THE
ISSUE 170 WEDNESDAY 16 APRIL 2014
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ISSUE
SNOOKER SPECIAL:
2014 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS The 2014 Snooker World Championships could mark a very important time in the history of the game. I’ve said for a while now that this could be Ronnie O’Sullivan’s finest hour and I was happy to back him back in June at odds of 5/1.
Ten months later and the greatest player ever to hold a cue is sitting on top of the World Championship betting at the odds of just 5/4 – which in all honesty looks a ridiculously short price to win five matches – however when you check out his draw, it’s easy to see why the bookies are ducking him… I’ve lost count of how many lopsided draws I’ve seen in the snooker World Championships. Last year’s draw was a pretty fair one, but prior to that, the cut has been, on some occasions, nothing short of bizarre – and 2014 fits that profile.
INSIDE THIS ISSUE... SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS Outright Winner SEE PAGES 1 & 2
SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS Quarter One Winner SEE PAGE 3
SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS Quarter Two Winner SEE PAGE 4
SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS Quarter Three Winner SEE PAGE 5
SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS Quarter Four Winner SEE PAGE 6
SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS Highest Break & Total Century Breaks SEE PAGE 7
RONNIE O’SULLIVAN TO WIN Let’s start with a recap of our Outright Winner bet on Ronnie O’Sullivan… I can’t remember a draw that comes close to this with Ronnie sitting on the top of the upper half and Ding Junhui on the bottom – with the likes of Mark Selby, John Higgins, Judd Trump, Stephen Maguire, Mark Allen and Neil Robertson all packed into the bottom half of the drawsheet.
THE BACKPAGE All the bets in this issue – at-a-glance. SEE PAGE 8
FOLLOW ALL YOUR BETS AT INSIDERBET.CO.UK
ISSUE 170 // Wednesday 16 April 2014
I’ll be taking a closer look at the four quarters on the upcoming pages, but as far as my overview of the Outright Winner market is concerned, that’s about as skewed as I’ve seen an outright draw for many years.
I backed Higgins each way for us back on February 14th so we get a payout of 12.5/1 on the place part about Higgins winning his first four matches – and 25/1 on the win part if he wins the whole thing.
But even still, I fancy Ronnie’s price of 5/4 will easily be beaten by the rollup tactic…
With this draw, that bet is now ranked as limited value – however that’s not to say Higgins hasn’t got a big run in him; on the contrary actually, this is just the kind of draw that he will relish chopping off and if he makes it, both the place part and the win part will be a healthy price.
If you were not with me back in June of last year – by simply rolling up your stakes round-by-round – I would say odds of 8/5 (2.60) would be achievable about O’Sullivan – barring of course a complete collapse by the better players in the top half of the draw. But even so, his opponent in the final would have still won four matches – and given the quality of the bottom half, those four match wins would likely be decent form. So with that being that case, it would be tough to make Ronnie any shorter than 4/11 in the final – that would infer he would be a 4/6 chance to win his opening four matches, the last of which could be against the inform Ding, who has just equalled Stephen Hendry’s record of winning five ranking events in one season. • If you are not already on the Rocket, odds of around 2.60 should be attainable by backing Ronnie round-by-round, and that would be my advised strategy – starting with a £5 stake on his first round match.
If you are not already on either Higgins or O’Sullivan, then I would recommend a rollup staking tactic on both players – which promises to pay off at a higher level than is currently available
ROLLING UP ON O’SULLIVAN AND HIGGINS Rolling up your stakes on O’Sullivan is easy – you just keep staking your winnings on the Rocket for the duration of the event. As far as Higgins is concerned we want the each way feature so we start with £3.00 and then bank half of the total prior to the final.
WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS 2014
Now for a look at our 25/1 Valentine’s Day wager on John Higgins…
A catalogue of shocks would make that price value, but other than that, the true win price for Higgins landing the 2014 World Championships could be as big as 33/1.
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TIP STAKE
£5.00
PRICE
Roll up match-by-match VARIOUS BOOKMAKERS – AT THE BEST PRICES
TIP
John has drifted since the draw was made – and you can see why!
