Ukrainian presidential election’ 2014 Issue 4. May-1, 2014/Civic.UA
National Exit Poll-2014 On May 25, 2014, the day of presidential elections in Ukraine, the “National Exit Poll” Consortium which includes the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation (DIF), the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology
(KIIS)
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Oleksandr Razumkov (Razumkov Centre) will conduct the National Exit Poll-2014. The organizational, financial, and media management of the project will be exercised by DIF. The polling of voters will be conducted by KIIS and Razumkov Centre. The research management of the project, development of sample and coordination of polling work will be made by KIIS. In Ukraine, tradition of exit poll conduction has already established itself. It was first launched by DIF in 1998 when it has conducted the first Ukrainian exit poll and organized TV-show “Election night” on 1998 parliamentary elections. Since then, DIF has gained considerable expertise and increase its capacity in conducting exit poll. DIF organized exit polls on 1998, 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2012 parliamentary elections, during two rounds of 1999 and 2010 presidential elections and three rounds of 2004 presidential elections. Since 1999 presidential elections, DIF was joined by KIIS, and since 2004 – also by Razumkov Centre. This will be the 13th exit poll conducted by DIF, 12th – conducted by KIIS, and 8th – conducted by Razumkov Centre. DIF has also conducted several local exit polls, including on 2004 mayoral elections in Mukachevo and on 2008 mayoral elections in Kyiv. The total population of the exit poll will include voters who cast their votes at all polling stations (except special stations, such as those located in hospitals, prisons, military units, and embassies abroad) on the territory of Ukraine. The sample will be representative for Ukraine and its four main regions (the West, the Center, the East, and the South).The sample will be two-level and clustered. On the first stage, in each region, polling stations will be selected with the equal probability and proportionally to the number of polling stations in this region. On the second stage, selection of voters at the polling station will be performed systematically (applying a step). Constant selection step will be used during the elections’ day. The results of the exit poll will be presented on all-Ukrainian and regional levels. The West – Zakarpattia, Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi and Khmelnytskyi regions. The Center – Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv regions and Kyiv municipality. The South – Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Dniptopetrovsk regions. The East – Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The project will be implemented under control of the Observing Council which includes prominent civic leaders, leading journalists, and renowned experts. The conduction of polling activities on the election day will be controlled by foreign experts form Russia, Poland, and the USA. More information on the Civic Space post
Positions of Ukrainian Presidential Candidates on Principles of Social and Healthcare Policies UCIPR analyzes positions of presidential candidates, Mykhailo Dobkin, Petro Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko, Serhiy Tihipko, Oleg Tyahnybok, and Dmytro Yarosh, on social and healthcare policies. Attention is paid to the following aspects: – Dynamics of viewpoints of the candidates on social and healthcare policies; – Practical steps in these areas, if any; – Realism of election platforms and capacity to implement policies in these areas given the existing economic realities. Among the candidates there are the so-called heavyweight politicians, who took part in the formulation of policies in the above areas, which makes it possible to evaluate not only their rhetoric but also practical steps. First of all, this concerns Yulia Tymoshenko as former Prime Minister under Yushchenko’s presidency (2005, 2007–2010) and Serhiy Tihipko as former Vice Prime Minister of Social Policy under Yanukovych-Azarov government (2010– 2012). This conventional group of public figures could be supplemented with Mykhailo Dobkin responsible for social policy under Yanukovych-Azarov government as Chairman of the Kharkiv regional state administration. Respective proposals and intentions of other two candidates, Petro Poroshenko and Oleg Tyahnybok, could be judged by their activities in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine as MPs. Positions of a novice, Dmytro Yarosh, could be assessed based on his election program and program guidelines of the Tryzub organization, in which he was a member for 20 past years. As is