Analysis on the Drivers Behind the “EU/CA: Strategy for a New Partnership”

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International Journal of Sociology Study Volume 2, 2014

Analysis on the Drivers Behind the “EU/CA: Strategy for a New Partnership” Cuicui Ma *1, Qinlin Bu2 International Exchange and Cooperation Department, Hubei University of Chinese Medicine.

ADD: No.1 Western Road, Huangjiahu, Hongshan District, Wuhan City, Hubei, China. *1mc88346669@163.com; 2bql972@126.com Abstract Before 1991, the Central Asian states were the peripheral and backward zones of Soviet Union, and they also did not play an important role in the Cold War. However, with the collapse of Soviet Union in 1990s, the “heart zone” of the world was divided into “vacuum” as well as the re-discovery of the energy resources of the Caspian Sea, which not only attracted lots of international oil companies, but also drew the attention of big powers. Therefore, under the stimulate of geopolitical interests, the Central Asian region became the “Chess Board” for multi-lateral players; under the stimulate of geo-economic interest, the Caspian Sea-Central Asia has evolved into a “battle without smoke” for the big powers to fight for energy resources. Besides, Central Asia, itself, emerged as a conflict area, such as the violent clashes erupted between ethnic groups in the region's Fergana Valley. Corrupted political and economic reform, soaring social problems nurtured the radical groups and provided fertile ground for the foreign Islamic networks, and militant organizations like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). With the eruption of “9.11” events in 2001 and the spread of terrorist organizations operating in Afghanistan, the status of Central Asia was greatly improved in the global strategy of US, and further triggered the “dark war” fighting for the power vacuum in the scope of the whole world.

As for EU, Central Asia means a brand-new area standing in the eastern part of EU after collapse of Eastern European socialism in 1989 and the dissolution of Soviet Union. The power vacuum and ideological vacuum promoted some member states of EU (mainly for the Germany) shifting their attention to the newly born Central Asian countries. The thesis sets the European Union and Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership as background to analyze the drivers of the New Strategy from two perspectives--EU and Central Asia and three dimensions-- countries, region and world.

KeyWords New Strategy; Drivers; EU; CA Countries

The connections between EU and CA states have enjoyed a long history since the establishment of the trade line “silk road”. After the Cold War, EU began to

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give priority to the CA region under the overall climate the international relations and the interactive relations. The collapse of socialism system in Eastern Europe in 1989 and the final disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991 made the brand new CA states rising in the eastern part of EU. The power vacuum and the ideological vacuum promoted some EU member states swiftly changing their attention to the newly born CA states which were the republics of Former Soviet Union to encourage their development of democracy and market economy. From 2001 to 2006, the EU has increasingly enhanced the bilateral relations with the CA relations. Prior to 2007, the development of bilateral relations is mainly demonstrated in the following aspects: the first aspect is the Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States (TACIS), which centered on promoting market economy and strengthening democracy and role of law; the second aspect is the Partnership and Cooperation Agreements (PCAs), which centered on the cooperation modes and cooperation contents between EU and CA states; the third aspect is the adoption of Strategy Paper for Central Asia for Assistance 2002-2006, which made the EU’s CA regional strategy more influential; the fourth aspect is the designation of EU Special Representative (EUSR) in Central Asian states, which means EU was paying more and more attention to CA issues. Along the track, the bilateral relations between EU and CA states have got stable improvements.

And then, the evolvement of EU/CA relations from the Cold War to 2006 has laid solid foundation for the birth of New Strategy in 2007. The New Strategy symbolizes the EU has become an independent power in the stage of CA Game. And then, the influence of EU has improved in Central Asian region. Besides the historical accumulation, the thesis will illustrate the drivers of the New Strategy from the perspectives of EU and Central Asia.

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The Drivers of EU’s Strategic Interests

The Motivation of Energy Factor

The Motivation of Geopolitical Situation

Another important reason for the birth of New Strategy is the existence of oil and gas in the CA states.

Before the New Strategy, the gas crisis between Russia and Ukraine directly cut off the gas supply to the EU in January 2006. Since one quarter of EU’s gas consumption depends on Russia and 80 percent of pipeline via Ukraine which indicates the serious energy situation in EU and stimulate EU turn its attention to Central Asia. After that, EU considers the CA states as an effective approach to realize the diversification of energy supply. Therefore, the substantial energy reserves of CA and the aim of diversification of trade partners and supply lines contribute to the energy security and supplementary demands of EU.

