WEDNESDAY 3 SEPTEMBER 2014
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THE SPORTS BETTING PROFESSIONALS
13 WAYS TO CASH-IN ON THE NFL THIS SEASON... NFL: 2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW
PACKERS THE VALUE SUPER BOWL PICK AT 12/1!
At double the odds of the favourite, the Green Bay Packers look the value in the Super Bowl XLIX winner market this season. The bookmakers have been quick to forget just how good Aaron Rodgers is, and with a better rub of the green in the injury department this season (any kind of rub would be nice) the Cheeseheads are bordering on being one of the best value Super Bowl wagers in a long while. I’m not saying Green Bay are perfect – they have their issues on both sides of the ball, including a less-thangreat offensive line and a far-from-dominating defense. But, as is the case when analyzing sports such as NFL, the key is the sum of the parts at their disposal and as long as they have Aaron Rodgers behind the gun that sum is very high. It’s the exact situation as the one we have down at Denver – the only difference being… the Packers are double the price.
OFFENSE… Green Bay has a selection of playmaking weapons including the fantastic RB Eddie Lacy who pulled out a fantastic series of performances last season when the Packers were missing Aaron Rodgers through injury. Receiver Jordy Nelson is regarded as being one of the few genuine elite receivers in the NFL. Even with Rodgers missing, he completed 85 receptions for 1,314 yards last term which, numbers wise, was his best season ever since he turned pro in 2008
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NFL // 2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW
COACH… And then we have the coach Mike McCarthy. Who not only is one of the best game day callers in the NFL right now, he also has a phenomenal relationship with his quarterback. And after reading through numerous camp reports, the results of the Rodgers/ McCarthy double act have been very encouraging. The key to my pick though, isn’t solely centered around the strength of the Packers team. It’s more a combination of the roster together with the hairline cracks that are appearing around the other sides – namely Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers…
TOUGH SCHEDULE FOR THE DEFENDING CHAMPS…
LAMBEAU FIELD A REAL HOME EDGE
The average temperature is uncomfortably below freezing - the lowest for the league’s open-air stadiums. The Lambeau ‘mystique’ still haunts the opposition now and with a 61% win rate at home, this is a massive edge for the Packers. The stadium design remains the same – the seating structure makes the 75000 sell outs sound like 100k+ And Randall Cobb who, as the months pass, is developing a real connection with Rodgers. He is coming off the back of one of his best preseasons ever and is looking like a key member of the Packers unit right now.
DEFENSE… The loss of B.J. Raji for the season is a blow, but we have Clay Matthews back as sound as a pound which will make a huge difference in the pass rush department and A.J Hawk is another member of the Green Bay team that can be relied upon to always put in a solid performance. First round draft pick Ha Clinton-Dix is going straight into the side – he has come with a huge reputation and as one of the best safeties in his class, the Packers spent very wisely there.
Starting with Seattle, and after being bullish about their chances a few months ago, the release of their schedule, together with the slight doubts I have about their offensive line, has resulted in a flip flop of opinion. They are the best ‘side’ in the NFL, but whilst repeating is tough (for eight straight years now, the defending champ has either not made the playoffs or hasn’t gotten past its first playoff game) their awful schedule has made that feat even tougher. The would need that number one seed and that’s going to be a really tough ask given the way their game map has fallen.