seen from the above assessment of positions of the six candidates to the post of the President of Ukraine, none of them is ready to frankly speak about methods to change government social policy. None of them gives an integral vision of transformations and mechanism for the support of the social sector and stages of its reforming; none of them link social protection issues to economic development models and freedom of entrepreneurship. Also, it has to be mentioned that the declared positions of the politicians differ from practical steps taken over the term of their office. Specifically, Yulia Tymoshenko, whose social policy at the office of Prime Minister was based on the increase of budget expenditures for social needs, accentuates the social development at the expense of tax liberalization in her election program of 2014. In turn, Mykhailo Dobkin, who supported the reduction of social payments and privileges and even
came forward against free medical services as Chairman of the Kharkiv regional state administration, builds his platform on the idea of a firm government social policy. The other two candidates, Serhiy Tihipko and Petro Poroshenko, do not emphasize social problems in their election platforms. Serhiy Tihipko, known as the father of the pension reform that contained elements of ‘tough’ social policy with simultaneous retention of privileges for judges and public servants, confines himself to general phrases about guarantees of pensions and social security programs. The program of Petro Poroshenko, providing for an increase in budget allocations for social needs, runs counter to his readiness to cooperate with the IMF for the attraction of credits. Most likely, the last aspect will be decisive for his activity as a politician. Oleg Tyahnybok and Dmytro Yarosh have somewhat similar positions being guided by the idea of the state as the source of social justice. They share the viewpoint that it is the state that has to bear the main social burden; they do not oppose the growth of social commitments but point out the readiness for liberalization of the tax system in order to stimulate business development and payment of taxes. In general, it is possible to state that the ultimate practical positions of most candidates are influenced by the understanding of the weakness of the state and its inability to meet social commitments. Hence, in case of a victory in the presidential elections, they will address such issues as the revision of the current models of social policy on the principles of realism, combination of the government support to the most vulnerable social groups and targeted assistance with instruments of business development and an opportunity to pay for social consumption of the able-bodied population, medical care, education, and pension savings, from its income (the so-called mixed model of social policy). The Head of State should take into account the current crisis realities of the Ukrainian economy: recession, high prices for energies, trade wars with Russia, payments on foreign liabilities, deficit of the Pension Fund, inflation, and the price rise. A would-be President should be, first and foremost, a strategically minded ‘crisis manager’. Consistent and joint positions of a new President and the parliamentary majority that forms the government and shares political responsibility also matter a lot. Conversely, active actions of a populist President could create additional difficulties for the process of economic reforms in Ukraine. More information
Ukrainian World Congress deploying over 230 international observers to monitor the Presidential Elections in Ukraine
The Ukrainian World Congress (UWC) is deploying over 230 international election observers from 22 countries to monitor the Presidential Elections in Ukraine on 25 May 2014. The UWC International Election Observation Mission (UWC Mission) includes observers from the World Congress of Ukrainian Youth Organizations (WCUYO), a UWC member organization. In addition, the UWC Mission will cooperate with a mission being deployed by yet another UWC member organization, the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America, which includes over 210 observers. The UWC Mission is headed by Bohdan Futey, United States Federal Judge. The Chief Observer is Peter Sztyk, UWC Third Vice President, and the Manager is Myroslav Hochak, WCUYO President. “Monitoring the elections in Ukraine, and particularly furthering the country’s democracy and transparency, have always been among the priorities of the UWC which has been regularly deploying large observation missions to Ukraine. This year’s early Presidential Elections are extremely important for Ukraine and the UWC has responded with a very impressive international observation mission,” stated UWC President Eugene Czolij.
