International Journal of Sociology Study Volume 2, 2014
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Probing about the Root of Countryside Aging of Coastal Zones in ShangHai ZhangXiaoLi, ZhouJian Center for the Ocean Economy, ShangHai Ocean University, ShangHai, 201306, China xlzhang@shou.edu.cn Received 19 March, 2014; Accepted 27 March, 2014; Published 17 July, 2014 © 2014 Science and Engineering Publishing Company
Abstract The paper mainly studied about the present situation and feature of aging in countryside of coastal zone in ShangHai by comparing. The result we got is that the rate of aging in countryside of coastal zone is higher than that that in total China, but is lower than those counties in center of ShangHai. There are 4 roots of aging in countryside of coastal zone. The first is that economic development and technical progression have brought out the decreasing of nature growth rate of population. The second is that, at the beginning of China’s reform and open to the outside, most population from the counties of non coastal zone and the provinces out of ShangHai migrated to those counties, such as PuDong and BaoShan in near suburb. In recent years, many populations migrated to NanHui and FengXian in far-suburb. Only a few populations migrated to ChongMing and JinShan far from the center of ShangHai. The third is that, from the structure of age, the age of populations who migrated to coastal zones are mainly yang. This brought out a lot of “demographic gift” in coastal zones in ShangHai, The last is for ChongMing county in coastal zone in ShangHai. By our study, as there were poor economic development and the poor condition of traffic. There were too many yang people migrated from ChongMing county to other counties, and these people are mainly yang and have high technology and knowledge. These are the reasons of ChongMing’s high rate of aging. Keywords Coastal Zone; Nature Growth Rate of Population; Migration of Population
The Definition of Coastal Zone in Shanghai In line with the definition released by State Oceanic Administration, the coastal zone is narrowly defined as county, county-level city, county-level district (including municipality and prefect-level city) with coastal line. Therefore, BaoShan District, PuDong New Area, JinShan District, FengXian District, NanHui District and ChongMing County are the coastal zone within ShangHai[1]. A total maritime area which
surrounds these districts is up to 8000 square kilometer. With abundant maritime resources such as harbor waterway, wetlands, marine-related industries like fishery industry, coastal tourism, wind and tide, marine transportation, container port terminal, coastal tourism and fishery have been developed, which plays an important role in Shanghai’s social economy development and people’s happy life. Overview for the Present Condition and Features of Aging Population in the Coastal Zone in Shanghai. TABLE 2-1 AGING POPULATION IN COASTAL AREAS IN SHANGHAI UNIT: 10 THOUSAND PEOPLE
District
JinShan NanHui BaoShan FengXian PuDong ChongMing Total JinShan NanHui BaoShan FengXian PuDong ChongMing Total JinShan NanHui BaoShan FengXian PuDong ChongMing Total
Aging Permanent population population rate 2006 (Aging population rate is 0.202 in Shanghai) 22.28 52.23 0.185 63.46 27.45 72.73 0.181 93.05 7.89 81.59 0.193 132.7 20.52 51.33 0.188 74.55 12.32 187.56 0.194 285.3 47.87 69.98 0.225 67.06 138.33 515.42 716.12 2007 (Aging population rate is 0.208 in Shanghai) 21.49 52.1 0.193 66.78 24.17 73.4 0.187 96.75 7.18 83.06 0.199 133.21 20.06 51.57 0.196 74.89 11.25 191.16 0.201 305.36 46.82 69.71 0.234 65.73 130.97 521 742.72 2010 (Aging population rate is 0.216 in Shanghai) 20.91 51.87 0.203 64.56 23.5 74.31 0.194 106.21 6.49 84.7 0.209 140.63 19.66 51.7 0.205 80.84 10.67 194.29 0.209 305.70 45.03 69.34 0.243 67.26 126.26 526.21 765.2
Aging Total population Population
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Overview for Aging Population In accordance to the 2007-2009 Shanghai Statistical Yearbook, Shanghai Suburbs Statistical Yearbook and the data of 6th national population census, the agriculture population and aging rate of Shanghai coastal zones from 2006-2010 are summarized as follows. What’s mentioning is that the data on NanHui District is calculated on the proportion of the previous NanHui District’s population accounting for the PuDong New District. The data can be processed in this way because of the reason that the demographic statistic of NanHui district is comprehensive before it is incorporated into PuDong New Area. Besides, it is one of the important coastal areas in promoting the long-term development in maritime industry. TABLE 2-2 AGING POPULATION RANKING OF ALL DISTRICTS IN SHANGHAI
