Feed Materials Commentary By Roger Dean
projection made in March. In terms of the outcome where consumption is concerned, total usage identified by FAS currently amounts to 747.18 million tonnes, 5.13 million tonnes more than in the previous, March estimate. Significantly, 5 million tonnes of the total increase is estimated to have arisen in China. Equally, of a 5.7 million tonne fall in world wheat inventories between March and April is identified as taking place in China. Conversely, there is no change in Chinese wheat production identified between the two
The latest edition of the Grain Market Report was published by the International Grains Council on 29 April 2021. An increase in global total grains supply - wheat and coarse grains - in 2020-21 of 36 million tonnes is expected to be exceeded by a 44
latest estimates. As regards maize, the USDA has increased its projection of maize production in 2020-21 by 740,000 tonnes or 0.1 per cent to 1,137.0 million tonnes.
million tonne rise in consumption leaving stocks 8 million tonnes down
A substantial contribution to the increase – 1.14 million tonnes – is
and at a five-year low of 609 million tonnes. The International Grains
made up of non-specified and presumable minor producers. However,
Council attributes the drop in inventories mainly to another drawdown for
maize production in the EU is also projected to increase from 63.7
maize, to the smallest level in eight years; this contrasts with a build-up
million tonnes to 64 million tonnes as the data is further refined. France
for wheat to a record.
is the largest maize grower in the EU and, together with Romania (15.3
Turning to grain supply in 2021-22 and increases in wheat production
per cent), Italy (12 per cent) and Hungary (11.3 per cent), these four
(up by 16 million tonnes) and maize (up by 52 million tonnes) were only
Member States covered 61.8 per cent of the total EU-28 grain maize
partly offset by decreases for barley, oats and rye. World total grains
production in 2015.
production in 2021-22 is projected to climb by 61 million tonnes to a world
USDA’s projection of world soybean production in 2020-21, at
record 2,287million tonnes. With the 52 million tonnes increase in supply
363.19 million tonnes, is 1.36 million tonnes ahead of the projection
matched by the rise in use, world grain inventories are expected to stay
made in March.
at 609 million tonnes at the end of 2021-22, although maize inventories
The major contributor to the increase is Brazilian soybean production
are expected to decline again to a nine-year low, while further stock
which, at 136 million tonnes, is 2 million tonnes or 1.5 per cent ahead of
building is seen for wheat.
USDA’s March projection. The estimates for the other major producers,
Driven by bigger soybean crops in both the US and Brazil, global soyabean output in 2020-21 is forecast at 7 per cent higher year-on-
including the US and Argentina are unchanged; in the case of the US, this contradicts much of recent trade comment.
year. Nevertheless, with consumption expected to record a solid increase,
Brazil soybean production for the 2020-21 marketing year is forecast
world soybean inventories are seen as falling for a second consecutive
at a record 136 million tonnes, and up 7.5 million tonnes or 6 per cent) from
season, including a contraction in US inventories by 80 per cent. With
last season’s revised record crop of 128.5 million tonnes. The harvested
high soybean prices expected to generate a supply response, 2021-22
area is forecast at a record 38.6 million hectares, up 1.7 million hectares or
world soybean production is ‘tentatively placed’ at a record of 383 million
5 per cent from last season’s record. Brazilian soybean yield is projected
tonnes, up by 5.8 per cent. While world soybean consumption is expected
at a record 3.52 tonnes per hectare, 1 per cent above last season and
to increase further, a ‘modest’ inventory increase seems likely.
close to the 10-year trend. Although Brazil had weather-related delays
The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural
in both sowing and harvesting, record soybean output is expected for a
Service (FAS) provides monthly updates on the production, consumption
second consecutive year. Currently, about 80 per cent of the Brazilian
and ending stocks of a wide variety of agricultural products and the latest
soybean crop has been harvested, with dry weather allowing rapid harvest
update was published on 9 April 2021.
gains during recent weeks.
World wheat production during the 2020-2021 marketing year was
Paraguayan soybean production in 2020-2021 is lowered to 9.9
projected at 776.5 million tonnes, 286,000 tonnes or marginally lower
million tonnes as a delayed harvest prevented farmers from planting
than the previous estimate published in March 2021. It should be borne
second-crop soybeans. However, a return to normal climatic conditions in
in mind that the end of the 2020-21 cereal marketing year is approaching
2021-22 would mean that soybean production is projected at 10.5 million
and thus estimates for individual countries are becoming cumulatively
tonnes as this would allow for increased second-crop soybean planting,
more accurate as more statistical information is gathered.
a critical element in the South American soybean sector.
The overall figure includes a 516,000 tonne or 0.9 per cent reduction
The overall picture as regards prices concerning the major feed
in production for a wide variety of countries not individually identified.
ingredients is for a significant decline in world wheat stocks, down 5.7
Otherwise, projected production of wheat in the EU, at 135.6 million
million tonnes and by a 3.8 million downturn in maize inventories, the latter
tonnes, is reduced by 200,000 tonnes or 0.15 per cent. The only other
countered by a 3.1 million increase in soybean inventories. In conclusion,
significant change is in Argentine wheat production which, at 17.63 million
there are few grounds for suggesting any fundamental weakness in feed
tonnes, has been increased by 430,000 tonnes or 2.5 per cent from the
material prices in the immediate future.
Page 10 May/June 2021 Feed Compounder
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