Taking the SSA Model to Analysis on Ningbo Economic Growth

Frontiers in Finance Volume 1, 2015 www.seipub.org/ff doi: 10.14355/ff.2015.01.006

Taking the SSA Model to Analysis on Ningbo Economic Growth GUO Yue1, 2, CAI Jinfeng3, ZHOU Jian4 1

School of Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing P.R.China, 210093

2

School of Economics and Management, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo P.R.China 315211

3

Jiujiang Vocational University, Jiujiang P.R. China, 332000

4

Jiangxi Vocational College of Finance & Economics, 332000

*1guoyue04@aliyun.com; 2619443970@qq.com; 3147331178@qq.com

Abstract The paper makes an empirical analysis of the influence of foreign direct investment (FDI), fixed investments and consumer consumption on Chinese economic growth which uses Shifi‐share Analysis (SSA) method in combination with Chinese statistic data from 2001 to 2011. The study shows that FDI, fixed asset investments and resident consumption all the three factors having promoted of China competition capability, such like Ningbo. Among them, fixed asset investments plays the most important role in driving the economy forward while resident consumption follows and FDI minimum impacts. So, Chinese government needs to do all the economic reform to move forward the economic structure adjustment and optimization and upgrading. At the same time, government should make full sense of function of macro‐control and monitor the market in an effective way as well as perfect law system in resident consumption. When ensuring market on work, government should protect consumers benefit to promote consumption and widen domestic demand.

Keywords SSA; FDI; Resident Consumption; Fixed Asset Investments; Economic Growth

Introduction Even though the world economic environment has changed, Chinese economy still has developed steadily from 2008 till now. At the same time, Chinese economy takes an active part in the process of economic integration, especially in the eastern coastal cities.

FIG. 1 NIINGBO ACTUAL USE OF FDI AFTER WTO TO 2011

As one of the first batch of coastal cities opened to the outside world, NingBo possesses the advantage of unique harbor and original good economic foundation. In consequence, it also has become the rich area of foreign direct investment. In 2001, NingBo brought in 806 foreign investment projects whose investment contracts totaling USD

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195.519 million, among this the Foreign capital actually was USD 280.929 million in 2011. Compared to 2001, the Foreign capital actually increased for USD$193.483 million, though the number of projects decreased by almost half. (As shown in the figure below) This shows that foreign direct investment in NingBo has been continually optimized which attaches importance to the quality more than the amount (as shown in Fig. 1).

Except for foreign direct investment, fixed asset investments in NingBo increased as well. According to the data in 2011, the whole city’s fixed asset investments had reached RMB 238.55 billion. Compared to RMB 47.028 billion in 2001, in ten years, it has increased about RMB200 billion (as shown in Fig. 2).

FIG. 2 NIINGBO FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT AFTER WTO TO 2011

In the meantime, with the support of government, NingBo strengthened and perfected the construction of shopping city, which greatly encouraged promoting economy using domestic demand and its consumption driven.

In 2011, resident consumption reached RMB 111.922 billion, three times as much as in 2001 (as shown in Fig. 3)

FIG. 3 NIINGBO RESIDENT CONSUMER AFTER WTO TO 2011

Crowding‐in of FDI, increase of fixed asset investments, promotion of resident consumption, all these push the economy of NingBo go ahead. In 2011, sum GDP in NingBo achieved the amount of RMB 605.924 billion, compared with that in 2001 whose sum GDP was RMB 131.268 billion, the really growth rate was more than 15%.

Since the implementation of export‐oriented model was put into practice, it opened a new channel for primary products and labor intention products entering into the international markets. Besides, it developed the new market of China productive resources and productivity. Moreover, it played an important role in promoting economic growth. This role was underlined particularly since the accession in 2001. After the 2008 economic crisis,

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China export sector was attached so that the export‐oriented economy growth pattern was unsustainable. As a consequence, economic growth from investment and consumption was on the new way appreciation of RMB policy and many other factors.

As one of the first batch of opening cities, NingBo possessed good economic basis of attracting foreign investments.

