Agrhymet report by paola simoni

Agrhymet Regional Center

ITALIAN AID

WMO

Appropriate and on time information for food security in the Sahel

CILSS Executive Secretariat 03 BP 7049 Ouagadougou - BURKINA FASO Tel: ++226 374125 Fax: ++ 226 374132 E-mail : CILSS@fasonet.bf

AGRHYMET Regional Center B.P. 11011 - Niamey - NIGER Tel: ++227 733116 / 732436 Fax: ++227 732435 E-mail: admin@sahel.agrhymet.ne ap3a@sahel.agrhymet.ne Web: http://www.agrhymet.ne http://p-case.iata.fi.cnr.it/ap3a

Ap3a dossier

The present file was carried out by an interdisciplinary team consisted of Andrea Di Vecchia, coordinator of the project AP3Á, Brahima Koné, Djaby Bakary, Labo Moussa and Wassiri Kaoua for AGRHYMET Regional Center and Tiziana De Filippis, Michela Paganini, Patrizio Vignaroli for CeSIA/CNR. Graphic art and Printing: CAMERACHIARA Photograph: Regional center AGRHYMET, Enrico Blasi, Andrea Di Vecchia, Lorenzo Genesio, Gian Piero Paganini

WARNING Names employed and the presentation of the data which appear in this study and its contents engage only the point of view of the authors and imply on behalf of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, the Executive Secretariat of the CILSS, and the Italian Ministry for Foreign Affairs no standpoint as for the legal statute of the countries, territories, cities or zones, or their authorities, neither as for the layout of their borders or limits, nor as for descriptions which were made by it.

Documentation and CD-Roms available (2002) • The Context of Structural Vulnerability by Production System in the CILSS countries • The tabular database of the Integrated system for Early Warning • • • •

AP3A DBMS version 5.1 CD-Rom AP3A VISUALCARTE version 1.0 CD-Rom AP3A WEB version .3.1 CD-Rom AP3A Soil Aptitudes CD-Rom

Foreword

he quest of food security has made it possible to mobilize Sahelian countries for a decade in order to develop and promote information systems. These systems focus, among others, on current and structural vulnerability associated with food issues. This new impetus, which takes into account the mechanics of Sahelian societies with regard to their socio-economic and political context, is in line with the current trend in the globalisation of information through new information and communication technologies. The Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) has given this approach a new lease of life by gearing it towards a more accurate identification of vulnerable zones and groups and information products intended for planning as well. The change in information systems in this context results mainly from the efforts undertaken by the Early Warning and Agricultural Production Forecast Project (AP3A) with the AGRHYMET Regional Centre (ARC) as part of a strategy for linking sector-based information to a more compound and comprehensible type of information. This process resulted in early warning products for monitoring current situations and identifying risk zones by taking into account the level of structural vulnerability both at national and regional scales. Such an approach required improved centralization and flow of information through the setting up of a database management system as well as a real introduction of an information-based culture in national technical services. In addition, from now on current products make it possible to monitor crops and pastures based on satellite data. This publication is supposed to be a tool for reflection intended for decision-makers as regards the current and future issues of information on food security as part of a changeover – based on the method of “convergence of evidences” – from a type of information that has long been confined to sectoral aspects only to a type of information consisting of a synthesis. However, since this document includes objective limitations, the reflection process to be conducted should take into account most countries’ capacities for internalising the said tools while coming up with orientation prospects for gearing the said food security system towards a development information system. The current global information context also requires that substantive questions be raised on the availability and flow of information with a view to paving the way for a regional process. In addition, the current approach with regards to the taking into account of new development stakeholders in the flow of information on food security is of concern regarding the types of products and the role CILSS and Sahelian societies should play in this common work aimed at sustainable development. Therefore, the challenge to be taken up by CILSS for reducing poverty in Sahelian countries consists of bringing into line the information systems, the changes underway in Sahelian societies, the change in the international environment and development.

M. Alhassane Adama DIALLO Director General of the AGRHYMET Regional Centre

Contents The Issue of Food Security in the Sahel region

Change in the Sahelian Food Security Context Pastoral Production Systems and Farming Systems Main results of Ap3a project

Information and Early Warning Issue Early Warning and Agricultural Production Forecast Project Future development areas for the Sahel region

Information Challenges Facing Food Security Transfer and Sustainability of Early Warning Products at National and Regional Levels

Data Collection, Management and Accessibility in the Sahel Valorisation of Early Warning Products and their Development into Decision Support Tools as Part of Poverty Reduction

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Abbreviations AGRHYMET (Regional Centre)

Regional Training Centre for Agrometeorology and Operational Hydrology and their Applications

AP3A

Early Warning and Agricultural Production Forecast (Project)

ARC

AGRHYMET Regional Centre

CeSIA

Centro di Studio per lâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Applicazione dellâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Informatica in Agricoltura (Study Centre for the Application of Computing to Agriculture)

CILSS

Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel

CIRAD:

International Cooperation Centre of Agricultural Research for Development

DBMS:

Database Management System

EWS:

Early Warning System

FAO:

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

GIS:

Geographic Information System

IEMVT:

Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine for Tropical Countries

ISEW:

Integrated System for Early Warning Issues

ITCZ:

Intertropical Convergence Zone

MIS:

Market Information System

MWG:

Multidisciplinary Working Group

PRVS:

Structural Vulnerability Mapping System

SAC:

Current Analysis System

SAT:

Territorial Analysis System

WMO:

World Meteorological Organization

ZAR:

Risk Zones

The Issue of Food Security in the Sahel region

Change in the Sahelian Food Security Context 6

uring the World Food Summit held in 1996, FAO estimated the number of undernourished people in the world at 815 million. This data is an indication of the alarming magnitude of the phenomenon of food insecurity manifesting itself in different degrees associated with the number of people affected, the type of food shortage (qualitative insecurity) and the unavailability against the needs (quantitative insecurity). The following concept of food security was accepted in order to pinpoint the whole dimension of this phenomenon:

“Food security is attained when at any time human beings have physical access and can afford adequate, healthy and nutritive food enabling them to meet their energy requirements and food preference in order to live a sound and active life” (World Food Summit, October 1996) In Sahelian countries members of CILSS1 , the issue of food security of populations keeps on being acutely posed. The severest famines that affected the region occurred in 1914, 1973 and 1984. Historians report the severe calamities that occurred during World War I and claimed many human lives. The development of communication systems in the 70’s made it possible to mobilize the international community and establish sub-regional cooperation that resulted, among others, in the creation of CILSS. With three decades of action, the Sahelian region is recognized as being an example for Africa. In this region thanks to the actions taken by CILSS, the prevention of crises and research into the causes of food insecurity achieved important results.

