TUESDAY 15 JULY 2014
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THE SPORTS BETTING PROFESSIONALS
2014 OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW... GOLF, THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP 2014 THUR 17TH – SUN 20TH JULY
The 2014 Open Championship is going to be as entertaining as ever with Royal Liverpool hosting just its second open in the last 46 years. This beautiful course was the venue of one of Tigers Woods’ finest Open performances, with the American taming the course back in 2006 following Robert De Vicenzo’s victory in 1967. I’ve had a poke back into the form of both of those victories – the record of Vicenzo’s win is pretty decent actually with fine weather for all of the four rounds – and Tiger’s victory was played in much the same circumstances with firm, fast conditions for the entire tournament.
THE 2014 COURSE… The course – which will play at 7,312 yards and has a par of 72 – is a Harry Colt design that, as is always the case with his courses, requires the kind of top drawer GIR* ability we all would expect from a links track. *GIR – Greens Hit in Regulation: This figure tells you the number of greens the golfer reaches in the ‘regulation’ number of strokes decided as fair for that particular hole. No ‘putting’ activity is figured in this stat. The course has changed slightly since Woods won in 2006 and together with the completely different conditions (significantly different to the sun baked rock hard fairways that carried forever eight years ago) but the same prerequisites will always hold firm as we will discuss a
little later in the ‘must-have stats’ section…
THE 2014 WEATHER FORECAST… Looking at the long range weather forecast and it looks like we’re in for a damp three, maybe four days, with light winds throughout the tournament. As is always the case with most courses, it’s the rain that falls before the four days that is just as important, and there’s a chance the course could have to field wet conditions for at least half of the seven days preceding the event. As for the tournament itself, the Met Office are currently forecasting rain on all four days of the event with conditions getting worse as the final rounds approach – but the wind isn’t going to be as bad as first thought which could lay up the course for the bombers like Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson – who could both overpower Hoylake with their power. The key aspect though is the softness of the course which, if the Met Office’s forecast is anywhere near accurate, will only get worse as the Open progresses.
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GOLF // THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP 2014
2014 – APPROACHES FROM 175-200 YARDS
Rounds
Average
Attempts
1
Paul Casey
42
28’ 4”
114
2
John Peterson
54
28’ 5”
137
3
Chad Campbell
45
28’ 9”
101
4
Angel Cabrera
50
28’ 11”
101
5
Dustin Johnson
52
29’ 3”
80
6
Kyle Stanley
73
29’ 5”
154
T7
Robert Garrigus
68
29’ 9”
155
T7
Ryan Moore
60
29’ 9”
109
9
Justin Rose
46
29’ 10”
80
10
Lucas Glover
60
29’ 11”
106
T11 Harris English
75
30’ 0”
138
T11 Will Wilcox
39 30’ 0” 63
13
Matt Every
66
30’ 2”
139
14
Peter Hanson
35
30’ 3”
70
15
Charley Hoffman
75
30’ 4”
154
16
Kevin Chappell
72
30’ 5”
157
17
Gary Woodland
67
30’ 7”
123
35
30’ 9”
66
T18 Joe Durant
T18 Bubba Watson 50 30’ 9” 62 20
Seung-Yul Noh
72
30’ 10”
125
21
Jim Renner
53
31’ 0”
113
22
Nick Watney
60
31’ 1”
104
23
Kevin Stadler
66
31’ 4”
118
24
Henrik Stenson
32
31’ 5”
50
T25 Ricky Barnes
72
31’ 6”
161
T25 George McNeill
65
31’ 6”
170
27
Matt Kuchar
63
31’ 7”
143
28
Ryo Ishikawa
61
31’ 9”
120
T29 Alex Aragon
33 32’ 0” 45
T29 Robert Streb
55
32’ 0”
109
T31 Zach Johnson
65
32’ 1”
159
THE DEFENDING CHAMPION…. There are plenty of question marks surrounding the defending champion – Phil Mickelson – who after kicking off his season with a runner-up spot in the UAE, has since failed to record a finish better than T11. The strange thing here is that Lefty has been in perfect health during this period and yet has still struggled to record the kind of consistency we’re used to seeing Mickelson achieve – especially in the short game department. He will have good vibes around here after finally working out how to tame such courses last year – but as far as a repeat win is concerned, his game just isn’t anywhere near where he would want it to be, and as we saw early doors in Scotland last week, there doesn’t look to be a form flipper in the tank.