Meanwhile, the constant increase of recent fixed investments and the policy of promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand after economic crisis both made contributions to economic development. Nowadays, during the time of the Twelfth Five‐year Plan putting into effect, it can also benefit NingBo economic construction.

Therefore, this article chooses foreign direct investment and fixed asset investments as two aspects of investments, with part of the consumption‐‐‐resident consumption to discuss the influence of investment and consumption on economic growth.

Simultaneously, starting from the concrete situation in the region, we should also observe its deep‐seated problems and factors. This article mainly solves these several problems below: (1) Are there any other factors that impact on NingBo economic growth?

(2) How do the three factors (FDI/Fixed asset investment/resident consumption) take function?

(3) How to make full use of these three factors (FDI/Fixed asset investment/resident consumption) to pull and develop NingBo economy?

Solutions to the three questions have important implications for the model and orientation of NingBo economic growth.

Exportation, investment and consumption are the “troika” which stimulate and pull regional economic growth. On the basis of the literature review about the influence of investment and consumption on economic growth, we can see its research methods mainly include the coefficient correlation, the unit root test, time series stationary test and co‐integration test, construct the vector auto‐regression model or error correction model. In the combination of factors and variables, investment is rarely subdivided. Normally, the study period ranges from reform and opening up till now or after 2000. In the meantime, consultations of other researches on NingBo economic growth are also based on FDI, foreign import and export trade, logistics and other aspects. In order to export the import of FDI, fixed asset investments and resident consumption during NingBo economic growth since the WTO accession, this paper tries to use SSA analytic approach to analyze the relationship between GDP and those three variables, build models and make quantitative analysis through analyzing relevant data of NingBo GDP from 2001 to 2011 with FDI, fixed asset investments and resident consumption.

Literature Review Since 2001, China export‐oriented economy has made steady development after entered the WTO, especially in eastern coastal cities. NingBo, which is famous for not only with long history and culture but modern fashion and vigor, because of its predominant geological locations and good economic foundation. After the 2008 economic crisis which brought terrible beating to the global economy, coupled with the appreciation of the foreign exchange and other factors, the export‐oriented economic growth pattern was not sustainable.

Lheem and GUO (2004) considered that economic growth is the interacted result of internal force (constant human capital improvement and economic growth trend) and external (large amounts of foreign capital inflows) at the national level, which affirmed foreign capital stimulates economic growth. Meanwhile, there exists an integration between rapid economic growth and FDI, showing FDI and economic growth interacted mutually. As shown in Chen and Chen’s paper (2002), there is linear relationship between growth rate of FDI stock and Gross National Product (GNP), which confirmed this conclusion. That is to say, there is no doubt that FDI contributes to economic growth. However, for Zhejiang Province, being an important part of the whole Province’s investment capital, FDI not only has a short‐term demand function on GDP, but also a long‐term supply effect. After a quantitative analysis, Chen (2003) concluded that FDI took an important part in investment and foreign trade by direct ways and indirect so as to stimulate economic growth. Access to relevant information, we can know that FDI has crowing‐in effect and crowing‐out effect. So called crowing‐in effect is inflow of FDI driving domestic investment resulted in making the incrementation of domestic total investment exceed that of FDI.

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Additionally, increment can also have an effect on economic growth. Based on Chinese provincial panel data from 1987 to 2001, Luo (2006) utilized fixed effect and stochastic effect these two analytic methods to analyze the influence of FDI, fixed investment and resident consumption on economic growth. In his study, FDI is a kind of investment has little function on economic growth. Nevertheless, through crowing‐in domestic investment and development of total factor‐productivity, it typically made contributions to economy straightly. Beyond those, how would FDI promote the economic growth of the host country? FDI had a long‐time effect on economic growth in China through technological change, French scholar Stephanedees (1998) considered that FDI may as well develop labor productivity and maintain national competitiveness in the process of technology development. Thus, differentiation of FDI has become the condition of achieving future success.

Regional development and infrastructure construction can’t be divided. Being another aspect of investment, fixed investment typically plays a significant role in economic growth. Early in 1999, Kwan, Wu and Zhang had put forward that fixed investment has positive effect in bringing about economic progress in the investment‐economic growth. It seemed the opinion in conflict with the mainstream standpoint‐‐‐export‐oriented economic growth.