The CILSS (Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel) member countries include: Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, the Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal and Chad.

The Disappearance of Woody Plants Across the Sahel is a Reality that Characterizes the Environmental Situation

The Sahelian Climate is a Factor that Proves Difficult to be Mastered The Sahelian agricultural production is highly influenced by the interaction between rainfall and length of the growing period. The climate mainly depends on the Intertropical Convergence Zone , whose movement between the Gulf of Guinea and the northern African part of Sahara conditions the length of the growing period. From northern areas to southern ones, it ranges from 30 to 150 days. Thus, apart from an irrigation-based water supply system, farming is limited. Besides, this climatic situation is characterized a very significant interannual variability of rainfall and its seasonal distribution. Several research works pointed out that Sahelian rainfall consists of dry and wet years despite an upturn in the total amount of rainfall observed over the past ten years. However, the total amount of rainfall and its distribution alone cannot explain the tenuous situation of Sahelian agriculture. Other biophysical factors are involved including the agricultural potential of soils and the vegetative cover.

Environmental Conditions Highly Characterized by Thin Unproductive Soils Sahelian soils have always been described as thin and unproductive with a low agricultural potential. This situation is due to both pedogenetic characteristics and man-induced actions. The agronomic situation shows very marginal soils due to their chemical composition and low content in terms of fine elements. The structural characteristics of these marginal soils cause them to be degraded due to the effect of crops with some consequences on water circulation in the agricultural/soil profile. Due to these characteristics, Sahelian soils are prone risks associated with runoffs and erosion that can subsequently reduce their potential. The studies conducted by the AP3A project on agricultural and pastoral capabilities show that 47% of soil areas have good or average capability notwithstanding the other risks. As in the case of this average agricultural land use suitability, some types of Sahelian soils show characteristics that are conducive to farming. However, they remain confined in fluvial areas or in lowlands.

The Sahelian vegetative cover is characterized by the presence of thorny shrubs often scattered in northern areas and savannahs with perennial and often annual herbaceous plants in southern areas. The change in the vegetative cover is mainly characterized by the disappearance of woody plants and the decline in annual herbaceous species due to the effect of climatic variations and particularly man-induced actions. Apart from these formations, other vegetations are also present including the forest vegetation and the halophytic vegetation of mangroves by the Atlantic Ocean (Senegal and Guinea Bissau). Due the climatic impact on the Sahelian vegetation â&#x20AC;&#x201C; with the disappearance of woody plants and the decrease in grass cover rate â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the question of desertification phenomenon, which exacerbates aridity, has been long raised. The populationsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; livelihood depends on this environment that is hostile at first sight to any productive activity. They play a major role in its evolution. A better understanding of the population dynamics and its geographical location makes it possible to better apprehend food security issues.

Due to the Growing Urbanization the Food Security Situation is Changing in Rural Areas

The Sahelian demography is currently characterized by a staggering growth of population (a growth rate ranging from 2.7 to 3%). This growth â&#x20AC;&#x201C; with regards to the issue of food security and ecosystems â&#x20AC;&#x201C; may appear imbalanced in view of the available resources and carrying capacity of ecosystems. There is a low population density at national level and a very significant heterogeneity at regional scale. This situation shows human concentration areas mainly located in cultivable zones delimited in the north by the limit of the Sahara desert and in the south by the areas affected by onchocerciasis (river blindness) and schistosomiasis. Within both areas, this distribution consists of a process characterized by the environmental crisis and drift of populations from the countryside towards urban centres and coastal zones. Therefore, the urban population, apart from few exceptions, accounts for more than 35% of the people living in these zones. This population dynamics is an important factor in the change in farming systems. Therefore, the study of the latter is of paramount importance in the assessment of development strategies and food security analysis.

The challenge of Intensive Farming facing Traditional Production Strategies One of the main aspects of farming systems is their extensive nature in terms of techniques utilised and land cover. The assessment of the current situation shows a duality between the point of saturation reached in terms of space and changing over to an intensive system. As a matter of fact in most farming systems, marginal lands tend to be brought under crop and a downward trend in yields is recorded. In addition, in stock production systems, there is an upward trend in livestock numbers against reduced grazing areas. This type of agriculture makes use of very little chemical or natural fertilizers. The quantity of fertilizer used does not exceed 10 Kg/ha and organic fertilizers are applied in some places. With regard to agricultural areas, the change in area per capita declined in almost all the CILSS member countries and hovers around 0.5 ha/capita in rural areas. Farm mechanization and more specifically animal traction is used mainly in areas growing cash crops. Its introduction in other cropping systems was limited due either to farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; low incomes or reasons associated with the technical management of working time. The cropping practice that is still used consists the practice of fallowing land with a significant reduction in terms of duration.

A New Vision of Animal Husbandry for Sustainable Development The Sahelian animal husbandry should be reoriented towards practices using less space and that are not too dependent on the climate. The place of the Sahel in the sub-regional and global economy will be a determining factor in the gradual development of these systems into animal husbandries enabling to support sustainable development. These changes require a better access to markets, the minimization of risks relating to credit granting and the introduction of new production standards enabling to give the marketing channel a new impetus.

9 is indisputably one of the important components able to withstand great fluctuations in the food security situation. In the face of this situation, the CILSS member countries’ political contexts consist of a process that can result in significant impact on food security.

