Automotive Megatrends Magazine - Q4 2014 by Automotive World

AUTOMOTIVE MEGATRENDS Magazine | Q4 2014

The Freight Efficiency Issue

#ConnectedCar #PowertrainInnovation #eMobility #Manufacturing&Materials #Retail(R)evolution #Safety

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Welcome to Megatrends Q4 2014

Welcome Welcome to Automotive Megatrends Magazine - the only global publication dedicated to the business models, technologies and trends which are shaping the automotive industry of tomorrow.

Core focus areas

Connected Vehicles

Road Freight Efficiency

eMobility

Manufacturing & Materials

Powertrain Innovation

Retail (R)evolution

Safety

Readership Every quarter, Automotive Megatrends Magazine is sent to 20,000+ opted-in automotive industry stakeholders:

Suppliers

39%

OEMs

29%

Finance / Consultants

12%

Oil / Lubricants

Logistics

Government

Academia

Other

The publication is downloaded in more than 150 countries worldwide:

27% 11%

29%

Publisher: Automotive Megatrends Ltd 1-3 Washington Buildings Stanwell Road, Penarth CF64 2AD, UK www.automotiveworld.com T: +44 (0) 2920 707 021 hello@automotiveworld.com Registered number: 800516 VAT number: GB 171 5423 23 automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Editor: Martin Kahl

Supplier Freddie Holmes

Business Editor: Megan Lampinen

Powertrain & eMobility Michael Nash

Manufacturing & Materials David Isaiah

Production & Design: Michael Franklin & Anmol Mothy

Electronics & Safety Rachel Boagey

Chief Executive: Gareth Davies

ÂŠ Automotive Megatrends Ltd

Automotive Megatrends Magazine ISSN: 2053 776X

Megatrends | 3

Contents

Contents > About this issue S MEGATREND AUTOMOTIVE Magazine | Q4 2014

9 - Europe’s CV industry, a decade from now Automotive Megatrends Europe 2014 opened with a panel debate on the future of trucking in Europe. By Martin Kahl

> Freight Efficiency

e ficiency Issu The Freight Ef obility novation #eM

r #PowertrainIn #Safety #ConnectedCa terials #Retail(R)evolution ng&Ma #Manufacturi

Welcome to Automotive Megatrends Magazine - the freight efficiency issue Greener, quieter, safer and connected - the truck of the future may even be smart enough to drive itself. But there are many questions: What does the future hold for trucking? What will the truck of the future be for? Who - or what - will drive it, and what will power it? In this issue, we ask industry stakeholders their views on the future of trucking. Automotive Megatrends Magazine is about more than Freight Efficiency, however; this issue may focus on all things freight, but it also addresses the other megatrends shaping the future automotive industry: Connectivity, Powertrain Innovation, eMobility, Manufacturing & Materials, the Retail (R)evolution and Safety. Enjoy the magazine and join the debate:

11 - Keep on trucking! How will trucking change over the next ten years? We talked to Scania, Continental, Delphi, Torotrak, Walmart and leading industry consultants to ﬁnd out whether we should prepare for fully autonomous electric megatrucks, or a more gradual evolution

18 - The future of urban mobility All around the world, people are ﬂocking to cities. This will be accompanied by massive growth in urban traffic, which is expected to triple by 2050. 23 - Fleet management system adoption gathers pace in Eastern Europe The adoption of fleet management systems (FMS) in Eastern Europe (EE) remains low but it's gaining momentum, writes Indraneel Bardhan, Managing Partner at EOS Intelligence

26 - ‘Clean cold’ transport technologies come in from the cold There’s an urgent need to develop sustainable transport refrigeration systems to replace the highly polluting diesel-powered TRUs that dominate the industry today, writes Professor Toby Peters

30 - New electric bus puts Volvo in the zone Volvo's new hybrid bus has a heavy focus on energy management. By Michael Nash

Martin Kahl, Editor

4 | Megatrends

32 - Long-term funding needed to improve crumbling US infrastructure Ian C. Graig of Global Policy Group considers the impact of public policy on long-term freight efficiency in the United States

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Contents

> Connected Vehicles

The infotainment landscape is changing - and it’s happening quickly

39 - Self-driving cars are already here. Somebody tell the regulators! Martin Kahl talks to Volvo Cars, Delphi and Thatcham about the challenges of bringing self-driving cars to market

36 - Car as a service: a trend supported by IoT

Repurposing time with the automotive interior of the future

The connected car could see the automotive industry change more in the next ten to 15 years than it has in a long time, says Richard Cornish, Head of Internet of Things at Xchanging

> eMobility

53 - Battery chemistry and the hybrid, plug-in hybrid stop-gap Growth in plug-in hybrids ahead of improved battery EV technology, and China’s rising interest in hybrid powertrains are two key e-mobility trends identiﬁed by Kevin Mak, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics

Interview: Stefan Pischinger, Chief Executive, FEV

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Electric vehicles in a driverless future

London, the EV megacity

Megatrends | 5

Contents

> Powertrain Innovation

New emissions test procedure could lead to radical new powertrain strategies

Fuel consumption in the real world

74 - The Conti-Schaeffler GTC, where 1+1=3 Continental and Schaeffler have teamed up to combine powertrain technologies using a Ford Focus 1.0-litre EcoBoost. Michael Nash investigates

78 - AWD gains traction with the mainstream The future of AWD lies in e-axle hybridisation and disconnect technology, says Rob Rickell, GKN Drivelineâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Senior Vice President of Engineering. By Martin Kahl

> Manufacturing & Materials

82 - Supply chain complexity needs logistics planning simplicity An emergency logistics strategy is the key to enabling higher risk supply chain strategies in support of a dynamic global manufacturing footprint, writes Robert Wright

Joined up thinking - the art of vehicle lightweighting

6 | Megatrends

Designing the future of travel â&#x20AC;&#x201C; in 3D

Steel + Aluminium = Lighter Weight

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Contents

> Retail (R)evolution

94 - The rise of the sharing economy The UK government’s interest in car sharing is crucial: what happens in London is likely to be replicated ‘in pretty well every major city in the years to come’. By Megan Lampinen

Automotive sales and marketing needs to change as ‘Gen-Y’ comes of age – and here’s why

Catering for connected consumers? Get yourself connected!

100

What can vehicle manufacturers learn from retailers?

> Safety

105 - Meet the crash test dummies who risk a limb so you don't have to Crash test dummies undergo collision after collision, and are designed to last for years. But their days might be numbered, as computer simulation develops to the point where it could prove more effective than the dummies themselves, writes Rachel Boagey

110 - 360 vision - the future of vehicle safety? Delphi is creating technology to give trucks and light duty vehicles a 360 degree view of their surroundings, as the supplier’s Mike Thoeny explains to Rachel Boagey

112 - OEMs still taking advantage of lack of car safety standards in India New test results from NCAP show how manufacturers can still sell substandard models in emerging markets — as it’s all perfectly legal. By Rachel Boagey automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

102

Go Safe: a supplier's message to its ﬂeet contractors

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automotive industry news analysis, research and events

Visit AutomotiveWorld.com for the latest CV and passenger car industry news analysis and comment

Featuring: Webinars, Briefings, OEM production and regional sales forecasts, eMagazines and more

Automotive Megatrends Europe 2014

Europe’s CV industry, a decade from now

For more information on Automotive Megatrends events, go to: http://www.automotiveworld.com/conferences/

Panel from left to right: Sandeep Kar (Frost & Sullivan), Peter Harris (UPS), Matts Deleryd (Volvo), Martin Kahl (Automotive World), Manfred Schuckert (Daimler), James Hookham (Freight Transport Association)

Automotive Megatrends Europe 2014 opened with a panel debate on the future of trucking in Europe. By Martin Kahl ust how will Europe’s commercial vehicle market look in a decade? That was the theme of the Big Picture panel debate which opened Automotive Megatrends Europe 2014.

The two-day conference was held in Brussels in September 2014. Inevitably, regulation was at the heart of the discussion; but doesn’t everything in trucking cascade down from regulation? Euro VI is old news now, and industry insiders and observers are trying to second-guess what might come next. Whatever it entails, there’s widespread agreement that Euro VI was far from the end of truck industry regulation in Europe. The European Commission has not been shy in underlining its view that regulation has helped improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions – and so, it says, there should be more. Accepting that, and that everything cascades down from regulation, one key question is whether the potential Euro VI.2, or Euro VII, or whatever it’s called, should include fuel economy. Don’t do it, said the panel – it’s a commercial issue, not one that should be regulated. OEMs want to sell economical trucks, and ﬂeets don’t want to spend money on fuel, so economy is a given. automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

What follows should come as no surprise, although in a discussion about how to meet regulations in an industry led by legislation it’s easy to lose sight of this, so we’ll say it anyway: trucking is a commercial business. OEMs and suppliers, and the fleets that buy their products, are in it to make money. It they don’t, they’ll stop doing it – and the tablets, smartphones and PCs on which articles such as this are read, or the chairs and desks which the readers are using, or indeed more or less anything surrounding the reader, simply would not be there. “It got here by truck” – and it needs to keep on getting here by truck. Those trucks need to be designed, developed and built; and they need to cost no more than what companies like panellists UPS and the FTA and its members are prepared to pay. And what they want to pay is as little as possible more than they currently do, for a genuine and quantifiable return on investment. This focuses us once more on the question of how the industry will look in a decade. Should OEMs, suppliers and fleets consider new and alternative fuels and powertrains? The large fleets can afford to do so, using technology developed by global OEMs like Daimler and Volvo, also represented on the panel.

But smaller fleets need to count the cost and risk of switching from tried, tested and heavily-invested technologies – namely diesel powertrains. And those smaller fleets make up the majority of truck buyers and users. There’s still much that can be done in terms of improving the efficiency – currently only in the 40% bracket – and reducing the emissions of the diesel engine. Let’s work with that, as it will remain the dominant technology for the foreseeable future – the panel was in general agreement. Back to the future, then. Europe’s CV industry in a decade – more efficient than today? Yes. Connected? Inevitably, with the associated benefits to freight efficiency and safety. Powered by alternative fuels and alternative powertrains? Unlikely – diesel technology, infrastructure and acceptance are here to stay. There’s some rumbling about what the FTA’s James Hookham called the “demonisation of diesel”, but for the next decade at least, it’ll remain the dominant fuel. Regulated? Oh yes – and most likely with something starting with “Euro” and ending with a number higher than VI. A version of this article first appeared on AutomotiveWorld.com Megatrends | 9

Freight Efficiency

Keep on trucking! Industry stakeholders consider the truck of the future How will trucking change over the next ten years? We talked to Scania, Continental, Delphi, Torotrak, Walmart and leading industry consultants to find out whether we should prepare for fully autonomous electric mega-trucks, or a more gradual evolution By Martin Kahl

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

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Freight Efficiency n December 2013, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) hosted an event in Brussels aimed at deﬁning ‘The Truck of the Future. The day was opened by Erik Jonnaert, Secretary General of ACEA, and featured among its speakers Dr Wolfgang Bernhart, the head of Daimler Trucks. The truck of the future will be innovative, fuel-efficient and safe was the event’s sub-title and conclusion.

2014 has seen the topic of the truck of the future make headlines, led by a series of announcements from OEMs, suppliers and even fleets offering up their own visions of the truck of the future. Daimler’s Future Truck 2025 has been perhaps the most widely discussed, but also of note were ZF’s Innovation Truck, the Walmart Advanced Vehicle Experience concept truck, and more application-specific concepts like DAF’s CF Silent. To understand a little better the direction the truck industry is taking as we head towards the future in which those trucks might operate, Megatrends interviewed a number of stakeholders from across the industry, using a set of specific topics to form the basis of the discussion. On the understanding that this could only scratch the surface of the subject, we present the highlights of those discussions.

What we learned was that the truck of the future will do a job largely unchanged from today – people will still want stuff, that stuff will still need to be moved, and there’s nothing better to move that stuff than a truck. That truck will be application-speciﬁc, cost and energy-efficient, safe and connected; it will be capable of using a variety of fuels in conjunction with electriﬁcation technology, and it will be longer and lighter than today’s trucks enabling a much-increased payload when compared with current freight movement. A human will still be needed in the cab, but the role will be in transition from driver to operator, frequently ceding control to the selfdriving vehicle technology, especially for activities like platooning and parking.

“Should the fast paced development of driver assistance functions and respective software and hardware continue as expected, we will see trucks with the ﬁrst fully automated driving functions on the road by 2025,” said Dr. Michael Ruf, Executive Vice President Commercial Vehicles & Aftermarket at Continental. “There will still be further enhancements to cover even more situations where trucks will drive autonomously. The degree of autonomous driving will steadily increase. This will lead to safer and more efficient trucks as well as a signiﬁcant reduction in CO2 emissions. Connectivity, new driver information and advanced driver assistance systems will enable this. The trucks of the future will be able to see beyond the line of sight and thus prepare for road and traffic conditions.”

Deﬁning 'the truck of the future' We begin with a general and deliberately open-ended question: Looking at the world of trucking in 2025 and beyond, what will deﬁne 'the truck of the future'? The truck of the future will be longer, heavier, cleaner and much smarter, said Örjan Åslund, Product Affairs at Scania; Åslund expects the truck to be part of a wider logistics network that is “masterminded” by a body that collects and shares information between all stakeholders involved.

Mike Roeth is the Executive Director of the North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE). “I think it will be fuelled with renewable fuels, and be much more efficient, no matter which fuel,” he told Megatrends. “Traffic will be organised, with platooning, dedicated truck lanes and scheduled deliveries and pickups. Intermodal transportation will continue to grow, with an emerging intermodal concept utilising more purpose-built trucks for different segments of the route, resulting in increasingly efficient movement of goods from one truck to another.

At the 2014 IAA Commercial Vehicles show, Continental presented ‘eHorizon’, a solution which combines crowd-sourced navigation data with highly detailed maps to create a “networked electronic horizon” to facilitate, amongst other things, anticipative driving. The system analyses the road ahead, including information such as traffic and road topography, to adapt the powertrain for efficient, comfortable and safer driving. ‘Connected eHorizon’ introduces crowdsourcing to further reﬁne the system.

12 | Megatrends

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Freight Efficiency

The overriding trend driving the industry is globalisation, believes Richard Green, Business Line Manager at Delphi Diesel Systems. “I see this leading to platform strategies in vehicles and in technologies just as it has with passenger cars,” he told Megatrends. Delphi has launched a new fuel injection system for heavy duty applications, which it describes as highly advanced. “We designed it so that the same engineering platform can be used to create simplified systems for developing markets,” said Green, adding that although lower cost, they are not lower tech. “They simply offer the right level of performance for each market using the best technologies available worldwide.” Green expects the next decade to see a dramatic improvement in truck operating costs and in safety. “The world economies still seem a little fragile, and truck operator margins continue to be slim, so using technology to keep their costs down will be vital,” he said. This includes light weight and more efficient engines, as well as active safety, with mandated fitment in Europe that exceeds that in the passenger car market. “We’re working closely with the truck manufacturers to introduce these vital life-saving technologies, and my feeling is that we will see substantial growth in fitment across the developed markets by 2025.”

correct some of the issues that have arisen in the quest for low CO2,” says Torotrak’s Business Development Director. “That means introducing technologies that are less complex, take up less space, are lighter and, most importantly, improve fuel economy. That will require some new technical approaches across the vehicle and in particular in powertrain architecture.” As mentioned above, retail giant Walmart this year unveiled it vision for the future of trucking. The striking and futuristic Walmart Advanced Vehicle Experience concept truck was developed with Peterbilt and a number of suppliers. In the US, Walmart operates over 6,000 Class 8 tractors and around 60,000 53-foot trailers, where its ﬂeet drives about 700 million miles every year. According to Elizabeth Fretheim, Director of Logistics Sustainability at Walmart, telematics and automation will play key roles in deﬁning the truck of the future.

“Telematics could mean trucks talking to trucks, improved efficiency, or trucks talking back to the maintenance shops.” Green, safe, connected and smart will define the truck of the future, summed up Sandeep Kar, Global Director, Automotive & Transportation Research at Frost & Sullivan. It will be a green truck, with a reduced emission footprint and higher fuel efficiency than today; it will be a safe truck; and it will be a connected truck, linked to the world outside through telematics for vehicle to vehicle (V2V) and vehicle to infrastructure (V2I) communication. “When you add these three together it becomes evident that the truck of the future will be a smart truck,” Kar concludes. The truck of the future depends on the role of the future truck Crucial to defining the truck of the future is defining the role of trucks in the future. Pinning our discussion on

Active safety and efficiency are the top priorities for the truck of the future, as far as Tobias Knichel is concerned. “With Euro VI emissions now largely achieved, and the next phase of regulations likely to be a less dramatic step, we are in a position to try to automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

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Freight Efficiency

“We wanted to push ourselves and our vendor partners just a little bit further”, says Walmart’s Elizabeth Fretheim. The Walmart concept truck uses conventional technology paired with sophisticated powertrain, electronics and trailer technology to improve efficiency and safety. Key powertrain features include a microturbine that works with a battery and electric motor; the absence of a radiator permits the tractor’s convex nose design, which improves aerodynamics by 20% and fuel efficiency by 10%. Sliding doors provide entry to a cab that features a centrally-positioned driver’s seat and a customisable electronic dash; and the trailer is equipped with 53-foot carbon ﬁbre panels.

the target date commonly used in the industry – 2025 – Megatrends began to prod a little deeper, to understand the panel’s views on how the nature of trucking might have changed by the end of the next decade. Interestingly, there was little optimism that the role of trucks will be much changed by 2025, with NACFE’s Roeth summing up the general feeling: its role will not have changed as much as we might think. “Goods are goods and need to be hauled.” A number of factors will decide how and whether the role of trucks will change, says Continental’s Ruf: the vehicle manufacturer’s roadmap, technical and legal requirements, society’s acceptance and a

measurable benefit for truck fleets. Assuming the introduction of automated driving functions, “trucks will more than ever be seen as a vital means to transport goods, leading to reduced emissions and improved safety. They will thus continue to be viewed as being sustainable, ecological and efficient.” Scania’s Åslund agrees: “They will still be the most vital, efficient and flexible means for goods transportation, but integrated in inter-modal systems to a much higher extent.” Oliver Dixon is a truck industry consultant and Principal at West End Companies, a US-EU based boutique analysis firm. He too remains

Volvo's FH with I-Shift Dual Clutch gearbox is the first truck to use race car clutch technology; Volvo says I-Shift offers seamless gear changes, improving performance, driveability, comfort and hill climb performance

14 | Megatrends

unconvinced that the role of the truck will have changed meaningfully by 2025. “Transportation will remain a derived demand, and it is hard to envisage a situation in which road transport cedes any great part of its market share to any other mode. That said, while the role remains the same, the means by which it is fulfilled will change markedly - and indeed already has. Fundamentally, a truck merely enables revenue, and that we still look upon it as a product in isolation to a broader system is now changing. From this perspective, connectivity and a systems-based approach is the apparent direction in which we are now moving. The product serves to enable the system and needs to be compliant and efficient in so doing, but beyond that it looks to be a homogenised and ultimately commoditised item.” Frost & Sullivan’s Kar believes that by 2025, trucks will be more than just products, they will be solutions, he says. “These will be smart systems that offer supply chain effectiveness and efficiency beneﬁts, and deliver time and mission-critical information to the ﬂeet and the transportation infrastructure. Trucks will still haul freight but freight will be lighter, and so will trucks be. Trucks will enable hub and spoke logistics in large megacities, which means mega-trucks will bring large freight loads to the outer peripheries of cities and smaller city trucks will take the freight from warehouses and transfer points to the inner cores of cities.” automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Freight Efficiency The truck of the future will be powered by...diesel? Driving trucks into cities is becoming more challenging, not only because of congestion, but also because of the introduction of low emission zones (LEZs). With a variety of powertrain solutions being promoted by OEMs and suppliers, Megatrends wanted to know what will be the likely dominant powertrain technology in the truck of the future. Not surprisingly, there was widespread agreement that the diesel engine remains the clear leader, with a qualifying assumption that there will be a role for either alternative fuels or alternative powertrain technology. Scania’s Åslund: “By 2025, the diesel engine will still play an important role, but an increasing share of all trucks will be powered with what we today call alternative fuels, such as biogas, biodiesel and bioethanol. Electrification will also play an important role, hybrid trucks will be common and some transport tasks will be performed by trucks running on electrified roads.” According to Frost & Sullivan data, diesel will power 81% of all new medium and heavy duty trucks in 2022, with natural gas expected to fuel 8% of the medium and heavy duty trucks sold that year. “Conventional battery hybrids will certainly be on the price lists, but the enormous cost will keep market penetration down,” says Knichel, who adds that he cannot see a significant move away from diesel internal combustion engines for heavier trucks. As a result, significant improvements are needed in IC technology, including more downsizing, more efficiency and new combustion strategies. “Part of achieving that has to be a move to more efficient transmissions and tighter integration between engine and transmission. Today’s gearboxes address this with a growing proliferation of ratios, but the result is cost, weight and packaging volume that are not ideal in this very competitive market.” Continental’s Ruf, too, says diesel will remain dominant in 2025, but this will be in conjunction with technologies aimed at drastically reducing CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. He sees related solutions like SCR technologies, downsizing, downspeeding, combustion optimisation or micro-hybridisation as automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

playing a key role. “Especially dominant for future powertrain technology will be the connected powertrain,” he adds. “By this, we mean the integration of all available environmental information and data, such as the road topography, other vehicles, traffic and road conditions, into the powertrain controller strategy, leading to an optimisation of the driving cycle, the gear shift point or downhill energy.” WestEndCo’s Dixon also believes the fuel status quo will remain unchanged: “If we assume that both diesel supply and legislation remain constant, I find it difficult to see any huge shift away from diesel powering the majority of the parc and natural gas a few niche applications. Of course, the impact of well-meaning if misinformed legislation is well known to the transport industry, and if we are to see a change, my belief is that it will come from this angle.” Fear of change is a factor in the continued dominance of diesel, says Delphi’s Green: “Although other energy sources will make some headway, in 2025 I am sure the dominant powertrain technology will still be diesel as it has a high specific energy content. Alternative fuels are interesting, with reliability that is already as good as diesels. They will have a place in 2025 but the industry is conservative and no one likes trail blazing. They also need support; the network needs investment so that workshops can handle gas vehicles, which will also help to solve the residual value issue.” Roeth of NACFE, however, is more optimistic of a significant shift in powertrain thinking. “We will have advanced hybrids and electrification of many subsystems as well as be utilising renewable fuels,” he says.

“They will be smart, requiring much less human intervention to drive the trucks safely and efficiently.” And providing the fleet perspective on powertrain selection is Walmart’s Fretheim, who emphasises the company’s public commitment to 100% renewable energy, including the fuel for its vehicles. “As we look forward, natural gas is definitely interesting, even as a transition fuel. There’s a lot of focus right now on understanding the polyfuel market. We need to figure out how to have a powertrain and an infrastructure that supports that, where you can go from one part of the country to another and not necessarily have the same feedstock fuel, but you have an engine and a powertrain that can utilise that fuel.” Self-driving trucks – Independence Day for drivers? We come now to the headline-grabbing aspect of the truck of the future: the inevitability of self-driving trucks. Much was made of self-driving vehicle technology when Daimler launched its Future Truck 2025 in mid-2014. That vehicle can drive itself in Highway Pilot at up 85kph (53mph), allowing the driver to do things other than driving. Will, then, self-driving trucks still be making headlines in 2025? Or will they have become the norm? According to Scania’s Åslund, such trucks will be common in 2025. “All premium trucks will be self-driving to some extent, only supervised by the driver, and able to communicate with other vehicles, such as for platooning reasons. On-site trucks, such as in mines, will be capable of autonomous operations, only supervised from control towers.”