Ranking NanHui District JinShan District SongJiang District FengXian District BaoShan District QingPu District MinHang District Pudong New Area YangPu District ZhaBei District ChangNing District PuTuo District HuangPu District JiaDing District HongKou District XuHui District ChongMing County LuWan District Jing’An District
Aging population rate in 2006 0.180943 0.184548 0.187371 0.188389 0.192916 0.193513 0.193733 0.194125 0.197216 0.203407 0.204168 0.20449 0.209171 0.21108 0.214231 0.216225 0.225207 0.2292 0.233204
Ranking NanHui District SongJiang District JinShan District FengXian District MinHang District QingPu District BaoShan District PuDong New Area YangPu District ZhaBei District ChangNing District PuTuo District HuangPu District JiaDing District HongKou District XuHui District ChongMing County LuWan District Jing’An District
Aging population rate in 2007 0.187466 0.192003 0.192514 0.19585 0.198352 0.199606 0.199856 0.200565 0.203974 0.209322 0.210699 0.212076 0.214003 0.218442 0.221251 0.22292 0.234256 0.235634 0.2404
Ranking NanHui District SongJiang District JinShan District FengXian District MinHang District QingPu District PuDong New Area BaoShan District YangPu District ChangNing District ZhaBei District PuTuo District HuangPu District JiaDing District HongKou District XuHui District ChongMing County LuWan District Jing’An District
Aging population rate in 2010 0.193917 0.197674 0.202622 0.204836 0.205683 0.206415 0.208966 0.209234 0.212555 0.217207 0.217928 0.221237 0.222259 0.226269 0.23012 0.230419 0.242573 0.244115 0.249032
Judging from the current collected data, the aging population rate of all coastal areas is much higher than
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10%, critical value set by UN. Current aging society in coastal areas is practically severe. Features Comparing with other Districts. On the perspective of aging population, there exists distinct difference on aging population rate of all districts in Shanghai. The aging population rate of Shanghai in 2006, 2007 and 2010 is 20.2%, 20.8% and 21.6% respectively. Aging population rate ranking of all districts in Shanghai can be obtained from the table 2-2 From the table 2-2, following conclusion can be drawn: The aging population rate of coastal area in Shanghai is lower than central areas like Jing’An District. The aging population rate of coastal areas except ChongMing which ranks at the high-level for three consective years in Shanghai ranks top 8 among all the districts. Five out of the top 6 aging population ranking are coastal areas. The non-coastal areas in Shanghai enjoy high aging population rank except SongJiang, QingPu and MinHang. In 2007 and 2010, the other four coastal areas except BaoShan district, which ranks No.8, ranks top 5 in the aging population ranking.② The aging population rate of coastal areas except ChongMing County in Shanghai is much lower Shanghai’s average level. Comparing with other Provinces in China Here follows the aging population rate comparison with other regions in China. We only take the data of 2010 only for convenience in analyses. First, from the perspective of the overall average level, the aging population rate of Shanghai in 2007 is 21.6%. The average national aging population rate is 9%. The age population rate in Shanghai is much higher than average national level. Second, from the perspectivetion of comparing with each region in China. Shanghai’s aging population rate is highest in China reaching 21%. The aging population rate of Chongqing is 12%, which is right after Shanghai. The aging population rate of TianJin, LiaoNing, Jiangsu, ZheJiang, SiChuan, etc is 11%. Comprehensive speaking, the aging population in Shanghai is more severe than any other region in China. Judging from the table 2-2 and table 2-3, the aging population rate of the coastal areas in Shanghai is still higher than national average level though it is lower than aging population rate of ShangHai. The lowest aging population rate of coastal areas is 19.4% from table 2-2. Shanghai’s and ChongQing’s
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aging population phenomenon are two most severe areas reaching 21% and 12% respectively. The minimum aging population rate of coastal areas in ShangHai is up to 19.4%. It is also a severe aging population area. TABLE 2-3 NATIONAL AGING POPULATION RATE
Aging Aging Region Population rate Population rate Nationwide 0.09 HuBei 0.1 BeiJing 0.1 HuNan 0.1 TianJin 0.11 GuangDong 0.07 HeBei 0.09 GuangXi 0.09 ShanXi 0.07 HaiNan 0.09 Inner Mongolia 0.08 ChongQing 0.12 LiaoNing 0.11 SiChuan 0.11 JiLin 0.09 GuiZhou 0.08 Hei LongJiang 0.09 YunNan 0.07 ShangHai 0.21 Tibet 0.07 JiangSu 0.11 ShaanXi 0.1 ZheJiang 0.11 GanSu 0.08 An’Hui 0.11 QingHai 0.07 FuJian 0.1 NingXia 0.06 JiangXi 0.09 XinJiang 0.07 ShanDong 0.1 XinJiang 0.07 HeNan 0.08 Region
