3. The 2020 Election: Unexpected Contenders, Unprecedented Crackdown

3. The 2020 Election: Unexpected Contenders, Unprecedented

Crackdown

2020 marked Lukashenko’s fifth time running for re-election, but on this occasion the

autocrat found himself in an unusually vulnerable position. The Belarusian economy was in

crisis owing to Lukashenko’s maintenance of a state-led economy that was over-reliant on

subsidized Russian imports. His response to the Covid-19 pandemic, moreover, amounted to

negligent denialism—describing the virus as a “psychosis” and eschewing lockdowns for his

preferred treatments of vodka and saunas.24 By the time the election was announced in May

2020, societal discontent was running at an all-time high.25

Lukashenko’s desire to avoid competition quickly became clear as the government

moved to arrest or otherwise disqualify prominent potential opposition candidates. Lukashenko’s

most potent competition was no established politician, but a blogger named Sergei Tikhanovsky,

whose Youtube channel “Country for Life” provided a forum for common Belarusians to speak

candidly about their problems with the government. Tikhanovsky’s channel grew immensely

popular in 2020 with 24,000 subscribers, more than twelve times the number following the

state-run Belarus 24 channel. After announcing his candidacy, he was arrested and barred from

running.26 His wife Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a 37-year-old stay-at-home mother and former

English teacher, launched a campaign in his stead.27

24 Tatyana Zenkovich,

“Belarus Protests: beleaguered economy underpins anger at Lukashenko government, ” The Conversation,August 26, 2020, https://theconversation.com/belarus-protests-beleaguered-economy-underpinsAnger-at-lukashenko-government-145063; James Rodgers, “In Belarus, President Lukashenko Has Unique Response to Facing Coronavirus, ” Forbes,April 4, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/ 2020/04/04/in-belarus-lukashenko-has-his--own-ways-for-the-country-to-face-coronavirus/?sh=266a9202279d. 25 “Belarus PresidentAlexander Lukashenko Under Fire, ” BBC News, September 11, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/ news/world-europe-53637365. 26 “Belarus’Bloggers:A‘Bigger Threat' Than Political Parties for President Lukashenka?” Current Time, July 14, 2020, https://en.currenttime.tv/a/30724427.html; Sarah Rainsford, “Belarus: The stay-at-home mum challenging an authoritarian president, ” BBC News, 1August 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53574014. 27 Rainsford, “Belarus. ”

Opposition supporters were subject to arrests during signature collection drives,

“solidarity chain” rallies, and an “unsanctioned public gathering” in which hundreds lined up to

submit complaints to the Central Election Commission (CEC).28 Meanwhile, the dominant

state-run media acted as an arm of Lukashenko’s campaign, reporting uncritically on

Lukashenko and ignoring his opposition or smearing them with conspiracy theories. Independent

news outlets pushed back, covering what the state media would not: the arbitrary arrests of

activists, the obstruction of opposition candidates, and, most inflamatory, Svetlana

Tikhanovskaya’s growing popularity.

29

In mid-July, Tikhanovskaya joined forces with Veronika Tsapkala and Maria

Kolesnikova, the wife and election agent of two other disqualified candidates.30 With the

opposition united behind her, Tikhanovskaya became an increasingly viable candidate.31 She ran

not with a typical platform but with the promise that, if elected, she would hold new free and fair

elections and then resign.32 Her supporters rallied around the image of the slipper, referencing

their desire to “squash the ‘cockroach’”—the epithet given to Lukashenko by Tikhanovskaya’s

husband Sergei.33 By late July, her rallies were attracting thousands of supporters, a fact noted by

28 Tatsiana Ziniakova,

“Belarus: Rule of Law Dimensions of 2020 Presidential Elections, ” World Justice Project, August 18, 2020, https://worldjusticeproject.org/news/belarus-rule-law-dimensions-2020-presidential-elections; “Belarus Opposition Protests End inArrests, ” BBC News, June 20, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe53115921. 29 “Coverage of the 2020 Presidential Elections in Belarusian Media, ” (Minsk: BelarusianAssociation of Journalists, 2020), https://baj.by/en/analytics/coverage-2020-presidential-elections-belarusian-media-final-report. 30Kalinovskaya, “In Belarus, 3 Women Unite” 31Tony Wesolowsky, “TheAccidental Candidate in Belarus who is Trying to Unseat ‘Europe’s Last Dictator, ’” Radio Free Europe,August 5, 2020, https://www.rferl.org/a/the-accidental-candidate-in-belarus-who-is-trying-to-unseateurope-s-last-dictator-/30767486.html. 32 Ido Vock, “‘Everyone is scared in Belarus:’Svetlana Tikhanovskaya on migrant crisis and taking on a regime of terror in Europe, ” New Statesman, November 20, 2021, https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2021/11/ cannon-fodder-svetlana-tikhanovskaya-on-lukashenkos-repression-and-the-belarus-migrant-crisis. 33 Andrei Makhovsky, “‘Stop the Cockroach’: protests rattle Belarus President Lukashenko before elections, ” Reuters, June 2, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-election/stop-the-cockroach-protestsrattle-belarus-president-lukashenko-before-election-idUSKBN2391YQ.