Manual for observers became available for everyone: download mobile application for Android Civil Network OPORA has implemented a project, which was planned for a long time, and made the electoral monitoring easy and available. Now, every owner of a smartphone, tablet, smartbook or netbook on Android will have a userfriendly instrument of a qualified observer and active voter. All they need is to download a mobile application. Mobile application "Elections - manual for observers" has a number of documents, necessary for every official observer, active voter, or member of election commission: Law on the Election of the President of Ukraine; General instructions for observers; Sample complaints and claims against unlawful actions and inaction of the corresponding bodies, as well as administrative and criminal violations. The same mobile application for owners of Apple devices on iOS is going to be developed soon. Download the mobile application "Elections - manual for observers": on site
Presidential Elections in Ukraine: A Request for Limitation of Personal Power Special presidential elections will be held for the second time in the history of Ukraine. Yet, they have never been held in the atmosphere of public opposition and in the situation of the country’s disintegration. A new President of Ukraine will have to tackle nationally important problems comparable to historical events of the past and to map out a strategy for the future. Hence, the following two questions should be answered first: the future of what country is meant and what this future will be like. Events are developing so rapidly that they might have any consequences. Many Ukrainian political actors set a branched network of bifurcation points. Things that seemed to be obvious for some people yesterday become absolutely unacceptable for others today. There is a chasm between ‘yesterday’ and ‘today’, ‘some people’ and ‘others’; a chasm of chaos, war, alienation, and hostility. The Maidan, started as a response to violence and indifference of the government, has raised the issue of new relations in the society and initiated a request for a new power, uncriminalized, uncorrupt, and unoligarchic. Such power should be built on openness and absence of corruption. Corruption has ruined a possibility to carry out business, eroded the state organism, and ‘seized’ the country, according to the World Bank. As a result, Ukraine has neither government, nor security policy, nor education and healthcare system, nor competitive entrepreneurship, nor money. It lacks all things to be ensured by the government because its mission is to maintain the common order and enable people to work. Ukrainians have a desire and readiness to create a new order that will not allow politicians to make dividends on politics or, at least, make them less interested. Ukraine is supported by the countries, whose societies are united and powerful. National cohesion is always a precondition for the power of the state. Those, who live on corruption, are aiming this very point following the old Roman principle ‘divide and conquer’. They are inclined to restore the corruption order and their own power. They are not only exiles of the ‘Family’, members of entourage of ex-President Victor Yanukovych, his officials and Kremlin patrons, but also those willing to take their offices and impede social changes.
A path to the day of elections is not that easy. This path is full of information wars on the part of Russia, Crimea’s annexation, fomentation of separatism, efforts to make elections dependent on constitutional changes, games around candidates, and planted articles about elections’ illegitimacy. However, elections will be carried out all over Ukraine. The government is organizing elections in all regions, save Crimea. Territorial election commissions have been formed in all regions. Hindrances to the people’s free choice could be caused only by militant separatists, who might capture and control some precincts. Under the law on elections of the President of Ukraine, the presence is not mandatory and voting results are established regardless of the number of
precincts (constituencies), within the limits of which the voting has not been organized and held in accordance with the law. As elections are carried out in the nation-wide constituency, a victory depends on the number of votes, not precincts. A candidate has to win 50%+1 vote of the number of people, who took part in the voting. If no winner is established, a repeated voting is held (the second round) by the simple majority system. All people, who support political solution of social conflicts and the search of consensus, are interested in elections of a new President of Ukraine. Victor Yanukovych lacked both of the above traits. Presidential elections will help correct the system of power in Ukraine, in which this political figure plays a significant role even under the political system set by the 2004 compromise characterized by a weakened President and unjustified dualism of the executive. Besides, elections will legitimate some government decisions formulated and implemented with the participation of the President, ranging from the formation of authorities and national security issues under aggressive attacks on the idea of Ukraine’s sovereignty to threats to citizens’ lives, and bring them to another level of responsibility. The first person of the higher political league should assume such responsibility. We all understand that we will soon face the second wave of oligarchic power and elections should fix the redistribution of influence launched six months ago. The strongest candidates from the business of the early and mid-90’s are Serhiy Tihipko, Mykhailo Dobkin, Petro Poroshenko, and Yulia Tymoshenko. A battle of Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko started in the mid-2000’s