Combining the analyses mentioned above and the related information, the aging population rate of central Shanghai is higher than that of suburb Shanghai. The aging population of coastal areas except ChongMing County is even lower among all the aging population rate of suburb Shanghai. It is vise verse in inland areas. Because of the urbanization or tertiary education, a large number of rural youths and teenagers enter the secondary industry and tertiary industry of cities, which gives rise to remaining rural labor force tending to aging population while this phenomenon is completely different in other coastal area in Shanghai, i.e Aging population rate in suburb area is lower than that of in central area. However, generally speaking, the aging population rate of urban area is lower than that of rural area. The following section will explain it in detail. Underlying Reasons for Aging Population of All Suburb Area in Coastal Zone Decreasing Birth Rate In 20th century, persistent creative technology strongly pushes forward the world economy. Increasing income level and progress in medical technology contribute to the high survival rate and expanding to the average life span. Such progress results in low death rate, which reveals not only in the infant and low aging group but also in the senior citizen group[2]. Though
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the death rate of 1990s in Shanghai was stable with a slight increase, the overall death rate in the past six decade presents a downward trend. Therefore, the decrease of the death rate is a common feature in the social development. All coastal areas of Shanghai can’t be exception. In addition, the birth rate in Shanghai drops dramatically wit the introduction of family planning policy. By 1993, a negative birth rate of Shanghai first appeared at that time and lasted for several consecutive years. TABLE 2-4 THE CHANGE OF INCREASE RATE OF POPULATION IN COASTAL AREAS, SHANGHAI AND WHOLE CHINA
Region JingAn PuDong BaoShan JinShan NanHui FengXian ChongMing ShangHai Nationwide
1999 -4.8 -2.2 -2.2 0.0 2.8 0.2 -2.6 -3.7 8.18
2000 -3.8 -1.6 -1.9 -0.6 0.5 0.7 -2.6 -3.2 7.58
Natural increase rate（%） 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -4.2 -4.8 -5.6 -3.8 -4.32 -4.27 -2.3 -5.4 -2.8 -0.1 -0.6 -0.1 -2.4 -0.1 -3 -0.5 -1 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -1 0.9 0.1 -0.9 -1.2 -0.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.5 -0.2 -3.8 0.0 -4.1 -2.9 -2.9 -2.4 -2.7 -2.6 -3.2 -1.2 -1.6 -1.24 6.95 6.45 6.01 5.87 5.89 5.28
2007 -2.16 1.6 0.3 -0.4 2 -0.1 -2.4 -0.1 5.17
2010 0.9 -0.1 -1.2 0.8 -1 -3.7 5.08
What’s worth mentioning is that judging by the table 2-4 and China Statistic Yearbook, the birth rate of the urban Shanghai (taking JingAn as an example)is much lower than that of suburb area in coastal zone in Shanghai. The birth rate of suburb area in coastal zone in Shanghai is lower than that of inland China and average national level. Shanghai Municipal Government and all regions of coastal areas are restricted with National and Shanghai Family Planning Policy. The central Shanghai which opened up to outside world, built foreign concessions and traded with foreign countries is influenced by the urbanization, modernization, information and internationalization of foreign developed countries. The residents of urban areas are aware of the disadvantage of the high birth rate and its related consequence such as decreasing education, living standard and education cost. Therefore, the central city residents showed an earlier decline in natural population growth and decline greatly. Before the reform and opening up policy, as the restricted conditions of transportation, communication and Shanghai’s social economic development, such awareness of population can only spread to a certain extent, to the suburbs of coastal area for maximum. It spends longer period of time to spread such awareness to distant inner mainland. Moreover, the social, economic, technological, cultural, historical difference
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toward population presents a lag effect. Thus the rural residents of coastal area are affected by the impact of downtown Shanghai directly and quickly, therefore, they are aware of the risk brought by increasing population and they carried out the Family Planning Policy thoroughly. The rural area of coastal area is later than the urban area but earlier than the inland area undergoing the rapid decline in the birth rate and sustainably growing life span. This is one of the reasons resulting the aging population rate of coastal areas is lower than the urban area of Shanghai but higher than the average national level.