the Belarusian government, which conveniently carried out “emergency repair work” at

Tikhanovskaya’s campaign sites, forcing her to cancel appearances just before the election.34

The August 9 election was carried out without independent international observers, and

though state-run media was quick to call the election for Lukashenko, poll workers and

independent news outlets reported numerous instances of fraud, such as ballots for opposition

candidates being placed in piles for Lukashenko and vote totals for Tikhanovskaya and

Lukashenko being swapped.35 In the CEC’s official vote totals, Lukashenko garnered 80% of the

vote, with Tikhanovskaya trailing far behind with 10% and the other opposition candidates

receiving less than 2% each.36 Widespread doubts remain about the true winner of the popular

vote. Tikhanovskaya rejected the results and claimed to be the true winner of the elections.37 The

leader of Honest People, a Belarusian activist group, posited that Tikhanovskaya received many

more votes than the CEC reported, but “given the manner in which the vote [was] rigged, [...]no

one knows the real result of the election.”38 In a survey by London think-tank Chatham House,

50% of respondents reported having voted for Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, and just 21% for

Lukashenko.39

34 “BelarusianAuthorities Cancel Opposition CampaigningAhead of Election, ” Radio Free Europe,August 5, 2020, https://www.rferl.org/a/belarusian-authorities-invent-pretexts-to-cancel-opposition-campaigning-ahead-of-election/3 0767039.html. 35 “Belarus Election: Lukashenko wins another term, election commission says, ” Deutsche Welle,August 10, 2020, https://www.dw.com/en/alexander-lukashenko-wins-belarus-election/a-54506718; Kostya Manenkov and Daria Litvinova, “Belarus Poll Workers Describe Fraud inAug. 9 Election, ” AP News, September 1, 2020, https://apnews.com/article/international-news-ap-top-news-europe72e43a8b9e4c56362d4c1d6393bd54fb; “Coverage of the 2020 Presidential Elections. ” 36 “Belarus Election, ” Deutsche Welle. 37 Andrew Roth and YanAuseyushkin, “Belarus Opposition Candidate Rejects Election ResultAfter Night of Protests, ” The Guardian,August 10, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/10/belarus-oppositioncandidate-rejects-election-result-protests-svetlana-tikhanovskaya-lukashenko. 38 Manenkov, “Belarus Poll Workers Describe Fraud inAug. 9 Election. ” 39 “Belarusians’ views on the political crisis, ” (London: Chatham House, 2021), https://belarusinfocus.pro/ sites/default/files/20210209 _ _ opinion _poll.pdf, 4.

The immediate aftermath of the election saw the eruption of the largest demonstrations in

Belarus’s history. 40 With most of the opposition leaders, including Tikhanovskaya, having fled

the country, the protests were decentralized and largely organized through social media with the

help of popular bloggers. Another novel feature was the strong role played by women, who

called for global female solidarity against repression as they took to the streets dressed in white

and carrying flowers.41 The government responded with repressive measures, the brutality of

which was also unprecedented in Belarusian history. Thousands were detained, with many

subject to torture by electric shock and beatings.42 Though the mass demonstrations tapered off,

dissidence continued in widespread forms, including flash mobs at shopping centers, popular

athletes calling for new elections, and the singing of opposition anthems at theater

performances.43 By the end of the year, more than 30,000 protestors had been taken into

custody. 44 Amid the protests, outrage, and calls for a new election, Lukashenko was sworn in for

his sixth term in secret on September 23rd, 2020.45

40 Rachel Treisman,

“One WeekAfter Election, Belarus Sees Giant ProtestsAgainst ‘Europe’s Last Dictator, ’” NPR, August 16, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/08/16/903036245/one-week-after-election-belarus-sees-giantprotests-against-europe-s-last-dictat. 41 Belinda Goldsmith, “‘Women in White’from Belarus protest globally for peace and a new vote, ” Reuters, August 17, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-election-women/women-in-white-from-belarus-protestglobally- for-peace-and-new-vote-idUSKCN25D1LI. 42 “Belarus: Unprecedented Crackdown, ” Human Rights Watch, January 13, 2021, https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/ 01/13/belarus-unprecedented-crackdown. 43 AbdujalilAbdurasulov, “Belarus protestors battered, bruised, but defiant after 100 days, ” BBC News, November 17, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54961111. 44 “As Belarus Protests Enter Sixth Month, Lukashenka Repeats Vague Promise Of Change, ” Radio Free Europe, January 10, 2021, https://www.rferl.org/a/as-belarus-protests-enter-sixth-month-lukashenkarepeats-vague-promise-of-change/31040652.html. 45 Scott Neuman, “Belarus President is Secretly Inaugurated WeeksAfter Disputed Election, ” NPR, September 23, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/09/23/916000965/belarus-president-is-secretly-inauguratedweeks-after-disputed-election.