The CF Silent, DAF's extra quiet distribution truck, will be available from 2015. On the dashboard is a 'Silent' button which activates engine software to limit torque and engine speed. Gears are changed at lower engine speeds, and gearbox encapsulation also helps reduce noise

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Freight Efficiency Frost & Sullivan data shows 1.5-2.0% of all new HD trucks in 2025 featuring this technology. However, whether selfdriving trucks will be on the roads is not a question of technology, says Kar. “The challenge is how to package this technology and sell it to fleet managers and owner-operators. Is there a total cost of ownership (TCO) benefit to be had? Will fleets and owner-operators see value in investing in these trucks? That said, technology is progressing fast and certain vocations such as heavy haul dedicated route, port trucks, and so on are warming up to these trucks.” The need for efficient, safe and environmentallyfriendly goods transportation will remain unchanged, says Continental’s Ruf. “These demands increasingly call for intelligent commercial vehicles. There will still be further enhancements to cover even more situations where trucks will drive autonomously. The degree of autonomous driving will steadily increase, leading to more comfortable, safer and more efficient trucks.” NACFE deals on a daily basis with fleets, OEMs and authorities, and Mike Roeth, believes the industry will take a slow, methodical approach to the introduction of self-driving trucks. “Early adopters will use private, non-public roads and areas with less congestion,” says Roeth. “Autonomous operation already exists with some mining trucks and agricultural tractors. The next steps in my mind would be yard spotters, drayage and automated parking. By 2025, we will have certain areas for self-driving trucks that provide a driver a set period of time to regain control, maybe ten seconds. A side benefit to this would be the fuel savings for long distances, through platooning, and more consistent, better routing for urban driving.” A further note of caution comes from WestEndCo’s Dixon, who warns not of technological and legislative challenges, but of the much more fundamental opposition to self-driving trucks that could come from the general public. “The automotive industry was made to look plain foolish by Google and its driverless car prototype, and my sense is that much 16 | Megatrends

of this current interest is a hedge against that happening with trucks. The truck industry can be certain of one thing, and that is that it is heartily unloved by the public that beneﬁts from its presence. If the public regards driven trucks that deliver most of their modern existence as diabolical things, then I'd argue that the prospect of the same but without human control will prove very difficult to drive through in terms of legislation.” Delphi’s Green agrees. Most of the technology already exists, he says; the challenge lies in unanswered legislative, liability and consumer acceptance questions. Rather than self-driving trucks, which Green believes remain decades away, much closer are “trucks that offer a very high level of driver support, or which can drive themselves with operator supervision in the cab.” Whether trucks will be fully automated or not, there’s agreement that they will be capable of controlling certain tasks such as platooning and parking. “I don't think we're going to see self-driving trucks, not in the next ten years,” says Walmart’s Fretheim, “but we will see automation that assists and improves the safety and efficiency of the trucks, where the truck understands the operating environment that it's in and changes its parameters to operate more effectively.” Interestingly, Fretheim believes there will be a regional difference in response to and acceptance of self-driving truck technology. “Deﬁnitely in the US I don't think it will be the norm, not in ten years, although you may see further developments in Europe than we will in the US. I don't think the regulations or the necessary infrastructure or public support, or even the technology, will move that fast. I think you'll see movement towards that with things like Collision Avoidance or Lane Keeping, but a full self-driving truck? I don't think you'll see that in ten years.” The long and heavy debate over weights and dimensions The Freight Transport Association in the UK, Germany’s VDA, which represents the interests of the country’s automotive industry, and ACEA, the organisation which represents vehicle manufacturers in

Europe, have all called for rules to be changed to allow larger, longer trucks. There are senior executives in the European Commission, for example, who support longer trucks and road trains, but who also acknowledge the sensitivities caused by differences in national legislation in Europe - and similarly, state legislation in the US. Given that the issue of truck weights and dimensions is so contentious, primarily in Europe but also in many other trucking regions, the question is, will it still be a concern in 2025? Or can we expect mega-trucks to be the norm? Those we spoke to appeared to agree that longer and larger trucks will be on the roads a decade from now, but as part of an application-specific approach. As Scania’s Åslund put it, “where it’s appropriate...since the benefits regarding transport capacity and reduced environmental footprint are so obvious.” Such trucks, says Kar, will not be the norm, but will be used where necessary in certain regions for certain duty cycles and certain vocations. “Growth in the global CV market will continue coming from nonTriad markets,” he added, “and in these markets mega-trucks will not be highly relevant or applicable.” Since this discussion was limited to industry stakeholders and not consumers, it should come as little surprise that the respondents’ views were positive towards longer, larger trucks. They all acknowledged, however, that the strings are pulled by the regulators. Dr. Michael Ruf, Continental: “The political decision makers will have the final say on this. From a technological point of view, mega-trucks are an option for certain long distance, overland haulage. Megatrucks might have increased requirements regarding safety systems to further improve the already high safety standard or only be allowed on certain roads.” “Fewer larger trucks would ensure environmental sustainability,” says WestEndCo’s Dixon. “Against this, however, we must place the fact that any debate surrounding this issue will be led by people with a lack of understanding of modern trucking. To many people, all trucks are bad, and thus bigger trucks will be worse, and no trucks would be good,” he adds. “We as engineers have to find ways to use the space more efficiently,” says automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Freight Efficiency Daimler’s Future Truck 2025 Daimler combined technology and design for its Future Truck 2025, the concept truck it launched in July 2014. The absence of headlamps (hidden) and mirrors (replaced by cameras) is most obvious, as is the changing colour of the LED lighting at the front of the streamlined cab to indicate whether the vehicle is in manual or autonomous drive mode; behind the cab, the trailer design is 18% more aerodynamic than existing solutions, equating to a saving of up to 4.5% in diesel fuel. Always on, always connected, the truck can operate in autonomous Highway Pilot at up to 85kph (53mph), during which the driver can rotate his chair 45 degrees and do things other than driving. Highway Pilot does this by combining camera, radar and Wi-Fi V2V and V2I technology with existing technologies like Proximity Control Assist, Stop-and-Go Assist, Active Brake Assist 3, Lane Keeping Assist, FleetBoard telematics and 3D maps for the Predictive Powertrain Control system. “We need national law makers to take action,” said Wolfgang Bernhard, head of Daimler Trucks, at the truck’s unveiling. “Other countries are ahead of Europe. States like Arizona, Michigan, California and Nevada have already put legislation in place. We need dialogue between policy makers and society to make these things happen. We need this discussion as soon and as open as possible.”

Torotrak’s Knichel. “Saving volume and weight in the technical package translates directly to increased payload. In a sector where operator margins are thin, a vehicle manufacturer with clever solutions will have a more competitive product.” Solutions will come through evolution, not revolution, says NACFE’s Roeth, adding, “I really see this being a continued discussion point.” Truck buyers – the fleets – could hold the balance of power When all is said and done, however, what happens in 2025 comes down to decisions made by the regulators and the fleet buyers. Legislation is slow and cumbersome; while fleets can make a decision from one day to the next, to which the OEMs and suppliers can quickly respond. We wrap up by asking, what will be the key megatrends shaping truck buyers’ decisions in 2025? Not surprisingly, the key themes to emerge are connectivity, safety, fuel economy, and driver health, wellness, and wellbeing. At the top of the list, though, is cost, summed up succinctly and eloquently by Torotrak’s Knichel: “The top three factors will be operating cost, followed by operating cost, and then operating cost.” automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Given the importance of efficiency to truck buyers, any solutions will ultimately need to pay off in order to be accepted by the industry, says Continental’s Ruf. “They need to save money or time and offer a reasonable return on investment. The buying decision will also be inﬂuenced by the legislative boundary conditions valid in the respective regions. Governments are especially keen on increasing vehicle safety and reducing the CO2 emissions. Vehicles which fulﬁl this could possibly be incentivised, which could motivate truck buyers.” Much of what shapes buyers’ decisions in 2025 comes down to who will be doing the buying, says Dixon. “By 2025, I suspect that the business will be comprised of three parts: equipment suppliers, equipment providers and equipment users, each possessed of unique core competencies. A truck OEM can leverage its supply chain and design and production capacity; an equipment supplier can leverage its ability to manage and control the equipment trading cycle; and the user can optimise its utilisation of that same equipment.” Furthermore, the chances of the truck user being the owner could also be numbered, he says. “Increasing vehicle complexity and a trading cycle that is all too easy to get on the wrong side of

suggests to me that with the exception of the largest transportation organisations, no one will want equipment as anything other than a line item.” Legislation moves notoriously slowly; technology moves notoriously quickly. And somewhere in between the two is the speed at which business models change. “A key megatrend developing is the complete shift in balance of power which will see not so much a change in the nature of the job - stuff will still get moved from A to B - but in the roles played in order to facilitate that,” concludes Dixon. “By 2025, I suspect that some of the big transport operations will be in a position to wield huge control over the transportation industry and the OEMs must now be wondering if they should look to the leasing companies as a potential customer or as a potential threat.” Self-driving vehicle technology is already here; the concepts that have been shown by leading OEMs, Tier 1 suppliers and ﬂeets have combined existing solutions with highly plausible next-generation technology. What’s clear, whether for trucking or for passenger cars, is that the next step creating the legislation - will deﬁne how long we have to wait until the truck of the future becomes the truck of today. Megatrends | 17

Freight Efficiency

The future of urban mobility: Opportunities within extended mobility ecosystems By François-Joseph Van Audenhove, Oleksii Korniichuk, Lucie Lammens All around the world, people are flocking to cities. This will be accompanied by massive growth in urban traffic, which is expected to triple by 2050. This article by experts at Arthur D. Little sheds some light on possible future business models of urban mobility that can drive necessary innovation across the ecosystem oth now and in the future, urban mobility poses a massive challenge, but also a great opportunity for business. Drawing on Arthur D. Little’s study, ‘The Future of Urban Mobility’, carried out together with UITP (the International Association of Public Transport), this article brieﬂy summarises some of the key trends, and focuses on the opportunities for businesses to beneﬁt as partners of extended urban mobility ecosystems.

The urban mobility challenge All around the globe, people are flocking to cities. In 2007, for the first time, UN population figures showed 18 | Megatrends

that more than half of the world’s population lived in urban areas. That proportion is set to rise to 60% by 2030 and 67% by 2050. This will be accompanied by massive growth in the number of individual journeys taken daily, leading to increasing demand for both passengers and goods mobility, which is expected to triple by 2050. (See Table 1.) At the same time, customers’ expectations for fast, reliable, convenient and individualised services have been increasing, as has been the mix of transport modes and services offered to them, a trend that is likely to continue. Similarly,

customers are increasingly concerned about the sustainability of their modes of travel, and some are prepared to avoid certain transport methods because of this. If the world fails to change its mobility habits, the future could be bleak: estimates suggest that by 2050, urban dwellers will spend, on average, twice as long in traffic jams as they do now, air and noise pollution will increase massively, urban mobility systems will use ﬁve times more of the planet’s bio capacities than they did in 1990, and overloaded transport infrastructures will present a major obstacle to economic growth. automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Freight Efficiency Thankfully, progress in improved public transport is already being made in many cities, but public financing limitations and system complexity remain challenges. Addressing this requires coordinated effort from many public and private transport stakeholders, and system innovation is the key. Technological advances such as digitalisation offer huge potential opportunities for specialised players, not only in the public transport supply chain, but also in areas such as automotive, financial services, telecoms, and other digital sectors. However, the complexity of setting up ecosystems poses a barrier to innovation: in particular, who pays and who benefits? In other words, what will the future business model(s) of urban mobility be that effectively drive innovation across the urban mobility ecosystem? Arthur D. Little’s Urban Mobility Index assessed the mobility maturity and performance of 84 cities worldwide, based on a set of 19 criteria. The mobility score per city ranges from 0 to 100 index points; the maximum of 100 points being defined by the best performance of any city in the sample for each criterion. (See Table 2.) The results are shown in Table 3 and find that most cities are badly equipped to cope with the mobility challenge ahead. It may be seen that although significant progress has been made in areas such as shared mobility, sharing of cars and bikes, penetration of mobility smart cards and development of integrated mobility platforms, the

Table 1

global average score is still only 43.9 points. This means that, on average, cities achieve less than half the potential that could be reached today when applying best practice across all operations. Even the city with the highest score, Hong Kong, with 58.2 out of 100, still has a signiﬁcant way to go. Barriers to progress A comprehensive review of technologies reveals sufficient availability of solutions to address mobility challenges. So, given the scale of the looming crisis, what’s stopping further progress from being made? The two main barriers to superior mobility performance relate to the inadequacy of urban mobility strategies and the fragmented structure of urban mobility systems.

Existing urban mobility strategies do not fulfill expected requirements. Many lack clear vision and strategy, mobility interlinks poorly with other urban strategies such as CO2 reduction, regional mobility systems have limited integration, and mobility strategies lack private sector engagement. Structure is too fragmented, not allowing for systemlevel innovation and collaboration, and can even be hostile to innovation and lack the agility to adapt to changing demands. Tomorrow’s superior mobility systems will require a network of interconnected mobility solutions with “one face to the customer”. In order to achieve this, public transport authorities and operators will need work closely with each other and set up ecosystems with other players in order to deliver innovative mobility solutions.

Table 2: Urban Mobility Index 2.0 assessment criteria

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Megatrends | 19

Freight Efficiency Table 3: Urban Mobility Index 2.0

Four dimensions for sustainable urban mobility systems Our research into good practices around the world’s cities shows four key dimensions that need to be addressed to put sustainable urban mobility systems in place: 1. Visionary strategy and ecosystem: City authorities need to develop a political vision and clear urban mobility objectives in order to inform strategic priorities and investments. Transport authorities also need to consult, engage and win support from other (public and private) mobility stakeholders to ensure broad backing from all parties involved. 2. Mobility supply (solutions and lifestyles): Cities need to further extend their mobility offerings, in Table 4: Strategic directions for cities

terms of both capacity and quality of services, and adapt from “delivering transport” to “delivering solutions”. 3. Mobility demand management: Mobility demand management is a delicate discipline that can easily meet strong resistance if not properly planned and executed. 4. Public transport ﬁnancing: Devising the right funding mix is critical, and securing adequate funding in the context of budgetary pressure means thinking outside of the box. A system-level approach across these four dimensions is critical: sustainable improvements to a city’s mobility performance requires simultaneous improvement of each of these four dimensions, since the weakest link will

influence overall mobility success. Due to the complex nature of the problems at hand, separate optimisation at sub-system level has limitations and will generally not impact overall urban mobility performance. System-level collaboration between multiple stakeholders of different types is often required, leading to numerous partners being involved in urban mobility ecosystems. As well as the usual groups, such as transport authorities, transport operators and infrastructure providers, other mobility providers and specialised players from other sectors can contribute to, and get benefits from, urban mobility ecosystems, as shown in Table 6. Ultimately, the success of any urban mobility strategy depends on how well ecosystems can be shaped to encourage innovative business models and integrated solutions. In an effective mobility ecosystem, all groups involved are clear on what their roles are and how value will be created. This implies mapping financial streams (e.g. sales revenues and concession fees) between the ecosystem’s core members, as well as assessing the value creation on environmental and social levels. Development of integrated mobility platforms for personal mobility typically requires negotiation of a complex web of relationships with a wide mix of public and private stakeholders, as illustrated in Table 7.

20 | Megatrends

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Freight Efficiency In this integrated ecosystem, a critical role is that of “integrated mobility platform operator”, responsible for planning, booking, payment and billing, thereby ensuring “one face to the traveller”. From a business point of view, integrating different transport modes while ensuring real-time interaction with the customer requires two things. Firstly, creation and operation of a platform that, via application programming interfaces, integrates the routing, booking and payment services of different mobility providers. And secondly, the operation of a smartphone app that enables endusers to access the platform and thus plan, book and buy their multimodal journey with a single click.

Table 6

Key success factors for setting up integrated mobility platforms include extended ecosystem stakeholder management, devising a proﬁtable business case, and technology integration. Table 5

Table 7: Illustration of parties involved in mobility ecosystems

Examples of integrated mobility platforms SMILE (Vienna) A multimodal mobility platform and application run by the City of Vienna. Vienna’s mobility integration approach involved a web of about 30 players, including mobility service providers (urban transport, rail, car, bike sharing, taxi and parking), connectivity providers, systems integrators and energy suppliers. SMILE stands for Smart Mobility Info and Ticketing System Leading the Way for Effective E-Mobility Services Goroo (Chicago) This multimodal journey planner in the Chicago Metropolitan Region was developed by the local transport authority in collaboration with the public transport operator, the traffic authority, the tourism bureau, the parking services provider, the regional transportation department and other stakeholders. Moovel (Daimler, Germany) Automotive OEM Daimler, which is active in the multimodal mobility business, developed its digital mobility assistant, “moovel”. Formerly known as Daimler Mobility Services, moovel is focused on its captive car-sharing service, car2go, as well as other third-party mobility services, such as taxis, public transport, bike sharing and carpooling.

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when cars talk Cars are rolling gold mines of information, gathering data about the driver, the driving environment and of course—the car itself—as well as any devices connected to it. Automotive companies can use this data to provide a safer driving experience, improve customer service and enhance vehicle quality. And the benefits associated with real-time analysis of data collected from vehicles extend beyond just the automotive industry. Insurance companies can more accurately assess risky driver behavior, enhance the claims process and identify fraudulent claims. Fleet operators can use vehicle data to improve the efficiency and safety of their operators, and retailers can improve the timeliness and accuracy of product promotions. With IBM Watson Foundations Big Data & Analytics technology, automakers can now analyze huge volumes of vehicle data at speeds that allow cars to “talk” to each other through the cloud. This vehicle-to-vehicle communication makes it possible for drivers to receive real-time alerts about nearby hazardous road conditions or looming equipment failures. Watson Foundations can also provide a more enriched driving experience through application or entertainment offerings customized just for them, and delivered through their vehicle’s infotainment system or a connected device. To learn more, visit ibm.com/software/data/bigdata/industry-auto.html

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Freight Efficiency

Fleet management system adoption gathers pace in Eastern Europe The adoption of fleet management systems (FMS) in Eastern Europe (EE) remains low - but it's gaining momentum, writes Indraneel Bardhan, Managing Partner at EOS Intelligence

uropean truckers, in general, have lagged in the adoption of fleet management technology, which has delivered significant cost benefits to their US counterparts. Within Europe, transport/logistics companies from the established economies have been quicker in realising the technology’s potential, evident from a greater adoption rate (up to 20% in case of Germany) as compared with those

based in the developing/emerging economies of Eastern Europe. Fleet Management System in Eastern Europe In recent years, there have been signs that Fleet Management System (FMS) adoption in Eastern Europe (EE) is about to gain momentum. According to Berg Insight, the current growth phase

of the FMS market in the CIS and EE countries is likely to achieve about 15.7% annual growth in the number of ﬂeet management systems during 2013-2018, to reach 5.9 million units. FMS is not new to Eastern Europe. The increasing presence of major logistics companies in the region, intra-Europe inland trade, and the spread of IT helped in introducing technological innovations to local trucking companies. However, perhaps due to the structural makeup of the trucking industry in the region, FMS adoption remains low. The domestic trucking market in EE countries is largely fragmented, with most players being small sized companies. The small size of these companies must make it even more compelling to invest in FMS (from cost-benefit perspective), as compared with large logistics companies that can absorb the cost of fleet management

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Freight Efficiency Perhaps driven by a renewed focus on operational efficiency and ampliﬁed by the economic slowdown, trucking companies in EE are looking at various cost reduction measures as well as trying to add value to their operations. FMS is clearly one of the more innovative solutions being looked at.

Back in 2008, EE-based trucking companies in Poland (Ryftrans, Transbud Katowice, and Wega-a), Czech Republic (Helicar and Zdar), Slovenia (Ploj), Lithuania (Amber Cargo), Hungary (Fazekas Insped), and Romania (Kefalonia) were already looking for FMS implementation

Given the circumstances, it would be interesting to see how the FMS market landscape evolves in terms of the practices adopted by fleet owners in EE. What best practices will be carried over, taking cue from successful companies in Europe (including those which have already adopted the technology in EE)? Will it be aimed only at cost reduction, or will fleet owners try to add value to their operations? What FMS systems are available to EE truckers? From the point of view of FMS systems, EE truckers have access to OEM supplied systems and those available in the aftermarket. Manufacturers, such as Scania (Communicator system), Mercedes-Benz (FleetBoard), Volvo (Dynafleet), and MAN (TeleMatics) are already offering factory-fitted truck models.

In 2013, Transics equipped 120 Duhabex (a Polish transport firms) trucks with its on-board system for efficient fleet management

Examples of C.S. Cargo and Duhabex are not sufficient to make definitive predictions; however, they give a sense of the direction towards which the FMS market in EE is likely to head. While C.S. Cargo’s acquisition was a result of the requirements for servicing a particular client (which warranted purchase of a specific type of heavy commercial vehicles), Dunabex’s decision reflects the general trend among EE truckers to acquire FMS for their existing fleet. This general trend followed by companies such as Dunabex is driven by the hope of improvement in the economic situation in the region, which is likely to drive an expansion of trucking fleets, with possible inclusion of vehicles having FMS installed as a standard feature. Others may prefer to enhance the operational efficiency of the existing fleet with aftermarket FMS solutions. Within the aftermarket FMS offerings, subscription-based services are more popular than stand-alone solutions due to their low cost of ownership. EE trucking companies, especially the smaller ones, have a chance to jump the learning curve, as FMS-related services are now transitioning to mobile web-enabled platforms.

Role of trade and road infrastructure in FMS adoption Over the years, FMS technology has evolved from a basic GPS-based tracking service to preventive maintenance, ﬂeet planning, order management, training, etc. The state of road infrastructure of a country can inﬂuence the decision of domestic transporters not only regarding FMS adoption but also with respect to the prioritisation of its functional requirements. For instance, while the route-optimisation function may not be optimally-used due to lack of road network, preventive-maintenance function may prove to be useful in a country with bad road quality. The Global Competitiveness Report (2013-2014) clearly states that the quality of roads in most EE countries is not up to global average standards. Countries such as Romania (2.1) scored well below the global mean of 4. EE countries also lag behind their western counterparts in terms of road (motorway) density. While the Netherlands and Germany boast of about 7 km and 3.5 km roads per 100 sq. km respectively, Poland (0.2 km) and Romania (0.2 km) are far behind in comparison. However, the situation is

Fleet Managers have shown inclination to switch to mobile FMS, though its advantages over hardware-based solutions are yet to be established. TomTom is already offering a smartphone-based application that is available on iOS and Android platforms

Czech Republic-based C.S.Cargo procured 20 Volvo vehicles in 2013, fitted with Dynafleet software designed to monitor the cost efficiency of operations. The purchase followed C.S. Group’s successful three-year transport contract with a beer producer, which required trucks with load-carrying capacity of 31 tons and a cargo area capable of transporting 38 Europallets

Several aftermarket FMS suppliers are operating in the European market, including Masternaut, TomTom Business Solutions, Digicore, Trimble, and Transics. The French telecom company Orange also offers SIMenabled ﬂeet management solutions available through its network. 24 | Megatrends

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Freight Efficiency transporters means trucks operating in international boundaries, which in turn poses greater challenges with respect to ﬂeet management. Proportionally higher international trade in the case of any country may not necessarily mean greater utilisation, which is dependent on the commercial vehicle parc size and the absolute trade volumes for the trucking companies operating from there. For instance, due to a lesser ratio of trade volumes to truck parc, Romanian trucks are more likely to remain underutilised, as compared with their Polish and Czech counterparts. This limits the utility of FMS for them. A ﬁnal word

According to a study conducted on the structure of the road haulage sector in the EU by AECOM (2013), ‘Other Costs’, which includes repair and maintenance charges, were 42% and 35% for Poland and Hungary respectively, as compared with 17% for Germany

improving, with governments investing in road infrastructure. Poland and the Czech Republic lead with an average (2009-2011) spend of €2m (US$2.5m) per 100 sq. km.

per hour worked), and sustained investment on roads can help in bridging this gap. The haulage pattern of a country can also inﬂuence FMS adoption within EE. Except for Poland and Romania, other countries’ international trade is more than double the domestic trade. More than 60% of the overall international road haulage by EE countries is under bilateral trade, followed by cross trade (e.g. a truck registered in Poland transporting good between France and Germany) at about 20-35%. The large volume of international trade by road

There seems to be a perceptible requirement for FMS solutions in Eastern European countries, depending on various domestic variables, such as trade volumes and infrastructure. It is a matter of how different FMS products are positioned in each of these countries. Poland represents an attractive case for FMS on account of its already established FMS market and better scope (vehicle parc and trade volumes). Frost and Sullivan research also found it among the countries with relatively higher FMS penetration (about 9% as of 2010). Constrained by poor domestic infrastructure, truckers from countries such as Romania (almost equal domestic and international haulage volumes) may look for other avenues to improve productivity.

The ﬁgure above shows the vast difference in the quality and density of road infrastructure between Germany and EE countries. Backed by good road infrastructure, FMS could be a tool to add value to the German trucking companies’ operations; however, for EE truckers, the absence of good road infrastructure can be a motivation to improve productivity levels through FMS. According to a report published by McKinsey in 2013, Central and Eastern European truckers’ productivity (8 km per hour worked) was way behind the EU levels (13 km Smaller countries (Czech Republic, Hungary etc.) may have geographical limitations to expansion of their road networks; however, there is a clear case for overhauling the road infrastructure in relatively large countries, such as Romania

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Megatrends | 25

Freight Efficiency

‘Clean cold’ transport technologies come in from the cold There’s an urgent need to develop sustainable transport refrigeration systems to replace the highly polluting diesel-powered TRUs that dominate the industry today, writes Professor Toby Peters, Visiting Professor in Power and Cold Economy, Birmingham Energy Institute

hen the history is written, it is likely the 2014 SMMT Automotive Innovation Awards will be acknowledged as a tipping point. For the ﬁrst time, the prestigious competition recognised the urgent need to develop sustainable transport refrigeration systems to replace the highly polluting diesel-powered Transport Refrigeration Units (TRUs) that dominate the industry today. Two of the six shortlisted companies are developing innovative cooling

26 | Megatrends

refrigeration technologies to reduce greenhouse emissions and local air pollution, and one, the Dearman Engine Company, was ‘highly commended’. With investment in cold logistics booming around the world, it is a timely recognition of the inevitable damage to the environment and human health if the exponential growth in diesel powered transport refrigeration goes unchecked, and of the arrival of a potentially $£multi-billion market in ‘clean cold’ technologies.

The diesel powered TRU is one of the trucking industry’s biggest challenges. While truck propulsion engines are tightly regulated in the EU and increasingly clean, the secondary ‘donkey engines’ used to power TRUs on many trucks and all articulated trailers are effectively unregulated and emit grossly disproportionate amounts of toxic air pollution. Over the course of a year, a modern trailer TRU emits six times as much nitrogen dioxide (NOx) and 29 times as much particulate automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Freight Efficiency matter (PM) as the Euro VI propulsion engine pulling it around. This kind of pollution is estimated to cause 29,000 premature deaths in Britain each year, and over 400,000 across the EU, according to the European Environment Agency. Refrigeration also accounts for around 20% of a truck’s diesel consumption and CO2 emissions. On current trends, the environmental and health impact of diesel TRUs looks set to become dramatically worse. Online food shopping is growing fast, with the UK market alone set to double in value over the next five years to £13bn (US$20.5bn) according to market researchers IGD. If the additional refrigerated vehicles needed to deliver all this food are not made more eco-friendly, the impacts in urban areas could be serious. In the developing world, cold chains are growing even more rapidly to service the changing lifestyles and diets of the rapidly expanding middle classes – expected to swell by 3 billion by 2030. Some analyses suggest this means the global refrigerated truck fleet will more than double to 9 million in the next two decades, but others put the figure at almost twice as much again. Either way, in the short term India thinks it needs to invest US$15bn in cold chains over the next five years to keep up with demand. Booming investment in conventional TRUs can only worsen the appalling smog already afflicting Indian cities, which caused 600,000 premature deaths in 2010 alone. Air pollution is rising rapidly up the political agenda, not least in Europe, where the European Commission has started enforcement action against the UK for persistently breaking legal limits on emissions of nitrogen dioxide, which could eventually result in fines of €300m (US$375m) per year. A separate ruling by the European Court of Justice in November 2014 also obliges the UK Government to clean up Britain’s air pollution, and applies equally to other EU member states. The issue goes back to the UK Supreme Court next year and the UK Government will then be forced to act more quickly.