for only 6%, the immigration of the population aged from 15-49 years old accounted for 82.9% and the immigrated teenagers whose age under 14 is up to 11.4%, which is far more than the immigrated senior citizens. The immigrant workers who are under the age of 59 accounted for 23.13% of Shanghai’s total population, which eases the serious of aging population caused by the decline of the birth rate. In a word, though the aging population of Shanghai is serious ranking first nationwide, plenty of energetic external population moved into Shanghai and added the demographic dividend for Shanghai.
Rising Migration Rate of Shanghai Caused by Shanghai Social and Economic Development.
Different features of aging population caused by the migration and distribution of population in different districts
① Promote the increase of overall demographic dividend from population migration Since 1950s, Shanghai’s natural birth rate of population tended to decline and in 1993 the natural birth rate of household population became negative. However, the total population of ShangHai still increased significantly year on year. Thus, since 1993, the growth rate of Shanghai household population (as well as the resident population) is determined by external immigration. The following Table 2-5 reveals the information on permanent residents in Shanghai from 2000 to 2010. Judging from the table, the external permanent residents grow mildly after entering the 21st century. In 2005, it is up to 4.38 million, 147% of the 2000. From 2000 to 2010 period, the growth rate of the permanent resident is 17%, while during the same period Shanghai’s resident increased only 5% and the external population growth rate reached 73%, which nearly 15 times of the Shanghai residents’ growth speed. TABLE 2-5 SHANGHAI POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS UNIT: 10 THOUSAND
Indicator
2000
2005
2010
Growth rate from 2000 to 2010 %
Permanent residents 1 608.63 1 778.42 1888.46 0.17 at the end of year Household population 1 309.63 1 340.02 1371.04 0.05 External population staying 299.00 438.40 517.42 0.73 for over half a year (Note: Data from the corresponding year of the "Shanghai Statistical Yearbook")
The majority of the external population are vigorous middle-aged or youths. According to the sixth census of the population age structure statistics, the immigration of the population aged over 50 accounted
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Since adopting the reform and opening up policy, Shanghai has achieved rapid and sustainable economic growth, creating a lot of jobs conditions and favorable employment environment to attract a large number of migrants moving in. Meanwhile, the urban transformation, expansion and upgrading of industrial structure, spatial layout adjustments, and pushing forward the suburbanization of modern cities leads to changes of the migration of the city's population. The dual function of the change of external population and urban population promotes the redistribution of the Shanghai’s population, which expands the development space for Shanghai, increase the comprehensive competitiveness of city and set favorable conditions for inter-coordination of urban economy and society and sustainable development. It also sets the different features of aging population in coastal areas in Shanghai. In the 21st century, immigration of external population and the migration of the urban population are constantly reshaping the redistribution of the Shanghai’s population, which affects the features of the aging society of coastal areas in Shanghai. Spatial analyses Shanghai
of
population migration in
Since mid-1980s, Shanghai proposed to adjust industrial layout and released the policy on expanding the industrial to the suburbs area. Under the support of a series of policies, The big industrial companies (especially those polluting enterprises),Central Shanghai has moved to the suburbs area one after another with the expanding tendency of suburbanization of population. The 1990s is not only a vital period of Shanghai’s construction and rapid economic development but also an important period of
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reducing the population in central Shanghai as the main feature of the modern urbanization accelerating and development, when the reconstruction of the old city of Shanghai and mass construction of the new suburb areas are conducted in large scale. Cross-district migration, especially the migration of population proliferation from central area to suburb area, is persistently active with the demolition as main reasons. Since 2000, the large-scale reconstruction and revamping boom started in the 1990s tends to be stable. Population migration tends to be mild with the easing of industrial layout adjustment within the Inner Ring. Entering the new century, with the easing of reconstruction and the demolition of Shanghai, migration population from urban area becomes stable or slightly decline. With the development of the Shanghai railway transportation and the economic growth in suburb area, population migration especially the proliferation of the suburbanization remains to be continued. Spatial features population.
