it is unlikely that Yemen will become a close ally of the Kingdom any time soon. Perhaps the crowning of a new sultan in Oman may lead to closer ties there if Bin Salman is willing. Beyond the Arabian Peninsula, Saudi relations with developing countries rely on the Kingdom’s ability to hand out loans, which, considering its reduced economic circumstances as a direct result of the price war and the pandemic, will somewhat constrain their ability to forge new relations. Although prices have been recovering since Saudi Arabia agreed to slash output with the US, OPEC+, and other G-20 nations in April, the price war exposed serious insecurity in Saudi Arabia’s economic system. The Kingdom is estimated to have lost $12 billion in revenue and faces its steepest economic contraction in a generation. Saudi Vision 2030 aimed to combat this issue of overreliance on oil, by diversifying its economy. Since 2016 the Kingdom has enforced pay cuts for pub-

Middle East lic sector employees; reduced subsidies for fuel, natural gas, and water; and introduced a 5% tax on goods. The private sector is dominated by foreign workers and most of their income returns to their respective countries. Consequently, the private economy of Saudi Arabia relies on the spending of government employees, whose salaries are close to 50% of government spending. Hence, the private economy is indirectly fed by the oil economy. Saudi Vision 2030 attempted to combat this overreliance on oil by kickstarting tourism and developing the private sector by investing in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The Kingdom planned to generate more employment for citizens through SMEs, hoping to raise its contribution to the countries’ GDP from 20% to 35%. SMEs were a critical component to varying Saudi’s economy, as they were to be a basis for larger non-oil enterprises in the future. Unfortunately, the price war led to the collapse of many SMEs across the Middle East and although Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE, set up stimulus packages for their SMEs, these packages again create unwanted dependence on oil revenue to fund them. Saudi Arabia, along with other GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) states, has relied on government spending to sustain the people’s support. Gulf regimes have compensated for the lack of public political participation by providing their citizens’ subsidies and welfare benefits, but when oil profits dive so does government spending. In the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Springs uprisings, GCC states may feel too threatened to open up the political realm. If the oil price war is seen to affect the Saudi public too directly, it could create political insecurity by triggering popular discontent. The oil price war has simultaneously underlined the acute necessity for economic diversification in Saudi Arabia and made it more difficult to achieve. Even under ideal circumstances, the structural changes needed to shift the economy away from hydrocarbon dependence would take decades to realise. Yet, the impact of Covid-19 on the global oil economy has made the evolution of this manner critical, to secure a more politically and economically stable future for The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

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edited by Amadeo Hachez

Photo: Singapore Harbour, mot.gov. 2018 in “S’pore is strengthening its position as China’s gateway to Southeast Asia: Lam Pin Min” by Kayla Wong published in mothership.sg. 82

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Behind China’s Economic Recovery: Social Stability at Risk? written by Amadeo Hachez

ince the outbreak of Covid-19 in Wuhan, Hubei province, at the end of 2019, China has been one of the main protagonists in what has quickly become a global health crisis. The country’s tight handling of the epidemic and its swift economic recovery have challenged conventional views about the superiority of the liberal-democratic system of governance over autocratic rule and state capitalism. But behind China’s laudable results lies another reality: social disparities are widening at a rapid pace, and it could mean trouble for President Xi Jinping’s post-Covid-19 regime. After two months of lockdown in most of China’s metropoles, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on April 17, that the country’ economy had dropped by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 – the worst economic shrinkage since the Cultural Revolution in 1976. China’s experience in handling virus outbreaks – most notably the 2002-2004 SARS epidemic – and its heavily digitalised economy have dampened the short-term economic downfalls of the novel coronavirus. Compared to other major economies, Chinese economic conditions remain impressively solid. However, domestic demand is lagging as the household disposable income has reached an all-time low, and consumer confidence in the economy is lacking. Per capita consumer spending for low to middle-income groups in urbanised areas fell by 6.2% in the second quarter of 2020, following a 9.5% drop in the first quarter of the year. The absence of a well-developed social security system in China and the rapid health care privatisation in recent years have encouraged households to save money. Just as China’s exports are suffering from massive cancellations worldwide, domestic consumption – which accounted for 57.8% of GDP growth in 2019 – does not seem to provide the sought-after relief to the Chinese economy. Abroad, Peking’s cornerstone for ensuring the prosperity of the Chinese people – the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – has not been spared by the global health crisis. According to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, an estimated 20% of the BRI’s projects

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Asia have been seriously affected by local measures to fight the coronavirus and by restrictions on travel and the flow of goods across borders. These pushbacks strike China two years after the country was forced to resize several projects in 2018, due to concerns from partner countries about unnecessary costs, loss of sovereignty and corruption. Nevertheless, China remains the fastest-growing retail sales market in the world, and IMF forecasts indicate an economic growth of 1.2% in 2020 and above 5% a year between 2020 and 2025. The early resumption of economic activity and the implementation of government stimuli aimed at backing the industrial sector and encouraging investment and construction projects have enabled a swift return to economic growth. According to statistics from China’s central bank, over 90.7% of enterprises in the services industry nationwide had reopened as of June 15. But economic recovery does not imply social recovery. Consumer-led measures adopted by the Chinese government have benefited the wealthy – rather than the average household. Overall, Chinese authorities have spent less on stimulus packages – Rmb6.1tn. ($880bn) – as compared to their American and European counterparts - $3tn and $2tn respectively. Instead of directly transferring money to consumers to protect businesses, the governmental policy has been focused on bolstering businesses through tax cuts and employment subsidies. Much of these policies have not been applied as intended; many companies have used the subsidies to compensate for their revenue losses. Moreover, direct subsidies such as unemployment benefits, which are allocated by provincial authorities, have proven to be insufficient, thereby forcing authorities to make them available only to local residents. Consequently, a majority of migrant workers who left the countryside to seek work in urban areas – about 300 million Chinese citizens – are left ineligible to benefits. China’s lower economic classes are suffering disproportionately from the effects of the pandemic. Unemployment among the low to middle-income class is more than double the national average of 5.7% and low to middle-income per capita spending is falling for the second consecutive quarter in 2020, even as overall e-commerce revenue recovered. An estimated 70 to 80 million Chinese citizens lost their jobs or were unable to resume work when lockdowns were lifted, and many businesses decided to cut salaries in order to cope with the country’s unfavourable economic conditions. Re-

newed trade tensions between the US and China and the upcoming global recession could cause the loss of another 10 million jobs in the export-related industries. Meanwhile, luxury-car sales in China have increased by more than a quarter as compared to the same period last year, and Western fashion houses are reporting soaring revenues since the lockdowns were lifted in late March. Wealthier Chinese have been able to maintain their jobs or businesses by working from home during the pandemic. The high-income group also benefited from Beijing’s credit-easing policy which sent equity and housing markets soaring. As a result, high-end shopping quickly resumed. These growing social disparities are going directly against Xi Jinping’s grand schemes for the Chinese economy. Avoiding the middle-income trap and doubling the 2010 Chinese per capita GDP numbers by 2020 have become president Xi’s main priorities since he became China’s paramount leader in 2012. China’s population is ageing and the years of double-digit growth seem very distant as Chinese manufacturing costs are outcompeted by those of less developed nations. China’s economic success story over the past 40 years allowed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to gain popular support by lifting more than 400 million Chinese out of poverty. But the Beijing government now needs new tools to create wealth for its people. In order to secure sustained economic welfare for the Chinese people – and thus popular support for the regime – Xi Jinping is relying on large infrastructure projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, and on the transformation of the Chinese economy into one that relies more on internal demand, high value-added products, services and innovation. The question remains, how will China’s president achieve these economic reforms if lower-income classes are unable to thrive in China’s economic system? These social concerns, which could be nimbly morphed into the regime’s ambitious social credit system, may pose another threat to the realisation of Xi Jinping’s dreams for a post-Covid China. Massive unemployment is looming over the country, threatening the social stability of the nation. This comes at a most inopportune time when Xi Jinping is trying to reinvent China’s economy to ensure a bright future for a Communist-led China. The coronavirus-induced economic and social crisis in China has only been dealt with on one front. A poor handling of the social crisis could deal a permanent blow to Xi Jinping’s regime.

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A Spider on a Changing Web: Lessons from Singapore

written by Michael Liu The disruptions wrought by Covid-19 have, interestingly, not ground the world to a complete halt. Rather, they have forced changes, in varying degrees, to how affairs are conducted worldwide. Singapore finds itself in a challenging position as one of the world’s smallest nation-states in Southeast Asia. While the virus has been contained domestically, broader regional and global dynamics pose serious risks for Singapore as one of the most trade-dependent countries in the world. Nonetheless, Singapore’s vulnerability has been equally met with a strong imperative to anticipate and negotiate developments in its strategic environments. This would be put to the test with the onset of Covid-19, as the city-state had to calibrate its international outreach and diplomacy to meet new strategic uncertainties from supply chain disruptions and great power competition. Perhaps one of the most pressing issues that confronted the island city-state in the early days of Covid-19, and continues to do so, was the need to keep global supply chains open. Singapore’s small size has driven creative and ambitious efforts to increase self-sufficiency in recent years. Still, a significant chunk of its economy and livelihoods continues to rely heavily on global supply chains to ensure even the most basic of materials and supplies, such as foodstuff, are obtained. As Covid-19 spread globally at the start of 2020, the resulting closure of borders and transport routes posed an urgent and serious risk to the internationally-dependent city-state. It was under this specific context that a swift and proactive effort to liaise internationally with other countries and partners paid dividends. Leveraging upon its diplomatic clout and international status, Singapore scored successes in negotiating joint commitments to keep the flow of essential goods open with a wide plethora of partners, ranging from Chile, Nauru and Australia in the Pacific to the UAE in the Middle East. In one interesting case, Singapore even managed to guarantee a steady supply of eggs from Poland, certainly an unconventional source for essential foodstuff. As a temporary spike in cases eased off with more stringent social distancing measures first introduced in April, Singapore also began entering into agreements to allow essential travel for business. The first came with China in June, with another similar arrangement possibly emerging between Singapore and Japan Photo: Maverick Asio / Echoes Wire / Barcroft Media, Getty Images, 2020. Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 85

Asia in September. Nonetheless, the volatile situation still offers many These successes in preserving linkages with the rest of opportunities for post-Covid-19 Southeast Asia. While the world, or creating new ones, did not come coinci- US-China relations may shape the overall structure of dentally. They were built upon a foundation of main- the Pacific, the region still has a life of its own that can taining a strong economy deeply enmeshed into the be exploited by Singapore’s leadership to maximise global ecosystem, and thus relevant internationally. the country’s autonomy and agency. Besides the usual Additionally, they underscore the need to actively pur- deepening of ties with regional actors ranging from Jasue ties with not just the great powers, but also regional pan to Australia, Singapore has itself played a key role in actors and other smaller countries. The benefits of such creating and sustaining multilateral frameworks across efforts were not always immediately apparent, but they the region. Joining partnerships such as the Comprewere pursued vigorously enough anyways to maintain hensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Singapore’s linkages with the world and preserve valu- Partnership (CPTPP) and the ASEAN (Association of able supply chains in extraordinary times. Southeast Asian Nations) Digital Integration FrameSupply chains are only the tip of the iceberg. Of par- work (DIF), among many others, allows Singapore to ticular concern is the broader strategic environment contribute in shaping regions to become more indein which Singapore is situated in, encompassing larg- pendent and resilient. There may be an even greater er economic, security, and political dimensions. Most imperative to solidify the ASEAN digital initiative now, notably, that of US-China geopolitical relations. In this given that the Covid-19 pandemic has not just altered regard, the pandemic could not international exchanges but also unhave come at a more inopporderscored the value of digitalised ser“preserving tune time as it increased mistrust vices, products and platforms with its between the two great powers changes to the way we live. linkages with the rest whose actions will determine the In a sense, many of the challenges of the world.(..)did not future of the Pacific, and conseand opportunities that Singapore quently that of Singapore. The digrapples with are not wholly unique. come coincidentally.” rect consequence of the strained Themes such as multilateralism work relations would be to impede to the benefit of many other small global cooperation and recovery from the pandemic in countries and regional actors too. What is unique in the short-term. More problematic, however, is the lon- Singapore’s case is that strategic and economic issues ger-term hard-lining of conflicting Chinese and Amer- affect not just its prosperity, but its very survival as a ican stances on strategic issues in the area. Rightly or sovereign state. A successful city-state does not prowrongly, China’s initial handling of the outbreak seems duce much in terms of quantity but rather acts as a to have solidified American perceptions of the Chinese centre, hub, or organiser that creates value and multisystem as fundamentally untrustworthy. In particular, plies it, while situated at the heart of global affairs. The China’s lack of transparency in the early stages became Covid-19 pandemic has certainly brought disruptions a key talking point in the US, driving some to view the to global patterns, but Singapore’s experience shows Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as fundamentally un- that rapid adaptations, such as liaison with unconvenable to respect global norms. Conversely, China has, for tional partners and the pursuit of regional multilaterreasons of nationalism and international prestige, esca- alism beyond the traditional great powers, can serve lated military activities in the South China Sea, an area to mitigate some of the disruptions. Yet perhaps the of key interest for Singapore’s maintenance of open greatest takeaway of all has something to do with the trade routes. These developments, on top of accusa- rapidity with which the pandemic arose and disrupttions of disinformation campaigns and verbal spars, ed global affairs. Before Covid-19, many would have pose the pertinent risk of placing additional pressures recognised features such as extensive diplomatic reon Singapore as the country seeks to cultivate good relations, diversification, integration, upgrading of manlations with both while simultaneously preserving its power and technology, as positive qualities to possess. autonomy to make sovereign decisions. Singapore, as This is where the global pandemic becomes a ‘black a regional hub for international commerce and finance, swan’ event. Nonetheless, these qualities made Singawill, after all, not be able to fully recover unless the cur- pore resilient in the face of an unexpected cataclysm. rent international system is upheld and great power Hopefully, it will continue to do so in a highly unprerelations are characterised by coexistence rather than dictable post-pandemic international system. zero-sum competition. 86

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New Zealand and the Changing Attitudes to Female Leaders During Covid-19 written by Maisie Allen Photo: Jacinda Arden, Getty Images, 2020.

