September Quarter 2015 Market Report Willoughby I 2068
I M P O R TA N T I N F O R M AT I O N UPDATED INFORMATION
CONTENT INTEGRITY
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DISCL AIMER Whilst this information has been carefully compiled, no warranty or promise as to its correctness is made or intended. The information outlined within this document also represents subjective interpretation by Ashton Rowe (ACN 144 714 509) and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. Interested parties should undertake independent inquiries and investigations to satisfy themselves that any details herein are true and correct. No guarantee of forecasts are being made by Ashton Rowe about potential capital gains or losses. Past information about capital gains does not imply that such gains or growth will be made in the future. The material in this publication is copyright. This document cannot be reproduced without the express permission of Ashton Rowe. The information contained in this brochure is of a general nature and has been provided at least in part to McGrath Sales Pty Ltd (“McGrath”) by Ashton Rowe. While McGrath has no reason to believe that the information is incorrect, McGrath and its related bodies corporate, directors, agents, contractors and employees makes no representation about the accuracy, reliability, completeness or timeliness of the information contained in the brochure and does no more than pass it on to you. McGrath has no belief one way or to the other as to the accuracy of the information. You should rely on your own enquires and seek appropriate professional advice with respect to any information contained in this brochure.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. YOU SHOULD SEEK YOUR OWN FINANCIAL ADVICE. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of individuals. It is important that you read the entire document and any supplementary amendments in full before making any decisions. The product and pricing information contained within this document is based on price lists and third party information obtained throughout the course of our Investments. This information has been verified to the best of our ability, but Ashton Rowe accepts no responsibility for reliance on this information. This information has been prepared independently and at our own discretion. It is particularly important that you consider the risk factors that could affect the financial performance of the property. You should carefully consider these factors in light of your particular needs, objectives and financial circumstances (including financial and taxation issues) and seek professional advice from your own professional advisors.
Date compiled 16 October 2015.
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
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MARKET OVERVIEW ASHTON ROWE IS ONE OF AUSTR ALIA’S LE ADING PROPERT Y RESE ARCH AND INVESTMENT FIRMS, SPECIALISING IN RESIDENTIAL PROPERT Y.
GUIDE: Read these snippets to interpret the report. STEP 1: Choose your property market (houses or
TOTAL MARK ET
HO USE S
UNITS
1,521
569
17
8
1.12%
1.41%
PROPERTIES IN SU BUR B SEPTEMBE R Q UART ER SALES* TURNOVER
Source:: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census 2011 and local council dwelling approvals * 5% margin for error in this figure due to market information being with held.
2.5
historically (supply). STEP 4: The table
Supply to Market
0
Q3 2015
0
Q4 2014
20
Q1 2014
0.5
Q2 2013
40
Q3 2012
1.0
Q4 2011
60
Q1 2011
the market
1.5
Q2 2010
and property on
80
Q3 2009
listing price trends
2.0
Q4 2008
shows the median
SOLD PRICE S
ME DIAN
$2,015,000
and buying
LO WER
$1,570,000
Supply to market increased 37% taking it 13% below the 7 year average.
1.6
80
1.2
60
0.8
40
0.4
20
0
0
typically places
25% of sales are more than the
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$880,000
ME DIAN
$865,000
LO WER
$851,888
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
are more than the lower quartile. Finally, 50% of sales are between the upper and lower quartiles. Properties that are priced above
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
the upper quartile
Q2 2010
demand is good
four equal groups.
median and 75%
QUARTILE
Q3 2009
supply when
recent sales into
upper quartile.
100
Q4 2008
market. Less
capital growth.
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
current supply trend is for the
patterns NOT
Quartiles divide
Supply to Market
shows what the
represents trends
more than the
2.0
Median Price ($m)
to the graph
from smallest to highest. It best
Total Units
properties
bottom table next
been arranged
50% of sales are
groups of
STEP 5: The
market.