of
immigration
of
external
From the perspective of the immigration scale of external population examining the layer of the central area, edge of the central area, suburb area and outskirts. The external immigrants moved to the suburb areas and outskirt, accounting for 46.5% and 26.7% respectively, TABLE 2-6 MIGRATION POPULATION RANKING OF ALL DISTRICTS UNIT: 10 THOUSAND
Immigrant Immigrant District District population population Ranking Ranking in 2000 in 2003 Jing'An 4.64 Jing'An 4.25 LuWan 4.85 LuWan 5.12 ChongMing 5.40 ChongMing 5.41 JinShan 6.08 JinShan 7.52 HuangPu 9.43 HuangPu 10.01 NanHui 12.42 ZhaBei 14.63 FengXian 13.06 HongKou 14.74 HongKou 14.38 NanHui 16.56 ZhaBei 14.40 ChangNing 17.31 ChangNing 16.27 FengXian 19.77 QingPu 16.82 YangPu 20.34 SongJiang 19.05 XuHui 20.50 YangPu 19.68 PuTtuo 23.36 PuTuo 23.11 QingPu 27.01 XuHui 23.31 SongJiang 32.55 JiaDing 25.40 JiaDing 40.01 BaoShan 37.44 BaoShan 43.98 MinHang 48.10 MinHang 73.38 PuDong 73.28 PuDong 102.34 (Note: Data from 2004 "Shanghai Statistical Yearbook")
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73.2% in all. Only 26.84% of the immigrants choose to move to the non-suburb area. 5% or so of them choose to move to central area. The immigrants from outside Shanghai prefers to move to PuDong New Area, MinHang District, JiaDing District and BaoShan District and SongJiang District and QingPu in western Shanghai with 280 thousand immigrants and accounting for above 6%. 18.05% and 13.37% of immigrants prefer to move to PuDong New Area and MinHang District. On the contrary, few people prefer to move to central area like LuWan, Jing’An. Outskirt area like JinShan and ChongMing have few immigrants originally. Secondly, from the perspective of immigration rate examining the layer of the central area, edge of the central area, suburb area and outskirts, the immigration rate of moving to the suburb area and outskirts is 35.13% and 28.17% respectively while the immigration rate of moving to the central area and the edge of the central area is 19.69% and 17.83% respectively, all under 20%. The immigration rate of moving to JiaDing, SongJiang, QingPu, MinHang, FengXian and PuDong are all over 30% and the immigration rate of moving to the JiaDing and SongJiang is 48.72% and 42.31%, which ranks top 2. The statistic mentioned above reveals the fact that the choice of the inhabitant area for immigrants is related to the urban planning on key new city’s construction in Shanghai. Most immigrants choose to move into the newly built area with more opportunities. In a word, the immigrants moving into Shanghai will benefit the TABLE 2-7 THE CHANGE OF GROWTH RATE OF THE POPULATION DESITY IN DIFFERENT DISTRICTS AT DIFFERENT PERIOD %
District 1999-2003 2003-2007 1999-2007 PuDong 0.103854 0.061538 0.171783 HuangPu -0.07107 -0.02116 -0.09072 LuWan -0.10084 -0.05141 -0.14706 XuHui 0.029915 0.006489 0.036599 ChangNing 0.00984 -0.00943 0.000313 Jing’An -0.13564 -0.03362 -0.1647 PuTuo 0.007055 0.020821 0.028023 ZhaBei 0.009388 -0.01802 -0.0088 HongKou -0.01598 -0.00332 -0.01925 YangPu 0.000225 -0.00427 -0.00404 BaoShan 0.1 0.490034 0.639037 MinHang 0.216737 -0.99901 -0.9988 JiaDing 0.076255 0.039462 0.118726 JinShan -0.011 -0.01112 -0.022 SongJiang 0.028221 0.069212 0.099387 QingPu 0.007429 0.007375 0.014859 NanHui 0.01194 0.064897 0.077612 FengXian 0.008174 0.013514 0.021798 ChongMing -0.04239 -0.03607 -0.07692 (Note: Data from the corresponding year of the "Shanghai Statistical Yearbook")
