Shares Investment (Singapore) Issue 426 by PCL Printers (Pte) Ltd

In Focus: The Final Sparkling 6

ISSUE 426 16/01/12 - 05/02/12 www.sharesinv.com

Other Features A Visit Into Dr. Alexander Elder’s Trading Room Pimco Sees More RBA Easing on China Slowdown, Budget Tightening Fund Managers Move Back Into Commodities In December

The Quest For

The

Continues

ISSN 0218-8716

MICA (P) 181/11/2011 · PPS 1687/07/2012(022784) Raid / Advertisement / client / Osim / Spore_Version / uDivine_Cover_Ad.indd

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CONTENTS

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Issue 426

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16 Jan - 05 Feb 2012

Remember the six ‘SPARKLING GEMS’ featured in issue 425? As at 11 January, their weighted performance had beaten the STI by two percentage points. p6

Perspective FEATURES p4

Professor Chan Yan Chong’s Column

p6 The Quest For The Sparkling Twelve Continues p12 A Visit Into Dr. Alexander Elder’s Trading Room

p12

p14 Pimco Sees More RBA Easing On China Slowdown, Budget Tightening (Bloomberg) p15 A Broader Look At The Hong Kong Market p16 Fund Managers Move Back Into Commodities In December (Dow Jones Newswires) p17 Investors’ Corner p18 Book Parade (Passport To Profits) p20 Straits Times Index: Enter The Dragon; Enter The Bull? p22 Goldman Sachs Wins Dismissal Of Overstock’s Short Sale Suit (Bloomberg)

p15 IN FOCUS

p62

p24 Trend Spotting (Alpha Alliance) p26 Headliners

w w w. s h a r e s i nv. c o m

REGULARS

p32 p34 p36 p38 p40 p41 p42 p44 p46 p48 p50 p52 p54 p56 p58 p60 p61 p62 p68 p210 p234 p246 p252 p257 p268 p27

PUBLISHER

Market Indices

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Editor-in-chief Phan Tjun Sern Editorial Director Lew Poh Chan Senior Consultant Dr Ho Kah Leong Regional Research Editor Christopher Fun Senior Research Editor Xavier Lim Research Executives Choo Hao Xiang Daxx Chong Gerald Teo Jade Lee Louis Kent Lee Ong Qiuying Research Assistants Andy Chor Jason Liew Simeon Ang Chief Translator Catherine Mak Translators Choo Ai Loon Goh Lih Fang Tan Kim Joo Yong Chia Win

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We welcome contributions from readers, as well as from finance professionals. Please fax or e-mail (editorial@sharesinvestment.com) should you also have any queries, remarks or suggestions.

p22

Member of

• editorial desk •

peculation on hopes that the Chinese government will soon relax its monetary policies to support economic growth spurred strong buying across the regional stock markets. Notably, the Shanghai Composite Index jumped almost 6%, lifting the Hang Seng Index to end up over 400 points in two days. At the same time, we have China’s December international trade data showing weakening global demand due to the fallout from Europe’s debt crisis as well as a softening domestic demand environment. These data added to the odds of further monetary easing measures by the Beijing government. Meanwhile, Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, reported that its gross domestic product expanded at a pace of 3% in 2011, slower than the 3.7% pace it grew a year ago. Based on the preliminary data from Federal Statistics Office, most of the expansion occurred in the first half of the year, but shrank by a quarter percentage point in the final quarter of 2011. Specifically, Fitch Ratings reportedly called on the European Central Bank to buy its troubled euro zone debt to avert a “cataclysmic” euro-zone collapse. On the other hand, the US Federal Beige Book said economic activity improved at a modest to moderate pace in the final stretch of 2011, an improvement from the mid-November report where some districts reported growth at a “slow” pace. With earnings season having officially just begun, the spotlight has returned to the corporate earnings results. However, Europe will not Information in this guide has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. While every precaution is taken to ensure accuracy, the publisher accepts no liability for any error which may arise. The articles are based on the opinions of the various authors and do not represent the opinions of this publication and/or the opinions of the organisation he/she represents. In no event is SHARES INVESTMENT liable for all and/or any direct or indirect loss arising from any use or any reliance of any information provided.

be far from investors’ minds as the sovereign debt woes show little signs of abating. Hence, constructing a diversified portfolio enables you to reduce your exposure to market risks. Remember the first six ‘gems’ that were featured in issue 425 or have you missed that out? Do log on to our website, www.sharesinv.com, to read about them. Well, the six ‘gems’ performances have been nothing short of encouraging, outperforming that of the Straits Times Index by two percentage points as at 11 January. An auspicious start to the Lunar New Year! This issue, we shall unveil the next six ‘SPARKLING GEMS’ in our Shares Investment Portfolio. Flip no further to page 6. For traders who want to become successful, we have Dr Alexander Elder, a renowned professional stock trader, sharing with us his views and recommendations on the current stock market situation and how traders can improve themselves. Turn to page 12 to find out more. Have a joyous and prosperous Lunar New Year!

Editorial Team

Notice

Due to the Lunar New Year holidays, there will be no publication on 30 January. Our next issue (427) will be out on 06 February. All materials printed in SHARES INVESTMENT are protected under the copyright act. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without the written permission of the publisher. Information in the publication should not be taken as offer/ advice to buy or sell securities. We, our associated companies and / or their officers, directors and employees may own or have positions in securities mentioned in the publication, and may from time to time, add on to or dispose of such securities.

Column‖Prof Chan Yan Chong

remier Wen Jiabao, who spoke at a meeting with finance professionals in Beijing from 6 to 7 January, advised participants to stick closely to the roles that financial institutions are supposed to play. He added that financial institutions should deploy funds toward the development of the real economy to solve the current credit crunch. What is a real economy and what is not? By adopting the term “real economy”, what Premier Wen meant was the actual increase in productivity, the creation of employment and the upgrade in the standard of living for the people through investments in companies, factories and infrastructure. It is the same as owning shares of HSBC, which fluctuated from HK$50 to HK$100 and then back to HK$50 again. Shareholders continue to hold the shares but the mentality changes according to the share price. When the share price increases, investors feel happier but the wealth is, in fact, not considered wealth unless the shares have been sold and the cash circulated in the economy. 4

It is the same in the stock market and the property market whereby prices rise. The profit is merely paper profit when prices rise, but some investors choose to leverage on their assets to reinvest, only to end up losing everything. This is, however, still part of the real economy because companies raise funds via the capital market to invest in production. If the stock market and property markets turned weak, companies would face problems raising funds and properties would have no buyers, hence, affecting the real economy. There is still some relationship between the real economy and speculation, but it is important to strike a balance so as to prevent the real economy from turning into a bubble. Hong Kong’s economy turned “unreal” in 2003 when property prices plunged because there were too many people with negative assets. Who would want to spend money back then? The same is happening in the US where consumers are not spending but it is important not to overly-suppress people from speculating. Premier Wen also mentioned that his focus firmly

remains on curbing speculative activities while boosting confidence in the stock market. The stock market did not rise immediately after his comments but took a while to digest his speech. I believe that the big boys made use of the opportunity to buy before pushing up the share prices. His rhetorical speech on controlling and curbing speculative activities give rise to the belief that he is antispeculation. It is in contrast to his remarks about wanting to inject confidence into the stock market. Perhaps, what he meant was no excessive speculation as it will hamper the day-to-day operations of the financial markets while hinting that the government will intervene if there is too much pessimism in the stock market. Singapore’s fourth quarter GDP shrank 4.9% versus the previous quarter, resulting in companies asking employees to take either no-pay leave or work only on alternate days. Singapore is more dependent on the developed economies compared to Hong Kong and Singapore’s weak performance is a sign that the western countries, too, have started to go downhill.

