gfdrr - binder 2013

GFDRR 14th Consultative Group Meeting Exeter, United Kingdom May 16 - 17, 2013

14TH MEEETING OF THE CONSULTATIVE GROUP (CG) EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM MAY 16 - 17, 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. PRELIMINARY AGENDA 2. MINUTES FROM LAST CG 3. WORK PLAN 2014 - 2016 4. DRAFT AMENDMENTS TO CHARTER 5. BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS

PRELIMINARY AGENDA

GFDRR 14TH CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETING

MAY 16-17, 2013

DAY 1 - THURSDAY MAY 16, 2013

DAY 2 – FRIDAY MAY 17, 2013

10:00 – 10:30

Registration & Welcome Coffee**

8:30 – 9:00

10:30 – 10:45

Welcoming Remarks Ms. Zoubida Allaoua (CG Chair): Director, Urban and Disaster Risk Management Department, Sustainable Development Network, the World Bank

CG Co-Chair: United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID)(TBC) Adoption of Agenda & Minutes of the 13th CG Meeting

CG Co-Chair: United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID)(TBC) 10:45 – 11:30

11:30 – 12:30

Session moderated by: Chair

Reporting back on the last 6 month and Introduction of the next 2 days This will provide an opportunity for CG members and partners to provide their first impressions on the proposed Work Plan and the proposed M&E framework.

Presenter: Francis Ghesquiere: Head of GFDRR Secretariat

9:00 – 9:30

Welcoming of New Members : Chile, India Session moderated by: Chair

9:30 – 10:30

Presentation of the GFDRR Work Plan 2013-2015 and proposed M&E Framework Session moderated by: Co-Chair

10:30 – 11:00

Coffee break

Session Moderated by: Co-Chair

11:00 – 12:30

Discussion and Endorsement of the GFDRR Work Plan 2013-2015: Session moderated by: Co-Chair

Feature Presentations: Open Data for Resilience: GFDRR’s Program in Nepal Presenter: Robert Soden Civil Society Strategy: GFDRR Community Resilience Report Presenter: Margaret Arnold

12:30 – 14:00 14:00 – 15:00

Lunch Other Businesses: Proposed Structure of the next Annual Report Presentation of GFDRR Finances Initial Ideas for GFDRR Trust Fund Architecture

Session Moderated by: Co-Chair 12:30 – 14:00

Welcoming Remarks Ms. Zoubida Allaoua (CG Chair)

Session moderated by: Chair

Lunch

14:00 – 15:30

Carousel An overview of the GFDRR Program in Priority Countries

15:30 – 16:00

Coffee break

16:00 – 16:30

Feature Presentations: Presentation “Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services" Presenter: David Roger

15:00 – 15:30

Governance: Discussion and endorsement of the Amendments to the GFDRR Charter The next Co-Chair The next invitee developing country

Session Moderated by: Chair

Session moderated by: Chair 15:30 – 16:00

Coffee break

16:00 – 16:15

Wrap up session and Closing Remarks: Short presentation on the outcomes of the day

GFDRR 14th Consultative Group Meeting

16:30 – 19:00

19:00 – 20:30

Introduction to the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change A short presentation of the Center and main highlights of the work underway, followed by a guided tour of the facility – Welcome address by Met Office Chief Executive Dinner Hosted by DfID at Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change Keynote by Met Office Chief Scientist

CG Contacts:

Signature of New Donor’s first Administration Agreements (Chile, India) CG Co-Chair: United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID)(TBC) Ms. Zoubida Allaoua (Acting CG Chair) Director, Urban and Disaster Risk Management Department, Sustainable Development Network, the World Bank.

Mr. Ralph Connery (GFDRR) Phone: +1 202 458 1657 Email: rconnery@worldbank.org

Ms. Henriette Mampuya (GFDRR) Phone: +32 489 317 519 (mobile) hmampuya@worldbank.org

* For a list of Members and Observers, please see the other side.

PRELIMINARY AGENDA

GFDRR 14TH CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETING

MAY 16-17, 2013

LIST OF GFDRR CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEMBERS AND OBSERVERS

Formal CG Members:

CG Observers

Donors: ACP Secretariat Australia Austria Brazil Chile Denmark European Union Germany India Italy Ireland Japan Korea, Republic of Luxembourg Norway Spain Sweden Switzerland The Netherlands United Kingdom United States World Bank

Belgium Canada China Colombia Egypt Finland France Indonesia Islamic Development Bank Malaysia Mexico Morocco New Zealand Nigeria Portugal Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of Senegal South Africa Vietnam

Other Members: UNISDR 3 Invited Developing Country Members: Togo (2012-13) Solomon Islands (2012-13) Haiti (2012-13)

Invited Observers: UNDP IFRC

As stated in the Partnership Charter members of the GFDRR Consultative Group include: 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

World Bank Donors contributing at least US$3,000,000 cumulatively over three years Chair of the ISDR system Chair of GFDRR Results Management Council Developing country governments contributing at least US$500,000 cumulatively over three years.

Developing country governments invited by the CG (on a 2-year staggered rotational basis)

Beyond formal CG membership (as defined above) GFDRR has engaged a broader partnership-base by welcoming other stakeholders to attend the Consultative Group meetings as Observers. In addition, 2 key international organizations are regularly invited to attend the Consultative Group as Observers.

Minutes from the 13th CG

MINUTES

GFDRR 14TH CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETING

MAY 16-17, 2013

GFDRR 13th Consultative Group Meeting The Hague – November 13 - 14, 2012 DRAFT Agreed Outcomes (VERSION 14 November 2012)

DAY 1

Session 1: Welcoming Remarks The GFDRR Chair Ms. Zoubida Allaoua and Mr. Jelte van Wieren, Co-Chair representing the Netherlands, opened the 13th GFDRR Consultative Group (CG) meeting by welcoming all members, partners and observers and providing an overview of the discussion ahead and decisions to be taken over the two days meeting. The chair highlighted the work GFDRR had carried out over the last year, including engagement with the G20, the 5th Asian Ministerial Conference, and the organization of the Sendai Dialogue. The chair also appreciated Chile, India, and Mexico are currently in the process of joining GFDRR as members.

The co-chair highlighted the importance of disaster risk reduction, especially water-related risk management, for the Netherlands.

Ms. Margareta Wahlström, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Disaster Risk Reduction, highlighted the importance of the partnership between GFDRR and UNISDR, and noted that it is the responsibility of all to do more to consolidate the work that has already been done.

Session 2: A Year in Review and Vision for the Future Mr. Francis Ghesquiere, Head of the GFDRR Secretariat and Manager of the World Bank Disaster Risk Management Practice Group provided delegates to the CG with an overview of the state of GFDRR and the vision for the future.

Members, Partners and Observers of the CG provided their feedback on the draft Strategy 2013-2015, prepared by the Secretariat at the request of the CG to be discussed and endorsed by the members of the CG on day 2 of the meetings.

The CG welcomed the extensive consultative process of the Secretariat in the preparation of the Strategy. It expressed wide support for the draft strategy while noting a number of points for further discussion on day 2.

Members of the CG stressed that the strategy should be demand driven and remain focused with a clear set of objectives to inform GFDRR’s work plan; explore exit strategies for GFDRR from countries; take note of the need for regional initiatives; and pay sufficient attention to the importance of partnerships, particularly with local stakeholders.

The representative from Indonesia noted that his country is currently finalizing the process of becoming a full member to GFDRR.

MINUTES

GFDRR 14TH CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETING

MAY 16-17, 2013

GFDRR 13th Consultative Group Meeting The Hague – November 13 - 14, 2012

DRAFT Agreed Outcomes (VERSION 14 November 2012) Session 3: UNISDR: “Track I, A Five Year Perspective: 2007-2011” Ms. Gillian Holmes, Chief, Resource Mobilization, UNISDR, provided the CG with an overview of what UNISDR has achieved with GFDRR Track I funding over the 2007-2011 period.

Session 4: Resilient Recovery for Resilient Development: Recovery Framework Mr. Raja Rehan Arshad, Team Leader Resilient Recovery, GFDRR, and Mr. Jo Scheuer, Coordinator for Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery at BCPR, UNDP, presented an overview of progress achieved in the development of a Recovery Framework, to support governments turn the outputs of Post Disaster Needs Assessments into practice and inform the recovery process.

The 13th CG meeting - Welcomed the work undertaken on the Results Framework and requested that the Secretariat develop a framework that they could endorse.

- Emphasized the importance of stakeholder engagement as the foundation for any reconstruction plan; - Stressed the need for capacity building at the local level, and that these interventions should not wait until a disaster happens; - Noted that post-disaster engagements need to go beyond recording the needs of the people and also establish the underlying risks and causes of the disaster in order to inform more resilient development.

Session 5: Carousel Presentations of DRM Activities World Bank Regional DRM Coordinators for Africa, Latin America and Caribbean, South Asia and Sector Manager/ Regional Coordinator for Middle East and North Africa, as well as the coordinators of the Disaster Risk Financing and the Weather and Climate Services Program presented an overview of their work, the partnerships formed, and the impact of GFDRR’s engagement. Donors really appreciated this discussion and asked that we keep it in future CG meetings.

The Day 1 presentations will be available at: http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/13CG

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MINUTES

GFDRR 14TH CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETING

MAY 16-17, 2013

GFDRR 13th Consultative Group Meeting The Hague – November 13 - 14, 2012

DRAFT Agreed Outcomes (VERSION 14 November 2012) DAY 2

Session 1: Welcoming Remarks The chair and co-chair opened the second day of the 13th CG meeting and welcomed all delegates to the ‘members only’ discussion. The Chair also welcomed Austria as a new member of GFDRR. Session 2: Adoption of 13th CG Agenda and Minutes of the 12th CG Meeting The 13th CG meeting adopted the Agenda and the 12th CG Agreed Outcomes.

Session 3: Discussion and Endorsement of the Annual Report 2012 The 13th CG meeting endorsed the Annual Report 2012 with the understanding that the Secretariat will - Include a concise table of results and challenges faced by GFDRR during the year; - Include a short text on the preparation for the Sendai Dialogue; - Revise the financial table to clearly indicate the secretariat’s administrative expenses as a percentage of overall program costs; - Circulate the revised annual report before the end of the year.

Session 4: Discussion and Endorsement of new GFDRR Strategy and Work Plan The 13th CG meeting endorsed GFDRR’s 2013-2015 draft strategy subject to the following amendments: - Remove the headline activities under each pillar; - Modify paragraphs 4 and 5 to include lessons learned and the value added of GFDRR; - Revise the graph on page 8 to better communicate the underlying message; - Revise paragraph 17 to include a set of objectives on where GFDRR wants to be by 2015; - Further clarify the Theory of Change in paragraphs 18-19 - Consider including the following suggested text in Paragraph 41: GFDRR Annual work plans will include the outcomes expected to be achieved in priority countries and GFDRR will report on progress against these expected outcomes using its results / logical framework on a yearly basis.

- Consider including the following suggested text in Paragraph 43: Accountability: GFDRR will strive to deliver timely results to the government and people it works with. It will report on results to donors in a transparent, regular and accountable manner.

The Secretariat will revise the draft Strategy 2013-15 and circulate to the CG by November 30th for its final approval on a no objections basis by December 14. Once the strategy is endorsed, the Secretariat will publish the Strategy for advocacy purposes.

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MINUTES

GFDRR 14TH CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETING

MAY 16-17, 2013

GFDRR 13th Consultative Group Meeting The Hague – November 13 - 14, 2012

DRAFT Agreed Outcomes (VERSION 14 November 2012) Work Plan The Secretariat will present a full work plan for FY14 covering all activities in priority countries to the 14th CG in Spring 2013. It will also prepare a proposal to detail how it intends to use the advice of the CG in developing future work plans.

Among other topics, the work plan will include an outline of GFDRR’s engagement with civil society and the use of local expertise where possible.

Session 5: Discussion and Endorsement of Governance and Operations Paper Governance Discussion Paper The 13th CG meeting - Approved the proposal to hold one Annual CG meeting in spring, in combination with an informal meeting to take place in fall; - Approved setting the number of non-contributing invited low income countries on a two-year staggered-rotating basis to two for the CG meetings from 2014 onwards; - Approved that the RMC is not reconstituted, and that its tasks and responsibilities be met by commissioning experts, when needed, to carry out studies on topics of interest to the CG; - Approved that the Secretariat, in order to retain its ability to act quickly, will only seek CG’s clearance where a specific course of action requires an exception from the existing Administration Agreements.

Prioritization Discussion Paper The 13th CG meeting - Approved the proposal for widening the prioritization ratio to 70:30 for country programs and the flexible envelop respectively; - Requested the Secretariat to present a proposal for selection of priority countries, including the criteria for selection and exit; - Recognized that the greater flexibility also allows GFDRR to better support thematic programs in line with the draft Strategy 2013-15.

Session 6: GFDRR’s Partnership with Civil Society The Secretariat updated the CG on progress in the implementation of the GFDRR Partnership Strategy with Civil Society.

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MINUTES

GFDRR 14TH CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETING

MAY 16-17, 2013

GFDRR 13th Consultative Group Meeting The Hague – November 13 - 14, 2012

DRAFT Agreed Outcomes (VERSION 14 November 2012) Session 7: Evaluations and Follow-up The Secretariat provided an overview to the CG on recent evaluations and reviews of GFDRR. The Secretariat will circulate the Terms of Reference for the upcoming external evaluation of GFDRR to the CG for review and feedback.

Session 8: All Other Business The 13th CG meeting - Thanked the Netherlands as outgoing Co-chair for its outstanding contribution to the strengthening of GFDRR’s work and results; - Welcomed the United Kingdom as the incoming Co-chair of the CG. Session 9: Closing Remarks The chair and the co-chair closed the 13th CG meeting and thanked all members and partners for their contribution and attendance.

Session 9: Closing Remarks The chair and the co-chair closed the 13th CG meeting and thanked all members and partners for their contribution and attendance.

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FOR ENDORSEMENT

WORK PLAN

MAY 2013

Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future A Work Plan for the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery 2014-2016

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future Work Plan 2014-2016

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

Executive summary

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Introduction

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How does GFDRR work?

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Proposed program for FY2014-2016 Program logic

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Action Pillar One: Risk Identification

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Action Pillar Two: Risk Reduction

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Action Pillar Three: Preparedness

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Action Pillar Four: Financial Protection

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Action Pillar Five: Resilient Recovery

30

Partnering with others

33

Measuring results

38

Resource requirements

44

Annexes I-III

49

Monitoring and evaluation framework

50

Activity monitoring tool FY2014

52

Operational framework for GFDRR

54

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executive summary To scale up efforts in building resilience against disaster and climate risks in vulnerable countries, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is presenting a work plan for 2014–2016 for endorsement at the 14th GFDRR Consultative Group (CG) meeting.

The successful implementation of this plan will mean that up to 34 countries – representing a total population of over one billion people – will be better able to cope with and adapt to the effects of natural hazards. With sustained investment in risk management, these countries will see a long-term reduction in disaster losses.

In alignment with the GFDRR Strategy 2013–2015, the Work Plan is structured around five pillars of action: risk identification; risk reduction; preparedness; financial protection; and resilient recovery. Across all pillars, through the grants it issues, GFDRR will support countries to develop capacity, generate new knowledge, and apply this capacity and knowledge to implement reform and investment for disaster risk management (DRM). Successful implementation will be characterized by the delivery of a series of five results:

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Result One: Risk Identification By 2016, vulnerable communities in a minimum of 24 partner countries will have better access to information about physical and societal exposure to disaster risks; and national agencies or cities in these countries will be equipped with improved means to assess and communicate these risks.

This will lead to improved identification and understanding of disaster risks which is an essential precursor for the management of disaster risks. GFDRR and partners will measure this result by evaluating evidence of national or city agencies specifically demonstrating: (i) improved generation or communication of disaster risk information; and (ii) increased application of risk information in public policy and investment planning.

Result Two: Risk Reduction By 2016, a minimum of 20 partner countries and their development partners will be better able to make decisions on where and how to reduce disaster risks in society.

This will help avoid the creation of new risks, and reduce existing risks in the societies of partner countries through the development of better planning and safer buildings. Ultimately, fewer lives and livelihoods will be lost thanks to this investment. GFDRR and partners will measure this result by evaluating evidence specifically demonstrating: (i) schools and other public infrastructure made safer through retrofitting or resilient construction; (ii) countries or cities implementing new or revised policies to address disaster risk; (iii) investment made in risk reduction measures; and (iv) vulnerable people taking action themselves to reduce risks in their communities.

Result Three: Preparedness By 2016, national and local agencies and civil society organizations (CSOs) in a minimum of 23 partner countries will be strengthened to provide better early warning of disasters and respond more effectively when they occur.

This will lead to improved warning and management of disasters at the national, local and community levels. Ultimately, fewer lives and livelihoods will be lost as a result of good preparation and sufficient warning. GFDRR and partners will measure this by evaluating evidence of countries specifically demonstrating: (i) increased accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts and early warning; (ii) improved performance of national or city agencies in the quality and timeliness of emergency response; and (iii) the proportion of the populations of vulnerable countries demonstrating an understanding of what to do in the event of a disaster to save their lives and their possesions.

Result Four: Financial Protection By 2016, a minimum of 16 partner countries will have better access to comprehensive information on their financial exposure to disaster risks; and their national agencies will be equipped with improved means to assess and manage fiscal and other financial risks in post-disaster situations.

