September Quarter 2015 Market Report Artarmon I 2064
I M P O R TA N T I N F O R M AT I O N UPDATED INFORMATION
CONTENT INTEGRITY
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THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. YOU SHOULD SEEK YOUR OWN FINANCIAL ADVICE. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of individuals. It is important that you read the entire document and any supplementary amendments in full before making any decisions. The product and pricing information contained within this document is based on price lists and third party information obtained throughout the course of our Investments. This information has been verified to the best of our ability, but Ashton Rowe accepts no responsibility for reliance on this information. This information has been prepared independently and at our own discretion. It is particularly important that you consider the risk factors that could affect the financial performance of the property. You should carefully consider these factors in light of your particular needs, objectives and financial circumstances (including financial and taxation issues) and seek professional advice from your own professional advisors.
Date compiled 16 October 2015.
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
A r tarmo n
MARKET OVERVIEW ASHTON ROWE IS ONE OF AUSTR ALIA’S LE ADING PROPERT Y RESE ARCH AND INVESTMENT FIRMS, SPECIALISING IN RESIDENTIAL PROPERT Y.
GUIDE: Read these snippets to interpret the report. STEP 1: Choose your property market (houses or
TOTAL MARK ET
HO USE S
UNITS
1,094
2,418
11
30
1.01%
1.24%
PROPERTIES IN SU BUR B SEPTEMBE R Q UART ER SALES* TURNOVER
Source:: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census 2011 and local council dwelling approvals * 5% margin for error in this figure due to market information being with held.
4.0
listing price trends
3.0
60
2.0
40
1.0
20
0
0
Supply to Market
shows the median
SOLD PRICE S
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
(supply).
Q3 2009
historically
Q4 2008
the market
ME DIAN
$2,555,000
and buying
LO WER
$2,190,000
Supply to market increased 12% taking it 70% below the 7 year average.
100
1.6
80
1.2
60
0.8
40
0.4
20
0
0
typically places
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
demand is good
four equal groups. 25% of sales are more than the
median and 75%
QUARTILE
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$925,256
ME DIAN
$847,500
LO WER
$808,750
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
are more than the lower quartile. Finally, 50% of sales are between the upper and lower quartiles. Properties that are priced above the upper quartile
Q3 2009
supply when
recent sales into
more than the
2.0
Q4 2008
market. Less
capital growth.
upper quartile.
current supply trend is for the
patterns NOT
Quartiles divide
Supply to Market
shows what the
Median Price ($m)
to the graph
represents trends
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Total Units
properties
bottom table next
from smallest to
50% of sales are
groups of
STEP 5: The
been arranged highest. It best
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
shows the price
last quarter.
market.
$2,820,000
next to the graph
actually sold in the
properties in that
UPPE R
and property on
STEP 4: The table
divided by total
after they have
80
QUARTILE
Median Price ($m)
STEP 3: The graph
quarterly sales
of all properties
Total Houses
table shows how
hands.
number of
the middle price
STEP 2: The top
are changing
Turnover is the
Median price is
units).
many properties
LEARNING:
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
Supply to market increased 18% taking it 7% below the 7 year average.
are typically more volatile than those priced close to the median.
upward pressure on prices.
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
A r tarmo n
M A R K E T H E A LT H
LEARNING:
HOUSES
UN ITS
SEPTE MB ER QUARTER
SEPTEM BE R Q UARTER
CLE A R ANC E R ATE
98%
88%
DAYS ON MAR KE T
21
28
64%
37%
AUC TIO NS
% O F SUPPLY
Auction Clearance Rate is the percentage of houses sold under the hammer or prior to auction. This figure excludes property
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide SNR - Statistically Not Reliable
passed in at auction. % of Supply is the
HOUSES: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER*
percentage of
ADDR ESS
property on the
B EDS
B ATH
PRICE
64 T INDALE RD, ARTARMON
5
3
$3,100,000
using the auction
66 T INDALE RD, ARTARMON
4
2
$2,880,000
you know the
11 PYRL RD, ARTARMON
4
2
$2,800,000
7 TINDALE RD, ARTARMO N
3
1
$2,610,000
11 STAFFO RD RD, ARTARMON
4
2
$2,500,000
market being sold method and lets relevance of the auction clearance rate. During a period of high demand the number of
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to September 2015
auctions typically increase.
UNITS: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER* ADDR ESS
B EDS
B ATH
PRICE
6/228 PACIFIC HW Y, ARTARMON
4
4
$1,250,000
4F/1 FR ANCIS RD, ARTARMON
3
2
$1,225,000
67/ 1 FR ANCIS RD, ARTARMON
3
2
$1,225,000
79/ 421 PACIFIC HW Y, ARTARMON
3
2
$1,030,000
4A /3 JE RSE Y RD, ARTARMON
2
2
$951,000
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to September 2015
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
A r ta rm on
MARKET COMPOSITION WHICH T YPE OF HOUSES ARE SELLING
Last Quarter
Entire Period
18%
20%
31%
45% 36% 49%
3 Beds
4 Beds
5+ Beds
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.