Since the independence of the five CA states in 1991, the “heart zone” of the world was smashed into five independent states and the power vacuum led to the fiercer and fiercer geopolitical contend in the following years. The primitive gamers in this region were Russia and USA, and then the international powers, such as China, Islam World, India and EU, etc. following and entering into Central Asia. On the grand chess board, in order to occupy the strategic favorable position, the multilateral gamers seek for a piece of “cake” in this region. Facing the complex competitive situation, EU’s strategic interests in this region raises and becomes clearer; this drives the intensified connections between EU and CA states, especially in promoting democracy, human rights and market economy. In order to get a favorable position in this chess board and contend with other gamers, EU quickens its pace into the game.

Next, EU has realized that the regional cooperation among the CA states and the trans-regional cooperation between EU and CA states become an effective approach to promote Central Asian security, stability and sustainable development. From the historical perspective of EU, the cooperation mode of EU has been proved to be successful, especially after the World War Ⅱ. Furthermore, the EU model also plays effective role in the post-socialism states in middle-east Europe. Therefore, EU acts as a teacher in Central Asia to impart its experiences so as to manifest its status and image in the international stage. Besides, the eastern enlargement of EU has changed the interest identification and its function in the world issues.

Looking back the evolution of EU, the number of its member states has grown to be 27 from 12, which means the external relations extend to the further eastern areas. With the development of strategic partnership between EU and Russia, EU has considered the Caucasia and Black Sea under the scope of its neighborhood policy. Therefore, another identity of CA-“neighbor’s neighbor” of EU has got much attention of EU. Moreover, since the promotion of geo-political factor, the progress of eastern enlargement of EU as well as the birth of Lisbon Treaty provided an institutional guarantee for the new role—international actor of EU in the international stage. The author takes the opinion that the increasing connections between EU and CA states are related to the role change.

As for the concrete energy reserves of the CA states, especially for the Kazakhstan, it is the most economic powerful state among the five CA states. In the recent years, the stable economic development and macro-economic regulation and control have laid solid foundation for the successful economic reform. More importantly, Kazakhstan is rich in energy resources, such as oil and gas etc. the ideal geographic conditions and economic benefits are also its unique advantages.

The overall reserves of the oil, gas and coal reach 13 billion tons, which is ranked in top 10. Added Kazakhstan is situated in the Central part of the Eurasian Continent, as well as owns the harbor to the sea and about 1894km costal line along the Caspian Sea. Therefore, after the rediscovery of the oil and gas resources in the Caspian Sea, the strategic status is improved greatly. Another important country in energy reserves is Turkmenistan, who enjoys the reputation of leading power in the production of oil and gas. Historically speaking, Turkmenistan was one of the four oil producing country in the Soviet Union Area. According to the data, the gas reserves in Turkmenistan are about 2.4 billion m3 ranking at the third in the world. And the oil reserves are about 12 billion tons.

Given the increasingly exhaustion of energy resources in Western Europe and Northern Sea, the stable supply of the strategic resources is becoming more and more urgent for the EU’s sustainable economic development. Meanwhile, the “neighbor’s neighbor”— CA states stimulates the strategy. Therefore, the tremendous energy reserves and its vital geopolitical situations have attracted the attention of the EU.

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The Motivation of Security Factor Till 2007, the Afghanistan War was still severe. For the CA states, they are the neighbors the Afghanistan, so they can be considered as the most important logistic guarantee; furthermore, the military bases in CA such as Termiz Base and Dushanbe Base can provide supply for the action in Afghanistan. For the EU member states who are in the war, the peace-keeping mission in CA is necessary; furthermore, the CA states have evolved into the “neighbor’s neighbor” of EU, the security situation in Afghanistan and CA states are critical for the overall interests of EU. For the EU member states that are not in the war, the security situation in this region is also quite important. The unstable situation in Afghanistan and CA has the characteristics of randomness and spillover effect, which suggest all the member states enjoy a common interest in managing the existing and potential security problems. Besides, the common threats such as smuggling activities (weapons and drugs), organized crimes and illegal immigrants, etc. will greatly increase the danger of overall EU. Therefore, enhancing the contacts with CA states so as to promote the stability of Afghanistan is also an important component of EU’s security strategy.

