www.ijep.org International Journal of Energy and Power (IJEP) Volume 4, 2015 doi: 10.14355/ijep.2015.04.016
A Committee of Machine Learning Techniques for Load Forecasting in a Smart Grid Environment G. Sideratos*1,2, A. Ikonomopoulos1 and N. D. Hatziargyriou2 Institute of Nuclear & Radiological Sciences & Technology, Energy & Safety, National Center for Scientific Research “DEMOKRITOS”, 15310, Aghia Paraskevi, Attiki, Greece 1
National Technical University of Athens, 15773, Zografou, Attiki, Greece
2 *
Email: sideratos@ipta.demokritos.gr; joesider@power.ece.ntua.gr
Abstract Interoperability and adaptability form the core requirements of efficient smart grid operation. Meeting these requirements mandates load forecasting models employed in a smart grid environment to be self‐tuned and capable of capturing all customer idiosyncrasies. In that direction, the applicability of an expert committee as a load forecaster is examined under the prism of accurate short‐term prognosis in a smart grid implementation. The independent methods are intertwined in a load forecasting model structure that is a priori parameterized without the application of optimality criteria. The proposed model structure consists of four prediction units (PUs) and a combination unit (CU). The PUs provide independent forecasts processing diverse inputs through different predictors. An artificial intelligence implementation has been devised to combine these forecasts at the CU. The performance of the proposed expert committee when used for an actual load time series forecast obtained from a HV/MV substation located in a city neighborhood is illustrated. Four different machine learning architectures of the proposed load forecasting blueprint are devised and the results obtained are compared and discussed. Keywords Load Forecasting; Smart Grid; Generalized Linear Models; Gaussian Processes; Multilayer Perceptrons; Random Forests
Introduction Integration of distributed generation, primarily from rooftop PV installations, along with the incorporation of new loads, like electric vehicles and heat pumps impose requirements for novel monitoring and control functionalities at the MV level of the distribution system [1‐3]. Among these functionalities, load forecasting at the distribution level becomes extremely important in operating the system in a secure way providing high quality of energy supply at the lowest cost [4]. At lower voltage levels, accurate load forecasting becomes more difficult because the smoothing effect of the diverse number of consumers is naturally reduced. Moreover, the actual consumption might be unknown or difficult to measure, in case consumers use in‐house distributed generation to satisfy their consumption under a net‐metering scheme. In a smart grid environment, distribution networks become active and distribution system operators (DSOs) are responsible for the operation of their local networks. Load forecasting is a vital tool for them in order to operate the system efficiently and respond to the needs of the transmission system for congestion management, ancillary services provision, etc. Load forecasting is also crucial for retailers in order to schedule their participation in local markets, service providers and other stakeholders dealing with demand‐side management, storage scheduling and operation, etc. Finally, load predictions are expected to benefit the active consumer who wants to understand the electricity demand‐cost relationship and adopt electricity utilization patterns according to prices [5‐7]. The requirements for accurate forecasting at the distribution level posed by DSOs, the push for energy efficiency functionalities along with the growing customer awareness on energy consumption guide forecasters in trying to improve their models, as existing tools do not always perform at a satisfactory level [8]. At lower voltages, the load time series dynamics are influenced by the customer types and load forecasting models should be automatically adapted in a short time with low computational power and a limited amount of data [9‐10]. Researchers and
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