Pro Betting Network - Football: 2014/15 Season Preview by oxonpress

TUESDAY 5 AUGUST 2014

THE SPORTS BETTING PROFESSIONALS

13 WAYS TO CASH-IN THIS SEASON... FOOTBALL: 2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW

MOURINHO TO LAND ANOTHER GAMBLE… PREMIER LEAGUE – OUTRIGHT WINNER

Jose Mourinho has landed various gambles for us over the years, and after a fact-finding foundation season under his belt (which has become an historical must have for Mourinho) together with an encouraging preseason, I’m expecting the Portuguese to steer his beloved Chelsea to what would be their third title with the now dubbed ‘Happy One’ in charge... When Chelsea win titles under Mourinho they are built from the defence upwards. When the Blues secured their first top-flight domestic title in 50 years they also recorded a succession of English football records in the process – including the fewest goals conceded in a season (15), which in turn also resulted in securing the most points ever achieved in the Premier League (95). For the most part last season was a big disappointment for Chelsea. There were glimpses of brilliance that included the deconstruction of Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium and a rugged victory at Liverpool which ultimately cost the Reds the 2014/15 title. But overall, as Mourinho himself stated towards the end of last season, his Chelsea side lacked bit of steel and confidence and that combination resulted in the Blues finishing four points adrift of the eventual winners Man City. But was that really so bad a result? Mourinho dismissed his squad as “little horses” last season and he wasn’t wrong there, so to finish just four points behind a side that were built for success last term was for me, quite an achievement – considering the ‘little horses’ that he went to war with.

CHELSEA SET FOR 2014/15 TITLE CHALLENGE... At the end of last season, the Portuguese identified the profiles of the players he required – the need to transform the squad, especially the striker and midfielder positions – and with time and money to spare, Mourinho is absolutely convinced he now has the players to claim the club’s first Premier League crown since 2010. The headline signing of Diego Costa is of course the make-orbreak signature, but there is no doubt in my mind that he will add the grit that Mourinho bemoaned his team lacking last season. Filipe Luis is a good signing also – a direct replacement for Ashley Cole. The experienced and reliable Brazilian is great addition to the squad – the left-footed attack-minded defender will be of great use against teams that press, and given that style was such a problem for the Blues last season, the addition of Luis will help them out no end. The final name on Mourinho’s initial wish list was Cesc

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FOOTBALL // 2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW

Fabregas – a player that will make all the difference for Chelsea this season with his ball possession and fantastically up tempo ball distribution a big edge for the side. He was described as the key signing of the summer by Mourinho the other day – the missing piece of the engine – and I agree with that sentiment.

TEAM

FROM

Benfica

Sept 2000

União de Leiria

There is a new direction at Stamford Bridge – Mourinho appreciates the footballing environment in England and the fact that he has signed so many tenacious players is an important one. This Chelsea side will not be pushed off the ball as they were in those key losses to Stoke and Sunderland last season – and his preseason signings indicate the new direction the club is now going in. JOSE MOURINHO’S MANAGERIAL RECORD M

WIN %

Dec 2000

54.55

July 2001

Jan 2002

45.00

Porto

Jan 2002

May 2004

127

71.65

Chelsea

June 2004

Sept 2007

185

124

67.03

Internazionale

June 2008

May 2010

108

62.04

Real Madrid

May 2010

June 2013

178

128

71.91

Chelsea

June 2013

Present

61.40

686

460

135

67.06

TOTAL

THE TITLE CONTENDERS... Chelsea lead the 2014/15 betting and are rightful favourites @ 15/8. Followed by... Man City @ 12/5 – I’m of the opinion that City are going to struggle next season. I was a huge fan of their chances last term, and we bet accordingly with a decent wager at odds of 5/2 and greater but, despite their fabulous looking squad, they never came across as being a tough side to break down. This Man City side has the look of a unit that would dominate in Italy, but the Premier League is a different bag altogether and I’m not sure Pellegrini has the key to sending this side out to battle every week. Another factor is the owners’ obsession with the Champions League – this is going to be an important influence this coming season, and in a nutshell, City doesn’t look to have the DNA to compete at such a level over the course of a season. Man Utd @ 5/1 – after a decent preseason backers have been getting stuck into Man Utd, and it’s quite clear that Luis van Gaal is going to improve the situation down at Old Trafford – but just 5/1 to win the league feels short given the progress they need to make this season. Being able to challenge on various fronts is all about squad depth and United’s squad is simply not deep enough yet to be priced at that level. Arsenal @ 13/2 – sustaining a title challenge over a full season is always going to be the issue with the Gunners – they fell in a hole last term and Wenger didn’t show any indication that he had solved what is fast becoming a big problem for the North Londoners.