China has once again encouraged domestic consumption, so should we be buying stocks?

World leaders have warned its people that 2012 will be a tough year but the stock market started the year with a bang. The oil stocks surged, due to the possibility of China lifting the cap on oil prices. There have been long queues at the petrol stations in China because it was rumoured that the owners of the stations refused to sell petrol believing that prices are about to rise. The constant changes in China’s policies have created many tycoons who have firsthand privileged information. The parent company of China Petroleum has been increasing its shareholding in the company in order to boost confidence in the stock market and partly due to the fact that it does not want foreigners to have a share of the resources pie. The shares of China Petroleum are trading at single-digit PE – too cheap

to be sold to foreigners. The shares of the oil companies have outperformed the Hang Seng Index. There are lots of positives for oil stocks especially after President Obama parked an aircraft carrier near Iran to boost his “war hero” credentials. Oil prices will surge should a conflict break out and this is good for oil and oil-related companies. Apart from oil stocks, I also like coal stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining (HK: 1171) because this company has been on an acquisition trail, which is in-line with China’s interest to invest in resource stocks. China has become the world’s biggest consumer of energy as it is the factory of the world. Renewable energy is far too expensive and natural resources are limited, hence, it is likely that future conflicts between China and

the US will be fought on the resources front. Can the US economy recover without QE III? It is a good thing if the US can make it without more stimulus measures. China has been worried about inflation because of the quantitative easing in the US. China has once again encouraged domestic consumption, so should we be buying stocks? I believe we should buy before and after the Chinese government has done so because the latter may take a while to introduce policies so patience is needed. Can investors afford to wait? The Spanish and Italians have been selling short-term bonds no longer than two years. As long as they do not default within these two years, the ratings will not fall to a B. The banks can make use of the Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) to borrow from the European Central Bank at 1% for three years followed by investing in highyield government bonds. The short-term bonds have only attracted strong interest because of the LTRO. Only when the long-term Spanish and Italian bonds manage to attract strong interest, then can we declare that confidence has returned.

Perspective text : Editorial Team

The Quest For

Sparkling The

Continues

We bet investors have been eagerly waiting for the final “show hand” of the remaining six gems in the Shares Investment Portfolio after the unveiling of the first six in issue 425. Let us jump straight to the next SPARKLING SIX! Stable

Moving Towards

Basic Food Commodities Space

hile heightened volatility in 2011 caught up with the commodity sector, with signs of margin pressures becoming more apparent in small players, soft commodity players like Wilmar International and Olam International (Olam) still show a resilient outlook. Compared to hard commodity peers, they are expected to perform better. Among these soft commodity players, the relatively recession-resistant commodity portfolio of Olam, with more than 70% in food commodities, is what intrigues us. To further insulate itself from counterparty, credit and inventory risks, the bulk of its exposure is forward-hedged. Banking on the resiliency of its food category, which also registered the largest share of net contribution at 32.2% in 1Q12, Olam has 6

shifted its gears towards the production and growth of staples in Nigeria. In December, Olam announced its investment plans totalling US$99.2 million to set up a 6,000 hectare paddy farming and rice milling facility as well as expand its wheat milling capacity at Crown Flour Mills in the country. Olam’s route to growing its feed is a positive. The production of paddy and its subsequent processing into rice in the country is a fundamentally attractive industry due to high import cost duties imposed and favourable government policies spurring local production. Based on the investments aforementioned, Olam’s total outreach in the two staple fields will expand considerably in Nigeria. This could see Olam in an advantageous position to select attractive value chains to integrate into its broader network in the Nigerian staple market.

Stable

Prospering On

Asia’s Rising Wealth

anked as the world’s strongest bank in May 2011 by Bloomberg for its strong fundamentals and business growth potential from its regional expansions, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) is our ideal choice amongst the three local banks. Trailing at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times for FY10, OCBC has the lowest non-performing loans ratio of 0.7% as at 30 September 2011 whereas those of DBS and UOB were at 1.3% and 1.5% respectively. Testimony to its success in business development, OCBC, which grabbed the headlines in 2009 when it acquired the private banking business of ING Group for US$1.46 billion in cash, has seen this private banking franchise stage an impressive asset under management (AUM) growth of more than 80% to US$29 billion as at

30 September 2011 compared to pre-acquisition AUM of US$15.8 billion as at August 2009. Besides being quick in seizing opportunities in Asia’s burgeoning rich, the foresight to grab the opening is paramount. This can be observed from OCBC’s moves to widen its distribution channels in Malaysia, which currently contributes about 22% of total revenue for OCBC. OCBC plans to capture a greater share in Malaysia, including Islamic banking — a capital market estimated at more than US$1 trillion — and Takaful insurance. The bank entered an agreement to acquire five companies from its 63.5%-owned listed subsidiary, PacificMas, for RM428.2 million, to streamline its operations. Notably, Bloomberg also recently reported that OCBC is acquiring a 49%-stake in the brokerage business of Malaysia’s KAF-Seagroatt & Campbell to bolster its presence in Malaysia.

High Yielding

Indonesia's Growing Retail Sales Not To Be Overlooked

ndonesia’s retail market is no doubt eye-catching given that the country is being ranked the world’s third most populous nation with nearly 246 million people. As Indonesia’s economy is driven mainly by domestic demand, Indonesian retail sector, safely to say, still remains largely unfazed by the slowdown in the global economy, backed by hefty retail sales and rapid modernisation. According to Central Bank of Indonesia, the country’s retail sales grew 26.6% in November from a year ago, slower than October’s 30.7%. Yet, Indonesian retailers remain sanguine that sales will increase in the next three to six months, particularly the first quarter of 2012 due to New Year celebration. In this, we direct our attention to Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

(LMIRT), which had earlier raised net proceeds of $330.5 million to partially fund its two highquality asset acquisitions in Indonesia, namely Pluit Village and Plaza Medan Fair. Excitingly, the net property income yields of Pluit Village and Plaza Medan Fair stood high at 10.8% and 7.4% respectively, and compared well to LMIRT’s FY10 existing portfolio of 7.5%. Also, the opportunistic purchases are expected to boost LMIRT’s distributable income up by 60.5% from FY10’s $47.9 million, while distributable yield would increase from 8.38% to 8.43%. Not to mention, with a gearing ratio remaining fairly unchanged at around 10% post acquisition, we believe LMIRT has ample debt headroom for additional acquisitions, further approaching its goal of building a $4 billion portfolio over the next four years. 7

