The Insider - Rugby League Special - February 2014

THE

ISSUE 168 WEDNESDAY 05 FEBRUARY 2014

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ISSUE

RUGBY LEAGUE 2014 SPECIAL: CASH-IN ON THE SUPER LEAGUE AND NRL...

The UK and Australian Rugby League seasons are promising plenty in the way of entertainment, but better than that, they’re also promising plenty in the way of profits. Especially the 2014 Super League, where I’m having a decent bet on Warrington to repeat their 2011 Regular Season win.

Getting the right blend of young talent and senior experience are two ingredients that any truly great side needs and Warrington’s 2014 squad fits the bill really well in these two departments – get ready for a dominating eight months of rugby by the Warrington Wolves!

INSIDE THIS ISSUE...

SUPER LEAGUE 2014 Regular Season Winner SEE PAGES 1 & 2

NRL 2014 Grand Final Winner SEE PAGE 3

NRL 2014 Who’s going to finish bottom SEE PAGE 4

SUPER LEAGUE 2014 Grand Final Winner SEE PAGE 5

SUPER LEAGUE 2014 Super League Specials SEE PAGE 6

WOLVES TO FINISH AHEAD OF THE PACK...

I was very interested to hear the comments of Warrington Wolves coach, Tony Smith upon his return from a pre-season training camp in Australia. The Wolves done something very similar in 2012, but the 2014 version of the tour was far more productive with the involvement of five NRL sides and their old pals from the Sydney Swans AFL team – a great way to sharpen up for the new Super League season.

SUPER LEAGUE 2014 // NRL 2014 Top Try Scorer & Daily M Medal Winner SEE PAGE 7

THE BACKPAGE All the bets in this issue – at-a-glance.

SEE PAGE 8

This Warrington squad is a very good unit – an excellent mix of the young

FOLLOW ALL YOUR BETS AT INSIDERBET.CO.UK

ISSUE 168 // Wednesday 05 February 2014 futures stars of the game and the senior foundations of the side that will guide the more inexperienced members through a long hard season. I’m particularly talking about the likes of Michael Monaghan and Ben Westwood who will share the captaincy in 2014.

Smith talked at length about how training with the likes of the Canterbury Bulldogs, Sydney Roosters, St George Illawarra Dragons, South Sydney Rabbitohs and Manly Sea Eagles will give them an edge in the forthcoming Super League season – and I couldn’t agree more.

Australia houses the world’s leading Rugby League personnel and to be honest, the game Down Under is for the most part on a different level to the one played on these shores.

The problem with Warrington is keeping their key players fit – but unlike years gone by, the young blood in the side is about as experienced as I’ve seen it.

AT ODDS OF 100/30, WARRINGTON LOOK A FANTASTIC BET FOR THE 2013 REGULAR SEASON…

“

...training with the likes of the Canterbury Bulldogs, Sydney Roosters, St George Illawarra Dragons, South Sydney Rabbitohs and Manlyy Sea Eagles will give them an edge in the forthcoming Super League season – and I couldn’t agree more.

“

top honours with St Helens and the Wolves.

St Helens will have their supporters in the market for sure and they certainly have a wonderful looking side, but when you line them up against Warrington, they look likely to come up a touch short. 2008 was the last time they landed the Regular Season, but whilst they have plenty of ground to make up on last year’s effort, this is their best team for a long while.

One team I cannot have this term is Wigan Warriors.

I know we were with them in 2013 and we hedged for a no lose situation, but as far as 2014 is concerned, the loss of more key players (no more so than Sam Tomkins) makes me a keen layer of their chances.

As far as Huddersfield Giants are concerned, I fancy it to be a similar story to the one down at Leeds. A good season, but ultimately,their all-important matches against the ‘Big Three’ will leave themshort in the points department.

Leeds Rhinos are a side brimming with talent and a place in the top three looks on the cards.

The 2014 Super League season is going to be one of the most competitive for years with five very good sides challenging for the Regular Season title – but this Warrington unit looks a potential beast of a team and one that I fancy to compete hard at both ends of the 2014 Super League season

Over the course of a season the Rhinos can be expected struggle a bit with their consistency though (as was the case last year at the death) but this is a very good squad that will end up fighting it out for the

SUPER LEAGUE 2014 REGULAR SEASON WINNER TIP

Warrington Wolves to win

STAKE

£10.00

PRICE

February – September 2014

10/3 (Minimum 3/1) 10/3 AT

[2]

3/1 AT

InsiderBet.co.uk

NRL 2014 // Grand Final Winner

NRL – GRAND FINAL WINNER Since the start of Australia’s NRL (National Rugby League) back in 1998 only six teams have managed to land both the Minor Premier (Regular Season) title and the Premier (Grand Final) title in the same year...