Liquid air energy system schematic

Dearman – is a signiﬁcant advance on existing technologies since it exploits the phase change expansion of the cryogenic gas to produce both cooling and shaft power. First the cryogen is vaporised in a heat exchanger in the refrigeration compartment, so cooling the cargo down; then the high pressure gas is used to drive the Dearman engine, whose shaft power can be used to drive a conventional refrigeration compressor or for auxiliary power. Existing cryogenic cooling systems such as natureFridge and Frostcruise exploit only the cooling from evaporation. Since it is largely based on standard piston engine architecture, the Dearman refrigeration unit would cost little more than a conventional diesel TRU, and would repay its investment in under three months.

Luckily, there are innovative, zeroemission and cost competitive technologies ready to solve the problem.

Because diesel TRUs are so polluting, the impact of even a modest fleet of Dearman units could be huge. A recent report found that a projected fleet of just 13,000 Dearman liquid air refrigerated trailers (about 15% of the total refrigerated vehicle fleet) would reduce NOx emissions by the same amount as taking 80,000 Euro VI trucks or 1.2 million Euro VI diesel cars off the road. It would be the PM equivalent of removing 367,000 such trucks from service – more than three times the entire UK articulated truck fleet today – or 2.2 million Euro VI diesel cars.

The liquid air refrigeration unit currently being developed by the Dearman Engine Company – based on the novel piston engine invented by Peter

Liquid air is not yet produced commercially, but liquid nitrogen, which can be used in exactly the same way, is widely available throughout the

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industrialised world. In fact many countries have large amounts of spare liquid nitrogen production capacity because oxygen and nitrogen are separated by a process of refrigeration, and there is four times as much nitrogen in the air as oxygen. Britain, for example, has 2,200 tonnes of spare daily production capacity, enough to cool almost 9,500 refrigerated trailers, well over half the number of reefers operating on British roads in 2013. Liquid nitrogen is delivered to industrial users daily by road tanker, so the distribution system already exists, and can be supplied for as little as 4.5 pence per litre. Liquid nitrogen or air could be supplied even more cheaply if we recycled the vast amounts of cold wasted during the regasification of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) at import terminals, which would reduce the electricity required to produce liquid air – and its carbon intensity – by two thirds. We estimate the waste cold from the projected global LNG trade in 2030 of 500 million tonnes could produce enough liquid air to cool more than 4 million refrigerated trucks – more than today’s entire global fleet! But liquid air technologies are not just for the developed world; if anything, they will be even more important in the developing world, particularly in rapidly industrialising giants such as India and China, where the cold chains are growing fast but are far from fully established. These countries also have significant spare liquid nitrogen capacity and sharply rising LNG imports to support a new ‘Cold Megatrends | 27

Freight Efficiency Economy’. Here liquid air transport refrigeration would not only reduce local air pollution and cost, but also postharvest food losses of as high as 50%. One study has shown that if developing countries had the same level of cold chain as developed countries, they could save 200 million tonnes of perishable food annually, increasing the food supply by about 15%. This in turn would save huge amounts of water, labour and land which would otherwise be used to produce food that is never eaten; the water used to produce wasted food each year is estimated at 250km3, for example, or three times the volume of Lake Geneva. Thus, the SMMT Awards mark not only the beginning of the end for the diesel TRU, but also the birth of a new global market in ‘clean cold’ technologies worth many billions of pounds. And it is a market in which Britain has a natural lead, with its enviable position in engine manufacturing and exports (2.6 million units built in 2013), and a hub of clean cold research and expertise centred in the Midlands. The Dearman Engine Company is working with a number of partners including Hubbard to bring the technology to market. Following the start of on-vehicle testing with MIRA (formerly the Motor Industry Research Association) in 2014, commercial trials begin in 2015 and low volume manufacture in 2016. The Dearman engine is likely to break the orthodoxy that new technologies must be more expensive than established ones; based largely on standard piston engine architecture, it will be cheap to build, simple to maintain and contains no exotic materials. With local air pollution regulations set to become much stiffer in many jurisdictions, it will be an extremely cost effective way for logistics operators to eliminate NOx, PM and F-gas emissions from their refrigerated vehicles and achieve progressively larger reductions in CO2. The manufacturing capacity to produce the Dearman engine already exists in the UK, and a recent report found that by 2025, Britain could be making 173,000 engines a year, generating net revenues of £713m and creating or maintaining more than 2,100 jobs. Clean cold technologies are not just coming in from the cold – they look set to create one of the hottest global markets of the 21st century. Disclosure Statement: Toby Peters is the Founder and Senior Group Managing Director of Dearman Engine Company, a privately-owned developer of liquid air engines for transport and the built environment. He also founded and is a shareholder in Highview Power Storage which is developing Liquid Air Energy Storage for grid-based applications

28 | Megatrends

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Freight Efficiency

New electric bus puts Volvo in the zone Volvo's new hybrid bus has a heavy focus on energy management By Michael Nash

t was not so long ago that Volvo started production of the B5LH, a hybrid bus that has a battery installed in the roof, feeding power to an electric motor that runs alongside a diesel engine. The electric motor merely complemented the engine, without bearing the brunt of the work. Volvo is now developing a number of technologies that will be incorporated into another hybrid, the 7900 Electric Hybrid, as well as used in the future pure electric bus that will begin operation in June 2015.

Zoning in on the problem One of the primary differences in the new pure electric bus that Volvo is developing is that it is much more reliant on the electric motor than its hybrid predecessors. With a further three on board, the new bus has a total of four batteries installed in the roof, each weighing in at approximately 350kg. Although this adds weight to the bus, it is more than made up for by not having an internal combustion engine (ICE) on board. With the extra batteries on board, the bus is able to run in pure electric mode

30 | Megatrends

for approximately 8 kilometres. This brings us to Volvo’s new zone management system. Before starting a route, the driver uses a small interface to assign the bus to one of a selection of routes pre-inputted into the interface. Using GPS, the system notiﬁes the driver as he enters certain sensitive areas. What is more, the system intuitively interacts with the powertrain, and can particularly inﬂuential in the electric hybrid bus. On entering a ‘zero emissions zone’, the bus automatically turns the diesel engine off and

continues to run only on electric power. Alternatively, when there is a signiﬁcant incline for the bus to climb on the route, the pre-set zone management system ensures the diesel engine boosts the electric motor, allowing it to climb the gradient. The system can also calculate the distance left in the route and cross reference it to the energy in the battery. If there is enough energy in the battery left for the rest of the journey, the bus will run solely on the electric motor before reaching the charging station.

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Freight Efficiency

A version of this article ﬁrst appeared on AutomotiveWorld.com

The bus also recognises ‘safety zones’; if a school is nearby, the bus will inform the driver to decrease his speed, or it can be automatically set to slow down at these safety zones. Finally, cities and urban areas where high numbers of residents live may be assigned to the system as ‘silent zones’, and the bus can switch again automatically to using the electric motor only. These various zones can overlap, they can easily be altered and can also be valid for either an entire ﬂeet of buses or merely a select few. At the heart of the zone management system is Volvo’s aim to be as energy efficient as possible. With the zone management system, and the ability to turn off the diesel engine to run exclusively on electric power, Volvo hopes the vehicle’s contribution to poor air quality conditions will be minimal. The goal Jessica Sandström, Senior Vice President and head of the Volvo Bus City Mobility Team gave Megatrends an insight into the company’s ambitious aims. With the help of parent company Volvo Group, Sandström believes that Volvo Bus has an advantage over its

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

competitors, both in terms of ﬁnance and support. She expresses the importance of communication between Volvo Bus and Volvo Group, and how it has been made very easy. Consequently, projects and developments like the new pure electric bus have been encouraged

and aided by the parent company. “We could not have done this without the Volvo Group,” states Sandström. “We share the same goals, and that is to achieve sustainable transport.” Sandström also hinted at broadening the scope of the Volvo Bus technology. “We have been able to do things earlier, and so we are now spearheading the market. And when it comes to switching the truck segment over to electric, we will have a quick solution to do so.” She believes that the next big step will be to implement in trucks the same technology found in Volvo’s new electric bus, especially trucks that regularly drive in and out of megacities. “If we can change the pollution in big cities, then people will be healthier. We can really make a difference. We are on a mission.”

Megatrends | 31

Freight Efficiency

Long-term funding needed to improve crumbling US infrastructure Ian C. Graig of Global Policy Group considers the impact of public policy on long-term freight efficiency in the United States he US freight industry is becoming more efficient, with vehicle and component ﬁrms, trucking ﬂeets, logistics companies, shippers, and others in the private sector driving the change. Public policy is clearly also playing a role in the quest for greater freight efficiency – though that role has not always been either a clear or positive one.

The Obama Administration has taken a series of steps aimed in part at increasing the efficiency of the commercial trucks that move goods across the US. Most notably, the Administration has enacted federal standards requiring cuts in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. These standards affect virtually all Class 2b-Class 8 commercial vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating above 8,500 lbs., including heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans, vocational vehicles, and Class 732 | Megatrends

Class 8 combination tractors. The rules started to take effect in model year (MY) 2014 and will be fully effective in MY 2017. These standards, building on more stringent federal limits on heavy-duty vehicles’ and engines’ emissions of “criteria” pollutants, are helping to encourage developments in emissions-control technology, weight reduction, and aerodynamics that are increasing US freight efficiency. Federal regulators are now working on a new set of heavy vehicle fuel consumption and GHG emissions standards that would take effect starting in MY 2018. They expect to publish a proposal in the spring of 2015. Continuing a cooperative approach that has recently characterised the writing of vehicle emissions standards, federal regulators are now meeting with stakeholders - including vehicle and engine producers, trucking and

environmental groups, among others to discuss the forthcoming regulatory proposal. Those standards, which are expected to pose a significantly greater compliance challenge than the MY 2014-17 rules, may include standards for trailers as well. In addition to regulating fuel consumption and emissions, the federal government is involved in several other programs aimed at boosting freight efficiency. The longrunning SmartWay program, for example, certifies fuel-efficient trucks and trailers for use in freight transport. SmartWay, a voluntary collaborative program of the Environmental Protection Agency, helps encourage trucking fleets to use those fuel-efficient trucks and trailers and freight shippers to use such fuel-efficient fleets. Similarly, the Energy Department’s National Clean Fleets Partnership works with some of the nation’s large private trucking fleets to cut fuel use. automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Freight Efficiency

Get smart Cooperative development and testing of advanced transportation technologies is another route through which public policy is encouraging improvements in freight efficiency. For example, the heavy vehicle industry and the federal government cooperate on developing and testing advanced

vehicle technologies through the 21st Century Truck Partnership. This collaborative R&D effort, involving four federal agencies and more than a dozen heavy-duty vehicle producers and suppliers, is focused on developing the technologies needed to improve the efficiency of heavy commercial vehicles.

The commercial freight industry may also benefit from research supported by the Department of Transportation into advanced vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologies. The Obama Administration has been supportive of efforts by passenger and commercial vehicle producers and IT companies to develop such technologies, which could potentially reduce fuel consumption significantly by easing congestion, allowing ‘smart’ routing of trips, or enabling the virtual platooning of long-haul tractor-trailers. While private firms are behind developments in this area, public policy is playing an important role on such issues as liability, wireless spectrum, data security, and infrastructure. The increased use of natural gas also offers commercial vehicle operators an opportunity to reduce their vehicles’ emissions while cutting their fuel costs. The revolution in US natural gas production has led to a dramatic increase in the use of natural gas to fuel transit buses, refuse trucks, and certain short-haul or regional trucks – though natural gas use by long-haul trucking fleets has grown far more

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Megatrends | 33

Freight Efficiency

slowly. Public policy has played a limited role in the natural gas vehicle (NGV) market, largely through procurement by public transit ﬁrms and government agencies. But private companies have turned to NGVs in local or regional trucking largely due to the comparatively low price of natural gas – though the recent decline in diesel prices has narrowed the fuelcost advantage of natural gas. The federal government could restore lapsed tax incentives for the purchase of NGVs or investment in natural gas fuelling infrastructure, but support for such incentives is relatively weak in Congress. The recent US midterm elections may in fact limit the role that Washington plays in providing incentives to advance freight efficiency. With Republicans capturing control of the Senate and retaining control of the House in November’s elections, there is little prospect for increased federal support for alternative fuels or advanced vehicle technologies – though existing vehicle technologies programs may have enough bipartisan support to survive without major funding cuts. Working on the highway The best way for Washington to help increase freight efficiency would be to improve the nation’s often-crumbling transportation infrastructure. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) has given the US highway system a barely passing grade of “D,” 34 | Megatrends

noting that congested highways cost an estimated US$101bn in wasted time and fuel annually. The Federal Highway Administration estimates that US$170bn in capital investment would be needed annually to make a signiﬁcant improvement in the conditions of US highways. ASCE gives the nation’s system of bridges a grade of C+, noting that one of every nine bridges in the US is structurally deﬁcient. Despite the obvious need, about which there is unusual bipartisan consensus, Congress has been unable to pass a long-term authorisation of federal surface transportation programs since 2005. Congress enacted nine short-term extensions after that five-year authorisation expired in 2009, making it difficult for states and localities to undertake the long-term planning required for major infrastructure projects, before enacting a two-year extension in 2012. When that was about to expire in October 2014, Congress again enacted another short-term authorisation that also kept the troubled Highway Trust Fund (HTF) from running out of money until May 2015. The federal government uses the HTF, which is funded through revenues from federal gasoline and diesel taxes, to help states pay for highway projects. The HTF has been in a state of perpetual crisis for some time, as drivers are using less fuel and federal fuel taxes, which are not indexed for inflation, have not been increased in decades.

In April, the Obama Administration proposed a US$302bn plan to reauthorise federal surface transportation programs for four years, with a big increase in spending on transit and intelligent transportation system programs and proposals to reform infrastructure ﬁnancing and permitting procedures. The House and Senate considered their own long-term funding bills as well, but failed to act on the matter. As a result, the Republican-controlled Congress will need to take up the issue of highway, transit, and rail funding early in 2015. Lawmakers will also need to explore ways to ensure the long-term solvency of the HTF, either by raising federal fuel taxes, reforming those taxes (by shifting to a miles-travelled tax, for example), or completely changing the system for ﬁnancing highway projects. Conservative Republicans, for example, want to “devolve” the system almost entirely back to the state level. National trucking and transportation groups are wary, noting that it could create an inefficient patchwork of state-level approaches to highway funding. If the Obama Administration and the incoming Republican-controlled 114th Congress truly want to increase freight efficiency, they should agree on a longterm funding solution to improve the crumbling US surface transportation infrastructure. Such a step, combined with ongoing advances in vehicles, engines, and advanced communications technologies, would go a long way toward making the US freight system far more efficient. automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

At Visteon, we’re not just telling automakers our view of mobility in the year 2020 we’re showing them. The same foresight that has made the e-Bee a hit with automakers around the world is driving Visteon innovations in vehicle climate control and cockpit electronics. Our eco-friendly climate control and thermal management products help keep passengers comfortable and engines cool - and manage temperatures for batteries and power electronics on hybrid electric vehicles. And we’re becoming a go-to partner for automakers seeking to bring consumer electronics approaches into vehicles quickly, efficiently, and reliably. We’re bringing the future into focus - and improving the driving experience.

Connected Car

Car as a service: a trend supported by IoT The connected car could see the automotive industry change more in the next ten to 15 years than it has in a long time, says Richard Cornish, Head of Internet of Things at Xchanging he ‘connected car’ offers up such tantalising opportunities for the smart use of driving data that we can expect to see the automotive industry change more in the next ten to 15 years than it has in a long time.

It’s not just about in-car features – although clearly a land of opportunity exists right there with the likes of automated parking and now the early beginnings of the driverless car. It’s also about a business model for car manufacturers that caters to the needs of the new driving generation. Driving can be an expensive business. Today’s teenagers and twentysomethings, with a high cost of living, are not automatically going to go down the buy or lease route that the previous generation is used to. While their ﬁnite funds are spread thinly across their outgoings, what they are used to is a concept of ‘use as needed,’ as opposed to buy. The nicknamed ‘Boris bikes’ in London are a case in point: for London workers and regular visitors the self-

36 | Megatrends

service, bike-sharing scheme is a well-understood, popular way of getting around town. Business model It is a model that can translate to motoring - and indeed it has: Zipcar operates a membership scheme that gives its customers access to cars and vans that they can use by the hour or the day. Car hire companies and other car sharing schemes are similarly in on the act. Now the opportunity is there for car manufacturers. In addition to continuing to produce cars to be bought and leased as high-value

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Connected Car commodities, they can foster the ‘car as a service’ model with ‘micro lease’ car options. It is a business model made more effective by the connected car. As car manufacturers build cars that exploit the Internet of Things (IoT) sending and

driving was. The latter measure could be used to calculate future discounts as a reward for safe driving, as could usage to calculate loyalty points. For customer convenience and comfort, their phone could also record and carry the data needed to set the seating and mirrors so they are just right for that individual each time they get into their on-loan car. Driving data Driving data is, of course, of signiﬁcant value to insurers and also to car manufacturers in developing cars that are safe and fuel efficient in the context of today’s modern driving conditions and styles.

receiving information from networked features and devices within the car and connecting it to other devices and network services - they can support a change in the whole trend of car ownership. A modernday car sharing with sophisticated analytics. Driving produces vast quantities of data. At the moment it isn’t all captured or used to deliver full advantage for consumers or manufacturers. Future drivers could use their smartphone to not only give them access to their temporary car but also record the distance they have driven, the fuel usage, the time they had the car on hire and, with the right automated analysis of data inputs, how safe their automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

lifetime. This is reliable driving history from source data that doesn’t depend on owners or users maintaining service history. We know the IoT is having an impact on the way we use cars. ‘Driverless’ vehicles are headline-grabbers, without a doubt. Over time, we can expect to see the data the connected car generates being put to good use supporting business models for car usage that beneﬁt both manufacturers and consumers.

This model for car usage can suit not only those conscious of the outlay associated with car ownership or leasing but also those who want or need a different type of car at different times to suit their lifestyle, such as an offroader at the weekend or a particular car to impress a client, for example. Meanwhile, to the stalwart car owner or leaser of the future, the IoT also has something to offer. Data gathered on how a driver’s car has been used can count towards evidence of car history, which in turn can help a car hold some of its value. As that car changes hands, it continues to ‘learn’, enabling data to be tracked back over its Megatrends | 37

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Connected Car

Self-driving cars are already here. Somebody tell the regulators! Martin Kahl talks to Volvo Cars, Delphi and Thatcham about the challenges of bringing self-driving cars to market

hey’re here. They’ve been here for some time, blending in and appearing quite ordinary – and most people don’t even know they’re here. Now, though, they’re making headlines, and the call to make sure they have a legally enshrined place in society is growing ever louder.

To industry insiders, the self-driving car has been with us for years – technically, at least. Much of the technology already exists; appropriately equipped cars have been shown to media on test tracks and private roads; and in certain US states, and in parts of Europe and in Japan, prototypes and test mules are allowed on the roads and research programmes are well under way.

car’s transition from technological possibility to legal reality. Megatrends put to the three the provocative notion that, if the technology is already there, it’s only policy holding things back. The horse has already bolted, leaving regulators struggling to come to terms with the inevitability of seeing autonomous cars on our roads in the near future.

“You’re right that we have a technology issue and a policy issue,” begins Anders Eugensson, Director Governmental Affairs at Volvo Car, “but we have to consider other road users, and how they will react.” There will soon be a mix of types of cars on the road, he points out. “How is this going to affect drivers of normal cars? Is this going to affect what you do? And how will they react? How will the police react?”

At a recent autonomous cars event, hosted by safety, security and crash repair specialist Thatcham Research at its facility in Berkshire, UK, Megatrends took the opportunity to invite representatives from Volvo Cars, Delphi and Thatcham to sit around a coffee table and debate the self-driving automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Megatrends | 39

Connected Car Freedom of the city As well as technological and legislative hurdles, there is the need to address the mindset of existing road users. Indeed, how will autonomous cars be marketed? Much is about perception and terminology; ask people if they have a connected car, and they may say no, even if their car does have Bluetooth and other connected vehicle technologies. In the same way, OEMs – and the industry in general – need to present autonomous driving in a way that is attractive to consumers. There will be, we can safely assume, a number of consumers who think they would never want a driverless car, while demanding all of the features that in reality add up to a semi-autonomous or self-driving car. And here we reach a key point of deﬁnition – the difference between a self-driving car and a driverless car. A self-driving car can also – and may need to – be driven by a driver; a driverless car can drive from A to B without the need for human intervention. “The self-driving car gives you an option to drive yourself,” says Delphi’s Clasen. “So as long as there is an option for customers and people can decide if they want to drive themselves, I don’t think they will have a problem with it. The problem comes when the car just is not able to be driven. You just step in and it takes you from A to B. Then I think a lot of people would say it is not what they want.” Eugensson believes the notion of selfdriving cars using the same lanes as all other vehicles is a critical issue that needs to be examined and understood before launch. Henrik Clasen is Technical Manager Safety Systems at Delphi. He believes there could be dedicated autonomous car lanes, but accepts that much needs to be addressed before such lanes are in place. “Who would pay for those investments, and what will the business case look like? Is the road user ready to pay extra to use an automated car, and how should that business be set up?” The driverless car could see people using their time very differently inside the vehicle, and that would also involve them sitting very differently inside the vehicle. This has an impact not only on the design of a car’s interior as we know it, but also how well occupants are secured in the event of an impact. If people are sitting differently, and not 40 | Megatrends

strapped in according to guidelines we currently know and accept, how will this affect existing thinking on car safety? “We’ve not tested that yet,” says Peter Shaw, Chief Executive of Thatcham Research. “We try to inﬂuence design, but that’s not our job. At Thatcham, our role is to test the systems that the manufacturers bring to market, and in the broadest sense, not just in the event of an accident but also across normal driving situations. We need to understand all the implications of the technologies that are coming to market. And they are converging technologies. It’s not just about driverless cars, it’s about the connected vehicle as well. From a legislation viewpoint, it’s almost impossible to keep up with all of those technologies converging in a very short space of time. It’s going to be a great challenge for insurers, for governments and legislators to keep up with the speed of the technology.”

“It depends if the consumer sees that as a car or some other means of transport,” interjects Eugensson. “I think amusement parks will be the ﬁrst place where you will ﬁnd those completely driverless vehicles. And then the customer will see that as completely different from driving a car.” Clasen agrees. “Individual mobility is still important. If you can’t drive yourself, can you at least decide where the car wants to go?” he asks. An important aspect of personal freedom is the ability to get in a car and drive wherever you want to go, and that remains the mind-set and culture that’s predominant in most countries, says Shaw. “People don’t want to be restricted to a totally autonomous vehicle, because that’s just like getting a taxi or a train. It almost becomes public transport. What they want is personal freedom.” However, Clasen points out that unlike public transport, automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Connected Car

a driverless car could take you from your front door to exactly where you want to go without needing to change to some other means of transportation. Discussion around driverless cars assumes a car in the traditional sense, built by a traditional vehicle manufacturer; such an assumption overlooks the possibility of a tech company launching a self-driving car, like Google’s self-driving prototype, and it perhaps not even being a car, but a self-driving quadricycle, for example. This adds a new dimension to safety, which then adds in a whole new set of challenges in terms of testing. “Quadricycles, motorcycles and other vehicles are a very different insurance proposition to a car, because they don’t have the passenger safety features and protection that the sound structure of a vehicle now gives you,” says Shaw. “From our point of view, it would be a whole different ball game if that were the case. But what I think we are going to see is low speed controlled testing and development, and that will prove out the attractiveness of those different solutions. All of that big picture testing is a good thing, but for me the true value of autonomous vehicles over the next ten to 15 years will be guided by driver intervention for safety reasons. By that I mean technologies like autonomous emergency braking, autonomous emergency steering, and things that take over when the driver has been distracted or has not realised that they are facing danger. And that, in automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

any normal planning horizon, is where the value is, I believe.” Clasen believes that driverless vehicles will be offered as an alternative for individual mobility. “It will be connected to the discussion about redeﬁning the vehicle in society. Today’s society is planned around the vehicle and, in the future, you will try to change that, with society planned around people. That will be a low speed device, 10-15kph maybe from A to B within a city centre for example, used as an alternative to public transport.” Game changer Ten years ago there was no iPhone, and many cameras still used ﬁlm. In terms of consumer electronics, much has changed over the last decade. Hardware has reached a certain point, and an increasing level of technological

development now lies in the software. The industry is working to broadly accepted targets set out in common roadmaps that suggest likely levels of technology by certain dates. Is there a chance that the industry has failed to anticipate just how much things might change in the next decade? Eugensson believes there is. “We can predict the future by shaping it. We’re not going to have all the answers, but we're part of the development for the future. What we do now is going to affect the future. The knowledge we are going to gain on the path towards the future has to reshape it, of course. But I think it’s likely that it will go quicker rather than slow down.” Self-driving car technology will be a game changer, believes Clasen. “Some OEMs will adapt quickly, be ﬂexible and be able to provide these kinds of Megatrends | 41

Connected Car

features at an affordable cost. Some of them will put a lot of money into the vehicles, which will not be affordable. And the third category will not jump on the train because the automotive industry is so slow-moving and conservative. And then a fourth group will move in, organisations like Google, which will go with slow, low-speed driverless vehicles.” Eugensson (representing the OEMs) counters this suggestion by Clasen (speaking as a supplier) that the OEMs are slow-moving. “I think we’re fastmoving, and I think the market pressure will require us to move even faster.” Pick a level According to the classiﬁcation system deﬁned in 2013 by the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

(NHTSA), there are ﬁve levels of autonomous drive technology: Level 0, where the driver completely controls the vehicle at all times; Level 1, which sees individual vehicle controls automated, such as electronic stability control or automatic braking; Level 2, at which point at least two controls can be automated in unison, such as adaptive cruise control in combination with lane keeping; Level 3, where the driver can fully cede control of all safety-critical functions in certain conditions, but requires the driver to retake control where necessary; and Level 4, in which the driver is not expected to control the vehicle at any time. “There’s a difference in approach now,” says Eugensson, “with Google saying it’s probably not going to go with level 3, it’s going to go for driverless vehicles. Google has taken away the driver

interface completely. But Toyota on the other hand says it doesn’t believe even in level 3. And we [Volvo] and Mercedes are on the middle track, where we think level 3 needs to come before level 4. So I agree in that respect - there is already division.” Thatcham’s Shaw agrees that new players are certain to enter the market. “Car manufacturers are waking up to the fact that the competitors of the future are going to be companies like Google, Microsoft and Apple, not just the traditional vehicle manufacturers, particularly as we head towards the electric vehicle becoming far more plausible and usable,” he says. “And I think that’s already the case, not just in automation but even in connectivity – it is already a battleground to decide who will dominate the in-vehicle connectivity. That’s what I think the drivers of the future, the young people are seeking. They’re seeking that extension of their personal device.” So, has the horse bolted? It’s certainly running, and needs restraining, but it might not be too late to catch it. National, regional and municipal governments are commissioning serious trials; the industry knowledge to make this work exists; the technology is in place; the lawyers are ready and waiting; and the public may even be better prepared for self-driving cars than we think. Flogging the equine analogy one last time, all stakeholders must get together - urgently - to see if we can successfully take the driver out of the equation as easily as we did the horse.