After snagging Mesut Özil last summer, Wenger has opted for another La Liga signing this season with the signature of Barcelona’s Alexis Sánchez already secured. The Chilean will give Arsenal a much-needed alternative look up front and the fact that he is a versatile player that can play out wide or as part of a front pairing is a massive bonus. The Gunners are in better shape than last season and have made yet more progress in the squad department, but they are still short of that genuine spine and challenging over two fronts will be a big test for Wenger again in 2014/15. Liverpool @ 12/1 – Brendan Rodgers is in an unenviable position this season after their unexpected second-place finish in 2013/14. Luis Suárez’s departure takes a significant chunk (31 goals) out of their mightily impressive 101-goal tally last term and, like many others I’m sure, I’m not convinced they will get close to filling that void. The money received from the sale of Suarez has been spread across the squad, raiding Southampton for Rickie Lambert, Adam Lallana and Dejan Lovren, together with the purchase of Lazar Markovic and Emre Can – the Reds have fantastic squad depth now, the question is whether they will gel quickly enough to make a title impact. I don’t think they will, but 12/1 is certainly on the high side about their chances. PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – OUTRIGHT WINNER Tip: Chelsea to win Outright @ 15/8 Stake: £££ Bookies: 15/8 @ Bet365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill, Skybet. Min price 7/4

2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW // FOOTBALL

POTTERS – TOP MIDLANDS CLUB…

PREMIER LEAGUE – TOP SCORER

PREMIER LEAGUE – TOP MIDLANDS CLUB

IT HAS TO BE VAN PERSIE…

I cannot fault Robin van Persie’s chances of being the 2014/15 Premier League Top Scorer – he certainly ticks a few boxes and at the 5/1 available, the Dutchman looks a solid each way bet. The news that he will miss the start of the season was a bit of a surprise, but I’d rather that, than the inevitable problems that occur when you bring players back too early – and given the fact that van Gaal intends to use van Persie quite a bit this season, missing a game or two certainly isn’t going to put me off backing him…

Stoke surprised me last season – I didn’t think Mark Hughes would banish the tactical flaws that had plagued him since stepping up to a head coach, and given his ‘style’ I certainly didn’t think that taking over from Tony Pulis would be a smooth transition. He proved me wrong on both scores with the Potters finishing an impressive 9th place on the Premier League ladder with a points total of 50 with only 52 goals conceded.

This was a solid start to life as Stoke’s manager and I’m backing the Welshman to build on that in 2014/15 – not necessarily trumping that 9th place finish of last term, but certainly better than fellow Midlands clubs Aston Villa, West Brom and Leicester City. STOKE CITY – Ins…

STOKE CITY – Outs…

Mame Biram Diouf (Hannover, free)

Michael Kightly (Burnley, undisclosed)

Dionatan Teixeira (Banska Bystrica) Phil Bardsley (Sunderland, free) Steve Sidwell (Fulham, free)

A couple of factors are key here – first up, the most important, and that’s the way he gets on with van Gaal himself. The new Man Utd manager is a huge fan of RvP’s and we can see that clearly when we cross-reference his International form under van Gaal – where he has excelled playing in a 4-3-3 / 5-3-2 formation. The fact that Van Persie has settled into the United system bodes well, too – we have to take into account that he was never really suited by the Moyes approach, and of course he was injured for a significant part of last season, but the fact remains, the Dutchman has scored 48 goals in 63 starts during two seasons at United and enjoys a close relationship with the players. A well-rested, fit van Persie is exactly what Man United need this season and to be able to back him each way at 5/1 with four places on offer is, for my cash, the best looking Top Scorer bet on the bookmakers boards this season.

