MANCHESTER CORRIDOR 2045:
RESILIENCE TO AN EXTREME CLIMATE SCENARIO
V.1
CPU MAXIME DOWNE KLEANTHIS ROUSOS ROSS KILSHAW
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THESIS STATEMENT The extrapolation of future scenarios is an established method to study responses to potential extreme conditions and alternative futures (Dunne & Raby, 2013). Based on study of current energy usage, temperature change and precipitation trends in the UK, a likely future scenario for 2045 is one where the UK climate is extreme with arctic and tropical seasonal weather conditions acting simultaneously and the start of an accelerated ice age. This project aims at investigating how the built environment can adapt and evolve to this future climatic condition, using the Manchester Corridor as its contextual setting. Our responses will explore social and technological evolution towards adapted human existence and related building solutions both underground and above ground. The theoretical frameworks applied here are emergence (De Wolf & Holvoet, 2004) and panarchy (Hollings, 2001). Where emergence is the occurrence of new trends and patterns of behaviour; panarchy is the study of the phases of an adaptable society/system.
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0.1 INTRODUCTION CPU IS AN ATELIER FOCUSED ON DATA-DRIVEN BOTTOM-UP APPROACHES INCORPORATING TRANSDISCIPLINARY TO SOLVE ISSUES POSED BY CONTEMPORARY CITIES AS COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS.
CPU researches application and development of emergent theoretical approaches aimed at new understanding and positive intervention within contemporary processes of urban transformation. The focus in MArch Yr2 is on a critical path towards new forms of sustainable architecture using informed future scenarios, technologies and tools (developed by the students).
The 2nd year of MArch involves a steep learning curve as students learn completely new techniques, such as data mining, parametric coding and robust analytical methods. The outputs at each stage aim to develop new specialised skills (atypical for architects in practice) and use them. This is an approach based around using existing skills acquired in previous years.
The primary theoretical framework is complexity science (which involves systems, self-organisation, emergence, artificial intelligence, resilience, adaptation, evolution).
The site this year is the Manchester Corridor – related to the CityVerve project site and current CPU funded research into IoT and Smart Cities. Research is undertaken in three
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related parts. New methods of ‘research’ into actual processes of urban change including traditional architectural approaches, but expanded to social science, data analytics, data extrapolation and digital simulation methods. This requires learning and development of new skills and approaches to undertake the research in a scientific manner and develop extrapolated rather than imaginary future scenarios as Memes (5.1). New methods of ‘design research’ involving the development of unprecedented coded digital spatial
models responding to identified future conditions and responsiveness to future disrupters such as the Internet of Things, Machine Intelligence and Climate Change (5.2). The digital and spatial testing of responsive and adaptable architectural solutions set within future scenarios and using projected technologies (5.3). This project [5.1] critically investigates future urban scenarios in Manchester (focusing on the Manchester Corridor) related to urban transformation and ‘transitions’ using methods of data capture, investigation, analysis and
visualisation. The main aim of the project is to develop future scenarios based on a longitudinal understanding of historic and current trajectories of change. Evidence based extrapolated future are developed by students on their own timelines. These future scenarios (negative, positive, dystopian, inevitable, disastrous, technological) with embedded conditions become the ‘setting’ for the building projects in the following two terms. The research involves working with multiple real ‘corridor’ stakeholders,
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real data and scientific analytical methods towards the development of theoretically robust positions for design research in extrapolated future scenarios.
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CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1.0 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 2. GLOBAL AND LOCAL TRENDS WHICH SHAPED THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR 2.1 Environmental 2.2 Population/Density 2.3 Technological 2.4 Building Scale 3. GLOBAL AND LOCAL TRENDS WHICH WILL SHAPE THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR 3.1 Environmental 3.2 Population/Density 3.3 Technological 3.4 Building Scale 3.5 Policy/Political 4. DISRUPTORS THAT WILL SHAPE THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR 4.1 The Gulf Stream Stops 4.2 Displacement of citizens due to rising sea levels 4.3 Advanced Nanotechnology 4.4 AI 4.5 3D Printed Graphene 5. EXPERIMENTS AND CASE STUDIES 5.1 Experiments 5.3 Case Studies 6. FUTURE BUILDING SOLUTIONS FOR AN EXTREME CLIMATE AND A DENSE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR 7. CONCLUSION 8. BIBLIOGRAPHY 9. APPENDIX
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Section 1
This section sets the underlying theoretical frameworks namely, emergence and panarchy, which form a prism through which the following investigations will be viewed.
Section 2
In order the gain said understanding this section begins to look at the corridor through 4 categories of information: environment, population density, technology and the building environment.
Section 3
This section identifies and extrapolates the datasets based on the trends identified in section 2. Through the effects of climate change in combination with existing population growth trends and technological change , an image of the future of the corridor begins to emerge.
Section 4
This section takes the trends projected in section 3 and begins to anticipate potential distruptors which will augment said trends. The popularisation of AI, the stop of the gulf stream, 3d printed graphene and climate change refugees put a strain on the population of Manchester but also open pathways of relief.
Section 5 Key 1
Experiments and case studies investigate and begin to gain understanding for potential future solutions to the challenges layed out in the previous sections.
Key 1 Key 1 Section 6 Key 1 Key 1
Section 7 Key 1
By applying the knowledge gained in all the previous sections this section speculates on the future by creating extreme potential future scenarios and sets out their solutions. The project concludes on a future scenario from which the future design experimetns will stem.
Key 1 Key 1
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0.3 PROJECT SUMMARY THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR WILL BE DEEPLY EFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND MAY HAVE TO MOVE UNDERGROUND BY 2045. There is a wave of paranoia sweeping the planet with world events being what they are today. Between the polarised division of wealth, global warming, revolutions, wars and extreme nationalism that seem to be filling our screens, one can begin to worry that the end is nigh. Man is destroying the planet and with it himself, but the technology he has created can save both. This project aims at identifying a future scenario for the Manchester Corridor in 2045, where global warming has caused the Gulf Stream effect to stop and rising sea levels. The Gulf Stream effect stopping will accelerate an already overdue ice age in the world whereas rising sea levels will cause citizens of the coastal regions of the UK to be displaced, many of which will relocate to Manchester. Our response is to identify the essential drivers shaping man’s future eco-system and the drivers to technological advance that
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can solve man’s and his planet’s woes. The solution envisaged is a world lived underground or a sealed, climate regulated overground future building solution. Kurzweil’s (2005) law of accelerating returns and Kelly’s (2016) 12 inevitable technological trends, artificial intelligence will become so powerful that it will enable the development of technologies that support man detached from the constraints of the real world, living in a matrix consisting of machines that substitute for his five senses, interconnected through real-time cloud-based data feeds. Essentially, this is what Kelly identifies as the twelfth trend that will shape the future - Beginning. This is constructing a planetary system connecting all humans and machines into a global matrix. A subterranean building solution for the Manchester Corridor will be developed focused on harnessing the geothermal properties of the Earth as well as allowing the Earth’s surface to heal from the accumulated effects of man’s activities since the start of the industrial revolution. This is made possible by 2045 through progress in construction technology as well as nanotechnology, allowing for fully immersive virtual reality and augmented reality, making subterranean life liveable for humans. An overground building solution for the Manchester Corridor will also be developed by creating sealed, climate controlled environments, similar to the theoretical projects of Buckminster Fuller and Frei Otto. This is focused around harnessing energy from nuclear fusion and allowing the Earth around these sealed environments to heal aswell.
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RESEARCH DIAGRAM The research in this project was data-driven and so many avenues were explored before coming to the conclusion that led to the 2045 Manchester Corridor scenario described previously. Internet of things (Townsend, 2013)
Temperature Energy consumption Precipitation
Manchester Analysis
Daylight
Energy surges (Townsend, 2013)
Problem Identification
Facebook Predicting the future through social media
Theoretical Framework
Professional Consultation
Conclusion Model
Smart Cities (Anthony Townsend)
The Law of Accelerating Returns (Kelly, 2016) Smart power grids
Problem Identification
Building occupancy
Theoretical Frameworks General Research Project Development
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Manchester Metropolitan University Bruntwood
UOM building shut off investigation for load shedding
Professional Consultation
Manchester Anal
University of Manchester
Load shedding
Integrated Technologies
Predict future energy surges through climate data and twitter analysis
Integrated Technology Thought-Experiment Energy consumption (Le Guin, 1969) Glacial periods
Precipitation A / B Manifesto Computing & (Dunne & nanotechnology Raby, 2009)
Tate Switch House
Temperature
Extreme climate
Future Problem Extrapolations Identification Twitter
Climate change
Shadows
Daylight
Technology
Gulf stream
Rights to light
Political changes Graphene
Creation of Twitter Bot
Solar energy Creating a void for development areas
Dealing with Big Data (10,996 tweets)
Underground city -Sleeping Underground-Living in the Clouds-
Resilience (Walker et al. 2004) Snow + ice build up
Future Scenarios
The Inevitable (Kelly, 2016) AI Party in power (2045)
Virtual reality Twitter competition
Mexico Earthscraper
Adaptability
Energy consumption Ice age
Mexico City Panarchy (Holling)
Increased precipitation
Legislation
r Corridor lysis
Boreholes
Increased population
Popular routes analysis
Dome Over Manhattan (Fuller, 1960)
Above ground scenario Arctic Cities (Otto, 1971)
MMU building Emergence tweets (Steven Johnson)
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Fully submersive vertural reality living
01 Theoretical
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1 Framework
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1.1.1 WHY FUTURE SCENARIOS ARE USEFUL WE ARE LIVING IN THE PRESENTCONTINUOUS WHEREAS TO UNDERSTAND WHERE WE ARE GOING, WE SHOULD BE IN THE FUTURE-PERFECT McLuhan (1967) suggests that we understand the future as something that is going to happen rather than something that is happening through an analogy of lookingat the present through a rear-view mirror. We only understand the potentialities of the future through what we already know about the past. This project aims to be a thought-experiment analysing one possible future based on a series of data extrapolations of present trends, clearly understood and disruptors which will affect these extrapolations. Science fiction writer Le Guin (1969: xi) provides some insight into the why thought-experiments are useful in general:
“The purpose of a thought-experiment, as the term was used by Schrödinger and other physicists, is not to predict the future - indeed Schrödinger’s most famous thought-experiment goes to show that the ‘future,’ on the quantum level, cannot be predicted- but to describe reality, the present world.”
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1.1.2 WHY FUTURE SCENARIOS ARE USEFUL IN DESIGN THIS IS NOT A SCENARIO OF FANTASY BUT ONE OF USEFUL SPECULATION, OF USEFUL QUESTIONING AND EXPERIMENTING. Dunne and Raby (2009) develop A/B, A Manisfesto displayed here, in which they look at how design is perceived on the one hand and how it should be on the other. For instance, science-fiction becomes social fiction and extrapolating futures becomes more about glimpsing into parallel worlds. Dunne and Raby (2013: 3) iterate it this way:
“To find inspiration for speculating through design we need to look beyond to the methodological playgrounds of cinema, literature, science, ethics, politics, and art; to explore, hybridize, borrow, and embrace the many tools available for crafting not only things but also ideas – fictional worlds, cautionary tales, what-if scenarios, thought experiments, counterfactuals, reduction as absurdum experiments, prefigurative futures, and so on.”
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[A]
[B]
AFFIRMATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING DESIGN AS PROCESS PROVIDES ANSWERS IN THE SERVICE OF INDUSTRY FOR HOW THE WORLD IS SCIENCE FICTION FUTURES FICTIONAL FUNCTIONS CHANGE THE WORLD TO SUIT US NARRATIVES OF PRODUCTION ANTI-ART RESEARCH FOR DESIGN APPLICATIONS DESIGN FOR PRODUCTION FUN CONCEPT DESIGN CONSUMER USER TRAINING MAKES US BUY INNOVATION ERGONOMICS
CRITICAL PROBLEM FINDING DESIGN AS MEDIUM ASKS QUESTIONS IN THE SERVICE OF SOCIETY FOR HOW THE WORLD COULD BE SOCIAL FICTION PARALLEL WORLDS FUNCTIONAL FICTIONS CHANGE US TO SUIT THE WORLD NARRATIVES OF CONSUMPTION APPLIED ART RESEARCH THROUGH DESIGN IMPLICATIONS DESIGN FOR DEBATE SATIRE CONCEPTUAL DESIGN CITIZEN PERSON EDUCATION MAKES US THINK PROVOCATION RHETORIC
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HOW THOUGHT-EXPERIMENTS CAN LEAD TO EXTREME FUTURES In 1975, Moebius & O’Bannon explored how an underground city might be structured, on a planet where the surface has become uninhabitable in The Long Tomorrow (1975), often considered the first true work of cyberpunk.
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1.2 SELF-ORGANISATION & EMERGENCE EMERGENT PROPERTIES CANNOT BE STUDIED BY PHYSICALLY TAKING A SYSTEM APART AND LOOKING AT THE PARTS (REDUCTIONISM). RATHER, EACH PART HAS TO BE STUDIED (AGGREGATE BEHAVIOUR) IN THE CONTEXT OF THE WHOLE SYSTEM. Tom De Wolf and Tom Holvoet explain how emergent behaviour can be observed within a system through the combined behaviour of each of the agents. SImilarly to the way in which an ants produce an ant hill structure through the combined efforts of each ant. No single ant can build an ant hill, its their self-organisation in groups which causes the ant hill to emmerge. Through the prism of self-organisation and emergence, we can study and understand how a society displays emergent behaviours through the processes of self-organisation.
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Years 1951 to 2061
EMERGENT BEHAVIOURS
EMERGENT BEHAVIOURS
MACRO
MACRO micro
micro system of influence
system of influence disruption
community of practice
new idea
decline
community of practice
naming
new idea
disruption
decline
naming collecting
collecting
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community of practice
1.3 PANARCHY PANARCHY IS THE STUDY OF THE PHASES OF AN ADAPTABLE SOCIETY/ SYSTEM AND CAN BE USED HERE IN ORDER TO IDENTIFY SOLUTIONS. Panarchy is a way to understand adaptive systems. The ideas behind it can be better explained through the shape in the diagram on this page. It has 4 main stages within it.
example spoke about previously it would be people have accumulated the CD players and CD’s.