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

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This will lead to the increased financial resilience of governments, the private sector and households, and ultimately a reduction in the negative impact of disasters on poverty and other human development indicators. GFDRR and partners will measure this result by evaluating evidence specifically demonstrating: (i) improved financial protection against disasters through reserves, contingency mechanisms or risk transfer by governments; (ii) countries adopting or improving budgetary mechanisms to allocate public resources in case of disasters; and (iii) more developed property catastrophe risk insurance markets and an increase in the proportion of people insured against loss or damage to their property.

Result Five: Resilient Recovery By 2016, a minimum of three partner countries will have enhanced capacity and improved plans for financing and implementing resilient recovery as part of the pilot implementation of a recovery framework; and up to 401 disaster affected countries will make better and more informed decisions on where and how to recover and rebuild.

This will lead to quicker, more resilient recovery from disasters when they strike in these countries. GFDRR and partners will measure this result by evaluating evidence specifically demonstrating: (i) countries using enhanced capacity and improved planning to implement resilient recovery and risk reduction programs; (ii) increased levels of financing for resilient recovery resulting from post-disaster assessments and other assistance; and (iii) the speed with which people re-establish lives and livelihoods in post-disaster situations.

To achieve these results, GFDRR will continue to expand its partnerships with local and national agencies to implement planned activities; with global and regional agencies to disseminate lessons learned; and with donors to mobilize and coordinate resources. In particular, GFDRR seeks to act as a vehicle for increased technical and financial cooperation between disaster prone countries and their development partners. This includes an increasing number of new and emerging donors who themselves have important DRM experience to share.

In order to gather the evidence of the impact of its program, GFDRR is committed to robust monitoring and evaluation. This is critical not only to learn what works, but also to be accountable to countries that provide and receive support. The cornerstone of this commitment is a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework (Annex I), which summarizes the results GFDRR seeks and the ways it will measure them. More detail on how GFDRR will do this will be provided in an evaluation strategy under separate cover. Two main products will provide stakeholders with information generated through this effort. First, an Annual Report will set out the outputs generated through GFDRR activities against annual plans and targets. Second, annual studies on impact will provide analysis of the contribution of these outputs to institutional reform and investment in DRM that can protect lives and livelihoods on the ground.

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Projection based on historical trend.

This Work Plan requires a total projected budget envelope of US$260 million. Based on current financing levels (as of April 1, 2013), GFDRR is seeking additional resources to fill an immediate financing gap of US$193 million for FY2014–2016.

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introduction This Work Plan sets out how GFDRR proposes to implement the new 2013–2015 strategy adopted by the GFDRR in December 2012: Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future.

The Work Plan responds to priorities articulated by disaster prone countries, and the plans GFDRR’s implementing partners have in place to address them. It is the result of a collaborative effort between GFDRR and partners to define how resources can be best allocated, and results measured. This included a review of GFDRR’s existing portfolio of programs, on which this Work Plan and the M&E framework (Annex 1) are based.

This is the first work planning exercise of its kind for GFDRR, and this document will now be updated annually under a rolling three-year planning cycle. This signals a transition for GFDRR from start-up initiative to maturing program. During the initial years, it was important to react flexibly to emerging priorities in focus countries, in order to first build momentum, and then establish broad program structure. As a maturing program, GFDRR has established relationships with partners in country through the ongoing implementation of a portfolio of active projects and – through this – greater foresight on how resources can best be allocated to achieve program objectives.

In this context, this document first gives an overview of how GFDRR works as a grant making facility to explain the mechanism through which this plan will be delivered. An outline of the Work Plan follows, which sets out how GFDRR proposes to stimulate improvements in institutional reform, policy change and investment for the protection of communities against natural hazards. An overview of planned outreach and partnership development comes next, setting out the role of these activities in supporting the overall program. The Work Plan concludes with plans for M&E and the resources GFDRR requires for

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

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implementation. The annexes contain further resources for partners to understand and track results, including an M&E framework for GFDRR. The scope of the Work Plan is program-wide, and not specific to any current single or multi-donor trust fund. For this reason, this plan includes activities for which financing is already secured and those for which GFDRR must mobilize new resources. The plan places a strong emphasis on existing priority countries, but does not exclude activities outside of those countries where there is current or planned support by a single donor, or where GFDRR sees particular opportunity to achieve results.

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how does GFDRR work?

The GFDRR Secretariat is hosted in the World Bank Headquarters in Washington DC. The Secretariat acts as trustee of financial resources contributed by donors. It comprises a core staff of 30 specialists responsible for awarding and managing grants, reporting on results, and outreach and partnership development. The Secretariat also acts as the support hub for a decentralized network of DRM expert focal points2 in priority countries. These specialists play a leading role in locally managing the GFDRR program and in developing relationships with governments and other partners in-country.

GFDRR is a grant-making facility – not a direct implementer – and it is through the awarding and management of these grants that this Work Plan will be delivered. Grant making has increased from US$6.4 million in fiscal year FY2007 to US$46.7 million in FY2012, and demand for support from GFDRR continues to grow, six years into the program. Financial resources are administered as grants to government agencies, their development partners, technical bodies, NGOs and others, and are typically one to three years in duration. Throughout, the Secretariat judges all grant proposals on their potential to leverage investment or institutional reform and behavior change for improved management of disaster risks.

GFDRR is responsible for allocating funds entrusted to it in line with geographic and thematic priorities set by its donors and partners. In any given country, GFDRR adopts a number of criteria to help in allocating resources, including: established vulnerability indicators; past evaluation of impact; the political context (including existing relations with governments); and donor priorities.

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GFDRR currently finances 23 national in-country focal points that help coordinate and support its program.

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Geographic priorities currently include 20 countries financed through a multi-donor trust fund, and 11 countries targeted by individual donors (see Map 1). Discussion on how best to prioritize resources geographically is ongoing with donors. This Work Plan should be considered in that context. GFDRR also manages special initiatives that focus on particular region or topics, including a five-year â‚Ź54 million initiative of the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States financed by the European Union.

Map 1: Where GFDRR works

GFDRR Priority Country

Donor Focus Country

Other GFDRR Engagement

PDNA/Post-Disaster Knowledge Exchange

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

proposed program for FY2014–2016 At the end of 2012, the CG adopted a new strategy, which set out the broad priorities of GFDRR’s program for the years to come.3 The plans presented in this section build on the existing portfolio, within an increasingly structured global operational framework along five pillars of action, as set out in the strategy (see Annex III for a summary).

This section outlines work planned under each pillar, results expected, and indicative financial resources required. Each pillar highlights a number of planned activites to illustrate the geographical scope and technical breadth of what will happen on the ground under this plan. Each highlighted activity is ready to launch during FY2014, either as a standalone project or as part of a larger program.4 A full overview of planned activities by country is in Annex II. More detailed information for individual priority countries can be found under separate cover in GFDRR Country Updates.

The overall logic of the GFDRR program is presented in Figure 1. GFDRR grants are awarded to proposals that demonstrate alignment with GFDRR’s five pillars of action in pursuit of five core program results (see Annex I Monitoring and Evaluation Framework): (i) Risk Identification – improved identification and understanding of disaster risks; (ii) Risk Reduction – avoided creation of new risks and reduced existing risks in society; (iii) Preparedness – improved warning and management of disasters at national, local and

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Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future: A Strategy for the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery 2013 – 2015, sets out GFDRR priorities for the period of 20132015 and will guide the implementation of work plans for FY14, FY15, and FY16.

4

Some flagship activities are planned as part of ongoing financed projects, others are unfinanced and subject to resource mobilization.

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(iii) Preparedness and Early Warning—improved warning and management of disasters at national, local and community level; (iv) Financial Protection—increased financial resilience of governments and private sector, and; (v) Resilient Recovery—quicker, more resilient recovery from disasters.

Across all pillars, grants support countries to develop capacity, generate new knowledge and apply this capacity and knowledge to implement reform and investment for DRM programs across pillars. This is often delivered as one package of support.

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Figure 1: GFDRR Program Logic

PILLAR 1

What we do

Training or mentoring in data collection, sharing and management; hazard and exposure modeling/ mapping; risk assessment; and risk communication Assistance to implement risk assessments; open-source software; open data practices; remote sensing; and institution building Knowledge or tools for risk assessment; open-source software; data platforms; and remote sensing

PILLAR 2

Training or mentoring in risk reduction policy; land-use planning; building standards; strategy; and planning and investment Assistance to implement investment or reform in risk reduction policy; land-use planning; building standards; strategy; and planning and investment

What we deliver

a. People in disaster prone countries

have access to comprehensive information about physical and societal exposure to disaster risk b. National agencies/cities are equipped with improved means to assess and communicate disaster risks

Disaster prone countries and their development partners are better able to make decisions on where and how to reduce disaster risks in society

New knowledge; policy analysis; sector specific norms; guidelines and tools

PILLAR 3

Training or mentoring in the use of disaster risk information for early warning; search and rescue; and contingency planning Assistance to implement investment or reform in emergency management; public awareness; early warning systems and national hydromet services

National and local agencies and CSOs are strengthened to provide better early warning of disasters and respond more effectively when they occur

New knowledge; policy analysis; hydromet feasibility studies; and operational guidelines

PILLAR 4

Training or mentoring in sovereign disaster risk financing; property catastrophe risk insurance; agricultural insurance; and disaster microinsurance Assistance to implement investment or reform in sovereign disaster risk financing; property catastrophe risk insurance; agricultural insurance; and disaster microinsurance

PILLAR 5

New knowledge; policy analysis; strategy reviews; feasibility studies; fiscal risk assessments; and financial analysis tools

Training or mentoring in the conduct of recovery assessments; good practice recovery planning; and implementation of standards in government systems Assistance to conduct post-disaster assessments and develop postdisaster recovery frameworks Development and dissemination of knowledge on disaster recovery

a. Disaster prone countries have better ac-

cess to comprehensive information on their financial exposure to disaster risks b. National agencies/cities are equipped with improved means to assess and manage fiscal and other financial risks

Disaster affected countries have enhanced capacity and improved plans for financing and implementing resilient recovery

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

What this leads to

Improved identification and understanding of disaster risks

Avoided creation of new risks and reduced existing risks in society

Improved warning and management of disasters at national, local and community level

Increased resilience of people to natural hazards Increased financial resilience of governments and private sector

Quicker more resilient recovery

A world where resilient societies manage and adapt to emerging disaster risks and the human and economic impacts of disasters are reduced

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Pillar One: Risk Identification People in vulnerable countries will have improved access to information about disaster and climate risks, and greater capacity to create, manage and use this information.

Since 2007, GFDRR has been supporting risk assessment programs at regional and national levels, including in Central America, the Pacific and more than 12 countries. The Facility has acquired substantial experience in this field and has gradually modified the way it engages with local partners towards a demand-driven, capacity-building approach linked to larger interventions. Most GFDRR engagements in risk assessment are now directly implemented by local actors, for example, the National Disaster Management Agency in Pakistan, or the Secretariat of the Pacific Community – Applied Geoscience and Technology Division (SOPAC) in Fiji.

BOX 1:

GFDRR Supported Innovation in Risk Identification

Open Data for Resilience Initiative (Open DRI): Launched in 2011, Open DRI seeks to apply the philosophy and practices of the open data movement to the challenge of building resilience to climate change and the impacts of disasters. OpenDRI is now active in more than 20 countries and is supporting community-mapping activities, developing innovative open source software applications and helping local authorities develop their own open data platforms for the use and sharing of data.5 Indonesia Scenario Assessment for Emergencies (InaSAFE): Developed as a collaboration between GFDRR Labs (see Annex III), the Indonesian Disaster Risk Management Agency (BNPB), and the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, InaSAFE is a simple, flexible software tool that allows a user to ask and answer ‘what if’ questions, and importantly highlights what can be done to reduce disaster impacts. The tool was recently recognized as one of the top-ten open source projects of 2012.6 GFDRR continues to support InaSAFE’s development with particular emphasis on training local authorities to use the tool.7 CAPRA Probabilistic Risk Assessment Program: Since 2008 GFDRR has been supporting the development of the CAPRA platform to design and implement targeted risk assessments. As a free GIS-based platform that can combine multi-hazard information with exposure and vulnerability data, CAPRA allows the user to quantify and visualize risk resulting from a range of hazards. Through GFDRR projects, local experts are trained in the use of CAPRA to design mitigation measures, assess alternative interventions, support contingency planning, and underpin risk-financing strategies. In El Salvador, GFDRR supported the Government to conduct a seismic risk analysis for the health, education, and public sector building portfolios in the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador. GFDRR is now supporting a policy dialogue with the Ministry of Finance to help the country take decisions on where and how to invest in risk reduction measures. Similar collaboration is underway with the governments of Costa Rica, Honduras and Belize. CAPRA also supports a thriving online community of more than 900 users.8 Understanding Risk (UR): GFDRR launched the UR Online Community of Practice in 2010, bringing together leading experts, practitioners and users of disaster risk analysis from a variety of fields. The UR initiative builds on the idea that mixing people from different walks of life leads to innovation. The UR Forum brings this community together every two years in state-of-the-art events that showcase best practices and the latest innovations. The 2012 UR Forum held in Cape Town, attracted 500 experts from more than 80 countries, representing government officials, insurance experts, engineering firms, risk modelers, space agencies and NGOs. The next Forum will take place in 2014.9

5

See www.gfdrr.org/opendri; www.geonode.org ; www. openstreetmap.org 6

See www.wired.com/ wiredenterprise/2013/01/ open-source-rookies-ofyear 7

See www.inasafe.org

8

See www.ecapra.org

9

See www.understandrisk.org

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GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

Over the next three years, GFDRR will scale up its current engagement to expand and strengthen the capacity of local counterparts (see Annex II). The Facility also plans to expand support in risk identification to at least eight additional countries (see highlights in Table 2). GFDRR will focus its efforts on transferring expertise to highly vulnerable, low capacity countries. Products and solutions in risk analysis will specifically target gaps in evidence or capacity, to inform the design of risk reduction, contingency planning and/ or financial protection programs through facilitating the application of risk information to decision making processes (Box 1). The program will place an increasing focus on activities that build capacity within local agencies to analyze, share and communicate risk information effectively. Whenever possible, GFDRR will work to integrate disaster risk and climate change considerations in risk assessment processes to guide policy decisions or large-scale investments.

Key Result By 2016 vulnerable communities in a minimum of 24 partner countries will have better access to information about physical and societal exposure to disaster risks; and national agencies or cities in these countries will be equipped with improved means to assess and communicate disaster risks.

This will lead to improved identification and understanding of disaster risks in partner countries, which is an essential pre-cursor for the management of disaster risks. GFDRR and partners will measure this by evaluating evidence of national or city agencies specifically demonstrating: (i) improved generation or communication of disaster risk information; and (ii) and increased application of risk information in public policy and investment planning. GFDRR will require a projected US$57.2 million to implement activities planned for risk identification during FY2014-2016 (Table 1).

Table 1: Indicative budget envelope for Risk Identification (US$ million) 2014

2015

2016

Total

18.5

18.7

20.0

57.2

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Table 2: Highlights of planned Risk Identification activities

Region Description AFR

Indian Ocean Islands Partners: Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), European Union (EU) and ACP Group of States (ACP) Description: GFDRR will work with the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) to develop a detailed risk assessment platform—similar to PCRAFI in the Pacific—to guide risk management interventions, including financial protection strategies. This will be phase one of a longer term financial protection program for vulnerable small-island states in the region. Indicative cost: US$1.3 million Nigeria Partners: Oyo State Government (OSG) Description: GFDRR will support Oyo State Government (OSG) in formulating a high resolution flood risk assessment for Ibadan city that will provide an overview analysis of the prevailing hazards and vulnerability under current and future climate scenarios, identify areas for priority intervention, and propose flood resilience measures. Indicative cost: US$1 million

EAP

Pacific Island Countries (PICs) Partners: Secretariat of the Pacific Community/Applied Geoscience and Technology Division (SPC/ SOPAC), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Government of Japan, Government of Australia, European Union (EU) and ACP Group of States Description: GFDRR has supported PICs build their resilience to disasters through the development of the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI). This enables the islands to collect and share risk information through an open-source platform. As part of the third phase, GFDRR will focus on strengthening the capacity of national and regional technical agencies and improving the data and platforms with which they are now working, including through improving climate change risk information. Indicative cost: US$1.4 million

ECA

Kyrgyz Republic Partners: Ministry of Finance (MoF) and Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES) Description: GFDRR will support MoF and MES to develop exposure datasets and hazard and risk maps to be used for awareness and communication with key stakeholders, develop probabilistic risk profiles and financial tools to assist the Government in the design of a comprehensive financial and fiscal strategy, and to assist relevant line ministries to prioritize and plan retrofitting and risk reduction measures for public infrastructure. These activities will be closely coordinated with the UNDP. Indicative cost: US$1.5 million

LCR

Central America and Caribbean Partners: UNISDR (Central America), UNDP (Caribbean) and Center for the Prevention of Natural Disasters in Central America (CEPREDENAC) Description: Launched in 2008, the GFDRR-supported Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) Program aims to strengthen the capacity of governments to assess, understand and apply disaster risk into development policies and programs. GFDRR will focus support to the program on building capacity for critical infrastructure sectors, including health, education and water and sanitation. As a result, countries will be better able to guide the integration of disaster risk assessments into these sectors. In addition, GFDRR will help national and city agencies quantify disaster risk in financial terms. Indicative cost: US$1.7 million

East Asia Pacific (EAP) South Asia (SAR) Africa (AFR) Middle East and North Africa (MNA) Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

17

MNA

Tunisia Partners: Ministry of Water, Ministry of Interior Tunisia is highly vulnerable to climate related hazards, particularly those resulting from variability in rainfall patterns. In order to address a lack of understanding on the likely impacts of such hazards and the policy implications, GFDRR will support a flood and drought hazard risk assessment in the country. This probabilistic assessment will identify the most at-risk areas of the country, and assess economic impacts and provide options for mitigation. In order to build capacity in the Government to manage sustained assessments, GFDRR will also support the training of key officials and personnel from data and statistical agencies on the risk assessment process, data management and the potential application in policy and investment decisions. Indicative cost: US$1 million

SAR

Pakistan Partners: National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Provincial Disaster Management Authorities, the Ministry of Finance, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Flood Commission, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Pakistan Geological Survey, Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), and UNISDR. Description: GFDRR will work with the NDMA to pilot a participatory approach to integrated risk assessment and risk financing. The program includes robust monitoring and evaluation that will be used to measure the success of the approach and scale up in five additional countries, which may include Indian Ocean Islands, Togo, Kyrgyz Republic, Laos, Nepal and Peru. Indicative cost: US$7 million Nepal Partners: Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA), Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD), National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET) Description: As the first initiative of a ‘South Asia Open Cities’ program, GFDRR will work with MoHA and MoUD to build understanding and consensus of the seismic risk in the Kathmandu Valley and flood risk in the Kosi River Basin. A participatory mapping of buildings and other infrastructure in the Kathmandu Valley on an open source online platform using ‘Open Street Map’ software is already well advanced and provides a solid basis for this work. The program will also provide MoHA and MoUD with a living 3D model of the Valley that identifies the level of risks to buildings to guide a large retrofitting program. The project looks set to leverage an investment of at least US$ 50 M in safe construction in the Valley over the coming years Activities are being closely coordinated with the International Federation of Red Cross and Crescent Societies (IFRC), USAID and UNDP. Indicative cost: US$2.7 million

*Financial information refers only to the activities presented, not the larger programs of which they may be part. Activities are for illustrative purposes and the list is not comprehensive. Some planned activities may be part of ongoing financed projects; others are subject to resource mobilization.