Bojan Krkic (Barcelona, undisclosed)

Matthew Etherington (released) Juan Agudelo (released)

Last season we profited late in the day with a decent bet on Stoke to win the Top Midlands Club market and I’m going for the back-to-back double in 2014/15 with odds of 11/8 looking decent value… Using my ratings from last season (biased towards the final half of the season) I have the Potters in with a solid 47 points this term, fractionally in front of Newcastle but a long way behind Everton. West Brom and Villa are both struggling on my numbers to break the 40 point barrier and the newly promoted Leicester will do very well to get anywhere near Stoke’s total this season. I’m 6/5 about Stoke landing the Top Midlands Club gong again in 2014/15 so we’ll grab some of the available 11/8.

PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – TOP SCORER

PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – TOP MIDLANDS CLUB

Tip: Stake: Bookies:

Tip: Stoke City @ 11/8 Stake: £ Bookies: 11/8 @ William Hill, Skybet, Boylesports. Min price 5/4

Robin van Persie @ 5/1 or 9/2 Half £ Each Way* (Total stake of one £) 5/1 @ Marathonbet, 9/2 @ Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, BetVictor, Bet365, Skybet. Min price 9/2 *Each Way: 1/4 odds 4 places

FOOTBALL // 2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW

PREMIER LEAGUE – TOP TEAM SCORERS…

The bookmakers have done a decent job pricing up the Top Team Scorers markets with a healthy spread of quotes for us to pick from. For the most part, the compilers have got their prices about right, but three players stand out – one of which looks super value… ENNER VALENCIA TOO BIG @ 6/4… Another Premier League striker that will miss the start of the season, but I still strongly fancy Enner Valencia to finish on top of the West Ham scorer’s table. The Ecuadorian’s’ form at the 2014 World Cup swung the spotlight onto the former Pachuca striker, but the evidence has been there for a while that this guy is another scoring machine from South America. 18 goals in just 23 appearances for Pachuca is impressive enough, but it has been his form for his country that has really impressed with a superb set of performances in the World Cup warm ups that he backed up with three brilliant

ANOTHER GOOD SEASON FOR AGUERO… You can’t beat solid scorer form and the fact that Sergio Aguero has delivered the goods for the past couple of seasons now stacks up high for me. The news that the Argentinean will miss the start of the season isn’t ideal of course, but Aguero is still the first choice striker for the club and as he proved last season – even with a stop start nature to 2013/14, he still managed to convert 28 goals from just 34 appearances. Overall, Kun has maintained a high rate of scoring at all the clubs he has played for – 74 from 175 appearances for Atleti, 23 from 54 appearances for Independiente and a stunning 52 goals from 87 appearances for City. Missing a few games at the start of the season doesn’t bother me

group efforts in the World Cup itself. In just three weeks he scored against England, Mexico, Honduras and Switzerland and given his aerial strengths, I’m backing him to make the transition to life in the Premier League in fine style.

PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – TOP WEST HAM GOAL SCORER Tip: Enner Valencia @ 6/4 Stake: £ Bookies: 6/4 @ William Hill, Bet Victor. Min price 6/5

at all – his 17 from 23 league games last season would be more than enough to land the Top Man City Scorer gong again and given the fact that he will start the season wellrested, there is every chance that he’ll make more than 23 Premier League appearances this season. 11/10 Aguero is a super price – I’ve got him odds on so that price makes plenty of appeal. PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – MAN CITY GOAL SCORER Tip: Sergio Aguero @ 11/10 Stake: £ Bookies: 11/10 @ Coral, Skybet. Min price 10/11

