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Nanovic Institute for European Studies
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3. The 2020 Election: Unexpected Contenders, Unprecedented Crackdown 2020 marked Lukashenko’s fifth time running for re-election, but on this occasion the autocrat found himself in an unusually vulnerable position. The Belarusian economy was in crisis owing to Lukashenko’s maintenance of a state-led economy that was over-reliant on subsidized Russian imports. His response to the Covid-19 pandemic, moreover, amounted to negligent denialism—describing the virus as a “psychosis” and eschewing lockdowns for his preferred treatments of vodka and saunas.24 By the time the election was announced in May 2020, societal discontent was running at an all-time high.25 Lukashenko’s desire to avoid competition quickly became clear as the government moved to arrest or otherwise disqualify prominent potential opposition candidates. Lukashenko’s most potent competition was no established politician, but a blogger named Sergei Tikhanovsky, whose Youtube channel “Country for Life” provided a forum for common Belarusians to speak candidly about their problems with the government. Tikhanovsky’s channel grew immensely popular in 2020 with 24,000 subscribers, more than twelve times the number following the state-run Belarus 24 channel. After announcing his candidacy, he was arrested and barred from running.26 His wife Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a 37-year-old stay-at-home mother and former English teacher, launched a campaign in his stead.27 Tatyana Zenkovich, “Belarus Protests: beleaguered economy underpins anger at Lukashenko government,” The Conversation, August 26, 2020, https://theconversation.com/belarus-protests-beleaguered-economy-underpinsAnger-at-lukashenko-government-145063; James Rodgers, “In Belarus, President Lukashenko Has Unique Response to Facing Coronavirus,” Forbes, April 4, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/ 2020/04/04/in-belarus-lukashenko-has-his--own-ways-for-the-country-to-face-coronavirus/?sh=266a9202279d. 25 “Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko Under Fire,” BBC News, September 11, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/ news/world-europe-53637365. 26 “Belarus’ Bloggers: A ‘Bigger Threat' Than Political Parties for President Lukashenka?” Current Time, July 14, 2020, https://en.currenttime.tv/a/30724427.html; Sarah Rainsford, “Belarus: The stay-at-home mum challenging an authoritarian president,” BBC News, 1 August 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53574014. 27 Rainsford, “Belarus.” 24
University of Notre Dame | Keough School of Global Affairs