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key new city’s construction in Shanghai. Comparing with the result of the census conducting in 2000, the basic spatial model of the choice of the inhabitant area is stable. The immigrants prefer to move to the rural areas especially the suburb area. Some partial changes mainly presents as follows: The people prefer to move to MinHang and JiaDing instead of the PuDong and BaoShan in line with the survey conducted in 2005. The immigrants who move to BaoShan fell 6.49% comparing with the survey conducted in 2000 while the immigrants who move to JiaDing rise 2.25%. Table 2-7 shows the change of population density of different districts at different time periods. We can infer from the table that from 1999 to 2003, the increment of population density of all districts in Shanghai basically locates in suburb area like MinHang, PuDong, BaoShan and JiaDing or the outskirt like NanHui and SongJiang with the planning of the new city construction. Meanwhile, the population density declined in central area like Jing’An, LuWan and HuangPu and the outskirt like JinShan and ChongMing which are under performance in economy. During the period of 2003 to 2007, population density of PuDong and BaoShan increases the fastest, followed by SongJiang and ChongMing while the population density decreased in central areas like LuWan, Jin’An and HuangPu and outskirts like JinShan and ChongMing. MinHang, which is locates at the edge of the central area, gradually enter the phase of the population decentralization and presented a negative growth in population density because of the booming population in 1999-2003 The change of the population density of 6 coastal areas at certain period in Shanghai has been individually listed to illustrate the problems conveniently. TABLE 2-8 GROWTH RATE OF THE POPULATION DENSITY IN COASTAL AREA %
Regions BaoShan PuDong NanHui FengXian 1999-2003 0.1 0.103854 0.01194 0.008174 2003-2007 0.490034 0.061538 0.064897 0.013514 1999-2007 0.639037 0.171783 0.077612 0.021798
Analyses of the industry immigrant population.
distribution
for
From the previous analyses, the population density of the coastal areas including PuDong, BaoShan, NanHui and FengXian is sustainably increasing and the population density of JinShan and ChongMing is reducing. TABLE 2-9 CHANGE OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF RURAL EMPLOYMENT IN ALL DISTRICTS UNIT: 10 THOUSAND
JinShan ChongMing -0.011 -0.04239 -0.01112 -0.03607 -0.022 -0.07692
(Note: Data from the corresponding year of the "Shanghai Statistical Yearbook")
Table 2-8 illustrates the increment of the population density at different periods. PuDong which is among the “5 districts and one county” coastal area in Shanghai and BaoShan which is a suburb area in Shanghai are the areas where more people flooded in because of the decentralization of the central area and
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the low living cost. The growth rate of the population density in PuDong and BaoShan reached 17% and 64% respectively from 1999 to 2007. The number of the people who wants to move into the outskirts likes NanHui and FengXian is even larger with fast increase of population density because of the new construction of the new city and lower living cost. The growth rate of population density in NanHui and FengXian reached 7.8% and 2.2% respectively. The economic development level and the attractiveness of the employment of NanHui and FengXian is lower than those of PuDong and BaoShan because of the far distance to central area. Therefore, the population density of NanHui and FengXian is lower than PuDong and BaoShan. JinShan and FengXian belong to the outskirt areas in Shanghai. The population density of JinShan and ChongMing drops instead of increases because of excluding JinShan and ChongMing out of Shanghai economic development, their farther distance to central Shanghai and low employment attractiveness. The population density of JinShan and BaoShan presents tends to be negative. That means in the past 10 years, the total population of these two districts became fewer and fewer. The conclusion that intensified downward trend of JinShan and BaoShan can be drawn. The immigration of the population in ChongMing, in particular, are serious because of the inconvenience of the transportation and legging economic development. The growth rate of the population density from 1999 to 20007 is -7.7%.