Amidst the turbulence of the upcoming United States Presidential election and its monopolisation of the mediatic space, another election is taking place this autumn. In October, the citizens of New Zealand will head to the ballot boxes. At the moment, Prime Minister and leader of the New Zealand Labour Party Jacinda Ardern is leading a minority coalition government with the leader of the anti-immigration party New Zealand First, Winston Peters, as her deputy. Nevertheless, many pollsters have Ardern and the New Zealand Labour Party predicted to make significant gains in October with the potential to lead a majority government. This is coming hot on the heels of global praise for Ardern’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis, alongside other female leaders, paving the way for a new generation of politicians who are not afraid to embrace a form of leadership that distances itself from the traditionally male-dominated approaches. Ardern’s leadership saw New Zealand become one of the first countries to reach a 100-day milestone without a recorded transmission of Covid-19 before a spike of 4 new cases in Auckland sent the entire city into full lockdown. However, the praise does not stop there. Over the past three years, Ardern has managed to pass legislation regarding paid leave for domestic abuse survivors, confirmed child poverty reduction targets, banned housing sales for foreign visitors, among other developments in health and education. Subsequently, Peters and his New Zealand First party look decidedly anxious about October’s election, even attempting to pressure Ardern into delaying it further until November. Since she took

office in 2017, she has been lauded by the global media as a new kind of leader, namely more empathetic and effective in her approach. The Covid-19 crisis has made this even more evident. Her daily briefings for the New Zealand public encouraged them to ‘be kind’, while at the same time emphasising the government’s zero-tolerance approach for those who flouted the lockdown rules. This included demoting her own Health Minister after he made an unnecessary drive to the beach with his family during the lockdown period, with Ardern stating that New Zealand ‘deserved better’. One aspect of the current media discourse which cannot be ignored is that of gender. In the recent news coverage of political leadership and the results of various approaches to the Covid-19 pandemic, female leaders and the countries they lead are consistently viewed as the most successful. Ardern is no exception. When New Zealand began their lockdown on March 25th, she addressed the country from a Facebook Live session, moving away from the formalities of national broadcast television addresses, seen in several other countries. By openly sharing her feelings about the country’s lockdown and reassuring its citizens, she portrayed herself as an accessible yet firm leader. Just like Ardern, other female leaders, including Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, have surpassed expectations when it comes to dealing with the pandemic. Ing-wen’s leadership saw Taiwan managing to control the virus without the need for a national lockdown, mainly by relying on contact tracing and isolation measures instead. Arguably, the pandemic could serve as a tipping

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Asia point for women in politics across the globe. Covid-19 has demonstrated that often overtly masculine traits, such as individualism and aggression, which political discourses have often tended to associate with strong leadership, have failed to effectively respond to the crisis we are currently facing.

The looming global recession in the wake of Covid-19 is just another symptom of the breaking relationship between capitalism and government. Likely, mass redundancies and countrywide reductions in product output mean that empathetic and decisive leadership will be essential for any country to survive this pandemic. In the UK, this included an emphasis on a Darwin-Esque New Zealand seems certain to follow this path in the ‘herd immunity’ strategy, rather than a strict lockdown wake of the October election, suggesting that female for all citizens, which many felt resulted in hundreds of leadership in the Covid-19 crisis has proved impactful, unnecessary deaths. In the years to come, with the af- bringing about a change in what potential voters look termath of Covid-19 still likely to be felt amongst the for in a leader. Ardern spent time with a diverse range younger generations, this could be the start of a new of experts to create the New Zealand government’s wave of female leaders who are not slated for display- Covid-19 strategy, which proved to be somewhat risking traits associated with femininity but are embraced. averse, despite the fact it meant shutting down the As such, in New Zealand, it is unsurprising that Peters’ New Zealand economy earlier than many expected. future within the government looks decidedly uncer- Female leaders are sometimes deemed to be more tain. This is especially because his party’s anti-immigra- cautious than their male counterparts. They also tend tion main talking point is at odds to be judged more harshly in the eyes with the need for global coheof the public given that our very notion “displaying traits sion and co-operation in the of leadership is inherently linked with fight against the Covid-19 panassociated with femi- masculine traits. This is an entrenched demic. Additionally, his overtly patriarchal trope in itself, which exninity but are critical and often brash nature is plains the heedful strategies of many something which could alienate women leaders worldwide. embraced ” many members of the public, many of which will currently be Ardern has followed a similar cautionlooking for a more empathetic ary tale in preparation of the 2020 leader for their country, highlighted in Ardern’s current general election, presenting herself as someone who approval ratings. can remain calm through crises, whilst ensuring that the citizens of New Zealand feel adequately protected However, one thing that Ardern and Tsai Ing-wen have and represented by their government. Even before the in common besides their gender, is their political lean- Covid-19 pandemic began, Ardern led New Zealand ings. Many of the leaders deemed to be failures when into becoming one of the first countries to design their dealing with Covid-19, like the UK’s Prime Minister Bo- budget around citizens’ wellbeing rather than solely ris Johnson or the US President Donald Trump, are of- GDP, investing millions into child poverty reduction ten on the conservative right of the political spectrum, and mental health facilities. Whilst critics have claimed meaning their individualist approach to health and that these budgets overreach those of a so-called typsocial care and prioritisation of the free market have ical Western liberal democracy, Ardern is willing to put seen incredibly high death tolls across their respective the safety of New Zealand and its citizens as her main countries. Arguably then, more ideologically left-lean- manifesto priority. ing politicians like Ardern could be paving the way for As such, Ardern’s leadership and management of the a newer approach to politics and the role of the state in New Zealand Labour Party, alongside her coalition govcitizens’ lives. Ardern, who has been recorded as hav- ernment with Peters, look set to help change perceping socialist leanings, has been implementing such an tions of what a strong leader looks like. Women have agenda in her recovery plan for New Zealand. slowly been making their way to the forefront of global political leadership for decades, but Covid-19 could fiIt includes commitments to spend more on public ser- nally be the tipping point for a new era of female leadvices so that New Zealanders are granted equal access ership. to these services even with the threat of an impending recession. 88

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by Amalia Hajieva Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 89

North America edited by Rebecca Visser

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Photo: Essential workers and advocates rallied in Queens last week asking the city. Edwin Martínez/Courtesy El Diario, 2020.

The US CARES Act and Latinx Workers Racial Capitalism at Work written by Grace Hunley

he economic slump resulting from the coronavirus pandemic has hit minority groups particularly hard in the United States, especially those of the Latinx community. According to the Pew Research Center, unemployment rates in the United States in June 2020 were the highest for people identifying as Latinx at 14.5%, with US-born Latinx people and Latinx women having higher rates of unemployment than foreign-born Latinx people and Latinx men respectively. Similarly, 59% of Latinx people in the US claim that they have experienced unemployment or pay cuts due to the pandemic, compared to 49% of the total population of the US. While one reason for the inequities presented in these statistics is the high number of Latinx workers in service-sector jobs that were shut down during the pandemic, policy issues are contributing to and exacerbating the economic hardships of Latinx people during the pandemic.

Racial capitalism is a major cause of the longstanding racial and socioeconomic disparities that have become exceedingly evident during the pandemic. ‘Racial capitalism’, a term coined by Cedric Robinson in his book Black Marxism: The Making of the Black Radical Tradition, emerged from the world histories of slavery, violence, imperialism and genocide as a capitalist system that is heavily influenced by racism and nationalism. Throughout the course of capitalism, racialisation has allowed governments and corporations to profit off of black and brown peoples by commodifying them. The most striking example of this has been the enslavement of native and African peoples, starting during the colonisation of the Americas. Racial capitalism persists in current US policies. As an example, many Latinx children are being separated from their families and detained in private detention centres around the US-Mexico border. This policy has resulted in hefty profits for the prisons as NBC News reports that it costs around $775 per night to keep each child. The recent CARES Act (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act) carries two policies that also exemplify this, if less conspicuously: denying stimulus aid to workers paying taxes with an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN) and denying stimulus aid to mixed-status families – those families that include

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both documented and undocumented workers. ing to the Center for American Progress, it is approxiIt is no secret that migrant labour is a staple of the mated that around 16.2 million people were living in American economy. In the healthcare system alone, mixed-status families in the US in 2017. The CARES Act 1 in 4 doctors in the US are immigrants and 29,000 denied these people, including US citizens, stimulus healthcare professionals are part of the Deferred Action check payments if their spouse or their dependent was for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. The Council of listed on their tax returns using an ITIN number. Under Foreign Relations’ Think Global Health also reports that these policies, many American Latinx people are fur53% of farmworkers in the US are immigrants, many of ther disadvantaged. By forcing mixed-status families whom are undocumented. Latinx migrants, document- to pay taxes, and then not allowing families to receive ed and undocumented, are highly represented workers stimulus aid from the CARES Act due to filing their taxes in the health system and food system – both of which with an ITIN, the US government is fundamentally capihave been essential during the pandemic. Regardless talising off of the mixed-status migrant families. of these contributions to the American economy, those who are undocumented and working illegally are des- US history has demonstrated, through African enslaveignated as criminals under US federal law. At the same ment, Japanese internment camps, Mexican border time, the US government has no imprisonment, and the recent Black issue with taking tax dollars from Lives Matter movement against po“The US governundocumented migrants. Undoclice brutality, to name a few examples, umented migrants can apply for that many racist policies permeate the ment is clearly an ITIN number instead of the Soculture of the US government. Though profiting off of their these two policies from the CARES cial Security number (SSN), which requires them to pay federal taxmay not intentionally single out immigration status” Act es to the US government regardLatinx families, they ultimately affect less of their immigration status. non-white immigrant communities, According to the IRS, the most the largest being Latinx people in the recent data shows there were 4.4 million people that US. Latinx migrants are a vital part of the US economy paid $23.6 billion in taxes using an ITIN number in 2015. as evident through their contributions to the US govThis scheme was created in 1996 to increase the feder- ernment in the form of labour and taxes, which are enal tax revenue; via this, both US employers and the US couraged through the use of the ITIN scheme. The US government enable the employment of undocument- government is clearly profiting off of their immigration ed workers. status or the status of their family members, meaning that many Latinx people are unable to benefit from the Yet, even though the US government requires that they aid packages that their tax dollars are contributing to. pay the federal taxes that partly fund the US coronavirus packages, undocumented migrants are unable These policies exemplify the US government attemptto apply for any stimulus money from the CARES Act ing to erase the Latinx migrant contributions to the based on their immigration status. Many Democrat- American economy. It severely disadvantages many ic senators including Patty Murray (Washington) and American Latinx people, whilst the US continues to Mazie Hirano (Hawaii) noted this issue in their letter to benefit from their skills and employment. People who Republican Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, are marginalised and exploited by governments face that called for including workers who pay taxes using long-term social and economic repercussions, and an ITIN number in the next aid package. there is no doubt that the US government’s current policies outlined in the CARES Act will affect generations Another discriminatory policy that affects many Latinx of Latinx people to come. The Covid-19 pandemic profamilies in the US is the refusal to grant coronavirus vides yet another example of how racial capitalism is stimulus aid to mixed-status families, including to the alive and thriving in the United States. members of the family that are US citizens. Accord-

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Towards New Federalism?

