HUG Magazine 2016 EN - Issue №1 by PAIGEO - Pallas Athene Innovation and Geopolitical Foundation

H U NGAR IAN G EOPOLITICS

"Maps are not only symbols of who we are and what world we live in but also instruments of power. We map a route to our chosen destination. Or create a road map to reach our goals. If you start a new business you prepare a business map. Companies make technological world maps to outline their investment plans. Countries, nations and banks createÂ strategies to achieve their goals. A map is a plan or process with which you can reach your target."

HUG

Noah Raford 2016

GEORGE FRIEDMAN Understanding What War Means in Europe RICHARD FLORIDA Creativity is the Basis of the Future Ă GNES BERNEK The Greater West and the Eurasian Supercontinent NORBERT CSIZMADIA The PAGEO Story SIMON ANHOLT The Big Country Brand Swindle NOAH RAFORD Future without Maps

FOREWORD

Dear Reader, it gives me great pleasure to welcome you to the columns of HUG, our new magazine dedicated to the geopolitics and geostrategy of Hungary. This is not just a big milestone for us, it is also the first stage of a geomoment series. We believe that nothing happens without a good reason. The events around us are driven by true interests and objectives. Thus, by studying and interpreting the 21st century map, we move one step closer to responding to such geopolitical processes.

HUG relies on value-based thoughts and thinking and intends to discover the synergies of the great geographic zones, to present the correlations connected by thousands of invisible ties along the different regions, and to come up with a general overview.

In the Hungarian Geopolitics (HUG) magazine, the Pallas Athene Geopolitical Foundation (PAGEO) intends to open a value-creating discussion that focuses on the geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic networks of our times. Our authors are international experts, world famous professors and representatives of new research generations who faced the challenge of researching and interpreting for us pieces of knowledge that are scattered across the world and yet belong together.

The global map was restructured at the beginning of the 21st century as continents emerged anew and a new world order and new global trends began to take shape. For us, it is important to illustrate that Hungary has a very important role and place in this new world order and on this new map. That is not only because there are Hungarian connection points in almost all topics (since wherever one goes, one comes across legendary Hungarian explorers and 21st-century Hungarian inventors), but also because, just like any positive and initiating history, ours also includes an opportunity for further thinking, development and growth.

The first issue of HUG focuses on the new geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic trends of the 21st century, seeks solutions for mapping our multipolar world order and pays attention to the dissemination of geopolitical thinking. We intend to embark on a journey from creative and innovative towns, through the geopolitical challenges of China, the US and Russia, to soft diplomatic tools and effects that drive cultural and social changes.

With the help of articles, studies, presentations and thoughts contained in HUG, we provide keys to understanding the 21st-century map to enable you to come up with real responses to global challenges by applying this geopolitical approach. We invite you to join us on this exciting journey.

Yours faithfully,

Norbert Csizmadia Pallas Athene Geopolitical Foundation Chairman of the Board of Trustees, HUG Editor-in-Chief

NORBERT CSIZMADIA Map of Understanding the 21 st Century

New Geostrategy Generations

5 Challenges of the 21 st Century

Budapest HUB: Meeting point of world famous researchers

NOAH RAFORD Strategic Planning

The Age of Geo-economics

ÁGNES BERNEK 21 st Century Geopolitical Strategies

FATHER OF STR ATFOR

L AB

GEOMOMENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

From the Cathedral to the Geopolitical Negotiating Table

Friedman Trilogy

GEORGE FRIEDMAN Understanding What War Means in Europe

Stratfor’s Prognosis: 2015-2025

106

Geopolitical Futures: The World in 2016

109

ZOLTÁN BARACSKAI: New Alexandrites

122

CR E ATIVE CITI E S

130

RICHARD FLORIDA Creativity Is the Basis of the Future Society with Creativity

7 Indicators of an Advanced City

139

25 Highly Livable Cities

147

A Capital of cyclists, green roofs and Innovations

157

TINA SAABY Copenhagen – A City for People

164

BUD: A Vision of Budapest

170

Why Do We Consider Budapest a Good Place?

SOF T POWE RS

116

176

A Selection of Books on Geopolitics Published in 2015

181

Film Recommendation

185 188 190

ÁGI SZALÓKI Music of Desire – Karády Tribute Concert in Japan Hungarian Charm, Depicted by Hungarians TOP 10: Hungarians at the Global Forefront

GEOMOMENTS

PAGEO STORY: MAP OF UNDERSTANDING OF THE 21ST CENTURY Author: Norbert Csizmadia

How will the global economic powers transform in the 21 st century? What does Hungary need to be successful in these new times? Why is the geopolitical approach, an “internal compass” important for global leaders, entrepreneurs and diplomats? What can we do to make Hungary an even better place? PAGEO, i.e., Pallas Athene Foundation, seeks answers to these questions.

THE PALLADION HERITAGE allas Athene is not only the goddess of knowledge in Greek mythology, she is also the protector of cities, and therefore she was the first urbanist. Cities that had a Pallas shrine, i.e., a Palladion, were considered impregnable. Pallas Athene was a bellicose and enlightened woman, as well as the patron of strategic, i.e., geostrategic, thinking. Although she is a mythological figure, she perfectly represents what we envisage for the 21st century. The spirit of a foundation should be fully in line with the spirit of who or what it is named after. Athene supported heroes in Greek mythology, and therefore we also follow the same spirit, but use 21st century methods to support the talents who are capable of creating long-lasting results with a geopolitical approach. WHY THE GEOPOLITICAL FOUNDATION? The world and individual countries can be investigated with various maps, which no longer include only topographic and political maps, but also others that help us understand economic, technological and cultural correlations. With the political and

economic transformation of the 21st century, maps and map reading have been re-evaluated. New maps, new regions, new operators, new cooperation, new scientific disciplines, new memes and ideas, new expressions, new related synergies and connection points are created and evolve. A geopolitical foundation has to interpret these. We believe that the 21st century will provide new opportunities for Hungary. Together we can form a value-creating community that can grasp this special moment. The most important question is how we can use Hungary’s specificities to build a positive geostrategy. How can we turn water, health, knowledge, creativity and high-tech industry development into our strengths? These are the areas where numerous individual, community and international successes have been achieved over the last few years. How do we cope with the storms of geopolitics? How will the Hungarian economy be resistant to geo-economic attacks and crises? The PAGEO response is in the geopolitical approach and knowledge building. Those countries that can produce creative and individual ideas and can create intellectual capital will be successful. These are countries that respond to a crisis quickly, which can find solutions to technological

challenges and to new employment forms and develop a stable and competitive economy. They are countries that can successfully manoeuvre among great powers and may become geostrategic hubs with all the roles of such a hub. These countries need leaders, scientists and entrepreneurs who recognise the increased value of “geo” in the 21 st century. They need to have some sort of an “internal compass,” a geopolitical approach. At PAGEO, we are looking for ambitious talents who are hungry for success and would like to do something to turn Hungary into a good place that is able to offer more to the world.

and geopolitical approach. This is also in the interest of all people. Competitiveness and growth will be the major challenge for our survival. We receive plenty of feedback from Hungarian researchers stating that their studies have never been published due to bureaucratic and financial barriers. PAGEO removed those hindrances for them. New inventions and ideas come out of the drawers every day. All we need to do is make way for them and occasionally help the industry. Outstanding and talented experts and students work in the departments of Hungarian and foreign universities. We also have good connections with major international thinktanks. The foundation also intends to cooperate with

PEOPLE NEED AN INTERNAL COMPASS

Hungarian creative workshops and with talented young researchers. We also would like to involve the knowledge and local understanding of Hungarians in foreign countries and Hungarians living, working or studying abroad. Last September our foundation, together with two other foundations and the University of Pécs, launched a geopolitical doctoral school. We published 27 books on geopolitics, and our own independent research institute also began its activities. This means that there are and will be talents who have an “internal compass”. In the next phase, we

AWe must realise that there is no other way. Everybody must understand that the world has not grown any closer to us, but we are able to move faster and more extensively within it. This means that those who are active, who develop and who find their ways in foreign cultures and in unknown places will be successful. Those who are capable of changing and are not frightened by a crisis, but can gain power from it. In other words, we are speaking of countries that have an internal compass and a long-term, responsible

intend to connect them with foreign colleagues in order to encourage and inspire others. We have organised conferences where Hungarian scientists could meet not only meet each other, but also foreign colleagues and the world stars of their professions. NIALL FERGUSON SENT US A HOLOGRAM INSTEAD OF ATTENDING

Presentations were delivered by John Gerzema, Philip Zimbardo, Sugatra Mitra, Noah Raford, Leonard Brody, Simon Anholt, Sandy Speicher, Mihály Csíkszentmihályi, Albert-László Barabási and many others. We managed to bring 20 trend-setting lecturers to Budapest in just one year. Their thoughts and advice were followed by 20 thousand people live and thousands on-line. FROM MUSIC TO GEOPOLITICS In the 21st century, geopolitics is not only about weapons and oil. Our world is much more complex. We must let the “hidden” diplomats of the country,

his wife were unable to leave their home. Then, the idea of the hologram came. As far as I know, it had not happened in Hungary before, and as such that presentation was a historic event. Not only Niall Ferguson visited us, but Richard Florida also arrived in Budapest with PAGEO’s support. We are also proud that George Friedman, the Executive Director of Stratfor News Agency, also visited his home country. Three of his books were published in Hungarian for the first time (with PAGEO support).

i. e., artists, athletes, scientists and entrepreneurs, act. We must forget about narrow categories and should look at the impacts generated by a particular activity. These “soft resources” and cultural diplomatic tools may also have significant impacts on economic and political relations. The World Music Expo, known as WOMEX, was held in Budapest last year, also with our support. The event and the city both received plenty of positive feedback from the visiting artists and journalists.

photos: András Hajnal

The story is slightly more complicated, though. The history professor accepted our invitation to the Budapest Brain Bar straight away, without knowing that he and his family would receive a death threat. Unfortunately, due to security measures, he and

PAGEO STORY: MAP OF UNDERSTANDING OF THE 21 ST CENTURY

However, the height of our success was when Joe Boyd (Bob Dylan’s sound engineer, who also discovered Pink Floyd) gave a five-star review to The Story of Hungarian Folk in Songlines magazine. One of the most reputable music magazines in the world recognised the book by Béla Jávorszky, the Englishlanguage publication of which in was supported by PAGEO. Such recognition is not only aimed at Hungarian folk music and Jávorszky, but also helps build a connection with the external world through our own culture. VALUE SAVING, VALUE PRESERVATION AND VALUE CREATION A number of buildings containing real treasures are situated in the Buda Castle, yet they are not maintained by anyone. One of historic importance is located at 72 Úri Street, because 40-metre-deep vaults were created in its cellar before World War II to store Hungarian gold reserves. The building will be reconstructed to become a new attraction of the Castle again. Geopolitical conferences, lectures and seminars will be held in this training and community centre.

Our aim is to create the new gold reserve of our country in this building, based on knowledge and creativity. HUNGARY’S FUTURE IS IN THE HANDS OF ITS TALENTS Apart from support and applications, we shall concentrate on organising our own professional programmes this year. We also intend to present our results in round-table discussions and at discussion evenings. Our plans also include an increase in the number of our partner universities and in the number of people we reach. It is PAGEO’s task to give an initial push and to form a protective net for anyone who needs very little in order to get to an international conference, to write a study or to publish a book. All we expect in exchange is that the people we support should be proud of their work, should contribute to Hungarian knowledge capital. Thereby, Hungary’s “internal compass” should also be able to orient itself towards a safe and happy future.

PAGEO RESEARCH INSTITUTE Pallas Athene Geopolitical Research Institute was established in spring 2015 in order to lay the research basis for the scientific discipline of geopolitics in Hungary. At present, we have ten young researchers covering various areas of the world: Africa, China and Southeast Asia, Latin America, as well as Russia and the post-Soviet region. Since our foundation, the research institute has published almost 200 articles, analyses and book reviews, published on our website and in different print forms. The rest of our work is aimed at supporting the professional activities of Pallas Athene Geopolitical Foundation with analyses and background documents. At present, we are working on the preparations for four technical conferences and round-table discussions to be held in 2016. Later, our plans include the publication of our own books and studies. Our long-term objective is to become one of the best geopolitical research institutes in Central and Eastern Europe.

SCHOLARSHIPS, PUBLICATIONS AND EVENTS The mission of Pallas Athene Geopolitical Foundation (PAGEO) is to promote public thinking, financial awareness, global information, economic and geopolitical professional public life, as well as expert development in Hungary. The Foundation’s most popular programme is the publication and research scheme, within the framework of which a number of Hungarian and foreign books and studies are made available to the Hungarian read-

ing public, including three books by George Friedman, the world famous geopolitical expert of Hungarian origin. In addition to traditional geopolitical research, other research projects in urbanism and cyberspace were also conducted with PAGEO support. With the mobility programme, the results of Hungarian experts were communicated to the world. During its one year of existence, the Foundation supported 22 professional and scientific events such as the 5th EUGEO Congress, the CITYGLOBE 2015 international conference, Borderless Europe, Pécs Debate Academy’s International Debate and Conference, the Day of Explorers, Budapest Brain Bar, and TEDxDanubia 2015, where the audience could learn about the ideas of world famous international speakers. The Foundation also supported connections between Hungarian and foreign geopolitical and economic public life, as well as cultural diplomacy events, which included the WOMEX world music expo, organised in Budapest.

PhD PROGRAMME Together with two other Pallas Athene foundations and the University of Pécs, PAGEO launched a PhD programme, under which 62 students were granted scholarships. Their training is supported by tutors and team leaders, as well as 77 invited lecturers and world famous experts. Apart from its own PhD programme, the Foundation is assisting 6 further PhD students in obtaining their doctorate.

Corvinus University 12

NEW GEOSTRATEGY GENERATIONS The Institute of Economic Geography, Geo-economics and Sustainable Development was established at the Faculty of Social Sciences of Budapest Corvinus University on September 1, 2015. The main mission of the Institute is to introduce current issues of global and regional spatial transformation into the Hungarian economic higher education. The University of Pécs revised its geopolitical, geo-economic and political geography doctorate programme with the support of Pallas Athene foundations.

BUDAPEST CORVINUS UNIVERSITY: SPATIALITY AT FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES The University and Central Bank of Hungary entered into a strategic agreement in July 2015 with the objective of jointly developing economic education and research in Hungary. Cooperation focuses on several areas, including student scholarships, publications and the establishment of a new department at the Faculty of Economics. The objectives also include the stimulation of geostrategic and geo-economic education and research. At the Faculty of Social Sciences, global economical and geopolitical focus is also becoming stronger – not only with the new institute, but also with the transfer of the Institute of World Economy into that unit as well. Together with the Institute of International Studies, already present at the faculty, this faculty can perhaps become the country’s most important university faculty dedicated to global issues on the basis of economics, social sciences and geographic studies. As we learned from Professor István Tózsa, who is in charge of the Institute, in Hungarian higher education, geography is taught and geographic experts are trained only at faculties of natural sciences, which can only partially be supplemented by the fact that a number of faculties of economics and economic studies are engaged in regional economics

in the country. Advanced education in geography is especially important in an age when we witness the spatial economic and power restructuring of the world and where regions, countries and cities compete with each other more and more intensely in our globalising world. The global “bestseller” philosophers studying economic and social issues of the world also call attention to the role of spatiality, more specifically municipalities. For example, Richard Florida considers the role of cities substantial in the emerging of a new creative class, the key to competitiveness; while Edward L. Glaeser, Professor of Economics at Harvard University, wrote a major work on the (economic) triumph of cities recently. At the same time, we must also note that Robert D. Kaplan, a geopolitical “guru,” makes recognition of the determining role of spatiality in global processes the centre of attention in his book issued under the title The Revenge of Geography. The Institute of Economic Geography, Geo-economy and Sustainable Development predominantly stemmed from the former Institute of Environmental Studies, primarily with the supplementation of the

MAIN TOPICS INCLUDED IN THE TRAINING:

NEW GEOSTRATEGY GENERATIONS

Department of Economic Geography, which already had a great history. Although education in geography has been reduced at the University of Economics over the past fifteen years, its major presence is not without precedent. The Faculty of Economics of the Royal Hungarian University, established by Pál Teleki, an internationally recognised geographer at the time and two-time Prime Minister, may be considered a long-time predecessor of Corvinus. The Department of Economic Geography of the University of Economics was an important source of information for national economy planning experts under decades of Communism, which then transformed

is to begin its educational and research work within three organisational units: the Centre of Economic Geography, the Centre of Geostrategy and the Centre of Sustainable Development.

significantly in the 1990s and shrunk significantly. The objective of the Institute of Economic Geography, Geo-economy and Sustainable Development

training programme and the introduction of a joint training programme with a foreign partner institution involved in the topic.

In the first step, the Regional and Environmental Economics master’s programme was revised, as a result of which regional economics (specialising in the geography of the transforming global world), the development of municipalities and geostrategy have become an educational programme, where practical economic developments, strategic planning and regional development experts play an important role. Plans include the development of an international

UNIVERSITY OF PÉCS: THE LARGEST DOCTORATE PROGRAMME IN THE REGION Training began in September 2015 with 62 students receiving scholarships at the Doctoral School of Geographic Sciences of the University of Pécs with support from PAGEO, PADA and PADS foundations. The main purpose of the Doctoral Programme is to come up with responses to the international geopolitical challenges of the 21st century with a multidisciplinary approach and from the point of view of Central and Eastern Europe. The doctoral programme, launched under the full title of “Geopolitics, Geo-economics and Political Geography from the Perspectives of Central Europe,” is led by Dr. István Szilágyi. Geopolitics as an interdisciplinary field is primarily the overlap between economics, geography and political sciences; yet, it may also be considered an analytical system which integrates issues occurring in a specific geographic space in a complex manner, thereby generating solutions in the form of a complex responses. This makes geopolitics an important dimension of economic policy, making its encouragement and its professional and scientific exploration important in terms of economic strategy. The students of the doctoral programme pursue their studies and research activities with the help of a tutorial system and under the guidance of the most experienced Hungarian and foreign experts. The best known and most internationally recognised

researchers and strategic philosophers in these topics, professors of leading universities and executive officers of the main think-tank institutes deliver presentations and lead courses as invited lecturers. The doctoral students conduct studies in English and in Hungarian, attend courses at major foreign universities (Stanford, King’s College London, University of Oxford, Harvard University, University College of London) and at leading geopolitical and geostrategic institutions (Geneva Institute of Geopolitical Studies). In addition to having access to the latest international literature and databases, they are able to monitor the latest research topics and trends, while continuously taking part in open scientific workshops. The geopolitical and geo-economic training programme was launched within the doctoral school of the university in the autumn. According to the plans, a separate doctoral school will be established within this scientific field from 2017. With that initiative, a unique doctoral school will be established in Central Europe. The preparatory work for the accreditation procedure will start this autumn. Once accreditation has been granted, the doctoral school can pursue its activities from the autumn of 2017, following the transfer of PhD students who begin their studies this year and next year.

5 CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY Author: László Körtvélyesi

Amundsen reached the South Pole more than a hundred years ago, and Armstrong set foot on the surface of the moon 47 years ago. We have discovered everything, our world is constantly scanned by hundreds of satellites, and the world atlas fits in our hand with the help of a smart phone. Planes and free trade washed away borders, while the indisputable hegemony of the US introduced one-way politics. The 20th century killed geography. That is why, at the beginning of the 21 st century, we face the challenge of producing new useful maps and compasses to understand a transforming world.

The 20th century was dedicated to the United States of America. In that period, the US killed off geopolitics in five ways. It conquered the seas and won the competition for space, with which it extended its borders across the entire “blue planet”. American investments and the USD became the dominant factors on the global market. This was followed by the influx of a scientific and creative workforce, while it exported culture, working culture and globalisation itself. With its military, politicaleconomic and “brain drain” advantages, the United States of America conquered the world. BILL GEORGE: “NEVER WASTE A GOOD CRISIS” However, the 21st century kicked off with 5 great crises, reshaping the geopolitical global world that evolved in the last century. We are proceeding on unknown terrain, where we have to go back to the set of tools of geography and geopolitics day to day. THE FIRST CRISIS saw the USA again have to fight with competitors after one generation. Currently China, India, Russia, the Middle East and Brazil are entering the dusty geopolitical ring with serious ambitions. The unipolar world is becoming a multi-polar world again, and a new world order is being born in the 21st century.

GEOPOLITICS, GEO-ECONOMICS AND GEOSTRATEGY AGeopolitics is a scientific discipline that analyses correlations between geographic features, specificities and opportunities, as well as political and social processes. Originally, it was part of political geography. Economic issues came to the forefront within geopolitics by the end of the 20th century, and this process gave birth to the science of geo-economics. Geostrategy is an external political programme of a state or another organisation that also takes into account geographic features.

Global strategies are being replaced by “regional” cooperation. (This also includes the USA-EU TTIP free trade agreement.) Amidst the numerous systems of allies of the multipolar world, smaller countries often may balance the scales. They include the group of Latin American

countries around Brazil, the Eurasian Union surrounding Russia, as well as the ally system and conflicts among China and the Asian Tigers. THE SECOND CRISIS emerged when the housing bubble burst in America in 2008 and was followed by an economic recession. This, in the end, broke Europe into at least three parts; or, as others say, it revealed its previously hidden boundaries. By now, the US has practically overcome the crisis, while the old Continent is still struggling with the shades of recession and deflation. At the same time, there is a constant fight for energy and, simultaneously, for energy independence, as oil prices began to fall rapidly. While Germany and Italy are turning to renewable power in the decade of cheap oil, Russia and the Middle East are unable to sort out their economies. THE THIRD CRISIS is a two-way migration process, one branch of which reflects the knowledge and brain drain impact of advanced countries. The other is the migration process that began at the same time as the Syrian war. The gate of development is open to everyone in our global world, which is based on new technologies. The flow of knowledge between advanced economies and rapidly developing ones is a dual process: it builds connections (new alliances, catalysts), yet the origin country gradually becomes the provider and not the producer of knowledge (as was the case in other industries, too). THE FOURTH CRISIS has a technological and social character. The 21st century will be the age of artificial intelligence, robots, data mining and automation. In the near future, all industries will be able to fully rely on machine work and software that lacks unique human creativity. The development of the Uber taxi service is only the first step in this unstoppable process. Inventories are no longer prepared by people in Amazon warehouses, either. Soon applications will be able to replace all administrative bookkeeping and even financial consulting tasks. We must monitor these social processes and come up with flexible solutions that simultaneously focus on people but do not repress development. THE FIFTH CRISIS is the crisis of leadership qualities. The majority of the above problems clearly developed due to lack of leadership qualities: entailing avoiding responsibility, inflexibility, superfluous management and short-term solutions.

THE GEOPOLITICAL TURN Over the last years, the geopolitical situation has come into the focus in science, as well as in diplomacy. Only last year, indicative conferences were held in the region, including GlobSec in Bratislava, Snow Metting in Vilnius, and Riga Conference or Forum 2000 in Prague. At the same time, a separate Brzezinski Geopolitical Institute was established within the CSIS research centre in America. More and more research centres with international relations and engaged in geopolitics have appeared on the list of the best think-tanks in the world, kept by the University of Pennsylvania. The Central and Eastern European region is led by a Polish institute. Geopolitical thinking has also become more active in Hungary, as the number of institutes and courses dedicated to geostrategy is increasing. After a hundred years, Corvinus reintroduced an institute of economic geography and geo-economics. The geopolitical doctoral programme of the University of PĂŠcs has become the best in the region in this field.

These 5 crises present to us a geopolitical opportunity for a new start. A country that finds a solution to the situation of innovative, mainly on-line companies can also resolve the issues of brain drain. Any society that can retain knowledge capital can build a crisistolerant economy, which can lead to a valuable alliance in the country itself, or one with a regional pole of powers. However, that requires leaders who can navigate the often misty and marshy world of geopolitics, who are brave enough to discover the latest world and pass on their experience and knowledge maps to new generations.

BUDAPEST HUB: MEETING POINT OF WORLD FAMOUS RESEARCHERS THE DAY OF EXPLORERS: FESTIVAL OF RESEARCH EXPEDITIONS WHERE STRENGTH, ENDURANCE AND SCIENCE COME TOGETHER Organized by FÖLDGÖMB (GLOBE) magazine and the Hungarian Geographical Society and supported by PAGEO, the Day of Explorers opened its gates in Millenaris Park for the third time on May 9, 2015. Volcanoes were the focus, partly because of the history-shaping eruption of Tambora 200 years ago. At the Festival of Research Expeditions, archaeologists, paleontologists, biologists, anthropologists, climate researchers, volcanologists, geographers and researchers from a number of other scientific disciplines presented their personal experiences and the world of field research. The visitors obtained a glimpse into their work and methods through presentations, demonstrations and mini-exhibitions of the event, where they could also learn more about explorer kits. The festival is the largest and most spectacular event in Hungary devoted to geography and its associated sciences. The purpose of this special programme is to call attention to the importance of research expeditions and to the scientific roots of these expeditions. It also intends to encourage the future generation and get them interested in scientific research by presenting its beauty and exciting nature. These days, quality general educational activities have been pushed into the background rather

FELFEDEZÔK

NAPJA

unfairly. The general public can hardly see any of the achievements of Hungarian researchers, even though the social and economic benefits of their efforts are obvious. This is what we intended to change with our event, where Strength, Endurance and Science met. Visitors were able to meet a number of authors of GLOBE during the presentations and at the exhibition site, while the family event featured continuous presentations of research activities and personal experiences. ATTRACTIVE AND DANGEROUS VOLCANOES, VOLCANO ERUPTIONS What is the correlation between the Tambora eruption and the invention of Velociped or Frankenstein? The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull on Iceland, in the spring of 2010, paralysed Europe’s air traffic for a week and immediately brought volcanic eruption and its potential impacts into the focus of attention. Another volcanic eruption with a global impact had to be recalled in 2015. Following several thousand years of calm, the Indonesian Tambora volcano erupted on April 5, 1815. The eruption claimed thousands of victims in the vicinity of the volcano, but the number of deaths caused by the remote effects of the eruption cannot be estimated. The number definitely reached hundreds of thousands or even one million. Famine emerged in the Northern Hemisphere,

photo: Gรกbor Mรณzsi

epidemics developed, and desperate people attacked each other in many places in Europe and in recently colonised North America. This happened exactly 200 years ago, and it is important to think about the potential impacts of such a volcanic eruption in the present world. Are societies with advanced technology prepared for such a natural phenomenon with global impact? Is it widely known that such events may happen? After all, they have occurred on several occasions during our history. 10 PER CENT OF MANKIND LIVES IN THE VICINITY OF ACTIVE VOLCANOES!

number is more than 10% of the population of the world. In the months prior to the festival, 3 settlements disappeared from the surface of the earth as a result of a volcanic eruption. What would happen if the next victim were a city with a population of hundreds of thousands or one million? We have no experience like that and no precisely developed plan. How much do we know about these things at all? Volcanology experts use more and more instruments to study volcanoes and volcanic activity in more depth and to use their knowledge to forecast eruptions. The understanding of volcanoes is an increasingly urgent societal demand.

Currently, approximately 800 million people live within 100 kilometres of active volcanoes in 86 countries; i.e., they are exposed to a volcano. That

COULD A VOLCANO ERUPT IN THE CARPATHIAN BASIN? Is volcanic research important in the Carpathian Basin? Over the last 20 million years, a variety of volcanic activity took place in our region, and a dozen volcanoes erupted over the last one million years. Does the current, apparently calm situation mean that the history of activity is over, or could it continue? The latest research suggests that there might be a magma chamber containing some lava below the Csomád Hills of Hargita in Transylvania; that is, a new eruption might occur. Basaltic magma could erupt through the earth’s crust and reach the surface in a spectacular volcanic eruption in just a few days. Do we know enough about such events? During the past few years, Hungarian volcanology research has resulted in a number of remarkable scientific achievements proving that such experience is useful in general when analysing volcanoes. Perhaps few people know that in-depth research is also conducted in our region for the understanding of devastating events similar to super volcanic eruptions. A HUNGARIAN VOLCANOLOGIST AT HOME AND IN THE WORLD The Carpathian Basin is a volcanology laboratory, whose pages need to be opened in order to read between its lines. This idea was supported by the Hungarian volcanologists in the exhibition hall of the Millenaris Park on the Day of Explorers. Visitors were able to touch very interesting formations from the rock forming the mantle of the Earth to just a few-month-old lava rock. Do you know that there is a Volcano Park, and there are two other Geoparks in Hungary that focus primarily on the natural assets of volcanology? Visitors could catch a glimpse of these special wonders, and the results of foreign volcanology expeditions were also unveiled. A potentially active volcano was named after Sámuel Teleki by Höhnel, to mark Teleki’s East African expedition in 1888: it is the only volcano named after a Hungarian. At present, the geographers of the Globe-Atacama Climate Monitoring Expedition conduct research on Earth’s highest volcano, which is in Chile. The event also presented many other volcano research results in a manner understandable to everyone.

HUNGARIAN EXPLORER AWARD The Globe for Expedition Research Foundation granted the Hungarian Explorer Award in 2015. It was presented to István Sántha by the General Secretary of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Dr. Ádám Török, the patron of our event. The award was granted for his exploration activities, which achieved new professional results, created long-lasting value and attracted a great deal of international attention. A NEW TRIP AROUND EUROPE BY KAYAK After the spring storms had calmed down, Tamás Végvári took to the sea again in his kayak with the aim of paddling around Europe. The first 4,200-kilometre-long stretch of the journey from Budapest to Norway finished in Athens. After paddling along the River Danube, on the Black Sea and along the coast of the Marmara and Aegean Seas, the journey continued from the Greek capital city through the Corinth Canal towards the island of Corfu and the Albanian border. The paddler, campaigning in cooperation with WWF for the protection of wetland habitats, together with his storm-beaten kayak (just 50 cm wide) still had 20,000 kilometres of paddling to do before reaching the Arctic Circle. Tamás Végvári left to start the next phase of his journey from our event, after the gates of the Day of Explorers were closed. We talked to him about the difficulties and tasks that lay ahead of him on the Great Stage. FAMILY FESTIVAL: “BE THE HERO ON THE FRONT PAGE” GAME, HEPTATHLON, LIVE COVERAGE ON THE DAY OF GEOGRAPHY Apart from the presentations and demonstrations, the Day of Explorers is a day dedicated to geography; a true family festival, which cannot be held without games and plenty of prizes. Adventurous visitors could test themselves to see how they would perform in a real expedition. With a little luck, those who successfully completed the heptathlon could win a trip to the mountains of Poland or could take home one of the valuable prizes. Those who did not win anything could still taste the special organic coffee products prepared by the coffee-loving, tricycle-riding barista of Pedalocafe. A rich programme also awaited the children. The

BUDAPEST HUB: MEETING POINT OF WORLD FAMOUS RESEARCHERS

youngest were able to learn new information through playful challenges at the “Continents Close-up” stand of the Hungarian Geographical Society. Even the adults found interesting challenges at the stand of the MTA CSFK Institute of Geographic Sciences, and visitors were also able to meet a few residents of Tropicarium on this occasion, too. Anybody with the ambition of being on a cover page could do so on the Day of Explorers. By using Greenbox technology, anybody could be featured on the cover of GLOBE magazine in just a few minutes, and the image could be shared with friends. All one had to do was decide which explorer’s body to use. Those who were unable to visit the event could follow the events at

Millenaris Park live, with the help of Film Jungle TV, online at www.felfedezoknapja.info . Some of the presentation can also be watched later! The successful Explorers Day will be organised again on May 21, 2016, at Hall D of Millenaris Park under the title “Festival of Research Expeditions”. Visitors can get a taste of the life of scientific researchers and primarily field research, which will be covered at the event in all its aspects: climate research, paleontology research, ancient geography research, geological research, surface development research, ecology research, archaeology, ethnographic research and space research, with a focus on climate research. Admission is free for all age groups! Author: Zsolt Heiling

FROM MIGRATION TO GEOMORPHOLOGY EUROPE’S LEADING GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENTISTS IN BUDAPEST – EUGEO 2015 CONGRESS (AUGUST 30 - SEPTEMBER 2, 2015) The Hungarian capital city hosted the most prominent European event of geographic science between August 30 and September 2. The Congress was organised by the Hungarian Geographical Society, a member of EUGEO. The 5th Congress of EUGEO, an umbrella organisation of the geographical societies on the Continent, founded in 1997, was attended by 602 researchers from 45 countries to discuss problems that will also determine the future of Europe: demographic issues, climate change and urbanism. Zoltán Kovács, doctor of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA), Vice President of the Hungarian Geographical Society and Chairman of the organisation committee of the Congress, outlined the situation of geographic sciences and geographers: “The boundaries of traditional disciplines are fading, and the same also applies to the science of geography. Over the last few decades, the programmes financed by the European Union, involving a large number of Hungarian geographic scientists, played an important role in the process.”

HUNGARIAN RESEARCHERS IN INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS As Zoltán Kovács explained, natural geography researchers cooperate mostly with scientists engaged in ecology, geology, climatology, pedology and information technology both in Hungary and internationally, while researchers engaged in social geography maintain regular contact with representatives of sociology, demography, economics and political science. Among the research topics related to natural geography, the Hungarian research activities in quaternary geomorphology, landscape research, karst research and recently surface processes (e.g., soil erosion) represent strong traditions even by international comparison. Research results in social and ethnic geography, urban geography, migration and lagging regions (peripheries) attracted the greatest amount of international attention over the last few decades. GEOGRAPHIC SCIENCE IN EVERYDAY LIFE Geo-informatics is one of the most rapidly developing disciplines. The map-based illustration of results is a common language among the representatives of the science of geography.

Owing to the rapid development of the techniques used in data collection, storage, interpretation and display of geographic knowledge has expanded significantly. Also, the use of geographic information (e.g., GPS and Google Maps) has become widespread in everyday life. The development of geo-informatics is a continuous process, since new instruments and scientific methods to monitor geographic processes appear every day. As an example of the use of the latest methods of spatial analysis and spatial data infrastructures, Zoltán Kovács stated, “Researchers in social geography were able to analyse mobility processes with the help of cell data from mobile phones over the last few years. That included movements related to leisure activities at the weekend and the rhythm of the daily movements, such as the commuting of the suburban population.” He also added that the same information is also useful in other disciplines – e.g., in traffic planning. CURRENT ISSUES In relation to the scientific tools and approaches to geography, the professor highlighted natural geography as closer to natural sciences, and social geography as closer to social sciences. Hence, geographic science could provide a link between the two great branches of scientific disciplines to a certain extent. “The assessment and modelling of environmental risks, the analysis of the impacts of climate change and landscape degradation, monitoring of the transformation of the utilisation of areas, as well as research focusing on environmental protection

and rehabilitation have become rather fashionable trends within natural geography over the last few years,” - explained Zoltán Kovács. “The research of different types of mobility (migration), the assessment of social adaptability (resilience) to global environment, the identification of the sources of social conflicts, and the assessment of conflicts and risks stemming from the variable geopolitical environment are very popular among the representatives of social geography.” EUROPEAN UMBRELLA ORGANISATION All these topics were covered in sections and presentations held at the EUGEO Budapest Congress, organised by the umbrella organisation of European geographic societies. EUGEO was founded in 1997. Its objectives include the promotion of cooperation and exchange of ideas among geographers at the European level, as well as dissemination of geographic information among future generations. The organisation has arranged international congresses every two years since 2007, hosted by countries of different member organisations on each occasion. After Amsterdam (2007), Bratislava (2009), London (2011) and Rome (2013), Budapest hosted the 5th Congress of the organisation in 2015. In the meantime, the association has evolved into the most prominent European forum of geographic science. The Congress was organised by the Hungarian Geographic Society in cooperation with the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the ELTE Faculty of Natural Sciences. Author: Zsolt Heiling

BUDAPEST – THE CENTRE OF WORLD MUSIC In an event organised by Piranha Arts and its Hungarian partner, Hangvető, Budapest was the first in the region to host WOMEX, the most prominent international world music forum, attended by more than 2,500 delegates from 90 countries around the world. It was the 21st WOMEX, which was also proudly supported by PAGEO.

WHAT IS WOMEX? The most important representative international event of folk music and world music is Womex. It is a fair, a global music festival, a conference, a festival of music documentary films and an award-distributing celebration. It is an event celebrating the genre, presenting new talents and providing opportunities for business by networking with the most powerful people in the industry, booking concert and festival programmes and forming friendships. It is an ideal occasion to celebrate music, similar to the Cannes Film Festival for the film industry, although it is held elsewhere on each occasion. By hosting the event in Budapest, an old dream of the global and Hungarian folk music industry came true, thanks to the extensive efforts of staff members and their winning bid. Remarkably, Hungarian artists (Ökrös Band) had performed at the first WOMEX, and Muzsikás was granted the WOMEX award in 2008. In 2011 Hungarian artists had the opportunity to introduce themselves at the opening ceremony of WOMEX in Copenhagen. The remarkable success of that opening ceremony paved the road to hosting the event in Budapest. In 2012 Félix Lajkó, a violin artist, performed successfully at the music festival. In the recent past,

photo: Mark Somay

Rhythm and music are the world’s first universal language. No matter how different eastern or southern sounds or rhythms are, the international language of music is understood by very different cultures. Appreciation of WOMEX and the world of rhythm is also important to us, because, in previous centuries, diplomacy and country brands were primarily mediated by governments and diplomats. However, in the 21st century (owing to the development of technology), a direct relationship could be built between two remote nations and two cultures with the countries’ talented artists, scientists and entrepreneurs acting as the most important promoters of the process. We hope that the “soft resources” of countries – such as culture, media, liveability, language and music – will gain importance in the near future. The new tools of geopolitics provide new opportunities to small and periphery countries to avoid the closed and static world of traditional diplomacy and build new and direct relationships and cooperation

that not only develop diplomacy and culture but also the economy and scientific activities of the country.