OFF PITCH PROBLEMS COULD HURT SAN FRANCISCO… The Niners look solid on the team sheet, but I have two concerns here. The QB and the off pitch problems that right now are threatening to derail what should’ve been a legitimate Super Bowl bid. NaVorro Bowman’s health and the uncertain availability of Aldon Smith is enough for me to give them a slight fade – but there’s no doubt Harbaugh has the management tools to turn things around. Green Bay has the schedule to grab that number one seed and that’s what I’m backing to make all the difference on the road to Super Bowl XLIX! NFL, SUPER BOWL XLIX - OUTRIGHT WINNER Tip: Green Bay Packers to win Super Bowl XLIX Stake: £ Bookies: 12/1 @ William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, Bet Victor & Bet Fred
2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW // NFL
NFC EAST PBN Team Reg Wins
Bookmakers Reg Wins
Variance +/-
Super Bowl Price
Division Price
Conference Price
Philadelphia
9
9
0
28/1
7/5
14/1
Washington
8
7.5
0.5
66/1
4/1
30/1
New York Giants
8
8
0
66/1
7/2
28/1
Dallas
6
7.5
-1.5
50/1
9/2
25/1
This division was pure theatre last season and as you can see by my numbers, I’m expecting a similar schedule this season too, with the top three teams in the NFC East pretty closely matched. Philly are looking solid preseason and if Nick Foles repeats the throwing accuracy he did in 2013, the Eagles could nab more than 9 wins – the problem is, repeating that feat is going to be very tough. Washington are another team that look to have been assessed well by the bookies – RG3 will give the situation his best attention, but there have been a lot of tweaks to the
Redskins team and a split 8-8 season looks ballpark. The New York Giants have taken in a lot of experience over the offseason and that’s going to count for plenty. It’s very hard to make a call from here on an 8 game line though, the one thing I would say, is that the upside on that number is low. There is a little bit of room in the Dallas line though – mainly due to what I see as one of the worst defense’s in the NFL. Losing DeMarcus Ware, Sean Lee and Jason Hatcher is a tough deal for the Cowboys and I think it will cost them in the wins department.
NFC NORTH PBN Team Reg Wins
Bookmakers Reg Wins
Variance +/-
Super Bowl Price
Division Price
Conference Price
Green Bay
11
10.5
0.5
12/1
8/11
8/1
Chicago
8
8.5
-0.5
40/1
7/2
18/1
Detroit
8
8.5
-0.5
50/1
7/2
25/1
Minnesota
5
6
-1
125/1
22/1
66/1
I have Green Bay in as a serious 11 win team this season and as I’ve already outlined in my Super Bowl preview, a favorable draw will be a massive part of their success. The line of 10.5 feels fine, but their Division price is too big at 8/11. The Chicago defense is going to be the issue here and I just get the feeling that they will need another year of building before they have the quality on both sides of the ball to seriously threaten the Packers. A good offense – but not one that can make up for their defensive shortfalls.
The Detroit Lions didn’t finish last season very well and I have concerns on both sides of the ball with their defense looking vulnerable and their offense looking pretty blunt late on last term. There is no bet at 8 wins and their divisional price is of no interest. And finally the Vikings, who have given away their home field advantage this season with the redevelopment of the Metrodome, have a 16 road match season in 2014.
NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS
NFL – NFC NORTH DIVISIONAL WINNER
Tip: Dallas Cowboys - Under 7.5 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 10/11 @ Boylesports 5/6 @ William Hill & Skybet
Tip: Green Bay Packers to Win Stake: £ Bookies: 8/11 @ Ladbrokes, Coral & Bet Fred
NFL // 2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW
NFC SOUTH PBN Team Reg Wins
Bookmakers Reg Wins
Variance +/-
Super Bowl Price
Division Price
Conference Price
New Orleans
10
10
0
14/1
5/4
9/1
Tampa Bay
9
7
2
66/1
13/2
40/1
Carolina
8
8.5
-0.5
50/1
9/2
22/1
Atlanta
7
8.5
-1.5
50/1
4/1
20/1
Another tightly contested division and one that could well generate a few surprises – but it’s impossible to get away from the Brees led New Orleans that are looking in far better shape on both sides of the ball than they have for a long while. The New Orleans Saints have a fantastic roster this season with a powerful offense supported by a much improved defense. This is one hell of a division and whilst I’m tempted by the Saints, there is better value elsewhere. I’m really excited about the fortunes of Tampa this term. Lovie Smith is a great guy and new QB Josh McCown will pick off those towers
with ease. The seven win line is too low and a good looking buy. Cam Newton will no doubt have a solid year in 2014, but on offense, the Panthers don’t have enough elite players to make a difference in their NFC South head-to-heads – 8 wins is all I can find. And finally the Falcons, who are getting just 7 wins from me in 2014 mainly due to their shortfalls in both the pass rush and pass protection departments – 8.5 wins is too high, but I’m only playing one Regular Season position in the NFC South and that’s a long position on Tampa @ 7.