Photo: Andrew Cuomo speaks during a daily briefing New York, Mike Segar, Reuters, 2020.

he dual nature of the United States government has always been its greatest strength, as well as one of its greatest issues. Out of the fear of tyranny, the necessity of common defence and the preservation of liberty, the Founding Fathers envisioned a divided government: state and federal, both emanating from the people, were to be entrusted with different prerogatives and purposes. In theory, this unique political system has remained almost unchanged for more than 230 years. In practice, as with all human institutions, it has adapted to circumstances and bowed to political pressure. The Covid-19 pandemic will not fundamentally alter US federalism on its own, but it will likely greatly accelerate an existing trend, an offshoot of increasing polarisation: the hollowing out of the central government and a resurgence of individual states. In early August, coronavirus was spreading faster in the US than any other nation, with circa 60,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths every day. The Centre for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) response to the crisis has been widely criticised as inadequate. But as the former head of the CDC Dr Tom Frieden put it, ‘blaming the CDC for the failed US response is like blaming someone who was bound and encased in concrete for failing to swim’. The reason for these failures can be better found in the system itself: a federal arrangement that has been under assault for more than 30 years. For most of the United States’ history, state’s rights were the law of the land. Individual states decided questions of race, reproduction, religion, and the like. The federal government acted merely as a guardian of the collective interests of the states and controlled foreign affairs. However, the great demands of the WWII war effort and FDR’s New Deal social programmes led to an unprecedented increase in federal tax revenue. According to historian Gary Gerstle, in 1938 federal rev-

written by Vlad Adamescu

enues made up only 40% of all government revenue. Only a decade later, that percentage had risen to 70%. This trend started to change when conservatives in the Reagan administration began pressuring Congress to cut federal taxes until the central government would simply be forced to scrap social programmes such as Medicare, in a strategy known as ‘starving the beast’. By the 1990s, this deep-rooted hostility towards federal institutions had made its way into the mainstream of political discourse and had become ‘the new centre’, with President Clinton even stating that ‘the era of big government’ was over. The assault on the federal government was well underway. This fed a cycle which turned hearts and minds, as well as policy, against the federal government: the less money the Federal Reserve receives, the less it can do, and the more people start questioning the validity of national taxes. As federal power decreases, states seem to be reclaiming power. The political result of conservative suspicion of federal power appeared in the 2010 midterms, with the massive gains made by the Tea Party – a movement within the Republican Party born out of opposition to early Obama-era economic recovery plans. The Tea Party’s goal is simple: shrink the size of the government, block any new spending and dismantle existing social programmes like Obamacare. While against the spending cuts Tea Party members call for, Democrats have similarly been pushing in an anti-federal direction. Vehement opposition to the Trump administration has meant that liberal state coalitions have become more frequent in recent years; in response to administration attempts to limit state authority over CO₂ vehicle emission standards, 23 states led by California have sued the federal government. Of these, 15 are Democratic ‘one-party states’, by which the governorship and both state houses are controlled

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North America by a single party. The number of multi-state lawsuits against the federal government is increasing. During Trump’s first three years in office, there were 103 such lawsuits, 96 of which were filed by Democratic state attorney generals. Compare this to the 76 lawsuits filed in the 8 years of the Bush Jr. presidency and the 78 filed during Obama’s entire time in office. This shows a growing appetite for more autonomy in Democrat states and an increasing unwillingness to give up acquired privileges which were previously seen mostly in Republican-controlled states

broader attitude among Democratic governors, who have taken matters into their own hands. To battle the pandemic and share resources, the three aforementioned states alongside Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island and Republican-controlled Massachusetts have already formed an eastern coalition, with California, Oregon and Washington in the west joining forces.

This novel reaction from Democratic states, whose voters traditionally favoured the central government, indicates how much Republicans have successfully delegitimised and undermined federal institutions in Coronavirus has largely confirmed and accelerated the last four decades. Distrust of the federal governthis trend. Early on in the pandemic, states did request ment is now, once again, the status quo. A Biden victhe help of the federal government, and the Trump tory in November might slow down the trend, with Administration did send much-needed personal pro- Democrats more at peace with allowing a friendly adtective equipment. This was seemingly carried out ministration to manage their affairs. Moreover, Biden based on political affinities; states important to Trump’s has pledged he will provide increased revenue to the re-election, such as Florida, got more federal budget, by repealing than they needed, while Democratic 2017 tax cuts. This move “Distrust of the fed- Trump’s stronghold California had to send the might bring new life to govern200 ventilators it received for repairs. ment resource-starved agencies eral government is The Administration issued no federlike the Departments of Energy now, once again, al guidance for when businesses and or Agriculture. However, Biden’s schools should be closed or reopened, campaign plan for dealing with the status quo.” when events ought to be cancelled or coronavirus emphasises working not, or when masks should be worn or with state governments and givnot. ing them significant autonomy over funds, as well as the federal government taking action. His proposed This made it clear the federal government was failing, ‘State and Local Emergency Fund’ specifically provides but when the President wanted to override state au- for mayors and governors using federal money to supthority, he was strongly opposed by both Democrats plement their business loans or jobs programs. and members of his own party. In March, because of the high number of cases registered in these states, Trump One should also consider the bigger picture: powerful announced he was considering imposing a two-week individual states and limited federal government, low quarantine on New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. taxes, and a barely-existing welfare state have been the New York Governor Andrew Cuomo immediately stated norm, not the outlier throughout two and a half centuthat this action would amount to a ‘declaration of war ries of American history. FDR’s “New Deal” and Lyndon on states, a federal declaration of war’ (CNBC), which he Johnson’s “Great Society” were unusual policies enactwould contest in the courts. This, despite the Nation- ed in unusual times. In this sense, the Republicans have al Public Health Service Act of 1944 technically giving been attempting, and have been largely successful, the federal government direct authority to ‘prevent the to return to the status quo ante. Even assuming that spread of communicable diseases (…) from one State a four or even eight-year Biden administration would or possession into any other State or possession’. Trump try to increase the powers of the federal government eventually backed down from his earlier position, after (an unlikely move from what we have seen so far), it negative reactions from both Republicans and Demo- seems far-fetched that this would be enough to fundacrats. When considering the larger picture, it is extraor- mentally alter a long-time tendency within American dinary to see Democrats join their conservative coun- society. In other words, the future seems to belong to terparts in rejecting federal authority in such a forceful the individual states. way. The aggressive rhetoric of Mr Cuomo reflects a 94

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Renewable Energies in the United States: The shift that will take more than a pandemic written by Armand Chateau

Photo: IEA, 2020.

estrictions imposed to slow the spread of Covid-19 have had a dramatic effect on energy consumption. Intentional constraints on economic activity created a supply shock, coupled with a demand shock arising from the impact on consumers’ disposable income and corporate investment activity. The latest data show that the drastic curtailment of global economic activity and mobility during the first quarter of 2020 pushed down global energy demand by 3.8% relative to the first quarter of 2019, wiping off five years of demand growth. Such a decline—which has not been seen for the past 70 years—has led many to hope for a shift in environmental policies. Can this be true? During the pandemic, there has been an unprecedented decrease of CO₂ emissions and a new-found resilience in renewables (see figure 1). Global CO2 emissions were more than 5% lower in Q1 2020 than in the same period in 2019, with an 8% decline in emissions from coal, 4.5% from oil and 2.3% from natural gas. CO2 emissions declined in the regions hardest hit by Covid-19 such as the United States (-9%). This was the lowest level since 2010 and the largest drop ever. Meanwhile, renewable energy has been the most resilient energy source to

Covid-19 lockdown measures, with global use of renewable energy increasing in all sectors by about 1.5% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019 (see figure 2). As a result, renewables almost reached 30% of electricity supply globally and experienced the largest increase, especially in the eastern states of the United States. However, these encouraging signs must be treated with caution for two reasons. First, not all of the declines in demand at the start of 2020 were a result of the response to Covid-19. Secondly, the pandemic may still threaten the renewable energy sector, and the decrease in CO2 emissions does not guarantee lasting reduction. Indeed, the relative resilience of renewables is partly due to external factors, including the continuation of milder than average weather conditions throughout most of the Northern Hemisphere winter which pushed down energy demand. This was particularly evident in the United States, where the majority of the 18% decline in residential and commercial gas consumption can be attributed to a milder winter than in 2019. Renewables receive priority in the grid and are not asked

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North America to adjust their output to match demand. Furthermore, they have been lifted by the additional output of new solar and wind projects completed in 2020, insulating them from the short-term impacts of lower electricity demand. However, the pace of renewable power capacity additions could decline in 2020 as supply chain disruptions and labour restrictions delay construction. In fact, investment is expected to fall by 10% this year, and approvals for new hydropower projects declined to their lowest level of the decade in 2019. This will not be immediately felt but could severely diminish the production of renewable electricity in the long run. Additionally, emissions reduced following economic downturns have historically recovered rapidly as economies regained their footing. As outlined earlier, the drop in CO₂ emissions is strongly linked to the result of a global health crisis. Thus, while the current crisis may have capitalised on positive renewable energy trends, the drop in energy use is likely to be only temporary. Smart and ambitious government policies will be needed to bring about the kind of sustained structural adjustments needed across a full range of sectors to achieve long-term climate goals, to which we now turn. The clean energy sector has already seen a 17% drop in employment. The International Energy Association found that energy investment in the United States in 2020 is set to fall by 25%—a decline greater than some other countries—because of the United States’ exposure to oil and gas. If Congress does not support the maintenance and growth of the clean energy industry in a future stimulus or economic recovery package, the renewable industry could face job losses of up to 50% in some subsectors. However, while the United States has responded with some $3 trillion in stimulus packages, targeted relief went to oil and gas companies while largely dismissing the sector-specific requests of clean energy. A glaring example of this disparate treatment is the administration’s granting of royalty relief to the oil and gas industry, which now holds $744 billion in outstanding bonds and loans while at the same time sending massive bills for retroactive rent to the wind and solar companies amid a global pandemic. This was despite 56% of Americans supporting bolstering the

renewable energy industry in the economic recovery packages. Such policies come after years of the Trump administration undermining renewables. Regulatory actions such as repealing the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) in 2019, economic policies including tariffs on imported solar cells and modules, as well as legislative and fiscal policies and blocking of renewable development on federal lands had seriously challenged the sector pre-Covid-19. It is therefore essential to ensure that any future stimulus packages directly respond to the needs of the clean energy sector. Congress should include features like allowing tax credits to be received as a direct payment, delaying the phasedown of existing renewable energy tax incentives, and improving and expanding the energy efficiency tax credits. Both energy storage and hydrogen - critical emerging technologies for unlocking emissions reductions across energy systems - could become key beneficiaries of stimulus plans, much as solar PV and wind benefitted from boosts during recovery packages after the 2008 financial crisis. Global carbon emissions will fall this year as a result of the major disruptions to travel, trade and economic activity brought about by the pandemic. Yet, this will not be enough to achieve our current goals and commitments, since it comes on the back of an international health crisis and widespread economic trauma. What happens next is crucial for our energy future. Achieving a robust economic recovery without the same kind of rebound in emissions that followed the 2008 global financial crisis, will require governments to take the lead in pursuing structural reductions in emissions. Smart and sustained policies will be paramount in accelerating the development and deployment of a full range of clean energy solutions. This can stimulate job creation and economic development while reducing emissions and fostering further innovation. Ultimately, these decisions are down to the administration, emphasising the importance of the coming US election; this will determine whether the country can recover from five years of anti-sustainable policies.