$2,850,000
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
shows the price
last quarter.
properties in that
UPPE R
next to the graph
actually sold in the
divided by total
after they have
100
QUARTILE
Median Price ($m)
STEP 3: The graph
quarterly sales
of all properties
Total Houses
table shows how
hands.
number of
the middle price
STEP 2: The top
are changing
Turnover is the
Median price is
units).
many properties
LEARNING:
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
Supply to market increased 21% taking it 11% above the 7 year average.
are typically more volatile than those priced close to the median.
upward pressure on prices.
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
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M A R K E T H E A LT H
LEARNING:
HOUSES
UN ITS
SEPTE MB ER QUARTER
SEPTEM BE R Q UARTER
CLE A R ANC E R ATE
83%
87%
DAYS ON MAR KE T
42
25
71%
39%
AUC TIO NS
% O F SUPPLY
Auction Clearance Rate is the percentage of houses sold under the hammer or prior to auction. This figure excludes property
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide SNR - Statistically Not Reliable
passed in at auction. % of Supply is the
HOUSES: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER*
percentage of
ADDR ESS
property on the
B EDS
B ATH
PRICE
562 WILLOUG HBY RD, WILLOUGHBY
4
4
$4,600,000
using the auction
4 CE VU AV, WILLOU GHBY
4
2
$2,910,000
you know the
87 MARLBO RO UGH RD, WILLOUGHBY
3
3
$2,850,000
45 CHILTERN RD, WIL LO UGHBY
4
2
$2,375,000
92 L AU REL ST, WIL LO UG HBY
3
1
$2,015,000
market being sold method and lets relevance of the auction clearance rate. During a period of high demand the number of
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to September 2015
auctions typically increase.
UNITS: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER* ADDR ESS
B EDS
B ATH
PRICE
2/1A PE NK IVIL ST, WILLOUGHBY
2
2
$955,000
10/ 451 WILLOU GHBY RD, WILLOUGHBY
1
1
$880,000
91/ 2 ARTARMO N RD, WILLOUGHBY
2
1
$865,000
15/ 636 WILLOU GHBY RD, WILLOUGHBY
2
1
$851,888
2/451 WILLOU GHBY RD, WILLOUGHBY
1
1
$785,000
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to September 2015
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
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MARKET COMPOSITION WHICH T YPE OF HOUSES ARE SELLING
Last Quarter
Entire Period
16%
22%
16% 38%
46%
62%
2 Beds
3 Beds
4 Beds
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.
WHICH T YPE OF UNITS ARE SELLING
Last Quarter
Entire Period
5% 10%
66%
86%
1 Beds
18%
16%
2 Beds
3 Beds
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
2 Bedroom House Segment
Properties in the
30
1.0
20
0.5
10
0
0
QUARTILE
SOLD PRICE S
LEARNING: Statistically Not
UPPE R
$1,450,000
Reliable is usually
ME DIAN
$1,330,000
enough sales
LO WER
$1,240,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
a result of not occurring to produce meaningful
section.
Q3 2015
‘Market Overview’
Q4 2014
instructions in the
Q1 2014
analysis.
please view
Q2 2013
page correctly
1.5
Q3 2012
To interpret this
40
Q4 2011
bedrooms.
2.0
Q1 2011
on the number of
50
Q2 2010
segments based
2.5
Q4 2008
divided into
Median Price ($m)
house market are
Supply to Market
NOTE:
Q3 2009
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B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S
Supply to market decreased 17% taking it 22% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder TIP:
3 Bedroom House Segment
60
2.0
40
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
0
Q4 2011
0
Q1 2011
20
Q2 2010
1.0
QUARTILE
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$2,432,500
ME DIAN
$2,015,000
LO WER
$1,947,500
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 100% taking it 8% above the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
4 Bedroom House Segment 4.0
80
0
Q3 2015
0
Q4 2014
20
Q1 2014
1.0
Q2 2013
40
Q3 2012
2.0
Q4 2011
60
Q1 2011
3.0
Supply to Market
QUARTILE
Q2 2010
average.