Let’s take a look at the main protagonists, starting with the South Sydney Rabbitohs…

The Rabbitohs have lost a few big names, and as was the case last year, that will hurt them deep in the season.

Nathan Peats going to the Eels is a blow to the outside backsand Roy Asotasi’s departure to the Warrington Wolves will leave a huge hole. The biggest loss for the club though is Andrew Everingham’s decision to accept a megabucks offer in Japan.

The Manly Sea Eagles haven’t set the world alight with their close season signings but in all truth they didn’t need to. They are easily one of the most talented sides in the NRL, with the likes of Brett and Glenn Stewart, Daly Cherry-Evans, Kieran Foran and Jamie Lyon a formidable team spine that will be looking to go one better than last year. Another big effort is expected.

As far as the Melbourne Storm are concerned, the loss of Gareth Widdop will hurt them as will the retirements of Jason Ryles and Brett Finch, but Craig Bellamy still has a super side under his control and one that will be strong late on in the season

2004

Canterbury-Bankstown

Sydney Roosters

2005

Wests Tigers

Parramatta

2006

Brisbane

Melbourne

2007

Melbourne

Melbourne

2008

Manly-Warringah

Melbourne

2009

Melbourne

St. George Illawarra

2010

St. George Illawarra

St. George Illawarra

2011

Manly-Warringah

Melbourne

2012

Melbourne

Canterbury-Bankstown

2013

Sydney Roosters

Sydney Roosters

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

Amongst a fantastic group of rugby league sides, it’s the Sydney Roosters that look the clear favourite to me.

The reigning NRL champions have made a few staff changes but they have retained the main players that make them a great side. The decision of Sonny Bill Williams to resign with the club is critical to their chances in 2014 – he was superb last season, and with that year under his belt, he’ll be even better this year.

There are no negatives – their elite defensive line is still intact (the best defence in the NRL by a mile) and with the fantastic Trent Robinson still in charge, I’m making them my main bet for Grand Final glory this season

NRL 2014 GRAND FINAL WINNER March – October 2014 TIP

THE CONTENDERS...

MINOR PREMIERS

Sydney Roosters to win

STAKE

Down Under, the winner of the Regular Season doesn’t carry the same kudos as it does in the UK and we need to keep that in mind – the Grand Final is what it’s all about.

And therefore, I’m going to be concentrating on that side of the season rather than trying to avoid the teams that get hit worst by the State of Origin matches (State of Origin = the annual series of three matches – separate to the NRL – between the states of New South Wales and Queensland).

PREMIERS

£5.00

PRICE

Last year the Sydney Roosters managed the feat, in 2010 St George Illawarra dominated both competitions and in 2007 Melbourne (who have since had both title stripped due to salary cap infringements) landed a perfect season.

11/2 (Minimum 5/1) 11/2 AT

5/1 AT

[3]

ISSUE 168 // Wednesday 05 February 2014

NRL 2014 // WOODEN SPOON

NRL – TO FINISH BOTTOM The ‘To Finish Bottom’ market (also known as ‘Least Wins’) looks a fairly open affair this year with seven teams leading the race for the NRL’s version of the wooden spoon.

No matter what the sport, players leaving one club to go to another club of a similar standing is never a good sign and that is exactly what has been happening down at Canberra Raiders. This isn’t a strong squad at the best of times but losing the likes of Sam Williams and Joel Thompson to the St George Illawarra Dragons is bad news for the club.

On top of the losses of Williams and Thompson, the troublesome Blake Ferguson has been released, Sandor Earl is banned, Joe Picker has fled to the Rabbitohs, Jonathon Reuben is off to the Roosters, Hayden Crockett has left to drop down to the Mackay Cutters with Dimitri Pelo off to Burleigh.

[4]

The Manly Sea Eagles have avoided the spoon in their 62 seasons of top flight rugby league membership – a record that stretches back to 1947.

The merged clubs (Wests Tigers, Northern Eagles or St George) have yet to ‘win’ a spoon

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

6/1 about the Raiders finishing bottom is a massive price – as we saw on a number of occasions last season, Canberra is rarely a settled side, and I would have them in at no bigger than 4/1 for last place in 2014…

NRL 2014 TO FINISH BOTTOM March – October 2014 TIP

In the arrivals lounge we have the likes of Blake Austin, Martin Taupau, Keith Lulia and Cory Paterson, along with returning crowd favourites Dene Halatau and Pat Richards – hardly a knockout roster, but with a clear run and less distractions off the field, the Tigers can avoid the 2014 Wooden Spoon.