1. Exploitation When the populous finds something new and desirable its use of this new object grows. One example of this is the portable music players that played CD’s.
3. Release This is a rapid decline of the system; it happens when there is an external change or if a similar product is introduced to the market. (Holling, 2001). Again in the case of the music players this could be represented as digitally download-able music.
2. Conservation The system begins to store “energy” and over time the population reaches carrying capacity (Holling, 2001) and the craze stabilizes. In the
4. Reorganization Reorganization is when the members of the system are selected for their ability to survive the change that caused the release. (Holling, 2001).
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In the music example this could be a CD player that also plays digitally downloaded music.
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1.4 RESILIENCE INVESTIGATING HOLLING’S THEORY OF RESILIENCE AS A POSSIBLE SOLUTION TO EXTREME FUTURE SCENARIOS.
In urban planning, resilience was originally discussed in terms of recovering from a disturbance. However, cities as complex adaptive systems, are in a constant flux, never reaching an equilibrium. They are constantly adjusting to cope with human needs and other external or internal change. Climate, as one of the most important drivers of our project, is changing in an unpredictable and non-linear way and it is a major external input. Walker et al. (2004) reinterpretates the resilience of socio-ecological systems that need to be considered in terms of the attributes that govern a system’s dynamics.
As humans and cities depend on nature, its very instability should be embraced and adopt a thinking about resilience that focuses on unpredictability. This can enhance urban resilience instead of focusing on avoiding disturbances and controlling the systems we live in by striving for equilibrium. In this project, the prevention of disturbances from extreme scenarios, such as extreme climate change, is not the focus. As unpredictable changes are part of all complex systems we are focusing on the adaptive capabilities of the Manchester Corridor by integrating extreme climate conditions and rising sea levels into our thinking.
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This results in the transformability of the Manchester Corridor as we are generating new scenarios that create a fundamentally new system with a structure that responds and adapts to future climate change through technological solutions.
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Meter rise in sea level
Unpredicable Future
Ecological Resilience
Characteristics 150000 of a Social Ecological System
100000
50000
0
-5000
Resilience
Adaptability
Transformability
System remains in the same basin of attraction
Adapting to new wider / deeper basins due to change in state
Capasity to create new system if current state is pushed to limit
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02
Global and Local Tre the Manche
2.1 Envi 2.2 Populat 2.3 Tech 2.4 Buildi 28
2
ends Which Shaped ester Corridor
ironment tion/Density hnology ing Scale 29
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2.0.1 LOCATION OF THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR IS AN INNOVATIVE DISTRICT LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CITY CENTRE & WITHIN FOUR CITY WARDS. The Manchester Corridor is an area south of the city centre that spans along Oxford Road from St. Peter’s Square and Whitworth Park. The Manchester Corridor (n.d.) website describes it as an Innovative District. These are defined by Katz & Wagner (2014) as:
“geographic areas where leading-edge anchor institutions and companies cluster and connect with start-ups, business incubators, and accelerators. [...] Compact, transit-accessible, and technically-wired and offer mixed-use housing, office, and retail.”
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MANCHESTER CORRIDOR
GREATER MANCHESTER
MANCHESTER
OXFORD ROAD
ST. PETER’S SQUARE
WHITWORTH PARK
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2.0.2 GLOBAL IMPORTANCE OF THE CORRIDOR THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR HAS BEEN AN IMPORTANT PLAYER IN GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICAL AND CREATIVE INNOVATION HISTORY. From Alan Turing developing the concept of modern computing with the Universal Computing Machine in 1936 to the discovery of graphene in 2004, the Manchester Corridor has been at the centre of innovations having a global and even historic significance. It is evident that the future of the Manchester Corridor is one that will pursue this tred as suggested on the Manchester Corridor (n.d.):
“By 2025, Corridor Manchester will be Manchester’s cosmopolitan hub and worldclass innovation district, where talented people from the city and across the world learn, create, work, socialise, live and do business; contributing to the economic and social dynamism of one of Europe’s leading cities.”
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UNIVERSAL COMPUTING MACHINE
1936 SPLITTING THE ATOM
1917 ROAD OXFORD
DISCOVERY OF GRAPHENE
2004 FACTORY RECORDS
1978
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2.0.3 STAKEHOLDERS ON THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR The Manchester Corridor is a diverse research hub bringing together several institutions. It is one of the largest higher education campuses in Europe. Manchester Metropolitan University (MMU), University of Manchester (UoM), Royal Northern College of Music (RNCM), National Health Service (NHS), Bruntwood and Manchester Science Partnership (MSP) are the key stakeholders along the Manchester Corridor. The six key stakeholders identified here have more or less buildings along the corridor, some that are under development and others that are ripe for redevelopment. A more thorough analysis of the area using a combination of data analysis, trend extrapolation and scenario development will help identify sites of interest.
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MMU UoM RNCM NHS Bruntwood MSP Built Under development
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2.1 Environmental Data
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2.1.1 GLOBAL INTERGLACIAL & ICE AGE PERIODS THROUGH LOOKING AT CLIMATE CONDITIONS ON A GLOBAL SCALE WE GAIN A BETTER UNDERSTANDING ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN LOCALLY. We are currently at the end of an interglacial period between ice ages on Earth. This means that the start of a new ice age is actually overdue. Although the start of an ice age is a gradual descent into arctic temperatures, the processes resulting from climate change can accelerate this process and we need to act in anticipation of this. John Cook. 2010. Are we heading into a new ice age. [ONLINE] Available at: https://www.skepticalscience.com/ heading-into-new-little-ice-age-intermediate.htm. [Accessed 8 December 2016].
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Current Interglacial Period Usual Interglacial Period
0
5
10
Temperature Over the Past 420,000 Years
Temperature Change (°C)
6 4
Interglacials
2
Ice Age
0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
Year Before Present Day
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100,000
50,000
0
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2.1.2 MANCHESTER’S AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE MANCHESTER’S CLIMATE IS MILD, MAKING IT A VERY LIVEABLE CITY FOR ITS CITIZENS.
Manchester’s climate is fairly mild with seasonal changes that are not too extreme and therefore it is a very liveable city for its citizens. Climate change is an important issue here as it may disrupt this mild climate, changing the way citizens will live in the future. Liz Waters. 2016. Energy Consumption in the UK 2016. [ONLINE] Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/ statistics/energy-consumption-in-the-uk. [Accessed 8 December 2016]
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Average Annual Temperature of Manchester from 1970 to 2015
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Degree Celcius
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 1980
1990 Year
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2000
2010
2.1.3 MANCHESTER’S ANNUAL TEMPERATURE 2015 SEASONAL CHANGES IN MANCHESTER’S CLIMATE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE CAN BE OBSERVED HERE.
Met Office. 2016. Manchester Climate. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/ gcw2hzs1u. [Accessed 8 December 2016].
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Fe b ua ry
January
b cem De
er
20 10
vem
0
be r
rch Ma
No
Average Annual Temperature in Manchester 2015
April
October
er
July
e Jun
Au gu st
Ma y
Se
mb pte
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48
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2.1.4 MANCHESTER IS GETTING WETTER INCREASED PRECIPITATION IN MANCHESTER IS AN EARLY WARNING SIGN FOR WHAT IS TO COME.
The Manchester weather is one that is characterised by regular rainfall. However, the past two years have been more extreme than ever, with major floods occuring after Christmas 2015 and in September this year (2016). Floods are becoming more devastating and occur at closer intervals than ever before. BBC. 2010. Wild Weather: ‘Manchester’s rainy days getting wetter’. [ONLINE] Available at: http://news.bbc. co.uk/local/manchester/hi/people_and_places/nature/ newsid_8997000/8997816.stm. [Accessed 8 December 2016].
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Rainfall (% of 1961-2010 Mean Average)
Rainfall as a % of the 1961 - 2010 Average from 1900 - 2015 460 420 380 340 300 260 220 180 140 100 60
1900
1920
1940
1960 Year
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1980
2000
MANCHESTER FLOODING DECEMBER 2015
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2.1.5 MANCHESTER’S AVERAGE ANNUAL DAYLIGHT MANCHESTER’S DAYLIGHT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT ON THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR. Daylight is important to create successful buildings on the Manchester Corridor. This is a dataset that is regular and can be counted on time and time again as it generally does not really fluctuate. Met Office. 2016. Manchester Climate. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/ gcw2hzs1u. [Accessed 8 December 2016].
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Fe b ua ry
January
b cem De
er
20 10
vem
0
be r
rch Ma
No
Average Annual Daylight in hours for Manchester 2015
April
October
er
July
e Jun
Au gu st
Ma y
Se
mb pte
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2.1.6 IDENTIFYING AREAS OF MINIMAL SHADOW BY OVERLAPPING ALL THE SHADOW ANALYSIS WE WHERE ABLE TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREAS OF WHICH RECEIVE THE MOST SUNLIGHT. The areas in red on the map are those that receive the most amount of sunlight all through the year along the Manchester Corridor. This can give an indication as to what sites can be developed to maximise solar gains. Conversely, it can be used to highlight areas with poor sunlight that may need redeveloping.
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Areas that are light during daytime all year long
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2.2 Population/Density Data
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2.2.1 UK POPULATION INCREASE 1911-2016
The population of the UK has been increasing steadily over the past century. As one of the worlds largest economies ranking 3rd in Europe and up untill the Brexit referendum the 5th largest ecnomy in the world. Even though the birth rate has fallen from 2.67 births per woman in 1960 to 1.83 births per woman in 2014 (ONS, 2014) a steady influx of immigrants has been feeding this steady rise. Economic prosperity, higher education and the freedom of movement in the EU being a few of the main reasons for the maintenance of this steady increase.
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The population of the UK from 1011 to 2016
Population in millions
70.0
52.5
2011
35.0 1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
Years 1911 to 2021
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1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
2.2.2 GREATER MANCHESTER POPULATION INCREASE 1911-2016
Manchester in contrast to the UK has not been enjoying the same steady increase. Its post great depression and WW2 resurgence was cut short by mass deindustrialisation, losing almost 50,000 jobs between 1970 and 1980. The effects deindustrialisation had in the city were amplified by the progressively deteriorating living conditions resulting in Manchester losing almost 17.5% of its population. (Paxton, 2016)
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The population of Greater Manchester from 1011 to 2016
Population in millions
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2011
2.4 1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
Years 1911 to 2021
63
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
64
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2.2.3 UoM & MMU POPULATION INCREASE DEMOGRAPHICS SPENDING INCOME
The University of Manchester was established by royal charter after the dissolution Victoria University of Manchester and the University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (UMIST). The assets and obligations of the two afforementioned institutions were transfered to the newly established entity by means of the University of Manchester Act of 2004. Ever since the merger the University has been boasting one of the largest student populations in the UK. The Manchester Metropolitan University was establlished in 1970 as a polytechnic and in 1992 as a University. It has been growing at a steady pace over the past years and even though its annual income is 27% that of UoM it manages to maintain a fairly large population of students 77% that of UoM.
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£ 490,640,000
£ 957,578,000
£ 345,441,000
£ 1,009,706,000
9,915 32,570
UoM
MMU £ 235,446,000
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af f
nt s Te ac h
in
g
St
de Su To ta l
al To t
3,485 25,335
re itu xp ed
To ta lE
In co
se ar ch
In Re
g in
m
e m co
om nc Te ac h
To ta lI
e
£ 255,707,000
e
£ 270,639,000
£ 957,578,000
STUDENTS AROUND ALL SAINTS CAMPUS, MMU
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2.2.4 LOWER COSTS WITH HIGHER DENSITIES 09.11.2016 NORMAN FOSTER GAVE A LECTURE AT MANCHESTER TOWN HALL WHERE HE MENTIONNED ECONOMY OF SCALE WITH HIGHER DENSITY. The graph on the right represents different cities that have been plotted on a chart based on transport related energy consumption and urban density. When plotting these cities of varying densities and infrastructure, a pattern emerges which indicates an almost systematic economy of scale on a logarithmic best fit line. This means that when population increases or decreases, one can follow this line and get an idea of the energy consumption that will ensue. This is what Norman Foster pointed out during his lecture here in Manchester, relating it back to transport which was the main theme of the lecture. But this serves as an example of higher density economy of scale in terms of energy consumption/ capita.
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LOWER COSTS WITH HIGHER DENSITIES (TRANSPORT ENERGY)
80 HOUSTON
TRANSPORT RELATED ENERGY CONSUMPTION (GJ/CAPITA/YEAR)
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Manchester
PHOENIX
North American Cities
DETROIT DENVER
60
Austrailian Cities European Cities
LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BOSTON WASHINGTON
50
Asian Cities
CHICAGO NEW YORK
40 TORONTO
PERTH BRISBANE MELBOURNE SYDNEY
30
20
FRANKFURT HAMBURG STOCKHOLM ZURICH BRUSSELS PARIS LONDON MUNICH BERLIN VIENNA COPENHAGEN TOKYO AMSTERDAM SINGAPORE
10
HONG KONG MOSCOW
0 0
50
100
150
200
URBAN DENSITY (CITIZEN/HECTARE)
71
250
300
2.2.5 MANCHESTER CORRIDOR URBAN DENSITY HISTORY HISTORICALLY, MANCHESTER POPULATION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE & DECREASE & A RECENT INCREASE AGAIN. During the industrial revolution, Manchester was a rapidly expanding city as it was at the centre of industrial progress in the UK. Speaking to Ann Taylor from Manchester City Council, it seems that over the course of the previous century there has been a slight decline as we moved from an industry-based economy to a service-based economy with a decrease in Manchester population of 350,000 between 1951 & 2001. However, since 2001, there has been a steady increase in population as Manchester is put back on the map with events such as the Commonwealth Games of 2001. The Manchester Corridor is also at the heart of this bringing in a flood of student population as well as foreign investment. All of this can be seen in the built environment through urban building density. Indeed, the maps here describe a reducing urban density until 1996 and then an increased one until present day showing the relationship between population density and the building density that surrounds us.