A Greater Participation of the Civil Society in the Regionalization Process

The Economic Duality Between the Informal and Modern Sectors The economic environment makes it possible to have a better understanding of the Sahelian food security context through the above-mentioned points. It is mainly characterized by globalisation, privatisation and States’ disengagement from productive sectors. However, it should be underscored that the integration of Sahelian economies at international level goes back a long way thanks to foreign trade consisting of export crops and regional trade. In the present situation, the economy that supersedes the former one is characterized by a booming informal sector that makes it possible to meet the new needs created by the growing urbanization. The consequences of such a two-speed system including the modern and informal sectors are conducive to the maintenance of regional areas that constitute the real economic situation. This form of economy

The Sahelian States’ political context is characterized by a great participation of the civil society and the beginning of decentralisation processes. This is conducive to the emergence of new stakeholders in the field of socio-economic development (private sector, NGO, farmers’ organizations) who will change the face of institutions with a view to a greater political stability. This situation, with a steady balance in term distribution of wealth, will be conducive to the food security of populations. It is even more strengthened since actions aimed at the establishment of a greater regional area are underway.

Information for a sustainable development In an environment including these issues and constraints, the current orientations make poverty reduction a prerequisite for the development of the Sahel. This vision includes issues that are not only limited to food security. It lays emphasis on the strengthening of information systems – from data collection to dissemination as well as the development of technical capacities – with tools that go beyond the prevention of food crisis and geared towards development planning in all sectors. This is the price to be paid by the Sahel for sustainable development by seizing the opportunity offered by the current context of ever-growing development of new information and communication technologies.

Pastoral Production Systems and Farming Systems

he analysis of cropping systems makes it possible to better apprehend the situation of Sahelian farming systems. Over forty crops exist in the Sahel but millet and sorghum are the major ones. The distribution of major crops is mainly associated with the climate and the various types of crop association are specific to the various village lands. Thus, the Sahel is a rainfed grain-growing area. Because of the increase in regional trade, cereal crops have greater and greater financial dimension as in the case of cash crops (cotton and groundnut mainly). This change provide farmers with an opportunity to chose a strategy of redistribution seeded areas among crops from year to year on the basis of market price as in the case of maize in the cotton growing belt. Thanks the agricultural data collected in recent years, the analysis of cropping systems conducted by the AP3A project made it possible to characterize the Sahelian administrative units (2nd and 3rd level according countries) on the basis of the relative utilization of seeded areas and the way animal husbandry is carried out. This analysis enabled to attribute a farming system (subsistence production system, cash crop production system, rice production system and mixed farming system) to each administrative unit in a univocal way. With regard to animal husbandry we took into account either the level of integration into farming systems giving a pastoral attribute or not, or the nature of true pastoral production system.

Cereal Production System: the Heart of Food Security in the Sahel Administrative units with over 70% of their areas sown to food crops represent the cereal production system considered in this analysis. It occupies the major part of areas with agricultural potential, accounts for 45% of seeded areas and concern 49% of the rural population. As a matter of fact, it is characterized by an average population density with the exception of Burkina Faso where, in the central plateau, the population density ranks among the highest in the Sahel. These systems extend from the department of Matam in Senegal via northern Mali, Burkina Faso, the departments of Tillabéry and Tahoua (south-western Niger) up to Chad. The northern part of this large area is characterized by the agropastoral breeding system.

Millet and sorghum are the major crops. From the economic standpoint, they are intended for home consumption and markets, with a level of investment that is low or nil except in areas where farmers derive their incomes from cash crops or animal husbandry. In the cereal production system, crop association with legumes is present all over the Sahel. In addition to the fact that they help get round production risks, the techniques utilized are first and foremost of agronomic nature (soil protection against erosion, reduced weeds, nitrogen input). Because of the fragile ecosystems and the rigidity of the production system mainly aimed at home consumption, these populations are regularly faced with crisis conditions that compel them to develop strategies for minimizing risks such as the sale of small ruminants, cash crops or other sources of income in order to meet their basic food requirements. The rural population engaged in this system accounts for 17% of the number of vulnerable people.

The Cash Crop Production System: The Gateway to International Markets The cash crop production system considered in this analysis is represented, after identifying subsistence production systems, by administrative units with over 20% of their areas sown to cash crops. This system does not rule out the strong presence of food crops as strategies for food security. The cash crop production system accounts for 8 % of seeded areas and concern 26% of the rural population. It is characterized by a high density in the order of 33 inhabitant / km. The cash crop production system is mainly based on cotton and groundnut and to a lesser extent on maize. Despite sudden fluctuations associated with farm gate prices, these crops are still present with new areas. This price fluctuation is generally in favour of maize that is cultivated as cash crop in case the cotton-based sector is faced with a crisis. The cash crop production systems are found in south-western and south-eastern CILSS. With regards to the distribution, the major part of Senegal is characterized by this system, particularly the area located in northern Gambia (groundnut growing belt), Kolda region and the lower part of the groundnut-growing belt. The Gambia is considered as being entirely characterized by a cash crop production system with increased portion accounted for by groundnut from western areas to eastern areas. Northwestern Guinea Bissau that has a less humid climate compared to the coastal zone is generally characterized groundnut cultivation. Groundnut and sesame are also cultivated in western Burkina Faso, Kénédougou and Comoé provinces. In Chad, the sudanian area is characterized by cash crop systems. The prefectures of Western Logone, Eastern Logone, Mayo Kebbi, Middle Chari and Tandjile are classified as cash crop growing areas due to the presence of groundnut.

where rice has replaced flood recession sorghum, the Niger River banks and some coastal areas of Guinea Bissau. However, it should be underscored that practices range from flood recession cultivation to irrigation-based water supply. The population engaged in these systems as well as the areas covered are not significant. The rice production system accounts for 2.8% and less than 1% of the total rural population and total areas seeded respectively.

Besides, due to commercial issues and the downward trend in the farm gate prices of cash crops the food security of populations is not guaranteed. Indeed, according to the vulnerability analysis conducted as part of the AP3A project, the proportion of vulnerable people account for 34% of the total rural population engaged in this system.

Rice Production System: a Food Crop Turned into a Cash Crop The rice production system is associated with the presence of developed fluvial areas or lowlands or not. These limited areas include the Senegal River Valley

Entire administrative units are characterized by the presence of large irrigated areas for rice farming over northern limit of Senegal (Departments of Dagan and Podor). Over the Niger River, the scenario is slightly different because this stream makes it possible to have abundant water during the whole year. The Circles of Tenenkou and Mopti in Mali are also classified as rice production system.

The Mixed Farming System: Diversification as a Strategy for Achieving Food Security In mixed farming systems, no crop is predominant as in the case of other systems. From country to country, various types of mixed farming systems are found. The zones occupied by this system account for 7% and 18% of the area and total rural population of CILSS respectively.

