September Quarter 2015 Market Report Mosman I 2088
I M P O R TA N T I N F O R M AT I O N UPDATED INFORMATION
CONTENT INTEGRITY
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THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. YOU SHOULD SEEK YOUR OWN FINANCIAL ADVICE. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of individuals. It is important that you read the entire document and any supplementary amendments in full before making any decisions. The product and pricing information contained within this document is based on price lists and third party information obtained throughout the course of our Investments. This information has been verified to the best of our ability, but Ashton Rowe accepts no responsibility for reliance on this information. This information has been prepared independently and at our own discretion. It is particularly important that you consider the risk factors that could affect the financial performance of the property. You should carefully consider these factors in light of your particular needs, objectives and financial circumstances (including financial and taxation issues) and seek professional advice from your own professional advisors.
Date compiled 16 October 2015.
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Mo sman
MARKET OVERVIEW ASHTON ROWE IS ONE OF AUSTR ALIA’S LE ADING PROPERT Y RESE ARCH AND INVESTMENT FIRMS, SPECIALISING IN RESIDENTIAL PROPERT Y.
GUIDE: Read these snippets to interpret the report. STEP 1: Choose your property market (houses or
TOTAL MARK ET
HO USE S
UNITS
5,524
5,160
74
109
1.34%
2.11%
PROPERTIES IN SU BUR B SEPTEMBE R Q UART ER SALES* TURNOVER
Source:: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census 2011 and local council dwelling approvals * 5% margin for error in this figure due to market information being with held.
5.0
250
4.0
200
3.0
150
2.0
100
STEP 4: The table
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
(supply).
Q1 2012
historically
Q2 2011
0
Q3 2010
0
Q4 2009
50 Q1 2009
the market
1.0 Q2 2008
and property on
Q3 2007
listing price trends
QUARTILE
SOLD PRICE S
ME DIAN
$2,710,000
and buying
LO WER
$2,375,000
typically places
capital growth.
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable Quartiles divide
Supply to market decreased 5% taking it 10% below the 7 year average.
recent sales into four equal groups. 25% of sales are more than the
1.5
120
1.0
80
Q3 2015
0
Q4 2014
0
Q1 2014
40 Q2 2013
0.5
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
median and 75%
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
160
Q3 2012
demand is good
2.0
Q4 2011
supply when
200
Q1 2011
market. Less
2.5
Q2 2010
trend is for the
patterns NOT
more than the
240
Q3 2009
current supply
represents trends
upper quartile.
3.0
Q4 2008
shows what the
Median Price ($m)
to the graph
from smallest to highest. It best
Total Units
properties
bottom table next
been arranged
50% of sales are
groups of
STEP 5: The
market.
$3,437,500
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
shows the price
last quarter.
properties in that
UPPE R
next to the graph
actually sold in the
divided by total
after they have
300
Supply to Market
many properties
Median Price ($m)
6.0
shows the median
quarterly sales
of all properties
Total Houses
table shows how
STEP 3: The graph
number of
the middle price
STEP 2: The top
hands.
Turnover is the
Median price is
units).
are changing
LEARNING:
UPPE R
SOLD PRICE S $1,212,500
ME DIAN
$827,500
LO WER
$661,250
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
are more than the lower quartile. Finally, 50% of sales are between the upper and lower quartiles. Properties that are priced above the upper quartile
Supply to market decreased 3% taking it 22% below the 7 year average.
are typically more volatile than those priced close to the median.
upward pressure on prices.
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Mo sman
M A R K E T H E A LT H
LEARNING:
HOUSES
UN ITS
SEPTE MB ER QUARTER
SEPTEM BE R Q UARTER
CLE A R ANC E R ATE
76%
82%
DAYS ON MAR KE T
70
28
46%
60%
AUC TIO NS
% O F SUPPLY
Auction Clearance Rate is the percentage of houses sold under the hammer or prior to auction. This figure excludes property
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide SNR - Statistically Not Reliable
passed in at auction. % of Supply is the
HOUSES: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER*
percentage of
ADDR ESS
property on the
B EDS
B ATH
PRICE
5 AV ENUE RD, MOSMAN
3
1
$7,100,000
using the auction
28 S HEL L BANK AV, MOSMAN
4
4
$6,600,000
you know the
42 EURYALUS ST, MO SMAN
4
3
$5,600,000
23 BU RR AN AV, MO SMAN
3
2
$4,390,000
21 NO BLE ST, MOSMAN
5
4
$4,305,000
market being sold method and lets relevance of the auction clearance rate. During a period of high demand the number of
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to September 2015
auctions typically increase.
UNITS: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER* ADDR ESS
B EDS
B ATH
PRICE
1/8 PARK AV, MOSMAN
4
4
$3,100,000
3/55 PRINCE AL BERT ST, MOSMAN
4
3
$2,725,000
8/8 E ARL ST, MOSMAN
3
2
$2,310,000
7/8 PU NCH ST, MO SMAN
3
2
$1,750,000
4/88A AWABA ST, MO SMAN
-
-
$1,750,000
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to September 2015
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Mosman
MARKET COMPOSITION WHICH T YPE OF HOUSES ARE SELLING
Last Quarter
Entire Period
20% 42%
38%
3 Beds
24%
32%
44%
4 Beds
5+ Beds
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.
WHICH T YPE OF UNITS ARE SELLING
Last Quarter
21%
Entire Period
27%
32%
47%
1 Beds
22%
51%
2 Beds
3 Beds
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Mosman
B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S 3 Bedroom House Segment
90
2.0
60 30
0
0
‘Market Overview’ section.