According to the European Union and Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership, the EU has a strong interest in a peaceful, democratic and economically prosperous Central Asia. The above mentioned aims are interrelated, and peace is the premise of further development. In another words, security is the fundamental mission to safeguard EU’s neighboring environment as well as guarantee the peace and prosperity of the neighboring states. Since the independence of the five CA states, the EU’s Central Asian strategy began to bud and constantly developed, which is closely related to the EU’s vital interests. The birth of the New Strategy is also the result of various partnership cooperation agreements between EU and CA states and EU’s assistance programmes. The New Strategy points that “the strategy is based upon common interests of the EU and the states of Central Asia”. As a matter of fact, the increasing challenges in political, economic as well as in trans-regional issues do have direct and indirect effects on the interests of EU. Furthermore, with the development of enlargement of EU, the geographic distance between EU and CA states are greatly narrowed. All of the changing security situations need the long-term vision to handle the potential problems and realize common development.

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Based on the above considerations, the EU firmly believes that strengthening assistance in the fields of the role of law, human rights, democratic values and market economy will encourage the security and stability of the CA states, which also can make the CA states reliable partners for the EU. The Motivation of Great Power One of the distinct characteristics of the New Strategy is that the document has been motivated by the Council. Since 1974, the council has played a fundamental role in the progress of EU integration.

The council provides political guidance and impetus, makes the vital decisions and plays a key role in amending treaties, etc. The essence of the Council includes: a limited number of political figures, headed by the chief executives of all member states, meeting in a closed room with no assistants. The president is rotated by the member states and the presidential term is half a year. In 2007, with the development of geopolitical situation, Germany held the rotating president of the EU. According to the essence of the Council, the rotating president who takes the position will be in a strong position in amending treaties and making decisions. While, as one of the most influential member states within EU, Germany realized the importance of Central Asia in the contemporary world, especially after German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s visiting to the five CA states. Therefore, taking the historical opportunity, Germany successfully promoted the update of the Central Asian Regional Strategy Paper.

Besides, an effective CA strategy concerns to the common interest of EU, so there is little objections among the member states, which created conditions for the birth of the strategy paper. Furthermore, the cooperation among the rotating presidency—Germany, EUSR and the commissioner for External Relations constituted the Troika, which directly promoted the consensus of New Strategy between EU and CA states.

As mentioned, energy factor and security factor are critical elements influencing the bilateral relations; meanwhile, the European Council also pays more attention to CA Strategy and confirms the importance of CA. Under the comprehensive considerations of energy interest, strategic interest and the driving force of Germany, the EU will never give up the CIS. On the contrary, the EU firmly defines the CIS as its “eastern partnership states” so as to enhance economic, political

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and security contacts via extensive engagement strategy. The birth of the New Strategy declared that EU has become the formal gamer in the chessboard of CA. The CA States’ Choice for Development The Geographic Factor According to general definition in the academic circle, the thesis sets “five states of CA” as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.

From the perspective of geographic location, the CA states lie in the deep interior of Eurasian continent and connect the western and eastern cultures. However, they are far from the ocean without natural harbor to the sea. Some scholar measured and calculated that the distance of the CA’s nearest harbor to the sea to the west (Persian Gulf) is 1500 km; to the west (East China Sea) is 5500 km. (see chart 1) However, in the contemporary world, if a country without a harbor to the sea, the scope of its external relations will be greatly limited. Looking the whole world, all the strong powers in this world are not closed and landlocked. Furthermore, the terrain in the region is complex with mountains and deserts. For example, Kazakhstan is the state who crosses the European and Asian continents with numerous nationalities.

Historically speaking, Central Asia has been the “bridge” between Europe and Asia and its culture has specialty and diversity. Therefore, participating in the European issues is benefit to show their importance in the aspect of geopolitics.

CHART 1: THE GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION OF CA

Source：Cristina Diaz and Nikita Golubchenko (2011):Central Asia’s Energy Bazaar.

Taking Fergana Valley for example, under the condition of long-term land lock, the local people’s opinions and understandings towards the situation of external world are seriously constrained. Meanwhile, the backward thinking and outlook lead to lagging economic development and fewer opportunities of

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employment. And then, the abundant unemployed people and relatively deficient factories, etc. further increase the number of idle people in the street, which form a vicious circle for the society. In a word, the undeveloped economy and abundant unemployment become and intensify the potential danger for the social instability.

