September Quarter 2015 Market Report Chatswood I 2067
I M P O R TA N T I N F O R M AT I O N UPDATED INFORMATION
CONTENT INTEGRITY
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THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. YOU SHOULD SEEK YOUR OWN FINANCIAL ADVICE. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of individuals. It is important that you read the entire document and any supplementary amendments in full before making any decisions. The product and pricing information contained within this document is based on price lists and third party information obtained throughout the course of our Investments. This information has been verified to the best of our ability, but Ashton Rowe accepts no responsibility for reliance on this information. This information has been prepared independently and at our own discretion. It is particularly important that you consider the risk factors that could affect the financial performance of the property. You should carefully consider these factors in light of your particular needs, objectives and financial circumstances (including financial and taxation issues) and seek professional advice from your own professional advisors.
Date compiled 16 October 2015.
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Cha t swood
MARKET OVERVIEW ASHTON ROWE IS ONE OF AUSTR ALIA’S LE ADING PROPERT Y RESE ARCH AND INVESTMENT FIRMS, SPECIALISING IN RESIDENTIAL PROPERT Y.
GUIDE: Read these snippets to interpret the report. STEP 1: Choose your property market (houses or
TOTAL MARKET
HOUSES
UNITS
3,170
4,627
44
73
1.39%
1.58%
PROPERTIES IN SUBURB SEPTEMBER QUARTER SALES* TURNOVER
Source:: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census 2011 and local council dwelling approvals * 5% margin for error in this figure due to market information being with held.
4.0
listing price trends
3.0
120
2.0
80
1.0
40
0
0
Supply to Market
shows the median
SOLD PRICES
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
(supply).
Q3 2009
historically
Q4 2008
the market
MEDIAN
$2,180,000
and buying
LOWER
$1,710,000
Supply to market increased 24% taking it 2% below the 7 year average.
200
1.6
160
1.2
120
0.8
80
0.4
40
0
0
typically places
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
demand is good
25% of sales are more than the
median and 75%
QUARTILE UPPER
SOLD PRICES $1,280,000
MEDIAN
$950,000
LOWER
$758,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
are more than the lower quartile. Finally, 50% of sales are between the upper and lower quartiles. Properties that are priced above the upper quartile
Q3 2009
supply when
four equal groups.
more than the
2.0
Q4 2008
market. Less
recent sales into
upper quartile.
current supply trend is for the
capital growth. Quartiles divide
Supply to Market
shows what the
Median Price ($m)
to the graph
patterns NOT
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Total Units
properties
bottom table next
represents trends
50% of sales are
groups of
STEP 5: The
from smallest to highest. It best
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
shows the price
last quarter.
been arranged
$2,405,000
next to the graph
actually sold in the
market.
UPPER
and property on
STEP 4: The table
properties in that
after they have
160
QUARTILE
Median Price ($m)
STEP 3: The graph
divided by total
of all properties
Total Houses
table shows how
hands.
quarterly sales
the middle price
STEP 2: The top
are changing
number of
Median price is
units).
many properties
LEARNING: Turnover is the
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
Supply to market decreased 4% taking it 1% below the 7 year average.
are typically more volatile than those priced close to the median.
upward pressure on prices.
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Cha t swood
M A R K E T H E A LT H
LEARNING:
HOUSES
UNITS
SEPTEMBER QUARTER
SEPTEMBER QUARTER
CLE AR ANCE R ATE
77%
77%
DAYS O N MARKET
29
49
61%
28%
AUC TIO NS
% OF SUPPLY
Auction Clearance Rate is the percentage of houses sold under the hammer or prior to auction. This figure excludes property
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide SNR - Statistically Not Reliable
passed in at auction. % of Supply is the
HOUSES: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER*
percentage of
ADDRESS
property on the
BEDS
BATH
PRICE
17 CHATSWOOD AV, CHATSWOOD
3
2
$4,000,000
using the auction
5 DARDANELLES RD, CHATSWOOD
6
5
$3,220,000
you know the
15 VIOLET ST, CHATSWOOD
4
2
$3,200,000
18 NERIDAH ST, CHATSWOOD
4
3
$2,950,000
4 DOWEL ST, CHATSWOOD
4
2
$2,810,000
market being sold method and lets relevance of the auction clearance rate. During a period of high demand the number of
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to September 2015
auctions typically increase.
UNITS: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER* ADDRESS
BEDS
BATH
PRICE
5205/438 VIC TORIA AV, CHAT SWOOD
4
2
$3,380,000
3707/7 R AILWAY ST, CHATSWOOD
3
2
$2,533,000
2503/11 R AILWAY ST, CHATSWOOD
3
2
$2,450,000
2206/11 R AILWAY ST, CHATSWOOD
4
2
$2,282,000
2/22 ASHLE Y ST, CHATSWOOD
4
2
$1,630,000
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to September 2015
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Ch at swo o d
MARKET COMPOSITION WHICH T YPE OF HOUSES ARE SELLING
Last Quarter
Entire Period
23%
26% 39%
41%
36%
35%
3 Beds
4 Beds
5+ Beds
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.
WHICH T YPE OF UNITS ARE SELLING
Last Quarter
Entire Period
15%
22%
27%
35%
50%
1 Beds
51%
2 Beds
3 Beds
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
3 Bedroom House Segment
NOTE:
4.0
0
0
QUARTILE
SOLD PRICE S
LEARNING: Statistically Not
UPPE R
$2,238,000
Reliable is usually
ME DIAN
$1,720,000
enough sales
LO WER
$1,500,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
a result of not occurring to produce meaningful
‘Market Overview’ section.