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CAMPAIGNING UNDER CORONAVIRUS written by Rebecca Visser

ife in America has been upended by Covid-19. Politics has been too. The pandemic has centred this year’s presidential campaign around coronavirus response, putting Trump on the defensive and shifting the narrative dramatically. For some, this created a pressing example of Trump as an unfit leader, playing perfectly into Biden’s argument. The public health emergency further highlights the need for better healthcare – a theme the 2018 House victory already showed was a winning issue for Democrats. However, wild optimism should be tempered; the realities of running make the sunny electoral picture painted significantly more complex. Joe Biden has commendably made strategy decisions in the interest of public health and sees coronavirus as the winning issue, but what it means to be campaigning under coronavirus may yet cost him victory. Practically, field operations and in-person campaigning have been massively disrupted: blockbuster rallies have become a health hazard, and even smaller in-person campaigning or door-knocking carry the risk of transmission. The Biden campaign has taken this into account, with the candidate himself staying in lockdown in spring and making just two trips to battleground states in the whole of July and August. For Democratic advocates, this conveyed Biden’s com-

Photo: Carolyn Kaster, AP, 2020.

North America

mitment to trusting the scientific community and fully understanding the risks of the Covid-19 pandemic. September has seen Biden and recently-nominated running mate Senator Harris ramp up their schedules. Yet, in-person events are still limited. For instance, even when visiting Kenosha in the wake of unrest after a police shooting, the Biden campaign did not advertise the location of his appearance, deliberately preventing crowds from gathering in large numbers. Rather, using funds from record fundraising - including over $310 million in August - the Democratic presidential campaign has focused on virtual events and massive advertising spending especially on TV, including $65 million in battleground states in one September week alone. Most unprecedentedly, rather than run a door-knocking operation, the campaign has chosen to text and call voters in ‘virtual’ door-knocking. Democratic campaign manager O’Malley Dillon argued this is more efficient, and that in August the campaign had had 2.6 million conversations with voters in battleground states. Trump has mostly taken the opposite tactic in brazenly skirting regulations designed to protect Americans against Covid-19, such as by holding a ‘round table’ in September that was a rally in all but name. Such events see little social distancing and even fewer face masks. Although currently being outspent overall in

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North America battleground states, the Trump campaign has main- Secondly, it is unclear whether coronavirus-adapted tained they are pursuing a better strategy with heavy field operations can drive turnout to the same extent online advertising and substantial field spending: as of as traditional methods. Democrats have heavily promid-September, a campaign spokesman claimed it had moted mail-in ballots as they can be completed from 2 million volunteers across 17 states and had knocked home, avoiding the spread of the virus at in-person on over 3.3 million doors in competitive states. polling stations. August analysis showed that DemoThis is potentially problematic because Biden’s cau- cratic voters are far more likely to vote-by-mail, with tious approach cedes the limelight to Trump. The Pres- only 11% of Trump backers suggesting they planned ident has bombastically used the bully pulpit his posi- to do so. The problem is that although safer from a tion affords to host daily coronavirus briefings in the public health perspective, there is a much higher risk spring and continues to make controversial comments of absentee ballots being rejected, especially those of that divert an entire news cycle. first-time mail-in voters who are more susceptible to Arguably, Trump is sabotaging himself and strengthen- making mistakes because they are unfamiliar with the ing Biden’s pitch by presenting the Vice President in so- process; indeed, roughly 500,000 mail-in ballots were ber contrast. The intense partisanship surrounding this rejected in the presidential primaries. As this election election and popular name recognition for both also will see unprecedented levels of inexperienced users might suggest voters’ views on the two are entrenched, of this system and neck-in-neck races in states from meaning that Biden doesn’t need to compete with Arizona to Florida, the possibility of disqualified balTrump for the spotlight to further define himself. How- lots for Biden should be highly concerning. Moreover, ever, his strategy contributes to a political commentators are sharply less direct connection with voters. divided over whether communi“Trump is sabBiden’s empathy helps him connect cating to voters over calls can creotaging himself deeply with individual voters but ate the same level of commitment with a more limited presence on as in-person conversations; Bernie and strengthening the campaign trail, opportunities for Sanders himself stated ‘I think that retail politics are limited. In this, his is something that virtual relationBiden’s pitch” campaign is arguably negating one ships cannot replace’. Turning out of its own greatest strengths. Simivoters will be essential to this eleclarly, personal appearances by cantion, especially if opinions of the didates are a major source of ‘free media’; by not sched- candidates are solidified for the majority of Americans, uling these, his campaign is not receiving this typical as the exceptionally stable Trump approval/disapprovboost. It is further unclear how far online events— al ratings suggest. Therefore, the question of whether used to replace in-person visits—engage voters. One the Democratic strategy can sufficiently secure voters, Democratic county chair in Pennsylvania believes live in comparison to the tried-and-true Trump door-knockstreaming events do not reach all and that “it feels like ing campaign, should add another element of doubt to asymmetric warfare” compared to the immediacy of the massively optimistic forecasts. the Trump campaign. Coupled with limited in-person These warnings may well be too pessimistic, especialfield operations, Democratic operatives from Michigan ly given Biden’s advantageous position in the polls; to Pennsylvania to Florida have raised the alarm about because of favourable Electoral College realities and not feeling enough of a Biden presence. Crucially, this very strong battleground state polling data, respected may generate the feeling of neglect among Rust Belt political statistician Nate Silver gave Biden a 77 in 100 States that Trump took advantage of in 2016. More- chance of winning in mid-September. Nonetheless, it over, while mistakes in 2016 polling practise have been must be noted that there is an underlying bet in Biden’s corrected—in the previous race, Michigan’s electoral campaign strategy, and this carries risks: Democrats are swing was a surprise partially because the last public relying on his loftier campaign message and organising polling there was conducted in September—the 2016 practise convincing the public in the face of traditional phenomenon of ‘silent’ Trump voters who are not rep- political operations and Trump’s barnstorming appeal. resented in polling data is likely to repeat itself. This The outcome of the November election will not only means the Biden campaign’s virtual strategy may be determine the future leadership of the United States— giving them an incomplete picture of their likely sup- and the western world—but also what successful politport. ical campaigns will look like in the future. 98

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by Amalia Hajieva Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 99

Latin America edited by Valeria Sinisi Garcia

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Photo: Paraguayan federal health worker takes part in fumigation to prevent from plague, Paraguay, Jorge Adorno, Reuters, 2020.

Dengue and Covid-19: Climate Change is Setting an Irreversible Epidemiological Pattern written by Mathilde Aupetit

hilst facing the Covid-19 pandemic with all its repercussions, Latin America is exposed to an additional threat: dengue disease. Caused by a mosquito-borne virus, this disease has symptoms similar to those of Covid-19. It has affected more than 23,000 people since 2019, causing more than 1500 deaths in the region. As a result, Latin American countries are currently facing a double epidemic threat, which is responsible for the complete collapse of their healthcare system. The under-reported threat of dengue in the Latin American and Caribbean region is related to another, more well-known phenomenon: climate change. Besides causing major upheavals in weather patterns, including a scarcity of water resources and crops, increasingly frequent heatwaves and other environmental disasters, the climate emergency raises new questions related to the current pandemic. Will climate change cause more epidemics in the years to come? In this regard, Latin America perfectly embodies the link between the two phenomena and exemplifies the challenges we will have to deal with in a post-Covid world. The region can be compared to a continent-wide laboratory, with diagnosed cases of dengue skyrocketing amid the coronavirus health crisis turmoil. Indeed, the region is facing the worst dengue epidemic in its history. In this part of the world alone, more than three million people were affected by the ‘tropical flu’ in 2019. It mainly affects Brazil, with more than two million reported cases, but it has not spared other countries, such as Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador. At this pace, 2020 is shaping up to be worse than 2019, and the dire predictions of the scientific community on the worsening of the climate crisis make the picture even bleaker. The melting of the cryosphere, the Earth’s solid surface, and the rise in temperatures increase the risk of our exposure to pathogens, but

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Latin America so do the destruction of biodiversity and deforestation. This raises fears that the Covid-19 pandemic is only one of the firsts to come if the degradation of the environment does not cease. As epidemics are one of the many health risks associated with rising global temperatures, they are likely to spread on a much vaster scale, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to surge. Another risk linked to climate change is the spread of viruses to new geographical areas due to the migration of certain species potentially carrying human pathogens. A study, published in the scientific journal PLoS this year, showed that the rise in global temperatures was likely to modify the behaviour of certain mosquitoes of the Aedes family, including Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (also known as the tiger mosquito), which are the main vectors of dengue, yellow fever, Zika virus infection and chikungunya. Rising temperatures could encourage these insects to move further north, as far as Alaska, and may have an equally destructive effect on healthcare systems worldwide.

and economy if global warming is not acknowledged and tackled.

With the hypothesis that new pandemics are going to emerge, we must take lessons from how the Covid-19 crisis has arisen and been dealt with. According to a review published by the WHO, for viruses carried by mosquitoes, ‘the primary factor of dissemination is the introduction of the species somewhere. If there was no globalization, world-wide trade, obviously there wouldn’t be these problems. We also live more in cities and mosquitoes adapt to these environments’. For instance, we use artificial containers (flower pots, water trays, gutters, refillable cans, garbage cans, etc.) which allow mosquitoes to lay their eggs in a humid environment favourable to their development, and we, the hosts, are constantly moving. Our mobility and the idea of development itself, are directly responsible for mosquitoes’ propagation around the world and the latter is also an immediate factor of climate change. Accelerated levels of “New viruses like globalisation and climate change will Covid-19 can perhaps exacerbate further dengue epidemics, not only in Latin America directly emerge” but worldwide.

According to the same study, the number of Europeans exposed to viruses transmitted by mosquitoes of the Aedes family could double by the end of the century. Another study on the subject estimated that 2.4 billion people would be exposed to the tiger mosquito by 2050, especially in France, Ireland, southern Great Britain, in the north-west of the Iberian peninsula, in the east of the United States and China. The area of distribution of this mosquito could, however, decrease in Central Africa, southern Europe, South Asia and northern South America, due to the climate becoming hot and dry. This shows that the dengue outburst faced by Latin America at the moment, despite seeming far from the European reality, is likely to later affect Europe and other regions which have been relatively immune. Therefore, while thinking about living in a post-Covid world, it is necessary to rethink the ways in which we must adapt to global warming. How can we prevent the climate crisis from reaching the point of no return? In regards to the coronavirus outburst and the extreme difficulties encountered by the healthcare systems, we are faced with the necessity to take into account the protection of the environment in any future political decision. Crucial issues such as our health, our vulnerability in a post-Covid world, and socio-economic inequalities are intimately linked to climate change. New viruses like Covid-19 can directly emerge and undermine both our healthcare systems

The reduction of healthcare services is also a major cause of the rise of epidemics such as Covid-19 or dengue. European researchers estimate that, beyond global warming which contributes to increasing the distribution area of mosquitoes, the decrease in public services responsible for their control will have significant effects on human health in the future. For instance, in Honduras, the health system is already strained by dengue, and the country has set out to build hospitals to deal with the double epidemic. More than 10,000 dengue patients have been hospitalised in Honduras since the start of the year. The 2019 death toll was 180 people, and around thirty public hospitals were overwhelmed by the influx of some 113,000 patients. “We must not lower our guard against dengue fever, even if the coronavirus is here and is affecting the population,” warned Gustavo Urbina, a specialist in the Honduran ministry of health. The ability to set up proper infrastructures and sanitation facilities also play a major role in our abilities to tackle mosquito-borne diseases like dengue. For instance, in Brazil, the survival and spread of mosquitoes of the genus Aedes are amplified by poor sanitation. Furthermore, a common practice in Latin America of storing water in containers forms also the perfect breeding

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site. Mosquitoes use them to lay eggs and reproduce, creating increased vector densities and virus transmission. The NGO Human Right Watch concludes that, without sanitation support and communication with the population, epidemics will only continue, in scale and severity. As a result, throughout Latin America, specialised patrols roam the neighbourhoods to ensure residents avoid mosquito breeding grounds, also emptying water from all possible receptacles. Latin America is therefore facing a multi-epidemic crisis and exemplifies the challenges of coping with the new threats these new diseases bring. One can assume that what Latin America has been facing in the past few months is not going to remain an isolated case in the near future. Even if our healthcare systems radically improve, the threat of multiple-epidemics related to global warming goes beyond the Latin American bor-

ders. The main concern is global warming itself. A problem that, in its very denomination, is hugely negated by the West, often blaming developing countries and making them directly responsible for gas emissions as newly industrialised countries. Most Latin American countries are still labelled as developing, bearing the cost of Western denial. This goes hand in hand with a refusal of Western and other highly industrial countries to lower their environmental impact and acknowledge the role played by global warming in politics, healthcare, economics and so forth. Indeed, it can be said that not only does global warming play a major role in the propagation of global epidemics, but there is also a deep Westerncentrism over the notion of global warming itself, highlighted by the Covid-19 crisis. This notion must be demystified and dismantled if we are to find appropriate and collective solutions to tackle the climate crisis before it is too late.