Later some scholars’ study proved it to be reasonable. Liu (2012) made an empirical checkout on the long‐time relationship as itself and economy finance by calculating effect coefficient of investment and of fixed investment with building NAR model which took Tianjin Province as an example. It turned out that there being long‐run equilibrium relationship between fixed investment and resident consumption. Having used similar method, Zhang (2011) thought that fixed investment is the precondition for economic growth of a nation or a region. She thought fixed investment as another important approach of optimizing regional industrial structure. Research made by Jing Zhang (2010) came to the same results, she also pointed out that the investment in fixed assets is the embodiment of the state capital to play a control role in the national economy.

With economic globalization deepened day by day, international market investment risk increased as well as foreign trade export difficulty enlarged. To expand domestic demand became a focus issue in economic growth.

Wei and Mao (2009) recognized internal cause being key factor in stimulating China economic growth while external demand followed. Certainly huge domestic market demand became more and more important in driving economic growth. In addition, there is time lag in pulling power of investment and exportation. Domestic market demand has the nature of double‐edged sword (Chen, 2012). What’s more, by comparative analysis and research on government consumption and resident, Xu (2011) found that majorities of city consumption around the country have distinct impact on economic growth, especially in eastern areas. On the basis of relevant study, Jin and Liu (2006) took AnHui Province as an example making a specific research about functions of resident consumption on economic growth, the researching showed the consumer has played a decisive role in economic growth, and has a certain lag effect. Owing to it, Peng (2012) redivided resident consumption into rural and urban residents consumption, concluding that rural resident consumption being the dominant sector among these consumption subjects while urban resident comes next with government consumption on the last.

Taking FDI, resident consumption and fixed investment into consideration, many scholars made specific analytic investigations. Xu and Huang (2006) found that by expanding employment, export trade and local tax, FDI mainly focused on improving managerial experience and technology which has exogenous economic powerhouse on NingBo. Additionally, Lai and Huang (2008) argued consumption and economic growth bi‐directional driving, while for NingBo, economic growth on consumption pushed stronger than consumption on economy. There existed dynamic balance relationship that is long‐term and stable. In the same year, in NingBo, Huang and Huang (2008) found that there is a strong correlation between fixed assets investment and economic growth, constitute a long‐term stable equilibrium relationship on Ningbo, in addition, they have a dual role by the quantitative analysis.

Methodology Shift‐share method analysis (SSA), that is to consider the change of region economy as dynamic process, take economy development of its superior administrations as reference system, separating the areas increment at one time into 3 variables, namely share component, transfer structure component and transfer competence component aiming to account for the reason of regional economy development and recession together with evaluating the strength of region economic structure and competitive. Then it found region industrial sectors which own relative

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competitive advantages, providing evidences for ensuring rational directions of regional future economic growth and adjustment of industrial structure.

According to SSA, we generally assume that after time [0, t] area i went through economic‐aggregate and structure.

Suppose total scale of base area i is

, and final is

according to certain rules and used

,

one by one.

,

, then divided regional economy into n industrial sectors to express scale of the base and final area i ranked j

stood for the total scale where area of base and final,

and

reprensent large area scale of

base and final. It follows: (1)Change rate in area i ranked j of time

:

(2)Area i in j industrial sectors of large area in

(1) :

(2)

(3)Share of big area, standardization :

(3)

Thus, increment of time area i ranked j, can be divided into share component transfer share and regional competitive deviatoric component . As shown below:

, industry structure

(4) ,

(5) (6) (7)

Based on the data above, we can get total structure deviation component P, total competitive deviation component D, total structure effectiveness index W and competitive effectiveness index U. As shown below: (8)

(9)

(

(

) (10)

) (11)

(12) In the above formula, the bigger than 1, the bigger

is with L bigger than 1, the faster increment of area i than area j. With W bigger

is, the more sunrise industry among economy, more contributions to economic growth. Within

U bigger than 1, the bigger

is, it shows that i area has the stronger competitiveness advantage.