Ronnie O’Sullivan to Win
John Higgins to Win
STAKE
Whilst Ronnie’s draw is gloriously soft, I’m afraid John Higgins has been dealt a nightmare with his route to the final potentially featuring the likes of a qualifier in the first round> Stuart Bingham in the second round> Mark Selby in the quarter final, followed by a semi-final against Neil Robertson, Mark Allen, Stephen Maguire or Judd Trump.
19th April – 5th May 2014
£1.50 Each Way
PRICE
JOHN HIGGINS TO WIN
OUTRIGHT WINNER
Roll up match-by-match VARIOUS BOOKMAKERS – AT THE BEST PRICES
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SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP 2014 // QUARTER ONE
QUARTER ONE The first of the four quarters of the World Championships draw is the one that features the red hot favourite Ronnie O’Sullivan and it looks a poor punting quarter to be honest. O’Sullivan is a 4/7 chance to win his three matches which – after his opener against a qualifier – will at the very worst will feature Joe Perry first up followed by either one of Shaun Murphy or Marco Fu in the quarter finals. O’Sullivan has a 10-2 lifetime record over Joe Perry, who to be fair has been in decent form this season. The last time Perry got a win over Ronnie was back in 2008 with his other win coming in 2008 also. Perry and O’Sullivan have only met once in the World Championships – in 1999 – and that went Ronnie’s way by 13 frames to 8. It’s a similar story against Shaun Murphy, who Ronnie has a career record of 7-2 over. The Londoner leads 2-1 in finals against Murphy and has a 1-0 record over the current World Number 4 at the World Championships. The last win Murphy had over the Rocket was back in 2011 in the Premier League where Shaun nicked a best of five by three frames to two. The player that could pose O’Sullivan the biggest danger – and he speaks quite highly of him in general – is Marco Fu. Over the course of twenty battles, Ronnie is leading 11-7 (with two Premier League draws) but when you flick back through the form it’s interesting to see how tight some of these matches have been. Ten of the 20 matches have finished with a winning margin of two frames or less with Fu winning their only meeting at the World Championships – that famous loss which saw Ronnie knock in a 147 in the seventh frame only to slump to an 8-3 deficit and then a 10-6 defeat that saw Fu hit 6 breaks of 50+ The bad news for Fu fans is that he would have to
beat a player that he has had plenty of problems with in the past – Shaun Murphy – to get his chance to knock out the current World Number One, with the Brit holding a solid 9-6 career record over Marco Fu. Murphy has won both of his World Championship meetings with Fu and given the contrast in styles, I would have to bet the Englishman as the 8/13 favourite to record what would be his tenth victory over Fu - if indeed that match happens. This is a poor quarter for punters – there doesn’t look to be much value in the market at all with Joe Perry probably the stand out at 12/1 – but built into that price is the fact he would have to beat O’Sullivan in the second round, and that alone would be a 4/1 chance
MY VERDICT FOR QUARTER ONE – NO BET QUARTER ONE – HEAD TO HEADS Ronnie O’Sullivan Joe Perry
10 2
Ronnie O’Sullivan Shaun Murphy
7 2
Ronnie O’Sullivan Marco Fu
11 7
Shaun Murphy Marco Fu
9 6
Shaun Murphy Joe Perry
5 4
Marco Fu Joe Perry
5 1
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ISSUE 170 // Wednesday 16 April 2014
SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP 2014 // QUARTER TWO
QUARTER TWO The second of the four quarters is another weak quarter that features one of the leading fancies for the tournament win – the inform Ding Junhui – who the bookmakers make an 8/13 chance to check out the three necessary wins.