Photo: COVID-19 patients in a field hospital inside a gym in Santo Andre, Sao Paulo, Andre Penner, AP Photo, 2020.

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Latin America

Filling the ‘Educational Gap’: How the Covid Crisis Exposed the Region’s Shortcomings in the Sector written by Ana Canto Mira Photo: Unicef, UNI328540, Volpe,2020.

here is no doubt that Covid-19 has dramatically impacted many sectors and regions across the globe. No matter how ‘developed’ a country is, this unprecedented health crisis has challenged the dynamics of what was considered normal and has proved that nothing we deem as such can be taken for granted. As with every crisis, it is always the poorest who suffer the brunt of the consequences, which is the case for Latin America’s most impoverished communities. The region, which was already struggling to abandon its label as a ‘developing’ country, is now facing several additional difficulties that span across different sectors. Besides the already vastly-covered financial and public health crisis, fields like education have been given less coverage despite their importance in the building of a resilient community. As the Covid-19 crisis brings more uncertainty than ever before, education can and should be a powerful tool in the hands of political elites to empower the younger generations and steer countries’ futures in the right direction. Although the pandemic has exacerbated the already existing challenges in the region - such as unemployment, inequality or political instability - this unique moment in history is a chance to redesign the education system at its very core by implementing long-term policies. However, this becomes a difficult task when 171 million children are out of school. At least one in three people in Latin America now live in poverty. The income gap between different groups in society results in what is known as the ‘educational gap.’ While Latin America has made several improvements in this sector, there are still some important factors that impede universal and equal access to education: poverty, quality of schools and educational policies themselves. The Harvard Review of Latin America explains that “in order to reduce poverty in Latin America, we must first understand the simultaneous processes of how education reproduces poverty and how education fosters opportunities to learn and of social mobility for the poor.” The pandemic has

undoubtedly widened this gap. New challenges in the educational sector have emerged, which, if ignored by governments, could cause irreversible repercussions. Failure to resolve these challenges and implement effective policies that adapt to the particular situation of the region could make it harder to fill the ‘educational gap’ and reduce poverty and social inequality. Before Covid-19, the educational experience was going through a quick process of digitalisation. This digital revolution has had its objectors and supporters. In addition to some preferring the ‘real experience’, others also argue that the prolonged exposure to screen lights could cause long-term damage to the eye-sight. Besides these debates revolving around personal or professional preferences, the reality for many families and communities has been that, during lockdown measures, digital learning tools have been the only means for children to keep on receiving an education. Even though the digital experience differs from one country to the next, there are some problems which can be found throughout the whole region. About half of all households in Latin America do not have access to the Internet. Among the ones that do, many do not own one computer per person in the family, meaning that households with more than one child are forced to share it for their online lessons and assignments, greatly limiting the potential that online educational experience has. Those most affected by the indefinite break from formal in-person education are more likely to drop out of school or to fall behind in the ‘new normal’. As outlined above, access to the Internet and electronic devices are now essential for distance learning, although some alternatives have been offered to certain communities. For example, Colombia’s strategy combines online and offline learning. For those who do have access to the internet, the government has launched a new learning platform called ‘aprender digital’ (digital learning). Educational programmes are be-

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ing broadcasted in both Public Radio and TV, for those cause, aside from the fact that they’re not trained to be families that can’t access the internet. However, the teachers, most parents do not have the time to commit reality is that those students that do not have access to such a crucial role. In poor communities in rural Latin to the internet still find themselves at a disadvantage. America, the problem is more prominent. Not only are It is precisely the communities that don’t have access parents busy working very long hours, but also their to the Internet - generally, those living in rural areas level of education and IT skills are not advanced enough and on lower-income than the average - which found to help their children with their learning. For instance, themselves in the lowest percentile of school perfor- in Argentina “only two out of five adults living with primance and with the highest rates of school-dropping mary school students in the poorest decile of the inbefore the pandemic. An IFAD (International Fund for come distribution have a secondary degree and one Agricultural Development) paper on ‘the rural youth out of five used a computer in the last three months.” situation’ showed that “rural youth have higher illit- The role of a teacher is essential in this semi-permanent eracy rates, lower average years of education, fewer transition to online learning. However, some teachers opportunities to complete secondary education and are less qualified than others for what the ‘new normal’ limited access to a university education compared with requires. Firstly, online platforms are not sophisticated urban youth.” Providing the necessary technological enough for complete online learning. Secondly, in the tools to these communities will result in an improve- most impoverished areas, added to limited IT skills, ment in their quality of life. Not only will having access the quality of teachers’ education is often not optimal. to the web make education during Covid-19 times These factors contribute to making the student-teachmore accessible for them, but this can also be a longer interaction difficult and less frequent. Failure to improve the teacher-student comterm solution to the problems that munication system may derive in rural Latin America faces. Besides the “households will high rates of school abandonment lack of material resources to guaras a consequence of the ‘efecto antee a good education to children, likely feel the need to padres’ and the intergenerationstate schools in deprived areas of take their older chilal transmission of human capital many Latin American countries also which is particularly high in Latin lack the human and physical capital dren out of school” America. The latter relates to the to offer their students a good educacircumstance in which parents tion, exacerbating the ‘educational who have not received education gap.’ or have a limited one, do not usually consider it to be In this regard, the financial crisis that Covid-19 has as meaningful as it is. Furthermore, these parents pass caused will further strain the sector: funding is ex- on less knowledge, less cognitive skills and can conpected to be reduced and households will experience tribute to overall worse health for their children. Thus, increased financial struggles. As a consequence, the their children can also be less encouraged to continue poorest households will likely feel the need to take studying, especially in highly distressing situations, like their older children out of school for them to contrib- the current pandemic. Hence, the government has to ute to the family income with informal work. Distanced invest not only in IT infrastructure but also in teacher and flexible learning could be a fix for this, especially development training and other publicly accessible for those over the legal age of schooling who are more educational support figures like psychologists and likely to feel forced to abandon school. Although not pedagogues to ensure more children stay in education ideal nor feasible in all cases, it requires less infrastruc- for longer. ture than changing the whole dynamics of poverty in Latin America. Moreover, having continuity in their ed- This unique time in history requires strong and concise ucation will allow children and teenagers to graduate leadership across every sector, and education cannot from high school and have greater access to higher ed- be an exception. Latin American countries’ history has ucation, in turn improving their chances to overcome often been characterised by unequal social relations poverty. Although the measures mentioned above are and great economic disparity, but the pandemic has necessary to bridge the gap, several factors need to be widened the already huge gap. Thus, political leaders taken into account in order to make the transition to and education policymakers must take notice of the digital education viable and practical. In the new nor- fatal consequence that an unequal education can have mal, parents are the new teachers, or at least they are in the building of a resilient community in a post-Covid expected to be. Ana Pais from the BBC refers to this world. They must take action to ensure that education phenomenon as the ‘efecto padres’ (the parent effect). is not a problem but a tool to reinforce the welfare of This situation can be problematic for most families be- their countries, starting with the younger generations. Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 105

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A Nation Betrayed:

What Bolsonaro’s Response to Covid-19 Means for the Future of Brazil’s Leadership written by Tommy O’Donnell

Photo: Marcos Correa, Palacio Planalto, dpa, 2020.

The United Kingdom’s government in the times of Covid-19 has been highly criticised for its response to the pandemic. A nation with one of the world’s best healthcare infrastructures having the third-highest coronavirus death count has indelibly undermined the current Conservative government’s reputation. However, if we look to even harder hit countries, we see one nation in particular with a leadership that has not managed to stand the test: Jair Bolsonaro’s Brasil.

now lies at 55%. The president’s complete disregard of the virus and his refusal to act has angered Brazilians to the point where a majority of voters now believe his handling of this crisis is unacceptable. The present-day outrage is obvious, but how, or if at all, this will affect the election in two years time is still to be seen. Before we question the future of Brazil’s leadership, it is crucial to understand how Bolsonaro landed himself in the position he is in now. A combination of economic recession, the biggest party finance corruption scandal in modern history, presidential impeachment and a wave of military rule-era nostalgia made way for a Bolsonaro-shaped political storm to sweep into Brasilia. Brazil fell victim to the classic anti-establishment rhetoric that has been seen building all over the world for the last five to ten years; the same rhetoric that has been adopted by leaders who now govern the countries with the highest death counts.

Many political commentators and academics have speculated as to why Bolsonaro, the far-right political outsider, was elected in the first place. Only two years away from the next Brazilian presidential election, this de facto referendum is at the forefront of keen political Brazilian minds. The coronavirus pandemic, however, has entirely shifted the narrative around the controversial president; when looking at Bolsonaro’s approval ratings at the beginning of the pandemic compared to now, it’s like shooting down a rollercoaster with an extremely sharp decline. On March 16th, a poll conducted by Brazilian polling firms XP and Ipespe showed that only 18% of citizens perceived Bolsonaro’s handling of Covid-19 as ‘bad’ or ‘terrible’. Compare that to June 9th, the latest poll of the same nature, that figure

First, we ought to consider how long the ‘Corona effect’, encompassing both the virus, the surrounding tragedy and the political debris it leaves in its wake, will last. It is difficult to predict how the world will look in two years, but in the case of Brazil, it may not look any different to how it does now. As of August 6th 2020,

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there are a confirmed 2.9 million cases in the country and almost 100,000 deaths from Covid-19. Whilst many Asian and European countries live in fear of a second spike, Brazil lives in fear that it will not make it past the first spike any time soon. Based on the current trends, it seems that Brazil’s fight with coronavirus will continue into 2021, and possibly even 2022, suggesting that the Brazilian leader’s handling of the crisis could be at the forefront of voters’ minds come election season. When evaluating Bolsonaro’s current political standing, it is important to identify the two sides of his base; the rich and the poor. Evidence found in the last few months shows that the President’s support is dwindling amongst his richer and highly educated supporters from 2018. Additionally, his leadership has been repeatedly undermined by the nation’s Congress which passed a Universal Basic Income bill in opposition to the government’s plan - a plan which unified the opposition parties. Within the government itself, Bolsonaro has opened fire against his own ministers, making it safe to say that the leader’s image is currently at an all-time low.

Latin America ever, in the case of Bolsonaro’s leadership, Brazilians were not afforded this ‘luxury’. As a result, the cliché of working-class people being more likely to support right-wing populist candidates, like Trump, Bolsonaro and Johnson, could no longer be viable. When the person elected to restore faith in the working class is the very man depriving them of life’s necessities, the mirage of the ‘champion for the working class’ no longer holds. Right now the future is not looking bright for Jair Bolsonaro. Nonetheless, predicting the future of modern-day political events two years away is practically impossible. There is still a sizable possibility that Bolsonaro is re-elected to a second term in office, but how can he recover from this Covid-sized faux pas? Well, he has already started. After realising the error of his ways, the federal government is now offering low-paid workers a monthly ration of 600 reais, which is roughly equivalent to £82. The effect of this decision is evident in the president’s recent approval rating, which shows his greatest gains in the poorer and more vulnerable parts of Brazil, with a general positive swing for Bolsonaro.

The pandemic’s destrucThe perfect storm of intion of everyday life has Photo: A. Coelho, Getty Images, 2020. action, the unification affected almost everyone in one way or another and the effects are multiplied in of the opposition and his refusal to help the most a region characterized by some of the most unequal so- vulnerable, could suggest that Bolsonaro has a very cial relations in the world. Many working-class or impov- slim chance of retaining the presidential sash come erished families in Latin America rely on informal jobs 1st January 2023. And yet, to consider the pandemic to earn a living, and the effects of full-scale lockdowns as the only factor in this choice would be naïve. The meant that many were in a much worse financial posi- political trauma inflicted upon Brazilians over the tion than before the pandemic. For example, families that last decade is not easily could not rely on a steady income instead relied on infor- forgotten. They have not forgotten Lula or Dilma or mal work, including cleaning, taxi-driving and babysit- Petrobras or Lava Jato; the very reasons for Bolsonting, just to name a few. Due to the nature of a contagious aro holding the office he currently does. The quesvirulent disease, these cash-in-hand, quick-pay jobs were tion is whether the devastating effects of a global no longer safe or feasible.Therefore, a nearly impossible pandemic, made even more devastating by an inchoice presents itself between having a shortage of ineffective government, are enough to temporarily come, and thus essential goods, or to be at risk of catch- erase the memory of a nation betrayed. ing Covid-19. This is where one expects the government to interfere and make life liveable for its citizens. How-

Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 107

Book Recommendation

Our Book List

edited by Nicoló Vertecchi & India Horner

In this new section, we are introducing our choice of the best books within the respective category. We hope they are just as inspiring and interesting to you, as they are for us!