From “Le Contexte de la Vulnérabilité Structurelle par Système de Production dans les Pays du CILSS”

In Mali, in the region of Koulikoro, this system is predominant with a high agricultural potential and poor development of agriculture. In Niger on the other hand, this system is coupled with the presence of cowpeas and is characterized by agriculture conditions highly limited by climatic hazards. In Cape Verde islands, this system is also predominant with a strong presence of legumes. In the regions of Oio and Bafata in Guinea Bissau groundnut is found with millet, sorghum, maize and rice.

CILSS in terms of area (79.6%) from the Atlantic coast of Mauritania up to Chad. The population concerned account for 31% of the total rural population. However, the true pastoral system accounts for 5% and over 58% of the rural population and area respectively.

The diversification characterizing the mixed farming system is at the root of its flexibility in terms of capacity for adaptation to the influence of markets. This situation makes it possible to minimize risks through a greater valorisation of economic potentials against available natural resources. This results in a significant decrease in the percentage of vulnerable population engaged in this system, which on the basis of estimates does not exceed 14% of the population living there. This rate proves to be the lowest among all the agricultural systems studied.

The importance of this activity in the CILSS member countries’ economies is associated with livestock marketing geared mainly towards coastal countries. Thus, animal husbandry contributes to increasing the incomes of all the people included in the production and marketing line. Its role in food security is more evident during crisis periods because breeders and some farmers rely first and foremost on livestock that enables them to get money straight away.

Suburban Agriculture: The supplying of Markets as Source of Employment

Agriculture and Natural Resources: A Difficult but Essential Compromise to be Reached in the Sahel

Beside the other systems, there are urban systems. They originate in the increasing demand from towns that contributes to creating jobs for rural populations that sought refuge in town. These systems are found around watering points, riverbanks and wastewater disposal areas. They make it possible to supply markets with vegetables, flowers and raw food mainly.

Pastoral Production Systems: Animal Husbandry, a Resource to be Valorised True pastoral production systems or those integrated into farming systems occupy the portions of the territory located entirely or partially below 300 mm isohyet. In addition these systems take into account all the administrative units located in the northern part of the limit between agricultural areas and pastoral zones identified in l’ “Atlas des potentialities pastorales sahéliennes” ‘IEMVT/CIRAD). These systems occupy the major part of

This diversity of farming systems highly contributes to shed light on the analyses carried out in the field of food security. It mainly shows the relationships between the Sahelian societies and their environment in food insecurity risk management but also the processes that may have existed through the input of new systems such as those related to cash crops. As a result of their development, all these systems have changed the environmental context particularly through the drastic decline in soil fertility and caused some socio-economic changes relating to the social carrying capacity and the linkages with markets. The future of these systems lies in the changes underway in land systems. It also goes through a major behavioural change in natural resource management and the creation of a regional area that can lead to intensified agriculture in the Sahel.

Main results of Ap3a project

Information and early warning issue 14

he drought that affected the Sahel at the end of the 70’s was mainly at the root of information systems enabling to meet the needs with regards to food aid and the prediction of climatic risks affecting agricultural production. These systems aimed at forecasting risk situations based mainly on the climatic factor in the various geographical zones. Agrometeorological assessment models made it possible to produce large-scale homogeneous information in these systems. However, the efficiency of these instruments proved inadequate in the development of information because of the socio-economic factors influencing food security. Therefore, the quest of appropriate solution resulted in the selection of several options in the field of information systems in Sahelian institutions with its corollary of diversity of terminologies at the root of methodological developments and approaches. We are witnessing now the development of a complex system supported by the States, the international community and CILSS in order to meet the needs for information in terms of early warning. The mission of this system is to provide appropriate information on populations at risk on various spatiotemporal scales based on several interacting mechanisms: •

The monitoring of the cropping season based on prediction models and information collected by Multidisciplinary Working Groups (MWG),

•

The annual agricultural sample survey for preharvest assessment of agricultural production

•

Cereal and Livestock Market Information Systems

•

Vulnerability Analysis

At regional level and in most countries, joint early warning systems missions, promoted by the AGRHYMET Regional Centre and national early warning systems (EWS), progressed towards information on the food situation, harvest forecast, facilitation of decision-making based on reliable information. Thus, the systems were a position to make predictions with several risk scales based on division into zones and the stratifying of population concerned (villages at risk, target groups etc). This change was characterized in recent year by the development of methodologies aimed at vulnerability analysis.

Today, the systems are faced with a demand for easily accessible and diversified information in real time depending on end users’ needs. Almost 20 years after the last severe famine that affected the Sahel, the demand for information has been geared towards the prevention of local crises and the monitoring of regional trade in order to prevent the disruption of markets. However, the occurrence of new famines may seriously question the populations’ efforts for the development of the region. Therefore, it has become vital that the regional system for early warning continues to keep watching in order to prevent such an event. In addition, in recent years new causes, which can result in crises with regard to the food security of populations, have emerged. This requires that early warning systems keep on evolving in order to master these new factors of disruption. The AP3A Project’s approach is in line with this context. It aims at actually taking into account the real characteristics of zones by carrying out a thorough analysis and presenting clear products enabling to taking into consideration the regional dimension. In this perspective, the tools developed and the information products serve as a basis for analysis to national institutions for identifying areas where actions in terms of development assistance and support to food production are required, and to situational vulnerability analysts who can use it as a comparison base in their processing.

The Early Warning and Agricultural Production Forecast Project

he Early Warning and Agricultural Production Forecast Project funded by the Italian Cooperation through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) was implemented as of 1995 with a funding amounting to about 4.3 million dollars through two phases covering the periods 1995-1998 and 1999-2002 respectively. Its strategic objective consisted of the development of methodologies geared towards the identification of zones at structural and situational risk in the agricultural and pastoral fields. These methodologies were integrated into the Integrated System for Early Warning issues (ISEW) that should enable territorial characterization in terms of vulnerability and predict the development of conditions of potential risk during the cropping season. At national and regional levels, ISEW should enable to better orient and increase the efficiency of the institutions operating in national Early Warning Systems (EWS). The results expected from the project may be divided into two categories including information products and Sahelian nationals’ capacity building at regional and national levels. Technical aspects were given a greater importance during the project life in order to define appropriate choices and create an information base that was short in the region. For seven years, the project has contributed to setting up at regional level a solid foundation with regards to computer data, methodologies and solutions. In addition, it has contributed to consolidating a new technical culture in the field of information technology of which the sustainability remains a common challenge to be taken up by Sahelian countries and their partners for the countries of the region not to remain marginalized at global level. The lessons learnt during the project include, among others, the fact that the complexity of the Sahel particularly the diversity and interaction of farming systems, show the importance of a better understanding of the regional process with regards to the actions underway and environmental impacts. One of the most important aspects lies in the technological innovation in accordance with the actions aimed at enhancing human capacities for developing the region. On the basis of this lesson, the project has resolutely undertaken a multisided transfer to the Sahelian countries.