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Pillar Two: Risk Reduction People in vulnerable countries will be better protected through improved planning, better building practices and increased investments in vulnerability reduction.

GFDRR is currently supporting risk reduction programs in more than 15 countries. These engagements, mostly through technical assistance and capacity building, have already helped leverage more than US$2 billion in investments aimed at reducing the vulnerability of populations in disaster prone countries. GFDRR inputs are generally small-scale interventions, but in many cases have been an important factor in investment decisions by line ministries and other partners, and have led to large-scale investment in education, health, energy, transport, and water (Box 2). GFDRR rarely acts alone in this effort, and

BOX 2:

Examples of the role of GFDRR in leveraging investment in risk reduction

Malawi: Since 2011, GFDRR has been supporting the Ministry of Water Development and Irrigation in the design of a US$125 million program to improve land and water management in the Shire River Basin in Malawi. The Project Appraisal Document for the Shire River Basin Management Program (SRBMP) describes how the investment will build on work conducted by GFDRR: “Currently, the Bank, with funding under GFDRR, is supporting the Government of Malawi with the development of an Integrated Flood Risk Management Plan (IFRMP) for the Shire River Basin. The Action Plan will provide guidance on mitigation (infrastructure and readiness) interventions, flood zoning, forecasting and early warning, to all stakeholders in the basin… and will be supported by the SRBMP… [The program will] also support the introduction of systematic hydrologic forecasting in Malawi…refining tools developed as part of IFRMP.” GFDRR supported an analysis of the economic benefits from improved risk management in the Basin, which quantified the risk that floods and droughts pose for the socio-economic development of Malawi. This analysis was complemented by a series of capacity development efforts, which led to the development of the IFRMP. The resulting project aims to protect the livelihoods of 430,000 people, while generating benefits for millions that depend on the river.

Philippines: Following tropical storms Ondoy and Pepeng in 2009, GFDRR supported the Philippines’ Department for Public Works and Highways in the formulation of a Metro Manila Flood Risk Management Master Plan, which sets out 11 key structural mitigation interventions worth $8.6 billion. The Government of the Philippines formally endorsed the Plan in 2012. Speaking at the time, Philippines Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima commented that this support will boost the government’s efforts to strengthen the resilience of Metro Manila and surrounding towns and cities: “Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng affected close to one million people, many of whom belong to the poorest of the poor. Preventing similar disasters entails reforms in key governance issues such as land use planning, housing, water management, environmental protection, and disaster risk reduction.

This grant provides us additional resources to accelerate these reforms.”

Senegal: In 2012, GFDRR supported the city authorities of the capital Dakar in the design of a large scale investment program to protect communities from recurrent floods and storm surges that caused economic losses worth US$82 million that year alone and pushed already poor communities deeper into poverty. The Project Appraisal Document for the investment program describes the role of GFDRR: “A recent study financed

by GFDRR highlighted that almost 40 percent of new population in peri-urban Dakar has settled in areas with significant hazard potential, especially inland flooding… A Post-Disaster Need Assessment (PDNA) assessed the cost of the 2009 flooding in Senegal... The proposed project is supporting the implementation of the PDNA priority actions”. The US$55.5 million project targets Pikine and Guédiawaye municipalities located in floodprone, peri-urban catchment areas of Dakar, which are home to 1.2 million people. The funds will finance construction of improved drainage systems and the development of an integrated urban flood risk and storm water management program.

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GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

many partners – including development banks, bilateral donors and UN agencies – play a role in stimulating investment in risk reduction. A close partnership with the World Bank has ensured a strong alignment of analytical work and capacity building with subsequent large scale investments.

Over the next three years, GFDRR will continue to invest in activities that will influence and leverage large scale investments leading to risk reduction in all sectors (see highlights in Table 4). In this time period, the Facility aims to leverage a minimum of US$10 billion in resilience-building investments; this represents a five-fold increase on the 2013 baseline. In order to develop a positive environment for future decision-making about investing in risk reduction, GFDRR will deliver a series of targeted analytical and advisory projects designed to support the incorporation of risk considerations in policy and public investments. GFDRR will also continue to support the development of the necessary policy and regulatory environment, and incentives for the incorporation of risk considerations in public investments.

Key Result By 2016, a minimum of 20 partner countries and their development partners will be better able to make decisions on where and how to reduce disaster risks in society.

This will help avoid the creation of new risks, and reduce existing risks in the societies of partner countries through the development of better planning and safer buildings.

Ultimately, fewer lives and livelihoods will be lost thanks to this investment. GFDRR and partners will measure this result by evaluating evidence specifically demonstrating: (i) schools and other public infrastructure made safer through retrofitting or resilient construction; (ii) countries or cities implementing new or revised policies to address disaster risk; (iii) investment made in risk reduction measures; and (iv) vulnerable people taking action themselves to reduce risks in their communities.

GFDRR will require a projected US$92.1 million to implement activities planned for risk reduction during FY2014-2016 (Table 3).

Table 3: Indicative budget envelope for Risk Reduction (US$ million) 2014

2015

2016

Total

25.1

30.1

36.9

92.1

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Table 4: Highlights of planned Risk Reduction activities*

Region Description AFR

Mozambique Partners: National Disaster Management Institute (INGC), Ministry of Public Works and Housing (MoPH), Ministry of Education (MoE), and the Bureau of Norms, UN-Habitat, and the Faculty of Architecture of Eduardo Mondlane University (UEM) Description: GFDRR will work with INGC, MoPH, MoE and the Bureau of Norms, to implement resilient building codes to reduce the likelihood that children will be killed or injured as a result of building failure during a disaster. Similar work with health centers and other public infrastructure will follow with partners including UN-Habitat and the Faculty of Architecture of Eduardo Mondlane University (UEM). This activity will incorporate lessons learned in Madagascar. Indicative cost: US$0.4 million Togo Partners: Ministry of Environment, Global Environment Facility (GEF), European Union (EU) and ACP Group of States (ACP) Description: GFDRR will build the capacity of key government institutions and raise awareness about the risks of flooding and land degradation through awareness campaigns at national and local levels. In addition, GFDRR will work with local communities to expand adaptation and sustainable land management practices in climate vulnerable areas. Indicative cost: US$2.2 million

EAP

Philippines Partners: Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), the Metro Manila Development Authority, the Department of Health (DoH), and Department of Education (DoE) Description: Since early 2011, GFDRR has assisted DPWH with developing a master plan for flood management in Metro Manila and surrounding areas and in providing advice on flood risk management.

The plan calls for US$8.6 billion in investments over the next 20-25 years and was approved on September 4th, 2012. GFDRR has an important opportunity to support the implementation of the master plan focusing on developing institutional arrangements in the metro area for watershed management, reviewing building codes and guidelines, and developing local capacity for enforcement and regulation.

Indicative cost: US$5 million Indonesia Partners: Ministry of Public Works, Ministry of Home Affairs Description: GFDRR will work with PNPM to promote risk reduction in community based programs including the National Program for Community Empowerment Mandiri (PNPM). This program provides block grants for small-scale infrastructure, education and health activities at the local level, and GFDRR is working with the program to ensure these small scale interventions build the disaster resilience of the communities they serve. Indicative cost: US$2.8 million

LCR

Colombia Partners: National Unit for Disaster Risk Management, National Planning Department, Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of Education, National Infrastructure Agency, and Colombian Geological Service Description: Since 2012, GFDRR has supported the Rio Bogota Flood Committee to develop a detailed risk modeling platform used by the City of Bogota to guide risk reduction interventions, including retrofitting of schools and hospitals, as well as a comprehensive flood management program. GFDRR will continue to support the city with methodological guidelines for the inclusion of risk in policies and plans as well as the design of M&E tools for assessing implementation and effectiveness of DRM. Indicative cost: US$1.4 million

East Asia Pacific (EAP) South Asia (SAR) Africa (AFR) Middle East and North Africa (MNA) Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

MNA

Djibouti Partners: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Higher Education and Research Description: Since 2009, GFDRR has been working in Djibouti to establish a comprehensive risk assessment and communication platform. Initial results include the completion and dissemination of national DRM action plans; the establishment of a DRM E-Learning Lab; and the acquisition and establishment of 7 new hydro-met stations. To build on this initial success, GFDRR proposes to support the Government of Djibouti in responding to the findings of the risk assessment and communication platform and to restructure and empower DRM institutions, in light of the elevation of the importance with which the country now considers DRM. Indicative cost: US$2 million Yemen Partners: Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Public Works.

Description: In 2010, GFDRR contributed to the completion of three multi hazard risk assessments and a water harvesting feasibility study in Hadramout, Yemen. Over the next 3 years, and subject to the political and security situation, GFDRR will support the implementation of mitigation activities identified by the risk assessments. These include designing water harvesting/floods retention systems; operationalizing 5 existing DRM operational rooms and establishing an early warning system; and establishing a national DRM fund to address disaster preparedness, response, and reconstruction. Indicative cost: US$2 million

SAR

Bangladesh Partners: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, Department of Disaster Management, Ministry of Housing and Public Works, RAJUK (Dhaka Development Authority), Public Works Department, Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives, Dhaka City Corporation – South, Dhaka City Corporation – North, Armed Forces Division, Fire Brigade Description: GFDRR will work with the Ministry of Finance to build understanding and consensus as to the level of seismic risk in Dhaka. The program is engaging over 45 different stakeholders in a multi-year process to increase collective understanding of risk, identify major disincentives for resilient development, support planning for prevention, and gradually shift toward a more proactive approach to resilient development. This is expected to translate into a large investment program aimed at increasing resilience to seismic risk in urban environments, which will be phased over time. Indicative cost: US$6 million

* Financial information refers only to the activities presented, not the larger programs of which they may be part.

Activities are for illustrative purposes and the list is not comprehensive. Some planned activities may be part of ongoing financed projects; others are subject to resource mobilization.

21

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Pillar Three: Preparedness People in vulnerable countries will be better protected through more accurate and timely early warning, and through civil protection agencies capable of mobilizing a fast response in the event of a disaster.

GFDRR has supported the modernization and strengthening of national weather and climate services and broader early warning and preparedness capacity in more than 20 countries. In some cases, this has already led to significant investment and reform by partner countries (see Box 3). To enhance preparedness and response capacity, key priorities include developing standard operating procedures and strengthening information sharing and management; developing local contingency and emergency preparedness plans; linking the plans to early warning systems; and engaging in community-based preparedness planning, including drills and simulation exercises.

GFDRR has also played an instrumental role in developing evidence of the broader economic benefits of improved national hydromet services10, for example in helping to increase agricultural productivity, improve aviation safety or increase efficiency in the water resources management and energy sectors. This has led to a growing recognition on the part of governments of the need to develop better national systems for forecasting and early warning.

BOX 3:

Examples of GFDRR engagements on early warning

Central Asia: In 2008–2009, GFDRR supported the development of an action plan for improving weather and climate service delivery in low-income countries in Central Asia. Using the results of this study, the GFDRR team assisted the meteorological services of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the development of a US$27.7 million project to improve the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts in the region. The project aims to reduce avoidable economic losses from hydro-meteorological disasters. An estimated 12 million people stand to be better prepared for weather and climate extremes.

Vietnam: The GFDRR Hydromet team recently provided technical and advisory support to a national ‘Managing Natural Hazards’ project, which includes a $30 million investment to strengthen weather forecasting and early warning. Over five years, the project will improve the integration and usage of existing hydromet infrastructure and the communication lines between hydromet services and users. The target is to reach 100 communities with improved early warning and preparedness. This will include the installation and networking of 73 new weather stations and the adoption of a new integrated national early warning system and operations plan for the hydromet sector by 2014. In addition, GFDRR provided technical and financial support to the design and implementation of a government community based preparedness program, which targets 6,000 of the most vulnerable communities in the country.

Nepal: GFDRR provided core design support to the planned PPCR project ‘Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards’ (US$31M), which will develop an early warning system for the Kosi Basin in Nepal. An important precursor for an effective early warning system is a robust understanding of the hydrology of the river and the probability of flood events. GFDRR will also develop the first ever basin-wide flood model for the Kosi Basin.

The model will provide critical real-time information for early warning and will enable the Government of Nepal to better understand how and where people are most at risk. GFDRR will also support community preparedness for these warnings through groups such as the Nepal Red Cross Society.

10

See for example www. gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr.org/ files/publication/GFDRR_ ECA_Hydromet_Study.pdf

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GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

In the next three years, GFDRR will further develop capacity and leverage investment in strengthened hydromet services in disaster prone countries, with a particular emphasis on Africa (see highlights in Table 6). In order to develop a positive environment for future decision-making for investment in national hydromet services, GFDRR will deliver a series of targeted analytical and advisory projects designed to shift national discourses on preparedness and early warning. GFDRR will also identify opportunities to develop programmatic links between community-based approaches and larger scale investment in provincial and national preparedness plans, systems and operating procedures. To support knowledge exchange and coordinated work on strengthening hydromet services, GFDRR will also further reinforce its partnership with national meteorological services around the world.

GFDRR will continue to harness the potential of large-scale investment projects – including several projects to be financed by the Climate Investment Fund (CIF) – to build resilience to climate-related disasters in priority countries. For example, GFDRR will support the development of new hydro-meteorological modernization projects in Yemen, Mozambique, Vietnam, Lao, Cambodia and Nepal. This represents a minimum investment of US$105 million in leveraged financing.

Key Result By 2016 national and local agencies and CSOs in a minimum of 23 partner countries will be strengthened to provide better early warning and respond more effectively when disasters occur.

This will lead to improved warning and management of disasters at national, local and community level and, ultimately, fewer lives and livelihoods lost as a result of good preparation and sufficient warning. GFDRR and partners will measure this by evaluating evidence of countries specifically demonstrating: (i) increased accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts and early warning; (ii) improved performance of national or city agencies in the quality and timeliness of emergency response; and (iii) the proportion of the populations of vulnerable countries demonstrating an understanding of what to do in the event of a disaster to save their lives and their assets. GFDRR will require a projected US$46.1 million to implement activities planned for preparedness during FY2014-2016 (Table 5).

Table 5: Indicative budget envelope for Preparedness (US$ million) 2014

2015

2016

Total

13.3

15.1

17.7

46.1

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Table 6: Highlights of planned Preparedness activities*

Region Description AFR

Lesotho Partners: Disaster Management Agency (DMA), the Lesotho Meteorological Services, and the Ministry of Energy, Meteorology and Water Affairs, World Food Program (WFP), European Union (EU) and ACP Group of States (ACP) Description: GFDRR will work with DMA, the Lesotho Meteorological Services, and the Ministry of Energy, Meteorology and Water Affairs to support the establishment of an early warning system and to provide the technical support and capacity development needed for better lead times for decision making. In parallel, GFDRR will support the establishment of an Information Management System to ensure information can be managed more effectively across institutions. Indicative cost: US$0.5 million Niger Partners: Prime Minister's office, African Development Bank (AfDB), and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Description: At the request of the highest level of government, GFDRR will work with the Prime Minister's office to develop a legal, governance and operational framework for emergency preparedness. This includes defining roles and responsibilities, and ensuring institutional collaboration for hazard monitoring and forecasting, development of risk-informed early warning bulletins, information sharing and dissemination, and the activation of emergency response plans. Indicative cost: US$0.3 million Burkina Faso Partners: National Council for Disaster Management and Recovery (CONASUR) Description: GFDRR will support CONASUR to enhance the country's preparedness and response capacity. Key priorities include the development of local contingency and emergency preparedness plans; linking the plans to the early warning system; and community-based preparedness planning, including drills and simulations exercises. These activities are being closely coordinated with the UNDP. Indicative cost: US$1 million Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Partners: Ministry of Transport and Communications, National Agency of Meteorology and Remote Sensing by Satellite (MettelSat), Airways Agency (RVA) and Waterways Agency (RVF) Description: GFDRR will provide main technical support for identification and preparation of investment project which will strengthen delivery of weather, climate and hydrological information and services.