Economics

Education

Leadership

Basic Income and Sovereign Money by Geoff Crocker

Airhead by Emily Maitlis

The Pedagogy of the Opressed by Paulo Freire

In the wake of a world-wide economic recession and glitches in the economic stability of high-income countries, the book helps us explore possibilities for the future: one of which is the provision of a universal basic income. Whether you agree or not, the book opens up a space for debates on the issue.

Maitlis gives us a preview behind the scenes of the journalist world, from interviews with the Dalai Lama to Bill Clinton. A highly enjoyable read, we are flung into the fast-paced world of a journalist. A must-read for those wanting the inside scoop.

The book offers a critical look to the future of education and gives a voice to the voiceless. Out of his own experience in teaching illiterate students in Brazil, the author explores the possibilities for a fairer and more accessible form of education, that allows every human being to “develop a sense of self and fulfil the right to be heard”.

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Book Recommendation

Megatech: Technology in 2050 by Daniel Franklin This book predicts the vast changes that we are expected to deal with as technology continues to evolve at an alarmingly fast rate. Considering the impacts on jobs and other spheres of society, it is a perfect read to engage and understand the future world.

Digital Revolution

Gender

Climate

Girl, Woman, Other by Bernadine Evaristo

This Changes Everything by Naomi Klein

A truly captivating set of stories about being a woman in Britain. Evaristo touches upon themes of family, love and friendship all whilst remaining critical of modern British society and the topic of race through the ages.

This book is essential to understanding and confronting the challenge of climate change in the 21st century. Exploring the consequences of capitalism on the world, Klein explores the threats it presents against our society and our environment.

Geo-Politics 10 Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World by Fareed Zakaria In the midst of uncertainty, the book foresees the fundamental changes that will occur in the international system after the pandemic, from the acceleration of natural and biological risks, to the future of globalization, and encourages us to uphold our future.

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Artwork: Silhouettes Violettes by Clara Maire, 2020.

Bibliography

Bibliography Ordered after Articles listed in the Magazine Disclaimer: The KCL Politics Society does not claim to own any copyright on the pictures. Unless otherwise stated, all images are licensed as public domain. The opinions and views in this journal belong to the authors and are independent from the Department of Political Economy and the KCL Politics Society.

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Bibliography Briefing Contributor: Beatrice Catena The new evil: political advancement United Nations, International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, (1967), Art. 3-4. Jamie Ducharme, “Covid- 19 is making America’s Loneliness Epidemic Even Worse”, The Time, 2020, https://time.com/5833681/loneliness-covid-19/ F.Q., “Coronavirus, Conte: “Lockdown grande sacrificio, ma è l’unica strada. Ora non si può dire quando avrà fine. Forse non siamo stati sempre perfetti, ma abbiamo agito al meglio della nostra conoscenza”. Apr 2020, Il Fatto Quotidiano, https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2020/04/05/coronavirus-conte-lockdown-grande-sacrificio-ma-e-lunica-strada-ora-non-sipuo-dire-quando-avra-fine-forse-non-siamo-stati-sempre-perfetti-maabbiamo-agito-al-meglio-della-nostra-conoscenza/5760761/# George Parker, Jim Pickard, and Laura Hughes, “UK’s chief scientific adviser defends ‘herd immunity’ strategy for coronavirus”, Financial Times, March 2020, https://time.com/5833681/loneliness-covid-19/ Jacqueline Howard and Veronica Stracqualursi, “Fauci warns of ‘anti science bias’ being a problem in the US”, CNN, June 2020, https://edition. cnn.com/2020/06/18/politics/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-anti-science-bias/index.html Contributor: Lin Derz Changes to the sports industry in a post-Covid World Pictures: https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/dumoulin-joins-amstel-gold-racevirtual-ride-on-bkool/ https://eu.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2020/07/25/nba-disney-bubble-players-team-reaction-virtual-fans/5511468002/ ESPN, NBA Attendance Report, 2020 http://www.espn.com/nba/attendance Russell Fuller, “US Open to be held behind closed doors after New York governor gives go-ahead”, BBC, June 2020, https://www.bbc.com/sport/ tennis/53070667 James Olly, “Premier League games with no fans: How players, coaches cope with the silence”, ESPN, June 30 2020, https://www.espn.com/soccer/english-premier-league/story/4122080/premier-league-games-withno-fans-how-playerscoaches-cope-with-the-silence Amir Somoggi, “CORONAVIRUS’ ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE SPORTS INDUSTRY”, Sports Venue, https://sportsvenuebusiness.com/index. php/2020/03/19/coronavirus-economic-impact-on-the-sports-industry/ EPSI. “Position paper on the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the sport sector”, https://epsi.eu/news/position-paper-on-the-impact-of-the-covid-19-crisis-on-the-sport-sector/ Deloitte, “Understanding the impact of Covid-19 on the sports industry”, May 7 2020, https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/sports-businessgroup/articles/understanding-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-the-sports-industry.html Steven Impey, “Amazon-owned platform seeking to add to live sports rights portfolio”, July 22 2020 https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/ twitch-sports-amazon-streaming-real-madrid-arsenal-juventus-psg Richard Martin, “Real Madrid braced for restrained title celebrations”, Reuters, July 15 2020, https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-soccer-spain-mad-celebration/real-madrid-braced-for-restrained-title-celebrations-idUKKCN24G1U8 Andrew Walker and Niall Skelton, “Covid-19 Impact on sport”, Lexology, June 22 2020, https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=fbfa4d41 -62ac-40bd-8ee1-d96e30c5d991

NHS, “Exercise”, 8 October 2019, https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/exercise/ UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “The impact of COVID-19 on sport, physical activity and well-being and its effects on social development”, May 15 2020 https://www.un.org/development/desa/ dspd/2020/05/covid-19-sport/ NHS, “Fitness Studio exercise video”, 6 August 2019 https://www.nhs.uk/ conditions/nhs-fitness-studio/ Tonya Garcia, “Nike could come out of the coronavirus in a postion of strength, UBS says”, Market Watch, March 26 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nike-could-come-out-of-the-coronavirus-in-a-positionof-strength-ubs-says-2020-03-25?mod=article_inline Alex Hern, “Almost 50% of the world is online. What about the other 50%?”, The Guardian, 18 October 2018 https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/oct/18/almost-50-of-the-world-is-online-what-about-the-other-50 Contributor: Isabelle Bienfait As COVID-19 is changing the world, what happens to global migration? United Nations. “The number of international migrants reaches 272 million continuing an upward trend in all world regions, says UN”, https:// www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/international-migrant-stock-2019.html OHCHR. “Malaysia / COVID-19: Stop Crackdown on Migrants, Journalists and Civil Society” – UN Rights Experts. OHCHR. May 21st, 2020. https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=25900&LangID=E Reuters U.K. “Portugal To Treat Migrants As Residents During Coronavirus Crisis”. March 28th, 2020. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-portugal-idUKKBN21F0MC D’Ignoti, Stefania. “Italy’s coronavirus amnesty: Migrant rights or economic self-interest?” The New Humanitarian. May 25th, 2020. https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/feature/2020/05/25/Italy-coronavirus-migrant-labour Amnesty International. D’Ignoti, Stefania. “Italy’s coronavirus amnesty: Migrant rights or economic self-interest?” The New Humanitarian. May 25th, 2020. https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/feature/2020/05/25/Italy-coronavirus-migrant-labour United Nations. “Policy Brief: COVID-19 and People on the Move”. June 2020. https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_policy_brief_on_ people_on_the_move.pdf The World Bank. “Record High Remittances Sent Globally in 2018”. April 18th, 2019. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2019/04/08/record-high-remittances-sent-globally-in-2018 The World Bank. United Nations. “Policy Brief: COVID-19 and People on the Move”. June 2020. https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_policy_brief_on_people_ on_the_move.pdf Reidy, Eric. “Coronavirus: A window of opportunity for action on migration?” The New Humanitarian. June 10th, 2020. https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2020/06/10/coronavirus-migration-policies Knowledge @ Wharton. “The Post-COVID-19 World Will Be Less Global and Less Urban”. The University of Pennsylvania. May 13th, 2020. https:// knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/post-covid-19-world-will-lessglobal-less-urban/ xv Ibid. Gladstone, Rick. “How the Cold War Between China and the U.S. Is Intensifying”. The New York Times. July 22nd, 2020. https://www.nytimes. com/2020/07/22/world/asia/us-china-cold-war.html

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Harari, Yuval Noah. “Yuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus”. Financial Times. March 20th, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/19d903086858-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75 Yayboke, Erol. “Five Ways COVID-19 Is Changing Global Migration”. Center for Strategic & International Studies. March 25th, 2020. https://www.csis. org/analysis/five-ways-covid-19-changing-global-migration Andreou, Aggelos. “Europe’s Far-Right Exploits COVID-19 for Anti-Refugee Propaganda”. Balkan Insight. June 4th, 2020. https://balkaninsight. com/2020/06/04/europes-far-right-exploits-covid-19-for-anti-refugeepropaganda/#gsc.tab=0 Harari, Yuval Noah. “Yuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus”. Financial Times. March 20th, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/19d903086858-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75 United Nations. “Policy Brief: COVID-19 and People on the Move”. June 2020. https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_policy_brief_on_people_ on_the_move.pdf Pictures: https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news/2020/04/28/EU-migrants-Libya-Mediterranean-NGO-rescues-coronavirus&gt https://balkaninsight.com/2020/06/04/europes-far-right-exploits-covid19-for-anti-refugee-propaganda/#gsc.tab=0 https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2020/08/05/missing-migrants-Libya-forced-returns-Mediterranean International Relations Contributor: Josephine Münch and Benjamin Smith The Covid-19 Shock Doctrine Keohane, Robert O, and Joseph S Nye. 2001. Power and Interdependence. New York: Longman. Ikenberry, G. John, and L. Weiss. 1999. “The Myth of the Powerless State.” Foreign Affairs 78 (2): 140. https://doi.org/10.2307/20049220. Arshworth, M. 2020. “Bloomberg - Are You a Robot?” Www.Bloomberg. Com. February 26, 2020. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-26/germany-s-infamous-black-zero-budget-rule-may-begone-forever. Masters, J. 2020. “Coronavirus: How Are Countries Responding to the Economic Crisis?” Council on Foreign Relations. May 4, 2020. https://www.cfr. org/backgrounder/coronavirus-how-are-countries-responding-economic-crisis. Burchard, Hans von der. 2020. “EU Leaders Agree on €1.82T Budget and Coronavirus Recovery Package.” POLITICO. July 21, 2020. https://www. politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-reach-deal-on-coronavirus-recovery-fund/. Apelblat. 2020. “Frugal Five Delay Agreement on EU Recovery Plan.” The Brussels Times. July 20, 2020. https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/ eu-affairs/122433/frugal-five-delays-agreement-on-eu-recovery-plan/. Lee-Six, Edward, and Véronique Samson. 2020. “Emmanuel Macron’s Shock Doctrine.” Jacobinmag.Com. March 25, 2020. https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/03/emmanuel-macron-covid-19-crisis-coronavirus. Duffy, Joe. 2020. “To Defeat Coronavirus Disaster Capitalism, We Need a Socialist Shock Doctrine.” Novara Media. June 12, 2020. https://novaramedia.com/2020/06/12/to-defeat-coronavirus-disaster-capitalism-we-need-a-socialist-shock-doctrine/. Pipes, Sally. 2020. “COVID-19 Reveals The Power Of Deregulation.” Forbes. June 8, 2020. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sallypipes/2020/06/08/covid-19-reveals-the-power-of-deregulation/. Abdulmalik, Salma. 2020. “The Dangers of Disaster Capitalism during Virus Crisis.” Arab News. June 30, 2020. https://www.arabnews.com/ node/1697766. Nohara, Yoshiaki, toru Fujioka, and Emi Urabe. 2020. “Bloomberg Are You a Robot?” Www.Bloomberg.Com. April 7, 2020. https://www.