From the perspective of geo-security, the external neighboring environment of CA is full of unstable factors. The ethnic conflicts in the western part of Caucasia, the turmoil in the south-western part of Middle-East, the wars in the southern part of Afghanistan and the confront between India and Pakistan, etc. form the circling unstable neighboring environment, which are directly influencing the stability and security of CA, especially the security situation in Afghanistan. For another thing, the CA itself is unstable in its political situation facing the direct and indirect threats both from domestic separatism, terrorism and regional extremis, and from external “three evil forces” (mainly from Afghanistan).

Borrowing the special surroundings of mountains and deserts in CA, this region has become fertile soil to breed and hide the domestic and foreign terrorist organizations. Besides, the loose border areas, unstable surroundings, lagging economic development and strategically important geographic location make CA become disaster area of non-traditional security threats such as smugglings of drug and weapons.

However, since the CA states are newly independent countries, the defense capability is limited so that they have to depend on the external powers to keep national security and social stability. The CA states gain military assistance and military communication via military and security cooperation with various countries and international organizations so as to improve the capability of troops and border defense.

As Kassymjomart Kemelevich Tokaev, the former foreign minister of Kazakhstan stated, “Situated between the crack between Europe and Asia, Kazakhstan is willing to establish a harmonious and friendly neighboring region under the principle of ensuring security, respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity”. Therefore, under the severe security situation, added the strong powers’ suppress, especially USA and Russia, the peaceful strength--EU become the target that the CA states favor to develop further relations.

Beside, another important factor that is influencing the CA states’ external relations is the geo-economic factor.

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The CA region is rich in energy reserves, which is considered as the important asset to keep independence and maintain state sovereignty. From the historical perspective, the five CA states were economic backward region and peripheral zone within the Soviet Union. After their independence, long-term economic crisis and turbulence, deficient capital and technology make the CA states cannot devote themselves to energy and natural resources’ exploration and exploitation. Therefore, the abundant energy and natural resources have to borrow the neighbors’ power to be transported into the global market via the way of pipelines. Under the conditions, the CA states not only lose plenty of economic benefits, but also the political lever of the energy exporter will be under the control of countries the pipelines pass by.

Facing the dilemma, the CA states need the investment and assistance of foreign funds from Europe, USA and China. Even if the investing behaviors of foreign investors are from their own strategic interests, but for the CA states, it seems that the unique geological conditions not only can attract the Game among multilateral players, but also may increase the weight of counterbalance in the regional issues. Before the engagement of EU, Central Asia is the trilateral Game among USA, Russia and China; but after the actively absorbing into the EU, it not only means the increase of gamers on the chessboard, but also suggests the probabilities of distracting the multilateral interests and making use of the contradictions among the parties. Consequently, the CA states will realize the benefits maximization.

Therefore, the following conclusions can be got after the analysis of CA’s geographic factors. Considering the neighbors of CA, the five states are encircled by different pressures and forces, which makes the CA states lack of necessary exterior environment and intensify the trend of turmoil and backwardness of this region. Adding the CA possess the important geographic asset—energy, under the dilemma of multilateral Game, they have to develop themselves vigorously. Besides they also need the assistance of outer powers, introduce multilateral mechanism so as to balance the multilateral powers, which is an unavoidable shortcut to integrate into the modern international community. Therefore, it’s reasonable to actively develop the bilateral relations with the EU. All in all, under the pressure of multilayer security threats, the positive EU-CA states relations not only can provide capital and technology and assistance to combat terrorism, but also can get guidance in the

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progress of economic development. Meanwhile, they also can balance the influence of Russia and USA with the help of EU, which can be a wise plan to kill many birds with one stone.

The Opportunity of Multilateral Game About the strategic status of CA, H. J. Mackinder, one of the most famous British international politicians stated in his Heartland Theory (H. J. Mackinder 1996), Central Asia is situated at the heart of Eurasia with significant geopolitical status, which makes the CA an arena in the global community. He considered the CA as “World Island” who governed the whole world.

Naturally, the five CA states situated in the “heart zone” have attracted the attention of the great powers.