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This type of analytic method commonly focused on studying influence of industrial structure on economic growth, recently is used in other catalogued issued. For example, Jia and Luo (2012) used for the research of customers analysis on Chongqing entry‐in tourist market. They took data from 2002 to 2009 as sample, divided customer increment into share components, structure component and competitive transfer component and found changes in market trend analysis showed differences. For example, structure component of America, HongKong, Macau and Japan kept steady while that of Singapore, Australia and Canada a rising trend and Taiwan weak. Then it referred to target market and direction. This indicated, as long as mechanically applied, SSA can be accepted in the analysis of other issues.

Therefore, the article used statistic data from 2001 to 2011 of NingBo statistical year book and Zhejiang statistical year book on the basis of SSA and made an empirical analysis on the influence of FDI, fixed investment and resident consumption on economic growth.

First, to unify unit, it conversed data. Thus, it got exchange rates over the years in the center bank internet.

TABLE 1 FOREIGN EXCHANGE (1USD TO RMB)

Year

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

1USD:RMB

8.28

8.28

8.28

8.28

8.28

8.07

7.81

7.30

6.84

6.83

6.62

(Source: The People’s Bank of China)

After calculating relevant data, it gained GDP, FDI, Fixed asset investment and Resident consumption in NingBo and Zhejiang from 2001 to 2011. As shown in tables 2 and 3.

TABLE 2 NINGBO CITY MUNICIPAL STATISTICS DATA (2001‐2011)

Year

GDP

The actual use of FDI

Fixed asset investment

Resident consumer

Unit

RMB 100Million

USD 10 Thousand

RMB 100Million

RMB 100Million

2001

1312.68

87446.00

470.28

367.730

2002

1500.34

124696.00

601.27

414.980

2003

1786.85

172727.00

835.90

455.200

2004

2109.45

210322.00

1103.81

499.200

2005

2449.31

231079.00

1336.30

532.080

2006

2874.44

243018.00

1502.77

618.580

2007

3418.57

250518.00

1597.54

736.830

2008

3946.52

253789.00

1728.24

852.980

2009

4329.30

220541.00

2004.22

938.190

2010

5163.00

232336.00

2193.28

980.160

2011

6059.24

280929.00

2385.50

1119.220

(Source: Ningbo Municipal Statistics Bureau)

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TABLE 3 ZHEJIANG PROVINCE MUNICIPAL STATISTICS DATA (2001‐2011)

YEAR

GDP

THE ACTUAL USE OF FDI

FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT

RESIDENT CONSUMER

Unit

RMB 100 Million

USD 10 Thousand

RMB 100 Million

RMB 100 Million

2001

6898.340

221162.000

2776.700

2508.960

2002

8003.670

316002.000

3596.300

2766.040

2003

9705.020

544936.000

4180.380

3201.130

2004

11648.700

668128.000

5384.380

3741.420

2005

13417.680

772271.000

6138.390

4398.700

2006

15718.470

888935.000

6964.280

5138.200

2007

18753.730

1036576.000

7704.900

5931.340

2008

21462.690

1007294.000

8550.710

6686.750

2009

22990.350

993974.000

9906.460

7483.160

2010

27722.310

1100175.000

11451.980

8676.400

2011

32318.850

1166601.000

14077.250

10206.180

(Source: Zhejiang Municipal Statistics Bureau)

Empirical Analysis Since accession to 2012, in NingBo, in order to measure positive effect of FDI, fixed investment and resident consumption on economy, based on SSA and deviation component, the article used these three factors to analyze its influence on economy.

In the SSA model, suppose year 2001 as base period, 2011 final period, and calculating exchange rate by $1=6.3 yuan. Furthermore, suppose total economy of NingBo as and

, fixed investment as

Zhejiang as

and

and

and

(t=1,2.....11), foreign direct investment as

, resident consumption as

, foreign direct investment as

resident consumption as

and and

and

, fixed investment as

consumption

, exchange rate of fixed investment . In Zhejiang Province, change rate of economic growth

foreign direct investment consumption

and

,

.