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1969
1973
National Grid Map 1:10,000
National Grid Map 1:10,000
1996
2016
National Grid Map 1:10,000
Ordnance Survey Map
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2.3 Technology Data
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2.3.1 GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR IS AT THE CENTRE OF MODERN TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION PUTTING IT AT THE FOREFRONT OF GLOBAL INNOVATION. Plotting technological evolution over time has enabled the understanding of technological trends that have led to the technological present. Today, ubiquitous computing has almost become a reality in everyone’s life, certainly so for citizens on the Manchester Corridor. Ubiquitous computing consists of wearable technology, smartphones etc. The smartphones of today have significantly more computing power than last decade’s supercomputers. Furthermore, almost any item can be 3D printed with today’s technology, including food and construction materials. Although it is not yet efficient and cheap enough to enter into the mainstream built environment or citizen’s day-to-day life, this technology has the potential to revolutionise the built environment and the way we live.
76
2004 1990
Discovery of Graphene Andre Geim & Kostya Novoselov at The University of Manchester
Internet
1973
Mobile Telephone
1901 Radio
1927
1831
1961
Electricity
Space Travel
1876
Television
Telephone
1936
1950
Universal Computing Machine Alan Turing at The University of Manchester
Personal Computer
77
2.3.2 EXPONENTIAL COMPUTING POWER COMPUTING POWER INCREASES EXPONENTIALLY EVERY YEAR IN A RUNAWAY REACTION, AT A FASTER PACE THAN WE CAN UNDERSTAND. The graph on the left shows the exponential “runaway reaction� of price-performance of computing. This data is not easily analysed because computing power evolves exponentially and becoming cheaper and cheaper, resembling an infinetely exponential chart when plotted conventionally. Therefore the price-performance data is best understood using a semi-logarithmic plot as seen in the graph on the right. What this means is that computing is becoming more and more affordable to all citizens as it has become more and more powerful. This is what has led to ubiquitous computing for almost all citizens in the world, and certainly for those on the Manchester Corridor.
78
ALL HUMAN BRAINS
COMPUTING PRICE/PERFORMANCE (CALCULATIONS PER SECOND PER £750)
10
COMPUTING PRICE/PERFORMANCE OVER TIME all
20
10 18 10 16
ONE HUMAN BRAIN
10 14 10 12
ONE MOUSE BRAIN
10 10 10
8
ONE INSECT BRAIN
10 6 10 4 10 2 Electromechanical
1 -2 10
Relay
-2
Vacuum Tube
10 -4
Transistor
10 -6
Integrated Circuit
1900
1920
1940
1960 TIME (CALENDAR YEAR)
79
1980
2000
2016
2.3.3 COMPUTATING POWER THEN & NOW WE ARE CARRYING IN OWR POCKETS £ 190,000 WORTH OF COMPUTING POWER (IN 80’S MONEY)
In the past 30 years we have seen the vast popularisation of computing power. Its not that computers are everywhere and everybody has them, nor is it that they are cheap. The issue is that that computers are exponentially becoming smaller and smaller. So much so that we are starting to put them in everything imaginable, from toasters to cars. The vast and increasing ubiquity of increasingly powerful computers, which are in turn constantly shrinking, means that very soon the average priced computer will overtake the human brain in calculations per second.
80
The IBM PC 1981
The iPhone 7 2016
16.5’’
5.5’’
4,460,000,000 CPS £ 799 £1.79 x 10-5 per 100 CPS
126,600 CPS £ 3899 (in today’s pounds) £3 per 100 CPS
81
UNIVAC 1: 1951’S SUPER COMPUTER DID 1.43 CPS
82
83
2.3.4 THE INTERNET OF THINGS: A REALITY? THE INTERNET OF THINGS IS PACING THE WAY TOWARD UBIQUITOUS COMPUTING THROUGH WEARABLES, SMARTPHONES & TABLETS. In 2008, a transformation the world by surprise. The internet of things overtook the internet of people. In 2013 the ratio was at least 2:1. Companies such as IBM are exploiting the data collected by these products now connected to the internet. Ubiquitous computing, which is the act of always being connected to a computer is almost a reality through wearable technologies, smartphones and tablets being commonplace. This is becoming a major infrastructure in contemporary cities.
“Grad students at MIT plugged their coffee pot into Facebook. But at some point the Internet of people gave way to the Internet of Things.” (Townsend, 2013).
84
2:1
1:1
2008
2013
85
“Cities have the capability of providing som only when, they are created by
Due to the information revolution we are n are a component within the mind of the sm shape the future. Can this enable us to cre or will this information just supply governin cont
86
mething for everybody, only because, and y everybody.” (Jacobs, 1961).
no longer just a cog in a vast machine. We mart city itself. And this gives us power to eate a “Great” city like Jacobs talks about, ng bodies and decision makers with more trol?
87
2.3.5 MEASURE OF VIRTUAL REALITY IMMERSIVENESS MEASURING THE IMMERSIVENESS OF A VIRTUAL REALITY IS NOT STRAIGHTFORWARD SO AN INDEX INVOLVING THE SENSES IS DEVELOPED. The five sense - visual, audio, haptic, smell and taste - can be used as criteria to measure the imersiveness of a virtual reality technology numerically. Considering that the visual sense was the first that was conquered in 1968 by Ivan Sutherland, it goes that the four other senses would also have to be simulated in order to experience fully immersive virtual reality. The challenge presented to virtual reality today is haptics, the sense of touch. Whilst the brain can be tricked to perceive movement at 30 frames per second visually, in order to perceive touch as realistic, it is closer to a few hundred updates per second. This immersiveness index allows virtual reality systems over history to be assessed and given a numerical value between zero and five in terms of quality.
88
SENSE-BASED MEASUREMENT
MINIMUM STANDARD
1
2
3
4
5
VISUAL
AUDIO
HAPTIC
SMELL
TASTE
30 frames per second
100 Db signal to noise ratio
500 cues per seconds
Unknown
Unknown
3-dimensional sound perception
Tracking system for movement which is perceived in real-time
Unknown
Unknown
HARDWARE Tracking system CONDITION to view 3dimensional space
1968
The Ultimate Display Ivan Sutherland
2011
Oculus Rift Prototype Palmer Luckey
COMING SOON
COMING SOON
COMING SOON
N. D.
N. D.
N. D.
Not yet achieved but under development
89
Not yet achieved
Not yet achieved
2.3.6 VIRTUAL REALITY PRICEIMMERSIVENESS VIRTUAL REALITY’S IMMERSIVENESS SHOWS LINEAR GROWTH WHILST PRICE SHOWS EXPONENTIAL INCREASE AND LOGARITHMIC DECREASE. Today, virtual reality has reached a point where it can trick the brain visually and acoustically. There is some progress with haptics but it is not yet an immersive experience for that sense because of the amount of updates per second needed to simulate the sense as one experiences it in reality. With the immersiveness index explained previously, one can see that when a virtual reality technology succeeds at simulating a single sensory experience, achieving one level of immersiveness within the index, there is a sudden rise in the price which is almost immediately logarithmically leveled out. It is for this reason that semi-immersive virtual reality technologies are now affordable to the average citizen today. Two levels of immersiveness have been reached and there are three remaining in order to reach full immersion.
90
10
VIRTUAL REALITY PRICE-IMMERSIVENESS GEN 01
GENERATION 01 OF VIRTUAL REALITY TECHNOLOGY
GEN 02
5
8
4
7 6
3
5 4
2
3 2
1
1 0 1960
0 1970
1980
1990
TIME (CALENDAR YEARS)
91
2000
2010
IMMERSIVENESS (IMMERSIVENESS INDEX)
PRICE (HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF POUNDS/INFLATION RATE)
9
VIRTUAL REALITY IN THE WORK PLACE
92
93
94
2.4 Building Scale Data
95
EDUCATIONAL BUILDING HISTORY ALONG THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR
1840-1910 1960-1970 1972-1980 1985-2001 2005-2013 No data
96
97
2.4.2 EDUCATIONAL BUILDING OCCUPANCY WHICH BUILDINGS ARE OVERCROWDED AND WHICH ARE UNDERUSED ON BOTH UNIVERSITY CAMPUSES ON THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR? The hourly building occupancy within the University of Manchester and Manchester Metropolitan University buildings within the Manchester Corridor on an average term-time day is displayed in the animation. From this, one can determine which of the buildings on campus are over-crowded or underused at present. Those which are under-used can be shut off during potential power surge scenarios to serve the ones that may be over-crowded and in need of an excess of energy.
98
00:00-7:00
OXFORD ROAD
8:00
OXFORD ROAD
9:00
OXFORD ROAD
10:00
OXFORD ROAD
11:00
OXFORD ROAD
12:00
OXFORD ROAD
13:00
OXFORD ROAD
14:00
OXFORD ROAD
1500+ 15:00
OXFORD ROAD
16:00
17:00
OXFORD ROAD
OXFORD ROAD
18:00
1001-1500 OXFORD ROAD
601-1000 401-600
1500+
201-400
1001-1500
101-200
601-1000
0-100
401-600 19:00
OXFORD ROAD
20:00
21:00-23:00
OXFORD ROAD
99
OXFORD ROAD
201-400 101-200
ENERGY CONSUMPTION/FUEL kWh
2
1400 kWh 1000 kWh
ACADEMIC YEAR
12-13
4
5 1
31
1
16
200 kWh
14-15 CAVENDISH
08-09
08-09
6 -1 15
-1 15
14-15
14 13 13
6 -1 15 1
08-09
09
15
08-09
0
2
-1
-1
6
6 -1
14-15
2
GEOFFREY MANTON
-1
12-13
11
13
-1 2
10-11
14-15
10-11
0
15
-1
-1
6
09 14-15
13
4
6 -1 15 14-15
-1
11
2
13
-1
4 -1
11
12-13
100
1 3-
1
14
11
10-11
12-13
12-13
15
10-11
0
14-15
0
-1
4 -1
-1
09
GROSVENOR
12-13
6
14-15
4 1 3-
12-13
09
11 -1 2
08-09
4 -1
6 -1 15 14-15
2
13
2
-1
14
-1
2
-1
11
10-11
08-09
13
-1
08-
RIGHTON
CHATHAM/BENZIE
ORMO
11
0
15
10-11
10-11
11
10-11
-1
14-15
0
0
09
4 -1 3 1
-1
-1
08-09
0
09
STUDENT UNION
-1
08-09
09
09
6
THE SALUTATION
CAMBRIDGE HALL
12-13
08-09
600 kWh
12-13
-1
1800 kWh
ENERGY CONSUMPTION/GRID kWh
-1
09
2200 kWh
11
0
10-11
MMU BUILDING ENERGY USE
BUSINESS SCHOOL 08-09
15 -1 6
0 -1 09
JOHN DALTON 15 -1 6 14-15
4 1
12
10-11
11 -
1 3-
0 -1 09
10-11
14-15
08-09
12-13
6 -1
13 0
15
-1
6
4 -1
12-13
09
09
1 3-
4 13
2
-1
11
1 12-13
-1
4 -1
2
-1
11
OLD STUDENT UNION 08-09
09
12-13
12
4 1 31 12-13
0 -1
-1
6
09 10-11
14-15
15
11 2
-1
1
-1 2
08-09
4
11
MABEL TYLECOTE
1 3-
10-11
14-15
0
15
-1
-1
2
6
14-15
10-11
11
10-11
10-11
14-15
0
0
-1
09
15
-1
-1
2
08-09
08-09
-09
-1
BELLHOUSE
OND
11
ALL SAINTS
12-13
101
2.4.4 PUBLIC SPACES ON THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR MMU HAS A LACK OF PUBLIC SPACES WHEN COMPARED WITH UoM AND THE REST OF MANCHESTER.
A close inspection of the public spaces along the corridor, reveials that MMU has considerably less public spaces around their campus when compared to UoM. There is also something to be said about the nature of the public spaces. UoM seems to prefer open unbounded spaces with a combination of paving and grass carving out paths towards buildings. All Saints Park in contrast is bounded in its periphery by a wall and its gates close every night.
102
All Saints Park.
Alan Turing Building.
UoM Library.
Brunswick St.
103
104
105
THE WORLD IS UPLOADING ITS SELF ON THE INTERNET Ever since the 20th of December when Tim Berners-Lee launched the first ever public website the number of internet users has increased so much to include almost half of the worlds population. In 2004 facebook was launched, it is now the most popular social network in the world. It now has 1.7 billion users which is approximatelly quarter of the worlds population. More than the populations of the whole of the African continent and the USA.
The ‘Internet’ Vint Cerf, Robert Kahn Coin 'Internet' 1ST INTERNATIONAL CONNECTION UCL connects to the ARPANET EMAIL Ray Tomlinson implements the first email program on ARAPNET ARPANET Connects UCLA with Stanford
1965
1970
IETF the first meeting of the Internet Engineering Task Force IP on the ARPANET ARPAnet Transitions to TCP/IP
CSNET Lawrence Landweber Creates Computer Science Network
1975
106
EUnet First Public WAN Initiated
1980
WWW. Internet opens to the public WWW. Tim Berners-Lee Creates WWW at CERN 25 Countries Connected to the NSFNET
1985
Surpases
E
MOSAIC web browser helps popularise the internet
T
1990
1
WORLD
7.4
billionpeople
FACEBOOK 1.788 billion users
INSTAGRAM 500 million users TWITTER 317 million users
WIKIPEDIA Jimmy Wales Launches Wikipedia
0 users
CC The Creative GOOGLE Commons is Is Launched built
YouTube Begins storing and retrieving videos CRAIGSLIST Uber MYSPACE Classified adds starts distrupting first populat move to the the cab industry social media internet site iPhone First multimedia EMAIL RSS phone postal Aaron Shwartz mail creates RSS TWITTER Is Launched TINDER BLOGS Instagram FACEBOOK The first popular Mark Zuckerberg web publishing launches tools appear Facebook
1995
2000
2005
2010
3.224 billon internet users
Europe & C. asia
651 million internet users
E. Asia & Pacific
1.135 billion internet users
L. America & Caribbean 344 million internet users South Asia
412 million internet users
N. America 271 million internet users M. East & N. Africa 185 million internet users Sub-Saharan Africa 224 million internet users 2015
107
TOTAL
2.4.6 UPLOADING THE SOCIAL SOCIAL INTERACTIONS ARE MOVING TO THE CYBER-SPACE
The advent of the social medium has been the in-vogue topic of conversation for so long that it has developed into a discourse in its own right. The issues around this subject are multiple, ranging from total renunciation to complete aspousal. How will the increasing use of social media affect the way we conduct our lives in the future? How will humans adapt to this new technology and finally how will it affect the spaces which we inhabit?