High Yielding

Keynes Spells Growth While

Dividends Hold Key

spoused by Keynesian economics, construction of infrastructure is the easiest and fastest way to stimulate the economy in a period of downturn. This is clearly evident as the Singapore government has set aside more than $1.6 billion each year in the recent two years chiefly for the local road network. In 2012, we opine that this figure will remain the same or grow as we see evidence of the government’s intent through the acquisition of the Rochor site for the construction of the 21km North-South Expressway. Following further downward revisions of Singapore’s GDP forecast for 2012, analysts foresee expansionary fiscal policies in Budget 2012, which will be beneficial to overall infrastructure in Singapore. Construction seems to have returned to its former darling after recent upheavals in the private property segment. As the island-state’s sole listed road

specialist, OKP Holdings (OKP), is at the forefront to be a beneficiary of such policies. Currently, OKP has, in its pipeline, several infrastructure projects including the improvement and widening of several expressways as well as construction of roads, drains and sewers. These contracts, worth $433.4 million, are expected to be fulfilled by FY14 and thus provide some earnings visibility in the mid-term. Going forward, the projected increase in contracts for expressway widening and the construction of a new expressway would spell various new opportunities for OKP. Analysts at OCBC noted that OKP has enjoyed a high tender success rate of 94% and thus believe that the firm will be successful in some of its tenders. Not only does OKP provide earnings stability and growth, the counter also offers a relatively high dividend yield at slightly more than 7%, inclusive of the special dividends that have been issued for the last two consecutive years.

Growth

Providing The

All-In-One Lodging he largest does not necessarily equate to the best. For Global Logistic Properties’ (GLP) case, the company is a distinct manifestation of such a rare combination. GLP boasts an unparalleled network of modern logistics facilities in Asia, with a presence in 28 key cities across China and Japan. This multi-location web is a natural pull. Evidently, lease ratios in GLP’s portfolio as of 30 September 2011 were over 90% while retention rates stood in excess of 75%. GLP’s integrated schemes, which allow

customisation and flexible arrangements to match its customers’ needs, embody those of a best-in-class. While GLP finished 2011 19% lower, we think that 2012 may mark a change. Beyond the modern logistics facilities scarcity situation the two biggest nations in Asia face, the reignition of Chinese government’s commitment to shore up domestic consumption augurs well for GLP, whose China portfolio has 76% leaned towards domestic-related demand. Beginning this year, a national program is implemented with the objective of significantly

boosting local retail sales and production. Plus, the negative global macroeconomics outlook may induce hastening of the process. Meanwhile, in Japan, GLP’s latest collaboration with China Investment Corporation to snap up 15 assets for a relatively cheaper US$1.6 billion further stretches its leadership position in the country. According to DBS

Vickers, the transaction is projected to boost FY13 bottom line by 13%. Furthermore, the stock is also trading at about 13.7% discount to its net asset value at the start of the year and the fact that the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation is an anchor stakeholder of GLP alone, is enough to stir interest.

Growth

Enhanced Government Support

Bolsters Earnings Visibility lagued by a series of high profile corporate governance blow-ups, S-Chips have long been shunned by investors. However, as China holds too big a promise to ignore, we believe one can ride the nation’s mighty rise through careful stock-picking. Given China’s planned-capitalism economic model, industries that have been identified for priority development are poised to benefit from the trickling down of government funds in the form of incentives and increased investments. In China’s 12th Five Year Plan (2011 to 2015), emphasis was shifted from chasing heady economic numbers to achieving ‘higher quality growth’. In particular, environmental protection was highlighted as one of the seven priority industries, injecting earnings visibility to companies such as Sound Global. Established in 1993, Sound Global has grown into one of the leading integrated water and wastewater treatment solutions

Weighing The Portfolio

These six gems, together with last issue’s six, make up the SPARKLING TWELVE in the Shares Investment Portfolio for 2012. So, how is this equity portfolio weighed? Last issue, we revealed a table showing the weightings assigned to different styles taking

providers in China. For its final contract win of last year, the company secured a Rmb94 million build-operate-transfer wastewater treatment plant project with a concession period of 30 years. For the whole of 2011, DBS Vickers estimated total contract wins at more than Rmb1.9 billion — quadrupling the amount in 2010 — and noted that order book is likely to maintain at record level of Rmb2.4 billion or higher. In its 3Q11 financial results, Sound Global’s revenue spiked 38.8% to Rmb1.7 billion on increased contribution from the operation and maintenance as well as turnkey engineering, procurement and construction segments. Gross profit margin improved to 32.4%, leading profit to surge 70.2% to Rmb306.9 million. Over a seven-year period (FY03 to FY10), its performance came in equally eye-catching with the top and bottom lines posting compounded annual growth rates of 31.4% and 29% respectively.

on the view of a moderate risk taker and we have categorised these stocks into their various styles. The next step would be balancing the portfolio accordingly to the desired exposure to different risk levels and industries you are positive in. Flip over for a peek at how we do it. 9

SI Portfolio 2012 Portfolio Information

Performance Chart

Portfolio Size: $104,905 (as at 11 January 2012) Initial Investment: $100,000 Benchmark: FTSE Straits Times Index Portfolio Inception: 30 December 2011 Review Period: Quarterly As At 30 December 2011 Holdings

Proportion Share of Amount Price Portfolio

106 105 104 103 102 101 100

99 98 97

30/12/2011

SI Portfolio

11/1/2012

STI

Source: Compiled by Shares Investment

As At 11 January 2012 Share Price

Performance Amount Since Inception

OCBC

15.67%

$7.83

$15,660

$7.97

$15,940

+1.79%

Keppel Corp

9.31%

$9.30

$9,300

$10.11 $10,110

+8.71%

ComfortDelGro

5.68%

$1.42

$5,680

$1.445

$5,780

+1.76%

10.01%

$2.50

$10,000

$2.55

$10,200

+2.00%

Olam

6.39%

$2.13

$6,390

$2.27

$6,810

+6.57%

Ezion

7.21%

$0.655

$7,205

$0.715

$7,865

+9.16%

GLP

8.81%

$1.76

$8,800

$1.82

$9,100

+3.41%

Q&M Dental

6.16%

$0.77

$6,160

$0.85

$6,800

+10.39%

Super Group

7.93%

$1.32

$7,920

$1.38

$8,280

+4.55%

Sound Global

7.00%

$0.50

$7,000

$0.555

$7,770

+11.00%

Lippo Malls

8.41%

$0.35

$8,400

$0.365

$8,760

+4.29%

OKP

7.42%

$0.53

$7,420

$0.535

$7,490

+0.94%

Performance As At 11 January 2012

Since Inception

SI Portfolio

+4.91%

STI

+3.81%

Industry Breakdown

Services 21.27%

Commerce 6.34% Construction 7.26% Manufacturing 7.96% Investment Trusts 8.42%

Finance 15.45% Transport/ Storage/ Communication 15.14%

Properties 8.60% Multi-Industry 9.55%

Style Breakdown High Yield 15.68%

Stable 46.49% Growth 37.83%

The information contained in the factsheet does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and is used solely for illustrative purposes only.