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ing-for-orders-during-the-covid-19-crisis/#6a1fcf1d5ccc O’Connor, Sarah. Dark factories: labour exploitation in Britain’s garment industry, 17 May 2018, Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/ e427327e-5892-11e8-b8b2-d6ceb45fa9d0 GMB Union. ASOS warehouse branded ‘cradle of disease’ by terrified workers, 31 March 2020, GMB.org.uk, https://www.gmb.org.uk/news/ asos-warehouse-branded-cradle-disease-terrified-workers Bland, Archie and Kelly, Annie. Boohoo booms as Leicester garment factories are linked to lockdown, 4 July 2020, The Guardian: https://www. theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/04/boohoo-booms-leicester-garment-factories-linked-lockdown Davies, Rob and Kelly, Annie. More than £1bn wiped off Boohoo value as it investigates Leicester factory, 6 July 2020, The Guardian: https://www. theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/06/boohoo-leicester-factory-conditions-covid-19 Hall, Harriet. Coronavirus exposed the truth about the fashion industry. And it’s more complicated than you’d think, 7 April 2020, The Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-fashion-burberry-louis-vuitton-prada-chanel-versace-a9453306.html Labour behind the Label. Brands must urgently take steps to minimise impact of the coronavirus on garment workers’ health and livelihoods, labourbehindthelabel.org: https://labourbehindthelabel.org/brands-musturgently-take-steps-to-minimise-impact-of-the-coronavirus-on-garmentworkers-health-and-livelihoods/ Warden, Josie. 4 WAYS COVID-19 WILL CHANGE THE FASHION INDUSTRY, 28 May 2020, The RSA: https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/rsa-blogs/2020/05/fashion-change-Covid Contributor Caroline Rayner BLACK LIVES MATTER: THE POWER OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN PROTEST Retrieved from https://www.change.org/p/oriel-college-rhodes-must-fall2-0-oriel-college-to-take-down-the-cecil-rhodes-statue Elfrink, T. (2020, June 15). Britons toppled an enslaver’s statue. A guerrilla artist replaced it with a Black Lives Matter protester. Retrieved from The Washington Post: h t t p s : / / w w w. w a s h i n g t o n p o s t . c o m / n a t i o n / 2 0 2 0 / 0 7 / 1 5 / c o l ston-slave-trader-statue-bristol/ How statues are falling around the world. (2020, June 24). Retrieved from The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/us/confederate-statues-photos.html Hu, J. (2020, August 3). The Second Act of Social-Media Activism. Retrieved from The New Yorker: https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/the-second-act-of-social-media-activism Miller, C., &amp; Grubb, S. (2020, Juin 12). Bristol has spoken - and most people are glad the Colston statue was pulled down. Retrieved from Bristol Post: https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/bristol-spokenmost-people-glad-4217554 Nakhaie, R., &amp; Nakhaie, F. (2020, July 5). Black Lives Matter movement finds new urgency and allies because of COVID-19. Retrieved from The Conversation: https://theconversation.com/black-lives-matter-movement-finds-new-urgency-and-allies-because-of-covid-19-141500 News, B. (2020, June 12). Calls to remove &#39;racist&#39; Gandhi statue in Leicester. Retrieved from BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53025407 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/technology/social-media-protests. html Contributor Masha Trosheva HOLDING THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABLE TO THEIR CLIMATE CRISIS PROMISES AFTER COVID-19

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Harrabin, Roger. “Extra £14bn needed a year for climate, report says” BBC News, 29 June, 2020. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53214997 Harrabin, Roger. “Coronavirus will transform UK work and travel, says AA” BBC News, 3 April, 2020. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52137968 Le Quéré, Corrine. Jackson, Robert B. Jones, Matthew. Smith, Adam J.P. Abernethy, Sam. et al. “Temporary reduction in global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement” Nature Climate Change, 19 May, 2020. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x Shepheard, Marcus. “UK net zero target” Institute for Government, 20 April, 2020. https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/net-zero-target COVID-19 can be an historic turning point in tackling the global climate crisis” Committee on Climate Change, 25 June, 2020. https://www.theccc. org.uk/2020/06/25/covid-19-can-be-an-historic-turning-point-in-tackling-theglobal-climate-crisis/ https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-extremes Brugge, R. “Hot spell August 1990” Met Office, 30 October, 2012. https:// www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/ weather/learnabout/uk-past-events/interesting/1990/hot-spell-august-1990---met-office.pdf Thunberg, Gretta. Neubauer, Luisa. De Wever, Anuna. Charlier, Adélaïde. “After two years of school strikes, the world is still in a state of climate crisis denial” The Guardian, 19 August, 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/ commentisfree/2020/aug/19/climate-crisis-leaders-greta-thunberg “Climate emergency declarations in 1,767 jurisdictions and local governments cover 820 million citizens” Climate Emergency Declaration, 26 August, 2020. https://climateemergencydeclaration.org/climate-emergency-declarations-cover-15-million-citizens/ Gabbatiss, Josh. “Coronavirus: green recovery ‘could prevent 0.3C’ of warming by 2050” Carbon Brief, 7 August, 2020. https://www.carbonbrief.org/ coronavirus-green-recovery-could-prevent-0-3c-of-warming-by-2050 “IEA offers world governments a Sustainable Recovery Plan to boost economic growth, create millions of jobs and put emissions into structural decline” IEA, 18 June, 2020. https://www.iea.org/news/iea-offers-worldgovernments-a-sustainable-recovery-plan-to-boost-economic-growthcreate-millions-of-jobs-and-put-emissions-into-structural-decline Strauss, Delphine. “UK sheds nearly 750,000 jobs during coronavirus crisis” The Financial Times, 11 August, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/c8ef84bf-0539-4281-b353-d5b840d10b5e Europe Contributor: Manfredi Pozzoli Three Versions of Populism Amaro, Silvia. “Italy’s Anti-Immigration Lega Party Enjoys EU Election Triumph.” CNBC. Accessed August 18, 2020: https://www.cnbc. com/2019/05/27/italy-european-election-results.html Editorial Board. “Il Sondaggio Su Giorgia Meloni che ‘Ruba’ Voti a Lega, Forza Italia e M5S.” Nextquotidiano.it. Accessed August 18, 2020: https:// www.nextquotidiano.it/sondaggi-politici-giorgia-meloni-che-ruba-voti-alega-forza-italia-e-m5s/ Editorial Board. “No Longer a Figurehead.” The Economist, June 25, 2020. Genah, Gabriele. “Salvini Si Paragona a Berlinguer:«La Lega ha Ereditato le Battaglie del PCI».” Corriere della Sera. Accessed August 20, 2020: https:// www.corriere.it/video-articoli/2020/07/09/salvini-come-berlinguer-la-lega-ha-ereditato-battaglie-pci/443e7e0a-c1e7-11ea-9a71-56106a53bf80.

Bibliography shtml https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AtOw-xyMo8&list=LLpOxdQxG2YKlswnbAuCTnGA&index=637 Giuffrida, Angela. “Guy Verhofstadt Calls Italian PM ‘Puppet’ in Angry Exchange.” The Guardian. Accessed August 19, 2020: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/13/mep-guy-verhofstadt-calls-italian-premier-giuseppe-conte-puppet-sparking-angry-exchange “Il Sondaggio Politico di Lunedì 3 Agosto.” TG La7. Accessed August 18, 2020: https://tg.la7.it/sondaggi/il-sondaggio-politico-di-luned%C3%AC3-agosto-2020-03-08-2020-152420 Martini, Fabio. “’The Beast,’ an Algorithm that Tells Salvini If and How ‘Bad’ to Be.” La Stampa. Accessed August 19, 2020: https://www.lastampa.it/esteri/la-stampa-in-english/2018/09/10/news/the-beast-an-algorithm-thattells-salvini-if-and-how-bad-to-be-1.34044116 Oxford Union, “Steve Bannon, Full Address and Q&A, Oxford Union.” YouTube Video, 1:12:02. Accessed August 20, 2020: https://www.youtube. com/watch?v=8AtOw-xyMo8&list=LLpOxdQxG2YKlswnbAuCTnGA&index=637 Tofani, Federica. “Conte il Miglior Premier degli Ultimi 25 Anni con il 30% Secondo i Sondaggi Demos.” Sky TG24. Accessed August 18, 2020: https:// tg24.sky.it/politica/2020/07/20/giuseppe-conte-miglior-premier-sondaggi-demos For a general introduction to different theories of populism see: Mudde, Cas, and Cristobal Rovira Kaltwasser “Populism: a Very Short Introduction.” Oxford: Oxford University Press (2017). Contributor Jaromir Chroustovsky EU Budget and Recovery Fund Summit: Clashes over ‘Different Conceptions of Europe’ Brunsden, Jim, Sam Fleming, and Mehreen Khan. “EU recovery fund: how the plan will work.” Financial Times, July 21 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/2b69c9c4-2ea4-4635-9d8a-1b67852c0322. Calhoun, George.“Europe’s Hamiltonian Moment – What Is It Really?”Forbes, May 26 2020. https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2020/05/26/ europes-hamiltonian-moment--what-is-it-really/#20ab3e371e1a. Chazan, Guy. “Coronavirus crisis prompts German rethink on eurobonds.” Financial Times, April 6 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/8da39299b257-4e8f-9b83-a84a8930f1c1. Editorial Board. “The EU’s leaders have agreed on a €750bn covid-19 recovery package.” The Economist, July 21 2020. https://www.economist.com/ europe/2020/07/21/the-eus-leaders-have-agreed-on-a-eu750bn-covid19-recovery-package. Fleming, Sam, and Victor Mallet, and Guy Chazan. “Germany and France unite in call for €500bn Europe recovery fund.” Financial Times, May 18 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/c23ebc5e-cbf3-4ad8-85aa-032b574d0562. Giles, Chris, and Peter Spiegel, and Quentin Peel. “Germany rules out common eurobonds.” Financial Times, May 22 2012. https://www.ft.com/content/5abc14ba-a42e-11e1-a701-00144feabdc0. Heikkilä, Melissa, and Hans von der Burchard. ‘”Frugal four” propose “loans for loans” approach to coronavirus recovery fund.” POLITICO, May 23 2020. https://www.politico.eu/article/frugal-four-propose-loans-for-loans-approach-to-coronavirus-recovery-fund/. Herszenhorn, David M. “EU needs new treaty and “generational change” in Brussels, says Kurz.” POLITICO, May 4 2019. https://www.politico.eu/article/ sebastian-kurz-eu-reform-treaty-generational-change/. Karnitschnig, Matthew. “German conservatives’ Eurobond awakening.” POLITICO, May 20 2020. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-conservatives-eurobond-awakening/. Khan, Mehreen, Sam Fleming, and Jim Brunsden. “Despite historic EU deal, deep rifts remain.” Financial Times, July 22 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/0fc2a2e6-791e-4f6f-bafc-e0c924aa398a.