is going on and a loser ‘will be gone with the wind’. Even given the weakness of his administrative influence, a new President is able to act as a consolidating link. It is important for a new President to comprehend that he should consolidate not only assets that lie in temptation’s way but also the nation. In fact, it is not the upcoming elections but the Maidan that has become the point of no returning. It has launched many processes, whose course and consequences are not always unambiguous. Yet, there are also clear and understandable directives, ‘the power may not be usurped’ and ‘the power may not be corrupt’. These directives are still to be implemented but their formulation has created a basis for the further progress. Now, there are two influential factors capable to make the Ukrainian power controllable: political and financial aid of the West. However, what is important is that people have already become convinced that joint actions for a common goal will always bring results. From the viewpoint of further prospects, important reshuffles in politics will be achieved by parliamentary elections as the focus of influences is shifting to the parliament. The main game (not always effective) will be around those, who will focus these influences. In this process, personal traits, capabilities, and principles of a new President will be decisive. Their analysis is given in this and other issues of Your Choice-2014 Bulletin. More information
Verkhovna Rada has strengthened safeguards for commission members and electoral documentation: DECs will be guarded 24h
Verkhovna Rada has adopted important amendments to the Law of Ukraine on Election of the President of Ukraine in order to secure the protection of commission members and safety of electoral documentation during the transportation. These amendments are extremely important, particularly for securing the safety of election process in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, as long as threats and even armed assaults against premises of district election commissions and members of election commission occur more and more often.
3. Delivery of personal invitations to the voters
It is expected that the MIA of Ukraine secure 24h guard of district election commissions (DECs) not later than 10 days before the election day, and upon a request of the Central Election Commission, the guard of State Voter Register maintenance bodies, if it's necessary. Besides that, as an exception, upon a request of the corresponding head of Oblast State Administration, district election commissions (DECs) may be relocated, even to another territorial election district.
4. Mandatory 24h GUARD for district election commissions and (upon a request of the CEC) for State Voter Register maintenance bodies
The corresponding legislative amendments were adopted today by 240 votes of MPs during the sitting of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Amendments will come into force after the publication of the law, signed by the acting President of Ukraine O. Turchynov. The Law provides the corresponding amendments: 1. Relocation of district election commissions (DECs) Upon a request of the corresponding head of Oblast State Administration, district election commissions (DECs) may be relocated, even to another territorial election district. Heads of Oblast State Administrations may submit a request for location of district election commissions outside the corresponding territorial election district. 2. Transference of preliminary voter list and personal invitations to the DECs State Voter Register maintenance bodies should provide one copy of the preliminary voter list and printed personal invitations (according to the Article 32(2) of this Law) to the corresponding precinct election commissions not later that ten days (16 in the previous wording) before the voting day, inside its own premises.
Precinct election commissions of regular polling stations should send or deliver personal invitations, received from the State Voter Register maintenance body, to every voter not later than seven days (12 in the previous wording). Invitations contain information about voter's inclusion in the preliminary voter list of the corresponding polling station, address of the precinct election commission, its phone number, working hours, time and place of voting.
The MIA of Ukraine shall secure 24h guard of district election commissions not later than 10 days before the election day, and upon a request of the Central Election Commission, the guard of State Voter Register maintenance bodies, if it's necessary. 5. Enhanced security when transporting and transferring the documents to district election commissions Hence, transportation of election documentation from PECs to DECs (documents are listed in Article 79(10) of the Law of Ukraine on Election of the President of Ukraine), shall be implemented by the head of precinct election commission or deputy head and two members of this commissions, guarded by employees of the bodies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, or by employees of the Security Service of Ukraine, if the Central Election Commission requests.Only one MIA guard was provided by the previous wording. 6. Enhanced security during the transportation of election documentation to DECs Transportation of election documentation of PECs and DECs (documents are listed in Article 83(6) of the Law of Ukraine on Election of the President of Ukraine), shall be implemented by the head of district election commission or deputy head and two members of this commissions (representing two different candidates), guarded by employees of the bodies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, or by employees of the Security Service of Ukraine, if the Central Election Commission requests. Only one MIA guard was provided by the previous wording.
