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As Economic Headwinds prevail; Multifamily is Resilient - Matt Mullins | Vice President, Maxfield Research & Consulting
T
he Twin Cities apartment market remains resilient and is one of the preferred real estate asset classes among all property types. This comes despite economic uncertainty, 40-year high inflation, seven interest rate hikes this past year, and labor and supply chain constraints. Although apartment fundamentals are moderating after record-breaking highs during the pandemic housing boom, the multifamily industry is on strong footing heading into 2023 and potentially deteriorating economic conditions.
Vacancies remain elevated in the core cities - most notably the CBD neighborhoods that are posting vacancy rates around 7.5% - yet down from double-digit vacancy rates in 2021. Suburban occupancies remain extraordinarily strong with most submarkets posting sub 3% vacancy rates and tight market conditions.
As vacancy rates have tightened, concessions have burned off for many suburban projects while concessions persist for core properties, albeit not as generous as last year. New Twin Cities vacancy rates remain among the lowest in the construction in most submarkets is offering light concessions U.S. and have posted a 12+ year run of sub 5% vacancies. to enhance initial lease-up projections. Across the Metro
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Area, rent growth is up 5% YOY, yet flattened in the 2nd half of 2022. Rent growth has been stubbornly low in the Twin Cities compared to most metropolitan areas that posted double digit rent increases over the past year. However, nationally rent growth took a turn in November as inflation and declining household savings have hit renters balance
sheets. Despite slower rent growth, absorption experienced record leasing velocities coming off peak deliveries, a testament to the overall strength of the market.
Record Expansion Drives On… For the sixth year in a row, apartment deliveries hit a new
5,200 APARTMENT UNITS AND COUNTING
KRIS LYNN, BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR ST. PAUL, MN | 612-469-5760 | MIDWEST.BIG-D.COM
high in 2022. Over 12,000 units were completed in 2022; +3% from the previous peak in 2021 (11,700 units). Another blockbuster year is projected in 2023 as over 12,000 units are under construction and slated for delivery this year. Hennepin County led the way this past year with 44% of all new construction, jumping significantly to 73% of all new expected deliveries in 2023. Minneapolis is forecasted to
deliver over 3,700 units in 2023 amidst higher vacancy rates and discussions of rent control ordinances.
Suburban Boom Although the movement to the suburbs was in motion prior to the pandemic, the pandemic brought major changes to migration locally and nationally. As workers evolved to
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hybrid and remote work environments, proximity to the office is no longer a key driver in location preferences. As a result, the movement to smaller and less-expensive housing markets has been driving new construction outward. The suburban share of new construction continues to grow and accounted for 68% of all new construction in 2022 and is projected to be 65% in 2022. Furthermore, collar counties outside the 7-county Metro Area are experiencing exponential growth based on projects in the development pipeline.
pricing comes stabilizes. Fewer homes for sale and sales are projected to decline by upwards of 15% in 2023 therefore driving rental demand. At the same time, home builders have pulled back on new home construction and have pivoted to selling lots and portfolios to single-family rental investors as they convert to a rental model.
2023 Outlook
The health of the multifamily sector will be driven in-part by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy as they hope to For-Sale Headwinds combat inflation through continued rate hikes. An economic Although Millennials are in the peak homebuying years, contraction will slow household formations despite strong increasing mortgage rates, limited inventory, and other demographic trends. Market fundamentals remain strong and affordability barriers are driving many first-time homebuyers the demand for housing continues to grow, but fundamentals remain on the sidelines; hence fueling rental demand. Many are decelerating with uncertainty in the broader economy potential first-time buyers may become move-up lifestyle and weaker consumer sentiment. renters as they upgrade from traditional apartments to townhome-style or single-family rentals as their family size At the same time demand is elevated from would-be home grows. Although the median home sales price has remained buyers left on the sideline due to affordability constraints, high strong in the Twin Cities ($360,000), would be buyers are mortgage rates, and record low supply. For-sale builders waiting out a future purchase until interest rates and/or will reposition some new subdivisions into single-family built-
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for-rent communities and/or townhomes that will appeal to move-up renters and growing families. Suburban product continues to outperform urban assets and the demand is strongest for non-CBD assets in the short-term as the hybrid work model is proving to be long-term and renters seek more affordable living options. As a result, demand will continue to grow in secondary and tertiary markets and capital will pursue out new markets.
service. Multifamily is still the preferred asset class among real estate types and although the market is moderating with the changing macroeconomic conditions, overall the apartment sector is on track for solid performance and is well-positioned for long-term returns.