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Bibliography Kurz, Sebastian. “Eine Schuldenunion wird es mit uns nicht geben.” Interview by Ralph Bollmann. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 12 2020. https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/sebastian-kurz-im-intervieweine-schuldenunion-wird-es-mit-uns-nicht-geben-16856542.html?_ ga=2.254459336.1119873744.1596095152-536883465.1596095152. Kurz, Sebastian. “The EU Consists of More than Just Two Member States.” Interview by Walter Mayr and Maximillian Popp. SPIEGEL International, June 6 2020. https://www.spiegel.de/international/austrian-chancellorsebastian-kurz-the-eu-consists-of-more-than-just-two-member-states-a8c188867-1ba4-4765-ae2b-506b5809250d. Presse- und Informationsamt der Bundesregierung. “A French-German Initiative for the European Recovery from the Coronavirus Crisis.” Accessed August 14 2020. https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/97381 2/1753772/414a4b5a1ca91d4f7146eeb2b39ee72b/2020-05-18-deutschfranzoesischer-erklaerung-eng-data.pdf?download=1. The European Commission. “Europe’s moment: Repair and prepare for the next generation.” Accessed August 14 2020. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_940. The European Council. ‘Long-term EU budget 2021-2027.’ Accessed August 14, 2020. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/the-eubudget/long-term-eu-budget-2021-2027/. Contributor: Sara Dozai COVID-19 AMID A NUMBER OF EUROPEAN ELECTIONS 24, FRANCE. “France Votes in Municipal Elections with Paris Mayoral Race in the Balance.” France 24, June 28, 2020: www.france24.com/ en/20200628-france-votes-in-municipal-elections-with-paris-mayoralrace-in-the-balance. Owen, Mark. “The Debate - France’s Green Wave: Will Macron Manage to Surf It?” France 24, June 29, 2020: www.france24.com/en/ france/20200629-france-s-green-wave-will-macron-manage-to-surf-it. “France Municipal Elections: Greens Score Gains in Second Round.” BBC News, June 29, 2020: www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53213783. Davies, Pascale. “New French Government Named in Macron Reshuffle.” Euronews, July 8, 2020: www.euronews.com/2020/07/06/france-s-newprime-minister-castex-to-announce-government-reshuffle. “Poland’s Duda Narrowly Beats Trzaskowski in Presidential Vote.” BBC News, July 13, 2020: www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53385021. Chadwick, Lauren. “Five Takeaways from the Polish Presidential Election.” Euronews, July 13, 2020: www.euronews.com/2020/07/13/five-takeaways-from-the-polish-presidential-election Roache, Madeline, and Suyin Haynes. “Poland LGBTQ Protests: What’s Next in Fight for LGBTQ Rights.” Time, August 12, 2020: time.com/5878424/poland-lgbt-protests-police-brutality/. “Hrvatski Parlamentarni Izbori 2020.” Wikipedia, July 25, 2020: hr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hrvatski_parlamentarni_izbori_2020. L. R., D.i. “Potpuni Trijumf HDZ-a, Vladu Ne Bismo Trebali Dugo Čekati. Teški Poraz Restart Koalicije.” Dnevnik.hr, July 6, 2020: dnevnik.hr/vijesti/parlamentarni-izbori-2020/rezultati-parlamentarnih-izbora-2020-na-dnevnikhr-u---610461.html. “PARLAMENTARNI IZBORI 2020.” Dnevnik.hr: dnevnik.hr/vijesti/parlamentarni-izbori-2020/. “Uvjerljiva Pobjeda Vučićevog SNS-a: DW: 22.06.2020.” DW.COM, June 22, 2020: www.dw.com/hr/uvjerljiva-pobjeda-vučićevog-sns-a/a-53893858. “Izbori u Srbiji: Pobjednik Se Već Odavno Zna: DW: 20.06.2020.” DW.COM, June 20, 2020: www.dw.com/hr/izbori-u-srbiji-pobjednik-se-već-odavnozna/a-53880490. “Protest DJB Kod Skupštine, Najavili Da Će Pokušati Da Spreče Održavanje Sednice.” N1 Srbija, August 2, 2020: rs.n1info.com/Vesti/a625922/Protest-DJB-ispred-Skupstine-najavljuju-da-ce-spreciti-odrzavanje-sednice. html. “Novi Protest Na Beogradskim Ulicama.” Al Jazeera Balkans, June 30, 2020: balkans.aljazeera.net/vijesti/novi-protest-na-beogradskim-ulicama.

Africa Contributor: Ayanda Tambo Covid-19 and The New Scramble for Africa: How the global Coronavirus crisis has become the latest stage in the battle Between China and the United States for Influence in Africa -Michael R. Pompeo, “Empty Promises from the People’s Republic of China in Africa” U.S. Department of State, June 24, 2020, https://www.state.gov/ empty-promises-from-the-peoples-republic-china-in-africa/ Barney Walsh and Hubert Kinkoh, “COVID-19 and the Conundrum of China-Africa Relations” King’s College London, April 30, 2020, https://www. kcl.ac.uk/covid-19-and-the-conundrum-of-china-africa-relations Ndongo Samba Sylla, “The Franc Zone, a Tool of French Neocolonialism in Africa”, Jacobin Magazine, June 1, 2020, https://www.jacobinmag. com/2020/01/franc-zone-french-neocolonialism-africa Amos Fofung “How Europeans Took the World’s Largest Diamond From South Africa in 1906 and Made it the British Crown Jewel” Face 2 Face Africa, June 3, 2019, https://face2faceafrica.com/article/how-europeans-took-the-worldslargest-diamond-from-south-africa-in-1906-and-made-it-the-britishcrown-jewel “Kampala-Entebbe Expressway”, Road Traffic Technology, accessed August 2, 2020, https://www.roadtraffic-technology.com/projects/kampala-entebbe-expressway-uganda/ Patrick Gathara, “Berlin 1884: Remembering the Conference that Divided Africa”, Aljazeera, November 15, 2019 https://www.aljazeera.com/ indepth/opinion/berlin-1884-remembering-conference-divided-africa-191115110808625.html Tom Phillips, “The $900bn question: what is the Belt and Road initiative?”, The Guardian, May 12, 2017, ://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/12/the-900bn-questionwhat-is-the-belt-and-road-initiative Abdi Latif Dahir, “These Are the African Countries Not Signed to China’s Belt and Road Project”, Quartz Africa, September 30, 2019, https://qz.com/ africa/1718826/the-african-countries-not-signed-to-chinas-belt-androad-plan/ Elliot Smith, “The US-China Trade Rivalry is Underway in Africa, and Washington is Playing Catch-up”, CNBC, Oct 9, 2019, https://www.cnbc. com/2019/10/09/the-us-china-trade-rivalry-is-underway-in-africa.html Celia Hatton, “Jack Ma: The Billionaire Trying to Stop Coronavirus (and Fix China’s Reputation)”, BBC News, April 26, 2020, https://www.bbc.co.uk/ news/world-asia-china-52325269 APO Group, “Coronavirus: Africa CDC receives third donation of medical supplies from Jack Ma Foundation, co-hosts global MediXChange webinar on COVID-19”, Africa News, April 27, 2020. https://www.africanews.com/2020/04/27/coronavirus-africa-cdc-receives-third-donation-of-medical-supplies-from-jack-ma-foundation-co-hosts-global-medixchange-webinar-on-covid-19// BBC News, “China-US Rivalry in Africa Fueled by Coronavirus”, June 9, 2020, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-52966148 Dennis Munene, “BRI Provides Path to Social, Economic Development”, China Daily Global, June 2, 2020, http://global.chinadaily.com. cn/a/202006/02/WS5ed5a35fa310a8b24115a0fe.html Lisa Lambert and David Brunnstrom, “Pompeo Says China’s Africa Lending Creates Unsustainable Debt Burden”, Reuters, June 25, 2020, https://af.reuters.com/article/idAFKBN23W120-OZATP Contributor Megan Clementson Cox Locked-down or Locked Out: the plight of African domestic workers in the Middle East Amy Copley, Alison Decker, Fannie Delavelle, ‘Supporting African women

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https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/usa/id_88361708/usschlag-gegen-chinas-tiktok-donald-trump-sucht-die-eskalation.html https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2017/06/donald-trump-plastic-surgery Interviews: https://www.etivdobrasil.org/about-us/jaci-braga Graduating into a Pandemic: https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-26/Class-of-2020-Graduating-inthe-time-of-COVID-19-RDb6RV9LaM/index.html Britain The future after covid: most centralised country https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nhs-nightingale-excel-centre-hospital-london https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scientific-advisers-distance-themselves-from-pms-lockdown-easing-12013442 Modern-Day Slavery, Starvation Wages and Destroying the Planet: Coronavirus Has Exposed the Atrocities Of The British Garment Industry. But How Might It Change? https://newint.org/features/2020/02/10/few-cents-more Black Lives Matter: The Power of Social Media in Protest https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-53004748 Holding the British Government accountable tothe climate crisis promises after COVID-https://www.space.com/41262-humans-affect-earth-seasons-climate.html https://cherwell.org/2019/03/16/second-youth-climate-strike-held-in-oxford/ Europe Three Versions of Populism https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/giuseppe-conte-interview-leave-theeu-no-chance-we-want-to-confront-our-problems-from-inside-9vlsglkq8 EU Budget and Recovery Fund Summit: Clashes over ‘Different Conceptions of Europe’ https://www.ft.com/content/2b69c9c4-2ea4-4635-9d8a-1b67852c0322 Covid-19 Amid A Number of European Elections https://wtv.pl/lgbt160620-mk-duda-czarnek AFRICA COVID-19 and The New Scramble for Africa: How the Global Coronavirus Crisis is the latest battleground in the Competition Between China and the United States for Influence in Africa https://www.dnaindia.com/world/photo-gallery-in-pics-melania-trumplooks-happier-hanging-out-with-african-children-than-with-donaldtrump-2670800 COVID-19 and the learning gap: The challenges Africa’s Universities are facing due to the global pandemic h t t p s : / / w w w. b r o o k i n g s . e d u / b l o g / e d u c a t i o n - p l u s - d e v e l o p ment/2020/06/04/ensuring-learning-continuity-for-every-african-childin-the-time-of-covid-19/ Locked-down or Locked Out: the plight of African domestic workers in the Middle East https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/world/middleeast/coronavirus-saudi-domestic-workers-maids-arab.html MIDDLE EAST Post-Covid-19 Turkish Foreign Policy: an Ode to Misunderstood Insecurity (Meryem Kucuk) Content page title: Post-Covid Turkish foreign Policy https://theconversation.com/turkey-how-recep-tayyip-erdogan-is-usingcoronavirus-to-clamp-down-further-on-dissent-142204 Voices from UAE and Turkey (Clarissa Fraschetti) https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189634.shtml

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Old Tensions, New Threats: Climate Change in post-Covid-19 Middle East (Badis Khiari Millan https://www.veggitech.com/products/ The effects of Covid-19 on Saudi Arabian Influence in the Global Oil Economy. h t t p s : / / w w w. g e t t y i m a g e s. a t / fo t o s / p r i n c e - m o h a m m e d - b i n - s a l man-meet-with-russian-president-vladimir-putin?mediatype=photography&phrase=prince%20mohammed%20bin%20salman%20meet%20with%20russian%20president%20vladimir%20putin&sort=best https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/why-opec-russiablowup-sparked-all-out-oil-price-war-quicktake ASIA Behind China’s economic recovery: Social Stability at Risk? https://mothership.sg/2018/03/spore-china-gateway-southeast-asia/ A Spider on a Changing Web: Lessons from Singapore https://www.businessinsider.com/singapore-coronavirus-quarantine-lying-to-investigators-jail-fine-2020-3?r=US&IR= New Zealand and the Changing Attitudes to Female Leaders During Covid-19, https://www.stylist.co.uk/people/jacinda-ardern-pay-cut-coronavirus-solidarity-new-zealand/380317 North America The US CARES Act and Latinx Workers – Racial Capitalism at Work (Grace Hunley) Source: https://citylimits.org/2020/07/17/phase-3-employees-demand-better-workplace-protections-as-covid-reopening-progresses/ Towards a New Federalism (Vlad Adamescu) https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc. com%2F2020%2F07%2F16%2Fcuomo-slams-trump-coronavirus-re sponse-as-virus-of-american-division-and-federal-incompetence.html&psig=AOvVaw1JRlVngWuZzNc9Rqkrfdt4&ust=1600941557779000&source =images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAIQjRxqFwoTCPC_sK6C_-sCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAw Renewable Energies in the United States: the Shift that will Take More than a Pandemic Campaigning under Coronavirus https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/an-encouraging-rollout-for-the-biden-harris-ticket https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-growth-for-renewable-electricity-generation-by-source-2018-2020 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/rate-of-change-of-global-primary-energy-demand-1900-2020 Latin America Dengue and Covid-19: Climate Change is Setting an Irreversible Epidemiological Pattern https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/5/12/dengue-kills-too-latin-americafaces-two-epidemics-at-once https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/6/10/brazil-restores-coronavirus-data-after-controversy-court-ruling Filling the ‘Educational Gap’: How the Covid Crisis Exposed the Region’s Shortcomings in the Sector https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/stories/schools-will-reopen-will-latin-americaand-caribbean-be-ready A Nation Betrayed: What Bolsonaro’s Response to Covid-19 Means for the Future of Brazil’s Leadership (Tommy O’Donnell) https://www.dw.com/es/jair-bolsonaro-confirm%C3%B3-que-ya-no-tiene-coronavirus/a-54316453 Climate Change Info Graphic

https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/top-10-warmest-years-on-record

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Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 127

Issue 22: Covid 19 - The Leaning Edge

Articles inside

Leadership

coming in Latin America

demics

rus

Renewable Energies in the take more than a Pandemic

Towards a New Federalism

During Covid-19

recovery

Work

Global Oil Economy

Covid-19 Middle East

Voices from UAE and Turkey

Policy

gap

COVID-19 and The New Scramble for Africa

Europe

European Elections

Covid-19

of Social Media in Protest

ment Industry

Online Democracy: The Next Pandemic?

the World

pandemic

The Covid

Jaci Braga

national Order

Graduating into a Pandemic

World