AVOIDING THE SPOON

Canberra Raiders

STAKE

The Wests Tigers have lost a few players also with the headline departure without doubt Benji Marshall’s decision to swap codes and join the Auckland Blues in the Super 15.

Blake Ayshford, LoteTuqiri, Joel Reddy and Eddy Pettybourne are the other big names that have moved on, however just how much they will be missed is debatable.

Some of those players will be tough to replace and bringing in the likes of Lagi Setu (from the Melbourne Storm), Kyle O’Donnell (from the Panthers although he couldn’t make the team) and Kurt Baptiste (from the Broncos) is nowhere near a squad fix – in fact it leaves the Raiders with a series of significant negatives in a number of positions

£3.00

PRICE

Parramatta Eels will be thereabouts again – no surprises there, but for my money, they are not the ‘To Finish Bottom’ favourite. The big question where the Eels are concerned is whether or not they can effectively integrate their new recruits into the side in time to stave off a place on the bottom of the NRL ladder – I think they can, mainly because I have faith in the coach to get the likes of Will Hopoate, Lee Mossop, Nathan Peats and Corey Norman to gel quickly in the colours of Parramatta.

6/1 (Minimum 5/1) 6/1 AT

5/1 AT

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SUPER LEAGUE 2014 // WHAT’S IN STORE

SUPER LEAGUE – WHAT’S IN STORE...

THE TIME HAS COME FOR A STREAMLINING OF THE SUPER LEAGUE – THERE HAS BEEN MUCH CHAT ABOUT THE PROCESS FOR A FEW YEARS AND THE ANNOUNCEMENT BY THE RFL THAT WE WILL BE RETURNING TO A RELEGATION SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2009 IS, I THINK, GOOD NEWS FOR THE SPORT.

ALL CHANGE FOR NEXT SEASON...

2014 SUPER LEAGUE GRAND FINAL

The top two divisions are to run with 12-team leagues from 2015 – from there, the 12 teams in both the Super League and Championship will play each other twice before the league breaks into three groups of eight. The top 8 Super League clubs will form a league which will contest the Super League Finals. The bottom 4 Super League clubs and top 4 Championship clubs will compete for four places in the following season’s Super League. The remaining Championship clubs will compete to avoid relegation to Championship 1.

The Grand Final is always a tricky market to catch right, but there’s a couple of prices that I want to take today – the 7/2 about Warrington which is massive, and the 6/1 about Leeds which given their Grand Final pedigree is also decent value.

The teams in the three leagues will play every other team in its league of eight once, with teams in the top and bottom group retaining their points from the first part of the season and those in the middle group starting from zero

#MAGICWEEKEND

I’ve already discussed the positives surrounding Warrington, but as far as Leeds are concerned, their Grand Final history makes the 6/1 well worth taking for a small bet.

The Rhinos squad is shaping to be a side that could beat anyone on their day, but over the course of a long season, their lack of consistency could put a hefty dent on their Regular Season chances. The Grand Final set up is far more conducive to their style and with five Grand Final wins since 2007 the history books agree. Leeds at 6/1 looks decent value

SUPER LEAGUE 2014

TIP

February – October 2014

Warrington Wolves to win

STAKE

The action kicks off at 12:30pm on Saturday May 17th with the London Broncos playing Catalan Dragons. At 2:45pm Widnes and Salford face off which is followed by the Hull derby at 5:00pm.

GRAND FINAL WINNER

£3.00

PRICE

Magic Weekend 2014 is going to be the highlight of the Regular Season calendar. Seven matches, played over one weekend, at the Etihad Stadium which will be packed to the brim.

7/2 (Minimum 7/2)

The first day ends with the defending champions Wigan Warriors taking on the 2012 Grand Final winners the Leeds Rhinos – an epic finish to what will be super day of Rugby League.

TIP STAKE

And to close the show it’s the big one, Warrington versus St Helens – a matchup between the two sides that I fancy to fill the top two spots on the Regular Season ladder this season

Leeds Rhinos to win £3.00

PRICE

Sunday begins with the Wakefield Trinity Wildcats taking on the Castleford Tigers at 12.30pm which will be followed by the 2013 Regular Season winners, the Huddersfield Giants taking on the Bradford Bulls.