To know from above, from 2001 to 2011, NingBo change rate of economic growth is foreign direct investment

. Suppose total economy of

, change rate of fixed investment

, change rate of , change rate of resident , change rate of , change rate of resident

.

Standardize the data above, it got:

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,

,

.

According to deviation components above, it gained total structure deviation component P, total competitive deviation component D, total structure effectiveness index W and competitive effectiveness index U. Further as shown below: ,

,

,

(13) ,

,

(14) ,

,

,

,

(15) (16)

,

(17)

(18) (19) The proportion of base period:

The proportion of final period:

,

,

,

,

(20)

(21)

(22)

(23)

(24)

As shown above, N in the [13] represented increment of FDI in NingBo, fixed investment and resident consumption following Zhejiang average growth rate. D in the [14] meant the three factors competitive deviation component. The bigger it is, the better its economic effectiveness will be. P in the [15] meant structure deviation component, which represented despite of difference in NingBo and Zhejiang economic average growth rate, the contribution of single factor structure of NingBo economic growth. The bigger the amount is, the better factor of structure quality is, the more distinctive its driving power is. PD in the [16] meant growth advantage of single factor. The bigger its amount is, the more potential it would gain in economic growth.

As for total effectiveness produced by factors, if (L>1), the bigger G is, economic growth of NingBo is faster than that of Zhejiang. If (W>1), the bigger P is, more potential NingBo has on economic growth, the better total structure effectiveness would be. On the contrary, if P got bigger but (W<1), it would be necessary to adjust factor economy structure. If D is bigger and (U>1), NingBo’s FDI, fixed investment and resident consumption have active effect on economy. Otherwise, it indicated it a little weak of growth trend for NingBo’s FDI, fixed asset investment and resident consumption. Studied data and concluded are shown as below.

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TABLE 4 THE SSA ANALYSIS RESULTS

The basic calculation numerical

Factors

Zhejiang Change Rate (R)

Ningbo Change Rate( r)

Ningbo Standardized scale

The base period proportion

The proportion of the late

FDI

3.217

1.568

1.922

0.395

0.241

Fixed asset investment

4.070

4.073

189.296

0.169

0.169

Residents consumption

3.068

2.044

133.745

0.147

0.110

Overall the numerical

Factors

Growth in total (G)

Share component (N)

Transfer structure component (P)

Competitive transfer component (D)

FDI

113.560

6.184

226.787

‐119.412

Fixed asset investment

1915.220

770.392

1143.543

1.285

Residents consumption

751.490

410.316

717.840

‐376.666

TABLE 5 THE TOTAL EFFECT ON NINGBO FDI\ FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT\ RESIDENTS CONSUMPTION

Item

The numerical

The total transfer The total Structure effect Competitive Total share structure component competitiveness index(W) effect index(U) Component(N) (P) transfer component(D) 1.003

The relative growth rate(L)

0.882

1186.892 0.885

2088.171 Total growth (G)

The total transfer component(PD)

‐494.792

1593.378 2780.270

Further calculation. To make a visual impression of data and easier to get conclusions, the article analysed the data into figures. First, it takes NingBo’s factor competitive transfer components as horizontal axis, structure transfer components as vertical axis, label scatters in the coordinate system, draw transfer components analytic chart, as shown in Fig. 4. Then, it makes NingBo’s resource advantages (total transfer component) PD as horizontal axis, shares component N as vertical axis. We built a coordinate system which had scatters stood for the specific factors labeled in. A chart of factor analysis had finished, as shown in Fig. 5.

(Note: there bisectrix 45 degrees according to the proportion of transverse and longitudinal correction in figure.)

FIG. 4 THE STRUCTURE TRANSFER COMPONENT ANALYSIS DIAGRAM FOR NINGBO FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, INVESTMENT IN FIXED ASSETS AND RESIDENTSʹ CONSUMPTION

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FIG. 5 THE STRUCTURE ADVANTAGE ANALYSIS DIAGRAM FOR NINGBO FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, INVESTMENT IN FIXED ASSETS AND RESIDENTSʹ CONSUMPTION

Findings and Interpretations Through the studying data above, it combined with chart, based shift‐share analytic results.

