September Quarter 2015 Market Report Kirribilli I 2062
I M P O R TA N T I N F O R M AT I O N UPDATED INFORMATION
CONTENT INTEGRITY
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THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. YOU SHOULD SEEK YOUR OWN FINANCIAL ADVICE. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of individuals. It is important that you read the entire document and any supplementary amendments in full before making any decisions. The product and pricing information contained within this document is based on price lists and third party information obtained throughout the course of our Investments. This information has been verified to the best of our ability, but Ashton Rowe accepts no responsibility for reliance on this information. This information has been prepared independently and at our own discretion. It is particularly important that you consider the risk factors that could affect the financial performance of the property. You should carefully consider these factors in light of your particular needs, objectives and financial circumstances (including financial and taxation issues) and seek professional advice from your own professional advisors.
Date compiled 4 November 2015.
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Ki rri bi lli
MARKET OVERVIEW ASHTON ROWE IS ONE OF AUSTR ALIA’S LE ADING PROPERT Y RESE ARCH AND INVESTMENT FIRMS, SPECIALISING IN RESIDENTIAL PROPERT Y.
GUIDE: Read these snippets to interpret the report. STEP 1: Choose your property market (houses or
TOTAL MARK ET
HO USE S
UNITS
PROPERTIES IN SU BUR B
396
2,527
SEPTEMBE R Q UART ER SALES*
SNR
11
TURNOVER
SNR
0.44%
Source:: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census 2011 and local council dwelling approvals * 5% margin for error in this figure due to market information being with held.
2.5
listing price trends
40
1.9
30 1.3 20 0.6
10
Supply to Market
shows the median
SOLD PRICE S
ME DIAN
SNR
and buying
LO WER
SNR
This market is too small to analyse properly.
100
1.2
80
0.9
60
0.6
40
0.3
20
0
0
typically places
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
demand is good
25% of sales are
median and 75%
QUARTILE
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$1,938,750
ME DIAN
$1,362,500
LO WER
$795,300
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
are more than the lower quartile. Finally, 50% of sales are between the upper and lower quartiles. Properties that are priced above the upper quartile
Q3 2009
supply when
four equal groups.
more than the
1.5
Q4 2008
market. Less
recent sales into
upper quartile.
current supply trend is for the
capital growth.
more than the
Supply to Market
Median Price ($m)
shows what the
patterns NOT
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Total Units
properties
to the graph
represents trends
50% of sales are
groups of
bottom table next
from smallest to highest. It best
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
shows the price
STEP 5: The
been arranged
SNR
next to the graph
last quarter.
market.
Quartiles divide
0
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
(supply).
Q3 2009
historically
Q4 2008
0
the market
actually sold in the
properties in that
UPPE R
and property on
STEP 4: The table
divided by total
after they have
50
QUARTILE
Median Price ($m)
STEP 3: The graph
quarterly sales
of all properties
Total Houses
table shows how
hands.
number of
the middle price
STEP 2: The top
are changing
Turnover is the
Median price is
units).
many properties
LEARNING:
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
Supply to market increased 19% taking it 39% below the 7 year average.
are typically more volatile than those priced close to the median.
upward pressure on prices.
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Ki rri bi lli
M A R K E T H E A LT H
AUC TIO NS
LEARNING:
UNI TS
Auction Clearance Rate is the
SE PTEMB E R QUARTER
CLE A R ANC E R ATE
80%
DAYS ON MAR KE T
28
% O F SUPPLY
percentage of houses sold under the hammer or prior to auction. This figure
76%
excludes property
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide SNR - Statistically Not Reliable
passed in at auction. % of Supply is the
UNITS: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER*
percentage of
ADDR ESS
B EDS
B ATH
PRICE
17/ 31 EL AMANG AV, K IRRIBILLI
3
2
$2,250,000
81/ 20 WARUDA ST, KIRRIBILLI
2
2
$2,205,000
2/52 JEFFRE YS ST, KIRRIBILLI
3
2
$1,850,000
6/60 C AR ABEL L A ST, KIRRIBILLI
3
2
$1,725,000
3/6 STAN NARDS PL , KIRRIBILLI
2
1
$1,000,000
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to September 2015
property on the market being sold using the auction method and lets you know the relevance of the auction clearance rate. During a period of high demand the number of auctions typically increase.