7/2 AT

6/1 (Minimum 6/1) 6/1 AT

[5]

SUPER LEAGUE 2014 // SPECIALS

ISSUE 168 // Wednesday 05 February 2014

SUPER LEAGUE – SPECIALS The bookmakers have been quite proactive with their Rugby League specials markets this season. And I’m well happy to have found three season long match bets for us to attack – all of which have been matched up brilliantly for the punter with a perfect combination of season positives matched up against season negatives…

To kick off, my strongest opinion of the season – a team that I feel will be near on unbeatable paired up with a side that I fancy to have a regression year. Namely Warrington to beat Wigan…

REGULAR SEASON MATCH BET – WARRINGTON WOLVES TO BEAT WIGAN

REGULAR SEASON MATCH BET – WIDNES TO BEAT CASTLEFORD

SUPER LEAGUE 2014 REGULAR SEASON WINNER ‘WITHOUT THE BIG 4’

I’ve already spoken about the chances of Warrington and Wigan in my preview of the Regular Season (see page 2) – and when using my prices as a guide to the ‘match’ prices, there’s quite a discrepancy.

Widnes look to have a really good side for the 2014 season. There will be regression after what was an incredible 2013 effort, but the signing of Danny Tickle fits their tactical ethos brilliantly and his experience will soften the blow of backing up what was in all honesty a flattering 22 point season last year.

Paddy Power have taken a chance here in betting Huddersfield Giants at 8/11 to win the ‘Without the Big 4’ market.

Even if you take the best possible view about Salford, Hull and the Catalans, it’s still hard to merit going 8/11 the Giants…

I have Warrington in at 5/2 for the Regular Season title with Wigan in at 4/1 (total book prices to 100%) and using those odds to construct a season match, I get 1.70 – 2.42, so I’m taking the 4/5.

Wigan definitely got the rub last year, and for that reason the Warriors remind me a lot of Man United – hence my regression comments earlier.

Shaun Wane is a great coach, but he will be doing very well to nail a place in the top 3 this season and at 4/5, the Wolves look a great bet against them

I make Widnes the strong favourites here so I’m very happy to take Even Money

Using a more realistic set of win only prices 7/1 Huddersfield (Top Price) – 33/1 bar – would result in the Giants being about an 8/13 chance to take away the ‘Without the Big 4’ market which feels a better price (to 100%) than the 8/11. Just a small bet at the price, but one that’s worth having onside

8/11 AT

TIP

TIP

Huddersfield Giants to win

STAKE

£10.00

STAKE

£5.00

Evens (Minimum 4/5)

PRICE

4/5 (Minimum 8/11)

Widnes to beat Castleford

PRICE

February – September 2014

TIP

WITHOUT THE BIG 4

February – September 2014

STAKE

REGULAR SEASON MATCH BET

PRICE

SUPER LEAGUE 2014

£10.00

[6]

Castleford on the other hand have it all to do to in 2014 – without their star player Rangi Chase who has been at the top of the production tables for many years now.

The bookmakers have failed to take this factor into account with their pricing and the big mistake some firms have made here is using their outright prices to frame their match prices.

The mistake Paddy seem to have made here is trying to extend the outright prices into a set of season group prices for Huddersfield et al – those ‘win’ prices are also based on the book being bet each way, and that obviously skews the shape of the market.

SUPER LEAGUE 2014

Warrington to beat Wigan

4/5 AT

Added to the big advantage that their artificial pitch gives them, and Widnes look a side that is well capable of maintaining a place inside the top 10 of the Super League table.

8/11 (Minimum 8/11)

EVANS AT

8/11 AT

InsiderBet.co.uk

RUGBY LEAGUE 2014 // SUPER LEAGUE: TOP TRYSCORER – NRL: DAILY M MEDAL

SUPER LEAGUE

NRL

I fancy two players are going to dominate the Super League Regular Season try scoring tables this season; Josh Charnley and Ryan Hall, and of that number, I’m backing Ryan Hall to just nick the ‘Top Try Scorer’ gong at the competitive price of 7/1…

There’s no correlation between league success and winning the Daily M Medal – only three of the past ten medal winners have been from either a Minor Premiership winner or a Premier winning side.

TOP TRY SCORER @ 7/1 DAILY M MEDAL WINNER

Hall has been a fantastic player for Leeds, with 156 tries in 193 games for the Rhinos, and I fancy the 26 year old to have a terrific 2014 season playing for a side that looks in excellent shape.

The Rothwell born Hall is one of the best wingers in the game who has the ability, pace and size to dominate players – and after hearing his views on the forthcoming season in an interview a couple of weeks ago, it’s clear that he fancies himself to have a massive year in 2014 after a comparatively lean 2013.