BUDAPEST HUB: MEETING POINT OF WORLD FAMOUS RESEARCHERS

Hungarian experts were also invited to join the seven samurai – i.e., members of the jury that prepares the WOMEX programme for that particular year. As the first host in Central and Eastern Europe, one of the objectives of the organisers was to open the gate between Hungary and Eastern Europe and the world market. Never have so many Hungarian and East European bands performed at WOMEX, and, according to the feedback, almost all of them benefited from the opportunity in the form of invitations to concerts, records contract and press interest. Kosovo and Serbia (as well as Chile and Tunisia, as countries not belonging to the Eastern European region) manned national stands for the first time at WOMEX. This added to the importance

reach by a special boat launched from Müpa (Palace of Arts). Another important event was the Hungarian showcase, staged by the organisers in Fonó, one day prior to the official opening of WOMEX. This provided an opportunity for ten bands to introduce themselves to the international representatives of the industry, since they could not secure a spot in WOMEX’s limited official programme. The success of WOMEX lent great impetus to the international reputation of Hungarian folk and world music and will remain a source of inspiration for Hungarian musicians for a long time. One of the bands made the following entry on Facebook after the event: “It is great that we were able to take part in WOMEX: gratitude, pleasure and respect! First we

of the region and the role of Hungary within the region. Of the Hungarian bands, the artists performing at the opening gala (Gypsy Heartbeats, Romengo, Bea Palya, Szalonna and his Band), as well as Cimbalom Duet, Buda Folk Band and Ági Herczku’s band, all reported receiving plenty of interest, while foreign experts also expressed their appreciation on many occasions. For the first time in many years of the event’s history, all tickets were sold out for concert days, and the number of foreign experts visiting Hungary was approximately one hundred and fifty more than the foreign experts visiting the previous year’s event. The international world music expo closed with an award ceremony and the concert of this year’s awardwinning Cheikh Lô at the Müpa (Palace of Arts). The WOMEX Professional Excellence Award was given to Ramin Sadighi, founder of Hermes Records, while the Publishers’ Award went to Glitterbeat. The 21st event was attended by more than 2,550 delegates representing 1,500 organisations from 90 countries around the world – including 875 concert and festival organisers, 500 publishers and distribution companies, and more than 500 managers, producers and agency representatives. Nearly 700 exhibitors opened 270 stands, representing 54 countries. Also, 280 artists from 50 countries performed in more than 60 concerts on 7 stages during the event. Apart from technical discussions, the event also hosted diplomatic meetings and conference discussions, which can be the first step for several new international initiatives. WOMEX events, the conference programme and film festival were held in the Bálna (Whale), while the concert programme was organised at Müpa (Palace of Arts). At night, the DJ Summit and the World Music DJ’s Summit were held on A38, which participants could

were together, proud of our country, the Hungarians. It was good to listen jointly to the great deal of devotion and praise for the Hungarian bands playing at WOMEX, for our city, the organisation and the atmosphere. We Hungarians, the bands and organisers, were all proud and happily shared with each other our experience. We were one cohesive family, the cooperating members of this small country. This solidarity was a wonderful experience for us. We are grateful to the Hangvető for the organisation!!! Great meetings, deep discussions, joint singing with Czech, Greek and Haitian singers, an endless list and quantity of musical experiences at concerts on every corner, truly unbelievable!” According to Dániel Hamar, a member of the band Muzsikás, it was an unprecedented, positive imagebuilding event for the country. He also saw and witnessed how many people changed their opinions and impressions of the country in a great common catharsis. Budapest organised the best WOMEX so far, according to feedback received not only from Hungarian sources, but also from international press and from the industry. Only a short time has passed since WOMEX, but it already seems obvious that the event gave great impetus to Hungarian folk and world music artists, as indicated by a large number of invitations to concerts abroad and interviews. Not only Hungary, but Eastern Europe was also represented by more artists than ever before, which can help us achieve our goal of becoming a true regional music centre. We hope that we do not have to wait long for the next WOMEX in Budapest and that the Hungarian capital city can also host other important music events. A good reason to be hopeful is that the 2016 festival will be held in Santiago de Compostela, which is the capital city of Galicia in Spain, which has staged the event before. Author: Balázs Weyer

BRAIN BAR BUDAPEST 3 days, 80 lecturers, 8 exciting venues The Brain Bar Budapest festival was attended by internationally recognised experts and analysts from around the world to discuss, without taboos or conventions, the social impact of trends that will determine the near future.

THE IDEA Technology, which is changing at an unbelievable speed, is taking control of an increasing part of our lives in the current economic and social transformation process, also described as the third industrial revolution. The technological changes radically reshape every aspect of our lives from personal and family relations to city transport and the organisation of work. Numerous conferences and events are held in the region and at many points of the world, celebrating the latest achievements of technology, including the Pioneers Festival in Vienna and the Web Summit in Dublin. However, while there is intense discussion in the world about the next steps in the development of technology, how this process will reshape our lives the economic and social changes that it will imply - is hardly ever mentioned. The Brain Bar Budapest festival was organised by Design Terminál, We Love Budapest, Akvárium Klub and HG Media for the first time in the spring of 2015, with the support of PAGEO. The festival, which will be held annually in future, aims at becoming a forum where the most exciting economic, geopolitical and technological trends in Eastern Europe determining the near future will be discussed in terms of their impact on human life. The festival intends to become a forum, in which the audience may examine these effects and their potential normative consequences with the world’s leading philosophers, introducing a unique global approach. As a knowledge-sharing platform, Brain Bar Budapest intends to inspire its audience members to form their own opinions about the changes that shape our lives and to take an active role in those changes.

UNIQUE THOUGHTS IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL ENVIRONMENT Owing to its strong entrepreneurial culture and colourful demographic composition, Budapest shaped various future-focused trends at the turn of the century. The main organiser of the festival, Design Terminal, has a mission of reviving Budapest’s traditional role as a trendsetter. Brain Bar Budapest, as a knowledge-sharing platform, will help Budapest join other large cities on the world map where discussions are held about the future, including New York, San Francisco, London, Berlin and Shanghai.

“...another important motivating factor in the organisation of the event was to present Budapest as a vibrant and exciting city with a special attracting power.” Akvárium Klub provided a special venue for the main programme of the 2015 festival. The “underground” symbolism of the building with its unique atmosphere in the heart of the city rhymed well with the mood of the exciting discussions that delved deep into complicated issues. The unconventional interior and the unconventional equipment of the venues, unlike the equipment used for conferences, also helped to create a totally unique form. The organisers used creative solutions to remove the boundary between the stages and the audience. Apart from the furniture radiating diversity and informality, plants also appeared in the underground building, dominating all key points throughout the space. Beside the main venues of Design Terminál and Akvárium Klub, ten other smaller bars and clubs in the city centre (e.g., Spíler, Shanghai and Ötkert) hosted workshops and interactive discussions which were closely related to the main programme.

photo: Miklós Vargha

BUDAPEST HUB: MEETING POINT OF WORLD FAMOUS RESEARCHERS

FOUR QUESTIONS OF TECHNOLOGY The topics of the festival were finalised on the basis of a comparative analysis of almost fifty regional and global festivals dedicated to technology, the future and inspiration society. The final content was the result of joint brainstorming actions lasting six months. The festival programme focused on four large issues. In the “Tech versus Humanity” section the organisers raised issues such as the correlation between robotics and ethics.In terms of their topic, the workshops under the title “Lab” were closely related to the issues of the sections, yet they provided opportunities for members of the audience, immersed in the

In terms of their topic, the workshops under the title “Lab” were closely related to the issues of the sections, yet they provided opportunities for members of the audience, immersed in the inspiring contents of the large stages, to express their opinions and discuss their own solutions.

inspiring contents of the large stages, to express their opinions and discuss their own solutions. Where is the border between people, technology and religion? Are we turning into creators by establishing technological solutions that go beyond human capacity? The programmes under the title “Corporations versus Disruptors” focused on the impact of technology on corporations and the value of the human workforce. The “Planners versus People” section presented changes affecting life in cities. Should a city strive to become a developing economic centre or rather a more liveable place that serves the needs of its residents better? “The fourth topic, “Governments versus Innovators”, analysed the future of Europe, nation states and democracy. THE POWER OF DISCUSSION Communication and uncompromising knowledge, as well as exchange of opinion, are required to resolve the issues that determine the future of our common global society in the 21st century. Brain Bar Budapest intends to host that constructive discussion. The creative tension coded into its format makes Brain Bar Budapest unique. Apart from the vivid discussions that form the backbone of the programme, this

approach is also reflected in how the depth of the scientific and professional discussion varies with the pulse of progressive music. Although the festival programme contains traditional presentations, it builds on the tension between the key ideas of the invited local and international thinkers. During round-table discussions and any other dialogue, the objective is to both present the conflicts between the participants and the origin thereof and to find synthesis in order to formulate joint solutions that suit both their professional knowledge and visions and any existing conflicts. This idea stems from the recognition of the complexity of the current issues of humanity, which cannot be avoided when talking about the future, and their dependence on the particular social and scientific context. COMMUNITY AND AUDIENCE

Thus, discussion, which is the most important component of the unconventional genre of Brain Bar Budapest, occurs onstage and in the breaks between the various disciplines, as well as between the emerging younger generations and the leading figures who ascribe to current views. Naturally, in terms of the ambitious and global objectives of the events, the geographic-cultural diversity of the audience is equally important. Both the lecturers and the audience are of diverse compositions. Representatives of three continents and an infinite number of languages and sub-cultures form the audience of Brain Bar Budapest and the community that brings the festival to life. The international community assembled for the festival is made up of invited experts, attending students and young entrepreneurs, as well as viewers following and commenting upon the events on-line from all corners of the world. That diversity makes it possible for the festival to generate cooperation between representatives of

photo: Miklรณs Vargha

The audience of Brain Bar Budapest reflects a great deal of diversity, just as the topics of the festival did. Target groups with versatile scientific and professional interests think together at the event along the main four issues covered by its topics. For the organisers students, who will determine the future, have

a role equally important to that of decision-makers and leading experts who understand the status quo best and are capable of influencing it.

BUDAPEST HUB: MEETING POINT OF WORLD FAMOUS RESEARCHERS

various disciplines coming from different cultures and scientific fields. The organisers intend to exploit the diversity, openness to discussion and international character of the created platform and community, in order to encourage people who did not have any common platforms in Hungary before to think together. This will enable Brain Bar Budapest to place Hungary’s creative and technological enterprises and experts on the map of Europe’s top performers. Also, participants can understand and jointly expand the limits of technology and society. They can ask the biggest questions of our times and take an active part in building the future. BUDAPEST: INSPIRATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Budapest is an amazing and dynamic city. It is home to an infinite number of talented, creative, innovative thinkers, dreamers and active experts. Hence, it is an ideal venue for an event that builds on inspiration. The intense intellectual medium and cultural vibrance of Budapest makes our capital city a true melting pot for Central European creative energies. The city contains everything that makes this region special and competitive. In addition, the rich history and exciting future of Budapest, the contradictions and correlations between its traditions and specialities, can inspire dialogue and discussion on the most important and perhaps most divisive issues of the future. The participants of the festival can come across a number of sources of inspiration in the dense network of the tourism and entertainment industry in the city centre. There is a large number of creative communities that enrich the festival’s programme with their own intellectual resources, while they also have the opportunity to present their own ideas and objectives to a larger international public. As Budapest has a number of excellent higher education institutions, it has no shortage of talented and active young people who are indispensable actors and driving forces of dialogues about the future according to the basic vision of Brain Bar Budapest. The innovative enterprises of Budapest are also important local

sources of community and the intellectual values of the festival. With their participation, the international tech and startup scene opens up to the community of Brain Bar Budapest, and their global perspective can help turn the event into an international phenomenon in every aspect. Consequently, Budapest is an ideal venue for a global event that is focused on the future, but based on diversity in terms of culture, infrastructure and the talents and sub-cultures living within it. It is a huge source of inspiration that the festival can build on. Given its global nature, the festival can then convey the creative energy accumulated in Budapest toward the international public. AN UNMISSABLE EVENT OF THE EUROPEAN SUMMER Brain Bar Budapest is simultaneously an exciting series of events with a joyful combination of traditional genres and an open community that constantly wishes to develop. It intends to establish an approach to thinking and an active attitude capable of responding to important international trends in this region, showing that Central and Eastern Europe is part of the leading discussion on technology and society, just as much as other regions. The success of the first year shows that there is demand for such a large global knowledge-sharing platform both in Budapest and in the region. Apart from the power of discussion and confrontation of views, the diversity, activity and constructive attitude of the audience constitute the most unique resources of this unconventional event. One of the objectives of the organisers is to expand the format in terms of content and also, in particular cases, geographically. In the future, they intend gradually to enrich and expand Brain Bar Budapest as an intellectual workshop and community – thereby turning the festival into an unavoidable, unforgettable and not-to-be-missed event of the Budapest and the European summer. Author: Gergely Böszörményi-Nagy

photos: Gรกbor Mรณzsi

BUDAPEST HUB: MEETING POINT OF WORLD FAMOUS RESEARCHERS

BALANCE ON THE RAZOR’S EDGE TEDxDanubia, the Hungarian version of TED, one of the most innovative conferences in the world, was organised in Budapest for the fifth time in May last year. “IDEAS WORTH SPREADING” – BRIEFLY ABOUT TED TED - Technology, Entertainment, Design. This Holy Trinity provided a path to the future for the founders of the TEDMED conference in 1984, which then set a goal of reforming medical science. Then came Chris Anderson, who acquired and expanded the focus of TED to all aspects of life and science through his nonprofit foundation in 2001. By now, TED has become the largest opinion- and knowledge-sharing forum and global community. Many known and later recognised speakers delivered inspiring presentations onstage at TED: Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, Jane Goodall, Frank Gehry, Paul Simon, Sir Richard Branson, Elizabeth Gilbert, Philippe Starck, Alain de Botton, Isabel Allende, Gordon Brown and Bono. All talked passionately about their professions or inventions. TED clearly adheres to the idea of Ideas Worth Spreading. TED conferences, with maximum 18-minute-long thought-provoking and entertaining presentations, provide an extremely intense and inspiring experience. TED lifted the former conference experience to a totally different dimension, by presenting even the greatest professional success in a generally understandable manner. This has made it one of the most popular and most important conferences in the world. Apart from TED’s creative programmes – such as the Ted Fellows scholarship programme, TEDBooks e-books, TEDAd advertisements – the most progressive initiative is TED-ED, which disseminates video animation for educational purposes, in order to develop the knowledge and expand the global vision of the future generation. The lessons make the complicated phenomena of the world easily understandable even to the youngest generations, while creating a basis for the up-todate knowledge of the new generation.

THE DANUBE CONNECTS US The TEDx program consolidates the licence-based events, implemented with the spirit of TED as independent, locally organised events. This is indicated by the “x” next to TED. The TEDx programmes provide opportunities for organisations and individuals to create an active community with the involvement of the local audience in the spirit of Ideas Worth Spreading. TEDxDanubia is the official Hungarian version, organised locally with increasing success since 2010.

During his strategic research, Parag Khanna reached a conclusion that a better, more effective and liveable world could be created by devoting more attention and energy to the infrastructure and geographic cross-border connections, instead of using border lines. Hence the conference was given the title “Danubia” with the intention of the organisers to create a cross-border infrastructure of dialogue and joint thinking. The purpose of the series of conferences is to collect the most innovative and inspiring thinkers and authors in the country and the region from various aspects of life to share their ideas, while also inviting the audience to open themselves up to new areas and new ideas. TEDxDanubia is a special platform that enables outstanding experts to become the driving forces of future changes in Hungary as well. The presentations last for 5-18 minutes. At the conference held in May 2015, the audience listened to 10 presentations in Hungarian and 15 presentations in English. The eighth Hungarian edition of TED continued to seek answers to issues concerning the development of a better and liveable world and sustainable future.

DANIELLE FONG A Twenty-seven-year-old Danielle, describing herself as “a girl from the future,” was included in the list of “30 innovators aged under 30” in Forbes magazine in 2011, in the Energy and Industry category. At the age of 12 she dropped out of secondary school in order to attend Dalhousie University with special permission. At the age of 17, she graduated in computer technology and physics with honours. Straightaway, she was admitted to the PhD programme of the Princeton University’s Department of Plasma Physics, but later suspended her doctorate studies. At the age of 20 she was the co-founder of LightSail Energy, a green enterprise, and she still works there as a lead researcher, developing her revolutionary innovations by perfecting compressed air energy storage systems with a general objective of working with intermittent resources (wind and solar energy). As a mentor, she is actively involved in the activities of the Thiel Fellowship association (established to encourage the pioneering and innovative solutions of young scientists), the YCombinator company (founded to finance start-up enterprises) and the Energy Incubator activities of Berkeley National Laboratory on Cyclotron Road. TEDXDANUBIA 2015 The high-quality presentations of the 2015 conference were built on the concept of “Balance on the Edge of a Blade” and fit the traditions of the previous years, which concentrated on whether it was possible to maintain balance in the permanent, yet constantly changing world and paths we should follow in the future. There were even more reputable international lecturers among the speakers than before – including Peggy Dulany Rockefeller, the fourth generation descendant of the Rockefeller oil and banking dynasty; Leonard Brody, a recognised opinion-leader of the media and start-up world; Judit Polgár, chess grandmaster; Noah Raford, applied

future researcher; Hannu Rajaniemi, theoretical physician and writer; and Danielle Fong, the young titan in green energy research. The event consisted of three units this year, too. The main units covered the topics of finding the right paths under the title “Chaos and Order”, “Perception and Reality” and “Ariadne’s Thread”. The audience rewarded two presentations with long applause that lasted for minutes. The first presentation was by Sammy Rangel, who served his prison sentence in American high security prisons, was pushed to the periphery of society, and described how he gained strength from the most desperate situation and a personal crisis to find new ways and to start a new life. The second presentation was by a Hungarian speaker, Andrea Joós, who shared the challenges and opportunities of a teacher’s career. In her presentation, she explained how our own approach and attitude shaped the complex image of a teacher’s profession and what positive consequences would emerge if we came to embrace the teaching profession and the messages it would convey to teachers, students and parents. Peggy Dulany, the great-great-grandchild of the oil magnate John D. Rockefeller, also delivered a very interesting presentation as founder and president of Synergos Institute, the mission of which is to develop innovative solutions to resolve social disparities. The method developed by the global non-profit organisation intends to achieve its objectives with social cooperation, involving local groups, government agencies and leaders of business life, through joint activities. Leonard Brody, media expert and start-up guru, also known as the “divisive torchbearer of the new world order,” appeared onstage. Brody gave the audience a brief presentation on the on-line characteristics of users and new types of enterprises in terms of business thinking. Noah Raford, applied future researcher, as well as senior consultant on innovation and strategy to the United Arab Emirates, presented a fantastic topic, addressing a future without maps or planning. The event also provided an opportunity for a number of Hungarian opinion-leaders. Astrophysicist and energy strategist Zsolt Hetesi talked about the role of science and sustainability; Judit Polgár gave a presentation on the “Chess Palace” educational programme, launched by the Judit Polgár Chess Foundation in 2012, as a unique methodology programme

BUDAPEST HUB: MEETING POINT OF WORLD FAMOUS RESEARCHERS

for general skill development and for the promotion of logical and creative thinking. The presentation by astronomer László Kiss should also be highlighted. Scientific communication, which plays an increasingly important role in communication these days, is one of his fields of professional expertise. TEDxUniversity, an old tradition of the TEDx conferences, was also part of the programme. Within the framework of TEDxUniversity, speakers, often with personal links to the history of TedxDanubia, including Tibor Benedek, holding the title of one of the world’s best water polo players, took to the stage. THE TEDX EFFECT An audience of more than 500 people listened to the presentations live in the full-hour event held at Uránia National Film Theatre. Researchers, students, businesspersons and teachers appeared in the audience. The tickets for the 2015 event were sold out by the end of April, which was a sign of the event’s success, partly owing to the fact that increasingly recognised experts also honoured it with their presence. In relation to the key issue of the 2015 TEDxDanubia, the popular experts gave unconventional presentations and shared their thoughts on new opportunities that can assist our lives in the future. According to the TED spirit and approach, the presentations are freely available on the TEDxDanubia website, not only for the participants, but also for any interested individual. It is a clear sign of popularity and demand for the videos that the presentation by Andrea Joós, which was the first to be uploaded to our website, was viewed on by 40 thousand viewers in 3 days. In 2016, TEDxDanubia as an initiative will take on new momentum and be organised in a new form, focusing on the development and stimulation of the culture of social dialogue and the dissemination of the TED spirit. Within that, an especially important topic will be the discovery of the future through an understanding of the past. “What is our relationship with our future? Has it changed? Does it matter at all? What can we see? What can we not see, though we should be able to see it? Where do we come from? Where are we going? How should we survive? How should we look for success? And how can we make our lives complete? The only way to change our world is to be ready to imagine something better.”

PAGEO AND THE TED As TEDxDanubia is a strictly non-profit organisation, the 2015 conference was organised with the help of supporters and patrons. All supporting and cooperating partners contributed to the success of the event in a unique way (through workshops and innovative demonstrations). Pallas Athene Geopolitical Foundation organised a seminar and invited international trendsetters to TEDx, such as Leonard Brody, Noah Raford and Danielle Fong. Authors: Csaba Mányai and Imre Végvári

LEONARD BRODY A Canadian entrepreneur, bestselling writer and world-famous media expert, he has been nominated for the Emmy Award twice. BC Globe and Mail magazine included him in the “Top 40 under 40” list of Canadian entrepreneurs. He is an advisor to governments, to venture capital companies in several countries and to multinational companies, including Forbes, Financial Times, Warner Music and MTV Enterprises. Still, he has also worked as the senior advisor to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada. He is one of the most popular star speakers in the world and has given presentations at numerous institutions and conferences, including Stanford University, the G8 Forum and the UN. He is the co-founder of the NowPublic. com news portal, a pioneer in civic journalism and listed among the “World’s 50 Best Websites” by Time Magazine, as well as nominated for the Emmy Award in 2009. He is the chairman of Clarity Digital Group, which supervises one of the world’s largest consolidated on-line news portals. His activities have been covered in numerous articles, in the columns of The Wall Street Journal, by the BBC and in The New York Times.

FUTURE WITHOUT MAPS 34

photo: Hajnal Andrรกs

NOAH RAFORD: STRATEGIC PLANNING Noah Raford gave a presentation in Budapest at the invitation of PAGEO

Maps are the cornerstones of our society and the symbols of how we see ourselves and our place in the world, because they help us plan and achieve our goals.

NOAH RAFORD, CROWDSOURCING AND START-UP GURU, ADVISER-EXPERT A technology adviser; the expert of an automated work organisation process known as crowdsourcing; a start-up guru; a senior adviser on innovation and strategy holding several positions within the government of the United Arab Emirates; cofounder and chief executive officer of futurescaper.com, registered in London and Dubai; and co-author of the book Warlords,Inc.: Black Markets, Broken States and the Rise of the Warlord Entrepreneur. Raford’s name is also associated with the “Drones for Good” Award, introduced in the United Arab Emirates, urging the utilisation of drones in the development of support and public service systems, as well as the establishment of the International Council of Artificial Intelligence

and Robotics and the Museum of the Future. He obtained his doctorate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, his master’s degree at Bartlett School of Architecture and a multidisciplinary university diploma at Brown University. He has worked as director of the North American Region of Space Syntax Limited, an advisory company; as a scientific collaborator of the London School of Economics; as an assistant professor at the University College of London; and as a member of staff at the International Future Forum. He is also a partially retired techno-DJ, who occasionally runs the Nerd House podcast broadcast and writes a blog about 21 st-century strategies and design.

Today, I would like to talk about what I call Future Without Maps. How do maps relate to design and strategy and to the future of our changing world? Maps are the cornerstones of our society. They are symbols of how we see ourselves and our place in the world, because they help us plan and achieve our goals. Maps have a special power. The heliocentric map shows the Earth revolving around the Sun and not on the other way round. These days, it seems a simple fact, and therefore it is easy to forget that the acceptance of this theory cost thousands of lives and took hundreds of years. Maps are not only symbols of who we are and the world we live in, but are also powerful tools.

We make a route for our selected target. Or we prepare a road map to achieve our target. If an individual embarks on a new business, we prepare a business map. Companies prepare technological world maps to outline the plan of their investments. Countries, nations and banks form strategies to achieve their goals. The English word “map” means a noun referring to a map or a diagram, and also a process for how we achieve our goals. It is no exaggeration to say that maps and a road map are fundamental aspects of almost all strategic plans.

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NOAH RAFORD: STRATEGIC PLANNING

“What can we do without a map? This will be the fundamental issue of the 21st century.” We are taught to first analyse the world around us and then to make a map – either literally or in an abstract sense – then define where we are and where we would like to be in the future. We need to define our goals and plans, and once we have come up with an idea, we should invent different routes and tools to achieve it. What is the simplest route? How to assess the options? Once we have found a strategic opportunity, we should use our resources for implementation. The right order is: analysis, planning and implementation. WILL THE CHANGING WORLD DESTROY THE MAP? The most important question is: What to do without a map? This will be the fundamental question for the 21st century, because I think that the age of maps and map-based planning is over. What can we do if we do not have exact maps, and when the world around us changes so fast that we are unable to capture the changes on the map? What can we do when the information read from the map creates uncertainty, even if otherwise we would find our way on the map?

DUBAI AND CHINA HAVE MADE IT Dubai has the busiest airport in the world. Each year more than 70 million people use it. The shopping centre of the airport is the busiest tourist attraction in the world. This site is visited by more people than the total population of France. This is because Dubai is at the intersection of the developing East, Africa and the Western world. The largest IPO of the world, Alibaba, comes from China. Alibaba alone provides all the services that are provided by Western companies. Consequently, this single company does everything that is otherwise performed by PayPal, Amazon, Google, JCPenney, Dropbox, GROUPON, WhatsApp, e-Bay, Orbitz, Kaplan, Twitter, Spotify, Hulu and ING. It is one company.

If, therefore, it is difficult to create a map and it is impossible to create an exact map, how can we make an effective plan? And what can we expect if we are unable to make an effective plan? I do not think that anybody need be convinced of the fact that the world is changing. The most important aspects of our lives go through dynamic, unprecedented structural changes. The changes affect politics, government, economy, technology, climate, demography and society, even our own family and social interests. There is pressure on all important aspects of our life to obtain new experience in some new way. Interestingly, the greatest pressure and changes are driven from inside. Are you a banker? How does climate change affect the banking system? Are you engaged in technology? How are your main products affected by the political sets of values of your customers? Consequently, the change is not only dramatic, but so complex that it is almost impossible to track the process. IMPROVISATION AND CREATIVITY INSTEAD OF MAPS AND PLANS Naturally, history goes back to technology. As if in a sci-fi, we come across technology breakthroughs each week. As an example, in the past driverless cars existed only in our fantasy, but by now they have run more than a million hours. The latest Tesla model also has a driverless function. Within the next few years, cars will be fully automated, transforming urban traffic and transportation. In my opinion, it is only the tip of the iceberg. Automated mechanisms, robots and software intelligence will transform the majority of the economy. Apart from a few employees, the Amazon warehouse is fully controlled by robots. According to a study published recently by the University of Oxford, 50 per cent of the jobs in the United States may be automated within the next ten years. A number of jobs – such as lawyers, retail salesmen, tax advisers and financial advisers – are likely to be replaced at a rate of 85-90%. This is not even close to what we have already achieved in biology and synthetic biology. Earlier this month, Chinese gene researchers announced that they had successfully modified human embryos. This was the first occasion published, and I can say without any exaggeration that the same process has been under development in China for three-four years.

This problem raises issues in the education system, labour market training and the allocation of internal funds within society. I have two small children, and when they ask me what they should be studying at school, I find it very difficult to respond, because I do not know where the world or the labour market will be in ten or fifteen yearsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; time when my children will get there.

fundamentally that the dynamism of the system has become absolutely chaotic. There is no fundamental mathematical probability. The situation is the same when we do not have adequate information. In such cases, we must find new strategies with which we can work effectively even without plans.

Unfortunately, this year we have surpassed the dramatic 400 million ppm in environmental protection. This is the level of CO2 in the composition of the atmosphere when global warming has reached a point, due to the primary greenhouse gas

There are five principles that can help us plan effectively in a world without maps.

effect, which scientists consider change almost irreversible. We already experience frequent tropical storms and floods, as well as droughts and increasing consequential losses. The coexistence of these factors will drive food prices up, which will then lead to social tensions, as seen in the Arab countries. Many argue that we live in a period of a dramatic change, but I believe that it is not the period of change, but the change of the periods. We will need new principles and new approaches. If that is the case and our traditional planning models and maps are becoming less effective, what can we use as the basis of our strategies in an effective planning model? LET US PLAN THE FUTURE WITHOUT A MAP! Having spent the last decade and the last fifteen years in this field, I have tried to approach this issue from scientific aspects. The theory of Frank Knight, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, about uncertainty is known to all of us. The first type of uncertainty means that there are certain conditions, and the distribution of probability and risks can be measured reliably. This is the world where we all exist and operate and upon which national and financial policies are based. It is a kind of gambling, where the distribution of probability in the mathematical system connects with the macro and micro economy. What we need to face is what Frank Knight referred to as the second type of uncertainty. This is the situation when the distribution of probability of an expected event cannot be defined. Perhaps it is because it is too new or we do not have any historical experience to define probability, or the rules have changed so

NO. 1: Start with what you have. Traditionally we think that resources must be accumulated before taking action. As we live in an imperfect world, we will never achieve exactly what we want. Consequently, instead of waiting for resources before acting, let us take a look at what we have and try to imagine the opportunity for which it provides a framework. This is known as an effect approach, compared to the cause approach. When scientists study an issue, they think of what it could be. We, designers and entrepreneurs, ask what it could lead to. So, instead of trying to define the final situation before asking the question itself, we should follow designers and entrepreneurs and ask the following question: Here is everything I have, what can I achieve with it? This is a much more effective method at the level of basic structural uncertainty. NO. 2: Find partners who share ideas with you, and combine your resources in order to create opportunities! NO. 3: Once you have those, get into it! Do not prepare studies or a strategy! I am delivering a presentation now, but only because I have to. There should be no more studies, only experiments! NO. 4: Complete small tasks that give feedback about the world! Check whether your model reflects exactly how things change in the world! The best way to do it is to experiment. You will have a picture about how the world is changing around you only after receiving feedback and once you have extracted as much as possible from it.

NOAH RAFORD: STRATEGIC PLANNING

NO. 5: Once you have noticed the change in your environment and you have taken an opportunity that is based on thousands of tests and experiments, take that opportunity as quickly as you can. Find a weakness, find a gap! Once you have reached that, involve your partners and concentrate all your resources on that gap. This process helps to recognise strategic gaps and break through them before anybody else would be able to respond. This is the only method with which you can find new areas that you were not even aware of before and could not have conquered without concentrating your resources or your friends, colleagues and allies.

home with a drone. The video was uploaded to YouTube in the night and was viewed more than two million times the subsequent day. This concept was so popular with the people that it was shared across the world and was also extensively covered by the press. It was received much more positively than the Amazon announcement of their drone-based home delivery service. It was only an idea, though. However, with that test, we created interest in drones. We wanted to launch an international competition and announced a one-million-dollar contest the same afternoon called the Drones for Good Award. This is an award which was created to encourage innovation and creative applications with which people’s lives could be

IF THE WORLD IS CHANGING, ACCOMMODATE AND CREATE THE CHANGE

improved at several levels with the help of drones. It was a huge success. More than 800 entries were received from 57 different countries. Twelve different companies were established in the process, one of which was founded one day after the Dubai meeting. Next year’s contest, the Robotics for Good Award, was announced the very same week.

When you are faster and more experienced, you will be able to respond more effectively not only to the changing world, but you can also create the change you would like to see in the world. FROM FOUR HOURS TO WORK TO THE MUSEUM OF THE FUTURE Let me share with you a few examples from my own personal experience that will show you how I have reached these principles and how they function in real life. I was asked to create an exhibition of emerging technology and its impact on the economy and the government. I was not sure that people would be interested in it at all. I wanted to make it effective. As I did not know how to achieve that, experiments began. Not only was an exhibition created, but seven various objects were taken to the site, presenting, among other things, 3D printing, extended and virtual reality, telepresence robots and drones which people could test. It became obvious on the very first day that people were interested in the drones. An administrative officer with modern thinking approached me and asked, “Look, what can we use this for? You have employees here, the exhibition team, some of whom work in film. Why don’t you produce a video, presenting how to make drones serve the public?” I am not exaggerating. After that, the video was completed in four hours. On the video, an imaginary public employee shows how your driver's licence or personal ID card could be renewed through your mobile phone, Then, it would be printed in a local centre and sent to your

Let us analyse what happened. If I had started by saying that I was negotiating with the government, asking for one million dollars to establish an award with which people’s lives could be approved with drones, the answer would have been “You are crazy.” That would have been the answer even if I had been certain of success. Instead, we based the process on what already existed, conducted various experiments to see how people responded to them, identified the potential responses and turned an area into a creative opportunity, which we did not even know existed. As I mentioned earlier, this state exhibition was called the Museum of the Future. The first was dedicated to the drones and turned out to be very interesting, but reached very few people. However, it became a reference point and proof of the need for such events. The following year, we raised more funds and had a greater plan following a smart city environment where people could walk in and test things like cars driving themselves, teachers with artificial intelligence, personalised supply of drugs, playful education and health. This generated a lot of public support. It was opened by the Prime Minister himself in front of 5,000 CEOs and ministers, and administrative officers came to take part in it from all regions of the world. After that,

Dubai decided to invest in a permanent Museum of the Future. The building is already being constructed and will be opened at the end of 2017 with the objective of becoming the centre of development without maps. It will be characterised by prototype development, finding opportunities, tests, processing of the responses of the market and the world, and flexible spending on positive responses.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;If you wish to live effectively in this world, you must fully transform your previous way of thinking.â&#x20AC;? This will be a special building with an interesting feature: certain parts of the building will be made with 3D printing by the company that was attracted to Dubai during one of the first discussions in a coffee house. It is an interesting story of how these principles can create an unexpected powerful result without plans. At the beginning we would have been unable to define these as objectives, and we would not have known how to reach them. We had no budget or licences, and therefore the most my team and I could do was to project and anticipate the legal and licensing issues. Let us look at this for a moment. This could be the method whereby we learned to plan our strategies, as it exists in BA and MA training. You start with what you would like to achieve, select the best way to reach it, and then find tools for how to do it.

BUILDING CONNECTIONS, ACTION, REPETITION I believe that the way we currently live in the world is less and less effective, and if you still wish to live effectively in this world, you must fully transform your previous way of thinking. Start with the tools that are accessible! Let us take a look at the modes that provide an opportunity for work and the strategic opportunities available to us and only then start thinking of where we could get to as a result. This is a flexible approach to strategy that fundamentally assumes a world without maps. Well, this is a very interesting part of the story. With an hour of imagination, we can make a substantial change in the world, and we have a certain level of understanding of where it can lead. There are only a few institutions that accept this space, full of ideas. Central banks could be such, a few prime ministers and huge companies like Apple. Still, most of them do not live in the same space, and I would dispute whether truly effective ideas are created in their space. I would like to finish with a final thought. Unpredictable control is the key to efficiency in this dynamically changing world. This does not only mean that we are not aware of the rules; the rules also change from one month to the next. The only thing you can do is to find partners who share your ideas and use your resources on the positive feedback of experiments, then start again. Again and again...

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THE AGE OF GEO-ECONOMICS Authors: Géza Salamin, Norbert Csizmadia, Júlia Gutpintér, Fruzsina Simigh

Driven by the economy and society, the role of geographic space has transformed radically in the 21 st century. With the reduction of transportation costs and technologies spanning physical space, actual space has shrunk. Yet, it is also becoming “denser,” to refer to the words of Attila Korompai. Economic barriers are decreasing, international standards are integrating, and consumption habits are homogenising with the simultaneous development of a global economy that increasingly functions as an organic unit. Globalisation is not a surprising process to anyone, but what is the role of geography in this homogeneous world?

A good example of standardisation is that large financial institutions have representation offices in almost each important economy, and capital flows freely among the various regions of the world. Richard O’Brien published a book analysing the international financial system in the beginning of the 1990s under the title Global Financial Integration: the Death of Geography. According to O’Brien, even now, billions of dollars are exchanged on international financial markets every day; with the help of modern information technology, billions of dollars can be sent from one corner of the world to another in seconds. O’Brien also predicts “geographic situation will no longer be a factor in economic development in the near future”. These days we can certainly state that O’Brien’s projection did not come true. What we find is that, over the last ten years, geography has gained importance in professional-scientific and economic policy discussions related to the global restructuring of the world. A number of “bestseller thinkers” focusing on the global economic and social issues of the world write about the increasing role of geography – e.g., towns. For example, in the process of an emergent creative class that determines competitiveness, Richard Florida considers the role of places – more specifically, cities – essential. Moreover, Edward L.

Glaeser, while Professor of Economics at Harvard University, wrote one of his most important works of 2011 about the (economic) triumph of cities. At the same time, we must also note that Robert D. Kaplan, a geopolitical “guru,” draws attention to the recognition of the determining role of spatiality in global processes in his book entitled The Revenge of Geography, which can be considered a published response to O’Brian. These days we find that although geography as a science may still be moderately in the background, geographic aspects appear in more popular disciplines. The geography of the world and smaller regions is gaining importance in the various fields of social science.

“...geography has gained importance. A number of “bestseller thinkers” focusing on the global economic and social issues of the world write about the increasing role of geography – e.g., towns...”