Q3 2015
1.0 Q4 2014
instructions in the
3.0
Q1 2014
please view
120
Q2 2013
page correctly
4.0
Q3 2012
To interpret this
150
Q4 2011
bedrooms.
5.0
Q1 2011
on the number of
180
Q2 2010
segments based
6.0
Q3 2009
divided into
Median Price ($m)
house market are
Q4 2008
Properties in the
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
NOTE:
SOLD PRICE S
LEARNING: Statistically Not
UPPE R
$2,975,000
Reliable is usually
ME DIAN
$2,700,000
enough sales
LO WER
$2,415,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
a result of not occurring to produce meaningful analysis.
Supply to market decreased 14% taking it 42% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder TIP: When buying to
4 Bedroom House Segment
0
0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
30 Q3 2015
1.0 Q4 2014
60
Q1 2014
2.0
Q2 2013
90
Q3 2012
3.0
Q4 2011
120
Q1 2011
4.0
Q2 2010
150
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$3,550,000
ME DIAN
$2,772,500
LO WER
$2,490,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 2% taking it 41% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
5 Bedroom House Segment
2.0
60
1.0
30
0
0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
90
Q3 2015
3.0
Q4 2014
120
Q1 2014
4.0
Q2 2013
150
Q3 2012
5.0
Q4 2011
180
Q1 2011
6.0
Q2 2010
average.
5.0
Q3 2009
the long term
180
Q3 2009
market is above
6.0
Q4 2008
when supply to
Median Price ($m)
lowest quartile
Median Price ($m)
purchase in the
Q4 2008
renovate, aim to
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$4,077,500
ME DIAN
$3,850,000
LO WER
$3,145,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market decreased 5% taking it 10% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Mosman
B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S 1 Bedroom Unit Segment
1.0
40
0.5
20
0
0
‘Market Overview’ section.
Q3 2015
60
Q4 2014
instructions in the
1.5
Q1 2014
please view
80
Q2 2013
page correctly
2.0
Q3 2012
To interpret this
100
Q4 2011
bedrooms.
2.5
Q1 2011
on the number of
120
Q2 2010
segments based
3.0
Q3 2009
divided into
Median Price ($m)
house market are
Q4 2008
Properties in the
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
NOTE:
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$669,000
ME DIAN
$616,000
LO WER
$550,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 5% taking it 16% above the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder TIP:
2 Bedroom Unit Segment
20
0
0
Q3 2015
0.5 Q4 2014
40
Q1 2014
1.0
Q2 2013
60
Q3 2012
1.5
Q4 2011
80
Q1 2011
2.0
Q2 2010
100
QUARTILE UPPE R
SOLD PRICE S $1,040,000
ME DIAN
$865,000
LO WER
$775,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 7% taking it 28% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
3 Bedroom Unit Segment
1.0
40
0.5
20
0
0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
60
Q3 2015
1.5
Q4 2014
80
Q1 2014
2.0
Q2 2013
100
Q3 2012
2.5
Q4 2011
120
Q1 2011
3.0
Q2 2010
average.
2.5
Q3 2009
the long term
120
Q3 2009
market is above
3.0
Q4 2008
when supply to
Median Price ($m)
lowest quartile
Median Price ($m)
purchase in the
Q4 2008
renovate, aim to
Supply to Market
When buying to
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$1,672,500
ME DIAN
$1,540,000
LO WER
$1,220,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 21% taking it 38% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Mosman
C A P I TA L G R O W T H
STEP 1: Choose your
SUBURB GRO W TH
UNITS
4.8%
5.5%
only way to capital growth was
property market.
10 Y E A R AVE R AGE*
STEP 2:
3 YE AR AVER AGE*
10.1%
9.3%
12 MONTHS**
14.3%
12.8%
View the top table to see the medium to long term capital
LEARNING:
HO USE S
Previously, the measure a suburb’s to compare the median sale price
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex - Suburb Report September 2015 *Annualised capital growth **Capital growth over the last 12 months
growth of the
Houses - Capital Growth
suburb.
of properties sold in one period with the median sale
Units - Capital Growth
price of properties
35%
35%
sold in the next
30%
30%
period. This
25%
25%
suburb has
20%
20%
performed
15%
15%
explain, if in one
against the wider
10%
10%
quarter there were
5%
5%
-0%
-0%
STEP 3: View the graph to see how the
Sydney region.
-5%
Sep 2013 Sep 2014 Sep 2015
Mosman Houses
Total
Sydney Houses
-5%
however is plagued with problems. To
many property sales at the lower end of the market Sep 2013 Sep 2014 Sep 2015
Mosman Units
Total
Sydney Units
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex Suburb Report September 2015 *Rolling 12 month periods to quarter end
The Mosman residential market has underperformed the Sydney metropolitan market by an average of 5.8% each year over the last three years for houses and by 1.0% per year for units.
and in the next quarter, there were more sales at the high end, this would show a large increase in median price, but would not reflect actual capital growth. Therefore, median price best
Capital Growth Calculation: In short, the calculation methodology takes “sale pairs” for every property that has at least two sales recorded. These individual property growth rates are then combined into a complete growth rate for the chosen suburb. The development of this methodology won an international actuarial award in 1992. More recently, a paper issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia (Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-sales Measures, James Hansen, 2006) confirmed this methodology to be superior to those based on simple movements in median price. For more visit www.ashtonrowe.com.au
represents buying patterns.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Our Mosman Team from top left hand corner: Michael Coombs, Jacqui Rowland-Smith, Priscilla Schonell, Scott Thornton, John Welch, Claudia Portale, Adrian Bridges and Anthony Godson.
www.mcgrath.com.au
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
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