To that effect, the project has developed an integrated system to support the production of information that progressed in time from a rigid system to a flexible and open system able to meet the technological needs of national institutions as provided for in ARC’s mandate. The Integrated System for Early Warning issues is composed of four autonomous but interactive modular subsystems. The existing functional relationships between the sub-systems were developed in order to meet early warning objectives on the one hand and to gear their utilization towards an information system for managing natural resources on the other hand: •

The Socio-economic Database Management System (DBMS) (population, historical, agricultural statistics and pastoral series) and Climatic Databases (onset and length of the season).

•

The Territorial Analysis System based on a set of geographical information layers (administrative units boundaries, pastoral potential, soil maps, NOAA images etc.) and the management at territorial level of the data provided by the DBMS.

•

Structural Vulnerability Mapping System (PRVS) consisting of a set of processing intended for pointing out homogeneously the conditions of stability, instability and exceptional conditions of the various farming systems on various mapping scales (regional, national and sub-national)

•

The Situational Analysis System is made up of various modules enabling to monitor the development of the cropping season and to forecast production figures.

The Database and Database Management System

Since the setting up of the Sahelian information systems, the actions taken resulted in the improvement of data collection in the fields of food security. However, no attention was paid to the securement of this mass of data for an easy utilization. Its preservation and valorisation were agreed up as one of the project’s priorities and a prerequisite to the development of applications. These actions required the setting up of a processing line/ chain steered by the regional level with the participation of national components and made it possible to create homogenous and coherent regional databases in the nine CILSS member countries. This data include: •

Administrative units (administrative subdivisions – locations);

•

Demography (general census – men, women, urban and rural population – number of households, compounds and population growth rate);

•

Agriculture (production, area and yield of the major Sahelian crops);

•

Animal Husbandry (livestock numbers, growth rate and animal health);

•

Agrometeorological parameters

The project’s philosophy consisted of assisting in setting up the database and its management system with the organization of a network including ARC and the national institutions concerned in order to ensure the integrity and updating of data. This makes it possible to guarantee in the long run a greater flow of information in the CILSS system, in the countries and toward the international community. The Database Management System (DBMS) includes, among others, modules for querying, updating and analysing data. The flexibility of the system and its modular concept enable to take into account other types of data without any major difficulty. For greater security, the DBMS was developed by taking into account the needs of users and national officers in charge of managing and updating databases. Therefore, it includes gateways to simple or compound products relating to the regular activities of national institutions and to Geographic Information System (GIS) for spatial analysis. The meta-database consists of a system for certifying data enabling to know data origin and history.

In this context, the project followed three main lines of development in the setting up of the Territorial Analysis System (SAT) including:

Thematic Mapping and Territorial Analysis System During the past decade, several international initiatives set up mappings and geographic databases focusing on the Sahel. These actions made it possible to improve the information derived from early warning systems while promoting the utilization of advanced analysis tools such as GIS. The spatial analysis carried out as part of the AP3A project is important particularly with regards to aspects relating to territorial characterization. This approach made it possible to create an enabling environment at regional level for introducing new technologies in the field of information while valorising the existing experience some Sahelian countries.

•

The standardisation and creation of geographic databases common to the nine CILSS member countries;

•

The production of thematic mapping intended for food security and natural resource management;

•

The setting up of simple analysis tools such as “Visualcarte” adapted to the context of national institutions or gateways for utilizing commercial GIS software for people with greater expertise.

The SAT makes up the main component of the Integrated System for Early Warning particularly in the characterization of territories based on structural and situational risk. It includes the whole component of spatial analysis specific to a geographic information system. The data utilized for the territorial analyse are derived from the database management system and basic modules. Thanks to its design, the SAT makes it possible to obtain simple or compound products aimed at mapping risk indicators and various types of vulnerability in the form of thematic maps. In order to provide access to the whole mapping information to all the users operating in the field of food security, territorial planning and natural resource management, the project developed a software for managing and displaying the user-friendly simple thematic mapping software, that is Visualcarte. The software has the main functional characteristics of GIS software enabling particularly to display thematic layers necessary for a pre-characterization of territories as well as processed products derived from situational analysis modules.

Structural Vulnerability Mapping and Structural Vulnerability Mapping System

The notion of vulnerability has been asserted over the past ten years as a concept that can contribute to a better understanding of the causes and nature of food insecurity as well as its dynamic relationships with other complex socio-economic phenomena such as poverty. It is in this context that the project has undertaken as early as 1995 the development of Structural Vulnerability Mapping System (PRVS) with the following objectives: •

To characterize the risk zones identified by the mechanisms for monitoring the agro-pastoral cropping season in order to understand the impact due to a deficient food situation on the populations living there;

•

To contribute to the definition of a frame of reference for identifying vulnerable zones and populations at regional and national scales in the CILSS member countries.

The approach utilized in the definition of PRVS is based on the following points: •

To fit into the other existing methodologies for promoting a better knowledge of vulnerability structure;

•

To meet the needs for information for managing emergency situations and long term planning through the definition of vulnerability context and its processes at various scales (regional, national and sub-national);

•

To enable the presentation of results in the form of maps based on the modes of representation (qualitative and/or quantitative) of observed phenomena.