The new economic geography, introduced in 2008 by Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize winner, established a spatial balance model of growth and made geography a recognised part of economics. The revised cohesion policy of the European Union should also be noted in terms of the appreciation of geography. Since the publication of the Barca report in 2009, the implementation of location-based development came into the focus of attention for the 2014-2020 programme period. Territorial cohesion, which appeared in the Lisbon Treaty as a new objective, indicates a deeper understanding of geographic space and the influence of spatial organisation, which can also be achieved by introducing opportunities for territorially integrated programmes supported by targeted instruments (ITI – integrated territorial investment; CLLD – community-led local development). The introduction of the principle of flexible geography is another new component. It facilitates and encourages the implementation of development programmes aimed at different geographic areas, independent of economic border lines (NUTS system categories), but related to the implementation of European macro regional strategies (e.g., European Danube Strategy). WHAT HAPPENS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SPACE? What we can certainly state is that globalisation helps to reduce transportation costs, connecting remote areas and increasing spatial production systems that stretch across the globe. In a knowledge-based economy, a first glimpse suggests that information totally disregards physical space and can reach almost any point of the globe immediately, owing to the unbroken development of digital technologies. At the same time, we still see that there are strong territorial concentration tendencies in the economy, where the role of municipalities is increasingly important. The technical literature has revealed numerous reasons for this. On one hand, the importance of the effects of agglomeration is becoming stronger. Although considerable parts of product markets are globalising, and more and more companies are present over a larger territory of the world, the workforce and technology are very much fixed to particular locations. Although it is, in fact, true that the

production networks span the entire globe, there are totally different types of activities present in the central regions of economies, and again fully divergent activities are pursued in the less developed peripheries of the world. The difference can be grasped primarily through added value: the high wage costs of advanced economies can be funded only through continuous innovation and monopolies of new products. Mass production can be pursued in less advanced regions where costs are lower. The competitiveness of globally efficient companies is very strongly determined by the conditions of their operating environment and regional specificities.

“In addition to the geographic spread of economic activities, local tendencies are also becoming stronger.” Imre Lengyel, one of the best known Hungarian researchers of the spatial operation of economy, summarises the main consequences of globalisation in terms of the spatial features of geography. He believes that – as a result of the main globalisation processes and the spread of info-communication and deregulation – these days, we can observe a dual spatial process. In addition to the geographic spread of economic activities, local tendencies are also becoming stronger. In other words, the economic role of spatial concentration has become more important, and long-term relations between remote business partners have also grown stronger. The companies of global industries make plans in country groups in terms of product markets and sales, while thinking of sub-national regions (generally in terms of municipalities and their vicinities) when organising their input markets and production. Globally competing companies have long recognised that the sources of their competitive advantages are concentrated in space, and therefore they must take action locally to strengthen those advantages. This industrial competition led to the appreciation of the economic role of regions and territorial units, which was reflected partly in the rivalry between regions and the competition of muncipalities with special characteristics, as well as in the increased utilisation for business purposes

of the agglomeration advantages stemming from spatial concentration – practically, spatial external economies of scale. (Lengyel 2015) As a result of the above processes, it is certain that several initial assumptions of economic science must be reassessed, including territorial competition and the economic growth and development closely related to it, as well as economic policy and development ideas as responses to new challenges.

Consequently, communication through IT devices supplements and improves the efficiency of personal meetings, but it is no substitute for them. Personal relations lead to more trust, esteem and more effective cooperation. In relations to patents, geographic closeness is another important factor, because it has been shown that, with regard to patent references, there are twice as many patents referring to and quoting each other within the region of one metropolis.

WHERE DOES KNOWLEDGE COME FROM?

According to Glaeser, in the age of information technology and society, contrary to previously projected visions, the importance of geographic space does not disappear. New ideas and knowledge creation, as

Knowledge is created where there is a diversified creative workforce and where different types of activities are pursued. The same is true of companies that have different profiles, but which supplement or stimulate each other’s operations. In fact, the process of acquiring dominance in the knowledge economy is also of a dual nature in terms of the role of geography. In his book, The Triumph of the City, Glaeser stresses the importance of personal meetings in relation to the progress of the internet and information technology (IT) – not to mention their frequent excessive valuation – referring to numerous research results which showed that groups which maintained contact only electronically broke up sooner than groups whose members also met each other.

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well as the conditions for them, are still determined geographically, and geographic space (geographic configuration of development actors) still has an important impact on innovation and productivity. In 2006 Imre Lengyel pointed out in his work that only part of knowledge, the knowledge suitable for digitisation, may be transported globally with the help of information technology. There is a dimension of knowledge that can only be passed on through personal face-to-face connections. In fact, this is the only way it is created and reduced. This is cognitive knowledge, tacit knowledge, which carries the true secrets of innovation, production technology and the successful operation of the economy.

THE AGE OF GEO-ECONOMICS

GEO-ECONOMIC FORECASTS There are also remarkable efforts to integrate the geographic dimension, which are becoming increasingly obvious in the economic development of countries and the world, as well as in the mainstream of economics. However, even though the framework of economics has expanded, it is clear that practically neo-classic economics, in addition to the Keynesian approach, can explain, much less forecast, changes less and less. A partial list may include China’s becoming an economic superpower; the economic crisis that broke out in 2008; the Middle East power arena, transformed after the Arab Spring, which also affected the essence of Europe; or the rise or fall of various macro regions. New knowledge areas are taking shape based on the recognition that global development is better explained by geographic and historic correlations.

Geo-economics, formed on the borderline of geopolitics, geography and economics, is just such an experiment. The concept was introduced in the technical literature at the end of the 1990s (e.g., Bárdos – Féltoronyi 2002, De Castro 2000, Lorot 1999, Soilen 2012, Solomon 1992, Ducastel 2001). To learn more about development paths, we definitely need to take into account the recognition of geography and political events related to space, which occasionally clearly shape our future even if they cannot be explained by the models of mainstream of economics.

Geo-economics “is a competition that is determined by the grammar of trade and the logic of war.” (Edward Luttwak)

WINNERS AND LOOSERS OF GEO-ECONOMICS The World Economic Forum study brings to our attention seven global economic challenges in the first half of the 21st century.

ECONOMIC WARFARE Advanced societies lack the support of their population for military intervention. Therefore, they opt for economic sanctions (as seen in relation to the Ukrainian crisis). However, an economic war can be a double-edged sword. The attacked country may introduce counter-sanctions, and a game hurting both parties with a non-zero-sum may begin. The greatest winners are the â&#x20AC;&#x153;laughing third partiesâ&#x20AC;? (e.g., China), who exploit the despair of the sanctioned party and grasp the new trade opportunities. The biggest losers are international organisations which lose their credibility if they are unable to prevent these conflicts in the international trade system.

The amount of capital available for investment has become more important than the volume of firearms; civil innovation capability has become more important than military and technical development; and market progress has been given preference over the invasion of military units. As globalisation expands, states can no longer define their strategies only according to internal interests. They must extend them into a global geo-economic strategy, in order to be able to integrate into the global economy more effectively, while improving their interest-enforcing capabilities. At the same time, the clear leading role of the United States seems to be dissolving. There are signs suggesting a multi-polar world, the impacts of which will also be reflected in economic relations. However, the essence of geo-economics cannot only be grasped in terms of which state will be capable of developing into a new economic superpower in the new international arena. What will be far more important is whether they will be able to transform acquired economic power into interest-enforcing political or perhaps military power. Globalisation allowed large powers to build strategies covering the whole world, but it never meant that they waived their regional hegemonic status. In recent years, smaller powers also concentrated around the regional hegemonies. However, excessive interdependence can just as easily maintain this fragile security as lead to the breakout of war. Relations, when too tight, can easily snap, especially when they are unbalanced. In the age of wars conducted with new economic sanctions, competing trade regimes, currency exchange rates, raw material and currency manipulations, the World Economic Forum identified seven challenges that affect geo-economic strategies.

Also losers of the process are potentially multinational companies seated in the West, which may lose their potentially significant markets. This trend can later lead to the de-globalisation of global companies. The injuries suffered in external markets may encourage multinational companies to return to their national roots and also, in order to mitigate risks, to make their decisions in line with the foreign policy of their own state. Another similar consequence could be the transformation of the international trade pattern. GEO-POLITISATION OF TRADE DIALOGUES The global and single trade system is becoming fragmented, with regional and pan-regional trade organisations, giving a boost to multi-polarisation and competition between regional blocks (trade and otherwise). Efforts by China and Russia to develop a new world order are the best example of the above: China intends to build a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership within the Trans-Pacific Partnership led by the USA. Meanwhile, Russia is trying to create the Eurasian Union vis a vis the EU. In Latin America, four emerging countries (Mexico, Columbia, Chile and Peru) would like to break Brazilâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s hegemony by forming a Pacific Alliance, later to be extended to other rich Asian countries. Within the new alliances, the role and responsibility of regional development banks will also increase, as those banks may become the backbone of these economic alliances (e.g., Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Eurasian Development Bank).

THE AGE OF GEO-ECONOMICS

Geopolitical rivalry increases political and economic competition, and the losers of these processes will be global consumers and companies as well as countries situated on the peripheries of the regional powers. STATE 2.0 After the financial crisis, central banks obtained a great deal of influence through the shaping of the monetary policy. By using unconventional tools, central banks promote the enforcement of national interests, exerting pressure beyond national borders, sometimes even on a global scale. Countries that have many major international companies (i.e., national champions) are undoubtedly the winners in this process. However, the USA has low state ownership in corporations and might emerge shaken from this game. The biggest losers might again be international organisations that have a global mandate, but limited instruments. Therefore, these might be replaced by regional cooperation. COMPETITION FOR CLOSED MARKETS In the age of geo-economics, the main objective is not so much to conquer an area that has raw materials, but much rather to acquire technology development opportunities and markets with sufficient populations. This transformation stems from two factors: 1) Resources are becoming cheaper and cheaper due to technological development (e.g., shale gas). Thus, dependence on traditional suppliers is also decreasing. 2) The demographic and economic growth of developing countries simultaneously generates significant global demand and a relatively cheap and trained workforce.

political and economic stability stand out even within that group. At the same time, the economic power of the countries producing mineral resources is also falling (e.g., Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran). The residents of advanced countries with average qualifications can also have a competitive disadvantage against any significantly cheaper workforce of similar qualifications. SURVIVAL OF THE BIGGEST AND HOLLOWING OUT OF THE PERIPHERY Many people think that the gridlock of global governance will lead to a world of orderly and harmonic regions rather than a world of chaos. The WEF points out that regionalisation fragments international trade and divides its assets among the states, forming blocks, unevenly. In fact, it also makes it more difficult to come up with a single global response to global challenges (epidemics, terrorism, internet crime, etc.). These integration blocks are concentrated around an economic hegemony that is geographically close to them, where it is in the interest of the centre to build a new centre-periphery relationship, where the smaller peripheral economies will become the economic, political and geostrategic servants of the centre. The three most obvious examples of this are the regional activities of Russia, China and Germany. For the time being, it is not clear whether these asymmetric bilateral relations will bring stronger regional powers and hollow out the peripheries. Unfortunately, the development of a multi-polar world order is likely to produce more Ukraines and fewer Singapores. CHINAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S ALLIANCE NET

The expansion in the relations between the US and Asia and the global infrastructural spread of China are good illustrations of the shift in the direction of strategic competition.

In relation to China, the organisation foresees a problem. The forming of new alliances does not stem from identical geopolitical interests, but from the purchase of commitments through investments. This can lead to political tensions not only at the local, but also at the global level.

The winners in this process will be countries that have increasing populations and income, in addition to a trained and cheap workforce. Countries that are attractive for investments and have a significant

Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s infrastructure development projects could become an important foreign policy tool in the 21st century, as the establishment of sea lines by America was in the 20th century.

These days, China surpasses even the traditional actors (e.g., the World Bank) in that field. Its primary targets are the Indian Ocean countries, Africa and Latin America. China has also launched a series of new multilateral institutions to expand infrastructure finance activities, to improve infrastructure and to remove customs barriers and commercial bottlenecks that will benefit Chinese resource inflows and export outflows. China and export-oriented countries profiting from advanced infrastructure will be the clear winners of this process. China may also create dangers for itself. The heavy indebtedness towards China and the low raw material prices can easily lead to political tensions (e.g., in Myanmar and several African countries). THE DECLINE IN OIL PRICES After three years of unusual stability, oil prices fell steeply in the second half of 2014, dropping from USD 115 a barrel to USD 60 a barrel. On the one hand, this is a reminder that Saudi Arabia no longer plays the same stabilising role in oil markets that it once did and that price fluctuation can take another turn at any time. The ultimate winners and losers will depend on how nimbly governments respond to changing oil prices. India, for example, was able to reduce fuel subsidies because of the price reduction. Iran and Russia could be encouraged to strengthen their economies in different areas and not to rely only on their resources, that are only sporadic sources of revenues. The vulnerability of the two countries is often underestimated, but their stake in this conflict is far more geopolitical than economic.

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THE WEF PROPOSALS: What can the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s states do to prevent geopolitics from unravelling the achievements of globalization? What are the main risks to business and what can they do to mitigate them? The WEF report comes up with the following five proposals:

States must develop their rules of the road for economic warfare similarly to the agreements and conventions that govern the conduct of conventional wars between countries. The USA should take the initiative to explain these principles.

States must find the right balance concerning their economic involvement.

Smaller states will need to do more to pool their resources, and to prepare for the strengthening of the largest powers as well as the transformation of the peripheries.

Businesses will need to think more about where they come from and about their reputation in different markets.

The time for forums like G7 is over. Rather than relying on the international institutions, it is worth looking more carefully at the strategic interests of regional players. It is hard to define whether trade is followed by the appearance of political and military power, or the political expansion is followed by the expansion of trade connections. The stability of the international order favours to trade, therefore the interdependence-networks established by globalisation can be considered either as the results of the long-term peace or the forthcoming conflicts. Geo-economics cannot replace the geopolitical considerations, nevertheless, to understand the complex processes of the world, we need to consider both as complementary, mutually explanatory elements.

21ST CENTURY GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES Author: Ágnes Bernek

“In the world of geopolitics, the order created and deemed universal by Western countries is about to change. The improving intentions of ideas are understood across the world, but there is no agreement about their implementation; in fact, concepts like democracy, human rights or international law have been interpreted so many times that parties confronting each other usually use these words against each other as a ‘battle cry’.” Henry Kissinger: World Order

THE CHANGING WORLD ECONOMIC AND WORLD POLITICAL SYSTEM OF THE 21ST CENTURY

It is likely that geopolitical studies to be written in 2030 and in 2040 will look at 2014 as the turning point of geopolitics, primarily because the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia in March shocked the Western world, suggesting that territorial revisions could occur in 21st-century Europe. Is it possible to reshape Europe’s map? Can the territorial integrity of a country be violated? Will one of the most important principles of international law (i.e., the principle of the sovereignty of countries) lose its effect by the 21st century? Is the fundamental question - whether this is the end of the unipolar world - also unavoidable?

“The increasing globalism of the world means that emphasis is shifted from independent national economies to the dominant role of the global market.” This is what I wrote in 2000, when the global world market was the most important territorial level. However, in 2016, based on my current world economy and world policy research, I believe that the 2008 financial crisis marked the start of a new “de-globalisation” period. In other words, aside from the dominant role of the global world market, large territorial and regional markets and large territorial regional power spheres are becoming increasingly important. That is because the emerging markets are building their economic- and political-interest spheres, primarily at large regional and continental levels, not yet globally.

For the time being, the only answer we can give to the last question is, most probably, yes. Following the unipolar world dominated by the Atlantic power sphere, we are now on the threshold of a multi-polar world. This is still only a transition period, as the international economic and political system is still Anglo-Saxon dominated. However, it is indisputable that, with the loss of the hegemony and leading role of the US and the strengthening of emerging markets these days, a new world order is developing both in terms of the world economy and world politics.

In this new, 21st-century, transitory “de-globalisation” period, the role of national economies and national states in the global economic and global political processes is more dominant in the beginning of the 21st century than it was in the last decade of the 1990s. National economic and national state aims of large emerging markets are much stronger than they were before and following the 2008 crisis. Nationalist efforts and protectionist economic policies gained strength even in developed countries.

Another factor suggesting stronger national economies is that the 21st century can also be described as the competition of “giants” or large economic great powers, to use the geopolitical term. It is indisputable that, at present, economic size, (that is, economic power) is the most important factor. These days, the aggregated GNI of the 20 largest national economies of the world represent 80% of the total global GNI, and nine of the world’s twenty largest national economies are emerging markets. Otherwise, the two most important establishing factors of transnational companies also relate to economic size, specifically the prospect of market growth and the size of the market itself. The total GNI figure is also an im-

Nevertheless, for Hungary, the role of the Central Eastern European region in “Pax Russica” (i.e., the “Russian Empire”) organised on the Eurasian continent is a cardinal issue. In fact, if the global economic weight of the 21st century shifts to the Pacific Ocean region, it will re-organise power lines across continents and the relationships among them. Although a multi-polar world is developing along with a new world order, the decades-long Cold War confrontation, concluded in the 1990s, still continues to exist in our political thinking and in the definitions we use to analyse international relations. Thus, the world has not yet been able to break away from Cold War associations, and it is as though 2014

portant aspect of market rating. Another major factor in the new multi-polar period of our times is the increasing role of continents and large regional power spheres, clearly growing both in terms of global economy and global politics. For the large powers and large emerging markets, geostrategic thinking and the building of large regional power zones are more important than ever before. “Empire thinking” has returned as the main component of geopolitical efforts to create large power. How is the 21st century’s “Pax Americana” (i.e., “American Empire”) shaping up in space?

marked the start of a new period reminding us of the Cold War again. In this period, the confrontation between the West (Euro-Atlantic power zone) and East (Russia) has again strengthened. In this situation, the West, which still believes that it holds the position of power, introduces ever newer economic sanctions against Russia and is surprised to see that Russia is capable of responding. Indeed, Russian national awareness, its declaration of independence, and the independent geopolitical strategy of the Russian state are much stronger than they were just a few years ago.

Washington, USA

IS THE REVIVAL OF ORTHODOX GEOPOLITICS THE GEOPOLITICAL “GREAT CHESSBOARD” OF THE 21ST CENTURY? By now, 21st-century geo-economics (exercising power with economic tools) has become a widely used concept. According to the classic definition by Edward Luttwak, geo-economics is the continuation of the ancient armed conflict between nations with new economic tools. According to my research, geoeconomics can also be expressed as the economic interpretation of the correlation between politics and space – or, in other words, the implementation of geo-strategies with economic instruments, more specifically the instruments of the global world market’s transnational companies and international capital flows. What type of geo-economic strategy may exist? On the basis of military science (since the word strategy originally came from military science and represented the science of top military leadership; in the

Boulder, Colorado, 2015

Luttwak approach, the current battlefield is nothing but economic rivalry between states), in my opinion, there are two fundamental geo-economic strategies: the defensive and offensive. In fact, Luttwak’s original expression, capturing the essence of geo-economics as the logic of conflicts and practice of trade, may also be modified to the “logic of conflicts and the set of tools of the global world market”. At the same time, the fact that, indisputably, the most frequently quoted author in terms of currentday geopolitics is Halford J. Mackinder (1861-1947), a British geographer of Scottish origin, also illustrates clearly the unchanged nature of geopolitics, the lack of new geopolitics and the renaissance of the orthodox (traditional) geopolitical approach (exercising power with militaristic tools). The two most important expressions of geopolitics – namely, heartland and Eurasia – are also associated with Mackinder, according to which:

21 ST CENTURY GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES

“Those who rule the heartland, command the world island; those who rule the world island, command the world.” (Mackinder, 1919.) This quotation is regularly used in current geopolitical studies as those who rule the “heartland” command the world. In the 21 st century, the “heartland” has moved to Central Asia,. Nonetheless, after the Ukrainian events, more and more people point out that Eastern Europe still plays a prominent role in global politics. In the 21st century, the “heartland” can also be defined as the “confrontation pole” of the geopolitical area. Mackinder's most famous study was published under the title “The Geographical Pivot of History” and was presented at the meeting of the British Royal Geographic Society held on January 25, 1904. In relation to the political analysis of Europe and Asia, Mackinder tried to find correlations between geographic and historic processes and major events. The political concept of Eurasia does not simply refer to the fact that geographically Europe and Asia are one continent, but specifies the idea that the people and states of Europe and Asia constitute the centre of global power, an idea that also originates from him. The term “World Island” included in the above quotation also refers to Eurasia, the largest land mass continent in the world. At the same time, Eurasia is one of the most disputed concepts in current geopolitical thinking. The Western and Central states of the European continent strongly reject any geopolitical notion that questions Europe’s independence. However, Eurasia has also become the central component of the new Russian geopolitics, developing since the year 2000; because, contrary to Atlanticism, the Eurasian concept (i.e., the development of new bipolarity/multi-polarity) is the key factor in Russia’s ongoing great power efforts. This is clearly illustrated by the V. Putin’s regular quotation of a sentence written by Alexander von Humboldt more than two hundred years ago, according to which “Europe is not an independent continent, only Western, really a fragmented peninsula of the almost unsegmented Asian continent.”

At the same time, exercising political power over the Eurasian zone has always been one of the key factors for American geopolitics in exercising global power. In his world-famous book titled The Great Chessboard, published in 1997, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote the following: “It is obvious that if America, which maintains versatile relations across the world, intends to maintain its role as the global power, it is advisable to prevent the development of a hegemonic and hostile Eurasian power. Finding a way amidst the power lines of Eurasia will remain a central issue.” The “great chessboard” of world politics was traditionally interpreted in the division of North and South, and West and East in the second half of the 20th century. The Brandt reports, prepared in the 1980s under the leadership of one-time German Chancellor Willy Brandt, presented the division of world politics and the global economy according to the geographic directions of North and South. The Brandt line divided the world in two (i.e., into the developed Northern and developing Southern countries) at the latitude30 degrees north. During the Cold War period, the Northern world was also divided on the basis of the political regimes into the capitalist Western world and the Eastern bloc of Communist states (the Soviet Union and the Communist European countries). This East-West breakdown is still the basis of our concept about international geopolitical space, even despite the fact that as a result of the systemic change starting in the 1990, the world has transformed into a unipolar area, and the international breakdown based on this Cold War logic is no longer relevant. In addition, with the emerging markets of the formerly “obsolete” southern countries, the North-South division also lost its significance. As such, in the 21st century, the term developing country is no longer applied in world politics or world economics. It is also important to highlight that the traditional geopolitical interpretation of the geographic compass points is also based on the obvious idea that the European continent is the centre of the world. That is why we always use global maps where Europe is in the middle. Therefore, the North-South and especially the West-East geopolitical approach assume that geopolitical space in the 21 st century will also be analysed traditionally, from the point of view of Europe. However, the geopolitical “great chessboard” of the 21st century will change fundamentally. Simultaneously with the crises of the European Union and European countries that stretches back to 2008, the

US President Barack Obama 56

â&#x20AC;&#x153;The everyday political rhetoric keeps repeating that as our enemies are becoming stronger, America is getting weaker. Let me say something about that. The United States of America is by far the nation that has the greatest power in the world. We spend more on our army than the following eight nations together. Our troops are the best fighting troops that ever existed in global history. There is no other country that would have the courage to attack us or our allies directly, because everybody knows that it would be a road to destruction. According to the surveys, our status in the world is now stronger than when I started my presidential mandate, and the global population calls upon us, and not on Beijing or Moscow, to lead the process of resolving any important international issue.â&#x20AC;? Excerpts from the State of the Union Address by US President Barack Obama, delivered to the US Congress on January 12, 2016

central region of the world is increasingly shifting to the Pacific Ocean zone. The great strategies of the 21st century are reviewed these days solely on the basis of the geopolitical efforts of three global powers (i.e., the US, Russia and China). The globe is turning, and, according to all projections, the 21st century will not be the century of the European continent. At the same time, the Europe-centred global concept will also change slowly, transforming also the interpretation of the international order established with the traditional NorthSouth and East-West divisions. Consequently, by using cartographic words, the point of orientation will change, and the world will no longer be interpreted

Cold War and the division according to the points of compass no longer exist. They have been replaced by a 21st century geopolitical spatial approach. The “new East” concept of Brzezinski focuses on China, South- and Southeast Asia, with which the US must build a new complex balancing relationship, in his opinion.

only from Brussels and Washington, but also from Beijing and Moscow. In short, a fundamentally new geopolitical spatial approach must be developed.

Clinton at several international forums, indicating that the 21st century will be the century of the USA in the Pacific Ocean zone. Analysing the current relationship between the USA and China (Foreign Affairs, Issue No. 2., 2012), Henry Kissinger urged a new trans-Pacific cooperation framework system.

THE GREATER WEST - THE US AND THE EUROPEAN UNION During his first presidential mandate between 2009 and 2012, Barack Obama introduced a new foreign policy to follow the Bush Doctrine, which was based on the principle of preventive strike. The main component of the new policy is “Smart Power” – i.e., a new geopolitical direction within the framework of which the formerly hegemonic American global political role, which was based only on military power (“Hard Power”) has been replaced by a new American power role that uses mainly diplomatic tools and relies on cooperation with the other countries of the world. At that time, the president’s foreign policy strategy was heavily criticised. The main criticism involved questions as to whether the leading power of the world can waive the extensive application of military power, and whether any power exercised through diplomatic channels can be successful at all. The two main ideologists behind that criticism remained the two great “old geopoliticians,” Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski. In the 2012 interpretation of Brzezinski, the geopolitical strategy of the US currently has two main components: “the greater West” and “the new East”. The “greater West” suggests that the main objective of the US is to strengthen the West and also add Russia and Turkey to its list of Western allies. This 2012 interpretation is no longer valid regarding Russia. Accordingly, the East-West division of the

It is no longer a game with a zero sum, and the competition of Great Powers approach, based only on Cold War logic, is also erroneous. The fact that the geopolitical arena of the 21st century and therefore the foreign policy principles of the US are changing is also obvious from the statements made by Hillary

Indisputably, the greatest achievement in that regard is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), signed in Atlanta in October 2015 by the USA and 11 Pacific Ocean states (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Mexico, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam). Although originally Henry Kissinger proposed this agreement build a stronger economic and political alliance between the USA and China, China did not sign the agreement, and it is unlikely that it will sign in the near future, either. Although the TPP is primarily a trade agreement, geopolitically, it is much more than that, as it is aimed at strengthening the power of the USA and strongly establishing a liberal global economic structure in the Pacific region. Its main objective, though, is to prevent China from expanding its economic interests within the Pacific region. At the moment, the TPP is still awaiting approval by the American Congress, but most probably this trade agreement will be one of the most important foreign policy successes for the departing Obama administration. In the spirit of the American “Smart Power” foreign policy direction, NATO Armed Forces led by the USA were finally withdrawn from Iraq in December 2011 and from Afghanistan in December 2014. One of the fundamental issues of Obama’s second presidential term is whether he will be able to resolve the Syrian problem, and whether he will be able to create an international coalition in the fight against the Islamic

21 ST CENTURY GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES

Visegrád Cooperation

State. In 2012, the American President was heavily criticised for his diplomatic attempts to resolve the civil war in Syria, urging him to act much more decisively with the involvement of military powers, and to not allow the implementation of any Russian proposal in the resolution of the Syrian problem. The American-Russian relationship deteriorated partly thanks to their different views about the Syrian situation and reached an absolute nadir after the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by Russia in 2014. According to an increasing number of international analysts, a USA that refuses any new military intervention and becomes increasingly introverted gives the impression of a weakening state, gradually losing its global authority to the rest of the world. These days, it is also a question whether the external economic component of “Smart Power” can be used at all in the current global political situation.

markets) are, in fact, “held together” by only one thing: the questioning and rejection of the USA’s dominant global power. Indeed, in all the countries where American power influence has weakened, the Russians and/or Chinese have begun to build up their interests. Thus, “power vacuums” are developing in countries that do not yet belong to any specific scope of interests or powers, while security risks grow enormously in relation to such territories. Good examples of this include the unresolved Iraqi situation after the withdrawal of American troops and the still open Syrian problem. Consequently, an increasing area of the buffer zone between the two countries fell under the control of the extremist Islamic State. That is the main reason for the huge wave of refugees hitting Europe – or, more specifically, the completely unresolved Afghan, Iraqi and Syrian problems, as well as the strengthening of Islamic terrorism.

The American exercise of power by using diplomatic channels and cooperation led to a contrary result. The role of the USA in global policy has weakened, and American power has reduced drastically in certain regions of the world. As a result, the non-AngloSaxon world (including especially the large emerging

With “Smart Power,” the role of the US as a global power has reduced. The two large emerging markets, Russia and China, have embarked in a determined “Hard Power” geopolitical direction. Obviously, orthodox geopolitical strategies are experiencing a renaissance.

Another fact pointing in the same direction is that, according to the data of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, in 2014 the US had only a 34% share in the total expenditure on arms (compared to more than 50% at the beginning of the new millennium). Extensive Chinese and Russian armament is also clearly evident in the figures. The second largest armament expenditure occurs in China (12% of the global figure), followed by Russia in third place (5% of the global figure). Between 2009 and 2014, USA armament expenditure fell from USD 701 billion to USD 610 billion. In the same period, Chinese armament expenditure grew from USD 129 billion to USD 216 billion. The situation is similar in Russia, where armament expenditure of USD 65 billion in 2009 grew to USD 85 billion by 2014. To Hungary, which is a member of both NATO and the EU, the most important issue is where Europe and, specifically, the Eastern and Central European region spend, in relation to current American geopolitical strategies. The main external policy efforts of Barack Obama during his first presidential term, between 2009 and 2013, were always heavily criticised by European states, claiming that the US did not pay as much attention to Europe as it should have. In November 2009, the American President did not attend the celebrations dedicated to the 20th anniversary of the removal of the Berlin Wall, despite being invited by the German Chancellor, which meant that “Barack Obama does not understand Europe,” as newspapers stated then. According to the views of leading European politicians, during Obama’s first presidential term, the US under-appreciated Atlantic relations, and the European continent was pushed more and more into the background in relation to American geopolitical strategies. US interest in Europe increased, geopolitically, after the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia in 2014. That is also clear from the fact that Barack Obama paid his first official visit to the European Union in Brussels on March 26, 2014 (for the first time during the six years of his Presidency, since 2009), confirming the EuroAtlantic alliance, which was seriously undermined by the 2013 spy scandal. During that visit, both the US and the EU confirmed the resumption of negotiations on the establishment of an Atlantic free-trade zone. However, the

signature of the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) has not yet taken place. There are significant discussions among the EU Member States as to whether the agreement would be advantageous for the European continent. According to the views of the European Commission, the TTIP could give a significant boost to the economic competitiveness of the European countries, and a new Atlantic free-trade zone could also increase turnover in European markets. However, opponents think that the agreement would only favour American companies. Therefore, it is unlikely that the TTIP will be signed in the near future.

It is especially unlikely in the current situation, when the EU needs to enact a common European response to handle the migration crisis as soon as possible. However, the issue of the EU’s future is unavoidable in light of the re-interpretation of the Euro-Atlantic power zone in the 21st century. In order to enable the EU to overcome the situation described by Henry Kissinger as being a “giant in the global economy, yet a dwarf in global politics,” theoretically, the EU has only one option: to create a strong federal European Union (i.e., a strong political union). Is it a reasonable objective, though? According to the official position of the EU institutions, yes. In fact, EU institutions are stronger than EU pessimists think. Jean-Claude Juncker, the new President of the European Commission, who took office on November 1, 2014, also defines the renewal of the EU and the strengthening of its institutions as main objectives. Nonetheless, according to unofficial opinions, the idea of a federal European Union is unrealistic. Like the Hungarian government, other EU Member States also believe that the future of the EU lies in strong national states. Another argument for this opinion is that the EU has been unable to come up with a common response to the migration crisis that broke out last summer, despite the fact that everybody understands that this unprecedented wave of migration can only be handled at a common European Union level. Consequently, a number of analysts project the development of a new German-Russian axis. In other words, will the Franco-German Europe be followed by a new Russo-German Europe? Geopolitically, this opinion is extremely important, because the Central and Eastern Europe region is situated between

Honolulu airport with American military plane 62

21 ST CENTURY GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES

Germany and Russia. Hence, its presence and future will be fundamentally affected by the development of the economic and political relations between Germany and Russia.

According to Ronald D. Asmus, a fundamentally new policy must be applied, because the trans-Atlantic expansion policy of the first decade of the new millennium had to be fundamentally reformed.

Coming back to US-European policy, Eastern and Central European countries’ disappointment in Barack Obama’s foreign policy during his first presidential term was greater than in leading European countries. Not long after Barack Obama’s visit to Moscow, in July 2009, several Eastern and Central European politicians, most of whom had previously held high positions, sent an open letter to the American President requesting he not to forget the strate-

Ronald D. Asmus closed his study, published at the beginning of 2008, with two scenarios. According to the first scenario, the new American presidential administration taking office in January 2009 will rebuild its relations with the countries of the region and both NATO and the EU will continue increasing the number of their members. As a result, by 2012 and 2014 respectively, the US and the EU could re-shape the geopolitical map of Europe and Eurasia approxi-

gic interests of the Central and Eastern Europe region during his discussions with Russia.

mately ten years after the second round of NATO expansion and the largest Eastern enlargement of the EU. The second scenario projects stagnation, in which the leading countries of the Atlantic power zone (primarily the US) will be passive toward the countries of the region. In fact, according to the projections, the EU and the USA would not assume any confrontation with Russia and would even “leave alone” certain states of the region, in order to preserve “good relations” with Russia.

According to the authors of that open letter, the greatest risk is that Russian influence is growing in the region again. According to the wording used in the letter, “It will lead to the de facto neutralisation of the region.” Ronald D. Asmus, Director of the German Marshall Fund Trans-Atlantic Centre, published a study in the January-February 2008 issue of Foreign Affairs under the title “Europe’s Eastern Promise – Reconsideration of the NATO and EU Enlargement”. The author had an excellent understanding of the topic, because he worked as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State of Foreign Affairs for the US between 1997 and 2000, primarily focusing on NATO and trans-Atlantic relations. He also contributed a great deal to the process whereby Hungary joined NATO in 1999. In the study, the author analyses the two main geopolitical zones of Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Europe, the North-South axis from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea and the Southeast-Southwest axis of the countries situated on the border between Europe and Asia (i.e., the Balkan Peninsula to the Black Sea). The countries of the NorthSouth axis joined the military organisation in the first round of NATO expansion (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland in 1999) followed by the second round (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia in 2002), and then the European Union in 2004 and 2007. Therefore, they clearly became members of the trans-Atlantic power zone both politically and economically. What expansion policy should NATO and the EU apply to the Southeast-Southwest axis of the countries between the Balkan Peninsula and the Black Sea?

As the author writes, if the only thing that happens by 2012 is that Croatia (and probably Albania) joins NATO, while only Croatia joins the European Union, a geopolitical stalemate situation will emerge and “... the next generation will have to pay a great price for that passivity.” In 2016, we can clearly state that, unfortunately, Ronald D. Asmus’ second scenario of came true. Between 2008 and 2012 the only events of note were Croatia’s and Albania’s accession to NATO in April 2009 and Croatia’s accession to the EU in July 2013. By now, the “geopolitical stalemate situation” envisaged by Asmus has deteriorated even further, because open confrontation has emerged between the Euro-Atlantic power zone and Russia. The greatest issue of the future is whether the East and Southeast European countries and the states of the Caucasian region will join the Euro-Atlantic or the Russian sphere of interests – i.e., the degree to which they will sway between the spheres of interest of the two Great Powers. Following the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by Russia, the role of Central and Eastern European countries as a zone of confrontation between the

“Over the last 20 years our Western partners have continuously tried to convince us of their good intentions and mainly of their aim of building strategic cooperation with Russia. In fact they did nothing else but expanded NATO, whereby they brought their military and political interests closer to our borders. When we quite rightly asked, “How is this is was possible, and why? and why were we not consulted?”, the response has always been the same: “It is none of your business.” Anybody who still insists on such treatment toward our country will clearly disapprove of Russia’s independent policy. The Ukrainian events also proved it, as well as the fact that, in the future, it will not be possible to build any relationship with Russia based on such dual standards.” Extract from a speech by V. Putin at the conference organised for Russian ambassadors and permanent representatives on July 1, 2014.

Vladimir Putin President of Russia 65

West (NATO and EU) and East (Russia and the Eurasian Economic Community) has increased a great deal. It is owing to the increasing geopolitical role in the region of the West (primarily the USA) that the Eastern enlargement of the EU has taken a somewhat new direction, compared to the “stalemate situation” of the previous years when the EU signed Association Agreements with the Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia in the summer of 2014. All this also means that the EU must fundamentally reconsider its Eastern enlargement policy and find a new basis for the (so far rather weak) Eastern partnership programme as well.

analysts, accession is not timed well, because NATO should strive toward cooperation with Russia, since without such, there is no chance for international cooperation in the fight against the Islamic State and in resolving the Syrian problem. Looking at the map, though, Montenegro’s NATO membership is quite justified, because it would mean that all countries with an Adriatic coast are NATO members (i.e., Russia would have no option whatsoever of establishing an exit route on the Adriatic coast).

