5. Lukashenko’s Attempts at Regime Preservation

innovation of the Belarusian people have allowed them to evade censorship and fight for a

democratic future.

5. Lukashenko’sAttempts at Regime Preservation

Lukashenko has also attempted to preserve his regime and limit Western influence

through tactics above and beyond his extreme measures against domestic reporting. While the

landscape is constantly evolving, the regime’s most salient current tactics involve opposition

suppression, Russian support, and constitutional referendums. Though Lukashenko has denied

holding his opposition as political prisoners, he has arrested many opposition activists on a

variety of charges since the 2020 election. According to the Viasna Human Rights Center, as of

January 13, 2022, 981 people in Belarus have been arrested as political prisoners since 2009,

with an influx of arrests between 2020 and 2022.64 One of the most prominent targets was Sergei

Tikhanovsky, who, in December 2021, was sentenced to 18 years for organizing and inciting

mass unrest and hatred. Other would-be 2020 candidates, protest organizers, opposition bloggers,

and veteran politicians have also been tried and sentenced, receiving terms ranging from eleven

to sixteen years.65

Lukashenko has also relied on longstanding ally Russia for regime survival, both

borrowing from its authoritarian tactics and utilizing their support. Lukashenko is launching

Russian-like cyber-attacks to hold power: Ghostwriter, a Belarusian disinformation campaign,

hacks news sites and the social media accounts of government officials to further Lukashenko’s

64 “Political Prisoners in Belarus, ” Viasna Human Rights Center, accessed January 13, 2022, https://prisoners.spring96.org/en. 65 “Belarus: Opposition Leader Tikhanovsky Jailed for 18 Years over Protests, ” BBC News, December 14, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59650238.

agenda, an operation similar in nature to previous Russian attacks.66 Lukashenko is also signaling

his military cooperation with longstanding ally Russia. In a December 2021 meeting in St.

Petersburg, Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin discussed holding joint war games and military

drills to fortify the southern border of Belarus.67 Strengthened cooperation between Belarus and

Russia is a concern for NATO security in the region because Belarus lies between Russia and

Kaliningrad, a critical stretch of land between Poland and Lithuania. If Putin is able to take

control of Kaliningrad, he will be able to effectively cut off Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania from

NATO without launching a military incursion.

Lastly, Lukashenko released a draft of proposed constitutional amendments that will be

decided by a referendum in February 2022. Although initially posited as a shift toward new

leadership, if adopted, the new constitution would actually strengthen and extend Lukashenko’s

power. It includes the introduction of a presidential term limit to two five-year terms. While

Lukashenko had made previous assurances that the constitutional changes would lead to his

stepping down from office, they would effectively restart the clock on Lukashenko’s presidency

and allow him to remain in office until 2035. Besides allowing the ruling elite to preserve their

power, political analyst Igor Tyshkevich adds that the referendum aims to legitimize the regime

and create an illusion of democracy, especially in the wake of an election widely condemned as

fraudulent.68 At the time of writing, it appears the referendum will pass due to the Belarusian

people’s support for term limits.

66 “Belarus Is Borrowing from RussiaAgain—This Time, with Disinformation, ” Washington Post, November 21, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/11/21/ghostwriter-belarus-russia-disinformation/. 67 Vladimir Isachenkov, “Russia, Belarus to Hold Joint War Games Early next Year, ” News 8 WTNH, December 29, 2021, https://www.wtnh.com/news/international/russia-and-belarus-to-hold-joint-war-games-early-next-year/. 68 “Will violence and repression stop after the referendum? Expert opinion, ” Euroradio, January 4, 2022, https://euroradio.fm/ru/nasilie-i-repressii-prekratyatsya-posle-referenduma-mnenie-eksperta; “The opposition and Lukashenka have ‘dead end promises’: why are there no ‘changes’?, ” Euroradio, January 4, 2022, https://euroradio.fm/ru/u-oppozicii-i-lukashenko-tupikovye-posyly-pochemu-ne-nastupayut-peremeny.