It considers mapping as being part and parcel of ISEW and stems mainly from structural productive vulnerability concepts, that is, when the conditions of fragility of a zone or group of people developed over many years. Concerning this characteristic, structural vulnerability consists of a first input for an early warning system, be it for any analysis aimed at determining the level of food security with regard to a target (area or group of people) during the agro-pastoral cropping season. Concerning the operational situation, the methodological steps that made it possible to diagnose spatial vulnerability include the following: •

Definition of the existing farming system and their spatial localization at sub-national level;

•

Assessment of the capacity of the primary sector using the rate of potential satisfaction of cereal requirements by farming, animal husbandry and cash crops;

•

Territorial analysis based on agricultural pressure;

•

Study of the processes existing in homogeneous observation units

•

Identification and characterization of vulnerable zones

The products derived from the methodology include on the one hand localizing – for national and regional (supranational) decisions– all the areas faced with significant limitations with regard to their primary production, quite numerous population and overall a significant economic and productional instability. The methodology makes it possible to describe the future de development of various zones based on their production potential and the degree of pressure exerted on the systems analysed. The results stemming from this approach made it possible to describe the productive and natural resource availability context accounting for 24% of the vulnerable rural Sahelian population. In addition, they enabled to identify homogeneous vulnerable zones from an agroecological standpoint for analysing their processes.

Risk Zones and Current Analysis System The severe drought that affected the Sahel in the 70’s made Sahelian countries and the international community aware of the need for information for preventing food crises. This awareness prompted governments and the international community to reach a consensus for setting up information and early warning mechanisms at national and regional levels enabling to alleviate its adverse effects on the food security of populations. To that effect information systems for early warning were developed while combining in recent years the demand for information intended for preventing food crises and the demand stemming from the monitoring of the cropping season in order to prevent any market disruptions. The project adopted the strategy consisting of fitting into this context through the valorisation of existing products and the development of new applications based on the approach of “convergence of evidences” . This approach makes it possible to overlay the information derived from different models and tools in order to come up with information consisting of a synthesis with greater reliability. The project’s philosophy was based on the integration of any information be it structural or situational into ISEW and the development of models for situational monitoring in order to integrate the existing information. The models developed helps to meet either the needs for long lead prediction of crises such as that of the “vegetation front”, or monitoring the season including “risk zones” (ZAR) and the “biomass”.

19 The “vegetation front” model was developed by taking into account the Sahelian climatology that is associated with the movement of the ITCZ and makes it possible to predict the development of the establishment of the rainy season in the various areas of the Sahel and to monitor the development of the vegetation. It is based on the analysis of satellite based NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) images combined with the characteristics of natural and cultivated vegetation. The products derived as of May include dekadal, monthly and annual maps enabling to compare the changes recorded between the current year and the previous years. ZAR makes it possible to simulate the performance of cropping seasons relative to rainfall amount and distribution either in terms of first sowings and resowings or in terms risk of decline in yield depending on the length of the season and crop cycle. The model produces a set of information as of July, at a scale enabling to characterize the development of the cropping season at local level. The most important information produced includes the spatial distribution of successful and unsuccessful sowing dates and the comparison of the beginning of the current cropping season with that of the previous growing season. The model for assessing the herbaceous biomass called “Biomass” simulates the fodder production of Sahelian ecosystems in agricultural and pastoral areas based on rainfall and soils. It makes it possible to obtain as of late September the quantity of fodder biomass at the level of the pastoral units of the CILSS member countries. The outputs of the model range from the prediction of carrying capacity to the comparison of the current season with the previous seasons and seasons of reference, as well in terms of dry and average year. In addition, with the extension of the model from pastoral areas to agricultural ones, it enables to draw up the feed balance by taking into account the agricultural production.

From “Le Contexte de la Vulnérabilité Structurelle par Système de Production dans les Pays du CILSS”

The information produced throughout the year is disseminated in the CILSS member countries through regional bulletins for early warning and at international level via the Internet and the Project’s Web page. Furthermore, it should be underscored that a network in which the AGRHYMET Regional Centre and the national institutions of the CILSS member countries are participating has been consolidated. Through this network, the access to models outputs or final thematic mapping is facilitated in order to enable their utilization in national systems.

Information Products • • • • • • • • • •

DBMS and DB on agriculture, animal husbandry, population and agro-climatology (ten year or thirty year series) (3,500 CD-ROMs) for the nine CILSS member countries Viewer and thematic mapping for the nine CILSS member countries (over 550 maps) (3,000 CD-ROMs) Simulation models for early warning (Risk zones –ZAR-, biomass, SISP and Vegetation Front) Web site with documentation, current analyses and information layers for early warning Technical documentation on the WEB including analysis reports (3000 CD ROMs) Structural vulnerability analysis on the nine CILSS member countries (report) Analysis of the impact of the cropping season (report) Analysis of data available in the Sahel (report) Analysis of soil capability for agriculture and animal husbandry in the Sahel (1000 CD-ROMs) Analysis of early warning systems (report)

Capacity Building • • • • • • • • •

Embryo regional DBMS of ARC Contribution to validating the climatic Database (DB) for NOAA and METEOSAT data of ARC Participation in the definition of the future climatic DBMS of WMO Training of 50 technical officers of the CILSS member countries for administering the DBMS Training of 120 technical officers of the CILSS member countries for utilizing the various tools; Workshop for sensitising the national and international institutions of the CILSS member countries Collaboration with other international programmes for training Sahelian officers Participation in the regional process in the field of vulnerability. Equipment of the CILSS member countries with 60 computers and accessories

Future development areas for the Sahel region

Information Challenges Facing Food Security 22

he Project is ending and has achieved very significant results going beyond early warning in order to better position itself in terms of a vision of Sahelian development in the face of the challenges of globalisation, regional cooperation and information. These results were achieved thanks to the positioning of the project in an enabling environment consisting of early warning and its demand for information.

This context made it possible to address themes relating to information in the perspective of data access, product dissemination in real time and cooperation between national and international institutions with the actual support of decision-makers. The demand for information at regional level made it possible to consider more thoroughly the region and ongoing processes. It helped us to understand that the food security of Sahelian populations is a regional issue.

In addition, it should be noted that the technological development in the field of information in terms of equipment, software and communication systems enabled the Sahelian institutions concerned with early warning, to go beyond the existing limits in the mastery of technologies for managing data and producing information to avoid being marginalized in the field of information.

However, the sustainability of the system in terms of early warning is related to the capacity for changing and adapting to technological progresses in order to keep the achievements. This can only be achieved by maintaining a partnership between national, sub-regional and international institutions.