Against Barry Hawkins, Ding is negative over the course of his career, with the Brit currently holding a career win/loss edge of 5-4 over the Chinaman. Ding has won their last two meetings, but you only have to look at the recent form of Hawkins to get a feel for how dangerous this match is for the tournament second favourite. And finally, against Ricky Walden, Ding is quite surprisingly winless, with Walden holding a career 3-0 advantage that has seen ‘Stamina man’ win 15 frames whilst losing just 7. Their last meeting was in the 2013 UK Championships where Walden ran out the 6-4winner and once again, Walden’s grinding style clearly does not suit. Unlike O’Sullivan, Ding certainly has not got a great history at the Crucible with an average 15-10 win loss in Sheffield – and when coupled with the above head to head data (even taking into account his form this season) I would find it hard to justify the odds about Ding checking out the second quarter. Look at the head to head stats of the players in the bottom of this second quarter paints a bland picture… The important game here is the second round match that could see Walden face Hawkins and as you can see, the pair are tied at six games apiece. Hawkins has won four of their last six meetings but as far as World Championship form is concerned, it’s one game each with both matches being close, drawn out affairs.
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Ding Junhui Mark Davis
4 2
Ding Junhui Barry Hawkins
4 5
Ding Junhui Ricky Walden
0 3
Mark Davis Barry Hawkins
2 3
Mark Davis Ricky Walden
2 1
Barry Hawkins Ricky Walden
6 6
WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS 2014 QUARTER TWO WINNER 19th April – 5th May 2014 TIP
Ding and Davis have only met once in the World Championships – in a qualifying match back in 2007 – and that went Ding’s way by 10 frames to 6.
QUARTER TWO – HEAD TO HEADS
Barry Hawkins to win Quarter Two
STAKE
Looking at the quarter head to heads, and to kick off Ding has a 4-2 lifetime record over Mark Davis, although the last time they played (in 2012) it was in fact Davis that got the better of the current World Number 10.
I’ve gone backwards and forwards on this portion of the draw and the only bet I could justify would be Barry Hawkins at 5/1 or better – unfortunately, the bookies have yet to release their quarter prices, but due to the fact that Ding is in this segment, 5/1 about Hawkins should be attainable – and given his form this season, that price would be worth a small bet
£2.50
PRICE
After taking on a qualifier in the first round Ding will at the very worst face Mark Davis in the second round followed by a quarter final against Barry Hawkins or Ricky Walden – in other words it’s a similar shape to Ronnie O’ Sullivan’s draw which features a series of matches where Ding will be seriously odds on.
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SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP 2014 // QUARTER THREE
QUARTER THREE Moving on to the third quarter, and as far as betting heats go this one is hot as you could wish for with the four big names dominating this section – all having some kind of valid claim to making the quarter finals. Mark Selby is the talking horse of the section and sits on top of the betting lists at 11/8 but losses to the likes of Dunn, Gilbert and Murphy over the past few weeks certainly doesn’t fill me with much confidence.
Higgins makes him the bet here in quarter three. The form of Higgins has been on the bubble for a while now – he’s right on the edge of something quite special and at his beloved Crucible, I’ll be backing him to take his place in the semi finals – at 7/2 or better
His head to head data isn’t bad though… If Selby can get past a qualifier in the first round he’ll likely have a second round match up against Ali Carter on his plate – and with a 10-4 career head to head against the Captain, Selby will certainly fancy his chances.
QUARTER THREE – HEAD TO HEADS Mark Selby Ali Carter
10 4
Their only World Championship meeting went the way of Selby by a narrow margin of just 13 frames to 12, and there’s no reason to expect anything other than another tight match up at Sheffield this year. In a nutshell, Carter is a bad draw for any player.
Mark Selby John Higgins Mark Selby Stuart Bingham
10 7
The winner of that match plays either Higgins or Bingham – and as you can see, Selby’s numbers against that pair are not bad at all.
John Higgins Ali Carter
12 4
John Higgins Stuart Bingham
7 4
WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS 2014 QUARTER THREE WINNER 19th April – 5th May 2014 TIP
I can only be with Higgins in this quarter. I respect the challenge of Selby, Carter and Bingham, but as far as the World Championships are concerned, it’s a totally different to winning some egg and spoon race over the best of five or seven frames and for that reason, the pedigree of
8 3
John Higgins to win Quarter Three
STAKE
Against Bingham, Selby leads the career series 10-7 – they are yet to meet at the World Championships, but Bingo is never an easy draw so we can expect another battle if the match takes place. And for that to happen, Bingham will likely need to beat John Higgins – a player that leads him 7-4 in the series department and a grim looking 4-1 in their last five meetings.