Q3 2015
analysis.
Q4 2014
instructions in the
20
Q1 2014
please view
1.0
Q2 2013
page correctly
40
Q3 2012
To interpret this
2.0
Q4 2011
bedrooms.
60
Q1 2011
on the number of
3.0
Q2 2010
segments based
80
Q4 2008
divided into
Median Price ($m)
house market are
Supply to Market
Properties in the
Q3 2009
Ch at swo o d
B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S
Supply to market decreased 36% taking it 5% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder TIP: When buying to
4 Bedroom House Segment
2.0
40
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
0
Q4 2011
0
Q1 2011
20
Q2 2010
1.0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
60
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
$2,615,000
ME DIAN
$2,362,500
LO WER
$2,157,500
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market stayed the same taking it on par with below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
5 Bedroom House Segment 4.0
80
0
Q3 2015
0
Q4 2014
20
Q1 2014
1.0
Q2 2013
40
Q3 2012
2.0
Q4 2011
60
Q1 2011
3.0
Supply to Market
QUARTILE
Q2 2010
average.
3.0
Q3 2009
the long term
80
Q3 2009
market is above
4.0
Q4 2008
when supply to
Median Price ($m)
lowest quartile
Median Price ($m)
purchase in the
Q4 2008
renovate, aim to
SOLD PRICE S
UPPE R
SNR
ME DIAN
SNR
LO WER
SNR
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 33% taking it 14% above the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Cha t swood
B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S 1 Bedroom Unit Segment
NOTE: Properties in the
2.0
100
1.6
80
1.2
60
0.8
40
0.4
20
0
0
QUARTILE
Q3 2015
section.
Q4 2014
‘Market Overview’
Q1 2014
instructions in the
Q2 2013
please view
Q3 2012
Supply to Market
page correctly
Q4 2011
To interpret this
Q1 2011
bedrooms.
Q2 2010
on the number of
Q3 2009
segments based
Q4 2008
divided into
Median Price ($m)
house market are
SOLD PRICES
UPPER
$789,000
MEDIAN
$691,000
LOWER
$611,250
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 12% taking it 33% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder TIP:
2 Bedroom Unit Segment
When buying to renovate, aim to purchase in the
1.2
60
0.8
40
0.4
20
0
0
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
Q3 2009
Supply to Market
UPPER
SOLD PRICES $1,165,000
MEDIAN
$980,000
LOWER
$887,500
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market increased 3% taking it 4% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
3 Bedroom Unit Segment 2.0
100
1.6
80
1.2
60
0.8
40
0.4
20
0
0
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
Supply to Market
QUARTILE
Q3 2009
average.
80
Q4 2008
the long term
1.6
Q4 2008
market is above
Median Price ($m)
when supply to
100
QUARTILE
Median Price ($m)
lowest quartile
2.0
SOLD PRICES
UPPER
$1,482,500
MEDIAN
$1,292,500
LOWER
$1,095,000
SNR = Statistically Not Reliable
Supply to market decreased 38% taking it 32% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Ch at swo o d STEP 1: Choose your
C A P I TA L G R O W T H
SUBURB GRO W TH
HO USE S
UNITS
8.3%
7.3%
property market.
10 Y E A R AVE R AGE*
STEP 2:
3 YE AR AVER AGE*
17.7%
12.1%
12 MONTHS**
24.4%
15.6%
View the top table to see the medium to long term capital
LEARNING: Previously, the only way to measure a suburb’s capital growth was to compare the median sale price
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex - Suburb Report September 2015 *Annualised capital growth **Capital growth over the last 12 months
growth of the
Houses - Capital Growth
suburb.
of properties sold in one period with the median sale
Units - Capital Growth
price of properties
35%
35%
sold in the next
30%
30%
period. This
25%
25%
suburb has
20%
20%
performed
15%
15%
explain, if in one
against the wider
10%
10%
quarter there were
5%
5%
-0%
-0%
STEP 3: View the graph to see how the
Sydney region.
-5%
Sep 2013 Sep 2014 Sep 2015
Chatswood Houses
Total
Sydney Houses
-5%
however is plagued with problems. To
many property sales at the lower end of the market Sep 2013 Sep 2014 Sep 2015
Chatswood Units
Total
Sydney Units
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex Suburb Report September 2015 *Rolling 12 month periods to quarter end
The Chatswood residential market has outperformed the Sydney metropolitan market by an average of 1.9% each year over the last three years for houses and by 1.8% per year for units.
and in the next quarter, there were more sales at the high end, this would show a large increase in median price, but would not reflect actual capital growth. Therefore, median price best
Capital Growth Calculation: In short, the calculation methodology takes “sale pairs” for every property that has at least two sales recorded. These individual property growth rates are then combined into a complete growth rate for the chosen suburb. The development of this methodology won an international actuarial award in 1992. More recently, a paper issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia (Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-sales Measures, James Hansen, 2006) confirmed this methodology to be superior to those based on simple movements in median price. For more visit www.ashtonrowe.com.au
represents buying patterns.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex
September Quarter 2015 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
Our Chatswood team from top left hand corner: Nick Separovich, Adam Wong, Olivia Chung, Greta Simpson, Fiona Cutler and Nic Dunn.
www.mcgrath.com.au
September Quarter 2015 Š Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2015 Report provided exclusively to McGrath Estate Agents
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