Perhaps, our portfolio has provided a good inspiration for you to start rebalancing your own portfolio. However, as an age-old adage suggests not to put all your eggs in the same 10

basket, it is also important to set aside cash reserves for rainy days. With our SPARKLING TWELVE, we wish all investors a prosperous Lunar New Year filled with dazzling returns!

Corporate In the Digest Spotlight text : Xavier Lim

A Visit into Dr. Alexander Elder’s

n this volatile market, Dr. Alexander Elder is one of the world’s most talked-about professional traders. His contribution to the trading community through his best-selling books and classes has helped many people to become successful traders. He is the author of ‘Come into My Trading Room’, Barron’s 2002 Book of the Year, and ‘Trading for a Living’, which is considered as modern classic among traders. He is also the originator of Traders’ Camps week-long classes for traders, as well as the Spike group for traders. The year 2011 was difficult and complex for global economies and many economists are expecting that the year 2012 will be no different. What does Dr. Elder see ahead, and what advice does he have for traders? Dr. Elder shared his views with Shares Investment (Singapore) in an exclusive interview. We discussed his views on the current stock market situation as well as his thoughts on trading and how traders can

Trading Room

improve themselves. His comments follow: Shares Investment: Do you think the volatility witnessed in 2011 is an “unfinished business” that will continue affecting the markets in 2012? Dr. Elder: Investors and traders must understand that all markets are cyclical, it can peak as well as slide to the bottom and rise to the peak again. When one cycle is finished, the next begins. Based on my studies, we are in the bull market since March 2009. However, stock markets experienced a correction last year in May, and I foresee that this correction, which has been going on for 7 months, is ending. Investors and traders must also be aware that volatility is also cyclical. During a bull market correction, stock market can be very volatile, but when the correction ends, volatility will decrease. SI: In your book, “The New Sell & Sell Short”, you have included an intensive study

guide with over 100 questions and answers. Can you tell us how it can benefit readers in their trade? Dr. Elder: Normally when you read a book, you don’t absorb everything unless you practise what you have learned. For example, a student will not be able to score high points in his exams if he did not attempt to do past years’ questions. By simply listening to what the teacher teaches will not prepare him well for his exams. Similarly, in trading, the best form of study is to solve tactical problems from real market situations, essentially placing you into a professional trader’s mind and trying to figure out the stock market’s next move. These 100 over exercises will prompt readers to think on their own to determine what type of trading plans they should adopt - when to take profits and set stops at what price? SI: Since selling short carries a certain amount of risks, what advice would you give to someone who is new to short selling?

Dr. Elder: I must emphasize that short selling is not a strategy for beginners and inexperienced traders, only traders who know what they are doing should attempt this. Theoretically, you can lose more than when you just buy a stock. I would advise those experienced traders who want to learn short selling to start off with small positions. When traders take on a larger position beyond their comfort zone, they may succumb to emotional stresses and end up making irrational decisions. It is important to trade high liquidity stocks so as to allow yourself to get in and out easily, to enter and exit a stock at a good price. SI: Do you screen all your stocks using the Triple Screen System or do you add certain variables to it, depending on the industry the stock is in? Dr. Elder: I use the Triple Screen System to screen all stocks and any stock indexes. I will only improvise and finetune the system from time to time to suit current market changes. The Triple Screen System begins by using a longer-term trend following technique and a shorter-term overbought/oversold indicator to time the trades. However, most traders only pay attention to the daily charts, but if you begin by analyzing the weekly chart first your perspective will be much broader. By analyzing the long-term chart first allows you to take up your strategic positioning. Next, take up your tactical positioning by using a daily chart to find buy or sell setups

in confirmation with the daily and weekly chart readings. When the weekly chart shows an uptrend, any declines on the daily charts will be your buying opportunities. SI: What do you think are the common pitfalls that most traders experience in their journey? What advice do you have for those who want to trade for a living? Dr. Elder: Traders go through different stages as they work through their trading journey. Some improve themselves and move on to a higher stage, and others don’t. I would say that a trader should have his foundations right from the start. Many are too eager to get to the finish line and forget to have a good start. At the early stage, beginners have no knowledge in trading and don’t understand that stock market is complex. They have to acquire this knowledge by reading books and attending courses. Once they have learned this knowledge, they will begin to realize that even with all of the trading methods they have acquired, sometimes they win, sometimes they lose. Beginners who went through stage one will become much more aware of the importance of psychology. This is where they start planning their trades and stick to the plan. This is stage two. I urge traders to have two goals in mind for every trade first is to make money but not every trade will be successful. Second, he needs to learn from his experience. I notice that many traders simply search for another op-

portunity to trade after they have made a loss due to wrong move. This is wrong! You can never be a better trader by not learning from your mistakes. I advise traders to keep track of all their trades. Keep a diary and record every single trade. Write down your plans for each trade, this will make you slow down, preventing you from acting impulsively and trading in an impulsive manner. Keeping a diary helps a trader to understand his mistakes and correct them. This will make you to be a better trader! Before you think of trading for a living, start with little money; trade small size, learn your moves. Don’t try to make a lot of money at first because you will only be stressing yourself and losing that money. Remember, it’s going to take time to become a professional trader. SI: One last question before we conclude this interview, if everything held constant, other than the eurozone crisis continuity, do you think it’s possible to see at least some kind of rebound in the first half of 2012? Dr. Elder: Yes, we are in the bull market since March 2009. A cyclical bull market normally lasts an average of four to five years and then we get a bear market. I believe that we are in the middle of a cyclical bull market, which should move up higher this year. For traders who want to become successful, now you have a great opportunity to find out directly from Dr. Alexander Elder! Details are in the inside front cover page! 13

Perspective text : Bloomberg

Pimco Sees More

RBA Easing

On China Slowdown, Budget Tightening

he Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have to cut interest rates further as China’s economic expansion slows, according to Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco), manager of the world’s biggest bond fund. The Australian government’s commitment to return the budget to surplus in 2012-13 will also add impetus for additional policy easing, the money manager said in an e-mailed report on 9 January. Demand from China for resources has fueled a mining boom that has buoyed Australia’s economy and kept it out of recession for two decades. A government report due on 10 January may show that export growth in China, Australia’s biggest overseas market, was the slowest in two years. RBA policy makers have cut the bank’s main lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its past two meetings as 14

Europe’s debt crisis threatens global growth. “We expect the global environment to be less supportive, with lower than consensus growth forecasts for China in particular,” Robert Mead, Pimco’s head of portfolio management in Australia, wrote. “We think the RBA will need to ease further in 2012.” Traders are betting that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will lower the benchmark by a further 0.75 percentage point by May, futures prices show. They indicate a 84% chance of a 0.25 percentage point cut at the next policy meeting on 7 February.

Chinese Exports

China’s exports rose 13.4% in December from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey before the data is released on 10 January. Excluding distortions in January and February each year related to the Lunar New Year, that would be the

smallest increase since export growth resumed in December 2009. The Australian government said in November that it would cut A$6.8 billion (US$6.9 billion) in spending to meet Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s pledge to deliver a budget surplus even as revenues fall. This more restrictive fiscal policy, along with “tight” financial conditions will increase the likelihood of monetary easing, Pimco said. Australian 10-year government notes advanced, with yields falling four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 3.76% as of 12:33 p.m. on 9 January in Sydney. The nation’s debt maturing in more than a year returned 14.4% last year, the third-best performance after the U.K. and New Zealand, according to indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. Australia’s dollar appreciated against 14 of its 16 major counterparts last year and fell 0.6% to US$1.0165 on 9 January.

