Thinking into the future Richard O’Brien Outsights
Outside-in thinking
Environment
Politics
Poverty
Organisation Hunger
Education Health
Technology
Economics
Society
The process This morning
Brainstorming the drivers of change, the development challenges and the governance/institutional issues
After lunch
Presentation of our initial findings
Throughout
Looking for insights to respond to our initial findings
Final morning
Review of insights and the “So what?� for the Future of the UN Development System
Global drivers of change
Non!state! Scarcity!and! actors climate! Power! change balance New! vulnerabilities Technology
Global governance and institutions
Technology
Power! shifts
Sudden!shocks Demography Identity
Group 2: Development Challenges •Problem!of!conflict!– •Problem!of!conflict!– affected! affected! states states •Changing!demographic!dynamics! •Changing!demographic!dynamics! (migration!labour!market) (migration!labour!market) •Unresponsive!states!(government! •Unresponsive!states!(government! corruption,!human!security,!space! corruption,!human!security,!space! for!private!sector,!civil!society,! for!private!sector,!civil!society,! connectivity) connectivity)
Certainty
•Decline!of!natural! •Decline!of!natural! resource!base!(food,! resource!base!(food,! water,!energy) water,!energy) •Growing!inequality!and! •Growing!inequality!and! discrimination!beyond! discrimination!beyond! income!(gender,!spatial) income!(gender,!spatial)
•Lack!of!physical! •Lack!of!physical! infrastructure infrastructure •Clash!of!!science,! •Clash!of!!science,! modern!education,! modern!education,! values,!pluralism values,!pluralism •Urbanisation!– •Urbanisation!– related! related! problems! problems!
LOW
•Monopolisation!of!media,! •Monopolisation!of!media,! technology,!IPs,!communication,! technology,!IPs,!communication,! culture culture •Access!to!primary!health!care,! •Access!to!primary!health!care,! ending!chronic!diseases,!pandemics ending!chronic!diseases,!pandemics •Violence!and!criminality!by!non" •Violence!and!criminality!by!non" state!actors!(including!economic! state!actors!(including!economic! crimes) crimes) •Global!asymmetries!(political,! •Global!asymmetries!(political,! economic,!military) economic,!military)
HIGH
MEDIUM
Minor
MEDIUM
HIGH
Major
LOW
Global drivers of change
Non!state! Scarcity!and! actors climate! Power! change balance New! vulnerabilities Technology
Global drivers of change
Scarcity!and! climate
Non!state! actors Power!shifts Power! balance
Identity Demography New!vulnerabilities Technology Technology
Sudden!shocks
Global drivers of change
Scarcity!and! climate
Decline!of!natural! resource!base
Unresponsive!states
Non!state! actors Power!shifts Power! balance
Conflict!affected! states
Identity
Changing! demographic! dynamics
Demography New!vulnerabilities Technology Technology
Inequality!and!discrimination
Sudden!shocks
Alternative futures for 2025
Governance
Resource
Status quo?
availability
Scarcity
Abundance
New powers
Alternative futures for 2025
Status quo?
No excuses to miss MDGs
MDGs likely to be seriously missed
Governance
Resource
MDGs are critical
availability
Scarcity
Abundance
MDGs don’t have to be missed
New powers
Alternative futures for 2025
Status quo? No excuses to miss MDGs
availability
MDGs are critical
Scarcity
UN under serious strain, in time of real need for its services MDGs likely to be seriously missed
Governance
Resource
UN plays central role in resource distribution / access
UN survives: is it efficient?
New powers
MDGs don’t have to be missed UN still has to justify itself
Abundance