It is no accident that the possibility of Turkey joining the EU has emerged again in relation to the migrant crisis. The importance of the region as the Eastern border zone has also clearly strengthened in the eyes of NATO. In June 2014 Barack Obama paid a visit to Warsaw (before the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the landing of American and British troops in Normandy), and he practically announced the new NATO strategy for Eastern Europe. According to that strategy, the number of NATO (primarily American) ground troops will be increased in Poland, and the activity of the NATO maritime fleet will also be extended on the Baltic and Black Seas. The Black Sea is of major importance, because it is the sea through which Russia can gain access to the warm waters. Estonia, in terms of the Baltic Sea (through the control of the Bay of Finland), and Romania, in terms of the Black Sea, became the main bases of NATO naval forces. Any further NATO expansion has also become a fundamental geopolitical issue after the accession of Croatia and Albania in 2009. In September 2014 the NATO summit was held in Wales, where, according to preliminary expectations, the Ukraine was not granted NATO candidate status, because Angela Merkel confirmed that she did not support the acceptance of Ukraine into NATO, and the other allies supported her. There is no doubt that if the Eastern border of NATO were extended to its direct neighbourhood, Russia would interpret it “as an open declaration of war” and a security threat. December 2015 brought a new twist in relation to any further NATO expansion, because Montenegro, which has an Adriatic coast, was invited to join NATO. However, opinions about that invitation varied a great deal. On the one hand, there was no referendum on NATO accession in Montenegro. According to unofficial surveys, almost 50 per cent of the population does not support NATO membership. On the other hand, according to international

island of Krk. The other major plan, shared with the EU, is to supply the region with natural gas from Azerbaijan (with the construction of a gas pipeline from Azerbaijan through Turkey, Greece and Albania, with Montenegro as the gate on the Balkan Peninsula). After construction of the Gazprom South Stream pipeline ceased, and the plan for the Turkish Stream pipeline was fully dismissed (as a result of the Russian warplane shot down by Turkish military forces in November 2015), the geopolitical situation of the Eastern Europe region is at least as important militarily as energy is politically.

One of the significant US plans is to transfer liquid natural gas to Croatia through the Port of Rijeka and the liquid natural gas terminal constructed on the

THE EURASIAN SUPERCONTINENT – RUSSIA AND CHINA The geopolitical situation of Russia, which is the country that has the largest territory in the world, is rather favourable for becoming a mainland power – or, as it is geopolitically known, a “land power”. The major geopolitical area in this is the Eurasian power zone, because Russia is clearly a country belonging to both the European and the Asian continents. This is also indicated in an article written by V. Putin in the November 2011 issue of Izvestia, in which he outlined the plan for a new Eurasian Union, which would stretch from Lisbon to Vladivostok. V. Putin also named it “greater Europe,” where Russia could play a role determined by its geographic space. In other words, it could function as a bridge between Europe and Asia. This Russian-Eurasian geopolitical space is so predominantly important that V. Putin also made reference to it in his Presidential inaugural speech on May 7, 2012, when he said the following: “Our main objective is to expand our territory from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean, which will enable us to become the leader and centre of gravity for all of Eurasia.”

The main author and one of the leading personalities of the new Russian geopolitics is Aleksandr Dugin, who organised his own party and “Eurasia” political movement in 2002. In other words, the political expression of Eurasia, used by Mackinder, has become an absolute “keyword” in current Russian geopolitics. Since the notion of Eurasia has plenty of history in Russia, Dugin called the new Russian geopolitical trend neo-Eurasianism. This neo-Euroasianism is contrary to Atlanticism, and the main Russian geopolitical objective is to create a multi-polar world. By now, the concept of Eurasianism has also been confirmed institutionally as the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), has been formed by Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia. It began its operation on January 1, 2015. In August 2015, Kyrgyzstan joined Eurasian integration as the fifth member. Nevertheless, geopolitically, the main issue of creating a new Eurasian power zone is whether Russia will be able to find new allies in the future; and within that question lies the key issue of how the Russian-Chinese relationship will develop in the near future. One of the most significant events in that process was a visit to China by V. Putin in May 2014, when the gas agreement, also known as the “gas deal of the century,” was signed between the Russian Gazprom

and the Chinese CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) after more than a decade of negotiations. Under the agreement Gazprom committed to the transport of 38 billion cubic metres of gas to China over 30 years. Another sign reflecting the strengthening of the Russian-Chinese relationship is that the Russian and the Chinese central banks made an announcement at the end of 2014 about a common agreement drafted by them for conducting foreign exchange transactions in their own currencies by eliminating the American dollar. At present, 75% of the trade between Russia and China is settled in USD. Does this mean the end of the USD hegemony? This issue is central to the development of a new multi-polar global economy. There is no doubt that the meeting in Moscow of the Russian and Chinese Presidents in May 2015 was the most important event in terms of cementing Russia’s Eurasian power and strengthening the geopolitical position of the new Eurasian supercontinent. On May 8, 2015, (one day prior to the Russian military parade dedicated to the 70th anniversary of the victory ending World War II), Russia and China officially signed an agreement on the cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Community and the New Silk 67 Battleships in Kronstadt, Baltic Sea

Road Economic Belt. This agreement is much more than just a trade agreement, because it involves large common investments and huge infrastructure development plans. In terms of the response to the fundamental geopolitical question of whose ally China is in the competition between the US and Russia, according to the current status of the geopolitical “chess game,” China is currently Russia’s ally. While Russia could become the leading mainland power in the Eurasian zone, its “pea Power” status is rather doubtful, geopolitically speaking. Although the Russian coastline is 37,653 km-long (the mainland borders stretch along 22,407 km), most of that represents the coast of cold water seas, as Russia is bordered by the Arctic Ocean in the North and the Pacific Ocean in the East Apart from the one exception of the Port of Murmansk, which never freezes owing to the Gulf Stream, the ports of the northern and eastern coastline are covered by ice most of the year. In his book The Foundations of Geopolitics, Aleksandr Dugin describes this situation as land borders surrounding Russia from the South as if an “anaconda” were preventing the country from establishing an exit point towards the warm seas. In line with the geographic specificities, 1/3 of the Russian naval force is the Russian Northern Fleet, which is based in Severomorsk, next to Murmansk. The base of the Russian Pacific Fleet is in the largest and most southern town of the Russian Far East, Vladivostok, but the ports of Vladivostok and the neighbouring Nahodka are generally covered by ice from October to March. Russia has an exit to the Baltic Sea with the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet, which is based in the Port of Baltiysk on the territory of Kaliningrad. Geostrategically, the Baltic Sea is becoming increasingly important for Russia due to gradually strengthening Russian-German relations. This most important component of this was the opening of the Gazprom North Stream pipeline in November 2011, which carries natural gas directly to Germany under the Baltic Sea, avoiding the Ukraine. The Russian Caspian Sea Fleet is relatively small and is based in Astrakhan, the largest town in the Volga estuary. Yet, as the Caspian Sea is only a sea by name (it is the largest lake in the world, with no sea exit), the purpose of the Russian fleet based there is not to create “sea power,” but to ensure the balance of power in the area and between the countries of the Caspian

Sea. They have to be especially active in light of one of the greatest risk factors to Russian national security, Chechnya. In October 2015, the Caspian Sea Fleet assumed another important role, because air attacks against the Islamic State (as well as the Syrian uprising, although this is subject to debate) were also launched from Russian battleships based there. The Sevastopol base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet on the Crimean Peninsula is a key aspect of Russian sea power status and therefore Russian geopolitics. The port of Sevastopol, with its deep water, protected bay and no ice at all throughout the year, is Russia’s exit point towards warm water seas. This port is a key strategic and geographic point for Russia, without which Russia would not have any other means of reaching the Mediterranean Sea. The annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by Russia fundamentally stemmed from Russia’s fear – namely, that as the Ukraine was growing closer to the EU and NATO, Russia could lose its port of Sevastopol. In fact, this Russian fear also had a historic basis, because 160 years ago during the Crimean War, British, French and Turkish forces jointly defeated Czarist Russia and prevented the extension of Russian influence to the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, the two straights connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. At present, all Russia’s maritime global power actions (e.g., supplies to Syria) are launched from the Port of Sevastopol. The potential NATO membership of the Ukraine would clearly mean the dominance of NATO powers in the Black Sea region, because Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey are NATO members. It is no accident, therefore, that one of the main objectives of Russian geopolitics is to build strong Russian-Turkish relations. Until 2014, Turkey seemed to be Russia’s key ally. One of the cornerstones of that relationship is the transportation of natural gas to Ankara through the Black Sea on the Gazprom Blue Stream pipeline. After Gazprom halted construction of the South Stream pipeline in 2014, the two countries signed an agreement on the construction of a new Turkish Stream pipeline. In November 2015, Turkish military forces shot down one of the Russian air force’s military aircraft, claiming that the plane flew from Syria and violated the country’s air space. As a result, relations between the two countries reached a low point. Under the current situation, the Turkish Stream pipeline will not be constructed, and NATO is in a winning position, primarily in the Black Sea geopolitical “game”.

21 ST CENTURY GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES

Great Wall of China

CHINA: ONE BELT, ONE ROAD What role can China play on the 21st century’s geopolitical “chess board”? These days, China is one of the leading powers in the world and has the second largest national economy after the USA (according to the current key figures based on GNI). However, from the geopolitical point of view, the question is how the present and future of the Eurasian supercontinent will be shaped, depending on the reconciliation of economic and political interests between China and Russia. Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote the following about the same issue in 1997, in his book The Great Chess Board: “Perhaps a great coalition of China, Russia and perhaps Iran, and an “anti-hegemony” alliance held together not by ideology, but by mutuallystrengthening violations would be the most dangerous scenario.” Brzezinski’s geopolitical fear is clearly justified on account of the re-emergence of the Chinese Heavenly Empire, the Russian Empire/Soviet Union and the one-time Persian Empire. Any alliance formed between them would clearly beat the US hegemony in global politics. Brzezinski already made several references to the historic background of Chinese

imperial efforts in his 1997book published, specifically highlighting how China was expanding its zone of influence in South- and East Asia. The “Central Empire” (this is what the Chinese name Chung Kuo means), which deems itself the centre of the world, and not in name alone, may be considered a regional land power which may have aspirations to become a global power in the future. Almost twenty years after the publication of Brzezinski’s book, the world is shocked by the unbroken growth of the Chinese economy and is justified in asking whether the Ching Dynasty’s 18th-century Heavenly Empire will reemerge. There is no question that, as a result of its significant progress in its role within the global economy, China has become a global power in 2016. Almost all international analysts agree that, politically, China cannot yet be considered a great power. In fact, China’s every global political effort and geopolitical strategy is completely motivated by its realistic economic interests and geo-economic strategies. Nevertheless, projections define China as a regional, mainly land power in the past, but one becoming a naval power in the near future, primarily on the basis of the extensive development of the Chinese military

navy. The times when China protected only its coastal waters are well and truly over. At present it considers the South China Sea its own territorial water and thereby engages in territorial disputes with other states of the Southeast Asia region. These days, we can state that China has already established its land borders and, with the development of its navy, it is likely to become a naval power in the near future. China’s grandiose plan, the establishment of the New Silk Road Economic Belt, continues to be the most important aspect of the establishment of Eurasia as a 21st-century supercontinent. Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, announced a trade and infrastructure development programme to

political sphere of interest. From the perspective of the United States, the main question is how far this Chinese sphere of interest can stretch, especially without endangering America’s economic and political influence. As Brzezinski said: “It is exactly here, on the most important playground of this Earth, that a country may emerge sometime which will be able to compete with America.”

connect East and Central Asia with Europe, thereby actually establishing the 21st century’s Eurasia in Kazakhstan (Eurasia’s “heartland”) in 2013. On land, the New Silk Road Economic Belt is planned to stretch from the Chinese city of Xian across Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Iran, then to enter Turkey and Europe from North Iraq, through the Belgrade – Budapest line, to the main destination, the port of Rotterdam.

The notion of so-called buffer states was introduced in the orthodox geopolitical school of the 19th century. These countries interest several global powers. Thanks to Hungary’s membership in NATO and the EU, the country is not a buffer state in a geopolitical sense, because it belongs to the Euro-Atlantic sphere of power, which results in stability and predictability, as well as stringent regulations.

But thanks to strengthening Russian-Chinese cooperation, another land route is appearing, spanning Russia (from Vladivostok to Moscow) and crossing Poland to arrive in Germany. In addition to these, another Silk Road, across the seas, is planned to be established in order to strengthen China’s maritime power. Starting from Chinese ports at the South Chinese Sea, this naval route would run across the Strait of Malacca, the Indian Ocean, the Arab Sea, the Red Sea, the Suez Canal and the Adriatic Sea, probably to end in Venice as the main European gateway. But geopolitically, this would mean the creation of a new Eurasian continent in which China’s economic relations would be strengthened along with Southeast Asian countries and India. The funds supporting Asia’s huge infrastructural development would come primarily from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), an organisation established upon China’s initiative. (Such development spanning an entire continent has not been seen in the global economic era since the end of WWII.) By the end of 2015, 57 countries had joined the group of states that established AIIB. The investment bank started to operate in January 2016. Consequently, the global extension of China’s economic sphere of interest is an obvious fact. What remains a question is whether this also involves a

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE – THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREATER WEST, OR THE WESTERN VANGUARD OF THE EURASIAN SUPERCONTINENT?

However, the Ukrainian crisis that began at the end of 2013, the occupation of the Crimean in March 2014, and the ongoing fighting in Southeast Ukraine have once again activated Central and East Europe’s role as a buffer zone. The military significance of the countries along this axis, which spans from the Baltic region to the Black Sea, is again increasing, because it constitutes the eastern border of NATO and the EU. As referred to above in the section about the future NATO accession of Montenegro, an exit to the Adriatic Sea would be crucial to the creation of Russia’s Central and East European sphere of interest, as it would give Russia one more exit to warm seas, in addition to the Black Sea. That is why the question of whether the American government can prevent the sale of MOL’s 49% ownership to Russia’s Gazprom is one of the main issues in American-Hungarian relations, which have deteriorated recently. As the state of Hungary has 24.7% ownership in MOL, the potential sale is geopolitically crucial, because it would give Russia another strategic naval vanguard. Settling the relationship of the Atlantic sphere of power and Russia will be one of the main issues in the near future. Because this settlement process will primarily be effected through Central and Eastern European countries, the future geopolitical position of the region will

21 ST CENTURY GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES

basically depend on the ability of Atlantic powers to change their approach to Russia and place Russian relations in the Euro-Atlantic sphere of power on entirely new foundations. Or will the containment policy announced by George Kennan (who devised the idea of the cold war in America in 1947) remain the basis of the USA’s policy towards Russia?

“This part of Europe should not be peripheral, but a real hub between West and East, with an equal weight of opinion in Europe.” Quote from Polish Prime Minister Witold Waszczykowski’s speech, delivered at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade on February 4, 2016

Naturally, other related geopolitical questions await answers, because they could fundamentally change the role of several regions as a geopolitical buffer zones. In my judgement, the main issues are the fol-

a politically independent belt? Apart from all these

lowing:

questions, it is clear in 2016 that.

• Will the foreign policy of the next American president’s administration change regarding the Central and Eastern European region?

• Hungary's approach to Russia should be fundamentally changed. For the West, Russia is the “No. 1 enemy”, and “Russophobia” is a basic characteristic of Western thinking. It is very important for Hungary to judge Russia realistically and get to know today’s Russia better, regardless of the current geopolitical situation. Consequently, new and entirely pragmatic foreign policy and economic relations need to be established between Hungary (and the Central and East European region) and Russia, because that country’s geographic proximity is a geopolitical fact for the region.

• Will a federal European Union emerge in some form? Will the EU be able to provide a unified answer to the current migration crisis? Or does opposition amongst the EU’s nation states prefigure a “RussoGerman” Europe? • Will the EU be expanded further eastward? When will Southern Slavic states – and especially Serbia, a country of key geopolitical importance – join the EU? • Will the V4 countries actually cooperate economically (and politically)? Will the countries along the north-south geopolitical axis from the Baltic to the Black Sea be able to act in unison? Will the settlement plan devised by Polish Marshal Jozef Pilsudski after World War I (the “Latin Intermarium”) be realised in some form in the near future, uniting Central and East European countries and creating

• The almost fixed stereotype of “revering the West and looking down on the East” needs to be fundamentally changed. • Instead of general and fundamentally flawed simplifications, a new geopolitical approach needs to be formulated. We must accept the multi-polar nature of the world and especially Hungary’s role as a “bridge state” between the West and the East.

The Father of Stratfor:

GEORGE FRIEDMAN

FROM THE CATHEDRA TO THE GEOPOLITICAL NEGOTIATING TABLE Author: Anton Bendarzsevszkij

George Friedman, of Hungarian origins, is one of the world’s most renowned geopolitical experts. His books have regularly topped bestseller lists in recent years. In his geopolitical analyses, he looks up to 100 years into the future, projecting the rise and fall of states. Friedman’s knowledge is based on Stratfor, an intelligence company that he established in 1996. With a staff of over 130, an extensive and wellworking information network, as well as more than two million subscribers, Stratfor has become the world’s largest private intelligence business. However, George Friedman has not stopped with the creation of the Stratfor: he left the company he created, and at the end of 2015 established a new intelligence based agency: Geopolitical Futures, which provides analytical geopolitical forecasts. Born in 1949 in Hungary, George Friedman was less than one year old when he and his parents, captive behind the Iron Curtain, under adventurous circumstances, escaped the country. They finally settled in the United States. Friedman went to school in New York and obtained a PhD from Cornell University. Then, he was a lecturer of political science at Dickinson College for nearly 20 years. His main fields of interest and research were US foreign policy, global geopolitics, international relations, modern and historical warfare, and geopolitical projections. He became famous around the world as an expert in international relations and as a geopolitical author after establishing Stratfor in 1996. He managed his company as chairman and also led the global intelligence department. STRATFOR: AN EMPIRE BUILT OF INFORMATION The power of geopolitical consultancy companies is best exhibited in times of crisis. Stratfor had risen to the position of a major global news agency when bombs were exploding in Kosovo, and its reputation peaked when the World Trade Centre fell. Strategic Forecasting Inc., established in 1996, is now one of the world’s leading private intelligence, analysis and research institutes.

The company, established by George Friedman, had gone mostly unnoticed for a while, but had a breakthrough in 1999 at the time of the bombing of Kosovo. That is when they decided to set up the “Kosovo Crisis Centre,” an entity that poured out analyses of the situation in the war-stricken region for weeks. The information was initially forwarded by e-mail; however, hunger for news on Kosovo necessitated a public online interface. Those public documents were snapped up by news media, making Stratfor a well-known brand. According to Friedman, staff slept in Stratfor’s office for six weeks at the time of the Kosovo crisis, so they could process and publish the information as it came in. As a result, the number of subscribers grew by several thousand over a few weeks. It turned out that intelligence is not a prerogative of governments, but can also be a rather profitable business. THE 9/11 TRAGEDY AND “DISASTER TOURISM FOR INFORMATION” While Kosovo was the first step toward fame, Stratfor’s real breakthrough came, paradoxically, at the time of 9/11, a grave tragedy for the United States. They used sources close to the government in their analyses, and all of their documents were publicly available free of charge for a period after the catastrophe.

New York

ASSOCIATE CO-AUTHOR FOR LIFE – MEREDITH Friedman is married with four children, two of whom serve in the US Army. His wife, Meredith Friedman, writes under the pen name Lebard (which she has used in several books co-authored with her husband). For a long time, Meredith also held an important position in Stratfor, working as the company’s deputy chair in charge of international relations and communication. George Friedman, a conservative Republican, lives in Austin, Texas with his family. That is where the headquarters of Stratfor is located. Russian sources consider him clearly “antiSoviet” and “anti-Communist,” which determines his view of today’s Russia. This is obviously related to his family’s history. Friedman, a globally reputed author, likes to appear in the media and is a regular guest at conferences on geopolitics and security policy.

FROM THE CATHEDRA TO THE GEOPOLITICAL NEGOTIATING TABLE

Stratfor’s products have entered the international media and have become a prime information source for Bloomberg, AP, Reuters, BBC, The New York Times and mainstream media. Stratfor has built up a large corporate basis. Even though the names and data of its customers are confidential, according to some reports they include the largest American corporations, as well as numerous government institutions. In 2013 Stratfor had 300,000 paying customers, with more than two million people receiving its free newsletters. The number of Stratfor staff has rocketed in the past decade: after the breakthrough in 2001 the number of its analysts was multiplied. In 2004 the company had 70 employees. After less than a decade, in 2012, the number had almost doubled, reaching 130. According to the company, their analysts speak 29 languages in all. Several Stratfor authors are successful writers. Friedman himself wrote numerous bestsellers, and Kamarn Bokhari’s name has also repeatedly appeared on sales charts. Most senior officials are experts in the Middle East, probably in response to America’s needs and interest in the wake of 2001. In the past two years, however, a shift towards Russia has begun. THE KING IS NAKED On 27 February 2012, Stratfor’s servers were hacked by the Anonymous group, and 5.5 million internal email messages from the period between 2004 and December 2011 were disclosed. The information was published on the WikiLeaks page, where anyone could read the confidential mail of the world’s largest private intelligence agency. The press jumped at the opportunity, and a multitude of articles were written in the first half of 2012 based on the leaked database documents (which described, among other matters, the above-mentioned internal structure of Stratfor, and the practice of collecting information on civil activists). The data leakage alone harmed Stratfor’s prestige considerably, because the company is an intelligence business working with sensitive information. Yet, it was the content of the letters that dealt the final blow. For example, Stratfor

STRATFOR’s main activity involves the analysis and projection of economic and geopolitical developments, but they also provide specific services to customers: • newsletters • analyses • tailor-made analyses • premium customers’ questions answered round the clock • monthly phone conferences with George Friedman • corporate training • consultancy • speech writing turned out to have cooperated with Goldman Sachs, which bordered on insider trading. As part of this cooperation, Stratfor provided intelligence for transactions in the global market through a third company (Strat-Cap). Shea Morenz, former Goldman Sachs director, went on to work as Stratfor’s CEO, and he still holds that position. The leaked e-mail messages also show that the company knew about a probable secret pact between Russia and Israel in 2008. According to leaked correspondence, Israel gave Russia codes to remote-controlled aerial vehicles (the kind previously purchased from Israel by Georgia), while the Russians returned codes to TOR-M1 missile protection systems sold by Russia to Iran. This deal might have had a direct negative impact on Georgian defence capabilities during the war with Russia in August 2008. FIVE MILLION TELLING MAILS Where does Stratford’s information come from? From secret informers or public intelligence sources? According to the company’s official position, two sources are used to obtain information – firstly, from carefully chosen foreign staff; and secondly, from public data available to anyone, such as news agencies, internet portals and forums, aa well as public studies by governments.

BURTON FRIEDMAN

CLEAR ANALYSIS

SHEA MORENZ

IDENTIFICATION OF CONFLICTING STATEMENTS WATCH OFFICERS

IDENTIFICATION OF ASSUMPTIONS

DISCUSSION OF AXIOMS ANALYSTS IDENTIFICATION OF SYSTEM PARADIGMS

SOURCES

IDENTIFICATION OF PROPAGANDA

STRATFOR’S STRUCTURE

INFORMATION ANALYSIS PROCESS

PYRAMID-LIKE CORPORATE STRUCTURE Sources providing information are at the base of the pyramid. Stratfor assigns various categories to its sources based on the value and reliability of the information they provide. The best rating is A, and the worst is F. The ratings are further divided into subcategories by region, and each source is given a numerical rating by region. According to the leaked information, Stratfor pays its sources highly, depending on their value. The amount may reach USD 5-6 thousand a month. Speed is a basic expectation in this pyramid-like structure. Interestingly enough, Stratfor also uses its own subscriber base to recruit new sources, contacting people who seem well-positioned and valuable based on user profiles.

Analysts constitute the next level of the pyramid. They keep in touch with information providers directly and also use various public and web-based sources. They collect and categorise the available information by reliability, timeliness, accessibility, uniqueness and other parameters. Above the analysts, the next stage is “watch officers”. They select some of the information collected and forwarded to them by the analysts, comparing the data to publicly available information. One of the goals is to prevent the disclosure of expressly confidential information. Until recently the organisation was led by George Friedman and his deputy Fred Burton. Neither George Friedman nor Fred Burton are in the top management of the Stratfor any longer.

FROM THE CATHEDRA TO THE GEOPOLITICAL NEGOTIATING TABLE

Still, in February 2012, WikiLeaks disclosed over five million of Strafor’s internal e-mail messages, which qualify the company’s statements. For example, the leaked e-mails show that public sources are much less important to Stratfor than its network of informers. In fact, this latter source is vital to the company’s operation.

Western media misunderstands or fails to understand non-Western communities. INTELLIGENCE AT HOME, THE SHADOW CIA

Stratfor is most heavily criticised because its analyses are claimed to be very biased in certain matters. Critics state that the company’s work is character-

Other documents leaked in 2012 indicate that Stratfor has performed major research for governmental and corporate customers upon opposition parties and NGOs such as the Occupy movement in the United States. Interesting information has surfaced about the government having used anti-terrorist laws against protesters. Further inconvenient facts have emerged. Some opposition activists have also cooperated with Stratfor, ac-

ised by a “pride in the global power of the USA,” which significantly distorts reality. Unconditional acceptance of Israeli sources is another cause for criticism. In many regions, Stratfor’s primary sources prefer American and Israeli intelligence, rather than relying on local information. This practice is most heavily criticised by Arab media, who cite it as a good example of why Strafor and other

tively supplying information about other opposition/NGO leaders. Remarkably, the government and other Stratfor customers have used the company in applying a “divide and rule” strategy. Activists and opposition leaders were grouped into four categories: radicals, idealists, realists and opportunists. Based on this classification, Stratfor tried to influence them.

HOW RELIABLE IS STRATFOR’S INTELLIGENCE?

RECRUIT ALLOWANCE, HALF-MEASURES

OPPORTUNISTS

MONEY POSITION

Mainly driven by their own interests. Automatically support people whom they can make the most gains from. Easily influenced.

OPPORTUNITY

Can be convinced that systematic change is not possible and need to compromise when possible.

DISCREDITING

Consider the system corrupt. Hard to influence. Only isolation and discrediting, even with false rumors, can work against them.

DISCREDITING

RADICALS

REALISTS

FACTS, COUNTERARGUMENTS

IDEALISTS Follow remote theories. Must be convinced they work with false facts, thus can be pulled into the realist camp.

FRIEDMAN TRILOGY GEORGE FRIEDMAN George Friedman is a geopolitical expert of Hungarian origin, best-selling author, as well as founder and former chairman of Stratfor, the world’s No. 1 private intelligence company. Three of his much-quoted books, all about geostrategic projections (for the next decade, the next century, and the third about so-called flashpoints) will shortly be published in Hungarian, courtesy of the Pallas Athene Geopolitical Foundation.

The Next Decade Can the American empire be reconciled with the notion of a republic? And which one will be needed in the world of chaotic Islam, an expanding Russia, a bleak Europe and a mighty China?

The Next 100 Years History books are written “backwards,” but if history repeats itself, why can't they be written forwards? Friedman draws up one scenario for the next hundred years with scientific thoroughness, while using tools of fiction.

Flashpoints Europe is ready to combust. Friedman’s book is an exciting lesson in history and a frightening foreshadowing of social and political cracks in the old continent, not to mention their effects on the rest of the world.

fotรณ: Hajnal Andrรกs

GEORGE FRIEDMAN: UNDERSTANDING WHAT WAR MEANS IN EUROPE George Friedman gave a presentation in Budapest upon PAGEO’s invitation

“Seeing these words in Hungarian always gets to my heart” - this is how George Friedman began his book premiere in Budapest, where his trilogy was published in Hungarian with PAGEO’s support. “Even when in America, this has always been home in our heart. When I was a small kid, I saw Russian tanks in Akácfa Street. We understood what war meant in Europe. When I speak to an American, I have to explain what it means to be a European who survived the 20th century. I do not need to explain the same to you. What I would like to talk about today is that what we experienced then might happen again.” WHAT DID EUROPEANS GIVE TO US? Europe controlled the world for five hundred years. It was both an awful and wonderful period. Until the Europeans arrived, the Mongolians had not known Japanese, Japanese had not known the Aztecs and Aztecs had not known the English. Europe created mankind with blood on their hands as mankind that knew themselves. Those people understood that there was only one mankind, irrespective how distorted or injured it was. Europe not only created mankind and conquered the world, it also wanted to conquer nature. I keep remembering 1990 and a concert hall where we were enjoying Mozart’s music and while winter was in its element outside it was cosy and warm inside, and in the end we took a comfortable train journey to our home 20 miles away. We forgive a lot of the culture, of which Mozart is a part. Something was still true for Europe at that time: it was never able to beat itself. Although it conquered nature and the world, it was in constant civil war with itself. The global power of the Spaniards, the Dutch, the French and the Brits failed and for five hundred years

mankind has been torn by civil wars. Nonetheless, nothing was as wonderful at that time as the European culture. If I look back to that period from the 21st century I feel envy. It was just 1914 when Norman Angell published a book under the title of The Great Illusion, for which the author was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize later. That English author categorically proved that war could not happen in Europe anymore. In his opinion, war would be ruled out by investments, trade and the interdependence stemming from the other correlations. He wrote this book in 1910 and of course he was mistaken because even though he was very smart, he did not understand that interdependence increased and not decreased the chance of a war. Madagascar was never in war with Brazil. They have no common problems, they do not have any contact or relations. However, France and Germany had three wars, because they had interdependence between them. Both parties were afraid that the other would abuse, or try to break the fragile relationship by taking control. Interdependence is referred to as the end of conflicts, but by now we have learned that 1914 marked the beginning of the most harmful thirty-one-year period of mankind.

Approximately 500 million people died between 1914 and 1945 for political reasons. I don’t mean only World War I and World War II, but also include the Russian civil war, the Spanish civil war, the great Ukrainian famine and a lot of other events. This figure is shocking. AMERICA IS AN EMPIRE, WHY IS EUROPE NOT ONE? ...the USA remained the only superpower... It did not know what to do with that power and did not even want it to a certain extent, but history does not really care about what people want. When World War II ended in 1945, Europe became an occupied territory.

“In 2008 the world changed in just seven weeks.” One part was occupied by the Soviets, and the other was taken by the Americans. The Soviets governed differently to the Americans, but no one should have any illusion: decisions about Europe were not made in Rome, Berlin or Paris but in Washington and Moscow. The issue of war and peace, and the core dilemma of sovereignty were not decided in the European cities. They were decided upon by the Russians in Moscow and the Americans in Washington. Luckily Europe remained peaceful because the Cold War was a conflict that completely froze into ice. Nobody could take any steps and nobody could move. In 1992 the Soviet Union collapsed, with two consequences. Firstly, the USA remained the only superpower. It stood out from the world as a great powerful empire. It did not know what to do with that power and did not even want it to a certain extent, but history does not really care about what people want. It is a fact that the US had that role. What is referred to as America’s century is not the twentieth century because America had only small power in its first half. In the second half it was engaged in a cold, yet bloody fight with the Soviets. Looking back we know that they won the battle, but I was there and often that victory did not give them pleasure. Secondly, Europe regained its independence and created an alliance, the European Union. The Treaty of Maastricht became reality then, as a mature solution to prevent further conflicts. It was based on

the assumption that economic integration will also entail political stability. That assumption contained logic and seemed to be true between 1992 and 2008. Then in 2008 the world changed in just seven weeks. On August 8, 2008 Russia attacked Georgia, or as the Russians look at it, Georgia attacked Russia. I do not know for sure. Russia attacked Georgia and announced its re-entry into history. The assumption which evolved at the end of the Cold War whereby Russia was no longer an aggressive actor in global politics, suddenly seemed false. Georgia’s occupation was not as much about Georgia, as about the Ukraine, where the orange revolution was taking place at that time. The Russians sent a message with it: America is not in a position to support Georgia, its ally. This is what the Americans’ guarantee was worth. We attacked America’s friend, and the Americans did nothing. All that happened at the beginning of August. It did not shock the world but it was a start of a great change. Something else happened at the same time: Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, which triggered the financial crisis. That turned out to be the greatest crisis in the history of the EU. The United States experienced three such crises since World War II: the crisis of municipality bonds, the crisis of the national debts of the Third World and the bankruptcy wave of the savings institutions. It was not an unknown experience to the Americans. However, the Europeans faced a financial crisis for the first time in their lives. First the banking crisis occurred because banks purchased derivative securities from America and they made them collapse. The Europeans always blame America for it, but it is still worth pointing out that after all, the Europeans bought the securities. But that is not what is important there. THE COLLAPSE – THE GERMAN AND THE GREEK VERSION While the USA tried to find a solution to the banking crisis, in Europe it turned into national bankruptcies because the European structure was fundamentally unreasonable. The world’s fourth largest economy pumps the heart of Europe, which currently exports 53% of the GDP. In other words, its economy is so large and effective that its own population can consume only half of it. It is forced to export the other half and, as we learned on China’s example in 2008, a great exporter is only as strong as its customers. Germany was interested in a special structure of the EU because it needed a free trade zone where half

â&#x20AC;&#x153;... the USA remained the only superpower. ... It did not know what to do with that power and did not even want it to a certain extent, but history does not really care about what people want.â&#x20AC;? 86

of its production could be distributed. It required two things: a zone for free trade, which was provided by the EU, and a currency, the value of which could be defined on the basis of Germany’s anti-inflation and export maximising interests. Thirdly, the Brussels regulations created an extremely complicated system based on 26 different fiscal systems, which made the operation of enterprises extremely difficult. There was no Facebook, Microsoft or Apple that could have challenged Siemens. It does not mean that there were no creative experts working for low wages on the peripheries of Europe; Hungarian programmers are famous for being cheap. The structural requirements of enterprises strongly limited the options. That led to a situation whereby the economic development of the peripheries was undermined by the things that were needed by Germany and the whole of Northern Europe. Thus, this region went into recession faster than Germany and soon a situation emerged where the fiscal revenues no longer financed the debts. The Germans now say that the Greeks borrowed too much money, to which the Greeks answer that Deutsche Bank persuaded us to take loans in 2009, 2010 and 2011, because they wanted to maintain demand in the peripheries. Each side has its own version about the events. What happened in concrete terms was that the unemployment rate reached 25-28%. Not only in Greece but also elsewhere, e.g., in Spain and in the south of Italy. Looking at Southern Italy, the figures are the same as during the American crisis in the 1930s or in Germany in the 1920s. These are extremely high figures. They reflect the history of a social disaster. When you hear about public employees laid off in Southern Europe, the layoffs do not include everyday people. They include physicians, engineers and many other experts. If you are made redundant at the age of 45 but you are a well-qualified expert you can say, “well, it is quite bad but I have got some savings and better times will come”. This will give you not only hope but also expectations. The real crisis in the majority of Southern Europe and Northern Europe is that it has been going on for seven years and no solution has been provided yet. In the meantime, the Financial Times, which is my favourite paper, announced that the Spanish economy is growing dynamically, faster than the rest of Europe, by 1.5%, while unemployment is falling by 2 ‰.

THREE EUROPES The differences among the interests of the three Europes are obvious. Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic live in one reality. Southern Europe lives in a totally different reality. It is totally different to be a southern Italian to being a German in Frankfurt.

“The real crisis in the majority of Southern Europe and Northern Europe is that it has been going on for seven years and no solution has been provided yet.” It does not mean of course that the Germans are evil, or the Italians are good. Very simply it is the reflection of a political phenomenon: the feasibility of the current structure of the European Union. And of course, there is the third area, our area, your area, where people live their lives turning to the East, looking forward to what can come next from behind the hills. On the other side, obviously the Germans have a lot more important things to do than being in war with the Russians. The Southern Europeans are trying to find a solution but do not know where to look for it. Consequently, we have three different views of what Europe consists of. The problem is treated differently in each country. I believe, and I also wrote about it, that the decision by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in relation to the credit crisis is a good projection of what the creditors will force on Europe. Very simply, he said: “I am the Prime Minister of Hungary and not a Minister of the EU. Our citizens are unable to repay the mortgage loans at the exchange rate that the HUF reached. I do not want our citizens to lose their homes. Consequently, as a country, we have the following proposal: we repay a certain amount in HUF, or we do not repay anything. Think about it, call me in the morning and let me know what you think.”

Orbán’s act was appreciated because it took place more or less simultaneously with the Cyprian disaster. Under Germany’s pressure, all bank accounts over EUR 100,000 were frozen in Cyprus. It is a rather large amount but it is painful to Russia if it is all Russian money and it is also painful to the Brits who keep all their savings there intending to use them in Cyprus to live out their years of retirement... On the one hand, we had the example of Cyprus, which caused a social disaster and, on the other hand, we had Orbán, who understood what many do not understand on the peripheries: if you owe billions of dollars you dictate. If you owe only a hundred dollars, others will dictate. The Greek Syriza Party also learned that les-

currency with a fixed exchange rate, while the tax rates are extremely different and are controlled by the national governments.

son very well.

revolution. They provided money only. The revolution required the real despair in the Ukraine. It is shocking for me that in this region everybody believes that Russians are four-and-a-half metres tall. In the meantime, if we look at the Ukraine, the Russians made a mistake with it all. Of course they had a very clear motive. That line symbolises the basis of the European peninsula. To the West, there is the peninsula, which is surrounded by water on both sides. To the East, there is Russia. The Baltic States are already members of NATO; St. Petersburg, which used to be 1,100 miles away from NATO, is only a hundred miles away. Belarus ... What can I say.