42 | Megatrends

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Kongsberg Automotive

Kongsberg Automotive provides world-class products to the global vehicle industry. Our products enhance the driving experience, making it safer, more comfortable and sustainable.

Enhancing the driving experience Our Business

Kongsberg Automotive’s business has a global presence. With revenues of around EUR 1 billion and over 10,000 employees in 20 countries, Kongsberg Automotive is truly a global supplier to the passenger car and commercial vehicle industries. The company is headquartered in Kongsberg, Norway, and has 32 production facilities worldwide.

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The product portfolio includes seat comfort systems, driveline related systems, fluid assemblies, and industrial driver-interface products developed for global vehicle manufacturers.

NORWAY

Kongsberg Oslo Hvittingfoss Raufoss Rollag

SWEDEN

Gothenburg Ljungsarp Mullsjö

POLAND

UK Grand-Mère

USA

Novi Milan Grand River

Vráble

HUNGARY Siófok

Enschede

FRANCE Paris Cluses Molsheim

MEXICO

Moscow

SLOVAKIA

THE NETHERLANDS Willis Easley Brownsville Suffield Swainsboro Laredo

RUSSIA

Pruszków

Burton Basildon Normanton

CANADA

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ITALY SPAIN Epila

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JAPAN

Shanghai (Lonestar) Shanghai (SKADFM) Wuxi

Padova

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INDIA

Gurgaon Pune

Tokyo

KOREA Yangsan

Matamoros Nuevo Laredo Reynosa

BRAZIL Jundiaí

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Kongsberg Automotive Group is organized into four business areas, Interior, Driveline, Fluid Transfer, Driver Control, each with a clear customer and product focus.

www.kongsbergautomotive.com

Driving in-vehicle innovation with the Internet of Things. Learn more at intel.com/automotive

Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s only natural for our digital, connected lives to extend to our cars to make our rides safer and more enjoyable. Intel is setting the wheels in motion by partnering with the automotive industry. We are using our technology and expertise, and investing in research and ecosystem alignment, to accelerate the development of innovative, unique experiences from the car to the cloud.

Connected Car

The infotainment landscape is changing - and it’s happening quickly A bigger picture view is needed to ensure infotainment strategies don’t miss wider technological trends, writes I.P. Park, EVP and Chief Technology Officer at Harman International he automotive industry now faces signiﬁcant challenges to address the seismic shift of communications technology in an increasingly connected mobile universe. Once, infotainment suppliers’ key strengths lay in audio and system integration technologies. Now, three new major technology themes are equally as relevant and should be of greater concern to the OEMs; Big Data, Smart Connectivity and User Experience will be increasingly critical as consumer expectations and commercial opportunities expand.

The infotainment landscape is changing and it is happening quickly. Just as the IT industry witnessed mainframe computers lose out to personal computers, today it’s the Smartphone that dictates integration strategies for the vehicle manufacturers. Sales of Smartphones easily surpass desktop automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

and laptop computer sales combined, and with research highlighting that more than 92 million vehicles with Internet connectivity will be on the road by 2016, there is massive potential for success or failure. Throw in third-party applications and a mobile network that has become more reliable and robust, and it’s clear OEMs must consider a wider approach to delivering in-car infotainment. A craving for data consumption Analysts from IDC predict that the Internet of Things (IoT) market will rise dramatically in the coming years; up from 9.1 billion installed units at the end of 2013 to closer to 28.1 billion by 2020. The generation and consumption of data is beyond what many predicted and continues to grow at a phenomenal rate. Consider that Facebook now has more than one billion users, and six billion

hours of YouTube videos are watched every month. Twitter is now up to 6,000 tweets per second, and although it’s hard to believe, analysts claim that 90% of the world’s data was created in the last couple of years. Rationalising that level of data is going to be harder if OEMs don’t get a grasp of this. Despite its potential to enhance the human experience, it's already difficult to collect and analyse the insights gathered through Big Data. In the car, infotainment will need to be smart to ensure communications are personalised and more efficient. Future Infotainment systems will have to derive values from Big Data by analysing data generated in real time and compiling this with other sources, such as traffic, weather or commercial offerings. Infotainment suppliers will need to rationalise and personalise the data to the user, and tomorrow’s Megatrends | 45

Connected Car successful innovators will provide users with access to this proliﬁc content in the car as more of a uniﬁed ‘lifestyle experience’. For Harman, that means our audio and infotainment technologies, whether in the home, work or car, will integrate into users’ daily lives in ways we can’t yet fully imagine. Getting smarter Smart Connectivity is built upon allowing for intelligent experiences in all walks of life with devices aware of their surroundings. Sensors will form a connected network of lifestyle solutions to quickly and quietly help us with our daily life. In-car technology will incorporate smart connectivity that is safe, minimises distraction and adds to that lifestyle experience as well as providing passengers with the latest from the connected world. The last of these three areas is User Experience (UX). UX means creating design that focuses on the ‘holistic’ interaction a user has with a product or a service. UX must go beyond a standard user interface (UI), also covering the user’s expectations and even emotions, as well as other intangible factors. OEMs must not consider that UX is simply “ease of use”; because of the human interaction, there is also a deep psychological element. OEMs will need to gain a better understanding of the human factors as well as the technological elements. Research will play its part at this stage and UX must be considered

46 | Megatrends

a priority. At Harman, we are already looking at a variety of methods such as eye tracking, gesture recognition and haptic feedback as elements of a future UX that is both natural and safe. Beyond the obvious Innovation as we have seen will have to reach beyond the traditional silos of hardware and software development. R&D strategies will need to be considered to have many more domains. This could include traditional software or materials but expect to see them joined by human psychology and others. UX, Smart Connectivity and Big Data will shape and drive this transformation. As the boundaries expand beyond and into the car, technology ﬁrms will have to manage

the building blocks they are creating. A matrix of differentiators or enablers will emerge. Those with more opportunities for reuse or those unrestricted by platforms will become more valuable and of more use. Managers of these technologies will need to look further forward to assess the true value and determine their contribution, not only to today but also to tomorrow. With a rigorous process and effective management, technology ﬁrms will be able to ‘future proof’ their R&D programmes, ensuring they remain relevant to the changes happening within the automotive electronics sector. These will be the suppliers with the reputation that the OEMs require and will be the survivors in an ever changing environment.

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Cyber-Physical Systems of Systems Towards a European Roadmap on Research and Innovation in Engineering and Management of Cyber-Physical Systems of Systems

CPSoS is a 30-month European Union funded Support Action that is a forum and exchange platform for Systems of Systems related communities and ongoing projects, focusing on the challenges posed by the engineering and the operation of technical systems in which computing and communication systems interact with large complex physical systems. Examples of this are the road transport network, the rail network, air traffic management, shipping operations and logistics. In the automotive sector key areas of interest are car-to-infrastructure and car-to-car communications, automated driver assist and autonomous car technologies. The Working Group on Systems of Systems in Transportation and Logistics Chaired by Professor Haydn Thompson, Haydn Consulting Ltd., UK is investigating the impact of ICT technologies in the automotive, aerospace, rail and maritime sectors analyzing industrial and societal needs, challenges of the application domains, commonalities and differences between applications and proposed solutions. The key aim is to gather the relevant stakeholders, leading specialists from computer science, systems and control, systems engineering, domain experts, end-users and vendors of solutions and prepare a proposal for the â&#x20AC;&#x153;European Research and Innovation Agenda on Cyber-Physical Systems of Systemsâ&#x20AC;? to influence future research funding. For those interested in getting involved in the Working Group or in its outputs please contact Haydn.Thompson@haydnconsulting.com, www.haydnconsulting.com www.cpsos.eu

Connected Car

Repurposing time with the automotive interior of the future Martin Kahl talks to Han Hendriks of Johnson Controls about the way the car of the future will shape the interior of the future hink of the car of the future, and you are likely to think of a radical design concept, with a striking and unusual exterior design. But the exterior is just that; itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s what lies beneath and behind that really matters. Whilst the powertrain engineers work out what happens under the hood, the interior suppliers are already trying to

48 | Megatrends

work out what you see, feel and experience when you open the door and step in. The car of the future needs the interior of the future, and that interior needs to be smart and multi-functional, as Vice President Advanced Product Development and Sales at Johnson

Controls Automotive Interiors, Han Hendriks, explains to Megatrends. Hendriks heads up a cross functional global innovation team, which was brought together by grouping previously separate innovation functions into one organisation. The team reports directly to the companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Connected Car

president, and has its own set of ﬁnancial KPIs worked out together with the company CFO to ensure a good return on investment. “When we introduced this new model, we also started engaging much more with our customers,” explains Hendriks. “We found that the people higher up in the OEM organisations we spoke to did not ask about door panels, for example, but wanted to know what the future holds for automotive interiors. They wanted to know where we think it is going.” To be able to give answer to such questions, JCI began a project called IV25, which stands for Interior Vision 2025. “We asked researchers, designers and engineers to go and ﬁgure out where three very important segments of the automotive industry are going to go.” automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

The ﬁrst of these was to identify the future of China luxury. “China will be the largest luxury market in the world, and we think that is going to impact global luxury. We see premium content increase with every vehicle, and premium content cascading down to the lower segments. I think by 2020, the China luxury vehicle market will be one and a half times the US and Europe combined. Up to now it’s been traditional luxury that has been embraced by Chinese consumers looking to European luxury, for example. But now a younger Chinese generation is entering a stage of their lives in 2025 where they can afford luxury vehicles, and we think this generation has the pride, ability and conﬁdence to make choices of what they think is luxury, what they think is premium, and not only look at the western world but start to mix in Chinese heritage.”

The second area of focus was Urban AB, which looked at the future of small cars in big cities, and alongside that, the transition from vehicle ownership to vehicle ‘usership’. This is the concept of pay-as-you-go car clubs, where the car that you use varies depending on your needs at the time. “You may, for example, have a subscription that allows you to use different cars depending on the needs that you have.” And those cars will have to meet very different requirements, explains Hendriks. “The car is not your car, but the ﬁrst thing you want is that it smells fresh when you open it, and does not smell of the person before you. You want it to be clean, so we need to think about odour management technology and self-cleaning nano surfaces.” Interestingly, Hendriks sees a strong link between car usership and autonomous car technology. “The Megatrends | 49

Connected Car vehicle will play a different role. I may visit a city in Europe with friends and need a car for the evening, but it will be a very different vehicle from the one I will use by myself at the weekend. I may have a subscription to a car brand, or an independent subscription that allows me to use different cars without being tied to one brand. Imagine then an autonomous car as part of that. I want to leave at 8pm, but I don’t want to pick up the car. The car will come to me. That will enable this whole car usership versus ownership concept, because the car will always be there when I need it.” Some personalisation of the vehicle interior already exists, with key fobs retaining specific personal settings information, such as seat position and infotainment system preferences. The next step is for OEMs and suppliers to prepare an interior that ‘recognises’ the next driver as they approach, explains Hendriks. “I approach a vehicle and it recognises me. It smells fresh and clean. I enter the vehicle, and every surface is smart. The graphics that I created with my app are now visible on the panels when I open the door. The seat adjusts to my position, the navigation system and radio are set. It will become my car interior, independent of what vehicle I enter.” Hendriks believes autonomous driving will be the game changer for automotive interiors of the future, so much so that the impact of autonomous driving on the interior was the third area of focus for the researchers. Hendriks is convinced that in 2025, autonomous cars will be a fact of life, for reasons of safety, foremost, followed by convenience and comfort. “We call it repurposing time.” Hendriks also cites an aging generation with a high level of purchasing power as having an influence on the introduction of autonomous cars. “They do not want to give up their mobility - and they’re the legislation makers. So they’ll be driving legislation and technology and investment to enable autonomous driving for that generation.” When JCI began this research two and a half years ago, Hendriks admits that across the team there was some scepticism. Those sceptics have now seen that autonomous drive technology is already here, he grins. Current car interiors are set up specifically for people to sit strapped into fixed seats facing forwards. With 50 | Megatrends

autonomous cars able to talk to each other and thus able to avoid collisions, the repurposing of time will mean the repurposing of the interior. Critical will be the legislation that dictates the length of time that someone in the car doing things other than driving needs to take to switch full attention to the task of driving and take back control from the vehicle. “We think ten to 15 seconds will be the maximum time.” Any redesigning of the complete interior will still need the driver to be back behind the wheel. “You can’t fall asleep on the back seat, but you can start to turn the seat to a different position. You can start to design a table that comes out of the floor or the instrument panel so that you can pull up your laptop, or use an entertainment system, have some food, and do different things while driving.” Hendriks says two dates will play a key role in the introduction of the autonomous car: 2020 and 2025. “One OEM that we talked to about autonomous driving said they’re going to introduce a vehicle in around 2020, but it’s going to be a normal vehicle with an autonomous driving option. Except for the autonomous driving technology, it will be the same car. The IP, the floor, the seats, all the safety systems will be the same in the standard version and the autonomous version. So a transition will happen between 2020 and 2025, but then the first signs of change in the interior of an autonomous car will become visible. It

will be a different end-user experience in those vehicles. During a 40 minute commute, you will be doing different things for 30 minutes.” The findings of the research have been combined and Johnson Controls has begun to develop initial views on where these three aspects of the future of interiors will lead. Many of the findings and feedback are being combined into the company’s next demonstrator vehicle, which will debut at the Detroit auto show in January 2015. That will feature a full automotive interior with numerous innovations that are ready for market but that have not yet been shown. “In that demonstrator, we are introducing a number of new user experiences, including self driving car technology. Hendriks hints that it will answer some of the questions around what the impact will be on an interior supplier’s products. “Will the console shape and functionality change? You will be moving around more in the interior - what does it mean for the instrument panel if you are not always driving? You will need some sort of surface that you can use to work.” The concept vehicle will not feature an interior that turns into a bed, grins Hendriks, “but it will enable the driver to do things other than just drive. It will enable more social configurations of the seats to make interaction with other passengers easier. It will enable doing different things like working or eating in the vehicle.” automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

With electronics, we’re going places you’ve never been. Johnson Controls, a leading supplier of electronics, offers full in-vehicle infotainment, connectivity and driver information solutions. By bringing together adaptive cloud and vehicle-based information sources with highly intuitive user interaction, we’re achieving new levels in driver satisfaction without sacrificing safety. To learn more about our electronics capabilities visit us at johnsoncontrols.com.

Automotive IT news at the speed of innovation For current news and opinions on a variety of automotive technology, design, and manufacturing topics, head to AutomotiveITNews. From the latest connected car platform wars to innovative fuel economy developments, we provide up to the minute news online, on Twitter, and via email newsletter subscription.

See whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s new at www.automotiveitnews.org/pages/it

eMobility

Battery chemistry and the hybrid, plug-in hybrid stop-gap

Growth in plug-in hybrids ahead of improved battery EV technology, and China’s rising interest in hybrid powertrains are two key e-mobility trends identified by Kevin Mak, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics n its latest report, OEM Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Strategies: Plug-In Hybrid and Tesla Gigafactory to Widen the Market, Strategy Analytics sees two main trends that will affect the electrified powertrain market in the next few years: firstly, plug-in hybrids are being touted as a stop-gap before new battery chemistries provide the breakthrough for pure electric vehicles; and secondly, attempts to limit air pollution are raising the profile of hybrid powertrains in China.

will not appear until 2018 at the very earliest – more likely towards the 2025 timeframe. In the meantime, vehicle manufacturers are still pressured to comply with the tougher mandates on raising fuel economy and limiting harmful emissions. Although other fuel-saving technologies are increasingly being deployed to the market, they cannot provide the large savings that a plug-in powertrain can

provide. These large savings are especially prized by luxury brands, whose large capacity engines and sales in mostly large model segments make these brands particularly vulnerable to the new mandates. Additional legislative measures are also being looked at to eliminate tailpipe emissions altogether and effectively ban the use of combustion engines in city centres.

Plug-in hybrid stop-gap It is well-known in the automotive industry that battery chemistries need to be developed further in order to overcome the high cost, lack of thermal stability and low energy capacity (resulting in short driving range) from current technologies. According to Strategy Analytics, vehicle manufacturers are turning their attention to plug-in hybrid models as a means of addressing this issue in the short-term. While battery chemistries such as lithium-air, lithium-sulphur and zinc-air are being touted as the solution for pure electric vehicles, such chemistries automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Megatrends | 53

eMobility • European cities, such as London,

are proposing “Ultra-Low Emission Zones” in an effort to limit air pollution. The recent proposal by London’s mayor, Boris Johnson, has resulted in a number of plug-in hybrid taxi cab concepts being previewed. More European cities have since made announcements proposing to form a ULEZ. • Beijing had instituted a ban on combustion-powered motorcycles and scooters at short notice, resulting in the preview of a plug-in hybrid BMW 5 Series concept at the 2011 Shanghai Motor Show - its production in China will start by 2016. To prevent the loss of sizeable sales in the key China market, luxury brands have announced new model ranges to satisfy any potential combustion engine ban. Furthermore, the nascent charging infrastructures are not extensive enough to provide the convenience consumers demand when owning a pure electric vehicle. The combustion engine in a plug-in hybrid offers the comfort of a secondary drive source, if a nearby charging facility is not available. This is particularly important for consumers who do not own a large driveway or a garage - particularly those consumers living in apartments, which is common in the Chinese market. The plug-in capability also means that they may still being eligible for government incentives. As a result, some car manufacturers are beginning to design their future model ranges to be electriﬁed vehicles from the ground-up. All powertrain platforms are now designed to allow some form of electric drive, which

includes plug-in hybrid systems that can be installed on the same assembly lines as conventionally-powered variants. • Examples include the Volkswagen

Group having plug-in hybrid variants on almost all models on both the MLB and MQB platforms. The compact MQB platform already has plug-in hybrid variants on the new Audi A3 etron, Volkswagen Golf and Passat GTE. • Toyota is currently developing the next generation Prius hybrid model. As with the current generation, there will be a plug-in hybrid variant. It is expected to see more advanced features, such as a wireless charging system. China hybrid boost While the Chinese Government had initially focused its automotive industry towards pure electric vehicles, the high

battery cost and lack of charging infrastructures have meant that it could now be more willing to accept hybrid vehicles as a means of tackling the chronic air pollution in its cities. Fuel efficiency subsidies are offered to purchasers of vehicles that can achieve a certain level of fuel economy for that vehicle’s weight category. Furthermore, the price of fuel is likely to be released further from government controls, making fuel economy a more important factor in vehicle purchasing decisions by Chinese consumers. Both measures could boost hybrid vehicle demand in China. As a result, two major global motor manufacturers have announced their intention to raise hybrid vehicle production in the country. Honda is to begin assembling the Fit Hybrid (with GAC) in 2016. Toyota has been assembling the Camry Hybrid (with its joint venture partner, GAC) and the

“

As corporate average fuel emission standards get stricter, we believe that hybrids will become the mainstream among green cars - Seiji Kuraishi, China Chief Operating Officer, Honda

54 | Megatrends

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

eMobility

Prius (with FAW) since 2013. The recent announcement reveals plans to add the Corolla and Levin Hybrids in Toyota’s China line-up from 2015 onwards. To support its effort, Toyota has opened a technical centre in Changshu. Both vehicle manufacturers have a commitment to localise component sourcing to circumvent import tariffs. Key localised components include the battery packs; Toyota’s are supplied by Hunan Corun. Hybrid concepts with designs specifically aimed at the Chinese market have also been previewed by Honda and Toyota. To counter the lack of charging infrastructure, plug-in hybrids have also been targeted by foreign luxury OEMs. The Volkswagen Group has identified ten models in order to increase its sales of electrified vehicles in China, most of which are plug-in hybrids. In 2016, two speciallydesigned plug-in hybrid models for the Chinese market will begin local production - the Audi A6 e-tron (assembled by FAW-VW) and another sedan under the Volkswagen brand (assembled by Shanghai-VW). China’s BYD is also widening its hybrid offerings with a platform strategy, aimed at raising plug-in hybrid variants in all future models. The wider benefits of plugging in As well as hybrid powertrain growth, production capacity for traction batteries will grow in China. Hunan Corun is poised to benefit from Toyota’s growth plan. Backed by local automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

investment, LG Chem broke ground on a new production facility in Nanjing, close to a current facility making batteries for smartphone handsets and other portable consumer electronic devices. Samsung SDI also broke ground on another facility in Xi’an, to be jointly operated with its partner, Anqing Huanxin Group. Semiconductors are another beneficiary of China’s push for hybrid powertrains. NXP had earlier formed China’s first automotive semiconductor company, Datang NXP Semiconductors, from the partnership with Datang Telecom. Datang NXP develops application-specific mixed signal chips, mainly destined for hybrid and electric powertrains. Freescale had established joint laboratories to develop hybrid powertrain control units for Dongfeng

and Foton (BAIC). Infineon also has an automotive technical centre and an IGBT (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor) stack manufacturing facility. STMicroelectronics, too, has joint laboratories but with Chang’an, FAW and Great Wall, while ON Semiconductor recently announced the formation of a joint research laboratory with Keboda, a Chinese Tier 2 supplier of ECUs (Electronic Control Units) and electric motor inverters, and Tongji University in Shanghai. The Q3 2014 Strategy Analytics System Demand Forecast points to a growth in plug-in hybrids, rising from 73,000 units globally in 2013 to nearly 2.9 million units by 2021. For all hybrid and electric vehicles, these will grow from 2.2 million in 2013 to nearly 12 million units by 2021. Megatrends | 55

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eMobility

Interview: Stefan Pischinger, Chief Executive, FEV Megatrends talks to Stefan Pischinger who, in addition to his CEO role at FEV, is also the organiser of the Aachen Colloquium and a member of FISITAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s honorary committee By Michael Nash

hat the key trends and issues that are shaping the automotive industry of tomorrow?

I think the key topics have been the same for years. Fuel economy and emissions are the main two, related mainly to the powertrain, but increasingly also by the whole vehicle. E-mobility is also a signiďŹ cant topic that has been open to discussion for a while. However, there is increasing agreement automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

that the future is not just going to belong to electric vehicles (EVs). Although they will certainly have a place, they will share the market with hybrid vehicles. The cost efficiency of hybridisation and 48 volt technology is a big issue, as is the continued improvement of diesel and gasoline engines.

the classic topics of aerodynamics, exhaust energy recuperation, board net optimisation, car to infrastructure and car to car communication and networking, and even autonomous driving coming into consideration. These all, in some way, come under the umbrella of improving fuel consumption.