The close link between food security and early warning in the Sahel does not depend only on endogenous factors, such as inadequate rainfall. It also depends on exogenous factors such as the international cash crop market and social stability in the west African region.

23 As a matter of fact, the results obtained can contribute, at the operational level: â&#x20AC;˘

To providing appropriate information for assessing the agro-pastoral cropping season, the monitoring of risk zones and preventing famines such as those experienced in the past;

â&#x20AC;˘

To keeping regional institutions in the international technical network and avoid their marginalization;

â&#x20AC;˘

To sustaining in the Sahel an environment conducive to technological development and know-how.

Therefore, they really need to be consolidated for the Sahel to keep up with an ever-changing world. To that effect, It is essential to set far-reaching objectives in terms of conduct of an information policy at regional level combining suitably the demand for sustainable early warning system models with the constraints associated with globalisation.

The project has also shown that early warning can help to predict and manage the effects of a more or less significant shortfall in production and that the context in which this phenomenon is developing can turn it into a crisis. Therefore, it is important that the conditions at the root of vulnerability change with a view to a greater capacity to cope with adverse events. The progress from a situational dimension to a structural dimension is necessary for reducing food insecurity in the Sahel and better preventing food crises. However, in the Sahel the structure of the various economic systems combine food security with poverty. Therefore, any development action should address both aspects at the same time. In this context the progress made in the field of information made by the project can play a vital role either in terms of data, methodologies and tools. This challenge is of course difficult to be taken up but possible if an enabling environment such as that experimented in the field of early warning is set up as part of the planning of socio-economic development.

Transfer and Sustainability of Early Warning Products at National and Regional Levels 24

he AP3Aâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s project activities in accordance with the objectives set made it possible to validate the methodologies and tools set up either at regional and national levels and to make sure that they are in line with the needs of national institutions. While trying to reduce the technological gap existing between the regional and national levels, it has been in a position to fit into the already existing system with a philosophy consisting of supplementing and valorising the existing achievements in the field of early warning and a will to ensure this interaction in order to help them become operational. The results of this approach helped tools and methodologies better work at various scales in order to meet traditional needs but also to stimulate new needs. This approach enabled to strengthen holistic approaches and arose the interest of the international community. As a matter of fact, the network developed for managing and updating databases with the participation of ARC and the institutions concerned in the CILSS member countries and that aimed at analysing vulnerability under the aegis of the Executive Secretariat of CILSS, with the participation of ARC and international institutions made it possible to demonstrate the viability of such a mechanism. This is an indication of the existence in the region of a will for establishing collaboration capable of fostering synergies in order to meet the need for information. It should be mentioned that such results were achieved through the choice made based on the unifying issues always included among national and regional priorities and those of the international community especially the issue of data and information products in the field of food security. The availability of a database with data covering a period extending up to the year 2000 set up by the project is an indication that it is possible to create in the Sahel a critical mass of information that does not exist anywhere in Africa in a coherent and harmonised way and enabling to carry out homogeneous analyses on a set of countries with heterogeneous technical levels. As a result, a policy based on the flow of information among national institutions, the regional level and the international community come into being among others.

The complexity and diversity of the Sahel with regards to the process of implementation of information systems resulted very often in the redundancy of applications developed so much so that there were often contradictions in the results published. Thus, this sour note that has long characterized the prevention of crises has considerably disrupted the actions taken in the field of food aid and development. The taking into account this contextual reality and the coherence of methodologies and their non-duplication made it possible to integrate the information products generated into the mechanisms for keeping watch in the field of food security and structural vulnerability analysis. This enabled to include them in both the existing tools and those set up during the project while promoting their transfer to the national level and regional mechanism.

In the process of internalisation, the adequacy in terms of operational organization constitutes the most compound element to be mastered and may require a longer consolidation period compared to the methodological development and training. Therefore, the considerable time saved in methodological development thanks to the progress made in terms of powerful micro-computers may be lost during the internalisation depending on the capacity for adaptation of the recipient. This is a key-indicator in technology transfer. Even in the case of the Project that followed an approach consisting of integration into the existing system, the consolidation of achievements becomes a necessity that depends on this indicator for this internalisation process to be irreversible.

Tools and products were generally transferred to the national level during the life of projects either through capacity building in thematic fields or internalisation. For this transfer, several training courses were conducted and aimed at the first users at national level with a view to effective utilization. This approach undoubtedly makes it possible to sustain the whole system while contributing to creating a network of Sahelian expertise. It is, however, important to underscore that the efforts for handing down knowledge may be limited due to the technological gap across the region.

Moreover, the issue of the impact of responsibility for the dissemination products and information constitute the central point in Sahelian institutions. It may also become a limiting factor as regard the sustainability of systems. Therefore, it becomes important to ensure to the systems a greater flexibility especially if there is a possibility to compare several results with the methods utilized. Based on this situation the annual meeting for preventing food crises held in 2001 underscored the convergence approach in its conclusions. This change in the options accepted for the Sahelian region requires nevertheless a political support that should be strongly backed by an adequate demand for the transfer to meet the various development stakeholdersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; needs. It is through such an approach that the role of the Sahel will be reasserted and supported in terms of information in the West African sub-region.

Data Collection, Management and Accessibility across the Sahel 26

he Sahel very often and wrongly considered as a region that is short of data seem ahead of most of Africa’s regions thanks to the dynamism of the CILSS system. The existing data constitutes a heritage that should be preserved and safeguarded. If data collection, archiving and management are activities carried out a matter of routine in the institutions with such a vocation, the valorization of this data is a major challenge they should take up. As a matter of fact, a datum is useful when it enables to manage a piece of information This valorization process is more effective when data quality complies with the required standards and is of easy accesst. Data valorisation is achieved not only through the production of useful information but also and necessarily via the dissemination of this information for applications. Thus, setting up a good information policy is translated into the setting up of a reliable collection system, the rational management of collected data, the efficient valorisation and extended dissemination of information produced. The issue of data includes several constraints, which are, among others, : •

Difficulties for collecting data : overall collection means are reduced or degraded (reduction in the number of data collecting stations, inadequacy or lack of trained personnel for data collection, the personnel and measuring devices are growing old, the personnel feel a lack of motivation, lack of financial resources for organizing surveys etc.). These difficulties have an impact on data quality, quantity and regularity.