WHICH T YPE OF UNITS ARE SELLING
Last Quarter
Entire Period
12% 10%
15%
78%
1 Beds
14%
71%
2 Beds
3 Beds
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
3 Bedroom House Segment
NOTE:
4.0
0
0
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Statistically Not
UPPE R
$2,460,000
Reliable is usually
ME DIAN
$2,310,000
enough sales
LO WER
$2,160,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
a result of not occurring to produce meaningful
Supply to market increased 150% taking it 1% above the 7 year average.
3.0
60
2.0
40
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
0
Q1 2014
0
Q2 2013
20
Q3 2012
1.0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
80
Q4 2011
average.
4.0
Q4 2008
the long term
Median Price ($m)
purchase in the
market is above
LEARNING:
4 Bedroom House Segment
renovate, aim to
when supply to
SOLD PRICE S
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
When buying to
lowest quartile
Q1 2014
section.
Q2 2013
‘Market Overview’
TIP:
QUARTILE
analysis.
Q3 2012
instructions in the
20
Q4 2011
please view
1.0
Q1 2011
page correctly
40
Q1 2011
To interpret this
2.0
Q2 2010
bedrooms.
60
Q2 2010
on the number of
3.0
Q3 2009
segments based
80
Q4 2008
divided into
Median Price ($m)
house market are
Supply to Market
Properties in the
Q3 2009
A r tarmo n
B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$2,800,000
ME DIAN
$2,500,000
LO WER
$2,250,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market stayed the same taking it 46% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
A r tarmo n
B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S 1 Bedroom Unit Segment
NOTE: Properties in the
2.0
100
1.6
80
1.2
60
0.8
40
0.4
20
0
0
QUARTILE
Q3 2015
section.
Q4 2014
‘Market Overview’
Q1 2014
instructions in the
Q2 2013
please view
Q3 2012
Supply to Market
page correctly
Q4 2011
To interpret this
Q1 2011
bedrooms.
Q2 2010
on the number of
Q3 2009
segments based
Q4 2008
divided into
Median Price ($m)
house market are
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
SNR
ME DIAN
SNR
LO WER
SNR
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market stayed the same taking it 38% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder TIP:
2 Bedroom Unit Segment
When buying to renovate, aim to purchase in the
1.2
60
0.8
40
0.4
20
0
0
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
Q3 2009
Supply to Market
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$860,000
ME DIAN
$840,000
LO WER
$815,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 19% taking it 2% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
3 Bedroom Unit Segment 2.0
100
1.6
80
1.2
60
0.8
40
0.4
20
0
0
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
Supply to Market
QUARTILE
Q3 2009
average.
80
Q4 2008
the long term
1.6
Q4 2008
market is above
Median Price ($m)
when supply to
100
QUARTILE
Median Price ($m)
lowest quartile
2.0
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$1,225,000
ME DIAN
$1,127,500
LO WER
$885,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 50% taking it 25% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
A r ta rm on STEP 1: Choose your
C A P I TA L G R O W T H
SUBURB GROW TH
HOUSES
UNITS
6.8%
7.1%
property market.
10 YE AR AVER AGE*
STEP 2:
3 YE AR AVER AGE*
12.9%
12.3%
12 MONTHS**
22.5%
17.0%
View the top table to see the medium to long term capital
LEARNING: Previously, the only way to measure a suburb’s capital growth was to compare the median sale price
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex - Suburb Report September 2015 *Annualised capital growth **Capital growth over the last 12 months
growth of the
Houses - Capital Growth
suburb.
of properties sold in one period with the median sale
Units - Capital Growth
price of properties
35%
35%
sold in the next
30%
30%
period. This
25%
25%
suburb has
20%
20%
performed
15%
15%
explain, if in one
against the wider
10%
10%
quarter there were
5%
5%
-0%
-0%
STEP 3: View the graph to see how the
Sydney region.
-5%
Sep 2013 Sep 2014 Sep 2015
Artarmon Houses
Total
Sydney Houses
-5%
however is plagued with problems. To
many property sales at the lower end of the market Sep 2013 Sep 2014 Sep 2015
Artarmon Units
Total
Sydney Units
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex Suburb Report September 2015 *Rolling 12 month periods to quarter end
The Artarmon residential market has underperformed the Sydney metropolitan market by an average of 3.0% each year over the last three years for houses and by 2.0% per year for units.
and in the next quarter, there were more sales at the high end, this would show a large increase in median price, but would not reflect actual capital growth. Therefore, median price best
Capital Growth Calculation: In short, the calculation methodology takes “sale pairs” for every property that has at least two sales recorded. These individual property growth rates are then combined into a complete growth rate for the chosen suburb. The development of this methodology won an international actuarial award in 1992. More recently, a paper issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia (Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-sales Measures, James Hansen, 2006) confirmed this methodology to be superior to those based on simple movements in median price. For more visit www.ashtonrowe.com.au
represents buying patterns.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Our Chatswood team from top left hand corner: Nick Separovich, Adam Wong, Olivia Chung, Greta Simpson, Fiona Cutler and Nic Dunn.
www.mcgrath.com.au
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
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