TAKE ON BENTEKE WITH BENT… There are a couple of reasons why I want to take on Christian Benteke in the Top Aston Villa Scorer department this season – first up, the Belgian is far from happy at Villa and the only reason he’s still at the club is because he ruptured his Achilles last April – and was therefore on the books for all of his recuperation period. Want away Villa owner Randy Lerner will be looking to cash in on the £7 million bargain buy, and there are plenty of clubs sniffing around for Benteke’s signature. Secondly, the Darren Bent situation makes for interesting reading. The club’s record signing only has a year left on

his contract and Lerner is keen to see Bent play out that year – a successful preseason has seen manager Paul Lambert make a U-turn on Bent’s selection status and I’m expecting him to play a significant part for the Villans this season. 8/1 is worth a small bet... PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – TOP ASTON VILLA GOAL SCORER Tip: Stake: Bookies:

Darren Bent @ 8/1 Half £ 8/1 @ Bet Victor, BetFred, William Hill, Skybet. Min price 8/1

2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW // FOOTBALL

13/2 SCOTTISH DOUBLE...

The each way terms in the Scottish lower leagues often present a few decent opportunities – we landed a coup back in 2012/13 combining some big prices and we’re looking to repeat the feat this season with a solid looking each way double making plenty of appeal…

DUNFERMLINE A WORTHY FAVOURITE… SCOTTISH LEAGUE ONE: OUTRIGHT WINNER At best prices, the place book in Scots League One is betting over-broke and that’s with Dunfermline installed as the solid favourite – but if the preseason form is anything to go by, Dunfermline will cruise to a title win in 2014/15 with the ante post jollies looking different class to their League One peers… Jim Jefferies’ Pars side kicked off the season in fine style with a 5-1 cup win over Annan that saw first teamers Alex Whittle, Gregor Buchanan, Michael Moffat, Ryan Wallace and Lewis Martin all getting their names on the score sheet. That was their first competitive match of the 2014/15

campaign and after chatting to a pal of mine who was at the match, I was surprised to hear how fit the squad was at this stage of affairs. New signing Michael Moffat’s effort was especially pleasing for their fans, but overall, it was a great team performance with one of the best League One passing displays my pal has seen ‘North of the Border’ for many years – and considering how much football he has watched over the years, that’s quite a compliment. Offers of Evens could well be looked back on as the rick of the season if this kind of level continues.

THE FIFERS TO LAND LEAGUE TWO… SCOTTISH LEAGUE TWO OUTRIGHT WINNER East Fife have spent most of the preseason taking on high class opposition – and being beaten for the most part, but along the way, player/manager Gary Naysmith’s side done a lot of good things and look in decent shape for a serious tilt at the Scots League Two title.

another team that dwell in a higher league than the Fifers. But that certainly wasn’t apparent on the pitch with the hosts – who fielded only two players that had featured for the club last season – outplaying Forfar for long periods of the match.

This ‘punching above your weight’ approach certainly appears to have paid off with East Fife looking in very good nick during their win against Hamilton in their last preseason friendly – with the Methil men recording their first friendly win after defeats by Fulham, St Johnstone and Hearts.

East Fife’s loss against Stranraer the following week was a godsend for the club as not only did they hold their own with the League One third favourites, but they are now out of the League Cup which is one less burden on their fixture list.

Their first competitive match of the 2014/15 campaign (in the League Cup) was a tidy victory against Forfar –

11/4 is a super price and they are going in the book to complete an attractive looking 6/1 double with Dunnie…

SCOTTISH LEAGUE ONE & LEAGUE TWO – OUTRIGHT WINNERS Tip: Stake: Bookies:

DOUBLE – Dunfermline to win League One & East Fife to win League Two @ 6/1 £ Each Way* (Total stake two £) 6/1 @ Coral, Skybet, Stan James, William Hill, Boylesports, BetFred. Min price 5/1 *Each Way: 1/5 odds 3 places