PACE to observe the early presidential election in Ukraine A 42-member delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), led by Andreas Gross (Switzerland, SOC), will travel to Ukraine from 23 to 26 May to observe the conduct of the early presidential election, alongside observers from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, the European Parliament, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).
establish legitimate political authority”. It called on all Ukrainian citizens, whatever their political convictions or linguistic and regional sensibilities, “to play an active part in the election campaign and to participate in the forthcoming election”. According to the pre-electoral delegation, any external interference in the domestic affairs of Ukraine and in the electoral process should be excluded, in order to guarantee the people’s freedom to vote.
The delegation will meet, in particular, the candidates standing for the election, and representatives of the Central Election Commission, civil society and the media, before observing the ballot on 25 May.
Speaking this week on behalf of the Assembly’s Presidential Committee following a meeting in Luxembourg, PACE President Anne Brasseur has also appealed to all sides in Ukraine to put an immediate end to violence, ensure full respect for human rights and engage in a broad national dialogue.
A member of the Venice Commission – the Council of Europe's group of independent legal experts – will provide legal support during the visit. In a declaration dated 30 April, the PACE pre-electoral delegation said that “Ukraine needed a democratic and credible presidential election to
A joint press conference is scheduled at the Pedagogical Museum The Teacher's House Vladimirskaya Street 57, in Kyiv on Monday 26 May (time to be confirmed)
Opinions and views of the citizens of Southern and Eastern regions of Ukraine The survey “Opinions and views of the citizens of Southern and Eastern regions of Ukraine: April 2014” was conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology during April 8-16, 2014. The results are representative for the population (18 years and older) of each of 8 regions (oblasts) of the South and the East of Ukraine (Odesa, Mykolaiiv, Kherson, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk oblasts). “Mixed” type of polling was used in the survey. In large cities (with population of 100,000 and higher) and regional centers, computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) were held. In towns and villages, ordinary face-to-face interviews in the respondents’ households were conducted. In the framework of the survey, total of 3,232 interviews with respondents who live in 160 settlements of the South and the East of Ukraine (1,476 CATI and 1,756 face-to-face interviews) were held. In each region, no less than 400 interviews were conducted.
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Report on the creation of precinct election commissions during snap election of the President of Ukraine on May 25, 2014 Special election of the President of Ukraine is being held in extremely complicated socio-political situation. Creation of precinct election commissions, which will organize the voting on 25 May 2014, became an important testing. Expectedly, the biggest problems during formation of PECs occurred in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Only 10 of 22 district election commissions in Donetsk oblast managed to properly create PECs. In Luhansk, for its part, only one DEC didn't manage to form PECs. Unfortunately, violence and threats against members of election commissions have intensified in these oblasts.
The following Presidential candidates have the biggest number of representatives in PECs: Zorian Shkiriak, Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, Mykola Malomuzh, and Serhii Tihipko. Commission members from these candidates are included in more than 80% of PECs. Vadym Rabynovych, Vasyl Tsushko, Yurii Boiko, Dmytro Yarosh, and Renat Kuzmin have the smallest number of representatives in PECs: from 0,4% (Rabynovych) to 26% (Kuzmin). The reason is that Presidential candidates were inactive in organization of the election process and failed to fill the quotas, provided by the Law.
District election commissions were authorized to create more than 32 thousand precinct election commissions. All candidates for the President of Ukraine had a chance to nominate one representative to every PEC. 19 candidates have used this right to the certain extent, and 18 of them received representation in the corresponding commissions.
Moreover, two candidates – Valerii Konovaliuk and Andrii Hrynenko – didn't participate in the formation of PECs and didn't submit any candidacies. Besides that, candidacies for membership of PECs from Volodymyr Saranov, which were submitted only to the DECs in Kyiv, were rejected because the documents weren't duly processed.