Matt Mullins Vice President, Maxfield Research & Consulting mmullins@maxfieldresearch.com New record supply will keep rent growth in check while 612.281.6729 vacancies rates are expected to rise slightly. Rising www.maxfieldresearch.com interesting rates will keep transaction volumes at bay while new construction faces tighter underwriting and higher debt
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AGENDA Twin Cities Apartment Market Update Moderator: Keith Collins, Executive Vice President, CBRE Abe Roberts. First Vice President Investments, Marcus & Millichap Chris Missling, Senior Vice President – Multi-Family Investment Sales, NAI Legacy Matt Mullins, VP & Business Development, Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC Ted Bickel, Managing Director, Northmarq Josh Talberg. Managing Director, JLL Grant Campbell, Senior Vice President Investments, Centerspace • Recap on recent major transactions • Value-add opportunities in the market • Competition for investment properties • CAP Rate updates & trends • Which submarkets are still favorable • What type of yields should investors expect • Investment market forecast • Renter Demographic Update for Apartment Investors & Developers
PROJECT AWARDS COMPANY AWARDS PEOPLE AWARDS CITY AWARDS TRANSACTION AWARDS APRIL 20, 2023 12 • Submit Your Nominations Today • 2023 MREJ Awards • www.rejournals.com/REawards
Capital Markets Moderator: Lucas Goring, Vice President, Bellwether Enterprise Andy Deckas, Chief Executive Officer, Axial Real Estate Advisors LLC Fritz Waldvogel, Senior Vice President, Production, Colliers Mortgage Brett Olson, Senior Vice President, Grandbridge Todd Dexheimer ,Co Founder and Principal, Endurus Capital Nick Place, Chief Lending Office, Bridgewater Bank • Interest rates keep rising – what does that mean for investors and developers • Impact of inflation – what does that mean for owners & developers • Fannie & Freddie and HUD update • Construction lending solutions • Long term debt options now and outlook for the next few years • Alternative sources of capital & private lending • What is the overall outlook for 2023
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The New Face of Management: Demographic, Operations & New Technology Moderator: Cecil Smith, President & CEO, MN Multi Housing Association Alex Lelchuk, President, Lelch Audio Video Heather Fleetham, Vice President Operations, Lincoln Property Company Erin Fransen, Chief Operating Officer, Timberland Partners Sydney Anderson, Senior Director, Client Services, Greystar Jamie Perron, Chief Operating Officer, Saturday Properties • Current market vacancy & absorption rates • Changing demographic characteristics of apartment renters • Tenant expectations from owners • Leasing activities • Cutting-edge technologies changing the industry • Updating old properties
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Multifamily Development in 2023 Moderator: David Miller, Owner, Principal, UrbanWorks Maureen Michalski, Vice President of Real Estate Development, Ryan Companies Katie Anthony, Vice President of Development, Schafer Richardson Josh Brandsted, President, greco Kent Roers, Co-Founder and Owner, Roers Companies Nick Murnane, Vice President, The Opus Group Trevor Martinez, Developer, Sherman Associates • What are the hot suburban submarkets for development • Is anything viable in St. Paul right now? • Conversions? Historic or office conversions? • Site redevelopment • When increasing interest prices out home buyers – does that change unit mix for apartment developers • Acquiring land in a tumultuous market • Other multifamily products you are looking at? Senior, 55+, Student, Affordable? • Condominiums – is there any activity at all?
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Waterford Bay apartments is a partial wrap residential development with a parking structure
Waterford Bay apartments is a partial wrap residential development with a parking structure
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at its center and dwelling units surrounding it on three sides. The ground level is activated
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through the entry, amenity spaces, and units which are accessed directly from the exterior.
The upper 3 floors frame two court-yards that are separated by an amenity pavilion.
The upper 3 floors frame two court-yards that are separated by an amenity pavilion.