Ali Carter Stuart Bingham
£5.00
PRICE
Against Higgins, Selby is up 8-6 but to be fair to the Scot, he has won three of the last four meetings and Selby was lucky enough to meet Higgins four times when he was at his very worst during a period spanning 2007 and 2009.
8 6
7/2 or Greater BOOKMAKERS AVAILABLE LATER THIS WEEK
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ISSUE 170 // Wednesday 16 April 2014
SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP 2014 // QUARTER FOUR
QUARTER FOUR And finally… the fourth and final quarter, and once again, we have ourselves another genuine four horse race featuring some slick talents – three of which are as high on ego as they are on skill. The market leader for the bottom section of the draw is Neil Robertson who has the CV to justify such a position, but I’m afraid he hasn’t been at his best for a while now. That said, the Crucible will bring out the best in him, but he’ll need to come on a bundle from the player that has failed to hit his highest gears since winning the UK back in December. After a first round match against a qualifier, Robertson is drawn to face Mark Allen in the second round followed by a quarter final against, at the very worst, Maguire or Trump – but as you’ll see in a minute, this quarter is by far and away the toughest of the four sections to work out… Let’s kick off our head to head analysis with Robbo who has a fairly comfortable head to head series of 7-3 over Mark Allen – but from there it goes down hill with negatives against both Maguire (8-12) and Judd Trump (6-8).
barring that dire head to head against Maguire, shapes up well against his fourth quarter peers. As is always the case with Judd, it’s the distractions away from the table that destroy his game, but he seems to have kept his approach to the World Championships relatively professional this season and at 5/2 or better he looks the one to be with
QUARTER FOUR – HEAD TO HEADS Neil Robertson Mark Allen
7 3
Neil Robertson Stephen Maguire
8 12
Neil Robertson Judd Trump
6 8
It’s hard to place too much faith in the head to head stats alone, but in a combination with recent form and Crucible experience they do provide a decent pointer.
Judd Trump Stephen Maguire
1 8
It’s fair to say that Robertson is pretty steady overall, but the Australian still feels short at the price.
Judd Trump Mark Allen
6 7
The guys on the other side of this quarter are both missing pieces of the puzzle – Maguire for example has some decent numbers in Sheffield, but his form has been awful of late and is unbackable, whilst Trump hasn’t been in bad nick recently and has some solid Crucible form to lean on, but his head to head series against Maguire is dire, and just how much of a problem that poses is the big question.
Mark Allen Stephen Maguire
3 1
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TIP
19th April – 5th May 2014
Judd Trump to win Quarter Four
STAKE
This quarter is a toughie to sort out, but Judd Trump ticks too many boxes to let pass at 5/2 or better – he has been in decent nick recently, has some good Crucible form and
QUARTER FOUR WINNER
£5.00
PRICE
As for Mark Allen, well he certainly has the game to trouble the best, but he hasn’t shown it of late and looks the sort to choke away his chances again in the big one.
WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS 2014
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SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP 2014 // HIGHEST BREAK & TOTAL CENTURY BREAKS
HIGHEST BREAK
CRUICIBLE CENTURIES
One of the great aspects of the World Championship is that the playing conditions for the players are absolutely perfect – the tables and atmosphere are simply the best in the world and with some key players looking to be close to their best form, I can understand the confidence behind there being a big break…
This market is an interesting one this year – after one of the worst century performances for a long while in 2013, the question is, how the maxi or nothing approach of the modern day player will affect the 2014 totals.
