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Q3 2020, A SLOW QUARTER FOR NETFLIX’S GROWTH WEEK #43 ∙ OCTOBER 2020
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Q3 2020, A SLOW QUARTER FOR NETFLIX’S GROWTH #WEEK 43 ∙ OCTOBER 2020
NETFLIX NEW SUBSCRIBERS PROGRESS - 2012/2020
IN THEIR RECENTLY RELEASED Q3 2020 EARNINGS REPORT, NETFLIX ADDED 2.2M GLOBAL NET SUBSCRIBERS. THIS FIGURE IS JUST SHY OF THEIR ESTIMATED GAIN FOR THE QUARTER OF 2.5M.
(Millions)
15
10
5
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: Netflix
NETFLIX GLOBAL PAID SUBSCRIBER ADDITIONS 8.9
March 2019 June 2019
S&P Global Estimates (M) Actuals (M)
9.6
7.0 6.8
September 2019 December 2019
7.6
8.8
7.0
March 2020
15.8
7.5
June 2020
10.1
2.5 2.2
September 2020
NETFLIX REVEALED THAT IT HAD 73.08 MILLION PAYING STREAMING SUBSCRIBERS IN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA, MAKING NORTH AMERICA THE COMPANY’S LARGEST MARKET IN THE WORLD, FOLLOWED BY THE EMEA REGION.
5.0
2.7
Source: S&P - Netflix
NETFLIX SUBCRIBERS VS LEADING QUARTER DEMAND FOR ORIGINALS Subscribers
60%
10%
50%
9%
40%
8%
30% 20%
7% 6%
10%
5%
0%
4%
PRE-PANDEMIC Q1 GUIDANCE
-00%
Q2 2020
-20% -30%
3% 2% 1%
DEMAND -40% SHIFTED 1 QUARTER Q2 Q3 Q4 2018
Source: Parrot Analytics
Q1
Q2
Q3 2019
Q4
Q1
Q2 2020
Q3 2020 Q3
0%
% Change Subscribers
Tentpole Demand (Shifted)
COVID EFFECT
% Change Tentpole Demand
Global 2018 to 2020
A POSITIVE INDICATOR IS THE DECAY RATE OF CONTENT ON NETFLIX IS IMPROVING ACROSS REGIONS. IT SHOWS THAT DEMAND FOR CONTENT AVAILABLE ON NETFLIX IS HOLDING UP BETTER OVER TIME.
DECAY OF CONTENT AVAILABLE ON NETFLIX
APAC EMEA LATAM UCAN
0%
-10%
-20%
+5.4% -30%
+5.7% +7.3% +7.2%
-40%
-50%
-60%
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2017
2018
2019
2020
Decay Rate is average % decline in demand QoQ among all titles decreasing in demand. Source: Parrot Analytics