One of main expected results of the project will be creation and testing of early warning system in the DRC. Indicative cost: US$0.15 million Mozambique Partners: National Directorate of Water (DCA), the National Institute for Meteorology (INAM), Regional Water Authorities (ARAs) Description: GFDRR will provide technical support to INAM, DCA and ARAs to build resilience through strengthening hydrological and meteorological information services to provide accurate and timely information products on weather and water. The support will focus on strengthening weather, climate and hydrological information management systems, as well as improvement of the delivery of information and services to communities vulnerable to floods in the Zambezi, to farmers dependent on weather information in the Limpopo, and to fishermen at risk of rapidly changing weather conditions. Indicative cost: US$0.1 million

East Asia Pacific (EAP) South Asia (SAR) Africa (AFR) Middle East and North Africa (MNA) Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

EAP

25

Lao PDR Partners: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE), National Disaster Management Office (NDMO), World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and Asian Development Bank (ADB) Description: GFDRR will work with MoNRE to improve hydro-meteorological services and early warning systems. Support will focus on improving multi-hazard early warning systems and drafting a decree on meteorology and hydrology. Indicative cost: US$0.2 million Vanuatu Partners:Vanuatu Meteorological and Geohazards Department (VMGD), Global Environment Facility (GEF), European Union (EU) and ACP Group of States (ACP) Description: GFDRR will work with the VMGD to strengthen early warning systems by strengthening multi-hazard standard operating procedures and establishing real-time data communication network linking the existing volcano, seismic and weather observing stations with the national data and warning centers. This activity is part of a multi-year program financed by various actors, including GFDRR (ACPEU NDRR Program), GEF and GCCA. Indicative cost: US$0.6 million

LCR

Haiti Partners: Directorate of Civil Protection (DPC), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Harvard Graduate School of Design (GSD), Leibniz University, and Haitian universities.

Description:GFDRR will work with the DPC to improve disaster preparedness by modernizing the country's evacuation shelter network and engaging local communities in mapping and emergency planning . GFDRR will partner with universities in Haiti, the United States and Europe to provide innovative solutions and develop methodological approaches for the improvement of evacuation shelters. This includes examining and documenting best practices for evacuation shelters and systems, feeding this knowledge into innovative designs which reflect the Haitian context, and evaluating the effectiveness of current evacuation systems and policies. Indicative cost: US$0.2 million. This pilot initiative is expected to guide a US$6.5 million investment in the construction of emergency shelters and US$6.0 million in preparedess activities at community level.

SAR

Nepal Partners: Ministry of Agriculture Development (MoAD) and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) Description: GFDRR will provide technical support to upgrade the existing hydrometeorological system and agricultural management information system and establish multi-hazard information and early warning systems to better prepare climate-vulnerable communities and key weather dependent sectors of Nepal's economy. Indicative cost: US$0.1 million

MNA

Yemen Partners: Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) and Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MPIC) Description: GFDRR will provide technical support to EAP and MPIC to build climate resilience through upgrading the existing meteorological and hydrological observing networks, improving the timeliness and accuracy of weather and flood forecasts and warnings, and delivering better weather, climate and water services. Indicative cost: US$0.1 million

* Financial information refers only to the activities presented, not the larger programs of which they may be part.

Activities are for illustrative purposes and the list is not comprehensive. Some planned activities may be part of ongoing financed projects; others are subject to resource mobilization.

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Pillar Four: Financial Protection Vulnerable countries will have improved financial resilience to the impact of natural disasters, with improved post-disaster financial response capacity and stronger domestic catastrophe insurance markets.

Since its creation, GFDRR has played an important role supporting countries to fill gaps in evidence or capacity to inform the design of financial protection strategies. GFDRR has also worked closely with partners in the development of new financing mechanisms, products and tools to help increase disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) options available for vulnerable countries. Thanks to GFDRR interventions, priority countries including Colombia, Costa Rica, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and the Philippines already benefit from innovative instruments that provide immediate liquidity for the government after disasters. GFDRR is currently providing funding and expertise to 27 countries to help governments reduce financial risks, for example by better understanding their contingent liability resulting from adverse natural events and guiding the design of financial protection strategies (Box 4).

BOX 4:

GFDRR-supported financial protection strategies and instruments

GFDRR provides continued technical support to reform the National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS) in India – which, together with its successor schemes, constitutes the largest crop insurance program in the world with more than 25 million farmers insured. This project is reducing delays in claims payments provided to farmers and providing improved coverage and highlights the need for strong public-private partnerships. Considered ‘best practice’ by the World Bank, it is informing agricultural insurance improvement projects around the world.11 The Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative estimated that, on average, Pacific Island countries lose US$ 284 million, or 1.7 percent of the region’s GDP, to damages from disasters every year. Under the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Pilot, which benefits from GFDRR expertise, participating countries can access market-based catastrophe risk insurance solutions for the first time as part of comprehensive national DRM strategies.12 The collaboration with the Asian Development Bank and SOPAC also led to the creation of a risk assessment platform cataloguing more than 2 million assets.

A GFDRR funded Damage and Loss Assessment and subsequent technical assistance in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Ida, lead to a Contingent Credit (CAT DDO) to the government of El Salvador that was approved in February 2011. CAT-DDOs are financing instrument that allow the recipient country rapid access to financing in case of a disaster. Programs are contingent on the implementation of a comprehensive reform program aimed at reducing risk. The instrument allowed El Salvador to access US$ 50 million after catastrophic flooding last year.

Partnering with the ASEAN Secretariat, GFDRR experts carried out a financial risk assessment of disasters in the ASEAN region to build a framework for DRFI engagements. The results provide the basis for a preliminary quantitative, probabilistic data set on major catastrophe risks which is now available to ASEAN Member States and which led to the identification of priority areas for financial protection engagement.13

11

See www.gfdrr.org/ sites/gfdrr.org/files/ DRFI_India_mNAIS_Report_July11.pdf 12

See www.pcrafi.sopac.org 13

See www.gfdrr.org/ node/336

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Initiatives like the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) help identify priority areas and guide DRFI engagements. In 2011, GFDRR launched an initiative to identify the financial vulnerabilities of Sub-Saharan African countries to natural disasters. Five DRFI country reviews for priority countries Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Senegal and Togo have been produced so far to identify areas for engagement.

Over the coming year, GFDRR plans to conduct similar reviews in at least five additional priority countries, which will serve as a diagnostic tool to identify and guide priority areas for engagement, including the development of financial protection strategies and the development of insurance markets. To better inform public finance dimensions of risk management, GFDRR will develop new tools to quantify the budget impacts of disasters and improve monitoring of investments in disaster and climate risk management, such as through the inclusion of disaster losses and risk management investments in public expenditure reviews. For highlights of planned activities please see Table 8.

Recognizing the innovative nature of the field and the consequent lack of evidence or data on impact, GFDRR will also start an evaluations program to establish evidence on the relative benefits of alternative DRFI approaches as well as on the cost-benefit of investing in DRFI strategies.

Key Result By 2016 a minimum of 16 partner countries will have better access to comprehensive information on their financial exposure to disaster risks; and their national agencies will be equipped with improved means to assess and manage fiscal and other financial risks.

This will lead to the increased financial resilience of governments and private sector and households, and, ultimately, a reduction in the negative impact of disasters on poverty and other human development indicators. GFDRR and partners will measure this by evaluating evidence specifically demonstrating: (i) improved financial protection against disasters through reserves, contingency mechanisms or risk transfer by governments; (ii) countries adopting or improving budgetary mechanisms to appropriate and execute public resources in case of disasters; and (iii) more developed property catastrophe risk insurance markets and an increase in the proportion of people insured against loss or damage to their property. GFDRR will require a projected US$23.4 million to implement activities planned for financial protection during FY2014-2016 (Table 7).

Table 7: Indicative budget envelope for Financial Protection (US$ million) 2014

2015

2016

Total

6.2

7.6

9.5

23.4

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Table 8: Highlights of planned Financial Protection activities*

Region Description AFR

Ethiopia Partners: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), National Meteorology Agency, World Food Program (WFP), US Agency for International Development, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) Description: Since 2008, GFDRR has been working with MARD and WFP to develop a weather-based index for triggering emergency financing (LEAP) to strengthen Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program.

As a result, currently Ethiopia's National Meteorology Agency receives real time weather data every 15 minutes which allow to quantify and index drought and excessive rainfall. GFDRR will support the further refinement, development and validation of LEAP, as well as the development of capacity at national and sub-national levels to implement the Index. Indicative cost: US$0.7 million

EAP

Philippines Partners: Department of Finance (DOF) and Office of Civil Defence (OCD) Description: GFDRR will support the design of a risk financing strategy and risk financing instruments to augment the CAT-DDO and enhance the government’s ability to manage its sovereign fiscal risks due to disasters, building on a first phase of support which resulted in a contingent loan worth US$500 million which offers immediate liquidity after disaster. Indicative cost: US$2 million Indonesia Partners: Fiscal Policy Office, Directorate General of Budget, Financial Sector Authority, National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB), Chambers of Commerce (KADIN) Description: In order to support the country to reduce the financial and fiscal impacts of disasters, GFDRR will provide support to develop catastrophe risk insurance solutions for community and smallto-medium enterprises and develop a sovereign disaster risk-financing strategy to protect the Government's fiscal sustainability in time of major disaster. Indicative cost: US$0.6 million

East Asia Pacific (EAP) South Asia (SAR) Africa (AFR) Middle East and North Africa (MNA) Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

EAP

29

Pacific Islands Partners: Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC/SOPAC), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Government of Japan Description: 15 Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are receiving advisory services and capacity building to improve their macroeconomic planning against natural disasters. Of these, five countries are participating in the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Pilot, a two-year pilot of parametric sovereign catastrophe insurance that provides immediate liquidity in the aftermath of a severe catastrophe. Participating countries include Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu. The risk financing initiative with the PICs builds on the experience of the Caribbean with the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) and will inform the dialogue that has already begun with Indian Ocean Islands. Indicative cost: US$1.4 million Lao PDR Partners: Ministry of Finance and National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) Description: Building on post-disaster recovery activities which raised the awareness of the high costs of natural disasters, GFDRR will work with the NDMO to develop a financial risk profile and a feasibility study for risk financing and insurance options. The total indicative funding requirement is US$0.3 million

LCR

Guatemala Partners: Ministry of Agriculture (MAGA) Description: GFDRR will work with MAGA to develop an agriculture insurance market in Guatemala. The focus will be on making weather and agriculture statistics available to insurance companies, developing a public-private sector strategy for agriculture insurance, and capacity building for offering agriculture insurance. Indicative cost: US$0.2 million Colombia Partners: Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MHCP) Description: Building on longstanding engagement to enhance the country's resilience to natural hazards, GFDRR will work with the MHCP to build financial resilience. Priority activities will include the development of policy guidelines for disaster risk financing and insurance; support for a centralized insurance approach for central government buildings; and technical advice on the analysis and preparation of market-based catastrophe risk transfer products. Similar work has been requested from other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia Pacific; Colombia is regarded as a model for these engagements. Indicative cost: US$1 million

* Financial information refers only to the activities presented, not the larger programs of which they may be part.

Activities are for illustrative purposes and the list is not comprehensive. Some planned activities may be part of ongoing financed projects; others are subject to resource mobilization.

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Pillar 5: Resilient Recovery Disaster-hit countries seeking GFDRR support will improve the quality and timeliness of recovery and reconstruction.

Since 2007, GFDRR has assisted around 50 disaster-affected countries with post-disaster assessments and support in recovery operations (Box 5). The majority of these interventions have been in low-income countries and in response to hydro-meteorological disasters, such as floods, storms, cyclones and drought. Through its capacity building program, GFDRR has become a major provider of training on post-disaster needs assessments.

From 2007 to 2011, GFDRR offered 169 training and learning events, reaching more than 14,400 policy makers and technical experts. These trainings equip governments with the tools, skills, and knowledge needed for improving and strengthening their recovery preparedness and response systems.

BOX 5:

GFDRR support to post-disaster countries

A detailed review of 32 post-disaster damage and needs assessments (PDNA) shows that these interventions have helped guide at least 61 medium to long-term recovery programs amounting to more than US$6.3 billion, including US$3.36 billion for disaster-specific components. In a sample of 22 World Bank recovery interventions leveraged by PDNAs, nearly 70 million people in 12 countries are expected to benefit from recovery investments in sectors such as housing, water and sanitation, physical and social infrastructure, agricultural productivity, education, and livelihood support. The investments from these 22 projects have shown results, including the construction of 3,600 km of roads, 685 safe shelters and 1,400 wells with hand pumps built to disaster resilient standards. Ex-ante preparation greatly influences the outcomes of post-disaster recovery efforts. However, the lack of preparedness (for example data limitations and inadequate capacity) is often a challenge for the timely completion of PDNAs and towards such assessments leading to resilient recovery. To address these challenges, GFDRR is launching a ‘Preparing Countries for Recovery’ initiative which will help countries implement better recovery planning by investing before the disaster hits.

Over the next three years, GFDRR’s aim is to deepen and widen its engagement in disaster affected countries in order to support and catalyze resilient recovery, and use the momentum generated by the recovery process for leveraging longer-term risk reduction (see Table 10 for highlights of plans). As part of this effort, GFDRR is working with UNDP and the European Commission on the establishment of a recovery framework to guide future postdisaster engagements, and to help countries face the complex management challenge that disasters pose. Based on historical experience, GFDRR expects up to 40 post-disaster assessments over the course of this Work Plan.

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By 2016, a minimum of 3 partner countries will have enhanced capacity and improved plans for financing and implementing resilient recovery as part of the pilot implementation of a recovery framework, and up to 40 disaster affected countries will make better and more informed decisions on where and how to recover and rebuild.14 This will lead to quicker, more resilient recovery from disasters when they strike in these countries. GFDRR and partners will measure this result by evaluating evidence specifically demonstrating: (i) countries using enhanced capacity and improved planning to implement resilient recovery and risk reduction programs; (ii) levels of financing for resilient recovery resulting from post-disaster assessments and other assistance; and (iii) the speed with which people reestablish lives and livelihoods in post-disaster situations. GFDRR will require a projected US$34.2 million to implement activities planned for resilient recovery during FY2014-2016 (Table 9).

Table 9: Indicative budget envelope for Resilient Recovery (US$ million)

14

Projection based on historical trend

2014

2015

2016

Total

9.9

11.2

13.2

34.2

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Table 10: Highlights of planned Resilient Recovery activities

Global development and launch of a recovery framework tool and country case studies Partners: National governments, UNDP, EU Description: GFDRR will develop and launch a Disaster Recovery Framework (DRF) tool, including documentation of recovery experiences, responding to demand by countries at the World Reconstruction Conference 2011.

The tool will provide governments in countries hit by disasters to lead a consultative process to prioritize and sequence planning and programming of post-disaster recovery interventions with focus on institutional, funding, operational and monitoring aspects of recovery and reconstruction. The DRF tool will be developed by analyzing 10 to 12 post-disaster recovery efforts since the 2004 Tsunami. Indicative cost: US$1 million Development of capacity for post-disaster assessments for resilient recovery Partners: Regional organizations, national technical institutions, UNDP and EU Description: GFDRR will expand its capacity building program, including scaling up PDNA capacity development through regional organizations, just in time trainings for PDNA capacity development at the national level, introductory and advanced E-learning on PDNA, recovery and preparedness, knowledge and material development for capacity building programs, and PDNA courses for donors and partners to extend PDNA partnership base to reach more than 5000 public officials and DRM professionals. Indicative annual cost: US$1 million Support to disaster affected countries for nationally-led post-disaster assessments Partners: National governments, UNDP, EU and other development partners Description: GFDRR will support national governments to conduct both full-fledged and rapid post-disaster assessments in a projected 40 plus post-disaster countries, development of national recovery frameworks in these countries, and sustained post-assessment efforts for facilitating recovery and its translation into longer term risk reduction. The indicative cost of this activity is approximately US$3 million annually, depending on events.

Piloting the recovery framework Partners: National governments and respective disaster management entities, UNDP, EU, and other development partners Description: GFDRR will support pilot implementation of the recovery framework, including: institutionalizing and customizing the PDNA process to the country context; refining data validation techniques and capacity development for recovery; and simplifying country systems for procurement, public financial management, and accountability. The activity is underway in Kyrgyz Republic, and is being developed for Indonesia, Djibouiti, and Malawi. Indicative cost: US$1 million Strengthening civil society and public sector collaboration in post-disaster assessment, recovery planning and implementation Partners: National governments, disaster management entities, CSOs, UNCP, EU, and other development partners Description: GFDRR will design and support pilots to initiate a formal process for civil society and government collaboration in the post-disaster assessment phase and recovery planning and implementation through training of CSOs in PDNA and workshop to develop process/methodology on how Vulnerability Capacity Assessment (VCA) could complement the recovery needs identified by PDNA. Indicative cost: US$0.5 million

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partnering with others As set out in the Charter, GFDRR conducts outreach and develops partnerships to mobilize resources, build technical and operational collaboration, and disseminate lessons learned in countries at the regional and global level. Close cooperation with agencies of the UN system is a cornerstone of this agenda (Box 6).

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

BOX 6:

Partnerships with UN agencies

The close cooperation with the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) as the Secretariat of the ISDR System is at the core of the GFDRR partnership. The renewal of both the Hyogo Framework for Action and the Millennium Development Goals is an important opportunity to strengthen DRM as a development priority.