FOOTBALL // 2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW

SEAGULLS TO FLY HIGH IN 2014/15 THE CHAMPIONSHIP Last season was a frustrating one for Brighton backers – they had to acclimatise to the loss of Gus Poyet and the integration of a manager that had no experience of English football, Oscar Garcia. In the end, Garcia done quite well to force the Seagulls into a playoff place, but his tactics were often well wide of the mark, and we have to remember here that the owner of the club – Tony Bloom – is one of the world’s biggest football punters and the fact that he employs quantitative analysts to crunch a truckload of stats for him should not be overlooked. Unlike 99% of club owners, Bloom knows his way around the world of football and the fact that he has appointed Sami Hyypiä is, in itself, case law for his judgement. This is one of the best managerial appointments I have seen in a long while and I’m backing it to deliver a Championship title – at odds of 25/1 together with support bets on them finishing in the Top 6 at 3/1… and in the Top Half of the table at the very appealing 5/6 with Bet Victor… The standout factor for me here is the fact that Hyypiä chose Brighton – he said after taking the position that the Seagulls were an ambitious club, and that is basically an accurate assessment of the kind of funds that Tony Bloom has at his disposal. The prices here are far too big – the 25/1 outright is a little on the big side, but the 3/1 Top 6 and 5/6 Top Half quotes are very attractive given the squad foundation this club has in place – and, using data from last season, I’ve crunched a few numbers that make all three prices value… We’re staking a total of one ‘£’ on Bristol City, across two markets: The Outright Winner quote is a touch too big – I have the Seagulls in at slightly shorter than 20/1 with the relegated trio of Fulham, Cardiff and Norwich in a little bigger than the bookmakers. There is a general feel to the market that the margin has been apportioned wrongly and the best way to take advantage, is to have a serious crack at the Top 6/ Top Half markets – which basically magnifies the fact that the foundation price (the outright price) is too big. For the Top 6, I have Brighton taking out 29% margin – which as a decimal makes Brighton a 3.44 chance (odds of just over 12/5). To construct this price I’ve used their 2013/14 data biased slightly towards the latter half of the season. I’ve used the same data for the Top Half quote and I have Brighton taking out 59.57% margin – which as a decimal makes the Seagulls a 1.67 chance (odds of 4/6). The available 1.83 (odds of 5/6) is probably the best value of all and I’ve staked the markets accordingly.

THE CHAMPIONSHIP 2014/15 – THREE BETS ON BRIGHTON... Tip: Stake: Bookies:

Brighton to win the Championship @ 25/1 Quarter of a £ 25/1 @ Coral, 20/1 Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill. Min price 20/1

Tip: Stake: Bookies:

Brighton to finish in the Top 6 @ 3/1 Half £ 3/1 @ BetVictor, 11/4 Coral, 5/2 Skybet, William Hill. Min price 5/2

Tip: Stake: Bookies:

Brighton to finish in the Top Half @ 5/6 One and a quarter £ 5/6 @ BetVictor, 8/11 Skybet, Winner.com Min price 8/11

2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW // FOOTBALL

CIDER ARMY A LEAGUE PLYMOUTH – TOP SOUTH WEST CLUB ONE TREAT @ 10/1 LEAGUE ONE

LEAGUE TWO

Bristol City are a team on the up and I want to back them in a couple of markets this season – the Outright Winner market at 8/1 together with a tilt on them to finish in the Top 6 @ 5/6.

Another pricing technique that can destroy the bookies is the manipulation of the league Outright Winner prices (to 100%) into a group market – like Top London Club or in this case the Top South West club in League Two… When adopting that technique here, I get a clear disparity – and once again, it’s the underdog that is taking out a chunk of margin, resulting in the favourite being bet at too big a price. Here is my verdict for the Top South West Club sides along with my price for each team…

Using the exact same modelling method as we did with Brighton, that is based solely on their performance data of last season – that I’ve biased 65% towards their final half of the season. Bristol City are in a very unique position for a League One side - the Robins, backed by multi-millionaire businessman Steve Lansdown, are not in a position where they have to sell their prize asset to balance the books – and for that reason, Sam Baldcock is still with the club. And just for good measure, Lansdown bankrolled the purchase of friend and former MK Dons strike partner Aaron Wilbraham providing Baldock with another incentive to stay at the Robins until his contract runs out at the end of the season. Brighton are still hanging around with a huge bid in the air, but for now at least, Lansdown’s backing makes City a very interesting prospect this season – at a healthy price in both the Outright and Top 6 markets. I have the Robins in at 8/1 for the title, with my data modelling them to a 58.18% chance of a Top 6 place (1.718 decimal odd, just over 7/10 as a fractional odd) – and once again, the best value option is in the Top 6 bet where some books are betting an attractive 5/6 about Bristol City. We’re staking a total of one ‘£’ on Bristol City, across two markets:

LEAGUE ONE 2014/15 – TWO BETS ON BRISTOL CITY... Tip: Stake: Bookies:

Bristol City to win League One @ 8/1 Quarter of a £ 8/1 @ William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, BetFred, Skybet. Min price 8/1

Tip: Stake: Bookies:

Bristol City to finish in the Top 6 @ 5/6 Three quarters of a £ 5/6 @ Paddy Power, BetFred, Skybet. Min price 4/5

Plymouth @ 11/10 – There’s a real air of expectation down at Plymouth this season and I really like the way John Sheridan is, once again, building this squad from the back. A really solid defensive performance is in store and the likes of Reuben Reid (scored 17 goals last season) and Deane Smalley (who netted 7 for Oxford United last term) can look after things at the other end. Newport @ 3/1 – Newport ground share with the local rugby clubs and that can often handicap the club with a fixture jam. That said, the side look in decent shape after last season horrorshow, but they will do well to beat Plymouth. Cheltenham @ 5/1 – Another mid table finish looks on the cards for Cheltenham. Last season they finished strongly enough to record a decent top half finish, but it’s tough to see them beating that by far in 2014/15. Exeter @ 12/1 – William Hill’s price of 11/2 is a bit of a joke here with the Grecians a genuine relegation candidate. Even if they escape the drop, they will do very well to beat their three South West rivals. Offers of 5/4 about Plymouth will do me for a small bet – a big season could be in store and with the support levels growing, a place in the top third of the table beckons. LEAGUE TWO – TOP SOUTH WEST CLUB Tip: Plymouth Argyle @ 5/4 Stake: £ Bookies: 5/4 @ William Hill, Bet Victor. Min price 5/4

FOOTBALL // 2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW

The Football League and Scottish leagues kick off on the weekend of Friday 8th August, with the Premier League following a week later on Saturday 16th. Get your bets on before kick off to ensure you get the best prices. We’ll be looking to add more 2014/15 bets from across the UK and Europe in the weeks ahead, too – keep an eye on your emails and our website... Best wishes, Pernod Pete & the team Pro Betting Network www.ProBettingNetwork.co.uk

BET SUMMARIES PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – OUTRIGHT WINNER

PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – TOP SCORER

Tip: Chelsea to win Outright @ 15/8 Stake: £££

Tip: Stake:

Robin van Persie @ 5/1 or 9/2 Half £ Each Way (Total stake of one £)

PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – TOP MIDLANDS CLUB

PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – TOP WEST HAM GOAL SCORER

Tip: Stoke City @ 11/8 Stake: £

Tip: Enner Valencia @ 6/4 Stake: £

PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – MAN CITY GOAL SCORER

PREMIER LEAGUE 2014/15 – TOP ASTON VILLA GOAL SCORER

Tip: Sergio Aguero @ 11/10 Stake: £

Tip: Stake:

Darren Bent @ 8/1 Half £

SCOTTISH LEAGUE ONE & LEAGUE TWO – OUTRIGHT WINNERS Tip: Stake:

DOUBLE – Dunfermline to win League One & East Fife to win League Two @ 6/1 £ Each Way (Total stake two £)

THE CHAMPIONSHIP 2014/15 – THREE BETS ON BRIGHTON...

LEAGUE ONE 2014/15 – TWO BETS ON BRISTOL CITY...

Tip: Stake:

Brighton to win the Championship @ 25/1 Quarter of a £

Tip: Stake:

Bristol City to win League One @ 8/1 Quarter of a £

Tip: Stake:

Brighton to finish in the Top 6 @ 3/1 Half £

Tip: Stake:

Bristol City to finish in the Top 6 @ 5/6 Three quarters of a £

Tip: Stake:

Brighton to finish in the Top Half @ 5/6 One and a quarter £

LEAGUE TWO – TOP SOUTH WEST CLUB Tip: Plymouth Argyle @ 5/4 Stake: £

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