NFC WEST PBN Team Reg Wins
Bookmakers Reg Wins
Variance +/-
Super Bowl Price
Division Price
Conference Price
Seattle
10
11
-1
6/1
23/20
7/2
San Francisco
10
10.5
-0.5
9/1
6/4
9/2
Arizona
8
7.5
0.5
40/1
9/1
22/1
St Louis
6
7.5
-1.5
100/1
20/1
33/1
The best division to analyse from a champagne perspective with two of the best teams in the NFL going head-to-head… As Super Bowl champions, the Seahawks are lined up to be shot at and the fact that they have five road games against 2013 playoff teams is a really tough assignment. 10 wins feels right to me. I would take a big price they settle on exactly that number. The Niners are suffering from some significant off field problems and that has to be annoying for their fans given the plethora of positives they have on the roster this season. 10 wins again feels right. NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS Tip: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over 7 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 19/20 @ Stan James 10/11 @ 32Red 8/11 @ Totesport, William Hill & Bet Fred
The Cardinals won’t be getting 10 wins this season – not with 8 games against 2013 playoff teams. Their overachievements last season will ensure they are respected whoever they play – and that will hurt them. And finally the Rams who have lost Sam Bradford for the season – that’s a terrible blow for St Louis who have had more than their fair share of problems for the past couple of seasons. The 7.5 wins line is too high – but there isn’t enough of that price to merit a bet unfortunately.
2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW // NFL
AFC EAST PBN Team Reg Wins
Bookmakers Reg Wins
Variance +/-
Super Bowl Price
Division Price
Conference Price
New England
12
10.5
1.5
8/1
1/3
7/2
New York Jets
7
7.5
-0.5
80/1
10/1
33/1
Miami Dolphins
7
7.5
-0.5
66/1
13/2
22/1
Buffalo Bills
7
6.5
0.5
125/1
16/1
45/1
The Patriots will have the AFC East all to themselves again this season. The New England camp looked awesome and Brady’s rich history against divisional opposition will continue in 2014 – 1/3 looks a decent price and the line looks a game low too.
as far as their offense is concerned, there still looks to be a distinct lack of quality in the side – and losing Mike Pouncey will make life tough for the Fins. Seven wins looks about right and it’s very hard to make a case for going long or short about that line.
The Jets are solid on defense, but their offensive line is not so efficient and having Vick waiting in the wings might not bring out the best in Geno Smith. Chris Johnson might well be the player who makes the most out of the situation.
And finally the Bills, who, like Miami, are in the rebuild stage at the moment with the likes of EJ Manuel probably a year away from being able to carry this Buffalo team through thick and thin. This is a good team though and one that will look after themselves in 2014. At a line of just 6.5, the Bills are probably a marginal buy – but not strong enough for an account bet.
Miami have been in the rebuild stage for a while now and
AFC NORTH PBN Team Reg Wins
Bookmakers Reg Wins
Variance +/-
Super Bowl Price
Division Price
Conference Price
Pittsburgh
10
9
1
40/1
11/5
16/1
Cincinnati
9
9
0
33/1
11/5
14/1
Baltimore
8
8.5
0.5
40/1
5/2
14/1
Cleveland
4
6.5
-2.5
80/1
15/2
33/1
The Steelers had a shocker last season, but take away that bad start and they would’ve comfortably popped the line that I loaded up on. Nothing has changed as far as my numbers are concerned. Big Ben will lead this offense to a very good season, it’s just a shame there’s no 8 line around.
Baltimore will miss Ray Rice badly and together with yet more off-field distractions I’m expecting the Ravens to do no better than an 8/9 win season. Their post-Super Bowl hangover will hang around another year at least – and if anything they look a team to short this season.
The Bengals were superb last season and they have a deep roster for 2014 – the one negative is losing both coordinators to head coaching jobs and in a sport like this, that factor cannot be underestimated. The line of 9 looks perfect to me.
The Cleveland line of 6.5 looks very high and is the standout bet in the AFC North. The team is still in the middle of a rebuild and is yet to assemble a unit capable of bettering a 6-10 season. We have the Browns in for 4 wins in 2014 and we’re only that high due to our expectations for a strong finish to the season for Cleveland.
NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS
NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS
Tip: New England Patriots - Over 10.5 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 8/11 @ Sporting Bet 4/6 @ Skybet & Coral
Tip: Cleveland Browns - Under 6.5 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 13/10 @ William Hill 6/5 @ Ladbrokes & Skybet
NFL // 2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW
AFC SOUTH PBN Team Reg Wins
Bookmakers Reg Wins
Variance +/-
Super Bowl Price
Division Price
Conference Price
Indianapolis
12
9.5
2.5
25/1
4/6
10/1
Tennessee
7
7
0
200/1
13/2
40/1
Houston
7
7.5
-0.5
66/1
14/5
20/1
Jacksonville
7
5
2
400/1
18/1
100/1
The AFC South division has seen a big change over the last year with Houston usurped as the favourite by the impressive Colts – but the bookies seem to have underestimated Indianapolis’ regular wins total… by around 1 to 2 wins in our book… Andrew Luck was a great acquisition by the Colts and they are reaping the fruits of that pick right now. Luck gives them chances on offense whenever they are on the park and with another year of building, they are looking every inch a playoff team. The Titans have one of the more solid D’s in the NFL but their ability to score will let them down – last season, the Titans failed to score 20 points in half of their regular season matches and I’m not expecting
that situation to change in time to figure in the AFC South. Houston will be better than they were in 2013 – their reshuffled D will help JJ Watt dominate again, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, the team will be limited on offensive production. It will take a couple of years to get Houston back where they were in 2012 and I’m afraid their fans will have to make do with a wildcard at the very best. Gus Bradley takes over the Jags and he has brought some Seahawks D with him which will really sharpen up their back line. On the other side of the ball though things aren’t so good – last season they posted 13 games where they failed to exceed 20 points and I could see at least 9 of their 2014 matches going the same way.
AFC WEST PBN Team Reg Wins
Bookmakers Reg Wins
Variance +/-
Super Bowl Price
Division Price
Conference Price
Denver
11
11.5
-0.5
13/2
2/7
5/2
San Diego
9
8
1
50/1
13/2
16/1
Kansas
8
8
0
50/1
8/1
18/1
Oakland
5
5
0
200/1
33/1
100/1
The AFC West is one of the best divisions in the NFL for entertainment – but as you can see by the above figures, the bookmakers have this one spot on… Denver looks the rightful favourite here but odds of 2/7 are obviously too short to take – that’s not saying that there’s any value anywhere else in the market, but as far as value goes, there’s nothing in this price for us. San Diego had a great season last year and I’m expecting them to record another decent stretch in the AFC West. Rivers has a few players back so we can naturally expect the offense to be stronger and their D was solid last term so the foundations are there for
another run into the playoffs. Many are forgetting the Kansas City Chiefs finished the season 2-6 and in such a tough division it’s hard to see them busting 8 wins by much – if at all. Alex Smith done really well to get the Chiefs such an inflated start; but the correction happens this year and they are a 2014 fade for me. Finally, Oakland, who have to accommodate a whole host of new faces with Matt Schaub, Maurice Jones-Drew, Justin Tuck and promising rookie Khalil Mack among the many new faces on the team. This is going to be a foundation season for the Raiders and 5 wins looks the perfect line.
NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS
NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS
Tip: Indianapolis Colts - Over 9.5 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 23/20 @ Coral, 11/10 @ Bet Victor Evens @ Ladbrokes & Bet Fred
Tip: Jacksonville Jaguars - Over 5 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 5/6 @ Paddy Power
2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW // NFL
‘REGULAR SEASON SPECIALS’ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS TO REACH THE PLAYOFFS… I like the look of the Chargers chances this season. My foundations for betting them to reach the playoffs hinge on the let-down of both Oakland and Kansas in their division which, coupled with their stronger roster, gives Rivers more weapons. And many forget that they conceded a paltry 17 points a game in the final half of last season which is one hell of a number to build on in 2014. Offers of 2/1 and greater about the Chargers making the playoffs look decent value and worth a small wager…
NFL - NAME THE FINALISTS… I’m settled on Green Bay, but I’m caught between the Broncos and the Patriots for the second half of my finalist stab. The Broncos and the Pats are both going to have excellent seasons. I really like the look of the Denver draw (that’s why we’ve already backed them to win their Conference) but the more the season approaches, I also liking the chances of the Pats to perform well too with Brady swimming in pass options after what was a terrible regular season for him to handle in 2013. A small bet on both finals is the call…
NFL – TO REACH THE PLAYOFFS
NFL - NAME THE FINALISTS
Tip: San Diego Chargers to reach the Playoffs Stake: £ Bookies: 21/10 @ Bet Victor 2/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power
Tip 1: Tip 2: Stake: Bookies:
Green Bay Packers/ Denver Broncos Green Bay Packers/ Denver Broncos Quarter of a £ on each Green Bay/ Denver @ 28/1 Ladbrokes Green Bay / New England @ 40/1 Ladbrokes
CALVIN JOHNSON – MOST RECEIVING YARDS…
BACK RODGERS TO BE MVP @ 6/1…
The single most dangerous offensive receiving threat in the NFL – Calvin Johnson – with 206 receptions, 17 touchdowns and a 17 yard-per-catch average over the past two seasons.