•

Difficulties for centralizing, archiving and managing data : most often communication means do not facilitate data transmission from collection points to central governmental services for their archiving and processing. Other difficulties exist at the level of the personnel in charge of databases that has not received proper training in general.

•

Difficulties for accessing data: the marketing policies adopted by some countries and the problems for organizing data faced by some bodies do not contribute to facilitating their access and circulation.

In the Sahelian context, the utilization of data potential in the field of food security requires that some strict regulations binding data providers and users be laid down in the field of nomenclature, formats enabling their utilization and analysis for useful products. The lack of this objective in the field of information systems has long caused the information from the Sahel not to be credited. As a result, there was a low utilization of analyses carried out by international institutions. The division into sectors of Sahelian data is a typical feature that should also be taken into consideration. For a long time it has put a brake on the coherent and integrated utilization of data. The creation central information units or analysis units that aimed at centralizing information for analysis was always faced with the lack

of dialogue among the various areas of activity to which primary data belonged. This situation resulted in irrelevant, redundant and often contradictory. Series were fragmented due to the absence of a sustainable approach for collecting data. As a result, there was a gap in most information series. These numerous problems constituted undoubtedly objective limitations to the creation of harmonized systems for a shared management of information. In this field, the relentless efforts of the partners and the international community made it possible to set up several types of mechanisms for laying the foundation of information systems in the field of food security. The successive orientations in terms of early warning and prevention of crises shaped these mechanisms in terms of choice of data to be collected and observation scale. Nevertheless, it should be underscored that the nature of information to be utilized varied very slightly with the exception of some areas. On the other hand, several progresses were made in the development of methodologies for analysis and the acquisition of primary data.

From “Le Contexte de la Vulnérabilité Structurelle par Système de Production dans les Pays du CILSS”

27 In the face of the current issues that go beyond the prevention of crisis and embrace poverty even development issues, there are new needs for information. However, cheap mechanisms that can be in line with the internal resources and particularly capacities for analysis are the most realistic mechanisms that should be maintained in the Sahel. This does not necessarily mean a withdrawal of the primary sources provided by the partners of the Sahel so far but requires a choice of tools or methodologies enabling to have necessary reliable information in due time meeting the actual need in line with the sub-region’s conditions. As part of these options, the AP3A Project was geared towards a philosophy consisting of valorising what exists through a methodological choice enabling to achieve its objectives in an environment were an information-based culture is gradually being established. Such an approach required that information sharing be introduced through a system meeting international standards for access to relevant, accurate and complete data. This is a sine qua non condition for reducing risks. This data access was an incentive factor enabling to progress from a compartmentalized vision to a synoptic vision of food security problems that was translated into the promotion of thematic databases in several fields including agriculture, climatology and natural resources for example. This choice also made it possible to be open with regard to the utilization of the existing potential through the existing network of institutions, thanks to the facilities offered by the computer tools utilized today including the dissemination of CD-ROMs and the Internet. This form of valorisation was made possible through the degree of multi-scale analysis and the utilization of comparable data via the effort for data modelling. However, it should be underscore that in the face of weakening of mechanisms, the sustainability of the system can only be achieved through the sustainability of data collecting systems with everyone’s commitment, including the States and partners. This should make it possible to meet the requirements of current strategic issues in the field of poverty reduction policy and sustainable development with an expansion of the thematic databases to be promoted in other sectors.

Valorisation of Early Warning Products, their Development into Decision Support Tools as Part of Poverty Reduction 28

he discussion and reflection underway in the Sahel and at international level on food security and poverty in a context of sustainable development is influenced today by globalisation and it social impact.

In this context, priority is given to changes in farming system or their evolution as part of a global vision of development but also towards an approach aimed at sustainable reduction of the vulnerability of populations. These issues are closely related to the means implemented in order to apprehend poverty conditions. With regard to poverty and food security, the issue of measurements and assessment of impacts as well as the choice of geographical area the populations characterized as poor is yet an open-ended question. These systems, due to their design, are based on foundation in terms of data, which constitute the basis of situational analyses and their combination elements for identifying zones. In this processing line, mapping represents a powerful tool for viewing synoptic factors, in other words for conceptualising the systems geographically speaking. This is fully justified since poverty does not depend on determining primary factors but on a compound combination of several factors, whose spatial analysis requires some mapping. The current development of poverty maps shows the relevance of such an option. The needs for information as part of poverty control are many-sided as in the case of those existing in the field of food security. Thus, they include the taking into account of several factors at various scales but also require the progress from zones to the identification of population. This is possible with the structural vulnerability analyses carried out so far. The consistency between natural resources and the quest of food security is more crucial for the CILSS member countries that are affected by a gradual deterioration of soil fertility, the destruction of woody plants, the significant interannual variability of primary productivity. The impact of poverty on resources consists of their excessive tapping by the populations. This situation can question sustainable development. Thus, thanks to the current information systems, the methods developed makes it possible based on close time steps to diagnose resources conditions but also to predict and model their development since any reclamation action in the field of desertification requires twice as much time compared to degradation. Therefore, preventive actions are required for the sake of sustainability.

Among early warning products, the identification of risk zones due to its diachronic nature in the analysis of factors represent an important starting point in the analysis for determining poverty pocket. Thus, the identification of priority or predominant factors by structural analyses provides the necessary inputs for this type of analysis. The methods developed for food security can be reproduced by an assessment of relevant indicators in the evaluation of the risk factors that cause recurring poverty in Sahelian regions. The creation of an enabling environment making it possible to ensure continuous dialogue and the joint search for appropriate methodologies among various stakeholders working in information systems on food security/ poverty and that can be supported by the CILSS member countries and the international community is required.

AP3A DBMS version 5.1 CD-Rom AP3A VISUALCARTE version 1.0 CD-Rom AP3A WEB version .3.1 CD-Rom AP3A Soil Aptitudes CD-Rom

Agrhymet Regional Center

ITALIAN AID

WMO

Appropriate and on time information for food security in the Sahel

CILSS Executive Secretariat 03 BP 7049 Ouagadougou - BURKINA FASO Tel: ++226 374125 Fax: ++ 226 374132 E-mail : CILSS@fasonet.bf

Ap3a dossier