THE DIVERSITY OF EUROPE HAS BEEN FORGOTTEN However, the return of nationalism is an even more important European phenomenon. It is more important not in the sense of extreme right parties or radical left-wing parties but in the following sense: when the President of France Hollande talks to the Chancellor of Germany, then it is not a talk between two European leaders; the President of France talks to the Chancellor Germany, representing the interests of his own country. Unless he does so, he will lose the next elections. The European leaders who described themselves as members of the group of ministers working for the stabilisation of Europe together with leaders of other countries keep losing their positions. A lot of bad things can be said about the recently emerging radical parties but I would simply say the following: Europe does not function. Some argue that it could be made to function. My answer is: let’s do it. Seven years have gone by, it is time to solve the problem. Of course the problem is not that they did not think about it, or that there is no think-tank in Brussels which could prepare a study. The real problem is the extreme recognition that Germany and Greece are different. The problem is that in the enthusiasm and excitement that accompanied the establishment of the European Union, the common currency and the standards, the diversity of Europe was forgotten. Greece’s position simply does not allow for maintaining the EUR exchange rate. A state like Germany is unable to maintain a currency that is priced in Greece. It would be unreasonable to assume that all Member States should use a common

HUNDRED YEAR-OLD TACTICS – WHAT DOES PUTIN WANT TO ACHIEVE? While Europe was weakening, it was inevitable that Russia would return as an active participant. What happened in Kiev is a long story. Did the Americans fund the demonstrators? Absolutely. They did it very openly. Putin’s accusation, according to which America organised the protests, is true inasmuch as the Americans were involved. But America cannot trigger a

The Ukraine: that is where the Russians destroyed the Wehrmacht. That is where they fully destroyed them. This is the buffer that guarantees their safety. They would not give it up just as America cannot return Texas to Mexico either. It will not happen. But they cannot re-conquer it either. The performance of Russian intelligence in Kiev was pathetic. They were unable to project the uprising and they were unable to handle it either, they wanted to prepare a file for everybody - they lost or they were inexperienced, who knows. They tried with an uprising in the East, which did not occur and then they sent troops (we also sent troops, everybody sent troops), and in the end the Russian were forced to stop. It is important to bear in mind because if somebody in the region says KGB or FSB, people think of a legendary effective mechanism. This mechanism was not as effective there as elsewhere. Looking at the events from the angle of America, a one-hundred-year-old strategy has been applied since 1914. The United States intervenes in Europe whenever a state intends to grasp power. This has happened in Germany, as well as in Russia. During World War I, we sent an army of one million to

GEORGE FRIEDMAN: UNDERSTANDING WHAT WAR MEANS IN EUROPE

France after the collapse of the czar. In World War II, we occupied Europe in 1944 in the last moment (everything else was preliminary) and took part in the destruction of Germany. During the Cold War we learned that joining later is worse than joining sooner. So, in the Cold War we con-

“The Ukraine: that is where the Russians destroyed the Wehrmacht ... This is the buffer that guarantees their safety. They would not give it up as America cannot return Texas to Mexico either.” fronted them again. It was the same war though: The relationship with Russia and Germany. Against and again. The Cold War was about the relationship of the two states. Whether the Russians were successful or failed in the Ukraine does not matter. The United States responded. They had moderate responses; not in the form of an unexpected air attack or anything similar because they are saved for places where nothing can be done like in Iraq. Instead the USA decided to place equipment in Poland, Romania and in the Baltic states for preventive purposes. DREAM AND REALITY ON THE PERIPHERIES OF EUROPE Józef Piłsudski, the founder of modern Poland came up with the idea of Intermarium: an alliance from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. It never happened between the wars, but now it will happen. The alliance of Poland, Romania and the USA is true and deep. I do not believe that there will be

war. I do not know whether the Russians will return to the Ukraine. What I do know though is that a line will be drawn now. The second line in the buffer zone of the peripheries. The question is what Hungary will do. The Hungarians very prudently made an assumption that the Russians were close, there was chaos in Europe and the Americans would not come anyway. I also would have thought the same, if I were the Prime Minister. However, the Russians are not close, the Americans are coming and the chaos still continues in Europe. The European economic chaos is turning into a NATO chaos. A military association consists of armies. A number of NATO member states do not have an actual army but like attending cocktail parties in Brussels. A very pleasant pastime. However, with its bilateral agreements, the USA does what it has always been doing in Europe: it takes up a defensive position. In the meantime, the Russians seem to make all sorts of threats and promises while being ruined by the fluctuation of oil prices. This region will always remain a border region. An area to be acquired first from both sides. And I am talking about the return of nationalism to Europe. The Spaniards follow Spanish interests, and even the Scots intend to follow their own interests. The Catalans are doing the same. Not only countries, but also regions within countries wish to do the same. This is the Europe we are experiencing now. When I talk to Europeans, they always say that they would like to go back to the ordinary life. The period between 1992 and 2008 was abnormal. It was a wonderful and extraordinary period, but it was not normal for Europe. Europeans believe that they can extend it infinitely but are unable to do so. There is a great mess in the two large European institutions, the EU and NATO. The Russians are weak. Let us not forget though: a weak Russia could be the worst Russia. The first step of national security is to protect themselves. Hungary is a small country, and it must be part of an alliance. That alliance is now developing, and I have strong hopes that you will join it.

QUESTIONS ASKED DURING THE PRESENTATION What is the difference between EU and US trade? In terms of products USA exports make up 9% of the GDP. 40% of it is sold to NAFTA partners, Mexico and Canada. So exports make up approximately 5% of the GDP. Losing even half of it would be very unpleasant. However, it would not change American interests. In Europe, however, external and internal exports are extremely high because of Germany. This is one of the strengths of the USA contrary to China, which was heavily hit when its customers weakened in 2008, or contrary to Germany, which had to transform the EU in order to maintain demand, although growth was zero percent. America was able to gain strength because of its significant internal market of 450 million customers (Mexico, Canada, US). We do not depend on international trade. That is why we could witness the Congress voting against Obama’s idea about a free trade agreement with Asia. A lot of people believe in America that a free trade zone would be favourable for countries living from exports, such as South Korea, Japan and China, but we are not an export country. A huge debate evolved around it. How strong is China? A lot of countries are considered regional superpowers. China, for example, is always considered a regional superpower, although geographically it has very few options. To the south from China there are the Himalayas, the jungle and the hills; to the north there is Siberia and to the west there are thousands of miles of steppes. It would be extremely difficult to push an army across them. Their first aircraft carrier will soon set to sail, but they have been saying that for five years, while the United States has thirteen aircraft carrier military units. I am more afraid of the Chinese admirals than of the Chinese aircraft carriers. They do not have any military navy past or experience to train commanders. In time, China will grow into a major military power, but it will take time.

What is America incapable of? It is a true statement for the major parts of the world that even the local big powers would be in a difficult situation if the US intended to intervene. At this point I wish to distinguish between our capabilities of destroying armies and occupying countries. America has been very good at destroying armies. If you have an army that you no longer need, let us know, and we shall be happy to destroy it. However, we have not been good at occupying countries. This was true in Vietnam as well, where we triggered a counterrevolution. We could learn a lot from the Brits who never occupied India but manipulated the situation. I wish to stress that the United States is the youngest big power. We never expected that to happen, the collapse of the Soviet Union shocked us. We did not expect it to happen so soon, therefore the B52 strategic bombers continued to fly for another two years as we were not absolutely certain that that was the end of the Russians. Not even a generation has passed since then. We can compare the USA to a fifteen-year-old teenager. If you had a teenager in your home, you know what I am talking about. In the morning they say: “You do not have to take me, I’ll drive, I can drive,” in the afternoon they come home depressed that their best friend would not talk to them and they talk about suicide. These are the United States. They fall from one extreme to the other as a maniac in depression. The power that we have is totally unusual for us, and it would like to pass it on to someone else but cannot find anybody. At least another generation must grow up before America can conduct a stable distance and exemplary foreign policy. Until that happens you have to deal with us. If the Russians start something, not a calm and quiet British Empire will be there, but America. I like being an American because I can live in a world where I do not have to exchange places with others. The United States is an unpredictable, complex and often dangerous power. But the world that we live in exists between the two contradictions of the fragmented Europe and the immature America.

photos: Andrรกs Hajnal

2025 A. D. 94

STRATFOR’S PROGNOSIS: 2015-2025 Author: Anton Bendarzsevszkij

Once every five years, Stratfor publishes a global prognosis. The report for the period 2015-2025 is the fifth projection by the analysis and research institute established by George Friedman. Previously, they predicted the war between the USA against Islamic extremists, China’s economic decline, the structural crisis of the European Union, Russia’s expansion aspirations after 2010, as well as a “small cold war”. Stratfor’s focus is limited to the main trends, so the projections do not cover all regions. As they say, they are not oracles, but only see tendencies that may lead to certain consequences. For example, the forecast published this year does not mention Africa or Latin America, but focuses on Russia, Europe, Turkey, China and the United States.

THE EUROPEAN UNION According to Stratfor, the European Union will be unable to resolve its primary problem in the upcoming decade. This problem is not the crisis of the Euro zone, but the crisis of the free trade zone. Germany, the EU’s economic engine, exports over 50% of its GDP, and half of those exports go to other European countries. Consequently, Germany’s production capacity easily exceeds its internal consumption. This means that Germany’s continued economic growth, full employment and social stability depend on exports. The analysts conclude that there are now at least two different Europes: a Europe of less developed, Mediterranean countries and a Europe with more developed industry, including countries like Germany or Austria. (Interestingly enough, France does not fit either category.) These two European regions are very different from each other, which renders common European policies practically impossible. Any specific measure cannot be equally favourable to all members; what is good for one part of Europe may harm another. Hence, the recent success of right-wing parties in Europe.

In fact, the authors go further than that: East European fears of Russia are creating another Europe, which effectively means that there are now four Europes: • the United Kingdom and Scandinavia • Western Europe • Mediterranean Europe • Eastern Europe Stratfor predicted all of this back in 2005, along with the rising popularity of Euro-sceptic parties. Now, they argue that these trends will continue. Nevertheless, Stratfor is of the opinion that the European Union may survive in some form, but with bilateral economic, political and military relations. Any multilateral relations will be stringently regulated. In the analysts’ view, Europe in the next 10 years will be defined by the re-emergence and, in fact, a growing number of nation states. Germany, one of the world’s most influential states and the fourth strongest economy globally, could not have been omitted from the projection. Germany is very vulnerable, dependent on its own exports, as well as its customers and their purchasing power.

There are several forces working against Germany in this sense. European nationalism will lead to protectionism – the protection of capital and the labour market. Weaker (especially Southern European) states may erect trade barriers, primarily in agriculture, while European products are already facing growing international competition. According to Stratfor, Germany’s economy will probably decline as a result of these processes, which would lead to internal social and political crises. At the same time, Germany will lose much of its influence in Europe. Poland could enter the European scene as a new regional power. As Stratfor explains, Warsaw will be Europe’s economic engine in the next few years. Poland already boasts one of the most impressive development rates. The country’s economy continues to expand, and its political influence is growing. Thus, Poland will become a dominant power in the Northern European region over time. In fact, the analysts go as far as saying that Poland will lead an antiRussian coalition including, among others, Romania. According to Stratfor, this coalition will play an important role in altering Russia’s borders. As Moscow weakens, this coalition will become the determining power over not only the Ukraine and Belarus, but also farther in the East. RUSSIA Stratfor predicts nothing favourable for Russia. They do not expect the country to survive the next 10 years in its current form. Russia has failed to modernise and restructure its economy when energy prices were high, and is too sensitive to every price fluctuation in the energy market. Russia is a federation structured so that all revenues are channelled to Moscow, from where it is redistributed to the regions. Yet, each region’s contribution to the central budget is different, which in itself leads to tensions. As Moscow’s revenues decline, the financing of Russian’s regions deteriorates. According to analysts, this will lead back to the 1980s and 1990s, when regions tried to defend themselves from the centre, so the ties between Moscow and the peripheries will weaken significantly. The Russian national security service, FSB, will not be able to prevent these developments. As Russia’s economy stumbles, FSB’s power will decrease. Meanwhile in the West, Poland, Hungary and Romania will forge ties against Russia. In fact, the Ukraine and Belarus may well join this alliance.

The rest of the forecast is President Putin’s worst nightmare. Russia will be unable to control the Caucasus. The Central Asian region will be gradually destabilised. Karelia could once again become part of Finland, or at least there will be attempts to that end. In the Far East, the areas close to China, as well as those regions with strong economic ties to Japan and the USA, will act independently. According to Stratfor, there will be no rebellion against Moscow; instead, central support and control over members of the federation will peter out. And this leads us to the gravest crisis in the second half of the next decade: the issue of nuclear safety. A huge nuclear arsenal is strewn across Russia. Who will control this in a country that is falling apart and declining economically? Who will take responsibility? The USA must definitely consider this issue as a kind of test for itself. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA In the next decade, we shall witness the failure of the nation states established by Europe across the North African region. Power is already in the hands of various armed groups (and not the governments) there. This leads to constant fighting, the end of which is not foreseen, not even in the long run. The various armed groups cannot win these fights, but they cannot be fully eliminated either, which will lead to a total stalemate with constant internal fighting. Not even the United States can resolve this situation. America will not intervene on a large scale, because, in view of Russian events, this region will be less important. The situation will present a grave security challenge to the entire region. The United States will not deploy its army there, even if the countries of the region expect it to. However, one state will be most interested in resolving these issues and may even be able to do so: Turkey. Neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia is in a position (geographically or military-wise) to do that. Even though Ankara has so far avoided risky situations, the Turkish government will be forced to change that strategy. Intervention will necessitate help from the United States. Washington will in fact provide that, but for a price: full involvement in Russia’s isolation. Stratfor predicts that Turkey will agree to that.

GEORGE FRIEDMAN VISION OF THE FUTURE George Friedman’s geopolitical projections of the future of the USA and the world are summarised in his books entitled “The Next Decade”, “The Next 100 Years” and “Flashpoints”. The main global statements in all three books are depicted on this map. The books were written between 2009 and 2015. Several of his predictions have come true, while other still seem unbelievable. We will allow readers to compare the map with the current geopolitical relations and draw their own conclusions. 98

USA

Strengthening economic and political relations

Russia George Friedman counts four emerging superpowers in the world: Poland, Turkey, Mexico and Japan. Areas that will appease (or have already appeased) the US and (will) receive major support from that country.

Potential or existing buffer zones

Migration processes

Intensifying conflicts between countries and regions According to Friedman, North and South Korea will be united by 2030.

Voluntary and forced isolation

In Friedmanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s view, the main geopolitical dividing lines will be in the Pacific region, as well as between Europe, the Eurasian union and the Islamic region. At the end of the century, a rift between Mexico and the US may appear

GEORGE FRIEDMAN’S VISION OF EUROPE George Friedman’s geopolitical projections of the future of the USA and the world are summarised in his books titled “The Next Decade”, “The Next 100 Years”, and “Flashpoints”. The main global statements in all three books are depicted on this map. The books were written between 2009 and 2015. Several of his predictions have come true, while other still seem unbelievable. We will allow readers to compare the map with the current geopolitical relations and the draw their own conclusions.

EU Russia Countries that may leave the European Union. One of the factors driving this process in the Mediterranean region is migration, which will cause economic rather than social tensions. Potential or existing buffer zones

George Friedman talks about two emerging superpowers in Europe: Poland and Turkey. 100

BRITAIN Great Britain will back the USA besides or instead of the European Union FRANCE France will work on creating a Mediterranean Union led by itself, in order to offset the strengthening of Germany. POLAND A new alliance system led by Poland will emerge in Central and East Europe.

Tension is expected between Great Britain and the European Union. Europe needs the Ukraine, too, so the continentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s current buffer zone would be pushed eastwards. This is also the borderline for Russian expansion which the US still considers safe. Russia would push its buffer zone westwards. In response, the US would build up its line of defence along the Polish-Romanian axis.

Areas that will appease (or have already appeased) the USA and (will) receive major support from that country. It is questionable whether Turkey will accept this help.

In exchange for energy, Germany will improve Russiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s political reputation. The USA will aim to prevent an alliance between these two countries.

101

By the end of the decade, Turkey will become the No. 1 regional power, and will try to extend its influence to the northern shore of the Black Sea and then the Balkans. As the EU’s positions weaken, these attempts may well be successful.

Africa or Latin America. They will gradually take over China’s role and should boast impressive economic growth by the end of the decade.

EAST ASIA

The United States still produces 22% of the world’s economic output, and its expansion has been virtually unstoppable since 1880. According to Stratfor, the US is the global military and political superpower, and this will not change in the next 10 years. The main benefit of the US is its island-like location. Exports account for only 9% of GDP, and 40% of those exports go to Canada and Mexico. In other words,

How will China’s Communist government cope with the threat of slowing economic growth? Will the long-standing opposition between China and Japan be renewed? Who can be the engine of the global economy? A cycle will end in China. The fast-growing country of cheap labour will disappear, and Beijing will enter a new phase. In this new cycle, economic expansion will slow down. As a result, oppression will increase, so people’s dissatisfaction caused by slow growth can be controlled. China will remain a major economic power in the world, but will no longer be the engine of global economic growth as it used to be. Actually, the country is progressing along the same path Japan, Taiwan and South Korea travelled. Stratfor projects the following about China: • extension of the Communist dictatorship and total control of the country by the Party, • political and economic centralisation, • growing nationalism. According to analysts, China will not show military aggression; although it might move towards areas of Russian interest. There, however, it will have to face Japan; since, meanwhile, Tokyo will not remain idle. Its naval power is expected to be boosted in the next decade. Russia, a declining superpower, will be unable to defend its maritime interests in East Asia. All this will lead to a game of three players, with China and Japan competing and preventing each other from acquiring the desired regions. Basically no country could take over China’s economic role, but according to Stratfor, there are 16 smaller countries that could, in certain fields, succeed Beijing. These are called “post-China manufacturing hubs”. Their total population is over 1.15 billion. These countries have underdeveloped infrastructure, are not stable states characterised by the rule of law, and exhibit high risk factors. Many of these countries are located in Southeast Asia, East

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only 5% of America’s GDP depends on consumption in the rest of the world. The US no longer depends on energy sources as much as it did – for example, at the time of the 1973 oil crisis – because it has become a major energy producer. As costs rise in China, industrial production has started to grow in the US. The United States will clearly profit from global crises. (Stratfor neglects to note that the global crisis of 2008 started in the United States.) The international capital leaving China, Europe and Russia will gradually flow into the US, so the projection is based on the assumption that the United States will remain the heart of the international system. Still, its political and military interventions abroad will be much more selective in future. The United States entered the First and Second World Wars late and suffered more casualties than it had planned (even if that was just a fraction of the losses suffered by Europe). However, the US joined the Cold War at the very beginning, challenging and restraining the Soviet Union. Stratfor argues that this helped America avoid major casualties and a direct armed conflict. Having learned that lesson, the US is still keeping an eye on attempts at changing the European hegemony, and it will immediately react to any danger. This is what we are witnessing concerning Russia. Even thought Stratfor thinks that Russia is condemned to economic recession, for the very same reason, it harbours a grave threat in the short term. (In fact, a failure to prevent its imperialist endeavours would have allowed Russia to strengthen further, which is no longer possible due to its current isolation.) However, the USA will have to neutralise

“There have been and will be conflicts across Europe, as in Yugoslavia and now the Ukraine. I don’t think that Europe will revert to large-scale wars, but rather to a human normality where periods of war and peace will alternate, and people will die. There will not be 100 million casualties, but only the thought that Europe ceases to be an “exceptional place”.

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the dangers inherent in Russia’s decline in the second half of the decade. In general, Stratfor is convinced that the United States - will not resolve Europe’s problems, - will not fight against China and - will only intervene in the Middle East minimally. According to Stratfor’s analysts, the USA will sooner or later be hit by another crisis. What is already apparent is that the next 50-year crisis cycle has

already started. A similar cycle began in 1932 and ended with the presidency of Jimmy Carter. Now we are about 15 years before the end of the current cycle (i.e., the effects will be felt by the end of the decade). Stratfor predicts that the new crisis in the USA will be a crisis of the middle classes. The problem is not inequality, but the desire of the middle classes to maintain living standards consistent with their status. Sooner or later, it will be impossible to maintain such. The American government is not expected to deal with this problem until the elections in 2028 or 2032.

GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES: THE WORLD IN 2016 Author: Anton Bendarzsevszkij

“Geopolitical Futures” was created by George Friedman in December 2015. This company spun off Stratfor. Friedman started to differentiate his new company’s activity by separating analyses from projections. Thus, Geopolitical Futures makes annual and 25-year projections. Similarly to Stratfor, this firm also monitors daily geopolitical events and amends its forecasts as necessary. The motto of Friedman’s new company: “Geopolitical Futures tells you what matters and what doesn’t.” The following is their forecast for 2016.

Geopolitical Futures (hereinafter: GF) attempts to forecast the main trends in 2016 in each region, placing special emphasis on the Middle East and Turkey, as well as Europe, as the most important scenes this year. According to GF’s analysts, the United States will continue to stay as far from the armed conflicts in the Middle East as possible, instead trying to encourage a country in the region to fight ISIS. This country will probably be Turkey. GF expects Turkey to act more and more decisively against ISIS. This will cause increasingly hostile relations between Ankara and Moscow, and Turkey should turn towards the US. All this will result in Turkey’s rise to the position of the prime regional power in the Middle East. Meanwhile, ISIS will remain the main problem in that region in 2016. GF projects that ISIS will continue to gain ground this year. The organisation will maintain control over its current areas and in fact expand further towards Yemen, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. In an adverse scenario, sub-Saharan Africa and Northwest Asia may also be targets. According to analysts, the USA has underestimated the terrorist organisation, and the fight against terrorism will bring no tangible results in 2016, despite a possible intervention by Turkey.

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GF claims that Europe is facing major challenges this year. The economic crisis is expected to spread from Greece to Italy, a country already characterised by growing indebtedness and high unemployment. At the same time, the migration crisis will deepen. The only solution that GF foresees involves the introduction of unified EU-level regulations, with an authority for the supervision of external borders. Another problem is that Europe plays no leading role in settling the Ukrainian conflict. All these issues (the contagion of the economic crisis to Italy, the unresolved migration question, and the Ukrainian crisis) will lead to a fragmented Europe. Due to migration, limitation of free movement within the EU is a real danger, with individual member states striving for increased autonomy. GF does not mention Russia’s domestic policy problems or the issues in the Middle East, but only delves into Russian-Ukrainian relations. The researchers expect Russia to consent to the settlement of the Ukrainian situation in cooperation with the EU and America. The only aspect important to Moscow will be that Ukraine be neutral. GF is not very positive about China either. As economic difficulties accumulate, Chinese leaders will step up their dictatorship (i.e., significantly increased repression is foreseen). Beijing will

attempt to redress economic inequalities, which will affect the countries that depend on Chinese exports. According to the forecasts, important changes will occur this year on the periphery of the mainstream geopolitical scene. For example, Latin America will suffer from economic problems, stemming from lower demand, a stronger dollar and low raw material prices.

Argentina and Brazil are projected to introduce central right-wing reforms, which should make them much more attractive to foreign capital. Due to low oil prices, Venezuela will remain in deep trouble in 2016, both politically and economically. Africa may face troubles similar to Latin America's. The slowdown of the Chinese economy and falling raw material prices will cause problems.

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NEW ALEXANDRITES

Learn things when necessary; not sooner and not later. Author: Zoltán Baracskai

Today, many more people know about many more things than yesterday and the day before; but that knowledge is shallow. The knowledge elements and/ or theories that are indispensable to problem-solving should be deepened whenever and wherever necessary. We cannot know in advance what existing and missing knowledge it will take to resolve future problems. This is the world we are preparing for, and to that end, I imagine a school – including workshops and teaching – where the production and transfer of knowledge is freed from mediocrity and the “karaoke fashion”. In a place like that, maybe the new Alexandrians would enjoy learning and performing research.

be threatened with a stoker. I also will not say that everything else is already written, so read more. If it is written, it is certainly not written like this. Let us attempt to resolve a problem in a way that is slightly different from the positivists’ method. I would like to write here and now so that a few people should start thinking about the difference between today’s knowledge-seeking – which is almost the same as learning – from yesterday’s. Here and now, let us think about our ability to seek knowledge where and when necessary.

PROBLEM-SOLVING, SEEKING KNOWLEDGE WITH CURIOSITY

Our grandparents were dissatisfied with our parents, our parents with us, and we with our children. The standard excuse: you read less. “At least 32 million books and 750 million articles have been issued in the history of mankind so far” (Tapscott, Williams, 2007), along with tens of millions of other knowledge carriers. Bravely facing some people’s outrage, I ask the following question: “Does it matter if you read three thousand of 100 million sources, or not even a single one?” From the perspective of participating in available knowledge, it does not matter at all, because the reader and the non-reader are equally clueless about knowledge in the world. This is the time to quote Woody Allen: “I took a speed-reading course And read War and Peace in less than twenty minutes. It’s about Russia.” In the same manner, I could say that the book that won the Nobel prize in literature in 2015 is about “Homo Sovieticus”. Is it enough to know that much? It depends what the knowledge is needed for. If you want to find your way

One of my favourite stories is Karl Popper’s confession about the giants of philosophy: “At the beginning of the academic year 1946-47, I received an invitation from the secretary of the Moral Sciences Club… Wittgenstein, sitting close to the fireplace and nervously playing with the stoker, said provocatively, ‘Give me an example of a moral rule!’ I responded, ‘For example, you shall not threaten the guest lecturer with a stoker.’ Wittgenstein left in anger. This was followed by a very pleasant discussion with the active involvement of Bertrand Russell.” (Popper, 1998:112) This story may well illustrate how big ideas emerge. The giants of thinking are also human, only the things give them ideas that are different than those of mediocre people. I’m not into spreading well-structured algorithms, especially not in the field of knowledgeseeking. Rather, I will write something for which I may

IN THE GOOD OLD DAYS

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in the world, this much may be enough. If you want to resolve a “perceptible problem,” then it is too little. I do state that Antigone by Sophocles, Ibsen’s Wild Duck and Márai’s Confessions of a Bourgeois, along with the other two-thousand-nine-hundred-ninety-seven items, help me filter knowledge. A person who reads for 90 minutes every day over 60 years (which results in the above-mentioned 3,000 read items) finds it easier to select. Maybe how much we read does matter? Let us examine the ideals of the various eras. Back when few people had the opportunity to sit for comprehensive matriculation exams, lasting

If you strive for accumulating knowledge, you shall accumulate doubtful knowledge.

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knowledge (Latin, Greek, geometry) was in fashion. When college degrees came within reach, “practical knowledge” (of a single discipline or even just a part of it) became fashionable. Nowadays, when so much knowledge is available online, knowing a bit of everything is in fashion. Much has changed in our environment. What can you change when you examine problem-solving? Maybe you should trust that you will be able to deepen your knowledge when and where it is necessary. But only educated people will be able to do that – people who have learned the basics and, even more importantly, have learned to learn. As Karl Popper, who was born among books, writes in his CV, “I will be forever grateful to my first teacher, Emma Goldberg, for teaching me how to read, write and count. I believe it is only these things that children should be taught. In fact, some children do not need that either. Everything depends on the environment, but all you need to learn is to read and think.”

NEW ALEXANDRITES

Anyone who has learned to study will be able to expand their knowledge and interpret it. Putting knowledge into a context is inseparable from the individual. The context of one person is not the same as that of another. DO NOT BE AFRAID OF DOUBTFUL KNOWLEDGE! The statement “it will rain on Friday, but Saturday will be a nice day” contains more knowledge than “it will rain on Friday” or “it will be a nice day on Saturday”. That is true, but the probability of the truth of more complex knowledge is less than that of elementary knowledge. It means that we cannot simultaneously strive at expanding knowledge and at making it reliable. Many consider this obvious statement impossible, but perhaps it is not so. We simply cannot escape the constant effort to reach the truth. Karl Popper reached a simple, but ingenious conclusion. The only verification for doubtful knowledge is a dispute – i.e., interpersonal control. Doubtful knowledge is not true or false; the test is whether or not it can be put into a context here and now for anyone. One part of personal knowledge is knowledge; the other is the ability to interpret it. One could also say after Thomas Kuhn: when any piece of new knowledge is admitted by a group of scientists, it has been verified. Now let us address the dispute of how to resolve the problem of many people knowing a little about many things. In 1971, Herbert Simon projected that knowledge abundance would result in lack of attention. Those who are in their twenties grew up with the internet, got used to freedom and freely accessible knowledge. “If you had to pay for something in the past, but that is no longer the case, you tend to believe that it is because of a decrease in quality. But if you never had to pay for something, it would never even occur to you.” (Anderson, 2009:82) What happens on the internet where more and more knowledge is accessible free, without any charge? Continuous browsing and quick picks here and there break up your attention and make you unable to focus on one thing for a long time. Nicholas Carr (2014) projects that we shall be aware of many things, but will only know very little, having only brief knowledge. The abundance of knowledge did not increase the capacity of our long-term memory, because it can still store the same number of cognitive schemes as it could in the previous centuries. Originally, the

definition of learning was used to refer to school studies – which led to educated people who could later be trained further and/or retrained. By now, we have reached a point where organisational studies and learning organisations are mentioned, as though scientists were competing over what else to add the concept of learning. The concept of lifelong learning (Baracskai et al., 2014) is also turning into a common concept. Many items have been added to it. If you go into it, you will see immediately that lifelong learning has always existed. The saying “live and learn” was not invented yesterday, either. The true question is whether there are new forms of how to expand our knowledge.

The new Alexandrites will be able to interpret their expanded knowledge where and when needed. This year, I have attended four international conferences dedicated to learning. Much was discussed there, but I could not see any sign of a true paradigm change. All questions left open in the old paradigm were brushed under the carpet. Perhaps we have to wait longer for a change of paradigm. “Each student has different interests and learning styles. The object of studies and the learning method must capture their energy and imagination, and they need to activate various learning methods. Nobody can be forced to learn if they do not want to. Learning is a personal choice,” said Sir Ken Robinson. In the age of knowledge abundance, there are questions that could not be answered with the old paradigm. SISYPHUS STRENGTHENED HIS MUSCLES “People,” - said the little prince, “get on fast trains, but do not know what they are looking for.” So they do things and are very busy, yet do not make any progress. He also added, “There is no point.” (Saint-Exupéry, The Little Prince) A pointless activity is referred to as Sisyphusian labour. However, perhaps Sisyphus’ work was not totally pointless, because he strengthened his muscles. You could also say that you do not know what you are doing whilst looking for something. People browse in bins and on the internet, I wrote twenty years ago.

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It was too soon, but now it is slightly too late to understand that we cannot always know what we are looking for. The problems begin when we look for something, but we do not know what it is. “And I, Meno, like what I am saying. Some things I have said of which I am not altogether confident. But that we shall be better and braver and less helpless if we think that we ought to enquire, than we should have been if we indulged in the idle fancy that there was no knowing and no use in seeking to know what we do not know.” (Plato) When the problems can be felt, I resolved that we do not know what we are looking for or where to look for the solution.

At school we resolved problems that involved infinity. It was not difficult, because they were designed by enabling us to remember the only right solution. But it does not mean that we understand the concept of infinity. “Anyway, even if we describe how things work, it does not mean that we also understand a particular correlation,” says Thomas Sedláček (2012:151). When we look for the only right solution, we know what we are looking for and where to look for it. If you look for a theatre performance, than you have a different approach. You know that there are theatres, and you also know that you wish to see a classic drama performance. When you look for the book

Karl Popper entitled his curriculum vitae “The Unended Quest” (Popper, 1998). That could also be translated as permanent curiosity. He referred to the process of resolving problems as “Tentative Theory”. As the image clears, we criticise the potential solutions to find their effective range. “The first tentative solution of the problem and the first problem somehow had to occur simultaneously.” (Popper, 1998:120) The problem-solving process begins and ends with problems, which means that it is endless. Each solution can be improved with further tentative solutions. The process can be started anywhere. A process chart is no more or less than an illustration that reflects reality, but is not reality. It is different from guidance, where, by adhering to the steps, you can reach the only right solution. If you accept that the process of problem-solving is permanent curiosity, then we can also accept that this work is not pointless, because we can strengthen our muscles. Occasionally, we can find a solution that can be verified, but sometimes we find one that cannot. It is not a problem; we should not give up. Each problem contains a solution, and the reverse is also true. Each solution also contains a new problem to a certain extent.

Trust, you remember having bought it, but you do not remember where you put it. In these cases, you know what you are looking for, but you do not know where. Archaeologists think differently when they look for things. They use the method of excavations when they reveal the remains of historic buildings from under the ground. What they find proves that that thing existed. The oldest found pictures were made in the Stone Age more than twenty-five thousand years ago, but the first signs of writing appeared in the Middle East approximately 3500 B.C. That does not mean that writing did not exist or that it existed one hundred thousand years ago. This search starts by knowing where we are looking, but we do not know what we are looking for.

EVERYTHING IS SMART OR NOT Knowledge division disturbs a lot of organisations, because, in the past, “intellectual property” was part of the organisation. At the beginning of his career, Bill Gates was outraged that his software products were copied free of charge and objected to it, claiming that they would not have money for any new development and that everybody would lose out.

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Similarly, there are still organisations that consider it a theft or breach of property when anyone expands their knowledge acquired within the organisation elsewhere. However, in 1998, Bill Gates stated at the University of Washington that if people were stealing software, they were at least stealing his. That way, they would use it, thought Gates, and then would realise that they should pay for it in the subsequent decade. These days, some organisations think that there could also be winners from the free distribution of knowledge. If everybody closed their gates, the worldwide web would lose its main purpose. It seems that we only share on the worldwide web what we actually want to sell. Perhaps the giant companies also encourage us to do so, because all we can see around us is the e-version of aggressively working agents. We know very little about the functioning of the Google search engine.

NEW ALEXANDRITES

Some state that they know how to position a message well, but perhaps they should not even be noticed. They do not know, in fact, what a better position means to us on the hit list. The Google declarations only reveal what they actually wish to communicate to us. They try to disseminate belief in certificates. Frequency justifies everything according to positivist philosophy. The algorithms introduced to routine movements improved serial production a great deal. That cannot lead to the conclusion that algorithms can also be applied to permanent curiosity. To realise, through the camera of the eye, which way the crowd looks stems from the same paradigm as the review of the hand movements of workers. What can you see when you type in a known concept? Let us take a look at “knowledge sharing”. Approximately six or seven million hits. The first hit is not surprising either. It is a Wiki article which quotes two lines from the book by Wendi Bukowitz and Ruth Williams published in 1999. Polányi also comes up on the hit list at some point, even though perhaps he is the only one worth finding. Well, any philosopher and/or practising new Alexandrite who runs a search for that concept knows more than they can learn from the first few hits. This knowledge could perhaps be useful for a student or a bored pensioner. It seems that Wiki serves students and pensioners well. I have no problem with that. My problem is that you must know an awful lot in order to have a reasonable number of hits, to select among things that are unfamiliar and which you did not know existed. When that occurs, I usually find that the search engine is not clever enough. It is as if an up-to-date philosopher and/or practising new Alexandrite would be cleverer, because they could tell you straightaway what to look for and what to ignore. No search can do that; i.e., it is far from an up-to-date philosopher and/or practising new Alexandrite. Where we are now is that the “look for the guru” can still provide more than browsing on the worldwide web. This is not exactly the case either, because when we know a lot, we can start using a search engine – hence, the idea

that we cannot.teach the automated search engine to conduct searches in the same way a clever person would do. The experience extracted from learning paths could perhaps help more. I read an article from Google, but still did not learn where they stood with speculation. Perhaps they are interested in robotics, or in the identification of “if ... then” correlations behind contents. Perhaps both, or perhaps none.

“Artificial intelligence will be the final version of Google. We are still far away from that.” (Larry Page, 2000) Google looks at approximately two hundred things when it ranks a source of information. Even if it looks at the frequency of updates on the pages, it does not mean that it can also look for the quality of the update. During an examination period, students upload and download many extracts on the internet, but it does not mean that the content is updated. Anyone who grew up on artificial intelligence has seen or worked with Prolog and/or Lisp programs and may find problems or look for solutions there. Anyone who grew up on databases may find problems and look for solutions there. Anyone who grew up on cognitive psychology may find problems and look for solutions there. The detectable problems do not do you the favour of accommodating what you grew up on or presenting themselves as textbook cases, because there we always learn the one and only right solution. It is not black magic; only someone should realise that if data mining and text mining exists, perhaps there is also experience mining. (Baracskai, 2014/b) Perhaps solutions should also be looked for on that basis.

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RICHARD FLORIDA: CREATIVITY IS THE BASIS OF THE FUTURE Author: Eszter Polyák, Richard Florida gave a presentation in Budapest upon an invitation from PAGEO

Richard Florida, one of the world’s best known urbanists, decided to analyse in his research what makes a town successful and liveable. Florida represents the creative class and supports the urban environment that will become the long-term engine of economic, scientific and cultural development. Invited by PAGEO, the American professor gave a presentation in Budapest in June 2015 with valuable thoughts, also relevant for Hungary.

WHO MAKES THE EARTH MOVE Florida is the author of a number of bestsellers, of which The Rise of the Creative Class stands out. In it, the author attempts to define the creative class, which is the social class that determines our age the most. According to Florida, the identity of the new leading class of the current times has not yet evolved. This identity stems from the creative factor and the transforming economy. The purpose of the book is to show why and how that class will achieve an outstanding role and what consequences it will have for society as a whole. Using the words of Keith Simonton, he defines creativity as the interconnection of “novelty, usefulness and surprise”. Creativity is required for current lifestyles and can be used in all areas, but occasionally is not compatible with an organised system. A creative individual is no longer a novelty; it is the “new mainstream” in the USA. According to Florida, the great economic, cultural and geographic changes have been driven by these creative experts since the 1990s. The creative class evolved from the economy transforming in response to the crisis, and its identity may also stem from economic change. This corresponds with the statistical data, according to which the share of the creative class in the labour market did not decrease – in fact, it mostly increased

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during the crisis. Two types of employees can be distinguished within the group: the “super creative” base, which actively drives innovation, and creative experts, who are provided opportunities to exploit their creativity in their job. They make up one-third of active employees, and Florida sets a target for the future to exploit the creativity of the remaining twothirds of individuals participating in the working and service-providing classes.