108
@ @@ @@@
CYBER-SPACE
@@ upload
PHYSICAL SPACE
109
BUILDINGS AND TWEETS An attempt to start understanding the Manchester Corridor through the prism of social media. We built a bot which collects tweets from a spefied geographic location. We collected 10,000 tweets from the Manchester corridor for a period of a week. Using a sorting algorythm we identified which buildings of the MMU campus have the biggest and least presence on the medium.
All Saints 525 tweets
Mabel Tylecote Righton Ormond Grosvenor 0 tweets 19 tweets 19 tweets 23 tweets
110
B
John Daton 28 tweets
Benzie and Chatham 460 tweets
Cavendish 81 tweets
Student Union 325 tweets
Geoffrey Manton 111 tweets
John Dalton West 114 tweets
111
Business School 160 tweets
Sarah Burslem 202 tweets
112
113
03
Global and Local T Shape the Mancheste
3.1 Envi 3.2 Populat 3.3 Tech 3.4 Buildi 114
3
Trends Which Will er Corridor in the Future
ironment tion/Density hnology ing Scale 115
3.0.1 EXTRAPOLATING THE FUTURE OF THE CORRIDOR THERE ARE FIVE SCALES OF DATA THAT CAN BE USED IN ORDER TO ASCERTAIN THE SITUATION IN 2045.
In order to assess a future scenario, there are five time scales to examine that can affect it. These are as follows: - The distant past where the momentum of certain trends can be studied, going back 450 thousand years for climate datasets but mainly focusing on the 19th century. - The past where trends can be observed that affect the present can be observed throughout the 20th century. - The present where the impact of the trends observed on the built environment can be observed and studied in 2016. - The future scenario in 2045 where the trends studied can be extrapolated to. - The far future which will affect some of the conditions in the extrapolated scenario as a result of anticipation of the shape of things to come.
116
EXTRAPOLATION LOGIC -450,000 YEARS
20th CENTURY
2016
2045
2100
DISTANT PAST
PAST
PRESENT
FUTURE
FAR FUTURE
WHAT?
Identifying the momentum of some of the present trends studied.
Identifying and studying recent trends.
What the world and the Manchester Corridor looks like today.
The future scenario which this project is setting.
The anticipated future.
WHY?
The momentum of these trends can provide a basis on their potential to affect the future as well as the scale of impact.
Recent trends are inevitably affecting present conditions and will likely affect the future.
Following trends up until present day and studying how they have transformed the physical environment is necessary in order to extrapolate them.
It is important to extrapolate data up to this point to form a basis on which to set the future conditions.
A lot of what happens in the future will be in anticipation of what is to follow in the same way as what happens in the present is in anticipation of the future.
117
3.0.2 REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN ORDER TO EXTRAPOLATE THE DATASETS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS WAS APPLIED TO THEM FOR ACCURATE SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS. Regression analysis consists of using data points on a graph to draw an accurate best-fit line which can be used to extend these trends beyond the given data points and into the future. The distance between the data points and the line can then be measured in order to ascertain how accurate the line is and how constant the data is which is called the “error of prediction”. The more constant the data, the more accurate the extrapolation. There are two types of regression analysis that we will be applying depending on the datasets, one is linear which renders a linear line and the other is polynomial which renders a curved line.
118
Y X m A
= Y value
Linear Regression
= X value = Slope of line (dy/dx) = Line intercepts the Y axis
Equation of the Regression Line
Error of Prediction
Y=mX+A
Y value of line - Y value of point
15
Y
10 5 0 0
1
2
3
4
5
X
Polynomial Regression Equation of the Regression Line 2
k
Y = b 0 + b 1 X 1 + b 2 X 2 + ...b k X k 15
Y
X = X value Y = Y value b = Regression Coefficient k = Order of degree b0 = Y intersept
10 5 0 0
1
2
3 X
119
4
5
120
3.1 Environmental Data
121
3.1.1 LINEAR REGRESSION APPLIED REGRESSION ANALYSIS IS USED TO ELIMINATE & EVALUATE THE ACCURATE SET OF VARIABLES WHICH FORMS THE BASIS OF THE FUTURE SCENARIO. Regression analysis allows us to compare the effects of variables measured on different scales, such as the effect of temperature drop over time in Manchester from 20102015. The benefits help us to eliminate and evaluate the most accurate set of variables to be used for building extrapolative models which will be the basis of generating a future scenario for the Manchester Corridor in 2045.
122
Average Annual Temperature of Manchester from 2010 to 2015
Error of Prediction Equation of the Regression Line
Y of line - Y of point 8.2 - 7.4 = 0.8
Y=mX+A Y = -0.1X + 8.4
Y = 8.2
Degree Celcius
15
Y = 7.4
Error of Prediction = 0.07
10 5 0 0
1
2
3
Years After 2010
Y X m A
= Y value = X value = Slope of line (dy/dx) = Line intercepts the Y axis
123
4
5
3.1.2 FUTURE CLIMATE EXTRAPOLATIONS MANCHESTER’S FUTURE CLIMATE WILL BE DEEPLY AFFECTED BY CURRENT GLOBAL TRENDS OF CO2 EMISSIONS ASWELL AS LARGER SCALE PATTERNS. Based on larger scale data going back 450,000 years, massive interglacial periods can be observed. It seems we are at the end of the latest interglacial period, meaning the world is slowly plunging into the next ice age, a process that can be accelerated due to climate change. It seems that precipitation is going to become a serious issue for Manchester as well as extreme cold temperatures over the winter periods. The built environment on the Manchester Corridor is going to have to adapt to these large trends. These extrapolations have been extended to 2100 because the 2045 scenario will not only be characterised by its present conditions, it will be a product of its own projected future. Meaning the built environment will not only have to adapt to its present conditions but also in anticipation of what is to follow.
124
Temperature Over the Past 420,000 Years & Future Prediction
Temperature Change (°C)
6 4
Interglacials
2
Ice Age
0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10
Rainfall (% of 1961-2010 Mean Average)
450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000
0
-5000
Rainfall as a % of the 1961 - 2010 Average & Future Prediction
460 420 380 340 300 260 220 180 140 100 60 1900
15
50000
1940
1980
2020
2060
2100
Average Annual Temperature of Manchester from 1970 to 2015 & Future Prediction
Degree Celcius (°C)
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 1980
2000
2020
2040
125
2060
2080
2100
3.1.3 MANCHESTER IS GOING TO GET COLDER BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION, IN 2045 MANCHESTER’S CLIMATE IS GOING TO BECOME EXTREME, WITH ARCTIC WINTERS & TROPICAL SUMMERS. The scenario for a Manchester Corridor by 2045 forecast here is one of extremes. Global warming is causing the planet’s average temperature to increase. However it also has knock-on effects which are often not explored. One such knock-on effect is the Gulf Stream effect stopping, which is the reason the UK’s climate is mild (explained further in the next section). What this means is that the UK will actually be much colder in the winter, whilst maintaining that increase in temperature caused by global warming during the summer. The result is an extreme climate characterised by arctic winters and tropical summers. This creates the need for more enclosed lives, sealed environments where climate can be regulated to maintain the comfort of the citizens along the Manchester Corridor.
126
20
20
20
10
10
10
0
0
0
Manchester’s current annual temperature
Manchester’s annual temperature in 2045 due to Global Warming
-10
Manchester’s annual temperature if the Gulf Stream were to stop.
Regression analysis to make future predictions on Manchester’s annual temperature
30 20 10 0
Sep Oct N ug
b
Jun
Jul
A
Maximum temperature Current temperature Minimin temperature
127
Mar Apr M
Regression analysis extrapolation
Fe
ay
ov
-10 Dec Jan
3.1.3 MANCHESTER IS GOING TO GET WETTER MANCHESTER IN 2045 WILL BE SUBJECT TO REGULAR FLOODS AND HEAVY RAINFALL/SNOW WHICH THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT HAS TO ADAPT TO. What characterises Manchester’s weather is also one of the biggest environmental threats it is going to have to face in a projected scenario to 2045. Yearly precipitation seems to be increasing at an alarming rate with two major floods in the last year. Therefore, an equally extreme increase in precipitation can be expected for 2045, meaning the city will be subject to regular floods. This is another important environmental force that the built environment on the Manchester Corridor will have to prepare for. In conjunction with an extreme climate scenario described previously, one can expect that the environment of Manchester will become less and less liveable if citizens want to retain the climatic comfort they have been accostumed to in the past. Met Of ce (2016) Climate: observations, projections and impacts [online] Available from: http://www.metof ce.gov. uk/climate-guide/science/uk/obs-projections-impacts
128
Manchester Average Precipitation 2015 & Extrapolated Precipitation 2045
180 160
Precipitation (mm)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20
129
1 in 100 year events
Dec
In September 2016 30mm of rainfall fell in 1 hours causing Manchester’s flood defenses to fail. This was the highest value of rainfall per hour in the past 100 year.
Nov
30
Oct
Sep
50
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
MAr
Extrapolated 2045
Feb
Jan
2015
33
1622
Due to climate change it is predicted that 1 in 100 year events will happen twice as often and could be up to 40% worse. In the past year we have experienced 2 x 1 in 100 year events.
2015 Boxing Day floods where 130mm of rainfall fell in 48 hours causing Manchester’s flood defenses to fail. At times 16mm fell per hour.
MANCHESTER SEPTEMBER 2016 FLOODING
GLOBAL IMPORTANC
130
CE OF THE CORRIDOR
131
132
3.2 Building/Density Data
133
3.2.1 FUTURE UK POPULATION INCREASE THE POPULATON OF THE UK IS INCREASING
Allowing for natural population increase the population of the UK is expected to rise to over 70 mil by 2061. The majority of the UK’s population is living in cities, which will bear most of the strain to perform in order to accomodate the increase in density.
134
The population of the UK from 1951 to 2061 87.5
Population in millions
70.0
52.5
35.0 1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
Years 1951 to 2061
135
2021
2031
2041
2051
2061
3.2.2 GREATER MANCHESTER POPULATION INCREASE THE POPULATION OF MANCHESTER IS PROJECTED TO REACH 3 MIL BY 2050
Manchester’s post decline recovery is having currently working. It has been reported that the city is growing faster than Paris Tokyo and Dubai (Williams, 2015). Manchester’s council is expecting a great rise in population over the next years. In anticipation it has planned the addition of 60,000 new homes to the city. The real estate house Chestertons (2016) in its current report estimates that 150,000 new jobs will be created in Manchester over the next 20 years. The projected economic prosperity is expected to fuel the influx of people to the city.
136
The population of Greater Manchester from 1011 to 2016 3.1 3.0 2.9
Population in millions
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2011
2.4 1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
Years 1911 to 2021
137
2011
2021
2031
2041
2051
3.2.3 FUTURE MMU & UoM POPULATION INCREASE MANCHESTER’S POPULATION IS INCREASING AND THIS TREND IS SET TO CONTINUE DESPITE THE RISE IN MOOCS. One of the major factors for Manchester’s increasing population is an influx of students with two world renowned universities on the Manchester Corridor alone. Both universities are seeing a recent increase in numbers, despite the increase in student fees. This is a strong suggestion that this trend may continue into the future as the world and UK population increase also. Indeed, the student population coming into Manchester are from all over the world, being a multicultural institution. The Manchester Corridor in 2045 is going to have to accomodate to this influx of student population which it is already preparing for with new University of Manchester developments being undertaken along Oxford Road as well as the former BBC site being developed into high-rise student accomodation called Circle Square by Bruntwood. In 2045, it is likely that the university and developers again act on anticipation of increasing numbers.
138
1990
£9000
£3000
100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
£1000
Number of Students
Increase in UOM and MMU Student from 1990 - 2100
2010
2030
2050 Year
Extrapolated UOM students Extrapolated MMU students UOM student population MMU student population
139
2070
2090
MMU’S MABEL TYLECO REDEVELOPED ALON
140
OTE BUILDING BEING NG OXFORD ROAD
141
142
3.3 Technological Data
143
3.3.1 GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION FUTURE SUPERINTELLIGENCE, VIRTUAL REALITY AND HYPERSTRUCTURES WILL SHAPE THE FUTURE IN 2045 THROUGH AI, NANOTECHNOLOGY & GRAPHENE According to Kurzweil’s theory of accelerating returns (2005), technological progress is exponential meaning that the future is closer than one might think. There are three driving forces behind the technological extrapolations in this project which are AI, nanotechnology and graphene in the construction industry. Kelly (2016) outlines 12 ways in which technology will develop over the next 30 years. Essentially, these are that we will be depending on unstoppable streams in realtime for everything, shift society from one where we own assets to one where we will have access to services at all times, collaborating at mass-scale, immersing ourselves inside our computers to maximize their engagement, employing total surveillance for the benefit of citizens and essentially constructing a planetary system connecting all humans and machines into a global matrix.
144
2045
2040
Runaway Artificial Superintelligence Fading distinction between Man & Machine A planetary system connecting all humans and machines into a global matrix.