In pole position in terms of current issues is the propulsion of the powertrain in general. But then you have

An increasing awareness of the gap between real world fuel efficiency and official recorded ďŹ gures has Megatrends | 57

eMobility been evident across the industry for some time. What role does this play in FEV’s technology development? Today, when we present technologies on fuel economy, we evaluate them not only in the NEDC but also in the new test procedure called WLTP. If we switch to WLTP, legislators will have to come up with a new figure that OEMs and suppliers are required to reach. The political discussion on whether or not these values are realistic is prominent. In my opinion, NEDC was primarily developed as a synthetic test cycle for pollutant emissions, and not to give the driver an indication of what fuel consumption he will have on the road. Real world driving is formed by the driver characteristics – those that are well trained to drive efficiently can benefit from a 25% - 30% saving in fuel consumption compared to those who drive fast or erratically. The optimisation of conditions during NEDC tests has allowed OEMs and suppliers to put a stamp on vehicles that will be difficult for normal drivers to obtain during realworld conditions. Where do you see powertrain development heading over the next ten years and beyond? I see a strong trend in the evolution of the passenger car diesel engine, where we will see much higher specific power. Engine downsizing will include further reductions in cylinder numbers, with related turbo charger and direct injection technology. Friction reduction is another big issue in powertrain, and it will continue to be a big trend. Developments in roller bearings will help reduce friction dramatically, as we already see in turbo chargers, but we will see it in cam shafts and balancer

58 | Megatrends

shafts, maybe even in crank shafts. Innovations for variability will continue to come into powertrains, particularly variable compression ratio which we are bound to see in production within the next five years. The adoption of natural gas in powertrains will continue, but at the same time we will reduce CO2 emission by 20% when using existing fuels through innovation and trends like engine downsizing. What role do you expect plug-in technology to play? Plug-in hybrids will penetrate the heavy vehicle segment in the next ten years. That is the way to go for heavier vehicles to meet CO2 legislation. EVs will probably be used more for urban vehicles and niche markets, often with some form of range extender. I also think fuel cells in general will remain a niche technology in the coming years. They will not become mainstream, as it will take a long time to reduce their initial costs and they are extremely dependent on the growth of an entirely new hydrogen infrastructure. How much life do you think is left in the internal combustion engine (ICE)? When it comes to ships or locomotives, and even the heavy duty vehicle segment, where powertrains run for long periods of time under high load conditions, nobody sees an end to ICEs. If we focus solely on those drivers

that only tend to travel short distances, the question is how many people are willing to buy separate, dedicated vehicles, just for the city? If you want to have both, the solution will be plug-in hybrids, which means there is still an ICE included in the powertrain. There will be dedicated pure electric vehicles for the city, but there is certainly no end to ICEs on the immediate horizon. How important is the integration of software into the engineering process of powertrains? The big challenge in the engineering processes arises from the number of variants to be covered. Therefore we have to use software and its malleability, otherwise we will drown in millions of applications. Although software has made many processes in vehicle development more efficient, its complexity has made things much more complicated. Calibration also poses a big challenge, along with other factors like the safety and security of software. These can pose an interesting scenario for hackers who want to reach all the way down to your engine controls, or vehicle safety relevant applications. As a result, FEV has many advanced research projects and numerous development projects in exactly this area. The ISO 26262 makes sure that we have really reliable software. To sum up, things are getting more and more complex, and we have to really make sure that all aspects of the vehicle are reliable and safe.

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

I N N OVAT I O N I N T H E A I R , N O W S TA N DA R D O N T H E G RO U N D. Garmin, the global leader in satellite navigation, now extends our aviation and marine OEM engineering expertise to the automotive industry. From simple removable solutions to full vehicle infotainment systems and rear seat entertainment, Garmin can develop and manufacture a system that meets your specifications. Garmin software and hardware infotainment platforms not only provide best-in-class navigation but can also include audio and climate control functions, digital instrumentation and smartphone integration. To learn more about Garmin solutions customized for your business, contact your Garmin Automotive OEM Sales Rep, visit Garmin.com/infotainment or email Mkt.Autooem@garmin.com

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eMobility

Electric vehicles in a driverless future Oliver Rix, a Partner in the Energy Advisory practice at Baringa Partners, considers the links between driverless cars, electric vehicle powertrains and energy systems

n the late Iain M. Banks’ classic Culture science ﬁction novels, it is noteworthy that pan-galactic civilisation is effectively governed by intelligent vehicles (albeit in the form of 100kmlong, all-powerful warp-speed spacecraft, rather than the odd Fiesta with a satnav). Back here on Earth, the development of driverless cars continues apace, including various countries’ announcements of pilot schemes to get cars without drivers on

60 | Megatrends

the road by 2015, and regular news of technology and communications trials. It is easy to see why vehicles could indeed be the place where Artiﬁcial Intelligence really does develop, given the challenges of real-time sensing and information processing, communicating with potentially hundreds or thousands of other road users or interacting objects, and dealing with decentralised versus centralised decision-making.

Ultimately, in extremis, this extends to having the ability to make ’moral’ splitsecond decisions; hypothetical scenarios used to illustrate such decisions include the choice between running over the neighbour’s cat or causing your child in the back seat to suffer whiplash. While the potential for this technology to have a huge impact on road safety in the long run should perhaps be the automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

eMobility

Emergency stop: the Vienna Convention requires every moving vehicle to have a driver “able to control his vehicle”

together on motorways, again enabled through direct communication and coordination between vehicles). But enabling cars to drive on their own could also have a profound effect on the role of electric vehicles (EVs) in a decarbonising world.

primary reason to support it, it is interesting to consider how transformational it could be in the context of decarbonising the transport part of our energy system. In 2013, 116 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) were emitted by the transport sector in the UK, which equates to around 25% of the total CO2 emissions nationally. Road transport is the most signiﬁcant contributor, and in particular passenger cars. From a pure efficiency perspective, there should be substantial gains. For example, smoother driving speeds enabled through communication between vehicles will reduce slowing and stopping, and a reduction in congestion in general will reduce energy use. So, too, would reduced drag through concepts such as car trains (where cars are driven very close automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

EVs are often seen as a core part of a decarbonised future energy system in the 2030s and beyond. The logic goes that first electricity generation is decarbonised by moving to low-carbon options, such as nuclear and renewables. Having done that, electrification of other parts of the energy system, such as heating and transport, becomes a route to driving carbon reductions elsewhere. Often, the narrative is extended to recognise the potential synergy between the need to manage intermittent output from renewables and the extensive battery capability that could exist within a fleet of EVs. Essentially, the variable output from wind and solar generators would be absorbed and smoothed by the smart management of the charging and discharging of a fleet of millions of EVs, reducing the need for costly (and potentially carbon-emitting) back-up generation. Clearly, there are a number of challenges to this scenario, not least the cost of EVs compared to conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) alternatives. Perhaps even more critical are the practical limitations on the use of EVs that are implied by the battery range and charging requirements. Many would challenge the practicality of a high volume of EVs on the road for these reasons, even in the longer timeframe under discussion here. This problem is compounded by the fact that the most obvious starting points for greater penetration of EVs are urban centres. Not only would the

shorter urban journeys be more suited to limited range EVs, but there would be significant benefits in terms of improved air quality and reduced noise pollution. Arguably, one could see these urban factors ultimately being stronger drivers for EV deployment than decarbonisation, depending on the outcome of international negotiations around carbon, given the much more direct and visible impact on people’s lives today. But urban centres are also the place where charging challenges are perhaps the greatest. While a few public charging points might support small volumes of EVs, the lack of off-road parking for the great majority of residents would appear to be a huge barrier to greater adoption – you can’t just park in the street when you get home and plug in your car as you might in the driveway or garage of a suburban house. This could change dramatically with driverless cars. Suddenly, there is no need to plug a car in at home. In fact, there’d be no need even to park near home at all. Your car could drop you off, and make its own way to the nearest garage for charging, ready to pick you up later. It might well return to somewhere closer by when it is ready to roll. However, there is still the problem of cost. Here, the prospect of driverless cars opens up the potential for a radical change in the model of car ownership. While there are, of course, many and various reasons for wanting to own a car, arguably many of them are associated with having a vehicle readyand-waiting outside your door when you need it, rather than the concept of ownership itself. In the seminal 1995 RAC Foundation report ‘Car Dependence’, four of the top five key reasons for ownership related to having a car when you needed it, the privacy, the feeling of control, and the Megatrends | 61

eMobility enjoyment of driving – none of which per se require ownership of a vehicle. Of course, there are many other social and emotional reasons why people want to own their vehicles, but it is certainly possible that over time these might be outweighed by other benefits associated with different models. So, if we could overcome the social barriers to different ownership models, what might the cost impact be? Let’s take London as an example. There are around 2.6 million cars owned by London residents, making around 5 million trips on an average weekday. Many of these are short – they split roughly a third each between trips of less than 2 km, trips between 2 and 5 km, and longer than 5 km. Perhaps more surprisingly, it also turns out that car trips are relatively well distributed across the day – there is very little difference in the number of car trips taken per hour between 7am and 7pm. So, the maximum number of concurrent trips is correspondingly relatively low – approximately 400,000. Allowing for some slack, this suggests that it might be possible to deliver all the trips required by London’s car drivers with, say, a third of the number of cars in total. If that could happen, the barrier associated with higher costs for EVs would clearly be very significantly reduced. In addition, of course, there could be important social benefits in terms of accessibility – for those who are unable to drive themselves for health or disability reasons, and for those in lower income brackets for whom car ownership is not affordable. Clearly this would take more thinking and analysis to consider fully – including regional patterns and how cars would move between trips for different customers, where charging centres would be located, and, importantly, assessing how demand for journeys might change under this very different service model. But it seems like an opportunity worth assessing. Such a change would, of course, require much more than just the driverless cars themselves. A whole new provision of service would be required, and a ‘smart’ system of communications and control would be needed to ensure that cars were in the right place at the right time to offer something sufficiently close to the ready-when-you-need-it attraction of owning your own vehicle. 62 | Megatrends

Nissan carries out first public road test of autonomous drive on expressways in Japan

While some, such as the UK’s Committee on Climate Change, see EVs as a ‘must-have’ element of a low carbon future, others, such as the Energy Technologies Institute, are less clear-cut and see multiple different pathways. But either way, most organisations that have considered, and aimed to quantify through modelling, the potential role of EVs in decarbonisation pathways have simply tested the replacement of internal combustion engines with electric motors, rather than

exploring changes to the pattern of use. When we are talking about long-term (2050) scenarios, perhaps we need to start re-considering this. In terms of timeframes, that leaves plenty of time for driverless technologies to develop and for the associated cultural and legal issues to be overcome. And we know the potential rate at which IT and associated communications solutions can develop. Might driverless cars be the catalyst for which EVs have been waiting? automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

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eMobility

London, the EV megacity London’s allocation of Soul EVs is small but significant; Michael Nash talks to Kia about the role of the EV in the megacity of tomorrow

number of additions to the EV segment have been launched in megacities across the world, with a distinct emphasis on where they are debuted. The BMW i3, for example, was launched in New York, London and Beijing - the three megacities that the German OEM actively expressed would best suit its ﬁrst pure battery EV.

Kia’s entry into the pure battery EV race is the Soul EV. Like BMW, Kia has identiﬁed London as one of its EV targets. Megatrends joined the OEM at its recent London launch event for the Soul EV, and sat down with the company’s European Head of Product Planning and its UK Chief Executive. A familiar design OEMs can take numerous measures to ensure their EVs are designed with city driving in mind. According to David Labrosse, Head of Product Planning at Kia Motors Europe, the incorporation of

64 | Megatrends

certain features like stop/start applications and regenerative braking systems can make EVs extremely suitable for driving in megacities. Labrosse also believes that in using features and applications that are common across the EV segment, the general public receives a similar experience of the vehicles and can start to become familiar with their beneﬁts. This common, broad approach to design is widely seen as crucial to customer education and future acceptance of EVs, particularly as it may help reduce range anxiety. The range factor Continuous developments in batteries and infrastructure have helped lower the range anxiety that has been a signiﬁcant detrimental factor in the adoption of EVs. Many industry experts believe that by launching EVs, adapting them for use in megacities and

targeting their marketing accordingly, OEMs can begin to overcome prospective buyers’ range anxiety. “There are many people who live in the city and only travel a maximum of 10km daily. If there is a charging station at their workplace and they are able to charge at home, EVs make perfect sense,” states Paul Philpott, President and Chief Executive of Kia Motors UK. “We must prove to them that our EV is suitable for their needs not just by delivering certain features that will be effective in cities, but by launching the EV in the city from the start.” However, Philpott acknowledges the need for people to be able to take unplanned, ad hoc journeys. “The great advantage of the motor car is that it gets you from A to B, but if you unexpectedly need to go to C you can do. There is a gas station on most street corners, or within a couple of miles. Right now, there is not a charging station on every street corner to allow you to do the

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

eMobility

fact that OEMs often form working relationships with city legislators in order to collectively reduce the pollution levels. Working together

unexpected journey, because you don't yet feel certain about where you can charge these vehicles,” he says. “Taking the Kia Soul EV as an example, with a range of up to 132 miles and with both home and fast workplace charging available, people are changing their mind set and the way they think about their daily drive.” At the moment, Philpott concedes that EVs are only right for a certain group of customers, particularly those with another vehicle they can turn to if required. Consequently, in Philpott’s opinion, EVs “are likely to uniquely remain a second household car for a substantial time.” The environmental factor Air quality levels in cities have borne the brunt of criticism from government automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

legislators for some time. From Boris Johnson’s recent plan of attack against high levels of nitrous oxide (NOx) emitted by dirty diesels in London, to the Chinese government’s attempt to enforce the adoption of clean vehicles in Beijing, air pollution in megacities is an issue prominent across the world’s automotive industry. Adopting EVs is one of the ways the world can reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, and decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) and other harmful emissions. By launching their EVs in megacities, OEMs are showing their contribution to improving emissions levels and air quality. “We want to deliver solutions to problems across the industry. Air pollution in megacities has certainly been a factor that pushed us to develop an EV that is perfect for city driving,” says Labrosse. He also points out the

Back in 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a case study detailing the EV deployment effort in cities around the world. It aimed to highlight a number of approaches that could help accelerate the process towards the acceptance, adoption and mass production of EVs. A key ﬁnding of the report was the need for OEMs to work alongside government bodies in promoting the use of EVs in cities, and to further improve the infrastructure on which the vehicles will rely. Although the approaches taken are different in each city, there are some similarities and common practices that are suitable for the various cities across the world - for example, government legislators can implement zero emissions zones in megacities, in which only EVs and fuel cells are able to operate. “We cannot do this alone,” concludes Labrosse. “If governments play their part, and we deliver the right solutions, then the future can be electric.” Megatrends | 65

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Powertrain Innovation

New emissions test procedure could lead to radical new powertrain strategies The combined effects of WLTP and consumer pressure for vehicle manufacturers to quote realistically achievable fuel economy figures will lead to some radical new powertrain technology choices, believes Torotrak’s Product Development Director, Jon Hilton he new WLTP (Worldwide harmonised Light vehicle Test Procedure) for vehicle emissions testing, scheduled for 2017, will at a single stroke sweep away many of the techniques that powertrain engineers employ to ensure their vehicles satisfy the requirements of increasingly tough emissions regulations. In parallel, the US$300m penalties recently levied on a vehicle manufacturer for being optimistic in its fuel economy claims show that there is growing pressure from Governments and customers to ensure that the stated test results reﬂect what drivers can realistically achieve.

outmoded test cycles and how people drive their cars in the real-world.

This means that the technology choices for the next generation of powertrains could be the most important ever made. Vehicle manufacturers have to ﬁnd a way not just to hit the next generation of emissions and FE targets, but to hit them while also closing the gap between the results achieved using

The current New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) test cycle has been widely criticised because of the growing disparity between the ‘official’ figures it generates and real-world achievements for the same vehicle. One of the most significant areas in which its age is showing is that the test cycle includes only modest levels of acceleration, reflecting the substantially lower performance of almost every vehicle at the time of its development. This limited performance envelope, and other historical flaws, such as motorway driving not being represented, has led to the development of ‘cycle-beating’ calibrations that, according to the ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation), show progressively improving Type Approval figures for vehicle CO2 emissions, without a corresponding improvement in the realworld.

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

The ICCT report is in fact quite damning. Of 15 Euro 6 diesel car types tested using what appears to be robust protocols, only one met the Euro 6 NOx limits ‘on the road’ and none even came close to meeting the Euro 6 CO2 limits. The worst performing vehicle emitted an astonishing average of seven times the type approval NOx ﬁgure. The greatest disparities were seen with premium vehicles and, interestingly, today’s electric hybrids. Replacing the NEDC procedure with the WLTP drive cycle will force vehicle manufacturers to close this gap, equivalent to mandating a significant cut in emissions. But it will also come with new, dramatically lower numerical targets. This means that the actual gap to which powertrain engineers must find a solution is in reality substantially wider than the figures suggest. Incremental improvements will no longer be enough; new technical approaches must be found. Megatrends | 67

Powertrain Innovation The optimum powertrain for realworld emissions reduction Real-world driving includes three main operating regimes: acceleration, which demands high power levels for short durations; steady cruising for prolonged periods, which may require as little as 20bhp even in a large sedan; and deceleration, where the vehicle’s hardearned forward momentum is traditionally dissipated as heat in the friction brakes. Hybrids take a significant step forward by addressing the recovery of energy in the third state, but the ideal powertrain should be optimised for all three. Current hybrids typically consist of a powerful combustion engine, producing over 100 kW, coupled with a much smaller alternative energy source of perhaps 25 kW. To address each of the three operating regimes with a hybrid powertrain strategy, this needs turning around so that efficiencies can be increased and more energy can be captured and re-used. Reaching future targets will be significantly simpler with something like a 30 kW internal combustion engine to cater for cruise conditions and a 100 kW alternative energy source providing acceleration and energy capture. The challenge is cost. Even complex IC engines, with a host of downsizing and emissions equipment – expensive units in historical terms – are affordable when compared with the cost of high power electric energy recovery and storage systems. Add the investments required at dealers to allow them to handle high voltages safely, together with battery end-of-life issues, and you have a challenging picture. It is no surprise, then, that research by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) showed that hybrid penetration in North America is still only at 3.8%. This conflicts with UMTRI’s survey of buyer preferences in which 31% of current non-hybrid owners stated they would purchase a hybrid for their next vehicle. The report concludes that the barrier is purchase price, a fact confirmed by other independent researchers. This is despite vehicle manufacturers often accepting lower margins on these vehicles (Deutsche Bank, reported in Automotive World, 10 October 2014) to mitigate their high manufacturing, engineering and materials cost. Clearly, hybrids are the way forward and hybrid strategies can 68 | Megatrends

and must develop substantially, but today’s high-voltage electric hybrids are not be the whole answer. Alternative approaches Vehicle manufacturers are therefore searching for new ways to address this issue, leading to a greater appetite for innovation. Front-end 48 V systems, for example, enable some relatively lowcost hybridisation, currently predicted to offer up to 10 kW to supplement the IC engine. But as we have seen, although this is a clever and worthwhile system, on the technology strategy road map it is a move in the wrong direction if we are to take a substantial step forward.

recaptured more quickly and more cheaply. One of the reasons that battery packs are so costly is that they don’t like fast energy ﬂows, so they have to be substantially over speciﬁed to ensure durability. This also means they can require heavy and costly thermal management systems to keep the large battery mass within its optimum temperature range. Because of the

At Torotrak, we believe a purely mechanical solution to the cost and complexity challenges of hybridisation offers great promise. By eliminating the highvoltage electrical systems, our Flybrid technology is substantially more affordable than conventional hybrids – around one quarter the cost – and at around 60 kg for a road car system, it is also around a third the weight. The key is to keep the recovered energy in its mechanical / kinetic form, storing it in a carbon composite flywheel that spins at up to 60,000 rpm. With low system weight, and output power typically in the 60-120kW range for a road car application, the system is very power dense, and is therefore well suited to supporting acceleration. Because it eliminates batteries, the flywheel system also provides full depth of discharge throughout the vehicle’s life, independent of temperature or drive cycle, and has no recycling issues. Another benefit of eliminating batteries is that more energy can be automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Powertrain Innovation relationship between energy and speed, one stop from highway velocities can recover as much energy as many stops from urban speeds, if the system can capture it. Our tests show that contrary to popular myth, hybrids that can recapture kinetic energy at a high power rating produce substantial gains even outside an urban drive cycle. Several manufacturers are at an advanced stage of prototype evaluation with flywheel hybrid vehicles and, even when a combustion engine remains the primary power source, some significant gains have been identified; Volvo, for example, has demonstrated a 25% fuel efficiency improvement in real world driving, compared to an equivalent IC engine. The quantum leap in emissions reduction will come when a larger flywheel hybridisation system is integrated into a vehicle with a much smaller engine, acting as a ‘load leveller’ to deal with peaks in acceleration demand. We will then also see some interesting developments in combustion strategies and significant reductions in their complexity as they will no longer have to rely on costly technologies to provide a wide spread of power and torque from a small unit.

no more than today’s complex, downsized engines yet makes a signiﬁcant contribution to solving the emissions and fuel economy issues that are now challenging vehicle engineers. Ironically, a mechanical flywheel hybridisation system could also be the enabler that helps EVs break free from the cost and range issues that are holding back their market acceptance. Using a flywheel KERS for very fast capture of kinetic energy allows a smaller, cheaper battery pack to be specified, giving the vehicle manufacturer new choices in how to balance cost, performance and range. Even electric vehicles can be better as hybrids! So although WLTP and consumer and Government pressures on fuel economy and emissions present substantial challenges for the industry, it could be that the search for a stepchange solution delivers a new, lower-cost starting point on which to build. The future doesn’t always have to be more complex. The best engineering solutions are always the simplest solutions - and that couldn’t be more true in an industry where cost, weight and durability are so critical.

The majority of our current vehicle manufacturer evaluation programmes install the unit to drive the rear wheels as a first, easily implemented improvement to an existing front-wheel drive platform. We also have a programme that integrates the flywheel unit with the transmission, which provides further significant cost and packaging benefits. This could be the first steps towards a new type of integrated, FWD powertrain that costs automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Megatrends | 69

How the GENIVI Alliance Works The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems. IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry. It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music, news and multimedia, navigation and location services, telephony, internet services and more. The alliance aims to align requirements, deliver reference implementations, offer compliance programs, and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community. The majority of GENIVI’s work is conducted through the technical and marketing teams and groups. There are currently six topical “expert groups” – Automotive, CE Connectivity, Location-based Services, Media and Graphics, Networking, and System Infrastructure. The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements, identify and enhance components that implement those requirements, and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement. In Asia, regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations. All of these requirements are collected, reviewed and integrated by the System Architecture Team, resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification.

The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular, six-month release cadence. The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions. The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance, providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services. Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website. Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services, middleware, and open application layer interfaces. These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set. Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces). GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem.

The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive, consumer electronics, communications, software, application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services.

OEMs

First Tiers

OSV, Middleware, Hardware, and Services Suppliers

Silicon

www.genivi.org

Powertrain Innovation

Fuel consumption in the real world

It’s time OEMs were open and honest about their vehicles’ true in-use performance, writes Jane Thomas, Global Sales Manager at Emissions Analytics missions Analytics, an independent commercial test house, has built an impressive inventory of real-world emissions data using a Portable Emissions Measurement System (PEMS) to analyse true in-use performance of passenger cars

This data resource, from tests on more than 800 vehicles, is transforming the economics of obtaining emissions data for OEMs who are tasked with understanding and acting upon the proposed legislative changes

concerning Real Driving Emissions (RDE) and the move towards the World Harmonised Light Test Cycle and Procedures (WLTC/P). The new testing system, developed by global representatives for the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe is due to be ﬁnalised in the spring of 2015. This test cycle is more representative of real-world driving and the test procedures should be more robust than those associated with the New European Drive Cycle (NEDC).

One of the reasons for the proposed change is the growing gap between the number of miles per gallon certified during the NEDC test and the fuel economy achievable by real drivers on the road. Much has been written on the subject recently, including Transport and Environment’s report Mind the Gap, which describes how manufacturers hyper-optimise for the test and the consequences this has for ordinary consumers. Using Emissions Analytics’ real-world data, the blue line on the graph below illustrates how this gap is growing, at about two percentage points per year, and is likely to continue to expand if left unchecked. With the introduction of the WLTC/P in 2017, the gap is predicted to close by between half and two-thirds (shown below in green), depending on how stringent the final protocol is. Interestingly, Emissions Analytics, which also tests vehicles in the USA from a base in Los Angeles, predicts this will bring the European divergence closer, but still not equal, to US variances. The US uses a more stringent five-test system, which tests the envelope of performance modes, reducing the opportunities for so-called

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Megatrends | 71

Powertrain Innovation

gaming and issuing significant financial penalties for manufacturers caught out by spot checks. The European Parliament and European Commission have proposed this new test be introduced in 2017, although there are obstacles and opposition from some parts of the automotive industry that would like longer to adapt to the changes. One of the challenges facing OEMs is the profile of the NEDC replacement, the WLTC. In an October 2014 report by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), it is estimated, “that the effect of the WLTP on the EU CO2 target value will be an increase of around 5%-8%”. The ICCT goes on to calculate that if applied to the NEDC based 95g/km CO2 target, due to come into effect in 2020-21, “the resulting target value in WLTP would then be 100g/km (without temperature correction) and 102g/km (including temperature correction)”. In other words, based on current technology, engines achieving 95g/km will, when tested on the new cycle, only achieve 100-102g/km. Emissions Analytics believes the increase could be higher than this. If nothing were changed in the targets, OEMs would need to deliver further efficiencies in their vehicles, and consumers in some 72 | Megatrends

countries could find themselves paying more vehicle tax. There is a methodology under development for translating the existing NEDC results into WLTC, but this is still work-in-progress and has limitations. What is clear is that forewarning of how current vehicles perform on the test can bring significant benefits to the engineers developing the vehicles which will be on the road when the WLTC/P is adopted. This is why some manufacturers use Emissions Analytics’ data to ensure compliance and to stay competitive, benchmarking their own progress against that of their closest rivals (as seen below). Another issue facing the industry is the introduction of in-use compliance testing designed to validate type approval NOx results. In another report by the ICCT, also published in October 2014, which included six of Emissions Analytics’ datasets on Euro 6 diesels, the average NOx emissions of the vehicles investigated were more than seven times the Euro 6 limit. Each of the 15 vehicles included in the report was type approved but in real-world use all but one failed to meet the legislative limit and therefore they would likely also fail a spot check. However, it should be noted that in our most recent data, the NOx picture is

already improving, with the latest cars showing an average exceedance of four times the regulated value. This is a similar exceedance ratio that was seen with Euro 5 diesel cars. This improvement in recent Euro 6 is a result of OEMs optimising their NOx abatement systems, for example urea dosing rates. Emissions Analytics has been carrying out its PEMS testing for three years, working with What Car? in the UK and Motor Trend in the USA to deliver a real-world fuel consumption tool consumers can trust. It will be making the data available to the automotive sector directly via a new, subscriptionbased software platform called RDEanalytics. As described in the examples above, OEMs and others will be able to query the database to identify how their vehicles perform currently, how they are likely to perform in the future and how they compare to their competitors. In times when manufacturers are under increasing pressure to be open and honest about their vehicles’ true in-use performance, plus with the imminent legislative changes which will formalise this requirement, there has never been a greater need for a reliable and robust source of data which can offer the insight and intelligence needed. automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

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Powertrain Innovation

The Conti-Schaeffler GTC, where 1+1=3 Continental and Schaeffler have teamed up to combine powertrain technologies using a Ford Focus 1.0-litre EcoBoost. Michael Nash investigates

74 | Megatrends

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Powertrain Innovation ome engineers and experts across the automotive industry believe the best way to reduce emissions and improve the fuel efficiency of vehicles is to develop a number of different technologies within the powertrain that work in unison. Consequently, developments in a large variety of different components, from roller bearings to batteries, have been continuously updated in the hope of achieving a cleaner and more efficient vehicle. Here, Megatrends examines the potential for combining products to build a better powertrain.