GFDRR is working with the World Bank, the UN, and other partners to promote the integration of disaster risk management into the Post-2015 framework. In addition GFDRR is increasing cooperation with several other actors and agencies of the UN system: Building on long collaboration implementing a joint work plan, GFDRR and UNISDR have initiated a number of technical partnerships. In FY2014 these include work on the Global Assessment Report 2015, the development of risk profiles combining ISDR disaster loss data with GFDRR experience in risk assessments, and cooperation on the Disaster Aid Tracking initiative.

- GFDRR works with UNDP in the development of a recovery framework and in providing ex-ante support to disaster prone countries.

- Cooperation with WMO remains a cornerstone of the Hydro-met program and GFDRR is increasing cooperation with UNEP for ecosystem based DRM. - Collaboration with FAO and ILO are integral to post-disaster operations for resilient recovery.

Mobilizing Resources Investing in resilience requires sustained and predictable financial resources from development partners. Responding to demand, GFDRR seeks to expand and develop its role as a global financing mechanism. The Secretariat is supporting the CG in fundraising to implement GFDRR’s mission and this Work Plan. GFDRR will also work with partners to better align funding sources for DRM, and climate risk management and invest in new tools and methodologies for strengthening the design of climate smart investment operations that encourage anticipatory adaptation to long-term climate change threats. By actively engaging non-traditional donors to join as members, GFDRR is diversifying donor coordination and increasing technical cooperation in the CG. By 2016, GFDRR will mobilize the necessary funds in order to support the proposed doubling of the program from US$46.7 M (FY2012) to US$100 M (FY2016) .

Strengthening Technical and Operational Partnerships GFDRR works with a wide range of partners to implement its program. Local actors are the primary partners in the implementation of GFDRR supported activities. At the international level this includes cooperation with UN agencies, bilateral and multilateral development partners, and increasingly, collaboration with non-traditional partners such as civil society organizations, the private sector, foundations, academia and research institutions. Last year GFDRR has started implementation of the pilot phase of the civil society strategy endorsed at the 12th CG meeting (Box 7). In FY2014 GFDRR will also strengthen engagement with private sector and research institutions to document and disseminate global knowledge and innovative approaches to DRM, as well as develop technical partnerships.

By FY2016, GFDRR will implement a minimum of 5 pilot initiatives in cooperation with

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

35

non-traditional partners.

Disseminating Good Practices and Lessons Learned GFDRR responds to requests by partners to draw from experience in disaster prone countries to inform international policy processes. Facilitating knowledge exchange between countries and supporting policy coordination, this work aims to enhance the impact of DRM programs of governments, bilateral and multilateral donors, UN agencies and intergovernmental organizations. For example, GFDRR supported the Government of Mexico to elevate risk assessment and risk financing to the 2012 G20 agenda, and the Government of Japan in hosting the Sendai Dialogue to establish DRM as a priority at the 2012 World Bank – IMF Annual Meetings. This seeks to support the integration of DRM in development strategies, and to improve coordination of humanitarian, development, and climate change adaptation policies to strengthen implementation of programs at the country level. By 2016, GFDRR will publish at least two flagship knowledge products drawing on GFDRR experiences in country and supporting analytical work, for example on measuring the impact of disasters on poverty.

GFDRR will require a projected US$7 million to implement activities planned for Outreach and Partnership Development during FY2014-2016 (Table 12).

BOX 7:

Implementation of GFDRR’s Civil Society Strategy

GFDRR’s civil society strategy was endorsed at the 12th meeting of the Consultative Group in April 2012. In the implementation of the pilot phase for this strategy, GFDRR is working with various networks of civil society organizations and in close partnership with the World Bank’s Social Development Resilience team to leverage Bank mechanisms that work directly at the community level and with civil society in order to build resilience of poor communities at the necessary scale. Key activities in FY2014 include: - Pilot country engagement, this has already started in Papua New Guinea and Nepal - A report on Community Driven Development and DRM has been produced and the development of a second report on good practice on Civil Society and Government engagement in DRM - The development of an online platform to map CSO actors in DRM in order to strengthen the ability of policy makers and CSOs to engage in collaboration, networking, partnerships, shared actions and knowledge exchange - Consultations with civil society representatives as part of the development of the recovery framework guide - Work with partners to develop a stronger and more strategic engagement in community driven development for DRM.

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Table 11: Highlights of planned Outreach and Partnership Development activities

Support alignment of the DRM and climate adaptation financing agendas Partners: Development partners GFDRR will invest in new tools and methodologies for strengthening projects that help manage disaster risk now and offer near-term development benefits, while reducing vulnerability to climate risks over the longer term.

Developing an integrated tool bringing together the Open DRI initiative and the Climate Change Knowledge Portal, the World Bank will enhance access to integrated data and advice on managing climate and disaster risks.

GFDRR will also continue to support the ‘Turn Down the Heat’ report series, and continue development and implementation of a disaster aid tracking initiative to harmonize reporting of and track DRM-related financing.

Indicative cost: US$0.2 million High-level international policy dialogue Partners: Multilateral and bilateral development agencies, partner country governments This agenda is driven by requests from partners and donors to GFDRR. A number of engagements are already confirmed, including the Resilience Dialogue, support to the consultations on the post-2015 Development Framework, the Fifth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD V), and the Second World Reconstruction Conference. Indicative cost: US$0.1 million Develop evidence-based knowledge products Partners: Development and country partners, academic and research institutions Drawing on cross-sectoral expertise and operational experience across the World Bank and its partners, GFDRR will strengthen development of knowledge products to further build the business case for mainstreaming DRM into development planning, this will include a flagship publication on the cost-benefit of DRM and disaster impacts on the economy, poverty reduction and public finances. Indicative cost: US$0.2 million Suport the development of the Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015 Partners: UNISDR Developed by UNISDR, the GAR is the authoritative biennial report on the state of disaster risk and its management worldwide. As for previous editions, GFDRR will provide technical experitse to the report, with particular engagement in the areas of risk assessment, community involvements in DRR, risk financing, and the economics of disasters. Indicative cost: US$0.3 million Implementation of GFDRR’s Civil Society Strategy Partners: GNDR, World Bank Social Development Resilience Team This will include a good practice report on Civil Society and Government engagement in DRM as well as an online mapping of Civil Society Actors in DRM to strengthen the ability of policy makers and civil society organizations to engage in collaboration, networking, partnerships, shared actions and knowledge exchange, This will be developed in partnership with the Global Network of Civil Society Organizations for Disaster Reduction (GNDR) and the World Bank’s Social Development Resilience team. Indicative cost: US$0.4 million (this does not include funding for pilot projects in-country)

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GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

Strengthen private sector engagement Partners: Private Sector Building on established cooperation around risk assessment and risk-financing, GFDRR will set up a working group with other units of the World Bank Group, including IFC and MIGA, to identify 2 pilot projects to work with the private sector to share best practice in DRM. Indicative cost: US$0.1 million Strengthen gender considerations in DRM Partners: Civil Society Organizations, World Bank Gender Specialists GFDRR will invest in further strengthening the gender perspectives in all its work and programs. Collaboration with civil society representatives and World Bank specialists will support the integration of gender aspects in GFDRR financed projects and support the dissemination of lessons learned to its partner countries and organizations. Indicative cost: US$0.1 million

Table 12: Indicative budget envelope for Outreach and Partnership Development (US$ million) 2014

2015

2016

Total

2.0

2.3

2.7

7.0

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

measuring results GFDRR’s new strategy includes a commitment to report regularly on results to its donors, partner countries and other stakeholders. Accordingly, GFDRR will scale up its capacity to monitor, evaluate, and report results as a key aspect of this Work Plan. The objective is to establish systems and methodologies that can provide useful inputs into resource allocation decisions, as well as to assess the effectiveness of GFDRR interventions to achieve results and generate lessons for learning and improvement over time. The cornerstone of this commitment is a M&E framework (Annex I), which summarizes the results GFDRR seeks and the ways it will measure them. During the work plan period, GFDRR will monitor, evaluate and report on three types of results (see Table 13).

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Table 13: GFDRR Results at the output, outcome and impact level

Result type

Description

Outputs

- Direct result of GFDRR activities - short time-lag (1 – 3 years) - achievement fully within GFDRR control - takes the form of new or improved knowledge, capacity or other enabling factor in vulnerable countries designed to stimulate behavior change, reform or investment in DRM

Example from GFDRR M&E Framework National and local agencies and CSOs’ capacities are strengthened, so that they can provide better early warning of disasters and respond more effectively when they occur

Verification through GFDRR portfolio monitoring Outcomes

- Indirect result of GFDRR activities - medium time-lag (up to 5 years) - achievement partially within GFDRR control and requires contribution by others

Improved warning and management of disasters at national, local and community level

- takes the form of a behavior change, institutional reform or investment in DRM made by vulnerable countries themselves Verification through evaluative activities, including commissioned country-level studies Impacts

- Ultimate result of action by vulnerable countries and their development partners (including GFDRR) - Long time-lag (5 years +) - GFDRR is one of many actors, but can make an important contribution - takes the form of lives and livelihoods better protected or otherwise resilient through behavior change, institutional reform or investment made Verification through evaluative activities and long-term monitoring of disaster loss trends

Increased resilience of people to natural hazards

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Monitoring of Outputs For program performance management, an activity monitoring tool (Annex II) provides an overview of planned activities for FY2014. This information tool will be used by GFDRR for grant allocation and for reporting. Based on these planned activities, GFDRR has set targets for the delivery of outputs during this work plan period (see Table 14). These targets will be reviewed on an annual basis in light of progress reported and revisions to plans in place.

Table 14: Overview of 2016 output targets

OUTPUT TARGET

Risk Identification

Risk Reduction

Vulnerable communities in a minimum of 24 partner countries will have better access to information about physical and societal exposure to disaster risks; and national agencies or cities in these countries will be equipped with improved means to access and communicate these risks.

A minimum of 20 partner countries and their development partners will be better able to make their decisions on where and how to reduce disaster risks in society.

Preparedness National and local agencies and CSOs in a minimum of 23 partner countries will strengthened to provide better early warning of disasters and respond more effectively when they occur.

Financial Protection

Resilient Recovery

A minimum of 16 partner countries will have better access to comprehensive information on their financial exposure to disaster risks; and their national agencies will be equipped with improved means to access and manage fiscal and other risks.

A minimum of 3 partner countries will have enhanced capacity and improved plans for financing and implementing resilient recovery as part of a recovery framework, and up to 40 disaster affected countries will make better and more informed decisions on where and how to recover and rebuild.

Implementation partners at the project and country level are responsible for reporting to the GFDRR Secretariat on activities conducted and outputs delivered. In order to most effectively monitor its portfolio, GFDRR is reviewing its grants management system to enable project teams, using standard indicators by pillar, to provide the necessary data and analysis. Project teams will be requested to complete monitoring reports every six months.

GFDRR, following the activity monitoring tool, will track and aggregate the information, and make these reports accessible to its donors.

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Evaluating Outcomes and Impacts GFDRR will evaluate the contribution of the outputs the program generates to the achievement of outcomes sought according to the indicators set out in the monitoring and evaluation framework (Annex I). At the country level, annual in-depth studies conducted in a sample of countries will be the core of the GFDRR evaluation strategy.15 These will include: (i) in-depth contextual analysis in a sample of countries, for example, on factors of success; (ii) comparative analysis across countries; (iii) thematic evaluation, for example, across or within a particular pillar of action; (iv) qualitative assessment of perceptions of change amongst different groups through surveys or focus groups; (v) self-assessment by responsible agents; and (vi) theory-based approaches to test underlying assumptions behind what GFDRR does.

Wherever possible, independent experts will be commissioned to carry out these studies.

By 2015, GFDRR will conduct studies in a minimum of five countries. The studies will test the causal link between the outputs GFDRR has generated, changes in behavior, reforms and investment (outcomes) and impact of these outcomes on the resilience of people.

Wherever possible these evaluations will build upon existing efforts to evaluate and test theories of change in GFDRR assisted projects (see Box 8).

BOX 8:

Examples of GFDRR evaluation-orientated initiatives at the country level

Evaluation of Risk Assessment: A collaboration between GFDRR, the World Bank and DFID to test and catalyze the uptake of innovative risk identification and financing tools in low-income and fragile states. The project takes Pakistan as a pilot study, where it supports the development of data gathering, risk modeling and risk financing capacity. The project will test assumptions at each step in relation to the behavioral and institutional changes required within the context of Pakistan to achieve greater resilience. The lessons learned will inform scale-up plans for a minimum of five low income countries16 and the analytical investment will provide an important input for the implementation and further development of the GFDRR evaluation strategy.

15

A more detailed discussion on the approach and methodology underpinning the evaluation strategy outlined here will be presented in a separate document to the 14th Consultative Group Meeting (May 2013).

16

Indian Ocean Islands, Togo, Kyrgyz Republic, Laos, Nepal, Peru.

Evaluation of Financial Protection: GFDRR proposes to evaluate both the efficiency and effectiveness of sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance interventions to close the most pressing evidence gaps in the evaluation of sovereign level disaster risk financing instruments. Over a two year period this project aims to develop a comprehensive M&E toolkit for DRFI for use by international agencies, donors, and recipient countries.

A strong emphasis on public-private exchange on DRFI will be a key aspect of this work.

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Measuring Impact on Disaster Losses and Increased Resilience At the global level, GFDRR will contribute to global efforts to measure and understand longer term trends in disaster losses and increased resilience. Better management of disaster risks should lead to a slowing of the upward trend in human and economic losses from disasters. This, however, is a complex and long-term point to prove. Methodological options for this are under investigation, most notably in the context of the post-2015 development agenda.

Current thinking suggests that indicators on mortality and economic impact of disasters could include direct economic losses as a percentage of GDP combining actual and modeled data, or number of people affected as a proportion of people exposed.17 Such measures could be supported by complementary measures of the resilience of systems, physical assets and people, to which GFDRR is well positioned to contribute. Examples of such possible indicators include the percentage of buildings complying with codes and standards, regulations against settling and building on high risk land, or the percentage coverage of early warning systems.

17

Drawn from a draft paper prepared for the ‘DRR and the Post-2015 Development Agenda – Global Thematic Consultation, 19-20 February 2013, Jakarta, Indonesia.

Mitchell, T. Jones, L. Lovell, E. and Comba, E. Overseas Development Institute: London, UK.

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Reporting GFDRR will report on results under an annual monitoring and evaluation cycle (Figure 2). Through this cycle, donors and other stakeholders will receive timely infomration on the performance and impact of the program. Moreover, as GFDRR develops new standards in the M&E of DRM, the Secretariat will work with donors and partners to continue to develop systems and approaches to measuring and understanding impact. GFDRR is committed to improving analysis and communication of how resilience is built. This will include defining and testing objective criteria against which to measure levels of capacity, reform and investment, which will in turn inform program stakeholders when a country is sufficiently resilient to graduate out of GFDRR’s program of support.

Figure 2: Annual monitoring and evaluation cycle

CG SPRING - New 3-year work plan presented - Impact study presented

- Review of work plan conducted - Impact study finalized

- Work Plan implementation and monitoring - Impact Study conducted

CG AUTUMN - Annual Report on work plan implementation - Preliminary results of impact study

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

resource requirements The following summarizes GFDRR’s indicative resource requirements to carry out the implementation of the proposed FY2014–2016 Work Plan. This summary presents four aspects: (i) indicative cost of the work plan; (ii) available resources; (iii) Work Plan resource requirements; and (iv) prioritization of resources.

The Work Plan will require a projected envelope of US$260 million. This figure is derived from identified proposed projects in 49 countries and projected needs over the three-year period. The indicative distribution of Work Plan activities by pillar is detailed in Table 15 and Figure 3, and by region in Table 16 and Figure 4.

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GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

Table 15: Projected distribution of Work Plan expenditures by pillar and fiscal year (US$ million)

Pillar

FY14

FY15

FY16

Total

Risk Identification

18.5

18.7

20.0

57.2

Risk Reduction

25.1

30.1

36.9

92.1

Preparedness

13.3

15.1

17.7

46.1

Financial Protection

6.2

7.6

9.5

23.4

Resilient Recovery

9.9

11.2

13.2

34.2

Outreach and Partnership

2.0

2.3

2.7

7.0

Total

75.0

85.0

100.0

260.0

Figure 3: Projected distribution of Work Plan expenditures by pillar (FY14-16)

7.0 Outreach and Partnership Resilient Recovery 34.2 57.2 Risk Identification

Financial Protection 23.4

US$ millions FY 14-16

Preparedness 46.1

92.1 Risk Reduction

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Table 16: Projected distribution of Work Plan expenditures by region and fiscal year (US$ million)

FY14

FY15

FY16

Total

AFR- Sub Saharan Africa

31.0

35.2

41.4

73.0

EAP- East Asia and the Pacific

16.7

18.9

22.2

39.2

ECA- Europe and Central Asia

3.5

4.0

4.7

8.3

LCR- Latin America and the Carribbean

7.9

9.0

10.6

18.6

MNA- Middle East and North Africa

3.1

3.5

4.1

7.3

SAR- South Asia

10.8

12.2

14.3

25.3

Outreach and Partnership

2.0

2.3

2.7

7.0

Total

75.0

85.0

100.00

260.00

Figure 4: Projected distribution of Work Plan expenditures by region (FY14-16)

7.0 Outreach and Partnership 25.3 SAR

7.3 MNA 18.6 LCR

73.0 AFR

US$ millions FY 14-16

8.3 ECA

39.2 EAP

47

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

Available resources During FY2007-2013, GFDRR received US$229 million in net contributions from 21 donors.18 Of these contributions received, GFDRR has committed US$192 million (84 percent) in activities. This leaves a balance of US$37 million (MDTF-T2 US$1.6 million, SDTFT2 US$2.1 million, T3 US$5 million, and ACP-EU US$28.3 million).19 An additional US$30 million in net contributions is scheduled to be received in FY20142016. As of April 2013, the balance available for implementation of this Work Plan is therefore US$67 million. Figure 5 shows total net contributions, commitments, and the available balance.