‘THE MUST-HAVE STATS’… Driving accuracy and GIR stats will be vital and, as is usually the case, the better putters for the week will find themselves at the top of the leaderboard. Back in 2006, Tiger finished 1st for driving accuracy and 2nd for GIR – the plugging conditions might lessen the dependence on thread needle driving accuracy with carry, but that GIR stat will be as important as ever. The bleak conditions will make it vitally important to look at those players who are comfortable on links courses – and those that have the tools to manage their approach in a chocolate box of conditions that will no doubt be on show over the four days. After cross referencing each hole with the player’s average drive (allowing for the over playing factor due to the soft conditions) the one stat that could be a golden one for punters is the approach from 175-200 yards stat (see grid left), which will account for over half of the holes where a genuine second shot is required.
TOP SPANIARD... PABLO LARRAZABAL The barometer of Pablo Larrazabal is his Twitter feed – the great thing about social networking is that you can at least get a gauge of how a player is feeling and as far as Larrazabal is concerned, he’s in a pretty good place right now. He is certainly an erratic performer, but when his game is on he has the ability to move the ball effectively whilst adapting his game to testing conditions, which is why I fancy him to be a live outsider this week. His record around links style tracks in Europe is good and he’s on my shortlist in the Top Spaniard market.
THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP 2014 // GOLF
THE OUTRIGHT WINNER… My analysis of the Outright Winner market has been built on a foundation of the necessary stats combined with a look at their recent links course history – mining the players that have kept performing in similar ‘links’ conditions over the past couple of years… ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 EACH WAY Links form, GIR at selected events, driving accuracy – Zach ticks all the boxes, and I am particular interested in his combined GIR from <100 yards which is currently sitting in the Top 10. Zach Johnson has already proved he has what it takes to bring home the Major bacon – and it’s significant that his 2007 Masters win was in some of the worst conditions Augusta has seen for years. He shapes the ball beautifully with the wind – he’s as cool as a cucumber when others start chucking their clubs around and when I looked for ‘links/ seaside’ comparisons, he scored very highly indeed. He also has very respectable form at recent Open Championships and with a decent week of ball striking in the John Deere under his belt – ZJ is one for our Outright Winner shortlist.
JUSTIN ROSE @ 12/1 EACH WAY Justin Rose is coming to the boil nicely for this event. The key here is he not only ticks some of the ‘links’ boxes, but he also ticks some of the key stats boxes too – in fact when you combine all the must haves including the ‘approaches’ stat, Rose is one of the leading contenders for the 2014 crown. It’s true, his form of late in the Open hasn’t been great with three missed cuts in the last four Opens, but this isn’t a links problem, it’s more of a form problem with Rose struggling to peak at the right time for the big one. That doesn’t seem to be the case this year though with a winning performance in the Scottish Open boding well for his four-day stay in Liverpool.
TOP ASIAN... HIDEKI MATSUYAMA The Japanese superstar is one hell of a golfer – he’s a genuinely gifted player and at just 22 years of age to have already won six professional titles is simply staggering. The secret to his golfing prowess is one of the most impressive swings in the game and it’s one that allows him to hit a whole range a clubs to a really high level. The left arm of Hideki Matsuyama is one of the current wonders of the golf and it’s this inhuman ability to get such leverage that will keep him real safe around Hoylake this week. In a sentence – this swing just does not, and will not, breakdown – and that’s why he can nail tournaments at such a young age, like his playoff win this year at the Memorial Tournament. Four finishes inside the top 40 in his last five Majors, including two top 10’s illustrates the spine of this guy and with such a solid stat pack around this type of course, he looks a bet in the Top Asian Player market.
JOOST LUITEN @ 100/1 EACH WAY I first heard about this guy many, many years ago from a pal that knew his caddy reasonably well – the lad had some woeful problems with injuries early doors, but he has fought back well and is now playing to the expected standard. He is having a really solid season, especially with the short stick where he is currently carding a career best 29.26 putts per round. With Luiten it’s a real all or nothing story – as we saw in Scotland last week, the Dutchman can streak birdies and bogeys as if they are going out of fashion, but the bottom line is that this guy is worth a punt at a big price, especially with the conditions in mind.