Perspective text : Louis Wong

r A Broade e h T t A k o o L

Hong Kong Market

ong Kong stocks plummeted in 2011, with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropping 4,601 points or about 20% to a year-end closing at 18,434. It has been a volatile year with the HSI rebounding to 24,469 last April and hitting the trough at 16,170 last October. The US stock market has surprisingly outperformed major markets across the globe in 2011 as the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to squeeze in a 5.5% gain for 2011. The HSI was however dragged down by China as the Shanghai Composite Index shed 22% in 2011, rendering it the second worst performing market among major global equities markets, only outpacing India’s 24% decline. Over the last year, glob15

al equites markets had been plagued by concerns about the European debt crisis and fear of a US double-dip recession and a hard landing in China. Entering 2012, these uncertainties will continue to prevail. There is little hope for a quick fix to resolve Europe’s debt crisis and the longer the European Union and European Central Bank drag their feet on taking decisive actions, the issue will become all the more thornier. On a lighter note across the Atlantic, the labour and housing markets in the US have shown signs of improvement, alleviating market fears of a double-dip recession. The Chinese government maintained a tightening policy stance last year due to rising inflation. As inflation has ebbed over the last few months and the economy has markedly slowed down,

a shift to a more accommodative stance will not come as a surprise. The People’s Bank of China reduced banks’ reserve requirement ratio last December, marking it the first time in the last three years. It has also been reported that the Chinese government is planning new policies to boost domestic consumption. One can expect more proactive fiscal policies this year to spur economic growth. The China stock market has fallen two years in a row and valuations are “rather cheap”. With policy loosening on the horizon, the China stock market may buck the downtrend this year after bottoming out in the first quarter. This will breathe life into the Hong Kong stock market. It will be a buying opportunity if the HSI dips below 18,000 and the upside target stands at 22,000. 15

Perspective text : Dow Jones Newswires

Fund Managers Move Back Into Commodities In December

sian fund managers moved back into commodities in December driven by bullish expectations about the price of gold, although intensifying uncertainties about Europe’s political and economic fortunes have kept broader risk appetite extremely fragile. Challenging conditions for asset allocation continued in the month as the uncertain outlook forced investors to be extra selective in their investment choices. While risk aversion is keeping market participants away from global equities, investors are also very cautious about remaining too exposed to cash on expectations central banks may look at further easing measures. A Dow Jones Newswires poll of fund managers showed investors cut their weighting on cash down the “Slightly Underweight” scale in December from November, but increased their footing on commodities to “Slightly Cash Bonds Equities Commodities

Overweight” from “Neutral.” “With the evolution of the euro crisis remaining highly unpredictable, the outlook for financial markets has become very fluid,” ING Investment Management Asia Pacific said. “Depending on economic and political news, investors continue to switch rapidly between higher or lower levels of risk.” The rapid vacillation between “risk-on” and “risk-off” trades for much of this year as political deliberations in Europe fail to stabilize markets has prompted investors to look to safe havens such as gold. A separate survey by Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation in December showed 56% of fund managers polled believe gold is the most promising commodity to invest in over the next 12 months. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has risen 13%. Asia ex-Japan bonds also continue to remain in favor offering investors exposure to growth markets with the more secure structure of

Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 -0.50 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.50 +0.25 +0.25 0 +0.25 0 -0.50 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 0 +0.25 +0.50 +0.25 0 0 0 0 +0.50

Overall Global Weightings: -0.5 to 0 is Slightly Underweight, 0 is Neutral, 0 to +0.5 is Slightly Overweight

fixed-income. Fund managers increased their footing on Asia ex-Japan bonds to “Overweight” from “Slightly Overweight.” J . P. M o r g a n A s s e t Management said it continues to favor credit through exposure to U.S. high yield and emerging market debt. “We are running reduced levels of risk but taking a more tactical approach given the extreme fluidity of markets,” J.P. Morgan said. According to fund tracker EPFR, global bond funds took in US$1.1 billion in the week ended 14 December, while equity funds surrendered US$9.5 billion in their fourth straight week of net redemptions. Each month, Dow Jones Newswires surveys fund managers on portfolio weighting recommendations for the succeeding months, with most looking at a 12-month horizon. Respondents for December's survey were Amundi Asset Management, ING Investment Management, Invesco, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Prudential Asset Management and Schroders Investment Management. For the survey, each participant was asked to assign recommendations to each asset class. The weightings from each fund manager were then averaged.

INVESTORS’ CORNER compiled : Andy Chor

Cache Logistics Trust Price – $0.98 Target – $1.14 We project Cache Logistics Trust would rake up 10.8% and 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in gross revenue and distribution per unit respectively for 4Q11 results as rental income is bolstered by recent acquisitions. This represents a yield of 8.4% as compared to the industry average of 7.4%. Next, while the Singapore economy is expected to slow down, the effects will be limited as it had prior master lease arrangements with Sponsor CWT and C&P Holdings. Its weighted average lease to expiry was at 4.9 years as at 30 Sep-11, better than its peers’ median of 3.5 years. Furthermore, its leases usually encompass locked-in annual rental hike of 1.5-2% and a triple-net lease structure for the contracted lease term, limiting downside risk and ensuring potential for organic growth. Together with recent government initiatives on industrial space, we expect better stability in end-user demand and industrial property prices, as well as opportunities for asset injection. Maintain BUY. – OCBC Investment (10 Jan) China Minzhong Food Corporation Price – $0.875 Target – $1.47 China Minzhong (CMZ) has commenced operations at its New Industrial Park processing facilities in Putian City, Fujian Province, tripling its processing capacity. Backed by a healthy orderbook, the new plant is expected to reach full utilisation within three years. In addition,

the plant is expected to lift its 2H12 performance, especially since it coincides with the peak season. China has announced the lifting of the value-added tax on the distribution of vegetables. While this development will lower the cost of sales for wholesale retailers, it will not have any direct impact on upstream players like CMZ. However, it does signal a shift in policy to one which encourages supply growth. Despite global economic uncertainty, CMZ experienced continued demand in vegetables and expects total export orderbook in FY12 to surpass that in the previous year. In addition, CMZ’s ability and flexibility to switch between various processing methods will enable the group to cater to different demands pertaining to different regions at a short notice. We maintain our BUY rating. – Kim Eng (10 Jan) Singapore Press Holdings Price – $3.70 Target – $3.88 Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), the country’s dominant media company, posted 1Q12 earnings of $97.5m, down 4.7% y-o-y, in line with consensus. SPH’s revenue increased by 4.2% y-o-y driven mainly by the Property segment (up 27.2% y-o-y), which saw Clementi Mall’s first ‘full quarter’ contribution of $9m. Additionally, Paragon, the Property segment’s largest contributor, posted $37.9m, up 2.6% on the back of higher rental rates. Going forward, we don’t see any catalyst for upside earnings surprises especially with income from the Property segment being stable. Moreover,