Gasoline Technology Car Continental and Schaeffler recently developed a concept car that utilises a variety of technologies and components to reduce emissions and increase the efficiency of the powertrain. The Gasoline Technology Car (GTC), which was ﬁrst presented during the International Vienna Motor Symposium in May 2014, has several unique characteristics as a hybrid vehicle. Since the Motor Symposium, the companies have been busy polishing and tweaking the vehicle, optimising the technologies in order to obtain the best results before the technology enters production. The GTC is similar to other hybrid cars, in that there are two sources of power that work to instigate propulsion – a battery and the burning of gasoline. It uses as a platform the Ford Focus, a car which can be ordered with an efficient, 1.0litre EcoBoost downsized and turbocharged three-cylinder engine. By using the downsizing and turbocharging processes, manufacturers are able to reduce the weight and increase the efficiency of the powertrain whilst maintaining original levels of performance and power. Yet, the GTC also uses a number of technologies and components that are not normally found in many hybrid vehicles. What’s the difference? Although the GTC holds characteristics similar to that of other hybrids, there are certain differences that set the car apart from its competitors. Thomas Knorr, Project automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Manager for Technology & Innovation, Powertrain Division at Continental, explained to Megatrends the various technologies implemented within the GTC, including Continental’s 48-Volt Eco Drive System. “By using a 48 Volt system, we don’t have the disadvantages like expensive insulation and protection measures against the high voltages,” he told Megatrends. The companies have recorded a reduction in CO2 emissions, down from the 114 grams that was originally achieved in the Ford Focus, to 95 grams – an overall decrease of around 17%. The 48-Volt Eco Drive System accounts for most of the fuel savings and emission improvements, although there are a number of other technologies that help it do so. Among the notable features of the GTC is Schaeffler’s electronic clutch. Markus Kneissler, Head of Development, Automated Clutches at Schaeffler, described how the innovative clutch works. “As soon as the drivers’ foot leaves the gas pedal, the clutch disengages the engine from the drivetrain. Up to now, only automatic gearboxes could do so,” stated Kneissler. The electronic clutch works to make the engine disconnect feature smooth and responsive, without the “delay in torque” that often came with previous drivetrain disconnecting systems. Once the engine has been disengaged and the vehicle continues to move, it enters coasting mode as the clutch allows it to maintain kinetic energy. “You can release the gas pedal, and then the engine is switched off and you enter coasting mode. If you press the gas pedal again, the engine is switched on, the clutch is closed again and you can accelerate nearly immediately,” explained Knorr. The GTC uses no fuel during coasting mode, which can be particularly valuable when travelling long distances whilst maintaining a consistent speed. Knorr is confident that during an average journey. Drivers could use the coasting mode for as much as 25% of the time. Therefore, the coasting feature could secure significant savings in fuel. Yet these potential savings cannot be specified in drive-cycle tests as they will vary with each journey taken. Megatrends | 75

Powertrain Innovation

Some of the energy saved during coasting mode is fed to power other features of the vehicle, such as the electrically heatable catalytic converter. Whilst the engine is off, stops burning fuel and goes cold, the catalytic converter stores energy that can quickly heat up the engine, reducing friction losses by up to 10%.

brought to mass commercialisation. “As the automation of the vehicle has just been ﬁnished, we have not driven it in real-world traffic,” said Knorr. “The 17% fuel saving may be different in realworld conditions, but with the help of coasting and other features, we are conﬁdent of a minimum of 20% fuel saving,” he added.

What are the drawbacks?

Vishal Sapru, Research Manager and Growth Consultant, Energy and Power Systems at Frost and Sullivan believes that many OEMs will not invest in a product before it has extensively proved itself through tests – both drive-cycle and real-world – and is certain to have financial benefits for them. With this uncertainty surrounding the figures of fuel saving, OEMs may be reluctant to invest in the GTC.

One of the main drawbacks of having so many technologies implemented in one vehicle is an increase in weight. Due to the various technologies that are implemented in the car, specifically electronic features, the savings in weight that would otherwise be available thanks to the small battery are lost. However, Knorr explained that "since the vehicle is only a few kilograms heavier, the fuel-saving features more than make up for it." This weight disadvantage will have a negative effect on the figures obtained during drive-cycle tests, he admitted, suggesting they are likely to differ to real-world figures. "We should find differences to that NEDC,” he said. The GTC still has a significant journey ahead of it before its technology can be 76 | Megatrends

A joint force Continental and Schaeffler are also conﬁdent that existing production lines for conventional cars do not need to be modiﬁed extensively to allow for the production of cars using the GTC’s technology. “Batteries are normally the biggest cost involved in hybrids,” said Knorr. “But not here. It a small 48 Volt battery, and should be easy to install in

cars, as well as fit into production lines.” What is more, OEMs are able to choose what GTC technologies and features they use by working with the suppliers. A unique flexibility comes into play here, not just in terms of how efficient the vehicles can be, but how much they will cost. Sapru believes that like consumers, OEMs enjoy having a choice when it comes to implementing new technologies in their cars, as they are able to control how much they spend on producing them, as well as how much consumers will pay for them at market. By working together on the GTC, Continental and Schaeffler have produced a portfolio of technologies that divide the efforts to reduce emissions and improve efficiency. They have described the GTC as a testament to having powertrain components that collectively work towards a shared goal. “One part of the system helps the other,” explained Knorr. He believes that overall, the combination of technologies is beneficial to all aspects of the vehicle. “With the integrative GTC approach, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. The formula 1 + 1 = 3 sums up this effect,” he concluded. automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

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Powertrain Innovation

AWD gains traction with the mainstream The future of AWD lies in e-axle hybridisation and disconnect technology, says Rob Rickell, GKN Driveline’s Senior Vice President of Engineering By Martin Kahl n early October 2014, GKN unveiled its Disconnect All-Wheel Drive System. The supplier claims to be the ﬁrst to market with a system suitable for A-, B- and C-segment vehicle platforms. The technology, which connects and disengages power to the rear axle on demand, can deliver a fuel economy improvement of up to 4% during steady state cruising, says GKN.

AWD differs from 4-wheel drive in that most AWD models are front-wheel drive-based passenger cars. JLR’s 78 | Megatrends

Range Rover Evoque was the ﬁrst vehicle built on a front-wheel drivebased platform to offer a disconnectable all-wheel drive (AWD) system. At the 2014 Paris motor show, Fiat displayed its new 500X, which is offered with AWD with a disconnecting rear axle; the 500X is built alongside the Jeep Renegade at Melﬁ, and the two B-segment crossovers use common componentry. And there will be many more, says Rob Rickell, Senior Vice President,

Engineering at GKN Driveline. “I would say about half the modern all-wheel drive platforms that we're working on at the moment will have Disconnect AWD technology - and that's in the Americas, Europe, China and Asia.” There are still some front-wheel drivebased AWD vehicles that don't have disconnect technology, but even though they are lighter and more efficient than older generation versions, their fuel consumption is 3-4% greater than those with disconnect, explains automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Powertrain Innovation

available to a mass market than it used to be.” In GKN’s system, AWD is always engaged from the outset. “Pulling onto a motorway, pulling out of a corner, or accelerating hard - that's when you need all-wheel drive,” says Rickell. “Starting off could be the highest torque event.

Rickell. “Disconnect gives you a fuel saving on top of the AWD capability, which means you're getting to a level of carbon emissions, of miles per gallon, which is much more acceptable when compared with a gasguzzling four-wheel drive vehicle many years ago. It makes all-wheel drive much more acceptable, much more automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Because you don't know what's going to happen, we always engage allwheel drive at start-up.

Then it can disconnect shortly afterwards if you're driving smoothly, straight ahead, and not under extreme conditions.” AWD disconnect systems are intelligent, which is part of their widespread appeal. “Whenever torque needs to be distributed over all four wheels, it will connect. And it connects within 300 milliseconds, which is effectively instantly,” says Rickell. “You don't even notice it – it’s seamless, totally quiet and you don't feel or hear anything. But if you're driving down a motorway at constant speed, you only need front-wheel drive. So that's when you're saving fuel.” AWD disconnect-type technology will appear on many new European cars designed in the Americas and Europe for global production, says Rickell. “China's take-up has been incredible. There are a number of companies we will be supplying in the future where they started with front-wheel drive and all-wheel drive variants, and have now Megatrends | 79

Powertrain Innovation gone to 100% all-wheel drive for the Chinese market. They're not doing a front-wheel drive any more. They're doing 100% all-wheel drive. You might think there would be a cheaper variant for China, but it's not true. The variant for China is the top end one, particularly when we're talking about European or American designed cars.” Hybridisation of the undriven axle In addition to the clear trend towards efficient disconnectable all-wheel drive, there is a notable rise in hybridisation of the undriven axle, says Rickell. GKN Driveline supplies the e-axle to PSA Peugeot Citroen’s HYbrid4 programme, which uses an electric axle on the rear and permanent front-wheel drive, allowing a disconnectable system through on-off control of the rear electric axle, as well as the ability to drive purely with the e-axle as a pure EV for city use. “The ﬁrst was Peugeot Citroen. There are a number of those coming. I can't say which they all are but there are a number of manufacturers, particularly in Europe and in America.” This includes some German sports cars. “That's interesting,” adds Rickell, “because they are traditionally rear-wheel drive cars, so they have the e-axle on the front.” E-axles will also appear on some forthcoming high volume passenger cars, mainly from European or American OEMs, which will also offer them in China. “I think it's an ongoing trend. It's not going to be dominant for the next ﬁve years, maybe not even the next ten years, but there will be a trend to increasing hybridisation. And if you're going to have a hybrid allwheel drive,

80 | Megatrends

The Range Rover Evoque was the first vehicle built on a FWD-based platform to offer a disconnectable AWD system

then why not do it with an e-axle rather than some other arrangement?” A pure electric axle on the rear or on the front saves on mechanical components, and offers considerable fuel savings. “Disconnect offers 3-4%. When you go to the e-axle you can be talking about a saving of up to 30%.” Fitment of e-axle hybridisation is partly industry-led but also guided by consumer demand. “If you can offer allwheel drive as well as hybridisation, you make it more interesting. But it also offers fuel efficiency. People who have driven or owned all-wheel drive cars realise just how nice they are to drive compared to pure front-wheel drive cars. Yes, it's being offered by the OEMs, but it's clearly being demanded by the market.”

Just as AWD variants of front-wheel drive models can be mechanical or use e-axle technology, so too can rearwheel drive models be converted to AWD by using e-axle technology on the front axle. But does this need to be designed in from the platform’s inception, or is it a “drop-in” technology? “It's best to be there from the start,” says Rickell. “But yes, the advantage of an e-axle is that you can add it without disrupting the whole of the platform more easily than you can a complete conventional all-wheel drive.” AWD disconnect, however, must be an integral part of the original design, because of the need for a prop shaft and a power take-up unit. “But that's the way we develop all those systems. It's been part of the whole programme as it was being developed right from the beginning.” Rickell is anticipating significant future growth in all-wheel drive. “It's been a great success, and continues to be a great success for us. At the moment, we're investing probably about 40% of my engineering budget, year on year, in all-wheel drive, so we're talking about £40-50m (US$63-78m) a year on development work on a number of future platforms,” says Rickell, adding that this includes generic product development and specific application work for existing customers. “It's a major part of our development. The other major part, of course, is hybridisation and electrification, which growing together thanks to e-all-wheel drive systems.”

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Navigation for ALL

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Manufacturing & Materials

Supply chain complexity needs logistics planning simplicity An emergency logistics strategy is the key to enabling higher risk supply chain strategies in support of a dynamic global manufacturing footprint, writes Robert Wright

he automotive supply chain is grappling with ever more complex and often contradictory challenges as vehicle manufacturers pursue increasingly diverse solutions to shifts in customer expectations and geographic demand. Robert Wright spoke to Brad Brennan, Managing Director of emergency logistics specialist, Evolution Time Critical, about the importance of logistics ﬂexibility and the growing recognition of how integrating premium freight into an optimised supply schedule can help to offset increased risk.

Increasing supply chain complexity is a key inﬂuence on the risk of failure for companies operating globalised production strategies. This is exactly the approach taken by the majority of vehicle manufacturers, who are seeking the most cost-effective and dependable supply to multiple locations worldwide, against a background of vehicle production volumes rising by close to 4% in 2014 against the prior year and automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

likely to continue growing. A greater focus on logistics planning is vital to safeguard operations as vehicle manufacturers seek to optimise processes and production.

problem – this enables more accurate forecasting, an appreciation of potentially fractious supply points and the ability to implement contingency plans.

“The automotive industry supply chain is grappling with a range of factors that together present a challenge significantly tougher than anything seen before,” says Brennan, who lists the challenges: a greater variance of models; increased personalisation of vehicle specifications; higher quality expectations from both manufacturers and their customers; and the breadth and global spread of Tier suppliers at many levels and unit cost. “These all combine to drive a clear requirement for the flexibility provided by a wide variety of freight options in order to safeguard operations,” he says.

Ultra-responsive logistics provision is able to bridge fractures in the automotive supply chain as a short- to medium-term response, but as operations become more convoluted a greater level of in-built contingency is required to ensure consistently robust protection of supply channels, explains Brennan. “Fortunately, the importance of dependable supply chain activity has received much greater attention at senior executive level in the automotive industry over the last 18 months in particular, prompted by events such as the Bardarbunga eruptions which serve as a reminder of the impact of the 2010 ‘ash cloud’.” Brennan’s reference to Bardarbunga is in the context of the ongoing seismic crisis at the Icelandic volcano, which began erupting in August this year and continues to be a potential threat to air traffic. This sharper focus – coupled with the subsequent improvement in

One major element currently limiting ﬂexibility is the issue of conﬂicting lead times between suppliers. “This is why a vehicle manufacturers’ visibility of its supply chain operations is crucial. OEMs ideally need to identify a potential issue before it becomes a

Megatrends | 83

Manufacturing & Materials understanding of the challenges – has allowed logistics to suitably adapt so as to mirror production strategies. “As the ﬁnancial and reputational cost of supply chain failure has become more widely recognised, so too has the potential for logistics as an enabler of higher risk strategies that allow greater efficiency throughout the production and assembly process.” The greater importance placed on dependable freight is driving an alternate utilisation of traditional techniques. Brennan cites premium freight as an example. This has previously been regarded as a contingency measure used only in emergency situations. Now, he says, it is increasingly factored in to the shipment schedules for high-value components such as head-up displays. In this example, dependable delivery and consistency of supply is more important than the initial freight cost. “The cost of individual unit breakage is also a concern,” he concedes, “but it is awareness of both the cost of failure to deliver on time and the limited availability of reserve stocks of components such as these that drives in-built contingency for premium freight in the ﬁrst instance.” The ability to develop complex supply chains that are also robust is borne therefore from a greater understanding of the nuances of freight and supply chain continuity, cost of failure and the measures required to safeguard optimised operational efficiency. As

84 | Megatrends

and knowledge of awareness processes becomes more widespread throughout the automotive industry, logistics strategies are able to accommodate greater risk because total supply chain failure is safeguarded against through effective contingency. This increase in understanding, says Brennan, also allows for further development of logistics strategies in line with industry needs. Vehicle sales are increasing globally but the demand is not evenly distributed. This has led to announcements by major vehicle manufacturers of major new plants in China and Mexico, and also intensiﬁcation of production at existing locations, including the adoption of three-shift, 24-hour production. “This places a direct strain on the supply chain as suppliers contend with potentially prohibitive lead times, dwindling buffer stocks and the sheer physical transport capacity required to meet the increased demand generated by the manufacturing process.” Brennan believes the challenge is compounded by the fact that supply chain activity has already become more complex because of the need to react to other recent production trends. Fluctuating supply requirements or diversifying model variance, for example, place added pressure on supply chain links – especially if OEM ﬁxed forecasts become inconsistent and are at odds with the Tier 1 or 2 schedules that often work to longer lead times.

As greater risk is accepted in pursuit of optimal production efficiency, the margin for error is reduced and potential issues are inevitable. With effective contingency, supply chain haemorrhage can be countered and impact reduced. “Emergency logistics and premium freight is increasingly recognised as being the solution to provide this buffer, reducing both the likelihood of complete supply chain failure and the potential damage if the worst does happen,” concludes Brennan.

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

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Manufacturing & Materials

Joined up thinking - the art of vehicle lightweighting Joining a combination of lightweight materials poses new challenges - and opportunities - for suppliers. There’s more to lightweighting than material choice alone, as Magna’s CTO, Swamy Kotagiri, tells Freddie Holmes

ith government legislation putting vehicle manufacturers and suppliers on a deadline to raise fuel efficiency and lower carbon dioxide emissions, lightweighting technology is taking further strides forward.

Lightweight aluminium bodies and ultra-high strength steels are among a variety of new materials and manufacturing techniques that are enabling the automotive industry to replace traditional parts with lighter alternatives. Until recently, lightweighting technology has struggled to take off in the volume segment, but the launch of the Ford F150 will see a signiﬁcant deviation to this trend; its radical aluminium body construction has cut out 700lbs from its the best-selling pick-up. But it isn’t as simple as hacking away excess bodyfat in the quest for leaner bodies; the challenge continues when it comes to joining these new materials together, as Swamy Kotagiri, Chief Technical Officer at Magna, told Megatrends.

Challenges of joining One of the challenges of using a variety of lightweight materials is the joining technology, and how to join them together in volume at a speed at which the industry is accustomed. This is why Magna thinks ahead to the manufacturing process before designing, as Kotagiri explains: “I think the most important thing is to have the strategy ahead of time, to define what the different materials, joints and slip planes are going to be and how the vehicle goes together. For example, we could be designing an aluminium body where the important thing would be to look at the different combination of joints, whether it’s a two-metal thickness joint or three-metal thickness joint. “You may also want to minimise the variety of rivets so that you don’t have 12 different types being handled, for example, and if you have this in mind you can minimise the cost significantly, rather than just design it and then go through the manufacturing process later.” Legacy constraints are one consideration for Magna, says Kotagiri. Another is corrosion: “Aluminium and steel is one challenge, but if you take it up to the next level which is magnesium and steel, the potential difference is so much more and so the corrosion issues become further magnified.” Joining techniques lightweighting

Swamy Kotagiri

86 | Megatrends

driven

Lightweighting, Kotagiri says, will drive new joining techniques as the product is evolving: “For example, friction welding was not as common as it is today, and we have been seeing a lot of one-sided joining methods. With a

spot weld you need to have access from both sides, and in the future as you join castings for different types of components you might only need access from one side to join the two materials. There is a big push coming up with different joining methods. I think it will get to a point where it will be as common as how we make steel bodies today.” The end consumer will not see how the car has been joined or what mechanism has been used. In the end, it comes down to how it feels when they are driving the car, or whether it is “cheaper at the gas station or not,” Kotagiri says. Material merits The joining process is deﬁned by which materials are being used, and one of the key things Magna believes is that the three factors of a vehicle’s design, segment and region, will dictate which material is used, with what alloy and in which part. A vehicle with a performance requirement to have a lower centre of gravity or to have a better weight-split between the front and the rear would provide one directive on where materials are used, and how. “The premium you would pay in this case to have a lightweight roof would be a little bit more than just general lightweighting because we have to keep the centre of gravity down. Obviously there are speciﬁc advantages of one material over another, for example one kilogram of aluminium will have so much more energy absorption than steel. But, I don’t think there is an answer to say that one material is best, and that was one of the reasons why we looked at a multimaterial concept for keeping lightweighting in mind. automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Manufacturing & Materials

Multi-Material Lightweight Vehicle concept

just over 23% weight without reducing performance or durability.”

Ford and Magna recently unveiled their jointly-developed Multi-Material Lightweight Vehicle (MMLV) concept; the MMLV uses advanced materials to explore future weight-reduction solutions.

During the process Magna approached the US Department of Energy, and worked with Ford side-by-side as an OEM partner. Seven prototype vehicles were built, some used as demonstrators and some for durability and crash testing, which they passed.

“One of the key drivers for us is that we have such a broad base of products we offer in a car,” Kotagiri told Megatrends. “The features in a car are signiﬁcantly increasing over time, and there is a pressure from the industry to keep weight down. The idea was not to take certain materials as the target to use throughout the vehicle, but to reduce the most weight out of the platform chosen, keeping in mind the premium of parts. Overall we were able to reduce

“We asked the question: Where do we require stiffness, where do we require strength and how do we integrate different components. Based on all of these constraints, we used roughly two-thirds aluminium using casting, extrusion, and tapping. The remaining 33% used different processes of steel; hot stamping, cold stamping and so on. The intention was to pick materials, assembly and forming processes that

are available today, and we ended up taking the 2013 Fusion and brought it to the weight of the Fiesta.” Cost of lightweighting After a vehicle has been lightened, most of the reduction in weight is then taken up by new features that keep adding themselves to a car, whether it is for comfort, safety or convenience features. Looking at cars from 2010 to the current range, overall vehicle weights have not dropped significantly, Kotagiri comments. “If you look at the content that cars have now compared to 2010 it is significantly more, so what you’re substituting weight for will define the premium you’re willing to pay. There isn’t an answer to say that lightweighting is cheaper, but the obvious objective is to take away as much weight as you can without adding a premium.” Varied strategy

33 watermelons weigh about 739 pounds, almost equal to the weigh Ford saved from its current 2014 F-150 Supercrew 4x4 Lariat

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Lightweighting is one of a number of possible strategies available to vehicle manufacturers seeking to reduce CO2 emissions. Magna’s broad portfolio of capabilities and its global reach mean it can offer a variety of solutions that include lightweight metals, composites and smart systems; concluding, Kotagiri says he believes it is this which makes Magna more than just a typical Tier 1 supplier. Megatrends | 87

Manufacturing & Materials

Designing the future of travel – in 3D Leading 3D designers were tasked with creating the future of travel. Their creations will astound and inspire, writes CGTrader’s Justė Šemetaitė

GTrader recently challenged its 1st more than 100,000 3D ( designers to create “The Vehicle of futu Best 3D re v ehic the Future”. The Future Vehicles le) Challenge was aimed at individuals who can’t help but wonder what the future supercars will look like, how we’ll travel from point A to point B, and what new and captivating features these vehicles will possess. The Future Vehicles Challenge asked individuals to design a computer-generated 3D model of a fantasy concept vehicle.

“For years, individuals and companies alike have been Stefan creating and developing Gales w a award, new technologies and with his s chosen as th LOUIS e winne concepts for the car of the XIV LE r GRAND of the Best 3 future – it’s an area that D Future , a styli sh unde gets a lot of interest, from the young rworld m Vehicles Mod el achine. child to the car enthusiast,” said Marius technologically Kalytis, Chief Executive of CGTrader. it is already entirely possible to Based in Vilnius, Lithuania, CGTrader have a part car, part drone, part plane is a fast growing community and parked in your garage. It may sound There were some marketplace for 3D graphics and like an exaggeration, but only because amazingly innovative designs printing designs, and is backed by it’s a completely new concept to us. We among hundreds of entries. Below is Practica Capital and Intel Capital. “The don’t realise that when we’re in an a list of the winning designs agreed Future Vehicles Challenge was created aeroplane, we’re basically ﬂying in a upon by CGTrader’s judging to encourage individuals to share their drone, since drones are based on the committee. There were some heated creative and forward thinking designs,” same technology. arguments about what to include, so said Kalytis, “while bringing together we encourage readers to go to the other like-minded individuals to further Designing a future vehicle is a Future Vehicles Challenge page to enhance what the 3D design liberating experience, since there are see the complete catalogue of community has to offer.” no rules and no expectations. The submissions. All can be downloaded, designers were asked to not limit and many can be printed with a 3D themselves to the conventional printer. means of transport, and to explore all possible methods of travelling – 2nd 3D 3rd ) t from electric s e l e (B vehic (Bes t 3D rickshaws, to twofutur re e veh futu icle) wheeled part-drone, part-car monsters, or even flying trams. ign, the s e d Any computers inar’ ing ﬂying tlu Akp u m M im generated 3D k n -s a e Ok dun ster, is a la model of a fantasy b d n a S . concept vehicle The New Moto Concept by machine Astiero is a There was welcomed to one-wheeled motorcycle conc ept. are so many mechanical unravel the future of innovations and crazy inventions that travel. 88 | Megatrends

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Manufacturing & Materials

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automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

k Jetpac Megatrends | 89

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Manufacturing & Materials

Steel + Aluminium = Lighter Weight Material substitution will play a critical role in meeting emissions and fuel economy targets, writes Abey Abraham, Project Director at Ducker Worldwide

s the countdown to 1 January 2025 continues its relentless march towards the United States mandated emissions (163 grams of CO2 per mile) and fuel economy (54.5mpg) targets, the decisions light vehicle OEMs have to make are no less agonising. The emissions and fuel economy targets that OEMs are faced with for any new light vehicle sold in the US impacts the global fabric of engineering, design and supply chain, and has engineers literally measuring weight savings not in pounds or kilos but in grams. It has undoubtedly increased the complexity and cost of introducing the next generation of vehicles to our driveways.