Bao Pu Jin Shan Dong Shan Agriculture 0.81 1.67 7.14 2005 Industrial 6.3 17.99 15.01 Agriculture 0.39 0.68 4.34 2007 Industrial 6.87 16.31 18.21 Agriculture 0.37 0.62 3.7 2010 Industrial 6.91 13.75 18.96 (Note: Data from the corresponding year Statistical Yearbook") Year
Region
Nan Hui 12.92 26.29 11.12 28.15 11.38 25.84 of the
Feng Chong Xian Ming 5.46 14.7 13.85 18.56 4.71 13.95 14.93 18.83 4.54 13.66 15.96 18.72 "Shanghai Suburb
Meanwhile, the conclusion that the number of the rural employment of coastal areas who are devote
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themselves to agriculture is reducing while the number of the rural employment of coastal areas who are devote themselves to the secondary industry and tertiary industry like industry, construction and public transportation is growing rapidly can be drawn from table 2-9. Two sides information can be concluded here. (1) The population who move into the coastal area is non-agriculture population or non-agriculture production population (2) The agriculture-related employment of coastal rural areas shifts to the secondary industry or tertiary industry such as industry, construction and public transportation because of the urbanization. In terms of the basic requirement of education background toward the secondary industry and tertiary industry like industry and construction and the current condition of the rural labor force of coastal areas, especially those senior citizens, the population of moving to the coastal area and shifting to secondary and tertiary industry must be those teenagers with certain education level and professional skills. TABLE 2-10 THE INDUSTRY DISTRIBUTION FOR IMMIGRANTS WHO MOVE
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the immigrants flowing to Shanghai and more suburb population flowing to non-agriculture coastal area are two main reasons resulting in the low proportion of the aging population. The outing of agriculture employment of coastal areas aggravates the aging population of the coastal areas. That means urban areas share more population dividend from the Shanghai’s immigrant population while the aging population of rural area becomes worse. Conclusion After concluding the previous analyses, comprehensive reasons including the development of social economic development, progress in scientific technology, the decline of the birth rate and migration of the population give rise to the aging population of central Shanghai higher than that of coastal area in suburb, outskirt and other regions outside Shanghai in order. The aging population rate in rural coastal area is higher than urban coastal area. The urban coastal area benefits from the population dividend brought by population immigration.
INTO SHANGHAI UNIT: 10 THOUSAND
Category
Total
15~34 35~64 Over 65 years old years old years old 208.03 75.26 0.99 8.44 2.27 0.06 0.98 0.54 0.02 28.47 10.89 0.10 15.94 2.85 0.02 12.71 6.62 0.15
Total 284.28 All professions 10.77 Institution staff 1.54 Commercial service staff 39.46 Catering service staff 18.81 Life service staff 19.49 Staff of agriculture and 20.74 11.15 9.42 0.17 farming Manufacturing staff 73.47 63.67 9.73 0.07 Construction staff 55.53 36.03 19.39 0.11 Operation staff 8.29 5.87 2.41 0.01 Recycled staff 4.51 2.45 2.00 0.07 Other 31.66 22.31 9.14 0.22 (Note: The date is extracted from the 6th census of Shanghai)
ď Ź The age structure of the population who move to the suburb The populations who move to the suburb are mainly between 20 to 59 years old. The proportion of immigrant population whose age are between 20-29, 30-39,40-49 and 50-59 are 19.5%, 12.6%, 27.7% and 16.8% respectively. People whose ages are between 20-29 are preparing for getting married and the shelters are eagerly needed. People whose ages are 30-39 years old are the period of getting more income and adding more family members and more living space is needed. People whose ages are 40-49 years old are the period getting success in his/her career and the most frequently to change the shelters [4]. Therefore,
The central Shanghai is aware of the disadvantage of the overpopulation which is earlier than the suburb area and outskirt because of its special history and politics background and close contact with many countries in trade so that the aging population rate of urban area is higher than that of suburb area and outskirt in turn. Therefore, the negative population growth rate appeared in central Shanghai, suburb and outskirt in order and the population growth rate is lower than average national growth rate, thus it becomes the source of the current aging population in coastal rural area in Shanghai. The main features of the cross-district migration and migration of external population are concluded as follows by occasion of the reform and opening up and the economic development. The population of central area tends to be saturated so that few people move to central Shanghai. PuDong New Area and BaoShan belong to suburb areas. Many immigrants move to outskirts like NanHui and FengXian for the gradually increasing living cost, easing development speed and the new developing policy though the city revamping, transportation and living cost especially the price of shelters are low at the beginning of the reform. Few people intend to move to JinShan and ChongMing because of their poor public transportation and economic conditions. From the perspective of age structure, most of them are youths. From the perspective of the occupation distribution for those