Figure 5: Cumulative net contributions, commitments, and available balance $300,000,000

$258,887,602

$192,134,068 $150,000,000

$66,753,535

ACP-EU T3 T2-SDTF T2-MDTF

$0 Net contributions (FY07-15)

Net commiments (FY07-13)

Net balance (F07-15)

Work Plan Resource Requirements The indicative envelope for the work plan of US$260 million accounted against US$67 million in available resources yields a funding gap of US$193 million. Of the US$67 million available balance, US$60 million will be available in FY2014, and US$7 million in FY2015.

Closing the funding gap would therefore involve an annual increase in new contributions, from an estimate of US$15 million in FY2014, to US$78.3 million in FY2015, and US$100 million in FY2016, as shown in Figure 6.

18

The US$229 net contributions received FY07-13 are contributions effectively paid by donors before April 2013, reduced from deductions for administration fees and provision for program administration, as per World Bank’s trust fund administration policies.

Figure 6: Work Plan resource requirements (FY14–16) $100,000,000

$100,000,000

$85,000,000

19

MDTF-T2: Track-II of the Multi-Donor Trust Fund SDTF-T2: Track-II of the Single-Donor Trust Funds from Australia, Japan and Spain.

T3: Track-III (MDTF and SDTF contributions) ACP-EU: EU-funded SDTF for countries of the AfricaCaribbean-Pacific group of States.

$75,000,000 15,000,000

$50,000,000

78,000,000

100,000,000

Funding gap ACP-EU

42,000,000

T3 T2-SDTF T2-MDTF $0,000,000

11,100,000

FY14

FY15

FY16

48

MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Prioritization of Resources (FY14-16) This Work Plan proposes activities in 49 disaster prone countries (Annex II). These countries have been categorized following GFDRR’s funding eligibility criteria: (1) core priority countries financed primarily through the multi-donor trust fund, (2) non-core countries prioritized by specific donors and financed primarily through single donor trust funds, and (3) other countries financed with flexible funds or special initiatives (including the ACP-EU program). Building upon these categories, funding requirements are detailed per country category in Figure 7 below.

Figure 7: Distribution of Work Plan expenditures against country eligibility criteria and resulting funding gaps by category (FY14-16)

33

41%

54 73

US$ million FY14–16

30

27% 32%

66 3

Funds available for priority countries Funding gap for priority countries Funds available for donor noncore countries Funding gap for donor noncore countries Funds available for other countries Funding gap for other countries

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

annexes I-III

49

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

I. Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Inputs

Outputs a. People in disaster prone countries have access to comprehensive information about physical and societal exposure to disaster risk b. National agencies/cities are equipped with improved means to assess and communicate disaster risks

- Financial commitments from donors are sufficient and contributed in a timely manner - grants are managed effectively, partners maintain their commitments and capacity, and country context (including political environment) remains operationally viable

PILLAR 1

Assumptions:

Indicators:

# countries with institutional capacity developed in data collection, sharing and management; hazard and exposure modeling; mapping; risk assessment; and risk communication # countries with new solutions in risk assessment; open-source software; open data practices; remote sensing; and institution building in place

- national and/or city level resources for maintenance and generation of risk information are secured - risk information is effectively communitcated to policy makers - policy makers are responsive to risk information

# countries provided with new analytical and technical products and tools to support risk assessment; open-source software; data platforms; and remote sensing

- global commitments to DRM are maintained and developed, particularly in the post-2015 landscape

Disaster prone countries and their development partners are better able to make decisions on where and how to reduce disaster risks in society

PILLAR 2

Indicators:

# countries with institutional capacity developed in risk reduction policy; land-use planning; building standards; strategy; and planning and investment # countries with new solutions in risk reduction policy; land-use planning; building standards; strategy; and planning and investment in place # countries provided with new policy analysis; sector specific norms; guidelines and tools # countries where GFDRR helped leverage new large-scale investments in structural or non-structural risk reduction National and local agencies and CSOs are strengthened to provide better early warning of disasters and respond more effectively when they occur

PILLAR 3

Indicators:

# countries with institutional capacity developed in the use of disaster risk information for early warning; search and rescue; and contingency planning # countries with new solutions in emergency management; public awareness; early warning; and service delivery of national hydromet services in place # countries provided with new policy analysis; hydromet feasibility studies; and operational guidelines

Assumptions: - increased understanding of physical risk leads to changes in mindsets amongst decision makers - lead technical agencies on disaster risks are able to convene and influence other line ministries - informed decision making leads to an increase in, and effective use of, resources for risk reduction - conflicting market forces are surmountable with new evidence and policies on risks - government policies do not conflict in incentivizing/preventing risky behavior, for example on land use or safety nets Assumptions: - national agencies are appropriately resourced and mandated to implement their improved capacity - preparedness and early warning infrastructure is adequately maintained - investment in early warning adopts an end-to-end philosophy, with a focus on getting the message to those at risk

# countries where GFDRR helped leverage new large-scale investments in preparedness or early warning

PILLAR 4

a. Disaster prone countries have better access to comprehensive information on their financial exposure to disaster risks b. National agencies/cities are equipped with improved means to assess and manage fiscal and other financial risks Indicators:

# countries with institutional capacity developed in sovereign disaster risk financing; property catastrophe risk insurance; agricultural insurance; and disaster microinsurance # countries with new solutions in sovereign disaster risk financing; property catastrophe risk insurance; agricultural insurance; and disaster microinsurance in place # countries provided with new policy analysis; strategy reviews; feasibility studies; fiscal risk assessments; and financial analysis tools # countries where GFDRR helped leverage new contingent credit or risk financing instruments Disaster affected countries have enhanced capacity and improved plans for financing and implementing resilient recovery Indicators:

PILLAR 5

GFDRR provides grants to generate knowledge, build capacity and implement DRM reforms and investment.

Assumptions: - Consensus and trust on risk information is built

# countries with institutional capacity developed in the conduct of recovery assessments; development and institutionalization of good practice recovery planning; and implementation of standards in government systems # post disaster countries supported in conducting post disaster assessments; developing post disaster recovery frameworks # post disaster countries where GFDRR helped leverage large scale investment in resilient recovery and risk reduction

GFDRR Accountability

Assumptions: - An increased understanding of financial risk leads to changes in minsets among finance ministers (that fiscal risk of disasters is relatively unimportant or unmanageable) - private sector is willing to engage in the development of catastrophe risk insurance - legislative or regulatory environments do not prohibit the development of risk financing solutions - counter-incentives such as complacency due to expected international humanitarian aid do not outweigh the perceived benefits for partner countries Assumptions: - governments buy into and adopt recommendations and analysis presented in post-disaster assessments - when disaster strikes, governments are able and willing to apply knowledge, capacity and systems developed during ‘peace time’ despite the high political and operational pressures a disaster event brings

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

Outcomes

Impact

Improved identification and understanding of disaster risks Indicators: # national / city agencies that demonstrate improved generation or communication of disaster risk information # countries / cities that demonstrate increased application of risk information in public policy and investment planning

Avoided creation of new risks and reduced existing risks in society Indicators: # schools and other public infrastructure made safer through retrofitting or resilient construction # countries / cities implementing new or revised policies to address disaster risk $ amount of investment made in risk reduction measures that GFDRR has helped leverage

Improved warning and management of disasters at national, local and community level Indicators: # countries demonstrating increased accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts and early warning

Assumptions: - people respond rationally to the information they receive on risk - improvements in the resilience of the physical environment are Assumptions: maintained through - people respond appropriate, sustained rationally to the investment information they - otherreceive shockson dorisk; not undermine invest- improvements mentsininthe resilience to resilience disasters of the physical environment are maintained through appropriate, sustained investment; - other shocks do not undermine investments in resilience to disasters

% countries demonstrating improved performance of national / city agencies in the quality and timeliness of emergency response

Increased financial resilience of governments and private sector Indicators: # countries with improved financial protection against disasters through reserves, contingency mechanisms or risk transfer # countries adopting or improving budgetary mechanisms to appropriate and execute public resources in case of disasters # countries with more developed property catastrophe risk insurance markets

Indicators: # vulnerable people better protected by risk reduction measures # people taking identifiable action to reduce risks in their community

Indicators: # people benefitting from the implementation of financial protection strategies at the regional, national or subnational level % population insured against catastrophe risk to their property

Indicators:

# disasteraffected people achieving restored livelihoods through resilient recovery efforts

Shared Accountability

Indicator:: Reduction in people affected from disasters

# population of vulnerable countries demonstrating an understanding of what to do in the event of a disaster to save their life and their assets

Indicators:

$ amount of financing for resilient recovery that GFDRR has helped leverage through post-disaster assessments and other assistance

- variability in hazards, exposure and vulnerability (particularly as they relate to the climate, population growth, urbanization and environmental degredation) do not outpace incremental improvements in resilience

Indicators:

Quicker more resilient recovery

# disaster affected countries using enhanced capacity and improved planning to implement resilient recovery and risk reduction programs

Assumptions:

A world where resilient societies manage and adapt to emerging disaster risks and the human and economic impacts of disasters are reduced

Increased resilience of people to natural hazards

Indicator: Reduction in economic losses from disasters

51

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

53

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

III. Operational Framework for GFDRR Pillar 1: Risk Identification Risk identification is the foundation of much of GFDRR’s work to sensitize authorities and guide risk reduction, preparedness and risk financing work. GFDRR grants under this pillar support partner governments and local experts in the development of detailed national, sub-national or sector specific risk assessments - including hazard, exposure and vulnerability input datasets. These are oriented towards the development of DRM strategies. GFDRR is also actively promoting open systems for creating, sharing, and using disaster risk information (including information related to climate change). This will ensure that a wide range of actors gain access to information, so that they can participate in the challenge of building resilience to disasters.

Pillar 2: Risk Reduction The rapid and unplanned growth of population and assets in at-risk areas is the primary driver of increasing disaster losses. Migration to coastal areas and the expansion of cities in flood plains and river deltas – when combined with insufficient application of building standards and land use plans – are responsible for much of this upward trend. GFDRR grants under this pillar support countries at two levels: (i) by identifying and supporting strategies to avoid the creation of new risks, for example through improved territorial planning or building standards, and (ii) by assisting countries to address existing risks through the development and implementation of risk reduction plans and investment programs.

Pillar 3: Preparedness An effective way for countries to reduce disaster losses is to maintain alert systems that provide early warning of a natural hazard. Public technical bodies like hydrological and meteorological (hydromet) services and river management agencies play a particularly important role here, but are often poorly resourced. Being prepared also requires plans and resources in place for rapid response by local or national emergency management agencies, although systems are often below par. Grants under this pillar focus on improving capacity to anticipate, prepare and respond. Partnership is key, and GFDRR works with the World Meteorological Organization, for example, to strengthen hydromet and UNDP and the IFRC to help elevate the status, capacity and mandate of national disaster management agencies.

Pillar 4: Risk Financing Disaster risk financing helps governments, businesses and individuals deal with the financial and economic consequences of disasters. This provides a unique opportunity to engage Ministries of Finance on an agenda that is often overlooked. It also provides an opportunity to strengthen the private sector’s role in financing DRM and the consequences of disasters. GFDRR grants under this pillar work on both fronts. At the national government level, GFDRR supports the development and implementation of disaster risk financing strategies to increase response capacity in the aftermath of a disaster, while protecting the government’s long-term fiscal balance. GFDRR also helps cultivate the development of

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

55

competitive property catastrophe risk insurance markets to increase penetration among homeowners and small and medium enterprises; agricultural insurance programs for farmers, herders, and agricultural finance institutions; and disaster micro-insurance for low-income populations.

Pillar 5: Resilient Recovery GFDRR has responded to calls for a more coordinated system of international recovery assistance to disaster-affected countries. At the forefront of this effort is assistance provided to countries on reliable and internationally accepted damage, loss and needs assessment methods following major disaster events.20 GFDRR also supports countries by providing solutions for better post-disaster recovery planning and financing, more robust policy and institutional frameworks for resilient recovery, and by developing national capacities to prepare and conduct recovery programs that set the basis for comprehensive risk reduction measures. Complementing these efforts is a significant focus on the development and dissemination of knowledge on disaster recovery.

The GFDRR secretariat hosts a series of core thematic programs of support to support the design and implementation of GFDRR grants and the broader activities of the DRM community (Box 9).

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

BOX 9:

Supporting Implementation through core thematic programs

GFDRR has identified a particular need for focused technical support in a series of core technical areas. In order to assure the quality of GFDRR grants in these fields, provide technical support to implementing partners and lead capacity development and knowledge management, the Secretariat hosts a number of cross-regional teams to lead this work.

GFDRR Labs: The GFDRR Labs team promotes and supports the use of science, technology and innovation to empower decision makers to understand and act on disaster risks. Key innovations include open data practices and simple-to-use decision making tools (see also Box 2). The team specializes in taking complex risk information and turning it into easy to understand platforms through, for example, three-dimensional colorcoed models of cities that point at where to invest. Partnering with governments, international organizations, and civil society groups, this thematic initiative supports all pillars of action through technical assistance and capacity development, tool and product development, global advocacy and facilitation of knowledge exchange.

This includes open systems and tools for creating, sharing, communicating and using disaster risk and climate change information before and after disasters.

Hydromet: GFDRR launched the Hydromet thematic group in 2011. Based on practical knowledge from modernizing national hydromet services, the initiative provides analytical, advisory and implementation support to project managers and government partners. As part of this program, GFDRR has established partnerships with the World Meteorological Organization, and multiple meteorological agencies supporting work in close to 20 countries where national services are very weak and investment plans are currently non-existent.

Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance (DRFI): The GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program works to increase the financial resilience of governments, businesses and households against the economic burden of disasters. The DRFI Program has already pushed many boundaries in public-private partnership in this field, and in changing mindsets within ministries of finance on the development benefits of financial protection against disasters. This presents a crucial entry point to elevate the risk management within Ministries of Finance and planning which control public investments.

Safer Schools: The Safer Schools Program, a proposed joint thematic initiative by GFDRR and donor partners, in close cooperation with UNISDR, UNICEF and others, aims to deliver solutions to protect children, teachers and local communities. The initiative is currently being designed as a global knowledge, advisory and technical assistance program to develop and implement a comprehensive school safety program.

Resilient Cities: GFDRR and the Urban Unit in the World Bank are currently exploring strengthened cooperation through a proposed Resilient Cities thematic program, which may focus on “soft” and “hard” measures, such as land use and urban planning, community awareness and preparedness.

20

GFDRR partners with the World Bank, United Nations, European Union and other donors under a Memorandum of Understanding for postdisaster assessments.

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN 2014-2016

57

Abbreviations

AfDB

African Development Bank

ADB

Asian Development Bank

ASEAN

Association of Southeast Asian Nations

CAPRA

Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment

CAT DDO

Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option

CCRIF

Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility

CG

Consultative Group

CIF

Climate Investment Funds

CSO

Civil Society Organization

DAT

Disaster Aid Tracking

DFID

UK Department for International Development

DRFI

Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance

DRM

Disaster Risk Management

EAP

East Asia Pacific

EU

European Union

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization

GAR

Global Assessment Report

GFDRR

Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery

GIS

Geographic Information System

IFRC

International Federation of Red Cross and Crescent Societies

ILO

International Labour Organization

InaSAFE

Indonesia Scenario Assessment for Emergencies

LAC

Latin America and Caribbean

MIGA

Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency

OECD–DAC

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development–Development Assistance Committee

Open DRI

Open Data for Resilience Initiative

PDNA

Post Disaster Need Assessment

PICs

Pacific Island Countries

SOPAC

Secretariat of the Pacific, Applied Geoscience and Technology Division

UNDP

United Nations Development Programme

UNICEF

United Nations Children’s Fund

UNISDR

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

UR

Understanding Risk

WFP

World Food Program

WMO

World Meteorological Organization

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MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Draft Amendments to Charter

DRAFT AMENDMENTS TO CHARTER GFDRR 14TH CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETING

MAY 16-17, 2013

Draft Amendments to GFDRR Partnership Charter 14th CG Meeting, May 16-17, 2013 Exeter, UK Background At its 13th Meeting, the Consultative Group (CG) resolved that “the Results Management Council (RMC) is not reconstituted, and that its tasks and responsibilities be met by commissioning experts, when needed, to carry out studies on topics of interest to the CG�. This decision of the Consultative Group requires an amendment to the Charter to delete references to the RMC. No amendment to the Charter is required for giving effect to the CG decision for discharging the tasks and responsibilities of the RMC by commissioning experts as necessary, in terms of the extant provisions of Paragraph 25 (i) of the Charter.

The Consultative Group is requested to affirmatively accept the draft amendments to the Charter as detailed hereinafter, in terms of provisions of the Charter contained in Paragraph 25 (j) read with Paragraph 29, to give effect to its decisions taken in the 13th Meeting in November 2012.

Proposed Amendments to the GFDRR Partnership Charter 1. Paragraph 23.

Delete reference to RMC in para 23, as follows: [OLD] 23. The governance and organizational structure of the GFDRR include a Consultative Group, a Results Management Council, and a Secretariat.

[NEW] 23. The governance and organizational structure of the GFDRR include a Consultative Group and a Secretariat.

2. Paragraph 24.

The members of the Consultative Group are: Delete serial (d) which reads: (d) The Chair of the Results Management Council 3. Paragraph 25.