Superintelligence Citizens spend a lot of time in fully immersive virtual reality
2039
Terabyte internet speeds Nanomachines enable fully immersive virtual reality Manufacturing work has largely disappeared
2020
Citizens wear devices that track and record their conversation
2021
2017
2030
Computers have a sense of smell
3D printed Graphene enables more efficient paper thin buildings, 10 times stronger than reinforced concrete Quantum computing
2019
HD bionic eyes are on sale
Nuclear fusion power Self-driving autonomous vehicles Digital currency is universally accepted 3D molecular computing
2025
Advanced nanotechnology Tracking technology is embedded within more than half of the population Computer with the performance of a human brain costs ÂŁ750 (10^16 CPS) and citizens can upload the content of their brains to it
2029
The human brain has been mapped Strong AI is achieved Citizens log in directly from their brain Autonomous robotics
145
3.3.2 FUTURE EXPONENTIAL COMPUTING POWER BY 2045, £750 WILL BUY AS MUCH COMPUTING POWER AS ALL HUMAN BRAINS COMBINED (10^22), STREAMLINING HUMAN ACTIVITY. In order to extrapolate technological trends, the exponential nature of technological evolution lends well to a semilogarithmic plot. In this instance, price-performance of computing through time as presented in the previous section but extrapolated to the year 2045. What this means is that AI, or as Kelly (2016) would call it, “artificial smartness” is accessible to everyone by 2045. When Kelly talks about artificial smartness, he is talking about a different kind of intelligence than the biological one which is devoid of consciousness. It is a more efficient form of intelligence which will streamline the processes of human existence as it already has started to do so today with GPS technology available at our fingertips for instance. Super cheap computing will enable all products to be enhanced by AI which will lead to an internet of things 2.0 type of scenario.
146
ALL HUMAN BRAINS
COMPUTING PRICE/PERFORMANCE (CALCULATIONS PER SECOND PER £750)
10
COMPUTING PRICE/PERFORMANCE OVER TIME all
20
10 18 10 16
ONE HUMAN BRAIN
10 14 10 12
ONE MOUSE BRAIN
10 10 10
8
ONE INSECT BRAIN
10 6 10 4 10 2
Key 1 1 -2
Electromechanical
Key 1
Relay
10
-2
Key10 1
-4
Key 1
Vacuum Tube Transistor
Key 1 -6
Integrated Circuit
10
Key 1
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
Key 1 Key 1
TIME (CALENDAR YEAR)
147
2000
2020
2040
3.3.3 VIRTUAL REALITY PRICEIMMERSIVENESS FUTURE PROGRESS IN ADVANCED NANOTECHNOLOGY WILL BE KEY IN UNLOCKING FULLY IMMERSIVE VIRTUAL REALITY BY 2045. Virtual reality has evolved greatly over the last 56 years and still needs to go some way before it becomes fully immersive. What is becoming apparent is that virtual reality is becoming logarithmically cheaper and only peaks when a degree of immersiveness is reached before the cost is again logarithmically stabilised. A degree of immersiveness is reached when we have managed to simulate one of the five senses in a way that can realistically trick the human brain. Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally cancelling out the “real� world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience but could also augment reality.
148
10
VIRTUAL REALITY PRICE-IMMERSIVENESS G.00
GENERATION 01 OF VIRTUAL REALITY
G.02
G.03 04
GEN. 05
5
8
4
7 6
3
5 4
2
3 2
1
1 0 1960
0 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
TIME (CALENDAR YEARS)
149
2020
2030
2040
IMMERSIVENESS (IMMERSIVENESS INDEX)
PRICE (HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF POUNDS/INFLATION RATE)
9
3.3.4 THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET OF THINGS EVEN AS EARLY AS 2020, WE WILL SEE A DRASTIC CHANGE IN HOW WE USE PRODUCTS AS THEY WILL BECOME CONNECTED. By 2020, there will be 10 times more thing connected to the internet than people. This is when the potential for truly smart cities will begin. More and more building elements will be cognified and automatic hyper efficient city systems put in place to optimise processes that in the past were detrimental to society and the environment. By 2045, the internet of things 2.0 can begin with things that are not only connected but also equipped with stong AI, meaning they can optimise their own processes and learn, generating cycles of self-improvement and “runaway” technologies that epitomised Kurzweil’s (2005) technological singularity scenario.
150
10:1
2:1 1:1 2008
2013
2020
151
THE INTERNET OF THINGS IS ALREADY HERE
152
153
154
3.4 Building Scale Data
155
3.4.1 FUTURE PLANNED DEVELOPMENTS MAJOR BUILDING DEVELOPMENTS PLANNED ALONG THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT 15 YEARS.
156
Under Construction Proposed Approved Approved Holding Planning Permission Proposed Holding Planning Permission Undeer Construction
157
CIRCLE SQUARE VISUALISATION ON THE FORMER BBC SITE ALONG OXFORD ROAD
158
159
3.4.2 FUTURE SUBTERRANEAN PLANNING APPLICATIONS THERE IS A GROWING TREND TO MOVE TO SUBTERRANEAN ACCOMODATION AS URBAN SPACE BECOMES LESS & LESS AVAILABLE IN LARGE CITIES IN THE UK. The past few decades have been characterised by an increase in basement living in the UK, notably in London. There is a general move to subterranean accomodation as urban space is becoming less and less available above ground. In Manchester, there is also a growing trend to live underground with an increasing number of subterranean planning application in Manchester. But this is not a trend that is limited to Manchester, with the world’s first “earthscraper” being designed for New Mexico’s central square which will be developed in the penultimate section of this document (Schilling, 2014).
160
Subterranean Planning Application in Manchester Over the Past 46 Years
Planning applications (hundreds)
4 3 2 1 0 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Time (Calendar Years)
161
2020
2030
2040
or rid or ter C an ch es M
Ci tyC
en tre
Ar dw ick
Th e
M os
sS
ide
Hu
lm e
ter an ch es M r ste ch e an M ter G
re a
cil h of n u ac o C e s ts er for ard he rs, 3 2 w c an cilo r’s 3 M e oun este h T 6 c ch 9 an M s
h ug
n
ta oli
ro o B
p
10
tro e m
162
ty rsi
H
ive n U r e t ust, itan s he n Tr pol c an atio etro l M und r M a r nt Fo ste e C HS che N an M sty r p e u iv Ar n U e h he T c an M Br
3.5 Policy and Political Data
163
3.5.1 GREATER MANCHESTER POLICY HIERARCHY ANALYSING 10 POLICIES AFFECTING MANCHESTER OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS.
The local, regional and national administrations of Manchester have ambitious plans for the city. Appart from channeling investment to the various handpicked projects the council sets out several target areas. One of those target areas is the Oxford road corridor or Manchester Corridor. Having assembled the key stakeholders of the area in a trust they have set out an agenda of what they want the future of Manchester and the Corridor to look like. They set out their key aims and criteria against which future planning applications will be assessed. The rich agenda aims towards environmental performance, enhanced connectivity and the positioning of Manchester as a regional, national and global player.
164
Greater Manchester
Manchester
The Manchester Corridor
CityCentre
Hulme
Ardwick
Moss Side
10 metropolitan Boroughs
The Manchester Council 96 councilors, 3 for each of Manchester’s 32 wards
Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Metropolitan University Arup The Universty of Manchester Manchester Metropolitan University Bruntwood Royal Northern College of Music Manchester City Council
165
3.5.2 FUTURE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR POLICY A TIMELINE OF GREATER MANCHESTER POLICIES THAT WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 15 YEARS.
166
Greater Manchester Devolution Agreement
Northern PowerhouseStrategy Corridor: Manchester Strategic Vision to 2025 Manchester City Centre Strategic Plan Former BBC, Oxford Road SRF GMS Greater Manchester Strategy Sustainability Appraisal Manchester Infrastructure Delivery Plan Manchester Core Strategy
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
GM Local Economic Assessment
Policies directly affecting the future of the Manchester Corridor
National/Regional
Local Policy
Environment
Infrastructure
Housing
Education
Transport
Economy
167
Greater Manchester Devolution Agreement
Powers will move from the central government to the Mayor of Greater Manchester . These powers include, more control of local transport, new planning powers, more economic powers, increased health budget and more freedom on ciminal justice and offender management.
Northern Powerhouse Strategy
The NP strategy will increase the funding available for education, transport and business for towns and cities in Northern England.
Former BBC, Oxford Road SRF
Manchester Core Strategy
Corridor: M Strategic Visio
A multi-institutional co stakeholders in the Ox aimed at channeling managing projects i culture, education, scie and transport in
Sustaina Appra
Planning Permission
The Strategic Regeneration Framework provides a vision for the regeneration of the Oxford Road Corridor and sets out the criteria against which applications for Planning permission will be assesed and considered
The MCS sets out a vision for Manchester to 2027. By tackling issues like, connectivity, environment, locality, commerce and culture. The strategy aims to transform Manchester into a hub for the Northwest.
168
Part of the MCS, the SA agenda which aims to of manchester, impro living, tackle povert environment and red footpr
Manchester on to 2020
ollaboration of key xford Road corridor g investment and in areas such as, ence and technology nfrastructure
ability aisal
A sets out a detailed grow the population ove the standard of ty and protect the duce Manchester’s rint.
Manchester City Centre Strategic Plan
Greater Manchester Strategy
“Corridor Manchester is economically the most important area within Greater Manchester, with more job creation potential than anywhere else” (Manchester City Council 2016) Manchester’s Strategic plan for the city centre aims at increasing the growth of the city by 2018 by increasing connectivity through the city, adressing environmental problems and lack of housing. It also identifies the corridor as one of the most important areas in Manchester.
The GMS aims at growing the city in order to make it competitive on an international level. Through strategic investments the strategy aims to bring Greater Manchester Manchester closer together and transform it into a worlwide hub.
Manchester Infrastructure Delivery Plan
GM Local Economic Assessment
The MIDP is a supporting document of the MCS. It sets out targets in the folowing sectors: Green infrastructure, energy, water management, community services, health, ICT/digital, transport and waste.
169
Acesses the urban factors which affect the Greater Manchester Economy and concludes that while Manchester’s economy is growing (predominantly in the services sector) there will be sufficient pressure to increase connectivity.
3.5.4 UK ELECTION TRENDS SHARE OF VOTES FOR THE THREE MAJOR PARTIES
170
UK Elections 1900 to 2015
Share of the Vote
100
50
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
Conservative Labour
171
1970
1980
1990
Liberal Democrats Other
2000
2010
2010
3.5.5 POTENTIAL POLITICAL DISRUPTORS BREXIT HAS BECOME A CATALYST FOR THE RISE IN RIGHT-WING POLITICS.
After a hard Brexit, two economic scenarios are considered here. Either it leads to economic decline, in which case Labour would probably rise to power. Either it has little noticeable impact or even benefits the economy, in which case Conservative would probably take UKIPs share of votes because it has succesfully carried the Brexit that UKIP voters hoped for. The situation here is the latter where the Conservatives hold on to their lead.
172
Potential Future Political Disruptors 100
Share of the Vote
36.9%
article 50 soft Brexit
climate change refugee crisis
economy endures 21.1%
50
hard Brexit
7.9%
30.4%
hard Brexit
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Conservative Labour
173
data over commodification reaction
post-Corbyn Labour 2030
Liberal Democrats Other
2040
04
Distruptors Whi the Future of 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 174
Disr Dis Disr Disr Disr
4
ich Will Shape the Corridor
ruptor 1 sruptor 2 ruptor 3 ruptor 4 ruptor 5 175
4.0 OVERVIEW OF FUTURE DISRUPTORS THE FIVE MAJOR DISRUPTORS THAT WILL AFFECT THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR ARE THE GULF STREAM, DISPLACEMENT, NANOTECHNOLOGY, AI & GRAPHENE. The buildings along the Manchester Corridor will have to adapt to extreme climate conditions if the Gulf Stream effect were to stop due to global warming. Global warming will also lead sea levels to increase meaning a large number of coastal UK citizens being displaced and seeking refuge in Manchester as one of the largest cities. There are large momentums that can be followed in technological trends which suggest several disruptors to come. One of which is a nanotechnological revolution, allowing citizens to upgrade their brain with nanomachines. Another is artificial smartness embedded into most things from consumer products to building elements thanks to hyper performant super cheap computing. Finally, 3D-printed graphene will revolutionise the built environment in the same way that reinforced concrete did in the previous century which enabled the Modernists to realise their grand schemes.
176
FIVE DISRUPTORS THAT WILL EFFECT THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR IN 2045 2030
2030-2045
2025
2040
2030
DISRUPTOR 01
DISRUPTOR 02
DISRUPTOR 03
DISRUPTOR 04
DISRUPTOR 05
THE GULF STREAM EFFECT ENDS
RISING SEA LEVELS CAUSE PEOPLE TO BE DISPLACED
ADVANCED NANO TECHNOLOGY
ARTIFICIAL SMARTNESS
3D-PRINTED GRAPHENE
The Gulf Stream effect is the reason the UK benefits from a mild climate. Global warming may cause this effect to stop, meaning the climate will be subject to seasonal extremes
Sea levels could rise by 2m in 2030 to 7m by 2045, displacing 6.2 million people within the Northern coast of England which will seek refuge in Manchester specifically as a nearby large city.
Supercomputers the size of 100nm will mean longer lifespans if used medically. They can be embedded within the human brain and unlock superintelligence but also fully immersive virtual reality and an interconnected system of humans.
Hyper performant super cheap computing will mean AI will be embedded into everything, from consumer products to building elements. Things will be connected and smart in an Internet of Things 2.0 scenario.
Buildings will be efficiently constructed with high tensile and compressive strength, meaning megastructures can be built above and below ground.