“... the great economic, cultural and geographic changes have been driven by these creative experts...” The creative class is fundamentally contrary to the ideal, expert image of corporate culture that dominated the 20th century. Loyalty is less important; demand for mobility increases; and certain rules, such as dress code, become looser. Their work has become an organic part of their lifestyle, but creative and flexible work also has a shady side – namely, such individuals struggle with a continuous shortage of time, because they allocate every minute of their lives to their profession. The creative class can also be formed based on the values

believed by its members – among which individualism, diversity and openness, as well as meritocracy, stand out. Their set of values is also reflected in employment aspects, and therefore in relation to the increasingly expanding changes of the last ten years. It has become general characteristic that creative work is ranked higher than an attractive salary in the list of motivations. A job full of challenges and responsibilities has gained importance. Most individuals dream of flexibility in terms of a job, environment, employment and the community. Professional feedback is also important to them. Florida published a new version of his book in 2010, where the former thoughts

correlation between the global creativity index and the Gini index of countries, the problem of inequality is still especially severe in the USA, which is presented to us as an example. In that regard, Florida is afraid of a new type of geographic segregation.

The most important message given by Florida is the

reflecting on the changes triggered by the crisis is the essential message. Florida looks at the 2008 crisis as the ultimate failure of the economic and industrial order. He sees the development of a new economic system where the relationship between companies and employees is changing, and which also takes into account problems arising from confrontations between technological and social development. Although there is a negative

mission of the social class as he defines it. He calls upon the creative class to build a new structure that can produce benefits for all society. In that process, he defines six key components and, although some of them seem obvious (strong middle class, social net, education system), he introduces the feeling of responsibility and urges people to find their identity – because, without these, the creative class cannot be the path to future opportunity.

photo: Jaime Hogge

“... creative work is ranked higher than an attractive salary in the list of motivations.”

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FLORIDA AND THE BUDAPEST BRAIN BAR Richard Florida attended the Brain Bar conference, held in Budapest on June 5, 2015, where he gave a keynote presentation on successful municipalities. In his presentation, he explained that he had visited Budapest before and was happy to see the obvious development. The spectacular changes raised a few questions: What is happening in the economy and in towns? What is happening in Budapest? Florida outlined potential wider prospects for countries recovering from the trauma of the economic crisis. In the course of history, the transformation of the economic order has always been a natural process, although as a general tendency progress was always made as a result of changes in the use of physical equipment. That is how the agricultural society turned into an industrial society. However, over recent decades there have been major changes in the quality of materials, because the “materials” of our times include technology and information. The labour market has transformed accordingly. Since the 1970s, the ratio of employees working in the service sector has gone up significantly, and their dominance is still prevailing. Florida revises Marx’s thoughts when defining the individual features of the people of our times. Not only information and technology make our times special, but so does creativity, which is a special human quality of the individual forming this period. With the help of this quality, the work of the community transforms its own environment. This is supported by the fact that there are 20 countries where 40 per cent of the employees are engaged in creative jobs. According to Florida, the same statement applies to approximately one-third of jobs in Hungary. The main driving force of economic and social development consists of the 3 Ts of development: technology, talent and tolerance. Indices were established on the basis of these three factors. Hungary is ranked 34th and 33rd in the world according to the first two factors, which is an outstanding result according to Florida. There is a slight shortfall in tolerance, as Hungary lies in the 41st position globally in that respect. Although he admits that his calculations have been criticised, he still maintains his main theory that creativity exists in each person. He supports that statement with plenty of research conducted in factories. The most successful companies turned out to be those that regarded their employees as potential inventors and creators and made their plants competitive by

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ADVISOR TO GLOBAL BRANDS Florida established the Creative Class Group advisory company in 2002, where the world’s next generation of researchers, university lecturers and business strategists provide advisory services to a number of companies and organisations. “Each individual human creature is creative.” This short sentence can also be referred to as Richard Florida’s ars poetica, because in his research career, the urbanist focuses mostly on the power of human creativity that transforms cities and the quality of life. Richard Florida is the director of the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto and a global research professor at New York University. In addition to his university career, he is also the founder and director of the Creative Class Group. In his career, he explains issues of economy and development for the 21st century through sociological, economic and demographic research. Apart from academic work, he is the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic magazine and founder of the CityLab column, which has become the world’s leading website dedicated to urbanism. He makes the results of his latest research available to the public in order to point out the challenges of the 21st century affecting American cities. He analyses current issues, such as the situation of the New York middle class on the luxury property market or firearms permitted in American secondary schools, and he also writes about the negative impacts of economic incentives for small enterprises. His clients include Google, Philips, Kraft Foods and a number of other multinational companies, which receive advisory services on the basis of their global database and analyses. Their investment strategies also take into account local specificities, such as the structure of cities, the degree of urbanisation and the local importance of the creative class. Thus, they address primarily companies that intend to attain a target group from creative individuals who have considerable purchasing power. Their activities focus primarily on Florida’s research and concepts in terms of economic competitiveness, as well as social and cultural development. His wife, Rana Florida, is a companion in his work, too, and supports the objectives of the organisation through business and enterprise development.

RICHARD FLORIDA : CREATIVITY IS THE BASIS OF THE FUTURE

exploiting that creativity. Nonetheless, factories are less relevant to the current system. These days the largest class is the service provider class. This sector makes up 50% of the American labour market. It is characterised by low operational productivity. Its robust growth, which began in the 1970s, stemmed from the robotisation of industrial activities. However, the American dream has started to decay. Added value and salaries are low, which has had detrimental effects on the middle class. Inequality continues to grow. According to Florida, more creativity in the provision of services would be a solution, as it would provide not only social advantages, but would also lead to

not countries, but mega-regions that compete with each other. Therefore, instead of all of China, only the Shanghai mega-region, or similarly, the BudapestVienna mega-region are competitors. However, even within these territorial concentrations, the three Ts are very important and concentrated in the territorial hubs of our times – i.e., cities, where Florida can see a revolution developing. Communities create the greatest innovations, as innovation stems from the collective talent and will of a city. The quality of community cannot be neglected either. A good community has distinctive features including openness, flexibility, independent and tolerance. Naturally, the quality of place is also important. This

greater productivity.

entails several dimensions with natural characteristics that are made use of and not destroyed. One is the urban requirement, where heritage protection and innovation are equally important. Another is cultural environment, which does not only involve high culture, but also initiatives on the street. Even startup companies tend to move into cities. On the other hand, gentrification, concentration and plutocracy are observed in New York, London and San Francisco, causing significant problems for larger groups seeking evolution. That is why the search for new places is an important part of the urban revolution. For Florida, human creativity is the most important factor. You never know where the next source of innovation will come from, and therefore this opportunity must be maintained for each individual. This is the most important mission of the creative class.

THE POWER OF THE “HUB”

Richard Florida at Budapest Brain Bar

Florida also challenges the statement “the world has become flat”. In his opinion, geographic space and distance are more important than ever before, especially since the greatest talents and inventors always emerged from densely populated hubs, which throughout the history of mankind have always been cities. He also thinks that this statement is proved by the map of night-time illumination, which reflects the geographic structure of the global economy. Lights outline spectacular networks. They concentrate the world into 40 economic functional areas, forming mega-regions. According to Florida, these days it is

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â&#x20AC;&#x153;... you never know where the next source of innovation will come from, and therefore this opportunity must be maintained for each individual...â&#x20AC;? 121

SOCIETY WITH CREATIVITY Source: Creative Cities, 2015. Prepared by: Sára Farkas

A study of the key factors in the creative transformation of cities was prepared by Edwin Bendyk, who also relied on the theories of Charles Landry and Richard Florida. Berlin is a perfect example of revival. The creative shift of the German capital stemmed from social inclusion and affordable services, not from physical rehabilitation. Affordability allows a city to remain culturally versatile, while hosting a great deal of activities and services. Versatility is the basis of creativity.

According to Bendyk, creative revival is the result of a long process. Old physical work and jobs are gradually replaced by activities that are based on human creativity and knowledge, with an increase in the degree of qualifications of young people. At the same time, the physical environment also changes. Former plants and power plants are replaced by lofts and cultural and creative industrial centres. The development of a physical environment and infrastructure that promotes innovation and knowledge flow, in addition to an accepting and tolerant social approach, is an essential component of this movement and transformation toward creativity. According to Bendyk’s proposal (based on Florida), the first step towards that objective is the liberation and encouragement of the creativity of current residents. Creativity can be promoted with adequate living conditions and a more liveable city environment, for

“Creativity can be promoted with adequate living conditions and a social environment that accepts learning and testing processes....” 122

which museum investments and the development of music centres, good-quality public areas, schools, universities, restaurants and clubs are required. According to Florida, the development of such places is much more important than creating technology parks and incubators (technology transfer institutions), because the latter institutions will automatically be created when the city has already attracted a creative and innovative workforce. Bendyk also refers to the ambivalent example of Bilbao, where investments in the Guggenheim Museum designed by Frank Gehry and in the cultural park gave a boost to the tourist traffic in the city and increased its revenues. However, the crisis showed that large-scale investment in physical infrastructure as the first step to reviving areas hit by industrial transformation cannot lead to long-term sustainable or stable growth. (Although the author does not explain in detail, in such cases demand on the part of local residents is not adequate to maintain the new services, and as such their use and revenues from tourism do not always provide compensation. In addition, cities often finance large-scale investments from debt, which exerts pressure on stable operations.) In summary, the revival of cities based on creativity can only become a reality if its conditions are also present in terms of the culture of institutional operation and in the people themselves.

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INVESTMENTS VS. WORK CULTURE The characteristics of cultural and creative industries are significantly different from the work culture and activities experienced in the past. In his theory developed in the 1980s, Landry defined the development of creative cities that contribute to progress in human development as a result of a process where former physical work and jobs are gradually replaced by activities that are based on human creativity and knowledge, with an increase in the degree of qualifications of young people. Simultaneously, the constructed environment of municipalities also changes. Former plants and power plants are replaced by lofts and cultural and creative industrial centres. Florida identified three key factors in the creative transformation of cities (the 3T model): talent, tolerance and technology. The characteristics of cultural and creative industries are significantly different from the work culture and activities experienced in the past. Forms of self-employment, primarily micro enterprises, are the most important features of creative

Guggenheim Museum, Bilbao 124

and cultural sectors. Based on the nature of this sector, the uncertainty factor is high, and it can only be developed in a social environment where communities have high cultural competencies and tolerance. Although in the past numerous costly investments were implemented to physically rehabilitate cities, social changes reflect slower dynamism. This is especially true for the developments in demand for cultural services as a demand factor â&#x20AC;&#x201C; i.e., the transformation of consumption patterns and the development of internal demand for new technologyintensive services. The development of human resources (individuals) and social environment (communities) is the greatest challenge when bridging the gap between vision and reality. The development of such social capacities is the key factor of convergence in transforming regions and areas struck with poverty. The main message of the article by Bendyk is that the first step towards creative cities is the development of demand for culture and creative services that exist within it.

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7 INDICATORS OF AN ADVANCED CITY Edited by: SĂĄra Farkas

Cities and towns are especially important in the development and growth of the global economy. They carry advantages such as more job opportunities and more effective public services, and the residents of towns often have better health conditions, too. These days, however, there is no direct linear correlation between an increase in the ratio of urban residents and the economic output of countries. The conditions of quality growth are based on much more divergent factors. The identification of factors that balance and catalyse development and the ranking of municipalities accordingly is a research topic addressed by an increasing number of research institutes and international organisations.

According to the estimates of international organisations, with special regard to the UN World Urbanisation Prospects report, the ratio of the population living in urban areas will increase from 54% to 66% by 2050. The development and operational system, not to mention the social conditions, of urban centers, including Budapest will face new challenges as a result of this growth. As globalisation processes progress, more fierce competition will develop between such regions, primarily for investments and qualified workforces. Apart from the internal challenges affecting operations, urban regions must also face the challenges of international processes. The economic and energy efficiency of the system of operations, the quality of decisions and governance, and an accepting and integrating social environment are key factors for providing the conditions for quality growth and performance in a global economic environment. That is why a new indicator needs to be defined for the complex development objectives of municipalities, one that interprets development in accordance with several criteria, so a particular city can be positioned in the flow of global processes on an international scale.

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From the early 2000s, increasingly complex indicators measuring the development and competitiveness of towns have been developed, most of which examine the liveability and sustainability of towns. The international rankings formed from such indicators reflect not only the general economic and population data (e.g., density of population, GDP), but also the complex global competitive position of a town. It is a general trend that, over the last 3 years, the competitiveness of European cities has been deteriorating (especially in the cases of Copenhagen, Helsinki and Stockholm). They are falling back in the ranking of the most advanced cities of the world, while the cities in Japan and Australia are improving their positions in such comparisons. Such emerging cities include Melbourne, Sydney, Tokyo and Fukuoka. Among European cities, primarily the positions of Berlin and Munich are improving, but Vienna has also achieved remarkable results and has maintained its leading edge in terms of liveability and sustainability. Budapestâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s positions in the international rankings are the best in innovation, quality of life and liveability. In terms of those criteria, it ranks among the most advanced 30% in general.

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â&#x20AC;&#x153;These days more than half (54%) of the population of the Earth live in urban areas. By 2050, two out of every three people will live in cities.â&#x20AC;? 129

PLACES AS METAPHORS OF LIVEABILITY The measurement of the progress of citiesand their relative position in global competition (rankings) is increasingly based upon complex analyses, in the course of which economic development indicators are supplemented with various environmental and social data. The position of cities in terms of liveability often appears as a separate factor in the selection process of multinational companies when they must decide upon questions of geographic expansion and geo-strategy.

Consequently, cities will often use new and complex indicator-based alternative growth as a policy-shaping tool and – judging from the image they wish to inspire with symbolic logos – as a brand building instrument as well. These indicators help local decision-makers prepare for development projects and to determine the direction of future development and growth strategies. The list of indicators below reflects the most important factors when measuring the complex development of cities in an international comparison:

KEYS TO SUCCESSFUL DEVELOPMENT AND INVESTMENT • quality and dynamism of networks • productivity increase and competitiveness, reflected in economic indicators • social progress • health environment status and method of utilisation of resources • social and territorial distribution of income • welfare level of population • application of indicators measuring the above factors • integration of indicators into the urban development strategy-forming process More focused and regionally meaningful indicators should be used to assess social progress, because they reflect a more substantiated picture than a national approach to the same processes. All in all, the majority of indicators identify and measure the quality of life, which is the most important component of a liveable environment.

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BUDAPEST AS REFLECTED IN INDICATORS On a global scale, the relative position of Budapest is the best in innovation, quality of life and liveability. It belongs to the most advanced 30 per cent in rankings that focus on these factors. The role of the capital city in the economy is outstanding, as Budapest represents Hungary in the international business site decisions of many large companies. As such, the position and assessment of Budapest in international assessments is relevant for the competitiveness of the whole country. Budapest achieved its best position in the ranking by Global Innovation Cities index, where it occupies the 64th place out of the 445 cities under review. The global list is led by San Francisco, New York and London. In the Central European region, only Vienna and Prague are ranked higher than Budapest. On the basis of the position achieved in the various ranking orders, Budapest also has favourable characteristics in terms of competitiveness, living expenses and prosperity. In most of these surveys, the capital city’s good competitive position stems from its infrastructure.

MONOCLE QUALITY OF LIFE INDEX

“FLEXIBLE CITIES” PROGRAMME

The purpose of Monocle is to describe the quality of cities on the basis of available leisure activities and community experiences. Thus, it supplements the more traditional quality of life indicators measurable on a more objective basis. That is why recreation and a buoyant night and cultural life are important factors in the ranking. It is one of the few indices that does not rely on statistical indicators only, but also uses subjective factors that are based on opinions. It also works with indicators such as quality, education and health, the number of sunny hours, average temperature, social tolerance, cost and quality of public transport, crime rate, “24hour lifestyle,” accessibility of green areas and the freedom of launching businesses. The indicator also looks at how easy it is to buy drinks after 1 a.m. Monocle has published its analysis of the 25 most liveable cities annually since 2007.

In the 21st century, municipalities face a number of new risks: natural disasters, terrorist actions, virtual attacks and financial crises. Cities must prepare themselves for the century of changes. In 2013, the Rockefeller Foundation agreed to select, within a three year period, 100 cities that have demonstrated innovative style and exemplary change management practices, as well as active partner relations in order to involve stakeholders in the urban development processes. The selected cities receive support in the form of USD 100 million from the foundation, as well as assistance in developing a flexibility strategy. To date, the foundation has selected 67 of the 100 cities. Consequently, the ranking order of the Rockefeller Foundation is a list of those they support – i.e., the club of flexible cities.

KRAFT INDEX The primary objective of the Hungarian KRAFT index is to present the pace of development and creativity potential of a region, as well as the opportunities stemming from the co-operation of regional actors. The study constituting the basis of the index was written by sociologist and historian Ferenc Miszlivetz and the researchers of the Institute of Social and Europe Studies Foundation (ISES). The multi-variable index looks at three main factors: creativity and innovation potential, social and network capital, and sustainability potential. In addition, its observations are also supplemented with “soft” factors such as willingness to co-operate, level of confidence, knowledge transfer and collective competencies of regional actors. The “Creative City - Sustainable Region” West Pannon regional development concept, prepared with the KRAFT index, was supported by a government resolution and measures.

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CITY PROSPERITY INDEX 2012/2013 WIEN HELSINKI OSLO DUBLIN COPENHAGEN

BUDAPEST

urban prosperity measurement OBJECTIVE

WHAT IS MEASURED

productivity, quality of life infrastructure, environmental sustainability equality, social inclusion

UN-HABITAT WHO PREPARES IT

COPENHAGEN STOCKHOLM OSLO WIEN AMSTERDAM

BUDAPEST

presentation and encouragement of the sustainability of the urban environment OBJECTIVE

WHAT IS MEASURED

WHO PREPARES IT

carbon dioxide emission, energy consumption, buildings, transport, water, waste and area utilisation air quality, environmental policy

based on commission by Siemens (CSR) Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

GLOBAL LIVEABILITY INDEX 2014 MELBOURNE HELSINKI OSLO DUBLIN COPENHAGEN

BUDAPEST

to identify the cities offering the best and worst living conditions in the world OBJECTIVE

stability (security), health, culture and environment, education, infrastructure WHAT IS MEASURED

Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) WHO PREPARES IT

SPATIALLY ADJUSTED LIVEABILITY INDEX 2012 HONG KONG AMSTERDAM OSAKA PARIS SYDNEY

BUDAPEST

to classify towns based on their spatial character OBJECTIVE

WHAT IS MEASURED

extension of the traditional liveability indices to the unique spatial character of cities (e.g., accessibility of green areas, spread of cities, prevalence of a car dependent lifestyle, number of world heritage sites)

Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) WHO PREPARES IT

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25 MOST LIVEABLE CITIES

The Monocle Quality of Life Survey 2015, edited by Sára Farkas

London-based Monocle magazine has been publishing its annual rankings of the most liveable cities since 2007, presenting the 25 cities that come out as best in the global Quality of Life survey. Copenhagen topped the list for years; however, in 2015, Monocle added new metrics such as development of dwellers’ personal relationships to their existing range of metrics including sustainability and liveable environment, in order to measure the possibilities of a “24-hour lifestyle” and of spending time after work as freely as possible. This is how Tokyo, an East Asian city with a population of 13.4 million, rose to the top of the list.

The purpose of Monocle’s survey was to highlight 25 cities where the best balance was struck between organising community life and providing the conditions for community activity and mobility. The uniqueness of Monocle’s index lies in the methodology used, which includes certain “on-demand” criteria to explore the user-friendliness of a city from its dwellers’ aspects, in addition to objective factors. WHAT MAKES A CITY LIVEABLE? In 2015, the magazine further developed its concept of a liveable city, where joining AkzoNobel’s “Human Cities” initiative brought about considerable progress. According to its mission, AkzoNobel helps cities to become more inspiring, energetic and lively places for their inhabitants. Monocle’s concept of a Liveable City points to a harmony between old and new, as well as the diversity of an organically grown city, instead of excessive planning of the physical environment. Moreover, it emphasizes diverse stylistic features of buildings regarding style and height, which concurrently represent key factors concerning the uniqueness and lovability of places. Related to the built environment, the concept calls attention to a conscious selection

of colours in a city, as well as their positive effect on the inhabitants, with examples seen in Bergamo or in Portofino on the shore of the Ligurian Sea. In line with the conceptual changes, significant modifications were adopted in the methodology of the index through the integration of 22 new metrics in surveying the criteria of liveability.

THE DEVELOPMENT TRAP With their list, Monocle also emphasizes the fact that the economic situation of a city is not necessarily in line with its liveability. An example is Greece, where the city of Athens, despite its critical economic situation, keeps providing high quality living conditions, thanks to its great beaches and unparalleled surroundings. Another example is the city of Porto, where Mayor Rui Moreira launched considerable processes of rehabilitation under his campaign, in the face of the highly limited financing situation prevailing in the city. Primarily, these processes aim at transforming prime-location residential properties in the city into social rental housing in order to remedy the poor housing situation, which considerably influences the quality of life for the inhabitants.

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Between 2007 and 2014, the complex index underlying the ranking consisted of core indicators that defined the liveability of a city both subjectively and objectively, such as the number of murders, the number of burglaries and the hours of sunshine. In the complex index, these factors are combined with Monocle’s particular criteria of liveability – including, for instance, the size and accessibility of green areas, the commitment to culture, the number of electric car charging points and the degree of difficulty in launching new businesses. Moreover, the assessment includes a test survey for networks of high-street businesses to evaluate independent service providers compared to franchise chains, with a particular

of launching a business and the possibilities of free urban cycling. Moreover, the new methodology also highlights the extent of global connectedness (the possibility and freedom of movement), measuring the role of the city in the international air traffic network (number of connections). Furthermore, indicators such as the number of outdoors seats in the city and the local media situation were also integrated. Another important trend in the updated index, adopted from 2015, was a shift of emphasis to indicators describing more dynamic changes, although the previous method of evaluating the characteristics of business infrastructure remained unchanged. In addition to network connectedness, it involves focus-

focus on small independent bookshops.

ing on developing inhabitants’ personal relationships, which can be measured in terms of creating possibilities for a “24-hour lifestyle” – the highest possible degree of freedom for spending time beyond work, which in turn can be described at the level of fundamental indicators such as length of opening hours of commercial, catering and cultural premises. Another new element that describes more frequent changes is that the magazine uses a survey to examine the average cost of living in the cities, as well as the costs of a cup of coffee, wine and a lunch of adequate quality. An interesting element is that the new methodology also includes an assessment of opportunities for regular swimming and bathing in the cities as a factor contributing to the quality of life.

In the ninth year following the publication of the index, methodological innovations were adopted, which, in part, triggered the significant changes seen in the city rankings. The new approach was brought about by demands from city users – such as opinions reported by Australians, stating that the health and safety regulations of the government and regional government agencies have started acting as restrictive factors on everyday life. Having adopted these changes, the Monocle’s liveability index no longer measures just the use of cities, but also points out the degree of freedom offered by them – including varied utilisation of time spent alone, the administrative burdens

TOKYO IS THE NEW COPENHAGEN In June 2015, Monocle magazine published a ranking of the 25 most liveable cities in the world. It is an honour to be listed at all, but a number of significant modifications were made in comparison with the previous year’s ranking.

TOKYO (1/25)

COPENHAGEN (10/25)

CAUSES: changes in the methodology | higher level of prices | costs of living intensifying social conflicts

10 8 6 4 4

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Berlin (3/25) Vancouver (7/25) Sydney (5/25) Vienna (4/25) Lisbon (18/25)

6 5 5 5

Hong Kong (19/25) Kyoto (14/25) Auckland (17/25) Portland (25/25) NEW ENTRANT Geneva (22/25)

WHY COPENHAGEN? - A COMPETITION AMONG URBAN CONCEPTS Monocle's index clearly reveals that the leading global metropolitan areas have completely different understandings of the set of criteria applicable to the creation of community experience. Since the 1970s, Copenhagen has been focusing on the criteria of ergonomics and environmental psychology applied to community spaces in sustainable and human-centred cities, as established by Jan Gehl, consciously controlling the impact of the physical environment on human behaviour. Known as the most populated metropolitan area in the world, Tokyo emphasises freedom of activities, irrespective of the time of day, thus freeing community encounters and experiences from restrictions in time. There is a difference in terms of creating harmony between the spatial and temporal connections of community experiences. Copenhagen primarily concentrates on open spaces and transitional spaces, overlooking the street front of buildings, as well as “soft edges”. Tokyo, however, interprets connectivity in the context of interior spaces, the system of cultural institutions, commercial sites, bars and restaurants. Although the interior spaces are primarily used for economic functions, they also double as community areas to provide more services and a better consumer experience, though visits are restricted in time and coupled with higher costs. In 2015, a shift was seen in Monocle’s index measuring urban quality of life toward more focus on the support of a “24-hour lifestyle”. A greater emphasis

is placed on a higher degree of freedom in terms of movement in global space and consumption extended in time. For this reason, global connectedness by air (the role of a hub), and the availability of cultural, catering, sports and other recreational facilities in time are also represented in the complex index. For Budapest, Monocle’s renewed index offers a benchmark for creating the conditions for a lifestyle of involvement in global processes at a personal level, while we should take into account that the societies of European cities have different cultural attitudes in comparison with their competitors on other continents, and they interpret community experiences and events independent of consumption. In European standards, the “consumption for community purposes” implied by the current index should not be seen as a condition for community development. The capability of society’s self-organisation and autonomy, as well as a traditional spirit of enterprise, constitutes a crucial distinctive mark for European societies. For Hungary, these factors represent major breakout points in creating higher level competitiveness. The development of creativity-based and knowledge-intensive sectors in the 21st century offer a peculiar urban structure. This is why cities driven by innovation and creativity, which represent the basis of growth instead of consumption, may also experience viable social progress in the long run. Instead of metropolitan areas populated by millions, cities of a more human scale also support communities irrespective of consumption. The concept seen in Copenhagen offers a more sustainable development path in this respect.

Koppenhága

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TOPPING MONOCLEâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S LIST TOKYO Being a global city, its key feature is to offer high quality of life both for inhabitants and visitors, setting an example for London and New York. Tokyo, which is inhabited by 13.4 million people, rose to be the most liveable city in the world through its cleanliness, its tolerance and politeness to foreigners, the reasonable prices and punctuality of community transport, and the high quality and good value of eating facilities. Despite being densely populated, the city sets a worthy example of peaceful coexistence for people despite close proximity and large masses, insofar as Tokyo is one of safest cities in the world. With that feature, the metropolis has established the Tokyo paradox: in spite of its breathtaking dimensions, the city is capable of creating a feeling of peace and quiet for its inhabitants. In terms of liveability, the price level is also a crucial factor. The Japanese capital traditionally ranks high in that respect. In Mercerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s cost of living ranking, Tokyo held the 11th place out of 207 cities evaluated, meaning that it remains in the group of most expensive cities in the world, which may hinder its development in the long term.

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VIENNA AThe city has undergone considerable development in the past decade, visible at various levels in urban life. Carried out in the form of a strategy-based series of comprehensive urban planning interventions, the renewal affected the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s infrastructure (a newly-built main railway station was opened in Vienna in October 2014), the business environment, cultural services and events (particularly with respect to the world-famous Design Week of Vienna). Monocle highlighted civic responsibility as the key merit of the city, which is the most precious value in Europe. Moreover, the city offers a sustainable high quality of life: Two-thirds of the flats in Vienna are subject to regulations on rentals, which prevents rocketing rental fees, while encouraging the middle class to remain in the city centre. Fifty-one per cent 140

of the city is operated as a green area, with pebbled banks and impressive properties overlooking the waterfront at a length of 8 km along the Danube. Meanwhile, Vienna is the fastest-growing urban area in the European Union. With a population of 1.8 million (measured in 2014), is has developed into the second largest city in the German-speaking area. Of the foreigners who settle here to work, a considerable portion are active in knowledge-intensive sectors, with particular regard to design, culture, the government sector and biotechnology. Population growth is offset by developments in transport and increased residential capacities. As an element of the latter, a new part of the city is being developing under the name Seestadt Aspern, situated between Vienna and the airport.

TOPPING MONOCLEâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S LIST

BERLIN Despite the fact that the Berlin-Brandenburg airport, which was first planned to be completed by 2011, then by 2012, has not yet opened (generating considerable political conflicts), the city keeps offering improved living conditions for its inhabitants. The year 2014, when Mayor Michael MĂźller was inaugurated, replacing Klaus Wowerei after 13 years in office, represents the dawn of a new era for Berlin. The new leader used to work as an urban development director in Berlin, and he now regards social housing and opening the new airport as his key assignments.

Another new development currently underway is the foundation of a new cultural centre in the city, the Stadtschloss investment, which is being constructed by rehabilitating the former parliament building of East Germany. Moreover, another outstanding merit of the city is that the price level of Berlin remains low despite the proliferation of luxury properties along the riverbank areas of the former Berlin Wall and the fast-paced processes of gentrification seen in the residential areas of the city.

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A capital of cyclists, green roofs and innovations:

COPENHAGEN Authors: Júlia Gutpintér, Sára Farkas

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COPENHAGEN is one of the most liveable and greenest cities in the world. This is due to consistent urban planning, excellent transport facilities, a wide range of jobs and high standards of social benefits, among other factors. This is supported by various surveys. In the Mercer Quality of Living survey, it was the ninth most liveable city in 2015. It occupied the tenth place in Monocle magazine’s Quality of Life survey in 2015, and it topped the “European Green City Index” list in 2010, which is measured cooperatively by Siemens and the Economist Intelligence Unit, mostly taking environmental performance into consideration. You may ask, “To what does Denmark owe these qualifications?” Let us take a look.

THE FINGERPLAN Looking back to an impressive tradition, the FingerPlan is a successful urban planning model that has been defining the physical framework of development in and around Copenhagen since 1947. After World War II, the population of Copenhagen began to grow dynamically, as did the city’s territory, which was about to become uncontrollable. After years of foundational work, two Danish architects and urban planners, Peter Bredsdorff and Sten Eiler Rasmussen, came up with the FingerPlan. The model likened the city and its future area of growth to a hand, where the palm represented the existing city centre of the time, and the fingers represented the peripheral urban areas that extend from city radially in five directions. The concept was to follow the radial model when developing a transport infrastructure. The model was centred around a concept that required the wedges between the fingers to be left as unbuilt green areas. Initially, the plan worked through the voluntary cooperation of three counties and 22 municipalities, and it has faced a number of challenged during the years. It was also tested by the processes of urban development and frequently changing legal and institutional frameworks. In spite of all the above, the plan has represented the basis of urban planning in Copenhagen for 70 years now. The currently effective FingerPlan of 2014 covers 34 municipalities in the territory of Greater Copenhagen, with unchanged categories. Besides the inner city, the peripheral fingers and the green wedges, it also incorporates the remaining areas of Greater Copenhagen. Owing to consistent enforcement of the plan, the city area continued to grow in a controlled way, avoiding excessive expansion, as well as irrationality and chaos in transport.

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The green areas have been preserved and are easily accessible to all. On the whole, the city structure that has developed contributes to Copenhagen’s capability of becoming one of the greenest and most liveable cities in the world. A REGIONAL CENTRE: COPENHAGEN Copenhagen is the economic and financial centre of Denmark, but as a part of the Öresund Region, it also holds a leading position in Scandinavia and the Baltic region. Similar to other developed countries, the economy of Copenhagen is dominated by services, but the quaternary sector has also become a significant segment of the city’s economy. The importance of the role played by this sector in the economy is indicated by tertiary education that excels in terms of both quantity and quality. The city has over 94,000 students in tertiary education. The largest internationally recognised institution of higher education is the University of Copenhagen, which teams up with the best in Europe. According to the 2015 QS ranking, it is the 22nd best university in Europe, while holding a similar (24th) position globally in terms of life sciences and medical sciences. The latter is no accident, as life sciences and health sciences, pharmaceutical research and manufacturing, as well as biotechnology, are in an outstanding position in the research and development activities pursued in the region. It appears higher education and the market sector are in harmony. Significant Danish biotechnological companies include Novo Nordisk and Lundbeck – both ranking among the 50 largest pharmaceutical companies globally – with the official headquarters of both in the city. Copenhagen and its region accommodate the Danish and Scandinavian head offices of a number of international

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THE TOP 5 KEYS TO SUCCESS IN COPENHAGEN: 1. Bold reforms, reasonable alternatives. 2. A careful assessment of local needs before planning (Public Life Survey Method). The essence of its philosophy is that design is intended to serve people (and not the other way round). 3. Development of useful, multifunctional and traversable spaces. 4. Reasonably limited vehicle traffic. 5. Creation of superior public spaces around community transport stations (in part as a way to encourage the use of community transport).

port, COPENHAGEN 146

A CAPITAL OF CYCLISTS, GREEN ROOFS AND INNOVATIONS: COPENHAGEN

pharmaceutical and biotechnological companies (Ferring Pharmaceuticals, Bavarian Nordic). This represented the basis for founding the Medicon Valley Cluster in a cooperation program between Denmark and Sweden in 1995. It unites the biotechnological, pharmaceutical and med-tech companies of the region, with a view to further reinforcing the positions of the region in these fields. The companies within the cluster employ approximately 40,000 people in the field of life sciences. The cluster incorporates 7 scientific-industrial parks, 10 business incubators, 28 hospitals, 15 universities and 300 research and development companies.

In achieving these goals, Copenhagen plays a crucial role by virtue of its offshore Middelgrunden wind farm, accommodating 20 wind turbines, each with a performance of 2 MW. It would be sufficient to cover 3% of Copenhagen’s power consumption, but it is fed to the mains and transmitted to various parts of the country. The project “Green Roofs in Copenhagen” was launched in 2008 – initially for the management of a sewage treatment plan and rainwater treatment. Its main goal was to cover the roofs of buildings with vegetation, which considerably aids in the adaptation to climate change. In order to achieve actual success, wider and more conscious use of green roofs was necessary, for which the most efficient method

The Öresund Region, which embraces Greater Copenhagen and crosses the border to include certain parts of South Sweden, accommodates the largest IT cluster in Scandinavia with over 100,000 employees. Maritime transport is also an outstanding segment. The world’s largest shipping company, Maersk, has its headquarters in Copenhagen. The R&D potential is capitalised not only in the field of biotechnology or IT, but also in the field of clean tech. According to an OECD study, one of the engines of growth in the Copenhagen region since the second half of the 2000s has been the clean tech sector, which successfully weathered the economic crisis. In the territory of Greater Copenhagen, as many as 34,000 persons were employed in the segment in 2011. In Denmark a special element has been incorporated in the tax system in order to motivate R&D. Foreign researchers and experts temporarily settling in Denmark are eligible for a preferential tax rate of 25% for three years.

was offered through regulations.

GREEN SAILS IN THE INNER CITY Denmark has set ambitious goals in the field of utilising renewable sources of energy. The planned ratio of offshore wind power (at sea) is to be increased to 50% by 2030.

At the 15th UN conference on climate change (COP 15), the issue of using green roofs was raised. Copenhagen grabbed the opportunity to host the conference in 2009, and it proposed green roofs as a possible solution to the challenges of climate change. Subsequently, the section on green roofs was successfully incorporated in the Climate Plan, emphasizing the link between green roofs and rainwater treatment, which is expected to result in better precipitation management in the future. Furthermore, it is also important that the measure contributes to creating a greener city, which concurrently reduces the effects of the urban heat island phenomenon. In the Climate Plan, a time interval was specified for the implementation of the green roof initiative, which must also be set as a requirement in the Urban Development Plan. In the past few years, a number of initiatives were adopted by the city relating to green roofs. The topic has been added to the urban development plan, to the Climate Plan and to local plans, and a manual has been produced on how to create an environment for buildings.

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THE BREWERY EXPERIMENT Carlsberg City, Copenhagen The recently closed Carlsberg brewery has accommodated an unparalleled experiment in urban planning. Cultural institutions were set up in the red brick buildings on its 33-hectare area, as well as 3,000 new flats. When the project was launched, the space was opened to the general public, allowing people to walk through and discover the abandoned brewery. In the meantime, architects observed the spontaneous meeting points, activities and favourite routes, which helped them find locations for the various buildings. This new example of functionalism on a human scale will also serve as a social melting pot, since various arrangements will be available for owning and renting flats here. For those with lower incomes, flats will be available at a minimal rent, and the inhabitants will be expected to carry out security and caretaker services in the quarter to compensate for the rent reduction.

Carlsberg Brewery, Copenhagen 148

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GREEN ROOF POLICY IN THE 2012 URBAN DEVELOPMENT PLAN Today, in Copenhagen, it is mandatory to cover the roofs of all new buildings, provided they slope less than 30 degrees, with vegetation. If an older roof needs renovation, and the owner of the building receives financial support from the city, the roof must be covered with plants (small trees, bushes, moss, herbs or grasses). The network of institutions plays a huge role in the propagation of green roofs. The roles of communities, local independent environmental agencies and institutions of public administration are paramount at the local level. At the national level, cooperation betwen institutions providing knowledge, technology and consultation (companies, universities, etc.) is indispensable in propagating technological and market-based innovation. In an international context, the key roles are filled by international green roof associations such as IGRA, GRHC and Living Roof, as well as universities engaged in growing green roofs. CYCLISTS’ PARADISE Transport in Copenhagen is determined by the principle laid down as early as the first FingerPlan, whereby no new building above the size of 1,500 m2 can be located farther than 600 metres from a community transport connection. The transport infrastructure of Copenhagen is highly developed, while it is exposed to growing loads due to increased commuting and use. Similar to other developed metropolises, the ratio of private motorized transport is high, which, in turn, is largely offset by an outstanding ratio those who cycle to work. Urban cycling functions so well in Copenhagen that a word was coined to denote the process whereby other cities may become similar to Copenhagen. The word is “Copenhagen-ize,” which also conveys a brand an image of the city as being liveable, innovative and sustainable. Yet, becoming a notion was still not enough for the city. A comprehensive goal of the cyclist strategy for 2011-2025 is for Copenhagen to become the best cycling city in the world.