3.0
Q3 2009
the long term
80
Q3 2009
market is above
4.0
Q4 2008
when supply to
Median Price ($m)
lowest quartile
Median Price ($m)
purchase in the
Q4 2008
renovate, aim to
Supply to Market
When buying to
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$3,755,000
ME DIAN
$2,910,000
LO WER
$2,642,500
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market decreased 29% taking it 53% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
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B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S 1 Bedroom Unit Segment
NOTE: Properties in the
2.0
50
1.6
40
1.2
30
0.8
20
0.4
10
0
0
QUARTILE
When buying to
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Supply to Market
$856,250
ME DIAN
$832,500
LO WER
$808,750
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market decreased 33% taking it 49% below the 7 year average.
10
0
0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
0.4
Q3 2015
20
Q4 2014
0.8
Q1 2014
30
Q2 2013
1.2
Q3 2012
40
Q4 2011
1.6
Q1 2011
50
Q4 2008
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$910,000
ME DIAN
$865,000
LO WER
$858,444
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market decreased 29% taking it 42% above the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
3 Bedroom Unit Segment
0.8
20
0.4
10
0
0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
30
Q3 2015
1.2
Q4 2014
40
Q1 2014
1.6
Q2 2013
50
Q3 2012
2.0
Q4 2011
average.
2.0
Q4 2008
the long term
Median Price ($m)
market is above
Median Price ($m)
purchase in the when supply to
UPPE R
2 Bedroom Unit Segment
renovate, aim to lowest quartile
SOLD PRICE S
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
Q1 2011
TIP:
Q3 2012
section.
Q4 2011
‘Market Overview’
Q1 2011
instructions in the
Q2 2010
please view
Q2 2010
page correctly
Q2 2010
To interpret this
Q3 2009
bedrooms.
Q3 2009
on the number of
Q3 2009
segments based
Q4 2008
divided into
Median Price ($m)
house market are
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
SNR
ME DIAN
SNR
LO WER
SNR
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market decreased 50% taking it 68% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
W illo ughby STEP 1: Choose your
C A P I TA L G R O W T H
SUBURB GRO W TH
UNITS
7.6%
5.3%
only way to capital growth was
property market.
10 Y E A R AVE R AGE*
STEP 2:
3 YE AR AVER AGE*
13.7%
7.2%
12 MONTHS**
23.9%
9.5%
View the top table to see the medium to long term capital
LEARNING:
HO USE S
Previously, the measure a suburb’s to compare the median sale price
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex - Suburb Report September 2015 *Annualised capital growth **Capital growth over the last 12 months
growth of the
in one period with the median sale
Units - Capital Growth
Houses - Capital Growth
suburb.
of properties sold
price of properties
35%
35%
30%
30%
period. This
25%
25%
however is
suburb has
20%
20%
performed
15%
15%
explain, if in one
against the wider
10%
10%
quarter there were
5%
5%
-0%
-0%
STEP 3: View the graph to see how the
Sydney region.
-5%
Sep 2013 Sep 2014 Sep 2015
Willoughby Houses
Total
Sydney Houses
-5%
sold in the next
plagued with problems. To
many property sales at the lower end of the market and in the next Sep 2013 Sep 2014 Sep 2015
Willoughby Units
Total
Sydney Units
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex Suburb Report September 2015 *Rolling 12 month periods to quarter end
The Willoughby residential market has underperformed the Sydney metropolitan market by an average of 2.2% each year over the last three years for houses and by 3.1% per year for units.
quarter, there were more sales at the high end, this would show a large increase in median price, but would not reflect actual capital growth. Therefore, median price best
Capital Growth Calculation: In short, the calculation methodology takes “sale pairs” for every property that has at least two sales recorded. These individual property growth rates are then combined into a complete growth rate for the chosen suburb. The development of this methodology won an international actuarial award in 1992. More recently, a paper issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia (Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-sales Measures, James Hansen, 2006) confirmed this methodology to be superior to those based on simple movements in median price. For more visit www.ashtonrowe.com.au
represents buying patterns.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Our Chatswood team from top left hand corner: Nick Separovich, Adam Wong, Olivia Chung, Greta Simpson, Fiona Cutler and Nic Dunn.
www.mcgrath.com.au
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
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