Since we’re with the Packers this year in the headline market it would be a shame to miss out on the 6/1 about Aaron Rodgers being the 2014 MVP…
The pass first Lions will create lots of opportunities for Johnson again in 2014 and this elite wide receiver won’t let the side down. He never does and at odds of around 7/2 he’s worth a small bet.
Rodgers has a lot of respect behind the scenes and whilst the world is drooling over Manning and Brady, Aaron Rodger’s efforts won’t be overlooked by the people that count. He’s on a rebound from injury, and that story has won the MVP a few times before.
NFL – MOST RECEIVING YARDS
NFL – MVP
Tip: Calvin Johnson Stake: Half £ Bookies: @ Paddy Power
Tip: Stake: Bookies:
Aaron Rodgers to be MVP Half £ 6/1 @ Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook 11/2 @ Stan James
NFL // 2014/15 SEASON PREVIEW
The new NFL season kicks off early on Friday morning (5th Sept) with the Green Bay Packers against the reigning Super Bowl champions Seattle Seahawks. Make sure you get your bets on before kick off to ensure you get the best prices.
guide highlights the matches where I believe the bookies have got it WRONG.
CASH-IN ON THE NFL EVERY WEEK…
Best wishes,
As a Pro Betting Network member you’ll be getting a weekly Match List every Thursday, comparing my own Match Handicaps with the bookies’. This at-a-glance
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Then on a Friday I’ll be sending you the outstanding tips for the weekend’s games.
BET SUMMARIES NFL, SUPER BOWL XLIX - OUTRIGHT WINNER
NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS
Tip: Green Bay Packers to win Super Bowl XLIX Stake: £ Bookies: 12/1 @ William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, Bet Victor & Bet Fred
Tip: Dallas Cowboys - Under 7.5 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 10/11 @ Boylesports 5/6 @ William Hill & Skybet
NFL – NFC NORTH DIVISIONAL WINNER
NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS
Tip: Green Bay Packers to Win Stake: £ Bookies: 8/11 @ Ladbrokes, Coral & Bet Fred
Tip: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over 7 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 19/20 @ Stan James 10/11 @ 32Red 8/11 @ Totesport, William Hill & Bet Fred
NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS
NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS
Tip: New England Patriots - Over 10.5 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 8/11 @ Sporting Bet 4/6 @ Skybet & Coral
Tip: Cleveland Browns - Under 6.5 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 13/10 @ William Hill 6/5 @ Ladbrokes & Skybet
NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS
NFL – REGULAR SEASON WINS
Tip: Indianapolis Colts - Over 9.5 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 23/20 @ Coral, 11/10 @ Bet Victor Evens @ Ladbrokes & Bet Fred
Tip: Jacksonville Jaguars - Over 5 Wins Stake: £ Bookies: 5/6 @ Paddy Power
NFL – TO REACH THE PLAYOFFS
NFL - NAME THE FINALISTS
Tip: San Diego Chargers to reach the Playoffs Stake: £ Bookies: 21/10 @ Bet Victor 2/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power
Tip 1: Tip 2: Stake: Bookies:
NFL – MOST RECEIVING YARDS
NFL – MVP
Tip: Calvin Johnson Stake: Half £ Bookies: 7/2 @ Paddy Power
Tip: Stake: Bookies:
Green Bay Packers/ Denver Broncos Green Bay Packers/ Denver Broncos Quarter of a £ on each Green Bay/ Denver @ 28/1 Ladbrokes Green Bay / New England @ 40/1 Ladbrokes
Aaron Rodgers to be MVP Half £ 6/1 @ Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook 11/2 @ Stan James
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