Try-scoring wingers don’t just fall off their form for no good reason, last term it was simply a lack of service that cost him in the try count department.

However prior to that 15 try season, Hall had managed to pocket 27 tries in 2012, 28 in 2011, 24 in 2010 and 31 in 2009.

One player stands out a mile in 2014 and that’s Daly Cherry-Evans who at odds of 10/1 is a very back-able price.

Cherry-Evans had a brilliant season in 2013 – he was the only No. 7 in the NRL to hit the kind of numbers he secured in the four key departments – Tries, try assists, line breaks and line break assists – and his defensive work was remarkable given his worth in attack.

This guy scored 11 tries, registered 14 try assists, 13 line breaks yet he still had the ‘time’ to track back to average 22 tackles a game – and he has a super kicking boot also…

Last season, Grand Finalist Cherry-Evans was awarded the Clive Churchill Medal (Man of the Match in the Grand Final) despite being on the losing side – but that’s the impact Daly has when he plays, with the score being for the most part irrelevant.

SUPER LEAGUE 2014

NRL 2014

REGULAR SEASON – TOP TRY SCORER

DAILY M MEDAL WINNER

February – September 2014

March – October 2014

TIP

Ryan Hall

TIP

Daly Cherry-Evans

STAKE

£2.50 – Each Way*

STAKE

£2.50

7/1 (Minimum 6/1)

PRICE

It was a bit early for a Daily M Medal award (he came second behind Cooper Cronk) but few would disagree, he had future winner written all over him. 10/1 is good value and well worth a small bet

PRICE

Players like Hall that know how to score 25+ tries in a season are few and far between and with a strong supporting act behind him, I’ll be backing Ryan each way in 2014

Just like the Regular Season MVP in the NFL, this award is all about skill and a player’s ability to perform at the highest level.

10/1 (Minimum 8/1)

7/1 AT

13/2

6/1 AT

10/1 AT

8/1 AT

*Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 places

[7]

ISSUE 168 // Wednesday 05 February 2014

BET SUMMARIES

THE BACKPAGE Here is a summary of your Insider bets this month. Ten tips in total – covering the 2014 English Super League and Australian NRL seasons. In your next issue of The Insider magazine I’ll be turning my attention to Motor Sport – ready for the start of the new Formula One season...

The issue will be on your doormats and available online on Wednesday 12th March.

A WORD ABOUT YOUR STAKING ADVICE...

All my tips have a recommended stake in ‘£’s not ‘Points’ – using a scale of £1 - £100 (£1 minimum bet to £100 maximum bet).

Most bets will be around the £5 - £20 mark, with larger stakes reserved for what I consider outstanding opportunities. Of course, you are free to apply your own staking plan to suit your pocket – but this will provide a guide and also the marker for published results.

Mr X.

SUPER LEAGUE 2014 // February – September 2014

10/3 AT

TIP

TIP

Leeds Rhinos to win

£3.00

STAKE

£3.00

7/2 (Minimum 7/2)

PRICE

10/3 (Minimum 3/1)

Warrington Wolves to win

STAKE

STAKE

£10.00

GRAND FINAL WINNER

PRICE

TIP

Warrington Wolves to win

PRICE

REGULAR SEASON WINNER

6/1 (Minimum 6/1)

3/1 AT

7/2 AT

Warrington to beat Wigan

Widnes to beat Castleford

Huddersfield Giants to win

Ryan Hall

£10.00

£10.00

£5.00

£2.50 – Each Way*

STAKE

4/5 (Minimum 8/11)

Evens (Minimum 4/5)

8/11 (Minimum 8/11)

7/1 (Minimum 6/1)

PRICE

EVANS AT

8/11 AT

4/5 AT

8/11 AT

7/1 AT

13/2

TIP

TIP

REGULAR SEASON TOP TRY SCORER

STAKE

REGULAR SEASON WITHOUT THE TOP 4

PRICE

REGULAR SEASON - MATCH BET

6/1 AT

6/1 AT

GRAND FINAL WINNER

TO FINISH BOTTOM

DAILY M MEDAL WINNER

TIP

Sydney Roosters to win

TIP

Canberra Raiders

TIP

Daly Cherry-Evans

STAKE

£5.00

STAKE

£3.00

STAKE

£2.50

PRICE

11/2 (Minimum 5/1)

PRICE

6/1 (Minimum 5/1)

PRICE

NRL 2014 // March – October 2014

10/1 (Minimum 8/1)

11/2 AT

5/1 AT

6/1 AT

5/1 AT

10/1 AT

8/1 AT

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