An analysis of R and r, and the three factors’ proportions on the base and last period in ZheJiang: Since accession, NingBo’s change rate in 2011 of FDI had come to 1.568, change rate of resident consumption was 2.044, compared with larger area ZheJiang change rate 3.217 and 3.068, it still has a big distance. Furthermore, base period proportions of FDI and resident consumption in ZheJiang reached 0.395 and 0.147 while final period fell down to 0.241 and 0.110. Meanwhile, growth speed of NingBo fixed asset investment is roughly the same as ZheJiang, which changed slightly. All the data showed it develop in a bit speed in NingBo growth of FDI, fixed asset investment and resident consumption. The chart indicated its competitive advantage by the three factors.

An analysis of G and L: As shown in table 4, G is a little big while comparative growth rate (L=0.885<1), which shows NingBo economic growth speed is smaller than ZheJiang under the condition of three factors influence of economy. Thus, we should pay more attention to its potential of driving economic growth.

An analysis of P and W: Total structure transfer component P=3088.17, structure effectiveness index (W=1.003>1), which indicated NingBo economic growth has potential and advantage. Its good total structure effectiveness helped drive economy, including the most important one P‐‐fixed asset investment 1143.5. Its resident consumption came next and FDI the last, showed a bigger pulling power of fixed investment on economy.

Additionally, we are supposed to improve FDI and resident consumption.

An analysis of D and U: NingBo’s total competitiveness transfer component D is a negative number and competitive effectiveness component (U=0.882<1). This meant it a little weak for NingBo growth trend of FDI, fixed investment and resident consumption, seems to be lack of competitiveness.

A horizontal analysis indicates that it a little weak of three factors growth rate and economic growth driver.

NingBo FDI, fixed investment and resident consumption proportion of base period and final in ZheJiang remained silent, even decreased. Besides, growth rates of three factors are not high enough, typically FDI and resident consumption are lower than average amount. D is a negative number, (U<1), (L<1). All above meant three factors lack of competitiveness growth in a small speed, which had little positive function on NingBo economic growth.

So, we should take method to improve potential of economic growth.

Therefore, in the investment, government are supposed to complete double lifting of software and hardware. As for software, government need constantly perfect its law system of FDI and fixed investment. Beyond focusing on investing amount, we should as well monitor investment project and effectively filter in a reasonable way.

Additionally, high quality, modernization of economic infrastructure and providing investors with good hardware facilities are stressed.

In resident consumption, government should make full use of function of macro‐control and monitor the market in

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an effective way as well as perfect law system. When ensuring market on work, government should protect consumer benefit to promote consumption, widen domestic demand.

Analysis Result on Horizontal Comparison Taking horizontal comparison into consideration, the general effect of three elements is better.

According to the research above, the total structure transfer component (P=3088.17) is larger than structure effectiveness index (W>1), we can see the three elements total structure effectiveness is better. The combination makes positive effect towards NingBo economic growth, especially fixed investment. According to the ‘NingBo Twelfth‐Five Year Plans’, NingBo has been a city that possesses a small amount of resource whose harbors are of great advantage. In the plan, the people’s livelihood has caught more attention and made the growth of city residents disposable personal income more than 10%, residents income up to 10.5%, running ahead of 10% GDP growth. Resident’s income must have positive effect on the consumption raise and economic growth. To reach the goal concerned based on the plan, NingBo government made the adjustment and upgrade of economy structure while promoting general development. No matter government, companies and individual, apart from the increase of fixed investment, properly attracting and using foreign capital are important, too. As a port city and the first opening‐up city, NingBo should set a good example of attracting and using foreign capital. Then, make rational allocation of resource and complement each other’s advantages, further improve NingBo structure transfer component of FDI, as well as make full use of its functions towards economic growth.

As for individuals, we are supposed to build proper consumption concept and rationally consumed. Under a series of policies forming casual shopping city, individuals should choose correctly, adjust our own consumption structure and push economy grow into a steady speed.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Authors must thank for the researchers for this area, they gave us more ideas to help the study. And also many thanks for the reviewers who gave us some recommendations.

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