The OEMs have a plethora of options from which to choose in order to achieve the mandates, including the use of advanced low rolling resistant tyres to engine downsizing, such as replacing a big block V8 with a direct injected, turbo-charged, small displacement inline-4. OEMs are willing to evaluate anything that can help bridge the gap from today’s CO2 numbers to the required 163 grams of CO2 per mile. However, industry experts believe that it will be a balancing act between three main areas including vehicle weight, aerodynamics as well as powertrain efficiency improvements. Ultimately, what really sets one option apart from another is its cost-to-beneﬁt ratio; how much it will cost the OEM to improve MPG or reduce CO2. Ducker believes that by 2025, North American light vehicles will likely incorporate the following characteristics or some combination thereof: • 75% of all light vehicles will have

start / stop technology

• 70% will have advanced direct

injection gasoline engines

• 68% will have a seven, eight or automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

CAFE Mandates will be met by:

Lower Vehicle Weight

Lower Aerodynamic Drag

nine-speed (or greater) transmission • 65% of engines will be turbocharged • Average curb weight will decline by 10-12% to approximately 3,500 pounds (1,590kg) Evaluating options Engineering teams have a massive undertaking in evaluating options and determining the ﬁnal route to production. Material substitution will play a critical role in decreasing vehicle weight, particularly advanced high strength steel (AHSS) and aluminium. Fundamentally, OEMs will continue to address the following questions when selecting the best path forward to meet mandates: 1. What will give me the biggest bang for my buck? 2.What are the costs to implement the proposed changes? 3.Does the supply base have the manpower and technical know-how required to serve multiple high volume applications? 4.What are my competitors doing and is it working? 5.How will these changes impact my customer? OEMS will look to their engineering teams to provide insight and

Improved Propulsion Losses

recommendations on how to best meet their design desires. Evaluation criteria that the engineering teams will assess during the design process as it relates to weight and material selection may include: • Cost for weight savings - The cost for saving weight is not

limited to the material being substituted; overall costs need to be investigated, such as cost to convert production lines, training, joining etc. - Supply Chain / Logistics (global platforms) - As more OEMs turn to global platforms, the availability of advanced materials may be challenging, often requiring multiple variations to accommodate local availability of speciﬁc materials

• After Sales - Service / Repair - An OEM’s burden doesn’t end at

the point of sale; there needs to be a sound system in place to address sustainability in the event the vehicle needs service work or after collision repair; particularly as AHSS and aluminium penetration grows, so too is the challenge of repair facilities that have the know-how and equipment to adequately handle the repair work Megatrends | 91

Manufacturing & Materials Materials: A beneﬁcial equation OEMs tend to be more tolerant towards greater investments within the powertrain versus spending on other weight saving methods such as materials substitution. The image below depicts qualitatively an OEM’s propensity to spend more on powertrain improvements vs. all other means to save weight. OEMs willingness to spend for one pound of weight savings $ 5

All others

Powertrain

However, Ducker Worldwide has tracked light vehicle material content for nearly 20 years; recent studies indicate that OEMs in North America are increasingly turning to the use of AHSS and aluminium to meet their weight savings goals. AHSS utilisation levels are on track to surpass 480 pounds per vehicle by 2025. Aluminium growth is tremendous in its own rights; by 2025, aluminium in all forms (rolled, extruded, cast, forged) will be over 500 pounds per vehicle. Rolled aluminium content within light vehicles is expected to reach 150 pounds per vehicle by 2025, up from less than 15 pounds per vehicle in 2012. Steel and iron in its various forms together account for over 50% of curb weight today, while all light vehicle aluminium forms total ~10%. Steel will continue to account for the largest share of material content in light vehicles for the foreseeable future, while aluminium’s rapid growth rate is primarily due to aluminium sheet for closure applications.

application and speciﬁc engineering challenge. Steel continues to excel in applications that require high strength, while aluminium is preferred for applications that are stiffness governed.

Moving forward

Both the aluminium and steel industries are hard at work developing their ‘next generation’ of products that are stronger, lighter and even more cost effective. Anticipated changes to look out for within the coming years from the steel industry are the roll out of press hardened steels that offer increased tensile strengths with lower elongations as well as “generation three” steels. Generation three steels are expected to offer even greater strengths than most of the current ultra-high strength steels. The drop in price is associated with its ability to be cold formed. The aluminium industry is also developing more formable heat treated alloys such as 6451, and scrap friendly alloys for easier closed loop recycling, and new coatings to improve adhesive bonding and paint adherences.

The steel and aluminium industries have transformed themselves from basic raw material suppliers to being viewed as integral partners. They are working to anticipate OEM pain-points and becoming solutions providers. For instance, raw material suppliers are proactively approaching OEM customers with light weight design alternatives during industry technology show case events and design challenge events.

AHSS and aluminium utilisation is forecasted to reach unprecedented penetration levels, and both are likely to be essential pieces of the puzzle to meet mandates in the years to come. OEMs will continue to exercise their options to achieving mandates by essentially balancing powertrain efficiencies, aerodynamics and light weighting. Whichever way you cut it, Steel + Aluminium = Weight Savings.

Material and body engineers have been working with steel and aluminium for over a century. However, the increased utilisation of AHSS and aluminium in light vehicles produces a new set of downstream challenges that will need to be addressed. Repairing, repainting and replacing various parts will be necessary, including the tools used and the training of employees. In spite of challenges, both aluminium and steel are the preferred forerunners to many of the other light weight alternatives for high volume use in light vehicles.

The right materials for the right applications Material utilisation trends The level of research and innovation that the materials industry has witnessed over the last 24-36 months is nothing short of astounding. Both the steel and aluminium industries are hard at work developing innovative ways to save weight and cost, beneﬁting both the OEMs and the consumer. The table below highlights examples of products from both the steel and aluminium industries where the right material was designed and selected for the speciﬁc 92 | Megatrends

Part

Steel: Control Arm

Aluminium: Shock Tower

Material Substitution Challenge

Control arm design that is lighter and stronger yet lower cost than incumbent forged aluminium design

Shock tower design that is lighter yet stiffer than incumbent stamped and welded steel design

Lighter Weight | Lower Cost | Expanded supply base | Stronger

Lighter Weight | Part Consolidation | Stiffer | Lower Cost

Image

Beneﬁts of Material Conversion

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Retail (R)evolution

Automotive sales and marketing needs to change as ‘Gen-Y’ comes of age – and here’s why The traditional model of face-to-face selling, haggling over prices, and upselling extras must change in the age of multi-channel retail and the “always on” consumer, says Luke Griffiths, Head of Marketing Solutions EMEA at eBay Enterprise

y 2025, “Generation Y” – the socalled “Millennials” born between 1980 and 1998 – will account for 75% of the car-buying market. Yet they are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the idea of car ownership.

Financial concerns – from the cost of the car itself to ongoing costs such as fuel, insurance, and maintenance, as well as worries about job market instability and student debt burdens – play a big part in this. That young professionals tend to migrate to metropolitan areas with strong public transportation networks and thriving vehicle-sharing and taxi services such as ZipCar and Uber is another factor. Meanwhile, car ownership is not the aspirational status symbol it once was. If you asked Millennials to name 20 prominent brands, car marques would be unlikely to feature prominently. This ambivalence towards car ownership is encapsulated in the declining number of young people with driving licences. But for all this, a major factor in Generation Y’s reluctance to part with its cold, hard cash in exchange for a new or used car is the simple fact that the engrained process and experience of buying a car is positively archaic in comparison to the way in which they make other purchases. Millennials have grown up with computers as a familiar and increasingly integral part of everyday life. Internet research and online shopping are second nature, as they ﬂit between sites to do their homework before committing to a purchase. In fact, data from Google suggests that Millennials will visit an average of 25 different sites during the automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

painstaking process of identifying the right car for them. These are technologically savvy buyers, used to making purchases quickly and without hassle. Automotive retailers and marketers need to acknowledge their desire for a straightforward, transparent experience. Millennials want all the relevant information about a car – including model options, pricing, and financing – to be available online, in a clear, consistent, and easily-compared form, or at least to be delivered quickly and concisely by dealership staff. The sales techniques traditionally employed by car dealerships, geared towards closing a face-to-face sale on the showroom floor, are inappropriate to Millennials’ approach to shopping. Too many are failing to adapt accordingly by, for instance, developing mobile applications, engaging with customers over social media, or conducting systematic email follow-up with customers when they leave the showroom. Millenials also typically demonstrate lower levels of brand loyalty than older consumers. Given that most people buy a car only once every five to ten (or more) years, why would a dealer not do all they can to ensure a customer comes back to them next time? The performance and experience of the car itself will be a major factor, but the sales experience and service matter too. This is not just about Millennials, though. The growth of multi-channel retail has made working out where any sale has come from – and, therefore,

how to generate more sales – exponentially more complicated. Understanding customer behaviour across devices and platforms means looking at more than just the “last click” that led them to the point of purchase, and requires audience segmentation to be based on more sophisticated criteria than, for instance, age and gender. Making the full wealth of customer information gathered both on- and offline – from basic proﬁles and locations to purchase histories, and device usage – available to sales and marketing staff at all times, will enable them to give better recommendations, close more sales, and engender stronger loyalty. Somebody who bought their last car aged 27 may have a very different set of priorities when they come to make their next purchase aged 34 – pushing them to upgrade their sports car would be a waste of everyone’s time when they want a midrange wagon to meet the practicalities of life with young children. Or maybe not – the key is not to generalise, but to apply insights on an individual basis to make the sales and purchasing process better for everyone. Attitudes towards car ownership are changing rapidly, and the disparity between the customer experience of buying a car the wider retail landscape is accelerating this change. Marketing departments need to keep pace. Equipping staff across all aspects of your business to collect and interpret customer insight and tailor marketing campaigns based on what, where, when, and how customers are purchasing is the only way to maximise marketing ROI and reduce wasted spending. Megatrends | 93

Retail (R)evolution

The rise of the sharing economy The UK government’s interest in car sharing is crucial: What happens in London is likely to be replicated ‘in pretty well every major city in the years to come’. By Megan Lampinen

he rise of the so-called ‘sharing economy’ has attracted the particular attention of the UK government, where an official review will investigate the potential beneﬁts and risks this approach poses for many traditional industries. For the automotive sector in particular, growing interest in a sharing economy could revolutionise traditional vehicle ownership concepts.

"Consumers are choosing to pay to use rather than to pay to own," explained Keaney. "You see that in property and in vehicles, and you can see it developing as a very major trend."

The British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association (BVRLA) believes that car rental and car clubs are already playing an integral role in the rise of this sharing economy and have considerable potential for future growth, provided they receive the right sort of support from the government. Megatrends spoke to BVRLA Chief Executive Gerry

For the automotive industry, this has been furthered by mass urbanisation, with a growing number of people living in major cities. "Major cities then struggle with congestion and pollution," Keaney said. "It's becoming less attractive to own a car if you live in a city. It's either sitting on the road or in your drive because it's just not needed."

94 | Megatrends

Keaney on the forces behind the rise of a sharing economy within the automotive sector. Pay to use vs pay to own

As a result, interest in car rental or car sharing clubs is growing. "It suits a metro/urban lifestyle," added Keaney. The development of in-car technology like keyless entry and connectivity has made this set-up even more convenient, he observes. Car share: embryonic but growing At the moment, London is the second largest car sharing city in the world, following only New York, though the segment as a whole remains small. "The numbers are still embryonic, with about 2,000-3,000 cars on the road in schemes, but it's growing very fast," said Keaney. Over the past few years, car clubs have been growing from small, entrepreneurial operations with just one or two cars, or eco-friendly cars, to become a "whole operation with major players."

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Retail (R)evolution A growing number of leading OEMs have become involved in the sector, with the likes of BMW teaming with Sixt and Mercedes-Benz teaming with Europcar. "These schemes are spreading across major metro areas, mainly in Europe and North America. You have major players that now see this whole car share phenomenon as another channel for them to go to market, and with established car rental operators. It's going to attract major companies as it grows in volumes, and is a good opportunity for companies to showcase their technology," he added. Rental/leasing developments The rental sector is a very mature market in the UK and has been attempting to reinvigorate itself. "It has been innovative in setting up car club operations, positioning themselves as mobility providers and solution providers. We're in discussion at the moment with Transport for London (TfL) in terms of how rental operators can facilitate the development of the ultra low-emission zone in London," observed Keaney.

cleanest cars with the newest technology. This, said Keaney, makes it of great interest for broader use. "Positioning rental through car share and car club operations is of great interest to TfL, which is looking at how to use the capacities of rental," he noted. Importantly, he added, "What happens in London will eventually happen in pretty well every major city in the years to come." As for leasing, companies here are becoming increasingly involved with providing personal mobility services to individuals. "You want someone to provide a bespoke solution in terms of travel requirement. Leasing companies have all the competencies to deliver that. They are moving from providing a corporate company car to providing personal mobility solutions for an individual," Keaney stated. Overall, the BVRLA is pushing the lease/rental sector as one ideally placed to inﬂuence the government's

clean agenda. "These fleets tend to be cleanest, and the newest cars, and the most fuel efficient," said Keaney. He wants to see the government look at putting the right level of incentive behind encouraging more companies to put more green cars into their fleets. As for the type of 'green', he believes the industry will answer. "We're very active in campaigning for incentives for low-emission vehicles. It's pretty well governed by the consumer. Consumers will determine whether they want a VW up! gasoline engine or a BMW i3 EV. We are active in terms of putting the full range of vehicles on to our fleets." However, the transformation of the leasing/rental and car share segments and the growth of the sharing economy within the automotive sector still faces a number of obstacles. In addition to incentives, regulations need to be hammered out, governing everything from insurance to safety levels. "It takes time to establish itself," cautioned Keaney.

The rental ﬂeet is the UK’s most sustainable ﬂeet, consisting of the

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Megatrends | 95

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Retail (R)evolution

Catering for connected consumers? Get yourself connected! Successfully deploying advanced technologies is increasingly important for meeting the requirements of the ‘connected consumer’, writes Tim Smith, Group Strategy Director at GForces

s ever-increasing numbers of consumers take to the web in search of new products and services, the Internet - together with its associated digital media, tools and devices - has fast become the key marketing medium for car retailers and OEMs. To market themselves effectively in the digital space, brands need to connect with online audiences, both to reinforce their corporate identities and to promote their products and services.

A host of different digital marketing services is on offer to automotive retailers, from dealer management services and online auctions, to SEO and social media. Only by employing a total approach to digital marketing can brands beneﬁt from access to the comprehensive range of marketing services necessary to deliver highly targeted and compelling campaigns.

There’s no doubt that digital is an essential component of a retailer’s marketing and sales strategy, and the ‘digital dealership’ in particular may well come to surpass consumers’ traditional forms of interaction with automotive brands and products. The challenge for retailers and manufacturers online is to connect the dots of a customer’s purchase and ownership journey, ﬁrst piquing consumers’ interest with effective marketing to generate leads, then converting these leads into sales, before ﬁnally maintaining a lasting retailer-customer relationship to deliver aftersales services and further sales in the future. Total Digital Marketing Digital strategies need solid foundations upon which digital tools can be based and integrated, helping retailers connect the ownership

journey. These interconnected technologies are helping dealers fundamentally change the way they represent themselves online via their digital dealerships. The approach taken must cater effectively for the rapidly growing use of smartphones and tablets, sales of which are predicted to outstrip sales of desktop PCs for the first time in 2015. More than 40% of web visits now originate on mobile devices, and data from GForces’ own clients shows that in the past 12 months alone, visits from mobile and tablet devices have increased by around 10%. Responsive web design is particularly important to the modern digital dealership, and has significant benefits over traditional non-scaling platforms. A responsive website offers consumers increased usability and the same experience, whether on a traditional desktop computer, laptop, tablet or smartphone. Catering to the needs of these connected consumers, responsive web design focuses on enhancing the user’s experience. For the retailer, the benefits begin with the ease of maintenance of the site itself, as everything runs off a single domain, and SEO benefits are also accrued as any redirect issues are eliminated with a single URL. General Motors has migrated more than 160 of its franchised dealers in the Middle East across to GForces’ responsive-design web platform, ensuring that all of its dealer websites benefit from a uniform solution and enhanced customer usability, all structured to be fully market-specific.

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Megatrends | 97

Retail (R)evolution Videos also play a significant role in connected consumers’ research and purchases, and incorporating rich media assets into websites can significantly help retailers market their products effectively. Home pages that include video are 53% more likely to be on the first page of a Google search, and research shows that videos can keep visitors on a site for up to two minutes longer, on average. The addition of 360-degree videos of vehicle interiors and exteriors can supplement or potentially replace online image libraries, offering customers a dynamic in-showroom experience from the comfort of their own home, or while on the move. Such technology also enables potential customers to conduct their research out-of-hours, which is especially important given that as much as 30% of dealer website visits occur during this time. Progress in out-of-hours contact still needs to be made; even in the mature retail environment in the UK, only 5.5% of the Top 200 dealer

98 | Megatrends

groups currently operate a 24/7 contact service. Enabling consumers to search on their own terms is a vital component in connecting customers with the products they desire. Television has long been the missing link in retailers’ digital marketing. GForces has entered an exclusive partnership with Sky Media to utilise its revolutionary AdSmart service, which for the ﬁrst time in UK TV history allows national channels to offer highly localised, targeted advertising. The service shows how traditional marketing methods can be enhanced by technology to deliver a highly targeted approach consistent with the ethos underpinning modern digital customer engagement. Connecting the conversion process Until retailers and manufacturers sell cars online, leads are the main online currency in the automotive world – the more leads a retailer can generate, the greater the chances of selling vehicles. For time-poor and easily distracted

online shoppers, providing relevant information is crucial to minimising the on- to off-line disparity, and the more information that retailers make available, the less reason consumers will have to leave the site in order to ﬁnd the details they require. Partnering with the best technology and service providers in the industry ensures that retailers are provided with the widest range of high quality tools available in the market. Third party products can be integrated into a digital platform, adding value to the retailer’s web presence and the interactions it supports. Experience shows that conversion rates can double when consumers read a complimentary review. New car conﬁgurators and trade-in valuations also help to connect the various elements of consumers’ online experience. Finance calculators for car loans and motor insurance can help to keep visitors on retailers’ sites for longer and enable potential customers to quickly work out the affordability of a particular

automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Retail (R)evolution model, enhancing the user experience and improving the chances of a sale. Due to Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) guidelines, car retailers in the UK also need to ensure that the ﬁnancial products and services they offer are completely transparent, so demonstrating this online is increasingly important. Finance calculators can convert as much as 30% of enquiries to sale when used effectively. Replicating the showroom experience via a digital dealership is not simply a matter of good quality imagery and plentiful information – automotive retailing relies on effective communication between dealer and customer. Today’s connected consumers expect rapid responses to enquiries, and retailers need to consider a number of different contact options such as phone, contact forms, 24/7 live chat and even bespoke video, to ensure the browsing and enquiry experience is as responsive as possible. With so many digital marketing options at their ﬁngertips, it’s more important than ever that retailers train their staff effectively. It’s the application of people, process and technology that enables retailers to increase the speed of change in their business and help new systems to deliver outstanding results. As customers take control of the purchasing process via innovations in the digital dealership, sales teams’ behaviour must adapt accordingly. Only by fully understanding both the practical mechanics of the new platforms, and the implications and potential for driving sales, can retailers get the buy-in from their employees necessary to truly maximise their digital marketing. Coming full circle Fast responses to enquiries – on- and offline – are equally important when carrying forward the customer relationship into the aftersales arena. According to independent research commissioned by GForces, 42% of customers said they would take their service business elsewhere if an enquiry was not answered within four hours. Reinforcing the value of online interaction, 62% of consumers would automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

prefer to book a vehicle service or MOT without ever speaking to a retailer’s aftersales team over the phone. This is an area where forward-thinking retailers and manufacturers in the US have led the charge for the digital dealership. Of the Top 50 retailers in the US, 64% have an online service booking facility, versus 45% in the UK. The US has far more advanced retailermanufacturer digital relationships, but the UK is catching up quickly and brand-wide network solutions, such as those recently instigated by Vauxhall, are becoming increasingly common.

for retailers to neglect aftersales, but with overhead absorption rates of over 50%, aftersales is more important than ever. Integrating digital communications platforms to increase service-bay utilisation and meet customer expectations is vital for generating revenue and retaining customers.

Indeed, such is the maturity of the US model that consumers are now able to complete the purchasing process entirely online. The UK market is following suit, as the technology to support the purchasing decision, such as finance, trade-in values and credit checks, becomes ever-more sophisticated. Buyers in the UK are now reaching the point where they’re confident to purchase big ticket items online, and manufacturer-backed trials such as ‘Fiat Click’ have already tested the possibilities for online fulfilment.

As an example, one of GForces’ clients received 72 service enquiry forms in the three months before going live with online service bookings. In the ﬁrst three months of this year, that same company had increased online bookings for servicing and workshop work to more than 250.

Aftersales is a core part of automotive retailers’ business, not to mention a signiﬁcant source of proﬁt. With so much focus on new car sales, it’s easy

Successfully deploying advanced technologies is increasingly important for meeting the requirements of the ‘connected consumer’. The evolving challenge for retailers is to make the most of the advanced web-based marketing tools now on offer, while also training their staff and adjusting their processes to use make best use of the leads that result. Megatrends | 99

Retail (R)evolution

What can vehicle manufacturers learn from retailers? Dealers must extend their customer relationship strategies beyond new car buyers, writes Farzad Henareh, European Managing Director, Stericycle ExpertSOLUTIONS

nsuring customer loyalty is the challenge facing vehicle manufacturers across the world. Loyalty, or lack thereof, is a growing problem in the industry, resulting from a change in customer buying habits. The moment a car owner sells their car, they become yet another lapsed customer, and their business is lost. So, what can car manufacturers do to win back some of these lapsed buyers, while maintaining ongoing custom?

It’s often the case that cars and their subsequent owners are unknown to manufacturers due to a second or even third sale. This portrays a stark picture of the current market that manufacturers are facing, since there is no easy way of contacting these new owners once a vehicle has been sold on. However, it’s not all doom and gloom; if manufacturers do start thinking like retailers, they can win these customers back. Car buying habits are changing. There is more competition and fewer young people buying due to increasing urbanisation and public transport services. Manufacturers need to focus on keeping customers for as long as possible – and to do this, they need to incentivise them. There are some very attractive loyalty schemes currently available in the automotive market. For example, Kia’s offer of a seven year 100 | Megatrends

(Europe) or even a ten year (US) warranty, as opposed to the industry average four-year warranty, is certainly an enticing offer. It comes with caveats, of course, but few can argue with the initial attraction. Yet manufacturers could still go one step further.

business than to retain current clients, and helps increase proﬁtability. In some cases, satisfaction won’t be enough to keep a customer from leaving the brand – businesses need to offer them something that goes beyond the usual service offering.

Lifetime warranties that extend to second buyers are an obvious way of driving business back to dealerships and lengthening the dealershipcustomer relationship. So great is the second-hand car market that it seems counter-productive to ignore it, which is currently the case with many leading car manufacturers. If they are to tap into this market, they need to be constantly asking themselves: what’s in it for the customer?

One brand currently leading the way in this regard is GM’s UK brand, Vauxhall. At present, Vauxhall offers a credit/debit card-based loyalty scheme which enables customers to gradually accumulate points that can be spent to reduce the cost of servicing. This is groundbreaking for the industry.

This may seem like the mentality of a retailer, but that is exactly what is required if leading brands want to keep their customers loyal. Loyalty schemes are a great way for companies to improve retention and get to know their clients better. Loyalty schemes monitor customer behaviour at certain touch points, which will help car manufacturers tailor their offering according to personal preferences and interests. Apart from a more strategic approach in customer interaction, loyalty schemes can also translate into substantial savings. It is signiﬁcantly more expensive to bring in new

Understandably, competitors are keeping a keen eye on this new scheme. Should it be deemed a success by the industry, it is likely that a number of other loyalty schemes by leading car manufacturers will appear – no-one wants to be missing a trick. Vauxhall has already signalled the start of the race, and those who wait will ﬁnd themselves forever playing catch up, and losing customers along the way. Retailers have led the way, and provided manufacturers with a strategic approach and a few ideas to retain customers. If they can learn from the success of loyalty schemes in the retail sector, OEMs could see a dramatic improvement in customer loyalty and repeat business. automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

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Safety

Go Safe: a supplier's message to its ﬂeet contractors

Henkel India’s Go Safe road safety initiative is the first step in an effort to introduce fundamental changes in fleet behaviour in India – and beyond. David Isaiah speaks to the head of Henkel India to find out more

he World Health Organization’s (WHO) Global status report on road safety 2013 estimates that more than 231,000 people are killed in road traffic crashes in India every year. Vulnerable road users, like motorcyclists, cyclists and pedestrians account for around half of these fatalities. This high number is due to a combination of factors.