177
178
4.1 Disruptor 1: Gulf Stream Stops, 2030
179
4.1.1 IMPACT THE GULF STREAM HAS ON THE UK THE GULF STREAM IS THE REASON FOR MILD SEASONS. WITHOUT IT, THE CLIMATE WOULD BE MORE EXTREME WITH SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS. Surface water in the North Atlantic is cooled by winds from the Arctic. It becomes more salty and more dense and sinks to the ocean floor. The cold water then moves towards the equator where it will warm slowly. To replace the cold equator-bound water, the Gulf Stream moves warm water from the Gulf of Mexico north into the Atlantic. As the ice in the Arctic melts more fresh water is pumped into the sea. This fresh water will alter the density of the sea water around the Arctic meaning it will not sink to the ocean floor. This slows the Gulf Stream down and could even stop it. If the Gulf Stream stopped, the average temperature in the UK would drop by 10°C. This means that Manchester’s climate would be characterised by arctic winters because of this and a gradual increase into an ice age as well as tropical summers due to global warming.
180
Global Temperatures Increase
Fresh Water Increases
Arctic Ice Decreases
Salinity Decreases
181
Gulf Stream Speed Decreases
UK Temperatures Decreases
4.1.2 TEMPERATURE VS ENERGY CONSUMPTION DOES AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE MEAN A DECREASE IN ENERGY USE FOR MANCHESTER IF ENERGY SURGES OCCUR WHEN IT IS COLD? There are of course limitations with the extrapolative method. Not only does it not take into account disruptive events that would significantly alter the data, seemingly logical reasoning can lead to erroneous conclusions. In this case, because Manchester’s high energy use correlates with high energy use, one could logically assume that if the temperature increases then the energy uses diminishes like in this graph. However, looking at other cities that exhibit an extreme climate such as New York, this statement would prove to be wrong. New York has very cold winters and hot summers but has energy surges during the summer. Townsend (2013) explains that on the hottest day in the summer, New York sees a 40% in the whole city’s energy use. This energy surge peaks between 5pm and 7pm, showing that people are using air conditioning when coming home. An extreme climate would therefore actually mean a constant high energy use all year round for Manchester.
182
This prediction based on the gradient on the graphs is flawed due to the increased need of aircon in higher temperatures.
Energy Consumption (ktoe)
100,000
Maximum energy consumption due to increased need for heating.
94,000
80,000 Decreased energy consumption due to decreased need for heating in warming temperatures.
60,000 40,000 20,000
Degree Celcius
1970
1980
1990
2000
20002016
15,000 1 2050
5 10 14
15
High temperatures due to global warming.
183
Low temperatures due to the stopping of the Gulf Stream.
NEW YORK CITY USES MORE ENERGY ON HOT DAYS
184
185
186
4.2
Disruptor 2: Displacement of Citizens D ens Due to Rising Sea Levels
187
4.2.1 DISPLACEMENT OF CITIZENS IN THE UK SEA LEVEL RISE WILL CAUSE PEOPLE ALL AROUND THE WORLD TO BE DISPLACED WITH SEA EXPANSION, ESPECIALLY IN THE UK BECAUSE IT IS AN ISLAND. The UK will lose a significant amount of surface area with rising sea levels. Based on current population figures and depending on how much the sea level rises, there could be anywhere in between 2.4 and 45 million people displaced in the UK reclaiming large metropolitan areas such as London in some extreme scenario cases. This scenario assumes that there will be a 2m rise by 2030 and a subsequent 7m rise by 2045 due to global warming. GEOSCIENCE NEWS AND INFORMATION. 2016. Global Sea Level Rise Map. [ONLINE] Available at: http://geology. com/sea-level-rise/. [Accessed 8 December 2016].
188
2
7
60
Meter rise in sea level
Meter rise in sea level
Meter rise in sea level
Displacement of people: ≈
Displacement of people: ≈
Displacement of people: ≈
2.4 million
16 million
45 million
189
4.2.2 CITIZENS RELOCATING TO GREATER MANCHESTER A LARGE PROPORTION OF DISPLACED CITIZENS WILL RELOCATE TO MANCHESTER WHICH WILL MEAN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DENSITY. Taking into account natural population increase as well as displaced citizens relocating to Manchester as a major Northern city which has not been invaded by the rising sea levels, Manchester’s population will have almost tripled by 2045. Meaning that many of the design challenges faced in this future scenario will be similar to the megacities of today. Population and Migration (no date) How densely populated is your area? [online] Available from: http://www. neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc134_c/ index.html
190
2
7
Meter rise in sea level
Meter rise in sea level
Manchesters increase in population: ≈
Manchesters increase in population: ≈
0.75 million
4.5 million 191
CITIZENS WILL HAVE TO FLEE SITUATIONS LIKE THIS WITH RISING SEA LEVELS
GLOBAL IMPORTANC
192
CE OF THE CORRIDOR
193
4.2.3 GREATER MANCHESTER FUTURE URBAN DENSITY BY 2045, WITH NATURAL POPULATION INCREASE & DISPLACEMENT OF PEOPLE, THERE WILL BE 10.5 MILLION CITIZENS IN GREATER MANCHESTER. With a population of 10.5 million and a surface area of 1276 square kilometres, Greater Manchester’s population density will be 8230 citizens per square metre, which is a similar density to Mexico City with 8400 citizens per square kilometre. Studying Mexico City’s current building density can give us an idea of what is forecast for Greater Manchester. The Manchester Corridor is a lot denser now than the rest of Greater Manchester and so studying the densest areas of Mexico City will provide a model for what the Manchester Corridor will look like in 2045, purely in terms of floor area ratio and the massing of buildings. Essentially, this scenario proposes that Manchester will have become a megacity by 2045.
194
GREATER MANCHESTER 2016-2045 Current estimated population:
2.77M
Natural population increase:
0.33M
Displaced people in Northern England coastal regions relocating to Greater Manchester:
4.5M
Population:
7.5M 2045
2016 Surface area:
1276 SQ KM
Current population density:
2171 CITIZENS/ SQ KM
Future population density:
5878 CITIZENS/ SQ KM
MEXICO CITY 2016 Population:
8.8M
Surface area:
Population density:
1485 SQ KM
5926 CITIZENS/ SQ KM
195
4.2.4 MEXICO CITY URBAN BUILDING DENSITY MEXICO CITY IS A HEAVILY BUILT UP CITY WITH 70% OF ITS SURFACE AREA CONSISTING OF BUILDINGS. THERE IS A SERIOUS LACK OF URBAN SPACE. The total surface area of Mexico City is 1485 square metres, 1058 square metres of which consists of buildings, meaning that 70% of its surface area is built up. The centre of the city itself, pictured in the aerial photograph here, consists of urban superblock and large but few public open spaces. This is a megacity that suffers from a lack of urban space which has resulted to extreme building solutions at times such as the conceptual idea of an “earthscraper” explored in the final section of this document. It begins to give us an indication as to the issues that may arise in the future high density scenario for the Manchester Corridor that has been put forward in this project.
196
SURFACE AREA 1485 SQ KM
BUILDING AREA 1058 SQ KM
197
70% BUILT AREA
DENSE & BUILT UP MEXICO CITY
198
199
200
4.3
Disruptor 3: Advanced Nanotechnolog
ced Nanotechnology
201
WHAT IS ADVANCED NANOTECHNOLOGY? Advanced nanotechnology is the theoretical ability to make computers that are under 100nm in size in the future. The idea seems quite simple but the effects it will have on citizens’ lives in the future are multiple and profound if achieved by 2045.
202
203
4.3.2 NANOTECHNOLOGY UBIQUITOUS COMPUTING COMPUTING AT NANOSCOPIC SCALE WILL UNLOCK EIGHT DIFFERENT AVENUES OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS. Nanomachines can be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. Brain nanobots enable citizens to interface directly with computers using their brain. This can be used to record and track citizens by a central authority but also allows beaming of recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person’s daily life known as “experience beamers.” Recreational uses aside, nanomachines will extend citizens’ life when used within the human body on a molecular level. Furthermore, it will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to “telepathically” communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks. The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person’s intelligence, memories and personality.
204
ENHANCED REALITY EXPERIENCE BEAMER
RECORDING & TRACKING
NANOTECH UBIQUITOUS COMPUTING INTERFACING
ENHANCED SENSES
TELEPATHY
+ LONG LIFE
205
SUPER INTELLIGENCE
4.3.3 NANOTECHNOLOGY VIRTUAL REALITY THE NANOTECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW FOR AUGMENTED REALITY BUT TRULY FULLY IMMERSIVE VIRTUAL REALITY. Nanomachines will be directly inserted into the brain and interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally cancelling out the “real” world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience. Fully immersive virtual reality or even augmented reality would lead citizens to depend less and less on real reality and lead internal lives. This is nothing new, smart technologies incorporated into mobile phones and tablets has invaded the citizen’s day-to-day life, experience and social contact. Virtual reality will only accentuate this trend further to the point where citizens become disconnected from the real world as it no longer has any relevance to their lives.
206
207
208
4.4 Disruptor 4: AI
209
4.4.1 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE OR ARTIFICIAL SMARTNESS CHEAP & POWERFUL AI MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE A MULTITUDE OF START UPS TAKING EVERYDAY PRODUCTS AND ADDING AI TO THEM. Kelly (2016) talks about cognifying as one of the 12 inevitable technological trends that will shape the next 30 years. He defines cognifying as making everything much smarter using cheap powerful AI that we get from the cloud. Indeed, super cheap computing will enable simple AI to be added to virtually any product that we use. In the next 30 years, we will see a multitude of start-ups that take an existing product and add AI to it. This trend has already begun, with Apple making the smart watch and more recently the Vinci smart headphones project being funded on Kickstarter (2016). Extrapolating this into the future, almost all of our products will be cognified and connected to the cloud, creating this Internet of Things 2.0 scenario described previously. This can also extend to building elements and even entire building systems, meaning the built environment will be able to interact with users and adapt to changing circumstances through machine learning.
210
+ AI = + AI = 211
WEARABLE TECHNOLOGY & UBIQUITOUS COMPUTING
212
213
4.4.2 PAVING THE WAY TO THE INTERNET OF THINGS 2.0 A DECENTRALISED AUTONOMOUS SYSTEM OF SMART THINGS AUGMENTED WITH SENSORS AND INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER AND THE WORLD VIA SET RULES. “The combination of the Internet and emerging technologies such as near-field communications, real-time localization, and embedded sensors lets us transform everyday objects into smart objects that can understand and react to their environment. Such objects are building blocks for the Internet of Things and enable novel computing applications.” (Fitton, Kortuem, Kawsar & Sundramoorthy, 2010)
214
smart things
REPRESENTATION
workflows
rules functions
ITY
TIV RAC
INTE AWA R
re
-awa
ty activi
ENE
SS
are y-aw are ss-aw proce
polic
rule based interactions of autonomus entities
B 1
B
A 2
C 4
215
C
B 3
4.4.3 SMART CITIES & BIG DATA THE DANGER OF SMART CITIES LIES WITHIN THE BIG DATA THAT LEADS THEM. THROUGH IT, THEY STRIVE FOR AN OPTIMISED EQUILIBRIUM. Big data is any dataset that does not fit into a single excel spreadsheet. This project investigates the way we might use such data for a better understanding of the world around us. Big data is a big part of how a smart city can function, collecting large quantities of data in an attempt to evolve in continuing cycle of selfimprovement and optimisation. In a sense, this is a dangerous idea is it essentially seeks to reach an equilibrium where all the inner-city systems have been optimised like a well oiled machine. As big datasets increase, the number of spurious correlations also increases.
In terms of cities and their functioning, the search for such correlations would be something of a diversion, for what we need to look for in big data can only ever be discovered through the lens of theory.
“My interest in them is primarily for developing a new undertanding of how cities function, albeit on much shorter time horizons than has traditionally been the focus on urban geography. This however, immediately
216
generates concern for how these data can be used to derive rather new theories of how cities function in that the focus is on much shorter term issues and much more on movement and mobility than on the location of land use and the long term functioning of the city system.” (Batty, 2013) Michael Batty in ‘Big Data, Smart Cities and City Planning.’
Big Data Social Media
Billion
6.7
2
2 Billion
We hope to gather
Big Data
from twittter for our project
7.4 Billion
217
Sensors
2020
2016
2 Billion
Year
218
4.5 Disruptor 5: 3D Printed Graphene
219
4.5.1 GRAPHENE MEETS CONSTRUCTION 3D PRINTED GRAPHENE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REVOLUTIONISE THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT, MUCH LIKE CONCRETE DID IN THE LAST CENTURY. Buildings that are measured in kilometres will be able to solve issues of lack of urban space within megacities. The strength of a graphene-oxyde composite building material combined with the efficiency and automation of the 3D printing build process will mean rapidly deployable megastructures. Not only will buildings above ground be super tall, the walls carrying their load can be a minimal width, maximising the internal space within them. Earthscrapers are within our reach using a graphene-oxyde composite because it significantly increases flexural strength but also compressive strength.
220
Steel Concrete Graphene
221
4.5.2 IMPROVED PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS GRAPHENE-OXYDE COMPOSITE HAS ALREADY BEEN TESTED MIXED WITH CONCRETE TO TEST ITS STRENGTH IN CONSTRUCTION. The results of these tests, show that even today, grapheneoxyde demonstrates a remarkable increase in building strength used with concrete. In the future, this building material has the potential to revolutionise the construction industry. The reason it is not being used in construction today is that it has to be mixed in a laboratory rather than on a construction site. Pan, A. Z., Li, B. H., Ling, C. Q., Korayem, A. H., Li, G., Zhu, J. W., Collins, F., Li, D., Duan, W. H. and Wang, M. C. (2015) ‘Mechanical properties and microstructure of a graphene-oxide–cement composite’, pp. 140-147.
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Flexural and Compressive Strength of Concrete with Different Dosages of Graphene Oxide after 28 days
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5.1 Experiments
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5.1.1 THE NEED FOR A NEW POWER GRID ENERGY IS ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT UTILITIES TO STORE AND SO AN EFFICIENT POWER GRID IS NEEDED.
