PLANNING FOR A SUCCESSFUL FUTURE CHRIS D. CRAIKER AIA/NCARB
W
ith the pandemic, fires, elections and teetering economy, we are all struggling for answers. Architects, engineers, contractors and realtors should examine how we survived the last big economic downturn to see what the future might hold. A recent Urban Land Institute poll found 65% of industry respondents were better prepared for this downturn than in the 2007-2010 Great Recession. While 56% felt it could be as bad, if not worse, 43% said they expect the economy to fare better this time around. Interestingly, 35% of all respondents said plans and projects are holdCraiker ing steady. Overwhelmingly, the majority learned from the Great Recession and are benefiting from the experience. At that time, many businesses cut staff to the bone, where today firms are keeping their critical personnel as best they can. Let’s look at some industry observations of ten years ago that may apply to the real estate industry: Economics are as cyclical as is life. While this pandemic may make this downturn seem worse, we will survive. This is a good time to reflect on your business practices and personal life. They are intertwined. There will always be change and now’s the time to revisit what’s important. Up until the start of both downturns, the economies were overheated. Maybe right now we’re back where we should be under normal conditions. Rapid market downturns often don’t bounce back the same, so look for the opportunity and potential growth in whatever you’re doing. If you’re addicted to credit, now is the time to keep in touch with your bank. With interest rates so low, now is the time to refinance. As they say, “keep your friends close but keep your banker closer.” Be prepared to hire again. In the last recession so many workers jumped out of the industry, we had serious shortages. Keep in touch with prospective candidates that might be good when this is over. Never waste a good crisis. Use it to rethink your strategies, study the markets and analyze your products. I tell my students, you’ll barely make a living as
1. 2. 3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
14 | DISTINCTIVE PROPERTIES
Todd Pickering Photography
Building today for a successful tomorrow.
an architect, invent a better gutter or window frame. Real estate will always change: the objective is to look down stream two-three years for future demand. Housing for sure, but high-end? Doubtful with today’s glut. Lower end and rental housing? For sure. Commercial/retail? Don’t bet on it. Office/commercial? Only if you can convert it to housing. Upgrade your technology to better communicate, both with clients and your remote-based workers. That’s really all we professionals do for a living is communicate
8.
9.
ideas. We use symbols, words and lines, sometimes on paper, but more likely on a screen. Of course, nobody predicted a quadruple whammy this time around. Add Climate Change and the future will be challenging. For me, I count six downturns/recessions since 1972 and with each one, I learn something new. It will be interesting to see what we learn this time. Craiker has been designing sustainable buildings for 40 years and survived 6 downturns. He can be reached at chris@ craiker.com NOVEMBER 2020