with Singapore’s projection of an economic slowdown in 2012, SPH’s core Newspaper and Magazine business is likely to see further decline in both revenue and profits. With SPH’s track record of cutting dividends during times of general economic slowdown, we maintain our HOLD rating. – RBS (10 Jan) Genting Singapore Price – $1.57 Target – $1.98 Observing from a recent visit, delays are expected in the development of Hotel Aquarius and the installation of 2,500 slot machines. Amidst efforts to have the slot machines operationally ready, Genting Singapore (GENS) had rescheduled the opening of the hotel to coincide with the Lunar New Year to tap into the surge in crowds. GENS remains hopefully that junkets will be legalised in 2012 and is making preliminary operational preparation. This entails being compliant with the tightening of casino promotion and advertising regulations. In addition, GENS plans to collaborate with surrounding hotels to cross-sell their products in bid to address the high utilization of its hotel inventory. Longer term, GENS hopes to bid for potential sites for hotel construction. Despite the slight delay in the opening of Hotel Aquarius and the slot machines, earnings forecast is unchanged and will be monitored for additional delays. As new capacity should help drive earnings increases in 2012, we maintain our BUY call. – Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (9 Jan) 17

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Perspective text : Gabriel Gan

Straits Times Index:

Enter The Dragon; Enter The Bull?

eing a multi-racial, multi-cultural and multi-lingual society with predominantly Singaporean Chinese, it is not hard to notice that the Chinese New Year is celebrated widely in Singapore. The Chinese New Year is also the time when people usher in the New Year by clearing out the old (including bad luck) and welcoming the new (including better luck). As we say goodbye to the Year of the Rabbit, we must remember that the stock market is still plagued by uncertainties despite the arrival of the Year of the Dragon. Hence, it will be good to stay optimistic, but constantly remind oneself of the dangers lurking. We have got off to a solid start in 2012, with the stock markets all making good gains on positive news from the US and China. While Europe failed to provide new inspiration, investors must be glad that no news from Angela Merkel and gang is good news.

US To Keep Markets Afloat

It now seems like a recession in the US is becoming less likely, so much so that Fed officials have openly remarked that expanding bond purchases and/or more quantitative easing looks unlikely given that the economy has become much stronger

than earlier expected. The jobs data, ranging from the increase in private sector employment, the decrease in weekly jobless claims and the December unemployment figures, all point to the fact that jobs are being created in the US despite fears that jobs would be scarce amid global uncertainties. However, we must be mindful that the final quarter of 2011 coincided with the socalled festive and shopping season, hence, a weakening of the jobs data may still be possible in the first quarter of 2012 if the feel-good factor does not filter through to this year. With more than two-thirds of the economy powered by consumers, the US economy will almost certainly receive a huge boost should the jobs front improve further. This will be the key to the US economy in 2012 apart from the fact that the Obama administration will want to strengthen the economy in an election year. A strong start to the year is good for the stock market especially in an election year because eight out of eight times the S&P 500 managed a gain in the January of the election year, the stock markets always ended up higher at the end of the year. With an improving economy and the possibility of a stock market rally in the US in anticipation of the presidential elec-

tion, the picture certainly looks bright. To throw a wet blanket on the bulls, it is almost a certainty that the Republicans will want to create obstacles for the Democrats by blocking all policies that President Obama introduces. Hence, we can expect more debates, disagreements and quarrels to arise especially over outstanding issues that have plagued the US economy since 2011. From a technical point of view, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has risen to levels not seen since July last year, which is a good sign especially after it broke and held above the 12,300 near-term resistance level. Beyond the 12,300 level, we are looking at a major resistance zone between 12,750 to 12,850 – a tough nut to crack considering it was the “twin peaks” of 2010. It is likely that the optimism may carry the index to the resistance zone but crossing the resistance will require very major developments such as Europe resolving the crisis issue. On the other hand, falling below 12,000 followed by 11,800 will be bad news, but not a disaster.

A Good Year For China’s Stock Market

Over to China, Commerce Minister Chen Deming’s comments about China boosting

consumption to fend off a global slowdown were welcomed by investors. His remarks were viewed by investors as a sign that the government will further loosen monetary policy after cutting the reserve ratio requirement (RRR) for Chinese banks late last year. Also, the increase in money supply and growth in lending also gave rise to optimism that the Chinese government has indeed started the loosening cycle that investors have been yearning for. After more than a year of tightening since October 2010 when interest rates and the RRR were raised, China’s stock market started to slide and it had a detrimental effect on Hong Kong and Singapore. The Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng Index both fell more than 20% in 2011 on fears that the tightening measures would lead to China’s economy suffering from a hard-landing as well as a bursting of the property bubble. With the local governments earning most of their keeps from land sales, a plunge in property prices will not go down well with almost everyone involved in the property sector, hence, a collapse in prices will be the last thing the central government wants to see. Moreover, the local governments are all highly-geared through financing vehicles, hence, it would be disastrous for China’s economy and property sector to experience a collapse. When news that China’s lending in December was announced, the Shanghai Composite rallied almost 120 points within the next two trading days, gaining 5.5%. China’s stock market is very much policy-driven, hence, more good

news from the government will be a major positive for the stock market. Whenever China had policies such as an interest rate and RRR hike to announce, the government almost always chose to do it during the weekends or just before the Golden Week holidays. Will the Chinese government deliver a Chinese New Year present just before the holiday? The sudden rally in the Shanghai Composite was still considered a relief rally that does little to change the technical picture especially when the index is still trading below 2,320 points – a support formed by a bottom in 2010 as well as 2011. The key to sustaining this rally will be first taking out 2,320 points with ease, followed by a rally towards 2,400 points and staying above it. While oversold technical indicators do support such a huge rally, dampened policy expectations may end the rally and see the index retest its recent lows.

Europe, Please Do Not Poop On The Party!

Enough has been said about Europe’s dilemma and how long it has taken them to try and solve the never-ending problems so we shall not discuss them any further. The three key drivers – improving US economy, US presidential election and China’s loosening of monetary policy – that have the potential to push stock markets higher will be negated by a worsening of Europe’s problems. An inability to stop the crisis from worsening and further delays in introducing policies to get Europe out of the rut will be major negatives, and so are Greece’s inability to get fresh funds in March and

possible downgrades of sovereign credit ratings by the rating agencies. On a more positive note and now that almost all European countries have joined the fiscal union, frivolous spending will be curbed and more attention will now be on reducing the deficit while fighting to repay the huge debt at the same time. So far, bond auctions have been well received and the yields have fluctuated but have yet to surge to dangerous levels. With the three positive drivers already in place, Europe can either play the role of a fourth driver or a party pooper.