Delete reference to RMC in serial (h) as follows: [OLD]

DRAFT AMENDMENTS TO CHARTER GFDRR 14TH CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETING

MAY 16-17, 2013

Nominating members to the Results Management Council and such other bodies that the Consultative Group may determine as a platform to successfully implement the GFDRR mission; [NEW] Nominating members to such bodies that the Consultative Group may determine as a platform to successfully implement the GFDRR mission; 4. Paragraph 27.

Delete last sentence referencing RMC which reads: […] The Chair of the Consultative Group shall also be responsible for approving a plan for staggered rotations of the Results Management Council.

[OLD] 27. The Chair of the Consultative Group is the World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development.

The Chair calls and presides over the meetings of the Consultative Group. The Chair, upon consultation with the rest of the Consultative Group members, may call special meetings of the Consultative Group or commission specific studies to inform policy decisions of the Consultative Group. The Chair may, in consultation with the rest of the Consultative Group members designate specific partners including non-Consultative Group members of the GFDRR to undertake specific activities designed to reinforce the global, regional, or country-specific results of the activities funded under the GFDRR. The Chair of the Consultative Group shall also be responsible for approving a plan for staggered rotations of the Results Management Council.

[NEW] 27. The Chair of the Consultative Group is the World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development.

The Chair calls and presides over the meetings of the Consultative Group. The Chair, upon consultation with the rest of the Consultative Group members, may call special meetings of the Consultative Group or commission specific studies to inform policy decisions of the Consultative Group. The Chair may, in consultation with the rest of the Consultative Group members designate specific partners including non-Consultative Group members of the GFDRR to undertake specific activities designed to reinforce the global, regional, or country-specific results of the activities funded under the GFDRR. 5. Paragraph 30-33.

Delete Section on Results Management Council - Paras 31-33, which reads: Results Management Council 30. To ensure the quality, relevance and impact of the GFDRR-financed activities, GFDRR is supported by the Results Management Council (RMC).

31. (a) The members of the Results Management Council are:

DRAFT AMENDMENTS TO CHARTER GFDRR 14TH CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETING

(i)

MAY 16-17, 2013

A Director of the World Bank nominated by Vice President of Sustainable Development Network;

(ii) The Director of the ISDR Secretariat; (iii) The Program Manager of the GFDRR Secretariat; (iv) Five (5) Representatives of inter-governmental organizations, nongovernmental organizations, community based organizations, regional development banks, private sector entities, charities, foundations, and/or trusts, associations of industries, academic and research institutions, and professional networks appointed by the Chair and Co-Chair of the Consultative Group in consultation with its members for a period of two [2] years on a staggered rotation basis; (v) Five (5) prominent experts, appointed by the Chair and Co-Chair of the Consultative Group in consultation with its members for a period of two [2] years on a staggered rotation basis, from regions or areas of expertise according to established or accepted disaster reduction conventions provided under the ISDR system including but not limited to: (1) Geological hazards, (2) Weather-related hazards, (3) Environmental risks, (4) Advanced research in any aspect of disaster reduction, (5) Risk financing instruments, (6) Public policy specialist/Economist in disaster reduction, (7) Community-based disaster mitigation, (8) Institutional capacity building, and (9) Knowledge management. (b) Members of the Results Management Council (RMC) will select a chair among them to preside over the meetings. Among other things, the Chair of the Results Management Council will have responsibility for confirming the plan for staggered rotations of its members under (a) (iv) and (v) above with the Chair of the Consultative Group.

32. The Results Management Council’s responsibilities include: (a) Providing technical guidance to all GFDRR-funded activities and advising the GFDRR Secretariat and the Consultative Group in establishing a results framework for disaster risk reduction (b) Reviewing and commenting on the GFDRR strategy as reflected in draft annual work programs prepared by the GFDRR Secretariat prior to its presentation to the Consultative Group; (c) Contributing to the evaluation of the impact of the GFDRR annual work program through ex-post evaluation of selected GFDRR activities; (d) Leveraging the engagement of local and regional authority networks in building capacity to sustain and replicate the work of the GFDRR; and (e) Other functions as may be requested by the GFDRR Secretariat (including upon recommendations from the Consultative Group) from time to time.

DRAFT AMENDMENTS TO CHARTER GFDRR 14TH CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETING

MAY 16-17, 2013

(i) 33. The Results Management Council’s findings and recommendations on their ex-post evaluation of selected activities are submitted to the GFDRR Secretariat who disseminates them to all Consultative Group members at least four weeks prior to the Consultative Group’s annual meeting. The Results Management Council meets in person at a minimum twice a year.

The Council operates by consensus and actions can be undertaken between meetings by tele/video conference or virtually (email) on a no-objection basis with a reasonable period of review. The Chair of the Results Management Council shall represent the group at the annual meeting of the Consultative Group.

6. Paragraph 35.

The GFDRR Secretariat focuses on the administration of the GFDRR program and delivery of GFDRR-funded activities. Key responsibilities include: Delete reference to RMC in serial (i): [OLD] (i) Providing secretariat services to the Consultative Group, the Results Management Council and fora that the Consultative Group may call for.

[NEW] (i) Providing secretariat services to the Consultative Group and fora that the Consultative Group may call for.

Background Documents

ENDORSED

STRATEGY

DECEMBER 2012

Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future A Strategy for the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery 2013-2015

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - STRATEGY 2013-2015

Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future

3

4

MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - STRATEGY 2013-2015

1

Introduction

2

Seven Problems to Solve

5

Operational Strategy 2013 – 2015

8

Vision

8

Mission

8

Theory of Change

8

Pillars of Action

10

Action Pillar One: Risk Identification

10

Action Pillar Two: Risk Reduction

10

Action Pillar Three: Preparedness

11

Action Pillar Four: Financial Protection

11

Action Pillar Five: Resilient Recovery

11

Monitoring and Evaluation

12

Implementing the Strategy

13

Outreach and Partnership Development

13

Operating Principles

16

2

MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE

Introduction This strategy for the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) – Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future– is set in a context of global consensus on the urgent need to build greater resilience to disasters. The 2012 International Monetary Fund-World Bank Group Annual Meetings, for example, called on national governments and development partners to accelerate efforts to pro-actively manage growing disaster risks.1Earlier in the year, the G20 meetings in Mexico in June 2012 called for action to counter rising costs from natural disasters,and the Busan High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in December 2011 (Box 1) demonstrated the importance of this issue for the aid agenda.2

1

Through the ‘Sendai Dialogue’ event and report launch; a GFDRRsupported event of the World Bank and the Government of Japan.

The resulting statement is available here: http:// www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/ node/1301. Government of Japan and World Bank, 2012. The Sendai Report: Managing Risks for a Resilient Future.

The World Bank, Washington, D.C.

2

Collective action under the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) has played an important role in securing this global momentum. In line with the GFDRR Partnership Charter, this strategy seeks to build on this opportunity and reaffirms GFDRR’s commitment to advance and scale up coordinated financial and technical assistance to disasterprone countries.3

This call was supported by a Government of Mexico/World Bank (2012) Report Improving the Assessment of Disaster Risks to Strengthen Financial Resilience; a compilation of DRM actions undertaken in G20 and other countries.

Government of Mexico and World Bank, 2012.

Improving the Assessment of Disaster Risks to Strengthen Financial Resilience. The World Bank, Washington, D.C.

3

http://www.gfdrr.org/ partnershipcharter2010

GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - STRATEGY 2013-2015

BOX 1:

3

Extract From the Busan Statement on Disaster Risk Management, 2011

We must ensure that development strategies and programmes prioritize the building of resilience among people and societies at risk from shocks, especially in highly vulnerable settings, such as small island developing states. Investing in resilience and risk reduction increases the value and sustainability of our development efforts. To this end: A: Developing

countries will lead in integrating resilience to shocks and measures for disaster management within their own policies and strategies.

B: Responding

to the needs articulated by developing countries, we will work together to invest in shock resistant infrastructure and social protection systems for at-risk communities.

In addition, we will increase the resources, planning, and skills for disaster management at the national and regional levels.

Source: Busan Partnership for Effective Development Co-operation, Fourth High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness, Busan, Republic Of Korea, 29 November to 1 December 2011, p. 8.

GFDRR has grown rapidly in response to increasing demand from developing countries.

The World Bank, the United Nations (UN), and donors launched GFDRR as a global partnership program of the ISDR system in 2006 after the World Conference for Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan to operationalize the vision articulated in the HFA 2005-15.

Since then, GFDRR has scaled up support to disaster prone countries–over 50 in total–with deeper programmatic engagement in 31 prioritized countries. This was possible only as a result of a substantial expansion in financial support provided by its donors. Annual commitments to activities made by the program have grown from US$6.4 million in FY2007 to US$46.7 million in FY2012, and this demand continues to grow.

An overarching lesson learned during this period is that reducing risks requires large-scale, sustained investment. GFDRR has been most successful where it has leveraged investment in resilient development by the World Bank and others, and it has achieved this through small-scale investment in knowledge, capacity and innovation. Within this context, the comparative advantage of GFDRR has become clearer and is two-fold: (i) the Facility’s position within the World Bank and (ii) the diverse nature of its partnership. This double-sided characteristic of the Facility requires careful navigation, but the opportunities it presents are significant.

The Facility’s position in the World Bank provides an opportunity to leverage the financial, political and human resources the institution holds. As the world’s leading development finance institution, the World Bank provides a platform for incorporating risk reduction into billions of dollars of development assistance in disaster-prone countries. The technical and financial assistance that GFDRR provides is integrated with these operations, and seeks to leverage investment that builds resilience. The institution is engaged in continuous dialogue with Ministries of Finance and Development Planning, which also means that small investments by GFDRR can stimulate the consideration of disaster risk at the highest levels of national policy making. In global policy, GFDRR is well positioned to leverage the influence of the institution in forums such as the World Bank Group’s Spring and Annual Meetings, the UN General Assembly, and the G20.

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The nature of the GFDRR partnership also provides a vehicle for international and interinstitutional cooperation. For example, through GFDRR, the World Bank has worked with regional agencies with which it tends not to engage, such as the Association of South Eastern Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Africa Caribbean Pacific (ACP) group of countries, and the African Union Commission (AUC). The composition and nature of the GFDRR partnership has expanded and diversified, and its role within the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) System has evolved. In particular, this is demonstrated by a number of low and middle income countries joining as members or observers.

GFDRR has also stepped up engagement with international organizations representing different groupings of countries, including for example the Islamic Development Bank.

Such outreach has brought together actors with different perspectives on the disaster risk management (DRM) agenda, including those representing both the humanitarian and sustainable development agendas.

Within this context, two main objectives guided the development of this strategy. These were: (1) to revise the existing strategy to take account of the evolution and impact of GFDRR during the period 2009-12; and (2) to streamline the existing strategy in order to more clearly articulate the vision, mission, pillars of action and guiding principles of GFDRR. This resulting document provides an operational framework for the GFDRR Secretariat for the period 2013 to 2015. It will facilitate engagement with partners and other stakeholders, with whom the GFDRR Secretariat has consulted extensively during development of the strategy.4 The strategy also draws from feedback received from its Consultative Group (CG) during the implementation of the previous strategy (2009-12) and a series of independent evaluations of the program.5 The implementation period coincides with many important global deliberations on the nature of international cooperation in disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation. Most notably, 2015 signals the end of the period covered by the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-15 (Box 2). Policy dialogue to shape a new global framework for building resilience to disasters has begun, but there is a long journey ahead. Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future should therefore be considered in this context as an interim strategy, and one that will position GFDRR to contribute knowledge and experience to the post-2015 dialogue.

BOX 2:

2015 – A Pivotal Year for Global Commitments to Building Disaster Resilience

2015 presents a significant opportunity to advance the DRM agenda as a development priority. Most notably, the Millennium Development Goals and the Hyogo Framework for Action reach their target dates in 2015, and discussions led by UNISDR are underway to map out what has been achieved and what remains still to be accomplished in a post-2015 agreement. On the climate change side, the Durban Platform agreed in December 2011 to negotiate a new climate change treaty by 2015, which will include measures to address disaster risk. The Sustainable Development Goals proposed in the run up to the Rio+20 Summit will also emerge in next few years, which provides additional opportunity for scale up and convergence of efforts to build resilience to disasters as an integral part of 4

Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future begins with an articulation of the central problems that this strategy seeks to address. This is followed by the operational strategy.

The vision, mission and pillars of action for GFDRR are set out, followed by a discussion of some of the key considerations for implementation.

The GFDRR Secretariat conducted virtual and face-to-face consultations during the period July – October 2012.

5 Including those conducted by Universalia in 2010, and DFID and AusAID in 2011.

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Seven Problems to Solve Disasters are an increasing threat to sustainable development. Evidence suggests that disaster risks are rising at a rate that significantly outstrips progress in building resilience.

Disasters exacerbate inequity because they impact vulnerable groups the most, which can in turn exacerbate fragility and conflict. In economic terms, losses from disasters have been on an upward trend: 2011 was the costliest year on record, with estimated losses of around US$380 billion.6 In low-income and small-island states the impact can be crippling: losses resulting from the Haiti earthquake in 2010 were equal to 120 percent of GDP, while a hurricane in Grenada in 2004 triggered losses equivalent to more than 200 percent. The relentless increase in disaster losses is likely to continue as a result of factors including unplanned urban growth, poor natural resource management, and climate change. Evidence suggests that rapid and unplanned urbanization is currently the single largest driver of disaster risk. In the longer term–without a major breakthrough in global negotiations–the world will likely exceed a +2°C climate change scenario before the end of this century. This would have major implications on global ecosystems, agriculture and water supply, sea level rise and storm surges (Box 3).

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BOX 3:

IPCC Assessment of the Future of Climate and Weather Extremes

The IPCC 2012 Special Report on Extreme Events presents the latest scientific consensus on theimpact of climate change on disaster risks.7 It states that “a changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events, and can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events.8 For example, the report anticipates that “it is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe” and that “a 1-in-20 year annual maximum daily precipitation amount is likely to become a 1-in-5 to 1-in-15 year event

7

IPCC, 2012. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., et al (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 8 IPCC, 2012: 7

Developing countries rarely have the tools or expertise to consider disaster risks through their development planning and investment. Governments rarely account for disaster losses, collect data, and assess risks systematically. In the coming decades, trillions of dollars will flow into new public investments in developing countries, much in hazard- prone areas. New buildings in growing cities need not be located in risky areas, or built in substandard ways. Countries need better territorial planning, sound environmental policies to maintain ecosystem buffers, appropriate building practices, and a culture of prevention and early warning.

DRM policies do not always translate into local action. One of the key findings of the midterm review of the implementation of the HFA, for example, was that implementation of the framework at the local level has been insufficient.9 Effective DRM strategies are often those that promote an appropriate division of labor and resources between all levels of government, but this is often difficult particularly in low-income countries. Civil society organizations (CSOs) are a critical partner in building local resilience, but are not routinely engaged in government-led programming.

Many developing countries lack the financial capacity to respond immediately after a disaster. Governments are expected not only to finance recovery and reconstruction expenses for public assets after a disaster but also to ensure quick recovery. Disasters whether large or smaller in scale (but recurring) can be a significant fiscal burden, and therefore a threat to economic development.10 Without financial protection mechanisms in place, governments often find themselves under pressure to draw funding away from basic public services or divert funds from other development programs.

The potential of partnership with the private sector in building resilient societies is not yet fully harnessed. Commercial companies dominate the construction sector and can influence the safe design, location and construction of buildings and other infrastructure, for example schools and hospitals. Partnerships between the public and private sector in this regard can be important, but are not common in developing countries. The insurance and reinsurance industries have built commercial value out of modeling, understanding and trading in disaster risk, and this is an area with significant untapped potential. Similarly, technical communities of mapping and GIS experts and social researchers hold expertise that is highly applicable to the management of disaster risks.

Support from the international community for DRM is critical, but donor financing is still driven by ex-post rather than ex-ante approaches. Analysis commissioned by GFDRR shows that between 1980 and 2009, about 2 percent (US$91.2 billion) of total development as-

9

www.unisdr.org/ files/18197_midterm.pdf 10 World Bank, 2012.

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sistance was allocated for disaster-related activities.11 Of this US$91.2 billion, the majority was spent on emergency response, while reconstruction accounted for one quarter. Disaster prevention and preparedness accounted for just 3.6 percent. This is a tiny figure given the scale of the threat disasters pose to development.

2% Total Development Assistance

3.6% Disaster Prevention and Preparedness

US$91.2 billion International Disaster

24.8% Reconstruction and Rehabilitation

69.9% Emergency Response

FIGURE 1: Disaster-related international financing (constant US$ 2009) with average percentage of disaster

related financing going to emergency response, reconstruction, and prevention and preparedness.

The Sendai Report: Managing Risks for a Resilient Future, Government of Japan / World Bank 2012 Source: Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) Disaster Aid Tracking Database. Note: Figures are constant US$ 2009. Remaining 1.7 percent (US$1.5 billion) of the total disaster-related assistance is classified under ‘Emergency Assistance and Reconstruction, combinations of purposes’ category and is not included in the figure above.

11

gfdrr.aiddata.org

The World Bank and other development finance institutions are only part-way on the journey towards institutionalizing DRM in its policies and operations. An institutional shift has begun in the World Bank, for example, away from the tendency to treat disasters as interruptions in development and towards seeing them as risks to be managed as part of development. According to a new report by the World Bank’s Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), there has been both a quantitative and a qualitative improvement in the way the World Bank’s Country Assistance Strategies (CASs) have treated disaster risk issues, and a clear shift toward risk reduction in Bank-supported investment projects since 2006, when GFDRR was established.12 However, the report also highlights that there is more to be done to systematically integrate an assessment of risks into the design and implementation of World Bank-financed projects.