All candidates for the President of Ukraine have nominated more than 300 thousand candidates for membership of PECs. However, DECs in all Ukrainian regions have faced the shortage of candidates for members of PECs to get at least a minimum membership. Due to such situation, the Law of Ukraine on the Election of the President of Ukraine was amended in order to cut the minimum membership of PECs from 12 to 9 persons.
However, OPORA gives positive assessment to the procedure of forming PECs during special elections of the President of Ukraine. Problematic districts in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are the exception, as long as armed separatists destabilize the election process, and the PECs were not created within time constraints established by the law because of their activities."
During special elections, creation of PECs was conducted in an extremely complicated social and political situation, However, despite the organization was so complicated, most commissions started functioning; OPORA's observers didn't report any grave violation of the procedure committed by DECs during formation of PECs. These deviances from the procedure were caused more by organizational complications, than by unlawful intentions of members of election commissions. Candidates for the President of Ukraine haven't fully used their right to form the PECs, what caused the shortage in membership of the corresponding commissions. The Parliament's decision to amend the Law of Ukraine on the Election of the President of Ukraine in order to cut the minimum membership for PECs from 12 to 9 persons was justified and necessary; The key destabilizing factor for election process were activities of armed terroristic groups in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, which intimidated members of election commissions and disrupted organization of the election process; Socio-political and crime-breeding situation in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts require non-standard approach of Ukraine's state authorities to securing citizen electoral rights and safety during the voting process. Taking into consideration these circumstances, the CEC should have a chance to urgently amend the certain election procedures. More information
RECOMMENDATIONS To law enforcement agencies
To secure due security for premises of district and precinct election commissions, and provide state guard for the certain members of election commissions; To develop a complex plan of measures to secure public safety during before and during the election day, during the vote count on polling stations and determination of voting results in territorial election districts; To localize separatist movements and prevent their spreading and intensification in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, where socio-political situation is stably crime-breeding.
To the Central Election Commission
To strengthen the cooperation with DECs, especially those functioning in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. To secure the development of legitimate voting algorithm for Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
To district election commissions
To secure trainings for members of PECs, with consideration that members of these commissions may be substituted by new ones.
REMARKS by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton following her meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry The EU and US share great concern over the political crisis in Ukraine, in particular over the illegal actions by armed separatist groups, EU High Representative Catherine Ashton said yesterday after meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry in Washington. Both Brussels and Washington want “to see Russia join in in the call to see an immediate end to these actions,” which would be in line with the recent discussions in Geneva. The EU will continue “to engage fully in seeking a political solution and to stay fully behind what we said in Geneva and to find ways that we can see the implementation done by everyone,” Ashton stressed in her remarks. Ukraine has the right to defend its territorial integrity, the High Representative underlined. She cited the decision taken by the EU on the 28th of April to extend the number of people subject to targeted sanctions “for actions that undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence,” adding: “Any further steps that destabilize the situation in Ukraine would lead to additional and far-reaching consequences for our relations in a broad range of areas.” Catherine Ashton voiced support of the Chief Monitor of the OSCE Special Mission, who had called upon all sides to exercise maximum restraint, to avoid bloodshed, and to solve differences peacefully. The US and the EU are focused on the forthcoming presidential elections as an important step in the stabilization of Ukraine, Ashton stressed. “It’s about democracy. It’s an opportunity, too, for there to be a legitimate and broad debate on the future of Ukraine and to engage with people who do want to talk about how that future should be – peacefully working together, and to take this opportunity to be able to do that,” she added. The EU will continue with its assistance package for Ukraine, bringing in overall support of about 11 billion euros over time, the EU High Representative said. Read more
Contact information
Civic Space Center www.civicua.org euprostir.org.ua https://www.facebook.com/CivicUA On Portal "Civic Space" created a special section of the coverage of the presidential elections in 2014
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