BBC SPORTS PERSONALITY OF THE YEAR… And to finish off our 2014 Open Championship preview – an Open related wager in the 2014 BBC Sports Personality of the Year (‘SPOTY’) market where we reckon the 33/1 about Justin Rose is a great price Each Way with three places available. As far as SPOTY is concerned, golf has its fans, and when you consider that Rose is around a 20/1 chance for an Open Championship win (to a 100% betting book) it would be hard to keep him out of the frame with a victory given his story, his demeanour (is there a nicer bloke on the tour) and the resultant VT that would be SPOTY gold on the night. Make sure you get the full three places Each Way though as that is the big edge here – in such an uncompetitive year.
GOLF // THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP 2014
RECOMMENDED BETS... We’re placing six bets – see below for an explanation of how we’re dividing up our stakes: Player
Market
Justin Rose Zach Johnson Joost Luiten
The Open Championship Outright Winner The Open Championship Outright Winner The Open Championship Outright Winner
Pablo Larrazabal Top Spaniard Hideki Matsuyama Top Asian Justin Rose BBC Sports Personality of the Year
Price
Bookmaker
Min Price
Stake
12/1 EW 50/1 EW 100/1 EW
Betfair Sportsbook - 8 Places Betfair Sportsbook - 8 Places Betfair Sportsbook - 8 Places
12/1 50/1 80/1
£
N/A N/A 33/1 EW
N/A N/A W.Hill, Betfair Sportsbook
N/A N/A 33/1
£
BEST VALUE... Outright Winner market: The Betfair Sportsbook is the place to go for your fixed odds wagers – in a bid to increase their customer database, they are offering 8 places Each Way at 1/4 the odds which is super value. If you can’t get those terms, then take the best price you can at the best possible place terms – Paddy Power are, right now, offering 7 places on the Open Championship which is the best terms behind Betfair Sportsbook, but I’m sure other firms will join the party later in the week (play starts Thur 17th July). Top Spaniard and Top Asian markets: No prices available at the time of writing. We will update you on the prices for these when the markets are available (by 5.00pm Wed 16th July – the evening before play starts). Sports Personality of the Year market: Only bet with bookies offering 3 places Each Way. William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway and Winner.com all fit the bill, offering 1/5 odds for 3 places.
STAKING GUIDE… As far as the stakes are concerned, I want us to spread a one ‘£’ stake across the three players in the Outright Winner market, with the following strengths… • A total of 60% of stake on Justin Rose (so 30% Each Way) • A total of 30% of stake on Zach Johnson (15% Each Way) • A total of 10% of stake on Joost Luiten (5% Each Way) So, if your stake for one ‘£’ is £100 then you would have the following stakes… • A total of £60 of stake on Justin Rose (so £30 Each Way) • A total of £30 of stake on Zach Johnson (£15 Each Way) • A total of £10 of stake on Joost Luiten (£5 Each Way)
The remaining bets – in the Top Spaniard, Top Asian and Sports Personality of the Year markets – will also carry a total stake of one ‘£’ spread across the three players as follows… • A total of 20% of stake on Pablo Larrazabal to be Top Spaniard (so 20% To Win) • A total of 70% of stake on Hideki Matsuyama to be Top Asian (70% To Win) • A total of 10% of stake on Justin Rose to win Sports Personality of the Year (5% Each Way) So, if your stake for one £ is £100 then you would have the following stakes… • A total of £20 of stake on Pablo Larrazabal to be Top Spaniard (so £20 To Win) • A total of £70 of stake on Hideki Matsuyama to be Top Asian (so £70 To Win) • A total of £10 of stake on Justin Rose to win Sports Personality of the Year (so £5 Each Way)
The 2014 Open Championship takes place from Thur 17th July to Sun 20th July. Look out for bet updates on our site and by email throughout the week. Here’s to a profitable tournament... Best wishes, Brad Hayward & the team Pro Betting Network www.ProBettingNetwork.co.uk
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