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Operational Strategy 2013–2015 Vision A world where resilient societies manage and adapt to emerging disaster risks and the human and economic impacts of disasters are reduced.

Mission In line with the GFDRR Charter, the mission of GFDRR is to protect lives by: (i) expanding and strengthening global and regional partnerships to coordinate and scale up technical and financial support for national DRM and climate change adaptation; (ii) contributing towards mainstreaming disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation as key elements of sustainable development; and (iii) assisting post-disaster countries in achieving efficient, effective, and resilient disaster recovery.

Theory of Change The Strategy is driven by the central hypothesis that disaster risk is inherent to development, but that action can be taken to build resilience. Research shows that the biggest driver of disaster risk globally is the growth of population and assets in hazard prone areas. Migration to coastal areas and the expansion of cities in flood plains, coupled with inappropriate building practices, are among the main reasons for the recent increase in disaster losses.

Theory of Change suggests that by acting firmly and immediately to reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience, countries can protect lives and assets from known risks. At the same

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time, countries can also control the creation of new risks if they implement the right policies and interventions.

DRM should therefore be integrated – or ‘mainstreamed’ – into all aspects of development, and the outcomes systematically evaluated. Arresting the current trend of rising disaster risk – which is outpacing gains in resilience – will require a major shift in development planning and practice, including in the quality of the evidence to support such changes. This includes large-scale investment in hard measures, like resilient infrastructure and the physical protection of cities. It will also require increased investment in soft measures like early warning, land use planning, institution building and the application of new technologies and innovative solutions.

GFDRR’s comparative advantage within the ISDR partnership is that it is positioned to influence policy making and investment in these measures at the required scale. During 2013-15, GFDRR will seek to leverage its partners, including the World Bank and national governments to achieve the scope of policy change and scale of investment required. GFDRR will also continue to develop and test innovative approaches to disaster risk reduction to provide proven and potentially transformative solutions to the challenge of DRM.

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Pillars of Action Five pillars of action provide the operational framework for this strategy. These are: (i) risk identification; (ii) risk reduction; (iii) preparedness; (iv) financial protection; and (v) resilient reconstruction. This framework is intended to provide greater clarity and specificity on how GFDRR engages resources, while also being broad enough to allow for demanddriven implementation. The pillars of action build on what GFDRR has learned about the nature of ‘DRM’ and, within that context, where GFDRR is best placed to focus efforts.

Action Pillar One: Risk Identification Outcome: Improved identification and understanding of disaster risks through building capacity for assessment and analysis.

Understanding hazards, exposure, and vulnerability is the first step towards managing disaster risk. People living in disaster-prone areas have assessed the risks they face in various ways for centuries. Today, a range of new methods can help governments, communities and private actors assess risk. Quantifying and anticipating the potential impacts of natural hazards on society and the economy, disaster and climate risk assessments can inform decisions on how to manage risk, and facilitate access to development assistance.13 GFDRR will scale-up support for the application of risk assessment–including through risk modeling–in partner countries. In this context, GFDRR will partner with governments, international organizations, national technical bodies and civil society groups to develop capacity for open systems for creating, sharing, and using disaster risk and climate change information. This will ensure that a wide range of actors can participate in the challenge of building resilience to disasters. At the end of the strategy period, GFDRR aims to have initiated risk assessment programs in all of its priority countries.

Action Pillar Two: Risk Reduction Outcome: Avoided creation of new risks and reduced risks in society through greater disaster risk consideration in policy and investment.

Action can be taken to reduce risk through development policies and investment programs. Information about disaster risk (Action Pillar 1) can help guide investment to address existing risk, for example through the retrofitting of critical infrastructure or the establishment of social safety nets for vulnerable populations. It can also guide policies and programs that seek to avoid the creation of new risks, for example through improved territorial planning or building practice.

GFDRR will continue to work with partners to integrate disaster risk considerations into development policies and investment programs. To maximize impact, GFDRR will seek to leverage larger investments in risk reduction through it technical assistance programs. By the end of the strategy period, GFDRR aims to leverage large scale investment by government, development banks or other donors in a majority of its priority countries.

13 Risk screening, and climate risk screening in particular, is increasingly becoming a development assistance requirement. For example, achieving ‘climate resilient development’ is a special theme for IDA16, which includes a call for the screening of IDA operations for climate risks.

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Action Pillar Three: Preparedness Outcome: Improved capacity to manage crises through developing forecasting and disaster management capacities.

Adequate preparedness is essential, as risk can never be completely eliminated or reduced.

Preparedness through civil protection and early warning systems saves lives, protects livelihoods and is one of the most cost-effective ways to reduce the impact of disasters. Preparedness activities include enhancing capabilities at the local level to plan for and respond to disasters, and ensuring that local actors are linked in to early warning systems.

GFDRR will continue to expand a dedicated program of activities to develop national crisis management structures and early warning systems. GFDRR will assist in: (i) strengthening national and local coordination mechanisms; (ii) applying new information and communication technologies for emergency management, and; (iii) developing critical capacities, for example in civil protection systems. Work on early warning systems will be anchored in national technical institutions, and will include the modernization and upgrade of national hydrological and meteorological services. By 2015, GFDRR aims to have substantial impact on strengthening civil protection or early warning systems in a majority of its priority countries.

Action Pillar Four: Financial Protection Outcome: Increased financial resilience of governments, private sector and households through financial protection strategies.

Financial protection strategies can help protect governments, businesses and households from the economic burden of disasters. GFDRR will seek to increase support to programs that increase the financial capacity of the state to respond to emergencies, while protecting the fiscal balance. GFDRR will also support programs that help promote the development of insurance markets at a sovereign and household level, as well as social protection strategies for the most vulnerable. By the end of the strategy period, GFDRR will have developed financial vulnerability assessments and engaged in the development of financial protection strategies in a majority of its priority countries.

Action Pillar Five: Resilient Recovery Outcome: Quicker, more resilient recovery through support for reconstruction planning.

After a disaster, the reconstruction process is an important opportunity to promote resilience. The risk awareness of governments and affected populations is at its highest in the aftermath of disasters. This therefore presents an important opportunity to change policies and practices that do not appropriately consider risk. Disasters present an opportunity to promote risk management through resilient recovery and reconstruction planning.

GFDRR will continue to support disaster-affected countries to promote risk reduction in post-disaster situations. GFDRR will continue to support governments to plan for accelerated recovery, resilient reconstruction and long-term risk reduction. During the strategy period, GFDRR will seek to: (i) strengthen knowledge on damage assessment and resilient disaster recovery in 15 vulnerable countries and six regional organizations; (ii) continue to

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engage in Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNA) when requested by affected countries; and (iii) work with partners to develop a standard recovery framework toolkit to sustain national ownership and international development cooperation post-disaster.

Monitoring and Evaluation GFDRR will report on results against the logical framework. Annual work plans will draw as much as possible on baseline data and include the outcomes expected to be achieved from GFDRR activities in priority countries. GFDRR will report on progress against these expected outcomes. Information will be generated at three main levels: (i) input of financing and other resources; (ii) output of projects and programs; and (iii) contribution to outcomes on the ground. This information will be presented in GFDRR’s Annual Report. A key characteristic of the monitoring and evaluation process will be to establish a feedback loop to ensure lessons are applied to future programs and objective criteria on which grant financing decisions are based.

Defining the success of any risk management strategy relies on defining the characteristics of resilience in social, economic, infrastructural and environmental terms. A key challenge faced by the DRM community is defining success. During the Strategy period, GFDRR intends to work with research partners–including the World Bank’s Development Economics Vice-Presidency (DEC), UNISDR, and academic institutions–to develop new approaches to evaluating the impact of DRM interventions.14

14 DEC is leading the World Development Report 2014, which will focus on risk, uncertainty and crisis.

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Implementing the Strategy Outreach and Partnership Development The successful implementation of this strategy will depend on GFDRR’s capacity to support and empower its partners. GFDRR continues to diversify as a partnership and build on its inclusive governance model for international cooperation in DRM. As such, GFDRR is already providing new opportunities for cooperation and dialogue between developed, middle-income and developing countries, emerging donors, different geo-political groupings and international organizations. During the implementation of the Strategy, GFDRR seeks to strengthen its program with current partners, including the UNISDR, while engaging with new actors that have an important role to play in managing disaster risks, including multi-lateral financial agencies, civil society and the private sector.

GFDRR was established to strengthen the capacity of the ISDR system to achieve the goals of the HFA. Since 2007, the World Bank has provided grant funding to the UNISDR Secretariat through its Development Grant Facility (DGF) to ensure that it had the capacity to support and develop the ISDR system. While DGF funding will end in 2013, the partnership with UNISDR remains important for the implementation of this GFDRR strategy. UNISDR continues to shape global advocacy, drive implementation, and track progress in achieving the HFA goals. UNISDR is also mandated to lead and shape the consultations on a new global “Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience” post-2015. UNISDR coordinates DRM efforts across the UN system and with a wider array of stakeholders, including the private sector, civil society, academic institutions and Member States. GFDRR will continue to strengthen strategic cooperation with UNISDR with a focus on promoting and

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supporting the capacity of regional and international inter-governmental organizations for disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation and accelerated post-disaster recovery. GFDRR will feed into UNISDR’s global and regional advocacy and knowledge generation initiatives, drawing from its experience and practice in disaster-prone countries.

GFDRR will seek to develop a series of technical partnerships with UNISDR. These will include joint advocacy at the Global Platform in 2013, development of tools and advocacy to strengthen urban resilience and safe schools, promotion of early warning systems, and joint work with the OECD to track investments in disaster risk reduction (DRR). GFDRR will also strengthen its collaboration with the UNISDR Global Assessment Report (GAR) team around global risk assessment, and the development of national loss accounting databases, in particular for GAR 2015, and to support the understanding of risks in GFDRR partner countries.

GFDRR will also seek to strengthen partnerships with other UN agencies where strategic interests are aligned. A number of agencies have a significant role to play in building resilience to disasters, and further alignment and harmonization of international cooperation in this regard is needed. With UNDP, for example, there is opportunity to further exploit respective strengths in specific countries and more globally in risk identification, capacity development and PDNA. Under Action Pillar Five, GFDRR will work with UNDP to develop guidelines and training packages, and work jointly to better coordinate and align international cooperation in disaster reconstruction and recovery. GFDRR will deepen other strategic partnerships, for example with UNICEF on safe schools (action pillar two) and the World Meteorological Organization on hydro-meteorological services (Action Pillar Three).

With the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) there is opportunity to exploit synergies with the Nairobi Work Program and with the Cancun Framework of Adaptation.

BOX 4:

Working in Partnership – The Case of Weather and Climate Services

Through its Weather and Climate Services Program, GFDRR is building partnerships with WMO, leading global forecasting centers and national meteorological and hydro-meteorological services to improve delivery of weather, climate and hydrological products, forecasts and warnings in developing countries. GFDRR collaborates with WMO, alongside leading agencies including the US National Weather Service and American Meteorological Society, the UK Met Office, the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the China Meteorological Administration, and the Korean Meteorological Administration, to coordinate international efforts to develop capacity and modernize national weather and climate services. These efforts are aligned with global programs such as the WMO-led Global Frame-

GFDRR seeks to expand and develop its role as a global financing mechanism for building resilience to disasters. In line with principles of aid effectiveness, GFDRR seeks to develop and expand its role as a trustee of pooled funds in support of a common goal to build resilience to disasters and climate change. GFDRR will strive to provide flexible solutions for donors and other interested groups, and form partnerships in line with particular thematic or geographic interests of donors where appropriate. Models of good practice, such as the ACP-EU GFDRR partnership, will guide this. GFDRR will also continue to draw on the capacity of the World Bank as host institution and fiduciary agent in this regard.

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During the implementation of GPS 2009-12, GFDRR stakeholders (particularly its donors) have increasingly encouraged new forms of cooperation and partnership that transcend traditional institutional barriers. Central to this has been the development and endorsement of the GFDRR Civil Society Partnership Strategy (see Box 5). While this effort is in its infancy, the implementation of this strategy will provide an important opportunity to expand and deepen initial success in this area to extend direct outreach to more localized levels of engagement. This will include, wherever possible, engagement with local civil society and sourcing and development of local expertise.

BOX 5: The

GFDRR Civil Society Strategy

GFDRR’s civil society strategy was endorsed at the 12th meeting of the Consultative Group in April 2012. In preparation GFDRR consulted with over 300 CSOs in 11 countries ranging from international NGOs to grassroots groups. The strategy underscores the importance of engaging with civil society in the implementation of the Strategy, including on the need to support and facilitate policy dialogue between partner governments and civil society. During 2013-2015, GFDRR will: (a) perform a mapping of civil society engagement; (b) pilot engagements in three countries; (c) promote and foster public sector-civil society collaboration on disaster recovery, and; (d) document good practices on civil society engagement in DRM. Collaboration with UNISDR, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and groups such as those represented by the Global Network

GFDRR will continue to work with its partners in post-crisis recovery. The UN, World Bank Partnership Framework for Crisis and Post-Crisis Situations, and the tripartite EC, UN, World Bank Joint Statement on Post-Crisis Assessment and Recovery Planning, affirm the highest level of commitment to work together in supporting disaster affected countries.

GFDRR will continue to support the spirit and implementation of these agreements. Since its inception, GFDRR’s Sustainable Recovery Program has assisted over 45 disaster-hit countries by providing customized post-disaster assistance. This is a reflection of the international acceptance and much-enhanced country ownership of the PDNA as a standard tool for determining disaster impact and needs and more importantly, for multi-sector recovery planning, financing and leveraging of recovery investments.15 GFDRR will strive to build stronger partnerships with multilateral development banks (MDBs) and other financial institutions. With the World Bank, GFDRR will continue and deepen its close collaboration with the World Bank’s sector and regional teams. GFDRR will also seek to coordinate DRM policy and programming with other multilateral development banks through, for example, knowledge sharing and wider use of common tools and frameworks. It will draw on the capacity of the World Bank Institute to capture and share knowledge and experience.

16 IFC is the private sector arm of the World Bank Group.

GFDRR will engage with the private sector to document and disseminate innovative technologies for DRM that combine local know-how with global knowledge. This will include creating an enabling environment and expertise in the areas of risk assessment, which will be facilitated through expanded partnerships with research institutions, private companies and foundations. GFDRR will also expand its cooperation with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and benefit from its global presence, existing relationships with countries and expertise in working with the private sector.16

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Operating Principles GFDRR will continue and deepen engagement in priority countries.17 GFDRR will continue to allocate a majority of pooled funds to low-income, high-risk countries identified during the previous strategy period, in support of established, government-owned programs. The list of priority countries is subject to review, which will be guided by internal and external factors including internal progress reviews, political factors and the external donor environment.

To support implementation, GFDRR will scale-up or establish a series of central thematic programs of support. These themes will reflect those where GFDRR has identified a particular need to provide focused technical and financial support, with opportunity to build on existing work streams of key partners. Initial themes will include: (i) OpenDRI; (ii) safe schools and critical infrastructure; (iii) urban resilience; (iv) weather and climate services and early warning; and (v) disaster risk financing. These dedicated programs will act as an anchor for technical assistance, capacity development services, knowledge generation and advocacy in their respective fields.

A series of five principles will guide the implementation of the Strategy during the period 2013-15. Implementation will be: A. Demand Driven: In line with the GFDRR Charter, pooled funds will be used to respond to strategic opportunities or demands outside priority countries, particularly those with transformative or leveraging potential. In this context, GFDRR will seek to support project preparation for larger disaster risk reduction investments, and for designing a disaster risk reduction component to a pipeline or an ongoing development investment program in disaster-prone countries.

B. Leveraging and Transformative: GFDRR will prioritize those activities which present an opportunity for leveraging additional financing from the World Bank and others. Activities that may not lead directly to additional financing, but that introduce new ways of thinking and acting on risk among key individuals and institutions in disaster-prone countries will be considered ‘transformative’.

C. Results-oriented: A logical framework and associated work plan will provide the basis for monitoring and evaluating the implantation of the Strategy. GFDRR will continue to build and develop its Theory of Change, showing the linkages between the core problems being addressed, and how activities, outputs and outcomes contribute to achievement of the programme objectives in an overall results chain; and making explicit the assumptions and constraints underlying these linkages. GFDRR will strive to deliver timely results to the government and people it works with. It will report on results to donors in a transparent, regular and accountable manner.

D. Climate-smart: GFDRR will continue to assist countries in developing effective climate change adaptation strategies and capacity, with a focus on: (i) climate risk evaluations, and identification of sector-specific adaptive investment strategies, and; (ii) seed- financing and leveraging of World Bank investments in community adaptation actions across critical, climate vulnerable sectors.

17 GFDRR priority countries are selected based on the following criteria: (a) disaster risks and economic resilience–based on income classifications by the UN, the WB, IDA, the debt initiative for the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC), and the 2005 study entitled Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis; and (b) country ownership reflected in a government’s compliance with the HFA priorities and performance in ongoing GFDRR funded programs in the country.

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E. Gender-sensitive: GFDRR will support countries to incorporate gender dimensions in national DRM strategies and include programs targeted to women and children to ensure gender equity during recovery and reconstruction planning.

When a country demonstrates ownership and capacity for managing disaster risks GFDRR will withdraw its presence and redirect resources. Criteria for GFDRR to exit a given country would be based on one or more of these factors: (i) the achievement of stated objectives; (ii) the lack of interest in partner governments; (iii) financial restrictions on the part of GFDRR; and (iv) shifting geographic concerns of donors.