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Ki rri bi lli
MARKET COMPOSITION WHICH T YPE OF UNITS ARE SELLING
Last Quarter
Entire Period
16%
23%
32%
52%
1 Beds
26%
51%
2 Beds
3 Beds
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Ki rri bi lli
B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S 1 Bedroom Unit Segment
NOTE: Properties in the
1.5
50
1.2
40
0.9
30
0.6
20
0.3
10
0
0
QUARTILE
Q3 2015
section.
Q4 2014
‘Market Overview’
Q1 2014
instructions in the
Q2 2013
please view
Q3 2012
Supply to Market
page correctly
Q4 2011
To interpret this
Q1 2011
bedrooms.
Q2 2010
on the number of
Q3 2009
segments based
Q4 2008
divided into
Median Price ($m)
house market are
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$658,400
ME DIAN
$640,600
LO WER
$622,800
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 33% taking it 58% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder TIP:
2 Bedroom Unit Segment
When buying to renovate, aim to purchase in the
0.9
30
0.6
20
0.3
10
0
0
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
Q3 2009
Supply to Market
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$1,602,500
ME DIAN
$1,000,000
LO WER
$917,500
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 30% taking it 31% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
3 Bedroom Unit Segment 5.0
50
4.0
40
3.0
30
2.0
20
1.0
10
0
0
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
Supply to Market
QUARTILE
Q3 2009
average.
40
Q4 2008
the long term
1.2
Q4 2008
market is above
Median Price ($m)
when supply to
50
QUARTILE
Median Price ($m)
lowest quartile
1.5
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$2,050,000
ME DIAN
$1,850,000
LO WER
$1,787,500
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 33% taking it 8% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Ki rri bi lli
C A P I TA L G R O W T H
STEP 1: Choose your
SUBURB GRO W TH
LEARNING:
UNITS
Previously, the
property market.
10 Y E A R AVE R AGE*
5.2%
only way to
STEP 2:
3 YE AR AVER AGE*
9.5%
capital growth was
View the top table to see the medium to long term capital
12 MONTHS**
to see how the
median sale price
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex - Suburb Report September 2015 *Annualised capital growth **Capital growth over the last 12 months
of properties sold in one period with the median sale
Units - Capital Growth
suburb.
View the graph
to compare the
14.3%
growth of the
STEP 3:
measure a suburb’s
price of properties
35%
sold in the next
30%
period. This however is
25%
plagued with
suburb has
20%
performed
15%
explain, if in one
against the wider
10%
quarter there were
Sydney region.
problems. To
many property
5%
sales at the lower
-0% -5%
end of the market Sep 2013
Kirribilli Units
Sep 2014
Sep 2015
Total
Sydney Units
and in the next quarter, there were more sales at
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex Suburb Report September 2015 *Rolling 12 month periods to quarter end
the high end, this would show a large increase in median price, but
The Kirribilli residential market has underperformed the Sydney metropolitan market by an average of 1.3% each year over the last three years for units.
would not reflect actual capital growth. Therefore, median price best
Capital Growth Calculation: In short, the calculation methodology takes “sale pairs” for every property that has at least two sales recorded. These individual property growth rates are then combined into a complete growth rate for the chosen suburb. The development of this methodology won an international actuarial award in 1992. More recently, a paper issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia (Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-sales Measures, James Hansen, 2006) confirmed this methodology to be superior to those based on simple movements in median price. For more visit www.ashtonrowe.com.au
represents buying patterns.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
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September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
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