Power surges occur when there is a peak in energy use and usually correlated with temperature and seasonal changes. One solution to the problem is load shedding, where energy suppliers offer discount prices to large institutions in return for shutting off some of their less used buildings temporarily during a power surge. “The first task in this century is to rebuild the electric power grid they built in the last one.” (Townsend, 2013).
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2008 19 Trillion kWh
2035 37 Trillion kWh
£
Universities and factories shut off unused buildings in exchange for discount
Audit and advise for share of discount
£
Innovation
Live feed of discounts to get neighbours competing
Load Shedding
9%
Innovation 14% Infrastructure traditionally powered by fossil fuels will change to electricity
High demand for electricity New Smart Grids
Solution
Load Shifting
Smarter cites means more reliance on electricity
Base load plants: - More efficient - Run at full capacity - Can’t deal with energy serges
Peak load plants: - Higher cost/ unit - Unsustainable
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£ Surge charges
2%
5.1.2 “PREDICTING THE FUTURE WITH SOCIAL MEDIA” SOCIAL MEDIA PREDICTED THE BOX OFFICE REVENUE ON MOVIES WITH MORE ACCURACY THAN OTHER REPUTABLE MODELS. Although an incomplete dataset, Twitter data can be used to project trends and behaviours because it is live and always changing, representing the world in the present day.
“We show that a simple model built from the rate at which tweets are created about particular topics can outperform market-based predictors.” (Asur and Huberman, 2014)
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Model to predict box-office revenue
+
Popularity
Usefulness
#Deadpool
+ Network Effect
Trending
IMDb Ease of use
Ease of use
Speed
Speed
Reach
Reach
Negative
Positive
Rate of Tweets
Rate of Tweets
Compare
Hollywood Stock Exchange
Model to predict box-office revenue More accurate More reliable
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5.1.3 PREDICTING POWER SURGES USING TWITTER USING SOCIAL MEDIA TO ANTICIPATE ENERGY SURGES AND RESPOND TO THEM IN ORDER TO OPTIMISE ENERGY PRODUCTION. The idea is to build a system that can anticipate energy surges based on live social media data. Specifically, using twitter feeds identifying words related to heating and cold weather and counting them, when the count becomes high, an energy surge could be anticipated.
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#Heating, #Cold
Rate of Tweets
More sustainable
Rate of Tweets
Peak load plants:
No need for peak plants
Twitter Analysis
Model to predict energy surges
£ Reduce University’s energy consumption for discount
Weather Analysis
Au gu st
6
20 Energy 1 Consumption 5 Temperature Precipitation Daylight Twitter
Data
£ September 2015
December 2015
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5.1.4 COLLECTING DATA TO USE IN OUR MODEL COMPARISON WITH TEMPERATURE, DAYLIGHT, ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND PRECIPITATION FOR MANCHESTER (AUGUST 2015-JANUARY 2016). This diagram demonstrates the general assumption that climate and energy use have a causal relationship. Meaning that, in the cold UK climate, low temperatures and short days are associated with high energy use. The idea is to correlate this climate data with twitter activity somehow. Having collected tweets over a six month period to compare with the energy use and climate data previously illustrated, some areas of correlation emerged. The twitter data consists the number of tweets including the keywords below on a daily basis over a period of six months between beginning of August 2015 to end of January 2016. Keywords used for twitter count in Manchester over period: #cold #freezing #icy #heating #arctic #chilly #nippy #frosty #frozen #snowy
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Twitter & Temperature
Twitter & Daylight
Twitter & Energy Consumption
Twitter & Precipitation
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ANALYSING DATA TO IDENTIFY CORRELATIONS 30 th 23rd
Christmas period sees a massive decrease in energy consumption due to companies being closed.
Dec
Dec
Correlation between prolonged high precipitation and level of energy consumption. This could be due to citizens feeling the need to increase the use of heating.
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la De
y
De
lay
As the temperature drops the Tweet rate increases. If the temperature is prolonged for 3 days you see an increase in energy consumption. This delay could be due to people waiting to see if the cold weather lasts.
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5.1.6 MAPPING MOVEMENT USING TWITTER EXPERIMENT INVOLVING A COMPETITION IN ORDER TO INCENTIVISE STUDENTS TO TWEET THEIR MOVEMENTS BETWEEN BUILDINGS. Placing posters around the UoM and MMU campus buildings and advertising on social media, advertising a competition for a cash prize simply asking for people to tweet their current building location and the building where they are heading, we received 86 entries over ten days. This gives an insight into what buildings have the most social media presence but also identify patterns of use in space, with student trajectories that can be mapped as a network diagram.
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WHERE ARE YOU GOING?
TELL US WHERE YOU ARE GOING AND
WIN £30. It’s simple: Tweet @MCRcor30 #(building you are in) #(building you are going to next) #corridor30
eg. @MCRcor30 #stopfordbuilding #universityplace #corridor30 or @MCRcor30 #MMUlibrary #home #corridor30 To find out if you have won check out @MCRcor30 on 2nd December 2016 where the winner will be announced.
One tweet per building you’re in, any multiple tweets will be void! To enter the competition for the chance of winning £30 your tweet must include “@MComp30, #(the building you’re at the time of the entry tweet), #(the building you’re going to next), #corridorcompetition”. Any tweets that don’t include one or multiple parts of the tweet example will not be entered into the prize draw. The competition is part of a research project carried out by students at the Manchester School of Architecture. By entering the competition you agree to your competition entry tweet being used as part of a research paper which may be published and or shown to the public at large. For more information about the competition please contact Ross Kilshaw, Maxime Downe or Kleanthis Rousos at ross.kilshaw@stu.mmu.ac.uk, maxime.l.downe@stu.mmu.ac.uk or kleanthis.rousos@stu.mmu.ac.uk. or simply DM our twitter account
A
Analyse
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B
WHERE ARE YOU GOING?
WHERE ARE GOING?
TELL US WHERE YOU ARE GOING TELL US WHERE AND
WIN £30. It’s simple: Tweet @MCRcor30 #(building you are in) #(building you are going to next) #corridor30
AND
WI
It’s simple Tweet @M #(b #(b #co
eg. @MCRcor30 #stopfordbuilding #universityplace #corridor30 or @MCRcor30 #MMUlibrary #home #corridor30
eg. @MCRcor30 #stopf or @MCRcor30 #MMU
To find out if you have won check out @MCRcor30 on 2nd December 2016 where the winner will be announced.
To find out if you have w 2nd December 2016 wh
One tweet per building you’re in, any multiple tweets will be void!
One tweet per building you’re in, an
To enter the competition for the chance of winning £30 your tweet must include “@MComp30, #(the building you’re at the time of the entry tweet), #(the building you’re going to next), #corridorcompetition”. Any tweets that don’t include one or multiple parts of the tweet example will not be entered into the prize draw. The competition is part of a research project carried out by students at the Manchester School of Architecture. By entering the competition you agree to your competition entry tweet being used as part of a research paper which may be published and or shown to the public at large. For more information about the competition please contact Ross Kilshaw, Maxime Downe or Kleanthis Rousos at ross.kilshaw@stu.mmu.ac.uk, maxime.l.downe@stu.mmu.ac.uk or kleanthis.rousos@stu.mmu.ac.uk. or simply DM our twitter account
To enter the competition for the chance of winning £30 your tweet must inclu building you’re going to next), #corridorcompetition”. Any tweets that don’t the prize draw. The competition is part of a research project carried out competition you agree to your competition entry tweet being used as part o large. For more information about the competition please contact Ross Kils maxime.l.downe@stu.mmu.ac.uk or kleanthis.rousos
242
E YOU
WHERE ARE YOU GOING?
E YOU ARE GOING TELL US WHERE YOU ARE GOING
IN £30.
AND
e: MCRcor30 building you are in) building you are going to next) orridor30
WIN £30. It’s simple: Tweet @MCRcor30 #(building you are in) #(building you are going to next) #corridor30
fordbuilding #universityplace #corridor30 Ulibrary #home #corridor30
eg. @MCRcor30 #stopfordbuilding #universityplace #corridor30 or @MCRcor30 #MMUlibrary #home #corridor30
won check out @MCRcor30 on here the winner will be announced.
To find out if you have won check out @MCRcor30 on 2nd December 2016 where the winner will be announced.
ny multiple tweets will be void!
One tweet per building you’re in, any multiple tweets will be void!
ude “@MComp30, #(the building you’re at the time of the entry tweet), #(the t include one or multiple parts of the tweet example will not be entered into t by students at the Manchester School of Architecture. By entering the of a research paper which may be published and or shown to the public at shaw, Maxime Downe or Kleanthis Rousos at ross.kilshaw@stu.mmu.ac.uk, s@stu.mmu.ac.uk. or simply DM our twitter account
To enter the competition for the chance of winning £30 your tweet must include “@MComp30, #(the building you’re at the time of the entry tweet), #(the building you’re going to next), #corridorcompetition”. Any tweets that don’t include one or multiple parts of the tweet example will not be entered into the prize draw. The competition is part of a research project carried out by students at the Manchester School of Architecture. By entering the competition you agree to your competition entry tweet being used as part of a research paper which may be published and or shown to the public at large. For more information about the competition please contact Ross Kilshaw, Maxime Downe or Kleanthis Rousos at ross.kilshaw@stu.mmu.ac.uk, maxime.l.downe@stu.mmu.ac.uk or kleanthis.rousos@stu.mmu.ac.uk. or simply DM our twitter account
243
Barnes Wallis
TWEET COUNT FOR EACH BUILDING
Sackville
Parisier
Renold
George Begg
Sugden
Sandbar
Chatham
Geoffrey M
MMU Business School Low
MMU Student Union MMU Library
Tweet count
High
244
Benzie
Schuster
Roscoe
Simon
UOM Student Union
Manton
Stopford
UOM Library
Bridgeford St
Home
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TRAJECTORIES STUDENTS TOOK BETWEEN BUILDINGS
1
Connection
2
Connections
3
Connections
4
Connections
5
Connections
6
Connections
8
Connections
14
Connections
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5.1.9 UNITY DATA MODEL PLACING SOCIAL MEDIA DATA INTO A UNITY MODEL WITH MULTIPLE DATASETS FROM THE CPU DATA HUB.
Connecting the spreadsheet containing the social media dataset gathered from the competition experiment into a Unity model which contains several datasets from the CPU data hub in order to do comparative analysis.
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USING THE UNITY MODEL
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5.2 Case Studies
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5.2.1 CASE STUDY 02: TATE MODERN EXTENSION USING A GROUNDWATER DEEP BENEATH THE EARTH TO REGULATE INDOOR AIR QUALITY AND TEMPERATURE. London’s new Tate Modern extension, designed by Herzog & De Meuron and completed this year (2016) uses an innovative groundwater system in order to heat and cool the building. It does so through the use of boreholes which dig deep underground through the river gravels from the adjacent Thames, through which a pump collects water that is at a mild 15°C all year round. This project harnesses the geothermal properties within the Earth in order to provide a sustainable solution to climate control within a sealed environment. Such systems would be important in the future scenario projected by 2045, where the climate exhibits extreme seasonal fluctuations. Indeed, at that depth underground, the climate is constant all year round and so can be exploited to solve the issue of an extreme climate above ground.
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Topsoil Towards building Granular Made Ground Aluvium
Well Casing
River Terrace Gravels
Well Screen
Pump
London Clay
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SWITCH HOUSE TATE MODERN EXTENSION
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5.2.2 CASE STUDY 03: MEXICO CITY EARTHSCRAPER THE EARTHSCRAPER ATTEMPTS TO SOLVE THE ISSUE OF THE CITY’S LACK OF URBAN SPACE, OCCUPYING THE CITY SQUARE KNOWN AS “ZOCALO.” Mexico City’s Earthscraper was a speculative project designed by BNKR Arquitectura (2011). It is the Skyscraper’s antagonist in the historic urban landscape of Mexico City where the latter is condemned and the preservation of the built environment is the paramount ambition. It preserves the iconic presence of the city square and the existing hierarchy of the buildings that surround it. The main square of Mexico City, known as the “Zocalo”, is 57,600 m2 (240m x 240m), making it one of the largest in the world. The design is an inverted pyramid with a central void to allow all habitable spaces to enjoy natural lighting and ventilation. To conserve the numerous activities that take place on the city square year round, the hole is covered with a glass floor. This sort of design approach can be applied to the Manchester Corridor future conditions, with a rich historic fabric, extreme climate calling for a sealed environment and overpopulation.
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Future Building Solution and a Dense Man
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6.1 BUILDING A SUBTERRANEAN CITY BY GOING UNDERGROUND, THE EARTH ABOVE GROUND IS ALLOWED TO HEAL FROM GENERATIONS OF CARBON EMISSIONS. This is an extreme climate change scenario, where people have been forced to move below ground in order to survive. By developing this scenario, we are able to explore future design aiming at the adaptations needed for survival in case the situation comes to pass and the possibility of technological solutions in this condition which are nanotechnology, AI and 3D printed graphene. Fully immersive virtual reality and augmented reality achieved through nanotechnology can make the subterranean condition liveable for citizens as they can enhance their reality through it. 3D printed graphene makes it possible to build deep underground where the geothermal properties of the Earth can be harnessed for energy and regulating climate.
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Technological means Benefits Design challenges
More space for regeneration above ground.
Protection from the extreme external climate conditions.
Underground becomes more liveable through ougmented and virtual reality.
Less liveable without the ougmented and virtual reality.
Made possible through the advancements of Graphene.
A disaster could mean massive loss of lives and commodities.
Increase in urban development space.
Geothermal energy & heat can be harnessed.
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6.2 SEALED ENVIRONMENT ABOVE GROUND REVISITING BUCKMINSTER FULLER’S DOME OVER MANHATTAN AND FREI OTTO’S ARCTIC CITY.
Revisiting Frei Otto and Buckminster Fuller’s domed cities. With the motto ‘extreme situations require extreme measures’ the inhabitants of Manchester survive extreme weather conditons by sealing themselves off from the environment and also in anticipation of the coming ice age. They enclose themselves into a large dome within which Manchester begins to enjoy a mild climate contra to the harsh conditions on the ‘outside’.