Moreover, the former American security affairs advisor and the famous strategist--Zbigniew Brzezinski compared the CA with a grand chessboard in his famous work the Grand Chessboard. The CA is the central part of this chessboard. If the players would like to occupy the advantageous position and win the Game, they have to proceed grand game. In essence, the multilateral game is both advantageous and disadvantageous for the CA states. For a weak but vital functioning chessman, multilateral game can play an ingenious role in balancing the different players.

The more the players join in, the easier the CA states get maximized benefit in the complex game, because more interest conflicts will be easily exposed. Under the conditions, the CA states can balance the multilateral gamers more easily so as to promote their voice and initiative. In the following part, the thesis will analyze from the aspects of main gamers: From the perspective of USA, Zbigniew Brzezinski points in his works the Grand Chessboard that he considers the Eurasian Continent from Lisbon to Vladivostok as a geo-strategic grand chessboard. The chessboard not only decides the prosperity and stability of the future world, but also is the central stage that determines the leading position of USA. The extensive global investment in the opening Caspian Sea and CA region does benefit the stability of this region, but also coincides with the strategic interest of United States. Therefore, the main interest orientations of United States can be analyzed as following: firstly, the USA’s CA strategy corresponds with the geopolitical interest of America, which can contain the influence of Russia to the north, suppress China to the east, and squeeze Iran to the south. From this aspect, the engagement of USA in CA is one of the important pillars for its global strategy. Secondly, the CA strategy

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accords with the economic interest for the development of USA, because the energy in Caspian Sea and Central Asian region is the essential guarantee for its long-term development. Thirdly, the strategy fits for the security interest of United States.

Combating the terrorism, preventing the “Afghanisation” in CA and reducing the terroristic organizations in the transiting peripheral areas so as to protect the homeland security in USA and keep regional security.

From the perspective of Russia, Central Asia has been the “Backyard” and “strategic buffer” of Russia. As a part of Former Soviet Union, the traditional contacts between Russia and CA made Russia occupy the leading position is CA region. Even though the five CA states have gotten rid of Soviet Union and have gained independence, but they are still under the influence of Russia. At present, there are similarities of interest concerns in CA region between Russia and USA. Firstly, Russian CA strategy fits for the security interest of Russia, which can prevent the non-traditional security threats such as CA Islam Movement, terrorism and the drug smugglings, etc.

Secondly, the CA strategy of Russia is the need of its energy development strategy. Obtaining the dominance position in gas production and export of CA can expand the gas market to the Europe and Asia.

Thirdly, the strategy accords with commercial interests of Russia. Restoring the infrastructure and communication facilities can expand and consolidate the Russian market to the CA- Iran- Pakistan- India trade line.

From the perspective of EU, its interests in CA states have mentioned in the above chapter and mainly refer to the geopolitical interest, energy interest and security interest. After the comprehensive analysis, the multilateral gamers’ interests in CA mainly concentrate on geopolitical interest, energy interest and security interest, among which the security field is the common interest for the gamers. So the CA states have little room to distract the gamers’ attention.

However, there are divergences among the multilateral strategic gamers in the fields of geopolitics and energy, and all of them hope get maximized interests, which, on the contrary, provide containing levers to balance the multilateral powers. The more the gamers in the game, the more probabilities the CA states realize their political and economic interests via containing strategy. Therefore, located among the “crack”, it’s wise to utilize the idea of “balance and

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multilateral”. Further, the capital, technology and experience the EU can provide are necessary for their development, so accepting the engagement of EU is reasonable. Still, if orienting to certain great power and ignoring cooperation with other powers will destroy the regional security and balance, which does harm to multilateral development. From the aspects, besides the challenges, the multilateral game also means opportunity for the CA states. How to utilize the lever is of great significance of the future development of CA states.

Conclusion The New Strategy provides an overall framework for the EU’s regional policy in CA. As stated in the New Strategy, “The EU has a strong interest in a peaceful, democratic and economically prosperous Central Asia”. Since the adoption of the New Strategy, the bilateral relations between the CA states and EU have got new evolved in the fields of politics, economy, cultural education and security. However, after research on the conditions of assistance and cooperation on the above fields, the bilateral relations are limited at certain degree, or “moderate” development. Because of the multiple dilemmas, the EU still does not possess enough strength to develop a long-term and effective CA strategy, there will be no substantial achievements on the bilateral relations.

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