I’ve waded through the last 17 years of World Championship figures and believe it or not, the Maxi is not as rare as you would think, with three of the six years seeing the top tournament break settled at 147. The further back you go the lower the strike rate becomes – but snooker is played differently these days where it’s all about making those maximums. And there are a few ‘maxi’ players that will be sniffing around the big one next week in Sheffield including Robertson, Higgins, Ding, Trump and of course O’Sullivan himself, the player that only a couple of days ago was saying how his career was now all about adding as many 147’s, tournament wins and World Championships to the CV. It’s a marginal call on the price, but the way the modern day player attacks the table these days the punter either has to back the under (expecting failures early in the break) or the 147 itself and given the form some of the top break builders are in right now, the 147 at 6/5 or better looks the call
HIGHEST BREAKS
CRUCIBLE CENTURIES 2013
2012 2011
2010
2009
23
20
27
Last 16
20
22
21
24
26
Q-Finals
8
11
13
9
19
S-Finals
2
7
13
6
8
Final
8
4
4
1
3
Total
51
71
74
60
83
WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS 2014
WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS 2014
TOP TOURNAMENT BREAK
TOTAL CENTURIES
19th April – 5th May 2014
19th April – 5th May 2014
Top Tournament Break - 147
TIP
27
Total Centuries: 65 – 74 inclusive
£3.00
STAKE
13
£5.00
6/5 or Greater
PRICE
Last 32
TIP
2001 ...... 140 2000 ...... 143 1999 ...... 142 1998 ...... 143 1997 ...... 147
With all of the above in mind, I’ll happily take 2/1 about 65 – 74 centuries inclusive – I’m not going to back overs as the maximum hunters will do their usual damage, but last year was an outlier so I’ll ignore that and go with a slight drop off from a solid 75 century mark
STAKE
2007 ...... 144 2006 ...... 140 2005 ...... 147 2004 ...... 145 2003 ...... 147 2002 ...... 145
Another factor here is the draw which in places gives the break builders a bit of a squeak – last year two of the four semi finalists were passive builders (Hawkins and Walden) with Trump woefully out of form. Only two centuries at this stage was the lowest tally for years… and by some way too.
PRICE
2013 ...... 143 2012 ...... 147 2011 ...... 138 2010 ...... 146 2009 ...... 147 2008 ...... 147
Last year it was a combination of the 147 hunt and just a generally poor standard that saw the line hit just 51 tournament centuries, but whilst I’m not expecting a 2014 tally in the high 70’s, I am expecting a marked improvement – especially given the century form of Trump, O’Sullivan and Higgins over the past month or so…
2/1
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ISSUE 170 // Wednesday 16 April 2014
BET SUMMARIES
THE BACKPAGE Here is a summary of your Insider bets this month. Seven tips in total – covering this month’s Snooker World Championships. In your next issue of The Insider magazine I’ll be turning my attention to Tennis – focusing on the next two Grand Slams the French Open and Wimbledon. The issue will be on your doormats and available online on Wednesday 14th May.
A WORD ABOUT YOUR STAKING ADVICE... All my tips have a recommended stake in ‘£’s not ‘Points’ – using a scale of £1 - £100 (£1 minimum bet to £100 maximum bet). Most bets will be around the £5 - £20 mark, with larger stakes reserved for what I consider outstanding opportunities. Of course, you are free to apply your own staking plan to suit your pocket – but this will provide a guide and also the marker for published results.
Mr X. SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS 2014 // 19th April – 5th May 2014
TIP
Ronnie O’Sullivan to Win
TIP
John Higgins to Win
STAKE
£5.00
STAKE
£1.50 Each Way
PRICE
Roll up match-by-match
PRICE
OUTRIGHT WINNER
Roll up match-by-match
VARIOUS BOOKMAKERS – AT THE BEST PRICES
QUARTER TWO WINNER
QUARTER THREE WINNER
QUARTER FOUR WINNER
TIP
Barry Hawkins to win Quarter Two
TIP
John Higgins to win Quarter Three
TIP
Judd Trump to win Quarter Four
STAKE
£2.50
STAKE
£5.00
STAKE
£5.00
PRICE
5/1 or Greater
PRICE
7/2 or Greater
PRICE
VARIOUS BOOKMAKERS – AT THE BEST PRICES
5/2 or Greater
TOP TOURNAMENT BREAK
TOTAL CENTURIES
TIP
Top Tournament Break - 147
TIP
Total Centuries: 65 – 74 inclusive
£3.00
STAKE
£5.00
6/5 or Greater
PRICE
BOOKMAKERS AVAILABLE LATER THIS WEEK
STAKE
BOOKMAKERS AVAILABLE LATER THIS WEEK
PRICE
BOOKMAKERS AVAILABLE LATER THIS WEEK
2/1
6/5 AT
2/1 AT
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