On Indian roads, one sees a mix of highspeed vehicles, commercial vehicles, and vulnerable road users. Combine this with poor road infrastructure, including the absence of street lights, and vehicles in poor conditions of maintenance, and the result is this signiﬁcantly high number of road fatalities. Road safety initiatives In 2012, WHO conducted a review of existing laws and regulations within the 102 | Megatrends

Government of India's Motor Vehicles Act, with a particular focus on drink– driving and the wearing of motorcycle helmets. In December 2013, the WHO supported a high-level meeting on road safety to enhance advocacy for proposed amendments to the country's Motor Vehicles Act. Many organisations - government, nongovernment and corporate - have been working to address the issue of fatalities due to road traffic crashes on Indian roads. There is, for instance, the Institute of Road Safety & Fleet Management (IRSM), which works to promote safety and the prevention of road incidents. IRSM, citing studies, states that over 90% of road collisions in India are caused due to drivers' negligence and error. Research has also pointed out that most of the road incidents are preventable by establishing measures that improve

driving, vehicles environments.

and

road

Corporate organisations such as Shell too have their own initiatives, such as Safe Fleets. This is an initiative to prevent death or injuries caused by road traffic incidents, through the implementation of Road Transport Safety Management systems in organisations. Shell's initiative has two programmes: the one addressing the welfare of employees in the corporate sector is known as People moving People; the other is for the welfare of the logistics sector, known as the People moving Goods programme. Henkel India According to the Government of India, Ministry of Road Transport & Highways Research Wing, the year 2011 alone saw 142,485 people killed on the road. automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Safety Out of the same data, 110,461 incidents involved commercial vehicles, and the sharpest increase in the number of deaths was in the twilight time (before sunrise and after sunset) with 77% occurring due to driver negligence. Recently, German automotive supplier Henkel’s Indian unit, Henkel Adhesive Technologies, launched a road safety campaign across its fleet in collaboration with leading transporters and heavy vehicle movers in India. The aim of this fleet-led initiative is to address the issue of safety standards on Indian roads, to curb fatalities and collisions. The company hopes that the Go Safe with Henkel Campaign on Road Safety will create a behavioural shift amongst transporters and heavy vehicle operators. Megatrends discussed this campaign, as well as other issues that affect the safety and efficiency of the logistics segment in India, with Jeremy Hunter, President, Henkel India. According to Hunter, this is a first step towards education, training and building awareness at the basic level in the hope that in years to come, there will be a systematic safe system approach in the way commercial vehicles move in the country. "We don't want our contractors or pedestrians or passers-by getting killed as a result of deliveries. So it's very important to us that we act responsibly and try to raise the standards a little bit in terms of what our contractors do and in terms of what their transporters are doing. A life lost is a life lost; it doesn't matter whether it's a Henkel employee or a customer, it's still a tragedy for us," Hunter says, on how this campaign came about. Henkel India has launched this campaign to both its employees as well as its transport contractors. The company believes that in general, people are all aware of the hazards and dangers, and so it is working on specifics, such as the causes. At the launch of the campaign, the supplier has given its transport contractors certain principles that, for the company, are non-negotiable.

influence of either alcohol or drugs, and ensure that the documentation and the maintenance, the tyres and all of the safety aspects of the vehicle are always looked after. "We're viewing this as a journey which could take us five years or it could take us ten years...The only way we can change behaviour on a consistent daily basis is by continuing to educate, continuing to try and raise the standard of the transport community that we interact with," Hunter said. Although Henkel is a global organisation, this road safety campaign is specific to India. There are, however, similar initiatives in other parts of the world as well. Hunter says the company has concerns in Southeast Asia and Latin America. A campaign of this sort is something that Henkel is likely to replicate in other markets. Are causes specific to India? An obvious question, then, is what leads to such a high rate of fatalities on Indian roads. For instance, the level of infrastructure with regard to Indian roads could play a part, as could the state of the vehicles on the country's roads. "We start from the premise that all accidents are avoidable. It would be very easy to blame the roads or blame the vehicles or whatever, but I think, in the end, it comes down to education and it comes down to behaviour."

Key aspects of the campaign Towards this, the company has identiﬁed ﬁve key points – respect and follow traffic regulations; drive defensively and think ahead; never drive at night; never drive under the automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Hunter cites an example of drivers being given incentives to deliver products more quickly, which naturally encourages them to drive faster, take more risks, drive when they are tired, etc. What emerges from this is that if

one incentivises the wrong behaviour, then that will lead to the wrong result. "There is a gap in terms of education and behaviour that we're trying to close, really. I don't think there is a fundamental issue with Indian roads or Indian vehicles that means that we can't avoid any of this," Hunter tells us. However, an improvement in the infrastructure would certainly help the industry, he feels, such as the quality of the roads. "The idea of all of this is that we become an attractive customer for our transports because we respect the fact that they need to be safe, they need to arrive safely. We reward them for doing the right things." While the can-do attitude in Indian industry is a positive, Hunter feels that by squeezing the margins on these contractors too much, suppliers put them under pressure for factors such as safety, efficiency and maintenance. Next step The campaign having been launched and the ﬁrst steps having been taken, the next stage for Henkel in this initiative is to try to work with each of its contractors on how the company can help them improve their operations. And the company acknowledges that such an initiative will not bear fruit overnight. "We have logistics experts, we have safety experts, and our plan is that we will undertake audits and training sessions and so on with each of our key contractors, to try to raise the standard in their operation as we go forward," Hunter says. Megatrends | 103

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Safety

Image courtesy of ADAC

Meet the crash test dummies who risk a limb so you don't have to Crash test dummies undergo collision after collision, and are designed to last for years. But their days might be numbered, as computer simulation develops to the point where it could prove more effective than the dummies themselves, writes Rachel Boagey

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Safety hat has a human form, a steel skeleton, rubber skin, and costs in excess of €100,000 (approx. US$125,000)? If you haven’t guessed, the answer is a crash test dummy.

Image courtesy of ADAC

Coming in many sizes and ages, crash test dummies act as calibrated test instruments and are intended to simulate human response to impacts, accelerations, deflections, forces and moments generated during highimpact crash testing, while offering vehicle designers a safe, repeatable test instrument for the furthering of transport safety. The way crash test data is gathered and interpreted through dummy testing has come a long way since the practice began in the 1950s, but the basic principles of using dummies for monitoring the way humans might be injured in a crash remain relatively unchanged. Becoming biofidelic Modern test dummies must be designed to enable several variables to be recorded, like crushing force, bending, folding and deceleration rates during a collision for use in crash tests, and different types of dummy are required to test the multiple areas of impact that would affect a passenger in a crash such as frontal or side impact. Transducers fitted into the body, for example the rib cage and the head, provide the physical levels experienced by the dummy. These readings are controlled and repeatable due to careful dummy design, calibration and manufacture so that the vehicle designer may use them to perfect the safety of his product.

20 years ago, GM’s Hybrid III dummies officially became the industry standard for testing to comply with the US government’s frontal impact regulations and airbag safety. The development of Hybrid III served as a biofedelic launchpad to advance the study of crash forces and their effects on human injury, but as technology and materials develop over time, more accurate and human-like dummies have begun to emerge. Dummies have become increasingly bioﬁdelic – that is, they replicate key human physical characteristics including size and shape, mass and energy absorption – using more

Hybrid III dummies at GM's Milford Proving Ground in the 1980s

106 | Megatrends

realistic body parts, such as shoulder and thorax through feedback from real world crashes and cadavers. The biggest upcoming change for dummies is an update of the frontal Hybrid III which remains the dummy of choice for safety organisations such as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and safety testing organisations including Latin NCAP and Euro NCAP. Lotta Jakobsson, Senior Technical Leader, Safety - Injury Prevention at Volvo, who specialises in biomechanics, told Megatrends, “The ambition is always to make dummies as biofidelic and anthropomorphically correct as possible.” She noted, however that, “It is essential that the physical dummies are repeatable tools, which poses challenges when aiming for maximum biofidelity.” Thatcham Research is an accredited Euro NCAP testing laboratory, and Automotive Megatrends spoke to Matthew Avery, Thatcham’s Head of Research. He noted that a particular development is from ‘P’ dummies to ‘Q’ dummies, which are more biofedelic in particular areas that have been developed by Thatcham. “The frontal adults are the oldest and least biofidelic,” noted Avery, “but the new ‘Q’ child dummies are more biofidelic especially in the neck area than their forebears.” automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Safety

Megatrends spoke to Alejandro Furas, Global NCAP Technical Director, who explained how Latin NCAP is also moving to the more biofedelic dummy in 2014 to ensure the effectiveness of its crash tests. “Until 2013, Latin NCAP was using a three-year old dummy and an 18 month old dummy, but they were from the ‘P’ family, which we see as a very old development. Later technology helped measure and understand how real-life children would be affected by a crash. With this later technology, a new family of ‘Q’ dummies was developed. We keep using the same ages of dummies but the ‘Q’ dummies have a higher bioﬁdelity than the ‘P’ dummies.” Types of dummy Due to their limited biofedelity, crash test dummies are directional, which means a speciﬁc crash test dummy can only be utilised in one type of crash mode. The main types of dummy are SID (Side Impact Dummy) specially designed to measure rib, spine and internal organ shocks and compression of the chest cavity in side collisions; BioRID, a development of the dummy which helps to more accurately assess whiplash trauma from a rear impact; and CRABI, which represents a child test dummy used to better measure the effectiveness of child restraint systems. automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Front Center Airbag testing by General Motors

Child dummies still have some limitations, noted Jakobsson. “The most recent child dummy family “Qseries” is improved in many aspects as compared to its predecessors. However, they are still based on scaled-down adult data, putting limitations on bioﬁdelity. There is still a great need for further research in this area.” The BioRID was co-developed by Thatcham, has a very sophisticated articulated spine and is very bioﬁdelic, but is only used for rear impact. In side impact, the new world SID has a more sophisticated multi axis chest that recently replaced the EuroSiD. Thatcham’s Avery said, “All dummies still have the issue that they are, in essence, single axis. A frontal dummy

can only be used in a front crash, a BioRID only in a rear crash.” Volvo Cars, like most OEMs, uses dummies supplied by Humanetics, the world’s leading producer of dummies. Jakobsson noted that most of the dummy developments are results of joint research projects, often between industry and universities and dummy manufacturers, and that Volvo Cars has been a part of several such projects. “In the mid-1990s we led the development of BioRID, the first dummy for evaluating whiplash injuries in rear end impact. We were also a part of the modifications of the most recent frontal impact dummy, THOR, providing biofidelity also in oblique occupant movements. This is especially essential for recreating real world frontal crashes Megatrends | 107

Safety which usually contain kinematics as well.”

rotational

Adjusting the average Mike Beebe, Senior Engineer at Humanetics, described to Megatrends how the organisation works with insurance and academic institutions to analyse the ever-increasing data generated by dummies. “This allows them to establish and prioritise the most common injuries, but also the most common victims,” said Beebe. However, since the 1950s, the average person represented by Hybrid III has changed dramatically, and Humanetics needs to continuously evolve to develop prototypes for a dummy that better models the different types of human bodies. When Hybrid III was introduced in 1976 it was designed to represent the ‘average’ American male, stood 1.8m (5ft 9in tall) and weighed 77kg (170lbs). Since then, that average male has gained more than 11kg (25lbs) and is 2.5cm (1in) shorter. According to a recent study from the University of California Berkeley's Safe Transportation and Research Education Center (SafeTREC), obese occupants are 78% more likely to die in a car crash than an average weight driver. To accommodate the increasing numbers of overweight drivers, Humanetics is developing an obese dummy. One prototype has already been produced that weighs 273 pounds with a body mass index of 35.

The God of crash test dummies? Developing new dummies is difficult because they must react to massive impacts in the same ways the human body would, but must be durable enough to absorb scores from hundreds of crashes. This is why updating dummies as new materials and equipment become available is necessary to ensure their continued effectiveness. “The dummies are continuously being improved,” noted Volvo’s Jakobsson. However, she also explained that the pace of improving dummies is quite slow and getting a new dummy on the market and accepted is a very long and difficult process. “Hence, few new dummies are developed over a ten year period. Most of the developments are reﬁning the existing dummies, adding measurement possibilities and minor adjustments.” The biggest upcoming change for dummies is an update of the frontal Hybrid III. Replacing these will be a new crash test dummy named THOR, which has been in development since the 1990s and stands for Test device for Human Occupant Restraint. THOR is an advanced 50th percentile male dummy and successor of the Hybrid III model. It features an improved spine and pelvic structure in order to better resemble a human and comes with an innovative array of face sensors meant to determine how objects impact a human face during a car crash. Thatcham’s Avery explained, “THOR is currently in development and has been

A dummy tests a car seat at a Johnson Controls seating test lab

for a decade. We have announced the plan to adopt by the next decade, but it's not yet fully developed.” Despite THOR being ﬁlled with over 134 channels of data (78 more than Hybrid III), the industry is facing a chicken and egg situation, according to Avery, “because no one will complete development unless someone commits to use the dummy in testing.” He continued, “Committing is difficult since we are agreeing to use something we've yet to evaluate and this is especially problematic for vehicle manufacturers who need to develop their 2020 products next year but with a dummy they can't buy.” The death of the crash test dummy? While the world of vehicle safety engineering is not ready to give up the crash test dummy in favour of the human computer model just yet, much work is being done in this area. Dr. Christophe Bastien, Principal Lecturer - Engineering Simulations at Coventry University in the UK spoke to Megatrends about the potential for the future crash test dummy to lie in the virtual rather than the physical world.

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Safety metrics goes in the right direction for safety: they are practical to measure and engineer for. Nevertheless this is still unsatisfactory: only human models can answer trauma injuries.” Bastien argues, therefore, that crash test dummies are limited and “should be accepted as they are: they will never be biofidelic.” He explained to Megatrends that despite huge changes in biofidelity of dummies, “Even the new WorldSID and THOR are not as biofidelic as human models. I do not envisage them to ever be active and tense their muscles prior to crash or to create evasive manoeuvres for example.”

Bastien noted that thanks to crash test dummies, the level of fatalities on the road in the last 30 years has improved greatly, and suggested that we need crash test dummies to provide pointers to engineers to design safer vehicle structures. However, Bastien, who has spent his career working in occupant safety, also suggests that crash test dummies are nevertheless machines which record acceleration, displacement and forces. “These metrics are linked with injury criteria which are used to predict, statistically, risks of injuries. As a crash test dummy needs to be used many times, it has to be repeatable and unbreakable, which is contradictory to a human being.” Because of this, Bastien explained that dummies are not surrogates for human beings, and that some metrics in the crash test dummies are still deliberated, like the Head Injury Criteria (HIC), which is challenged by the Brain Injury Criteria (BrIC) proposed as a potential candidate by NHTSA. This includes the rotational effect of the brain in the injury instead of a simple linear translation. Another metric is the neck injury criteria as they have little to do with real trauma injuries. “The sentiment to use these automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Volvo’s Jakobsson agrees, believing that the future changes of physical dummies will go in-line with the developments today, anticipating a relatively slower pace with respect to physical dummy developments, since virtual human body models are more in focus and provide many beneﬁts. She said, “I think the physical dummies mainly will improve with respect to sophistication in measurement technique – adding more injury types to be monitored and predict. I also foresee some developments in enhanced bioﬁdelity and possibly in some more dummy sizes.” Jacobsson noted that the major steps regarding developments of tools for humans in a crash are soon to be taken in the area of virtual human developments. “Today we have a

number of human body models, comprising more humanlike body representation including skeleton and internal organs for example. This development will continue rapidly and we will get more sizes and more detailed injury prediction capabilities.” Despite these steps, she noted that these virtual human body models cannot be transferred into physical crash test dummies, since they are too complex. “Therefore, we also need developments in virtual veriﬁcation and/or consumer information testing in order to effectively use these sophisticated human representatives in a wider context than in-house vehicle development and research areas.” So how long will steel-skeletoned, rubber-skinned dummies be part of crash testing? The truth is, the future of physical dummies may be uncertain. Bastien believes that while in the future, physical dummies should still be used to validate and calibrate the occupant’s interaction with the airbag and restraint system at the beginning of the vehicle design. However, once this is completed, Human Computer Models (HCMs) realistically could be used to investigate occupant percentile variations, age variations, gender variations, children variation, obesity (BMI) variations, muscle tension in prebraking, and to ﬁne tune the vehicle for humans and not crash test dummies. The move towards computerised dummies for crash tests, therefore, may not be far away.

GM's Hybrid II Series crash test dummies, 1972

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Safety

360 vision - the future of vehicle safety? Delphi is creating technology to give trucks and light duty vehicles a 360 degree view of their surroundings, as the supplier’s Mike Thoeny explains to Rachel Boagey he automotive industry appears to be on the verge of one of its greatest evolutionary changes, engendered by autonomous vehicle technologies. These technologies can offer signiﬁcant beneﬁts such as saving lives, reducing crashes, decreasing congestion, and minimising fuel consumption, as well as taking the driving task away from the unpredictable, unrealiable human driver.

The momentum for such technology innovation in the automotive industry comes as nearly 1.3 million people die in road crashes each year, an average of 3,287 deaths a day. The crashes not only cost lives but amount to a cost equivalent to US$518bn globally – a substantial portion of any country’s annual GDP. Delphi, a supplier of technologies for the passenger car and CV markets, has been working on making the vehicle safer for many years, believing that increasingly advanced collision avoidance technology can predict potential hazards, helping roads to become increasingly safer for drivers. 110 | Megatrends

Megatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny, Director, Electronic Controls Europe at Delphi Electronics & Safety, about the suppliers’ recent collision avoidance technology offerings, and what the future will bring for the increasingly safe and connected car. Cars and trucks that can see Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in light vehicles, the ﬁtment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucks and buses over 3.5t in Europe from Q4 2014, thanks to a European Commission mandate.

technology seriously, and accelerate it within their product development plans. “So far, most OEMs have reacted quite positively to this news, as this technology is becoming increasingly important and accepted.” Thoeny described such technologies as not only a step towards increased vehicle safety, but a step in the direction of the autonomous car. “Avoidance with braking is coming in

“Both technologies not only warn the driver of pending accidents, but are able to instruct the car to avoid a crash if the driver doesn’t notice an oncoming obstacle on time,” said Thoeny, explaining the signiﬁcance of these technologies. AEB systems like those offered by Delphi can reduce road accidents by up to 27%, and Thoeny noted that every truck OEM now has to take this automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Safety

now, but in the future, I can predict steering manoeuvres as part of vehicle systems. This may be a little more complicated with heavy duty trucks, but it has the potential to be a viable upcoming technology development.” However, he also explained that future technologies, which will sense threats and obstacles around the vehicle, will need not only increased vision, but a fusion of sensing technologies to enable the car to have a 360 degree view of its surroundings.

To do this, Delphi has been working on RACam, its integrated Radar and Camera System, which combines radar sensing, vision sensing and data in a single sophisticated module. Thoeny describes this as a ‘sensor fusion.’

Sensor fusion

The technology integration is helping to provide optimum value to vehicle manufacturers by enabling a suite of active safety features that includes adaptive cruise control (ACC), LDW, forward collision warning (FCW), low speed collision mitigation, and AEB for pedestrians and vehicles.

Much of Delphi’s electronic safety development is based on sensing technology that looks at the world outside of the vehicle and senses potential issues and threats to the vehicle. “We concentrate on either warning the driver or doing something to help the driver. We’re moving from safety systems like ABS which is a great system, to the next step which is is to stop accidents before they even happen.”

“We use radar technology and vision technology combined,” explained Thoeny. “For AEB, you can use vision, but the best technology from our perspective is radar because of its allweather performance, and the fact that it can detect objects at further distances with more accuracy. For this reason, we are developing sensor fusion between radar and vision. I think this is where the truck market is heading.”

Getting down to speciﬁcs, the fusion technology allows both radar and camera to see the outside world 150200 metres in front of the truck and can identity multiple objects with the radar. Using vision, it can also tell the driver exactly where the lane markings are and what the upcoming objects are while communicating with the radar. “Is it a truck, car, bridge overhead, pedestrian? It is important to distinguish which object it is as the driver might do something different or react in a different manner. If there is a clear indication of the objects in front, the driver can receive advanced notice of real potential accidents without also obtaining bad information and false alarms. Then, if the driver doesn’t react, the system can automatically apply the brakes.” Leading the way Even though sensor fusion technologies have already been on the road for passenger vehicles since 2007, Thoeny explained that the demands of the truck market are high and are helping to push the capability of these systems. Truck mandates, in particular, are pushing high performance system development. “Trucks need a longer reaction time because of their weight, for example, so having good systems that can recognise an accident well in advance of the accident itself is a clear need of the sector.” Delphi is creating the technologies that are giving trucks and light duty vehicles a ‘360 view’, concludes Thoeny. “There is a serious case for being able to see more than just in front or behind, and we have this covered with our technologies.”

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Safety

The DATSUN GO scored zero stars for adult occupant protection and just two stars for child occupant protection. The Datsun GO’s vehicle structure collapsed in the crash and was rated as unstable. The car’s lack of airbags meant that the driver’s head makes direct contact with the steering wheel and dashboard – the dummy readings indicate a high probability of life-threatening injuries. However the failure of the body shell makes it redundant to fit an airbag.

OEMs still taking advantage of lack of car safety standards in India New test results from NCAP show how manufacturers can still sell substandard models in emerging markets — as it’s all perfectly legal. By Rachel Boagey

here is no doubt that many OEMs including Nissan know how to build safe cars. This is proven by the fact that three of its 2014 models sold in the US earn the 2014 IIHS Top Safety Pick+ award when equipped with optional front crash prevention systems, and another is a Top Safety Pick+ itself.

However, when bringing its cars to India, Nissan’s Datsun Go recently fell short of a good or even acceptable safety rating in Global New Car Assessment Programme (NCAP) frontal tests, failing to earn any stars for adult protection. For this reason, the model cannot be sold in North America or Europe. Neither could the Maruti Suzuki Swift nor a host of other new cars produced for consumers in India. In fact, new test results from NCAP show how manufacturers can still sell substandard models in emerging markets — as it’s all perfectly legal. The reason behind this is that India’s government doesn’t yet require vehicles to meet UN regulations for 112 | Megatrends

occupant protection in frontal crashes and side impacts. Highlighting safety deﬁciencies in cars sold in India and other fast-growing automotive markets is part of Global NCAP’s mission to create safety marketplaces in these countries. The organisation offers technical guidance and ﬁnancial support to expanding new car assessment programmes as part of the UN’s Decade of Action for Road Safety, a programme which aims to halve the death and injury toll on roads worldwide by 2020. We spoke to David Ward, Secretary General Global NCAP, about the Indian project the organisation has been carrying out. Speaking on why OEMs are offering such low safety rated cars in markets like India, Ward commented: “They say their standards are applied in whichever country they are selling the products and unfortunately there are many emerging markets in which this is legal. They are exploiting the lack of a global minimum regulatory in the

market and we think that is very sad and doesn’t reﬂect well on companies like Nissan that are doing this.” NCAP programmes launched in Latin America in 2010 and Southeast Asia in 2012 are having a positive impact on vehicle safety in these regions. In India, plans are underway for an NCAP to provide Indian consumers with vehicle safety ratings. Until that programme is up and running, crash tests are being conducted by Global NCAP, which has urged New Delhi to require all new cars to have airbags and a strong occupant compartment. The Datsun Go and Suzuki Swift are the latest popular model small cars to be evaluated in the Safer Cars for India project. Both hatchbacks lack airbags and received Global NCAP’s lowest rating of zero stars out of a possible ﬁve for occupant protection in an offset frontal crash at 40mph (64kph) – a test that nearly all models in North America, Europe, Japan and Australia ace. Injury measures taken from driver dummies automotiveworld.com/megatrends/

Safety in both tests indicate high risk of lifethreatening injuries. “All major OEMs globally know how to meet minimum crash test standards. It’s just a case of integrating their entire global platform range with safety standards and technologies, even as simple as airbags,” noted Ward. Global NCAP Chairman Max Mosley called on Nissan to withdraw the Datsun Go from India and other markets and redesign it. The Go’s structure collapsed in the crash test, and the driver dummy’s head contacted the steering wheel and dashboard. The Datsun Go “has a body structure so weak that it is pointless to ﬁt an airbag,” Global NCAP SecretaryGeneral David Ward said in announcing the results in early November. “It is disappointing to see a global company like Nissan launch a new car design in 2014 that so clearly falls below UN safety standards.” Changing consumer expectations “It’s actually a weakness for OEMs and reﬂects badly on them,” Ward explained. “I don’t think it will succeed commercially. The Tata Nano is an example of this. It is affordable but it

hasn’t sold well. I don’t think the Datsun Go will either. As consumers in emerging markets understand more the beneﬁts of safe vehicles, they will insist on them and will be willing to pay slightly more for a couple of airbags and a decent body structure, which the Go sadly doesn’t have. In the end, the expectations from consumers will make products like the Datsun Go far less likely to succeed.” For this reason, Ward explained the potential for an NCAP in India to provide customers with safety ratings. “There is a discussion going on in the Indian government of an Indian NCAP. Hopefully there will be an initiative to create one and the way things are going, by the end of 2016 we might see

the beginnings of a programme there. Alongside we hope that the Indian government will apply the minimum UN crash test standard in the country too.” Earlier this year, Volkswagen agreed to equip its entry-level Polo model with standard driver and front passenger airbags for the Indian market. In an initial Global NCAP test, a version of the Polo without airbags received a zero-star rating. The Polo, unlike the Go or the Swift, has a strong body structure to protect passengers in a crash, so in a test of the airbagequipped Polo, the rating improved to four stars for adult occupant protection. A version of this article ﬁrst appeared on AutomotiveWorld.com

Hyundai i10 received a zero-star safety rating for adult occupant protection

Tata Nano received a zero-star safety rating for adult occupant protection

Suzuki-Maruti Alto received a zero-star safety rating for adult occupant protection

Ford Figo received a zero-star safety rating for adult occupant protection

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Megatrends | 113

When

Where

17 March 2015

Dearborn, USA

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