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Architecture, Design, and Construction Forecast Moderator: Dean Dovolis, Principal | CEO, DJR Architecture & Design Joyce Stupnik, President | Partner, BDH Michael Krych, Senior Design Leader, Managing Partner, BKV Group Stefan Michno, Project Manager, Kraus-Anderson Christian Lawrence, Founder & CEO, RISE Modular David Stahl, Principal, Cuningham • What types of trending amenities are important • How has design changed interior layouts of units • Modular construction pros & cons • New project showcase • Is work-from-home still driving unit design and amenities? • Creative strategies to keep per unit cost down
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Multifamily Outlook - Michel Commercial Real Estate
Booming First Half
renters from purchasing homes and renting for longer than Much of 2022 brought the same excellent performance in previous generations. These factors have helped drive the the multifamily real estate market that defined 2021, with demand for multifamily properties and paved the way for record-breaking sale prices and strong sales volume. The strong occupancy and steady rent growth. Twin Cities led the nation in new construction, reaching fortyyear highs in Q1. The market absorbed those new units as Interest Rates Increased quickly as they were completed, most notably in the suburbs. The interest rate hikes that began in the second half of 2022 have brought some uncertainty to the market. The overnight The incredible market of the first half of the year was the changes to the interest rates have led to a slowdown in deal product of several key factors. First, buyers were able to volume and some cap rate expansion. secure extremely low interest rates, often below 4%. This led to intense competition and excellent sale prices for well- While the interest rate increases have impacted the market, located properties. Second, the single-family home market investors still view the multifamily sector as a strong hedge was also very competitive which has kept many young against inflation and a prudent investment vehicle to protect
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assets during periods of sustained, economic ambiguity. While the market has slowed since the peak at the beginning Complimentary Valuations of the year, investors continue to buy properties and deploy With over 100 years of combined experience, the Michel equity into cash flowing opportunities. Commercial team welcomes the opportunity to provide a complimentary valuation of your multifamily property. A Outlook for 2023 valuation from Michel Commercial includes a comprehensive The Twin Cities’ stable economy continues to attract capital market and financial analysis as well as recent like-kind rent from local and national investors. We predict that the 2023 and sale comparables. multifamily market will hinge on the Fed’s decisions in regards to interest rates. If the Fed continues to increase the interest rates, this will exacerbate the uncertainty in the market Michel Commercial Real Estate which will likely result in continued price softening and will Michel Commercial Real Estate was founded by Steve Michel in 1987 make transactions more difficult to complete; resulting in a and is focused on selling multifamily housing. The firm is known for slowdown of deal volume. If the interest rates remain steady extensive regional & national marketing, strong relationships, and (or decrease) for an extended period of time, we predict that negotiation expertise. Recognized as a top dealmaker in the Midwest, buyers and sellers will feel comfortable with their abilities to Michel Commercial represents both private and institutional investors complete transactions. In this scenario, we foresee a surge and regularly receives the ‘Power Broker Award’ for being among of sale activity due to the fear of pricing softening (on behalf the highest overall in apartment transaction volume in the Twin Cities of sellers) and the urgency to deploy capital (on behalf of multifamily market. buyers).
MULTIFAMILY RENTAL HOUSING SERVICES
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THE TWIN CITIES STABLE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO ATTRACT CAPITAL FROM LOCAL & NATIONAL INVESTORS
Twin Cities Average Price Per Unit & Sales Volume Overall
Class A
Class B
Class C
Total Sales Volume 14,000
$300,000
$275,000 12,000 $250,000
$225,000 10,000 $200,000
$175,000
8,000
$150,000 6,000
$125,000
$100,000 4,000 $75,000
$50,000 2,000 $25,000
$148,480
0
$0 2020
2021
2022
2022 Twin Cities Overall Average Price Per Unit Source: CoStar Analytics
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STEVE MICHEL
PETER MICHEL
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Committed, specialized and effective commercial real estate finance experts. The enterprising team at Colliers Mortgage works collaboratively to analyze and uncover unique opportunities and finance alternatives to help make our clients’ projects successful. Through our broad platform, we are able to offer a full range of finance options and provide the best solution available for each transaction.
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