Our Beloved STI

The recent rallies in global markets have greatly improved the sentiment on the Singapore bourse. We have seen broadmarket rallies although participation has remained subdued owing to a lack of confidence and also partly due to the belief that Europe’s problems will worsen. Nevertheless, the Straits Times Index (STI) has gained about 100 points so far in 2012 and the momentum is gathering pace. Having closed at 2,747 points, the index looks set to retest the December-high of 2,793 points before attempting to flirt with the October-high of 2,905 points. But much is dependent on the overseas markets although near- and medium-term technical indicators do suggest that the STI is bullish. Stay optimistic but do watch out for the support at 2,680 points, which spells bad news if broken. I wish all investors a prosperous Chinese New Year! May the Year of the Dragon bring us good fortune and a Bull Run!! 21

Perspective text : Bloomberg

Goldman Sachs Overstock’s Wins Dismissal Of Short Sale Suit

oldman Sachs Group Incorporated won dismissal of Overstock.com Incorporated’s lawsuit alleging the investment bank manipulated short sales of the online retailer’s stock from 2005 to 2007, causing the shares to fall. State court judge John Munter in San Francisco threw out the complaint in a ruling on 10 January. The decision comes almost five years after Overstock accused Wall Street brokerages of using a practice known as naked short selling to deliberately drive down its shares to allegedly reap security lending fees and appease hedge fund clients who were shorting Overstock. Munter agreed with the defendants, which included Merrill Lynch & Company, that the lawsuit couldn’t go forward because Overstock hadn’t

shown that any of the conduct it sued over happened in California. “Plaintiffs have failed to raise a triable issue of material fact supportive of a finding that any act by any defendant foundational to liability, causation or damages occurred in California,” Munter said in the ruling. Patrick Byrne, chief executive officer of Salt Lake City-based Overstock, has accused investment banks and hedge funds of working together to destroy market value of small-cap companies. In short selling, investors sell shares they have borrowed in anticipation of making a profit by paying for the stock after its price has fallen. In naked short selling, traders never borrow the stock and can drive down prices by flooding the market with orders to sell shares they don’t have, Overstock alleges in court filings.

Naked Shorting

Overstock claims large portions of its shares were the subject of naked shorting, leading to instances where the short position in its stock has exceeded the entire supply of outstanding shares. Its shares fell from more than US$70 in early 2005 to less than US$20 in late 2006, according to court filings. The clearing operations at Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch, the brokerage acquired by Bank of America Corporation in 2009, intentionally failed to locate and deliver borrowed shares for clients, allowing the firms to earn fees and interest on phantom securities transactions, lawyers for Overstock said in court filings. Overstock sought millions of dollars in damages against Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch. Clients shorting the stock benefited because the oversupply of shares depressed

the shares, the company alleges. The conduct violated California’s unfair business practices and securities laws, according to the complaint. Jonathan Johnson, Overstock’s president, said he hadn’t seen the ruling yet and couldn’t comment. He said in an e-mail that Overstock expects to file a racketeering lawsuit on the same allegations in New Jersey on 11 January. Michael DuVally, a spokesman for New York-based Goldman Sachs, declined to comment on the ruling in a telephone interview. Lawrence Grayson, a spokesman for Charlotte, North Carolinabased Bank of America, and Andrew Frackman, an attorney who represented the Merrill Lynch units in the case, didn’t immediately respond to e-mail messages seeking comment on the ruling after hours.

‘Phantom Shares’

Lawyers for Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch said the case had to be dismissed because the alleged manipulative conduct at issue didn’t occur in California and there’s no evidence that failing to deliver stock creates “phantom shares” or depressed Overstock’s shares. Clearing operations for Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are based in New York, they said. “There’s no evidence in the record that the defendants’ fails-to-deliver, regardless of what short sales we might

have caused as a result of that, caused Overstock to be in the top 1% of all shorted companies,” Andrew Frackman, an attorney for Merrill Lynch, said at a 5 January hearing in San Francisco. “Their prime broker, their settling departments that were engaged in this are located in New York and New Jersey.” “We do believe very strongly that the conduct at issue here, wherever it occurred, was entirely lawful and was not prohibited under any laws against market manipulation,” Joseph Floren, a lawyer for Goldman Sachs, said at the hearing.

California Brokers

Lawyers for Overstock told Munter that the company sold shares in California and the defendants were licensed California brokers that af-

fected the national market for Overstock shares. They also pointed to certain trades the defendants executed on the San Francisco-based Pacific Stock Exchange for clients who were based in Northern California and conduct at a San Francisco-based Merrill Lynch office that allegedly accommodated manipulative trading schemes. “In looking at the California conduct, you have to look at it from soup to nuts,” Theodore Griffinger, Overstock’s lawyer, said at the hearing. “You have to look at it from the initiation of the relationship.” The company originally sued more than 10 brokerage firms in its 2007 lawsuit. Claims against all but Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch were dismissed previously. 23

Trend spotting text : Collin Seow

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

___ _____ ________

MA(20) MA(40) MA(100)

Weekly Chart on DBS

DBS Group Holdings

DBS Group Holdings (DBS) has broken its $13.50 support and the next support is at $11.50. The 20-day Moving Average (MA) has also crossed below the 40-

day MA indicating we may be on a longer term downtrend. On a short term time frame, the stock may be oversold. When the Commodity Channel Index (CCI)(5) goes above +100, it would indicate

that the stock is overbought and may pullback. One could take advantage of the rally to sell into strength.

Noble Group

Noble Group (Noble) is ___ _____ ________

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1 Support 2

Weekly Chart on Noble

MA(20) MA(40) MA(100)

___ _____ ________

MA(20) MA(40) MA(100)

Resistance $4.85 Resistance $4.60 Resistance $4.36

Support $3.65

Weekly Chart on SembMar

another stock that is on the downtrend. The 20-day MA and 40-day MA is sloping downwards, indicating downtrend potential. In October, there was a good opportunity to sell into strength. The price was in between the 20day MA and 40-day MA. The CCI(5) at that time showed that the stock was overbought

(+100). Currently, the price is near to the oversold region. One could wait for the next rally to sell on strength.The current support is around $1.05 and the next support is at $0.90. The resistance is at $1.30 and $1.65.

SembCorp Marine

The last stock we are look-

ing at is SembCorp Marine (SembMar). The resistance is seen around $4.36. If the stock can go above $4.36 and stay above $4.36 within this week, we may be able to see a wee bit more upside potential. The next resistances are at $4.60 and $4.85. One may wait for any rally to sell on strength.The reason why I would sell on strength is because of the long bearish candlesticks in July 2011. My view is that as the price rallies towards the resistance at around $4.60, we will see more sellers. We can use the CCI(5) to determine overbought position to sell into strength.

Chartered Portfolio Manager (CPM) qualification from American Academy of Financial Management (AAFM). Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) awarded by the International Federation of Technical Analyst (IFTA) Member of MENSA Singapore Member of Technical Analyst Society Institute (TASS) Inventor of CSI Trading System Collin has been invited to train for other top organisations such as Chartnexus, Trader Council, AXA, Manulife, Prudential Assurance Singapore and others. He combines his unique brand of â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;street-smarts with heartâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; in trading. See Collin in action at www.collinseow.com

Headliners compiled : Simeon Ang

CapitaLand-Led Consortium Seals Rmb21.1b Chongqing Project

CapitaLand has led a consortium, established with CapitaMall Asia and Singbridge Holdings, to seal a cooperation agreement with the Chongqing government. The deal involved a Rmb21.1b mixed-use development project in the Chao Tian Men area – a prestigious site in the heart of the densely developed Yuzhong district situated at the confluence of the Yangtze and Jialing Rivers. The development project is said to be the largest in the city, in terms of both land size and investment quantum, in a decade. CapitaLand and CapitaMalls Asia will each hold a 25%-stake, while Singbridge Holdings will hold a 30% interest with the balance 20% being held by unrelated parties. CapitaLand is bullish about the growth outlook of Chongqing, noting that its economy ‘is the fastest-growing in China with 17.1% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2010, well above the national average of 11.2%.’ Along with the GDP growth, demand across various real estate sectors will rise and the developer is set to ride the upswing.