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SCIENCE CITY NORTH (2011-2020) Science City North is a development plan jointly created by the city of Copenhagen, the University of Copenhagen and the University of Denmark. The area is one of the largest centres of theoretical and applied research in education, particularly in terms of the pharmaceutical industry and natural sciences. Five different clusters are present, and the region will be the target of a number of development and investment projects. The goal is to set up a quarter in the physical and non-physical sense to connect the city, science and business life. For this goal, the key objectives of the programme are the following: • an area of 200.000 m2 to be provided to businesses in the vicinity of scientific institutions. Business incubators to be established. Start-up companies and relocated units of existing companies are equally welcome. • new residential facilities to be established to attract young, qualified foreign labour and students (40.000 m2 of new flats). • spaces of knowledge transfer need to be developed. These will be buildings where science institutions and business actors can share their experiences and knowledge, setting up “knowledge plazas” (conference rooms, libraries, book cafés, centres for international communities, premises for experimental education, canteens, etc.). • new green areas to be created alongside infrastructure development to integrate scientific industrial areas into the fabric of the city.

The development is not regarded as an end in itself, but as an efficient means to develop an even more liveable, greener and completely CO2-neutral city. The developments for cyclists are focused primarily on reducing time spent travelling, on increasing the sense of safety and convenience, as well as on boosting cycling as a lifestyle and image.

•T he inhabitants of Copenhagen cycle 1.34 million kilometres per day. •4 5% of the inhabitants use their bicycles to get to work, but the city management is committed to increasing the ratio. •C yclist infrastructure is outstanding, both in terms of quantity and quality. The length of bicycle routes is 454 km •A ccording to estimations of the Capital City Region management, the inhabitants of Copenhagen need one million days of sick leave less per year, owing to cycling.

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photo: Miklรณs Vargha

TINA SAABY: COPENHAGEN â&#x20AC;&#x201C; A CITY FOR PEOPLE Tina Saaby, chief architect of Copenhagen, held a presentation in Brain Bar Budapest, as a guest of PAGEO

THE RULE OF 160 CM When planning our cities, we have to focus on how we can find the balance between top-down and bottomup. I also feel that, in the middle, there is us, human beings, and that is also the same when we talk about cities. It is about the people that are there. For us, as urban planners and architects, everything has to deal with people, and it has to deal with how we can get eye-contact with each other. So, in a way, it is very, very simple to be an urban planner, because all we have to know is that eye-contact is 1.60, when we are standing, and 1.20, when sitting. If we are aware of that, we can build very, very good cities. And sometimes it is strange that it is so difficult to remember those two numbers. If we go and put it into reality, this knowledge about 1.60 and 1.20, we can look at reality being aware of that. We are aware of how we make the city safe and how we give people the opportunity to make eyecontact. There is a Danish architect, Jan Gehl, and probably many of you urbanist people know about him. He talked much about cities and urban planners being aware of human behaviour. He knows much about distance, what distance we have to have between people before we smell them, before we can sense them, before we can listen to them. He is aware that people are human animals that will go and make

love and eat and fight and do many other human activities. We can try to put that into urban planning when we design our cities. WITHOUT PEOPLE THERE IS NO CITY We have this vision in Copenhagen that urban life is people. This is a strategy that our politicians decided in 2009, so it is a political document stating that urban life is people, and we as administrators have to be aware of how we can create a good city for people. So all I am doing in my daily routine is staying aware of 1.60 and 1.20, as well as the fact that people are human animals, so that is my everyday life. It is a strategy that has three very precise goals. 1) The first goal is that we say we want urban life for all, which means that we need a vast array of programming in the city. We need many different kinds of architecture in the city. 2) We also have a second goal, stating that we want more people to walk more, and the goal is to increase the amount of pedestrians by 20% within 5 years. This strategy will end at the end of this year, and I can tell you that we succeeded in those goals. We are making a new strategy where we are building on the knowledge we have accumulated over those 5 years. 3) The third goal is that we want more people to stay

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longer, also stating here that residents of Copenhagen will spend 20% more time in urban space than they did in 2010. EVERYDAY WE EXPERIMENT We go out every year and make an urban plan account. Then, we present these accounts to our politicians. That way, we know if we are going to achieve the goal, or if they have to make some new initiatives. But we also have much that we have learned that we need to implement the day after we acquire the knowledge. When we go out to do this data collecting, we go and count pedestrians in the streets, we go and interview many different people in different ways, and we have plenty of data that we collect in the interview. One of the things that we can see when we talk to people is that they are very happy about the city and urban life. What they say every year is that they need more landscape and they need more quiet spaces. What is so interesting then, as an urban planner, is that I can implement that in the project the day after I acquire this knowledge. So this focusing on urban life is also a way of focusing on a very short-term planning method. It does not mean that we do not have long-term planning methods as well, but focusing on changing the city day by day is a very interesting tool, and it is also a new way of looking at planning. So being aware of people having different interests and wanting more quiet spaces within the dynamic city is very good knowledge. Let me show through some examples how I and forty thousand of my colleagues use this knowledge. Our climate plan is an initiative stating that we want to be CO2 neutral by 2025, but everything has to deal with the human instead of just being about technology. We focus on how can we create better life quality for the people and how people participate and take responsibility for being CO2 neutral. So the climate plan has a human-being focus, and much of it deals with green mobility. There is a bike strategy. The bike strategy focuses on how we can we set off – by taking the bike, of course. Much of that has to deal with knowing and having the knowledge that being on a bike is to experience the city in slow motion. Experiencing the city in slow motion means that we can stop. We have eye-contact on a bike, so we can see each other. We can talk together. Sometimes we have many conflicts, but often we can solve the conflicts, because we are not sitting in the car. We stand at a very short distance from each

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BOUNCING PLAYGROUNDS We have a special focus on playgrounds, and when we do not use standard playgrounds, we can actually see that people start to play together. So this is just 5 trampolines in Nyhavn in Copenhagen. What is interesting is that everyone starts to jump on those trampolines, which means that you stay out in urban space for longer periods, which was one of the goals of the strategy. So it is a different way to be outdoors, and in the end, it makes us stay out longer.

other, which means that we can solve the problems ourselves. This is a way that we collect the data about the bicycle strategy, but it is also the knowledge about data being part of acquiring knowledge about the city. So when you pass this big sign, we count how many people are cycling. What is interesting about that is also when we talk about humanity and people. Every time you pass this sign, you get happy. You can see you are a number, one of the people in society. So, in a way, it also does something good for the human being. There is a pedestrian strategy as well. When we get to site-specific planning, this is a plan of Copenhagen which covers one of the new areas in the city. Instead of saying that we want a car-free area, we say that we will set a priority for collective transport, and it can be easy. We make it easy for bikes, but we make it a little difficult for the cars to go around. So instead of saying that we do not want cars, we just try to implement a focus on the human and humanity by trying to make it a little difficult for cars and very easy for people on bikes. When we built one of the bridges in Copenhagen, we thought that 3000 people would pass over this bridge daily. What we find today is that we have 12,000 people that can pass over this bridge on bicycle. That is interesting, because, previously, all those people or most of them were taking cars if they wanted to get from A to B in Copenhagen. By making it easy to take the bike, it could take only 10 minutes to go to Örsted in Copenhagen, while it takes 25 minutes to go by car. People, of course, choose to take the bicycle. So this is a way of focusing on people. We also have an app that asks all residents of Copenhagen to provide knowledge about the city. So, if they see something that is wrong – it could be a hole in the street or something they wish to do differently – they just send a note to the city administration, and then

TINA SAABY: COPENHAGEN – A CITY FOR PEOPLE

harbour, Copenhagen

we have to answer. What is interesting about this is that we gather plenty of knowledge that we did not have on our own, so people start to take responsibility by giving us the information that they see in the city. Also, it is a way of establishing a community in the city we occupy together. In our local planning, we also have this focus on people. You are not allowed to do anything that is private in the city of Copenhagen. So, when you make a new housing area, you are not allowed to put up signs saying: “private area”. You are not allowed to put up any fencing. This is one from Byk. This is a housing project by a Byk architect, and even though this is a private area and it is private housing, people can walk around like on small streets, and that is what we are trying to implement in all our projects. It is very important how a building meets the city. So when there is a client coming to the city, saying, “I want to build a new office building” or “I want to build a new housing building,” we start by saying, “That is interesting”. We start to say “yes” to that, but we start to discuss how your building can give something back to the city. So, in the local plan and the regulations, we are handling situations like this. We make the regulation about giving something back to the city and not the aesthetic part itself. So, in most of our plans, we make strategies that state, “Maybe there should be 25% transparency, and you are not allowed to put black glass or mirror glass in the window, because when you see so much black glass, you cannot look into this building, and that means you do not feel so invited, and you do not feel really comfortable.”

When we do neighbourhood improvement, we establish a secretariat out in the local area. The interesting part is talking with human beings, instead of sitting in my office, Every year, we single out a neighbourhood for improvement, and then we say to the people, “My colleagues, you have to go to the site, set up your office there, talk to the people and organise it from the bottom up as much as you can. Do it as though you are still in the city, but try to see if you can get and establish a local place, instead of something that we do in other places in the city.” So we put this office there, and they will be there and

THE HARBOUR In our surveys, we place more focus on how we can use the harbour as the biggest urban space in the city. We spend much time on making shortcuts, so people can walk along different routes, new routes that pass the harbour. Consequently, there are a number of pedestrian and bicycle paths and bridges that actually let us stay longer in urban space. That was another image I showed the other day. If I think back ten years, we would probably do gymnastics inside with the kids, but now what we see is that people actually start doing many everyday activities in outdoor spaces, if we create outdoor spaces that embrace that. And this is also a way of looking at the harbour, a place that everyone has the ability to access. Outdoors, at the harbour front, you cannot privatise anything. That is one of the main issues in the harbour strategy.

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stay there for 5 years, being a part of the local environment. Then, they will have plenty of – well, not plenty of, but some – money to design urban spaces. This is from Copenhagen. And in the same situation, we also have this programme that is half paid by the city and half paid by the state. It gives people a new green garden for free. We give money to the people, but they have to organise themselves, and it has to be based on democracy, where the people are part of the development, and they will also be the ones who will maintain the area themselves afterwards. So, this program is very much based on the people themselves, and it has to come from the people, what kind of needs they have in this area. We would like to create sunspaces, because people only stay there longer – especially in the Nordic countries, where it is a little colder than here. They need to have some sunlight. When we do a new street concept like this, we choose, of course, to focus on the bicycles, making broader bike lanes, but we also focus on where the sun is. By making this street and the pedestrian area broader on the sunny side, it actually turns out that people will stay longer, since there is more space to remain in. Co-creation is a new focus where we actually get people to take responsibility and to be a part of how we create the city together. We try to have early dialogues, so we invite all the architects and all the different stakeholders in the city before we start to do any planning. That makes us talk about what kind of city we want to have before someone starts to decide it. Last year, we started a new programme for establishing partnerships, so it is not only a partnership with professionals, but also with citizens. Once we had dinner with 2.600 people. This is one of the big streets in Copenhagen. It was organized in a partnership with many private individuals, so the city did not do that much. We just made it happen. We just allowed people to meet, so they could organize this kind of partnership. THERE IS NO IDEAL CITY? The knowledge of being in a new society, when we emerged from the Modern Period 20 years ago, what does that mean for the way that we are working? If we go back to the Modern Period, we had an idea that we, just as planners, could design the ideal city. So we had the idea, if we are doing it all ration-

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CULTURE OF YES Making the city happy is a strategy. One way that we tried was to establish a small secretariat, and the people working there had the vision that they should let many things happen in the city. So every time somebody called the city, they were not allowed to say “no”. They should always begin by saying, “Yes, that is a very good idea.” It might be a little complicated to have a permanent pink line in the pedestrian area, but if we could do it on a temporary basis, we could give you all the permits that you need. This focusing on a yes-culture is part of the way that all of us are thinking today. It is also a way of starting a new culture in the city administration. Temporary planning is a focus that we will pursue in every system – partially in the city, but also in the new areas. I am going back to talking about people. What we see when we are working with temporality is that we can actually let people take responsibility for themselves. We, as the city administration staff, do not get so nervous if people say it is just on a temporary basis. We do a little more experimenting, and we feel it is easier to give permission when they are temporary rather than if they are permanent. So it is also a way to try to focus on the people that are there.

ally, we would make the streets go very directly from A to B. If we just design the housing area in this place and the industrial area this place, we had the idea that everything would be perfect. We thought that if everybody lived under equal conditions, then everybody would succeed and have a very good life. What we know today is that it is more complicated. People are so different. There is not anything that is ideal. We do not have any ideal city; we do not have any ideal plan; we do not have any ideal husband; and we do not have any ideal kids. Everything is different from person to person, and by having this knowledge, I think that we will change the way we lead and organise our cities. So we have to be aware of having a more dynamic way of planning; we have to be aware of the human beings; we have to be aware that we are all different. In the Modern Period, we also had a focus on making things for human beings, but we had the idea

TINA SAABY: COPENHAGEN – A CITY FOR PEOPLE

that everybody was equal. I remember that when I was starting architecture, I saw some observations about the ideal woman, making food in the ideal kitchen. That led to a very beautiful kitchen design that we put into every apartment throughout the city. After that, we realised that we make food in different ways; therefore, kitchens should be designed in different ways. Having this knowledge, I think that we will go from thinking in terms of very fixed master plans to working more strategically at city administrations. We have to put forward more guidelines and visions and strategies, like the city life strategy that we have in Copenhagen, because it makes guidelines and shows

deal with that, because we also know there is not any ideal organisation, and the way we organise things will change from day to day and from year to year. So the last item is – and I feel this is a very big inspiration for me – about how we should work tomorrow, especially when we take the statement about human beings as the central component of our cities. And I have just read, Zygmunt Bauman, the great sociologist, said, “I think at the moment, if you think about making society better, you have to count mostly on this level of human integration. You architects and urbanists – that is all of us – should not consider yourselves as managers of humans. You should see yourselves as liberators, animators, inspirers who

a place to go instead of showing us very concretely how we should do it. It makes it more flexible and more dynamic, so we can change as easily as society is changing and as easily as everyday life is changing. What we have done in Copenhagen right now is that we have changed the organization. So if we go back years ago, we had an organisation where everybody was thinking in by-laws. There was someone thinking in parking strategy, someone that was doing the user enrollment, someone that was giving the building permits, someone focusing on the pedestrian; but they never talked together. So what we are trying today is to found a new organisation to see if we can

inspire people to do interesting things (themselves) and who help to develop their potential, which otherwise would be stifled.” So we, as human beings, are the basic components of cities, and we have to lead ourselves and have knowledge about ourselves and the way we behave in a totally different way than just five years ago, not to mention what we were doing 20 or 30 years back. One of the main things is that we have to understand the diversity of people, and that is why it is so difficult, because there are so many of us, and everyone is unique. It is difficult to understand the complexity that lies within that.

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BUD

Budapest Vision

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BUDA- PEST

Our capital city is often the subject of various international comparisons, and its exciting possibilities, along with the image of the city, serve as the basis of serious economic and investment decisions.

The significance of Budapest extends beyond its boundaries and labour catchment area. Being a global gate to the Carpathian Basin, the city significantly influences the development of the whole region. What roles should the Hungarian capital assume, and what positions should it seek to occupy? What are the social and environmental conditions it is expected to meet in order to manage those concentrated metropolitan tensions seen worldwide (transport, air pollution and social alienation)? How should the â&#x20AC;&#x153;milieu of Budapestâ&#x20AC;? become a medium that attracts innovations and knowledge like a magnet? And what is the shared unique character that is particular to Budapest?

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How can the development of the capital and its region contribute to achieving the set of goals targeted by the Hungarian economic policy? For all these, what Budapest needs is a strategic vision that unites not only economic policy, the central government and the local governments of Budapest and other affected areas, but also by the key actors in the market and the economy. It should be a strategy that an overwhelming majority of the citizens can identify with, particularly the most creative and active groups. An expert discussion paper was prepared by PAGEO Foundation, which is intended to contribute to the development of a strategy for

Budapest to seek answers to the questions posed above. The vision, which can be considered a treasury of ideas, lists options for the capital and its region, relying on novelties, as well as earlier and current concepts, strategies and international examples. In the following pages, a few excerpts of these are presented. IT IS LIVEABLE, BUT WHAT MAKES IT SO? Basic criteria of such a city are that it supports community; it is human-centred, safe and affordable; it pursues sustainable development policies; and it

strikes a balance between social, environmental and economic interests systemically and on a regional basis. A successful city, moreover, is smart. It builds a bridge using info-communication tools between economic development and social progress. It communicates with those using the city. Furthermore, it is environmentally aware. It manages its resources and cultural heritage in a fair way, preserves its values, builds a local economy coexisting with its rural surroundings, and creates identity and individuality. Moreover, they exhibit further soft factors, factors that are more difficult to point out in respect to competitiveness, such as creativity, the city usersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;

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According to Brad Feld, start-up communities are similar to medieval communities of “selfgoverning” guilds managed in compliance with their own rules. Start-up communities are open to all that wish to join and convey the following key message: “You have to give before receiving from the community.” For start-ups, social (and network) capital is crucial, and the start-up communities and colonies are groups with strong network effects. What can actually be gained as a result of this network effect (and what concurrently represents exiting proceedings and developments) is for a company to go public or be acquired by a large corporation. These enterprises have extensive information and contacts on a global scale, and they can easily relocate to other global cities for better conditions and circumstances.

high-level capability for innovation, their ability to develop new knowledge, the degree of their ability to cooperate and their confidence in each other.

number of further options are available for Budapest to increase its competitiveness on the basis of its internal properties. An effective step in this respect is when the capital city becomes a more active space of inspiration and community experiences by reshaping its public spaces and extending its events both in a physical and symbolic sense. Increased value in use and frequentation of the recreational areas and promenades connected to the Danube bank, as well as rehabilitation of centrally located brown-field areas on the river bank with good accessibility may be part of this process. It is also recommended that concentration of and close connections through networks between university campus areas, prospering research centres, start-up premises and institutions in charge of technology and knowledge transfer be ensured. The geographical vicinity and easy transferability among institutions related to research and development and tertiary education would largely facilitate innovative activities, as well as the establishment and maintenance of connections between the institutions. CATALYSTS

POWERFUL BUDAPEST Budapest fulfils an increasingly significant role in the innovation sector and in the creative industries at both a national level and a European level. It has a growing number of internationally recognised achievements, successful initiatives and start-up businesses, which primarily affect the IT sector, as well as medical and therapeutic technological and biotechnological activities. Approximately twothirds of research, development and innovation (R, D & I) expenditures are concentrated in the capital region. The phenomenon of concentration seen in the field of research and development is aptly illustrated by the fact that 20.828 of the country’s 36.945 researchers and developers worked in Budapest in 2011. Based on the innovative activities of companies operating in the Central Hungary region, the following segments are currently outstanding: information and communications; pharmaceuticals (on a national level, four-fifths of the companies carrying out innovative activities in the segment are present here); computers; and electronic and optical product manufacturing (four-fifths of the innovative companies operating in the segment are here). Besides a higher level of integration of R,D&I activities, a

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The economic environment and affordability, in addition to the properties of the region and the city structure, play a considerable role in supporting the course of intervention aimed at boosting the spirit of enterprise and innovation. For Budapest, the key points of economic growth lie in technology-intensive, knowledge-based enterprises, which is why the framework conditions for supporting and regulating enterprises in the knowledge-intensive segments (innovation and start-up ecosystem) must be established.

CONCENTRATION IN BUDAPEST: • 62% of R&D expenditures; • 39% of GDP; • 17% of the population.

BUDAPEST

International experience suggests that a competitive start-up and innovation ecosystem is basically built on four elements and their interactions: education and training, access to resources, tax and regulation, and a supportive urban (social and natural) environment. Some of the key elements are now available in Budapest (e.g., venture capital funds or various start-up contests). Some of them are being established; however, some segments are almost completely missing. As a result, it would yield considerable benefits in Budapest if the local governments continuously tracked the regional indicators of economic processes at the district level. Moreover, it is worth consciously encouraging thematic spaces of companies with a shared technological background and sectoral profile (e.g., tourism and catering, etc.) â&#x20AC;&#x201C; establishing the territorial conditions (premises) of economic development based on innovation, while considering the factors of selecting premises through knowledge of technologyintensive start-up businesses. This is because the innovation environment must include the quality attributes of the city environment: public services, consumption, and availability and diversity of products and services. It would be an intervention of key importance to regard Budapest as a single business destination at the level of macro-regions and handle it as a single brand through the tools of city marketing. An economy based on sharing and access is gaining ground all over Europe and the USA, and its impact is progressively detectable as it changes opportunities and means of shopping, eating, going to work and travel. The essence of the trend reversal is that community use and rental of services and products prevail, which results in more affordable conditions for many people. On the one hand, this trend of consumption relying on exchanges, rentals, favours and the access of multiple users was brought about by the economic crisis; on the other hand, it is due to the increasingly urgent handling of environmental problems and declining social relationships. The key driver of the acceleration of this trend is the spread of mobile technologies, online peer-to-peer networks and easier access to them. These facilitate possibilities for temporary or periodic rental services and assets that are not needed on a continuous basis or that are beyond the userâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s financial means. At the level of central and local governments, it is necessary to set up the scene, framework, regulation and a culture of cooperation for exploiting development facilities based on

sharing and aimed at affordability, not to mention boosting community activity. Such joint intervention to establish the scene involves the elimination of legal and infrastructural obstacles to the sharing of knowledge or property, simplification of procedures and administrative processes, and increased transparency and intelligibility (which leads to a higher level of confidence on the part of citizens and economic actors toward local government).

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In addition, the creative utilisation of unoccupied properties is important, similar to the framework regulation of property prices, which contributes to the preservation of diversity in services and consumers. An example is the system of capping rents, planned to be adopted in Germany in 2015, which allows no more than 10% higher initial rental fees in comparison with the typical rental fees seen when property managers or tenants change in parts of city (districts, quarters, settlements) that are in high demand. Further interventions to set the scenes may be a re-interpretation and re-establishment of the system of market halls and market culture (as an institutional culture) in order to encourage the consumption of varied, healthy, affordable and good-quality food. EFFECTIVENESS OF URBANISATION AND GROWTH AT THE CITY LEVEL The population density (as well as the closely related building density) fundamentally influences the costs of establishing and operating urban services. The population density of Budapest (3,230 people/km2), however, is regarded as low on a global scale and average on the scale of European cities. As a benefit of a reasonably planned city with higher population density and green areas, the use of cars and the CO2 emission may be reduced, and a higher population density coupled with smaller-sized flats on average also results in further energy savings.

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INNOVATIVE AND FAMILY-FRIENDLY BUDAPEST AThe development and prosperity of cities primarily depends on the people living there. This, in addition to infrastructural features in the traditional sense, calls for an increased ability for local society to renew itself, which concurrently calls for more openness to novelties, better acceptance capabilities, and a stronger consciousness and retention capability of the local community. This, however, is becoming more difficult, because cities today face a number of social challenges: poverty, unemployment and demographic challenges (migration, population increases or decreases), as well as growing inequalities in income, ethnic and socio-cultural conflicts, unhappiness and loneliness. In terms of social attributes, Budapest differs from the national average. These differences have a strong influence on the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s productivity and ability to renew. One of the most important elements of knowledge-based development and social progress is an adequate social environment. The capability of continuous learning and development and the unfolding of talent, creativity and knowledge is only possible in an environment where society is supportive and accepting. A key attribute of such societies is that failure is not necessarily regarded as a shame, and efforts made to perfect or develop a product or thought are recognised, similar to the development and testing of unconventional thinking. The most critical point, then, is to create a social medium that is supportive of creation. This is often where the differences in the success of emerging start-up ecosystems are rooted. Multiple contributing factors are needed for cities to become family-friendly. For instance, an adequate choice of values and a change in attitude (firm assumption of a stable local family policy and the related objectives, estimation of people undertaking to raise children, supporting and advertising familyfriendly examples, supporting the co-habitation of generations). Accessible transport and environment are also important (e.g., elimination of physical obstacles; clean environment in terms of air, public spaces, streets, playgrounds and community spaces; support of child-friendly alterations to condominiums; adequate organisation of traffic; and protection and expansion of green areas, developing their use and availability).

• The employment ratio is 57-58% in Budapest. (In Hungary, the average is 50-53%) • In the capital, the elderly population is more than double the number of children. (In Hungary, in 2011, the ratio was 117 elderly per 100 children, on average.) • The number of families decreased by 7% in Budapest between 2001 and 2011 • The crime rate dropped by 8.1% in Budapest between 2000 and 2010, the figure ofwhich is still above the national average.

In order to have a more content, more productive population, it is reasonable to set up a family-friendly system of institutions and services (e.g., child welfare and family-related services of the necessary quality and education; social and healthcare services with adequate capacity and fair access both geographically and in terms of time; sports facilities; and various prevention, screening and inoculation services). Moreover, family-friendly workplaces are worth continuing (flexible working hours, work from home, setting up the conditions of these), as well as helping women to return to work. The above-mentioned objectives call for urban planning, development planning, the establishment of regulations for construction, and a long-term attitude.

TAKE ACTION, BUDAPEST! Closing the gap between vision and reality calls for social changes, which take place at a considerably slower pace in comparison with the shaping of the built environment, so the textbooks say. Budapest, however, has proven a number of times that its population can move milestones and is capable of triggering historic change for common goals. Liveability and competitiveness of the capital city is just such a common goal, and the resources are available. It is time to act, Budapest!

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WHY DO WE CONSIDER BUDAPEST A GOOD PLACE?

Author: XY

How can Budapest outperform Dubai, Sydney, Vancouver, Rome or Paris? A number of travel magazines seek global answers to this question.

1. (Repeatedly after 2013) Budapest was elected the second best city by the readers of CondĂŠ Nast Traveller in 2015. The top-ranking Florence scored 86.53 points out of 100, while Budapest scored 86.09, outscorin Tokyo, Paris, London and Rome, among others.

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2. Two nights at a four-star hotel, a bottle of wine, a cocktail per person, a two-course dinner and the expense of a taxi to and from the airport, as well as the accommodation. These were the items considered by TripAdvisor, whose travellers evaluated Budapest as the best-value city in 2014.

According to Britain’s The Guardian, Élesztő Craft Beer Bar is among the best beer bars in Europe. In addition, the paper points out that Budapest (due to its ruin pubs and night bars) is the best party city in Europe, and Hungary is experiencing a revolution in craft beer as unique brews appear with no end in sight.

Budapest’s Margitsziget (Margaret Island) is presented by the Irish Times as the fifth best jogging site in the world, right behind Dublin, Los Angeles, London and Sydney. Besides the beauty of the Danube, the island and the scenery, the 5.350 m running track is praised by the evaluator.

The German Spiegel Online presented the spas of Budapest as No 1 in its listing of resorts in 2012. The special retractable roof structure of Gellért Spa was highlighted, as was the diversity and variety of programmes hosted in the Széchenyi and Rudas baths.

CNN Travel voted the Market Hall at Fővám Square the best market in Europe. The fresh goods and the easy-to-navigate, transparent building were pointed out in particular. Built in the late 19th century, the lighting and cooling systems installed in the threestorey, 10,000 m2 Market Hall represented state-ofthe-art technology of the time.

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10.

The route of tram No. 2 in Budapest was elected one of the ten most beautiful routes by National Geographic. It provides the most stunning view of the Parliament, the Buda Castle and Matthias Church. The cars, which are adorned with Christmas lights in December, pass the Danube Promenade and the row of hotels in Budapest.

According to an online listing by Lonely Planet, Budapest is the best winter destination. The leading publisher of travel books recommends Budapest before Dubai, Vancouver and Lebanon. According to Lonely Planet, Hungarians make great use of the wintertime, and besides viewing the fascinating cityscape, tourists are encouraged to visit cafĂŠs and spas.

Financial Times reported Budapest as the most attractive Central Eastern European premises for capital investment in 2014-2015. The same evaluation presents Hungary among the top 10 in the category of cost effectiveness and business environment.

In 2015, Hungaryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s image film was recognised as the best in Europe by the UN World Tourism Organisation. Besides the already renowned special national products (called Hungaricum), a special emphasis was put on the most attractive items of tourism â&#x20AC;&#x201C; i.e., Balaton, Budapest and health and conference tourism.

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SOFT POWERS: THE POWER OF SOUND AND LIGHT 171

A SELECTION OF BOOKS ON GEOPOLITICS PUBLISHED IN 2015

“Geopolitics of the South China Sea: in the shadow of China”

“Cracking superpower status”

“A pessimistic future vision of Europe”

ROBERT D. KAPLAN: ASIA’S CAULDRON – THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE END OF THE STABLE PACIFIC

JOSEPH S. NYE, JR.: IS THE AMERICAN CENTURY OVER? (GLOBAL FUTURES)

GEORGE FRIEDMAN: FLASHPOINTS – THE EMERGING CRISIS IN EUROPE

In his new book, the renowned author analyses the conditions at a potential scene of future geopolitical conflicts, the region of the South China Sea, pointing out the geostrategic interests of individual countries. The key purpose of the contending countries is to obtain significant quantities of oil and natural gas reserves, as well as control over strategic shipping routes. Kaplan reviews the conflicting interests, including the considerations of the USA in regard to an emerging China. According to his position, the serious conflict of the future in East Asia can only be understood if one is aware of the political goals of the participating nations and their leaders. The book is simultaneously geopolitical reading and a travel book, in which the author invites his readers on a journey to the cities of South East Asia, while also presenting his personal experiences, drawing conclusions for each country and summing up his geopolitical views.

In the past century, the strongest nation in the world was the United States of America, which played a dominant role in international politics since World War II. In recent years, however, the dynamic growth of China has given rise to a popular view whereby the world has reached a post-American phase. One of the most impressive figures in US foreign policy, Joseph Nye, argues in his book that the opinion advertising a change of eras is unsubstantiated. Although the superpower status of the USA has faltered due to the economic rise of China, on the one hand, and the problems of domestic politics faced in the USA, on the other hand; the USA will continue to outperform its rivals in terms of military, economic and soft power in the next decades. In order to prevent a change of eras, the USA must find solution to its problems and reconsider its international role.

In his most recent book, the geopolitical forecaster uses historical analysis to demonstrate how Europe created the modern world, how it lost control during the two World Wars, and how it rose and founded the European Union, which is exemplary in the eyes of many people. Constant territorial changes inevitably led to ethnic and religious controversies, and now the EU’s system of institutions is faced with serious challenges along borders where tension is high, such as in the Baltic region and the Ukraine. Friedman is rather pessimistic regarding the pacifying capability of the EU and the interdependent economic system, saying that a peaceful period represents an anomaly in Europe; and, although the world has changed, that does not completely resolve concerns. Flashpoints was published in Hungarian by PAGEO in 2015, along with two earlier bestsellers by Friedman.

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“Germany: back to geopolitics”

“The forced return of Russia, pressured by NATO”

“USA: scenarios of a great-power status”

STEPHEN F. SZABO: GERMANY, RUSSIA, AND THE RISE OF GEO-ECONOMICS

NATYLIE BALDWIN AND KERMIT E. HEARTSONG: UKRAINE – ZBIG’S GRAND CHESSBOARD & HOW THE WEST WAS CHECKMATED

IAN BREMMER: SUPERPOWER – THREE CHOICES FOR AMERICA’S ROLE IN THE WORLD

Rising as a unified country after the Cold War, Germany grew to be the second largest global exporter and the economic engine of the European economy. The national interests that dictate German foreign policy are defined by the economy, and it is in conflict with the ideologically-based concepts of the USA or other European states with increasing frequency. The author is a major expert on German-US and Transatlantic relations. Not only does he present strategic change through Germany’s policy towards Russia in his new book, he also provides an answer. Through interviews conducted with business, financial and political decision-makers, as well as through opinion polls, the author demonstrates how Germany relates to Russia, how the new geo-economic balance is created in Europe, and how economic interests reshape foreign policy, irrespective of ideology, international law and the notion of spreading democracy.

The authors use Zbigniew Brzezinski’s impressive work written in 1998, The Grand Chessboard, as their starting point. The authors claim that the United States has been attempting to rapidly implement the strategy outlined by Brzezinski in the past twenty years. They gobbled up the former Soviet satellite states and built NATO bases in the same countries. The goal is to weaken the viability and independent latitude of the Russian and Chinese economies and, at the same time, their ability to expand their power in Eurasia. This, in the authors’ view, led to the forced return of Russia to the playing field, and its response as an attempt to counter the expansion of NATO. Nearly half of the book explains the background and preliminaries to the game, while the second half presents the Ukrainian events from an unusual aspect, which reflects the individual opinion of the authors.

According to the author, the USA will remain the leading power in the world in the near future; however, the aimless foreign policy of Washington seen recently poses increasing risks. In the wake of the Cold War, US decision-makers undertake roles without a pre-defined strategy, proceeding from crisis to crisis, which justifies the three scenarios presented in the book. The Independent America would focus on its own internally challenged and unexploited potentials instead of others’ problems. The Moneyball America would only consider the international challenges that pose a direct threat to its interests. The Indispensable America would be the only one capable of defending the values that bring about global stability, and even its own security and welfare. The author enumerates arguments for and against, not taking a stance, only encouraging long-term commitment, since the country’s foreign policy is doomed without commitment.

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“The dark secrets of black gold”

KEN SILVERSTEIN: THE SECRET WORLD OF OIL The book by Ken Silverstein is not a presentation of the history of the oil industry in the traditional sense. Instead of chronologically organised information, the dark side of the oil industry is shown in seven thematic chapters. One chapter, for instance, relates the story of the son of Equatorial Guinea’s dictator, who spent the proceeds of oil on a villa in Malibu, race cars and even Michael Jackson relics. The author expresses a definite criticism of the United Stated for not checking on the dictator more thoroughly, despite the legal licence held by Washington. Tony Blair’s pricy consultancy to Kazakh dictator Nazarbayev is also addressed, and the author mentions that mostly oil companies violated the American law prohibiting corrupt foreign practices. The target audience of the book consists of those interested in the shady deals inevitably accompanying the people in the background of the oil industry and its huge revenues.

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“Pincer manoeuvre around India”

SAJI ABRAHAM: CHINA’S ROLE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN – ITS IMPLICATIONS ON INDIA’S NATIONAL SECURITY Today, the third largest body of water, the Indian Ocean, is attributed increasing geopolitical significance. An intensifying antagonism is seen between emerging powers in the region, which, Saji Abraham says, may even develop into military confrontation. On the one hand, the conflict of interest is attributable to China, which is growing to be a global power and which may upset the balance of powers in Asia. On the other hand, India’s advantage vis-á-vis China is becoming significant, owing to its geographical position. This is because over seventy per cent of China’s oil imports come from the Gulf region. The role of India on the transportation routes may fundamentally determine the energy security of China, which is becoming dependent. The book presents maritime security policy, changes in military strategy, the interests at sea of India and China, and their impacts on the global security environment.

“The ordinary days of robotic warfare” ANDREW COCKBURN: KILL CHAIN – DRONES AND THE RISE OF HIGH-TECH ASSASSINS Emerging from one moment to another, drones have grown to become the key assassins deployed by armies, capable of killing by remote control with baffling efficiency from kilometres away. The book tells an exciting story about the background of the research yielding drones – about deadly technologies, accommodating an industry worth billions of dollars. The book allows a sneak peek at the behind-the-scenes secret world interwoven with interests of national security. Interests of various groups stand in the background - government, military, corporate and intelligence. The author sheds light on a dark reality of the 21st century, where stealthy smart superdrones and robotic warfare have become a part of everyday life. The author, Andrew Cockburn, is an editor at Harper’s magazine. He mainly writes about issues of national security. His works are published in The New York Times and National Geographic, among others.

A SELECTION OF BOOKS ON GEOPOLITICS PUBLISHED IN 2015

“Latin America: target on the poor”

“USA: foreign bases vs. ideas”

JOHN GLEDHILL: THE NEW WAR ON THE POOR – THE PRODUCTION OF INSECURITY IN LATIN AMERICA

DAVID VINE: BASE NATION – HOW U. S. MILITARY BASES ABROAD HARM AMERICA AND THE WORLD

JJohn Gledhill examines what happens when a government regards a part of its society a source of danger. According to Gledhill, in certain parts of Latin America, the activities of organisations representing systemic violence is most often targeted at the poor. Summing up field research in Brazil and Mexico, the author explains how the war on drugs, which is popular in the media, affects the most exposed social stratum in Latin America, the poor. Taking the continent’s economic situation as the basis, he declares his scepticism against those who regard Latin America as a success story of “neoliberal” and “free-trade” capitalism, as inequality and public safety remain major problems on the continent. A finding of the book is that a number of Latin American states are not only unable to find a solution to these threats, but even aggravate them.

David Vine, a lecturer at the American University, calls attention to multiple adverse consequences arising from the problems of military bases maintained by the United States worldwide. While democratic ideals are pushed to the background, the US government bargains with dictators, while harming the environment, adversely influencing the development of the economy in the region, and spending over USD 100 billion per year from taxpayer money on running those bases. Apparently, the necessity has been questioned on political grounds recently, and the book provides highly useful additional information to understand the process. Base Nation is undoubtedly a significant scientific work by a significant author, also suitable for initiating a discussion of the topic.

“A world falling to pieces”

MICHAEL WESLEY: RESTLESS CONTINENT – WEALTH, RIVALRY AND ASIA'S NEW GEOPOLITICS The book discusses the psychology and cultural characteristics of Asian countries in order to understand their key motivations and fears in the light of globalisation, presenting the future trends that bear economic, social and political influence. Despite the opinion that further globalisation brings about increased demand for peacekeeping and enforcement of international law and order, certain Asian countries have started building an alternative world, relying on their own past and culture. What they feel is that the current system of institutions fails to provide sufficient influence on the formulation of global rules. Additionally, they are afraid that Western powers would restrict their access to resources. The book concludes that a future is near where the world as we know it will split into spheres of interest, bringing about a fluctuating system of competing units.