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Dome over the Manchester Corridor
Dome over Manhattan
Arctic City
Arctic City
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LIFE WITHIN THE DOME
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6.3 FUTURE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR MEME SLEEPING IN THE GROUND, LIVING ON THE CLOUD.
This explores the idea of a future scenario set in the year 2045. The scenario has been extrapolated from the preceding data studies and timelines. The scenario has been developed as a Meme with an associated article that will be submitted for publication in a scientific popular media newspaper. Our meme demonstrates an extreme climate change scenario, where people have been forced to live in subterranean conditions in order to survive. This is a scenario where citizens experience fully immersive virtual reality and spend most of the time in the cloud, rendering real reality irrelevant and making the transition liveable. By developing this scenario, we are able to explore future design aiming to mitigate the adaptation needed for survival in case the situation comes to pass and the possibility of nanotechnology, virtual reality and 3D printed graphene.
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SLEEPING IN THE GROUND
LIVING ON THE CLOUD 273
7 CONCLUSION FROM THE DATA STUDIED, WE HAVE CONCLUDED THAT A MASSIVE CHANGE IS COMING AND THE MANCHESTER CORRIDOR WILL HAVE TO ADAPT. In 2045, the Manchester Corridor will be subject to an extreme climate, characterised by tropical summers and arctic winters but also heavy precipitation. These conditions will make the livability in the outside world difficult and will require innovative design solutions in order to create environments where climate can be regulated. In the Hollings panarchy diagram, climate change and the beginning of a new ice age will bring about a collapse in the system which will force citizens to adapt to their new emerging environment. Two possible solutions have been explored in order to adapt to this new condition which are underground solutions and overground. Both solutions require a sealed environment to create regulated thermal conditions in order to make the Manchester Corridor more resilient to such extreme potential scenarios. In the next semester, we will be exploring one of these two building solutions where we will apply them to a specific site on the Manchester Corridor.
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OUR SURVIVAL RESTS...
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9.1 Alter, L. (2011) Earthscrapers: Is Going Down Instead Of Up A Greener Way To Build? 29th November. Treehugger. [Online] [Accessed on 10th November 2016] http://www.treehugger.com/ greenarchitecture/ earthscrapers-going-down-insteadgreener-way-build.html Anissimov, M. (no date) Top Ten Transhumanist Technologies. Lifeboat Foundation. [Online] [Accessed on 28th December 2015] http:// lifeboat.com/ex/transhumanist. technologies Araújo, A.L. and Rozegar, A. (2015) Man Plus. 21st July. Man Plus Comic. [Online] [Accessed on 28th March 2016] http://manpluscomic.com/ post/124666693227 Asur, S. and Huberman, A. B. (2014). Predicting the Future with Social Media. Batty, M. (2013) ‘Big Data, Smart Cities and City Planning.’ BBC (n. d.) The Gulf Stream. BBC. [Online] [Accessed on 15th November 2016] http://www.bbc. co.uk/ climate/impact/gulf_stream. shtml BBC. (2010) Wild Weather: ‘Manchester’s rainy days getting wetter’. [Online] [Accessed 8th December 2016] http://news.
TEXT REFERENCES bbc.co.uk/local/manchester/ hi/people_and_places/nature/ newsid_8997000/8997816.stm Bostrom, N. (2006). ‘How long before superintelligence?’ Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, 5, January, pp. 11–30. Bostrom, N. (2003) ‘Human Genetic Enhancements: A Transhumanist Perspective.’ Journal of Value Inquiry, 37, April, pp. 493-506. Bostrom, N. (2014) Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chestertons (2016) Manchester Residential Research Report 2016, chestertons, [Online] [Accessed on 11th December 2016] www. chestertons.com/~/media/c1771_ manchester%20report_web.pdf Clark, D. (2013) What are the potential impacts of climate change for the UK? [Online] [Accessed on 12th November 2016] http://www.theguardian.com/ environment/2013/oct/08/ potential-impacts-climate-change-uk Cook, J. (2010) Are we heading into a new ice age. [Online] [Accessed on 25th November 2016] https:// www.skepticalscience.com/headinginto-new-little-ice-age-intermediate.htm Wolf, T. D., & Holvoet, T.
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(2004). Emergence and SelfOrganisation: a statement of similarities and differences. Proceedings of the International Workshop on Engineering Self- Organising Applications (pp. 96-110). New York: KULeuven. Retrieved from http:// atransdisciplinaryapproach.com/ wp-content/ uploads/2014/02/dewolf-emergence.pdf Drexler, K.E. (1986) Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology, New York: Anchor Books. Dunne, A. and Raby, F. (2009) A/B, A Manifesto. Dunne & Raby. [Online] [Accessed on 28th March 2016] http://www.dunneandraby. co.uk/content/projects/476/0 Dunne, A. and Raby, F. (2013) Speculative Everything: Design, Fiction and Social Dreaming, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press. Ellis, W. (2012) How To See The Future. 7th September. Warren Ellis. [Online] [Accessed on 30th March 2016] http://www. warrenellis.com/?p=14314 Fitton, D. Kortuem, G. Kawsar, F. & Sundramoorthy, V. (2010) Smart Objects as Building Blocks for the Internet of Things. Internet of things track (pp 44 - 51). IEEE Computer
Society. Furuto, A. (2011) The Earthscraper/ BNKR Arcquitectura. 4th August. Archdaily. [Accessed on 10th December] http://www.archdaily. com/156357/the-earthscraper-bnkrarquitectura Geoscience News And Information (2016) Global Sea Level Rise Map. [Online] [Accessed on 8th December] http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/ Hollings, C. S. (1996) Engineering Within Ecological Constraints. The National Academy of Sciences. Hollings, C. S. (1996) Engineering vs Ecological Resilience, Hollings, 1996. Jacobs, J. (1961). The Death and Life of Great American Cities. Katz, M. L. and Shapiro, C. (1994) Systems Competition and Network Effects. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(2), 93- 115. Kelly, K. (2016) The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future, Viking, New York. Lane, D. M. (2010) Introduction to Linear Regression. [Online] [Accessed 8th December 2016] http:// onlinestatbook.com/2/regression/ intro.html
Le Guin, U.K. (1969, reprinted 1999) ‘Introduction’, in Le Guin, U.K. The Left Hand of Darkness, New York: Ace Books, pp. xi-xvi. McLuhan, M. and Fiore, Q. (1967) The Medium is the Massage: An Inventory of Effects, New York: Bantam Books. Met Office (2016) Climate: observations, projections and impacts [Online] [Accessed on 15th October 2016] http://www.metof ce.gov. uk/climate-guide/science/uk/obsprojections-impacts Met Office (2016) Climate: observations, projections and impacts. Met Office. [Online] [Accessed on 15th October 2016] http://www.metof ce.gov.uk/climateguide/science/uk/obs- projectionsimpacts Met Office (2016) Manchester. Met Office. [Online] [Accessed on 15th October 2016] http://www.metof ce.gov. uk/public/weather/forecast/ gcw2hzs1u Moore, G.E. (1965) ‘Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits.’ Electronics, 38, April, pp. 114-117. O’Bannon, D. and Moebius (1975) The Long Tomorrow, Los Angeles: Humanoids, Inc.
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Office for National Statistics (2014) Birth Summary Tables, England and Wales: 2014 Live births, stillbirths, and the intensity of childbearing measured by the total fertility rate. [Online] [Accessed on 11th December 2016] https://www.ons. gov.uk/ Otto, F. (1971) ‘Arctic Cities.’ Architectural Design, 41, May, p. 329. Pan, A. Z., Li, B. H., Ling, C. Q., Korayem, A. H., Li, G., Zhu, J. W., Collins, F., Li, D., Duan, W. H. and Wang, M. C. (2015) ‘Mechanical properties and microstructure of a graphene-oxide–cement composite’, pp. 140-147. Paxton, F (2016) “The Manchester miracle”: how did a city in decline become the poster child for urban regeneration?, City Metric [Online] [Accessed on 11th December 2016] http://www.citymetric.com/ business/manchester-miracle-how-didcity-decline-become-poster-child-urbanregeneration-2402 Population and Migration (n. d.) How densely populated is your area? Neighbourhoods. [Online] [Accessed on 11th November 2016] http:// www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov. uk/HTMLDocs/dvc134_c/ index. html
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StatsDirect (2010) Regression. [Online] [Accessed 8th December 2016] https://www.statsdirect.com/ help/regression_and_correlation/ polynomial.htm Townsend, A. (2013) ‘Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia’ New York: W.W. Norton & Company Ltd. Walker, B. et al. (2004) Resilience, Adaptability and Transfromability in Social Ecological Systems. Ecology and Society 9(2):5. Waters, L. (2016) Energy Consumption in the UK 2016. [Online] [Accessed 8th December 2016] https://www.gov.uk/ government/statistics/energyconsumption-in-the-uk Williams, J. (2015) Manchester heading for population boom over next decade, Manchester Evening News [online] [accessed on 11th December 2016] http://www. manchestereveningnews.co.uk/ news/greater-manchester-news/ manchester-heading-population-boomover-9528861
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9.2 1.1.1 Araújo, A.L. and Rozegar, A. (2015) Man Plus. 21st July. Man Plus Comic. [Online] [Accessed on 28th March 2016] http://manpluscomic.com/ post/124666693227 1.1.3 O’Bannon, D. and Moebius (1975) The Long Tomorrow, Los Angeles: Humanoids, Inc. 2 AERIAL PHOTO OF UoM http://www.manchester.ac.uk/ study/undergraduate/parentssupporters/visits/ 2.1.1 ICE AGE NEW YORK Presto. (2010) The Day After Tomorrow. [ONLINE] Available at: https://www.presto.com.au/ movies/the-day-after-tomorrow. [Accessed 11 December 2016] 2.1.2 AERIAL VIEW MANCHESTER Viva manchester. (2015) Summer Culture. [ONLINE] Available at: http://vivamanchester.co.uk/ manchesters-summer-culturecalendar-2015/. [Accessed 11 December 2016] 2.1.3 MANCHESTER FLOODING Youtube. (2015) Salford Manchester Flooding Boxing Day 2015 Lowry Hotel. [ONLINE] Available at: https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=6_yrDNWTVJU. [Accessed 11 December 2016]
VISUAL REFERENCES 2.2.2 OVERCROWDING Dailymail. (2015) Boxing day sales. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/ news/article-2529381/BoxingDay-sales-begin-Thousands-queuegrab-post-Christmas-bargains-storesslash-prices-50.html. [Accessed 11 December 2016] 2.3.3 UNIVAC 1 Media C . (2000) Computer. [ONLINE] Available at: https://smedia-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/ originals/d3/e8/c3/ 2.3.6 FACEBOOK VR Tube Filter. (2016) Facebook and VR. [ONLINE] Available at: http:// www.tubefilter.com/2016/02/22/ facebook-says-users-have-watched-1million-hours-of-virtual-reality-videosforms-social-vr-team/ [Accessed 11 December 2016] 2.4.4 UoM PUBLIC SPACE http://www.manchester.ac.uk/ discover/news/highest-ever-placefor-manchester-in-world-survey-ofuniversities 2.4.6 UBIQUITOUS COMPUTING The Odyssey Online. (2015) Why Technology is bad for us. [ONLINE] Available at: https:// www.theodysseyonline.com/whytechnology-isnt-bad. [Accessed 11 December 2016] 3.3.4 INTERNET OF THINGS
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Ink Agency. (2016) Technology Intelligence. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.lnkagency.com/ technology-intelligence. [Accessed 11 December 2016] 3.4.1 CIRCLE SQUARE Bruntwood. (2016) Circle-Square. [ONLINE] Available at: http:// bruntwood.co.uk/our-locations/ manchester/circle-square/. [Accessed 11 December 2016] 3.4.2 UNDERGROUND Framashere. 2016. The Future. [ONLINE] Available at: https:// framasphere.org/posts/2124032. [Accessed 11 December 2016] 4.1.2 NEW YORK Angieaway. (2015) Central Park. [ONLINE] Available at: http:// angieaway.com/2011/07/05/ travel-tuesday-central-park-new-yorkny/. [Accessed 11 December 2016] 4.2.2 DISPLACEMENT Evaq8. (2015) UK Flooding. [ONLINE] Available at: http:// evaq8.co.uk/Flooding-Preparedness. html. [Accessed 11 December 2016] 4.2.4 MEXICO CITY Vanilla Magazine. (2013) Mexico City. [ONLINE] Available at: http:// www.vanillamagazine.it/le-fotografieaeree-delle-piu-belle-citta-del-mondo/. [Accessed 11 December 2016] 4.4.1 WEARABLES
Youtube. (2015) Next Future Wearable Technology Will Blow Your Mind. [ONLINE] Available at: https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=UipJ5CbFFf0. [Accessed 11 December 2016] 4.2.2 MEXICO CITY EARTHSCRAPER http://www.archdaily. com/156357/the-earthscraper-bnkrarquitectura 6.2 Otto, F. (1971) ‘Arctic Cities.’ Architectural Design, 41, May, p. 329.
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DESIRE PATH NETWORKS
UoM NHS MSP MMU RNCM
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RIGHT TO LIGHT INVESTIGATION
dome of light 27o
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Sun-angle
o
Dome of light:
27
The visibility of a patch of light from the window, must not be less than 27 de grees.
45 degree rule
45o
Used to test extensions that are perpendicular to a window. If either of the lines cross the middle of the window then a more detailed check has to be carried out
45o
25 degree rule Used to test new developments. If the proposed development falls above the line drawn 25 degrees from the hori zontal on the centre of the window then more detailed checks have to made
25 o
ROL depends on two variables : (d) Room depth and
h
(h) Window height
d
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A DARK SUBTERRANEAN FUTURE
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OUR SURVIVAL RESTS...
...BENEATH OUR FEET
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