Keppel Corp Secures US$150m Semisubmersible Rig Deal

Keppel AmFELS, a subsidiary of Keppel Offshore & Marine and a whollyowned company of Keppel Corporation (Keppel Corp), has secured a US$150m

($195m) contract to start the year off. Keppel AmFELS will build and upgrade a moored semisubmersible rig for a long-time customer, Diamond Offshore, with delivery scheduled for 3Q13. Earlier last month, Keppel Corp reported that it has won a contract valued at $809m to build a semisubmersible drilling rig for Urca Drilling BV, bringing its new orders to reach a record high of some $10b at the end of 2011. Despite the current global financial crisis, Keppel Corp said it continues to get enquiries for new vessels, with all its customers consisting of players in the drilling business. The firm is also confident of getting orders in a tender by Petrobas, which is spending nearly US$225b till 2015 to raise its oil production. Keppel Corp has worked with Diamond Offshore on more than 20 projects since 1996. Markedly, Diamond’s rigs are sent regularly to Keppel Corp’s yards around the world for maintenance, repair and upgrade, with Keppel AmFELS proving to be their choice yard in the US Gulf of Mexico.

Ezra Bags Two Contracts From Statoil

Ezra Holdings' (Ezra) subsea unit, EMAS AMC, has won two contracts from Statoil, worth about 450m krone ($97m). The deals are worth up to 600m krone if options to expand the work to more floating platforms are exercised. “The contracts mark another important milestone for EMAS AMC, combining our reputable engineering

capabilities with our modern fleet of construction assets,” said Svein Haug, regional head for EMAS AMC (Europe and Africa). EMAS AMC was formed when Ezra acquired Aker Marine Contractors in late 2010. Ezra became a full-fledged service provider to the deepwater drilling industry. This latest win pushes Ezra’s new subsea division ever closer to its US$1b shortterm order book ambition. Notably, EMAS AMC’s subsea backlog of US$745m formed the bulk of the Ezra’s order book of over US$1.2b for the fourth quarter ended 31 August 2011.

KSH Holdings Bags $110m Condo Contract

KSH Holdings (KSH) has secured a $110.28m condominium contract from Precious Sand, a joint venture company between Far East Organisation company and a Frasers Centrepoint subsidiary, for the construction of Seastrand- a condominium development in Pasir Ris. Under the terms of the contract, KSH will be building two blocks of 12-storey residential buildings and seven blocks of 11-storey residential buildings, with a total of 473 units. For the fiscal second quarter ended 30 September 2011, KSH’s earnings jumped 24.1% to $5.2m. Revenue on the other hand dropped 24.2% to $54.4m. With this new contract win, KSH’s existing order book of construction business now tips over $467m, with completion and deliveries stretching till 2014.

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DIC BONUS RIGHTS EPS EPS 73.345 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 984.661 984.661.144 73.345 984.661 .144 1:5 114.797 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 1,110.6 1,110.615.187 114.797 .187 1,110.6 1:2 200.591 200.591 .259 15 1,765.835 15 .259 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 156.831 156.831 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 1,765.8 1,765.8 *.2*.2 PROFIT & & PROFIT LOSS(S$M) LOSS(S$M)

31-12-92 31-1292 31-12-93 31-1231-12-94 93 INTERIM

SH" HOLDER FUNDS (S$M)

15% $.075

SH" SH" HOLDER HOLDERS FUNDS (S$M) FUNDS (S$M)

15% $.07

515% $.075

$2.90 1:5

$12.00 $11.00 $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00

STOCK SPLIT

FOR YOUR INFO

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PROFIT & & SH" HOLDER SH" SH" HOLDER HOLDERS PROFIT LOSS(S$M) FUNDSRIGHTS FUNDS (S$M) EPS BONUS FUNDS LOSS(S$M) DIC EPS (S$M) (S$M) 15% 73.345 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 984.661 984.661.144 73.345 $.075984.661 .144 15% 1:5 114.797 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 1,110.6 1,110.615.187 114.797 $.07 1,110.6 .187 515% $2.90 200.591 200.591 $.075 1:2 151:5 1,765.835 .259 15 .259 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 156.831 156.831 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 1,765.8 1,765.8 *.2*.2

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Ben S. Bernanke was sworn in on February 1, 2006, as Chairman and a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FOR YOUR INFO Dr. Bernanke also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s principal monetary policymaking body. He was appointed as a member of the Board to a full 14-year term, which expires January 31, 2020, and to a four-year term as Chairman, which expires January 31, 2010. Before his appointment as Chairman, Dr. Bernanke was Chairman of the Presidentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Council of Economic Advisers, from June 2005 to January 2006. Dr. Bernanke has already served the Federal Reserve System in several roles. He was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2002 to 2005, a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia (1987-89), Boston (1989-90), and New York (1990-91, 1994-96), and a member of the Academic Advisory Panel at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1990-2002). Dr. Bernanke was born on December 13, 1953, in Augusta, Georgia. He received a B.A. in economics in 1975 from Harvard University (summa cum laude) and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Bernanke and his wife, Anna, have two children. 58

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The Abolishment of Par Value With effect from 30 January 2006, the Companies Act was amended to abolish the concepts of par value, authorized share capital and share premium. Below are excerpts from the second reading speech by Raymond Lim, the Second Minister For Finance on the Companies (Amendment) Bill 2005, 16 May 2005:

Currently [Previously], all shares issued by a company must have a par value and the company is required to report its authorized share capital. Par value is the minimum value ascribed to a share in a company. It is the amount of money that the shareholder holding the said share is statutorily required to pay off for the new share issued to him. The authorized share capital is the maximum amount of share capital which a company is authorized to allot under its Memorandum. Calculation of paid up share capital based on par value is an outdated concept that is no longer relied on by investors and creditors as an accurate proxy of a companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s underlying value. In practice, measures such as earning per share and net tangible asset backing, provide a more accurate guide to the economic value of a company. Not only is the concept of par value not an accurate proxy of a companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s value, the rule that shares cannot be issued at a discount to par value also serves to prevent a company from raising new funds when the market value of its shares has fallen below par value. Clause 8 amends Section 22 to abolish the concept of authorized share capital, thus removing the upper limit to the number of shares that companies may issue, a limit that serves no prudential purpose. Clause 15 introduces new Sections 62A and 62B to abolish the par value concept and provides for the transition provisions for the treatment of share capital. Clause 18 repeals Sections 67 to 69F, which are no longer applicable as the concepts of share premium and share discount will cease to apply.

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