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“The geopolitics of drinking water”

“Prisoners of geopolitics”

“Africa as the pantry of China?”

MIKE GONZALEZ, MARIANELLA YANES: THE LAST DROP – THE POLITICS OF WATER

PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY – TEN MAPS THAT EXPLAIN EVERYTHING ABOUT THE WORLD

DEBORAH BRAUTIGAM: WILL AFRICA FEED CHINA?

Water, an indispensable resource for life, is increasingly controlled by private capital. Today, as a result of rapid growth in population and industrial production, the natural environment is being transformed and destroyed considerably, more often bringing about a scarcity of water. In the future, it may become a source of military conflicts. The book reviews what led to the current situation, what is known and what should be done as a next step. By outlining the complex debates around water, Mike Gonzalez and Marianella Yanes use a technical and scientific approach to make the topic accessible and intelligible for readers. As opposed to market fundamentalists, the authors claim that equality and social justice are possible and necessary when handling disputes related to water.

Tim Marshall scrutinizes Russia, China, the United States, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Japan and Korea, Greenland and the North Pole, as well as their climates, seas, mountains, rivers, deserts and borders, in order to create a context that is often missing from political reports. The author presents how physical properties affect the strengths and weaknesses of these countries, as well as the decisions made by their leaders. Through the ten up-to-date maps of the region, Marshall explains the complex geopolitical strategies of the major regions of our world clearly and in an easy-to-understand style. Besides an emphasis on discussing geographical factors, he seeks answers to questions such as “How do China’s geographic limits affect its future?”, “Will Europe ever unite?” and “Why will America never be attacked?”

Few topics are as controversial as the conviction that China is aggressively expanding in Africa through purchasing land, in order to import the produced food home. The fears are substantiated. China holds just over 9% of arable lands, while it holds 6% of the water supply and 20% of the Earth’s population. However, the savannah and river beds of Africa hide the most extensive under-utilised lands and water supplies in the world. One of the greatest Sino-African experts in the world, Brautigam examines the myth propagated by the media and explores the truth behind it. In her research, she points out that the agricultural investments and land purchases are surprisingly limited. Despite the rumours, the truth is that China’s exports of food to Africa exceed their imports. But how will this trend change in the future?

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FILM RECOMMENDATION LAST TRAIN HOME (2009) directed by: Lixin Fan starring: Yang Zhang, Changhua Zang, Suqin Zang, Qin Zhang running time: 85 minutes

Every spring, Chinese cities plunge into chaos when a “tsunami of people” attempts to get home to their loved ones. This is the time of the Chinese New Year. The tsunami consists of millions of migrant workers. The inhabitants of rural villages and families are driven by the imperative to leave their homes behind and seek jobs in explosively growing seaside towns. This is an epic sight, which reveals more about China – a country that abandons its own traditions, because they clash with modernity and global economic dominance.

The Last Train Home introduces us to the fragmented life of a worker family in this period of migration. Sixteen years ago, the parents Zhang left their small children behind to get work in the city, consoled by the hope that their wages would help their children to live a better life while studying at home. The bitter irony is that the hope of the Zhangs for a better future becomes unviable, precisely because of their absence.

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The eldest child, Qin slowly reaches adolescence in her grandmother’s care and beings to experience intense feelings of abandonment. As a rebellious teenager, Qin quits school and becomes a migrant worker herself, which comes as a blow to the parents, since it was precisely what they sought to prevent and avoid.

The film Last Train Home follows the classic “cinéma vérité” style, depicting the attempt of the Zhang parents to change their daughter’s decision and life, as well as to restore the family unit, which is falling apart. It is a truly intimate and sincere film that shows a human approach in representing China as it undergoes dramatic changes.

“Cinéma vérité” is a trend in filmmaking, going back to France in the 1960s. It originated from the directors and cinematographers of old American newsreels. The purpose of the trend is to reveal reality and the world to the viewer by peeking through a camera, skipping the directed and constructed structure of regular scripts.

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FILM RECOMMENDATION

THE BIG SHORT (2015) directed by: Adam McKay starring: Christian Bale, Brad Pitt, Ryan Gosling, Karen Gillan running time: 130 minutes

The Big Short, based on the world-famous book by Michael Lewis, presents the process of how the 2008 financial crisis unfolded. The pieces of the disaster that gradually grew into a global crash remained hidden to the media and the government for a long time. Some people, however, managed to predict the time bomb that brought them a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The idea involved pocketing a huge profit from a big “short” – i.e., speculating on falling prices – dreamed up by Michael Burry, a financial manager from San Jose, a number-cruncher and heavy metal enthusiast.

After lengthy studying, he realises that the booming market of housing loans is about to crash within a few years because of low mortgage values. Jared Vennet, an elite Wall Street banker, contacts Mark Baum, a sanguine and doubting broker dealing with bond swaps, whom he has never met before, to discuss the forecast – still unforeseen, but highly probable – and also to convince him to invest millions in the financial crash that remains hidden to all. Meanwhile, two brokers in their twenties, Jamie Shipley and Charlie Geller, also find out about the housing market balloon, For them, it holds the promise of coming up in the world and suddenly becoming rich.

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In order to achieve this, they need to seek out Ben Rickert, a retired banker, who can help the two fortune hunters achieve their goal. Ultimately, the financial market crashed in 2008, as a result of which millions of Americans lost their homes, jobs and pension savings. The Big Short holds a distorted mirror to the irresponsible and greedy financial system and its players.

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As opposed to other works discussing similar topics, which address the emergence of the crisis more in depth and systematically, this film attempts to convey information to a broader audience by quoting the general public on the issue. Moreover, excellent actors are seen in exciting characters. The success and impact of the film is underpinned by the number of expected awards and nominations.

ÁGI SZALÓKI: MUSIC OF DESIRE In 1994, at the age of 16, she appeared onstage for the first time at the anniversary of the band Andro Drom. Among her influences, she lists Márta Sebestyén, Béla Szakcsi Lakatos, Klára Bodza, the band Kaláka and Mihály Dresch, as well as singers from Transylvania and Moldova. She founded her first band in 2004, and produced her first CD, “Téli-nyári laboda” [Winter-Summer Orach]. This is when she turned toward children as her audience. Initially, her repertoire included folk song covers and children’s games; then she sang poems. In 2005, her record entitled “Hallgató” [Listener] for adults was released and awarded a Fonogram prize in the category “Jazz Record of the Year”. It was soon released by record company Ahora-Tyo in Japan. The next record in 2006, “Cipity Lőrinc , was aimed at children again and contained some of her own songs. In early 2007 this record was also awarded a Fonogram prize – this time in the category “Children’s Record of the Year”. In 2008 she recorded an album of songs formerly sung by legendary Hungarian actress Katalin Karády. It came out under the title “Vágy muzsikál” [Desire Plays Music], and was performed in Katona József Theatre with the actor Ernő Fekete contributing. Soon after, it was also released in Japan. In 2009, another children’s record and another Fonogram prize followed. “Gingalló” contains even more of her own songs and features renowned guest stars like musician Kornél Fekete-Kovács and actor György Cserhalmi. In early 2011, the new record “Kishúg” [Little Sister] was released in cooperation with drummer and composer Gergő Borlai. In 2011, a performance entitled “Bárcsak ez az éjszaka” [I Wish Tonight] was staged, conveying the experiences of her tour taken to collect folk songs. She presented the music and dances of three villages in the region of Mezőség in Transylvania, which represents a return to the roots of Hungarian folk music. Besides Hungarian, she sings in 11 languages. Abroad, she has most frequently given concerts in the United States, but also performed in French, Dutch, Spanish, German, Russian and Canadian world music and jazz festivals. She represented Hungary at government events on a number of occasions in places ranging from New York to Jerusalem and Beijing.

KARÁDY TRIBUTE CONCERT IN JAPAN Of Hungarian performing artists, Ági Szalóki has the most records released in Japan - seven albums were put out by Ahora-Tyo - and over 8000 CDs were sold. In 2015, she was offered an opportunity to appear in Japan. At the Japanese company’s recommendation, Ági Szalóki held her concerts on May 24, 2015 in the Cotton Club in the centre of Tokyo. It is located in the neighbourhood of the Club Tokyo station and is a favourite, high-prestige jazz club that frequently hosts international musical stars. The singer said, “Both our embassy and the recording company Ahora-Tyo agreed that the Cotton Club was the best possible venue for our debut in Japan. A key role in the organisation and implementation of the programme was played by cultural and media attaché Andrea Kálmán (from the Hungarian Embassy in Tokyo), whose personal attitude is worthy of mention, in addition to her great expertise in cultural and diplomatic issues. I needed her constant encouragement. I was not quite sure how the Japanese audience would receive the Karády songs, which we Hungarians love for their lyrics too. The decision was justified by two full-house concerts. After the concert, I spent approximately 100 minutes signing my CDs. In addition to the concert, I held two more presentations at the Tokyo University of Music and the Kunitachi Music Academy before 200 students each time. The two presentations were organised by Yokoi Masako, who visited Hungary a number of times and who played a considerable role in making Hungarian folk music popular in Japan. The audience included sound engineers and music editors, in addition to art students studying in various departments. Some of the audience were interested in studying in Hungary. In my presentation (an introduction to Hungarian folk music, starting from the beginning of Hungarian music research and the launching of the dance house movement to date), I sought to demonstrate music collected in Transylvania, as well as film footage previously supported by the National Cultural Fund’s Music College.

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“After the programmes, I gave multiple interviews (including one to the renowned Music magazine, with a 50-year history), in which I was asked about the musical scene and cultural values of Hungary. “I have contributed to presenting the Hungarian musical scene in Japan. We met multiple impresarios and appeared in the media, which represents further chances for invitations. Such invitations may also reach other fellow musicians and artists who are only planning their international tour, in addition to we who have participated in this tour (Kristóf Bacsó - saxophone, Gábor Juhász - guitar, Balázs Cseh drums, Ferenc Schreck - trombone, Zoltán Kovács double bass, Gábor Cseke - piano). With our concerts

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and performances, we intended to pave the way for those who seek opportunities to appear, perform and make contacts. “I have often reflected on the role of cultural diplomacy in settling social conflicts or tensions between countries. What we saw was wide interest for our concerts and university presentations, which may be a first step toward a dialogue.” The introduction was facilitated by support from the National Culture Fund’s Music College, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Pallas Athene Geopolitical Foundation.

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HUNGARIAN CHARM DEPICTED BY HUNGARIANS Best of world music records from Hungary

For the most prestigious world music top list, WMCE (World Music Chart Europe), 24 European world music experts select the top twenty among the most recent world music releases once a month. Then, a Top 20 list is published every month on WMCE’s website. A Hungarian title made it to the list for the first time in twenty years: a record by Félix Lajkó ranked fifth in the annual comparison. From that point on, the process has been unstoppable. In January 2015, Buda Folk came second; then, Romengo and Mónika Lakatos were among the leading eight in May. Lajkó may have broken the ice. Söndörgő’s record was mentioned with worldwide recognition, and it came as no surprise that it outperformed all others in the top list. Selecting from critiques by Hangvető, here is a presentation of the top-listed Hungarian works:

LAJKÓ FÉLIX:

SÖNDÖRGŐ:

CIMBALOMDUÓ:

MEZŐ [MEADOW]

TAMBUROCKETS

ÖSSZEHANGOLVA [ATTUNED]

This is the twelfth CD put out by Félix

The ensemble Söndörgő is one of the

Kálmán Balogh and Miklós Lukács have

Lajkó, but the first featuring zither music.

bands playing the freshest music in the

opened a new chapter in the history of

This time, he shows something new – not

world music scene, partly because it runs

the cimbalom. Kálmán Balogh exploited

only technically, but also musically. His

in their families. All of them are closely

the potentials of the cimbalom by play-

art covers territories where the custom-

related and attracted to Southern Slavic

ing folk music and folk-based improvisa-

ary categories all prove useless. What

folk music, but unlike most bands from

tion, whereas Miklós Lukács opted for

his art is reminiscent of is the approach

the Balkans, they opted to be a charac-

jazz. Their duo combines two highly spe-

of the East, mostly the world of Zen Bud-

teristic tambura band instead of follow-

cialised, unique worlds of expertise and

dhism. When asked what a given piece

ing brass traditions, occasionally adding

performance. Their mutual inspiration

is about or what the message is, all that

wind instruments and accordion. Their

releases an energy that almost tests the

the artist can do is to perform it again,

repertoire consists of music collected

boundaries of the medium.

saying: “This is it”.

by Béla Bartók and Tihamér Vujicsics. In 2011 their record “Lost Balkan” brought them resounding success at the Womex Festival in Copenhagen. Their latest record, “Tamburockets” has landed them at the top of world music’s top album lists.

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KARAVÁN FAMÍLIA:

ROMENGO:

BUDA FOLK BAND:

FOUR VOICES - ONE FAMILY

BUDAPEST-NAGYECSED AXIS

OWN COLLECTIONS (FONÓ)

Karaván Família has formulated their

The Romengo music group plays Olah-

This busy and self-confident urban folk

own style, based on the Gypsy vocal

Gypsy music from Hungary, and both of

band - which can be regarded as the suc-

tradition, relying upon the personal and

their CDs were selected in the top 10 of

cessor of the Muzsikás band, either by

musical harmony among the four family

World Music Charts Europe. Romengo’s

family ties or formally - assessed their

members, the parents and their children.

music is characterised by a respect for

own style as world folk music, indicating

Their programme consists of covers of

traditions and renewal. Besides their

that Hungarian folk music constitutes

Gypsy folk songs from east to west, all

preference for the use of spoons and

world music. They set out to be more

shaped to their own style, incorporating

tubs in addition to water cans, they are

than a traditional band, and now, ar-

elements of Mississippi blues, flamenco,

open to making new sounds. The musi-

riving at their third record, they offer a

Latin and Balkan music. The new record

cians say that the boundaries of Olah-

dense journey that is worth joining. Last

by Karaván Família entitled “Asvin”

Gypsy music exceed those of Hungary,

year they were invited to perform in the

[Teardrop] is a message from a family

which explains how other genres, such

Womex 2015 showcase programme,

about love, pain, tradition and peaceful-

as jazz and flamenco, are discernible in

where they gave an intense concert that

ness. The CD was voted by the panel of

Romengo’s songs.

made it difficult to tune in to other music

World Music Charts Europe among the

afterwards.

top 20 world music records.

ÁGNES HERCZKU:

SZÁJRÓL SZÁJRA

CIMBALIBAND:

BANDÁZOM [BANDING]

(PASSING ON SONGS)

MOLDVA (FONÓ)

Speaking about the genres of Hungarian

The greatest music of the past years

folk music or world music is hardly pos-

was probably brought about by musical

Cimbaliband is capable of preserving all

sible without mentioning Ágnes Herczku.

experiments where the most beautiful

its merits even when they approach the

Although she received training in music,

songs in the Hungarian lore of folk music

boundaries of pop music from the folk

jazz ballet and folk dance since the age

were performed with a whole new ap-

side. They certainly keep a safe distance

of seven, she never had ambitions to be a

proach in a strikingly different musical

from cheap music. They are naturally

professional stage artist. In 2007, she re-

environment. Today, we already know

born and chiselled talents, which makes

leased an authentic, unique and ground-

that folk songs are equally perfect ac-

it impossible for them to perform poorly.

breaking record of Béla Bartók’s music.

companied by tasteful jazz or by world

And what a huge loss it would be, since

An accomplished version of it was staged

music that relies on the instrumental

they are currently the top band playing

as a dance theatre production in Győr

traditions of other peoples, emphasizing

Balkan music. No other band is capable

in 2010, under the title Pár-ének (Song

spiritual ties. The project “Szájról szájra”

of mixing music from the Carpathian

for Couples). She showed her new side in

has brought together innovative musi-

Basin more colourfully, energetically and

two contemporary operas and songs. Her

cians from the vanguard of the world mu-

effortlessly than they. When I listen to

most recent work of folk music is titled

sic scene in recent years.

any of their records, I think it is their best,

“Bandázom” [Banding], in which she per-

until another one comes out to outshine

forms with Transylvanian guardians of

the previous one. Currently, “Moldva” is

traditions and the “crème de la crème” of

the best...

the Hungarian folk scene.

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TOP 10

Hungarians at the Global Forefront The National Bank of Hungary and the Pallas Athene Geopolitical Foundation intend to draw global attention to young Hungarian talents and creative communities in order to preserve and convey national values. TOP 10 – Hungarians at the Global Forefront is a joint publication presenting Hungarian talents to be proud of – role models who can inspire, set good examples and give self-confidence to today’s young people, since “we, Hungarians can make it to the top league in Europe and globally”! Our selection of success stories from the past three years surveys the fields of gastronomy, sport, culture, tourism, technology and science, pointing out segments that generally remain hidden from the general public. Let us take a look at the sensational Hungarians who have recently added colour to the worldwide web and the map of understanding in the 21st century!

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TOKAJ IS ONE OF THE BEST WINE REGIONS IN THE WORLD In an article published in 2012 by prominent US magazine Wine Enthusiast, Tokaj is on the list of top 10 destinations for wine tourism.

HUNGARIANS IN THE WORLD MUSIC TOP LIST Twenty-four European world music experts select ten of the most recent world music releases once a month for World Music Chart Europe. In August 2013, the list was topped by a Vojvodinian Hungarian violinist’s record “Mező” (Meadow), which ultimately ranked fifth in the year-end list. In January 2014, Buda Folk Band’s CD “Magyar Világi Népzene” (Hungarian World Folk Music) debuted in second place on the Top 10, while the fifth album by Söndörgő called “Tamburocket - Hungarian Fireworks”, which came out in late July 2014, ranked fourth.

THE CUTTING EDGE IN WATER SPORTS The 58-strong Hungarian delegation representing 12 sports at the 2013 World Games won six gold and four silver medals in Cali, Colombia. Gold medal winners were Lilla Székely (fin swimming), Renáta Csay (women’s single kayak), Máté Petrovics (men’s kayak), Márton Kövér and Attila Györe (double canoe), Bálint Noé and Milán Noé (double kayak), as well as Renáta Csay and Alexandra Bara (double kayak). The Hungarian women’s beach ball team, István Kalmár (sumo), Tamás Kiss (men’s canoe) and Vanda Kiszli (women’s kayak) won silver medals.

WORLD RECORD AT THE RUBIK’S CUBE CHAMPIONSHIP At the World Rubik’s Cube Championship held in Las Vegas in 2013, Hungarian Marcell Endrey triumphed in all the blindfolded categories, even setting a world record for the 5x5 cube.

GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL

SUCCESS OF HUNGARIAN ANIMATION Péter Vácz, a young film animation director, has been awarded over forty prestigious international prizes, in addition to Hungarian festival awards.Rabbit and Deer is a beautifully drawn and animated story about friendship, acceptance and the coexistence of 2D and 3D worlds.

Premiering in 2014, a comedy by Wes Anderson drew Budapest to the centre of attention, even if the film was shot and set elsewhere. The film featured international stars like Ralph Fiennes, Bill Murray, Tilda Swinton, Edward Norton and Harvey Keitel, while managing to render a critically acclaimed work despite presenting a complicated story. The story that takes place in a fictitious world was inspired by the works of Stefan Zweig and focuses on the Grand Budapest Hotel.

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LIST OF SOURCES NOAH RAFORD presentation supported by PAGEO at the 2015 TEDxDanubia eventl GEORGE FRIEDMAN Presentation supported by PAGEO at the PAGEO KLUB in June 2015 SIMON ANHOLT Presentation supported by PAGEO at the PAGEO KLUB in October 2015 TINA SAABY Presentation supported by PAGEO at the 2015 BrainBar Budapest A CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY World Economic Forum: Geopolitics vs Globalization: How Companies and States Can Become Winners in the Age of Geo-economics. George, Bill (2009): 7 Lessons for Leading in Crisis, 2009. Florida, Richard (2002, then 2012) The rise of the creative class. Friedman, George (2015): Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis In Europe Benedikt, Carl Frey és Osborne, A. (2013) The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Ferguson, Niall (2008-11-17). Team 'Chimerica' The Washington Post. THE AGE OF GEO-ECONOMICS arca, F. (2009): An agenda for a reformed cohesion policy. A place-based approach to meeting European Union challenges and expectations. Independent report. European Commission, Brussels. Bárdos – Féltoronyi, Nicolas (2002) Géoéconomie. Amsterdam: De Boeck De Castro, Renato Cruz (2000) Whither geoeconomics? Bureaucratic inertia in U.S. post-Cold War foreign policy toward East Asia. Asian Affairs 26. 201-21 Du Castel, Viviane (2001.) La Géoéconomie et les organosations internationales. Paris: LHarmatten Florida, Richard (2002, then 2012) The rise of the creative class. Glaeser, Edward L. (2011): The Triumph of the city. Kaplan, Robert D. (2013) The Revenge of Geography. Korompai, A . (1995) Regionális stratégiák jövőkutatási megalapozása. (Futurological foundation for regional strategies) Eötvös Loránd Science University Lengyel, Imre: (2015): A Gazdasági növekedés regionális alapjai - kézirat (Regional foundations to economic growth - manuscript) Lorot, Pascal (1999.) Introduction á la géoéconomie. Paris: Economica O’Brien, Richard (1992), Global Financial Integration: The End of Geography, New York: Council on ForeignRelations Press. Soilen, Klaus Soben (2012): Geoeconomics, Solomon, Richard H. (1992) America and Asia in an era of geoeconomics. Dispatch 3.410 WEF - WINNERS AND LOSERS OF GEO-ECONOMICS World Economic Forum: Geopolitics vs Globalization: How Companies and States Can Become Winners in the Age of Geo-economics. Baru, Sanjaya (2012): Geo-economics and Strategy, Survival, Vol. 54, Issue 3, 2012, pp. 47-58. Csurgai, Gyula (1998): Geopolitics, Geoeconomics and Economic Intelligence. Kundnani, Hans (2011): Germany as a Geo-Economic Power. The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, Issue 3, pp. 31-45 Leonard, Mark (2015): Geo-economics in an Age of Risk. Lorot, Pascal (1999): Introduction à la Géoéconomie, Economica Luttwak, N. Edward (1990): From Geopolitics to Geo-Economics. Logic of Conflict, Grammar of Commerce. In: The National Interest, Summer 1990 Maastricht Summer University – Geopolitical Analysis 2, 10-14 August 2015, GeoMeans (www.geomeans.com), lecturer: van Efferink, Leonhardt BERNEK, ÁGNES: GEO-POLITICAL STRATEGIES OF THE 21 ST CENTURY - THE GREATER WEST AND THE EURASIAN SUPERCONTINENT Asmus, Ronald (2008) Europe’s Eastern Promise. Rethinking NATO and EU Enlargement. Foreign Affairs January/February 2008. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ articles/63049/ronald-d-asmus/europes-eastern-promise Queried: 18.05. 2012. The Russain Black Sea fleet is a key to the Crimean crisis. Honvédelem. www. honvedelem.hu/nyomtat/42827 Queried: 29.07.2014.

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Bernek, Ágnes (2000) A globális világ „új gazdaságföldrajza” (The “new economic geography” of the global world). – Tér és Társadalom, issue 4, pp.87-107. Bernek, Ágnes (2010) Geopolitics and/or Geoeconomics. The Interrelations between the World Economy and World Politics in the 21 st Century. Geopolitics in the 21 st century. 1(1): 29-62. Bernek, Á. (2014): 21. századi geopolitikai stratégiák – Az ortodox geopolitika újjászületése és az egyre fokozódó biztonsági kockázatok. (Geopolitical strategies in the 21 st century - The rebirth of orthodox geopolitics and the intensifying security risks.) Nemzetbiztonsági szemle, Vol. II. No. 3, pp. 18-46. – http://nbszemle.uni-nke. hu Bernek, Ágnes (2015) A kelet-közép-európai régió a XXI. századi geopolitika nagy sakktábláján. (The Central and Estern European region on the grand chessboard of geopolitics in the 21 st century.) Köz-Gazdaság, Tudományos Füzetek. Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem, Vol. X. No. 1.- http://www.köz-gazdasag.hu Brzezinski, Zbigniew (1999) The Grand Chessboard. American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives Budapest: Európa Könyvkiadó. Brzezinski, Zbigniew (2012) Strategic Vision. America and the Crisis of Global Power. New York: Basic Books. Brzezinski, Zbigniew (2012) Balancing the East, Upgrading the West. U.S. Grand Strategy in an Age of Upheaval. Foreign Affairs 91(1): 97-104. Dugin, Alexander (2004) “The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia.” In: Liubov, Shishelina - Gazdag Ferenc. (ed.) Russia and Europe. An anthology of Russian geopolitical texts. Budapest: Zrínyi Kiadó. Gazprom’s home page: www.gazprom.com Kissinger, Henry (2002) Does America Need a Foreign Policy? Toward a Diplomacy for the 21 st Century. Budapest: Panem – Grafo. Kissinger, Henry (2012) The Future of U.S. – Chinese Relations. Conflict Is a Choice, Not a Necessity. - Foreign Affairs 91(2): 44-55. Kissinger, Henry (2015) World Order. Antall József Tudásközpont, Budapest. Luttwak, Edward (1990) From Geopolitics to Geo-Economics: Logic of Conflict, Grammar of Commerce. The National Interest, V. 17, Summer. Mackinder, Halford (1904) The Geographical Pivot of History. Geographical Journal 23: 421-437. Mackinder, Halford (1919) Democratic Ideals and Reality. New York: Halt. The home page of the Hungarian Government’s Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economy “Hungarian-Polish cooperation will always be in the focus of Hungarian foreign policy” –– Queried: 04.02.2016 http://www.kormany.hu/en/ministry-of-foreign-affairs-and-trade/news/hungarian-polish-cooperation-will-always-be-in-the-focus-of-hungarian-foreign-policy Nemerkényi, Antal (2004) „Az európai kontinens természetföldrajzi adottságai”( Physical geographical properties of the European continent”) (In: Bernek, Ágnes – Kondorosi, Ferenc – Nemerkényi, Antal – Szabó, Pál: Az Európai Unió (The European Union). Budapest: Cartographia Kft. Official site of the President Russia. Vladimir Putin inaugurated as President of Russia. 7 May 2012, 12:20, Moscow. http://www.kremlin.ru Queried: 08.05.2012 Official site of the President of Russia. Conference of Russian ambassadors and permanent representatives. 1 July 2014, 15:45, Moscow. http://eng.news.kremlin. ru/news/22586 Queried: 19.07.2014 Official site of the White House. Remarks of President Barack Obama – State of the Union Addresses Delivered. https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/01 /12/remarks-president-barack-obama-%E2%80%93-prepareddeli- very-state-union-address. Queried: 02.02.2016 Putin, Vladimir (2011) Izvestia, 3 October 2011. - http://izvestia.ru/news/502761#ixzz241ccxKbK Queried: 02.11.2012 Home page of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute honlapja - www. sipri.org The Silk Road Economic Belt - http://www.china.org.cn/business/node_7207419.htm The Belt and Road Initiative – http://english.gov.cn/beltAndRoad NEW ALEXANDRITES: LEARN THINGS WHEN NECESSARY; NOT SOONER AND NOT LATER. Anderson, C. (2009) Complimentary! A radikális árképzés jövője (The future of radical pricing). HVG Kiadói Zrt., Budapest Baracskai, Velencei, Dörfler, Szendrey: (2014) The Tunnel of Doctus KBS: The Deeper You Get the Darker It Is. Dubrovnik, Croatia, 2nd Internatinal OFEL Conference on Corporate Governance Baracskai, Dörfler, Szendrey, Velencei, J. (2014). What is the Difference? There was Always Lifelong Learning. International Scientific Journal of Management Information Systems, 9 (2), 03-09 Carr, N. (2014) The Shallows: What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains. HVG Kiadói Rt., Budapest Popper, K. (1998) Unended Quest. Áron Kiadó, Budapest Sedláček, T. (2012) Economics of Good and Evil - the quest for economic meaning from the Epic of Gilgamesh to Wall Street HVG Kiadói Rt., Budapest Tapscott, D., Williams, A . (2007) Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything. HVG Kiadói Rt., Budapest

FLORIDA, RICHARD: THE FUTURE IS BUILT ON CREATIVITY About Richard Florida – Martin Prosperity Institute. http://martinprosperity.org/ author/richard-florida/ [2015. 10. 31.] Creative Class Group. http://www.creativeclass.com/ [2015. 10. 31.] Florida, Richard: The Rise of the Creative Class – Revisited. New York, Basic Books, 2014, 512. Richard Florida – CityLab. http://www.citylab.com/authors/richard-florida/ [2015. 10. 31.] Richard Florida – Rotman School of Management. https://www.rotman.utoronto. ca/FacultyAndResearch/Faculty/FacultyBios/Florida.aspx [2015. 10. 21.] What is success in a city? The economic power of talented people – Richard Florida. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1NZ0RNnZz4 [2015. 10. 21.] VACCINATING A SOCIETY WITH CREATIVITY Aspen Review, Central Europe [No. 2., 2013]Creative Cities, pp. 9 - 24. 7 INDICATORS OF AN ADVANCED CITY Official home page of the City of New Orleans http://www.nola.gov/ resilience/100-resilient-cities/ Creative City Berlin http://www.creative-city-berlin.de/de/ Copenhagenize. com, 2012: Copenhagenizing Vancouverism, 2012 http://www.copenhagenize. com/2012/06/copenhagenizing-vancouverism.html UN Department for Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), 2014: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 Revision, Final Report http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/FinalReport/WUP2014-Report.pdf Economist Intelligence Unit, 2013: EIU Hot Spots 2025 – Global City Competitiveness Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Liveability index, 2014: Best cities ranking and report http://pages.eiu.com/rs/eiu2/images/Liveability_rankings_2014.pdf https://www. gfmag.com/global-data/non-economic-data/best-cities-to-live Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Spatial Adjusted Liveability Index, 2013: Best cities ranking and report, August, 2013 http://pages.eiu.com/rs/eiu2/images/EIU_BestCities.pdf Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), 2015: The Economist Intelligence Unit's liveability survey methodology http://www.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=The_Global_Liveability_Report_Methodology Global Innovation Agency – Global Innovation Cities Index, 2014 http://www. innovation-cities.com/innovation-cities-index-2014-global/8889 Green IT strategy for the City of Stockholm http://ec.europa.eu/information_society/activities/sustainable_growth/docs/events/past_events/open_days/stockholm_smart-city.pdf Karen Scott: Rural Culture Economies http://www.northernruralnetwork.co.uk /uploads/articles/files/rural%20Culture%20economies.pdf Legatum Institute, 2014: Legatum Prosperity Indexhttp://www.prosperity.com/ National Bank of Hungary, 2015: Growth report MasterCard Global Destination Cities Index, 2015 http://newsroom.mastercard. com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/MasterCard-GDCI-2015-Final-Report1.pdf Mercer Cost of living, 2015 https://www.imercer.com/uploads/GM/col2015/ e654123/index.html Mercer Quality of Living in Cities Global Survey, 2015 https://www.imercer.com/ uploads/GM/qol2015/h5478qol2015/index.html Miszlivetz, Ferenc – Márkus, Eszter, 2013: A KRAFT Index – kreatív városok – fenn- tartható vidék (The KRAFT Index - creative cities - sustainable countryside) – Vezetéstudomány XLIV. ÉVF. 2013. 9. SZáMhttp://unipub.lib. uni-corvinus.hu/1336/1 /vt_2013n9p2.pdf Monocle's Most (25) Livable Cities Index, 2015 http://monocle.com/film/affairs/the-monocle-quality-of-lifesurvey-2015/ http://www.dailymail.co.uk /travel/travel_news/article-3126280/ Tokyo-ratedworld-s-best-city-live-London-New-York-not-making-25.html The Green City Index – A summary of the Green City Index research series, 2012 http://www.siemens.com/entry/cc/features/greencityindex_international/all/ en/pdf/gci_report_summary.pdf The Heritage Foundation, The Wall Street Journal (2015): Index of Economic Freedom, 2015http://www.heritage.org/index/ The Rockefeller Foundation, ARUP, 2014: City Resilience Framework https://www. rockefellerfoundation.org/app/uploads/City-Resilience-Framework1.pdf

The Rockefeller Foundation (2014): The Resilience Dividend - Infografika https:// www.rockefellerfoundation.org/blog/most-important-job-you-haven-t-heard/ Transparency International, 2014: Corruption Perceptions Index 2014 http://www. transparency.org/cpi2014/results UN-HABITAT, 2012: State of the world’s Cities 2012/2013 https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/745habitat.pdf Qatar Financial Centre – Global Financial Centres Index, 2015 http://www.finance-montreal.com/sites/ default/files/publications/gfci17_ 23march2015.pdf Siemens European Green Cities Index, 2012: European Green City Index Report, 2012 http://www.siemens.com/entry/cc/features/greencityindex_international/ all/en/pdf/gci_report_summary.pdf Smart Cities – neue Strategien als Erfolgsgarant für intelligente und zukunftsorientierte Stadt-Umland-Entwicklung http://www.icon-vienna.net/partners-2014/%C3%B6sterrei- chischerst%C3%A4dtebund/more/ Stiglitz, J. E. –Sen, A . –Adviser, Ch. – Fitoussi J. P.: Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress http://ec.europa.eu/ eurostat/documents/118025/118123/Fitoussi+Commission+report World Bank, 2012: Knowledge Economy Index (KEI), 2012 http://siteresources. worldbank.org/INTUNIK AM/Resources/2012.pdf 25 HIGHLY LIVABLE CITIES The Fast Lane: The world’s best cities to call home – Financial Times 12/06/2015 The Quality of Life Issue – Monocle Magazine, Vol. 85 (2015), No. 9. p. 35-65. The Monocle Quality of Life Survey 2015 (Film) COPENHAGEN http://sustainablecities.dk /en/city-projects/cases/copenhagen-cities-can-runon-wind-energy http://www.tendensoresund.org/en/ http://www.cleanedge.com http://www.cycling-embassy.dk /2011 /02/02/super-cycle-highways-in-greater-copenhagen-area-2/ http://www.ditdanmark.com/article.82.html http://www.mim.dk /NR /rdonlyres/AD037041-1F8A-4EBE-A AD73076CF431087/0/COP15_EP_Thefingerplanafterthereform.pdf http://www. norden.org/en/nordic-council-of-ministers/ministers-for-cooperation-mr-sam/ sustainable-development/the-united-nations-commission-on-sustainabledevelopment-csd/sustainable-development-up-close-the-nordic-events-at-csd-19/cases-and-focus-areas/sustainable-lifestyles/ city-planning-denmark http://www.kk.dk /sitecore/content/Subsites/CityOfCopenhagen/SubsiteFront- page/~/media/984CDE09368A4AC6BC140F0E2B2140E3.ashx http:// www.mediconvalley.com/ http://depts.washington.edu/open2100/Resources/1_ OpenSpaceSystems/ Open_Space_Systems/copenhagen.pdf http://www.landscape-europe.net/files/311-328%2520correctie.pdf http:// www.naturstyrelsen.dk /NR /rdonlyres/168AEF1C-EE66-4FE9-95D3-92B5D4452BFD/0/9788772797793.pdf Hamu és gyémánt: Élhető Város (A liveable city) (March 2013) pp. 18 - 41. BUDAPEST VISION Available for download from pageo.hu SOFT POWERS: THE POWER OF SOUND AND LIGHT hangveto.hu http://www.thebigshortmovie.com/ http://www.last-train.com/ PHOTOS Hajnal, András (PAGEO Klub) Mózsi, Gábor (TEDxDanubia, Felfedezők Napja) Kálló, Péter (EUGEO) Vargha, Miklós (Brain Bar Budapest) Mark, Somay (WOMEX) Jaime Hogge (Richard Florida)

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EDITORIAL BOARD EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Norbert Csizmadia MANAGING EDITOR Anton Bendarzsevszkij EDITORIAL BOARD Ágnes Bernek Anton Bendarzsevszkij Norbert Csizmadia László Körtvélyesi Péter Szatmári György Szapáry István Szilágyi Ákos Vajas TRANSLATE Frank T. Zsigó DESIGN EDITOR Zsófia Szabó PRINTING Copy & Consulting Kft. PUBLISHER Pallas Athene Geopolitical Foundation 1013 Budapest, Döbrentei utca 2.

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AUTHORS András Hettyey Anton Bendarzsevszkij Ági Szalóki Ágnes Bernek Ákos Vajas Balázs Weyer Csaba Mányai Eszter Polyák Fruzsina Simigh Gergely Böszörményi-Nagy George Friedman Géza Salamin Júlia Gutpintér László Gere László Körtvélyesi Noah Raford Norbert Csizmadia Péter Klemensits Ráhel Czirják Sára Farkas Tina Saaby Viktor Eszterhai Zoltán Baracskai Zsolt Heiling DATE OF PUBLICATION March 2016

ABOUT HUG

LEGAL INFORMATION

AHungarian Geopolitics (HUG) is a periodical publication of the Pallas Athene Geopolitical Foundation, which relies on Hungarian and foreign authors to present the most recent and most interesting values, results and changes seen in the current Hungarian and global geopolitical and geostrategic scene, as well as other fields of science related to these two topics (social science and economics). The purpose of HUG is to provide inspiration not only for the fields of science, but also for the community interested in geopolitics to create new values through their comprehensive knowledge.

The publication HUG (Hungarian Geopolitics) is complimentary and not for sale. Writings published in HUG are the intellectual property of Pallas Athene Geopolitical Foundation (PAGEO). Copying and use of the contents of the publication is subject to prior consent of the foundation as the owner. CONTACT US Please send any questions, observations and problems related to the publication HUG to our staff at hug@pageobudapest.hu.

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An essential selection of

book workshops consisting of 4 titles

(SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE) George Friedman and György Matolcsy

“expect the unexpected” “see the events of the world through the eyes of decision-makers”

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H U NGAR IAN G EOPOLITICS

HUG

Noah Raford 2016