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immigrants, they are devoting themselves to the secondary industry, tertiary industry or non-agriculture. The agriculture employment is decreasing due to the urbanization. Therefore, aging population in rural coastal area is increasingly serious due to the emigration of the large number of population and urban coastal area will benefit more from the population dividend brought by population immigration. ChongMing is a special district where the aging rate is always in high level among the districts of Shanghai. That is because ChongMing is a suburb city which is far away from urban centers with poor economic development. In addition, the traffic between ChongMing and other districts is inconvenience because a river separate ChongMing from urban centers. Therefore the aging rate which caused by natural population growth rate is much lower than that of urban centers, suburban districts and other suburb districts before reform and opening up. As the change of reform and opening up policy as well as household registration system, the economic development has great improvement in urban centers. Meanwhile, the development gap between ChongMing and other districts became much more significant because the positioning of ChongMing was ecological island built by protecting environments in that time. Thus, the income level and living standard decreased greatly. Under such circumstance, there are few people from other cities or districts moving into ChongMing. Furthermore, many young labor forces with skills and culture quality immigrate from ChongMing through various ways. As a result, the population density decreases yearly, the proportion of senior citizens becomes higher and the higher so that aging population rate ultimately pop out. Coastal rural area and non-coastal rural area are all suburb areas in Shanghai before comparing them with single economic developing structure before introducing the reform and opening up policy. The economic development of rural coastal area depends on the resource of inland mostly. The ocean resource had little contribution to these districts. With the development of reform and opening up policy, more and more immigrants flood to Shanghai. The resource shortage of Shanghai shows up and then it constrains the economic development greatly. In this time, the investment and improvement of Pudong WaiGaoQiao port area, PuDong international airport and BaoShan port push forward the economic development of these two districts. Then the constriction of Nanhui
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YangShan deep-water port and LinGang New city also makes a huge push to the NanHui’s economic development. And JinShan tourism resorts push forward the economic development of JinShan as well. The utilization of ocean resource has not been applied in FengXian and ChongMing so that the economic development is still at the bottom of coastal area. For the increasing intensity of marine resource utilization, there is still big room for the economic development in coastal areas. And the shortage of high-level talents is still significant. Thus, the aging rate of coastal areas will be higher than national average level but lower than that of the central area in a short time. However, when the populations of coastal areas are saturated, the aging rate of rural coastal areas will be so high that it will do harm to the production of Shanghai’s agriculture. Furthermore, the aging rate will worsen the social economic development greatly when the population dividend disappears. So the aging rate problem needs to be solved as soon as possible. ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The study was collaboratively supported by social science fund of ShangHai and “085project”of Education Committee of ShangHai. The number of the project is 2009JG023-BJB210. The reason the study cited data of 2010 was mainly that the dated from 6th census of population was very authority. REFERENCE
Chen XinDe etc, Pension: policy and practice[M], Beijing, Peking University Press,2010:17-21. Gao
XiangDong,
etc,
Suburbanization
of
Shanghai’s
population and its tendency[J], Journal of East Normal University (Social Science Edition), 2003(3): 118-122 Marine information center of SOA, China Marine Statistic Yearbook, Beijing, Ocean Publication, 2009: 20-21. Wang GuiXing, etc, Study on emigration of Shanghai’s population and its redistribution[J], Population Study, 2010(1): 59-62. Zhang XiaoLi earned her master’s degree in mathematics from XinJiang University in 1995 and a PhD in econometrics from South West Traffic University in 2007. She is a professor and vice- director of the Center for Ocean Economy at Shanghai Ocean University. Her
International Journal of Sociology Study Volume 2, 2014
main areas of research are econometrics, environmental economics, industrial economics, and ocean economics. She
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is currently a visiting scholar at the Center for the Blue Economy at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.
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